politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The referendum: The affluent versus the non-affluent summed

NickPalmer said:

RobD said:

rcs1000 said:

El_Dave said:

Pro_Rata said:

DC's clause on the meaning of 'Ever Closer Union' is perhaps the most important part of his deal, because it is a strong marker. Yes, I expect there to be bumps in the writing of this into EU treaties, but as an acknowledgement of reality, I don't expect it ultimately to be struck down and I do expect it to have significant bearing on the future development of the EU.

As for the inner core, if they want an army, let 'em.

In Mr Paxman's recent EU doccy, the House of Commons Library told him that 59% of UK laws in 2010-2013 came from the EU. That's plenty close enough already.

[Serious question]

How do you measure laws? By numbers of acts of parliament? By word count? By number of articles?

I ask this because if you look through the list of Acts of Parliament 2015 (here), you see remarkably few that appear EU inspired. There is the "European Union (Approvals) Act 2015", but most seem to be unremarkable and certainly not inspired by the EU.

Also includes secondary legislation, no doubt.

Yes, the facts are not really in dispute on this. There is a huge amount of standardisation legislation which mostly comes from the EU, as part of the development of the single market, and that's where the 59% comes from. Generally manufacturers don't especially care where they need to put labels or whether they need to be green or pink, but they'd rather not have to grapple with 28 different sets of regulations, so by common consent these things are increasingly standard throughout the EU. Where a standared has been set, countries are not allowed to say "Nah, we're gonna have pink labels instead" - so "taking back control" in that context means the ability to deviate from an agreed standard.

By contrast, there is not much primary legislation or legislation which most people would think was important that comes from the EU. The compulsory 4 weeks' holiday is an example, or (to take one that I had something to do with) the ban on painful experiments on animals to test cosmetics.

The problem with that analysis being that if so much of it is single market legislation then why does so little of it apply to Norway?

TOPPING said:

This is a) boring b) frustrating c) not a EURO 2016-winning team.

What does Roy gain from not playing his strongest team? Like a boxer tying one hand behind his back.

He's saving them for that second half of the competition they wont be going to.

Chameleon said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

Chameleon said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

Electorate in GB = 38,597,100, (E) 2,297,300 (W), 4,027,200 (S). Total = 44,921,600

Electorate of London = 5,216,352, Electorate of Gibraltar = 20,683

Electorate of NI = 1,241,079

Therefore:

Electorate of Scotland, Wales, NI, Gib , London combined = 12,802,614

Electorate of England less London = 33,380,748

Electorate of England less London is nearly three times the size of the rest of the UK electorate combined.

Therefore Even if Everybody in Wales, NI, Scotland London and Gibraltar voted Remain, just a 69-31% out vote in the rest of England would overturn their votes and result in OUT.

Good Luck Remainers.

While that sounds good, if we say they go 66-34 for Remain, then RoEngland needs to go ~62-38 for Leave. Polls are not showing that.

Sorry but I believe you have miscalculated.

If on 100% turnout London+Gib+RoUK votes 62-38 remain,

Then rest of England needs to vote leave by 56-44 to overturn it.

Thats eminently possible. No wonder Remain are worried once you factor differential turnout etc.in

What is it if Lon-Gib-Wal-Sco-NI go 67-33 for Remain? If it is ~57-43 for Leave in RestofEngland then this may be quite close.

I cant see r of uk + london being anywhere near that to be honest. Only Scotland is anywhere near those figures. London and NI seem to be 5x / 4x remain, and Wales may well go Brexit.

No wonder the remainers here are so vocal. They are trying to convince themselves just as the libdems here noisily tried to convince themselves that they were going to hang onto Tory/Libdem contest seats last year (and I was roundly monstered for saying that places like yeovil and sutton were doomed).

To win this, remain have to come close to winning rest of england minus London. That is a hell of a big ask.

BenedictWhite said:

Quite a lot of technical standardisation comes from the WTO (where Norway are at the top table and we are not) then via the EU to us, surely?

The truthful answer to that is that I don't know - you may well be right.

It's relatively rare for technical standardisation to be the source of great controversy, so it's actually a field where I don't mind the WTO doing it.

NickPalmer said:

BenedictWhite said:

Quite a lot of technical standardisation comes from the WTO (where Norway are at the top table and we are not) then via the EU to us, surely?

The truthful answer to that is that I don't know - you may well be right.

It's relatively rare for technical standardisation to be the source of great controversy, so it's actually a field where I don't mind the WTO doing it.

Be nice if we had a seat like Norway do

Apologies to all. I just took the 13/2 about Vardy to score next.

= Vardy substituted/off injured/Slovakia win 5-0.

Scott_P said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Why are England so boring to watch

The Wales game is much better

How are Scotland do... Oh wait

Wales 2 Putin 0

Casino_Royale said:

Sean_F said:

EPG said:

OllyT said:

midwinter said:

EPG said:

peter_from_putney said:

Unless I'm very much mistaken, I would say that the anecdotal evidence offered on this site to date strongly favours LEAVE, paricularly with reference to large numbers of voters, eg the Nissan workforce vs a few dozen people in North London.
But then again, these are random reports, completely unsubstatiated and unweighted and although interesting, have about the same value as yesterday's fish and chips wrapping.

Most of the anecdotes come from active campaigners for LEAVE, experiencing the natural politeness of the great English public; almost all come from their sympathisers.

If the anecdotal evidence from here is a quarter way accurate Remain will do well to poll in the high teens.....

I was just thinking exactly that - particularly as every Leave vote that has been the subject of an anecdote has been a "surprise" as the poster would have expected them to vote Remain. Don't know why we are waiting till Friday to get the result really.

I bet people who know, much less marry, PBers are going to be more inclined to LEAVE than crude demography would suggest.

Anecdotes are interesting, but there's not the slightest doubt that Remain will win this now.

Why not the slightest doubt? Surely, there's always some doubt.

Of course. I was feeling depressed when I posted that.

I think we can run close, but not reach 50%+.

NickPalmer said:

BenedictWhite said:

Quite a lot of technical standardisation comes from the WTO (where Norway are at the top table and we are not) then via the EU to us, surely?

The truthful answer to that is that I don't know - you may well be right.

It's relatively rare for technical standardisation to be the source of great controversy, so it's actually a field where I don't mind the WTO doing it.

A lot of the WTO stuff is done, dare I whisper it? by consensus... so generally no one ends up objecting.

On the other hand some of the EU stuff is really odd and mean. They decided (according to an article I read about Denmark) that you could not smoke fish any more using the age old method because:

1. They thought eating traditional smoked food may be dangerous.

2. It may be bad for the workers...

3. Burning carbon neutral wood apparently is not carbon neutral (Who knew).

As luck would have it though there was a technical solution of a smoking machine using synthetic smoke which recirculates. Made in *cough* Germany. What lucky chaps the Danes are eh?

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

NickPalmer said:

BenedictWhite said:

Quite a lot of technical standardisation comes from the WTO (where Norway are at the top table and we are not) then via the EU to us, surely?

The truthful answer to that is that I don't know - you may well be right.

It's relatively rare for technical standardisation to be the source of great controversy, so it's actually a field where I don't mind the WTO doing it.

Be nice if we had a seat like Norway do

We may be able to even chair a committee or two.

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

NickPalmer said:

BenedictWhite said:

Quite a lot of technical standardisation comes from the WTO (where Norway are at the top table and we are not) then via the EU to us, surely?

The truthful answer to that is that I don't know - you may well be right.

It's relatively rare for technical standardisation to be the source of great controversy, so it's actually a field where I don't mind the WTO doing it.

Be nice if we had a seat like Norway do

I've sat on committees. Lots of people have seats but don't matter.

I'm surprised with all the chat about Norway, Albania, etc. that nobody considers the most obvious parallel to a large and prosperous country in the UK's position, which is that it would be Japan with half the economy and influence. Japan probably has a role in standards of industries which it leads, like robotics, but the rest is not exactly rule-the-waves stuff.

FrankBooth said:

I'm now envisaging the nightmare scenario. UK votes Remain but England votes out. England win the Euros cue a whole lot of flag waving and a spur to English nationalism.

That requires us winning the Euros. Based on tonight's performance that is definitely not going to happen.

EPG said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

NickPalmer said:

BenedictWhite said:

Quite a lot of technical standardisation comes from the WTO (where Norway are at the top table and we are not) then via the EU to us, surely?

The truthful answer to that is that I don't know - you may well be right.

It's relatively rare for technical standardisation to be the source of great controversy, so it's actually a field where I don't mind the WTO doing it.

Be nice if we had a seat like Norway do

I've sat on committees. Lots of people have seats but don't matter.

I'm surprised with all the chat about Norway, Albania, etc. that nobody considers the most obvious parallel to a large and prosperous country in the UK's position, which is that it would be Japan with half the economy and influence. Japan probably has a role in standards of industries which it leads, like robotics, but the rest is not exactly rule-the-waves stuff.

That's a little unfair on Norway, actually. It has influence where it matters. Norway's oil and gas standards have been hugely influential in determining the rest of the EU's.

TheKrakenAwakes said:

Someone remind me why Wilshere is playing?

Is he?

Tim said:

EPG said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

NickPalmer said:

BenedictWhite said:

Quite a lot of technical standardisation comes from the WTO (where Norway are at the top table and we are not) then via the EU to us, surely?

The truthful answer to that is that I don't know - you may well be right.

It's relatively rare for technical standardisation to be the source of great controversy, so it's actually a field where I don't mind the WTO doing it.

Be nice if we had a seat like Norway do

I've sat on committees. Lots of people have seats but don't matter.

I'm surprised with all the chat about Norway, Albania, etc. that nobody considers the most obvious parallel to a large and prosperous country in the UK's position, which is that it would be Japan with half the economy and influence. Japan probably has a role in standards of industries which it leads, like robotics, but the rest is not exactly rule-the-waves stuff.

That's a little unfair on Norway, actually. It has influence where it matters. Norway's oil and gas standards have been hugely influential in determining the rest of the EU's.

I agree precisely - If Britain is an industry leader, it will have a natural leadership role as its money will be on the table. Then again, that's already true in the EU, so no diff.

Chameleon said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

Chameleon said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

Chameleon said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

Electorate in GB = 38,597,100, (E) 2,297,300 (W), 4,027,200 (S). Total = 44,921,600

Electorate of London = 5,216,352, Electorate of Gibraltar = 20,683

Electorate of NI = 1,241,079

Therefore:

Electorate of Scotland, Wales, NI, Gib , London combined = 12,802,614

Electorate of England less London = 33,380,748

Electorate of England less London is nearly three times the size of the rest of the UK electorate combined.

Therefore Even if Everybody in Wales, NI, Scotland London and Gibraltar voted Remain, just a 69-31% out vote in the rest of England would overturn their votes and result in OUT.

Good Luck Remainers.

While that sounds good, if we say they go 66-34 for Remain, then RoEngland needs to go ~62-38 for Leave. Polls are not showing that.

Sorry but I believe you have miscalculated.

If on 100% turnout London+Gib+RoUK votes 62-38 remain,

Then rest of England needs to vote leave by 56-44 to overturn it.

Thats eminently possible. No wonder Remain are worried once you factor differential turnout etc.in

What is it if Lon-Gib-Wal-Sco-NI go 67-33 for Remain? If it is ~57-43 for Leave in RestofEngland then this may be quite close.

I cant see r of uk + london being anywhere near that to be honest. Only Scotland is anywhere near those figures. London and NI seem to be 5x / 4x remain, and Wales may well go Brexit.

No wonder the remainers here are so vocal. They are trying to convince themselves just as the libdems here noisily tried to convince themselves that they were going to hang onto Tory/Libdem contest seats last year (and I was roundly monstered for saying that places like yeovil and sutton were doomed).

To win this, remain have to come close to winning rest of england minus London. That is a hell of a big ask.

That's actually given me some hope. If I understand it correctly a 59-41 leave for Remain among the regions + London would translate to Leave only needing to be ahead about 54-46 in Rest of England for it to be a score draw. That seems slightly possible.

If rouk+london was 51-49 remain then rest of England only needs to be 50.4 - 49.6 leave.

Roughly soeaking for every % over 50% rest of UK plus London votes Remain, then rest of england needs to vote 0.4% over 50%.

When you look at cold hard figures it is not good for Remain at all - and this is with 100% turnout so no differential turnout effect.

Unless people have read rest of England wrong it looks to me like remain are toast.

Sean_F said:

Casino_Royale said:

Sean_F said:

EPG said:

OllyT said:

midwinter said:

EPG said:

peter_from_putney said:

Unless I'm very much mistaken, I would say that the anecdotal evidence offered on this site to date strongly favours LEAVE, paricularly with reference to large numbers of voters, eg the Nissan workforce vs a few dozen people in North London.
But then again, these are random reports, completely unsubstatiated and unweighted and although interesting, have about the same value as yesterday's fish and chips wrapping.

Most of the anecdotes come from active campaigners for LEAVE, experiencing the natural politeness of the great English public; almost all come from their sympathisers.

If the anecdotal evidence from here is a quarter way accurate Remain will do well to poll in the high teens.....

I was just thinking exactly that - particularly as every Leave vote that has been the subject of an anecdote has been a "surprise" as the poster would have expected them to vote Remain. Don't know why we are waiting till Friday to get the result really.

I bet people who know, much less marry, PBers are going to be more inclined to LEAVE than crude demography would suggest.

Anecdotes are interesting, but there's not the slightest doubt that Remain will win this now.

Why not the slightest doubt? Surely, there's always some doubt.

Of course. I was feeling depressed when I posted that.

I think we can run close, but not reach 50%+.

Whatever the result Mr F the referendum has just reinforced my view that there are a large block of people for whom the current political structures provide no representation.

It has all the feel of an ancien regime about to crumble. Certainly on the right there are lots of voters who now wont vote Conservative again. They have to go somewhere, time for a change.

EPG said:

Tim said:

EPG said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

NickPalmer said:

BenedictWhite said:

Quite a lot of technical standardisation comes from the WTO (where Norway are at the top table and we are not) then via the EU to us, surely?

The truthful answer to that is that I don't know - you may well be right.

It's relatively rare for technical standardisation to be the source of great controversy, so it's actually a field where I don't mind the WTO doing it.

Be nice if we had a seat like Norway do

I've sat on committees. Lots of people have seats but don't matter.

I'm surprised with all the chat about Norway, Albania, etc. that nobody considers the most obvious parallel to a large and prosperous country in the UK's position, which is that it would be Japan with half the economy and influence. Japan probably has a role in standards of industries which it leads, like robotics, but the rest is not exactly rule-the-waves stuff.

That's a little unfair on Norway, actually. It has influence where it matters. Norway's oil and gas standards have been hugely influential in determining the rest of the EU's.

I agree precisely - If Britain is an industry leader, it will have a natural leadership role as its money will be on the table. Then again, that's already true in the EU, so no diff.

Er, no, we would be at the actual top table, not arguing about what the EU rep takes to the top table.

The polls today will show remain ahead but there is still time for leave to get back ahead. Don't be too downbeat when polls come out today.

Scott_P said:

TheKrakenAwakes said:

Someone remind me why Wilshere is playing?

@Ladbrokes:

Wilshire passes to Slovakian players so far: 23
Wilshire passes to Arsenal players last season: 21

#ENGSLO https://t.co/JQ3DKIQLiZ

You've got to admit it's jolly European friendly...

TheKrakenAwakes said:

ThreeQuidder said:

I keep hearing Hamšík as Hampshire, which is confusing.

Hamsik and Wilshere - will the Slovaks bring on Dawset later?

Hampshire and Wilshit.

nunu said:

The polls today will show remain ahead but there is still time for leave to get back ahead. Don't be too downbeat when polls come out today.

Leave would have won this without Farage and his stupid poster and the tragic death of Jo Cox - they still may but the momemtum seems to be with remain

Big_G_NorthWales said:

nunu said:

The polls today will show remain ahead but there is still time for leave to get back ahead. Don't be too downbeat when polls come out today.

Leave would have won this without Farage and his stupid poster and the tragic death of Jo Cox - they still may but the momemtum seems to be with remain

Don't mate. Too painful to hear for us Leavers.

BenedictWhite said:

EPG said:

Tim said:

EPG said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

NickPalmer said:

BenedictWhite said:

Quite a lot of technical standardisation comes from the WTO (where Norway are at the top table and we are not) then via the EU to us, surely?

The truthful answer to that is that I don't know - you may well be right.

It's relatively rare for technical standardisation to be the source of great controversy, so it's actually a field where I don't mind the WTO doing it.

Be nice if we had a seat like Norway do

I've sat on committees. Lots of people have seats but don't matter.

I'm surprised with all the chat about Norway, Albania, etc. that nobody considers the most obvious parallel to a large and prosperous country in the UK's position, which is that it would be Japan with half the economy and influence. Japan probably has a role in standards of industries which it leads, like robotics, but the rest is not exactly rule-the-waves stuff.

That's a little unfair on Norway, actually. It has influence where it matters. Norway's oil and gas standards have been hugely influential in determining the rest of the EU's.

I agree precisely - If Britain is an industry leader, it will have a natural leadership role as its money will be on the table. Then again, that's already true in the EU, so no diff.

Er, no, we would be at the actual top table, not arguing about what the EU rep takes to the top table.

If British negotiators can't convince the EU, they can't convince the WTO.

Casino_Royale said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

nunu said:

The polls today will show remain ahead but there is still time for leave to get back ahead. Don't be too downbeat when polls come out today.

Leave would have won this without Farage and his stupid poster and the tragic death of Jo Cox - they still may but the momemtum seems to be with remain

Don't mate. Too painful to hear for us Leavers.

I'm not so sure. If the financial markets forecast a Leave vote, you would see dramatic movements in the value of the pound and the FTSE 100. That would do Leave no good at all.

I think politicians are vastly overestimating the importance of their stance on determining how people will vote.

Tim said:

EPG said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

NickPalmer said:

BenedictWhite said:

Quite a lot of technical standardisation comes from the WTO (where Norway are at the top table and we are not) then via the EU to us, surely?

The truthful answer to that is that I don't know - you may well be right.

It's relatively rare for technical standardisation to be the source of great controversy, so it's actually a field where I don't mind the WTO doing it.

Be nice if we had a seat like Norway do

I've sat on committees. Lots of people have seats but don't matter.

I'm surprised with all the chat about Norway, Albania, etc. that nobody considers the most obvious parallel to a large and prosperous country in the UK's position, which is that it would be Japan with half the economy and influence. Japan probably has a role in standards of industries which it leads, like robotics, but the rest is not exactly rule-the-waves stuff.

That's a little unfair on Norway, actually. It has influence where it matters. Norway's oil and gas standards have been hugely influential in determining the rest of the EU's.

Has ***THE*** Tim returned?

Should Roy get the bullet after Euro 2016, Eddie Howe looks like the value bet to succeed him, on offer at 12/1 with both SkyBet and Paddy Power.
DYOR

Rumor is a pipe
Blown by surmises, jealousies, conjectures,
And of so easy and so plain a stop
That the blunt monster with uncounted heads,
The still-discordant wav'ring multitude,
Can play upon it.

Henry IV Part 2

Sums up a lot of this thread and a lot of the campaign.
I'm heartily sick of hearing how experts are worthless, seeing nonsense touted as fact, finger pointing etc etc etc

BOTH SIDES ARE NOT AS BAD AS EACH OTHER. Unfortunately for those on the Leave side with honourable motives, e.g. Mr Tyndall, they have been saddled with the likes of Farage and while there is plenty to complain about in the Remain campaign, they haven't scraped as far down the bottom of the populist barrel as some elements in Leave.

The Leave anthem for today appears to be to attack Remain for hating people. Oh, the irony.

I am ashamed at the level of ignorance and prejudice displayed by a large number of people.

I despair more than ever at the low level of political understanding of anything whatsoever.

God help the country when we get to Friday, whichever way this goes.

Wales 3! Blimey

Jacks ARSE was 57/43 REMAIN wasnt it.

Looks like he will be close again.

Got to hand it to him.

EPG said:

BenedictWhite said:

EPG said:

Tim said:

EPG said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

NickPalmer said:

BenedictWhite said:

Quite a lot of technical standardisation comes from the WTO (where Norway are at the top table and we are not) then via the EU to us, surely?

The truthful answer to that is that I don't know - you may well be right.

It's relatively rare for technical standardisation to be the source of great controversy, so it's actually a field where I don't mind the WTO doing it.

Be nice if we had a seat like Norway do

I've sat on committees. Lots of people have seats but don't matter.

I'm surprised with all the chat about Norway, Albania, etc. that nobody considers the most obvious parallel to a large and prosperous country in the UK's position, which is that it would be Japan with half the economy and influence. Japan probably has a role in standards of industries which it leads, like robotics, but the rest is not exactly rule-the-waves stuff.

That's a little unfair on Norway, actually. It has influence where it matters. Norway's oil and gas standards have been hugely influential in determining the rest of the EU's.

I agree precisely - If Britain is an industry leader, it will have a natural leadership role as its money will be on the table. Then again, that's already true in the EU, so no diff.

Er, no, we would be at the actual top table, not arguing about what the EU rep takes to the top table.

If British negotiators can't convince the EU, they can't convince the WTO.

No, I'll say again. Regulations at WTO level are decided on a consensus basis.

At the EU level they do not seem to be.

Just keep cwlm and remember this:

For every 1% over 50% Scotland+London+Wales+NI+Gib vote remain

Rest of England need to vote Brexit by 0.4% over 50%.

And that is based on 100% turnout. Add in differential turnout and it gets even better for leave.

The maths favour Brexit as long as rest of England delivers.

There is only one team in red playing football tonight and it's not England.

peter_from_putney said:

Should Roy get the bullet after Euro 2016, Eddie Howe looks like the value bet to succeed him, on offer at 12/1 with both SkyBet and Paddy Power.
DYOR

It's the only way Eddie will leave the Cherries

peter_from_putney said:

TOPPING said:

England = Remain
Slovakia = Leave

It's by no means over.

Haven't you left out the word "Roy" in front of Remain and Leave in the above equations?

I popped on to Eddie Howe at 12s, thx v much.

GeoffM said:

GIN1138 said:

Tim said:

EPG said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

NickPalmer said:

BenedictWhite said:

Quite a lot of technical standardisation comes from the WTO (where Norway are at the top table and we are not) then via the EU to us, surely?

The truthful answer to that is that I don't know - you may well be right.

It's relatively rare for technical standardisation to be the source of great controversy, so it's actually a field where I don't mind the WTO doing it.

Be nice if we had a seat like Norway do

I've sat on committees. Lots of people have seats but don't matter.

I'm surprised with all the chat about Norway, Albania, etc. that nobody considers the most obvious parallel to a large and prosperous country in the UK's position, which is that it would be Japan with half the economy and influence. Japan probably has a role in standards of industries which it leads, like robotics, but the rest is not exactly rule-the-waves stuff.

That's a little unfair on Norway, actually. It has influence where it matters. Norway's oil and gas standards have been hugely influential in determining the rest of the EU's.

Has ***THE*** Tim returned?

No. We have established this already

Did we? I can't remember... Maybe one day *THE* Tim will return to PB... Scott will be in need of a "foil" post REMAIN!

I watched this game about 15 times last season.

FrankBooth said:

What do we think about turnout in Scotland? If the campaign isn't exactly inspiring turnout could be well down there.

Ruth Davidson in the last TV debate tomorrow will GOTV for remain in Scotland

Scott_P said:

@andypenman: Remember, for all Russia's size, they're being comprehensively outplayed by a country with an area only about the size of Wales. #WALRUS

LOL. Very good.

Scott_P said:

@andypenman: Remember, for all Russia's size, they're being comprehensively outplayed by a country with an area only about the size of Wales. #WALRUS

Given most of Russia is an ice box for 8 months a year how much opportunity do they actually get to play football?

Scott_P said:

@andypenman: Remember, for all Russia's size, they're being comprehensively outplayed by a country with an area only about the size of Wales. #WALRUS

And I suppose they are playing on a field about the size of a football pitch.

Lowlander said:

kle4 said:

Pulpstar said:

Even if you don't follow the series, make an effort to watch Game of Thrones season 6 Episode 9 (The last one)

The cinematography is stunning.

Some brutal stuff in it - not your typical glamour shots.

It is probably the most realistic portrayal of medieval combat ever committed to film or television. Absolutely phenomenally done, it still had the odd bit of purely cinematic content but the heart of it was entirely realistic.

I don't know how anyone ever survived medieval battles.

Alanbrooke said:

Whatever the result Mr F the referendum has just reinforced my view that there are a large block of people for whom the current political structures provide no representation.

It has all the feel of an ancien regime about to crumble. Certainly on the right there are lots of voters who now wont vote Conservative again. They have to go somewhere, time for a change.

That I think is spot on, Mr. B. Not only former Conservative voters either. Up the road from me is a post war council estate where a year or so back I did some work, on behalf of Mid-Sussex Council, trying to get people to register to vote. "Why should I bother nobody gives a feck about us" was the most common response, and I have to say that they had a point.

For example, at the time I was doing that work the more than adequate street lighting in my cul de sac was being upgraded because it did not comply to some new standard. Yet the street lighting on the Estate was so inadequate that in some parts it did not exist. It still has not been improved.

There are lots and lots of people who feel that the political parties do not represent them, that they are forgotten and do not matter. In such circumstances the "extremist" parties will prosper. I note that no one on here today has mentioned the new Mayoress of Rome.

The NatCen poll has Remain 53 Leave- 47

TheScreamingEagles said:

The NatCen poll has Remain 53 Remain 47

Remain 100%.