politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The results so far have developed not necessarily to Remain
Comments
-
Greenwich is a big result for Leave if it's as reported.another_richard said:
London's also very split between inner and outer.SouthamObserver said:
I think that's now out of the question. London will standalone. Look out for a very big Leave vote in Birmingham, for example.SeanT said:I think REMAIN will win this, but by the tiniest, tiniest majority.
Small enough for Cameron to resign.
Huge Leave win in Barking and Greenwich reported close.
Leave should win in Havering, Hillingdon, Bexley, Bromley and Sutton as well.0 -
Hammersmith and Fulham Remain 70% Leave 30%0
-
Hammersmith below par for Remain.0
-
You and Southam cancelled each other out.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Well I did manage to vote this afternoon.another_richard said:
Memo to self - must get postal vote in future
0 -
I'm hearing that Liverpool & Manchester might just save Cameron's bacon.
Oh the ironies of the Scousers & Mancs saving a Tory PM0 -
Gosport out
Blackpool out
Moray in0 -
-
Hammersmith about par. Pendle over 10 points ahead of par for leave.0
-
UK figures - Remain 50.9% Leave 49.1% now0
-
No.TheScreamingEagles said:I'm hearing that Liverpool & Manchester might just save Cameron's bacon.
Oh the ironies of the Scousers & Mancs saving a Tory PM0 -
Markets = John Snow.....SeanT said:Markets now *convinced* REMAIN will edge it
0 -
Depends on your definition of better!hunchman said:
Looks better than the 55-60% remain quoted earlierMarqueeMark said:Brum very close, edging remain.....
0 -
NEWHAM o_O ?:!IanB2 said:
I would expect Redbridge to be remain but not hugely so, Newham similaranother_richard said:0 -
Moray and Perth votes Remain0
-
I just do not understand where those projections came from. Doesn't anyone actually go out into the real world and look at what's happening?FrancisUrquhart said:Brum very close, narrowly to remain (according to Sky)
What happened to those predictions of 55-60 to remain.
0 -
Belfast North shown as 50-50 on BBC ticker0
-
NaiveFrancisUrquhart said:Asian on Sky talking about how British Asians feel discriminated against by EU over immigration rules.
Miliband was clearly anti-Austerity for a while. The press still helped to squash and caricature him as they have done with Monsieur Corbyn, and they're showing their influence again tonight.surbiton said:
Labour policy from now on has to be Anti-austerity. Enough of Blairite nonsense. The shadow cabinet can jump into the Serpentine. Otherwise, we will lose the Northern voters like we did in Central Scotland.rcs1000 said:
Does that include ones where Corbyn became PM?John_M said:
Remember the IMF and IFS reports. Consider the last twenty years. Are there any developed countries that are poorer now than then?williamglenn said:
I'm just making sure Mr Meeks doesn't have the monopoly on pomposity.taffys said:Britain has chosen to be the lab rat in a giant experiment, breaking with the course of Western history since WW2, and the people leading the charge seemingly have no idea of what is at stake.
Now come on sir. Look at that comment, and think how patronising it might sound. You do not have a monopoly on geopolitical analysis.
Seriously though, this is depressing, and it is an experiment...
I'm going to repeat 'nobody knows for sure' until I'm blue in the face. But we've had a wide range of models used to forecast Brexit; none lead to calamity.0 -
-
That rather different from your last 54/46 prediction.TheScreamingEagles said:I'm hearing that Liverpool & Manchester might just save Cameron's bacon.
Oh the ironies of the Scousers & Mancs saving a Tory PM0 -
Nuneaton incoming!0
-
Pendle is NW.KentRising said:Pendle YORKS - 63% leave
But that's another big Leave win in a heavily Asian area.
0 -
Latest Hanretty forecast: Leave 52.5%
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2016/jun/23/eu-referendum-result-live-counting-leave-remain-brain-in-europe0 -
Moray a few hundred votes from going Leave.0
-
Fascinating. Never seen a whole country commit suicide before. And looking at the results it's the pensioners and the wwc who are voting us out. Precisely the people who are most likely to suffer!0
-
Nuneaton Leave 2:10
-
Nuneaton Moment Redux0
-
Wait: you don't think we should come up with a solution that satisfies 70% of the population?Thrak said:
So you used them then. They will come for you if they so much as get an inkling of that,rcs1000 said:
I am a Leaver, and have been passionate about my views. They are shared by perhaps a third of the Leave side, and include Richard_T, Max, Casino, Cyclefree and others.Thrak said:
You just aren't listening to the voters, they will turn on you as an elite not clamping down on all migration. If you don't deliver this then there will be trouble.rcs1000 said:The problem with this whole debate has been that it has been about 51%, not 70%. There is a solution that would garner the support of 70% of the British people, and result in minimal economic impact from leaving:
EFTA/EEA, with compulsory health insurance for migrants. Just a small sum of - say - 2k/year would eliminate almost all non-skilled migration.
We need to come up with the solution that satisfies 70% of the population, not 51% of 51%.0 -
If the BBC thought it was the most likely place then they definitely need an orienteering exercise. With Labour forecast to be 66-34 Remain it should have been nailed on.tlg86 said:
The BBC did a piece there saying that it was the most likely place to vote Leave. In the end it did, but not by a huge amount.weejonnie said:Knowsley just split for Leave. That was 77.4% Labour.
0 -
Nuneaton goes out!0
-
Don't look at meMarqueeMark said:
Yep. Knife-edge. Asians voting Leave.....Floater said:Did Sky say Birmingham is expected to be JUST remain?
0 -
Nuneaton 46k vs 20ish out0
-
66% NUNEATON!0
-
Nuneaton massively better for LEAVE0
-
Sutton is 53.63 Remain on Andy's spreadsheet.rcs1000 said:
I'm hearing Sutton is neck and neck.another_richard said:
London's also very split between inner and outer.SouthamObserver said:
I think that's now out of the question. London will standalone. Look out for a very big Leave vote in Birmingham, for example.SeanT said:I think REMAIN will win this, but by the tiniest, tiniest majority.
Small enough for Cameron to resign.
Huge Leave win in Barking and Greenwich reported close.
Leave should win in Havering, Hillingdon, Bexley, Bromley and Sutton as well.
0 -
Mike's bellweather of Nuneaton votes Out by 2:1. It's Leave. Again.0
-
Nope, the Midlands will sink him.FrancisUrquhart said:
That rather different from your last 54/46 prediction.TheScreamingEagles said:I'm hearing that Liverpool & Manchester might just save Cameron's bacon.
Oh the ironies of the Scousers & Mancs saving a Tory PM
0 -
Corby Leave 64%0
-
This is from a Vote Leave sourceFrancisUrquhart said:
That rather different from your last 54/46 prediction.TheScreamingEagles said:I'm hearing that Liverpool & Manchester might just save Cameron's bacon.
Oh the ironies of the Scousers & Mancs saving a Tory PM0 -
Hanretty: chance of Remain winning = 0.03%0
-
I'm astonished that the results in so far don't provide a big enough sample to provide a pretty accurate projection. And yet the betting markets are still jumping up and down on every result.0
-
Pendle is Lancs!!!!another_richard said:
Pendle is NW.KentRising said:Pendle YORKS - 63% leave
But that's another big Leave win in a heavily Asian area.0 -
Clear pattern emerging here. How it all pans out in the end who knows.0
-
Wow that's unexpectedly close in Moray.0
-
I forget who said it earlier. But 'Little Englander' was a huge misjudgement. Let's keep repeating that.
Most of us know and like plenty of immigrants, are well travelled and well educated. It's "mass immigration", not "immigration" that causes the angst. Because of our daft welfare system, it's perceived as unfair.0 -
Corby 64% Leave
Northamptonshire firmly Leave tonight.0 -
I thought that would be Boston, and in the intro to its programme tonight I thought the BBC said the same?weejonnie said:
If the BBC thought it was the most likely place then they definitely need an orienteering exercise. With Labour forecast to be 66-34 Remain it should have been nailed on.tlg86 said:
The BBC did a piece there saying that it was the most likely place to vote Leave. In the end it did, but not by a huge amount.weejonnie said:Knowsley just split for Leave. That was 77.4% Labour.
0 -
Nuneaton OGH bellweather gone out by a lot0
-
I am 80% confident we'll be within 1.5% of 52% Leave. More than 55% is basically impossible, less than 48% ditto.AndyJS said:Latest Hanretty forecast: Leave 52.5%
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2016/jun/23/eu-referendum-result-live-counting-leave-remain-brain-in-europe0 -
I have been banging this drum since it was said.John_M said:I forget who said it earlier. But 'Little Englander' was a huge misjudgement. Let's keep repeating that.
Most of us know and like plenty of immigrants, are well travelled and well educated. It's "mass immigration", not "immigration" that causes the angst. Because of our daft welfare system, it's perceived as unfair.0 -
BTW We should re-iterate our thanks to AndyJS. He's produced an absolutely invaluable resource for us. Bravo!0
-
-
Louise Mensch's old seat...KentRising said:Corby 64% Leave
Northamptonshire firmly Leave tonight.0 -
You don't represent the people who you got onside to put you over the line. They are yours now and you have to accommodate them.Wanderer said:
I'm a voter myself. If we are leaving the EU I vote for EEA.Thrak said:
Well now you know what happens when voters don't believe you are listening. This was made into a referendum on immigration, so you can't now escape the consequences of that.Wanderer said:
I don't accept that. The referendum is on leaving the EU. All future options are there to be fought for.Thrak said:
Yes, EEA and acces to the single market are dead. The emergency measures taken need to be based on that.Richard_Nabavi said:
Agreed, but I think we'll get a political vacuum for quite a while. Not only will it be a vacuum in terms of personalities, even more seriously there will be a vacuum in terms of policy, because no homework was done and the Leave campaign jumped on any passing populist bandwagon. The only 100% clear thing about the outcome is that it's a vote against free movement of people. So that rules out the EEA option.SouthamObserver said:I'm afraid they have to. Cameron, Osborne and co are finished and need to go asap.
0 -
The Leaves have it!Mortimer said:66% NUNEATON!
0 -
Conwy votes Leave0
-
Dont think they will get that!!another_richard said:
Sutton is 53.63 Remain on Andy's spreadsheet.rcs1000 said:
I'm hearing Sutton is neck and neck.another_richard said:
London's also very split between inner and outer.SouthamObserver said:
I think that's now out of the question. London will standalone. Look out for a very big Leave vote in Birmingham, for example.SeanT said:I think REMAIN will win this, but by the tiniest, tiniest majority.
Small enough for Cameron to resign.
Huge Leave win in Barking and Greenwich reported close.
Leave should win in Havering, Hillingdon, Bexley, Bromley and Sutton as well.0 -
Slight underperformance for Remain in Hammersmith & Fulham, 70% vs 71%.0
-
No, the referendum is over. We have to do what is best for the entire nation now.Thrak said:
You don't represent the people who you got onside to put you over the line. They are yours now and you have to accommodate them.Wanderer said:
I'm a voter myself. If we are leaving the EU I vote for EEA.Thrak said:
Well now you know what happens when voters don't believe you are listening. This was made into a referendum on immigration, so you can't now escape the consequences of that.Wanderer said:
I don't accept that. The referendum is on leaving the EU. All future options are there to be fought for.Thrak said:
Yes, EEA and acces to the single market are dead. The emergency measures taken need to be based on that.Richard_Nabavi said:
Agreed, but I think we'll get a political vacuum for quite a while. Not only will it be a vacuum in terms of personalities, even more seriously there will be a vacuum in terms of policy, because no homework was done and the Leave campaign jumped on any passing populist bandwagon. The only 100% clear thing about the outcome is that it's a vote against free movement of people. So that rules out the EEA option.SouthamObserver said:I'm afraid they have to. Cameron, Osborne and co are finished and need to go asap.
0 -
London still looking ominous.0
-
Boris will look after the pensioners.Fenman said:Fascinating. Never seen a whole country commit suicide before. And looking at the results it's the pensioners and the wwc who are voting us out. Precisely the people who are most likely to suffer!
0 -
Next leader of Tories now on BBC
0 -
Uh-oh.FrancisUrquhart said:Asian on Sky talking about how British Asians feel discriminated against by EU over immigration rules.
In all the simplistic 'racism' wailing, its like someone overlooked this.0 -
Grimsby over 70% leave0
-
NE Lincs OUT0
-
25/1 available on leave 55-60%david_herdson said:Mike's bellweather of Nuneaton votes Out by 2:1. It's Leave. Again.
Completely completely crazy.
Never seen the markets so out of line.0 -
Agreed! No leaving now!Richard_Nabavi said:BTW We should re-iterate our thanks to AndyJS. He's produced an absolutely invaluable resource for us. Bravo!
0 -
Stroud REMAIN, 3% above par.0
-
Uttlesford narrowly votes Leave 51%. Most middle-class district in Essex.0
-
What about a solution that satisfies 60% of the population and enrages 40%? What's the threshold that you would say is good enough?rcs1000 said:
Wait: you don't think we should come up with a solution that satisfies 70% of the population?Thrak said:
So you used them then. They will come for you if they so much as get an inkling of that,rcs1000 said:
I am a Leaver, and have been passionate about my views. They are shared by perhaps a third of the Leave side, and include Richard_T, Max, Casino, Cyclefree and others.Thrak said:
You just aren't listening to the voters, they will turn on you as an elite not clamping down on all migration. If you don't deliver this then there will be trouble.rcs1000 said:The problem with this whole debate has been that it has been about 51%, not 70%. There is a solution that would garner the support of 70% of the British people, and result in minimal economic impact from leaving:
EFTA/EEA, with compulsory health insurance for migrants. Just a small sum of - say - 2k/year would eliminate almost all non-skilled migration.
We need to come up with the solution that satisfies 70% of the population, not 51% of 51%.0 -
No sure how they will explain if we do vote to Leave that immigration rules wont change in their favour....AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Uh-oh.FrancisUrquhart said:Asian on Sky talking about how British Asians feel discriminated against by EU over immigration rules.
In all the simplistic 'racism' wailing, its like someone overlooked this.0 -
I hope for OGH's sake he didn't vote LEAVE on a tactical basis to punish the government!0
-
Part of Pendle borough was originally in Yorkshire.hunchman said:
Pendle is Lancs!!!!another_richard said:
Pendle is NW.KentRising said:Pendle YORKS - 63% leave
But that's another big Leave win in a heavily Asian area.
0 -
Stroud Remain - first Middle England town.0
-
Have you been drinking?Thrak said:
You don't represent the people who you got onside to put you over the line. They are yours now and you have to accommodate them.Wanderer said:
I'm a voter myself. If we are leaving the EU I vote for EEA.Thrak said:
Well now you know what happens when voters don't believe you are listening. This was made into a referendum on immigration, so you can't now escape the consequences of that.Wanderer said:
I don't accept that. The referendum is on leaving the EU. All future options are there to be fought for.Thrak said:
Yes, EEA and acces to the single market are dead. The emergency measures taken need to be based on that.Richard_Nabavi said:
Agreed, but I think we'll get a political vacuum for quite a while. Not only will it be a vacuum in terms of personalities, even more seriously there will be a vacuum in terms of policy, because no homework was done and the Leave campaign jumped on any passing populist bandwagon. The only 100% clear thing about the outcome is that it's a vote against free movement of people. So that rules out the EEA option.SouthamObserver said:I'm afraid they have to. Cameron, Osborne and co are finished and need to go asap.
0 -
We'll cross that bridge when we get to it...FrancisUrquhart said:
No sure how they will explain if we do vote to Leave that immigration rules wont change in their favour....AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Uh-oh.FrancisUrquhart said:Asian on Sky talking about how British Asians feel discriminated against by EU over immigration rules.
In all the simplistic 'racism' wailing, its like someone overlooked this.
0 -
Remain is rapidly running out of Scottish councils to back it.0
-
Well it appears nowhere in Wales want to remain in the EU.0
-
Very sensible people.FrancisUrquhart said:Well it appears nowhere in Wales want to remain in the EU.
0 -
0
-
Newham is traditionally wwc but now with a very high BAME wc population - which indications from Birmingham and elsewhere suggests isn't breaking for remain as much as anticipated - plus a sprinkling of luxury flats along the river. I don't think as a whole it will be strongly remain.Pulpstar said:
NEWHAM o_O ?:!IanB2 said:
I would expect Redbridge to be remain but not hugely so, Newham similaranother_richard said:0 -
I DID say watch out for Commonwealth vote!AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Uh-oh.FrancisUrquhart said:Asian on Sky talking about how British Asians feel discriminated against by EU over immigration rules.
In all the simplistic 'racism' wailing, its like someone overlooked this.0 -
I reported this as anecdata some weeks ago.FrancisUrquhart said:Asian on Sky talking about how British Asians feel discriminated against by EU over immigration rules.
Though It will be pretty harsh rules for all migrants shortly.0 -
Harlow votes Leave0
-
what on earth is going on on betfair? Surely its lunacy for out to be 2.5 ? Or are there so many voters in Central London it could still be turned round?0
-
Surely Cardiff ?CornishBlue said:
Very sensible people.FrancisUrquhart said:Well it appears nowhere in Wales want to remain in the EU.
0 -
I don't represent any people. I'm not a politician.Thrak said:
You don't represent the people who you got onside to put you over the line. They are yours now and you have to accommodate them.Wanderer said:
I'm a voter myself. If we are leaving the EU I vote for EEA.Thrak said:
Well now you know what happens when voters don't believe you are listening. This was made into a referendum on immigration, so you can't now escape the consequences of that.Wanderer said:
I don't accept that. The referendum is on leaving the EU. All future options are there to be fought for.Thrak said:
Yes, EEA and acces to the single market are dead. The emergency measures taken need to be based on that.Richard_Nabavi said:
Agreed, but I think we'll get a political vacuum for quite a while. Not only will it be a vacuum in terms of personalities, even more seriously there will be a vacuum in terms of policy, because no homework was done and the Leave campaign jumped on any passing populist bandwagon. The only 100% clear thing about the outcome is that it's a vote against free movement of people. So that rules out the EEA option.SouthamObserver said:I'm afraid they have to. Cameron, Osborne and co are finished and need to go asap.
0 -
WATFORD LEAVE
Little Englanders on the march everywhere. What a crass statement that was by DC.0 -
Wales so far 55% out
England 55% out0 -
Ahem!!AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Uh-oh.FrancisUrquhart said:Asian on Sky talking about how British Asians feel discriminated against by EU over immigration rules.
In all the simplistic 'racism' wailing, its like someone overlooked this.
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/7446573765617377280 -
Pendle heavily Asian ?another_richard said:
Pendle is NW.KentRising said:Pendle YORKS - 63% leave
But that's another big Leave win in a heavily Asian area.0 -
Nuneaton and Bedworth: Reain beating par by almost 20%m from what I can see.0
