Incidentally my exit poll experience shows, clearly, that exit polls are happening.
It must be those banks and hedge funds. They will be feeding the info back to HQ. So the markets are, presumably, already exhibiting some of the effects.
I hope they are polling places other than Primrose Hill!
The very definition of comfort polling! I expect El Presidente Juncker will be having a celebratory drink or 15 tonight
Anyone doing an exit poll who sends someone to Primrose Hill seriously doesn't know what they are doing. Even if you try to cover a spread of strong-remain and strong-leave areas, you have a devil of a job with the weighting and your result depends more on your assumptions than the actual data. The only sensible approach is to find as many differing expected-50/50 areas as you can and then see what results you get.
It may be that SeanT's neighbours just want to get addresses of undesirables.
Alternatively a random pretty girl saw famous "Primrose Hill Borders" thriller writer S K Tremayne hoving into view, and took her one chance to actually talk to him, and maybe flirt with him, by pretending she was doing "an exit poll".
She succeeded, god bless her.
That'll be it
Primrose Hill Gazette exclusive: Primrose Hill Votes Remain! By Pretty Cub Reporter.
Hopefully Brendan and all those others on the right who are now so keen to empower the working class after supporting policies that do them active harm will start to advocate PR. It's the only thing that will make any practical difference as it will make working class votes important again.
Coming round to the idea.
I have come round after being the traditional Tory that was strongly for fptp.
In all seriousness, the only way to make working class votes really count is to change the voting system. All those who want forgotten voices to be heard have to engage with this.
Is there any evidence that introducing PR dramatically increases turnout at elections? I suppose it could be difficult to disentangle from the trend of decreasing participation in recent decades. I still prefer the constituency link...
Participation in elections especially local does seem to be higher in those countries with proportional systems, FWIW
You can have a constituency link with PR, either via multi-member constituencies Irish-style or with the constituency plus top-up system recommended by Jenkins and similar to that used in Scotland and for the GLA
Presumably the Betfair moves are mostly trading/profit-taking activity. But intriguing that the private "exit" polling might be producing results at variance with the Populous/IPSOS polls earlier today.
"With the size of counting areas varying dramatically, there are some results which are a lot more important than others. For instance, Birmingham accounts for 1.5 per cent of all voters and is expected to be one of the closest-run races of the night. Its results will be out at 4am and could be one of the biggest events of the whole evening."
Sean is an English gentleman. A gentleman's word is his bond. I would never doubt him. Of course, if it ever came out that he had suffered a momentary lapse of candour, it would, of course, have to be the the glass of whisky, the revolver and a significant nod towards the PB library.
Some investment banks and hedge funds have commissioned exit polls during the day today.
Sterlind has strengthened 1.1% so far today.
The FTSE 100 is up 1.15% so far today.
Ergo the vote is for REMAIN.
Talking of which, here's my experience
I voted in a leafy corner of Primrose Hill.
On the way out I was exit polled - yes! - by a pretty girl. I had a quick peek at her clipboard; it showed REMAIN outnumbering LEAVE by about four or five to one. Not unexpected in that neck of the woods. She said they'd been "quite busy", but she was barely 18 so possibly had nothing to judge it by.
Then on the way out I was interviewed by German radio, and I explained to the good people of Germany why I voted the way I did.
For the record, I summoned blood, stiffened sinews, and voted LEAVE, in full and stoical expectation of defeat. But also in happy anticipation of being able to blame quisling, treacherous REMAINIANS for every awful thing the EU does for the next 15 years.
And we will blame them. Oh yes, we will.
Chapeau old chap. I owe you an apology. I confidently predicted to m'daughter (who is a huge fan of your work) that you would buckle under the peer pressure. So sorry for doubting your intestinal fortitude.
You don't think @SeanT actually voted Leave do you?!
He..is..a..writer..of..fiction.
Of course it's a much better story to say he's voted Leave.
Actually, he voted Remain. I heard all about it on Deutschland FM.
Sean is an English gentleman. A gentleman's word is his bond. I would never doubt him. Of course, if it ever came out that he had suffered a momentary lapse of candour, it would, of course, have to be the the glass of whisky, the revolver and a significant nod towards the PB library.
Isn't he Cornish? That's not English.
Pfft, they got spanked back in the 7th century. Not my fault if they haven't adapted to the harsh realities of Anglicisation. Hail Hengist and Horsa!
My experience today. Have an hours daily tube journey to Parsons Green SW6 from Walthamstow. Been there and back already. Have seen many hundreds of people wearing a Vote Remain or Im In sticker, but not a single one for leave. Just voted at about the same time as I did in the London Mayoral election. Today roughly half the names in my (small) street had a mark by them. In May I was the only one.
Wearing a Leave sticker in London probably wouldn't be a pleasant experience.
You really believe that?
I believe that everybody in London not wearing an In sticker has voted Leave.... It's about as valid.
if Leave do manage to somehow pull this off, the egg on faces is going to be huge, and the markets will be in chaos tomorrow
Funny you should say that...
"City banks - including UBS, HSBC, Morgan Stanley and Bank of America Merrill Lynch - have written to clients telling them to prepare for disruption once the EU referendum result is declared."
Ha Ha Ha , that bunch of shysters could not run a bath
Wotcha, Mr. G., there are many topics that you and I disagree on, but on one I think we are united - the malignant effect of these international banks.
A few years ago Goldman Sachs was caught out selling an investment product that they themselves were betting against. How that company is still allowed to do business in the UK is beyond me. I read yesterday that the chap in charge of their division that was responsible for rigging the Greek figures that enabled them to supposedly qualify for admission to the Euro was none other than our present governor of the Bank of England.
We are told that unless we do what they say these crooks will feck off to Frankfurt or some where. As far as I am concerned they can feck off to wherever they like and feck up someone else's economy.
We need a banking sector, of course we do, but let us have one that is honest, not the bunch of crooks we seem to be stuck with.
With their alumnus running most of the world's central banks, including ours, I find such a prospect unlikely.
Some investment banks and hedge funds have commissioned exit polls during the day today.
Sterlind has strengthened 1.1% so far today.
The FTSE 100 is up 1.15% so far today.
Ergo the vote is for REMAIN.
Talking of which, here's my experience
I voted in a leafy corner of Primrose Hill.
On the way out I was exit polled - yes! - by a pretty girl. I had a quick peek at her clipboard; it showed REMAIN outnumbering LEAVE by about four or five to one. Not unexpected in that neck of the woods. She said they'd been "quite busy", but she was barely 18 so possibly had nothing to judge it by.
Then on the way out I was interviewed by German radio, and I explained to the good people of Germany why I voted the way I did.
For the record, I summoned blood, stiffened sinews, and voted LEAVE, in full and stoical expectation of defeat. But also in happy anticipation of being able to blame quisling, treacherous REMAINIANS for every awful thing the EU does for the next 15 years.
And we will blame them. Oh yes, we will.
Chapeau old chap. I owe you an apology. I confidently predicted to m'daughter (who is a huge fan of your work) that you would buckle under the peer pressure. So sorry for doubting your intestinal fortitude.
You don't think @SeanT actually voted Leave do you?!
He..is..a..writer..of..fiction.
Of course it's a much better story to say he's voted Leave.
Actually, he voted Remain. I heard all about it on Deutschland FM.
Sean is an English gentleman. A gentleman's word is his bond. I would never doubt him. Of course, if it ever came out that he had suffered a momentary lapse of candour, it would, of course, have to be the the glass of whisky, the revolver and a significant nod towards the PB library.
Isn't he Cornish? That's not English.
He's Devonshire-born. All cream-tea and sand rather than true Cornish gritstone.
Some clown on here posted – apparently in all seriousness – that this campaign "came down to the racists vs the waycists".
I was, and am, none the wiser.
Waycist is a great moron detector.
I assume that it falls out of Viz and the Student Grant strip there. I agree that it's a moron detector, although Bliar and EUSSR are pretty infallible as well.
WOW! This is a great read and the case those on the Left should've made for Leave.
I am very sympathetic. The problem is, those people have no-one standing up for them. The remain establishment aren't interested, while the likes of Johnson, Gove and probably Farage want to get out of the EU because it fetters capitalism too much.
The left in Britain still hasn't grasped some basic truths that Germany's left understood 15 years ago. In a globalising world you can only protect wages by increasing the value added by labour, and holding down the cost of living does more for living standards than allowing wage inflation to take hold.
I agree with this and I would like David Cameron or his successor to think about how those left behind by globalisation can be supported. I think leaving the EU is offering false hope, by not tackling the real issues. Unfortunately I think Mr Cameron will be only too glad to move on.
"I would like David Cameron or his successor to think about how those left behind by globalisation can be supported." So would I - since I have become one of them.
WOW! This is a great read and the case those on the Left should've made for Leave.
I am very sympathetic. The problem is, those people have no-one standing up for them. The remain establishment aren't interested, while the likes of Johnson, Gove and probably Farage want to get out of the EU because it fetters capitalism too much.
The left in Britain still hasn't grasped some basic truths that Germany's left understood 15 years ago. In a globalising world you can only protect wages by increasing the value added by labour, and holding down the cost of living does more for living standards than allowing wage inflation to take hold.
I agree with this and I would like David Cameron or his successor to think about how those left behind by globalisation can be supported. I think leaving the EU is offering false hope, by not tackling the real issues. Unfortunately I think Mr Cameron will be only too glad to move on.
"I would like David Cameron or his successor to think about how those left behind by globalisation can be supported." So would I - since I have become one of them.
Cameron et al doesn't give a ahit about the left behind-never has.
"With the size of counting areas varying dramatically, there are some results which are a lot more important than others. For instance, Birmingham accounts for 1.5 per cent of all voters and is expected to be one of the closest-run races of the night. Its results will be out at 4am and could be one of the biggest events of the whole evening."
Sean is an English gentleman. A gentleman's word is his bond. I would never doubt him. Of course, if it ever came out that he had suffered a momentary lapse of candour, it would, of course, have to be the the glass of whisky, the revolver and a significant nod towards the PB library.
Some investment banks and hedge funds have commissioned exit polls during the day today.
Sterlind has strengthened 1.1% so far today.
The FTSE 100 is up 1.15% so far today.
Ergo the vote is for REMAIN.
Talking of which, here's my experience
I voted in a leafy corner of Primrose Hill.
On the way out I was exit polled - yes! - by a pretty girl. I had a quick peek at her clipboard; it showed REMAIN outnumbering LEAVE by about four or five to one. Not unexpected in that neck of the woods. She said they'd been "quite busy", but she was barely 18 so possibly had nothing to judge it by.
Then on the way out I was interviewed by German radio, and I explained to the good people of Germany why I voted the way I did.
For the record, I summoned blood, stiffened sinews, and voted LEAVE, in full and stoical expectation of defeat. But also in happy anticipation of being able to blame quisling, treacherous REMAINIANS for every awful thing the EU does for the next 15 years.
And we will blame them. Oh yes, we will.
Chapeau old chap. I owe you an apology. I confidently predicted to m'daughter (who is a huge fan of your work) that you would buckle under the peer pressure. So sorry for doubting your intestinal fortitude.
You don't think @SeanT actually voted Leave do you?!
He..is..a..writer..of..fiction.
Of course it's a much better story to say he's voted Leave.
Actually, he voted Remain. I heard all about it on Deutschland FM.
Sean is an English gentleman. A gentleman's word is his bond. I would never doubt him. Of course, if it ever came out that he had suffered a momentary lapse of candour, it would, of course, have to be the the glass of whisky, the revolver and a significant nod towards the PB library.
Isn't he Cornish? That's not English.
I really did vote LEAVE. I would have taken a photo of it, but isn't that illegal and gets you hung in St Katherine's Docks or something?
Anyway. WORK.
Borrow a rubber from MI5 and you could have taken two photos to make sure you had your options covered...
WOW! This is a great read and the case those on the Left should've made for Leave.
I am very sympathetic. The problem is, those people have no-one standing up for them. The remain establishment aren't interested, while the likes of Johnson, Gove and probably Farage want to get out of the EU because it fetters capitalism too much.
The left in Britain still hasn't grasped some basic truths that Germany's left understood 15 years ago. In a globalising world you can only protect wages by increasing the value added by labour, and holding down the cost of living does more for living standards than allowing wage inflation to take hold.
I agree with this and I would like David Cameron or his successor to think about how those left behind by globalisation can be supported. I think leaving the EU is offering false hope, by not tackling the real issues. Unfortunately I think Mr Cameron will be only too glad to move on.
"I would like David Cameron or his successor to think about how those left behind by globalisation can be supported." So would I - since I have become one of them.
WOW! This is a great read and the case those on the Left should've made for Leave.
I agree with this and I would like David Cameron or his successor to think about how those left behind by globalisation can be supported. I think leaving the EU is offering false hope, by not tackling the real issues. Unfortunately I think Mr Cameron will be only too glad to move on.
"I would like David Cameron or his successor to think about how those left behind by globalisation can be supported." So would I - since I have become one of them.
Cameron et al doesn't give a ahit about the left behind-never has.
In fairness, I don't detect much more than lip service from any of our major parties.
Also in fairness - we are running a chunky deficit almost eight years after the worse recession since time immemorial. There are limits to what can actually be done.
Birmingham also surprises me with 48-52 for Leave.
I think leave relying on cities like Birmingham should have rang alarm bells. A campaign based 80% on immigration is not going to win cities like Birmingham, Bradford which was also predicted to be narrowly leave. Its not that these places don't want controlled immigration they do, they are just not going to vote for a side that bangs on about that to the detriment of everything elese.
Another great post by you. In the final analysis, assuming a Remain victory, it will be the overplaying of the immigration card, and the idiocy of the hateful poster campaign that will be seen (rightly or wrongly) as the turning point. To think some on here defended it. It was a shameful, squalid campaign.
In your - relentless, relentless - view.
Both campaigns were squalid.
Only one of the campaigns published a poster of people with dark faces in a queue, with the message Breaking Point over the top of it.
Remain lost the moral high ground when too many of its supporters tried to make capital out of a murder.
Fundamentally, I've become increasingly concerned about some of the gaps opening up in this country between those who are elected to govern, and the people who they ignore and leave behind. London has always had a distinct character, but over the last 20 years, this has become increasingly pronounced. ...
[snip for brevity]
Excellent stuff, Charles, and a very articulate statement of why I support Cameron's politics, which is in the great tradition of one-nation Conservatism.
But how on earth do you get from that to wanting to risk trashing the economy by leaving the EU and supporting the more right-wing type of BOOer Tory? An utter logical disconnect, if you don't mind me saying so. I am completely baffled.
Because of the people who lose from globalisation and are ignored by their elected representatives.
Because our economy isn't working. It serves the MNCs and makes life tough for small businesses. That just isn't right. It's hollowed out the tax base and encouraged companies to gouge for "incentives" to stay where they are.
Fundamentally our entire system is based on making the haves richer and ignoring the have nots. Leaving the EU gives us a chance to reset.
Birmingham also surprises me with 48-52 for Leave.
I think leave relying on cities like Birmingham should have rang alarm bells. A campaign based 80% on immigration is not going to win cities like Birmingham, Bradford which was also predicted to be narrowly leave. Its not that these places don't want controlled immigration they do, they are just not going to vote for a side that bangs on about that to the detriment of everything elese.
Another great post by you. In the final analysis, assuming a Remain victory, it will be the overplaying of the immigration card, and the idiocy of the hateful poster campaign that will be seen (rightly or wrongly) as the turning point. To think some on here defended it. It was a shameful, squalid campaign.
In your - relentless, relentless - view.
Both campaigns were squalid.
Only one of the campaigns published a poster of people with dark faces in a queue, with the message Breaking Point over the top of it.
Promoting a policy of having immigration controls is not racist provided the controls apply equally to all races, which the REMAIN policy doesn't but the LEAVE policy does.
I suppose we can take solace that Samantha's Cameron's daughter will be able to get that apprenticeship now.
Is Samantha Cameron's daughter planning to become a carpenter or electrician?
From the Daily Mail interview:
"But I look at my daughter Nancy and think that in only six years she could be starting an apprenticeship"
My favourite moment of the campaign. It doesn't get more authentic than that, I'm sure you'll agree.
As mentioned by me on here before. It is up there with Zac saying his favourite shop (in the My London section in the Standard) was Londis.
Not as good as his ex's Scherezade's Guardian lifestyle article (now deleted as "copyright expires") on raising goats as a green lifestyle option. She really did say something like "don't worry about having enough space to rear goats, you only need to use one of your smaller fields".
"Ex-Hartlepool MP and former business secretary Peter Mandelson insisted there’ll be no “magic bullet” by leaving the European Union during a visit to Teesside.
Labour Peer Lord Mandelson – also a former trade and industry secretary and European trade commissioner – spoke to 400 delegates and guests at NEPIC's annual conference and exhibition at Wynyard Hall on Wednesday, attended by Tees Business.
He told firms from the region’s process and chemical industry that leaving the EU would be like leaving a members’ club – and turning our back on all the benefits that come with it.
“The European Union is a bit like a club, and it has very strong facilities,” said Lord Mandelson during a 20-minute speech."
When he says 'club' with 'facilities' I guess he doesn't mean a Working Men's Club with two full size snooker tables and a bar skittles table.
Two full size snooker tables
Two bars and a pool table at my one
my club has a billard room but no table. Does that count?
Charles, I think your club is more the sort of place Mandy had in mind!
The Carlton turned it's snooker room into a "business suite". Just one of the reasons I left...
Did the Carlton have a Snooker Room? Dashed bad form if it did. Even the National Liberal Club had a Billiards Room. The cues were all twisted, mind, and I am sure that some of the billiard balls were elliptical (and I am damn sure that none of the cloths were true).
Presumably the Betfair moves are mostly trading/profit-taking activity. But intriguing that the private "exit" polling might be producing results at variance with the Populous/IPSOS polls earlier today.
This does genuinely interest me. But is it remotely plausible - either to be actually going on, or producing such results ?
"Ex-Hartlepool MP and former business secretary Peter Mandelson insisted there’ll be no “magic bullet” by leaving the European Union during a visit to Teesside.
Labour Peer Lord Mandelson – also a former trade and industry secretary and European trade commissioner – spoke to 400 delegates and guests at NEPIC's annual conference and exhibition at Wynyard Hall on Wednesday, attended by Tees Business.
He told firms from the region’s process and chemical industry that leaving the EU would be like leaving a members’ club – and turning our back on all the benefits that come with it.
“The European Union is a bit like a club, and it has very strong facilities,” said Lord Mandelson during a 20-minute speech."
When he says 'club' with 'facilities' I guess he doesn't mean a Working Men's Club with two full size snooker tables and a bar skittles table.
Two full size snooker tables
Two bars and a pool table at my one
my club has a billard room but no table. Does that count?
Charles, I think your club is more the sort of place Mandy had in mind!
The Carlton turned it's snooker room into a "business suite". Just one of the reasons I left...
The Carlton? *shudders*
I'm just over the road at a rather charming little coffee house
WOW! This is a great read and the case those on the Left should've made for Leave.
I am very sympathetic. The problem is, those people have no-one standing up for them. The remain establishment aren't interested, while the likes of Johnson, Gove and probably Farage want to get out of the EU because it fetters capitalism too much.
The left in Britain still hasn't grasped some basic truths that Germany's left understood 15 years ago. In a globalising world you can only protect wages by increasing the value added by labour, and holding down the cost of living does more for living standards than allowing wage inflation to take hold.
I agree with this and I would like David Cameron or his successor to think about how those left behind by globalisation can be supported. I think leaving the EU is offering false hope, by not tackling the real issues. Unfortunately I think Mr Cameron will be only too glad to move on.
"I would like David Cameron or his successor to think about how those left behind by globalisation can be supported." So would I - since I have become one of them.
WOW! This is a great read and the case those on the Left should've made for Leave.
I agree with this and I would like David Cameron or his successor to think about how those left behind by globalisation can be supported. I think leaving the EU is offering false hope, by not tackling the real issues. Unfortunately I think Mr Cameron will be only too glad to move on.
"I would like David Cameron or his successor to think about how those left behind by globalisation can be supported." So would I - since I have become one of them.
Cameron et al doesn't give a ahit about the left behind-never has.
In fairness, I don't detect much more than lip service from any of our major parties.
Also in fairness - we are running a chunky deficit almost eight years after the worse recession since time immemorial. There are limits to what can actually be done.
True but that should have been fixed by now. As it hasn't when the next recession hits (and if will soon) we really are going to be in a mess
Good poll for remain. Bend over because we are about to get the dockside hooker treatment from Junker and pals.
Oh and there will never be another referendum. The EU will make absolutely certain of that and very very quickly.
If we do get the "dockside hooker" treatment (and I'm not convinced), then we might not need another referendum - a general election may sort it.
It's conceivable that we could get Remain on a high turnout and with demonstrably >50% in favour, and a subsequent general election in which Leave parties or supporters "win" on a lower turnout under FPTP so with
Why - they had their chance to vote - they can only blame themselves.
"Ex-Hartlepool MP and former business secretary Peter Mandelson insisted there’ll be no “magic bullet” by leaving the European Union during a visit to Teesside.
Labour Peer Lord Mandelson – also a former trade and industry secretary and European trade commissioner – spoke to 400 delegates and guests at NEPIC's annual conference and exhibition at Wynyard Hall on Wednesday, attended by Tees Business.
He told firms from the region’s process and chemical industry that leaving the EU would be like leaving a members’ club – and turning our back on all the benefits that come with it.
“The European Union is a bit like a club, and it has very strong facilities,” said Lord Mandelson during a 20-minute speech."
When he says 'club' with 'facilities' I guess he doesn't mean a Working Men's Club with two full size snooker tables and a bar skittles table.
Two full size snooker tables
Two bars and a pool table at my one
my club has a billard room but no table. Does that count?
Charles, I think your club is more the sort of place Mandy had in mind!
The Carlton turned it's snooker room into a "business suite". Just one of the reasons I left...
Did the Carlton have a Snooker Room? Dashed bad form if it did. Even the National Liberal Club had a Billiards Room. The cues were all twisted, mind, and I am sure that some of the billiard balls were elliptical (and I am damn sure that none of the cloths were true).
Nat Lib Club still has a snooker and Billiards room. Right across the corridor from "The Savavge Club"
Presumably the Betfair moves are mostly trading/profit-taking activity. But intriguing that the private "exit" polling might be producing results at variance with the Populous/IPSOS polls earlier today.
This does genuinely interest me. But is it remotely plausible - either to be actually going on, or producing such results ?
if Leave do manage to somehow pull this off, the egg on faces is going to be huge, and the markets will be in chaos tomorrow
Funny you should say that...
"City banks - including UBS, HSBC, Morgan Stanley and Bank of America Merrill Lynch - have written to clients telling them to prepare for disruption once the EU referendum result is declared."
Ha Ha Ha , that bunch of shysters could not run a bath
Wotcha, Mr. G., there are many topics that you and I disagree on, but on one I think we are united - the malignant effect of these international banks.
A few years ago Goldman Sachs was caught out selling an investment product that they themselves were betting against. How that company is still allowed to do business in the UK is beyond me. I read yesterday that the chap in charge of their division that was responsible for rigging the Greek figures that enabled them to supposedly qualify for admission to the Euro was none other than our present governor of the Bank of England.
We are told that unless we do what they say these crooks will feck off to Frankfurt or some where. As far as I am concerned they can feck off to wherever they like and feck up someone else's economy.
We need a banking sector, of course we do, but let us have one that is honest, not the bunch of crooks we seem to be stuck with.
With their alumnus running most of the world's central banks, including ours, I find such a prospect unlikely.
Alumni, surely?
And, Mr L, I’ve read that somewhere about Greece and GS, too.
"With the size of counting areas varying dramatically, there are some results which are a lot more important than others. For instance, Birmingham accounts for 1.5 per cent of all voters and is expected to be one of the closest-run races of the night. Its results will be out at 4am and could be one of the biggest events of the whole evening."
WOW! This is a great read and the case those on the Left should've made for Leave.
I am very sympathetic. The problem is, those people have no-one standing up for them. The remain establishment aren't interested, while the likes of Johnson, Gove and probably Farage want to get out of the EU because it fetters capitalism too much.
I agree with this and I would like David Cameron or his successor to think about how those left behind by globalisation can be supported. I think leaving the EU is offering false hope, by not tackling the real issues. Unfortunately I think Mr Cameron will be only too glad to move on.
"I would like David Cameron or his successor to think about how those left behind by globalisation can be supported." So would I - since I have become one of them.
WOW! This is a great read and the case those on the Left should've made for Leave.
I agree with this and I would like David Cameron or his successor to think about how those left behind by globalisation can be supported. I think leaving the EU is offering false hope, by not tackling the real issues. Unfortunately I think Mr Cameron will be only too glad to move on.
"I would like David Cameron or his successor to think about how those left behind by globalisation can be supported." So would I - since I have become one of them.
Cameron et al doesn't give a ahit about the left behind-never has.
In fairness, I don't detect much more than lip service from any of our major parties.
Also in fairness - we are running a chunky deficit almost eight years after the worse recession since time immemorial. There are limits to what can actually be done.
True but that should have been fixed by now. As it hasn't when the next recession hits (and if will soon) we really are going to be in a mess
From your lips to God's ears as the saying goes. We're going to go into the next recession in pretty poor shape across a whole range of indicators.
The trouble is, the current administration is logically, if not actually, a minority government. Can you see them doing anything useful by the next election?
I thought it worth posting why I voted Leave as it is probably against my financial self-interest (although @rcs1000 you'd better be wrong about London house prices!)
Fundamentally, I've become increasingly concerned about some of the gaps opening up in this country between those who are elected to govern, and the people who they ignore and leave behind. London has always had a distinct character, but over the last 20 years, this has become increasingly pronounced.
We can, and should, be better than that as a party and as a country. The Conservatives used to be the party of the One Nation. They have forgotten how to do that - and I fear they have forgotten what it even means.
To lead is to serve. Our leaders need to be taught that they are not in charge. Vote Leave: take control.
Very good post. I don't agree with all of it, but I wish this case had been made in the campaign. Just as I wish we had heard more from the left on the issues identified by the Guardian writer who is voting no.
The one thing I think we all agree on here, is that the campaigns could have benefited massively from more light and less heat. Not the finest hour of politics in this country.
both sides are to blame but cameron started the whole mess in a tawdry & un prime-ministerial way. the two week pre campaign purdah during which he tried to manipulate the vote was awful. i've lots of friends who went from remain to leave because of cameron.
The £9m leafleting was another. And trading concessions on the Trades Union Bill for £1.5m of Remain campaigning. Squalid and bent. Completely unforgivable in my eyes.
Presumably the Betfair moves are mostly trading/profit-taking activity. But intriguing that the private "exit" polling might be producing results at variance with the Populous/IPSOS polls earlier today.
This does genuinely interest me. But is it remotely plausible - either to be actually going on, or producing such results ?
How do exit polls deal with postal voting?
good point. in a vote like this where leave is allegedly well ahead on postals I don't know?
Query repeated from yesterday: is there any provision for a recount in the event of an incredibly close vote? I assume not as nobody has mentioned any such.
Hopefully Brendan and all those others on the right who are now so keen to empower the working class after supporting policies that do them active harm will start to advocate PR. It's the only thing that will make any practical difference as it will make working class votes important again.
Coming round to the idea.
I have come round after being the traditional Tory that was strongly for fptp.
In all seriousness, the only way to make working class votes really count is to change the voting system. All those who want forgotten voices to be heard have to engage with this.
They could always try voting. One could equally argue that middle class/elderly voters are heard because they do vote. The triple lock and other bribes suggest that voting works.
I've just cast my votes. Apparently there had been "a steady flow".
Same at mine. Bottom line is no-one can really pronounce on turnout until we find out what proportion of people returning home from work 5-8pm go via the polling station...
Apple is apparently replacing the 3.5mm headphone jack on their phones with the Lightning connector. Yet another user-unfriendly, messy and cash-grabbing move by Apple.
Birmingham also surprises me with 48-52 for Leave.
I think leave relying on cities like Birmingham should have rang alarm bells. A campaign based 80% on immigration is not going to win cities like Birmingham, Bradford which was also predicted to be narrowly leave. Its not that these places don't want controlled immigration they do, they are just not going to vote for a side that bangs on about that to the detriment of everything elese.
Another great post by you. In the final analysis, assuming a Remain victory, it will be the overplaying of the immigration card, and the idiocy of the hateful poster campaign that will be seen (rightly or wrongly) as the turning point. To think some on here defended it. It was a shameful, squalid campaign.
In your - relentless, relentless - view.
Both campaigns were squalid.
Only one of the campaigns published a poster of people with dark faces in a queue, with the message Breaking Point over the top of it.
Promoting a policy of having immigration controls is not racist provided the controls apply equally to all races, which the REMAIN policy doesn't but the LEAVE policy does.
And besides, in the interests of diversity, haven't you got to include coloured faces anyway.
(A friend launched a product which was based on trials in Co Durham. As most know, the coloured population of Co Durham isn't very high, so when the product was packaged, as well as photographs of children using the product, they had to buy stock photographs of a couple of coloured children to stick on it.)
New Poll: Boom! Look Who The Texans Favor In A General Election Matchup
The Hill reported: The poll finds that Donald Trump leads Hillary Clinton by about 7 points in the state. The presumptive GOP nominee garnered the support of 36.8 percent of respondents, while Clinton won the support of 29.7 percent.
Looks like Texas is STAYING GOP !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I agree with almost all of that, Mr Charles. And the identification of government circles with big business was one of the reasons I too voted for Leave.
I think where you go wrong is to look back to some golden age when the Conservative Party was anything else. They sometimes pretended to be on the side of the "little people" - but that was always the territory of the Liberals.
Perhaps we are indeed on the point of seeing a major shake-up of the party political system?
It won't be long before there are more self-employed people than public sector employees. That represents a massive opportunity for a party prepared to be economically and socially liberal, and on the side of the relatively powerless.
Is that the same Tabman who was on this site in 2004?
Birmingham also surprises me with 48-52 for Leave.
I think leave relying on cities like Birmingham should have rang alarm bells. A campaign based 80% on immigration is not going to win cities like Birmingham, Bradford which was also predicted to be narrowly leave. Its not that these places don't want controlled immigration they do, they are just not going to vote for a side that bangs on about that to the detriment of everything elese.
Another great post by you. In the final analysis, assuming a Remain victory, it will be the overplaying of the immigration card, and the idiocy of the hateful poster campaign that will be seen (rightly or wrongly) as the turning point. To think some on here defended it. It was a shameful, squalid campaign.
In your - relentless, relentless - view.
Both campaigns were squalid.
Only one of the campaigns published a poster of people with dark faces in a queue, with the message Breaking Point over the top of it.
Remain lost the moral high ground when too many of its supporters tried to make capital out of a murder.
Both as disgusting as each other.
IMHO, the low point of the Remain campaign was Osborne's Punishment Budget. But, it probably worked.
I see Fraser Nelson came out for Leave today. Lot's of angst there.
I don't think anyone who's thought about the issues could be sanguine about their vote. It took me weeks of pondering and reading to finally make up my mind, and even then I havered in the voting booth. This vote is fecking IMPORTANT.
New Poll: Boom! Look Who The Texans Favor In A General Election Matchup
The Hill reported: The poll finds that Donald Trump leads Hillary Clinton by about 7 points in the state. The presumptive GOP nominee garnered the support of 36.8 percent of respondents, while Clinton won the support of 29.7 percent.
Looks like Texas is STAYING GOP !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Because of the people who lose from globalisation and are ignored by their elected representatives.
Because our economy isn't working. It serves the MNCs and makes life tough for small businesses. That just isn't right. It's hollowed out the tax base and encouraged companies to gouge for "incentives" to stay where they are.
Fundamentally our entire system is based on making the haves richer and ignoring the have nots. Leaving the EU gives us a chance to reset.
Small businesses are thriving. We are creating jobs faster than almost any other developed economy. Standard of living are rising, and will rise faster in the coming months (assuming a Remain, of course). Yes, following the 2008/9 crash things have been tough, but the less-well off have actually been extremely well insulated from the worst effects.
But, most of all, all your complaints, even if they were justified, are completely orthogonal to the issue on the ballot paper today. Quite apart from anything else, the principal economic argument, such as it is, of the Leave campaign is for increased globalisation, opening up our markets to increased competition, reducing tariffs, and trading more with countries such as China, Brazil and USA. If that were to come about and actually work (I'm sceptical, but let's assume the best), how on earth is that supposed to help the little man rather than big business, in a way which membership of the EU - with all its regulations and social protections - doesn't?
It makes no sense. I get the Patrick Minford argument - advocating untrammeled globalisation red in tooth and claw, remove all tariffs, let prices drop, and accept the hit on manufacturing in the hope that the resultant Thatcherite liberalisation will eventually outweigh the short-term damage to jobs and existing industry - but I really don't get yours.
I agree with Charles rationale on why he voted LEAVE. We also have with this referendum an almost unique situation on mainland UK. Every mainland Party Leader that sits in the House of Commons supports REMAIN whereas circa 50% of the voters support LEAVE. This is a different split to that which happened at the Scots Indy Ref where circa 45% of the voters had the SNP Leadership to represent them. Our Leaders of the UK mainland parties are effectively fighting between them for half the electorate. UKIP, today potentially has 50% of the electorate to itself. Unless of course we do vote LEAVE or the Conservatives appoint a LEAVEr at its head.
My favourite Peter Mandelson story is the time he was taken to view his prospective constituency 'oop north.' To initiate their man of the people they took our Peter into a chippy. He was delighted to see one of his favourite dishes behind the counter and asked if he could also have 'some of that lovely guacamole.'
That mushy peas tale is still told across County Durham.
Birmingham also surprises me with 48-52 for Leave.
I think leave relying on cities like Birmingham should have rang alarm bells. A campaign based 80% on immigration is not going to win cities like Birmingham, Bradford which was also predicted to be narrowly leave. Its not that these places don't want controlled immigration they do, they are just not going to vote for a side that bangs on about that to the detriment of everything elese.
Another great post by you. In the final analysis, assuming a Remain victory, it will be the overplaying of the immigration card, and the idiocy of the hateful poster campaign that will be seen (rightly or wrongly) as the turning point. To think some on here defended it. It was a shameful, squalid campaign.
In your - relentless, relentless - view.
Both campaigns were squalid.
Only one of the campaigns published a poster of people with dark faces in a queue, with the message Breaking Point over the top of it.
Remain lost the moral high ground when too many of its supporters tried to make capital out of a murder.
Both as disgusting as each other.
IMHO, the low point of the Remain campaign was Osborne's Punishment Budget. But, it probably worked.
Stephen Kinnock.
Osborne has stayed off the air in the last few days, probably wisely for "remain"...
WOW! This is a great read and the case those on the Left should've made for Leave.
I am very sympathetic. The problem is, those people have no-one standing up for them. The remain establishment aren't interested, while the likes of Johnson, Gove and probably Farage want to get out of the EU because it fetters capitalism too much.
The left in Britain still hasn't grasped some basic truths that Germany's left understood 15 years ago. In a globalising world you can only protect wages by increasing the value added by labour, and holding down the cost of living does more for living standards than allowing wage inflation to take hold.
I agree with this and I would like David Cameron or his successor to think about how those left behind by globalisation can be supported. I think leaving the EU is offering false hope, by not tackling the real issues. Unfortunately I think Mr Cameron will be only too glad to move on.
"I would like David Cameron or his successor to think about how those left behind by globalisation can be supported." So would I - since I have become one of them.
WOW! This is a great read and the case those on the Left should've made for Leave.
I agree with this and I would like David Cameron or his successor to think about how those left behind by globalisation can be supported. I think leaving the EU is offering false hope, by not tackling the real issues. Unfortunately I think Mr Cameron will be only too glad to move on.
"I would like David Cameron or his successor to think about how those left behind by globalisation can be supported." So would I - since I have become one of them.
Cameron et al doesn't give a ahit about the left behind-never has.
In fairness, I don't detect much more than lip service from any of our major parties.
Also in fairness - we are running a chunky deficit almost eight years after the worse recession since time immemorial. There are limits to what can actually be done.
Helping the left behind doesn't always mean increasing spebding, reducing migration and increasing training don't cost the government much.Intact in the long term it will save the government money but our politicians only think about the next election instead of the long term so it is no wonder the population do the same.
Apple is apparently replacing the 3.5mm headphone jack on their phones with the Lightning connector. Yet another user-unfriendly, messy and cash-grabbing move by Apple.
New Poll: Boom! Look Who The Texans Favor In A General Election Matchup
The Hill reported: The poll finds that Donald Trump leads Hillary Clinton by about 7 points in the state. The presumptive GOP nominee garnered the support of 36.8 percent of respondents, while Clinton won the support of 29.7 percent.
Looks like Texas is STAYING GOP !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Apple is apparently replacing the 3.5mm headphone jack on their phones with the Lightning connector. Yet another user-unfriendly, messy and cash-grabbing move by Apple.
Ugh what a pain in the bum, after I found a pair of 3.5mm headphones I like. I honestly dount the average punter could tell the difference between the two. Only those insisting on having all their music in FLAC format....
I see Fraser Nelson came out for Leave today. Lot's of angst there.
I don't think anyone who's thought about the issues could be sanguine about their vote. It took me weeks of pondering and reading to finally make up my mind, and even then I havered in the voting booth. This vote is fecking IMPORTANT.
I'm actually glad I voted Remain by post weeks ago - it prevented any such wavering.
I definitely (definitely) want us to stay in, but a Leave vote would be so much more exciting!
Apple is apparently replacing the 3.5mm headphone jack on their phones with the Lightning connector. Yet another user-unfriendly, messy and cash-grabbing move by Apple.
My favourite Peter Mandelson story is the time he was taken to view his prospective constituency 'oop north.' To initiate their man of the people they took our Peter into a chippy. He was delighted to see one of his favourite dishes behind the counter and asked if he could also have 'some of that lovely guacamole.'
That mushy peas tale is still told across County Durham.
New Poll: Boom! Look Who The Texans Favor In A General Election Matchup
The Hill reported: The poll finds that Donald Trump leads Hillary Clinton by about 7 points in the state. The presumptive GOP nominee garnered the support of 36.8 percent of respondents, while Clinton won the support of 29.7 percent.
Looks like Texas is STAYING GOP !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
@JoeMurphyLondon: If he wins, Cameron could postpone the reshuffle until 2017, predicts a well-placed Tory. https://t.co/dsxbTUFO3m “Delaying it will focus people’s minds. Those MPs elected in 2010 and 2015 will be forced to ask themselves, ‘Do I really want to spend the next four or nine years moping in the Tea Room with Bill Cash and Bernard Jenkin, plotting the next referendum?’ Even those who backed Leave will not wish to waste their careers like that. Cameron could easily put the reshuffle off until 2017.”
Apple is apparently replacing the 3.5mm headphone jack on their phones with the Lightning connector. Yet another user-unfriendly, messy and cash-grabbing move by Apple.
Yet more evidence of the stupidity of humanity ... why do people fall for the Apple B/S?
"With the size of counting areas varying dramatically, there are some results which are a lot more important than others. For instance, Birmingham accounts for 1.5 per cent of all voters and is expected to be one of the closest-run races of the night. Its results will be out at 4am and could be one of the biggest events of the whole evening."
My favourite Peter Mandelson story is the time he was taken to view his prospective constituency 'oop north.' To initiate their man of the people they took our Peter into a chippy. He was delighted to see one of his favourite dishes behind the counter and asked if he could also have 'some of that lovely guacamole.'
That mushy peas tale is still told across County Durham.
It's not true, though.
I believe we're now in post-truth politics. Or post-modern. Post- something anyway. Sounds clever, even if I'm not sure what it means.
My favourite Peter Mandelson story is the time he was taken to view his prospective constituency 'oop north.' To initiate their man of the people they took our Peter into a chippy. He was delighted to see one of his favourite dishes behind the counter and asked if he could also have 'some of that lovely guacamole.'
That mushy peas tale is still told across County Durham.
Scallops as well. Remember scallops? Poss the same incident, the only time he was ever in a Northern chippie.
@nunu When I originally came off the fence, this is what I wrote:
"No, I've come decisively off the fence now on the Remain side. The EU is seriously dysfunctional and the proposed deal is pisspoor. The Eurocrats are mediocre, reactive and short-sighted and the EU is in need of major reform that it's not going to get.
But it is now abundantly apparent that the Leave side is going to be overwhelmingly dominated by people with no judgement and very different values from me, who regard other Europeans as the enemy and immigrants as vermin, and whatever the fallout of a Leave vote it would leave Britain poorer, spiritually if not economically, as such people gained the ascendancy in public debate."
I stand by that. It wasn't a choice between good and bad. It was the choice between two profoundly unappetising options.
To get my vote, Leave would have had to have had a realistic plan which acknowledged the downsides as well as the upsides and to have campaigned with integrity, civility and basic decency for a civil and decent post-Brexit Britain. I didn't so much select Remain as was driven into it by the antics of the Leave campaign and its supporters.
My favourite Peter Mandelson story is the time he was taken to view his prospective constituency 'oop north.' To initiate their man of the people they took our Peter into a chippy. He was delighted to see one of his favourite dishes behind the counter and asked if he could also have 'some of that lovely guacamole.'
That mushy peas tale is still told across County Durham.
Comments
You can have a constituency link with PR, either via multi-member constituencies Irish-style or with the constituency plus top-up system recommended by Jenkins and similar to that used in Scotland and for the GLA
Which way did S.K. Tremayne vote?
http://redstatewatcher.com/article.asp?id=25225
Trump and the RNC have both remembered that the real enemy are the liberals that advocate gun control in the last few days I expect
(ducks)
Also in fairness - we are running a chunky deficit almost eight years after the worse recession since time immemorial. There are limits to what can actually be done.
Both as disgusting as each other.
Because our economy isn't working. It serves the MNCs and makes life tough for small businesses. That just isn't right. It's hollowed out the tax base and encouraged companies to gouge for "incentives" to stay where they are.
Fundamentally our entire system is based on making the haves richer and ignoring the have nots. Leaving the EU gives us a chance to reset.
I'm just over the road at a rather charming little coffee house
And, Mr L, I’ve read that somewhere about Greece and GS, too.
The trouble is, the current administration is logically, if not actually, a minority government. Can you see them doing anything useful by the next election?
Apple is apparently replacing the 3.5mm headphone jack on their phones with the Lightning connector. Yet another user-unfriendly, messy and cash-grabbing move by Apple.
On a related note, I'm tempted to pre-order a Cat S60 phone. If only JCB still did them ...
http://www.trustedreviews.com/cat-s60-review
Mr. Britain, indeed. This feels like the calm before the storm.
(A friend launched a product which was based on trials in Co Durham. As most know, the coloured population of Co Durham isn't very high, so when the product was packaged, as well as photographs of children using the product, they had to buy stock photographs of a couple of coloured children to stick on it.)
New Poll: Boom! Look Who The Texans Favor In A General Election Matchup
The Hill reported: The poll finds that Donald Trump leads Hillary Clinton by about 7 points in the state. The presumptive GOP nominee garnered the support of 36.8 percent of respondents, while Clinton won the support of 29.7 percent.
Looks like Texas is STAYING GOP !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
That is a dick move, to use internet parlance (much like the Windows 10 nagging approach).
But, most of all, all your complaints, even if they were justified, are completely orthogonal to the issue on the ballot paper today. Quite apart from anything else, the principal economic argument, such as it is, of the Leave campaign is for increased globalisation, opening up our markets to increased competition, reducing tariffs, and trading more with countries such as China, Brazil and USA. If that were to come about and actually work (I'm sceptical, but let's assume the best), how on earth is that supposed to help the little man rather than big business, in a way which membership of the EU - with all its regulations and social protections - doesn't?
It makes no sense. I get the Patrick Minford argument - advocating untrammeled globalisation red in tooth and claw, remove all tariffs, let prices drop, and accept the hit on manufacturing in the hope that the resultant Thatcherite liberalisation will eventually outweigh the short-term damage to jobs and existing industry - but I really don't get yours.
That mushy peas tale is still told across County Durham.
Osborne has stayed off the air in the last few days, probably wisely for "remain"...
Players STILL at the Euros:
⚽ AC Milan 2
⚽ Inter 2
⚽ Sevilla 3
⚽ PSG 3
⚽ Derby County 4
◼️◻️ #DCFC ◻️◼️
I definitely (definitely) want us to stay in, but a Leave vote would be so much more exciting!
I agree with a lot of what you said, which is why I am a Liberal Democrat.
But it's still true: Apple is IMO the most evil large company in the tech sector. And that's saying summat.
(*) Or fortunately for posters
“Delaying it will focus people’s minds. Those MPs elected in 2010 and 2015 will be forced to ask themselves, ‘Do I really want to spend the next four or nine years moping in the Tea Room with Bill Cash and Bernard Jenkin, plotting the next referendum?’ Even those who backed Leave will not wish to waste their careers like that. Cameron could easily put the reshuffle off until 2017.”
Wasn't Cameron there yesterday with Brown? Hmm.
Sod it, just for the hell of it I'll put my prediction out there, fully expecting to be completely, laughably wrong:
Leave to win by 50.9% to 49.1% after a few back-of-the-envelope calculations.
Turnout 71%
[Edited for typo]
"No, I've come decisively off the fence now on the Remain side. The EU is seriously dysfunctional and the proposed deal is pisspoor. The Eurocrats are mediocre, reactive and short-sighted and the EU is in need of major reform that it's not going to get.
But it is now abundantly apparent that the Leave side is going to be overwhelmingly dominated by people with no judgement and very different values from me, who regard other Europeans as the enemy and immigrants as vermin, and whatever the fallout of a Leave vote it would leave Britain poorer, spiritually if not economically, as such people gained the ascendancy in public debate."
I stand by that. It wasn't a choice between good and bad. It was the choice between two profoundly unappetising options.
To get my vote, Leave would have had to have had a realistic plan which acknowledged the downsides as well as the upsides and to have campaigned with integrity, civility and basic decency for a civil and decent post-Brexit Britain. I didn't so much select Remain as was driven into it by the antics of the Leave campaign and its supporters.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-465577/Hagues-baseball-cap-Mandelsons-mushy-peas-True-tales-just-great-political-myths.html
It will be large.