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  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,719
    My point about the "hung parliament" predictions from a year ago is that they were found to be WANTING!

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,989
    Jobabob said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Jeremy Paxman's EU referendum debate gets 1.6m viewers' vote.
    https://t.co/YxyXfkdTQO https://t.co/Z8Gvrnk1v2

    Twice this week the schedulers have put EU debates on at the same time as the football.

    Which do they think most people would prefer to watch?
    Someone who wanted to watch the debate would not be put off by the football being on at the same time, it makes no difference.

    The dedicated watch both, and follow the cricket online while posting on PB as well.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,458
    RobD said:

    I've yet to vote BTW, but hope to do so this afternoon. Weather doesn't look toi great in London though. Fine for the moment up in the Midlands.

    http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

    I wouldn't bother going through all that hassle to vote. One vote won't make a difference. Honest
    I gave The Sun their "Be LEAVE" headline, and you're expecting me NOT to vote???

    :open_mouth:

    BTW my presentation was postponed till next week, thankfully :)
    I'm trying to make sure you don't have to visit Essex.

    I've taken an elderly voter to the voting station, so he could vote Leave, he was so happy to have voted Leave.

    Democracy is great.
    Do you love democracy, TSE? What are your thoughts on Republican governments?

    :D:D
    Apart from the fact I'd be a terrible Puritan, I'd be a Roundhead, not a Cavalier
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    edited June 2016

    John_M said:

    Based on the apocalyptic forecasts we've had on here, Cameron was grossly irresponsible to offer a referendum that he could easily have lost, based on the prejudices of the poor, the ignorant and the racists.

    No, he wasn't. He was being democratic. This is an issue which has to be resolved.

    By tonight at 10pm, it will be resolved, although we won't know how for a few hours. Then the world will move on, and politicians and voters will worry about other things (Heathrow, for a starter!). Tempers will cool, it will all be ancient history soon.

    Just like gay marriage, to take one example (an issue which I think actually caused more anger amongst some party members than the referendum has).

    By tonight at 10pm, it will be resolved,

    I doubt it. If anything this referendum has shown up divisions in the country that were previously papered over.

    A 2:1 decision in either direction would resolve it, but I don't think we're going to get that. And the underlying issues are not going away, if anything they are likely to get worse.

    The Brendan O'Neill article is cracking - he says the furies have escaped from Pandora's box.

    http://www.spiked-online.com/newsite/article/why-today-is-a-great-day-for-democracy/18488

    "...We should be glad of all this naked elitism, of this media and political agitation with the fact that the masses have been asked to make a real decision for a change. Because it utterly explodes the myth that they are interested in engaging with us. In recent years, inhabitants of the Westminster bubble and media circles have gone on endlessly about the need to get more Ordinary People into politics, on to focus groups, ‘having their say’.

    There have been ceaseless campaigns to get the vote out, to ‘empower people’. And now we know they didn’t mean a word of it. They like the demos when it’s making small decisions, when it’s nodding along at a staged focus group, when it’s putting an X in a box for parties that are indistinguishable — that is, when it isn’t really behaving as a demos at all. But when we’re asked to decide on something as big as the very nature of our nation, they go into meltdown. Their true dread of the demos comes out. Make no mistake: these people want to keep real politics to themselves, and we are at best occasional decoration, a lick of democratic gloss. And now we know that. And it’s good to know that..."
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352

    pbr2013 said:

    Some investment banks and hedge funds have commissioned exit polls during the day today.

    Sterlind has strengthened 1.1% so far today.

    The FTSE 100 is up 1.15% so far today.

    Ergo the vote is for REMAIN.

    Junior posted yesterday (?) about such exit polls: no better than guesswork without the baseline polling station dataset that informs to GE exit polls.
    Which does rather beg the same question about opinion polls
    Quite.
  • polargaelpolargael Posts: 8
    Good afternoon from Highland Perthshire. First time poster and (very) long time lurker. I'll open by saying that I've enjoyed the site and the banter in the comments over many years.

    Ah, those final polls: the swingback to the 'status quo' is well captured. Having been through all this before a couple of years back in the indyref, I suspect we are heading for a Remain win. Leave never took enough of a consistent lead in the polls to be invulnerable to the 'clingback' to the security blanket of the already known that is now underway.

    Except that in this case, clinging on to the already known is a false premise: no one has a clue as to what the EU will look like in 5 years, let alone 10 or 20. Nor has the opportunity been taken by Remain to articulate this. Pity: it might have been a chance to present a positive vision of the EU's future, instead of poisoning the well of public debate with yet another pernicious Project Fear. Deplorable campaign. Leave no better either, spraying BS, half truths and untruths everywhere. Casting the vote on this occasion, it really and truly has felt like Hobson's Choice.

    However, given the EU's economic situation, not to mention the widespread social misery it has caused, particularly among the youth in the southern med member states, it is clearly in need of massive and rapid structural reform. Chuck in the migrant/refugee crisis and I doubt it will make it as far as 2020.

    As for the Tories, I've always considered Cameron to be a lucky PM. There was a point at which it looked as though his luck had run out this time, but this now looks unlikely. I suspect there will be rumblings to remove him, but he may be able to buy them off by reiterating his intention to go soon anyway and by moving Gideon (who is now politically toxic) to For Sec (which would in its own way be hilarious).

    There's also an outside chance that he'll chuck it sooner than expected: he looks done in, will be unable to pass any remotely contentious legislation given how split the party now is and winning the EUref would be a way of ending on a high of sorts.

    Prepare for the UKIP surge though. All those Leavers are going to be very hacked off and many will head straight to UKIP. England (and Wales) is about to replicate the post-2014 Scottish experience.

    As for the SNP, they will have to be very patient indeed.


  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046
    Will anyone be doing a constituency and/or FPTP analysis? What if, for example FPTP would have won it for one side but the other wins on straight votes?
  • polargaelpolargael Posts: 8
    2/2 Full disclosure: I held my nose and reluctantly voted Leave this morning, with a heavy heart. I voted Yes in the indyref (so go figure) but am no great fan of the SNP. Am too economically dry for their liking.

    And this is fundamentally why I voted Leave: the EU is an economic basket case. The € is structurally flawed and destined to fail. To deploy an overused metaphor, the EU is a ship which is steaming, out of control, towards a number of icebergs. It is merely a matter of time before it collides with any one of them.

    A Leave majority would at least have been a lifeboat in which to get the hell off the ship.

    Now, barring a miracle, we will be going down with the rest of them when it all implodes.

    My hope is that the resulting mess will finally produce a crop of politicians who have some vision again, instead of (in the main) the current crop of careerist managerial types. They are pygmies birling around like weathervanes.

    We'll know the result soon enough and perhaps, in time, we'll get some more political visionaries who are more towards the signpost end of the spectrum.

    Good luck, everyone, and tak tent.

    PG
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    kle4 said:

    Jobabob said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Jeremy Paxman's EU referendum debate gets 1.6m viewers' vote.
    https://t.co/YxyXfkdTQO https://t.co/Z8Gvrnk1v2

    Twice this week the schedulers have put EU debates on at the same time as the football.

    Which do they think most people would prefer to watch?
    Someone who wanted to watch the debate would not be put off by the football being on at the same time, it makes no difference.

    The dedicated watch both, and follow the cricket online while posting on PB as well.
    Doesn't everyone have a triple head PC? Darling, life would simply be unbearable without multiple screens :). The Internet has ruined me for doing one thing at a time. I couldn't imagine sitting and watching TV now.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,719
    polargael said:

    2/2 Full disclosure: I held my nose and reluctantly voted Leave this morning, with a heavy heart. I voted Yes in the indyref (so go figure) but am no great fan of the SNP. Am too economically dry for their liking.

    And this is fundamentally why I voted Leave: the EU is an economic basket case. The € is structurally flawed and destined to fail. To deploy an overused metaphor, the EU is a ship which is steaming, out of control, towards a number of icebergs. It is merely a matter of time before it collides with any one of them.

    A Leave majority would at least have been a lifeboat in which to get the hell off the ship.

    Now, barring a miracle, we will be going down with the rest of them when it all implodes.

    My hope is that the resulting mess will finally produce a crop of politicians who have some vision again, instead of (in the main) the current crop of careerist managerial types. They are pygmies birling around like weathervanes.

    We'll know the result soon enough and perhaps, in time, we'll get some more political visionaries who are more towards the signpost end of the spectrum.

    Good luck, everyone, and tak tent.

    PG

    Welcome to PB, PG, and splendid reasoning!
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,800

    Danny565 said:

    Danny565 said:

    Ukip might do well to get someone like Flynn as their leader rather than Farage. There are people who would be tempted to vote for them under a different leader.

    I think Diane James would be their best bet.

    Suzanne Evans is obviously the closest UKIP has to a media darling, but I think she's a bit too posh for UKIP's target audience.
    Suzanne Evans is their best bet. Firstly, her work on the UKIP manifesto was top notch. Secondly, she is a good media performer. Thirdly, she will appeal to a very different demographic to Farage, who is more than a little marmite.
    Suzanne Evans seems like a nice lady, but as I say everything about her accent and demeanour blares "middle-class typical Tory woman". I'm not sure that would peel off disaffected Labour voters in the north.
    Maggie won three elections as a "middle-class typical Tory woman"!!!
    Which would be fine if she were wanting to be Tory leader! But she isn't and I don't think ukip want to replace the Tories.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,233
    edited June 2016
    PlatoSaid said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Well I voted LEAVE around 30 minutes ago.

    Anecdote alert:

    Polling station was having a "lull" but one of the ladies handing out ballot papers said it had been the busiest she's ever seen it (and she's been doing this since the 1970 general election)

    Where are you?
    I'm in eastern England. LEAVE country, lol! :smiley:

    Mind you, we heard these reports about how big the turnout would be for last years general election and in the end it was nothing special.

    I do think this time it will be a very big turnout this time though....
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669

    Tim_B said:

    What time will results start coming in?

    12.30am UK time I think
    Nice and civilized - I shall have a pleasant evening - hopefully.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,462
    Welcome to all the old hands returning and especially to the lurkers delurking. Great to have your take on this not-many-times-in-a-lifetime event.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    polargael said:

    2/2 Full disclosure: I held my nose and reluctantly voted Leave this morning, with a heavy heart. I voted Yes in the indyref (so go figure) but am no great fan of the SNP. Am too economically dry for their liking.

    And this is fundamentally why I voted Leave: the EU is an economic basket case. The € is structurally flawed and destined to fail. To deploy an overused metaphor, the EU is a ship which is steaming, out of control, towards a number of icebergs. It is merely a matter of time before it collides with any one of them.

    A Leave majority would at least have been a lifeboat in which to get the hell off the ship.

    Now, barring a miracle, we will be going down with the rest of them when it all implodes.

    My hope is that the resulting mess will finally produce a crop of politicians who have some vision again, instead of (in the main) the current crop of careerist managerial types. They are pygmies birling around like weathervanes.

    We'll know the result soon enough and perhaps, in time, we'll get some more political visionaries who are more towards the signpost end of the spectrum.

    Good luck, everyone, and tak tent.

    PG

    Welcome aboard, PG.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    IanB2 said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    If PB is anything to go by - there's a significant number of homeless Tory types/others that are very unimpressed with Dave & George. Same elsewhere too.

    Which is utterly bonkers, given that Dave got them the referendum they wanted.

    Hopefully those who have lost their marbles over this will find them again in the next few months.
    Richard, it isn't bonkers to be unhappy with Cameron if you are a Leave Tory. I am grateful that we finally got a referendum on Europe but it's clear from the tone Cameron has taken it wasn't granted out of the goodness of his heart or because he thought there was a worthwhile debate to be had. He probably never thought he'd have to do it as he wasn't expecting to win the GE (even on the night of the election itself).

    He's campaigned robustly, which is his and Osborne's right and duty, but there are a lot of Tories who felt that the Conservative Party was the best vehicle for removing the UK from the EU and, when push came to shove, the Euro-sceptic rhetoric of Cameron, Osborne and others has been exposed as just that, rhetoric.

    There's obviously a lot of anger on both sides of the Tory famly at the moment and much will cool over the next few weeks and months but the scars will still be there for decades to come and I, for one, and going to find it hard to vote for a Tory Party led by a Remainer. I probably will, as I've never voted anything else, but both sides are hurting.
    As a non-Tory I agree that Dave's plan was:

    a) to go into coalition and be 'persuaded' not to have the Referendum, or

    b) to use the Referendum to lance the boil in the Tory Party once and for all and so cast his EU-obsessive wing into outer darkness

    So I can understand why some Tories aren't big Dave fans right now.

    Personally I think both a) (best) and b) (worthwhile) were worth going for....
    Fair enough. What is the effect on the Conservative Party though. Last time I saw any figures the membership was down to about 150,000 (less than half of the number Cameron inherited). Of whom maybe 50%, or even a little more, would prefer to leave the EU, how many of those will stay on next year?.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,908
    pinkrose said:

    pinkrose said:

    I've said it before and I'll say it again we NEED electoral reform after this. FPTP with the two big party system crushing the smaller parties is surely on it's last legs? The Tories are a coalition that is pulling apart and so are Labour, its ridiculous.

    What an irony that would be for the Lib Dems. They get into government and fail hopelessly to get electoral reform. They then get annihilated by the electorate and what do you know, electoral reform is just around the corner to the benefit of.........

    Ukip. Spare a thought for Nick Clegg.
    Not just UKIP but the Greens as well.

    I just think there is such a range of political views in England now that FPTP is really damaging and is a big factor in people feeling disenfranchised from politics and the "nothing ever changes" attitude. We need Proportional Representation, if not in the HoC then an elected second chamber, with PR.
    STV for the HoC, if the Lords get elected by PR they'd have more authority than the Commons.
    In passing and to get some facts straight, everyone knows that the LibDems got hammered for being in coalition, but it's worth noting that they still have eight times as many MPs as UKIP or the Greens and infinitely more councils.
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2016/councils
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,800
    Off to vote. Without a polling card.........
  • RobD said:

    I've yet to vote BTW, but hope to do so this afternoon. Weather doesn't look toi great in London though. Fine for the moment up in the Midlands.

    http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

    I wouldn't bother going through all that hassle to vote. One vote won't make a difference. Honest
    I gave The Sun their "Be LEAVE" headline, and you're expecting me NOT to vote???

    :open_mouth:

    BTW my presentation was postponed till next week, thankfully :)
    I'm trying to make sure you don't have to visit Essex.

    I've taken an elderly voter to the voting station, so he could vote Leave, he was so happy to have voted Leave.

    Democracy is great.
    Do you love democracy, TSE? What are your thoughts on Republican governments?

    :D:D
    Apart from the fact I'd be a terrible Puritan, I'd be a Roundhead, not a Cavalier
    I've always thought that the best position on the Civil War was to be a parliamentarian in the first civil war and a royalist in the second once the hardliners took over. I like to think I'd have got purged by Pride! :)
  • pinkrosepinkrose Posts: 189
    WOW! This is a great read and the case those on the Left should've made for Leave.

    This is spot on by the Guardian’s – money expert, Patrick Collinson, explaining why he is voting Leave:

    "I know a painter/decorator who has not been able to raise his wages for 15 years. There’s always someone else, he says, willing to work for less. A driver who arrived from Turkey 18 years ago, who says the bus companies used to pay more than £12 an hour, but can now pay £10 or less because they have so many takers (and yes, the irony is noted). A care-home cleaner in a rundown seaside town who reckons her hopes of ever getting more than the minimum wage are zero. Each blames an influx of workers from the EU. Each of them are voting out. Tell them the EU protects workers’ rights and they just laugh.

    When companies launch recruitment drives in eastern Europe they blame skills shortages in Britain. Really? If a big business wants to hire, say, drivers on £25 an hour, it will find it can do so easily; what they really mean is that they can’t find people willing to work for £10 an hour or less, with antisocial hours to boot. Meanwhile, workers here rejecting low wages are told they are lazy, chavvy and feckless when they refuse to be part of the so-called ‘jobs factory of Europe’.

    Meanwhile, as wages for people in low-income groups are pegged back, rents rise. Many times I interviewed Britain’s biggest buy-to-let landlord, Fergus Wilson, and many times he told me how well he was doing from eastern European migrants, who filled nearly all his properties and kept his rental income booming. Rents in parts of the country are at catastrophic levels, snatching as much as 60% of pay. Migration is only part of the reason why that is happening. But when George Osborne declares house prices will fall by 18% if Britain quits, he’s giving the game away. He is saying membership of the EU keeps prices and rents much higher than they would otherwise be. Young people struggling with ludicrous rents, take note."

    http://hurryupharry.org/2016/06/20/why-i-am-voting-leave-by-professor-alan-johnson/
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,486
    RobD said:

    Completely OT, but I'm watching footage of the first test flight of that A350. All the people on board are wearing parachutes!! They can't have been that confident, LOL.

    They always do for the first couple of flights. Just in case. There will be an escape hatch at the bottom of the fuselage that they hope not to use. Also it will only be the two pilots onboard, no other crew until the basic tests are all passed.
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046

    IanB2 said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    If PB is anything to go by - there's a significant number of homeless Tory types/others that are very unimpressed with Dave & George. Same elsewhere too.

    Which is utterly bonkers, given that Dave got them the referendum they wanted.

    Hopefully those who have lost their marbles over this will find them again in the next few months.
    Richard, it isn't bonkers to be unhappy with Cameron if you are a Leave Tory. I am grateful that we finally got a referendum on Europe but it's clear from the tone Cameron has taken it wasn't granted out of the goodness of his heart or because he thought there was a worthwhile debate to be had. He probably never thought he'd have to do it as he wasn't expecting to win the GE (even on the night of the election itself).

    He's campaigned robustly, which is his and Osborne's right and duty, but there are a lot of Tories who felt that the Conservative Party was the best vehicle for removing the UK from the EU and, when push came to shove, the Euro-sceptic rhetoric of Cameron, Osborne and others has been exposed as just that, rhetoric.

    There's obviously a lot of anger on both sides of the Tory famly at the moment and much will cool over the next few weeks and months but the scars will still be there for decades to come and I, for one, and going to find it hard to vote for a Tory Party led by a Remainer. I probably will, as I've never voted anything else, but both sides are hurting.
    As a non-Tory I agree that Dave's plan was:

    a) to go into coalition and be 'persuaded' not to have the Referendum, or

    b) to use the Referendum to lance the boil in the Tory Party once and for all and so cast his EU-obsessive wing into outer darkness

    So I can understand why some Tories aren't big Dave fans right now.

    Personally I think both a) (best) and b) (worthwhile) were worth going for....
    Fair enough. What is the effect on the Conservative Party though. Last time I saw any figures the membership was down to about 150,000 (less than half of the number Cameron inherited). Of whom maybe 50%, or even a little more, would prefer to leave the EU, how many of those will stay on next year?.
    It's time for a realignment. A Conservative Party shorn of it's Brexiteers could make common cause with Orange Liberals and the Kendallite Labour.

  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,233

    Off to vote. Without a polling card.........

    I went with my polling card but they never bother to check them. Just ask your name and address...

    I think these days the card is just a "reminder" of when and where to vote.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,835
    Tabman said:

    Will anyone be doing a constituency and/or FPTP analysis? What if, for example FPTP would have won it for one side but the other wins on straight votes?

    The declarations will be (almost all) for council areas, rather than constituencies, the council areas being of dramatically varying sizes. So it won't really be possible to do a FPTP analysis. Why don't we all just agree that FPTP (not that there is a 'post' - the 'post' is what AV would have introduced....) is crap and partly to blame for all the country's political problems.... ?
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024

    Danny565 said:

    Ukip might do well to get someone like Flynn as their leader rather than Farage. There are people who would be tempted to vote for them under a different leader.

    I think Diane James would be their best bet.

    Suzanne Evans is obviously the closest UKIP has to a media darling, but I think she's a bit too posh for UKIP's target audience.
    Suzanne Evans is their best bet. Firstly, her work on the UKIP manifesto was top notch. Secondly, she is a good media performer. Thirdly, she will appeal to a very different demographic to Farage, who is more than a little marmite.
    Both are weak on TV though: 'This Week' for example. Woolfe is more fluid and eloquent.
    What about Paul Nuttal. Could he bring out the northern wwc for out as it looks like the wwc voted to stay in if the Labour private polling is to be believed only 30% of labour voters voted out. No where near enough for a majority
  • El_DaveEl_Dave Posts: 145
    edited June 2016
    Just put £20 on Leave.

    The Ladbrokes clerk who served me doesn't intend to vote! :(
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    PlatoSaid said:

    John_M said:

    Based on the apocalyptic forecasts we've had on here, Cameron was grossly irresponsible to offer a referendum that he could easily have lost, based on the prejudices of the poor, the ignorant and the racists.

    No, he wasn't. He was being democratic. This is an issue which has to be resolved.

    By tonight at 10pm, it will be resolved, although we won't know how for a few hours. Then the world will move on, and politicians and voters will worry about other things (Heathrow, for a starter!). Tempers will cool, it will all be ancient history soon.

    Just like gay marriage, to take one example (an issue which I think actually caused more anger amongst some party members than the referendum has).

    By tonight at 10pm, it will be resolved,

    I doubt it. If anything this referendum has shown up divisions in the country that were previously papered over.

    A 2:1 decision in either direction would resolve it, but I don't think we're going to get that. And the underlying issues are not going away, if anything they are likely to get worse.

    The Brendan O'Neill article is cracking - he says the furies have escaped from Pandora's box.

    http://www.spiked-online.com/newsite/article/why-today-is-a-great-day-for-democracy/18488

    "...We should be glad of all this naked elitism, of this media and political agitation with the fact that the masses have been asked to make a real decision for a change. Because it utterly explodes the myth that they are interested in engaging with us. In recent years, inhabitants of the Westminster bubble and media circles have gone on endlessly about the need to get more Ordinary People into politics, on to focus groups, ‘having their say’.

    There have been ceaseless campaigns to get the vote out, to ‘empower people’. And now we know they didn’t mean a word of it. They like the demos when it’s making small decisions, when it’s nodding along at a staged focus group, when it’s putting an X in a box for parties that are indistinguishable — that is, when it isn’t really behaving as a demos at all. But when we’re asked to decide on something as big as the very nature of our nation, they go into meltdown. Their true dread of the demos comes out. Make no mistake: these people want to keep real politics to themselves, and we are at best occasional decoration, a lick of democratic gloss. And now we know that. And it’s good to know that..."
    That was a great article, enjoyed both the insights and the polemic. Totally took the point about this vote feeling weighty. I paused a good long while in the voting booth.

    I'll add my welcome for both new and returning posters, particularly nice to see AndyJS and JJ (to name but two!) back here.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,462
    Tabman said:

    Will anyone be doing a constituency and/or FPTP analysis? What if, for example FPTP would have won it for one side but the other wins on straight votes?

    THE Tabman? Wow, it's like the Blues Brothers - we're getting the gang back together!
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,162

    felix said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    John_M said:

    nunu said:

    This is it for me and politics.

    We have no one to blame but our selves. I don't blame Dave but won't vote Tory after this even if the margin is 55-45. Unless they have an outer as leader which they won't. And won't vote ukip whilst Nigel Farrage is leader. So have no one to vote for as all the others are europhiles. Oh well.


    I don't think you're alone nunu. There are a fair few politically homeless people now.
    If PB is anything to go by - there's a significant number of homeless Tory types/others that are very unimpressed with Dave & George. Same elsewhere too.
    It ain't and there aren't.
    Thank you for your deep insights into the Conservative Party. Been a member long?
    Lol - I see you're hurting.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,233
    El_Dave said:



    The Ladbrokes clerk who served me doesn't intend to vote! :(

    I hope you gave him a good telling off (in the nicest possible way) :smiley:

  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821

    Tabman said:

    Will anyone be doing a constituency and/or FPTP analysis? What if, for example FPTP would have won it for one side but the other wins on straight votes?

    THE Tabman? Wow, it's like the Blues Brothers - we're getting the gang back together!
    I guess we need to start re-running some our greatest hits from the old days, rather than riffs from the latest album?
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352

    Off to vote. Without a polling card.........

    I never have taken my polling card, not been an issue.

    Will vote after work so will report back then.
  • El_DaveEl_Dave Posts: 145
    GIN1138 said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Well I voted LEAVE around 30 minutes ago.

    Anecdote alert:

    Polling station was having a "lull" but one of the ladies handing out ballot papers said it had been the busiest she's ever seen it (and she's been doing this since the 1970 general election)

    Where are you?
    I'm in eastern England. LEAVE country, lol! :smiley:

    Mind you, we heard these reports about how big the turnout would be for last years general election and in the end it was nothing special.

    I do think this time it will be a very big turnout this time though....
    I voted in a safe Labour ward in Reading earlier. There was briefly a 4 man queue, and they said they'd been quite busy.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Looking forward to seeing a lot less of these

    Simon Richards Retweeted
    Louise Mensch ‏@LouiseMensch · 4h4 hours ago

    Remain's Matthew Parris says the regions are stupid and the "Metropolitan elite" really does know best [sic] #EURef

  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    GIN1138 said:

    Off to vote. Without a polling card.........

    I went with my polling card but they never bother to check them. Just ask your name and address...

    I think these days the card is just a "reminder" of when and where to vote.

    When I voted, pretty much everyone in the queue (!) had a voting card. Except me, as mine was lost in the post.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    PlatoSaid said:

    John_M said:

    I suppose we can take solace that Samantha's Cameron's daughter will be able to get that apprenticeship now.

    :lol:
    I didn't know that Sothebys had apprenticeships in PR.
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    Danny565 said:

    Currently hearing the sound of a megaphone urging me to "vote leave to take back our laws from Brussels"

    yes I heard that too, what part of the Port are you in?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,719
    Right off to vote now - a long trek for me from Coventry to east London and back(!), but why not?

    Why not? :)
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,162

    Absolutely scorching hot weather here in my largest village in the North west. Just been to vote and never seen anything like it, they were queuing outside. Normally, it's just one man and his dog. Lots of "oldies."

    A long term councillor once told me that the oldies tended to vote before 2pm. After that it was difficult to get them away from the afternoon tv and soaps.
    Presumably you've voted already then. :)
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    currystar said:

    John_M said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    If PB is anything to go by - there's a significant number of homeless Tory types/others that are very unimpressed with Dave & George. Same elsewhere too.

    Which is utterly bonkers, given that Dave got them the referendum they wanted.

    Hopefully those who have lost their marbles over this will find them again in the next few months.
    Richard, you really are going to have to learn that calling people racists, idiots and crazies will not endear you to your target.

    I didn't want a referendum - we have bigger fish to fry. I'm glad I got one, but I'll give Cameron no credit for it - it was an act of pure political calculation in order to win an election.

    He's given us a referendum and then told us there is only one answer, and done so in a way that has lost his credibility.
    In other words you disagree with Cameron's position in the referendum (and, I suspect, resent his effectiveness). Fair enough. I disagree with Michael Gove on this. But I'm not going to lay into him, say he's 'lost all credibility', let alone go into a huff if he remains in a senior position or even becomes PM. Sane people can disagree on the balance of arguments in a complex issue like this which has multiple facets.
    Great post, Im afraid all the Cameron haters are in disbelief at the polls. They were so looking forward to a Cameron slagging fest tomorrow.
    If there is a big 10% or more lead for Remain Cameron would have the power to purge all the eurosceptics and assorted right wing types and position the Tories as the real sensible centre party. Not saying he would, but he could. And if he did, it would make me a lot more likely to vote Tory at the next election.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Two observations.

    Five or six people in central London wearing 'IN' stickers - the virtue signallers choice undoubtedly. There must be a big shy leave vote.

    Storms have wreaked havoc on suburban services into the capital. It really is bad. If I left after seven, I'd be worried about getting home in time to vote.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    edited June 2016
    It looks like out won the right wing vote with 60% Tories and 96% ukip voting out but only 30% labour.
    Who could hold on to what they got AND get 40% Labour vote as well? Hmmm seems like a tough coalition to win a referundum. I think it was always a tough ask for the right if the Tory party to win enough wwc for a win, the right wing I think will vote out again even if their is a left wing leader but to get that 40% Labour vote you need an old labour type figure leading leave but for the modern day that can appeal to the wwc not a metropolitan type. That's why Nuttal as leader of ukip would be a good idea.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,897

    Right off to vote now - a long trek for me from Coventry to east London and back(!), but why not?

    Why not? :)

    Bon voyage! Train, undoubtedly? :D
  • LadyBucketLadyBucket Posts: 590

    Danny565 said:

    Ukip might do well to get someone like Flynn as their leader rather than Farage. There are people who would be tempted to vote for them under a different leader.

    I think Diane James would be their best bet.

    Suzanne Evans is obviously the closest UKIP has to a media darling, but I think she's a bit too posh for UKIP's target audience.
    Suzanne Evans is their best bet. Firstly, her work on the UKIP manifesto was top notch. Secondly, she is a good media performer. Thirdly, she will appeal to a very different demographic to Farage, who is more than a little marmite.
    Both are weak on TV though: 'This Week' for example. Woolfe is more fluid and eloquent.
    Diane James is far too scratchy and tetchy sometimes. A female version of Nigel Farage. Steve Woolfe would be a good choice, he has a nice manner about him and lots of experience of working in the city.

  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    pinkrose said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    If PB is anything to go by - there's a significant number of homeless Tory types/others that are very unimpressed with Dave & George. Same elsewhere too.

    Which is utterly bonkers, given that Dave got them the referendum they wanted.

    Hopefully those who have lost their marbles over this will find them again in the next few months.
    What?! Given DC & GO have turned out to be treacherous turncoats, never! Those of us that want proper small gov/low tax policies are stuck with social democrats pretending to be Tory.
    How can you have small gov and low tax policies with an economy increasingly reliant on low skilled, low waged expansive insecure labour market that needs wages to be topped up by housing benefit and tax credits just to survive.


    How can you have small gov and low tax policies with an ageing society and a publicly funded healthcare system open to all comers, British citizens, EU, non EU, its not possible!
    I don't think you can. But wealthy people can rack up their wealth unloading the costs onto the taxpayer in such a scenario. Perhaps that is where we are. It might even be why we still after several years of growth running a £70 billion annual deficit.
  • El_DaveEl_Dave Posts: 145
    edited June 2016
    GIN1138 said:

    El_Dave said:



    The Ladbrokes clerk who served me doesn't intend to vote! :(

    I hope you gave him a good telling off (in the nicest possible way) :smiley:

    He went into a bit of a rant, so I just said 'fair enough'. :)
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,460

    Looking forward to seeing a lot less of these

    Tweets from Louise Mensch? She'll just move on to a barrage of NeverTrump messages.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,897
    El_Dave said:

    GIN1138 said:

    El_Dave said:



    The Ladbrokes clerk who served me doesn't intend to vote! :(

    I hope you gave him a good telling off (in the nicest possible way) :smiley:

    He went into a bit of a rant, so I just said 'fair enough'. :)
    I presume you were behind the safety of glass ;)
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046
    IanB2 said:

    Tabman said:

    Will anyone be doing a constituency and/or FPTP analysis? What if, for example FPTP would have won it for one side but the other wins on straight votes?

    The declarations will be (almost all) for council areas, rather than constituencies, the council areas being of dramatically varying sizes. So it won't really be possible to do a FPTP analysis. Why don't we all just agree that FPTP (not that there is a 'post' - the 'post' is what AV would have introduced....) is crap and partly to blame for all the country's political problems.... ?
    that's kind of the point ...

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,023

    Looking forward to seeing a lot less of these

    Simon Richards Retweeted
    Louise Mensch ‏@LouiseMensch · 4h4 hours ago

    Remain's Matthew Parris says the regions are stupid and the "Metropolitan elite" really does know best [sic] #EURef

    The funny bit is, Louise is about as Metropolitan elite as they come.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,114

    PlatoSaid said:

    John_M said:

    I suppose we can take solace that Samantha's Cameron's daughter will be able to get that apprenticeship now.

    :lol:
    I didn't know that Sothebys had apprenticeships in PR.
    One of the great things about the two big auction houses is, as far as I know, most interns start out as porters. Aristocracy serving us common dealers with a bit of dosh to spare. 'Twas ever thus...
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    kle4 said:

    Jobabob said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Jeremy Paxman's EU referendum debate gets 1.6m viewers' vote.
    https://t.co/YxyXfkdTQO https://t.co/Z8Gvrnk1v2

    Twice this week the schedulers have put EU debates on at the same time as the football.

    Which do they think most people would prefer to watch?
    Someone who wanted to watch the debate would not be put off by the football being on at the same time, it makes no difference.

    The dedicated watch both, and follow the cricket online while posting on PB as well.
    It is physically impossible to 'watch' both – I tried it. You end up thinking that Ivan Perisic skewered Boris Johnson while Ruth Davidson scored from 20 yards for Croatia. Then you wonder how Remain managed to do so well when Luka Modric failed to turn up for the debate.
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046

    Tabman said:

    Will anyone be doing a constituency and/or FPTP analysis? What if, for example FPTP would have won it for one side but the other wins on straight votes?

    THE Tabman? Wow, it's like the Blues Brothers - we're getting the gang back together!
    I am indeed he 8-)

    I only come out for special occasions now.

  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    Looking forward to seeing a lot less of these

    Tweets from Louise Mensch? She'll just move on to a barrage of NeverTrump messages.
    One of the best decisions I've ever made was to leave Twitter well alone. I was very enthusiastic when it first came along.

    I don't begrudge those that enjoy it, but for me it's the living embodiment of what 'race to the bottom' actually looks like in practice.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,835
    Tabman said:

    IanB2 said:

    Tabman said:

    Will anyone be doing a constituency and/or FPTP analysis? What if, for example FPTP would have won it for one side but the other wins on straight votes?

    The declarations will be (almost all) for council areas, rather than constituencies, the council areas being of dramatically varying sizes. So it won't really be possible to do a FPTP analysis. Why don't we all just agree that FPTP (not that there is a 'post' - the 'post' is what AV would have introduced....) is crap and partly to blame for all the country's political problems.... ?
    that's kind of the point ...

    Sorry for being dim. It's so rare that posters agree with each other in here that I didn't recognise it when it happened...
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Some apposite words from the Pink Panther movie:

    "Meglio stasera, che domani o mai
    Domani chi lo sa, quel che sarà?"
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    Jobabob said:

    kle4 said:

    Jobabob said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Jeremy Paxman's EU referendum debate gets 1.6m viewers' vote.
    https://t.co/YxyXfkdTQO https://t.co/Z8Gvrnk1v2

    Twice this week the schedulers have put EU debates on at the same time as the football.

    Which do they think most people would prefer to watch?
    Someone who wanted to watch the debate would not be put off by the football being on at the same time, it makes no difference.

    The dedicated watch both, and follow the cricket online while posting on PB as well.
    It is physically impossible to 'watch' both – I tried it. You end up thinking that Ivan Perisic skewered Boris Johnson while Ruth Davidson scored from 20 yards for Croatia. Then you wonder how Remain managed to do so well when Luka Modric failed to turn up for the debate.
    lol, bravo sir :)
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,146
    rcs1000 said:

    Looking forward to seeing a lot less of these

    Simon Richards Retweeted
    Louise Mensch ‏@LouiseMensch · 4h4 hours ago

    Remain's Matthew Parris says the regions are stupid and the "Metropolitan elite" really does know best [sic] #EURef

    The funny bit is, Louise is about as Metropolitan elite as they come.
    No wonder she ditched Corby.
  • El_DaveEl_Dave Posts: 145
    polargael said:

    2/2 Full disclosure: I held my nose and reluctantly voted Leave this morning, with a heavy heart.

    I voted Leave with a smile.

  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,114
    pinkrose said:

    WOW! This is a great read and the case those on the Left should've made for Leave.

    This is spot on by the Guardian’s – money expert, Patrick Collinson, explaining why he is voting Leave:

    "I know a painter/decorator who has not been able to raise his wages for 15 years. There’s always someone else, he says, willing to work for less. A driver who arrived from Turkey 18 years ago, who says the bus companies used to pay more than £12 an hour, but can now pay £10 or less because they have so many takers (and yes, the irony is noted). A care-home cleaner in a rundown seaside town who reckons her hopes of ever getting more than the minimum wage are zero. Each blames an influx of workers from the EU. Each of them are voting out. Tell them the EU protects workers’ rights and they just laugh.

    When companies launch recruitment drives in eastern Europe they blame skills shortages in Britain. Really? If a big business wants to hire, say, drivers on £25 an hour, it will find it can do so easily; what they really mean is that they can’t find people willing to work for £10 an hour or less, with antisocial hours to boot. Meanwhile, workers here rejecting low wages are told they are lazy, chavvy and feckless when they refuse to be part of the so-called ‘jobs factory of Europe’.

    Meanwhile, as wages for people in low-income groups are pegged back, rents rise. Many times I interviewed Britain’s biggest buy-to-let landlord, Fergus Wilson, and many times he told me how well he was doing from eastern European migrants, who filled nearly all his properties and kept his rental income booming. Rents in parts of the country are at catastrophic levels, snatching as much as 60% of pay. Migration is only part of the reason why that is happening. But when George Osborne declares house prices will fall by 18% if Britain quits, he’s giving the game away. He is saying membership of the EU keeps prices and rents much higher than they would otherwise be. Young people struggling with ludicrous rents, take note."

    http://hurryupharry.org/2016/06/20/why-i-am-voting-leave-by-professor-alan-johnson/

    My poorest and most lefty mates are all enthusiastic Remainiacs. Values trumps economics.

    The next election is going to be an absolute nightmare to predict.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,994

    Welcome to all the old hands returning and especially to the lurkers delurking. Great to have your take on this not-many-times-in-a-lifetime event.

    Absolutely. It's great to have more posters posting. Please all stay after the dust has settled.

    If only we could have a few more retweeters on PB...
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,162
    rcs1000 said:

    Looking forward to seeing a lot less of these

    Simon Richards Retweeted
    Louise Mensch ‏@LouiseMensch · 4h4 hours ago

    Remain's Matthew Parris says the regions are stupid and the "Metropolitan elite" really does know best [sic] #EURef

    The funny bit is, Louise is about as Metropolitan elite as they come.
    Quite - dumped her seat to Labour [Corby] - to spend all her days and nights tweeting - and now she's a fully fledged t***.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Tabman said:

    IanB2 said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    If PB is anything to go by - there's a significant number of homeless Tory types/others that are very unimpressed with Dave & George. Same elsewhere too.

    Which is utterly bonkers, given that Dave got them the referendum they wanted.

    Hopefully those who have lost their marbles over this will find them again in the next few months.
    Richard, it isn't bonkers to be unhappy with Cameron if you are a Leave Tory. I am grateful that we finally got a referendum on Europe but it's clear from the tone Cameron has taken it wasn't granted out of the goodness of his heart or because he thought there was a worthwhile debate to be had. He probably never thought he'd have to do it as he wasn't expecting to win the GE (even on the night of the election itself).

    He's campaigned robustly, which is his and Osborne's right and duty, but there are a lot of Tories who felt that the Conservative Party was the best vehicle for removing the UK from the EU and, when push came to shove, the Euro-sceptic rhetoric of Cameron, Osborne and others has been exposed as just that, rhetoric.

    There's obviously a lot of anger on both sides of the Tory famly at the moment and much will cool over the next few weeks and months but the scars will still be there for decades to come and I, for one, and going to find it hard to vote for a Tory Party led by a Remainer. I probably will, as I've never voted anything else, but both sides are hurting.
    As a non-Tory I agree that Dave's plan was:

    a) to go into coalition and be 'persuaded' not to have the Referendum, or

    b) to use the Referendum to lance the boil in the Tory Party once and for all and so cast his EU-obsessive wing into outer darkness

    So I can understand why some Tories aren't big Dave fans right now.

    Personally I think both a) (best) and b) (worthwhile) were worth going for....
    Fair enough. What is the effect on the Conservative Party though. Last time I saw any figures the membership was down to about 150,000 (less than half of the number Cameron inherited). Of whom maybe 50%, or even a little more, would prefer to leave the EU, how many of those will stay on next year?.
    It's time for a realignment. A Conservative Party shorn of it's Brexiteers could make common cause with Orange Liberals and the Kendallite Labour.

    Do you think that would amount to a mass movement party? Or even a bigger party? Where would the money come from?

    It might work, but I rather suspect it would be the SDP MkII.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    rcs1000 said:

    Looking forward to seeing a lot less of these

    Simon Richards Retweeted
    Louise Mensch ‏@LouiseMensch · 4h4 hours ago

    Remain's Matthew Parris says the regions are stupid and the "Metropolitan elite" really does know best [sic] #EURef

    The funny bit is, Louise is about as Metropolitan elite as they come.
    If you refer to Axis II in DSM IV, it's not hard to identify Louise's personality disorder.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    taffys said:

    Two observations.

    Five or six people in central London wearing 'IN' stickers - the virtue signallers choice undoubtedly. There must be a big shy leave vote.

    Storms have wreaked havoc on suburban services into the capital. It really is bad. If I left after seven, I'd be worried about getting home in time to vote.

    Yes no service between Wimbledon and parsons green, earlier today because of flooding.
  • El_DaveEl_Dave Posts: 145
    RobD said:

    El_Dave said:

    GIN1138 said:

    El_Dave said:



    The Ladbrokes clerk who served me doesn't intend to vote! :(

    I hope you gave him a good telling off (in the nicest possible way) :smiley:

    He went into a bit of a rant, so I just said 'fair enough'. :)
    I presume you were behind the safety of glass ;)
    NO! It was an open counter! And I'd initiated the conversation.

    Errors all round.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    edited June 2016
    El_Dave said:

    polargael said:

    2/2 Full disclosure: I held my nose and reluctantly voted Leave this morning, with a heavy heart.

    I voted Leave with a smile.

    I'd been looking forward to putting that X in the box all flippin' week.

    #saddo
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    pinkrose said:

    WOW! This is a great read and the case those on the Left should've made for Leave.

    This is spot on by the Guardian’s – money expert, Patrick Collinson, explaining why he is voting Leave:

    "I know a painter/decorator who has not been able to raise his wages for 15 years. There’s always someone else, he says, willing to work for less. A driver who arrived from Turkey 18 years ago, who says the bus companies used to pay more than £12 an hour, but can now pay £10 or less because they have so many takers (and yes, the irony is noted). A care-home cleaner in a rundown seaside town who reckons her hopes of ever getting more than the minimum wage are zero. Each blames an influx of workers from the EU. Each of them are voting out. Tell them the EU protects workers’ rights and they just laugh.

    When companies launch recruitment drives in eastern Europe they blame skills shortages in Britain. Really? If a big business wants to hire, say, drivers on £25 an hour, it will find it can do so easily; what they really mean is that they can’t find people willing to work for £10 an hour or less, with antisocial hours to boot. Meanwhile, workers here rejecting low wages are told they are lazy, chavvy and feckless when they refuse to be part of the so-called ‘jobs factory of Europe’.

    Meanwhile, as wages for people in low-income groups are pegged back, rents rise. Many times I interviewed Britain’s biggest buy-to-let landlord, Fergus Wilson, and many times he told me how well he was doing from eastern European migrants, who filled nearly all his properties and kept his rental income booming. Rents in parts of the country are at catastrophic levels, snatching as much as 60% of pay. Migration is only part of the reason why that is happening. But when George Osborne declares house prices will fall by 18% if Britain quits, he’s giving the game away. He is saying membership of the EU keeps prices and rents much higher than they would otherwise be. Young people struggling with ludicrous rents, take note."

    http://hurryupharry.org/2016/06/20/why-i-am-voting-leave-by-professor-alan-johnson/

    I am very sympathetic. The problem is, those people have no-one standing up for them. The remain establishment aren't interested, while the likes of Johnson, Gove and probably Farage want to get out of the EU because it fetters capitalism too much.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,114
    SeanT said:

    Some investment banks and hedge funds have commissioned exit polls during the day today.

    Sterlind has strengthened 1.1% so far today.

    The FTSE 100 is up 1.15% so far today.

    Ergo the vote is for REMAIN.

    Talking of which, here's my experience

    I voted in a leafy corner of Primrose Hill.

    On the way out I was exit polled - yes! - by a pretty girl. I had a quick peek at her clipboard; it showed REMAIN outnumbering LEAVE by about four or five to one. Not unexpected in that neck of the woods. She said they'd been "quite busy", but she was barely 18 so possibly had nothing to judge it by.

    Then on the way out I was interviewed by German radio, and I explained to the good people of Germany why I voted the way I did.

    For the record, I summoned blood, stiffened sinews, and voted LEAVE, in full and stoical expectation of defeat. But also in happy anticipation of being able to blame quisling, treacherous REMAINIANS for every awful thing the EU does for the next 15 years.

    And we will blame them. Oh yes, we will.
    Thank the Lord for that! I've been about as worried about your bottling it as the entire result.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,989

    RobD said:

    I've yet to vote BTW, but hope to do so this afternoon. Weather doesn't look toi great in London though. Fine for the moment up in the Midlands.

    http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

    I wouldn't bother going through all that hassle to vote. One vote won't make a difference. Honest
    I gave The Sun their "Be LEAVE" headline, and you're expecting me NOT to vote???

    :open_mouth:

    BTW my presentation was postponed till next week, thankfully :)
    I'm trying to make sure you don't have to visit Essex.

    I've taken an elderly voter to the voting station, so he could vote Leave, he was so happy to have voted Leave.

    Democracy is great.
    Do you love democracy, TSE? What are your thoughts on Republican governments?

    :D:D
    Apart from the fact I'd be a terrible Puritan, I'd be a Roundhead, not a Cavalier
    I've always thought that the best position on the Civil War was to be a parliamentarian in the first civil war and a royalist in the second once the hardliners took over. I like to think I'd have got purged by Pride! :)
    Yes, not actually that many Republicans until before then. I'd have been purged with the Rump I think
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366
    edited June 2016
    I think for some people this is a visceral rather than a cerebral vote, and I also suspect many GE votes are.

    On one hand, the EU aims to spread harmony and bring us together in an economic, political and social paradise. It has its faults, but they can be mended.

    On the other, you can take the boy out of Boston but ... It's a club for posh people who assume they know best, so it will never change.

    So "Je suis football hooligan". F*ck off Europe, I've voted Leave.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,114
    Tabman said:

    IanB2 said:

    Tabman said:

    Will anyone be doing a constituency and/or FPTP analysis? What if, for example FPTP would have won it for one side but the other wins on straight votes?

    The declarations will be (almost all) for council areas, rather than constituencies, the council areas being of dramatically varying sizes. So it won't really be possible to do a FPTP analysis. Why don't we all just agree that FPTP (not that there is a 'post' - the 'post' is what AV would have introduced....) is crap and partly to blame for all the country's political problems.... ?
    that's kind of the point ...

    If we get a decent understanding of splits per party I can plug it into my 2015 results spreadsheet. Similarly if we get breakdown by region, I could apply that instead of party ID.
  • El_DaveEl_Dave Posts: 145
    @RobD
    Did you vote in the end? You were considering abstaining the other day.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    SeanT said:

    Some investment banks and hedge funds have commissioned exit polls during the day today.

    Sterlind has strengthened 1.1% so far today.

    The FTSE 100 is up 1.15% so far today.

    Ergo the vote is for REMAIN.

    Talking of which, here's my experience

    I voted in a leafy corner of Primrose Hill.

    On the way out I was exit polled - yes! - by a pretty girl. I had a quick peek at her clipboard; it showed REMAIN outnumbering LEAVE by about four or five to one. Not unexpected in that neck of the woods. She said they'd been "quite busy", but she was barely 18 so possibly had nothing to judge it by.

    Then on the way out I was interviewed by German radio, and I explained to the good people of Germany why I voted the way I did.

    For the record, I summoned blood, stiffened sinews, and voted LEAVE, in full and stoical expectation of defeat. But also in happy anticipation of being able to blame quisling, treacherous REMAINIANS for every awful thing the EU does for the next 15 years.

    And we will blame them. Oh yes, we will.
    Chapeau old chap. I owe you an apology. I confidently predicted to m'daughter (who is a huge fan of your work) that you would buckle under the peer pressure. So sorry for doubting your intestinal fortitude.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,897
    El_Dave said:

    @RobD
    Did you vote in the end? You were considering abstaining the other day.

    Yeah, dropped my postal ballot off an hour or so ago.
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046

    Welcome to all the old hands returning and especially to the lurkers delurking. Great to have your take on this not-many-times-in-a-lifetime event.

    Absolutely. It's great to have more posters posting. Please all stay after the dust has settled.

    If only we could have a few more retweeters on PB...
    Part of the reason I rarely come here is the popularity of the site. When I first started posting back in 2004 (yes, really!) there were so few posters it was very easy to keep up with a thread and get a conversation flowing. It's almost impossible now with so many comments to get through.

  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    And we will blame them. Oh yes, we will.

    German Radio: ''And now let's get the views of the typical, middle of the road, joe bloggs ex drug addict hooker loving boozed up thriller writer...."
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,800

    Off to vote. Without a polling card.........

    I never have taken my polling card, not been an issue.

    Will vote after work so will report back then.
    I always find it strange how open to abuse the whole system is!

    Do a bit of canvassing, spot how many 'never bother voting' types you come across, note down their name and address and get an activist to vote on their behalf. Simples.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    However divided our country is-it isn't America. Jheez.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,897
    taffys said:

    And we will blame them. Oh yes, we will.

    German Radio: ''And now let's get the views of the typical, middle of the road, joe bloggs ex drug addict hooker loving boozed up thriller writer...."

    Would have been the absolute cherry on top if he were a peer of the realm :D
  • El_DaveEl_Dave Posts: 145

    Right off to vote now - a long trek for me from Coventry to east London and back(!), but why not?

    Why not? :)

    10/10 for commitment. No points for planning though!
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    SeanT said:

    Some investment banks and hedge funds have commissioned exit polls during the day today.

    Sterlind has strengthened 1.1% so far today.

    The FTSE 100 is up 1.15% so far today.

    Ergo the vote is for REMAIN.

    Talking of which, here's my experience

    I voted in a leafy corner of Primrose Hill.

    On the way out I was exit polled - yes! - by a pretty girl. I had a quick peek at her clipboard; it showed REMAIN outnumbering LEAVE by about four or five to one. Not unexpected in that neck of the woods. She said they'd been "quite busy", but she was barely 18 so possibly had nothing to judge it by.

    Then on the way out I was interviewed by German radio, and I explained to the good people of Germany why I voted the way I did.

    For the record, I summoned blood, stiffened sinews, and voted LEAVE, in full and stoical expectation of defeat. But also in happy anticipation of being able to blame quisling, treacherous REMAINIANS for every awful thing the EU does for the next 15 years.

    And we will blame them. Oh yes, we will.
    I certainly will.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,994
    "I had a quick peek at her clipboard"

    Sean, you just can't help yourself, can you?

    Mind, I've never heard it called that before.
  • El_DaveEl_Dave Posts: 145
    RobD said:

    El_Dave said:

    @RobD
    Did you vote in the end? You were considering abstaining the other day.

    Yeah, dropped my postal ballot off an hour or so ago.
    Good Egg. :)

  • IcarusIcarus Posts: 993
    Tabman said:

    Welcome to all the old hands returning and especially to the lurkers delurking. Great to have your take on this not-many-times-in-a-lifetime event.

    Absolutely. It's great to have more posters posting. Please all stay after the dust has settled.

    If only we could have a few more retweeters on PB...
    Part of the reason I rarely come here is the popularity of the site. When I first started posting back in 2004 (yes, really!) there were so few posters it was very easy to keep up with a thread and get a conversation flowing. It's almost impossible now with so many comments to get through.

    Good to see you still about Tabbers - I cant believe that Remain is a certainty - I have booked a Ryanair flight to Spain on Saturday to see my European family in Granada.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,068
    RobD said:

    El_Dave said:

    @RobD
    Did you vote in the end? You were considering abstaining the other day.

    Yeah, dropped my postal ballot off an hour or so ago.
    Be-leaver or a fellow quisling ?
  • JessieShamusJessieShamus Posts: 70
    edited June 2016
    Tabman said:


    Part of the reason I rarely come here is the popularity of the site. When I first started posting back in 2004 (yes, really!) there were so few posters it was very easy to keep up with a thread and get a conversation flowing. It's almost impossible now with so many comments to get through.

    Quite, also the structure is very clunky. Replies require a quote.

    Threads are much easier to follow with replies under a single thread. Most sites do it, like Guido. Seems little has changed here since 2004. Even Roger is still posting guff.

    The reason I rarely come back is because most here have closed minds.

    Good to see there isnt so much Guardian type censorship these days. But still censorship kills debate and it takes a long time to recover.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Off to vote. Without a polling card.........

    Enjoy it, it can't be long before everyone needs to take about 3 photo IDs in order to vote. You can't even buy a train ticket in the United States without one.
  • GravitationGravitation Posts: 287
    taffys said:

    And we will blame them. Oh yes, we will.

    German Radio: ''And now let's get the views of the typical, middle of the road, joe bloggs ex drug addict hooker loving boozed up thriller writer...."

    A cross section of the population all in one person!
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Michael Fallon pays damages to imam at centre of Sadiq Khan storm

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/23/michael-fallon-damages-imam-suliman-gani-sadiq-khan
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,562
    just voted in notts. no sign of exit pollsters. steady flow but no sign of a queue.
  • richardv9richardv9 Posts: 2
    AndyJS said:

    Off to vote. Without a polling card.........

    Enjoy it, it can't be long before everyone needs to take about 3 photo IDs in order to vote. You can't even buy a train ticket in the United States without one.
    Easier to buy a gun I suppose ;)
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,897
    Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:

    El_Dave said:

    @RobD
    Did you vote in the end? You were considering abstaining the other day.

    Yeah, dropped my postal ballot off an hour or so ago.
    Be-leaver or a fellow quisling ?
    I was a touch TPD-ish and voted leave.
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046
    Icarus said:

    Tabman said:

    Welcome to all the old hands returning and especially to the lurkers delurking. Great to have your take on this not-many-times-in-a-lifetime event.

    Absolutely. It's great to have more posters posting. Please all stay after the dust has settled.

    If only we could have a few more retweeters on PB...
    Part of the reason I rarely come here is the popularity of the site. When I first started posting back in 2004 (yes, really!) there were so few posters it was very easy to keep up with a thread and get a conversation flowing. It's almost impossible now with so many comments to get through.

    Good to see you still about Tabbers - I cant believe that Remain is a certainty - I have booked a Ryanair flight to Spain on Saturday to see my European family in Granada.
    Likewise you, Sir! Will you be watching the triumph of the Red Rose on Saturday?

    I will struggle to believe it until I've seen it too - my natural pessimism still thinks its close. And I've investigated Irish passports for the kids via Mrs T's heritage.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,908
    SeanT said:

    Some investment banks and hedge funds have commissioned exit polls during the day today.

    Sterlind has strengthened 1.1% so far today.

    The FTSE 100 is up 1.15% so far today.

    Ergo the vote is for REMAIN.

    Talking of which, here's my experience

    I voted in a leafy corner of Primrose Hill.

    On the way out I was exit polled - yes! - by a pretty girl. I had a quick peek at her clipboard; it showed REMAIN outnumbering LEAVE by about four or five to one. Not unexpected in that neck of the woods. She said they'd been "quite busy", but she was barely 18 so possibly had nothing to judge it by.

    Then on the way out I was interviewed by German radio, and I explained to the good people of Germany why I voted the way I did.

    For the record, I summoned blood, stiffened sinews, and voted LEAVE, in full and stoical expectation of defeat. But also in happy anticipation of being able to blame quisling, treacherous REMAINIANS for every awful thing the EU does for the next 15 years.

    And we will blame them. Oh yes, we will.
    So much easier
    taffys said:

    Two observations.

    Five or six people in central London wearing 'IN' stickers - the virtue signallers choice undoubtedly. There must be a big shy leave vote.

    Storms have wreaked havoc on suburban services into the capital. It really is bad. If I left after seven, I'd be worried about getting home in time to vote.

    Two annoyances in the use of the English language on this site.
    1. Virtue Signalling - this seems a way of saying that you disagree with someone but you want to deprive them of their right to believe whatever it is they are advocating. You are indicating that they are only saying or doing what they are to gain kudos amongst their peers.
    2. Use of the 'word' 'waycist'. It's as though the user condones racism. Admittedly it is over used, as are references to Hitler.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    Apparently I'm an 'old school Trot' based on Guido's 'Which Britexiteer are you'. Colour me utterly surprised. I blame the quiz for not including 'porridge' as a breakfast option.
  • mwjfrome17mwjfrome17 Posts: 158
    My experience today. Have an hours daily tube journey to Parsons Green SW6 from Walthamstow. Been there and back already. Have seen many hundreds of people wearing a Vote Remain or Im In sticker, but not a single one for leave. Just voted at about the same time as I did in the London Mayoral election. Today roughly half the names in my (small) street had a mark by them. In May I was the only one.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,562
    Re: the wild rumours regarding pencils and Mi5. My polling station had a pen and a pencil available.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,245
    John_M said:

    I suppose we can take solace that Samantha's Cameron's daughter will be able to get that apprenticeship now.

    Is Samantha Cameron's daughter planning to become a carpenter or electrician?
  • Let's assume Remain win. What we will have seen is that you can choose your 'demos' with impunity. Those dreadful plebs can be happily rendered politically impotent while the better off entrench their position. The establishment's 'people' is the establishment of other countries not the plebs of their own. This strikes me as very dangerous. Many lefties here on PB berate the evil Tories because they only look after their own interests in an 'I'm alright Jack' sort of way. 'I'm alright Jack' is now the UK's official and acceptable middle ground. We're not in this together. We're not really a nation. We're millions of individuals. Fuck you sunshine.

    The future therefore holds a lot of nastiness. When the desperate are totally ignored and disenfranchised they resort to other routes. Jo Cox's death may be a horrible portent of things to come. I hope to God it's not.
This discussion has been closed.