politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The final polling chart

tlg86 said:

SeanT said:

Incidentally my exit poll experience shows, clearly, that exit polls are happening.

It must be those banks and hedge funds. They will be feeding the info back to HQ. So the markets are, presumably, already exhibiting some of the effects.

I hope they are polling places other than Primrose Hill!

Mortimer said:

SeanT said:

El_Dave said:

SeanT said:

Incidentally my exit poll experience shows, clearly, that exit polls are happening.

It must be those banks and hedge funds. They will be feeding the info back to HQ. So the markets are, presumably, already exhibiting some of the effects.

You're sure that lady wasn't just telling for one of the campaigns?

She explicitly said "I'm doing an exit poll". I believed her. She was too young and naive to be that guileful.

Other than councillors, many activists don't actually understand what the point of telling is.

RationalPlan said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

PlatoSaid said:

If PB is anything to go by - there's a significant number of homeless Tory types/others that are very unimpressed with Dave & George. Same elsewhere too.

Which is utterly bonkers, given that Dave got them the referendum they wanted.

Hopefully those who have lost their marbles over this will find them again in the next few months.

Maybe some of them, but the Hardcore, they've hated Dave the day he became leader, he did not want to bang on about Europe.

It's been infuriating to listen them castigating him for everything he's done as if he could have done anything different that they would have been happy with.

It goes from people defending Trump or Putin rather than agree with Dave, or inventing bullshit reasons why they oppose gay equality. "It's not the time" "we should not be distracted, must focus on the recession" etc etc. When of course the changes required were almost cost free and required very little time in Parliament. Take minor reforms to Sunday trading laws and devolving the decision on them to local councils, just an excuse to attack, the same names involved again and again.

It's always been oppose first, then cobble together a reason.

Of course this will continue on with the right wanting to control the party and come in and do what differently? Apart from see Europe burn to the ground that is, be harsher, meaner harder on the poor? What do they actually want, do they really know anymore. I'm not sure they have any guiding principles anymore other than a hankering by some of them (luckily just not to many) to be more like the Republicans in the US and actually want to start their own version of the culture wars.

Anyway Dave is going one way or another, hopefully in 2019. It's all about the succession now.

Gove is too much the school SWOT, that even other SWOTS thought he was too uncool to hang around with. I liked him but he's gone down in my estimation for such enthusiastic deployment of blatant statistical lies. I thought he operated on a higher standard than others.

Boris the duplicitous little shit should not be let anywhere near it. Priti Patel is to harsh and I feel she feels contempt for the poor and those who don't succeed in life, no warmth whatsoever. A problem that Mr Osborne has though I'm sympathetic to his desire to build infrastructure.

Of the Old guard Ms May may do it, but might come across as a bit severe.

I have no opinion on Sajid, does he have a personality? I can't get a feel of him. Crabb seems interesting but he's only been around 5 minutes. I don't really no anyone else.

williamglenn said:

SeanT said:

It must be those banks and hedge funds. They will be feeding the info back to HQ. So the markets are, presumably, already exhibiting some of the effects.

If they're basing their trades on polling data from Primrose Hill it explains a lot.

FF43 said:

williamglenn said:

FF43 said:

pinkrose said:

WOW! This is a great read and the case those on the Left should've made for Leave.

I am very sympathetic. The problem is, those people have no-one standing up for them. The remain establishment aren't interested, while the likes of Johnson, Gove and probably Farage want to get out of the EU because it fetters capitalism too much.

The left in Britain still hasn't grasped some basic truths that Germany's left understood 15 years ago. In a globalising world you can only protect wages by increasing the value added by labour, and holding down the cost of living does more for living standards than allowing wage inflation to take hold.

I agree with this and I would like David Cameron or his successor to think about how those left behind by globalisation can be supported. I think leaving the EU is offering false hope, by not tackling the real issues. Unfortunately I think Mr Cameron will be only too glad to move on.

Jobabob said:

@Stark

The waycist thing was downright weird.

Some clown on here posted – apparently in all seriousness – that this campaign "came down to the racists vs the waycists".

I was, and am, none the wiser.

malcolmg said:

JessieShamus said:

kjohnw said:

if Leave do manage to somehow pull this off, the egg on faces is going to be huge, and the markets will be in chaos tomorrow

Funny you should say that...

"City banks - including UBS, HSBC, Morgan Stanley and Bank of America Merrill Lynch - have written to clients telling them to prepare for disruption once the EU referendum result is declared."

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/markets/article-3655935/Pound-hits-2106-high-against-dollar-traders-bet-Remain-banks-warn-result-paralyse-markets.html

Ha Ha Ha , that bunch of shysters could not run a bath

Tabman said:

PClipp said:

I agree with almost all of that, Mr Charles. And the identification of government circles with big business was one of the reasons I too voted for Leave.

I think where you go wrong is to look back to some golden age when the Conservative Party was anything else. They sometimes pretended to be on the side of the "little people" - but that was always the territory of the Liberals.

Perhaps we are indeed on the point of seeing a major shake-up of the party political system?

It won't be long before there are more self-employed people than public sector employees. That represents a massive opportunity for a party prepared to be economically and socially liberal, and on the side of the relatively powerless.

IanB2 said:

El_Dave said:

Encouraging piece from Mr Hannan:

"Today’s vote, although momentous and historic, won’t lead to anything very dramatic.

I have no idea which side will win. But one thing that seems clear is that it will be close. The losing side will represent a minority, but a large minority. In a democracy, large minorities can’t be ignored."

http://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2016/06/daniel-hannan-today-for-once-we-can-choose-our-own-future-outside-the-eu.html

Encouraging for whom? That is a close as a concession-before-the-result comment from a politician as ever you are going to see...

Wanderer said:

Tabman said:

Recidivist said:

It would be the Conservative Party and it would be bang on the nation's sweet spot.

It should retain the assets of the old Conservative Party but it would need an element of re-branding.

It would get my vote.

SouthamObserver said:

Charles said:

I thought it worth posting why I voted Leave as it is probably against my financial self-interest (although @rcs1000 you'd better be wrong about London house prices!)

Fundamentally, I've become increasingly concerned about some of the gaps opening up in this country between those who are elected to govern, and the people who they ignore and leave behind. London has always had a distinct character, but over the last 20 years, this has become increasingly pronounced.

Inevitably this has dramatically influenced the way that politicians think - for good or ill - they spend most of their time in London. Moreover, they are disconnected from the stresses and strains of ordinary life; they don't have to worry about pensions, for example, in the way that ordinary people do. From the conservative party's perspective, it's been deeply disturbing the way that they have been entranced by the glamour of dealing with the CEOs of multinationals. The conservatives are - or should be - the party of the strivers, the workers, the people who want to better themselves; the small businessmen and women who make this country great. While it might be nice to hob nob with the international elite who run big companies, those people and organisations have no interest in what is good for the UK and will happily bend and exploit the rules to maximise the increase in their share price. (To be clear, one view of the world says that is acceptable. I personally believe that a healthy capitalist system is critical to long-term shareholder value - the MNCs are trading short term gain for long-term challenges).

It is this fault line in the country that needs to be addressed. Voting to Leave, was, for me, a way for the people of this country to show the Westminster clique who is in charge. It was a way to force them to be accountable for their actions. It was a way to make them think about what is right for all of the people of this country, not just to focus on the headline numbers and ignore those who get left behind.

We can, and should, be better than that as a party and as a country. The Conservatives used to be the party of the One Nation. They have forgotten how to do that - and I fear they have forgotten what it even means.

To lead is to serve. Our leaders need to be taught that they are not in charge. Vote Leave: take control.

Very good post. I don't agree with all of it, but I wish this case had been made in the campaign. Just as I wish we had heard more from the left on the issues identified by the Guardian writer who is voting no.

Barnesian said:

RationalPlan said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

PlatoSaid said:

If PB is anything to go by - there's a significant number of homeless Tory types/others that are very unimpressed with Dave & George. Same elsewhere too.

Which is utterly bonkers, given that Dave got them the referendum they wanted.

Hopefully those who have lost their marbles over this will find them again in the next few months.

It's always been oppose first, then cobble together a reason.

Of course this will continue on with the right wanting to control the party and come in and do what differently? Apart from see Europe burn to the ground that is, be harsher, meaner harder on the poor? What do they actually want, do they really know anymore. I'm not sure they have any guiding principles anymore other than a hankering by some of them (luckily just not to many) to be more like the Republicans in the US and actually want to start their own version of the culture wars.

Anyway Dave is going one way or another, hopefully in 2019. It's all about the succession now.

Gove is too much the school SWOT, that even other SWOTS thought he was too uncool to hang around with. I liked him but he's gone down in my estimation for such enthusiastic deployment of blatant statistical lies. I thought he operated on a higher standard than others.

Boris the duplicitous little shit should not be let anywhere near it. Priti Patel is to harsh and I feel she feels contempt for the poor and those who don't succeed in life, no warmth whatsoever. A problem that Mr Osborne has though I'm sympathetic to his desire to build infrastructure.

Of the Old guard Ms May may do it, but might come across as a bit severe.

I have no opinion on Sajid, does he have a personality? I can't get a feel of him. Crabb seems interesting but he's only been around 5 minutes. I don't really no anyone else.

Theresa May is now clear favorite for next Tory leader on Betfair.

Tabman said:

SandyRentool said:

MarqueeMark said:

Welcome to all the old hands returning and especially to the lurkers delurking. Great to have your take on this not-many-times-in-a-lifetime event.

Absolutely. It's great to have more posters posting. Please all stay after the dust has settled.

If only we could have a few more retweeters on PB...

Part of the reason I rarely come here is the popularity of the site. When I first started posting back in 2004 (yes, really!) there were so few posters it was very easy to keep up with a thread and get a conversation flowing. It's almost impossible now with so many comments to get through.

Mortimer said:

Tabman said:

PClipp said:

I agree with almost all of that, Mr Charles. And the identification of government circles with big business was one of the reasons I too voted for Leave.

I think where you go wrong is to look back to some golden age when the Conservative Party was anything else. They sometimes pretended to be on the side of the "little people" - but that was always the territory of the Liberals.

Perhaps we are indeed on the point of seeing a major shake-up of the party political system?

It won't be long before there are more self-employed people than public sector employees. That represents a massive opportunity for a party prepared to be economically and socially liberal, and on the side of the relatively powerless.

Good point.

Dan H can be leader, and Charles can write the speeches. Sandpit and I will come up with the swift rebuttal department.

We might even let TSE in - after a Gaullist delay, of course.

Mortimer said:

Tabman said:

PClipp said:

I agree with almost all of that, Mr Charles. And the identification of government circles with big business was one of the reasons I too voted for Leave.

I think where you go wrong is to look back to some golden age when the Conservative Party was anything else. They sometimes pretended to be on the side of the "little people" - but that was always the territory of the Liberals.

Perhaps we are indeed on the point of seeing a major shake-up of the party political system?

It won't be long before there are more self-employed people than public sector employees. That represents a massive opportunity for a party prepared to be economically and socially liberal, and on the side of the relatively powerless.

Good point.

Dan H can be leader, and Charles can write the speeches. Sandpit and I will come up with the swift rebuttal department.

We might even let TSE in - after a Gaullist delay, of course.

matt said:

AndyJS said:

mwjfrome17 said:

My experience today. Have an hours daily tube journey to Parsons Green SW6 from Walthamstow. Been there and back already. Have seen many hundreds of people wearing a Vote Remain or Im In sticker, but not a single one for leave. Just voted at about the same time as I did in the London Mayoral election. Today roughly half the names in my (small) street had a mark by them. In May I was the only one.

Wearing a Leave sticker in London probably wouldn't be a pleasant experience.

You really believe that?

DearPB said:

Wanderer said:

Tabman said:

Recidivist said:

It would be the Conservative Party and it would be bang on the nation's sweet spot.

It should retain the assets of the old Conservative Party but it would need an element of re-branding.

It would get my vote.

I've been thinking about the possible realignment of politics a lot - hard to see how the Tories reunite after the bile and invective that's been thrown about (and as a Tory I know it's even worse behind closed doors than in public). How do associations unite around Remain MPs for example - I've heard my MP called a liar to his face at a party event.

The coalescing of a centrist party (made possible by the lurch of Labour to the left and the collapse of the Lib Dems who can't claim that ground for themselves) has appeal. But I keep coming back to this; political parties in this country are broad coalitions based on value systems - two Tories might arrive at very different policy positions on a subject but they usually share some similar values.

There are politicians on the left and in the centre; Liz Kendall, David Laws etc. who I would probably agree with on almost every policy position, but I don't share their values and they don't share mine - how could we exist as a political party?

Alistair said:

Recidivist said:

currystar said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

John_M said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

PlatoSaid said:

If PB is anything to go by - there's a significant number of homeless Tory types/others that are very unimpressed with Dave & George. Same elsewhere too.

Which is utterly bonkers, given that Dave got them the referendum they wanted.

Hopefully those who have lost their marbles over this will find them again in the next few months.

Richard, you really are going to have to learn that calling people racists, idiots and crazies will not endear you to your target.

I didn't want a referendum - we have bigger fish to fry. I'm glad I got one, but I'll give Cameron no credit for it - it was an act of pure political calculation in order to win an election.

He's given us a referendum and then told us there is only one answer, and done so in a way that has lost his credibility.

In other words you disagree with Cameron's position in the referendum (and, I suspect, resent his effectiveness). Fair enough. I disagree with Michael Gove on this. But I'm not going to lay into him, say he's 'lost all credibility', let alone go into a huff if he remains in a senior position or even becomes PM. Sane people can disagree on the balance of arguments in a complex issue like this which has multiple facets.

Great post, Im afraid all the Cameron haters are in disbelief at the polls. They were so looking forward to a Cameron slagging fest tomorrow.

If there is a big 10% or more lead for Remain Cameron would have the power to purge all the eurosceptics and assorted right wing types and position the Tories as the real sensible centre party. Not saying he would, but he could. And if he did, it would make me a lot more likely to vote Tory at the next election.

55% Remain is not a big win.

KentRising said:

SouthamObserver said:

Hopefully Brendan and all those others on the right who are now so keen to empower the working class after supporting policies that do them active harm will start to advocate PR. It's the only thing that will make any practical difference as it will make working class votes important again.

Coming round to the idea.

williamglenn said:

FF43 said:

williamglenn said:

FF43 said:

pinkrose said:

WOW! This is a great read and the case those on the Left should've made for Leave.

I am very sympathetic. The problem is, those people have no-one standing up for them. The remain establishment aren't interested, while the likes of Johnson, Gove and probably Farage want to get out of the EU because it fetters capitalism too much.

The left in Britain still hasn't grasped some basic truths that Germany's left understood 15 years ago. In a globalising world you can only protect wages by increasing the value added by labour, and holding down the cost of living does more for living standards than allowing wage inflation to take hold.

I agree with this and I would like David Cameron or his successor to think about how those left behind by globalisation can be supported. I think leaving the EU is offering false hope, by not tackling the real issues. Unfortunately I think Mr Cameron will be only too glad to move on.

Why unfortunately? If we can collectively stop wasting so much political energy on discussing whether we should be in or out of Europe then we would have more chance of identifying and solving the real issues. This, I believe, is the fundamental frustration that people like Cameron have with the hard-core Eurosceptics: It's just so much wasted time. Let's accept that we are in the EU to stay, and get on with it.

SeanT said:

Barnesian said:

RationalPlan said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

PlatoSaid said:

If PB is anything to go by - there's a significant number of homeless Tory types/others that are very unimpressed with Dave & George. Same elsewhere too.

Which is utterly bonkers, given that Dave got them the referendum they wanted.

Hopefully those who have lost their marbles over this will find them again in the next few months.

Maybe some of them, but the Hardcore, they've hated Dave the day he became leader, he did not want to bang on about Europe.

It's been infuriating to listen them castigating him for everything he's done as if he could have done anything different that they would have been happy with.


Of the Old guard Ms May may do it, but might come across as a bit severe.

I have no opinion on Sajid, does he have a personality? I can't get a feel of him. Crabb seems interesting but he's only been around 5 minutes. I don't really no anyone else.

Theresa May is now clear favorite for next Tory leader on Betfair.

Oh god, she's awful. Please not Theresa May. Yet I can see the logic...

Bojo has blown it, this time around, and probably forever. Gove Nope. Osborne no way, he's hated by too many MPs for The Bondage Budget, and is limitlessly unpopular in the country at large. Hammond and Sajid are busted.

A curious lack of talent suddenly emerges.

Cicero said:

Tabman said:

SandyRentool said:

MarqueeMark said:

Welcome to all the old hands returning and especially to the lurkers delurking. Great to have your take on this not-many-times-in-a-lifetime event.

Absolutely. It's great to have more posters posting. Please all stay after the dust has settled.

If only we could have a few more retweeters on PB...

Part of the reason I rarely come here is the popularity of the site. When I first started posting back in 2004 (yes, really!) there were so few posters it was very easy to keep up with a thread and get a conversation flowing. It's almost impossible now with so many comments to get through.

Hi Tabbers: agreed, and I have felt pretty detached from UK politics for sometime. If these polls are right, it is a real kick in the teeth for the Murdoch-Mail-Desmond press, despite the slightly hedged bets from the ST and the Mail on Sunday. Maybe the public weakness of these propaganda sheets will move the idea of a genuine UK political realignment front and centre?

Must catch up when next over in the yuck.

JennyFreeman said:

this mi15 plot. When's the erasure supposed to take place? at the count? If not then how and where.

aww bless. it's quite sweet really.

Jobabob said:

KentRising said:

Jobabob said:

nunu said:

surbiton said:

Birmingham also surprises me with 48-52 for Leave.

I think leave relying on cities like Birmingham should have rang alarm bells. A campaign based 80% on immigration is not going to win cities like Birmingham, Bradford which was also predicted to be narrowly leave. Its not that these places don't want controlled immigration they do, they are just not going to vote for a side that bangs on about that to the detriment of everything elese.

Another great post by you.
In the final analysis, assuming a Remain victory, it will be the overplaying of the immigration card, and the idiocy of the hateful poster campaign that will be seen (rightly or wrongly) as the turning point. To think some on here defended it. It was a shameful, squalid campaign.

In your - relentless, relentless - view.

Both campaigns were squalid.

Only one of the campaigns published a poster of people with dark faces in a queue, with the message Breaking Point over the top of it.

Moses_ said:

Good poll for remain.
Bend over because we are about to get the dockside hooker treatment from Junker and pals.

Oh and there will never be another referendum. The EU will make absolutely certain of that and very very quickly.

John_M said:

SeanT said:

David_Evershed said:

Some investment banks and hedge funds have commissioned exit polls during the day today.

Sterlind has strengthened 1.1% so far today.

The FTSE 100 is up 1.15% so far today.

Ergo the vote is for REMAIN.

Talking of which, here's my experience

I voted in a leafy corner of Primrose Hill.

On the way out I was exit polled - yes! - by a pretty girl. I had a quick peek at her clipboard; it showed REMAIN outnumbering LEAVE by about four or five to one. Not unexpected in that neck of the woods. She said they'd been "quite busy", but she was barely 18 so possibly had nothing to judge it by.

Then on the way out I was interviewed by German radio, and I explained to the good people of Germany why I voted the way I did.

For the record, I summoned blood, stiffened sinews, and voted LEAVE, in full and stoical expectation of defeat. But also in happy anticipation of being able to blame quisling, treacherous REMAINIANS for every awful thing the EU does for the next 15 years.

And we will blame them. Oh yes, we will.

Chapeau old chap. I owe you an apology. I confidently predicted to m'daughter (who is a huge fan of your work) that you would buckle under the peer pressure. So sorry for doubting your intestinal fortitude.

TheScreamingEagles said:

RealBritain said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Real recovery by leave. Now back at 5.5

Is there anything remotely concrete to be moving these figures ?

'Exit' polls.

TheScreamingEagles said:

RealBritain said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Real recovery by leave. Now back at 5.5

Is there anything remotely concrete to be moving these figures ?

'Exit' polls.

nunu said:

KentRising said:

SouthamObserver said:

Hopefully Brendan and all those others on the right who are now so keen to empower the working class after supporting policies that do them active harm will start to advocate PR. It's the only thing that will make any practical difference as it will make working class votes important again.

Coming round to the idea.

I have come round after being the traditional Tory that was strongly for fptp.

Bob__Sykes said:

Moses_ said:

Good poll for remain.
Bend over because we are about to get the dockside hooker treatment from Junker and pals.

Oh and there will never be another referendum. The EU will make absolutely certain of that and very very quickly.

If we do get the "dockside hooker" treatment (and I'm not convinced), then we might not need another referendum - a general election may sort it.

Charles said:

Pulpstar said:

SandyRentool said:

Here's something that will cheer us all up:

"Ex-Hartlepool MP and former business secretary Peter Mandelson insisted there’ll be no “magic bullet” by leaving the European Union during a visit to Teesside.

Labour Peer Lord Mandelson – also a former trade and industry secretary and European trade commissioner – spoke to 400 delegates and guests at NEPIC's annual conference and exhibition at Wynyard Hall on Wednesday, attended by Tees Business.

He told firms from the region’s process and chemical industry that leaving the EU would be like leaving a members’ club – and turning our back on all the benefits that come with it.

“The European Union is a bit like a club, and it has very strong facilities,” said Lord Mandelson during a 20-minute speech."

When he says 'club' with 'facilities' I guess he doesn't mean a Working Men's Club with two full size snooker tables and a bar skittles table.

Two full size snooker tables

Two bars and a pool table at my one

my club has a billard room but no table. Does that count?

Barnesian said:

RationalPlan said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

PlatoSaid said:

If PB is anything to go by - there's a significant number of homeless Tory types/others that are very unimpressed with Dave & George. Same elsewhere too.

.

Maybe some of them, but the Hardcore, they've hated Dave the day he became leader, he did not want to bang on about Europe.

It's been infuriating to listen them castigating him for everything he's done as if he could have done anything different that they would have been happy with.

It goes from people defending Trump or Putin rather than agree with Dave, or inventing bullshit reasons why they oppose gay equality. "It's not the time" "we should not be distracted, must focus on the recession" etc etc. When of course the changes required were almost cost free and required very little time in Parliament. Take minor reforms to Sunday trading laws and devolving the decision on them to local councils, just an excuse to attack, the same names involved again and again.

It's always been oppose first, then cobble together a reason.

Of course this will continue on with the right wanting to control the party and come in and do what differently? Apart from see Europe burn to the ground that is, be harsher, meaner harder on the poor? What do they actually want, do they really know anymore. I'm not sure they have any guiding principles anymore other than a hankering by some of them (luckily just not to many) to be more like the Republicans in the US and actually want to start their own version of the culture wars.

Anyway Dave is going one way or another, hopefully in 2019. It's all about the succession now.

Gove is too much the school SWOT, that even other SWOTS thought he was too uncool to hang around with. I liked him but he's gone down in my estimation for such enthusiastic deployment of blatant statistical lies. I thought he operated on a higher standard than others.

Boris the duplicitous little shit should not be let anywhere near it. Priti Patel is to harsh and I feel she feels contempt for the poor and those who don't succeed in life, no warmth whatsoever. A problem that Mr Osborne has though I'm sympathetic to his desire to build infrastructure.

Of the Old guard Ms May may do it, but might come across as a bit severe.

I have no opinion on Sajid, does he have a personality? I can't get a feel of him. Crabb seems interesting but he's only been around 5 minutes. I don't really no anyone else.

Theresa May is now clear favorite for next Tory leader on Betfair.

taffys said:

Weather forecast shows London being pounded by storms later today.

The almighty, it seems, is a leaver

TOPPING said:

John_M said:

SeanT said:

David_Evershed said:

Some investment banks and hedge funds have commissioned exit polls during the day today.

Sterlind has strengthened 1.1% so far today.

The FTSE 100 is up 1.15% so far today.

Ergo the vote is for REMAIN.

Talking of which, here's my experience

I voted in a leafy corner of Primrose Hill.

On the way out I was exit polled - yes! - by a pretty girl. I had a quick peek at her clipboard; it showed REMAIN outnumbering LEAVE by about four or five to one. Not unexpected in that neck of the woods. She said they'd been "quite busy", but she was barely 18 so possibly had nothing to judge it by.

Then on the way out I was interviewed by German radio, and I explained to the good people of Germany why I voted the way I did.

For the record, I summoned blood, stiffened sinews, and voted LEAVE, in full and stoical expectation of defeat. But also in happy anticipation of being able to blame quisling, treacherous REMAINIANS for every awful thing the EU does for the next 15 years.

And we will blame them. Oh yes, we will.

Chapeau old chap. I owe you an apology. I confidently predicted to m'daughter (who is a huge fan of your work) that you would buckle under the peer pressure. So sorry for doubting your intestinal fortitude.

You don't think @SeanT actually voted Leave do you?!

He..is..a..writer..of..fiction.

Of course it's a much better story to say he's voted Leave.

Actually, he voted Remain. I heard all about it on Deutschland FM.

Bob__Sykes said:

Moses_ said:

Good poll for remain.
Bend over because we are about to get the dockside hooker treatment from Junker and pals.

Oh and there will never be another referendum. The EU will make absolutely certain of that and very very quickly.

If we do get the "dockside hooker" treatment (and I'm not convinced), then we might not need another referendum - a general election may sort it.

williamglenn said:

FF43 said:

williamglenn said:

FF43 said:

pinkrose said:

WOW! This is a great read and the case those on the Left should've made for Leave.

I am very sympathetic. The problem is, those people have no-one standing up for them. The remain establishment aren't interested, while the likes of Johnson, Gove and probably Farage want to get out of the EU because it fetters capitalism too much.

The left in Britain still hasn't grasped some basic truths that Germany's left understood 15 years ago. In a globalising world you can only protect wages by increasing the value added by labour, and holding down the cost of living does more for living standards than allowing wage inflation to take hold.

I agree with this and I would like David Cameron or his successor to think about how those left behind by globalisation can be supported. I think leaving the EU is offering false hope, by not tackling the real issues. Unfortunately I think Mr Cameron will be only too glad to move on.

Why unfortunately? If we can collectively stop wasting so much political energy on discussing whether we should be in or out of Europe then we would have more chance of identifying and solving the real issues. This, I believe, is the fundamental frustration that people like Cameron have with the hard-core Eurosceptics: It's just so much wasted time. Let's accept that we are in the EU to stay, and get on with it.

SeanT said:

El_Dave said:

IanB2 said:

dyedwoolie said:

tlg86 said:

SeanT said:

Incidentally my exit poll experience shows, clearly, that exit polls are happening.

It must be those banks and hedge funds. They will be feeding the info back to HQ. So the markets are, presumably, already exhibiting some of the effects.

I hope they are polling places other than Primrose Hill!

The very definition of comfort polling!
I expect El Presidente Juncker will be having a celebratory drink or 15 tonight

Anyone doing an exit poll who sends someone to Primrose Hill seriously doesn't know what they are doing. Even if you try to cover a spread of strong-remain and strong-leave areas, you have a devil of a job with the weighting and your result depends more on your assumptions than the actual data. The only sensible approach is to find as many differing expected-50/50 areas as you can and then see what results you get.

It may be that SeanT's neighbours just want to get addresses of undesirables.

Alternatively a random pretty girl saw famous "Primrose Hill Borders" thriller writer S K Tremayne hoving into view, and took her one chance to actually talk to him, and maybe flirt with him, by pretending she was doing "an exit poll".

She succeeded, god bless her.

taffys said:

I was, and am, none the wiser.

Yeah right...Jo Coxgasm supporters have more or less implied that anybody that votes leave is a racist.

John_M said:

TOPPING said:

John_M said:

SeanT said:

David_Evershed said:

Some investment banks and hedge funds have commissioned exit polls during the day today.

Sterlind has strengthened 1.1% so far today.

The FTSE 100 is up 1.15% so far today.

Ergo the vote is for REMAIN.

Talking of which, here's my experience

I voted in a leafy corner of Primrose Hill.

On the way out I was exit polled - yes! - by a pretty girl. I had a quick peek at her clipboard; it showed REMAIN outnumbering LEAVE by about four or five to one. Not unexpected in that neck of the woods. She said they'd been "quite busy", but she was barely 18 so possibly had nothing to judge it by.

Then on the way out I was interviewed by German radio, and I explained to the good people of Germany why I voted the way I did.

For the record, I summoned blood, stiffened sinews, and voted LEAVE, in full and stoical expectation of defeat. But also in happy anticipation of being able to blame quisling, treacherous REMAINIANS for every awful thing the EU does for the next 15 years.

And we will blame them. Oh yes, we will.

Chapeau old chap. I owe you an apology. I confidently predicted to m'daughter (who is a huge fan of your work) that you would buckle under the peer pressure. So sorry for doubting your intestinal fortitude.

You don't think @SeanT actually voted Leave do you?!

He..is..a..writer..of..fiction.

Of course it's a much better story to say he's voted Leave.

Actually, he voted Remain. I heard all about it on Deutschland FM.

Sean is an English gentleman. A gentleman's word is his bond. I would never doubt him. Of course, if it ever came out that he had suffered a momentary lapse of candour, it would, of course, have to be the the glass of whisky, the revolver and a significant nod towards the PB library.

FF43 said:

williamglenn said:

FF43 said:

pinkrose said:

WOW! This is a great read and the case those on the Left should've made for Leave.

I am very sympathetic. The problem is, those people have no-one standing up for them. The remain establishment aren't interested, while the likes of Johnson, Gove and probably Farage want to get out of the EU because it fetters capitalism too much.

The left in Britain still hasn't grasped some basic truths that Germany's left understood 15 years ago. In a globalising world you can only protect wages by increasing the value added by labour, and holding down the cost of living does more for living standards than allowing wage inflation to take hold.

I agree with this and I would like David Cameron or his successor to think about how those left behind by globalisation can be supported. I think leaving the EU is offering false hope, by not tackling the real issues. Unfortunately I think Mr Cameron will be only too glad to move on.

Luckyguy1983 said:

DaemonBarber said:

Lolz if it is 55 vs 45
Mirror of indyref, the conspiracy theories will be off the chart

What exactly do you mean by conspiracy theories? A £9 million taxpayer funded document was produced, the voter registration period was extended for 2 days to cover for two hours, the PM did use his office (oh, minus crest) to campaign for Remain during the purdah period. These aren't conspiracy theories, they're conspiracy facts.