Some investment banks and hedge funds have commissioned exit polls during the day today.
Sterlind has strengthened 1.1% so far today.
The FTSE 100 is up 1.15% so far today.
Ergo the vote is for REMAIN.
Talking of which, here's my experience
I voted in a leafy corner of Primrose Hill.
On the way out I was exit polled - yes! - by a pretty girl. I had a quick peek at her clipboard; it showed REMAIN outnumbering LEAVE by about four or five to one. Not unexpected in that neck of the woods. She said they'd been "quite busy", but she was barely 18 so possibly had nothing to judge it by.
Then on the way out I was interviewed by German radio, and I explained to the good people of Germany why I voted the way I did.
For the record, I summoned blood, stiffened sinews, and voted LEAVE, in full and stoical expectation of defeat. But also in happy anticipation of being able to blame quisling, treacherous REMAINIANS for every awful thing the EU does for the next 15 years.
And we will blame them. Oh yes, we will.
SouthamObserver said earlier that Camden could be more than 75% Remain, perhaps the highest in the country.
WOW! This is a great read and the case those on the Left should've made for Leave.
This is spot on by the Guardian’s – money expert, Patrick Collinson, explaining why he is voting Leave:
"I know a painter/decorator who has not been able to raise his wages for 15 years. There’s always someone else, he says, willing to work for less. A driver who arrived from Turkey 18 years ago, who says the bus companies used to pay more than £12 an hour, but can now pay £10 or less because they have so many takers (and yes, the irony is noted). A care-home cleaner in a rundown seaside town who reckons her hopes of ever getting more than the minimum wage are zero. Each blames an influx of workers from the EU. Each of them are voting out. Tell them the EU protects workers’ rights and they just laugh.
When companies launch recruitment drives in eastern Europe they blame skills shortages in Britain. Really? If a big business wants to hire, say, drivers on £25 an hour, it will find it can do so easily; what they really mean is that they can’t find people willing to work for £10 an hour or less, with antisocial hours to boot. Meanwhile, workers here rejecting low wages are told they are lazy, chavvy and feckless when they refuse to be part of the so-called ‘jobs factory of Europe’.
Meanwhile, as wages for people in low-income groups are pegged back, rents rise. Many times I interviewed Britain’s biggest buy-to-let landlord, Fergus Wilson, and many times he told me how well he was doing from eastern European migrants, who filled nearly all his properties and kept his rental income booming. Rents in parts of the country are at catastrophic levels, snatching as much as 60% of pay. Migration is only part of the reason why that is happening. But when George Osborne declares house prices will fall by 18% if Britain quits, he’s giving the game away. He is saying membership of the EU keeps prices and rents much higher than they would otherwise be. Young people struggling with ludicrous rents, take note."
I am very sympathetic. The problem is, those people have no-one standing up for them. The remain establishment aren't interested, while the likes of Johnson, Gove and probably Farage want to get out of the EU because it fetters capitalism too much.
The left in Britain still hasn't grasped some basic truths that Germany's left understood 15 years ago. In a globalising world you can only protect wages by increasing the value added by labour, and holding down the cost of living does more for living standards than allowing wage inflation to take hold.
Some investment banks and hedge funds have commissioned exit polls during the day today.
Sterlind has strengthened 1.1% so far today.
The FTSE 100 is up 1.15% so far today.
Ergo the vote is for REMAIN.
Talking of which, here's my experience
I voted in a leafy corner of Primrose Hill.
On the way out I was exit polled - yes! - by a pretty girl. I had a quick peek at her clipboard; it showed REMAIN outnumbering LEAVE by about four or five to one. Not unexpected in that neck of the woods. She said they'd been "quite busy", but she was barely 18 so possibly had nothing to judge it by.
Then on the way out I was interviewed by German radio, and I explained to the good people of Germany why I voted the way I did.
For the record, I summoned blood, stiffened sinews, and voted LEAVE, in full and stoical expectation of defeat. But also in happy anticipation of being able to blame quisling, treacherous REMAINIANS for every awful thing the EU does for the next 15 years.
Five or six people in central London wearing 'IN' stickers - the virtue signallers choice undoubtedly. There must be a big shy leave vote.
Storms have wreaked havoc on suburban services into the capital. It really is bad. If I left after seven, I'd be worried about getting home in time to vote.
Two annoyances in the use of the English language on this site. 1. Virtue Signalling - this seems a way of saying that you disagree with someone but you want to deprive them of their right to believe whatever it is they are advocating. You are indicating that they are only saying or doing what they are to gain kudos amongst their peers. 2. Use of the 'word' 'waycist'. It's as though the user condones racism. Admittedly it is over used, as are references to Hitler.
It's pretty simple, really. People who complain about virtue signalling are virtue signalling. It's just that the virtues they seek to signal are different.
If PB is anything to go by - there's a significant number of homeless Tory types/others that are very unimpressed with Dave & George. Same elsewhere too.
Which is utterly bonkers, given that Dave got them the referendum they wanted.
Hopefully those who have lost their marbles over this will find them again in the next few months.
Richard, it isn't bonkers to be unhappy with Cameron if you are a Leave Tory. I am grateful that we finally got a referendum on Europe but it's clear from the tone Cameron has taken it wasn't granted out of the goodness of his heart or because he thought there was a worthwhile debate to be had. He probably never thought he'd have to do it as he wasn't expecting to win the GE (even on the night of the election itself).
He's campaigned robustly, which is his and Osborne's right and duty, but there are a lot of Tories who felt that the Conservative Party was the best vehicle for removing the UK from the EU and, when push came to shove, the Euro-sceptic rhetoric of Cameron, Osborne and others has been exposed as just that, rhetoric.
There's obviously a lot of anger on both sides of the Tory famly at the moment and much will cool over the next few weeks and months but the scars will still be there for decades to come and I, for one, and going to find it hard to vote for a Tory Party led by a Remainer. I probably will, as I've never voted anything else, but both sides are hurting.
As a non-Tory I agree that Dave's plan was:
a) to go into coalition and be 'persuaded' not to have the Referendum, or
b) to use the Referendum to lance the boil in the Tory Party once and for all and so cast his EU-obsessive wing into outer darkness
So I can understand why some Tories aren't big Dave fans right now.
Personally I think both a) (best) and b) (worthwhile) were worth going for....
Fair enough. What is the effect on the Conservative Party though. Last time I saw any figures the membership was down to about 150,000 (less than half of the number Cameron inherited). Of whom maybe 50%, or even a little more, would prefer to leave the EU, how many of those will stay on next year?.
It's time for a realignment. A Conservative Party shorn of it's Brexiteers could make common cause with Orange Liberals and the Kendallite Labour.
Do you think that would amount to a mass movement party? Or even a bigger party? Where would the money come from?
It might work, but I rather suspect it would be the SDP MkII.
It would be the Conservative Party and it would be bang on the nation's sweet spot.
*giggles* it's taken nearly 40 minuted to read down to the end of this thread - keep it up everyone!
On board a very busy 14:00 Kings Cross - Aberdeen train so should be on site and ready to see how it's going in Stockton around 5ish.
Fun final polls. And the odds are genuinely silly - big money desperately wants us to stay in, so a spread of sill money bets at crap odds really pushes the odds towards their cause.
If leave win overnight will be like living the opening chapter of A Very British Coup...
I thought it worth posting why I voted Leave as it is probably against my financial self-interest (although @rcs1000 you'd better be wrong about London house prices!)
Fundamentally, I've become increasingly concerned about some of the gaps opening up in this country between those who are elected to govern, and the people who they ignore and leave behind. London has always had a distinct character, but over the last 20 years, this has become increasingly pronounced.
Inevitably this has dramatically influenced the way that politicians think - for good or ill - they spend most of their time in London. Moreover, they are disconnected from the stresses and strains of ordinary life; they don't have to worry about pensions, for example, in the way that ordinary people do. From the conservative party's perspective, it's been deeply disturbing the way that they have been entranced by the glamour of dealing with the CEOs of multinationals. The conservatives are - or should be - the party of the strivers, the workers, the people who want to better themselves; the small businessmen and women who make this country great. While it might be nice to hob nob with the international elite who run big companies, those people and organisations have no interest in what is good for the UK and will happily bend and exploit the rules to maximise the increase in their share price. (To be clear, one view of the world says that is acceptable. I personally believe that a healthy capitalist system is critical to long-term shareholder value - the MNCs are trading short term gain for long-term challenges).
It is this fault line in the country that needs to be addressed. Voting to Leave, was, for me, a way for the people of this country to show the Westminster clique who is in charge. It was a way to force them to be accountable for their actions. It was a way to make them think about what is right for all of the people of this country, not just to focus on the headline numbers and ignore those who get left behind.
We can, and should, be better than that as a party and as a country. The Conservatives used to be the party of the One Nation. They have forgotten how to do that - and I fear they have forgotten what it even means.
To lead is to serve. Our leaders need to be taught that they are not in charge. Vote Leave: take control.
My experience today. Have an hours daily tube journey to Parsons Green SW6 from Walthamstow. Been there and back already. Have seen many hundreds of people wearing a Vote Remain or Im In sticker, but not a single one for leave. Just voted at about the same time as I did in the London Mayoral election. Today roughly half the names in my (small) street had a mark by them. In May I was the only one.
Wearing a Leave sticker in London probably wouldn't be a pleasant experience.
if Leave do manage to somehow pull this off, the egg on faces is going to be huge, and the markets will be in chaos tomorrow
Funny you should say that...
"City banks - including UBS, HSBC, Morgan Stanley and Bank of America Merrill Lynch - have written to clients telling them to prepare for disruption once the EU referendum result is declared."
Tweets from Louise Mensch? She'll just move on to a barrage of NeverTrump messages.
One of the best decisions I've ever made was to leave Twitter well alone. I was very enthusiastic when it first came along.
I don't begrudge those that enjoy it, but for me it's the living embodiment of what 'race to the bottom' actually looks like in practice.
You can get some great cat videos though. Twitter is just an echo chamber - you get what you ask for. So my twitter feed consists mainly of history stuff, some farming posts (including pictures of some nice doggies, & sheep), defence and a bit of politics (but only from people I find interesting).
Some investment banks and hedge funds have commissioned exit polls during the day today.
Sterlind has strengthened 1.1% so far today.
The FTSE 100 is up 1.15% so far today.
Ergo the vote is for REMAIN.
Talking of which, here's my experience
I voted in a leafy corner of Primrose Hill.
On the way out I was exit polled - yes! - by a pretty girl. I had a quick peek at her clipboard; it showed REMAIN outnumbering LEAVE by about four or five to one. Not unexpected in that neck of the woods. She said they'd been "quite busy", but she was barely 18 so possibly had nothing to judge it by.
Then on the way out I was interviewed by German radio, and I explained to the good people of Germany why I voted the way I did.
For the record, I summoned blood, stiffened sinews, and voted LEAVE, in full and stoical expectation of defeat. But also in happy anticipation of being able to blame quisling, treacherous REMAINIANS for every awful thing the EU does for the next 15 years.
Five or six people in central London wearing 'IN' stickers - the virtue signallers choice undoubtedly. There must be a big shy leave vote.
Storms have wreaked havoc on suburban services into the capital. It really is bad. If I left after seven, I'd be worried about getting home in time to vote.
Two annoyances in the use of the English language on this site. 1. Virtue Signalling - this seems a way of saying that you disagree with someone but you want to deprive them of their right to believe whatever it is they are advocating. You are indicating that they are only saying or doing what they are to gain kudos amongst their peers. 2. Use of the 'word' 'waycist'. It's as though the user condones racism. Admittedly it is over used, as are references to Hitler.
It's pretty simple, really. People who complain about virtue signalling are virtue signalling. It's just that the virtues they seek to signal are different.
And what's this 'waycist' thing about? That everyone critical of racism has a speech impediment?
"Today’s vote, although momentous and historic, won’t lead to anything very dramatic.
I have no idea which side will win. But one thing that seems clear is that it will be close. The losing side will represent a minority, but a large minority. In a democracy, large minorities can’t be ignored."
Like a few others, I'm also taking this opportunity to delurk after many years of avidly reading PB. Thanks to all those who make this the most entertaining and informative political site there is.
I've voted Leave, largely despite the way in which the campaign has been conducted rather than because of it. I've mostly been a shy leaver, cautious about saying too much in public. Partly this is because my job requires me to continue to have a good relationship with lots of different people who might disagree with me! But partly it's also because the overwhelming majority of my (mostly professional, graduate, largely leftish-leaning) friends and acquaintances are virulently pro-Remain. My Facebook feed in particular has been almost entirely one-sided, which has rather dissuaded me from arguing my case too strongly.
Incidentally, here in my small town in the south west, the polling station has been busy all long. The weather is also good at the moment. So I'm not optimistic about the outcome but am hoping for a miracle. It would also be great if there could be some reconciliation after tomorrow as well, but I'm not particularly optimistic about that either. It does seem likely to me that there will be a significant UKIP surge if Remain wins.
Some investment banks and hedge funds have commissioned exit polls during the day today.
Sterlind has strengthened 1.1% so far today.
The FTSE 100 is up 1.15% so far today.
Ergo the vote is for REMAIN.
Talking of which, here's my experience
I voted in a leafy corner of Primrose Hill.
On the way out I was exit polled - yes! - by a pretty girl. I had a quick peek at her clipboard; it showed REMAIN outnumbering LEAVE by about four or five to one. Not unexpected in that neck of the woods. She said they'd been "quite busy", but she was barely 18 so possibly had nothing to judge it by.
Then on the way out I was interviewed by German radio, and I explained to the good people of Germany why I voted the way I did.
For the record, I summoned blood, stiffened sinews, and voted LEAVE, in full and stoical expectation of defeat. But also in happy anticipation of being able to blame quisling, treacherous REMAINIANS for every awful thing the EU does for the next 15 years.
Five or six people in central London wearing 'IN' stickers - the virtue signallers choice undoubtedly. There must be a big shy leave vote.
Storms have wreaked havoc on suburban services into the capital. It really is bad. If I left after seven, I'd be worried about getting home in time to vote.
Two annoyances in the use of the English language on this site. 1. Virtue Signalling - this seems a way of saying that you disagree with someone but you want to deprive them of their right to believe whatever it is they are advocating. You are indicating that they are only saying or doing what they are to gain kudos amongst their peers. 2. Use of the 'word' 'waycist'. It's as though the user condones racism. Admittedly it is over used, as are references to Hitler.
It's pretty simple, really. People who complain about virtue signalling are virtue signalling. It's just that the virtues they seek to signal are different.
Mostly agree, but there is such a thing as exhibiting fake emotions because you want to be part of a particular crowd, like people pretending to be grief-stricken at Diana's death when they actually didn't care all that much about her. I think that was the original meaning of "virtue signalling".
Birmingham also surprises me with 48-52 for Leave.
I think leave relying on cities like Birmingham should have rang alarm bells. A campaign based 80% on immigration is not going to win cities like Birmingham, Bradford which was also predicted to be narrowly leave. Its not that these places don't want controlled immigration they do, they are just not going to vote for a side that bangs on about that to the detriment of everything elese.
Ukip might do well to get someone like Flynn as their leader rather than Farage. There are people who would be tempted to vote for them under a different leader.
I think Diane James would be their best bet.
Suzanne Evans is obviously the closest UKIP has to a media darling, but I think she's a bit too posh for UKIP's target audience.
Suzanne Evans is their best bet. Firstly, her work on the UKIP manifesto was top notch. Secondly, she is a good media performer. Thirdly, she will appeal to a very different demographic to Farage, who is more than a little marmite.
Both are weak on TV though: 'This Week' for example. Woolfe is more fluid and eloquent.
What about Paul Nuttal. Could he bring out the northern wwc for out as it looks like the wwc voted to stay in if the Labour private polling is to be believed only 30% of labour voters voted out. No where near enough for a majority
The problem UKIP has with WWC Labour voters is that it is economically and fiscally on the right. If it really wants to breakthrough in the north and inner cities it needs to look at that. But it would mean a completely new leadership and membership. Changing accents alone is nowhere near enough.
I thought it worth posting why I voted Leave as it is probably against my financial self-interest (although @rcs1000 you'd better be wrong about London house prices!)
Fundamentally, I've become increasingly concerned about some of the gaps opening up in this country between those who are elected to govern, and the people who they ignore and leave behind. London has always had a distinct character, but over the last 20 years, this has become increasingly pronounced.
Inevitably this has dramatically influenced the way that politicians think - for good or ill - they spend most of their time in London. Moreover, they are disconnected from the stresses and strains of ordinary life; they don't have to worry about pensions, for example, in the way that ordinary people do. From the conservative party's perspective, it's been deeply disturbing the way that they have been entranced by the glamour of dealing with the CEOs of multinationals. The conservatives are - or should be - the party of the strivers, the workers, the people who want to better themselves; the small businessmen and women who make this country great. While it might be nice to hob nob with the international elite who run big companies, those people and organisations have no interest in what is good for the UK and will happily bend and exploit the rules to maximise the increase in their share price. (To be clear, one view of the world says that is acceptable. I personally believe that a healthy capitalist system is critical to long-term shareholder value - the MNCs are trading short term gain for long-term challenges).
It is this fault line in the country that needs to be addressed. Voting to Leave, was, for me, a way for the people of this country to show the Westminster clique who is in charge. It was a way to force them to be accountable for their actions. It was a way to make them think about what is right for all of the people of this country, not just to focus on the headline numbers and ignore those who get left behind.
We can, and should, be better than that as a party and as a country. The Conservatives used to be the party of the One Nation. They have forgotten how to do that - and I fear they have forgotten what it even means.
To lead is to serve. Our leaders need to be taught that they are not in charge. Vote Leave: take control.
Damn you sir, that is what I've been trying to write for days. I applaud not only your views, but your grasp of English.
Time for a new party me thinks. Any suggestions for a name, The More Concerned with One's Nation than One's Mortgage Democrats?
Some investment banks and hedge funds have commissioned exit polls during the day today.
Sterlind has strengthened 1.1% so far today.
The FTSE 100 is up 1.15% so far today.
Ergo the vote is for REMAIN.
Talking of which, here's my experience
I voted in a leafy corner of Primrose Hill.
On the way out I was exit polled - yes! - by a pretty girl. I had a quick peek at her clipboard; it showed REMAIN outnumbering LEAVE by about four or five to one. Not unexpected in that neck of the woods. She said they'd been "quite busy", but she was barely 18 so possibly had nothing to judge it by.
Then on the way out I was interviewed by German radio, and I explained to the good people of Germany why I voted the way I did.
For the record, I summoned blood, stiffened sinews, and voted LEAVE, in full and stoical expectation of defeat. But also in happy anticipation of being able to blame quisling, treacherous REMAINIANS for every awful thing the EU does for the next 15 years.
My experience today. Have an hours daily tube journey to Parsons Green SW6 from Walthamstow. Been there and back already. Have seen many hundreds of people wearing a Vote Remain or Im In sticker, but not a single one for leave. Just voted at about the same time as I did in the London Mayoral election. Today roughly half the names in my (small) street had a mark by them. In May I was the only one.
Wearing a Leave sticker in London probably wouldn't be a pleasant experience.
No Leave stickers being offered at my polling station. Only Remain stickers.
Have we ever had this nonsense about pencils at GEs? This election is to voters what St Patricks Day is to drinkers, amateur day.
I would hope that the capabilities of our security services are such that, in the unlikely event they felt that they needed to influence an election result, they wouldn't need to rely on a pencil rubber...
I thought it worth posting why I voted Leave as it is probably against my financial self-interest (although @rcs1000 you'd better be wrong about London house prices!)
Fundamentally, I've become increasingly concerned about some of the gaps opening up in this country between those who are elected to govern, and the people who they ignore and leave behind. London has always had a distinct character, but over the last 20 years, this has become increasingly pronounced.
Inevitably this has dramatically influenced the way that politicians think - for good or ill - they spend most of their time in London. Moreover, they are disconnected from the stresses and strains of ordinary life; they don't have to worry about pensions, for example, in the way that ordinary people do. From the conservative party's perspective, it's been deeply disturbing the way that they have been entranced by the glamour of dealing with the CEOs of multinationals. The conservatives are - or should be - the party of the strivers, the workers, the people who want to better themselves; the small businessmen and women who make this country great. While it might be nice to hob nob with the international elite who run big companies, those people and organisations have no interest in what is good for the UK and will happily bend and exploit the rules to maximise the increase in their share price. (To be clear, one view of the world says that is acceptable. I personally believe that a healthy capitalist system is critical to long-term shareholder value - the MNCs are trading short term gain for long-term challenges).
It is this fault line in the country that needs to be addressed. Voting to Leave, was, for me, a way for the people of this country to show the Westminster clique who is in charge. It was a way to force them to be accountable for their actions. It was a way to make them think about what is right for all of the people of this country, not just to focus on the headline numbers and ignore those who get left behind.
We can, and should, be better than that as a party and as a country. The Conservatives used to be the party of the One Nation. They have forgotten how to do that - and I fear they have forgotten what it even means.
To lead is to serve. Our leaders need to be taught that they are not in charge. Vote Leave: take control.
I agree with almost all of that, Mr Charles. And the identification of government circles with big business was one of the reasons I too voted for Leave.
I think where you go wrong is to look back to some golden age when the Conservative Party was anything else. They sometimes pretended to be on the side of the "little people" - but that was always the territory of the Liberals.
Perhaps we are indeed on the point of seeing a major shake-up of the party political system?
Some investment banks and hedge funds have commissioned exit polls during the day today.
Sterlind has strengthened 1.1% so far today.
The FTSE 100 is up 1.15% so far today.
Ergo the vote is for REMAIN.
Talking of which, here's my experience
I voted in a leafy corner of Primrose Hill.
On the way out I was exit polled - yes! - by a pretty girl. I had a quick peek at her clipboard; it showed REMAIN outnumbering LEAVE by about four or five to one. Not unexpected in that neck of the woods. She said they'd been "quite busy", but she was barely 18 so possibly had nothing to judge it by.
Then on the way out I was interviewed by German radio, and I explained to the good people of Germany why I voted the way I did.
For the record, I summoned blood, stiffened sinews, and voted LEAVE, in full and stoical expectation of defeat. But also in happy anticipation of being able to blame quisling, treacherous REMAINIANS for every awful thing the EU does for the next 15 years.
Based on the apocalyptic forecasts we've had on here, Cameron was grossly irresponsible to offer a referendum that he could easily have lost, based on the prejudices of the poor, the ignorant and the racists.
No, he wasn't. He was being democratic. This is an issue which has to be resolved.
By tonight at 10pm, it will be resolved, although we won't know how for a few hours. Then the world will move on, and politicians and voters will worry about other things (Heathrow, for a starter!). Tempers will cool, it will all be ancient history soon.
Just like gay marriage, to take one example (an issue which I think actually caused more anger amongst some party members than the referendum has).
By tonight at 10pm, it will be resolved,
I doubt it. If anything this referendum has shown up divisions in the country that were previously papered over.
A 2:1 decision in either direction would resolve it, but I don't think we're going to get that. And the underlying issues are not going away, if anything they are likely to get worse.
The Brendan O'Neill article is cracking - he says the furies have escaped from Pandora's box.
"...We should be glad of all this naked elitism, of this media and political agitation with the fact that the masses have been asked to make a real decision for a change. Because it utterly explodes the myth that they are interested in engaging with us. In recent years, inhabitants of the Westminster bubble and media circles have gone on endlessly about the need to get more Ordinary People into politics, on to focus groups, ‘having their say’.
There have been ceaseless campaigns to get the vote out, to ‘empower people’. And now we know they didn’t mean a word of it. They like the demos when it’s making small decisions, when it’s nodding along at a staged focus group, when it’s putting an X in a box for parties that are indistinguishable — that is, when it isn’t really behaving as a demos at all. But when we’re asked to decide on something as big as the very nature of our nation, they go into meltdown. Their true dread of the demos comes out. Make no mistake: these people want to keep real politics to themselves, and we are at best occasional decoration, a lick of democratic gloss. And now we know that. And it’s good to know that..."
Hopefully Brendan and all those others on the right who are now so keen to empower the working class after supporting policies that do them active harm will start to advocate PR. It's the only thing that will make any practical difference as it will make working class votes important again.
My experience today. Have an hours daily tube journey to Parsons Green SW6 from Walthamstow. Been there and back already. Have seen many hundreds of people wearing a Vote Remain or Im In sticker, but not a single one for leave. Just voted at about the same time as I did in the London Mayoral election. Today roughly half the names in my (small) street had a mark by them. In May I was the only one.
Wearing a Leave sticker in London probably wouldn't be a pleasant experience.
No Leave stickers being offered at my polling station. Only Remain stickers.
I take it you mean outside the polling station, it would be breaking the rules to have them being offered inside.
My experience today. Have an hours daily tube journey to Parsons Green SW6 from Walthamstow. Been there and back already. Have seen many hundreds of people wearing a Vote Remain or Im In sticker, but not a single one for leave. Just voted at about the same time as I did in the London Mayoral election. Today roughly half the names in my (small) street had a mark by them. In May I was the only one.
Wearing a Leave sticker in London probably wouldn't be a pleasant experience.
No Leave stickers being offered at my polling station. Only Remain stickers.
I've seen a lot of "I'm In" stickers in London and I confess I wondered where they'd got them from - thanks for clearing that up!
Some investment banks and hedge funds have commissioned exit polls during the day today.
Sterlind has strengthened 1.1% so far today.
The FTSE 100 is up 1.15% so far today.
Ergo the vote is for REMAIN.
Talking of which, here's my experience
I voted in a leafy corner of Primrose Hill.
On the way out I was exit polled - yes! - by a pretty girl. I had a quick peek at her clipboard; it showed REMAIN outnumbering LEAVE by about four or five to one. Not unexpected in that neck of the woods. She said they'd been "quite busy", but she was barely 18 so possibly had nothing to judge it by.
Then on the way out I was interviewed by German radio, and I explained to the good people of Germany why I voted the way I did.
For the record, I summoned blood, stiffened sinews, and voted LEAVE, in full and stoical expectation of defeat. But also in happy anticipation of being able to blame quisling, treacherous REMAINIANS for every awful thing the EU does for the next 15 years.
And we will blame them. Oh yes, we will.
They are exit-polling Primrose Hill?
Lol
As the only exit polls we know of are being done by banks and hedge funds that might explain the surge in the pound!
Incidentally my exit poll experience shows, clearly, that exit polls are happening.
It must be those banks and hedge funds. They will be feeding the info back to HQ. So the markets are, presumably, already exhibiting some of the effects.
You're sure that lady wasn't just telling for one of the campaigns?
If PB is anything to go by - there's a significant number of homeless Tory types/others that are very unimpressed with Dave & George. Same elsewhere too.
Which is utterly bonkers, given that Dave got them the referendum they wanted.
Hopefully those who have lost their marbles over this will find them again in the next few months.
Do you think that would amount to a mass movement party? Or even a bigger party? Where would the money come from?
It might work, but I rather suspect it would be the SDP MkII.
It would be the Conservative Party and it would be bang on the nation's sweet spot.
It should retain the assets of the old Conservative Party but it would need an element of re-branding.
I thought it worth posting why I voted Leave as it is probably against my financial self-interest (although @rcs1000 you'd better be wrong about London house prices!)
Fundamentally, I've become increasingly concerned about some of the gaps opening up in this country between those who are elected to govern, and the people who they ignore and leave behind. London has always had a distinct character, but over the last 20 years, this has become increasingly pronounced.
Inevitably this has dramatically influenced the way that politicians think - for good or ill - they spend most of their time in London. Moreover, they are disconnected from the stresses and strains of ordinary life; they don't have to worry about pensions, for example, in the way that ordinary people do. From the conservative party's perspective, it's been deeply disturbing the way that they have been entranced by the glamour of dealing with the CEOs of multinationals. The conservatives are - or should be - the party of the strivers, the workers, the people who want to better themselves; the small businessmen and women who make this country great. While it might be nice to hob nob with the international elite who run big companies, those people and organisations have no interest in what is good for the UK and will happily bend and exploit the rules to maximise the increase in their share price. (To be clear, one view of the world says that is acceptable. I personally believe that a healthy capitalist system is critical to long-term shareholder value - the MNCs are trading short term gain for long-term challenges).
It is this fault line in the country that needs to be addressed. Voting to Leave, was, for me, a way for the people of this country to show the Westminster clique who is in charge. It was a way to force them to be accountable for their actions. It was a way to make them think about what is right for all of the people of this country, not just to focus on the headline numbers and ignore those who get left behind.
We can, and should, be better than that as a party and as a country. The Conservatives used to be the party of the One Nation. They have forgotten how to do that - and I fear they have forgotten what it even means.
To lead is to serve. Our leaders need to be taught that they are not in charge. Vote Leave: take control.
Have we ever had this nonsense about pencils at GEs? This election is to voters what St Patricks Day is to drinkers, amateur day.
I would hope that the capabilities of our security services are such that, in the unlikely event they felt that they needed to influence an election result, they wouldn't need to rely on a pencil rubber...
In this case the pencil is mightier than the Glock
My experience today. Have an hours daily tube journey to Parsons Green SW6 from Walthamstow. Been there and back already. Have seen many hundreds of people wearing a Vote Remain or Im In sticker, but not a single one for leave. Just voted at about the same time as I did in the London Mayoral election. Today roughly half the names in my (small) street had a mark by them. In May I was the only one.
Wearing a Leave sticker in London probably wouldn't be a pleasant experience.
No Leave stickers being offered at my polling station. Only Remain stickers.
I take it you mean outside the polling station, it would be breaking the rules to have them being offered inside.
I thought it worth posting why I voted Leave as it is probably against my financial self-interest (although @rcs1000 you'd better be wrong about London house prices!)
Fundamentally, I've become increasingly concerned about some of the gaps opening up in this country between those who are elected to govern, and the people who they ignore and leave behind. London has always had a distinct character, but over the last 20 years, this has become increasingly pronounced.
Inevitably this has dramatically influenced the way that politicians think - for good or ill - they spend most of their time in London. Moreover, they are disconnected from the stresses and strains of ordinary life; they don't have to worry about pensions, for example, in the way that ordinary people do. From the conservative party's perspective, it's been deeply disturbing the way that they have been entranced by the glamour of dealing with the CEOs of multinationals. The conservatives are - or should be - the party of the strivers, the workers, the people who want to better themselves; the small businessmen and women who make this country great. While it might be nice to hob nob with the international elite who run big companies, those people and organisations have no interest in what is good for the UK and will happily bend and exploit the rules to maximise the increase in their share price. (To be clear, one view of the world says that is acceptable. I personally believe that a healthy capitalist system is critical to long-term shareholder value - the MNCs are trading short term gain for long-term challenges).
It is this fault line in the country that needs to be addressed. Voting to Leave, was, for me, a way for the people of this country to show the Westminster clique who is in charge. It was a way to force them to be accountable for their actions. It was a way to make them think about what is right for all of the people of this country, not just to focus on the headline numbers and ignore those who get left behind.
We can, and should, be better than that as a party and as a country. The Conservatives used to be the party of the One Nation. They have forgotten how to do that - and I fear they have forgotten what it even means.
To lead is to serve. Our leaders need to be taught that they are not in charge. Vote Leave: take control.
Damn you sir, that is what I've been trying to write for days. I applaud not only your views, but your grasp of English.
Time for a new party me thinks. Any suggestions for a name, The More Concerned with One's Nation than One's Mortgage Democrats?
Didn't we agree on the Patrick Party a few weeks ago. This can be a starting point for the manifesto: https://youtu.be/rJcuKfcxo9w
"Today’s vote, although momentous and historic, won’t lead to anything very dramatic.
I have no idea which side will win. But one thing that seems clear is that it will be close. The losing side will represent a minority, but a large minority. In a democracy, large minorities can’t be ignored."
I thought it worth posting why I voted Leave as it is probably against my financial self-interest (although @rcs1000 you'd better be wrong about London house prices!)
Fundamentally, I've become increasingly concerned about some of the gaps opening up in this country between those who are elected to govern, and the people who they ignore and leave behind. London has always had a distinct character, but over the last 20 years, this has become increasingly pronounced.
Inevitably this has dramatically influenced the way that politicians think - for good or ill - they spend most of their time in London. Moreover, they are disconnected from the stresses and strains of ordinary life; they don't have to worry about pensions, for example, in the way that ordinary people do. From the conservative party's perspective, it's been deeply disturbing the way that they have been entranced by the glamour of dealing with the CEOs of multinationals. The conservatives are - or should be - the party of the strivers, the workers, the people who want to better themselves; the small businessmen and women who make this country great. While it might be nice to hob nob with the international elite who run big companies, those people and organisations have no interest in what is good for the UK and will happily bend and exploit the rules to maximise the increase in their share price. (To be clear, one view of the world says that is acceptable. I personally believe that a healthy capitalist system is critical to long-term shareholder value - the MNCs are trading short term gain for long-term challenges).
It is this fault line in the country that needs to be addressed. Voting to Leave, was, for me, a way for the people of this country to show the Westminster clique who is in charge. It was a way to force them to be accountable for their actions. It was a way to make them think about what is right for all of the people of this country, not just to focus on the headline numbers and ignore those who get left behind.
We can, and should, be better than that as a party and as a country. The Conservatives used to be the party of the One Nation. They have forgotten how to do that - and I fear they have forgotten what it even means.
To lead is to serve. Our leaders need to be taught that they are not in charge. Vote Leave: take control.
Five or six people in central London wearing 'IN' stickers - the virtue signallers choice undoubtedly. There must be a big shy leave vote.
Storms have wreaked havoc on suburban services into the capital. It really is bad. If I left after seven, I'd be worried about getting home in time to vote.
Two annoyances in the use of the English language on this site. 1. Virtue Signalling - this seems a way of saying that you disagree with someone but you want to deprive them of their right to believe whatever it is they are advocating. You are indicating that they are only saying or doing what they are to gain kudos amongst their peers. 2. Use of the 'word' 'waycist'. It's as though the user condones racism. Admittedly it is over used, as are references to Hitler.
It's pretty simple, really. People who complain about virtue signalling are virtue signalling. It's just that the virtues they seek to signal are different.
And what's this 'waycist' thing about? That everyone critical of racism has a speech impediment?
Allow me to explain. Calling people racist is intellectually lazy. Due to overuse, it now has as much impact as the hooting of a chimpanzee. It is possible to think that mass immigration is an issue while generally liking most individual immigrants. 'Waycism' is a way of expressing derision for this entirely blunted rhetorical tool.
Most people take others as they find them and form their views on someone based on how they behave, not their gender, skin colour, sexual preferences or any other irrelevant characteristic.
Based on current run rates, we will have a net increase (over and above normal population growth) of over one million people in the next three years, roughly the population of Birmingham. That is a public policy challenge that has multiple second order effects, some of which, like social cohesion, are intangible and therefore hard to measure. But, you know, people bothered by that? Racists.
Incidentally my exit poll experience shows, clearly, that exit polls are happening.
It must be those banks and hedge funds. They will be feeding the info back to HQ. So the markets are, presumably, already exhibiting some of the effects.
I wonder how many of those investment banks even know there is a Swansea? Guffaw
It must be those banks and hedge funds. They will be feeding the info back to HQ. So the markets are, presumably, already exhibiting some of the effects.
If they're basing their trades on polling data from Primrose Hill it explains a lot.
Some investment banks and hedge funds have commissioned exit polls during the day today.
Sterlind has strengthened 1.1% so far today.
The FTSE 100 is up 1.15% so far today.
Ergo the vote is for REMAIN.
Talking of which, here's my experience
I voted in a leafy corner of Primrose Hill.
On the way out I was exit polled - yes! - by a pretty girl. I had a quick peek at her clipboard; it showed REMAIN outnumbering LEAVE by about four or five to one. Not unexpected in that neck of the woods. She said they'd been "quite busy", but she was barely 18 so possibly had nothing to judge it by.
Then on the way out I was interviewed by German radio, and I explained to the good people of Germany why I voted the way I did.
For the record, I summoned blood, stiffened sinews, and voted LEAVE, in full and stoical expectation of defeat. But also in happy anticipation of being able to blame quisling, treacherous REMAINIANS for every awful thing the EU does for the next 15 years.
And we will blame them. Oh yes, we will.
Thank the Lord for that! I've been about as worried about your bottling it as the entire result.
I can't deny that REMAIN's very probable victory made it somewhat easier to vote LEAVE. I am sure that Brexit would have damaged me, in the short term, financially and maybe professionally.
But even if the polls were showing LEAVE 10 points ahead, I would have voted LEAVE (albeit with more palpitations). I made the final moral choice about five days ago, in Italy. I just woke up one morning and knew that it was the *right* thing to do, for my country - and for Europe - and hang the immediate economic consequences.
Hey ho. We will still lose. But we do it proudly, gallant in defeat, knowing our cause was just. Unlike those quislings etc etc etc
Well done. And, at least we'll have the pleasure of saying "told you so" every time the EU puts the boot in.
It must be those banks and hedge funds. They will be feeding the info back to HQ. So the markets are, presumably, already exhibiting some of the effects.
If they're basing their trades on polling data from Primrose Hill it explains a lot.
My experience today. Have an hours daily tube journey to Parsons Green SW6 from Walthamstow. Been there and back already. Have seen many hundreds of people wearing a Vote Remain or Im In sticker, but not a single one for leave. Just voted at about the same time as I did in the London Mayoral election. Today roughly half the names in my (small) street had a mark by them. In May I was the only one.
Wearing a Leave sticker in London probably wouldn't be a pleasant experience.
No Leave stickers being offered at my polling station. Only Remain stickers.
I take it you mean outside the polling station, it would be breaking the rules to have them being offered inside.
Like a few others, I'm also taking this opportunity to delurk after many years of avidly reading PB. Thanks to all those who make this the most entertaining and informative political site there is.
I've voted Leave, largely despite the way in which the campaign has been conducted rather than because of it. I've mostly been a shy leaver, cautious about saying too much in public. Partly this is because my job requires me to continue to have a good relationship with lots of different people who might disagree with me! But partly it's also because the overwhelming majority of my (mostly professional, graduate, largely leftish-leaning) friends and acquaintances are virulently pro-Remain. My Facebook feed in particular has been almost entirely one-sided, which has rather dissuaded me from arguing my case too strongly.
Incidentally, here in my small town in the south west, the polling station has been busy all long. The weather is also good at the moment. So I'm not optimistic about the outcome but am hoping for a miracle. It would also be great if there could be some reconciliation after tomorrow as well, but I'm not particularly optimistic about that either. It does seem likely to me that there will be a significant UKIP surge if Remain wins.
Welcome to PB, Ms Augustine. Lots of delurkers and old friends returning today
If leave win overnight will be like living the opening chapter of A Very British Coup...
I accept the polls will prove me a pill8ck, but outside of London and Scotland, I just don;t see where Remain's votes are coming from.
Ah well...
I think the suggestion that places like North Lanarkshire in the former industrial areas of Scotland leading by 20% might be far off the mark. I cannot see former Labour, now SNP voters being enthused about saving David Cameron's sorry arse.
"Ex-Hartlepool MP and former business secretary Peter Mandelson insisted there’ll be no “magic bullet” by leaving the European Union during a visit to Teesside.
Labour Peer Lord Mandelson – also a former trade and industry secretary and European trade commissioner – spoke to 400 delegates and guests at NEPIC's annual conference and exhibition at Wynyard Hall on Wednesday, attended by Tees Business.
He told firms from the region’s process and chemical industry that leaving the EU would be like leaving a members’ club – and turning our back on all the benefits that come with it.
“The European Union is a bit like a club, and it has very strong facilities,” said Lord Mandelson during a 20-minute speech."
When he says 'club' with 'facilities' I guess he doesn't mean a Working Men's Club with two full size snooker tables and a bar skittles table.
I'll be doing some GOTV at the HQ of Conservatives IN later today; it will be interesting to see the quality of the data, and whether Remainers are reluctant to go out if they think it's in the bag.
Hopefully Brendan and all those others on the right who are now so keen to empower the working class after supporting policies that do them active harm will start to advocate PR. It's the only thing that will make any practical difference as it will make working class votes important again.
If PB is anything to go by - there's a significant number of homeless Tory types/others that are very unimpressed with Dave & George. Same elsewhere too.
Which is utterly bonkers, given that Dave got them the referendum they wanted.
Hopefully those who have lost their marbles over this will find them again in the next few months.
Maybe some of them, but the Hardcore, they've hated Dave the day he became leader, he did not want to bang on about Europe.
It's been infuriating to listen them castigating him for everything he's done as if he could have done anything different that they would have been happy with.
It goes from people defending Trump or Putin rather than agree with Dave, or inventing bullshit reasons why they oppose gay equality. "It's not the time" "we should not be distracted, must focus on the recession" etc etc. When of course the changes required were almost cost free and required very little time in Parliament. Take minor reforms to Sunday trading laws and devolving the decision on them to local councils, just an excuse to attack, the same names involved again and again.
It's always been oppose first, then cobble together a reason.
Of course this will continue on with the right wanting to control the party and come in and do what differently? Apart from see Europe burn to the ground that is, be harsher, meaner harder on the poor? What do they actually want, do they really know anymore. I'm not sure they have any guiding principles anymore other than a hankering by some of them (luckily just not to many) to be more like the Republicans in the US and actually want to start their own version of the culture wars.
Anyway Dave is going one way or another, hopefully in 2019. It's all about the succession now.
Gove is too much the school SWOT, that even other SWOTS thought he was too uncool to hang around with. I liked him but he's gone down in my estimation for such enthusiastic deployment of blatant statistical lies. I thought he operated on a higher standard than others.
Boris the duplicitous little shit should not be let anywhere near it. Priti Patel is to harsh and I feel she feels contempt for the poor and those who don't succeed in life, no warmth whatsoever. A problem that Mr Osborne has though I'm sympathetic to his desire to build infrastructure.
Of the Old guard Ms May may do it, but might come across as a bit severe.
I have no opinion on Sajid, does he have a personality? I can't get a feel of him. Crabb seems interesting but he's only been around 5 minutes. I don't really no anyone else.
Birmingham also surprises me with 48-52 for Leave.
I think leave relying on cities like Birmingham should have rang alarm bells. A campaign based 80% on immigration is not going to win cities like Birmingham, Bradford which was also predicted to be narrowly leave. Its not that these places don't want controlled immigration they do, they are just not going to vote for a side that bangs on about that to the detriment of everything elese.
Another great post by you. In the final analysis, assuming a Remain victory, it will be the overplaying of the immigration card, and the idiocy of the hateful poster campaign that will be seen (rightly or wrongly) as the turning point. To think some on here defended it. It was a shameful, squalid campaign.
I thought it worth posting why I voted Leave as it is probably against my financial self-interest (although @rcs1000 you'd better be wrong about London house prices!)
Fundamentally, I've become increasingly concerned about some of the gaps opening up in this country between those who are elected to govern, and the people who they ignore and leave behind. London has always had a distinct character, but over the last 20 years, this has become increasingly pronounced.
Inevitably this has dramatically influenced the way that politicians think - for good or ill - they spend most of their time in London. Moreover, they are disconnected from the stresses and strains of ordinary life; they don't have to worry about pensions, for example, in the way that ordinary people do. From the conservative party's perspective, it's been deeply disturbing the way that they have been entranced by the glamour of dealing with the CEOs of multinationals. The conservatives are - or should be - the party of the strivers, the workers, the people who want to better themselves; the small businessmen and women who make this country great. While it might be nice to hob nob with the international elite who run big companies, those people and organisations have no interest in what is good for the UK and will happily bend and exploit the rules to maximise the increase in their share price. (To be clear, one view of the world says that is acceptable. I personally believe that a healthy capitalist system is critical to long-term shareholder value - the MNCs are trading short term gain for long-term challenges).
It is this fault line in the country that needs to be addressed. Voting to Leave, was, for me, a way for the people of this country to show the Westminster clique who is in charge. It was a way to force them to be accountable for their actions. It was a way to make them think about what is right for all of the people of this country, not just to focus on the headline numbers and ignore those who get left behind.
We can, and should, be better than that as a party and as a country. The Conservatives used to be the party of the One Nation. They have forgotten how to do that - and I fear they have forgotten what it even means.
To lead is to serve. Our leaders need to be taught that they are not in charge. Vote Leave: take control.
Very good post. I don't agree with all of it, but I wish this case had been made in the campaign. Just as I wish we had heard more from the left on the issues identified by the Guardian writer who is voting no.
It must be those banks and hedge funds. They will be feeding the info back to HQ. So the markets are, presumably, already exhibiting some of the effects.
If they're basing their trades on polling data from Primrose Hill it explains a lot.
thats the no 1 remain location in the united kingdom according to some chart I saw
I agree with almost all of that, Mr Charles. And the identification of government circles with big business was one of the reasons I too voted for Leave.
I think where you go wrong is to look back to some golden age when the Conservative Party was anything else. They sometimes pretended to be on the side of the "little people" - but that was always the territory of the Liberals.
Perhaps we are indeed on the point of seeing a major shake-up of the party political system?
It was the territory of the Peelite Conservatives. They just chose to call themselves Liberals for a few years.
Like a few others, I'm also taking this opportunity to delurk after many years of avidly reading PB. Thanks to all those who make this the most entertaining and informative political site there is.
I've voted Leave, largely despite the way in which the campaign has been conducted rather than because of it. I've mostly been a shy leaver, cautious about saying too much in public. Partly this is because my job requires me to continue to have a good relationship with lots of different people who might disagree with me! But partly it's also because the overwhelming majority of my (mostly professional, graduate, largely leftish-leaning) friends and acquaintances are virulently pro-Remain. My Facebook feed in particular has been almost entirely one-sided, which has rather dissuaded me from arguing my case too strongly.
Incidentally, here in my small town in the south west, the polling station has been busy all long. The weather is also good at the moment. So I'm not optimistic about the outcome but am hoping for a miracle. It would also be great if there could be some reconciliation after tomorrow as well, but I'm not particularly optimistic about that either. It does seem likely to me that there will be a significant UKIP surge if Remain wins.
Welcome to PB, Ms Augustine. Lots of delurkers and old friends returning today
Incidentally my exit poll experience shows, clearly, that exit polls are happening.
It must be those banks and hedge funds. They will be feeding the info back to HQ. So the markets are, presumably, already exhibiting some of the effects.
You're sure that lady wasn't just telling for one of the campaigns?
She explicitly said "I'm doing an exit poll". I believed her. She was too young and naive to be that guileful.
Other than councillors, many activists don't actually understand what the point of telling is.
I agree with almost all of that, Mr Charles. And the identification of government circles with big business was one of the reasons I too voted for Leave.
I think where you go wrong is to look back to some golden age when the Conservative Party was anything else. They sometimes pretended to be on the side of the "little people" - but that was always the territory of the Liberals.
Perhaps we are indeed on the point of seeing a major shake-up of the party political system?
It won't be long before there are more self-employed people than public sector employees. That represents a massive opportunity for a party prepared to be economically and socially liberal, and on the side of the relatively powerless.
Some investment banks and hedge funds have commissioned exit polls during the day today.
Sterlind has strengthened 1.1% so far today.
The FTSE 100 is up 1.15% so far today.
Ergo the vote is for REMAIN.
Talking of which, here's my experience
I voted in a leafy corner of Primrose Hill.
On the way out I was exit polled - yes! - by a pretty girl. I had a quick peek at her clipboard; it showed REMAIN outnumbering LEAVE by about four or five to one. Not unexpected in that neck of the woods. She said they'd been "quite busy", but she was barely 18 so possibly had nothing to judge it by.
Then on the way out I was interviewed by German radio, and I explained to the good people of Germany why I voted the way I did.
For the record, I summoned blood, stiffened sinews, and voted LEAVE, in full and stoical expectation of defeat. But also in happy anticipation of being able to blame quisling, treacherous REMAINIANS for every awful thing the EU does for the next 15 years.
Five or six people in central London wearing 'IN' stickers - the virtue signallers choice undoubtedly. There must be a big shy leave vote.
Storms have wreaked havoc on suburban services into the capital. It really is bad. If I left after seven, I'd be worried about getting home in time to vote.
Two annoyances in the use of the English language on this site. 1. Virtue Signalling - this seems a way of saying that you disagree with someone but you want to deprive them of their right to believe whatever it is they are advocating. You are indicating that they are only saying or doing what they are to gain kudos amongst their peers. 2. Use of the 'word' 'waycist'. It's as though the user condones racism. Admittedly it is over used, as are references to Hitler.
It's pretty simple, really. People who complain about virtue signalling are virtue signalling. It's just that the virtues they seek to signal are different.
And what's this 'waycist' thing about? That everyone critical of racism has a speech impediment?
It is a term of abuse - mocking the way that the use of the word 'racist' was once used to try and stifle debate on immigration. As someone has said - the lid is off. Whether the Genie will escape is another matter.
WOW! This is a great read and the case those on the Left should've made for Leave.
I am very sympathetic. The problem is, those people have no-one standing up for them. The remain establishment aren't interested, while the likes of Johnson, Gove and probably Farage want to get out of the EU because it fetters capitalism too much.
The left in Britain still hasn't grasped some basic truths that Germany's left understood 15 years ago. In a globalising world you can only protect wages by increasing the value added by labour, and holding down the cost of living does more for living standards than allowing wage inflation to take hold.
I agree with this and I would like David Cameron or his successor to think about how those left behind by globalisation can be supported. I think leaving the EU is offering false hope, by not tackling the real issues. Unfortunately I think Mr Cameron will be only too glad to move on.
I agree with almost all of that, Mr Charles. And the identification of government circles with big business was one of the reasons I too voted for Leave.
I think where you go wrong is to look back to some golden age when the Conservative Party was anything else. They sometimes pretended to be on the side of the "little people" - but that was always the territory of the Liberals.
Perhaps we are indeed on the point of seeing a major shake-up of the party political system?
It won't be long before there are more self-employed people than public sector employees. That represents a massive opportunity for a party prepared to be economically and socially liberal, and on the side of the relatively powerless.
If PB is anything to go by - there's a significant number of homeless Tory types/others that are very unimpressed with Dave & George. Same elsewhere too.
Which is utterly bonkers, given that Dave got them the referendum they wanted.
Hopefully those who have lost their marbles over this will find them again in the next few months.
Gove is too much the school SWOT, that even other SWOTS thought he was too uncool to hang around with. I liked him but he's gone down in my estimation for such enthusiastic deployment of blatant statistical lies. I thought he operated on a higher standard than others.
Funny, this is always exactly as I have perceived him, even going so far as saying so to my wife. The class swot.
"Ex-Hartlepool MP and former business secretary Peter Mandelson insisted there’ll be no “magic bullet” by leaving the European Union during a visit to Teesside.
Labour Peer Lord Mandelson – also a former trade and industry secretary and European trade commissioner – spoke to 400 delegates and guests at NEPIC's annual conference and exhibition at Wynyard Hall on Wednesday, attended by Tees Business.
He told firms from the region’s process and chemical industry that leaving the EU would be like leaving a members’ club – and turning our back on all the benefits that come with it.
“The European Union is a bit like a club, and it has very strong facilities,” said Lord Mandelson during a 20-minute speech."
When he says 'club' with 'facilities' I guess he doesn't mean a Working Men's Club with two full size snooker tables and a bar skittles table.
For the record the Oz coverage has been woeful on the Brexit but there is a GE here so perhaps explains it. My view is SNP badly missed a trick. EU fought against indy and played lots of dirty tricks so would have said no economic union without Scots setting the rules. Out first then reapply when Scot is able to do on own terms. Vote will be 60% plus remaon as SNP and others will support but think a strong No demanding own control of fishing etc would have been way to go.
Birmingham also surprises me with 48-52 for Leave.
I think leave relying on cities like Birmingham should have rang alarm bells. A campaign based 80% on immigration is not going to win cities like Birmingham, Bradford which was also predicted to be narrowly leave. Its not that these places don't want controlled immigration they do, they are just not going to vote for a side that bangs on about that to the detriment of everything elese.
Another great post by you. In the final analysis, assuming a Remain victory, it will be the overplaying of the immigration card, and the idiocy of the hateful poster campaign that will be seen (rightly or wrongly) as the turning point. To think some on here defended it. It was a shameful, squalid campaign.
Five or six people in central London wearing 'IN' stickers - the virtue signallers choice undoubtedly. There must be a big shy leave vote.
Storms have wreaked havoc on suburban services into the capital. It really is bad. If I left after seven, I'd be worried about getting home in time to vote.
Two annoyances in the use of the English language on this site. 1. Virtue Signalling - this seems a way of saying that you disagree with someone but you want to deprive them of their right to believe whatever it is they are advocating. You are indicating that they are only saying or doing what they are to gain kudos amongst their peers. 2. Use of the 'word' 'waycist'. It's as though the user condones racism. Admittedly it is over used, as are references to Hitler.
It's pretty simple, really. People who complain about virtue signalling are virtue signalling. It's just that the virtues they seek to signal are different.
And what's this 'waycist' thing about? That everyone critical of racism has a speech impediment?
Allow me to explain. Calling people racist is intellectually lazy. Due to overuse, it now has as much impact as the hooting of a chimpanzee. It is possible to think that mass immigration is an issue while generally liking most individual immigrants. 'Waycism' is a way of expressing derision for this entirely blunted rhetorical tool.
Most people take others as they find them and form their views on someone based on how they behave, not their gender, skin colour, sexual preferences or any other irrelevant characteristic.
Based on current run rates, we will have a net increase (over and above normal population growth) of over one million people in the next three years, roughly the population of Birmingham. That is a public policy challenge that has multiple second order effects, some of which, like social cohesion, are intangible and therefore hard to measure. But, you know, people bothered by that? Racists.
Incidentally my exit poll experience shows, clearly, that exit polls are happening.
It must be those banks and hedge funds. They will be feeding the info back to HQ. So the markets are, presumably, already exhibiting some of the effects.
I hope they are polling places other than Primrose Hill!
My experience today. Have an hours daily tube journey to Parsons Green SW6 from Walthamstow. Been there and back already. Have seen many hundreds of people wearing a Vote Remain or Im In sticker, but not a single one for leave. Just voted at about the same time as I did in the London Mayoral election. Today roughly half the names in my (small) street had a mark by them. In May I was the only one.
Wearing a Leave sticker in London probably wouldn't be a pleasant experience.
I agree with almost all of that, Mr Charles. And the identification of government circles with big business was one of the reasons I too voted for Leave.
I think where you go wrong is to look back to some golden age when the Conservative Party was anything else. They sometimes pretended to be on the side of the "little people" - but that was always the territory of the Liberals.
Perhaps we are indeed on the point of seeing a major shake-up of the party political system?
It won't be long before there are more self-employed people than public sector employees. That represents a massive opportunity for a party prepared to be economically and socially liberal, and on the side of the relatively powerless.
Good point.
Dan H can be leader, and Charles can write the speeches. Sandpit and I will come up with the swift rebuttal department.
We might even let TSE in - after a Gaullist delay, of course.
I'll be doing some GOTV at the HQ of Conservatives IN later today; it will be interesting to see the quality of the data, and whether Remainers are reluctant to go out if they think it's in the bag.
If it's anything like the quality of past Tory data, it won't tell you much!
Some investment banks and hedge funds have commissioned exit polls during the day today.
Sterlind has strengthened 1.1% so far today.
The FTSE 100 is up 1.15% so far today.
Ergo the vote is for REMAIN.
Talking of which, here's my experience
I voted in a leafy corner of Primrose Hill.
On the way out I was exit polled - yes! - by a pretty girl. I had a quick peek at her clipboard; it showed REMAIN outnumbering LEAVE by about four or five to one. Not unexpected in that neck of the woods. She said they'd been "quite busy", but she was barely 18 so possibly had nothing to judge it by.
Then on the way out I was interviewed by German radio, and I explained to the good people of Germany why I voted the way I did.
For the record, I summoned blood, stiffened sinews, and voted LEAVE, in full and stoical expectation of defeat. But also in happy anticipation of being able to blame quisling, treacherous REMAINIANS for every awful thing the EU does for the next 15 years.
And we will blame them. Oh yes, we will.
Thank the Lord for that! I've been about as worried about your bottling it as the entire result.
I can't deny that REMAIN's very probable victory made it somewhat easier to vote LEAVE. I am sure that Brexit would have damaged me, in the short term, financially and maybe professionally.
But even if the polls were showing LEAVE 10 points ahead, I would have voted LEAVE (albeit with more palpitations). I made the final moral choice about five days ago, in Italy. I just woke up one morning and knew that it was the *right* thing to do, for my country - and for Europe - and hang the immediate economic consequences.
Hey ho. We will still lose. But we do it proudly, gallant in defeat, knowing our cause was just. Unlike those quislings etc etc etc
Well done. And, at least we'll have the pleasure of saying "told you so" every time the EU puts the boot in.
My experience today. Have an hours daily tube journey to Parsons Green SW6 from Walthamstow. Been there and back already. Have seen many hundreds of people wearing a Vote Remain or Im In sticker, but not a single one for leave. Just voted at about the same time as I did in the London Mayoral election. Today roughly half the names in my (small) street had a mark by them. In May I was the only one.
Wearing a Leave sticker in London probably wouldn't be a pleasant experience.
Comments
On board a very busy 14:00 Kings Cross - Aberdeen train so should be on site and ready to see how it's going in Stockton around 5ish.
Fun final polls. And the odds are genuinely silly - big money desperately wants us to stay in, so a spread of sill money bets at crap odds really pushes the odds towards their cause.
If leave win overnight will be like living the opening chapter of A Very British Coup...
Fundamentally, I've become increasingly concerned about some of the gaps opening up in this country between those who are elected to govern, and the people who they ignore and leave behind. London has always had a distinct character, but over the last 20 years, this has become increasingly pronounced.
Inevitably this has dramatically influenced the way that politicians think - for good or ill - they spend most of their time in London. Moreover, they are disconnected from the stresses and strains of ordinary life; they don't have to worry about pensions, for example, in the way that ordinary people do. From the conservative party's perspective, it's been deeply disturbing the way that they have been entranced by the glamour of dealing with the CEOs of multinationals. The conservatives are - or should be - the party of the strivers, the workers, the people who want to better themselves; the small businessmen and women who make this country great. While it might be nice to hob nob with the international elite who run big companies, those people and organisations have no interest in what is good for the UK and will happily bend and exploit the rules to maximise the increase in their share price. (To be clear, one view of the world says that is acceptable. I personally believe that a healthy capitalist system is critical to long-term shareholder value - the MNCs are trading short term gain for long-term challenges).
It is this fault line in the country that needs to be addressed. Voting to Leave, was, for me, a way for the people of this country to show the Westminster clique who is in charge. It was a way to force them to be accountable for their actions. It was a way to make them think about what is right for all of the people of this country, not just to focus on the headline numbers and ignore those who get left behind.
We can, and should, be better than that as a party and as a country. The Conservatives used to be the party of the One Nation. They have forgotten how to do that - and I fear they have forgotten what it even means.
To lead is to serve. Our leaders need to be taught that they are not in charge. Vote Leave: take control.
"But I look at my daughter Nancy and think that in only six years she could be starting an apprenticeship"
My favourite moment of the campaign. It doesn't get more authentic than that, I'm sure you'll agree.
I accept the polls will prove me a pill8ck, but outside of London and Scotland, I just don;t see where Remain's votes are coming from.
Ah well...
"Today’s vote, although momentous and historic, won’t lead to anything very dramatic.
I have no idea which side will win. But one thing that seems clear is that it will be close. The losing side will represent a minority, but a large minority. In a democracy, large minorities can’t be ignored."
http://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2016/06/daniel-hannan-today-for-once-we-can-choose-our-own-future-outside-the-eu.html
I've voted Leave, largely despite the way in which the campaign has been conducted rather than because of it. I've mostly been a shy leaver, cautious about saying too much in public. Partly this is because my job requires me to continue to have a good relationship with lots of different people who might disagree with me! But partly it's also because the overwhelming majority of my (mostly professional, graduate, largely leftish-leaning) friends and acquaintances are virulently pro-Remain. My Facebook feed in particular has been almost entirely one-sided, which has rather dissuaded me from arguing my case too strongly.
Incidentally, here in my small town in the south west, the polling station has been busy all long. The weather is also good at the moment. So I'm not optimistic about the outcome but am hoping for a miracle. It would also be great if there could be some reconciliation after tomorrow as well, but I'm not particularly optimistic about that either. It does seem likely to me that there will be a significant UKIP surge if Remain wins.
This election is to voters what St Patricks Day is to drinkers, amateur day.
Time for a new party me thinks. Any suggestions for a name, The More Concerned with One's Nation than One's Mortgage Democrats?
Lol
I think where you go wrong is to look back to some golden age when the Conservative Party was anything else. They sometimes pretended to be on the side of the "little people" - but that was always the territory of the Liberals.
Perhaps we are indeed on the point of seeing a major shake-up of the party political system?
The politicians should be afraid of the electorate. Hopefully a close result today will remind them of that.
Where I live in Sussex, nothing but Leave posters
This can be a starting point for the manifesto:
https://youtu.be/rJcuKfcxo9w
Last night it only just passed £50 million
Most people take others as they find them and form their views on someone based on how they behave, not their gender, skin colour, sexual preferences or any other irrelevant characteristic.
Based on current run rates, we will have a net increase (over and above normal population growth) of over one million people in the next three years, roughly the population of Birmingham. That is a public policy challenge that has multiple second order effects, some of which, like social cohesion, are intangible and therefore hard to measure. But, you know, people bothered by that? Racists.
Guffaw
Good news is she can now get a job with a Living Wage!
@willowhalegreen: Police came to Chichester polling station called by REMAIN side to stop me LENDING my PEN to all voters.#fraud https://t.co/CGqra3yXR1
"Ex-Hartlepool MP and former business secretary Peter Mandelson insisted there’ll be no “magic bullet” by leaving the European Union during a visit to Teesside.
Labour Peer Lord Mandelson – also a former trade and industry secretary and European trade commissioner – spoke to 400 delegates and guests at NEPIC's annual conference and exhibition at Wynyard Hall on Wednesday, attended by Tees Business.
He told firms from the region’s process and chemical industry that leaving the EU would be like leaving a members’ club – and turning our back on all the benefits that come with it.
“The European Union is a bit like a club, and it has very strong facilities,” said Lord Mandelson during a 20-minute speech."
When he says 'club' with 'facilities' I guess he doesn't mean a Working Men's Club with two full size snooker tables and a bar skittles table.
It's been infuriating to listen them castigating him for everything he's done as if he could have done anything different that they would have been happy with.
It goes from people defending Trump or Putin rather than agree with Dave, or inventing bullshit reasons why they oppose gay equality. "It's not the time" "we should not be distracted, must focus on the recession" etc etc. When of course the changes required were almost cost free and required very little time in Parliament. Take minor reforms to Sunday trading laws and devolving the decision on them to local councils, just an excuse to attack, the same names involved again and again.
It's always been oppose first, then cobble together a reason.
Of course this will continue on with the right wanting to control the party and come in and do what differently? Apart from see Europe burn to the ground that is, be harsher, meaner harder on the poor? What do they actually want, do they really know anymore. I'm not sure they have any guiding principles anymore other than a hankering by some of them (luckily just not to many) to be more like the Republicans in the US and actually want to start their own version of the culture wars.
Anyway Dave is going one way or another, hopefully in 2019. It's all about the succession now.
Gove is too much the school SWOT, that even other SWOTS thought he was too uncool to hang around with. I liked him but he's gone down in my estimation for such enthusiastic deployment of blatant statistical lies. I thought he operated on a higher standard than others.
Boris the duplicitous little shit should not be let anywhere near it. Priti Patel is to harsh and I feel she feels contempt for the poor and those who don't succeed in life, no warmth whatsoever. A problem that Mr Osborne has though I'm sympathetic to his desire to build infrastructure.
Of the Old guard Ms May may do it, but might come across as a bit severe.
I have no opinion on Sajid, does he have a personality? I can't get a feel of him. Crabb seems interesting but he's only been around 5 minutes. I don't really no anyone else.
In the final analysis, assuming a Remain victory, it will be the overplaying of the immigration card, and the idiocy of the hateful poster campaign that will be seen (rightly or wrongly) as the turning point. To think some on here defended it. It was a shameful, squalid campaign.
One thing's for sure...Its a sucker's buy at these prices.
How the devil are you?
Two bars and a pool table at my one
Lots of Vote Leave activity in Enfield Town, but then Dr. Hanretty has Enfield as more or less 50/50.
Both campaigns were squalid.
I hope to be wrong though.
Dan H can be leader, and Charles can write the speeches. Sandpit and I will come up with the swift rebuttal department.
We might even let TSE in - after a Gaullist delay, of course.
The waycist thing was downright weird.
Some clown on here posted – apparently in all seriousness – that this campaign "came down to the racists vs the waycists".
I was, and am, none the wiser.
Bend over because we are about to get the dockside hooker treatment from Junker and pals.
Oh and there will never be another referendum. The EU will make absolutely certain of that and very very quickly.