I thought it worth posting why I voted Leave as it is probably against my financial self-interest (although @rcs1000 you'd better be wrong about London house prices!)
Fundamentally, I've become increasingly concerned about some of the gaps opening up in this country between those who are elected to govern, and the people who they ignore and leave behind. London has always had a distinct character, but over the last 20 years, this has become increasingly pronounced.
Inevitably this has dramatically influenced the way that politicians think - for good or ill - they spend most of their time in London. Moreover, they are disconnected from the stresses and strains of ordinary life; they don't have to worry about pensions, for example, in the way that ordinary people do. From the conservative party's perspective, it's been deeply disturbing the way that they have been entranced by the glamour of dealing with the CEOs of multinationals. The conservatives are - or should be - the party of the strivers, the workers, the people who want to better themselves; the small businessmen and women who make this country great. While it might be nice to hob nob with the international elite who run big companies, those people and organisations have no interest in what is good for the UK and will happily bend and exploit the rules to maximise the increase in their share price. (To be clear, one view of the world says that is acceptable. I personally believe that a healthy capitalist system is critical to long-term shareholder value - the MNCs are trading short term gain for long-term challenges).
It is this fault line in the country that needs to be addressed. Voting to Leave, was, for me, a way for the people of this country to show the Westminster clique who is in charge. It was a way to force them to be accountable for their actions. It was a way to make them think about what is right for all of the people of this country, not just to focus on the headline numbers and ignore those who get left behind.
We can, and should, be better than that as a party and as a country. The Conservatives used to be the party of the One Nation. They have forgotten how to do that - and I fear they have forgotten what it even means.
To lead is to serve. Our leaders need to be taught that they are not in charge. Vote Leave: take control.
I thought it worth posting why I voted Leave as it is probably against my financial self-interest (although @rcs1000 you'd better be wrong about London house prices!)
Fundamentally, I've become increasingly concerned about some of the gaps opening up in this country between those who are elected to govern, and the people who they ignore and leave behind. London has always had a distinct character, but over the last 20 years, this has become increasingly pronounced.
Inevitably this has dramatically influenced the way that politicians think - for good or ill - they spend most of their time in London. Moreover, they are disconnected from the stresses and strains of ordinary life; they don't have to worry about pensions, for example, in the way that ordinary people do. From the conservative party's perspective, it's been deeply disturbing the way that they have been entranced by the glamour of dealing with the CEOs of multinationals. The conservatives are - or should be - the party of the strivers, the workers, the people who want to better themselves; the small businessmen and women who make this country great. While it might be nice to hob nob with the international elite who run big companies, those people and organisations have no interest in what is good for the UK and will happily bend and exploit the rules to maximise the increase in their share price. (To be clear, one view of the world says that is acceptable. I personally believe that a healthy capitalist system is critical to long-term shareholder value - the MNCs are trading short term gain for long-term challenges).
It is this fault line in the country that needs to be addressed. Voting to Leave, was, for me, a way for the people of this country to show the Westminster clique who is in charge. It was a way to force them to be accountable for their actions. It was a way to make them think about what is right for all of the people of this country, not just to focus on the headline numbers and ignore those who get left behind.
We can, and should, be better than that as a party and as a country. The Conservatives used to be the party of the One Nation. They have forgotten how to do that - and I fear they have forgotten what it even means.
To lead is to serve. Our leaders need to be taught that they are not in charge. Vote Leave: take control.
Incidentally my exit poll experience shows, clearly, that exit polls are happening.
It must be those banks and hedge funds. They will be feeding the info back to HQ. So the markets are, presumably, already exhibiting some of the effects.
I hope they are polling places other than Primrose Hill!
The very definition of comfort polling! I expect El Presidente Juncker will be having a celebratory drink or 15 tonight
Incidentally my exit poll experience shows, clearly, that exit polls are happening.
It must be those banks and hedge funds. They will be feeding the info back to HQ. So the markets are, presumably, already exhibiting some of the effects.
You're sure that lady wasn't just telling for one of the campaigns?
She explicitly said "I'm doing an exit poll". I believed her. She was too young and naive to be that guileful.
Other than councillors, many activists don't actually understand what the point of telling is.
Maybe she is a teller that either doesn't herself understand the limited purpose of her role, or who got bored and decided to do her own poll!
If PB is anything to go by - there's a significant number of homeless Tory types/others that are very unimpressed with Dave & George. Same elsewhere too.
Which is utterly bonkers, given that Dave got them the referendum they wanted.
Hopefully those who have lost their marbles over this will find them again in the next few months.
Maybe some of them, but the Hardcore, they've hated Dave the day he became leader, he did not want to bang on about Europe.
It's been infuriating to listen them castigating him for everything he's done as if he could have done anything different that they would have been happy with.
It goes from people defending Trump or Putin rather than agree with Dave, or inventing bullshit reasons why they oppose gay equality. "It's not the time" "we should not be distracted, must focus on the recession" etc etc. When of course the changes required were almost cost free and required very little time in Parliament. Take minor reforms to Sunday trading laws and devolving the decision on them to local councils, just an excuse to attack, the same names involved again and again.
It's always been oppose first, then cobble together a reason.
Of course this will continue on with the right wanting to control the party and come in and do what differently? Apart from see Europe burn to the ground that is, be harsher, meaner harder on the poor? What do they actually want, do they really know anymore. I'm not sure they have any guiding principles anymore other than a hankering by some of them (luckily just not to many) to be more like the Republicans in the US and actually want to start their own version of the culture wars.
Anyway Dave is going one way or another, hopefully in 2019. It's all about the succession now.
Gove is too much the school SWOT, that even other SWOTS thought he was too uncool to hang around with. I liked him but he's gone down in my estimation for such enthusiastic deployment of blatant statistical lies. I thought he operated on a higher standard than others.
Boris the duplicitous little shit should not be let anywhere near it. Priti Patel is to harsh and I feel she feels contempt for the poor and those who don't succeed in life, no warmth whatsoever. A problem that Mr Osborne has though I'm sympathetic to his desire to build infrastructure.
Of the Old guard Ms May may do it, but might come across as a bit severe.
I have no opinion on Sajid, does he have a personality? I can't get a feel of him. Crabb seems interesting but he's only been around 5 minutes. I don't really no anyone else.
Theresa May is now clear favorite for next Tory leader on Betfair.
It must be those banks and hedge funds. They will be feeding the info back to HQ. So the markets are, presumably, already exhibiting some of the effects.
If they're basing their trades on polling data from Primrose Hill it explains a lot.
Some idiot trying to get the national picture from polling the leafy bits of London would be quite hilarious. Especially if they're gambling big on the result.
WOW! This is a great read and the case those on the Left should've made for Leave.
I am very sympathetic. The problem is, those people have no-one standing up for them. The remain establishment aren't interested, while the likes of Johnson, Gove and probably Farage want to get out of the EU because it fetters capitalism too much.
The left in Britain still hasn't grasped some basic truths that Germany's left understood 15 years ago. In a globalising world you can only protect wages by increasing the value added by labour, and holding down the cost of living does more for living standards than allowing wage inflation to take hold.
I agree with this and I would like David Cameron or his successor to think about how those left behind by globalisation can be supported. I think leaving the EU is offering false hope, by not tackling the real issues. Unfortunately I think Mr Cameron will be only too glad to move on.
Why unfortunately? If we can collectively stop wasting so much political energy on discussing whether we should be in or out of Europe then we would have more chance of identifying and solving the real issues. This, I believe, is the fundamental frustration that people like Cameron have with the hard-core Eurosceptics: It's just so much wasted time. Let's accept that we are in the EU to stay, and get on with it.
Incidentally my exit poll experience shows, clearly, that exit polls are happening.
It must be those banks and hedge funds. They will be feeding the info back to HQ. So the markets are, presumably, already exhibiting some of the effects.
You're sure that lady wasn't just telling for one of the campaigns?
She explicitly said "I'm doing an exit poll". I believed her. She was too young and naive to be that guileful.
Other than councillors, many activists don't actually understand what the point of telling is.
Maybe she is a teller that either doesn't herself understand the limited purpose of her role, or who got bored and decided to do her own poll!
Did the table your ballot box was sitting on have a table cloth over it? Secret compartment in the bottom of the ballot box....
"Ex-Hartlepool MP and former business secretary Peter Mandelson insisted there’ll be no “magic bullet” by leaving the European Union during a visit to Teesside.
Labour Peer Lord Mandelson – also a former trade and industry secretary and European trade commissioner – spoke to 400 delegates and guests at NEPIC's annual conference and exhibition at Wynyard Hall on Wednesday, attended by Tees Business.
He told firms from the region’s process and chemical industry that leaving the EU would be like leaving a members’ club – and turning our back on all the benefits that come with it.
“The European Union is a bit like a club, and it has very strong facilities,” said Lord Mandelson during a 20-minute speech."
When he says 'club' with 'facilities' I guess he doesn't mean a Working Men's Club with two full size snooker tables and a bar skittles table.
Two full size snooker tables
Two bars and a pool table at my one
my club has a billard room but no table. Does that count?
if Leave do manage to somehow pull this off, the egg on faces is going to be huge, and the markets will be in chaos tomorrow
Funny you should say that...
"City banks - including UBS, HSBC, Morgan Stanley and Bank of America Merrill Lynch - have written to clients telling them to prepare for disruption once the EU referendum result is declared."
Ha Ha Ha , that bunch of shysters could not run a bath
Wotcha, Mr. G., there are many topics that you and I disagree on, but on one I think we are united - the malignant effect of these international banks.
A few years ago Goldman Sachs was caught out selling an investment product that they themselves were betting against. How that company is still allowed to do business in the UK is beyond me. I read yesterday that the chap in charge of their division that was responsible for rigging the Greek figures that enabled them to supposedly qualify for admission to the Euro was none other than our present governor of the Bank of England.
We are told that unless we do what they say these crooks will feck off to Frankfurt or some where. As far as I am concerned they can feck off to wherever they like and feck up someone else's economy.
We need a banking sector, of course we do, but let us have one that is honest, not the bunch of crooks we seem to be stuck with.
The city boys have done their stuff, probably some slight correction. Doubt their is much to read into it. This morning it was clear there was something afoot as things moved rapidly.
I agree with almost all of that, Mr Charles. And the identification of government circles with big business was one of the reasons I too voted for Leave.
I think where you go wrong is to look back to some golden age when the Conservative Party was anything else. They sometimes pretended to be on the side of the "little people" - but that was always the territory of the Liberals.
Perhaps we are indeed on the point of seeing a major shake-up of the party political system?
It won't be long before there are more self-employed people than public sector employees. That represents a massive opportunity for a party prepared to be economically and socially liberal, and on the side of the relatively powerless.
Tabbers! Actual snogs and kisses!
How the devil are you?
I am basking in all this PB lurve!
Very good thanks - voting brisk here in the land of the Dark Blue Sc*m, with lots of In posters about.
I agree with almost all of that, Mr Charles. And the identification of government circles with big business was one of the reasons I too voted for Leave.
I think where you go wrong is to look back to some golden age when the Conservative Party was anything else. They sometimes pretended to be on the side of the "little people" - but that was always the territory of the Liberals.
Perhaps we are indeed on the point of seeing a major shake-up of the party political system?
It won't be long before there are more self-employed people than public sector employees. That represents a massive opportunity for a party prepared to be economically and socially liberal, and on the side of the relatively powerless.
Is that the same Tabman who was on this site in 2004?
"Today’s vote, although momentous and historic, won’t lead to anything very dramatic.
I have no idea which side will win. But one thing that seems clear is that it will be close. The losing side will represent a minority, but a large minority. In a democracy, large minorities can’t be ignored."
Encouraging for whom? That is a close as a concession-before-the-result comment from a politician as ever you are going to see...
For me.
If Leave loses, on the one hand the UK parties are going to at least try to suck up to the voters. And the party memberships now know the true positions of their MPs to EU membership.
He also mentions the effect the UK Referendum may have on other EU member states. If we vote Remain but another member state votes Leave (France? Holland?) Then the notion of associate membership may become concrete in a new treaty.
My experience today. Have an hours daily tube journey to Parsons Green SW6 from Walthamstow. Been there and back already. Have seen many hundreds of people wearing a Vote Remain or Im In sticker, but not a single one for leave. Just voted at about the same time as I did in the London Mayoral election. Today roughly half the names in my (small) street had a mark by them. In May I was the only one.
Wearing a Leave sticker in London probably wouldn't be a pleasant experience.
It would be the Conservative Party and it would be bang on the nation's sweet spot.
It should retain the assets of the old Conservative Party but it would need an element of re-branding.
It would get my vote.
I've been thinking about the possible realignment of politics a lot - hard to see how the Tories reunite after the bile and invective that's been thrown about (and as a Tory I know it's even worse behind closed doors than in public). How do associations unite around Remain MPs for example - I've heard my MP called a liar to his face at a party event.
The coalescing of a centrist party (made possible by the lurch of Labour to the left and the collapse of the Lib Dems who can't claim that ground for themselves) has appeal. But I keep coming back to this; political parties in this country are broad coalitions based on value systems - two Tories might arrive at very different policy positions on a subject but they usually share some similar values.
There are politicians on the left and in the centre; Liz Kendall, David Laws etc. who I would probably agree with on almost every policy position, but I don't share their values and they don't share mine - how could we exist as a political party?
Like a few others, I'm also taking this opportunity to delurk after many years of avidly reading PB. Thanks to all those who make this the most entertaining and informative political site there is.
I've voted Leave, largely despite the way in which the campaign has been conducted rather than because of it. I've mostly been a shy leaver, cautious about saying too much in public. Partly this is because my job requires me to continue to have a good relationship with lots of different people who might disagree with me! But partly it's also because the overwhelming majority of my (mostly professional, graduate, largely leftish-leaning) friends and acquaintances are virulently pro-Remain. My Facebook feed in particular has been almost entirely one-sided, which has rather dissuaded me from arguing my case too strongly.
Incidentally, here in my small town in the south west, the polling station has been busy all long. The weather is also good at the moment. So I'm not optimistic about the outcome but am hoping for a miracle. It would also be great if there could be some reconciliation after tomorrow as well, but I'm not particularly optimistic about that either. It does seem likely to me that there will be a significant UKIP surge if Remain wins.
I thought it worth posting why I voted Leave as it is probably against my financial self-interest (although @rcs1000 you'd better be wrong about London house prices!)
Fundamentally, I've become increasingly concerned about some of the gaps opening up in this country between those who are elected to govern, and the people who they ignore and leave behind. London has always had a distinct character, but over the last 20 years, this has become increasingly pronounced.
Inevitably this has dramatically influenced the way that politicians think - for good or ill - they spend most of their time in London. Moreover, they are disconnected from the stresses and strains of ordinary life; they don't have to worry about pensions, for example, in the way that ordinary people do. From the conservative party's perspective, it's been deeply disturbing the way that they have been entranced by the glamour of dealing with the CEOs of multinationals. The conservatives are - or should be - the party of the strivers, the workers, the people who want to better themselves; the small businessmen and women who make this country great. While it might be nice to hob nob with the international elite who run big companies, those people and organisations have no interest in what is good for the UK and will happily bend and exploit the rules to maximise the increase in their share price. (To be clear, one view of the world says that is acceptable. I personally believe that a healthy capitalist system is critical to long-term shareholder value - the MNCs are trading short term gain for long-term challenges).
It is this fault line in the country that needs to be addressed. Voting to Leave, was, for me, a way for the people of this country to show the Westminster clique who is in charge. It was a way to force them to be accountable for their actions. It was a way to make them think about what is right for all of the people of this country, not just to focus on the headline numbers and ignore those who get left behind.
We can, and should, be better than that as a party and as a country. The Conservatives used to be the party of the One Nation. They have forgotten how to do that - and I fear they have forgotten what it even means.
To lead is to serve. Our leaders need to be taught that they are not in charge. Vote Leave: take control.
Very good post. I don't agree with all of it, but I wish this case had been made in the campaign. Just as I wish we had heard more from the left on the issues identified by the Guardian writer who is voting no.
The one thing I think we all agree on here, is that the campaigns could have benefited massively from more light and less heat. Not the finest hour of politics in this country.
Birmingham also surprises me with 48-52 for Leave.
I think leave relying on cities like Birmingham should have rang alarm bells. A campaign based 80% on immigration is not going to win cities like Birmingham, Bradford which was also predicted to be narrowly leave. Its not that these places don't want controlled immigration they do, they are just not going to vote for a side that bangs on about that to the detriment of everything elese.
Another great post by you. In the final analysis, assuming a Remain victory, it will be the overplaying of the immigration card, and the idiocy of the hateful poster campaign that will be seen (rightly or wrongly) as the turning point. To think some on here defended it. It was a shameful, squalid campaign.
In your - relentless, relentless - view.
Both campaigns were squalid.
It's a minor challenge, but we really have to try and educate people what 'freedom of speech' means. I didn't like Farage's poster, as it failed to make its point well. But it's just a poster. As I've mentioned before, my two youngsters didn't get it all.
They didn't get any link to the iconic 'Britain isn't working' poster (which was my first thought), and the Nazis are about as real to them as the Tudors are. It's a classic storm in the media teacup.
However, you also have the right to call it squalid and shameful, so do carry on. Where we would differ is if you wanted to ban it.
If PB is anything to go by - there's a significant number of homeless Tory types/others that are very unimpressed with Dave & George. Same elsewhere too.
Which is utterly bonkers, given that Dave got them the referendum they wanted.
Hopefully those who have lost their marbles over this will find them again in the next few months.
It's always been oppose first, then cobble together a reason.
Of course this will continue on with the right wanting to control the party and come in and do what differently? Apart from see Europe burn to the ground that is, be harsher, meaner harder on the poor? What do they actually want, do they really know anymore. I'm not sure they have any guiding principles anymore other than a hankering by some of them (luckily just not to many) to be more like the Republicans in the US and actually want to start their own version of the culture wars.
Anyway Dave is going one way or another, hopefully in 2019. It's all about the succession now.
Gove is too much the school SWOT, that even other SWOTS thought he was too uncool to hang around with. I liked him but he's gone down in my estimation for such enthusiastic deployment of blatant statistical lies. I thought he operated on a higher standard than others.
Boris the duplicitous little shit should not be let anywhere near it. Priti Patel is to harsh and I feel she feels contempt for the poor and those who don't succeed in life, no warmth whatsoever. A problem that Mr Osborne has though I'm sympathetic to his desire to build infrastructure.
Of the Old guard Ms May may do it, but might come across as a bit severe.
I have no opinion on Sajid, does he have a personality? I can't get a feel of him. Crabb seems interesting but he's only been around 5 minutes. I don't really no anyone else.
Theresa May is now clear favorite for next Tory leader on Betfair.
I wouldn't mind her as leader she can reach across both LEAVE and REMAIN. One things clear, it will never be Osborne now.
Incidentally my exit poll experience shows, clearly, that exit polls are happening.
It must be those banks and hedge funds. They will be feeding the info back to HQ. So the markets are, presumably, already exhibiting some of the effects.
You're sure that lady wasn't just telling for one of the campaigns?
She explicitly said "I'm doing an exit poll". I believed her. She was too young and naive to be that guileful.
Welcome to all the old hands returning and especially to the lurkers delurking. Great to have your take on this not-many-times-in-a-lifetime event.
Absolutely. It's great to have more posters posting. Please all stay after the dust has settled.
If only we could have a few more retweeters on PB...
Part of the reason I rarely come here is the popularity of the site. When I first started posting back in 2004 (yes, really!) there were so few posters it was very easy to keep up with a thread and get a conversation flowing. It's almost impossible now with so many comments to get through.
Hi Tabbers: agreed, and I have felt pretty detached from UK politics for sometime. If these polls are right, it is a real kick in the teeth for the Murdoch-Mail-Desmond press, despite the slightly hedged bets from the ST and the Mail on Sunday. Maybe the public weakness of these propaganda sheets will move the idea of a genuine UK political realignment front and centre?
Like a few others, I'm also taking this opportunity to delurk after many years of avidly reading PB. Thanks to all those who make this the most entertaining and informative political site there is.
I've voted Leave, largely despite the way in which the campaign has been conducted rather than because of it. I've mostly been a shy leaver, cautious about saying too much in public. Partly this is because my job requires me to continue to have a good relationship with lots of different people who might disagree with me! But partly it's also because the overwhelming majority of my (mostly professional, graduate, largely leftish-leaning) friends and acquaintances are virulently pro-Remain. My Facebook feed in particular has been almost entirely one-sided, which has rather dissuaded me from arguing my case too strongly.
Incidentally, here in my small town in the south west, the polling station has been busy all long. The weather is also good at the moment. So I'm not optimistic about the outcome but am hoping for a miracle. It would also be great if there could be some reconciliation after tomorrow as well, but I'm not particularly optimistic about that either. It does seem likely to me that there will be a significant UKIP surge if Remain wins.
Welcome to PB, Ms Augustine. Lots of delurkers and old friends returning today
Thanks, Sandpit. Actually it's Mr!
Normally we get guesses wrong the other way! Welcome Mr Augustine.
I agree with almost all of that, Mr Charles. And the identification of government circles with big business was one of the reasons I too voted for Leave.
I think where you go wrong is to look back to some golden age when the Conservative Party was anything else. They sometimes pretended to be on the side of the "little people" - but that was always the territory of the Liberals.
Perhaps we are indeed on the point of seeing a major shake-up of the party political system?
It won't be long before there are more self-employed people than public sector employees. That represents a massive opportunity for a party prepared to be economically and socially liberal, and on the side of the relatively powerless.
Good point.
Dan H can be leader, and Charles can write the speeches. Sandpit and I will come up with the swift rebuttal department.
We might even let TSE in - after a Gaullist delay, of course.
If PB is anything to go by - there's a significant number of homeless Tory types/others that are very unimpressed with Dave & George. Same elsewhere too.
Which is utterly bonkers, given that Dave got them the referendum they wanted.
Hopefully those who have lost their marbles over this will find them again in the next few months.
Richard, you really are going to have to learn that calling people racists, idiots and crazies will not endear you to your target.
I didn't want a referendum - we have bigger fish to fry. I'm glad I got one, but I'll give Cameron no credit for it - it was an act of pure political calculation in order to win an election.
He's given us a referendum and then told us there is only one answer, and done so in a way that has lost his credibility.
In other words you disagree with Cameron's position in the referendum (and, I suspect, resent his effectiveness). Fair enough. I disagree with Michael Gove on this. But I'm not going to lay into him, say he's 'lost all credibility', let alone go into a huff if he remains in a senior position or even becomes PM. Sane people can disagree on the balance of arguments in a complex issue like this which has multiple facets.
Great post, Im afraid all the Cameron haters are in disbelief at the polls. They were so looking forward to a Cameron slagging fest tomorrow.
If there is a big 10% or more lead for Remain Cameron would have the power to purge all the eurosceptics and assorted right wing types and position the Tories as the real sensible centre party. Not saying he would, but he could. And if he did, it would make me a lot more likely to vote Tory at the next election.
I agree with almost all of that, Mr Charles. And the identification of government circles with big business was one of the reasons I too voted for Leave.
I think where you go wrong is to look back to some golden age when the Conservative Party was anything else. They sometimes pretended to be on the side of the "little people" - but that was always the territory of the Liberals.
Perhaps we are indeed on the point of seeing a major shake-up of the party political system?
It won't be long before there are more self-employed people than public sector employees. That represents a massive opportunity for a party prepared to be economically and socially liberal, and on the side of the relatively powerless.
Is that the same Tabman who was on this site in 2004?
The problem with referendum Exit polls, and the reason why John Curtice isn't doing one, is that ordinarily, over the course of several elections, you can compare patterns of turnout, and voting intention, at the same polling station. You can't do that here, which is why anyone would be mad to be trading on the basis of information derived from any such poll.
I thought it worth posting why I voted Leave as it is probably against my financial self-interest (although @rcs1000 you'd better be wrong about London house prices!)
Fundamentally, I've become increasingly concerned about some of the gaps opening up in this country between those who are elected to govern, and the people who they ignore and leave behind. London has always had a distinct character, but over the last 20 years, this has become increasingly pronounced.
We can, and should, be better than that as a party and as a country. The Conservatives used to be the party of the One Nation. They have forgotten how to do that - and I fear they have forgotten what it even means.
To lead is to serve. Our leaders need to be taught that they are not in charge. Vote Leave: take control.
Very good post. I don't agree with all of it, but I wish this case had been made in the campaign. Just as I wish we had heard more from the left on the issues identified by the Guardian writer who is voting no.
The one thing I think we all agree on here, is that the campaigns could have benefited massively from more light and less heat. Not the finest hour of politics in this country.
both sides are to blame but cameron started the whole mess in a tawdry & un prime-ministerial way. the two week pre campaign purdah during which he tried to manipulate the vote was awful. i've lots of friends who went from remain to leave because of cameron.
I agree with almost all of that, Mr Charles. And the identification of government circles with big business was one of the reasons I too voted for Leave.
I think where you go wrong is to look back to some golden age when the Conservative Party was anything else. They sometimes pretended to be on the side of the "little people" - but that was always the territory of the Liberals.
Perhaps we are indeed on the point of seeing a major shake-up of the party political system?
It won't be long before there are more self-employed people than public sector employees. That represents a massive opportunity for a party prepared to be economically and socially liberal, and on the side of the relatively powerless.
Good point.
Dan H can be leader, and Charles can write the speeches. Sandpit and I will come up with the swift rebuttal department.
We might even let TSE in - after a Gaullist delay, of course.
Why the blackballing against us working class Northeners?
I thought it worth posting why I voted Leave as it is probably against my financial self-interest (although @rcs1000 you'd better be wrong about London house prices!)
Fundamentally, I've become increasingly concerned about some of the gaps opening up in this country between those who are elected to govern, and the people who they ignore and leave behind. London has always had a distinct character, but over the last 20 years, this has become increasingly pronounced.
Inevitably this has dramatically influenced the way that politicians think - for good or ill - they spend most of their time in London. Moreover, they are disconnected from the stresses and strains of ordinary life; they don't have to worry about pensions, for example, in the way that ordinary people do. From the conservative party's perspective, it's been deeply disturbing the way that they have been entranced by the glamour of dealing with the CEOs of multinationals. The conservatives are - or should be - the party of the strivers, the workers, the people who want to better themselves; the small businessmen and women who make this country great. While it might be nice to hob nob with the international elite who run big companies, those people and organisations have no interest in what is good for the UK and will happily bend and exploit the rules to maximise the increase in their share price. (To be clear, one view of the world says that is acceptable. I personally believe that a healthy capitalist system is critical to long-term shareholder value - the MNCs are trading short term gain for long-term challenges).
It is this fault line in the country that needs to be addressed. Voting to Leave, was, for me, a way for the people of this country to show the Westminster clique who is in charge. It was a way to force them to be accountable for their actions. It was a way to make them think about what is right for all of the people of this country, not just to focus on the headline numbers and ignore those who get left behind.
We can, and should, be better than that as a party and as a country. The Conservatives used to be the party of the One Nation. They have forgotten how to do that - and I fear they have forgotten what it even means.
To lead is to serve. Our leaders need to be taught that they are not in charge. Vote Leave: take control.
My experience today. Have an hours daily tube journey to Parsons Green SW6 from Walthamstow. Been there and back already. Have seen many hundreds of people wearing a Vote Remain or Im In sticker, but not a single one for leave. Just voted at about the same time as I did in the London Mayoral election. Today roughly half the names in my (small) street had a mark by them. In May I was the only one.
Wearing a Leave sticker in London probably wouldn't be a pleasant experience.
You really believe that?
Well about a third of Londoners are going to vote Leave and yet people say they're invisible in the capital.
Incidentally my exit poll experience shows, clearly, that exit polls are happening.
It must be those banks and hedge funds. They will be feeding the info back to HQ. So the markets are, presumably, already exhibiting some of the effects.
I hope they are polling places other than Primrose Hill!
The very definition of comfort polling! I expect El Presidente Juncker will be having a celebratory drink or 15 tonight
Anyone doing an exit poll who sends someone to Primrose Hill seriously doesn't know what they are doing. Even if you try to cover a spread of strong-remain and strong-leave areas, you have a devil of a job with the weighting and your result depends more on your assumptions than the actual data. The only sensible approach is to find as many differing expected-50/50 areas as you can and then see what results you get.
It would be the Conservative Party and it would be bang on the nation's sweet spot.
It should retain the assets of the old Conservative Party but it would need an element of re-branding.
It would get my vote.
I've been thinking about the possible realignment of politics a lot - hard to see how the Tories reunite after the bile and invective that's been thrown about (and as a Tory I know it's even worse behind closed doors than in public). How do associations unite around Remain MPs for example - I've heard my MP called a liar to his face at a party event.
The coalescing of a centrist party (made possible by the lurch of Labour to the left and the collapse of the Lib Dems who can't claim that ground for themselves) has appeal. But I keep coming back to this; political parties in this country are broad coalitions based on value systems - two Tories might arrive at very different policy positions on a subject but they usually share some similar values.
There are politicians on the left and in the centre; Liz Kendall, David Laws etc. who I would probably agree with on almost every policy position, but I don't share their values and they don't share mine - how could we exist as a political party?
This basically comes down to tribalism. You identify with the Tory Tribe more than a coherent set of policy positions. However, it looks like it will come down to a bitter divorce - with both sides hanging onto the family home trying to prevent the other spouse changing the locks.
Sooner or later one side will need to bite the bullet and leave.
If PB is anything to go by - there's a significant number of homeless Tory types/others that are very unimpressed with Dave & George. Same elsewhere too.
Which is utterly bonkers, given that Dave got them the referendum they wanted.
Hopefully those who have lost their marbles over this will find them again in the next few months.
Maybe some of them, but the Hardcore, they've hated Dave the day he became leader, he did not want to bang on about Europe.
It's been infuriating to listen them castigating him for everything he's done as if he could have done anything different that they would have been happy with.
Of the Old guard Ms May may do it, but might come across as a bit severe.
I have no opinion on Sajid, does he have a personality? I can't get a feel of him. Crabb seems interesting but he's only been around 5 minutes. I don't really no anyone else.
Theresa May is now clear favorite for next Tory leader on Betfair.
Oh god, she's awful. Please not Theresa May. Yet I can see the logic...
Bojo has blown it, this time around, and probably forever. Gove Nope. Osborne no way, he's hated by too many MPs for The Bondage Budget, and is limitlessly unpopular in the country at large. Hammond and Sajid are busted.
If PB is anything to go by - there's a significant number of homeless Tory types/others that are very unimpressed with Dave & George. Same elsewhere too.
Which is utterly bonkers, given that Dave got them the referendum they wanted.
Hopefully those who have lost their marbles over this will find them again in the next few months.
Richard, you really are going to have to learn that calling people racists, idiots and crazies will not endear you to your target.
I didn't want a referendum - we have bigger fish to fry. I'm glad I got one, but I'll give Cameron no credit for it - it was an act of pure political calculation in order to win an election.
He's given us a referendum and then told us there is only one answer, and done so in a way that has lost his credibility.
In other words you disagree with Cameron's position in the referendum (and, I suspect, resent his effectiveness). Fair enough. I disagree with Michael Gove on this. But I'm not going to lay into him, say he's 'lost all credibility', let alone go into a huff if he remains in a senior position or even becomes PM. Sane people can disagree on the balance of arguments in a complex issue like this which has multiple facets.
Great post, Im afraid all the Cameron haters are in disbelief at the polls. They were so looking forward to a Cameron slagging fest tomorrow.
If there is a big 10% or more lead for Remain Cameron would have the power to purge all the eurosceptics and assorted right wing types and position the Tories as the real sensible centre party. Not saying he would, but he could. And if he did, it would make me a lot more likely to vote Tory at the next election.
55% Remain is not a big win.
The SNP would have taken a win by one vote.
As I've said passim, the future depends not just on which side wins or loses, but by how much. The closer it is, the more there will have to be give and take by both sides.
Farage, Johnson etc will only be writing two speeches. Cameron might have to write several.
Birmingham also surprises me with 48-52 for Leave.
I think leave relying on cities like Birmingham should have rang alarm bells. A campaign based 80% on immigration is not going to win cities like Birmingham, Bradford which was also predicted to be narrowly leave. Its not that these places don't want controlled immigration they do, they are just not going to vote for a side that bangs on about that to the detriment of everything elese.
Another great post by you. In the final analysis, assuming a Remain victory, it will be the overplaying of the immigration card, and the idiocy of the hateful poster campaign that will be seen (rightly or wrongly) as the turning point. To think some on here defended it. It was a shameful, squalid campaign.
In your - relentless, relentless - view.
Both campaigns were squalid.
Only one of the campaigns published a poster of people with dark faces in a queue, with the message Breaking Point over the top of it.
Hopefully Brendan and all those others on the right who are now so keen to empower the working class after supporting policies that do them active harm will start to advocate PR. It's the only thing that will make any practical difference as it will make working class votes important again.
Coming round to the idea.
I have come round after being the traditional Tory that was strongly for fptp.
Incidentally my exit poll experience shows, clearly, that exit polls are happening.
It must be those banks and hedge funds. They will be feeding the info back to HQ. So the markets are, presumably, already exhibiting some of the effects.
You're sure that lady wasn't just telling for one of the campaigns?
She explicitly said "I'm doing an exit poll". I believed her. She was too young and naive to be that guileful.
Other than councillors, many activists don't actually understand what the point of telling is.
Maybe she is a teller that either doesn't herself understand the limited purpose of her role, or who got bored and decided to do her own poll!
I've seen a lot of places that maintain full telling rotas but then don't do any GOTV work - it is extraordinary how few people understand how campaigns work. It's those people who think that canvassing is about persuading people to vote for you that always amuse me!
WOW! This is a great read and the case those on the Left should've made for Leave.
I am very sympathetic. The problem is, those people have no-one standing up for them. The remain establishment aren't interested, while the likes of Johnson, Gove and probably Farage want to get out of the EU because it fetters capitalism too much.
The left in Britain still hasn't grasped some basic truths that Germany's left understood 15 years ago. In a globalising world you can only protect wages by increasing the value added by labour, and holding down the cost of living does more for living standards than allowing wage inflation to take hold.
I agree with this and I would like David Cameron or his successor to think about how those left behind by globalisation can be supported. I think leaving the EU is offering false hope, by not tackling the real issues. Unfortunately I think Mr Cameron will be only too glad to move on.
Why unfortunately? If we can collectively stop wasting so much political energy on discussing whether we should be in or out of Europe then we would have more chance of identifying and solving the real issues. This, I believe, is the fundamental frustration that people like Cameron have with the hard-core Eurosceptics: It's just so much wasted time. Let's accept that we are in the EU to stay, and get on with it.
Why unfortunately? Because I think a large part of our population have been left behind by globalisation, of which the EU is a part, and which frankly is the only game in town. Fundamentally that is what this referendum is about. Leavers acknowledge the losers from globalisation but don't have any answers for them; remainers don't acknowledge there is a prroblem.
If PB is anything to go by - there's a significant number of homeless Tory types/others that are very unimpressed with Dave & George. Same elsewhere too.
Which is utterly bonkers, given that Dave got them the referendum they wanted.
Hopefully those who have lost their marbles over this will find them again in the next few months.
Maybe some of them, but the Hardcore, they've hated Dave the day he became leader, he did not want to bang on about Europe.
It's been infuriating to listen them castigating him for everything he's done as if he could have done anything different that they would have been happy with.
Of the Old guard Ms May may do it, but might come across as a bit severe.
I have no opinion on Sajid, does he have a personality? I can't get a feel of him. Crabb seems interesting but he's only been around 5 minutes. I don't really no anyone else.
Theresa May is now clear favorite for next Tory leader on Betfair.
Oh god, she's awful. Please not Theresa May. Yet I can see the logic...
Bojo has blown it, this time around, and probably forever. Gove Nope. Osborne no way, he's hated by too many MPs for The Bondage Budget, and is limitlessly unpopular in the country at large. Hammond and Sajid are busted.
A curious lack of talent suddenly emerges.
That's why you should look beyond the obvious candidates. They're all damaged goods to one extent or another.
Welcome to all the old hands returning and especially to the lurkers delurking. Great to have your take on this not-many-times-in-a-lifetime event.
Absolutely. It's great to have more posters posting. Please all stay after the dust has settled.
If only we could have a few more retweeters on PB...
Part of the reason I rarely come here is the popularity of the site. When I first started posting back in 2004 (yes, really!) there were so few posters it was very easy to keep up with a thread and get a conversation flowing. It's almost impossible now with so many comments to get through.
Hi Tabbers: agreed, and I have felt pretty detached from UK politics for sometime. If these polls are right, it is a real kick in the teeth for the Murdoch-Mail-Desmond press, despite the slightly hedged bets from the ST and the Mail on Sunday. Maybe the public weakness of these propaganda sheets will move the idea of a genuine UK political realignment front and centre?
Must catch up when next over in the yuck.
Deffo. It's nice to see so many old friends on here today.
Birmingham also surprises me with 48-52 for Leave.
I think leave relying on cities like Birmingham should have rang alarm bells. A campaign based 80% on immigration is not going to win cities like Birmingham, Bradford which was also predicted to be narrowly leave. Its not that these places don't want controlled immigration they do, they are just not going to vote for a side that bangs on about that to the detriment of everything elese.
Another great post by you. In the final analysis, assuming a Remain victory, it will be the overplaying of the immigration card, and the idiocy of the hateful poster campaign that will be seen (rightly or wrongly) as the turning point. To think some on here defended it. It was a shameful, squalid campaign.
In your - relentless, relentless - view.
Both campaigns were squalid.
Only one of the campaigns published a poster of people with dark faces in a queue, with the message Breaking Point over the top of it.
Actually, I can't be bothered to get into this. I repent.
Some investment banks and hedge funds have commissioned exit polls during the day today.
Sterlind has strengthened 1.1% so far today.
The FTSE 100 is up 1.15% so far today.
Ergo the vote is for REMAIN.
Talking of which, here's my experience
I voted in a leafy corner of Primrose Hill.
On the way out I was exit polled - yes! - by a pretty girl. I had a quick peek at her clipboard; it showed REMAIN outnumbering LEAVE by about four or five to one. Not unexpected in that neck of the woods. She said they'd been "quite busy", but she was barely 18 so possibly had nothing to judge it by.
Then on the way out I was interviewed by German radio, and I explained to the good people of Germany why I voted the way I did.
For the record, I summoned blood, stiffened sinews, and voted LEAVE, in full and stoical expectation of defeat. But also in happy anticipation of being able to blame quisling, treacherous REMAINIANS for every awful thing the EU does for the next 15 years.
And we will blame them. Oh yes, we will.
Chapeau old chap. I owe you an apology. I confidently predicted to m'daughter (who is a huge fan of your work) that you would buckle under the peer pressure. So sorry for doubting your intestinal fortitude.
You don't think @SeanT actually voted Leave do you?!
He..is..a..writer..of..fiction.
Of course it's a much better story to say he's voted Leave.
Actually, he voted Remain. I heard all about it on Deutschland FM.
Fundamentally, I've become increasingly concerned about some of the gaps opening up in this country between those who are elected to govern, and the people who they ignore and leave behind. London has always had a distinct character, but over the last 20 years, this has become increasingly pronounced. ...
[snip for brevity]
Excellent stuff, Charles, and a very articulate statement of why I support Cameron's politics, which is in the great tradition of one-nation Conservatism.
But how on earth do you get from that to wanting to risk trashing the economy by leaving the EU and supporting the more right-wing type of BOOer Tory? An utter logical disconnect, if you don't mind me saying so. I am completely baffled.
Incidentally my exit poll experience shows, clearly, that exit polls are happening.
It must be those banks and hedge funds. They will be feeding the info back to HQ. So the markets are, presumably, already exhibiting some of the effects.
I hope they are polling places other than Primrose Hill!
The very definition of comfort polling! I expect El Presidente Juncker will be having a celebratory drink or 15 tonight
Anyone doing an exit poll who sends someone to Primrose Hill seriously doesn't know what they are doing. Even if you try to cover a spread of strong-remain and strong-leave areas, you have a devil of a job with the weighting and your result depends more on your assumptions than the actual data. The only sensible approach is to find as many differing expected-50/50 areas as you can and then see what results you get.
It may be that SeanT's neighbours just want to get addresses of undesirables.
Hopefully Brendan and all those others on the right who are now so keen to empower the working class after supporting policies that do them active harm will start to advocate PR. It's the only thing that will make any practical difference as it will make working class votes important again.
Coming round to the idea.
I have come round after being the traditional Tory that was strongly for fptp.
In all seriousness, the only way to make working class votes really count is to change the voting system. All those who want forgotten voices to be heard have to engage with this.
If PB is anything to go by - there's a significant number of homeless Tory types/others that are very unimpressed with Dave & George. Same elsewhere too.
Which is utterly bonkers, given that Dave got them the referendum they wanted.
Hopefully those who have lost their marbles over this will find them again in the next few months.
Maybe some of them, but the Hardcore, they've hated Dave the day he became leader, he did not want to bang on about Europe.
It's been infuriating to listen them castigating him for everything he's done as if he could have done anything different that they would have been happy with.
Of the Old guard Ms May may do it, but might come across as a bit severe.
I have no opinion on Sajid, does he have a personality? I can't get a feel of him. Crabb seems interesting but he's only been around 5 minutes. I don't really no anyone else.
Theresa May is now clear favorite for next Tory leader on Betfair.
Oh god, she's awful. Please not Theresa May. Yet I can see the logic...
Bojo has blown it, this time around, and probably forever. Gove Nope. Osborne no way, he's hated by too many MPs for The Bondage Budget, and is limitlessly unpopular in the country at large. Hammond and Sajid are busted.
A curious lack of talent suddenly emerges.
Cameron really. And then, er.. well, um..
You do have to wonder why no party of any colour has anyone able to appeal to voters....
"Ex-Hartlepool MP and former business secretary Peter Mandelson insisted there’ll be no “magic bullet” by leaving the European Union during a visit to Teesside.
Labour Peer Lord Mandelson – also a former trade and industry secretary and European trade commissioner – spoke to 400 delegates and guests at NEPIC's annual conference and exhibition at Wynyard Hall on Wednesday, attended by Tees Business.
He told firms from the region’s process and chemical industry that leaving the EU would be like leaving a members’ club – and turning our back on all the benefits that come with it.
“The European Union is a bit like a club, and it has very strong facilities,” said Lord Mandelson during a 20-minute speech."
When he says 'club' with 'facilities' I guess he doesn't mean a Working Men's Club with two full size snooker tables and a bar skittles table.
Two full size snooker tables
Two bars and a pool table at my one
my club has a billard room but no table. Does that count?
Charles, I think your club is more the sort of place Mandy had in mind!
It would be the Conservative Party and it would be bang on the nation's sweet spot.
It should retain the assets of the old Conservative Party but it would need an element of re-branding.
It would get my vote.
I've been thinking about the possible realignment of politics a lot - hard to see how the Tories reunite after the bile and invective that's been thrown about (and as a Tory I know it's even worse behind closed doors than in public). How do associations unite around Remain MPs for example - I've heard my MP called a liar to his face at a party event.
The coalescing of a centrist party (made possible by the lurch of Labour to the left and the collapse of the Lib Dems who can't claim that ground for themselves) has appeal. But I keep coming back to this; political parties in this country are broad coalitions based on value systems - two Tories might arrive at very different policy positions on a subject but they usually share some similar values.
There are politicians on the left and in the centre; Liz Kendall, David Laws etc. who I would probably agree with on almost every policy position, but I don't share their values and they don't share mine - how could we exist as a political party?
This basically comes down to tribalism. You identify with the Tory Tribe more than a coherent set of policy positions. However, it looks like it will come down to a bitter divorce - with both sides hanging onto the family home trying to prevent the other spouse changing the locks.
Sooner or later one side will need to bite the bullet and leave.
I don't think it is (just) tribalism.
Rather than a divorce it might be more like when a rock band breaks up and then spends the next 15 years and every penny of royalties they ever earned fighting over who owns the name, only for one side to emerge victorious and realise that they're back catalogue has been deleted.
If PB is anything to go by - there's a significant number of homeless Tory types/others that are very unimpressed with Dave & George. Same elsewhere too.
.
Maybe some of them, but the Hardcore, they've hated Dave the day he became leader, he did not want to bang on about Europe.
It's been infuriating to listen them castigating him for everything he's done as if he could have done anything different that they would have been happy with.
It goes from people defending Trump or Putin rather than agree with Dave, or inventing bullshit reasons why they oppose gay equality. "It's not the time" "we should not be distracted, must focus on the recession" etc etc. When of course the changes required were almost cost free and required very little time in Parliament. Take minor reforms to Sunday trading laws and devolving the decision on them to local councils, just an excuse to attack, the same names involved again and again.
It's always been oppose first, then cobble together a reason.
Of course this will continue on with the right wanting to control the party and come in and do what differently? Apart from see Europe burn to the ground that is, be harsher, meaner harder on the poor? What do they actually want, do they really know anymore. I'm not sure they have any guiding principles anymore other than a hankering by some of them (luckily just not to many) to be more like the Republicans in the US and actually want to start their own version of the culture wars.
Anyway Dave is going one way or another, hopefully in 2019. It's all about the succession now.
Gove is too much the school SWOT, that even other SWOTS thought he was too uncool to hang around with. I liked him but he's gone down in my estimation for such enthusiastic deployment of blatant statistical lies. I thought he operated on a higher standard than others.
Boris the duplicitous little shit should not be let anywhere near it. Priti Patel is to harsh and I feel she feels contempt for the poor and those who don't succeed in life, no warmth whatsoever. A problem that Mr Osborne has though I'm sympathetic to his desire to build infrastructure.
Of the Old guard Ms May may do it, but might come across as a bit severe.
I have no opinion on Sajid, does he have a personality? I can't get a feel of him. Crabb seems interesting but he's only been around 5 minutes. I don't really no anyone else.
Theresa May is now clear favorite for next Tory leader on Betfair.
Hope everyone got on the 10/1. Or the 9s, 8s and 7s that were there earlier this week.
Hopefully Brendan and all those others on the right who are now so keen to empower the working class after supporting policies that do them active harm will start to advocate PR. It's the only thing that will make any practical difference as it will make working class votes important again.
Coming round to the idea.
I have come round after being the traditional Tory that was strongly for fptp.
In all seriousness, the only way to make working class votes really count is to change the voting system. All those who want forgotten voices to be heard have to engage with this.
Is there any evidence that introducing PR dramatically increases turnout at elections? I suppose it could be difficult to disentangle from the trend of decreasing participation in recent decades. I still prefer the constituency link...
Some investment banks and hedge funds have commissioned exit polls during the day today.
Sterlind has strengthened 1.1% so far today.
The FTSE 100 is up 1.15% so far today.
Ergo the vote is for REMAIN.
Talking of which, here's my experience
I voted in a leafy corner of Primrose Hill.
On the way out I was exit polled - yes! - by a pretty girl. I had a quick peek at her clipboard; it showed REMAIN outnumbering LEAVE by about four or five to one. Not unexpected in that neck of the woods. She said they'd been "quite busy", but she was barely 18 so possibly had nothing to judge it by.
Then on the way out I was interviewed by German radio, and I explained to the good people of Germany why I voted the way I did.
For the record, I summoned blood, stiffened sinews, and voted LEAVE, in full and stoical expectation of defeat. But also in happy anticipation of being able to blame quisling, treacherous REMAINIANS for every awful thing the EU does for the next 15 years.
And we will blame them. Oh yes, we will.
Chapeau old chap. I owe you an apology. I confidently predicted to m'daughter (who is a huge fan of your work) that you would buckle under the peer pressure. So sorry for doubting your intestinal fortitude.
You don't think @SeanT actually voted Leave do you?!
He..is..a..writer..of..fiction.
Of course it's a much better story to say he's voted Leave.
Actually, he voted Remain. I heard all about it on Deutschland FM.
Sean is an English gentleman. A gentleman's word is his bond. I would never doubt him. Of course, if it ever came out that he had suffered a momentary lapse of candour, it would, of course, have to be the the glass of whisky, the revolver and a significant nod towards the PB library.
"Ex-Hartlepool MP and former business secretary Peter Mandelson insisted there’ll be no “magic bullet” by leaving the European Union during a visit to Teesside.
Labour Peer Lord Mandelson – also a former trade and industry secretary and European trade commissioner – spoke to 400 delegates and guests at NEPIC's annual conference and exhibition at Wynyard Hall on Wednesday, attended by Tees Business.
He told firms from the region’s process and chemical industry that leaving the EU would be like leaving a members’ club – and turning our back on all the benefits that come with it.
“The European Union is a bit like a club, and it has very strong facilities,” said Lord Mandelson during a 20-minute speech."
When he says 'club' with 'facilities' I guess he doesn't mean a Working Men's Club with two full size snooker tables and a bar skittles table.
Two full size snooker tables
Two bars and a pool table at my one
my club has a billard room but no table. Does that count?
Charles, I think your club is more the sort of place Mandy had in mind!
The Carlton turned it's snooker room into a "business suite". Just one of the reasons I left...
Good poll for remain. Bend over because we are about to get the dockside hooker treatment from Junker and pals.
Oh and there will never be another referendum. The EU will make absolutely certain of that and very very quickly.
If we do get the "dockside hooker" treatment (and I'm not convinced), then we might not need another referendum - a general election may sort it.
It's conceivable that we could get Remain on a high turnout and with demonstrably >50% in favour, and a subsequent general election in which Leave parties or supporters "win" on a lower turnout under FPTP so with <50%, and then attempt to leave.
WOW! This is a great read and the case those on the Left should've made for Leave.
I am very sympathetic. The problem is, those people have no-one standing up for them. The remain establishment aren't interested, while the likes of Johnson, Gove and probably Farage want to get out of the EU because it fetters capitalism too much.
The left in Britain still hasn't grasped some basic truths that Germany's left understood 15 years ago. In a globalising world you can only protect wages by increasing the value added by labour, and holding down the cost of living does more for living standards than allowing wage inflation to take hold.
I agree with this and I would like David Cameron or his successor to think about how those left behind by globalisation can be supported. I think leaving the EU is offering false hope, by not tackling the real issues. Unfortunately I think Mr Cameron will be only too glad to move on.
Why unfortunately? If we can collectively stop wasting so much political energy on discussing whether we should be in or out of Europe then we would have more chance of identifying and solving the real issues. This, I believe, is the fundamental frustration that people like Cameron have with the hard-core Eurosceptics: It's just so much wasted time. Let's accept that we are in the EU to stay, and get on with it.
We have been getting on with it for forty odd years. That is the problem.
Lolz if it is 55 vs 45 Mirror of indyref, the conspiracy theories will be off the chart
What exactly do you mean by conspiracy theories? A £9 million taxpayer funded document was produced, the voter registration period was extended for 2 days to cover for two hours, the PM did use his office (oh, minus crest) to campaign for Remain during the purdah period. These aren't conspiracy theories, they're conspiracy facts.
Incidentally my exit poll experience shows, clearly, that exit polls are happening.
It must be those banks and hedge funds. They will be feeding the info back to HQ. So the markets are, presumably, already exhibiting some of the effects.
I hope they are polling places other than Primrose Hill!
The very definition of comfort polling! I expect El Presidente Juncker will be having a celebratory drink or 15 tonight
Anyone doing an exit poll who sends someone to Primrose Hill seriously doesn't know what they are doing. Even if you try to cover a spread of strong-remain and strong-leave areas, you have a devil of a job with the weighting and your result depends more on your assumptions than the actual data. The only sensible approach is to find as many differing expected-50/50 areas as you can and then see what results you get.
It may be that SeanT's neighbours just want to get addresses of undesirables.
Alternatively a random pretty girl saw famous "Primrose Hill Borders" thriller writer S K Tremayne hoving into view, and took her one chance to actually talk to him, and maybe flirt with him, by pretending she was doing "an exit poll".
The city boys have done their stuff, probably some slight correction. Doubt their is much to read into it. This morning it was clear there was something afoot as things moved rapidly.
Possibly. Both the FTSE and the £ are now trending steadily lower, and the spread betting site I am using is getting extremely laggy, suggesting that the volume of trading is a lot higher now than this morning,...
"With the size of counting areas varying dramatically, there are some results which are a lot more important than others. For instance, Birmingham accounts for 1.5 per cent of all voters and is expected to be one of the closest-run races of the night. Its results will be out at 4am and could be one of the biggest events of the whole evening."
Some investment banks and hedge funds have commissioned exit polls during the day today.
Sterlind has strengthened 1.1% so far today.
The FTSE 100 is up 1.15% so far today.
Ergo the vote is for REMAIN.
Talking of which, here's my experience
I voted in a leafy corner of Primrose Hill.
On the way out I was exit polled - yes! - by a pretty girl. I had a quick peek at her clipboard; it showed REMAIN outnumbering LEAVE by about four or five to one. Not unexpected in that neck of the woods. She said they'd been "quite busy", but she was barely 18 so possibly had nothing to judge it by.
Then on the way out I was interviewed by German radio, and I explained to the good people of Germany why I voted the way I did.
For the record, I summoned blood, stiffened sinews, and voted LEAVE, in full and stoical expectation of defeat. But also in happy anticipation of being able to blame quisling, treacherous REMAINIANS for every awful thing the EU does for the next 15 years.
And we will blame them. Oh yes, we will.
Chapeau old chap. I owe you an apology. I confidently predicted to m'daughter (who is a huge fan of your work) that you would buckle under the peer pressure. So sorry for doubting your intestinal fortitude.
You don't think @SeanT actually voted Leave do you?!
He..is..a..writer..of..fiction.
Of course it's a much better story to say he's voted Leave.
Actually, he voted Remain. I heard all about it on Deutschland FM.
Sean is an English gentleman. A gentleman's word is his bond. I would never doubt him. Of course, if it ever came out that he had suffered a momentary lapse of candour, it would, of course, have to be the the glass of whisky, the revolver and a significant nod towards the PB library.
If PB is anything to go by - there's a significant number of homeless Tory types/others that are very unimpressed with Dave & George. Same elsewhere too.
Which is utterly bonkers, given that Dave got them the referendum they wanted.
Hopefully those who have lost their marbles over this will find them again in the next few months.
Maybe some of them, but the Hardcore, they've hated Dave the day he became leader, he did not want to bang on about Europe.
It's been infuriating to listen them castigating him for everything he's done as if he could have done anything different that they would have been happy with.
Of the Old guard Ms May may do it, but might come across as a bit severe.
I have no opinion on Sajid, does he have a personality? I can't get a feel of him. Crabb seems interesting but he's only been around 5 minutes. I don't really no anyone else.
Theresa May is now clear favorite for next Tory leader on Betfair.
Oh god, she's awful. Please not Theresa May. Yet I can see the logic...
Bojo has blown it, this time around, and probably forever. Gove Nope. Osborne no way, he's hated by too many MPs for The Bondage Budget, and is limitlessly unpopular in the country at large. Hammond and Sajid are busted.
A curious lack of talent suddenly emerges.
Cameron really. And then, er.. well, um..
You do have to wonder why no party of any colour has anyone able to appeal to voters....
Because no sensible person would condemn themselves to a political life. If you become an MP you are, by definition, strange.
WOW! This is a great read and the case those on the Left should've made for Leave.
I am very sympathetic. The problem is, those people have no-one standing up for them. The remain establishment aren't interested, while the likes of Johnson, Gove and probably Farage want to get out of the EU because it fetters capitalism too much.
The left in Britain still hasn't grasped some basic truths that Germany's left understood 15 years ago. In a globalising world you can only protect wages by increasing the value added by labour, and holding down the cost of living does more for living standards than allowing wage inflation to take hold.
I agree with this and I would like David Cameron or his successor to think about how those left behind by globalisation can be supported. I think leaving the EU is offering false hope, by not tackling the real issues. Unfortunately I think Mr Cameron will be only too glad to move on.
"I would like David Cameron or his successor to think about how those left behind by globalisation can be supported." So would I - since I have become one of them.
Lolz if it is 55 vs 45 Mirror of indyref, the conspiracy theories will be off the chart
What exactly do you mean by conspiracy theories? A £9 million taxpayer funded document was produced, the voter registration period was extended for 2 days to cover for two hours, the PM did use his office (oh, minus crest) to campaign for Remain during the purdah period. These aren't conspiracy theories, they're conspiracy facts.
Comments
Probably just heard Sean's interview on German radio.
I expect El Presidente Juncker will be having a celebratory drink or 15 tonight
aww bless. it's quite sweet really.
Merkel laughed him out of town and then he still went out to bat like Chris Tavare for Brussels.
If you can't see why that wouldn't peeve a sizeable majority then - shrugs..
A few years ago Goldman Sachs was caught out selling an investment product that they themselves were betting against. How that company is still allowed to do business in the UK is beyond me. I read yesterday that the chap in charge of their division that was responsible for rigging the Greek figures that enabled them to supposedly qualify for admission to the Euro was none other than our present governor of the Bank of England.
We are told that unless we do what they say these crooks will feck off to Frankfurt or some where. As far as I am concerned they can feck off to wherever they like and feck up someone else's economy.
We need a banking sector, of course we do, but let us have one that is honest, not the bunch of crooks we seem to be stuck with.
Very good thanks - voting brisk here in the land of the Dark Blue Sc*m, with lots of In posters about.
If Leave loses, on the one hand the UK parties are going to at least try to suck up to the voters. And the party memberships now know the true positions of their MPs to EU membership.
He also mentions the effect the UK Referendum may have on other EU member states. If we vote Remain but another member state votes Leave (France? Holland?) Then the notion of associate membership may become concrete in a new treaty.
The coalescing of a centrist party (made possible by the lurch of Labour to the left and the collapse of the Lib Dems who can't claim that ground for themselves) has appeal. But I keep coming back to this; political parties in this country are broad coalitions based on value systems - two Tories might arrive at very different policy positions on a subject but they usually share some similar values.
There are politicians on the left and in the centre; Liz Kendall, David Laws etc. who I would probably agree with on almost every policy position, but I don't share their values and they don't share mine - how could we exist as a political party?
They didn't get any link to the iconic 'Britain isn't working' poster (which was my first thought), and the Nazis are about as real to them as the Tudors are. It's a classic storm in the media teacup.
However, you also have the right to call it squalid and shameful, so do carry on. Where we would differ is if you wanted to ban it.
Must catch up when next over in the yuck.
Yeah right...Jo Coxgasm supporters have more or less implied that anybody that votes leave is a racist.
Sooner or later one side will need to bite the bullet and leave.
As I've said passim, the future depends not just on which side wins or loses, but by how much. The closer it is, the more there will have to be give and take by both sides.
Farage, Johnson etc will only be writing two speeches. Cameron might have to write several.
The almighty, it seems, is a leaver
As provincial Labour as you'll ever find.
He..is..a..writer..of..fiction.
Of course it's a much better story to say he's voted Leave.
Actually, he voted Remain. I heard all about it on Deutschland FM.
But how on earth do you get from that to wanting to risk trashing the economy by leaving the EU and supporting the more right-wing type of BOOer Tory? An utter logical disconnect, if you don't mind me saying so. I am completely baffled.
It's a circular vortex.
Rather than a divorce it might be more like when a rock band breaks up and then spends the next 15 years and every penny of royalties they ever earned fighting over who owns the name, only for one side to emerge victorious and realise that they're back catalogue has been deleted.
LOL.
Expect people on the streets if that's the case.
http://www.cityam.com/243872/eu-referendum-most-important-results-watch
You'd have thought Remain would win easily in Birmingham,
So would I - since I have become one of them.