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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The results so far have developed not necessarily to Remain

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  • pbr2013pbr2013 Posts: 649
    Nerves fraying. "Labour councillor in Oxford arrested and taken home by police"
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    Vince is on. This should be good.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    and 1.41 gone!!!!!
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Mortimer said:

    What are the par scores for:

    Southend
    Bury
    Harlow

    How much better is Leave doing than forecast?

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hCtN3IY76azcr_6OiFPvZI0eXi_8JJqxT7d8vNhW2Do/edit#gid=0

    Somewhere between a few and more.
    Remain was 10% below where they should be for Harlow. (31 v 41)
  • ThrakThrak Posts: 494
    Sterling in freefall at the moment.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,603
    Scotland voting Remain, UK voting Leave. Indyref2 is a dead cert.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    We're fucked. All of us.

    Quite exciting though, even though many of us will lose our jobs and homes.

    It is exciting. Then you remember Johnson, Gove, Patel and co are going to takeover, and millions of ordinary punters are looking at significant damage to their livelihoods, and it becomes a lot less attractive.

    From my point of view it's not looking good for the economy, for society and cohesion, or the future of the UK as a unitary state. Still, the sun will still rise tomorrow morning, and it will still be summer.
    What total piffle - you mean The Establishment are going to lose.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,719

    Wexit.

    England and Wales Cricket Team, England and Wales independent nation.

    Party like it's 1536 :)
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486

    66% Leave in Redcar

    Too late to nationalise steel!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,231
    rcs1000 said:

    I think I'll be going to bed soon.

    Me too. What time does WWIII start?

    Need to set my alarm.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,233
    Vince!!!!!!!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,611

    Cashed out. +£5oo remain, +£1500 leave. Really think Remain might whisker this. Too stressful!

    OK Bury and Swansea results are changing my mind.
    Swansea had above average UKIP results last year, Bury fractionally above
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,462
    John_M said:

    Portsmouth rumoured 57% leave, Southhampton 60% leave. Woah.

    Would expect Portsmouth to be higher for Leave - can't imagine talk of an EU Armed Forces going down well....
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    TSE - surely Peter Kellner's perceptive tweet should be added to the header...! :lol:

    Peter Kellner @PeterKellner1

    Looking much closer now; Remain victory no longer certain
    1:47 AM - 24 Jun 2016
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,687
    Bury 54% Leave - Andy's par figure was 50.46% Remain,
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,645

    Extremely low immigration in most of these parts of wales. This needs a masterclass in explanation, and is not nearly as simple as many on the Leave side might like to suggest.

    I suggest the Leave side understand these voters more than the establishment...

    Which is why Tory Leavers have cheered on policy after policy that has done significant harm to working class voters.

    Least bad option though eh?
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,564
    AndyJS said:

    Bury is a horrible result for Remain. I thought they would narrowly carry it.

    As did I. That's a very poor sign for the Manchester area results to come.

    Harlow very disappointing for remain as well.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    This is the single most incredible electoral result of my lifetime.

    Also the most pleasing, and the most scary.

    I am reminded of Yeats wonderful quote after Irish independence

    'A terrible beauty is born...'
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,585
    How is this site going to cope now the polling industry is dead?
  • CornishBlueCornishBlue Posts: 840
    SeanT said:

    This is the single most incredible electoral result of my lifetime.

    Also the most pleasing, and the most scary.

    It is, frankly, off the scale.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    England - current percentages:

    Remain 40%
    Leave 60%
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,068
    Vince is right, project fear rolled out way too often by "Call me Dave".
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341

    What are the par scores for:

    Southend
    Bury
    Harlow

    How much better is Leave doing than forecast?

    Harlow was meant to be 63% - 68% achieved.

    Brentwood similar I think
  • marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    Welsh Labour blaming timing of referendum just weeks after Assembly elections
    Plaid Cymru blaming austerity
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Wellingborough exceeds Leave expectations.
  • pbr2013pbr2013 Posts: 649
    edited June 2016
    AndyJS said:

    England - current percentages:

    Remain 40%
    Leave 60%

    Sheesh.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,835
    Dramatic further plunge in £ and out-of-hours FTSE
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,460

    We're fucked. All of us.

    Quite exciting though, even though many of us will lose our jobs and homes.

    It is exciting. Then you remember Johnson, Gove, Patel and co are going to takeover, and millions of ordinary punters are looking at significant damage to their livelihoods, and it becomes a lot less attractive.
    The ordinary punters who voted for Brexit do not share the same vision as Johnson, Gove and Patel. This will quickly spin out of political control.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,960

    FPT

    Wanderer said:

    Well, this is getting bizarre. We are all pretty much ready to call it for Leave and it's still odds-against.

    How many people have in hindsight here talked about how slow the market was to react away from No Overall Majority last year and how much they made based on that?

    If I gambled I'd be betting big on Leave right now, it should be odds-on.
    I keep saying betting odds are a lagging indicator. New money has to overcome the weight of previous bets.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    Labour blaming SNP for low turnout in Scotland. You couldn't make this up!
  • RealBritainRealBritain Posts: 255
    PlatoSaid said:

    We're fucked. All of us.

    Quite exciting though, even though many of us will lose our jobs and homes.

    It is exciting. Then you remember Johnson, Gove, Patel and co are going to takeover, and millions of ordinary punters are looking at significant damage to their livelihoods, and it becomes a lot less attractive.

    From my point of view it's not looking good for the economy, for society and cohesion, or the future of the UK as a unitary state. Still, the sun will still rise tomorrow morning, and it will still be summer.
    What total piffle - you mean The Establishment are going to lose.
    No, I think the ordinary working person will lose.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,114
    Chameleon said:

    Mortimer said:

    What are the par scores for:

    Southend
    Bury
    Harlow

    How much better is Leave doing than forecast?

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hCtN3IY76azcr_6OiFPvZI0eXi_8JJqxT7d8vNhW2Do/edit#gid=0

    Somewhere between a few and more.
    Remain was 10% below where they should be for Harlow. (31 v 41)
    Quite right - sorry, I didn't catch the Harlow result...
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,458
    Someone who has been working for Remain has texted me

    'Result is going to be Leave 54 Remain 46'
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,023
    AndyJS said:

    England - current percentages:

    Remain 40%
    Leave 60%

    It'll be 52:48 to Leave, because there are the big Remain areas of London still to go. I would be very surprised if it was more than 1% either way out from that forecast now.
  • CornishBlueCornishBlue Posts: 840

    rcs1000 said:

    I think I'll be going to bed soon.

    Me too. What time does WWIII start?

    Need to set my alarm.
    I believe 12noon Berlin time, 11am Greenwich time, is traditional.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821

    We're fucked. All of us.

    Quite exciting though, even though many of us will lose our jobs and homes.

    It is exciting. Then you remember Johnson, Gove, Patel and co are going to takeover, and millions of ordinary punters are looking at significant damage to their livelihoods, and it becomes a lot less attractive.

    Unfortunately I think it's worse than that. It was completely clear from the campaign that they are not ready to take over, and haven't got the least clue even about the economic danger, let alone about a plan for dealing with it.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,562
    taffys said:

    This is the single most incredible electoral result of my lifetime.

    Also the most pleasing, and the most scary.

    I am reminded of Yeats wonderful quote after Irish independence

    'A terrible beauty is born...'

    Or, talking of Yeats:

    And what rough beast, its hour come round at last,
    Slouches towards Bethlehem to be born?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,786
    The polling company who had a 10% Remain win....well I think they are probably hot footing to the nearest airport as we speak.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    edited June 2016
    Euro up V pound - meeting resistance at 0.80
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Cable saying no need for referendum - the public seems to disagree.

    Hoey blaming Cameron's decision to call Leavers Racist and Stupid.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    taffys said:

    This is the single most incredible electoral result of my lifetime.

    Also the most pleasing, and the most scary.

    I am reminded of Yeats wonderful quote after Irish independence

    'A terrible beauty is born...'

    A few weeks ago, after deciding to vote Leave - I felt my first twang of revolutionary zeal. This People vs The Establishment is most amusing.
  • pbr2013pbr2013 Posts: 649

    Someone who has been working for Remain has texted me

    'Result is going to be Leave 54 Remain 46'

    I had 55/45 in your competition.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,878
    At what time today does David Cameron announce his intention to resign?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,897
    Nice chart for tracking sterling:

    https://www.dailyfx.com/gbp-usd

  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,542
    F'king Betfair wont let me deposit any more !!!!!!
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    IanB2 said:

    Dramatic further plunge in £ and out-of-hours FTSE

    Short covering rally to 1.42 level
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Sky: Labour blaming the SNP
  • OUTOUT Posts: 569
    Labour blaming Snp lacklustre campaign. Err Jeremy Corbyn anyone?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,835
    FTSE now below 6000 - was 6400 just this afternoon
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,458
    maaarsh said:

    How is this site going to cope now the polling industry is dead?

    Pollsters like ICM and TNS will be saying their are full of life at the moment.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,897

    Someone who has been working for Remain has texted me

    'Result is going to be Leave 54 Remain 46'

    Surely it can't be that big? Surely?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    How could the polls get it so wrong again? Jesus.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    maaarsh said:

    How is this site going to cope now the polling industry is dead?

    Examine Scottish subsamples within a week?
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''It is a historical low point for this country, made worse by the evident cluelessness as to what Leave actually want to do. There is nothing to discuss: it is a moral stain on the nation and I will have no part in pursuing this ugly and half-baked hobby horse.''

    Stunning grace under fire.

    I salute you sir!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,897

    maaarsh said:

    How is this site going to cope now the polling industry is dead?

    Pollsters like ICM and TNS will be saying their are full of life at the moment.
    ICM is the gold standard :)
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    PlatoSaid said:

    We're fucked. All of us.

    Quite exciting though, even though many of us will lose our jobs and homes.

    It is exciting. Then you remember Johnson, Gove, Patel and co are going to takeover, and millions of ordinary punters are looking at significant damage to their livelihoods, and it becomes a lot less attractive.

    From my point of view it's not looking good for the economy, for society and cohesion, or the future of the UK as a unitary state. Still, the sun will still rise tomorrow morning, and it will still be summer.
    What total piffle - you mean The Establishment are going to lose.
    No, I think the ordinary working person will lose.
    The ordinary working person has (in their view) been losing for a long time now. Hence, the result looking the way it is.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,786

    Someone who has been working for Remain has texted me

    'Result is going to be Leave 54 Remain 46'

    If it ends up like that, Dave and George are toast.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,562
    Cable just about conceded then, or have I had one too many sherbets?

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,231

    Someone who has been working for Remain has texted me

    'Result is going to be Leave 54 Remain 46'

    Fook me sideways.
  • CornishBlueCornishBlue Posts: 840

    PlatoSaid said:

    We're fucked. All of us.

    Quite exciting though, even though many of us will lose our jobs and homes.

    It is exciting. Then you remember Johnson, Gove, Patel and co are going to takeover, and millions of ordinary punters are looking at significant damage to their livelihoods, and it becomes a lot less attractive.

    From my point of view it's not looking good for the economy, for society and cohesion, or the future of the UK as a unitary state. Still, the sun will still rise tomorrow morning, and it will still be summer.
    What total piffle - you mean The Establishment are going to lose.
    No, I think the ordinary working person will lose.
    Twas ever thus.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,603

    We're fucked. All of us.

    Quite exciting though, even though many of us will lose our jobs and homes.

    It is exciting. Then you remember Johnson, Gove, Patel and co are going to takeover, and millions of ordinary punters are looking at significant damage to their livelihoods, and it becomes a lot less attractive.

    Unfortunately I think it's worse than that. It was completely clear from the campaign that they are not ready to take over, and haven't got the least clue even about the economic danger, let alone about a plan for dealing with it.
    Cameron's legacy.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,542
    Cookie said:

    Bury 54% Leave - Andy's par figure was 50.46% Remain,

    There's a lot of ABs in Prestwich as well.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,630

    We're fucked. All of us.

    Quite exciting though, even though many of us will lose our jobs and homes.

    It is exciting. Then you remember Johnson, Gove, Patel and co are going to takeover, and millions of ordinary punters are looking at significant damage to their livelihoods, and it becomes a lot less attractive.

    Unfortunately I think it's worse than that. It was completely clear from the campaign that they are not ready to take over, and haven't got the least clue even about the economic danger, let alone about a plan for dealing with it.

    I'm afraid they have to. Cameron, Osborne and co are finished and need to go asap.

  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    The polling company who had a 10% Remain win....well I think they are probably hot footing to the nearest airport as we speak.

    UnPopulus?
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    PlatoSaid said:

    maaarsh said:

    How is this site going to cope now the polling industry is dead?

    Examine Scottish subsamples within a week?
    LOL!!!!!!!!!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,786
    OUT said:

    Labour blaming Snp lacklustre campaign. Err Jeremy Corbyn anyone?

    Always somebodies else fault....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,611
    Now Leave 52% Remain 48%
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    PlatoSaid said:

    We're fucked. All of us.

    Quite exciting though, even though many of us will lose our jobs and homes.

    It is exciting. Then you remember Johnson, Gove, Patel and co are going to takeover, and millions of ordinary punters are looking at significant damage to their livelihoods, and it becomes a lot less attractive.

    From my point of view it's not looking good for the economy, for society and cohesion, or the future of the UK as a unitary state. Still, the sun will still rise tomorrow morning, and it will still be summer.
    What total piffle - you mean The Establishment are going to lose.
    The Establishment is very good at looking after itself and always has been. That is how they have survived so long. They will adjust quickly. though the shocks elsewhere will be profound.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    edited June 2016
    RobD said:

    Someone who has been working for Remain has texted me

    'Result is going to be Leave 54 Remain 46'

    Surely it can't be that big? Surely?
    Two big stonking Remain beasts to come: Brum and London.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    taffys said:

    ''It is a historical low point for this country, made worse by the evident cluelessness as to what Leave actually want to do. There is nothing to discuss: it is a moral stain on the nation and I will have no part in pursuing this ugly and half-baked hobby horse.''

    Stunning grace under fire.

    I salute you sir!

    Adding that to my 'Magnanimous in victory, gracious in defeat' scrapbook :D
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,897
    IanB2 said:

    FTSE now below 6000 - was 6400 just this afternoon

    Can track that on here:

    http://www.ig.com/uk/ig-indices/ftse-100
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,068
    hunchman said:

    IanB2 said:

    Dramatic further plunge in £ and out-of-hours FTSE

    Short covering rally to 1.42 level
    Sell sell sell !
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited June 2016
    AndyJS said:
    Except Mr Hodges is one of the people who were saying Labour should've been more enthusiastically pro-EU.

    This referendum has shown the Labour "moderates" are just as out of touch with public opinion as the Corbyn wing.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,116
    IanB2 said:

    FTSE now below 6000 - was 6400 just this afternoon

    It's going to go a lot lower than that by next week.

    What happened to the those Tories who were pro business? Didn't realise they were nihilistic notrights.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,460

    At what time today does David Cameron announce his intention to resign?

    He really shouldn't. That would be the equivalent of Ed Miliband walking out after the 2015 election, only in this case instead of the Labour Party being left to fall into chaos, he would be leaving the country.

    Cameron caused this mess by misjudging the whole situation. The stakes are too high for him to walk away now and abdicate responsibility.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,321
    taffys said:

    ''It is a historical low point for this country, made worse by the evident cluelessness as to what Leave actually want to do. There is nothing to discuss: it is a moral stain on the nation and I will have no part in pursuing this ugly and half-baked hobby horse.''

    Stunning grace under fire.

    I salute you sir!

    Half Baked Hobby Horse needs to become an alias like Vapid Bilge. Alastair really is the comedic gift that keeps giving.
  • St Helens expected to be 50/50 in Andy's spreadsheet 58% for leave
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,630

    PlatoSaid said:

    We're fucked. All of us.

    Quite exciting though, even though many of us will lose our jobs and homes.

    It is exciting. Then you remember Johnson, Gove, Patel and co are going to takeover, and millions of ordinary punters are looking at significant damage to their livelihoods, and it becomes a lot less attractive.

    From my point of view it's not looking good for the economy, for society and cohesion, or the future of the UK as a unitary state. Still, the sun will still rise tomorrow morning, and it will still be summer.
    What total piffle - you mean The Establishment are going to lose.
    No, I think the ordinary working person will lose.

    Of course. The establishment is still in charge. It'll just be a different part of it.

  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,233
    edited June 2016
    Pulpstar said:

    Vince is right, project fear rolled out way too often by "Call me Dave".

    It started bad with Obama and went downhill from there...

    These two posh boys (Cameron and Osborne) threatening their own citizens was bad enough but to then get the leaders of other nations to do it as well....
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    This People vs The Establishment is most amusing.

    The implications are huge. The global establishment threw everything....everything at this Ms Plato.

    And it looks like they are being beaten.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,611
    St Helens votes Leave
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,146
    Worth saying that the Euro is falling against the dollar, though not quite as much as the pound.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,960
    SeanT said:

    This is the single most incredible electoral result of my lifetime.

    Also the most pleasing, and the most scary.

    Not necessarily. It's equivalent to POTUS2004 or Ireland2008. Polls have error ranges, and referendum polls have bigger error ranges. Betting odds are a lagging indicator. People update existing models as results comes in instead of abandoning and recalculating from scratch. Whether it's UK2010 or UK2015 or UK2016, people make the same mistakes over and over again and the clever analyst notes this.

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,231

    FPT @CasinoRoyale I am entirely calm. My view of Leave's campaign is well-settled and has been well-advertised. It is not going to change.

    It is a historical low point for this country, made worse by the evident cluelessness as to what Leave actually want to do. There is nothing to discuss: it is a moral stain on the nation and I will have no part in pursuing this ugly and half-baked hobby horse.

    I will contact you privately in the coming days.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Thrasher predicting 56% LEAVE!
  • CornishBlueCornishBlue Posts: 840
    Sky News prediction for UK vote: LEAVE 56%
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,458
    I've been told Leave have Newham.
  • pbr2013pbr2013 Posts: 649

    taffys said:

    ''It is a historical low point for this country, made worse by the evident cluelessness as to what Leave actually want to do. There is nothing to discuss: it is a moral stain on the nation and I will have no part in pursuing this ugly and half-baked hobby horse.''

    Stunning grace under fire.

    I salute you sir!

    Half Baked Hobby Horse needs to become an alias like Vapid Bilge. Alastair really is the comedic gift that keeps giving.
    Some real sourpusses round here tonight.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    Sky predicting 56:44 overall result. Don't think its that much personally.
  • We're fucked. All of us.

    Quite exciting though, even though many of us will lose our jobs and homes.

    It is exciting. Then you remember Johnson, Gove, Patel and co are going to takeover, and millions of ordinary punters are looking at significant damage to their livelihoods, and it becomes a lot less attractive.

    Unfortunately I think it's worse than that. It was completely clear from the campaign that they are not ready to take over, and haven't got the least clue even about the economic danger, let alone about a plan for dealing with it.

    I'm afraid they have to. Cameron, Osborne and co are finished and need to go asap.

    Well done SO - you got a prediction right at last!
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @graemewearden: Futures market predicting a massive selloff -- FTSE 100 being called down 6% https://t.co/QhtxxuhyCk
  • marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    Thrasher calling it 44 - 56 Leave
  • ConcanvasserConcanvasser Posts: 165
    70% turn out in Pompey. Large southern urban area Going Leave .
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,752
    Thrasher says 56:44 to Leave. Don't believe that but if it is even close our polling companies really have to find something else to do.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820

    Someone who has been working for Remain has texted me

    'Result is going to be Leave 54 Remain 46'

    If it ends up like that, Dave and George are toast.
    Well we now know that online polling is better than phone polls - just like 2015! Oh wait....
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Some (eg Meeks but also others) have been suggesting that a Leave win shows our nation at its worst. That it shows us to be negative, small minded etc. The opposite is true. It shows us at our best, proud, positive and upbeat.

    The Remain campaign has run on pure fear and (self-)loathing. Some will today have voted Remain due to that fear, but the fact that a majority of the nation seems to have been confident enough in ourselves, confident enough in our ability, confident enough in our future to feel able to vote Leave. It makes me proud to be British.

    My grandparents generation weren't cowed by the blitz. We haven't been cowed by Fear.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,231
    Just wondering what Andrew Cooper and his fantasy Populus is thinking right now..
This discussion has been closed.