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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The referendum: The affluent versus the non-affluent summed up in two Populus polling charts
Populus polling data on the people who are more likely to vote Remain pic.twitter.com/8KjzfawHzP
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Populus are the most interesting pollster in this EURef campaign.0
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Second!0
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FPT for @Richard_Tyndall
Richard hi glad you're on.
Thanks for your link the other day.
Now...
I have read the annex you referred me to and for all the world it looks as though it states that non-members of the banking union ("at least one member of the Council that does not participate in the banking union") who object to the special treatment that the UK is getting from the deal (Section A = Economic Governance, namely eurozone discrimination and banking union), shall not have a veto ("cannot result in a situation which would amount to allowing a Member State a veto").
Added: if it was talking about the United Kingdom in this example, why would it not say "the United Kingdom" as it does elsewhere.
In other words, that annex seems to be aimed at any other non-banking union member of the EU that objects to the deal that the UK has achieved.
Not the other way round.
ie nothing I can see in that Annex contradicts the opt outs and protections achieved in the deal.
I, of course, ANAL.0 -
So, putting it simply, the people most likely to swing a leave vote are those who currently contribute the least, and those who will have to live with the consequences for the shortest amount of time.
Ain't democracy grand.0 -
As with SINDYRef - those doing best out of the status quo keenest to preserve it, those doing less well - why not change?0
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FPT :
Casino_Royale said:
» show previous quotes
I don't know how much more of this I can take.
A handful of bookies are now quoting LEAVE at 3.75 ...... that's quite a way in from 4.75 before lunch. Sounds like there's a lot of guesswork going on.0 -
The topline appears to show Educated versus Not...0
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Because they haven't worked out yet just how much worse it could beCarlottaVance said:As with SINDYRef - those doing best out of the status quo keenest to preserve it, those doing less well - why not change?
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Those with nothing to lose have nothing to lose by Brexit!Anorak said:So, putting it simply, the people most likely to swing a leave vote are those who currently contribute the least, and those who will have to live with the consequences for the shortest amount of time.
Ain't democracy grand.
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Mr. Anorak, the elderly also have the greatest relative say in general elections.
Nobody's stopping the young from voting. If they choose not to, it's not legitimate to criticise the elderly for opting to exercise their democratic right. Indeed, it's perverse to chastise those participating in democracy.0 -
Remain are
What are you talking about they can't contribute because of unlimited immigration and have been hit hardest by it also.Anorak said:So, putting it simply, the people most likely to swing a leave vote are those who currently contribute the least, and those who will have to live with the consequences for the shortest amount of time.
Ain't democracy grand.0 -
The Wales thing confounds me..0
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They don't have 'nothing'foxinsoxuk said:
Those with nothing to lose have nothing to lose by Brexit!Anorak said:So, putting it simply, the people most likely to swing a leave vote are those who currently contribute the least, and those who will have to live with the consequences for the shortest amount of time.
Ain't democracy grand.
Those who aren't well off can get worse off.......
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Both sides have their fair share of groups that are historically unreliable.0
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Betfair's matched Brexit bets now exceed £41 million. That's more than is wagered on two closely fought cricket tests!0
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On the other hand, young people tend to be foolish and thus it's only for the good that their decisions are somewhat diluted by older and wiser heads!Anorak said:So, putting it simply, the people most likely to swing a leave vote are those who currently contribute the least, and those who will have to live with the consequences for the shortest amount of time.
Ain't democracy grand.
I've got three degrees and I'm voting Leave. I acknowledge that I am unsual...0 -
Remain relying on 18-24 year olds in full time education. Lol. Their turnout will be 55℅ at best.0
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They are people who have been left behind by globalisation. Either old dogs who don't want to learn new tricks or dogs who never had any tricks. I don't think they are right about the EU, but leaving is a rational choice for them and I think their thinking deserves some understanding.Anorak said:So, putting it simply, the people most likely to swing a leave vote are those who currently contribute the least, and those who will have to live with the consequences for the shortest amount of time.
Ain't democracy grand.0 -
If pensioners were heavily pro-EU, as they are in many other parts of Europe, we'd hear much less of this argument.Anorak said:So, putting it simply, the people most likely to swing a leave vote are those who currently contribute the least, and those who will have to live with the consequences for the shortest amount of time.
Ain't democracy grand.0 -
You made some fine tunes.KentRising said:
On the other hand, young people tend to be foolish and thus it's only for the good that their decisions are somewhat diluted by older and wiser heads!Anorak said:So, putting it simply, the people most likely to swing a leave vote are those who currently contribute the least, and those who will have to live with the consequences for the shortest amount of time.
Ain't democracy grand.
I've got three degrees and I'm voting Leave. I acknowledge that I am unsual...0 -
duplicate0
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I was reading on my phone, and I had to scroll to see the words that followed "fought".peter_from_putney said:Betfair's matched Brexit bets now exceed £41 million. That's more than is wagered on two closely fought cricket tests!
For some strange reason, my brain filled it in as "wars".0 -
Those who will still be collecting their winter fuel allowance whilst drawing on their final salary pension schemes?foxinsoxuk said:
Those with nothing to lose have nothing to lose by Brexit!Anorak said:So, putting it simply, the people most likely to swing a leave vote are those who currently contribute the least, and those who will have to live with the consequences for the shortest amount of time.
Ain't democracy grand.0 -
..... and modest with it.KentRising said:
On the other hand, young people tend to be foolish and thus it's only for the good that their decisions are somewhat diluted by older and wiser heads!Anorak said:So, putting it simply, the people most likely to swing a leave vote are those who currently contribute the least, and those who will have to live with the consequences for the shortest amount of time.
Ain't democracy grand.
I've got three degrees and I'm voting Leave. I acknowledge that I am unsual...0 -
And lots of arbing?peter_from_putney said:FPT :
Casino_Royale said:
» show previous quotes
I don't know how much more of this I can take.
A handful of bookies are now quoting LEAVE at 3.75 ...... that's quite a way in from 4.75 before lunch. Sounds like there's a lot of guesswork going on.0 -
LOL!PlatoSaid said:
You made some fine tunes.KentRising said:
On the other hand, young people tend to be foolish and thus it's only for the good that their decisions are somewhat diluted by older and wiser heads!Anorak said:So, putting it simply, the people most likely to swing a leave vote are those who currently contribute the least, and those who will have to live with the consequences for the shortest amount of time.
Ain't democracy grand.
I've got three degrees and I'm voting Leave. I acknowledge that I am unsual...0 -
"If you wish to continue recieving your pension, Mrs Smith, you will need to join the compulsory re-education classes."Casino_Royale said:
If pensioners were heavily pro-EU, as they are in many other parts of Europe, we'd hear much less of this argument.Anorak said:So, putting it simply, the people most likely to swing a leave vote are those who currently contribute the least, and those who will have to live with the consequences for the shortest amount of time.
Ain't democracy grand.
Don't give them any ideas!0 -
@MSmithsonPB: LEAVE's continued #ProjectFear response to expert views it doesn't like is losing its potency and making people like Gove look silly.
Yup0 -
Afternoon all
A cancelled meeting (well, there's a surprise) as most of the men want to leave early and make sure they are in good time for the football tonight.
Thumbing through some of the afternoon posts, I'm left with the view REMAIN are playing the psychological card at this late hour. Once again, the self-interested prophets of doom are out and about telling us how the world will end if we have the affront to vote LEAVE on Thursday.
Everything is now being done to de-motivate the LEAVE vote before Thursday whether it be more warnings of disaster or simply the sneering and jeering of those wedded to either the current leadership of the Conservative Party or wedded to the fear of an alternative leadership team ?
As I'm not a Conservative, I don't care. The Sun is shining and I'm voting LEAVE on Thursday.
As someone might have said "It's a new dawn, it's a new day, it's a new start for the UK....and we're feeling good".
Football tonight - depends which England turns up and to a large extent which Slovakia. hey could frustrate us out of this but an early England goal will calm nerves and force them to come to us. If we win Group B, we'll know our next opponents by the end of tomorrow and we play Saturday late afternoon. If we are runners up, we could have to play Portugal or perhaps Iceland but we wouldn't know that for some while and the game would be next Monday evening.0 -
Whatever the result the psephology will be fascinating. Will Labour's heartlands really revolt to the extent we're expecting? And the absence of 'safe seats' makes everyone feel engaged.0
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What are ur degrees in. If you have one in English literature you can tell us when a politician is waffaling!KentRising said:
On the other hand, young people tend to be foolish and thus it's only for the good that their decisions are somewhat diluted by older and wiser heads!Anorak said:So, putting it simply, the people most likely to swing a leave vote are those who currently contribute the least, and those who will have to live with the consequences for the shortest amount of time.
Ain't democracy grand.
I've got three degrees and I'm voting Leave. I acknowledge that I am unsual...0 -
And yet 3 out of 4 of the top Leavers groups are 55-64, 65+ and retired, also all strong No voting groups.CarlottaVance said:As with SINDYRef - those doing best out of the status quo keenest to preserve it, those doing less well - why not change?
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*Anecdote Alert* During the 2010 General Election, my university had a polling station for the roughly 1500 people living on campus. Apparently turnout was around 30%, yes some people may have voted in their home constituency, by post, but I don't suspect the number was particularly great, I only know of two people who did and one them was myself. Maybe the EU Referendum will enthuse a higher turnout, personally I doubt whether students 18-24, will be able to get to 50% turnout.nunu said:Remain relying on 18-24 year olds in full time education. Lol. Their turnout will be 55℅ at best.
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stodge - I think England have a variety of attacking options that I don't remember in recent years. Certainly amongst strikers. But Kane and Sterling don't seem to be exciting people and the coach has never been one to make real use of such talent.0
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It’s all those English retiree immigrants.marke09 said:0 -
Most pensioners do not care as much about themselves as they do about the futures of their children and grandchildren. Please take that as a starting point and then think about why the vote as they do.FF43 said:
They are people who have been left behind by globalisation. Either old dogs who don't want to learn new tricks or dogs who never had any tricks. I don't think they are right about the EU, but leaving is a rational choice for them and I think their thinking deserves some understanding.Anorak said:So, putting it simply, the people most likely to swing a leave vote are those who currently contribute the least, and those who will have to live with the consequences for the shortest amount of time.
Ain't democracy grand.0 -
Boris should go on telly on Weds and offer the final Friday in June as a national bank holiday called British Independence Day.
That'd set the cat among the pigeons.0 -
18-24 year olds have historically had low-turnout, and the old have traditionally had high turnoutJamesP said:
*Anecdote Alert* During the 2010 General Election, my university had a polling station for the roughly 1500 people living on campus. Apparently turnout was around 30%, yes some people may have voted in their home constituency, by post, but I don't suspect the number was particularly great, I only know of two people who did and one them was myself. Maybe the EU Referendum will enthuse a higher turnout, personally I doubt whether students 18-24, will be able to get to 50% turnout.nunu said:Remain relying on 18-24 year olds in full time education. Lol. Their turnout will be 55℅ at best.
Good for Leave
ABs and the university educated usually turn up to vote, and those without qualifications or in C2 or DE are less likely to
Good for Remain
I think TC has this one right; if the WWC turns up, it's Leave. If they don't, it's Remain.0 -
'Leanne Wood of Plaid said last week she has been taken aback by the level of support for Leave in Wales '
And that's what is being admitted to her face!0 -
I have felt sick and sad all day over this, it is taking its toll. Feeling a bit more optimistic again now though, off out with a friend to do more leafleting for Labour Leave and Vote Leave.
Toodles!0 -
As I said before 24th June is 10 days before 4th July which is 10 days before 14th July.Fenster said:Boris should go on telly on Weds and offer the final Friday in June as a national bank holiday called British Independence Day.
That'd set the cat among the pigeons.0 -
I think TC has this one right; if the WWC turns up, it's Leave. If they don't, it's Remain.
It's very anecdotal, but I don;t think remain has ABC1 anywhere near as in the bag as they think they have. And that will be the real shock of the campaign.
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@MSmithsonPB
'LEAVE's continued #ProjectFear response to expert views it doesn't like is losing its potency and making people like Gove look silly'
The same silly billies that told us we would lose 3 million jobs if we didn't join the Euro ?.
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For the record, when I'm old, I guarantee you that I will no longer be a selfish git.HurstLlama said:
Most pensioners do not care as much about themselves as they do about the futures of their children and grandchildren. Please take that as a starting point and then think about why the vote as they do.FF43 said:
They are people who have been left behind by globalisation. Either old dogs who don't want to learn new tricks or dogs who never had any tricks. I don't think they are right about the EU, but leaving is a rational choice for them and I think their thinking deserves some understanding.Anorak said:So, putting it simply, the people most likely to swing a leave vote are those who currently contribute the least, and those who will have to live with the consequences for the shortest amount of time.
Ain't democracy grand.
Instead, I will be a selfish old git.0 -
Remain's two highest categories are those who have yet to do a day's work, soon followed by those who have done very little and have negligible life experience.
Ideal targets for conditioning.
Leave's are those with the greatest experience of the EU, both in terms of timescale and personal impact.0 -
UEFA should have arranged the England and Wales games for Thursday.taffys said:I think TC has this one right; if the WWC turns up, it's Leave. If they don't, it's Remain.
It's very anecdotal, but I don;t think remain has ABC1 anywhere near as in the bag as they think they have. And that will be the real shock of the campaign.0 -
Not another f*cking bank holiday please.Fenster said:Boris should go on telly on Weds and offer the final Friday in June as a national bank holiday called British Independence Day.
That'd set the cat among the pigeons.
I'd vote for any political party that offered to cut it back to two: New Year's day and one in the summer.0 -
Sitting in Hampstead, and I realise I'm getting a very London-centric view, I'm not sure I agree. It's 29-1 in my office, and I've counted North of 30 Remain posters in my 'hood at the weekend, against zero for Leave.taffys said:I think TC has this one right; if the WWC turns up, it's Leave. If they don't, it's Remain.
It's very anecdotal, but I don;t think remain has ABC1 anywhere near as in the bag as they think they have. And that will be the real shock of the campaign.
I would be shocked if Camden was less than 80:20 for Remain, especially given that even SeanT seems to have got the collywobbles.
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KentRising said:
On the other hand, young people tend to be foolish and thus it's only for the good that their decisions are somewhat diluted by older and wiser heads!Anorak said:So, putting it simply, the people most likely to swing a leave vote are those who currently contribute the least, and those who will have to live with the consequences for the shortest amount of time.
Ain't democracy grand.
I've got three degrees and I'm voting Leave. I acknowledge that I am unusual...</blockquote
I am not sure that you are so unusual.
I have 2 degrees and I am voting Leave, my wife works in the NHS and has 2 degrees-and she is also voting Leave0 -
They could call themselves The Popular Partyrcs1000 said:
Not another f*cking bank holiday please.Fenster said:Boris should go on telly on Weds and offer the final Friday in June as a national bank holiday called British Independence Day.
That'd set the cat among the pigeons.
I'd vote for any political party that offered to cut it back to two: New Year's day and one in the summer.
Not.0 -
The issue with that is that their children and grandchildren have a different view from them as to where their own interests lie. I don't intend to denigrate older people's viewpoints and I can see it might have come across that I do. It's that the world is a different place from what it was in the seventies and before.HurstLlama said:
Most pensioners do not care as much about themselves as they do about the futures of their children and grandchildren. Please take that as a starting point and then think about why the vote as they do.FF43 said:
They are people who have been left behind by globalisation. Either old dogs who don't want to learn new tricks or dogs who never had any tricks. I don't think they are right about the EU, but leaving is a rational choice for them and I think their thinking deserves some understanding.Anorak said:So, putting it simply, the people most likely to swing a leave vote are those who currently contribute the least, and those who will have to live with the consequences for the shortest amount of time.
Ain't democracy grand.0 -
Thank you, Scrooge....rcs1000 said:
Not another f*cking bank holiday please.Fenster said:Boris should go on telly on Weds and offer the final Friday in June as a national bank holiday called British Independence Day.
That'd set the cat among the pigeons.
I'd vote for any political party that offered to cut it back to two: New Year's day and one in the summer.0 -
New Vote Leave poster playing Remain at their own game
New EU rules on tax could cost each household over £2,600 ─► https://t.co/sVfUAQi1bE
#VoteLeave https://t.co/LG33aHaHXU0 -
The university terms are over for undergraduates. The students are either at home or gone travelling. I suspect most will have a vote at home, whether they use it or not is another matter.JamesP said:
*Anecdote Alert* During the 2010 General Election, my university had a polling station for the roughly 1500 people living on campus. Apparently turnout was around 30%, yes some people may have voted in their home constituency, by post, but I don't suspect the number was particularly great, I only know of two people who did and one them was myself. Maybe the EU Referendum will enthuse a higher turnout, personally I doubt whether students 18-24, will be able to get to 50% turnout.nunu said:Remain relying on 18-24 year olds in full time education. Lol. Their turnout will be 55℅ at best.
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JamesP said:
*Anecdote Alert* During the 2010 General Election, my university had a polling station for the roughly 1500 people living on campus. Apparently turnout was around 30%, yes some people may have voted in their home constituency, by post, but I don't suspect the number was particularly great, I only know of two people who did and one them was myself. Maybe the EU Referendum will enthuse a higher turnout, personally I doubt whether students 18-24, will be able to get to 50% turnout.nunu said:Remain relying on 18-24 year olds in full time education. Lol. Their turnout will be 55℅ at best.
When do the Uni's break up for summer?
EDIT: I thought they had - seems Mr LLama agrees.
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I don't accept that it is the WWC who are voting in strength for Leave . The WWC I suspect will think about the threat to their jobs and vote Remain . The WNWC , the unemployed and shirkers who expect to receive benefits whilst sitting at home watching horse racing on the TV on the other hand will vote strongly for Leavercs1000 said:
18-24 year olds have historically had low-turnout, and the old have traditionally had high turnoutJamesP said:
*Anecdote Alert* During the 2010 General Election, my university had a polling station for the roughly 1500 people living on campus. Apparently turnout was around 30%, yes some people may have voted in their home constituency, by post, but I don't suspect the number was particularly great, I only know of two people who did and one them was myself. Maybe the EU Referendum will enthuse a higher turnout, personally I doubt whether students 18-24, will be able to get to 50% turnout.nunu said:Remain relying on 18-24 year olds in full time education. Lol. Their turnout will be 55℅ at best.
Good for Leave
ABs and the university educated usually turn up to vote, and those without qualifications or in C2 or DE are less likely to
Good for Remain
I think TC has this one right; if the WWC turns up, it's Leave. If they don't, it's Remain.0 -
I do wonder about the reliability of turnout figures for this age group. Remember that most students can be registered to vote in 2 places but can only vote in 1, which caps the turnout for them at 50%.nunu said:Remain relying on 18-24 year olds in full time education. Lol. Their turnout will be 55℅ at best.
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I have one degree and I am voting Leave - or at least I would if my wife weren't supporting remain and is out of the country with no proxy vote - the things you do for marital harmony. Anyone have Zero or Minus one degree?RepublicanTory said:KentRising said:
On the other hand, young people tend to be foolish and thus it's only for the good that their decisions are somewhat diluted by older and wiser heads!Anorak said:So, putting it simply, the people most likely to swing a leave vote are those who currently contribute the least, and those who will have to live with the consequences for the shortest amount of time.
Ain't democracy grand.
I've got three degrees and I'm voting Leave. I acknowledge that I am unusual...
Anyway - more important than the footy is the euro 2016 bridge tournament http://www.eurobridge.org/repository/competitions/16budapest/microsite/RunningScores/Asp/RoundTeamsConditStatClassicMod.asp?qtournid=1210&qshowflag=1 England trouncing Scotland.0 -
They already have. But turnout will be below 60℅ for the youth I am certain. Since i am a mature student in his first year. They are so disenganged, my houshold is political and my 18 year old sister wont vote.What do others think?MarkHopkins said:JamesP said:
*Anecdote Alert* During the 2010 General Election, my university had a polling station for the roughly 1500 people living on campus. Apparently turnout was around 30%, yes some people may have voted in their home constituency, by post, but I don't suspect the number was particularly great, I only know of two people who did and one them was myself. Maybe the EU Referendum will enthuse a higher turnout, personally I doubt whether students 18-24, will be able to get to 50% turnout.nunu said:Remain relying on 18-24 year olds in full time education. Lol. Their turnout will be 55℅ at best.
When do the Uni's break up for summer?0 -
Correct .TudorRose said:
I do wonder about the reliability of turnout figures for this age group. Remember that most students can be registered to vote in 2 places but can only vote in 1, which caps the turnout for them at 50%.nunu said:Remain relying on 18-24 year olds in full time education. Lol. Their turnout will be 55℅ at best.
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Given the US has the 4th July, what about the 5th July? It would make things easier what with the inter-connected banking system. And 5th July is the anniversary of the 1945 general election.0
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They are, indeed, in English Literature! Moving in university circles, one learns to keep one's Leave tendencies under one's hat, somewhat. From my experience, it is a tremendous blessing that, for all their bluster on politics, the young tend not to bother voting. They can tell you all about the latest music apps on their space phones, but not who the Chancellor is, or who was PM before Tony Blair. Scary really.nunu said:
What are ur degrees in. If you have one in English literature you can tell us when a politician is waffaling!KentRising said:
On the other hand, young people tend to be foolish and thus it's only for the good that their decisions are somewhat diluted by older and wiser heads!Anorak said:So, putting it simply, the people most likely to swing a leave vote are those who currently contribute the least, and those who will have to live with the consequences for the shortest amount of time.
Ain't democracy grand.
I've got three degrees and I'm voting Leave. I acknowledge that I am unsual...0 -
Mr 43, A child may well have a different view on an issue from its parent. That does not however stop the parent from doing what it thinks it is in the best interest of the child, and nor should it.FF43 said:
The issue with that is that their children and grandchildren have a different view from them as to where their own interests lie. I don't intend to denigrate older people's viewpoints and I can see it might have come across that I do. It's that the world is a different place from what it was in the seventies and before.HurstLlama said:
Most pensioners do not care as much about themselves as they do about the futures of their children and grandchildren. Please take that as a starting point and then think about why the vote as they do.FF43 said:
They are people who have been left behind by globalisation. Either old dogs who don't want to learn new tricks or dogs who never had any tricks. I don't think they are right about the EU, but leaving is a rational choice for them and I think their thinking deserves some understanding.Anorak said:So, putting it simply, the people most likely to swing a leave vote are those who currently contribute the least, and those who will have to live with the consequences for the shortest amount of time.
Ain't democracy grand.0 -
As well as wondering where the 45-54 year-olds have got to, I note that the brackets are not exclusive. It's very possible to belong to multiple brackets.
So a post-graduate-educated 30-year-old Scot, in full time employment in category AB, renting his or her own home privately who went abroad on a summer holiday is damn near certain to be a Remainer, I guess.
I think it would be useful if they could group these findings in categories (and thus exclusively, so doing it by age, and so forth - doing it by as many as three categories simultaneously would probably be the maximum (eg age/location/socio-economic status would, if each category is exclusive (Age 35-44 in London, C1) be something like 6 x 4 x 10 categories - about as large as plausible, if not larger); if these could have cohort sizing made available as well, it'd be great.0 -
If REMAIN lose this, they will reckon their main mistake was not pulling the strings to ensure you were appointed chief of the LEAVE campaign...rcs1000 said:
Not another f*cking bank holiday please.Fenster said:Boris should go on telly on Weds and offer the final Friday in June as a national bank holiday called British Independence Day.
That'd set the cat among the pigeons.
I'd vote for any political party that offered to cut it back to two: New Year's day and one in the summer.
EDITED TO ADD: must be tough for the likes of you, Richard, Max - even on something you are desperate to win (and recognise will be an uphill struggle to), there is no conceivable path to winning on your own terms. Must be like a Maoist reluctantly voting for the Labour devationists.0 -
Mr Nunu, I can see it being over 60%. I'd guess 55-65% is the likeliest band.0
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The stuffing has been knocked out of the Leave campaign, I hate to say it, but it looks over to me. Unless Boris has the performance of a lifetime on Tuesday, I can't see any other result than a comfortable Remain win.0
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Which is why of course THAT poster was aired last week.rcs1000 said:
18-24 year olds have historically had low-turnout, and the old have traditionally had high turnoutJamesP said:
*Anecdote Alert* During the 2010 General Election, my university had a polling station for the roughly 1500 people living on campus. Apparently turnout was around 30%, yes some people may have voted in their home constituency, by post, but I don't suspect the number was particularly great, I only know of two people who did and one them was myself. Maybe the EU Referendum will enthuse a higher turnout, personally I doubt whether students 18-24, will be able to get to 50% turnout.nunu said:Remain relying on 18-24 year olds in full time education. Lol. Their turnout will be 55℅ at best.
Good for Leave
ABs and the university educated usually turn up to vote, and those without qualifications or in C2 or DE are less likely to
Good for Remain
I think TC has this one right; if the WWC turns up, it's Leave. If they don't, it's Remain.
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''Sitting in Hampstead, and I realise I'm getting a very London-centric view, I'm not sure I agree. It's 29-1 in my office, and I've counted North of 30 Remain posters in my 'hood at the weekend, against zero for Leave.''
Indeed, but ABC1 takes many forms. JohnO has posted how shocked he was at the support for Leave in Elmbridge, which is Britain's taxpayer powerhouse.
I have a feeling when some pollsters think ABC1 they think well paid public sector civil servants - but anyway, we shall see.0 -
Is that assertion based upon polling evidence or sheer prejudice?MarkSenior said:
I don't accept that it is the WWC who are voting in strength for Leave . The WWC I suspect will think about the threat to their jobs and vote Remain . The WNWC , the unemployed and shirkers who expect to receive benefits whilst sitting at home watching horse racing on the TV on the other hand will vote strongly for Leavercs1000 said:
18-24 year olds have historically had low-turnout, and the old have traditionally had high turnoutJamesP said:
*Anecdote Alert* During the 2010 General Election, my university had a polling station for the roughly 1500 people living on campus. Apparently turnout was around 30%, yes some people may have voted in their home constituency, by post, but I don't suspect the number was particularly great, I only know of two people who did and one them was myself. Maybe the EU Referendum will enthuse a higher turnout, personally I doubt whether students 18-24, will be able to get to 50% turnout.nunu said:Remain relying on 18-24 year olds in full time education. Lol. Their turnout will be 55℅ at best.
Good for Leave
ABs and the university educated usually turn up to vote, and those without qualifications or in C2 or DE are less likely to
Good for Remain
I think TC has this one right; if the WWC turns up, it's Leave. If they don't, it's Remain.0 -
You might not accept it, but they are. You may think it irrational, they though should think about threat to their jobs, but most don't appear to care - or they think there's threats to those anyway, so why not express the anger they have toward the EU and the government.MarkSenior said:
I don't accept that it is the WWC who are voting in strength for Leave . The WWC I suspect will think about the threat to their jobs and vote Remain . The WNWC , the unemployed and shirkers who expect to receive benefits whilst sitting at home watching horse racing on the TV on the other hand will vote strongly for Leavercs1000 said:
18-24 year olds have historically had low-turnout, and the old have traditionally had high turnoutJamesP said:
*Anecdote Alert* During the 2010 General Election, my university had a polling station for the roughly 1500 people living on campus. Apparently turnout was around 30%, yes some people may have voted in their home constituency, by post, but I don't suspect the number was particularly great, I only know of two people who did and one them was myself. Maybe the EU Referendum will enthuse a higher turnout, personally I doubt whether students 18-24, will be able to get to 50% turnout.nunu said:Remain relying on 18-24 year olds in full time education. Lol. Their turnout will be 55℅ at best.
Good for Leave
ABs and the university educated usually turn up to vote, and those without qualifications or in C2 or DE are less likely to
Good for Remain
I think TC has this one right; if the WWC turns up, it's Leave. If they don't, it's Remain.
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When we gave being a land fit for heroes and became one of a land fit for the bone idle.FrankBooth said:Given the US has the 4th July, what about the 5th July? It would make things easier what with the inter-connected banking system. And 5th July is the anniversary of the 1945 general election.
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I have a degree in Italian and I'm voting to leave!RepublicanTory said:KentRising said:
On the other hand, young people tend to be foolish and thus it's only for the good that their decisions are somewhat diluted by older and wiser heads!Anorak said:So, putting it simply, the people most likely to swing a leave vote are those who currently contribute the least, and those who will have to live with the consequences for the shortest amount of time.
Ain't democracy grand.
I've got three degrees and I'm voting Leave. I acknowledge that I am unusual...0 -
What's wrong with 23rd June?FrankBooth said:Given the US has the 4th July, what about the 5th July? It would make things easier what with the inter-connected banking system. And 5th July is the anniversary of the 1945 general election.
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I agree entirely. I keep my politics well away from my colleagues at work (especially when I have to cross a UCU picket line). My impression is that students are more interested in exam results, football, Glastonbury/festivals/summer holidays in that order at the moment.KentRising said:
They are, indeed, in English Literature! Moving in university circles, one learns to keep one's Leave tendencies under one's hat, somewhat. From my experience, it is a tremendous blessing that, for all their bluster on politics, the young tend not to bother voting. They can tell you all about the latest muisc apps on their space phones, but not who the Chancellor is, or who was PM before Tony Blair. Scary really.nunu said:
What are ur degrees in. If you have one in English literature you can tell us when a politician is waffaling!KentRising said:
On the other hand, young people tend to be foolish and thus it's only for the good that their decisions are somewhat diluted by older and wiser heads!Anorak said:So, putting it simply, the people most likely to swing a leave vote are those who currently contribute the least, and those who will have to live with the consequences for the shortest amount of time.
Ain't democracy grand.
I've got three degrees and I'm voting Leave. I acknowledge that I am unsual...0 -
We shall see on Thursday who is right .kle4 said:
You might not accept it, but they are. You may think it irrational, they though should think about threat to their jobs, but most don't appear to care - or they think there's threats to those anyway, so why not express the anger they have toward the EU and the government.MarkSenior said:
I don't accept that it is the WWC who are voting in strength for Leave . The WWC I suspect will think about the threat to their jobs and vote Remain . The WNWC , the unemployed and shirkers who expect to receive benefits whilst sitting at home watching horse racing on the TV on the other hand will vote strongly for Leavercs1000 said:
18-24 year olds have historically had low-turnout, and the old have traditionally had high turnoutJamesP said:
*Anecdote Alert* During the 2010 General Election, my university had a polling station for the roughly 1500 people living on campus. Apparently turnout was around 30%, yes some people may have voted in their home constituency, by post, but I don't suspect the number was particularly great, I only know of two people who did and one them was myself. Maybe the EU Referendum will enthuse a higher turnout, personally I doubt whether students 18-24, will be able to get to 50% turnout.nunu said:Remain relying on 18-24 year olds in full time education. Lol. Their turnout will be 55℅ at best.
Good for Leave
ABs and the university educated usually turn up to vote, and those without qualifications or in C2 or DE are less likely to
Good for Remain
I think TC has this one right; if the WWC turns up, it's Leave. If they don't, it's Remain.0 -
More bloody experts
@Breakingviews: Brexit could trigger a liquidity migraine. @swahapattanaik https://t.co/9uZQRipF2D https://t.co/ceHEkFXy5K
Luckily, nobody is listening to them...0 -
She should form the apathetic party and campaign for other youngsters not to vote - if she can be bothered.nunu said:
They already have. But turnout will be below 60℅ for the youth I am certain. Since i am a mature student in his first year. They are so disenganged, my houshold is political and my 18 year old sister wont vote.What do others think?MarkHopkins said:JamesP said:
*Anecdote Alert* During the 2010 General Election, my university had a polling station for the roughly 1500 people living on campus. Apparently turnout was around 30%, yes some people may have voted in their home constituency, by post, but I don't suspect the number was particularly great, I only know of two people who did and one them was myself. Maybe the EU Referendum will enthuse a higher turnout, personally I doubt whether students 18-24, will be able to get to 50% turnout.nunu said:Remain relying on 18-24 year olds in full time education. Lol. Their turnout will be 55℅ at best.
When do the Uni's break up for summer?
My son is doing a conversion course and will definitely vote (Remain). Mind you he actually joined the Liberal Democrats. Hopefully age and real life will teach him wisdom.0 -
Mark Senior - the white non-working class aren't actually that numerous or didn't your government preside over a 'jobs miracle' after all? They are also I suspect (and here I'm probably bringing in my own prejudice) extremely difficult to get to the polling station. I'd be very surprised if they had a high turnout %. I'm also not entirely sure why we have to bring race into it. Are the NWWC much more likely to vote remain?0
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There will be very few C1's sitting in Camden and Hampstead unless they are in social housing.0
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Good afternoon, everybody.
I'm intrigued by one item in the Leave diagram, nothing to do with the referendum at all.
The top line @148 is 'No formal education' whilst the line @117 is 'Educated at secondary level'.
Therefore, presumably, 'No formal education' means people who didn't even go to secondary school.
Wikipedia says that the school leaving age was raised to 15 [from 14] in 1947 by the Education Act of 1944.
So does that mean that the whole of the top line is populated by those born before 1932 (74+) plus those who arrived here without education later? Or is there some other wrinkle?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_education_in_England
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What makes you think voters are like ice skating judges voting about the campaign. People have had years to decide this one?Jason said:The stuffing has been knocked out of the Leave campaign, I hate to say it, but it looks over to me. Unless Boris has the performance of a lifetime on Tuesday, I can't see any other result than a comfortable Remain win.
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It's not clear to me why the government should be in the business of legislating when people work.SandyRentool said:
They could call themselves The Popular Partyrcs1000 said:
Not another f*cking bank holiday please.Fenster said:Boris should go on telly on Weds and offer the final Friday in June as a national bank holiday called British Independence Day.
That'd set the cat among the pigeons.
I'd vote for any political party that offered to cut it back to two: New Year's day and one in the summer.
Not.0 -
I've done several canvassing sessions with Labour In in London - admittedly it's a borough identified as leaning to Remain but the results have been overwhelming - you're looking at more than 70% remain - perhaps 80% assuming the don't knows split 50-50. Leavers are a tiny minority, even in social housing estates.taffys said:''Sitting in Hampstead, and I realise I'm getting a very London-centric view, I'm not sure I agree. It's 29-1 in my office, and I've counted North of 30 Remain posters in my 'hood at the weekend, against zero for Leave.''
Indeed, but ABC1 takes many forms. JohnO has posted how shocked he was at the support for Leave in Elmbridge, which is Britain's taxpayer powerhouse.
I have a feeling when some pollsters think ABC1 they think well paid public sector civil servants - but anyway, we shall see.0 -
Indeed, it's my birthday as well as being very adjacent to the summer Solstice.RobD said:
What's wrong with 23rd June?FrankBooth said:Given the US has the 4th July, what about the 5th July? It would make things easier what with the inter-connected banking system. And 5th July is the anniversary of the 1945 general election.
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I didn't say it does nor that it should. Apart from the fact people have perfectly sensible reasons for making their individual and different choices - as a generalisation I think Leave is a rational choice for older people, as I said at the start.HurstLlama said:
Mr 43, A child may well have a different view on an issue from its parent. That does not however stop the parent from doing what it thinks it is in the best interest of the child, and nor should it.FF43 said:
The issue with that is that their children and grandchildren have a different view from them as to where their own interests lie. I don't intend to denigrate older people's viewpoints and I can see it might have come across that I do. It's that the world is a different place from what it was in the seventies and before.HurstLlama said:
Most pensioners do not care as much about themselves as they do about the futures of their children and grandchildren. Please take that as a starting point and then think about why the vote as they do.FF43 said:
They are people who have been left behind by globalisation. Either old dogs who don't want to learn new tricks or dogs who never had any tricks. I don't think they are right about the EU, but leaving is a rational choice for them and I think their thinking deserves some understanding.Anorak said:So, putting it simply, the people most likely to swing a leave vote are those who currently contribute the least, and those who will have to live with the consequences for the shortest amount of time.
Ain't democracy grand.0 -
Did you not see the question time with Dave. This not listening to experts meme is not going to help Remain. People just don't believe them anymore. Not saying its a good thing. Just the way it is.Scott_P said:More bloody experts
@Breakingviews: Brexit could trigger a liquidity migraine. @swahapattanaik https://t.co/9uZQRipF2D https://t.co/ceHEkFXy5K
Luckily, nobody is listening to them...0 -
Yes based on polling evidence . Around 6 weeks ago ( ICM IIRC ) had a poll which showed Leave being favoured by only 2 groups the Unemployed and the Retired . You and several other Leavers on here got quite upset with me when I pointed this out .Sean_F said:
Is that assertion based upon polling evidence or sheer prejudice?MarkSenior said:
I don't accept that it is the WWC who are voting in strength for Leave . The WWC I suspect will think about the threat to their jobs and vote Remain . The WNWC , the unemployed and shirkers who expect to receive benefits whilst sitting at home watching horse racing on the TV on the other hand will vote strongly for Leavercs1000 said:
18-24 year olds have historically had low-turnout, and the old have traditionally had high turnoutJamesP said:
*Anecdote Alert* During the 2010 General Election, my university had a polling station for the roughly 1500 people living on campus. Apparently turnout was around 30%, yes some people may have voted in their home constituency, by post, but I don't suspect the number was particularly great, I only know of two people who did and one them was myself. Maybe the EU Referendum will enthuse a higher turnout, personally I doubt whether students 18-24, will be able to get to 50% turnout.nunu said:Remain relying on 18-24 year olds in full time education. Lol. Their turnout will be 55℅ at best.
Good for Leave
ABs and the university educated usually turn up to vote, and those without qualifications or in C2 or DE are less likely to
Good for Remain
I think TC has this one right; if the WWC turns up, it's Leave. If they don't, it's Remain.0 -
Yes, Glastonbury starts on Wednesday, we are now into (albeit rainy) festival season and students will be doing other things. If the referendum had been early May like a GE, it might have been different.TudorRose said:
I agree entirely. I keep my politics well away from my colleagues at work (especially when I have to cross a UCU picket line). My impression is that students are more interested in exam results, football, Glastonbury/festivals/summer holidays in that order at the moment.KentRising said:
They are, indeed, in English Literature! Moving in university circles, one learns to keep one's Leave tendencies under one's hat, somewhat. From my experience, it is a tremendous blessing that, for all their bluster on politics, the young tend not to bother voting. They can tell you all about the latest muisc apps on their space phones, but not who the Chancellor is, or who was PM before Tony Blair. Scary really.nunu said:
What are ur degrees in. If you have one in English literature you can tell us when a politician is waffaling!KentRising said:
On the other hand, young people tend to be foolish and thus it's only for the good that their decisions are somewhat diluted by older and wiser heads!Anorak said:So, putting it simply, the people most likely to swing a leave vote are those who currently contribute the least, and those who will have to live with the consequences for the shortest amount of time.
Ain't democracy grand.
I've got three degrees and I'm voting Leave. I acknowledge that I am unsual...0 -
Mainly because remain are too busy dianifying to propagate it?Scott_P said:More bloody experts
@Breakingviews: Brexit could trigger a liquidity migraine. @swahapattanaik https://t.co/9uZQRipF2D https://t.co/ceHEkFXy5K
Luckily, nobody is listening to them...0 -
@ftwestminster: Brexiters split into nice and nasty camps https://t.co/26jeLWh7yV0
