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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The results so far have developed not necessarily to Remain

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  • OUTOUT Posts: 569
    Is her Maj purring?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,458

    Sky News prediction for UK vote: LEAVE 56%

    Which is what my source at Remain texted me 10 mins ago.
  • GravitationGravitation Posts: 287
    RodCrosby said:

    Thrasher predicting 56% LEAVE!

    It needs to be a decisive result like that. 12 points would be huge. Something like 52-48 would mean the issue wasn't settled.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    St Helens massive LEAVE result in north west!

    Par spreadsheet: Remain 50.4%
    Actual Remain result: 41.98%
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,897
    RodCrosby said:

    Thrasher predicting 56% LEAVE!

    That would be absolutely enormous win for Leave. How?!?! :o
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    John_M said:

    taffys said:

    ''It is a historical low point for this country, made worse by the evident cluelessness as to what Leave actually want to do. There is nothing to discuss: it is a moral stain on the nation and I will have no part in pursuing this ugly and half-baked hobby horse.''

    Stunning grace under fire.

    I salute you sir!

    Adding that to my 'Magnanimous in victory, gracious in defeat' scrapbook :D
    And let the door smack your arse on the way out.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,611
    If it is LEAVE Trump will be arriving tomorrow and with very happy I expect
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    North Warwickshire...
  • CornishBlueCornishBlue Posts: 840
    RodCrosby said:

    Thrasher predicting 56% LEAVE!

    The narration is very pertinent:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m7wEUlpaYjY
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    "It's not a projection, it's a forecast"

    Eh?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,146
    The BBC just completely messed up an interview with Aaron Banks.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Some (eg Meeks but also others) have been suggesting that a Leave win shows our nation at its worst. That it shows us to be negative, small minded etc. The opposite is true. It shows us at our best, proud, positive and upbeat.

    The Remain campaign has run on pure fear and (self-)loathing. Some will today have voted Remain due to that fear, but the fact that a majority of the nation seems to have been confident enough in ourselves, confident enough in our ability, confident enough in our future to feel able to vote Leave. It makes me proud to be British.

    My grandparents generation weren't cowed by the blitz. We haven't been cowed by Fear.

    No, you've been seduced by xenophobia.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Thrasher saying what I told everyone an hour ago...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,611
    edited June 2016
    N Warwickshire votes Leave, 66%
  • BlueberryBlueberry Posts: 408
    Gary Lineker, Barry O’Bama, David Beckham, Jamie Oliver, Rio Ferdinand, Steven Hawking, John Curtiss …. your boys TOOK ONE HELL OF BEATING!!!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,835

    Some (eg Meeks but also others) have been suggesting that a Leave win shows our nation at its worst. That it shows us to be negative, small minded etc. The opposite is true. It shows us at our best, proud, positive and upbeat.

    The Remain campaign has run on pure fear and (self-)loathing. Some will today have voted Remain due to that fear, but the fact that a majority of the nation seems to have been confident enough in ourselves, confident enough in our ability, confident enough in our future to feel able to vote Leave. It makes me proud to be British.

    My grandparents generation weren't cowed by the blitz. We haven't been cowed by Fear.

    This is just drivel. Just you wait.....
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,114
    North WARKS!!!
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Bloody hell, thumping victory there.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,562
    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 15m15 minutes ago
    Wellingborough, #EUref result:
    Remain: 37.6% (15,462)
    Leave: 62.4% (25,679)

    Oh my God.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    OUT said:

    Is her Maj purring?

    Dave can hear it in person this time when he goes there to resign!
  • GravitationGravitation Posts: 287
    North Warwickshire.

    33% Remain
    Par was 40%
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,562
    (((Dan Hodges))) ‏@DPJHodges 2m2 minutes ago
    Greenwich council leader says "it's too close to call". Greenwich.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Mortimer said:

    SeanT said:

    This is the single most incredible electoral result of my lifetime.

    Also the most pleasing, and the most scary.

    I agree.

    I read Charles' moving, and beautifully written reasons for why he voted Leave earlier and knew I'd made the right decision. But I wasn't expecting the numbers looking to agree with it!
    NWarks 66% Leave too!
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,233
    edited June 2016
    If Jezza had stuck to his guns and signed Labour up to LEAVE he'd be on his way to becoming PM now. ;)
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Oxford:

    49,424 (70.3%)
    20,913 (29.7%)

    Par was 69.3%.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,960

    PlatoSaid said:

    We're fucked. All of us.

    Quite exciting though, even though many of us will lose our jobs and homes.

    It is exciting. Then you remember Johnson, Gove, Patel and co are going to takeover, and millions of ordinary punters are looking at significant damage to their livelihoods, and it becomes a lot less attractive.

    From my point of view it's not looking good for the economy, for society and cohesion, or the future of the UK as a unitary state. Still, the sun will still rise tomorrow morning, and it will still be summer.
    What total piffle - you mean The Establishment are going to lose.
    No, I think the ordinary working person will lose.
    Twas ever thus.
    Amen
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    Looks like we'll be playing the great escape theme tomorrow not ode to joy
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Oxford only on par
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    St Helens

    That is bedrock 100% labour territory. St Helens.

    Goodness.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,786
    New Phenomenon....the shy leaver...aka Little Englanders...aka closest racists...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,611
    Fareham votes Leave
  • GravitationGravitation Posts: 287

    (((Dan Hodges))) ‏@DPJHodges 2m2 minutes ago
    Greenwich council leader says "it's too close to call". Greenwich.

    That would be incredible. Remain should have won that 60-40
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Calling for Leave.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    HYUFD said:

    If it is LEAVE Trump will be arriving tomorrow and with very happy I expect

    He can borrow 'that poster' if he likes...
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Weird that we haven't had any results from London yet. Something to do with the rain?
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Shallow comment of the night: what's up with Theresa Villier's hair.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,752
    Even Oxford is much poorer for Remain than expected. Leave at 30 compared with expected 21%
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,542

    (((Dan Hodges))) ‏@DPJHodges 2m2 minutes ago
    Greenwich council leader says "it's too close to call". Greenwich.

    Sounds unlikely but there's still significant wwc in Eltham, Woolwich and Thamesmead.
  • RealBritainRealBritain Posts: 255

    Some (eg Meeks but also others) have been suggesting that a Leave win shows our nation at its worst. That it shows us to be negative, small minded etc. The opposite is true. It shows us at our best, proud, positive and upbeat.

    The Remain campaign has run on pure fear and (self-)loathing. Some will today have voted Remain due to that fear, but the fact that a majority of the nation seems to have been confident enough in ourselves, confident enough in our ability, confident enough in our future to feel able to vote Leave. It makes me proud to be British.

    My grandparents generation weren't cowed by the blitz. We haven't been cowed by Fear.

    I'm sorry, but this is an absurd simplification. A campaign including Farage's poster, and continual mention of "foreign criminals", by Gove, can very easily be accused of something other than positive, upbeat jollity. One type of fear has simply beaten another.
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    Incredible. Remain have been royally fucked.

    Tomorrow, despite the armageddon, it will be worth visiting the Twitter feeds of Andrew Cooper, Will Straw and Dan Hodges!
  • oldpoliticsoldpolitics Posts: 455
    alex. said:

    "It's not a projection, it's a forecast"

    Eh?

    Oh I know this one (if the person is using it accurately). A projection is a straight line extrapolation of currently available information, a forecast is the manipulation of known information through an interpretative process to extend it in time or space.
  • ThrakThrak Posts: 494

    At what time today does David Cameron announce his intention to resign?

    He really shouldn't. That would be the equivalent of Ed Miliband walking out after the 2015 election, only in this case instead of the Labour Party being left to fall into chaos, he would be leaving the country.

    Cameron caused this mess by misjudging the whole situation. The stakes are too high for him to walk away now and abdicate responsibility.
    He is more likely to announce his intention to stand down and start the election process, meanwhile Osborne will attempt to calm things with an emergency budget with co-operation from the leave team. It's probably the best they can do but it will still be chaotic.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,897
    I suppose their model has no London data. So surely that is a huge grey area for them?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,114
    Dreadful result for Remain in St Helens
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821

    I'm afraid they have to. Cameron, Osborne and co are finished and need to go asap.

    Agreed, but I think we'll get a political vacuum for quite a while. Not only will it be a vacuum in terms of personalities, even more seriously there will be a vacuum in terms of policy, because no homework was done and the Leave campaign jumped on any passing populist bandwagon. The only 100% clear thing about the outcome is that it's a vote against free movement of people. So that rules out the EEA option.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2016
    RobD said:

    I suppose their model has no London data. So surely that is a huge grey area for them?

    Par for London as a whole is 66%. Over 70% in a lot of places.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,460
    Britain has chosen to be the lab rat in a giant experiment, breaking with the course of Western history since WW2, and the people leading the charge seemingly have no idea of what is at stake.
  • LucyJonesLucyJones Posts: 651
    edited June 2016
    Off to bed, finally.

    Some (eg Meeks but also others) have been suggesting that a Leave win shows our nation at its worst. That it shows us to be negative, small minded etc. The opposite is true. It shows us at our best, proud, positive and upbeat.

    The Remain campaign has run on pure fear and (self-)loathing. Some will today have voted Remain due to that fear, but the fact that a majority of the nation seems to have been confident enough in ourselves, confident enough in our ability, confident enough in our future to feel able to vote Leave. It makes me proud to be British.

    My grandparents generation weren't cowed by the blitz. We haven't been cowed by Fear.

    Thanks.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,611
    Oxford Remain 70%
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    Stunning insights from the BBC. Apparently swingback might not have happened.
  • Blueberry said:

    Gary Lineker, Barry O’Bama, David Beckham, Jamie Oliver, Rio Ferdinand, Steven Hawking, John Curtiss …. your boys TOOK ONE HELL OF BEATING!!!

    So has the pound.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,603
    £ nearly lost 8c. :-0
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,786
    BBC / Sky pushing this narrative that it isn't just Leave doing better in "their" areas, Remain doing better in theirs....Fathead just said that about Oxford for Remain....I think we know better on here.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Scott_P said:

    @graemewearden: Futures market predicting a massive selloff -- FTSE 100 being called down 6% https://t.co/QhtxxuhyCk

    Unheard of... oh wait.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    taffys said:

    This People vs The Establishment is most amusing.

    The implications are huge. The global establishment threw everything....everything at this Ms Plato.

    And it looks like they are being beaten.

    Brendan O'Neill is ringing in my ears.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,699
    Thrak said:

    At what time today does David Cameron announce his intention to resign?

    He really shouldn't. That would be the equivalent of Ed Miliband walking out after the 2015 election, only in this case instead of the Labour Party being left to fall into chaos, he would be leaving the country.

    Cameron caused this mess by misjudging the whole situation. The stakes are too high for him to walk away now and abdicate responsibility.
    He is more likely to announce his intention to stand down and start the election process, meanwhile Osborne will attempt to calm things with an emergency budget with co-operation from the leave team. It's probably the best they can do but it will still be chaotic.
    No. Cameron needs to stay on for the immediate future. He does, however, need a major unifying reshuffle today. Promote leavers, Osborne out of the Treasury. Boris Party Chairman.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,630

    I'm afraid they have to. Cameron, Osborne and co are finished and need to go asap.

    Agreed, but I think we'll get a political vacuum for quite a while. Not only will it be a vacuum in terms of personalities, even more seriously there will be a vacuum in terms of policy, because no homework was done and the Leave campaign jumped on any passing populist bandwagon. The only 100% clear thing about the outcome is that it's a vote against free movement of people. So that rules out the EEA option.

    Yep - but Leave owns all of this. They just have to deliver.

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Greenwich too close to call? Supposed to be about 60% Remain.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    Some (eg Meeks but also others) have been suggesting that a Leave win shows our nation at its worst. That it shows us to be negative, small minded etc. The opposite is true. It shows us at our best, proud, positive and upbeat.

    The Remain campaign has run on pure fear and (self-)loathing. Some will today have voted Remain due to that fear, but the fact that a majority of the nation seems to have been confident enough in ourselves, confident enough in our ability, confident enough in our future to feel able to vote Leave. It makes me proud to be British.

    My grandparents generation weren't cowed by the blitz. We haven't been cowed by Fear.

    CLAPS
  • CornishBlueCornishBlue Posts: 840
    edited June 2016

    Britain has chosen to be the lab rat in a giant experiment, breaking with the course of Western history since WW2, and the people leading the charge seemingly have no idea of what is at stake.

    The same could have been said on the eve of the industrial revolution, or when we broke from the Papacy, or when we declared war on Germany in 1939.

    We are a revolutionary country.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820

    (((Dan Hodges))) ‏@DPJHodges 2m2 minutes ago
    Greenwich council leader says "it's too close to call". Greenwich.

    Greenwich should be 60-40 Remain.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Blueberry said:

    Gary Lineker, Barry O’Bama, David Beckham, Jamie Oliver, Rio Ferdinand, Steven Hawking, John Curtiss …. your boys TOOK ONE HELL OF BEATING!!!

    I was planning on doing one of these for Leavers but looks like I am denied that chance!

    Why do I lose every election?!?
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,843
    Is this the nail in the coffin on Project Fear? The SNP would be mad not to call indyref2 for as soon after Brexit as possible, when Scots will be most inclined to leave the UK. the economic arguments won't wash this time. Nicola should phrase the referendum as Scotland refusing to leave the EU and therefore requiring a separation from the rest of the UK
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Britain has chosen to be the lab rat in a giant experiment, breaking with the course of Western history since WW2, and the people leading the charge seemingly have no idea of what is at stake.

    Now come on sir. Look at that comment, and think how patronising it might sound. You do not have a monopoly on geopolitical analysis.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,897
    edited June 2016
    That Lambeth vote almost eliminated the Leave lead!

    Oh, right it was Lambeth+Exeter+Oxford
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,611
    Lambeth 79% Remain
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,611
    Exeter 55% Remain
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    University town Exeter 1% better for Remain than par.
  • pbr2013pbr2013 Posts: 649

    Britain has chosen to be the lab rat in a giant experiment, breaking with the course of Western history since WW2, and the people leading the charge seemingly have no idea of what is at stake.

    FFS have a word with yourself.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    HYUFD said:

    Oxford Remain 70%

    Stunningly out of touch with reality in the rest of the country!
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Lambeth overperforms for Remain there right?
  • Glasgow coming now.......
  • BlueberryBlueberry Posts: 408

    Blueberry said:

    Gary Lineker, Barry O’Bama, David Beckham, Jamie Oliver, Rio Ferdinand, Steven Hawking, John Curtiss …. your boys TOOK ONE HELL OF BEATING!!!

    So has the pound.
    Couldn't give a toss about the £. It'll be up again next week.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,786
    Freggles said:

    Blueberry said:

    Gary Lineker, Barry O’Bama, David Beckham, Jamie Oliver, Rio Ferdinand, Steven Hawking, John Curtiss …. your boys TOOK ONE HELL OF BEATING!!!

    I was planning on doing one of these for Leavers but looks like I am denied that chance!

    Why do I lose every election?!?
    Populus, YouGov, ORB, ICM, Survey Monkey.....your boys TOOK ONE HELL OF A BEATING (AGAIN) !!!!!
  • ThrakThrak Posts: 494
    edited June 2016

    I'm afraid they have to. Cameron, Osborne and co are finished and need to go asap.

    Agreed, but I think we'll get a political vacuum for quite a while. Not only will it be a vacuum in terms of personalities, even more seriously there will be a vacuum in terms of policy, because no homework was done and the Leave campaign jumped on any passing populist bandwagon. The only 100% clear thing about the outcome is that it's a vote against free movement of people. So that rules out the EEA option.
    Yes, EEA and access to the single market are dead. The emergency measures taken need to be based on that.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,114
    Freggles said:

    Lambeth overperforms for Remain there right?

    Yep - about 4.5%
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2016
    Glasgow:

    Remain 168,335 (66.6%)
    Leave 84,474 (33.4%)
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,562
    Rob Ford saying London has some "heavy lifting" to do to save the day.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,897
    Remain now in the lead!
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited June 2016
    And now that the campaign is over I can reveal why the pollsters got it wrong.

    The pollsters who got the result right last time still changed their methodology, they tried to fix something that was all right and they broke it.

    The pollsters who got things wrong last time tried to correct this, and they where bang on the Ref result last week, the problem is that they kept changing their methodology all the time, or they simply disregarded their polls and did forecasts instead.

    Populus was simply working for Remain so it's no surprise they publised those numbers.
    The Remain campaign knew that they where going to lose, that's why Cameron panicked and did that speech in front of No.10 .
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    Exeter above par for Remain.
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    Sky doing a bit on the forex - both channels really ought to have kept some biz/econ correspondents up all night to watch the markets in case something like this happened. The studio bods seem to struggle keeping up with the data coming in, especially above/below par, they might actually do better to watch the currency.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Lambeth better for Remain.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,458

    Freggles said:

    Blueberry said:

    Gary Lineker, Barry O’Bama, David Beckham, Jamie Oliver, Rio Ferdinand, Steven Hawking, John Curtiss …. your boys TOOK ONE HELL OF BEATING!!!

    I was planning on doing one of these for Leavers but looks like I am denied that chance!

    Why do I lose every election?!?
    Populus, YouGov, ORB, ICM, Survey Monkey.....your boys TOOK ONE HELL OF A BEATING (AGAIN) !!!!!
    ICM called it right, ditto TNS
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,114
    AndyJS said:

    University town Exeter 1% better for Remain than par.

    Oxford around 1% better.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,603
    Remain lead.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,023
    Scott_P said:

    @graemewearden: Futures market predicting a massive selloff -- FTSE 100 being called down 6% https://t.co/QhtxxuhyCk

    More interesting will be FTSE 250, as FTSE 100 is full of companies with international earnings that do better in the case of Brexit. We own Wolsely, for example, which is a big US Dollar earner.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,630

    We're fucked. All of us.

    Quite exciting though, even though many of us will lose our jobs and homes.

    It is exciting. Then you remember Johnson, Gove, Patel and co are going to takeover, and millions of ordinary punters are looking at significant damage to their livelihoods, and it becomes a lot less attractive.

    Unfortunately I think it's worse than that. It was completely clear from the campaign that they are not ready to take over, and haven't got the least clue even about the economic danger, let alone about a plan for dealing with it.

    I'm afraid they have to. Cameron, Osborne and co are finished and need to go asap.

    Well done SO - you got a prediction right at last!

    Actually, I'm on a roll. Next tip: buy shares in Betrayal.

  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Glasgow better for LEAVE
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,611
    Remain 50.7% Leave 49.3% nationally now
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Crossover again?
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Re-crossover. God knows why
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    Uncrossover caused by Lambeth?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,897

    Sky doing a bit on the forex - both channels really ought to have kept some biz/econ correspondents up all night to watch the markets in case something like this happened. The studio bods seem to struggle keeping up with the data coming in, especially above/below par, they might actually do better to watch the currency.

    The BBC has done that.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,116
    crossover back....come on
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    Leave drifting....bit odd
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Lambeth 79% Remain. Par was 75%.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Danny565 said:

    Shallow comment of the night: what's up with Theresa Villier's hair.

    Her parents watched Crystaltips and Alistair.
  • AndyJS said:

    Greenwich too close to call? Supposed to be about 60% Remain.

    Wow. My mind is blown, knew the North would vote out but the South is putting the boot in too.

    Am still reeling from Bury, tbh. Went to school there, its a stable and hardworking bit of Greater Manchester. My mum's generation are carrying this.
This discussion has been closed.