politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The results so far have developed not necessarily to Remain
Comments
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Nerves fraying. "Labour councillor in Oxford arrested and taken home by police"0
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Vince is on. This should be good.0
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and 1.41 gone!!!!!0
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Remain was 10% below where they should be for Harlow. (31 v 41)Mortimer said:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hCtN3IY76azcr_6OiFPvZI0eXi_8JJqxT7d8vNhW2Do/edit#gid=0KentRising said:What are the par scores for:
Southend
Bury
Harlow
How much better is Leave doing than forecast?
Somewhere between a few and more.
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Sterling in freefall at the moment.0
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Scotland voting Remain, UK voting Leave. Indyref2 is a dead cert.
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Party like it's 1536Philip_Thompson said:Wexit.
England and Wales Cricket Team, England and Wales independent nation.0 -
What total piffle - you mean The Establishment are going to lose.RealBritain said:
From my point of view it's not looking good for the economy, for society and cohesion, or the future of the UK as a unitary state. Still, the sun will still rise tomorrow morning, and it will still be summer.SouthamObserver said:
It is exciting. Then you remember Johnson, Gove, Patel and co are going to takeover, and millions of ordinary punters are looking at significant damage to their livelihoods, and it becomes a lot less attractive.Bob__Sykes said:We're fucked. All of us.
Quite exciting though, even though many of us will lose our jobs and homes.0 -
Too late to nationalise steel!SandyRentool said:66% Leave in Redcar
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Vince!!!!!!!0
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Me too. What time does WWIII start?rcs1000 said:I think I'll be going to bed soon.
Need to set my alarm.0 -
Swansea had above average UKIP results last year, Bury fractionally aboveThe_Woodpecker said:
OK Bury and Swansea results are changing my mind.The_Woodpecker said:Cashed out. +£5oo remain, +£1500 leave. Really think Remain might whisker this. Too stressful!
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TSE - surely Peter Kellner's perceptive tweet should be added to the header...!
Peter Kellner @PeterKellner1
Looking much closer now; Remain victory no longer certain
1:47 AM - 24 Jun 20160 -
Would expect Portsmouth to be higher for Leave - can't imagine talk of an EU Armed Forces going down well....John_M said:Portsmouth rumoured 57% leave, Southhampton 60% leave. Woah.
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Bury 54% Leave - Andy's par figure was 50.46% Remain,0
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Least bad option though eh?SouthamObserver said:
Which is why Tory Leavers have cheered on policy after policy that has done significant harm to working class voters.brokenwheel said:
I suggest the Leave side understand these voters more than the establishment...RealBritain said:Extremely low immigration in most of these parts of wales. This needs a masterclass in explanation, and is not nearly as simple as many on the Leave side might like to suggest.
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This is the single most incredible electoral result of my lifetime.
Also the most pleasing, and the most scary.
I am reminded of Yeats wonderful quote after Irish independence
'A terrible beauty is born...'0 -
How is this site going to cope now the polling industry is dead?0
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It is, frankly, off the scale.SeanT said:This is the single most incredible electoral result of my lifetime.
Also the most pleasing, and the most scary.0 -
England - current percentages:
Remain 40%
Leave 60%0 -
Vince is right, project fear rolled out way too often by "Call me Dave".0
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Harlow was meant to be 63% - 68% achieved.KentRising said:What are the par scores for:
Southend
Bury
Harlow
How much better is Leave doing than forecast?
Brentwood similar I think0 -
Welsh Labour blaming timing of referendum just weeks after Assembly elections
Plaid Cymru blaming austerity0 -
Wellingborough exceeds Leave expectations.0
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Dramatic further plunge in £ and out-of-hours FTSE0
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The ordinary punters who voted for Brexit do not share the same vision as Johnson, Gove and Patel. This will quickly spin out of political control.SouthamObserver said:
It is exciting. Then you remember Johnson, Gove, Patel and co are going to takeover, and millions of ordinary punters are looking at significant damage to their livelihoods, and it becomes a lot less attractive.Bob__Sykes said:We're fucked. All of us.
Quite exciting though, even though many of us will lose our jobs and homes.0 -
I keep saying betting odds are a lagging indicator. New money has to overcome the weight of previous bets.Philip_Thompson said:FPT
Philip_Thompson said:
How many people have in hindsight here talked about how slow the market was to react away from No Overall Majority last year and how much they made based on that?Wanderer said:Well, this is getting bizarre. We are all pretty much ready to call it for Leave and it's still odds-against.
If I gambled I'd be betting big on Leave right now, it should be odds-on.0 -
Labour blaming SNP for low turnout in Scotland. You couldn't make this up!0
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No, I think the ordinary working person will lose.PlatoSaid said:
What total piffle - you mean The Establishment are going to lose.RealBritain said:
From my point of view it's not looking good for the economy, for society and cohesion, or the future of the UK as a unitary state. Still, the sun will still rise tomorrow morning, and it will still be summer.SouthamObserver said:
It is exciting. Then you remember Johnson, Gove, Patel and co are going to takeover, and millions of ordinary punters are looking at significant damage to their livelihoods, and it becomes a lot less attractive.Bob__Sykes said:We're fucked. All of us.
Quite exciting though, even though many of us will lose our jobs and homes.0 -
Someone who has been working for Remain has texted me
'Result is going to be Leave 54 Remain 46'0 -
Quite right - sorry, I didn't catch the Harlow result...Chameleon said:
Remain was 10% below where they should be for Harlow. (31 v 41)Mortimer said:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hCtN3IY76azcr_6OiFPvZI0eXi_8JJqxT7d8vNhW2Do/edit#gid=0KentRising said:What are the par scores for:
Southend
Bury
Harlow
How much better is Leave doing than forecast?
Somewhere between a few and more.0 -
I believe 12noon Berlin time, 11am Greenwich time, is traditional.Casino_Royale said:
Me too. What time does WWIII start?rcs1000 said:I think I'll be going to bed soon.
Need to set my alarm.0 -
Unfortunately I think it's worse than that. It was completely clear from the campaign that they are not ready to take over, and haven't got the least clue even about the economic danger, let alone about a plan for dealing with it.SouthamObserver said:
It is exciting. Then you remember Johnson, Gove, Patel and co are going to takeover, and millions of ordinary punters are looking at significant damage to their livelihoods, and it becomes a lot less attractive.Bob__Sykes said:We're fucked. All of us.
Quite exciting though, even though many of us will lose our jobs and homes.0 -
Or, talking of Yeats:taffys said:This is the single most incredible electoral result of my lifetime.
Also the most pleasing, and the most scary.
I am reminded of Yeats wonderful quote after Irish independence
'A terrible beauty is born...'
And what rough beast, its hour come round at last,
Slouches towards Bethlehem to be born?0 -
The polling company who had a 10% Remain win....well I think they are probably hot footing to the nearest airport as we speak.0
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Euro up V pound - meeting resistance at 0.800
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A few weeks ago, after deciding to vote Leave - I felt my first twang of revolutionary zeal. This People vs The Establishment is most amusing.taffys said:This is the single most incredible electoral result of my lifetime.
Also the most pleasing, and the most scary.
I am reminded of Yeats wonderful quote after Irish independence
'A terrible beauty is born...'0 -
Cable saying no need for referendum - the public seems to disagree.
Hoey blaming Cameron's decision to call Leavers Racist and Stupid.0 -
I had 55/45 in your competition.TheScreamingEagles said:Someone who has been working for Remain has texted me
'Result is going to be Leave 54 Remain 46'0 -
At what time today does David Cameron announce his intention to resign?0
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0
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F'king Betfair wont let me deposit any more !!!!!!
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Sky: Labour blaming the SNP0
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Labour blaming Snp lacklustre campaign. Err Jeremy Corbyn anyone?0
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FTSE now below 6000 - was 6400 just this afternoon0
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Pollsters like ICM and TNS will be saying their are full of life at the moment.maaarsh said:How is this site going to cope now the polling industry is dead?
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Surely it can't be that big? Surely?TheScreamingEagles said:Someone who has been working for Remain has texted me
'Result is going to be Leave 54 Remain 46'0 -
How could the polls get it so wrong again? Jesus.0
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''It is a historical low point for this country, made worse by the evident cluelessness as to what Leave actually want to do. There is nothing to discuss: it is a moral stain on the nation and I will have no part in pursuing this ugly and half-baked hobby horse.''
Stunning grace under fire.
I salute you sir!0 -
ICM is the gold standardTheScreamingEagles said:
Pollsters like ICM and TNS will be saying their are full of life at the moment.maaarsh said:How is this site going to cope now the polling industry is dead?
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The ordinary working person has (in their view) been losing for a long time now. Hence, the result looking the way it is.RealBritain said:
No, I think the ordinary working person will lose.PlatoSaid said:
What total piffle - you mean The Establishment are going to lose.RealBritain said:
From my point of view it's not looking good for the economy, for society and cohesion, or the future of the UK as a unitary state. Still, the sun will still rise tomorrow morning, and it will still be summer.SouthamObserver said:
It is exciting. Then you remember Johnson, Gove, Patel and co are going to takeover, and millions of ordinary punters are looking at significant damage to their livelihoods, and it becomes a lot less attractive.Bob__Sykes said:We're fucked. All of us.
Quite exciting though, even though many of us will lose our jobs and homes.0 -
If it ends up like that, Dave and George are toast.TheScreamingEagles said:Someone who has been working for Remain has texted me
'Result is going to be Leave 54 Remain 46'0 -
Cable just about conceded then, or have I had one too many sherbets?
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Fook me sideways.TheScreamingEagles said:Someone who has been working for Remain has texted me
'Result is going to be Leave 54 Remain 46'0 -
Twas ever thus.RealBritain said:
No, I think the ordinary working person will lose.PlatoSaid said:
What total piffle - you mean The Establishment are going to lose.RealBritain said:
From my point of view it's not looking good for the economy, for society and cohesion, or the future of the UK as a unitary state. Still, the sun will still rise tomorrow morning, and it will still be summer.SouthamObserver said:
It is exciting. Then you remember Johnson, Gove, Patel and co are going to takeover, and millions of ordinary punters are looking at significant damage to their livelihoods, and it becomes a lot less attractive.Bob__Sykes said:We're fucked. All of us.
Quite exciting though, even though many of us will lose our jobs and homes.0 -
Cameron's legacy.Richard_Nabavi said:
Unfortunately I think it's worse than that. It was completely clear from the campaign that they are not ready to take over, and haven't got the least clue even about the economic danger, let alone about a plan for dealing with it.SouthamObserver said:
It is exciting. Then you remember Johnson, Gove, Patel and co are going to takeover, and millions of ordinary punters are looking at significant damage to their livelihoods, and it becomes a lot less attractive.Bob__Sykes said:We're fucked. All of us.
Quite exciting though, even though many of us will lose our jobs and homes.0 -
There's a lot of ABs in Prestwich as well.Cookie said:Bury 54% Leave - Andy's par figure was 50.46% Remain,
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I'm afraid they have to. Cameron, Osborne and co are finished and need to go asap.Richard_Nabavi said:
Unfortunately I think it's worse than that. It was completely clear from the campaign that they are not ready to take over, and haven't got the least clue even about the economic danger, let alone about a plan for dealing with it.SouthamObserver said:
It is exciting. Then you remember Johnson, Gove, Patel and co are going to takeover, and millions of ordinary punters are looking at significant damage to their livelihoods, and it becomes a lot less attractive.Bob__Sykes said:We're fucked. All of us.
Quite exciting though, even though many of us will lose our jobs and homes.
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UnPopulus?FrancisUrquhart said:The polling company who had a 10% Remain win....well I think they are probably hot footing to the nearest airport as we speak.
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Always somebodies else fault....OUT said:Labour blaming Snp lacklustre campaign. Err Jeremy Corbyn anyone?
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Now Leave 52% Remain 48%-1
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The Establishment is very good at looking after itself and always has been. That is how they have survived so long. They will adjust quickly. though the shocks elsewhere will be profound.PlatoSaid said:
What total piffle - you mean The Establishment are going to lose.RealBritain said:
From my point of view it's not looking good for the economy, for society and cohesion, or the future of the UK as a unitary state. Still, the sun will still rise tomorrow morning, and it will still be summer.SouthamObserver said:
It is exciting. Then you remember Johnson, Gove, Patel and co are going to takeover, and millions of ordinary punters are looking at significant damage to their livelihoods, and it becomes a lot less attractive.Bob__Sykes said:We're fucked. All of us.
Quite exciting though, even though many of us will lose our jobs and homes.0 -
Two big stonking Remain beasts to come: Brum and London.RobD said:
Surely it can't be that big? Surely?TheScreamingEagles said:Someone who has been working for Remain has texted me
'Result is going to be Leave 54 Remain 46'0 -
Adding that to my 'Magnanimous in victory, gracious in defeat' scrapbooktaffys said:''It is a historical low point for this country, made worse by the evident cluelessness as to what Leave actually want to do. There is nothing to discuss: it is a moral stain on the nation and I will have no part in pursuing this ugly and half-baked hobby horse.''
Stunning grace under fire.
I salute you sir!0 -
Can track that on here:IanB2 said:FTSE now below 6000 - was 6400 just this afternoon
http://www.ig.com/uk/ig-indices/ftse-1000 -
Except Mr Hodges is one of the people who were saying Labour should've been more enthusiastically pro-EU.AndyJS said:
This referendum has shown the Labour "moderates" are just as out of touch with public opinion as the Corbyn wing.0 -
Half Baked Hobby Horse needs to become an alias like Vapid Bilge. Alastair really is the comedic gift that keeps giving.taffys said:''It is a historical low point for this country, made worse by the evident cluelessness as to what Leave actually want to do. There is nothing to discuss: it is a moral stain on the nation and I will have no part in pursuing this ugly and half-baked hobby horse.''
Stunning grace under fire.
I salute you sir!0 -
He really shouldn't. That would be the equivalent of Ed Miliband walking out after the 2015 election, only in this case instead of the Labour Party being left to fall into chaos, he would be leaving the country.RochdalePioneers said:At what time today does David Cameron announce his intention to resign?
Cameron caused this mess by misjudging the whole situation. The stakes are too high for him to walk away now and abdicate responsibility.0 -
St Helens expected to be 50/50 in Andy's spreadsheet 58% for leave0
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Of course. The establishment is still in charge. It'll just be a different part of it.RealBritain said:
No, I think the ordinary working person will lose.PlatoSaid said:
What total piffle - you mean The Establishment are going to lose.RealBritain said:
From my point of view it's not looking good for the economy, for society and cohesion, or the future of the UK as a unitary state. Still, the sun will still rise tomorrow morning, and it will still be summer.SouthamObserver said:
It is exciting. Then you remember Johnson, Gove, Patel and co are going to takeover, and millions of ordinary punters are looking at significant damage to their livelihoods, and it becomes a lot less attractive.Bob__Sykes said:We're fucked. All of us.
Quite exciting though, even though many of us will lose our jobs and homes.
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It started bad with Obama and went downhill from there...Pulpstar said:Vince is right, project fear rolled out way too often by "Call me Dave".
These two posh boys (Cameron and Osborne) threatening their own citizens was bad enough but to then get the leaders of other nations to do it as well....0 -
This People vs The Establishment is most amusing.
The implications are huge. The global establishment threw everything....everything at this Ms Plato.
And it looks like they are being beaten.0 -
St Helens votes Leave0
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Worth saying that the Euro is falling against the dollar, though not quite as much as the pound.0
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I will contact you privately in the coming days.AlastairMeeks said:FPT @CasinoRoyale I am entirely calm. My view of Leave's campaign is well-settled and has been well-advertised. It is not going to change.
It is a historical low point for this country, made worse by the evident cluelessness as to what Leave actually want to do. There is nothing to discuss: it is a moral stain on the nation and I will have no part in pursuing this ugly and half-baked hobby horse.0 -
Not necessarily. It's equivalent to POTUS2004 or Ireland2008. Polls have error ranges, and referendum polls have bigger error ranges. Betting odds are a lagging indicator. People update existing models as results comes in instead of abandoning and recalculating from scratch. Whether it's UK2010 or UK2015 or UK2016, people make the same mistakes over and over again and the clever analyst notes this.SeanT said:This is the single most incredible electoral result of my lifetime.
Also the most pleasing, and the most scary.
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Thrasher predicting 56% LEAVE!0
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Sky News prediction for UK vote: LEAVE 56%0
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I've been told Leave have Newham.0
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Sky predicting 56:44 overall result. Don't think its that much personally.0
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Some real sourpusses round here tonight.Luckyguy1983 said:
Half Baked Hobby Horse needs to become an alias like Vapid Bilge. Alastair really is the comedic gift that keeps giving.taffys said:''It is a historical low point for this country, made worse by the evident cluelessness as to what Leave actually want to do. There is nothing to discuss: it is a moral stain on the nation and I will have no part in pursuing this ugly and half-baked hobby horse.''
Stunning grace under fire.
I salute you sir!0 -
Well done SO - you got a prediction right at last!SouthamObserver said:
I'm afraid they have to. Cameron, Osborne and co are finished and need to go asap.Richard_Nabavi said:
Unfortunately I think it's worse than that. It was completely clear from the campaign that they are not ready to take over, and haven't got the least clue even about the economic danger, let alone about a plan for dealing with it.SouthamObserver said:
It is exciting. Then you remember Johnson, Gove, Patel and co are going to takeover, and millions of ordinary punters are looking at significant damage to their livelihoods, and it becomes a lot less attractive.Bob__Sykes said:We're fucked. All of us.
Quite exciting though, even though many of us will lose our jobs and homes.0 -
@graemewearden: Futures market predicting a massive selloff -- FTSE 100 being called down 6% https://t.co/QhtxxuhyCk0
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Thrasher calling it 44 - 56 Leave0
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70% turn out in Pompey. Large southern urban area Going Leave .0
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Thrasher says 56:44 to Leave. Don't believe that but if it is even close our polling companies really have to find something else to do.0
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Well we now know that online polling is better than phone polls - just like 2015! Oh wait....FrancisUrquhart said:
If it ends up like that, Dave and George are toast.TheScreamingEagles said:Someone who has been working for Remain has texted me
'Result is going to be Leave 54 Remain 46'0 -
Some (eg Meeks but also others) have been suggesting that a Leave win shows our nation at its worst. That it shows us to be negative, small minded etc. The opposite is true. It shows us at our best, proud, positive and upbeat.
The Remain campaign has run on pure fear and (self-)loathing. Some will today have voted Remain due to that fear, but the fact that a majority of the nation seems to have been confident enough in ourselves, confident enough in our ability, confident enough in our future to feel able to vote Leave. It makes me proud to be British.
My grandparents generation weren't cowed by the blitz. We haven't been cowed by Fear.0 -
Just wondering what Andrew Cooper and his fantasy Populus is thinking right now..0
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Is her Maj purring?0