politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The referendum: The affluent versus the non-affluent summed
Comments
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@britainelects: EU referendum poll:
Remain: 53%
Leave: 47%
(via NatCen / online & phone)
Four week survey period.
Excluding DKs.
https://t.co/QVwBRscRUZ0 -
That's a pretty good performance by Remain, almost Anschluss levels of enthusiasm!TheScreamingEagles said:The NatCen poll has Remain 53 Remain 47
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Four week period. Kinda useless....Scott_P said:@britainelects: EU referendum poll:
Remain: 53%
Leave: 47%
(via NatCen / online & phone)
Four week survey period.
Excluding DKs.
https://t.co/QVwBRscRUZ0 -
Typo fixed now0
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Anecdote time - student placement chap at work applied for a postal vote just before the deadline, hasn't received his ballot yet.0
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I think there is an ending coming to the Conservative Party. Just think of the numbers of Conservative-voting authorities that will vote Leave on Thursday.Alanbrooke said:
Whatever the result Mr F the referendum has just reinforced my view that there are a large block of people for whom the current political structures provide no representation.Sean_F said:
Of course. I was feeling depressed when I posted that.Casino_Royale said:
Why not the slightest doubt? Surely, there's always some doubt.Sean_F said:
Anecdotes are interesting, but there's not the slightest doubt that Remain will win this now.EPG said:
I bet people who know, much less marry, PBers are going to be more inclined to LEAVE than crude demography would suggest.OllyT said:
I was just thinking exactly that - particularly as every Leave vote that has been the subject of an anecdote has been a "surprise" as the poster would have expected them to vote Remain. Don't know why we are waiting till Friday to get the result really.midwinter said:
If the anecdotal evidence from here is a quarter way accurate Remain will do well to poll in the high teens.....EPG said:
Most of the anecdotes come from active campaigners for LEAVE, experiencing the natural politeness of the great English public; almost all come from their sympathisers.peter_from_putney said:Unless I'm very much mistaken, I would say that the anecdotal evidence offered on this site to date strongly favours LEAVE, paricularly with reference to large numbers of voters, eg the Nissan workforce vs a few dozen people in North London.
But then again, these are random reports, completely unsubstatiated and unweighted and although interesting, have about the same value as yesterday's fish and chips wrapping.
I think we can run close, but not reach 50%+.
It has all the feel of an ancien regime about to crumble. Certainly on the right there are lots of voters who now wont vote Conservative again. They have to go somewhere, time for a change.0 -
They only polled two voters. A Mr D. Cameron and Mr G. Osborne. Both live in a little terraced street in London. :-)TheScreamingEagles said:The NatCen poll has Remain 53 Remain 47
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I believe that for these games, the England players are paid nothing. (They do get a payment from the FA but they have an agreement that it all goes to charity).Big_G_NorthWales said:How much are these England players paid - their ball control is dreadful
One might imagine you get what you pay for.0 -
LOLRoyalBlue said:
That's a pretty good performance by Remain, almost Anschluss levels of enthusiasm!TheScreamingEagles said:The NatCen poll has Remain 53 Remain 47
Ok, in this case clearly I will accept the Establishment has done some rigging.0 -
Who?TheScreamingEagles said:The NatCen poll
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ffS, we end up on the halfway line from or own corner. Shite....0
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Rooney taking throw ins now0
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Can only assume "Nat Central".. so Wings over Somerset.GIN1138 said:
Who?TheScreamingEagles said:The NatCen poll
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Canvassing experience, I wouldn't be surprised to see some shy leavers in tonight's polls.
Granted this was West Yorkshire, but there's some Leavers who are very shy and reticent to tell people they are Leavers.0 -
SmoothTheScreamingEagles said:Typo fixed now
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Got to ask. Whilst it is probably in line with expectations and I wouldn't have been surprised if it had been a snapshot from the last few days, what the hell is the point of a 4 week polling period when things are changing so quickly?Scott_P said:@britainelects: EU referendum poll:
Remain: 53%
Leave: 47%
(via NatCen / online & phone)
Four week survey period.
Excluding DKs.
https://t.co/QVwBRscRUZ0 -
Meh.RobD said:
Four week period. Kinda useless....Scott_P said:@britainelects: EU referendum poll:
Remain: 53%
Leave: 47%
(via NatCen / online & phone)
Four week survey period.
Excluding DKs.
https://t.co/QVwBRscRUZ0 -
4 week period??Scott_P said:@britainelects: EU referendum poll:
Remain: 53%
Leave: 47%
(via NatCen / online & phone)
Four week survey period.
Excluding DKs.
https://t.co/QVwBRscRUZ0 -
Plenty time yet. This is the late goal tournament.MarqueeMark said:ffS, we end up on the halfway line from or own corner. Shite....
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Do you count me as one of them ?TheScreamingEagles said:Canvassing experience, I wouldn't be surprised to see some shy leavers in tonight's polls.
Granted this was West Yorkshire, but there's some Leavers who are very shy and reticent to tell people they are Leavers.0 -
Four week survey period? What's the point of that in such a fast moving campaign?Scott_P said:@britainelects: EU referendum poll:
Remain: 53%
Leave: 47%
(via NatCen / online & phone)
Four week survey period.
Excluding DKs.
https://t.co/QVwBRscRUZ0 -
You can't blame them...TheScreamingEagles said:Canvassing experience, I wouldn't be surprised to see some shy leavers in tonight's polls.
Granted this was West Yorkshire, but there's some Leavers who are very shy and reticent to tell people they are Leavers. 0 -
That's a very fair post.YBarddCwsc said:
Although I think Remain are now favourites, there seem to me to be two loopholes.Sean_F said:
Of course. I was feeling depressed when I posted that.Casino_Royale said:
Why not the slightest doubt? Surely, there's always some doubt.Sean_F said:
Anecdotes are interesting, but there's not the slightest doubt that Remain will win this now.EPG said:
I bet people who know, much less marry, PBers are going to be more inclined to LEAVE than crude demography would suggest.OllyT said:
I was just thinking exactly that - particularly as every Leave vote that has been the subject of an anecdote has been a "surprise" as the poster would have expected them to vote Remain. Don't know why we are waiting till Friday to get the result really.midwinter said:
If the anecdotal evidence from here is a quarter way accurate Remain will do well to poll in the high teens.....EPG said:
Most of the anecdotes come from active campaigners for LEAVE, experiencing the natural politeness of the great English public; almost all come from their sympathisers.peter_from_putney said:Unless I'm very much mistaken, I would say that the anecdotal evidence offered on this site to date strongly favours LEAVE, paricularly with reference to large numbers of voters, eg the Nissan workforce vs a few dozen people in North London.
But then again, these are random reports, completely unsubstatiated and unweighted and although interesting, have about the same value as yesterday's fish and chips wrapping.
I think we can run close, but not reach 50%+.
First, the polls may not be accurate enough to measure the difference between Remain and Leave in such a close race. The variations in the strengths of the two sides with geography & the lack of back history of voting make this difficult to poll. I would agree with rcs1000 that the underlying picture could still be 55/45 to either side, and the polls will report 50/50 (to within moe).
Second, there is still time for one further twist. A gaffe, a blunder or another black swan.
To cheer you up, news from Cymru Cymraeg and friends in Plaid Cymru suggest that they having the same difficulty as Welsh Labour in persuading their supporters to do what the Party Leadership is telling them, I expect all of Wales bar Cardiff to vote Leave.
We could all be hugely out on this.0 -
*Cough*HurstLlama said:
That I think is spot on, Mr. B. Not only former Conservative voters either. Up the road from me is a post war council estate where a year or so back I did some work, on behalf of Mid-Sussex Council, trying to get people to register to vote. "Why should I bother nobody gives a feck about us" was the most common response, and I have to say that they had a point.Alanbrooke said:
Whatever the result Mr F the referendum has just reinforced my view that there are a large block of people for whom the current political structures provide no representation.
It has all the feel of an ancien regime about to crumble. Certainly on the right there are lots of voters who now wont vote Conservative again. They have to go somewhere, time for a change.
For example, at the time I was doing that work the more than adequate street lighting in my cul de sac was being upgraded because it did not comply to some new standard. Yet the street lighting on the Estate was so inadequate that in some parts it did not exist. It still has not been improved.
There are lots and lots of people who feel that the political parties do not represent them, that they are forgotten and do not matter. In such circumstances the "extremist" parties will prosper. I note that no one on here today has mentioned the new Mayoress of Rome.
Where do you live? I live in Mid Sussex....0 -
Very good!bigjohnowls said:
Confiscated by StewardsBig_G_NorthWales said:England's match is like watching paint dry - where is the flair
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National Centre Social Research.GIN1138 said:
Who?TheScreamingEagles said:The NatCen poll
Professor John Curtice rates them, that's good enough for me.
IIRC their polls for the GE they got the results right, they are very good in getting represenatitve samples0 -
Quality over quantity, perhaps they've taken their time to get a better sample?Richard_Tyndall said:
Got to ask. Whilst it is probably in line with expectations and I wouldn't have been surprised if it had been a snapshot from the last few days, what the hell is the point of a 4 week polling period when things are changing so quickly?Scott_P said:@britainelects: EU referendum poll:
Remain: 53%
Leave: 47%
(via NatCen / online & phone)
Four week survey period.
Excluding DKs.
https://t.co/QVwBRscRUZ0 -
That's something else they got so right in Game of Thrones.kle4 said:
I don't know how anyone ever survived medieval battles.Lowlander said:
It is probably the most realistic portrayal of medieval combat ever committed to film or television. Absolutely phenomenally done, it still had the odd bit of purely cinematic content but the heart of it was entirely realistic.kle4 said:
Some brutal stuff in it - not your typical glamour shots.Pulpstar said:Even if you don't follow the series, make an effort to watch Game of Thrones season 6 Episode 9 (The last one)
The cinematography is stunning.
Basically, regardless of how skilled you were, or how well trained you were, once you were in melee combat in an open battle (before or after it turned into a pushing contest, which almost all of them were) you only survived based on luck.
You are more likely to die from suffocation or drowning and just as likely to die from someone on your own side as you were from an enemy weapon.
Of course very few battles featured open combat, it was all close combat in drilled formations. Again something Game of Thrones got spot on in this episode (albeit only for one side, while the other ended up as you would expect an undrilled, partisan army).0 -
Every man's nightmare.NickPalmer said:
4 week period??Scott_P said:@britainelects: EU referendum poll:
Remain: 53%
Leave: 47%
(via NatCen / online & phone)
Four week survey period.
Excluding DKs.
https://t.co/QVwBRscRUZ0 -
Surely everyone woman's nightmare?OUT said:
Every man's nightmare.NickPalmer said:
4 week period??Scott_P said:@britainelects: EU referendum poll:
Remain: 53%
Leave: 47%
(via NatCen / online & phone)
Four week survey period.
Excluding DKs.
https://t.co/QVwBRscRUZ0 -
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/744992476629508100TheScreamingEagles said:The NatCen poll has Remain 53 Leave- 47
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Yup.Alanbrooke said:
Do you count me as one of them ?TheScreamingEagles said:Canvassing experience, I wouldn't be surprised to see some shy leavers in tonight's polls.
Granted this was West Yorkshire, but there's some Leavers who are very shy and reticent to tell people they are Leavers.0 -
Another thing to add is the huge pressure on pollsters this time. Not just professionally, in terms of reputation, but the fact their polls may move markets and cost/make people billions.Tim said:
This is totally true. So much sense in this post.YBarddCwsc said:
Although I think Remain are now favourites, there seem to me to be two loopholes.Sean_F said:
Of course. I was feeling depressed when I posted that.Casino_Royale said:
Why not the slightest doubt? Surely, there's always some doubt.Sean_F said:
Anecdotes are interesting, but there's not the slightest doubt that Remain will win this now.EPG said:
I bet people who know, much less marry, PBers are going to be more inclined to LEAVE than crude demography would suggest.OllyT said:
I was just thinking exactly that - particularly as every Leave vote that has been the subject of an anecdote has been a "surprise" as the poster would have expected them to vote Remain. Don't know why we are waiting till Friday to get the result really.midwinter said:
If the anecdotal evidence from here is a quarter way accurate Remain will do well to poll in the high teens.....EPG said:
Most of the anecdotes come from active campaigners for LEAVE, experiencing the natural politeness of the great English public; almost all come from their sympathisers.peter_from_putney said:Unless I'm very much mistaken, I would say that the anecdotal evidence offered on this site to date strongly favours LEAVE, paricularly with reference to large numbers of voters, eg the Nissan workforce vs a few dozen people in North London.
But then again, these are random reports, completely unsubstatiated and unweighted and although interesting, have about the same value as yesterday's fish and chips wrapping.
I think we can run close, but not reach 50%+.
First, the polls may not be accurate enough to measure the difference between Remain and Leave in such a close race. The variations in the strengths of the two sides with geography & the lack of back history of voting make this difficult to poll. I would agree with rcs1000 that the underlying picture could still be 55/45 to either side, and the polls will report 50/50 (to within moe).
I'm not sure I'd judge that pressure worth it. I can perfectly understand why ICM folded early.0 -
Why is everyone so convinced the polls are going to show Remain ahead?
Is it just as assumption because of Farage and Jo Cox's murder or is there more to it?0 -
FWIWGIN1138 said:
You can't blame them...TheScreamingEagles said:Canvassing experience, I wouldn't be surprised to see some shy leavers in tonight's polls.
Granted this was West Yorkshire, but there's some Leavers who are very shy and reticent to tell people they are Leavers.
Everything has changed sine the MP was murdered.. Leave are fecked.. Whether Leave are racist or xenophobic or not, they will be seen as so by many and Remain will win.0 -
Oh!TheScreamingEagles said:
National Centre Social Research.GIN1138 said:
Who?TheScreamingEagles said:The NatCen poll
Professor John Curtice rates them, that's good enough for me.
IIRC their polls for the GE they got the results right, they are very good in getting represenatitve samples
So that's one down. ORB and YouGov still to go?0 -
Shocked by this I tell you, SHOCKED
Vote Leave board member quits over anti-Muslim retweets
Businesswoman Arabella Arkwright resigns after Guardian asked her about activity on her social media account
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/20/vote-leave-board-member-quits-over-anti-muslim-retweets0 -
That'smuch closer than I thought it would beTheScreamingEagles said:
National Centre Social Research.GIN1138 said:
Who?TheScreamingEagles said:The NatCen poll
Professor John Curtice rates them, that's good enough for me.
IIRC their polls for the GE they got the results right, they are very good in getting represenatitve samples0 -
Suits me, whoever they are. The lead is little more than margin of error stuff and if it stops the city panicing before the vote even better.TheScreamingEagles said:The NatCen poll has Remain 53 Leave- 47
The people of England minus London wont let us down.0 -
Argh, feck.TheScreamingEagles said:The NatCen poll has Remain 53 Leave- 47
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In for a penny...TheScreamingEagles said:Shocked by this I tell you, SHOCKED
Vote Leave board member quits over anti-Muslim retweets
Businesswoman Arabella Arkwright resigns after Guardian asked her about activity on her social media account
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/20/vote-leave-board-member-quits-over-anti-muslim-retweets0 -
No, it's just you they don't want to talk to. They all tell Gillian they're leaveTheScreamingEagles said:Canvassing experience, I wouldn't be surprised to see some shy leavers in tonight's polls.
Granted this was West Yorkshire, but there's some Leavers who are very shy and reticent to tell people they are Leavers. 0 -
They do the British social attitudes survey with, I think 3000 targets who are selected at random and are hunted down for responses. Polling companies use it as a reference for their weighting strategies as they can't afford that kind of rigour.GIN1138 said:
Who?TheScreamingEagles said:The NatCen poll
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Many thought they would pull back in the final week regardless. It'll turn back.Philip_Thompson said:Why is everyone so convinced the polls are going to show Remain ahead?
Is it just as assumption because of Farage and Jo Cox's murder or is there more to it?0 -
Depends if you believe that campaigns really change anything, or whether they ultimately serve to reinforce underlying voting intention ie. people will be given arguments/propaganda from both sides and ultimately will get attracted to the messages that reinforce how they were always intending to vote.Gravitation said:
Four week survey period? What's the point of that in such a fast moving campaign?Scott_P said:@britainelects: EU referendum poll:
Remain: 53%
Leave: 47%
(via NatCen / online & phone)
Four week survey period.
Excluding DKs.
https://t.co/QVwBRscRUZ0 -
While the second one is pretty tasteless, I think it is legitimate to point out that a lot of the refugees to the EU have mostly been young male economic migrants, rather than those who actually need it.TheScreamingEagles said:Shocked by this I tell you, SHOCKED
Vote Leave board member quits over anti-Muslim retweets
Businesswoman Arabella Arkwright resigns after Guardian asked her about activity on her social media account
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/20/vote-leave-board-member-quits-over-anti-muslim-retweets0 -
53:47
Trouble is if its taken them four weeks to do it, some of the views will be out of date.0 -
And of course you will do your best to promote that view I am sure.SquareRoot said:
FWIWGIN1138 said:
You can't blame them...TheScreamingEagles said:Canvassing experience, I wouldn't be surprised to see some shy leavers in tonight's polls.
Granted this was West Yorkshire, but there's some Leavers who are very shy and reticent to tell people they are Leavers.
Everything has changed sine the MP was murdered.. Leave are fecked.. Whether Leave are racist or xenophobic or not, they will be seen as so by many and Remain will win.0 -
@rosschawkins: Wales: not only did you make history, English fans had to sit through the England game.0
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So Leave do just about everything they shouldnt do and theres still only 6 points in it ?TheScreamingEagles said:Shocked by this I tell you, SHOCKED
Vote Leave board member quits over anti-Muslim retweets
Businesswoman Arabella Arkwright resigns after Guardian asked her about activity on her social media account
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/20/vote-leave-board-member-quits-over-anti-muslim-retweets
Remains campaign must be pure horseshit.0 -
No they won't but they will be outvoted by the people of London, Scotland and NIPaul_Bedfordshire said:
Suits me, whoever they are. The lead is little more than margin of error stuff and if it stops the city panicing before the vote even better.TheScreamingEagles said:The NatCen poll has Remain 53 Leave- 47
The people of England minus London wont let us down.0 -
Excellent battle scene. Meereen is fun too. But (in contrast to her book persona) Sansa is a duplicitous shit.Lowlander said:
That's something else they got so right in Game of Thrones.kle4 said:
I don't know how anyone ever survived medieval battles.Lowlander said:
It is probably the most realistic portrayal of medieval combat ever committed to film or television. Absolutely phenomenally done, it still had the odd bit of purely cinematic content but the heart of it was entirely realistic.kle4 said:
Some brutal stuff in it - not your typical glamour shots.Pulpstar said:Even if you don't follow the series, make an effort to watch Game of Thrones season 6 Episode 9 (The last one)
The cinematography is stunning.
Basically, regardless of how skilled you were, or how well trained you were, once you were in melee combat in an open battle (before or after it turned into a pushing contest, which almost all of them were) you only survived based on luck.
You are more likely to die from suffocation or drowning and just as likely to die from someone on your own side as you were from an enemy weapon.
Of course very few battles featured open combat, it was all close combat in drilled formations. Again something Game of Thrones got spot on in this episode (albeit only for one side, while the other ended up as you would expect an undrilled, partisan army).0 -
People have predicted the end of the party since RC emancipation in the 1829! Life and the party goes on.Sean_F said:
I think there is an ending coming to the Conservative Party. Just think of the numbers of Conservative-voting authorities that will vote Leave on Thursday.Alanbrooke said:
Whatever the result Mr F the referendum has just reinforced my view that there are a large block of people for whom the current political structures provide no representation.Sean_F said:
Of course. I was feeling depressed when I posted that.Casino_Royale said:
Why not the slightest doubt? Surely, there's always some doubt.Sean_F said:
Anecdotes are interesting, but there's not the slightest doubt that Remain will win this now.EPG said:
I bet people who know, much less marry, PBers are going to be more inclined to LEAVE than crude demography would suggest.OllyT said:
I was just thinking exactly that - particularly as every Leave vote that has been the subject of an anecdote has been a "surprise" as the poster would have expected them to vote Remain. Don't know why we are waiting till Friday to get the result really.midwinter said:
If the anecdotal evidence from here is a quarter way accurate Remain will do well to poll in the high teens.....EPG said:
Most of the anecdotes come from active campaigners for LEAVE, experiencing the natural politeness of the great English public; almost all come from their sympathisers.peter_from_putney said:Unless I'm very much mistaken, I would say that the anecdotal evidence offered on this site to date strongly favours LEAVE, paricularly with reference to large numbers of voters, eg the Nissan workforce vs a few dozen people in North London.
But then again, these are random reports, completely unsubstatiated and unweighted and although interesting, have about the same value as yesterday's fish and chips wrapping.
I think we can run close, but not reach 50%+.
It has all the feel of an ancien regime about to crumble. Certainly on the right there are lots of voters who now wont vote Conservative again. They have to go somewhere, time for a change.0 -
Wales top the group, England probably go through second0
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Nahh.. I post very infrequently these days , I just call it as I see it.Richard_Tyndall said:
And of course you will do your best to promote that view I am sure.SquareRoot said:
FWIWGIN1138 said:
You can't blame them...TheScreamingEagles said:Canvassing experience, I wouldn't be surprised to see some shy leavers in tonight's polls.
Granted this was West Yorkshire, but there's some Leavers who are very shy and reticent to tell people they are Leavers.
Everything has changed sine the MP was murdered.. Leave are fecked.. Whether Leave are racist or xenophobic or not, they will be seen as so by many and Remain will win.0 -
No spurs full backs = no width0
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Wales looked really good again today and I think they only need more confidence in their own abilities to do really, really well (maybe Croatia 1998 well - or, maybe even Greece 2004/Denmark 1992 well).
If they can lose the lack of confidence and tendency to sit in once ahead, they can do a lot of damage to anyone.0 -
On the other hand it should be accurate on the sampling, which is not at all certain for the other polls.FrankBooth said:53:47
Trouble is if its taken them four weeks to do it, some of the views will be out of date.0 -
" They hunt them down"?FF43 said:
They do the British social attitudes survey with, I think 3000 targets who are selected at random and are hunted down for responses. Polling companies use it as a reference for their weighting strategies as they can't afford that kind of rigour.GIN1138 said:
Who?TheScreamingEagles said:The NatCen poll
0 -
@britainelects: EU referendum poll:
Remain: 53% (+5)
Leave: 46% (-3)
(via ORB, phone / )
Certain to vote.0 -
Have faith!Casino_Royale said:
Argh, feck.TheScreamingEagles said:The NatCen poll has Remain 53 Leave- 47
Even a superb sample will not allow for 1) shy Leavers 2) a more proletarian turnout than expected 3) better Leave scores for the over 75s (have any pollsters bothered to make sure their 65+ sub samples are properly weighted?)0 -
England has just given Europe the worst game of the Championships.
It had all the hallmarks of Hodgson not having a fecking clue what his best team is....0 -
Gah!0
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England vs Wales final nailed on.
0 -
@Coral: Wales:
- Top of their group.
- Top tournament goalscorers (6).
- Top tournament goalscorer (Bale).
#WAL https://t.co/FmkBSiOZCq0 -
Britain Elects @britainelects 2m2 minutes ago
EU referendum poll:
Remain: 53% (+5)
Leave: 46% (-3)
(via ORB, phone / )
Certain to vote.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/7449958954108928000 -
My only consolation from the football is that Russia are going home in disgrace.0
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Glad I didn't miss the England game. Wow!0
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EU referendum poll:
Remain: 53% (+5)
Leave: 46% (-3)
(via ORB, phone / )
Certain to vote.0 -
I thought Sophie Turner was amazing in the final scene. The way she played it, the move to look away then look back and the smirk as she left was superb. It does suggest that she was the perfect casting if the new X-Men do Dark Phoenix (which they are supposed to be doing).Sean_F said:
Excellent battle scene. Meereen is fun too. But (in contrast to her book persona) Sansa is a duplicitous shit.Lowlander said:
That's something else they got so right in Game of Thrones.
Basically, regardless of how skilled you were, or how well trained you were, once you were in melee combat in an open battle (before or after it turned into a pushing contest, which almost all of them were) you only survived based on luck.
You are more likely to die from suffocation or drowning and just as likely to die from someone on your own side as you were from an enemy weapon.
Of course very few battles featured open combat, it was all close combat in drilled formations. Again something Game of Thrones got spot on in this episode (albeit only for one side, while the other ended up as you would expect an undrilled, partisan army).0 -
Almost certainly game, set and match.HYUFD said:Britain Elects @britainelects 2m2 minutes ago
EU referendum poll:
Remain: 53% (+5)
Leave: 46% (-3)
(via ORB, phone / )
Certain to vote.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/7449958954108928000 -
Low turnout students could cost this for remain if its a lead of 51-49% to remain on the day.SandyRentool said:Anecdote time - student placement chap at work applied for a postal vote just before the deadline, hasn't received his ballot yet.
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0
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But hey - we are both through! Result!!0
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Is ORB the new Gold Standard?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Platinum standard, please!foxinsoxuk said:
Is ORB the new Gold Standard?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
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I think things have been said throughout this campaign which are hard to unsay. One group of Conservatives think the other are effete Metroplitan snobs. The other think their opponents are bigots with blood on their hands.felix said:
People have predicted the end of the party since RC emancipation in the 1829! Life and the party goes on.Sean_F said:
I think there is an ending coming to the Conservative Party. Just think of the numbers of Conservative-voting authorities that will vote Leave on Thursday.Alanbrooke said:
Whatever the result Mr F the referendum has just reinforced my view that there are a large block of people for whom the current political structures provide no representation.Sean_F said:
Of course. I was feeling depressed when I posted that.Casino_Royale said:
Why not the slightest doubt? Surely, there's always some doubt.Sean_F said:
Anecdotes are interesting, but there's not the slightest doubt that Remain will win this now.EPG said:
I bet people who know, much less marry, PBers are going to be more inclined to LEAVE than crude demography would suggest.OllyT said:
I was just thinking exactly that - particularly as every Leave vote that has been the subject of an anecdote has been a "surprise" as the poster would have expected them to vote Remain. Don't know why we are waiting till Friday to get the result really.midwinter said:
If the anecdotal evidence from here is a quarter way accurate Remain will do well to poll in the high teens.....EPG said:
Most of the anecdotes come from active campaigners for LEAVE, experiencing the natural politeness of the great English public; almost all come from their sympathisers.peter_from_putney said:Unless I'm very much mistaken, I would say that the anecdotal evidence offered on this site to date strongly favours LEAVE, paricularly with reference to large numbers of voters, eg the Nissan workforce vs a few dozen people in North London.
But then again, these are random reports, completely unsubstatiated and unweighted and although interesting, have about the same value as yesterday's fish and chips wrapping.
I think we can run close, but not reach 50%+.
It has all the feel of an ancien regime about to crumble. Certainly on the right there are lots of voters who now wont vote Conservative again. They have to go somewhere, time for a change.0 -
Remain should win this now, though probably not by as much as No in Scotland the question is really about the margin, it no longer looks neck and neck. Still, 3 days to goTheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Many, me including me, called it for Leave when they got a confluence of great polls. Now, that's because I never learn not to overreact, but I shall try, and so not now call it for Remain based of a series of good polls.
Demographics, message, passion, all favour Leave.0 -
All we've got to cling to is that another polling disaster is upon us. Not much but after the strange things that happened with the polls on the Eve of the 2015 general election, who knows...Chameleon said:
Almost certainly game, set and match.HYUFD said:Britain Elects @britainelects 2m2 minutes ago
EU referendum poll:
Remain: 53% (+5)
Leave: 46% (-3)
(via ORB, phone / )
Certain to vote.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/7449958954108928000 -
Two extra days off before the R16 game, I think (Monday night instead of Saturday afternoon for Wales as group winner).0
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No idea.foxinsoxuk said:
Is ORB the new Gold Standard?TheScreamingEagles said:
Did anyone get the result of the last GE right to within a 3% swing?0 -
Telegraph backs leave - no surprise there0
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Well, if taxation should equal representation then there are a lot of businesses which should have a vote a la The City). Alternatively, if you are keen on no taxation without representation, maybe, the amount paid in tax should determine the value of a person's vote (e.g. a person who pays twice the average personal tax should have their vote counted twice and a person who pays no tax should not have a vote).IanB2 said:
I don't remember the phrase being 'no pension without representation'?HurstLlama said:
Thank you, Mr. Cole. Might I suggest that you and I might be an exemplar for how it should be done. We basically agree on the outcome but disagree on the means to get there whilst at the same time acknowledging the valid points the other makes. In this situation you have come down for remain and I have for Leave. No bitterness, no bile, no insults.OldKingCole said:
Hear, hear!
Perhaps the solution i to raise the age of the franchise. 70 is probably too high. 60 is probably right but we would have to compromise. Make it fifty, then we might get some serious government focused on the long term common good.
Personally I think the universal suffrage is a one way ticket to perdition and national penury, in fact democracy itself is a bloody silly idea and is doomed. I recognise that might be a minority view, but at least it is a considered one.0 -
There is something deeply, deeply offensive about the Buzzcocks being used for a McDonalds ad.....0
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@NCPoliticsEU: ORB/Telegraph (#EUref)
Certain to vote:
REMAIN 53 (+5)
LEAVE 46 (-3)
All adults:
REMAIN 49 (=)
LEAVE 47 (+3)
16th-19th
N=800
#Brexit0 -
Fuck off, ORB!! ;-)BenedictWhite said:Latest Orb poll:
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/7449958954108928000 -
I kind of always thought she'd end up that way even in the books, although it's been a while - as far as they've gotten, I felt the overall message was she was a bit crap at complex leadership.Sean_F said:
Excellent battle scene. Meereen is fun too. But (in contrast to her book persona) Sansa is a duplicitous shit.Lowlander said:
That's something else they got so right in Game of Thrones.kle4 said:
I don't know how anyone ever survived medieval battles.Lowlander said:
It is probably the most realistic portrayal of medieval combat ever committed to film or television. Absolutely phenomenally done, it still had the odd bit of purely cinematic content but the heart of it was entirely realistic.kle4 said:
Some brutal stuff in it - not your typical glamour shots.Pulpstar said:Even if you don't follow the series, make an effort to watch Game of Thrones season 6 Episode 9 (The last one)
The cinematography is stunning.
Basically, regardless of how skilled you were, or how well trained you were, once you were in melee combat in an open battle (before or after it turned into a pushing contest, which almost all of them were) you only survived based on luck.
You are more likely to die from suffocation or drowning and just as likely to die from someone on your own side as you were from an enemy weapon.
Of course very few battles featured open combat, it was all close combat in drilled formations. Again something Game of Thrones got spot on in this episode (albeit only for one side, while the other ended up as you would expect an undrilled, partisan army).0 -
Now this is interesting look at the ALL VOTERS figures
https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsEU/status/7449975563720171530 -
Well I for one have no idea what the result will be but there is not too long to wait nowkle4 said:Many, me including me, called it for Leave when they got a confluence of great polls. Now, that's because I never learn not to overreact, but I shall try, and so not now call it for Remain based of a series of good polls.
Demographics, message, passion, all favour Leave.0 -
That's an interesting follow up.Scott_P said:@NCPoliticsEU: ORB/Telegraph (#EUref)
Certain to vote:
REMAIN 53 (+5)
LEAVE 46 (-3)
All adults:
REMAIN 49 (=)
LEAVE 47 (+3)
16th-19th
N=800
#Brexit
As ever it's all about the GOTV.0 -
So undecided making up their mind and switching from "may not vote" to "certain to vote"?Scott_P said:@NCPoliticsEU: ORB/Telegraph (#EUref)
Certain to vote:
REMAIN 53 (+5)
LEAVE 46 (-3)
All adults:
REMAIN 49 (=)
LEAVE 47 (+3)
16th-19th
N=800
#Brexit0 -
No, not almost certainly. BlimeyChameleon said:
Almost certainly game, set and match.HYUFD said:Britain Elects @britainelects 2m2 minutes ago
EU referendum poll:
Remain: 53% (+5)
Leave: 46% (-3)
(via ORB, phone / )
Certain to vote.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/7449958954108928000 -
Telegraph write up of the ORB poll
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/20/remain-surge-back-into-the-lead-in-wake-of-jo-cox-murder---but-e/0 -
It ain't over till the lady of marginally larger than normal proportions sings?TheScreamingEagles said:Now this is interesting look at the ALL VOTERS figures
https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsEU/status/7449975563720171530
