I think you are tilting at windmills: very noble, brings a tear to the eye, garners "hear hears" from all and sundry, but at the end of the day deeply misplaced.
So leaving the EU is going to be one in the eye for, er, the Westminster Clique? You sound like Owen Jones. Only with less logic. What on earth is leaving the EU going to do to thwart the Westminster clique? If anything it would be concentrating the power in an even smaller elite. You say how MPs are dreadful, disconnected, starstruck, etc, etc and then....you want to give them total power over our lives.
Love it or hate it, if you think that our MPs are the problem, then I would have thought the more power devolved to the EU the better.
Sorry, Charles, it all sounded very noble and noblesse obligey, and well done you for railing against this huge, perceived injustice, but an asinine post nevertheless.
Never miss a chance to insult someone else, do you?
The point is that our MPs can be sacked if we don't like what they are doing. Taking them out of the EU gives them nowhere to hide. It also makes the point that the voters are in charge.
Only when it's warranted.
Leaving the EU will remind our MPs that they can be sacked because they can't say: it was the EU wot made me do it. That it?
I think that most of the electorate is smarter than you give them credit for, and are always in charge. They after all have to date voted for Parties that have wanted to remain in the EU, while a minority voted for a Party that wanted to Leave the EU.
Still not sure about the problem with One Nation Conservatism you posted about.
Apple is apparently replacing the 3.5mm headphone jack on their phones with the Lightning connector. Yet another user-unfriendly, messy and cash-grabbing move by Apple.
Oh Josias, how I've missed your Apple posts. Go on, talk railways to me .
Unfortunately (*), I cannot think of a way of combining the two...
But it's still true: Apple is IMO the most evil large company in the tech sector. And that's saying summat.
(*) Or fortunately for posters
Easy: Class 31/0 were known as "Toffee Apples" due to their unique "Red Circle" multiple working equipment, which was incompatible with that on any other type of locomotive.
You are, of course, correct. Nice locos, those 31's, at least after they were re-engined.
I daresay we could also have had LNER Apple Green. But that's LNER rubbish ...
As chance would have it, a lot of my team live in rural Essex. The trains were in chaos this morning with the result that they could not get in and have had to work from home.
I expect that voting in the referendum will now actually be easier for such voters rather than harder, because they won't have to do it after the commute home.
If I were guessing, I'd guess that cohort of voters is likely to be more Remain-friendly than the non-commuters in the area but more Leave-friendly than the typical City workers.
Uttlesford, Chelmsford and Colchester are likely to be the best areas for Remain in Essex.
The Footsie seems to be falling, so either IMO the traders have realised that a remain victory is not nailed on, or their exit polls have swung towards leave.
I'm officially calling this referendum for Remain or Leave, no one else is going to win
You can't rule out the exact dead heat
If it's a dead heat, Remain wins.
If it's a dead heat they'll call for a recount.
I read elsewhere that there's no legal basis for a national recount
There are counting agents for both sides.
Surely they could ask for a recount. But there might be a time limit and only the last counting district would know it is a draw - Western Isles?
As I understand it the normal rules providing for local recounts don't apply. So it doesn't matter how close the result might be in Council X, the results are sent off to be added to the national count.
I am not sure whether there are any provisions for a national re-count or not - the chances of a VERY close result are of course vanishingly small. But if it did come down to a few thousand votes my instinct is that, whatever the rules may or may not provide for, the pressure for some sort of recount process would be very hard to resist.
Mr. M, if we Leave, there won't be any more bricks. Wattle and daub only.
That might be true. But I could have been on-trend by having my extension built by Vietnamese and/or Laotian brickies rather than oh-so-last-season Romanians or Poles.
The Footsie seems to be falling, so either IMO the traders have realised that a remain victory is not nailed on, or their exit polls have swung towards leave.
Or they're pocketing profits from the past few days and sitting it out till later tonight?
The Footsie seems to be falling, so either IMO the traders have realised that a remain victory is not nailed on, or their exit polls have swung towards leave.
They've noted that their exit poll headed "National" was actually entirely from ........ Primrose Hill
Birmingham also surprises me with 48-52 for Leave.
I think leave relying on cities like Birmingham should have rang alarm bells. A campaign based 80% on immigration is not going to win cities like Birmingham, Bradford which was also predicted to be narrowly leave. Its not that these places don't want controlled immigration they do, they are just not going to vote for a side that bangs on about that to the detriment of everything elese.
Another great post by you. In the final analysis, assuming a Remain victory, it will be the overplaying of the immigration card, and the idiocy of the hateful poster campaign that will be seen (rightly or wrongly) as the turning point. To think some on here defended it. It was a shameful, squalid campaign.
In your - relentless, relentless - view.
Both campaigns were squalid.
Only one of the campaigns published a poster of people with dark faces in a queue, with the message Breaking Point over the top of it.
Remain lost the moral high ground when too many of its supporters tried to make capital out of a murder.
Both as disgusting as each other.
IMHO, the low point of the Remain campaign was Osborne's Punishment Budget. But, it probably worked.
For me the low point was Major and Blair turning up in NI threatening a return to the Troubles. Osborne's probably second though.
The Footsie seems to be falling, so either IMO the traders have realised that a remain victory is not nailed on, or their exit polls have swung towards leave.
We're not at that point yet. Basically the profits made from this morning's rising expectations about the result have been taken, and we're back to where we started, a little up on yesterday.
The Referendum result excepted, there is no real reason to expect the markets to be rising right now - all of the potential results present both economic and political challenges (e.g. we might soon not have a PM), and markets normally sink into the summer anyway. So if a Remain result pushes the market up tomorrow, selling on Monday (or probably Tuesday) should be a way to make some easy money.
It will be interesting to see what movement there is, if any, through the evening....
I'm officially calling this referendum for Remain or Leave, no one else is going to win
You can't rule out the exact dead heat
If it's a dead heat, Remain wins.
If it's a dead heat they'll call for a recount.
I read elsewhere that there's no legal basis for a national recount
There are counting agents for both sides.
Surely they could ask for a recount. But there might be a time limit and only the last counting district would know it is a draw - Western Isles?
As I understand it the normal rules providing for local recounts don't apply. So it doesn't matter how close the result might be in Council X, the results are sent off to be added to the national count.
Surely there would be no point in having local counting agents if they could not request a recount?
Of course only the last district to count would have the chance to know national result would be a draw or close.
I'm officially calling this referendum for Remain or Leave, no one else is going to win
You can't rule out the exact dead heat
If it's a dead heat, Remain wins.
If it's a dead heat they'll call for a recount.
I read elsewhere that there's no legal basis for a national recount
There are counting agents for both sides.
Surely they could ask for a recount. But there might be a time limit and only the last counting district would know it is a draw - Western Isles?
As I understand it the normal rules providing for local recounts don't apply. So it doesn't matter how close the result might be in Council X, the results are sent off to be added to the national count.
I am not sure whether there are any provisions for a national re-count or not - the chances of a VERY close result are of course vanishingly small. But if it did come down to a few thousand votes my instinct is that, whatever the rules may or may not provide for, the pressure for some sort of recount process would be very hard to resist.
Many US states have provisions for automatic recounts on votes that are within a given percentage, say 0.2%. That applies to constituency and state-wide elections, and hence to presidential elections (because of the electoral college there is no truly nationwide federal vote).
I think if the result is within that sort of margin, then calls for a recount will be hard to resist.
Birmingham also surprises me with 48-52 for Leave.
I think leave relying on cities like Birmingham should have rang alarm bells. A campaign based 80% on immigration is not going to win cities like Birmingham, Bradford which was also predicted to be narrowly leave. Its not that these places don't want controlled immigration they do, they are just not going to vote for a side that bangs on about that to the detriment of everything elese.
Another great post by you. In the final analysis, assuming a Remain victory, it will be the overplaying of the immigration card, and the idiocy of the hateful poster campaign that will be seen (rightly or wrongly) as the turning point. To think some on here defended it. It was a shameful, squalid campaign.
In your - relentless, relentless - view.
Both campaigns were squalid.
Only one of the campaigns published a poster of people with dark faces in a queue, with the message Breaking Point over the top of it.
Remain lost the moral high ground when too many of its supporters tried to make capital out of a murder.
Both as disgusting as each other.
IMHO, the low point of the Remain campaign was Osborne's Punishment Budget. But, it probably worked.
For me the low point was Major and Blair turning up in NI threatening a return to the Troubles. Osborne's probably second though.
A lot of remainers worked themselves into self-righteous hysterics over Farage's poster. I think Leave's continuing low point was the utter bollocks about Turkey. Gove, in particular, should be ashamed of himself.
The Footsie seems to be falling, so either IMO the traders have realised that a remain victory is not nailed on, or their exit polls have swung towards leave.
A bit of both, I'd suspect. Until the votes are counted I find it hard to believe Remain could win decisively, it's be tight or a loss, so this morning would have been overreaction no matter how great some last few polls were for remain.
The Footsie seems to be falling, so either IMO the traders have realised that a remain victory is not nailed on, or their exit polls have swung towards leave.
We're not at that point yet. Basically the profits made from this morning's rising expectations about the result have been taken, and we're back to where we started, a little up on yesterday.
The Referendum result excepted, there is no real reason to expect the markets to be rising right now - all of the potential results present both economic and political challenges (e.g. we might soon not have a PM), and markets normally sink into the summer anyway. So if a Remain result pushes the market up tomorrow, selling on Monday (or probably Tuesday) should be a way to make some easy money.
It will be interesting to see what movement there is, if any, through the evening....
Profit taking after the ramp up and position squaring into tonight. Why would you take a risk on such a crapshoot.
Mr. Rentool, Constantine the Great wasn't made Emperor in Haltwhistle.
Miss Plato, the polling is certainly more divergent than the election. I wonder if TNS will regret altering their methodology for their final poll (showed a 2pt Leave lead, would've been 7pts under the old methodology).
It would be better if a polling company stuck to its methodology, and got it wrong, so that they can correct their mistakes, rather than chopping and changing because they don't like the results they've got.
It's like answering a maths question. Far better to get it wrong, and have the teacher correct it, than spend your time cribbing off the pupil you think is cleverest.
And in the majority of FPTP seats, a) the colour of MP who will win is 99% known in advance, however you as a local voter might decide, b) whether you get Farage or Carswell has also been decided in advance, by four or five party activists a year or two prior.
I absolutely agree with you about the faults of a List system - which is why I prefer STV or constituency plus limited top-up - but these same flaws (of party control and no voter choice) are already deeply embedded in the system we currently use.
Indeed - and if I don't like the choice made by the local association, I can vote for another candidate or indeed none at all.
Or - as I'm actually doing - move to a seat where I like the MP. The moment Sadiq won the mayorality I decided to leave London, which has the added bonus that I'm moving to a seat with a rock-solid Tory majority and a very good MP.
Advocates for PR might argue that my vote will be 'wasted', but a) it's wasted anyway as I'm currently in a safe Labour seat, and b) I won't care because I get to live in a Tory seat.
Indeed, I thoroughly recommend moving constituencies as a cathartic and pro-active step to those disillusioned with their local results.
But even though most people won't even think about doing what I'm doing, large numbers of wasted votes cast for minority parties and candidates in safe seats are offset by the large numbers of wasted votes cast over and above the minimum required to win elsewhere.
My preferred system would involve keeping the constituency elections exactly as they are, but introduce a second class of junior MPs elected as 'top up' from a list system. The list itself could be automatically composed of the highest-polling losing candidates, sort of like the 'league table' of 3rd placed teams at Euro 2016.
I'd attach a few conditions - they must not have previously sat as an MP, they'd be excluded from ministerial office, and can serve a maximum of two terms as a list member, after which time they'd be expected to find a 'proper' seat and fight it. (The voters in these seats will have the performance of their former list MP to factor into their decision making, allowing them to make an arguably better-informed choice).
This system would be able to achieve near-100% proportionality while simultaneously retaining and indeed celebrating all that is good about FPTP.
Revelist @heyrevelist #BREAKING: Police have arrested shooter who opened fire in a cinema complex in Vierheim, Germany. At least 50 are injured (via @reuters)
As always and understandably total confusion at such incidents
Yeah right...Jo Coxgasm supporters have more or less implied that anybody that votes leave is a racist.
They have more or less implied that anybody that votes leave helped pull the trigger....
No they bloody well haven't, you're being hysterical, even if a few Remainers have indeed been hysterical as well.
Do you read Facebook?
I don't, but if that's your 'proof' it proves my point - a few Remainers have been hysterical, it's not significant and so not worth getting hysterical in return.
Revelist @heyrevelist #BREAKING: Police have arrested shooter who opened fire in a cinema complex in Vierheim, Germany. At least 50 are injured (via @reuters)
As always and understandably total confusion at such incidents
Now BBC report 'at least one' shot and many injuries due to tear gas
Free trade doesn't require free movement of people. The working classes have struggled under globalisation, understandably. Letting the rest of the globe then come in and undercut them on the unoutsourceable jobs (building extensions, driving taxis, cleaning and hairdressing) is taking the piss out of them a bit, don't you think?
It's a massive error to say that the working classes have struggled under globalisation. They benefit massively from it - all those large-screen TVs, cheap and good quality supermarket food, cheap holidays, good-quality cars at low prices, smartphones, new bathrooms and kitchens, clothes that cost virtually nothing: these are all benefits of globalisation. The idea that the bulk of the population has been impoverished in real terms by globalisation is a myth, and a pernicious one at that. We are all richer than ever before.
That's not to say that EU immigration hasn't been a problem, because of its scale and suddenness. I accept that, and to my mind it's the one persuasive argument of the Leave side, even though I think the reality is that life would be much less different in that respect that voters are led to believe. But looking at the picture in the round, unemployment is low and falling, wages are rising, the economy is doing well: it's not as though there is some complete dysfunction which justifies revolutionary change.
I think globalisation has been excellent for poor people around the world, and we should welcome that. It's an undeniable good thing that countries where people starved in living memory now have reasonable standards of living.
But, I think it stopped being a good thing for people in rich countries about 15 years ago.
I don't think that's the point. People in rich countries don't like globalisation. So it's just going to go away and they can carry on as before? It's the world we live in and the kind thing is to help people adapt. Leaving the EU as a part of that globalisation is at best displacement activity and probably makes things more difficult. On the other hand pretending that globalisation only has winners discredits any good you might do.
Leave should have done more to win over people like Alistair Meeks, we campaigned way too much on immigration, we were already ahead on that. We should have been like the E.U allows tax dodging for Starbucks etc if we leave we will get more in corporation tax to lower working class and middle class taxes. Would have been popular.
Reuters: German media reports an armed man has opened fire in a cinema complex in west #Germany
shit
That's just what the Remain camp didn't want... Lets hope it isn't too serious
It should not affect any such remain vote as the shooter of the MP should not affect the leave vote.
These are individuals with specific issues and on both counts do not reflect in any way all the decent people on either side of the referendum argument.
@JoeMurphyLondon: If he wins, Cameron could postpone the reshuffle until 2017, predicts a well-placed Tory. https://t.co/dsxbTUFO3m “Delaying it will focus people’s minds. Those MPs elected in 2010 and 2015 will be forced to ask themselves, ‘Do I really want to spend the next four or nine years moping in the Tea Room with Bill Cash and Bernard Jenkin, plotting the next referendum?’ Even those who backed Leave will not wish to waste their careers like that. Cameron could easily put the reshuffle off until 2017.”
Cameron's trouble is not whether Gove, Johnson etc are prepared to sign such a letter - it's the unbiddable backbench nutters that will bring him down. Of the 65 who refused to back the punishment budget, most will be prepared to lodge a letter with the Chairman of the 1922 - if they haven't already.
He'll have to throw something to the wolves - and it'll probably be Osborne.
That's why a reasonable win is important. I'm not a Tory but my guess is that after the vote the party and country will turn on the LEAVE campaign as they turned on Zak for his nasty divisive campaign.
This is in a different league and unless Leave win the leaders will be pariahs and tarred with this brush for a long time into the future
Rather than picking lows of the campaign...there has been way too many...much harder picking the highs.
On the leave side Dan Hanaan has been the standout for me. On remain probably Prescott
Dan Hannan is always good. Chris Grayling has been the pleasant surprise for me. He's not a politician I've particularly rated in the past, but on this issue he has been excellent - articulate, polite, resisting all invitations to trash his colleagues, and putting his case sensibly.
Reuters: German media reports an armed man has opened fire in a cinema complex in west #Germany
shit
That's just what the Remain camp didn't want... Lets hope it isn't too serious
It should affect any such remain vote as the shooter of the MP should not affect the leave vote.
These are individuals with specific issues and on both counts do not reflect in any way all the decent people on either side of the referendum argument.
Shouldn't and wouldn't are two totally different things.
Leave should have done more to win over people like Alistair Meeks, we campaigned way too much on immigration, we were already ahead on that. We should have been like the E.U allows tax dodging for Starbucks etc if we leave we will get more in corporation tax to lower working class and middle class taxes. Would have been popular.
Hahaha - very good.
The wider point though I agree with. Immigration was factored in.
Leave should have done more to win over people like Alistair Meeks, we campaigned way too much on immigration, we were already ahead on that. We should have been like the E.U allows tax dodging for Starbucks etc if we leave we will get more in corporation tax to lower working class and middle class taxes. Would have been popular.
LOL, if Leave had managed to recruit Mr Meeks they would be on 85% in the polls.
Birmingham also surprises me with 48-52 for Leave.
I think leave relying on cities like Birmingham should have rang alarm bells. A campaign based 80% on immigration is not going to win cities like Birmingham, Bradford which was also predicted to be narrowly leave. Its not that these places don't want controlled immigration they do, they are just not going to vote for a side that bangs on about that to the detriment of everything elese.
Another great post by you. In the final analysis, assuming a Remain victory, it will be the overplaying of the immigration card, and the idiocy of the hateful poster campaign that will be seen (rightly or wrongly) as the turning point. To think some on here defended it. It was a shameful, squalid campaign.
In your - relentless, relentless - view.
Both campaigns were squalid.
Only one of the campaigns published a poster of people with dark faces in a queue, with the message Breaking Point over the top of it.
Remain lost the moral high ground when too many of its supporters tried to make capital out of a murder.
Both as disgusting as each other.
IMHO, the low point of the Remain campaign was Osborne's Punishment Budget. But, it probably worked.
For me the low point was Major and Blair turning up in NI threatening a return to the Troubles. Osborne's probably second though.
A lot of remainers worked themselves into self-righteous hysterics over Farage's poster. I think Leave's continuing low point was the utter bollocks about Turkey. Gove, in particular, should be ashamed of himself.
Britain clears the way for talks on Turkey joining the EU on June 24th or June 30th.
Leave should have done more to win over people like Alistair Meeks, we campaigned way too much on immigration, we were already ahead on that. We should have been like the E.U allows tax dodging for Starbucks etc if we leave we will get more in corporation tax to lower working class and middle class taxes. Would have been popular.
LOL, if Leave had managed to recruit Mr Meeks they would be on 85% in the polls.
Or 25%.
PBers are a niche target and the campaigns could well lose more votes by recruiting us than not.
Rather than picking lows of the campaign...there has been way too many...much harder picking the highs.
Self-congratulatory maybe but the highlight of the campaign for me is this site. A forum of highly intelligent people expressing different views. How can I not be engaged by it all? I have spent far too much time here.
Birmingham also surprises me with 48-52 for Leave.
I think leave relying on cities like Birmingham should have rang alarm bells. A campaign based 80% on immigration is not going to win cities like Birmingham, Bradford which was also predicted to be narrowly leave. Its not that these places don't want controlled immigration they do, they are just not going to vote for a side that bangs on about that to the detriment of everything elese.
Another great post by you. In the final analysis, assuming a Remain victory, it will be the overplaying of the immigration card, and the idiocy of the hateful poster campaign that will be seen (rightly or wrongly) as the turning point. To think some on here defended it. It was a shameful, squalid campaign.
In your - relentless, relentless - view.
Both campaigns were squalid.
Only one of the campaigns published a poster of people with dark faces in a queue, with the message Breaking Point over the top of it.
Remain lost the moral high ground when too many of its supporters tried to make capital out of a murder.
Both as disgusting as each other.
IMHO, the low point of the Remain campaign was Osborne's Punishment Budget. But, it probably worked.
For me the low point was Major and Blair turning up in NI threatening a return to the Troubles. Osborne's probably second though.
A lot of remainers worked themselves into self-righteous hysterics over Farage's poster. I think Leave's continuing low point was the utter bollocks about Turkey. Gove, in particular, should be ashamed of himself.
Britain clears the way for talks on Turkey joining the EU on June 24th or June 30th.
@nunu If winning is everything, Leave campaigning on immigration was the rational thing to do. You play to your strengths.
If winning is not everything, you consider the nature of the victory that you want. That is where far too many Leavers went astray.
Their biggest mistake is not to have done any serious thinking over the last three years about the economic effects of Brexit and how to deal with them. Just trashing the reputation and integrity of every independent expert is no substitute. The silliest point of the entire campaign was taking umbrage at the President of the United States stating long-standing US policy, when their entire economic argument (such as it was) depended on the US.
Birmingham also surprises me with 48-52 for Leave.
I think leave relying on cities like Birmingham should have rang alarm bells. A campaign based 80% on immigration is not going to win cities like Birmingham, Bradford which was also predicted to be narrowly leave. Its not that these places don't want controlled immigration they do, they are just not going to vote for a side that bangs on about that to the detriment of everything elese.
Another great post by you. In the final analysis, assuming a Remain victory, it will be the overplaying of the immigration card, and the idiocy of the hateful poster campaign that will be seen (rightly or wrongly) as the turning point. To think some on here defended it. It was a shameful, squalid campaign.
In your - relentless, relentless - view.
Both campaigns were squalid.
Only one of the campaigns published a poster of people with dark faces in a queue, with the message Breaking Point over the top of it.
Remain lost the moral high ground when too many of its supporters tried to make capital out of a murder.
Both as disgusting as each other.
IMHO, the low point of the Remain campaign was Osborne's Punishment Budget. But, it probably worked.
For me the low point was Major and Blair turning up in NI threatening a return to the Troubles. Osborne's probably second though.
A lot of remainers worked themselves into self-righteous hysterics over Farage's poster. I think Leave's continuing low point was the utter bollocks about Turkey. Gove, in particular, should be ashamed of himself.
Britain clears the way for talks on Turkey joining the EU on June 24th or June 30th.
Our district in Norfolk is said to be the 13th most significant in anticipating the result. I'll be at the Count tonight.
As of 15:50, the presiding officer was on the 10th sheet of voters-in-person [50 per sheet] in my local polling station comprising c1400 electors. "Well over 50 an hour" This is by some distance a record turnout for this time of the day at this polling station - the Presiding Officer has done this one for years. And so have I - as the candidate. By the same time in the PCC election in May, he was still on the first sheet.
And there are 21000 postal voters [up 4000 since May] in the district, of whom 16000 had already returned by yesterday morning [76%]. So his sheet doesn't include his share of the postals. And more will have been received during the day yesterday and this morning.
At the General Election in 2015, there were 80 proxy voters registered. Over 1000 have been issued for EURef. Again unheard of.
It is said high turnout favours remain. In this corner of East Anglia, turnover is massive and we are still to get the evening rush.
With thunderstorms forecast for 2 hours time, the turnout will still exceed General Election proportions even if the heavens open and locals can't be bothered to find the umbrella.
In other news.... My daughter is an Oxford Undergrad. She has been hired at £250 along with other friends to do an 'exit poll' at a polling station for "12 hours, no lunch" for a group of 'investors'.
So, although there is no 'official' exit poll, the financiers are getting feedback throughout the day and adjusting their books accordingly. Just Sayin.
The silliest point of the entire campaign was taking umbrage at the President of the United States stating long-standing US policy, when their entire economic argument (such as it was) depended on the US.
Sorry, hasn't congress rebuked the president for that 'long standing US policy?' And in fact overturned it?
@nunu If winning is everything, Leave campaigning on immigration was the rational thing to do. You play to your strengths.
If winning is not everything, you consider the nature of the victory that you want. That is where far too many Leavers went astray.
Their biggest mistake is not to have done any serious thinking over the last three years about the economic effects of Brexit and how to deal with them. Just trashing the reputation and integrity of every independent expert is no substitute. The silliest point of the entire campaign was taking umbrage at the President of the United States stating long-standing US policy, when their entire economic argument (such as it was) depended on the US.
IMHO, for Leave to win, it has to be government policy. Having the governmental machine, together the popular press behind one argument is a very formidable combination.
Leave should have done more to win over people like Alistair Meeks, we campaigned way too much on immigration, we were already ahead on that. We should have been like the E.U allows tax dodging for Starbucks etc if we leave we will get more in corporation tax to lower working class and middle class taxes. Would have been popular.
LOL, if Leave had managed to recruit Mr Meeks they would be on 85% in the polls.
Or 25%.
PBers are a niche target and the campaigns could well lose more votes by recruiting us than not.
We are pretty good though at pointing out instantaneously those ideas which are going to be to the detriment of the campaign running them....and to their odds.
@nunu If winning is everything, Leave campaigning on immigration was the rational thing to do. You play to your strengths.
If winning is not everything, you consider the nature of the victory that you want. That is where far too many Leavers went astray.
Their biggest mistake is not to have done any serious thinking over the last three years about the economic effects of Brexit and how to deal with them. Just trashing the reputation and integrity of every independent expert is no substitute. The silliest point of the entire campaign was taking umbrage at the President of the United States stating long-standing US policy, when their entire economic argument (such as it was) depended on the US.
IMHO, for Leave to win, it has to be government policy. Having the governmental machine, together the popular press behind one argument is a very formidable combination.
Also, if it's government policy, there is a destination. If there's no destination, you look divided, and confused.
If its close enough for a recount put boris and osborne in a giant glass dome like at the end of the crystal maze. Add 100 each of remain and leave votez and turn on the fans.
Birmingham also surprises me with 48-52 for Leave.
I think leave relying on cities like Birmingham should have rang alarm bells. A campaign based 80% on immigration is not going to win cities like Birmingham, Bradford which was also predicted to be narrowly leave. Its not that these places don't want controlled immigration they do, they are just not going to vote for a side that bangs on about that to the detriment of everything elese.
Another great post by you. In the final analysis, assuming a Remain victory, it will be the overplaying of the immigration card, and the idiocy of the hateful poster campaign that will be seen (rightly or wrongly) as the turning point. To think some on here defended it. It was a shameful, squalid campaign.
In your - relentless, relentless - view.
Both campaigns were squalid.
Only one of the campaigns published a poster of people with dark faces in a queue, with the message Breaking Point over the top of it.
Remain lost the moral high ground when too many of its supporters tried to make capital out of a murder.
Both as disgusting as each other.
IMHO, the low point of the Remain campaign was Osborne's Punishment Budget. But, it probably worked.
For me the low point was Major and Blair turning up in NI threatening a return to the Troubles. Osborne's probably second though.
A lot of remainers worked themselves into self-righteous hysterics over Farage's poster. I think Leave's continuing low point was the utter bollocks about Turkey. Gove, in particular, should be ashamed of himself.
Britain clears the way for talks on Turkey joining the EU on June 24th or June 30th.
Would those be talks which have been ongoing since 2005 and have hardly got anywhere?
I've fisked the whole 'The Turks are coming' several times on this site.
It's illustrated how bankrupt both campaigns have been, as we've been unable to have a sensible conversation about future enlargement of the EU and its consequences.
While I've bitterly resented the thinly-veiled accusations of racism (occasionally even on this site, which is a shame), there is no doubt that the only reason Turkey is mentioned is because it's a Muslim country. That is disgusting and repellent.
Rather than picking lows of the campaign...there has been way too many...much harder picking the highs.
On the leave side Dan Hanaan has been the standout for me. On remain probably Prescott
The highs were all Tories who at one time or another I have loathed more than any other politician in the UK.
1, John Major for his home truths about Boris plus adding some bite to a feeble campaign 2. David Cameron. Always led from the front. Always polite even under the most ignorant attacks. I misjudged him badly 3. George Osborne. Unlike his feeble colleagues and the leader of the opposition and Theresa May never went into hiding even when things got uncomfortable.
It's a massive error to say that the working classes have struggled under globalisation. They benefit massively from it - all those large-screen TVs, cheap and good quality supermarket food, cheap holidays, good-quality cars at low prices, smartphones, new bathrooms and kitchens, clothes that cost virtually nothing: these are all benefits of globalisation. The idea that the bulk of the population has been impoverished in real terms by globalisation is a myth, and a pernicious one at that. We are all richer than ever before.
My God! That depressed me. I thought that I was "Working Class", but it seems that I must be even at a lower station in life than that. I don't have a large screen TV, can't afford holidays, new bathrooms or kitchens. I do have enough to eat, and can just about pay the utility bills. (I was better off before my job was "globalised" and sent to Asia, mind you.)
"We are all richer than ever before." - well, fair enough, maybe "most" people are - but I certainly am not.
My daughter is an Oxford Undergrad. She has been hired at £250 along with other friends to do an 'exit poll' at a polling station for "12 hours, no lunch" for a group of 'investors'.
Is she a pretty girl currently in Primrose Hill, by any chance? If so, you might need to warn here aboutr undesirables...
Our district in Norfolk is said to be the 13th most significant in anticipating the result. I'll be at the Count tonight.
As of 15:50, the presiding officer was on the 10th sheet of voters-in-person [50 per sheet] in my local polling station comprising c1400 electors. "Well over 50 an hour" This is by some distance a record turnout for this time of the day at this polling station - the Presiding Officer has done this one for years. And so have I - as the candidate. By the same time in the PCC election in May, he was still on the first sheet.
And there are 21000 postal voters [up 4000 since May] in the district, of whom 16000 had already returned by yesterday morning [76%]. So his sheet doesn't include his share of the postals. And more will have been received during the day yesterday and this morning.
At the General Election in 2015, there were 80 proxy voters registered. Over 1000 have been issued for EURef. Again unheard of.
It is said high turnout favours remain. In this corner of East Anglia, turnover is massive and we are still to get the evening rush.
With thunderstorms forecast for 2 hours time, the turnout will still exceed General Election proportions even if the heavens open and locals can't be bothered to find the umbrella.
In other news.... My daughter is an Oxford Undergrad. She has been hired at £250 along with other friends to do an 'exit poll' at a polling station for "12 hours, no lunch" for a group of 'investors'.
So, although there is no 'official' exit poll, the financiers are getting feedback throughout the day and adjusting their books accordingly. Just Sayin.
Rather than picking lows of the campaign...there has been way too many...much harder picking the highs.
On the leave side Dan Hanaan has been the standout for me. On remain probably Prescott
The highs were all Tories who at one time or another I have loathed more than any other politician in the UK.
1, John Major for his home truths about Boris plus adding some bite to a feeble campaign 2. David Cameron. Always led from the front. Always polite even under the most ignorant attacks. I misjudged him badly 3. George Osborne. Unlike his feeble colleagues and the leader of the opposition and Theresa May never went into hiding even when things got uncomfortable.
Roger discovers his inner Tory, you'll be fox hunting next :-)
Rather than picking lows of the campaign...there has been way too many...much harder picking the highs.
I've found alot of the points on here for "leave" from @Charles, @Casino_Royale and others to be very good
Martin Lewis (Even though he's not part of the campaign) good for presenting why on balance 'Remaining' might be better.
The official campaigns - not so much.
Andrea Leadsom has been good. She deserves a cabinet job.
I'd heard that, but the only time I saw her in the Wembley debate she was not stellar - maybe she's done enough all told to deserve a job though.
Boris getting a job would be hilarious - surely he's gone too far for Cameron (who even though I think will be gone in a year even with a remain win) to give him a job?
I love the tool, and I'll be using it through the night (stop sniggering at the back), but when I look at the predictions for the places I know reasonably well (the area where I was Leader of the Council, the area I live now, the area I was raised in) they just don't feel right.
If Turkey join the EU tomorrow or next week, that's going to annoy a few voters.
Joining tomorrow? Bit of a leap there:
Senior diplomats in Brussels almost universally think Turkish membership is unthinkable in the foreseeable future. All EU nations hold a veto on accession, some in private are implacably opposed, and France and Austria are legally bound to hold referendums on the issue if Turkey meets its membership criteria.
Turkey has also made barely any headway in meeting the EU’s membership criteria. It has closed just one of 35 negotiating chapters and the European Commission has noted it is going backwards in some areas, particularly regarding human rights and rule of law.
Our district in Norfolk is said to be the 13th most significant in anticipating the result. I'll be at the Count tonight.
As of 15:50, the presiding officer was on the 10th sheet of voters-in-person [50 per sheet] in my local polling station comprising c1400 electors. "Well over 50 an hour" This is by some distance a record turnout for this time of the day at this polling station - the Presiding Officer has done this one for years. And so have I - as the candidate. By the same time in the PCC election in May, he was still on the first sheet.
And there are 21000 postal voters [up 4000 since May] in the district, of whom 16000 had already returned by yesterday morning [76%]. So his sheet doesn't include his share of the postals. And more will have been received during the day yesterday and this morning.
At the General Election in 2015, there were 80 proxy voters registered. Over 1000 have been issued for EURef. Again unheard of.
It is said high turnout favours remain. In this corner of East Anglia, turnover is massive and we are still to get the evening rush.
With thunderstorms forecast for 2 hours time, the turnout will still exceed General Election proportions even if the heavens open and locals can't be bothered to find the umbrella.
In other news.... My daughter is an Oxford Undergrad. She has been hired at £250 along with other friends to do an 'exit poll' at a polling station for "12 hours, no lunch" for a group of 'investors'.
So, although there is no 'official' exit poll, the financiers are getting feedback throughout the day and adjusting their books accordingly. Just Sayin.
Bunnco - Your Man on the Spot
Massive turnout indicates good news for leave methinks.
Adlestrop is clearly the centre of Britain - l'Angleterre profonde, as Edward Thomas knew, when he wrote this poem. A poem which seems somehow fitting today
Adlestrop
BY EDWARD THOMAS
Yes. I remember Adlestrop— The name, because one afternoon Of heat the express-train drew up there Unwontedly. It was late June.
The steam hissed. Someone cleared his throat. No one left and no one came On the bare platform. What I saw Was Adlestrop—only the name
And willows, willow-herb, and grass, And meadowsweet, and haycocks dry, No whit less still and lonely fair Than the high cloudlets in the sky.
And for that minute a blackbird sang Close by, and round him, mistier, Farther and farther, all the birds Of Oxfordshire and Gloucestershire.
Furthest point from the sea is Coton-in-the-Elms, Derbyshire.
In addition, I believe the narrowest point between west and east coasts in Scotland is just twenty miles; from memory between Bonar Bridge and an estuary on the west coast. Although the 'net says it is the Clyde-Forth gap at 25 miles.
If I had access to the correct 'puter I'd measure it ...
Free trade doesn't require free movement of people. The working classes have struggled under globalisation, understandably. Letting the rest of the globe then come in and undercut them on the unoutsourceable jobs (building extensions, driving taxis, cleaning and hairdressing) is taking the piss out of them a bit, don't you think?
It's a massive error to say that the working classes have struggled under globalisation. They benefit massively from it - all those large-screen TVs, cheap and good quality supermarket food, cheap holidays, good-quality cars at low prices, smartphones, new bathrooms and kitchens, clothes that cost virtually nothing: these are all benefits of globalisation. The idea that the bulk of the population has been impoverished in real terms by globalisation is a myth, and a pernicious one at that. We are all richer than ever before.
That's not to say that EU immigration hasn't been a problem, because of its scale and suddenness. I accept that, and to my mind it's the one persuasive argument of the Leave side, even though I think the reality is that life would be much less different in that respect that voters are led to believe. But looking at the picture in the round, unemployment is low and falling, wages are rising, the economy is doing well: it's not as though there is some complete dysfunction which justifies revolutionary change.
I think globalisation has been excellent for poor people around the world, and we should welcome that. It's an undeniable good thing that countries where people starved in living memory now have reasonable standards of living.
But, I think it stopped being a good thing for people in rich countries about 15 years ago.
I don't think that's the point. People in rich countries don't like globalisation. So it's just going to go away and they can carry on as before? It's the world we live in and the kind thing is to help people adapt. Leaving the EU as a part of that globalisation is at best displacement activity and probably makes things more difficult. On the other hand pretending that globalisation only has winners discredits any good you might do.
People in rich countries vote for globalisation on Amazon every day. Each time they choose buy something made in Vietnam or China, they vote for globalisation.
Said people then complain about the loss of local manufacturing jobs.
IMHO, for Leave to win, it has to be government policy. Having the governmental machine, together the popular press behind one argument is a very formidable combination.
I used to think that, but this referendum looks to be close enough to indicate that Leave could easily have won it (assuming that they haven't, of course), if only they'd been more serious about the economy.
They've probably thrown away the best chance in a generation, because of that error.
Told it's been good turnout in my neck of the Tory shires. I'd assume that would be good for Leave, but ANdyJs's calculations seem to indicate it's not quite as strong for leave as I would have thought.
Ended up watching the whole 11 minute video. Far better than modern coverage.
Just think how good the reporting on Roman elections must have been.
I still love the Arthur election theme.
Somebody's put the old election theme onto the 2015 intro and it's pretty darn good. The new theme sounds like it could be from a generic news broadcast anywhere in the world. The Arthur theme tells you something important is happening.
Birmingham also surprises me with 48-52 for Leave.
>
Another great post by you. In the final analysis, assuming a Remain victory, it will be the overplaying of the immigration card, and the idiocy of the hateful poster campaign that will be seen (rightly or wrongly) as the turning point. To think some on here defended it. It was a shameful, squalid campaign.
In your - relentless, relentless - view.
Both campaigns were squalid.
Remain lost the moral high ground when too many of its supporters tried to make capital out of a murder.
Both as disgusting as each other.
IMHO, the low point of the Remain campaign was Osborne's Punishment Budget. But, it probably worked.
For me the low point was Major and Blair turning up in NI threatening a return to the Troubles. Osborne's probably second though.
A lot of remainers worked themselves into self-righteous hysterics over Farage's poster. I think Leave's continuing low point was the utter bollocks about Turkey. Gove, in particular, should be ashamed of himself.
Britain clears the way for talks on Turkey joining the EU on June 24th or June 30th.
Would those be talks which have been ongoing since 2005 and have hardly got anywhere?
I've fisked the whole 'The Turks are coming' several times on this site.
It's illustrated how bankrupt both campaigns have been, as we've been unable to have a sensible conversation about future enlargement of the EU and its consequences.
While I've bitterly resented the thinly-veiled accusations of racism (occasionally even on this site, which is a shame), there is no doubt that the only reason Turkey is mentioned is because it's a Muslim country. That is disgusting and repellent.
Seems like a very delicate splitting of hairs. You've bitterly resented the thinly-veiled accusations of racism yet you found the attacks on Turkey because it's a Muslim country disgusting and repellent.......puzzled
Adlestrop is clearly the centre of Britain - l'Angleterre profonde, as Edward Thomas knew, when he wrote this poem. A poem which seems somehow fitting today
Adlestrop
BY EDWARD THOMAS
Yes. I remember Adlestrop— The name, because one afternoon Of heat the express-train drew up there Unwontedly. It was late June.
The steam hissed. Someone cleared his throat. No one left and no one came On the bare platform. What I saw Was Adlestrop—only the name
And willows, willow-herb, and grass, And meadowsweet, and haycocks dry, No whit less still and lonely fair Than the high cloudlets in the sky.
And for that minute a blackbird sang Close by, and round him, mistier, Farther and farther, all the birds Of Oxfordshire and Gloucestershire.
Comments
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/23/with-some-sadness-ill-vote-to-leave-an-undemocratic-and-decaying/
Leaving the EU will remind our MPs that they can be sacked because they can't say: it was the EU wot made me do it. That it?
I think that most of the electorate is smarter than you give them credit for, and are always in charge. They after all have to date voted for Parties that have wanted to remain in the EU, while a minority voted for a Party that wanted to Leave the EU.
Still not sure about the problem with One Nation Conservatism you posted about.
I daresay we could also have had LNER Apple Green. But that's LNER rubbish ...
I am not sure whether there are any provisions for a national re-count or not - the chances of a VERY close result are of course vanishingly small. But if it did come down to a few thousand votes my instinct is that, whatever the rules may or may not provide for, the pressure for some sort of recount process would be very hard to resist.
And Dimbleby was doing it even then.
Shame the sky is so dark nobody can see it.
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/745946265888907264
The Referendum result excepted, there is no real reason to expect the markets to be rising right now - all of the potential results present both economic and political challenges (e.g. we might soon not have a PM), and markets normally sink into the summer anyway. So if a Remain result pushes the market up tomorrow, selling on Monday (or probably Tuesday) should be a way to make some easy money.
It will be interesting to see what movement there is, if any, through the evening....
Of course only the last district to count would have the chance to know national result would be a draw or close.
I think if the result is within that sort of margin, then calls for a recount will be hard to resist.
Why would you take a risk on such a crapshoot.
It's like answering a maths question. Far better to get it wrong, and have the teacher correct it, than spend your time cribbing off the pupil you think is cleverest.
Indeed - and if I don't like the choice made by the local association, I can vote for another candidate or indeed none at all.
Or - as I'm actually doing - move to a seat where I like the MP. The moment Sadiq won the mayorality I decided to leave London, which has the added bonus that I'm moving to a seat with a rock-solid Tory majority and a very good MP.
Advocates for PR might argue that my vote will be 'wasted', but a) it's wasted anyway as I'm currently in a safe Labour seat, and b) I won't care because I get to live in a Tory seat.
Indeed, I thoroughly recommend moving constituencies as a cathartic and pro-active step to those disillusioned with their local results.
But even though most people won't even think about doing what I'm doing, large numbers of wasted votes cast for minority parties and candidates in safe seats are offset by the large numbers of wasted votes cast over and above the minimum required to win elsewhere.
My preferred system would involve keeping the constituency elections exactly as they are, but introduce a second class of junior MPs elected as 'top up' from a list system. The list itself could be automatically composed of the highest-polling losing candidates, sort of like the 'league table' of 3rd placed teams at Euro 2016.
I'd attach a few conditions - they must not have previously sat as an MP, they'd be excluded from ministerial office, and can serve a maximum of two terms as a list member, after which time they'd be expected to find a 'proper' seat and fight it. (The voters in these seats will have the performance of their former list MP to factor into their decision making, allowing them to make an arguably better-informed choice).
This system would be able to achieve near-100% proportionality while simultaneously retaining and indeed celebrating all that is good about FPTP.
#BREAKING: Police have arrested shooter who opened fire in a cinema complex in Vierheim, Germany. At least 50 are injured (via @reuters)
As always and understandably total confusion at such incidents
Sleazy REMAIN on the slide.
On remain probably Prescott
These are individuals with specific issues and on both counts do not reflect in any way all the decent people on either side of the referendum argument.
Just think how good the reporting on Roman elections must have been.
As the crow flies:
Haltwhistle - John O'Groats 410km
Haltwhistle - Porthcurno, St Levan: 590 km
This is in a different league and unless Leave win the leaders will be pariahs and tarred with this brush for a long time into the future
Sometimes it's nice background noise when I am doing tedious work.
http://www.cityam.com/243872/eu-referendum-most-important-results-watch
Martin Lewis (Even though he's not part of the campaign) good for presenting why on balance 'Remaining' might be better.
The official campaigns - not so much.
The wider point though I agree with. Immigration was factored in.
If winning is not everything, you consider the nature of the victory that you want. That is where far too many Leavers went astray.
See http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/7b06dadc-323e-11e6-bda0-04585c31b153.html#axzz4CPoHpOMa
PBers are a niche target and the campaigns could well lose more votes by recruiting us than not.
"The town at the centre of Britain"
Our district in Norfolk is said to be the 13th most significant in anticipating the result. I'll be at the Count tonight.
As of 15:50, the presiding officer was on the 10th sheet of voters-in-person [50 per sheet] in my local polling station comprising c1400 electors. "Well over 50 an hour" This is by some distance a record turnout for this time of the day at this polling station - the Presiding Officer has done this one for years. And so have I - as the candidate. By the same time in the PCC election in May, he was still on the first sheet.
And there are 21000 postal voters [up 4000 since May] in the district, of whom 16000 had already returned by yesterday morning [76%]. So his sheet doesn't include his share of the postals. And more will have been received during the day yesterday and this morning.
At the General Election in 2015, there were 80 proxy voters registered. Over 1000 have been issued for EURef. Again unheard of.
It is said high turnout favours remain. In this corner of East Anglia, turnover is massive and we are still to get the evening rush.
With thunderstorms forecast for 2 hours time, the turnout will still exceed General Election proportions even if the heavens open and locals can't be bothered to find the umbrella.
In other news....
My daughter is an Oxford Undergrad. She has been hired at £250 along with other friends to do an 'exit poll' at a polling station for "12 hours, no lunch" for a group of 'investors'.
So, although there is no 'official' exit poll, the financiers are getting feedback throughout the day and adjusting their books accordingly. Just Sayin.
Bunnco - Your Man on the Spot
See http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/7b06dadc-323e-11e6-bda0-04585c31b153.html#axzz4CPoHpOMa
If Turkey join the EU tomorrow or next week, that's going to annoy a few voters.
Sorry, hasn't congress rebuked the president for that 'long standing US policy?' And in fact overturned it?
Off to cast my leave vote now.
It's illustrated how bankrupt both campaigns have been, as we've been unable to have a sensible conversation about future enlargement of the EU and its consequences.
While I've bitterly resented the thinly-veiled accusations of racism (occasionally even on this site, which is a shame), there is no doubt that the only reason Turkey is mentioned is because it's a Muslim country. That is disgusting and repellent.
1, John Major for his home truths about Boris plus adding some bite to a feeble campaign
2. David Cameron. Always led from the front. Always polite even under the most ignorant attacks. I misjudged him badly
3. George Osborne. Unlike his feeble colleagues and the leader of the opposition and Theresa May never went into hiding even when things got uncomfortable.
I don't have a large screen TV, can't afford holidays, new bathrooms or kitchens. I do have enough to eat, and can just about pay the utility bills.
(I was better off before my job was "globalised" and sent to Asia, mind you.)
"We are all richer than ever before." - well, fair enough, maybe "most" people are - but I certainly am not.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3656143/Total-shambles-Fury-people-turned-away-voting-EU-referendum-errors-Leighton-Buzzard-polling-station.html
Boris getting a job would be hilarious - surely he's gone too far for Cameron (who even though I think will be gone in a year even with a remain win) to give him a job?
He hasn't registered one millisecond for me on this campaign. But maybe if he'd punched somebody...?
Is your area expected to be more Remain/Leave? Any ETA on the result?
I still don't know what I'll do about following it.
Senior diplomats in Brussels almost universally think Turkish membership is unthinkable in the foreseeable future. All EU nations hold a veto on accession, some in private are implacably opposed, and France and Austria are legally bound to hold referendums on the issue if Turkey meets its membership criteria.
Turkey has also made barely any headway in meeting the EU’s membership criteria. It has closed just one of 35 negotiating chapters and the European Commission has noted it is going backwards in some areas, particularly regarding human rights and rule of law.
And for more info:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Centre_points_of_the_United_Kingdom
In addition, I believe the narrowest point between west and east coasts in Scotland is just twenty miles; from memory between Bonar Bridge and an estuary on the west coast. Although the 'net says it is the Clyde-Forth gap at 25 miles.
If I had access to the correct 'puter I'd measure it ...
Said people then complain about the loss of local manufacturing jobs.
They've probably thrown away the best chance in a generation, because of that error.
Somebody's put the old election theme onto the 2015 intro and it's pretty darn good. The new theme sounds like it could be from a generic news broadcast anywhere in the world. The Arthur theme tells you something important is happening.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=szBdDC5PlI4
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Centre_points_of_the_United_Kingdom