Trouble with Stephen Woolfe is his background is in the city and his reason for going into politics was EU regulation - presumably of financial services.
We already know most of this but it's interesting to read anyway:
"The referendum has revealed a great divide in Britain. According to YouGov polling, the overwhelming majority of university graduates — 70 per cent — have been for Remain. But among those with nothing above some GCSEs, a similarly big majority — 68 per cent — has been for Leave. The highest social classes have been for Remain (62 per cent). The lowest have been for Leave (63 per cent). There has also been a city versus country divide. Parts of London have been well over 70 per cent for Remain, whereas country areas — particularly on the coast — have been for Leave. Every election is divisive, but none has pitted rich against poor like this one. The social divide is far more dramatic than the divide between the two main political parties."
Surely this relates to those who gain opportunity from the EU. If you have a graduate level education or are social class AB the opportunities will be huge. Compare that with someone from a small country town, or WWC city area, competing in the jobs market against EU citizens willing to live ten to a house / caravan to earn some wedge for a couple of years to take back to normally eastern Europe as a nest egg. All the time whilst having public services stretched, and the very nature of communities changed
The notion that the UK has less inclination to use its kicking boots than the French when it comes to the EU would be a huge blot on our national character....
Really? Germany, who wanted Greece to leave the Eurozone, would like to force a country that doesn't want to be a member, in against their wishes.
I know lots of German politicians. They want to save the Eurozone. They have not the slightest interest in trying to force someone who doesn't want to be a member from joining. Why would they?
Germany won't "force" us in, our political "leaders" will sign us up.
When I say the Euro is back on the agenda tomorrow, I mean the campaign to get us to join re-starts tomorrow. This REMAIN win (if it's a landslide) will be the launch pad. Of course it won't be immediate... I imagine it will take a decade of slow and insidious "softening up" of the British public but we know where end game is. Where it has always been for the europhiles.
Tomorrow is the beginning of the end for the Pound, IMO.
I realise this is just make believe to try and shock a few undecided into voting Leave but if Blair and his fellow Europhiles weren't able to get us to join the euro 15 years ago when it was shiny and new, then there is no way we will be joining now.
No, I genunely believe it.
Unlike most of the people on here I don't "spin". I just post what I think.
People must vote for whatever they want. What I post here won't make any difference to anything anyway.
If PB is anything to go by - there's a significant number of homeless Tory types/others that are very unimpressed with Dave & George. Same elsewhere too.
Which is utterly bonkers, given that Dave got them the referendum they wanted.
Hopefully those who have lost their marbles over this will find them again in the next few months.
Richard, you really are going to have to learn that calling people racists, idiots and crazies will not endear you to your target.
I didn't want a referendum - we have bigger fish to fry. I'm glad I got one, but I'll give Cameron no credit for it - it was an act of pure political calculation in order to win an election.
He's given us a referendum and then told us there is only one answer, and done so in a way that has lost his credibility.
Ukip might do well to get someone like Flynn as their leader rather than Farage. There are people who would be tempted to vote for them under a different leader.
I think Diane James would be their best bet. Imo, floating voters would cut UKIP more slack if they had a female leader, because they'd think (however irrationally) that a woman couldn't possibly be secretly bigoted and so must be saying what she says out of genuine concern for the country.
Suzanne Evans is obviously the closest UKIP has to a media darling, but I think she's a bit too posh for UKIP's target audience.
If PB is anything to go by - there's a significant number of homeless Tory types/others that are very unimpressed with Dave & George. Same elsewhere too.
Which is utterly bonkers, given that Dave got them the referendum they wanted.
Hopefully those who have lost their marbles over this will find them again in the next few months.
Nothing that can't be cured with a new leader.
Yes, I think Cameron and Osborne will draw most of this irrational poison. No problem for Cameron, of course, but a bit more of a problem for Osborne. Still, he more than anyone will understand that that's politics, and getting to be one of the most successful Chancellors of the post-war era isn't a bad career highlight by any standard.
I still think it will be very very close - not a foregone conclusion at all. The idea of voting to make it close seems very risky to me.
Fascinating post by @nunu below - my impression was that Vote Leave were much more organised than they appeared, with better canvass data, and that it was all the parties doing their own work and street stalls etc that would mean not enough data for today - but I spent an hour running round with early morning targeted Remain leaflets so looks like I was wrong.
Welcome to new and returning posters - feels like something of a family reunion. Hope we are all still family this time tomorrow. Good luck to those who are heavily involved, I think I'm taking a relaxing evening before joining you later for the results.
We have no one to blame but our selves. I don't blame Dave but won't vote Tory after this even if the margin is 55-45. Unless they have an outer as leader which they won't. And won't vote ukip whilst Nigel Farrage is leader. So have no one to vote for as all the others are europhiles. Oh well.
I don't think you're alone nunu. There are a fair few politically homeless people now.
If PB is anything to go by - there's a significant number of homeless Tory types/others that are very unimpressed with Dave & George. Same elsewhere too.
Really? Germany, who wanted Greece to leave the Eurozone, would like to force a country that doesn't want to be a member, in against their wishes.
I know lots of German politicians. They want to save the Eurozone. They have not the slightest interest in trying to force someone who doesn't want to be a member from joining. Why would they?
Germany won't "force" us in, our political "leaders" will sign us up.
When I say the Euro is back on the agenda tomorrow, I mean the campaign to get us to join re-starts tomorrow. This REMAIN win (if it's a landslide) will be the launch pad. Of course it won't be immediate... I imagine it will take a decade of slow and insidious "softening up" of the British public but we know where end game is. Where it has always been for the europhiles.
Tomorrow is the beginning of the end for the Pound, IMO.
I realise this is just make believe to try and shock a few undecided into voting Leave but if Blair and his fellow Europhiles weren't able to get us to join the euro 15 years ago when it was shiny and new, then there is no way we will be joining now.
No, I genunely believe it.
Unlike most of the people on here I don't "spin". I just post what I think.
People must vote for whatever they want what I post here won't make any difference to anything anyway.
You won't see a movement to join the Euro unless the Eurozone begins to consistently outperform us economically and it's credible that the Euro is the reason. In other words if the Euro looked like copper-bottomed success.
How likely is a split in the tories, official (liberal) conservatives with Cameron and a breakaway faction (social) conservatives which go after the UKIP and working class ex Labour voters?
If Farage goes, the BOO Tories will try and oust Dave and get BOO in charge, failing which they will break off and 'legitimise' UKIP in a merger.
Surely this relates to those who gain opportunity from the EU.
Yes, it has nothing to do with how decent, or smart, or educated a person is. It really is as simple as dividing into those who feel they benefit and those who feel they lose out.
I've said it before and I'll say it again we NEED electoral reform after this. FPTP with the two big party system crushing the smaller parties is surely on it's last legs? The Tories are a coalition that is pulling apart and so are Labour, its ridiculous.
Fully agreed. Our politics is so personal and polarised it needs a radical shift like this to get away from swing voters in marginals and towards commanding public appeal and confidence.
Absolutely scorching hot weather here in my largest village in the North west. Just been to vote and never seen anything like it, they were queuing outside. Normally, it's just one man and his dog. Lots of "oldies."
Completely OT, but I'm watching footage of the first test flight of that A350. All the people on board are wearing parachutes!! They can't have been that confident, LOL.
Really? Germany, who wanted Greece to leave the Eurozone, would like to force a country that doesn't want to be a member, in against their wishes.
I know lots of German politicians. They want to save the Eurozone. They have not the slightest interest in trying to force someone who doesn't want to be a member from joining. Why would they?
Germany won't "force" us in, our political "leaders" will sign us up.
When I say the Euro is back on the agenda tomorrow, I mean the campaign to get us to join re-starts tomorrow. This REMAIN win (if it's a landslide) will be the launch pad. Of course it won't be immediate... I imagine it will take a decade of slow and insidious "softening up" of the British public but we know where end game is. Where it has always been for the europhiles.
Tomorrow is the beginning of the end for the Pound, IMO.
I realise this is just make believe to try and shock a few undecided into voting Leave but if Blair and his fellow Europhiles weren't able to get us to join the euro 15 years ago when it was shiny and new, then there is no way we will be joining now.
No, I genunely believe it.
Unlike most of the people on here I don't "spin". I just post what I think.
People must vote for whatever they want what I post here won't make any difference to anything anyway.
You won't see a movement to join the Euro unless the Eurozone begins to consistently outperform us economically and it's credible that the Euro is the reason. In other words if the Euro looked like copper-bottomed success.
Much like the reasons that led to us joining the EEC in the first place.
(1) Farage should resign tomorrow morning. Properly this time.
(2) Cameron will stay until 2019.
(3) The next recession will be 100% Osborne's fault.
(4) Priti Patel will have more time to spend in her dungeon.
Farage won't quit UKIP - he can't. He's a publicity junkie who would rather destroy the party than leave it. UKIP are nothing without him ...and nothing with him
Ukip might do well to get someone like Flynn as their leader rather than Farage. There are people who would be tempted to vote for them under a different leader.
I think Diane James would be their best bet.
Suzanne Evans is obviously the closest UKIP has to a media darling, but I think she's a bit too posh for UKIP's target audience.
Suzanne Evans is their best bet. Firstly, her work on the UKIP manifesto was top notch. Secondly, she is a good media performer. Thirdly, she will appeal to a very different demographic to Farage, who is more than a little marmite.
Thick as the mud they are spending the weekend in....I am sure they will all be in tw@tter moaning how unfair it all is, just like when the the summer exams had a tough question or two.
If PB is anything to go by - there's a significant number of homeless Tory types/others that are very unimpressed with Dave & George. Same elsewhere too.
Which is utterly bonkers, given that Dave got them the referendum they wanted.
Hopefully those who have lost their marbles over this will find them again in the next few months.
Short-term political people get all righteously indignant about process, but ultimately it's not about process, it's about outcomes. The anti-EU people didn't want a referendum. They wanted to leave the EU.
If PB is anything to go by - there's a significant number of homeless Tory types/others that are very unimpressed with Dave & George. Same elsewhere too.
Which is utterly bonkers, given that Dave got them the referendum they wanted.
Hopefully those who have lost their marbles over this will find them again in the next few months.
Richard, you really are going to have to learn that calling people racists, idiots and crazies will not endear you to your target.
I didn't want a referendum - we have bigger fish to fry. I'm glad I got one, but I'll give Cameron no credit for it - it was an act of pure political calculation in order to win an election.
He's given us a referendum and then told us there is only one answer, and done so in a way that has lost his credibility.
In other words you disagree with Cameron's position in the referendum (and, I suspect, resent his effectiveness). Fair enough. I disagree with Michael Gove on this, and I recognise that he's used some extremely dubious arguments. But I'm not going to lay into him, say he's 'lost all credibility', let alone go into a huff if he remains in a senior position or even becomes PM. Sane people can disagree on the balance of arguments in a complex issue like this which has multiple facets.
Completely OT, but I'm watching footage of the first test flight of that A350. All the people on board are wearing parachutes!! They can't have been that confident, LOL.
Oh I'm sure it's EU safety regs for all Airbus test flights
Farage's poster was definitely a mistake in terms of trying to win over floating voters. I'm not sure what he was thinking when he commissioned it. Leave was doing very nicely in the polls at the time so it wasn't necessary to take a risk with it.
He was feeding his base what they crave. It's who he is.
I'm really confused. I've seen nothing today to change my view that this vote is on a knife-edge. Yet I come on here to find confident remained and wailing leavers. Bar the betting markets (who are almost probably as blind as we are, if not more), what has changed?
How likely is a split in the tories, official (liberal) conservatives with Cameron and a breakaway faction (social) conservatives which go after the UKIP and working class ex Labour voters?
If Farage goes, the BOO Tories will try and oust Dave and get BOO in charge, failing which they will break off and 'legitimise' UKIP in a merger.
Any merger is more likely to delegitimise the splitters. It wouldn't be like the SDP split which posed an existential threat to Labour that they survived by the skin of their teeth. On the contrary, the Tories, minus the Eurofanatics, would be the only game in town for serious government.
Absolutely scorching hot weather here in my largest village in the North west. Just been to vote and never seen anything like it, they were queuing outside. Normally, it's just one man and his dog. Lots of "oldies."
Same here, even in a very rainy and humid Kent. The infirm and disabled being gladly wheeled-in etc. A feeling of 'all hands to the pump'. Whether that's good for Leave or Remain, we shall see. Turnout will surely be above GE level.
I'm really confused. I've seen nothing today to change my view that this vote is on a knife-edge. Yet I come on here to find confident remained and wailing leavers. Bar the betting markets (who are almost probably as blind as we are, if not more), what has changed?
I've said it before and I'll say it again we NEED electoral reform after this. FPTP with the two big party system crushing the smaller parties is surely on it's last legs? The Tories are a coalition that is pulling apart and so are Labour, its ridiculous.
Fully agreed. Our politics is so personal and polarised it needs a radical shift like this to get away from swing voters in marginals and towards commanding public appeal and confidence.
Agreed, but it will only happen if the members of the Tory and Labour parties push for it to happen and it needs high profile MPs to do so too. That's not impossible, both parties have factions that are at each other's throats.
If PB is anything to go by - there's a significant number of homeless Tory types/others that are very unimpressed with Dave & George. Same elsewhere too.
Which is utterly bonkers, given that Dave got them the referendum they wanted.
Hopefully those who have lost their marbles over this will find them again in the next few months.
Richard, you really are going to have to learn that calling people racists, idiots and crazies will not endear you to your target.
I didn't want a referendum - we have bigger fish to fry. I'm glad I got one, but I'll give Cameron no credit for it - it was an act of pure political calculation in order to win an election.
He's given us a referendum and then told us there is only one answer, and done so in a way that has lost his credibility.
In other words you disagree with Cameron's position in the referendum (and, I suspect, resent his effectiveness). Fair enough. I disagree with Michael Gove on this. But I'm not going to lay into him, say he's 'lost all credibility', let alone go into a huff if he remains in a senior position or even becomes PM. Sane people can disagree on the balance of arguments in a complex issue like this which has multiple facets.
Great post, Im afraid all the Cameron haters are in disbelief at the polls. They were so looking forward to a Cameron slagging fest tomorrow.
Farage's poster was definitely a mistake in terms of trying to win over floating voters. I'm not sure what he was thinking when he commissioned it. Leave was doing very nicely in the polls at the time so it wasn't necessary to take a risk with it.
Farage was being a twat. If Leave loses, he gets the blame. The coincidence of THAT poster on the day Jo Cox was murdered caused the Leave bandwagon to come to a shuddering halt. Just so he could have his ME-ME-ME moment, having rightly been shunned as the Face of Brexit.
If PB is anything to go by - there's a significant number of homeless Tory types/others that are very unimpressed with Dave & George. Same elsewhere too.
Which is utterly bonkers, given that Dave got them the referendum they wanted.
Hopefully those who have lost their marbles over this will find them again in the next few months.
(Assuming a Remain win by a clear if close margin)
It will be Indyref all over again. The people that wanted the referendum will discredit the result while the people that didn't want a referendum in the first place are very satisfied with the result. Those that lost will claim a moral victory (we are the 45) and believe themselves to be more democratic, have a more positive outlook or be more in touch with ordinary people. Those that won will move on with lightning speed.
There will be a large pool of resentment, there will be constant talk about another referendum, but the chances of it happening are slim. That's partly because the EU will have more legitimacy than before (the people voted for it); because those in favour will be reluctant to potentially lose a second vote on the issue; because voters that aren't bought into the issue (the majority) will groan and punish those that propose going through the exercise again. A moderately Eurosceptic leader of the Conservative Party won't touch a second referendum with a bargepole.
If PB is anything to go by - there's a significant number of homeless Tory types/others that are very unimpressed with Dave & George. Same elsewhere too.
Which is utterly bonkers, given that Dave got them the referendum they wanted.
Hopefully those who have lost their marbles over this will find them again in the next few months.
I will second that! Over the last six years Cameron has delivered on the Libdems wish of a Referendum on our voting system, SNP demand for an Indy Ref, and now our first Referendum on our EU membership in forty years. The Conservative party has never been about one issue despite some of its members passionate dislike of our membership of the EU.
I've just taken out two bets on Betfair that I believe offer a reasonable risk/return - a combined bet 5 units on Remain > 52.5% @ 1.34 plus 11 units Remain <56.5% @ 1.48.
For a unit of £1 (total stake £16) this returns a profit of £6.98 if Remain score between 52.5% - 56.5%, a profit of 28p for any Remain result worse than 52.5%, and a loss of £9.30 for any Remain result above 56.5%.
The risk is that my own original forecast, to which I've held until recently, was Remain 57/43. But even I find it hard to see Remain winning by this much after the campaign.
edit/ even since I typed this post I see the odds have shifted further toward Remain, but the principle holds...
If PB is anything to go by - there's a significant number of homeless Tory types/others that are very unimpressed with Dave & George. Same elsewhere too.
Which is utterly bonkers, given that Dave got them the referendum they wanted.
Hopefully those who have lost their marbles over this will find them again in the next few months.
Richard, it isn't bonkers to be unhappy with Cameron if you are a Leave Tory. I am grateful that we finally got a referendum on Europe but it's clear from the tone Cameron has taken it wasn't granted out of the goodness of his heart or because he thought there was a worthwhile debate to be had. He probably never thought he'd have to do it as he wasn't expecting to win the GE (even on the night of the election itself).
He's campaigned robustly, which is his and Osborne's right and duty, but there are a lot of Tories who felt that the Conservative Party was the best vehicle for removing the UK from the EU and, when push came to shove, the Euro-sceptic rhetoric of Cameron, Osborne and others has been exposed as just that, rhetoric.
There's obviously a lot of anger on both sides of the Tory famly at the moment and much will cool over the next few weeks and months but the scars will still be there for decades to come and I, for one, and going to find it hard to vote for a Tory Party led by a Remainer. I probably will, as I've never voted anything else, but both sides are hurting.
Ukip might do well to get someone like Flynn as their leader rather than Farage. There are people who would be tempted to vote for them under a different leader.
I think Diane James would be their best bet.
Suzanne Evans is obviously the closest UKIP has to a media darling, but I think she's a bit too posh for UKIP's target audience.
Suzanne Evans is their best bet. Firstly, her work on the UKIP manifesto was top notch. Secondly, she is a good media performer. Thirdly, she will appeal to a very different demographic to Farage, who is more than a little marmite.
Suzanne Evans seems like a nice lady, but as I say everything about her accent and demeanour blares "middle-class typical Tory woman". I'm not sure that would peel off disaffected Labour voters in the north.
Ukip might do well to get someone like Flynn as their leader rather than Farage. There are people who would be tempted to vote for them under a different leader.
I think Diane James would be their best bet.
Suzanne Evans is obviously the closest UKIP has to a media darling, but I think she's a bit too posh for UKIP's target audience.
Suzanne Evans is their best bet. Firstly, her work on the UKIP manifesto was top notch. Secondly, she is a good media performer. Thirdly, she will appeal to a very different demographic to Farage, who is more than a little marmite.
Both are weak on TV though: 'This Week' for example. Woolfe is more fluid and eloquent.
Short-term political people get all righteously indignant about process, but ultimately it's not about process, it's about outcomes. The anti-EU people didn't want a referendum. They wanted to leave the EU.
They spent an awful lot of effort bitching about getting a referendum and criticising Cameron for not holding one earlier.
I suppose, to be fair, Nigel Farage at least did his utmost to prevent one, though.
Ukip might do well to get someone like Flynn as their leader rather than Farage. There are people who would be tempted to vote for them under a different leader.
I think Diane James would be their best bet.
Suzanne Evans is obviously the closest UKIP has to a media darling, but I think she's a bit too posh for UKIP's target audience.
Suzanne Evans is their best bet. Firstly, her work on the UKIP manifesto was top notch. Secondly, she is a good media performer. Thirdly, she will appeal to a very different demographic to Farage, who is more than a little marmite.
Suzanne Evans seems like a nice lady, but as I say everything about her accent and demeanour blares "middle-class typical Tory woman". I'm not sure that would peel off disaffected Labour voters in the north.
Maggie won three elections as a "middle-class typical Tory woman"!!!
If PB is anything to go by - there's a significant number of homeless Tory types/others that are very unimpressed with Dave & George. Same elsewhere too.
Which is utterly bonkers, given that Dave got them the referendum they wanted.
Hopefully those who have lost their marbles over this will find them again in the next few months.
What?! Given DC & GO have turned out to be treacherous turncoats, never! Those of us that want proper small gov/low tax policies are stuck with social democrats pretending to be Tory.
Surely this relates to those who gain opportunity from the EU.
Yes, it has nothing to do with how decent, or smart, or educated a person is. It really is as simple as dividing into those who feel they benefit and those who feel they lose out.
That may be true about the younger voters, but not for the majority of those of us richer in years. I know of no study that has looked at this, so I'll just report that all the pensioners I know now, plus my own family experience, are far more concerned about the future of their children and grandchildren than they are about themselves.
If I am right then if, as we are told, the elderly are predominantly for out then perhaps there is something to think about.
If PB is anything to go by - there's a significant number of homeless Tory types/others that are very unimpressed with Dave & George. Same elsewhere too.
Which is utterly bonkers, given that Dave got them the referendum they wanted.
Hopefully those who have lost their marbles over this will find them again in the next few months.
Richard, you really are going to have to learn that calling people racists, idiots and crazies will not endear you to your target.
I didn't want a referendum - we have bigger fish to fry. I'm glad I got one, but I'll give Cameron no credit for it - it was an act of pure political calculation in order to win an election.
He's given us a referendum and then told us there is only one answer, and done so in a way that has lost his credibility.
In other words you disagree with Cameron's position in the referendum (and, I suspect, resent his effectiveness). Fair enough. I disagree with Michael Gove on this, and I recognise that he's used some extremely dubious arguments. But I'm not going to lay into him, say he's 'lost all credibility', let alone go into a huff if he remains in a senior position or even becomes PM. Sane people can disagree on the balance of arguments in a complex issue like this which has multiple facets.
My goodness, you can't resist for even one post can you? I'll correct my position to 'lost all credibility with me'. You are welcome to continue believing that the sun shines out of his arse.
I generally don't go off in huffs, as I'm not actually fourteen.
Based on the apocalyptic forecasts we've had on here, Cameron was grossly irresponsible to offer a referendum that he could easily have lost, based on the prejudices of the poor, the ignorant and the racists.
if Leave do manage to somehow pull this off, the egg on faces is going to be huge, and the markets will be in chaos tomorrow
Funny you should say that...
"City banks - including UBS, HSBC, Morgan Stanley and Bank of America Merrill Lynch - have written to clients telling them to prepare for disruption once the EU referendum result is declared."
We have no one to blame but our selves. I don't blame Dave but won't vote Tory after this even if the margin is 55-45. Unless they have an outer as leader which they won't. And won't vote ukip whilst Nigel Farrage is leader. So have no one to vote for as all the others are europhiles. Oh well.
I don't think you're alone nunu. There are a fair few politically homeless people now.
If PB is anything to go by - there's a significant number of homeless Tory types/others that are very unimpressed with Dave & George. Same elsewhere too.
It ain't and there aren't.
Thank you for your deep insights into the Conservative Party. Been a member long?
If PB is anything to go by - there's a significant number of homeless Tory types/others that are very unimpressed with Dave & George. Same elsewhere too.
Which is utterly bonkers, given that Dave got them the referendum they wanted.
Hopefully those who have their marbles over this will find them again in the next few months.
Short-term political people get all righteously indignant about process, but ultimately it's not about process, it's about outcomes. The anti-EU people didn't want a referendum. They wanted to leave the EU.
Repeat of IndyRef. The agents for change don't see their referendum as a choice between two valid options. They see it as a mechanism that unlocks their preferred change. Therefore if you vote against change your choice must necessarily be invalid: you were fearful, misled or a traitor etc. Those that were opposed to change see a referendum as a false choice, but are happy to accept the result if it goes their way.
Now for the personal: I have found this the hardest choice at an election ever; much harder than even my first vote at the 1992 GE in Leyton and Wanstead. Both campaigns have been lacklustre, and the future direction of the country under both leave and remain muddy. A decision made harder by the fact that I have been trying to work out the best for my son whilst knowing that we might never get another bite at this cherry before he is an adult, if then.
As much as some might say it is an easy choice, and the case unarguable, it is not. If either of the campaigns had actually been competent then it might be another matter: but they were not.
So how did I vote? As I have said many times before I see leaving as inevitable in the medium- and long-term, and I'd rather it was done sooner than later. But I find it hard to countenance a non-EEA leave option, and that has not been placed on the table by the leave campaign. The government choosing an EEA route after the leave campaign's rejection of that route would be a betrayal of the voters.
People around me have not made the choice easier: staunch remainers (to the extent of having posters in their windows) use the staid old arguments such as 'the EU has kept peace', whilst the leavers have been solely mentioning immigration. No-one I've known has been as insightful as many of the comments on here.
I finally made my decision last night. Although I am not a Conservative, I am fairly small-c conservative and cautious. As such: although Remain have not persuaded me that the EU will not continue on the same slow road to integration, Leave had utterly failed to persuade me that the change they propose is better or wise. Whilst I had been falling off the fence towards Leave for a long time; the Leave campaign and some of the messages from its supporters have repulsed me much more than the Remain campaign.
As such, I have reluctantly chosen remain. My only hope is that my fears about the direction of the EU are unfounded.
I feel slightly dirty. But I fear not as dirty as if I had voted Leave.
Finally: thanks to David Cameron for giving me this opportunity to make a choice.
Thanks Josias, this could be helpful to me in making a final decision by 9:30 tonight.
Since it looks as if Remain will win, it's sensible to vote Leave.
Everyone still to vote who's undecided should vote Leave now, to compress the margin.
Now for the personal: I have found this the hardest choice at an election ever; much harder than even my first vote at the 1992 GE in Leyton and Wanstead. Both campaigns have been lacklustre, and the future direction of the country under both leave and remain muddy. A decision made harder by the fact that I have been trying to work out the best for my son whilst knowing that we might never get another bite at this cherry before he is an adult, if then.
As much as some might say it is an easy choice, and the case unarguable, it is not. If either of the campaigns had actually been competent then it might be another matter: but they were not.
So how did I vote? As I have said many times before I see leaving as inevitable in the medium- and long-term, and I'd rather it was done sooner than later. But I find it hard to countenance a non-EEA leave option, and that has not been placed on the table by the leave campaign. The government choosing an EEA route after the leave campaign's rejection of that route would be a betrayal of the voters.
People around me have not made the choice easier: staunch remainers (to the extent of having posters in their windows) use the staid old arguments such as 'the EU has kept peace', whilst the leavers have been solely mentioning immigration. No-one I've known has been as insightful as many of the comments on here.
I finally made my decision last night. Although I am not a Conservative, I am fairly small-c conservative and cautious. As such: although Remain have not persuaded me that the EU will not continue on the same slow road to integration, Leave had utterly failed to persuade me that the change they propose is better or wise. Whilst I had been falling off the fence towards Leave for a long time; the Leave campaign and some of the messages from its supporters have repulsed me much more than the Remain campaign.
As such, I have reluctantly chosen remain. My only hope is that my fears about the direction of the EU are unfounded.
I feel slightly dirty. But I fear not as dirty as if I had voted Leave.
Finally: thanks to David Cameron for giving me this opportunity to make a choice.
Thanks Josias, this could be helpful to me in making a final decision by 9:30 tonight.
Since it looks as if Remain will win, it's sensible to vote Leave.
No it isn't. You would not say that were the balance the other way around. Stop being disingenuous Sean – very unlike you!
Polling station was having a "lull" but one of the ladies handing out ballot papers said it had been the busiest she's ever seen it (and she's been doing this since the 1970 general election)
If PB is anything to go by - there's a significant number of homeless Tory types/others that are very unimpressed with Dave & George. Same elsewhere too.
Which is utterly bonkers, given that Dave got them the referendum they wanted.
Hopefully those who have lost their marbles over this will find them again in the next few months.
Richard, it isn't bonkers to be unhappy with Cameron if you are a Leave Tory. I am grateful that we finally got a referendum on Europe but it's clear from the tone Cameron has taken it wasn't granted out of the goodness of his heart or because he thought there was a worthwhile debate to be had. He probably never thought he'd have to do it as he wasn't expecting to win the GE (even on the night of the election itself).
He's campaigned robustly, which is his and Osborne's right and duty, but there are a lot of Tories who felt that the Conservative Party was the best vehicle for removing the UK from the EU and, when push came to shove, the Euro-sceptic rhetoric of Cameron, Osborne and others has been exposed as just that, rhetoric.
There's obviously a lot of anger on both sides of the Tory famly at the moment and much will cool over the next few weeks and months but the scars will still be there for decades to come and I, for one, and going to find it hard to vote for a Tory Party led by a Remainer. I probably will, as I've never voted anything else, but both sides are hurting.
As a non-Tory I agree that Dave's plan was:
a) to go into coalition and be 'persuaded' not to have the Referendum, or
b) to use the Referendum to lance the boil in the Tory Party once and for all and so cast his EU-obsessive wing into outer darkness
Of course he remembers all the damage the anti-EU Tories can do from his time as a SPAD during Maastricht.
So I can understand why some Tories aren't big Dave fans right now.
Personally I think both a) (best) and b) (worthwhile) were worth going for....
If PB is anything to go by - there's a significant number of homeless Tory types/others that are very unimpressed with Dave & George. Same elsewhere too.
Which is utterly bonkers, given that Dave got them the referendum they wanted.
Hopefully those who have lost their marbles over this will find them again in the next few months.
What?! Given DC & GO have turned out to be treacherous turncoats, never! Those of us that want proper small gov/low tax policies are stuck with social democrats pretending to be Tory.
How can you have small gov and low tax policies with an economy increasingly reliant on low skilled, low waged expansive insecure labour market that needs wages to be topped up by housing benefit and tax credits just to survive.
How can you have small gov and low tax policies with an ageing society and a publicly funded healthcare system open to all comers, British citizens, EU, non EU, its not possible!
Absolutely scorching hot weather here in my largest village in the North west. Just been to vote and never seen anything like it, they were queuing outside. Normally, it's just one man and his dog. Lots of "oldies."
A long term councillor once told me that the oldies tended to vote before 2pm. After that it was difficult to get them away from the afternoon tv and soaps.
Some investment banks and hedge funds have commissioned exit polls during the day today.
Sterlind has strengthened 1.1% so far today.
The FTSE 100 is up 1.15% so far today.
Ergo the vote is for REMAIN.
Junior posted yesterday (?) about such exit polls: no better than guesswork without the baseline polling station dataset that informs to GE exit polls.
Based on the apocalyptic forecasts we've had on here, Cameron was grossly irresponsible to offer a referendum that he could easily have lost, based on the prejudices of the poor, the ignorant and the racists.
No, he wasn't. He was being democratic. This is an issue which has to be resolved.
By tonight at 10pm, it will be resolved, although we won't know how for a few hours. Then the world will move on, and politicians and voters will worry about other things (Heathrow, for a starter!). Tempers will cool, it will all be ancient history soon.
Just like gay marriage, to take one example (an issue which I think actually caused more anger amongst some party members than the referendum has).
If PB is anything to go by - there's a significant number of homeless Tory types/others that are very unimpressed with Dave & George. Same elsewhere too.
Which is utterly bonkers, given that Dave got them the referendum they wanted.
Hopefully those who have lost their marbles over this will find them again in the next few months.
What?! Given DC & GO have turned out to be treacherous turncoats, never! Those of us that want proper small gov/low tax policies are stuck with social democrats pretending to be Tory.
I want a free owl. Sadly there is no longer a Party that wants to give me one.
So I will just have to compromise and vote for the party which most closely matches my wants. I remain disappointed of course that none of the parties has adopted my personal manifesto word for word.
Based on the apocalyptic forecasts we've had on here, Cameron was grossly irresponsible to offer a referendum that he could easily have lost, based on the prejudices of the poor, the ignorant and the racists.
No, he wasn't. He was being democratic. This is an issue which has to be resolved.
By tonight at 10pm, it will be resolved, although we won't know how for a few hours. Then the world will move on, and politicians and voters will worry about other things (Heathrow, for a starter!). Tempers will cool, it will all be ancient history soon.
Just like gay marriage, to take one example (an issue which I think actually caused more anger amongst some party members than the referendum has).
Do you genuinely believe he was honest when he said that all options would be considered, implying he would vote Leave if he didn't get what he want. Especially given what he said during the campaign.
Weren't we all predicting a hung parliament during lunchtime on Election Day?
But you can't have a hung referendum.
We could have an exact tie, though. 22,324,892 votes for leave, 22,324,892 votes for remain. That would be fun. Just think, we could do this all over again next month.
Completely OT, but I'm watching footage of the first test flight of that A350. All the people on board are wearing parachutes!! They can't have been that confident, LOL.
This is getting wonderfully off-topic, but I believe Boeing do the same for their first flights as well.
Allegedly, Boeing test pilots change into and out of their flight clothes and parachutes on board for PR reasons. Airbus (I don't know about Boeing) put escape hatches in the floor of their prototypes behind the nose landing gear!
Polling station was having a "lull" but one of the ladies handing out ballot papers said it had been the busiest she's ever seen it (and she's been doing this since the 1970 general election)
Weren't we all predicting a hung parliament during lunchtime on Election Day?
But you can't have a hung referendum.
We could have an exact tie, though. 22,324,892 votes for leave, 22,324,892 votes for remain. That would be fun. Just think, we could do this all over again next month.
Based on the apocalyptic forecasts we've had on here, Cameron was grossly irresponsible to offer a referendum that he could easily have lost, based on the prejudices of the poor, the ignorant and the racists.
No, he wasn't. He was being democratic. This is an issue which has to be resolved.
By tonight at 10pm, it will be resolved, although we won't know how for a few hours. Then the world will move on, and politicians and voters will worry about other things (Heathrow, for a starter!). Tempers will cool, it will all be ancient history soon.
Just like gay marriage, to take one example (an issue which I think actually caused more anger amongst some party members than the referendum has).
By tonight at 10pm, it will be resolved,
I doubt it. If anything this referendum has shown up divisions in the country that were previously papered over.
A 2:1 decision in either direction would resolve it, but I don't think we're going to get that. And the underlying issues are not going away, if anything they are likely to get worse.
Weren't we all predicting a hung parliament during lunchtime on Election Day?
But you can't have a hung referendum.
We could have an exact tie, though. 22,324,892 votes for leave, 22,324,892 votes for remain. That would be fun. Just think, we could do this all over again next month.
Some investment banks and hedge funds have commissioned exit polls during the day today.
Sterlind has strengthened 1.1% so far today.
The FTSE 100 is up 1.15% so far today.
Ergo the vote is for REMAIN.
Junior posted yesterday (?) about such exit polls: no better than guesswork without the baseline polling station dataset that informs to GE exit polls.
Which does rather beg the same question about opinion polls
Do you genuinely believe he was honest when he said that all options would be considered, implying he would vote Leave if he didn't get what he want. Especially given what he said during the campaign.
He always made it clear that he wanted the UK to remain in the EU, but the EU needed reform. I really don't see how anyone could possibly feel betrayed by this.
In any case, those who seem to think they were betrayed seem remarkably selective in their indignation. Shall I mention the word 'Boris', for example?
I'm really confused. I've seen nothing today to change my view that this vote is on a knife-edge. Yet I come on here to find confident remained and wailing leavers. Bar the betting markets (who are almost probably as blind as we are, if not more), what has changed?
The bottom line, if things turn out as the markets suggest (and if they don't I will have more than my share of egg on my face), is that it is a lot easier to whinge on about the EU and tell any passing pollster that you want to leave, than it is to go into a polling booth and actually vote to trash this country's economy and quite possibly set a ball rolling that wrecks the whole of Europe....
edit/ you will however notice that the multiple bet that I recommended down below hedges the possibility that I am seriously wrong in a Leave-direction in return for a big loss if Remain over-achieves...
Polling station was having a "lull" but one of the ladies handing out ballot papers said it had been the busiest she's ever seen it (and she's been doing this since the 1970 general election)
I can't believe people are coming out in droves to support a "remain" vote. But I just don't know.
Google trends data is a mismatch to the polling right now.....................
Comments
Declaration times to swing areas: The definitive guide to the EU referendum https://t.co/1wsX96aRA1 via @CityAM
https://t.co/YxyXfkdTQO https://t.co/Z8Gvrnk1v2
Unlike most of the people on here I don't "spin". I just post what I think.
People must vote for whatever they want. What I post here won't make any difference to anything anyway.
The UK population has risen by almost five million in the past 11 years https://t.co/0inOKzcrdt
I didn't want a referendum - we have bigger fish to fry. I'm glad I got one, but I'll give Cameron no credit for it - it was an act of pure political calculation in order to win an election.
He's given us a referendum and then told us there is only one answer, and done so in a way that has lost his credibility.
Suzanne Evans is obviously the closest UKIP has to a media darling, but I think she's a bit too posh for UKIP's target audience.
The idea of voting to make it close seems very risky to me.
Fascinating post by @nunu below - my impression was that Vote Leave were much more organised than they appeared, with better canvass data, and that it was all the parties doing their own work and street stalls etc that would mean not enough data for today - but I spent an hour running round with early morning targeted Remain leaflets so looks like I was wrong.
Welcome to new and returning posters - feels like something of a family reunion. Hope we are all still family this time tomorrow. Good luck to those who are heavily involved, I think I'm taking a relaxing evening before joining you later for the results.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/1330140/where-do-i-vote-could-175000-festival-goers-hold-key-to-knife-edge-eu-brexit-vote-as-revellers-turn-up-expecting-a-polling-station-on-site/
The man is a total tool.
It will be Indyref all over again. The people that wanted the referendum will discredit the result while the people that didn't want a referendum in the first place are very satisfied with the result. Those that lost will claim a moral victory (we are the 45) and believe themselves to be more democratic, have a more positive outlook or be more in touch with ordinary people. Those that won will move on with lightning speed.
There will be a large pool of resentment, there will be constant talk about another referendum, but the chances of it happening are slim. That's partly because the EU will have more legitimacy than before (the people voted for it); because those in favour will be reluctant to potentially lose a second vote on the issue; because voters that aren't bought into the issue (the majority) will groan and punish those that propose going through the exercise again. A moderately Eurosceptic leader of the Conservative Party won't touch a second referendum with a bargepole.
For a unit of £1 (total stake £16) this returns a profit of £6.98 if Remain score between 52.5% - 56.5%, a profit of 28p for any Remain result worse than 52.5%, and a loss of £9.30 for any Remain result above 56.5%.
The risk is that my own original forecast, to which I've held until recently, was Remain 57/43. But even I find it hard to see Remain winning by this much after the campaign.
edit/ even since I typed this post I see the odds have shifted further toward Remain, but the principle holds...
He's campaigned robustly, which is his and Osborne's right and duty, but there are a lot of Tories who felt that the Conservative Party was the best vehicle for removing the UK from the EU and, when push came to shove, the Euro-sceptic rhetoric of Cameron, Osborne and others has been exposed as just that, rhetoric.
There's obviously a lot of anger on both sides of the Tory famly at the moment and much will cool over the next few weeks and months but the scars will still be there for decades to come and I, for one, and going to find it hard to vote for a Tory Party led by a Remainer. I probably will, as I've never voted anything else, but both sides are hurting.
I suppose, to be fair, Nigel Farage at least did his utmost to prevent one, though.
To me, this sort of nonsense is totally counterproductive.
Sterlind has strengthened 1.1% so far today.
The FTSE 100 is up 1.15% so far today.
Ergo the vote is for REMAIN.
If I am right then if, as we are told, the elderly are predominantly for out then perhaps there is something to think about.
I generally don't go off in huffs, as I'm not actually fourteen.
Based on the apocalyptic forecasts we've had on here, Cameron was grossly irresponsible to offer a referendum that he could easily have lost, based on the prejudices of the poor, the ignorant and the racists.
"City banks - including UBS, HSBC, Morgan Stanley and Bank of America Merrill Lynch - have written to clients telling them to prepare for disruption once the EU referendum result is declared."
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/markets/article-3655935/Pound-hits-2106-high-against-dollar-traders-bet-Remain-banks-warn-result-paralyse-markets.html
Which do they think most people would prefer to watch?
http://www.raintoday.co.uk/
This is where the Nissan plant is situated. Turkeys voting for Christmas !
Anecdote alert:
Polling station was having a "lull" but one of the ladies handing out ballot papers said it had been the busiest she's ever seen it (and she's been doing this since the 1970 general election)
a) to go into coalition and be 'persuaded' not to have the Referendum, or
b) to use the Referendum to lance the boil in the Tory Party once and for all and so cast his EU-obsessive wing into outer darkness
Of course he remembers all the damage the anti-EU Tories can do from his time as a SPAD during Maastricht.
So I can understand why some Tories aren't big Dave fans right now.
Personally I think both a) (best) and b) (worthwhile) were worth going for....
How can you have small gov and low tax policies with an ageing society and a publicly funded healthcare system open to all comers, British citizens, EU, non EU, its not possible!
BTW my presentation was postponed till next week, thankfully
By tonight at 10pm, it will be resolved, although we won't know how for a few hours. Then the world will move on, and politicians and voters will worry about other things (Heathrow, for a starter!). Tempers will cool, it will all be ancient history soon.
Just like gay marriage, to take one example (an issue which I think actually caused more anger amongst some party members than the referendum has).
So I will just have to compromise and vote for the party which most closely matches my wants. I remain disappointed of course that none of the parties has adopted my personal manifesto word for word.
http://www.seattlepi.com/business/article/After-40-years-at-Boeing-chief-test-pilot-John-1225104.php#photo-673423
Allegedly, Boeing test pilots change into and out of their flight clothes and parachutes on board for PR reasons. Airbus (I don't know about Boeing) put escape hatches in the floor of their prototypes behind the nose landing gear!
By tonight at 10pm, it will be resolved,
I doubt it. If anything this referendum has shown up divisions in the country that were previously papered over.
A 2:1 decision in either direction would resolve it, but I don't think we're going to get that. And the underlying issues are not going away, if anything they are likely to get worse.
I've taken an elderly voter to the voting station, so he could vote Leave, he was so happy to have voted Leave.
Democracy is great.
Now, if you could perhaps take a few dozen more...
In any case, those who seem to think they were betrayed seem remarkably selective in their indignation. Shall I mention the word 'Boris', for example?
(though of course Ilford hasn't administratively been part of Essex since 1965...)
BTW nice one regarding your relative. I'm sure when you are older and wiser, you will also "be LEAVE"
edit/ you will however notice that the multiple bet that I recommended down below hedges the possibility that I am seriously wrong in a Leave-direction in return for a big loss if Remain over-achieves...
Google trends data is a mismatch to the polling right now.....................