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  • Theuniondivvie
    Theuniondivvie Posts: 44,327
    https://twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/746149605138640897
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,802
    CornishBlue said:

    Sky News prediction for UK vote: LEAVE 56%

    Which is what my source at Remain texted me 10 mins ago.
  • Gravitation
    Gravitation Posts: 287
    RodCrosby said:

    Thrasher predicting 56% LEAVE!

    It needs to be a decisive result like that. 12 points would be huge. Something like 52-48 would mean the issue wasn't settled.
  • Freggles
    Freggles Posts: 3,487
    St Helens massive LEAVE result in north west!

    Par spreadsheet: Remain 50.4%
    Actual Remain result: 41.98%
  • PlatoSaid
    PlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    John_M said:

    taffys said:

    ''It is a historical low point for this country, made worse by the evident cluelessness as to what Leave actually want to do. There is nothing to discuss: it is a moral stain on the nation and I will have no part in pursuing this ugly and half-baked hobby horse.''

    Stunning grace under fire.

    I salute you sir!

    Adding that to my 'Magnanimous in victory, gracious in defeat' scrapbook :D
    And let the door smack your arse on the way out.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,608
    RodCrosby said:

    Thrasher predicting 56% LEAVE!

    That would be absolutely enormous win for Leave. How?!?! :o
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    If it is LEAVE Trump will be arriving tomorrow and with very happy I expect
  • Chameleon
    Chameleon Posts: 4,265
    North Warwickshire...
  • CornishBlue
    CornishBlue Posts: 840
    RodCrosby said:

    Thrasher predicting 56% LEAVE!

    The narration is very pertinent:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m7wEUlpaYjY
  • alex.
    alex. Posts: 4,658
    "It's not a projection, it's a forecast"

    Eh?
  • tlg86
    tlg86 Posts: 26,950
    The BBC just completely messed up an interview with Aaron Banks.
  • RodCrosby
    RodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Thrasher saying what I told everyone an hour ago...
  • AlastairMeeks
    AlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Some (eg Meeks but also others) have been suggesting that a Leave win shows our nation at its worst. That it shows us to be negative, small minded etc. The opposite is true. It shows us at our best, proud, positive and upbeat.

    The Remain campaign has run on pure fear and (self-)loathing. Some will today have voted Remain due to that fear, but the fact that a majority of the nation seems to have been confident enough in ourselves, confident enough in our ability, confident enough in our future to feel able to vote Leave. It makes me proud to be British.

    My grandparents generation weren't cowed by the blitz. We haven't been cowed by Fear.

    No, you've been seduced by xenophobia.
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    edited June 2016
    N Warwickshire votes Leave, 66%
  • Blueberry
    Blueberry Posts: 408
    Gary Lineker, Barry O’Bama, David Beckham, Jamie Oliver, Rio Ferdinand, Steven Hawking, John Curtiss …. your boys TOOK ONE HELL OF BEATING!!!
  • IanB2
    IanB2 Posts: 52,308
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Some (eg Meeks but also others) have been suggesting that a Leave win shows our nation at its worst. That it shows us to be negative, small minded etc. The opposite is true. It shows us at our best, proud, positive and upbeat.

    The Remain campaign has run on pure fear and (self-)loathing. Some will today have voted Remain due to that fear, but the fact that a majority of the nation seems to have been confident enough in ourselves, confident enough in our ability, confident enough in our future to feel able to vote Leave. It makes me proud to be British.

    My grandparents generation weren't cowed by the blitz. We haven't been cowed by Fear.

    This is just drivel. Just you wait.....
  • Mortimer
    Mortimer Posts: 14,229
    North WARKS!!!
  • Chameleon
    Chameleon Posts: 4,265
    Bloody hell, thumping victory there.
  • rottenborough
    rottenborough Posts: 66,859
    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 15m15 minutes ago
    Wellingborough, #EUref result:
    Remain: 37.6% (15,462)
    Leave: 62.4% (25,679)

    Oh my God.
  • Freggles
    Freggles Posts: 3,487
    OUT said:

    Is her Maj purring?

    Dave can hear it in person this time when he goes there to resign!
  • Gravitation
    Gravitation Posts: 287
    North Warwickshire.

    33% Remain
    Par was 40%
  • rottenborough
    rottenborough Posts: 66,859
    (((Dan Hodges))) ‏@DPJHodges 2m2 minutes ago
    Greenwich council leader says "it's too close to call". Greenwich.
  • PlatoSaid
    PlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Mortimer said:

    SeanT said:

    This is the single most incredible electoral result of my lifetime.

    Also the most pleasing, and the most scary.

    I agree.

    I read Charles' moving, and beautifully written reasons for why he voted Leave earlier and knew I'd made the right decision. But I wasn't expecting the numbers looking to agree with it!
    NWarks 66% Leave too!
  • GIN1138
    GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    edited June 2016
    If Jezza had stuck to his guns and signed Labour up to LEAVE he'd be on his way to becoming PM now. ;)
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Oxford:

    49,424 (70.3%)
    20,913 (29.7%)

    Par was 69.3%.
  • viewcode
    viewcode Posts: 25,199
    CornishBlue said:

    RealBritain said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    RealBritain said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Bob__Sykes said:

    We're fucked. All of us.

    Quite exciting though, even though many of us will lose our jobs and homes.

    It is exciting. Then you remember Johnson, Gove, Patel and co are going to takeover, and millions of ordinary punters are looking at significant damage to their livelihoods, and it becomes a lot less attractive.

    From my point of view it's not looking good for the economy, for society and cohesion, or the future of the UK as a unitary state. Still, the sun will still rise tomorrow morning, and it will still be summer.
    What total piffle - you mean The Establishment are going to lose.
    No, I think the ordinary working person will lose.
    Twas ever thus.
    Amen
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/edconwaysky/status/746150217121144832
  • kjohnw
    kjohnw Posts: 1,456
    Looks like we'll be playing the great escape theme tomorrow not ode to joy
  • Tissue_Price
    Tissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Oxford only on par
  • taffys
    taffys Posts: 9,753
    St Helens

    That is bedrock 100% labour territory. St Helens.

    Goodness.
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,722
    New Phenomenon....the shy leaver...aka Little Englanders...aka closest racists...
  • Gravitation
    Gravitation Posts: 287
    rottenborough said:

    (((Dan Hodges))) ‏@DPJHodges 2m2 minutes ago
    Greenwich council leader says "it's too close to call". Greenwich.

    That would be incredible. Remain should have won that 60-40
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    Fareham votes Leave
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    Calling for Leave.
  • RodCrosby
    RodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    HYUFD said:

    If it is LEAVE Trump will be arriving tomorrow and with very happy I expect

    He can borrow 'that poster' if he likes...
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Weird that we haven't had any results from London yet. Something to do with the rain?
  • Danny565
    Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Shallow comment of the night: what's up with Theresa Villier's hair.
  • DavidL
    DavidL Posts: 55,866
    Even Oxford is much poorer for Remain than expected. Leave at 30 compared with expected 21%
  • another_richard
    another_richard Posts: 27,927
    rottenborough said:

    (((Dan Hodges))) ‏@DPJHodges 2m2 minutes ago
    Greenwich council leader says "it's too close to call". Greenwich.

    Sounds unlikely but there's still significant wwc in Eltham, Woolwich and Thamesmead.
  • RealBritain
    RealBritain Posts: 255
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Some (eg Meeks but also others) have been suggesting that a Leave win shows our nation at its worst. That it shows us to be negative, small minded etc. The opposite is true. It shows us at our best, proud, positive and upbeat.

    The Remain campaign has run on pure fear and (self-)loathing. Some will today have voted Remain due to that fear, but the fact that a majority of the nation seems to have been confident enough in ourselves, confident enough in our ability, confident enough in our future to feel able to vote Leave. It makes me proud to be British.

    My grandparents generation weren't cowed by the blitz. We haven't been cowed by Fear.

    I'm sorry, but this is an absurd simplification. A campaign including Farage's poster, and continual mention of "foreign criminals", by Gove, can very easily be accused of something other than positive, upbeat jollity. One type of fear has simply beaten another.
  • Fenster
    Fenster Posts: 2,115
    Incredible. Remain have been royally fucked.

    Tomorrow, despite the armageddon, it will be worth visiting the Twitter feeds of Andrew Cooper, Will Straw and Dan Hodges!
  • oldpolitics
    oldpolitics Posts: 455
    alex. said:

    "It's not a projection, it's a forecast"

    Eh?

    Oh I know this one (if the person is using it accurately). A projection is a straight line extrapolation of currently available information, a forecast is the manipulation of known information through an interpretative process to extend it in time or space.
  • Thrak
    Thrak Posts: 494
    williamglenn said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    At what time today does David Cameron announce his intention to resign?

    He really shouldn't. That would be the equivalent of Ed Miliband walking out after the 2015 election, only in this case instead of the Labour Party being left to fall into chaos, he would be leaving the country.

    Cameron caused this mess by misjudging the whole situation. The stakes are too high for him to walk away now and abdicate responsibility.
    He is more likely to announce his intention to stand down and start the election process, meanwhile Osborne will attempt to calm things with an emergency budget with co-operation from the leave team. It's probably the best they can do but it will still be chaotic.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,608
    I suppose their model has no London data. So surely that is a huge grey area for them?
  • Richard_Nabavi
    Richard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    SouthamObserver said:

    I'm afraid they have to. Cameron, Osborne and co are finished and need to go asap.

    Agreed, but I think we'll get a political vacuum for quite a while. Not only will it be a vacuum in terms of personalities, even more seriously there will be a vacuum in terms of policy, because no homework was done and the Leave campaign jumped on any passing populist bandwagon. The only 100% clear thing about the outcome is that it's a vote against free movement of people. So that rules out the EEA option.
  • Mortimer
    Mortimer Posts: 14,229
    Dreadful result for Remain in St Helens
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2016
    RobD said:

    I suppose their model has no London data. So surely that is a huge grey area for them?

    Par for London as a whole is 66%. Over 70% in a lot of places.
  • williamglenn
    williamglenn Posts: 56,289
    Britain has chosen to be the lab rat in a giant experiment, breaking with the course of Western history since WW2, and the people leading the charge seemingly have no idea of what is at stake.
  • LucyJones
    LucyJones Posts: 651
    edited June 2016
    Off to bed, finally.
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Some (eg Meeks but also others) have been suggesting that a Leave win shows our nation at its worst. That it shows us to be negative, small minded etc. The opposite is true. It shows us at our best, proud, positive and upbeat.

    The Remain campaign has run on pure fear and (self-)loathing. Some will today have voted Remain due to that fear, but the fact that a majority of the nation seems to have been confident enough in ourselves, confident enough in our ability, confident enough in our future to feel able to vote Leave. It makes me proud to be British.

    My grandparents generation weren't cowed by the blitz. We haven't been cowed by Fear.

    Thanks.

  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    Oxford Remain 70%
  • John_M
    John_M Posts: 7,503
    Stunning insights from the BBC. Apparently swingback might not have happened.
  • The_Woodpecker
    The_Woodpecker Posts: 506
    Blueberry said:

    Gary Lineker, Barry O’Bama, David Beckham, Jamie Oliver, Rio Ferdinand, Steven Hawking, John Curtiss …. your boys TOOK ONE HELL OF BEATING!!!

    So has the pound.
  • Jonathan
    Jonathan Posts: 22,107
    £ nearly lost 8c. :-0
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,722
    BBC / Sky pushing this narrative that it isn't just Leave doing better in "their" areas, Remain doing better in theirs....Fathead just said that about Oxford for Remain....I think we know better on here.
  • Floater
    Floater Posts: 14,207
    Scott_P said:

    @graemewearden: Futures market predicting a massive selloff -- FTSE 100 being called down 6% https://t.co/QhtxxuhyCk

    Unheard of... oh wait.
  • PlatoSaid
    PlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    taffys said:

    This People vs The Establishment is most amusing.

    The implications are huge. The global establishment threw everything....everything at this Ms Plato.

    And it looks like they are being beaten.

    Brendan O'Neill is ringing in my ears.
  • david_herdson
    david_herdson Posts: 18,357
    Thrak said:

    williamglenn said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    At what time today does David Cameron announce his intention to resign?

    He really shouldn't. That would be the equivalent of Ed Miliband walking out after the 2015 election, only in this case instead of the Labour Party being left to fall into chaos, he would be leaving the country.

    Cameron caused this mess by misjudging the whole situation. The stakes are too high for him to walk away now and abdicate responsibility.
    He is more likely to announce his intention to stand down and start the election process, meanwhile Osborne will attempt to calm things with an emergency budget with co-operation from the leave team. It's probably the best they can do but it will still be chaotic.
    No. Cameron needs to stay on for the immediate future. He does, however, need a major unifying reshuffle today. Promote leavers, Osborne out of the Treasury. Boris Party Chairman.
  • SouthamObserver
    SouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    I'm afraid they have to. Cameron, Osborne and co are finished and need to go asap.

    Agreed, but I think we'll get a political vacuum for quite a while. Not only will it be a vacuum in terms of personalities, even more seriously there will be a vacuum in terms of policy, because no homework was done and the Leave campaign jumped on any passing populist bandwagon. The only 100% clear thing about the outcome is that it's a vote against free movement of people. So that rules out the EEA option.

    Yep - but Leave owns all of this. They just have to deliver.

  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Greenwich too close to call? Supposed to be about 60% Remain.
  • PlatoSaid
    PlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Some (eg Meeks but also others) have been suggesting that a Leave win shows our nation at its worst. That it shows us to be negative, small minded etc. The opposite is true. It shows us at our best, proud, positive and upbeat.

    The Remain campaign has run on pure fear and (self-)loathing. Some will today have voted Remain due to that fear, but the fact that a majority of the nation seems to have been confident enough in ourselves, confident enough in our ability, confident enough in our future to feel able to vote Leave. It makes me proud to be British.

    My grandparents generation weren't cowed by the blitz. We haven't been cowed by Fear.

    CLAPS
  • CornishBlue
    CornishBlue Posts: 840
    edited June 2016
    williamglenn said:

    Britain has chosen to be the lab rat in a giant experiment, breaking with the course of Western history since WW2, and the people leading the charge seemingly have no idea of what is at stake.

    The same could have been said on the eve of the industrial revolution, or when we broke from the Papacy, or when we declared war on Germany in 1939.

    We are a revolutionary country.
  • weejonnie
    weejonnie Posts: 3,820
    rottenborough said:

    (((Dan Hodges))) ‏@DPJHodges 2m2 minutes ago
    Greenwich council leader says "it's too close to call". Greenwich.

    Greenwich should be 60-40 Remain.
  • Freggles
    Freggles Posts: 3,487
    Blueberry said:

    Gary Lineker, Barry O’Bama, David Beckham, Jamie Oliver, Rio Ferdinand, Steven Hawking, John Curtiss …. your boys TOOK ONE HELL OF BEATING!!!

    I was planning on doing one of these for Leavers but looks like I am denied that chance!

    Why do I lose every election?!?
  • Paristonda
    Paristonda Posts: 1,844
    Is this the nail in the coffin on Project Fear? The SNP would be mad not to call indyref2 for as soon after Brexit as possible, when Scots will be most inclined to leave the UK. the economic arguments won't wash this time. Nicola should phrase the referendum as Scotland refusing to leave the EU and therefore requiring a separation from the rest of the UK
  • taffys
    taffys Posts: 9,753
    Britain has chosen to be the lab rat in a giant experiment, breaking with the course of Western history since WW2, and the people leading the charge seemingly have no idea of what is at stake.

    Now come on sir. Look at that comment, and think how patronising it might sound. You do not have a monopoly on geopolitical analysis.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,608
    edited June 2016
    That Lambeth vote almost eliminated the Leave lead!

    Oh, right it was Lambeth+Exeter+Oxford
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    Lambeth 79% Remain
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    Exeter 55% Remain
  • pbr2013
    pbr2013 Posts: 649
    williamglenn said:

    Britain has chosen to be the lab rat in a giant experiment, breaking with the course of Western history since WW2, and the people leading the charge seemingly have no idea of what is at stake.

    FFS have a word with yourself.
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    University town Exeter 1% better for Remain than par.
  • hunchman
    hunchman Posts: 2,591
    HYUFD said:

    Oxford Remain 70%

    Stunningly out of touch with reality in the rest of the country!
  • PantherDave
    PantherDave Posts: 62
    Glasgow coming now.......
  • Freggles
    Freggles Posts: 3,487
    Lambeth overperforms for Remain there right?
  • Blueberry
    Blueberry Posts: 408
    The_Woodpecker said:

    Blueberry said:

    Gary Lineker, Barry O’Bama, David Beckham, Jamie Oliver, Rio Ferdinand, Steven Hawking, John Curtiss …. your boys TOOK ONE HELL OF BEATING!!!

    So has the pound.
    Couldn't give a toss about the £. It'll be up again next week.
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,722
    Freggles said:

    Blueberry said:

    Gary Lineker, Barry O’Bama, David Beckham, Jamie Oliver, Rio Ferdinand, Steven Hawking, John Curtiss …. your boys TOOK ONE HELL OF BEATING!!!

    I was planning on doing one of these for Leavers but looks like I am denied that chance!

    Why do I lose every election?!?
    Populus, YouGov, ORB, ICM, Survey Monkey.....your boys TOOK ONE HELL OF A BEATING (AGAIN) !!!!!
  • Thrak
    Thrak Posts: 494
    edited June 2016
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    I'm afraid they have to. Cameron, Osborne and co are finished and need to go asap.

    Agreed, but I think we'll get a political vacuum for quite a while. Not only will it be a vacuum in terms of personalities, even more seriously there will be a vacuum in terms of policy, because no homework was done and the Leave campaign jumped on any passing populist bandwagon. The only 100% clear thing about the outcome is that it's a vote against free movement of people. So that rules out the EEA option.
    Yes, EEA and access to the single market are dead. The emergency measures taken need to be based on that.
  • Mortimer
    Mortimer Posts: 14,229
    Freggles said:

    Lambeth overperforms for Remain there right?

    Yep - about 4.5%
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2016
    Glasgow:

    Remain 168,335 (66.6%)
    Leave 84,474 (33.4%)
  • rottenborough
    rottenborough Posts: 66,859
    Rob Ford saying London has some "heavy lifting" to do to save the day.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,608
    Remain now in the lead!
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    edited June 2016
    And now that the campaign is over I can reveal why the pollsters got it wrong.

    The pollsters who got the result right last time still changed their methodology, they tried to fix something that was all right and they broke it.

    The pollsters who got things wrong last time tried to correct this, and they where bang on the Ref result last week, the problem is that they kept changing their methodology all the time, or they simply disregarded their polls and did forecasts instead.

    Populus was simply working for Remain so it's no surprise they publised those numbers.
    The Remain campaign knew that they where going to lose, that's why Cameron panicked and did that speech in front of No.10 .
  • KentRising
    KentRising Posts: 2,926
    Exeter above par for Remain.
  • MyBurningEars
    MyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    Sky doing a bit on the forex - both channels really ought to have kept some biz/econ correspondents up all night to watch the markets in case something like this happened. The studio bods seem to struggle keeping up with the data coming in, especially above/below par, they might actually do better to watch the currency.
  • weejonnie
    weejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Lambeth better for Remain.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,802
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Freggles said:

    Blueberry said:

    Gary Lineker, Barry O’Bama, David Beckham, Jamie Oliver, Rio Ferdinand, Steven Hawking, John Curtiss …. your boys TOOK ONE HELL OF BEATING!!!

    I was planning on doing one of these for Leavers but looks like I am denied that chance!

    Why do I lose every election?!?
    Populus, YouGov, ORB, ICM, Survey Monkey.....your boys TOOK ONE HELL OF A BEATING (AGAIN) !!!!!
    ICM called it right, ditto TNS
  • Mortimer
    Mortimer Posts: 14,229
    AndyJS said:

    University town Exeter 1% better for Remain than par.

    Oxford around 1% better.
  • Jonathan
    Jonathan Posts: 22,107
    Remain lead.
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,714
    Scott_P said:

    @graemewearden: Futures market predicting a massive selloff -- FTSE 100 being called down 6% https://t.co/QhtxxuhyCk

    More interesting will be FTSE 250, as FTSE 100 is full of companies with international earnings that do better in the case of Brexit. We own Wolsely, for example, which is a big US Dollar earner.
  • SouthamObserver
    SouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    The_Woodpecker said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Bob__Sykes said:

    We're fucked. All of us.

    Quite exciting though, even though many of us will lose our jobs and homes.

    It is exciting. Then you remember Johnson, Gove, Patel and co are going to takeover, and millions of ordinary punters are looking at significant damage to their livelihoods, and it becomes a lot less attractive.

    Unfortunately I think it's worse than that. It was completely clear from the campaign that they are not ready to take over, and haven't got the least clue even about the economic danger, let alone about a plan for dealing with it.

    I'm afraid they have to. Cameron, Osborne and co are finished and need to go asap.

    Well done SO - you got a prediction right at last!

    Actually, I'm on a roll. Next tip: buy shares in Betrayal.

  • RodCrosby
    RodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Glasgow better for LEAVE
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    Remain 50.7% Leave 49.3% nationally now
  • alex.
    alex. Posts: 4,658
    Crossover again?
  • Tissue_Price
    Tissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Re-crossover. God knows why
  • Wanderer
    Wanderer Posts: 3,838
    Uncrossover caused by Lambeth?
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,608
    MyBurningEars said:

    Sky doing a bit on the forex - both channels really ought to have kept some biz/econ correspondents up all night to watch the markets in case something like this happened. The studio bods seem to struggle keeping up with the data coming in, especially above/below par, they might actually do better to watch the currency.

    The BBC has done that.
  • tyson
    tyson Posts: 6,122
    crossover back....come on
  • not_on_fire
    not_on_fire Posts: 4,451
    Leave drifting....bit odd
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Lambeth 79% Remain. Par was 75%.
  • bigjohnowls
    bigjohnowls Posts: 22,951
    UNCROSSOVER
  • MikeL
    MikeL Posts: 7,809
    CROSSOVER!

    Remain FAVOURITE again!
This discussion has been closed.

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