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20 mins from Banbury to Leamington by train so you might scrape it but if you commute from Warwickshire to London could you not have got a postal vote?SouthamObserver said:So frustrating. Stuck just outside Banbury now. Am not the only one who is missing out. There are a few of us in the same spot, it seems. Remainers, unfortunately. Or maybe there are some shy Leavers too :-)
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Yes, that's a sensible midpoint. Leave more than 60% is great, less than 50% means Remain has probably won.peter_from_putney said:
The spreads have Sunderland as being approx. REMAIN 45% : Leave 55%. Anything materially different from that will excite the betting markets.GIN1138 said:
I think Sunderland will tell us all we need to know (REMAIN will do vastly better than "expected")alex. said:
We will surely have a pretty good idea long before that, unless it is VERY close? The fact is that unlike a general election we will be able to deduce something from every result - with the important thing in many cases not being who wins in various areas, but what the turnout is. In General Elections it is the marginal seats which are most important, but that is not the case here. If anything marginal constituencies are very unimportant, because a close race can have a turnout of 10% or 90% and it won't make much difference.FrancisUrquhart said:It's strange to think big Ben will.strike 10, the election programmed will roll & then we will have to wait 4-5 hrs being they actually start to say anything about the possible result.
With the proviso that the Nissan plant may make Sunderland less representative than you'd expect.0 -
If he'd backed Remain.RobD said:
He coulda been PM!TheScreamingEagles said:twitter.com/lewisiwu/status/746076633644281856
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He looks like he has had a few sherberts.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Very sad to hear thisRobD said:
Any chance at all of you making it to the polling place?SouthamObserver said:So frustrating. Stuck just outside Banbury now. Am not the only one who is missing out. There are a few of us in the same spot, it seems. Remainers, unfortunately. Or maybe there are some shy Leavers too :-)
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If the city wide boys and Boris think it's all done and dusted sounds like not even fergie time would help leave.Casino_Royale said:So it seems everyone thinks Remain have this?
Probably true. But still 30 mins of voting left.0 -
Has he had a drink? ITheScreamingEagles said:
t's odd to be conceding defeat to a member of the public... On the Tube!
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So what's got everyone so confident of a remain win all of a sudden?0
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Seems unlikely.GIN1138 said:
Has he had a drink? ITheScreamingEagles said:
t's odd to be conceding defeat to a member of the public... On the Tube!0 -
I think it's PB's collective spidey-sense tingling.Gallowgate said:So what's got everyone so confident of a remain win all of a sudden?
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I used to live in Salford. Not unexpected. At least outside Media CityCookie said:Anecdote: a conversation reported to me earlier with someone at the BBC in Salford - apparently it's difficult to find a Remainer there. Unexpected, certainly, but possibly given the Corbynist nature of some at the BBC believable. Or maybe it's different between the workers and the higher echelons.
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Anyway before the results come in well done to leave for making an even fist of this, despite all the odds.
After all, they had such a pathetic rabble of a front team, a hopeless argument, and no-one of any significance supporting them....
I have to hand it to them. Leave defied logic, sanity and any kind of reason to make this into a right rollocking contest. And I say that with all due respect.0 -
City wide boys have been piling on all day. They have info we don't.Gallowgate said:So what's got everyone so confident of a remain win all of a sudden?
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I'm sure the Dimbleclone is being worked on right now.williamglenn said:0 -
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Yes, but the Contact agents would in fact be you and I. Moreover the fact I identify us both should surely alert everyone to the truth. Doing so is so daft other than a smokescreen after all.rpjs said:
I like to think of IMB as having been a Contact agent sent here to prepare us. Elon Musk is also a Contact agent working on Phase II.Omnium said:
Excession is outstanding. The Culture is almost a non-government. Banks may have told us things that he didn't realise.Wanderer said:
Likewise. I think Excession is my favourite.John_M said:
I'm so sad that we'll never get another Culture novel. I love 'em all. Player of Games is probably my favourite, with Use of Weapons running a close second.Wanderer said:
Ah, the Culture. That's where I want to live.YellowSubmarine said:
Absolutely correct. But for me the EU is now post Federation and into it's early Culture phase. We need to get it to and through it's Iridian War.Freggles said:
LOL
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weejonnie said:
Quite likely - I hope everyone is keyed up to move their position, one way or the other.GIN1138 said:
I think Sunderland will tell us all we need to know (REMAIN will do vastly better than "expected")alex. said:
We will surely have a pretty good idea long before that, unless it is VERY close? The fact is that unlike a general election we will be able to deduce something from every result - with the important thing in many cases not being who wins in various areas, but what the turnout is. In General Elections it is the marginal seats which are most important, but that is not the case here. If anything marginal constituencies are very unimportant, because a close race can have a turnout of 10% or 90% and it won't make much difference.FrancisUrquhart said:It's strange to think big Ben will.strike 10, the election programmed will roll & then we will have to wait 4-5 hrs being they actually start to say anything about the possible result.
Leave < 50 : pack bags and welcome evermore EU integration
Leave 50-53: Looks like the Brussels gravy train is back on track.
Leave 53-54: No fingernails left.
Leave 54-57: Cameron in stinky bum time
Leave 57+ : Rejoice.
I think we need 60%+ before we start rejoicing.
Turnout also key. We need decent turnout in Leave leading areas; if it's below 70%, there is the possibility that we each of the council areas we want does well, but that we get drowned out by high turnout in London and Scotland.0 -
I thought I'd be back in plenty of time. And would have been but for a lightning strike somewhere on the track. Still, it's my own fault. I just feel very frustrated and incredibly disappointed to miss out. I will end up doing what I thought I'd do when the referendum date was announced - not vote.HYUFD said:
20 mins from Banbury to Leamington by train so you might scrape it but if you commute from Warwickshire to London could you not have got a postal vote?SouthamObserver said:So frustrating. Stuck just outside Banbury now. Am not the only one who is missing out. There are a few of us in the same spot, it seems. Remainers, unfortunately. Or maybe there are some shy Leavers too :-)
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I have genuinely no idea what the result will be. However, I expect the winner to get 54+% of the vote.tyson said:0 -
Me too.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
Very sad to hear thisRobD said:
Any chance at all of you making it to the polling place?SouthamObserver said:So frustrating. Stuck just outside Banbury now. Am not the only one who is missing out. There are a few of us in the same spot, it seems. Remainers, unfortunately. Or maybe there are some shy Leavers too :-)
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Mine too. Just a brilliant book.weejonnie said:
Well you can always change back again - yes - Player of Games is my favourite.John_M said:
Female. I've had more than enough time in a male body.weejonnie said:
Male, female, both or Apex.Wanderer said:
Ah, the Culture. That's where I want to live.YellowSubmarine said:
Absolutely correct. But for me the EU is now post Federation and into it's early Culture phase. We need to get it to and through it's Iridian War.Freggles said:
LOL0 -
Do both the campaigns genuinely have virtually the whole country covered for this, or might there be significant pockets where they have little intelligence. Clearly this is on a different scale to a General Election where most of the focus is on a fairly narrow band of seats, and to have an idea of what's going on they need to work out not just how various areas are voting but in what numbers.0
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I assume you at least took them in as guest to a lounge pre-departure?Charles said:
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Where is all this certainty coming from? how can people profess such confidence?
And surely if Remain have won that's great news for Boris?0 -
With Boris though, anything is possible.MP_SE said:
Seems unlikely.GIN1138 said:
Has he had a drink? ITheScreamingEagles said:
t's odd to be conceding defeat to a member of the public... On the Tube!
I suppose tonight will effectively be the end of his political career? 0 -
I don't think Remain have necessarily got it. All people are going on are:Casino_Royale said:So it seems everyone thinks Remain have this?
Probably true. But still 30 mins of voting left.
* rumours on Twitter (value less than zero)
* baddish last-minute polls for Leave (but if you exclude Populus, they all had it close)
* the state of the betting (but that probably isn't based on foreknowledge)
I think it's still very much in-play.
People can't predict a close result on the one hand and a certain result on the other. If 52% Remain is likely then 49% is very possible. If Remain is home and hosed then it must mean that it has won big. I don't see the evidence for that.0 -
I think he meant WITHIN Media City!Paul_Bedfordshire said:
I used to live in Salford. Not unexpected. At least outside Media CityCookie said:Anecdote: a conversation reported to me earlier with someone at the BBC in Salford - apparently it's difficult to find a Remainer there. Unexpected, certainly, but possibly given the Corbynist nature of some at the BBC believable. Or maybe it's different between the workers and the higher echelons.
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It's a bit like the general election again - one side supremely confident, changed quite rapidly. Though I do think this will go remains way for some reason.Gallowgate said:So what's got everyone so confident of a remain win all of a sudden?
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Their own private exit pollsFrancisUrquhart said:
City wide boys have been piling on all day. They have info we don't.Gallowgate said:So what's got everyone so confident of a remain win all of a sudden?
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Well, duh. Truly wonderful book, in every sense of the word.Wanderer said:
Likewise. I think Excession is my favourite.John_M said:
I'm so sad that we'll never get another Culture novel. I love 'em all. Player of Games is probably my favourite, with Use of Weapons running a close second.Wanderer said:
Ah, the Culture. That's where I want to live.YellowSubmarine said:
Absolutely correct. But for me the EU is now post Federation and into it's early Culture phase. We need to get it to and through it's Iridian War.Freggles said:
LOL0 -
He's still perfectly good at making recorded pieces to camera, à la Attenborough.John_M said:
My mother (who used to work as a shop assistant, and likes to regale people who've heard it a dozen times before that she used to serve the Dimblebies when they were young men) loves his history documentaries.
I think big live events - maybe even live TV full stop - is getting a bit beyond his ability to carry successfully.0 -
Top deck premium economy is my standard PA position (unless I'm blowing airmiles). If you have a window seat you get that nice extra space on the side.Charles said:0 -
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Fixed it for ya!rcs1000 said:weejonnie said:
Quite likely - I hope everyone is keyed up to move their position, one way or the other.GIN1138 said:
I think Sunderland will tell us all we need to know (REMAIN will do vastly better than "expected")alex. said:
We will surely have a pretty good idea long before that, unless it is VERY close? The fact is that unlike a general election we will be able to deduce something from every result - with the important thing in many cases not being who wins in various areas, but what the turnout is. In General Elections it is the marginal seats which are most important, but that is not the case here. If anything marginal constituencies are very unimportant, because a close race can have a turnout of 10% or 90% and it won't make much difference.FrancisUrquhart said:It's strange to think big Ben will.strike 10, the election programmed will roll & then we will have to wait 4-5 hrs being they actually start to say anything about the possible result.
Leave < 50 : pack bags and welcome evermore EU integration
Leave 50-53: Looks like the Brussels gravy train is back on track.
Leave 53-54: No fingernails left.
Leave 54-57: Cameron in stinky bum time
Leave 57+ : Rejoice.
I think we need 60%+ before we start rejoicing.
Turnout also key. We need decent turnout in Leave leading areas; if it's below 70%, there is the possibility that we each of the council areas we want does well, but that we get drowned out swamped by high turnout in London and Scotland. 0 -
It was announced before GE2015 that DD was hanging up his mic afterwards in favour of Huw Edwards. But I guess that actually meant "at some time of his choosing before 2020".williamglenn said:0 -
He could stand for Mayor next time round?GIN1138 said:
With Boris though, anything is possible.MP_SE said:
Seems unlikely.GIN1138 said:
Has he had a drink? ITheScreamingEagles said:
t's odd to be conceding defeat to a member of the public... On the Tube! I suppose tonight will effectively be the end of his political career?
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Doesn't he make about £250k just from his Telegraph work? I'm not going to feel sorry for Boris. He's going to make a mint whatever happens.GIN1138 said:
With Boris though, anything is possible.MP_SE said:
Seems unlikely.GIN1138 said:
Has he had a drink? ITheScreamingEagles said:
t's odd to be conceding defeat to a member of the public... On the Tube! I suppose tonight will effectively be the end of his political career?0 -
Boris only just voting now.0
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Boris almost forgetting to vote!0
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Who do the undecided think the EU are?0
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Notice some of the odds are now 1/10 on remain.0
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I have no doubt this right.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Their own private exit pollsFrancisUrquhart said:
City wide boys have been piling on all day. They have info we don't.Gallowgate said:So what's got everyone so confident of a remain win all of a sudden?
I think the question is whether the extra information they have is accurate or misleading.0 -
Thrasher saying that turnout at least GE level.0
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that made me smile & its especially true when we have no reference points for this unlike a general electionTheScreamingEagles said:0 -
The masochist in me is hoping for a very close night with Remain squeaking through at 8.00 am tomorrow morning on the last count. They are the best footie matches, right? And the possibilities with betfair will be enormous.rcs1000 said:
I have genuinely no idea what the result will be. However, I expect the winner to get 54+% of the vote.tyson said:
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It was reported they were paying over £500,000 for the infoYBarddCwsc said:
I have no doubt this right.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Their own private exit pollsFrancisUrquhart said:
City wide boys have been piling on all day. They have info we don't.Gallowgate said:So what's got everyone so confident of a remain win all of a sudden?
I think the question is whether the extra information they have is accurate or misleading.0 -
So, is there going to be a thread on the council by-election in Sunninghill? Real people, real votes.0
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For remain....but don't tell anybody!tlg86 said:Boris only just voting now.
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You don't need to justify being eligible for a postal vote - you simply ask for one. Easy peasy , I can't understand why everyone doesn't do it.HYUFD said:
20 mins from Banbury to Leamington by train so you might scrape it but if you commute from Warwickshire to London could you not have got a postal vote?SouthamObserver said:So frustrating. Stuck just outside Banbury now. Am not the only one who is missing out. There are a few of us in the same spot, it seems. Remainers, unfortunately. Or maybe there are some shy Leavers too :-)
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Yeah I don't want it to be all over at the first declaration. Where's the fun in that!tyson said:
The masochist in me is hoping for a very close night with Remain squeaking through at 8.00 am tomorrow morning on the last count. They are the best footie matches, right? And the possibilities with betfair will be enormous.rcs1000 said:
I have genuinely no idea what the result will be. However, I expect the winner to get 54+% of the vote.tyson said:0 -
BE-LEAVE!0
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Let's be 'avin' EU!Ave_it said:BE-LEAVE!
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It's Ave_it!!0
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The post is shit in loads of places.peter_from_putney said:
You don't need to justify being eligible for a postal vote - you simply ask for one. Easy peasy , I can't understand why everyone doesn't do it.HYUFD said:
20 mins from Banbury to Leamington by train so you might scrape it but if you commute from Warwickshire to London could you not have got a postal vote?SouthamObserver said:So frustrating. Stuck just outside Banbury now. Am not the only one who is missing out. There are a few of us in the same spot, it seems. Remainers, unfortunately. Or maybe there are some shy Leavers too :-)
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He and his brother both have 4 kids each, surely they can train one of them up?RobD said:
I'm sure the Dimbleclone is being worked on right now.williamglenn said:0 -
Leave takes Gibraltar?RobD said:
Yeah I don't want it to be all over at the first declaration. Where's the fun in that!tyson said:
The masochist in me is hoping for a very close night with Remain squeaking through at 8.00 am tomorrow morning on the last count. They are the best footie matches, right? And the possibilities with betfair will be enormous.rcs1000 said:
I have genuinely no idea what the result will be. However, I expect the winner to get 54+% of the vote.tyson said:
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One went to school with the Moggster himself (not his sons)!GarethoftheVale2 said:
He and his brother both have 4 kids each, surely they can train one of them up?RobD said:
I'm sure the Dimbleclone is being worked on right now.williamglenn said:0 -
You don't have to post it.KentRising said:
The post is shit in loads of places.peter_from_putney said:
You don't need to justify being eligible for a postal vote - you simply ask for one. Easy peasy , I can't understand why everyone doesn't do it.HYUFD said:
20 mins from Banbury to Leamington by train so you might scrape it but if you commute from Warwickshire to London could you not have got a postal vote?SouthamObserver said:So frustrating. Stuck just outside Banbury now. Am not the only one who is missing out. There are a few of us in the same spot, it seems. Remainers, unfortunately. Or maybe there are some shy Leavers too :-)
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Sorry to hear that but it will almost certainly not come down to one vote so never mind, there is always the County Council elections next year!SouthamObserver said:
I thought I'd be back in plenty of time. And would have been but for a lightning strike somewhere on the track. Still, it's my own fault. I just feel very frustrated and incredibly disappointed to miss out. I will end up doing what I thought I'd do when the referendum date was announced - not vote.HYUFD said:
20 mins from Banbury to Leamington by train so you might scrape it but if you commute from Warwickshire to London could you not have got a postal vote?SouthamObserver said:So frustrating. Stuck just outside Banbury now. Am not the only one who is missing out. There are a few of us in the same spot, it seems. Remainers, unfortunately. Or maybe there are some shy Leavers too :-)
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Has he only just made up his mind. Or is it a last minute conversion to REMAIN?tlg86 said:Boris only just voting now.
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8.4 may be value on Leave [feels big to me but others may have more info], but there'll almost certainly be greater value later if they're actually in with a shot.0
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Of course attendees of Slough comp. Part of Bullingdon as well?GarethoftheVale2 said:
He and his brother both have 4 kids each, surely they can train one of them up?RobD said:
I'm sure the Dimbleclone is being worked on right now.williamglenn said:0 -
The YouGov on the day poll is on Sky News at 10pm
NOT AN EXIT POLL0 -
If I know I am going to be away I vote by post but I still like the feeling of voting in person at the polling stationpeter_from_putney said:
You don't need to justify being eligible for a postal vote - you simply ask for one. Easy peasy , I can't understand why everyone doesn't do it.HYUFD said:
20 mins from Banbury to Leamington by train so you might scrape it but if you commute from Warwickshire to London could you not have got a postal vote?SouthamObserver said:So frustrating. Stuck just outside Banbury now. Am not the only one who is missing out. There are a few of us in the same spot, it seems. Remainers, unfortunately. Or maybe there are some shy Leavers too :-)
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I knew there was something missing. It was Ave_it!Ave_it said:BE-LEAVE!
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Ave it (the first on here to call the GE2015 CON maj) says...
Remain 54%
Leave 46%
Boo!0 -
An exit poll in the middle of the day would be very hard to interpret unless it was showing very one-way traffic. You would probably see Leave ahead relatively more retirees would have voted and fewer younger working people. But what sense to make of it?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Their own private exit pollsFrancisUrquhart said:
City wide boys have been piling on all day. They have info we don't.Gallowgate said:So what's got everyone so confident of a remain win all of a sudden?
An exit poll now is another matter. But Leave is no longer now than at breakfast-time.0 -
Peak value must be now, if they do have a shot word will soon spread from the counts.Tissue_Price said:8.4 may be value on Leave [feels big to me but others may have more info], but there'll almost certainly be greater value later if they're actually in with a shot.
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Please let it be a Leave lead.. if only to stir things RIGHT up.TheScreamingEagles said:The YouGov on the day poll is on Sky News at 10pm
NOT AN EXIT POLL0 -
I don't know. I just suspect it'll not be as close - one way or another - as we think.Casino_Royale said:
Either groups who don't traditionally vote come out, and Leave wins it at a canter.
or
People bottle it in the privacy of the polling booth, and it's the other way around.0 -
And total bollocks last year, no?TheScreamingEagles said:The YouGov on the day poll is on Sky News at 10pm
NOT AN EXIT POLL0 -
Good luck with getting that from the poster supporting Andy Burnham. :-)matt said:
FFS please give up. You're wrong and you know it (and if you don't you're a halfwit). Try conceding defeat gracefully.HYUFD said:
If you leave work in London at 6pm you will easily get to Folkestone or Dover by 8pm but builders from that area etc could be doing construction work in London and get back late and they may well vote LeaveKentRising said:@HYUFD
No way many commuters in Folkestone and Dover were expecting to vote after work: these guys get home late and likely would have voted in the morning before catching their train or voted by post.
They're still Remain btw. Generally, Leave is strongest among those who don't work/visit/live in proximity to London.0 -
OldKingCole said:
Has he only just made up his mind. Or is it a last minute conversion to REMAIN?tlg86 said:Boris only just voting now.
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That was a particular stinker at the GE. They can't do any worse this time.TheScreamingEagles said:The YouGov on the day poll is on Sky News at 10pm
NOT AN EXIT POLL0 -
Because of Nissan, Sunderland might not as Leave friendly as people think, that might be the best time to back Leave.Tissue_Price said:8.4 may be value on Leave [feels big to me but others may have more info], but there'll almost certainly be greater value later if they're actually in with a shot.
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We need a closer result than that. EU needs to be shocked by this.Ave_it said:Ave it (the first on here to call the GE2015 CON maj) says...
Remain 54%
Leave 46%
Boo!0 -
Personally, I won't start to get excited unless Sunderland votes at least 62% for LEAVE which now seems very unlikely.weejonnie said:
Quite likely - I hope everyone is keyed up to move their position, one way or the other.GIN1138 said:
I think Sunderland will tell us all we need to know (REMAIN will do vastly better than "expected")alex. said:
We will surely have a pretty good idea long before that, unless it is VERY close? The fact is that unlike a general election we will be able to deduce something from every result - with the important thing in many cases not being who wins in various areas, but what the turnout is. In General Elections it is the marginal seats which are most important, but that is not the case here. If anything marginal constituencies are very unimportant, because a close race can have a turnout of 10% or 90% and it won't make much difference.FrancisUrquhart said:It's strange to think big Ben will.strike 10, the election programmed will roll & then we will have to wait 4-5 hrs being they actually start to say anything about the possible result.
Leave < 50 : pack bags and welcome evermore EU integration
Leave 50-53: Looks like the Brussels gravy train is back on track.
Leave 53-54: No fingernails left.
Leave 54-57: Cameron in stinky bum time
Leave 57+ : Rejoice.0 -
Yup, was fairly accurate at the Indyref though.Wanderer said:
And total bollocks last year, no?TheScreamingEagles said:The YouGov on the day poll is on Sky News at 10pm
NOT AN EXIT POLL0 -
Worth remembering most exit polls are Shi'ite. Prior to GE2010 they were taken with a large dose of salt. John Curtice is a political master, who's got it down to a fine art. But he ain't doing these.Wanderer said:
An exit poll in the middle of the day would be very hard to interpret unless it was showing very one-way traffic. You would probably see Leave ahead relatively more retirees would have voted and fewer younger working people. But what sense to make of it?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Their own private exit pollsFrancisUrquhart said:
City wide boys have been piling on all day. They have info we don't.Gallowgate said:So what's got everyone so confident of a remain win all of a sudden?
An exit poll now is another matter. But Leave is no longer now than at breakfast-time.
That's significant on a tight result.0 -
OK- just a health warning. Considering the newly advised guidance for alcohol consumption is one mediocre glass of wine per day...to get you though to 7.00 am within the advised limit, I would suggest dipping a tissue in the glass and suck out the drips every half an hour.0
