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SystemSystem Posts: 12,676
edited June 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Cyclefree on What Do They Mean By That?

“What did he mean by that?” Metternich is reported to have said on hearing of the death of Talleyrand, Napoleon’s wily diplomat. The same question will be asked in the Chancelleries of Europe and elsewhere should Britain vote to leave the EU.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,946
    edited June 2016
    Thanks Cycle.

    And first.

    Like the formidable Andrea Leadsom! :smiley:
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    edited June 2016
    Second! And I also second a lot of what Cyclefree says. Whether we end up opting for Remain or for Leave, a lot of unpleasant extemists (one way or the other) will seize upon the result to justify support for increasingly extreme measures.

    Cameron`s fault, of course. He ought to have been much more precise with the wording of his question. But since it was intended only to paper over the cracks in the Tory Party, presumably that was not very important to him
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 67,081
    Very good article and I am a No 5 remainer. I had a thought yesterday as leave gain traction if any on leave may just have some worries that on leaving the fears expressed by so many become a very quick reality and there is a very big backlash as people lose their jobs and investment in the UK fails to materialise. I read that another 39 billion went from UK assets yesterday.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,883
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Good article, Miss Cyclefree. Your latter comments on winner-takes-all reminds me of Morsi, who won a narrow electoral victory in Egypt, acted as if he were dictator for life, and promptly got ousted by the military.

    F1: P3 to commence imminently.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    edited June 2016
    Looks like Cyclefree is holding on the handle-bars for dear life.

    If, as I suspect, there is less than a 2%/3% gap between Remain and Leave, however the outcome, the coming year will be fraught with danger for the UK body politic.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,779
    edited June 2016
    Interesting analysis, Cyclefree. The only point I'd query is the implied assumption that the EU is itching to punge full speed ahead. I don't think they are at all, though some individuals are. The current neuralgic atmosphere in Britain is elevating every suggestion from any quarter to a firm EU intention (that supposedly imminent EU army is a good example, as are the excited interpretations of anything that Martin Schultz, the Boris Johnson of Europhiles, says).

    In reality the EU will move very slowly, not necessarily out of deference to Britain but because that's what they do. In the same way, if we decide to withdraw, the discussions on how to do it will take at least 2 years and will probably need a few extensions.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,946
    Hmmmmm...

    Philip Green Vs Frank Field

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36506266

    Is it not within Parliaments remit to subpoena witnesses?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,946
    MikeK said:

    Looks like Cyclefree is holding on the handle-bars for dear life.

    If, as I suspect, there is less than a 2%/3% gap between Remain and Leave, however the outcome, the coming year will be fraught with danger for the UK body politic.

    I'm not sure... I have a feeling people may "move" decisively one way or another in the closing days.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    FPT
    HurstLlama said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    HurstLlama said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    viewcode said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    MarkSenior said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    viewcode said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    It is delivering neither stability nor prosperity.

    And yet Leave are advocating leaving the EU and EEA and recasting all relationships unilaterally: the option that will deliver the least stability and prosperity.
    Stability is only desirable if you're stably good. Instability is better than being stably bad. It is called seeking opportunities and creativity.
    It is called committing economic suicide
    Sclerosis is perpetual stability. Suicide is perpetual stability. Poverty is perpetual stability. Death is perpetual stability.

    Creativity, seeking opportunities, inventiveness and growth are unstable.
    But too much instability and seeking opportunities are likewise bad. I appreciate you think the change-rich post-Brexit environment will be good, but others assess it differently.
    Considering the EU is growing slower than the rest of the world, both developed and developing, the evidence is that our current "stability" isn't working.
    No offence, Mr. Thompson, but "growth" is not a useful measure of peoples' wealth. A country with an economy that is expanding simply because it has a rapidly growing population is not actually one that is providing an increasing standard of living for its people.
    It's possible to measure using GDP/capita to take that into account and it doesn't make the EU look any better.
    Indeed, Mr. Thompson, but how many politicians, commentators do?

    Since about 2008 the concentration of attention seems to me to have been on raw GDP even though probably not one in ten commentators have a clue what that means and some of those who (or at anyrate should, like HM Treasury) report the figures as if they reflected wealth.
    I'd say most reasonable commentators (not the same as media pundits) do look at per capita. Especially if making international comparisons.

    Very often it is ignored though you're right.
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    edited June 2016
    If the referendum outcome is close, either way, a fair minded EU should conclude that after more than 40 years of membership, the British feel seriously disadvantaged by continuing to remain as a part of it.
    We are not a bloody-minded or peevish people, quite the opposite in fact. Such a vote should be taken as a clarion call that the fair-minded British are far from happy with their lot and with the way the EU affects their lives.
    Over time, I suspect we will not be alone, not by any means. But will the powers that be inside this unaccountable body heed the warning? I very much doubt it.
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited June 2016
    Cyclefree "The consent of the governed needs to be earned between votes not just at the moment of elections or referenda. Can the EU learn this lesson?"

    Looking back at past rejections by various countries of Treaty changes and the action that the EU took in the light of them which has been to avoid ever needing to ask the people for approval.... We can conclude that the EU has not learned this lesson and is unlikely to improve how it operates to meet legitimate concerns within the UK, if we vote REMAIN. They seem to be completely incapable of addressing democracritc concerns.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    FPT

    This seems pertinent:

    A friend of mine is a shrink, she has a big thing re *personal values*. If someone accuses you/crosses those lines = it's visceral. You're stung by it and rarely see them in the same light ever again. Most of us don't forgive either.

    That's what Remain has done again and again to a large slab of the population - and to Tories/Old Labour in particular. Once your own team has insulted you - why help them or support them again? They've become Them not Us.
  • daodaodaodao Posts: 821
    Much of the above may be valid, in that many will vote Remain grudgingly to hang onto nurse for fear of something worse, particularly economically. However, a vote for Remain will be correctly viewed by the EU and leading European countries as a commitment by the UK to progress to ever closer union. I was led to believe that proposals for a single European army will be tabled by the end of June (but after 23rd).

    You state that "The winner in a democratic election always needs to remember that they have to rule for and over those who did not vote for them." The key reason for this is that there will be another election in a few years. This caveat does not apply for the referendum on 23/6, as it is unlikely that there would be another such vote soon. The UK's bluff will have been called and there will no prospect for a generation or more of having another chance to reverse the decision made in the early 1970's to join the EEC.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    daodao said:

    Much of the above may be valid, in that many will vote Remain grudgingly to hang onto nurse for fear of something worse, particularly economically. However, a vote for Remain will be correctly viewed by the EU and leading European countries as a commitment by the UK to progress to ever closer union. I was led to believe that proposals for a single European army will be tabled by the end of June (but after 23rd).

    You state that "The winner in a democratic election always needs to remember that they have to rule for and over those who did not vote for them." The key reason for this is that there will be another election in a few years. This caveat does not apply for the referendum on 23/6, as it is unlikely that there would be another such vote soon. The UK's bluff will have been called and there will no prospect for a generation or more of having another chance to reverse the decision made in the early 1970's to join the EEC.

    Yup.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    edited June 2016
    PlatoSaid said:

    daodao said:

    Much of the above may be valid, in that many will vote Remain grudgingly to hang onto nurse for fear of something worse, particularly economically. However, a vote for Remain will be correctly viewed by the EU and leading European countries as a commitment by the UK to progress to ever closer union. I was led to believe that proposals for a single European army will be tabled by the end of June (but after 23rd).

    You state that "The winner in a democratic election always needs to remember that they have to rule for and over those who did not vote for them." The key reason for this is that there will be another election in a few years. This caveat does not apply for the referendum on 23/6, as it is unlikely that there would be another such vote soon. The UK's bluff will have been called and there will no prospect for a generation or more of having another chance to reverse the decision made in the early 1970's to join the EEC.

    Yup.
    And more Yup! If the UK votes to Remain it is doomed as a self governing nation.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,187
    Excellent article, Cyclefree.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,200
    Good article. Leave battlebus out in Epping high street this afternoon along with IDS, Carswell, Tim Collins and David Burrowes
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    That's a petty good try at a slippery topic. To number two, wherein I count myself, I would add to the "grit" analogy the aspect of "mass" or "inertia" in the sense of stability against sudden careens & lurches.

    I say: We are big and strong. Have confidence.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Very good article and I am a No 5 remainer. I had a thought yesterday as leave gain traction if any on leave may just have some worries that on leaving the fears expressed by so many become a very quick reality and there is a very big backlash as people lose their jobs and investment in the UK fails to materialise. I read that another 39 billion went from UK assets yesterday.

    The £39 billion is absolute nonsense. What that really means is that the FTSE was down (well within its normal daily variances) but it has absolutely nothing to do with the referendum and the FTSE actually outperformed other markets.

    FTSE: -1.86%
    AEX: -2.32%
    DAX: -2.52%
    IBEX: -3.18%
    CAC: -2.24%

    The FTSE outperformed all other major European indices.
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    Germany has warned that it will shut Britain out of the single market if voters opt for Brexit in the European Union referendum.

    Wolfgang Schäuble, the finance minister, said the bloc would still work without the United Kingdom and that “at some point the British will realise they have taken the wrong decision”.

    And now the Germans turn on us ....... that's just about a full house.

    Don't all these folk ever stop to consider that we must have some sort of genuinely serious problem with the EU to even contemplate holding a referendum in the first place, thereby being prepared to accept the undeniably enormous risks which would result from the potential outcome. Seemingly not.
  • perdixperdix Posts: 1,806
    daodao said:

    Much of the above may be valid, in that many will vote Remain grudgingly to hang onto nurse for fear of something worse, particularly economically. However, a vote for Remain will be correctly viewed by the EU and leading European countries as a commitment by the UK to progress to ever closer union. I was led to believe that proposals for a single European army will be tabled by the end of June (but after 23rd).

    You state that "The winner in a democratic election always needs to remember that they have to rule for and over those who did not vote for them." The key reason for this is that there will be another election in a few years. This caveat does not apply for the referendum on 23/6, as it is unlikely that there would be another such vote soon. The UK's bluff will have been called and there will no prospect for a generation or more of having another chance to reverse the decision made in the early 1970's to join the EEC.

    A vote to Remain would be viewed incorrectly by the EU as a vote for ever closer union. Cameron's much disparaged negotiation specifically ruled out the UK for that course.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,200
    daodao said:

    Much of the above may be valid, in that many will vote Remain grudgingly to hang onto nurse for fear of something worse, particularly economically. However, a vote for Remain will be correctly viewed by the EU and leading European countries as a commitment by the UK to progress to ever closer union. I was led to believe that proposals for a single European army will be tabled by the end of June (but after 23rd).

    You state that "The winner in a democratic election always needs to remember that they have to rule for and over those who did not vote for them." The key reason for this is that there will be another election in a few years. This caveat does not apply for the referendum on 23/6, as it is unlikely that there would be another such vote soon. The UK's bluff will have been called and there will no prospect for a generation or more of having another chance to reverse the decision made in the early 1970's to join the EEC.

    Unless Remain win by 60% or more there will be no mandate for ever closer union and certainly not the Euro. If Remain win it is more likely to be 51% to 49% and a rising UKIP vote as a consequence and with strong performances by Wilders, Le Pen and the AfD in the Dutch, French and German elections next year I don't think the EU will be in the position to go full speed ahead with further integration anyway
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,784
    "What is undeniable is that the majority of voters have no great love for the EU or for its political project."

    Agreed. And there is polling to confirm our view.

    2014 YouGov Open Europe Survey. "Which of these statements comes closest to your view?: One of (1) A more politically and economically integrated Europe, with substantially more decisions taken at the European level (2) The situation more or less as it is now (3) A less integrated Europe than now with substantially more decisions taken at a national or local level (4) Complete British withdrawal from the European Union"

    All voters split 10/15/37/24 i.e. 25% for more integration or the status quo compared to 61% for less integration or withdrawal
    C2DEs split 8/9/34/31 i.e 17% to 65%

    The party traditionally seeking to represent the working class of this country yet which is currently telling people that the EU is the best thing since sliced bread should particularly take note.

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/pv0teijo60/YG-Archive-140221-OpenEurope-British.pdf
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,200
    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    "What is undeniable is that the majority of voters have no great love for the EU or for its political project."

    Agreed. And there is polling to confirm our view.

    2014 YouGov Open Europe Survey. "Which of these statements comes closest to your view?: One of (1) A more politically and economically integrated Europe, with substantially more decisions taken at the European level (2) The situation more or less as it is now (3) A less integrated Europe than now with substantially more decisions taken at a national or local level (4) Complete British withdrawal from the European Union"

    All voters split 10/15/37/24 i.e. 25% for more integration or the status quo compared to 61% for less integration or withdrawal
    C2DEs split 8/9/34/31 i.e 17% to 65%

    The party traditionally seeking to represent the working class of this country yet which is currently telling people that the EU is the best thing since sliced bread should particularly take note.

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/pv0teijo60/YG-Archive-140221-OpenEurope-British.pdf

    Corbyn was not exactly enthusiastic about all aspects of the EU on The Last Leg last night, he is probably closer to the average working class Labour voter on this than most of his Shadow Cabinet and the leadership candidates last year, if not as much as Field or Stewart
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,960
    edited June 2016
    Thank you, Cyclefree, and good afternoon, everyone.

    I was just reading on the previous thread an article from Der Spiegel, posted by @John_M
    http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/germany-has-much-to-lose-if-britain-leaves-a-1097029.html

    Comes into the category of 'should have thought of that before'.

    Brexit may well affect the UK adversely, but if the EU can't take the UK's concerns seriously in the renegotiations leading up to a referendum, they aren't going to take our concerns seriously ever.

    A Remain win by a single vote will be viewed as problem solved, back to business as usual.

    I'm very disappointed in Mr Cameron. I can only suppose that he never took the UK's concerns seriously either. If he had done, he would (have) acknowledged the attempts at renegotiation had been frustrated and would have recommended Leave.

    (edited to add a missing word)
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,883
    Miss JGP, and others, I agree.

    If Remain wins, the lesson the EU will take is that democratic obstacles must not be allowed to impede the EU's constant expansion.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    perdix said:

    daodao said:

    Much of the above may be valid, in that many will vote Remain grudgingly to hang onto nurse for fear of something worse, particularly economically. However, a vote for Remain will be correctly viewed by the EU and leading European countries as a commitment by the UK to progress to ever closer union. I was led to believe that proposals for a single European army will be tabled by the end of June (but after 23rd).

    You state that "The winner in a democratic election always needs to remember that they have to rule for and over those who did not vote for them." The key reason for this is that there will be another election in a few years. This caveat does not apply for the referendum on 23/6, as it is unlikely that there would be another such vote soon. The UK's bluff will have been called and there will no prospect for a generation or more of having another chance to reverse the decision made in the early 1970's to join the EEC.

    A vote to Remain would be viewed incorrectly by the EU as a vote for ever closer union. Cameron's much disparaged negotiation specifically ruled out the UK for that course.

    That conflicts with the treaties, and hence will be struck down by the ECJ at the first opportunity.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,200
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Miss JGP, and others, I agree.

    If Remain wins, the lesson the EU will take is that democratic obstacles must not be allowed to impede the EU's constant expansion.

    In which case by 2020 it will end up with President Le Pen, PM Wilders and PM Johnson and the whole thing could collapse anyway!
  • Paul_BedfordshirePaul_Bedfordshire Posts: 3,632
    ANECDOTAL.

    She who must be obeyed reports that the overwhelmig consensus of the mothers at the school gate is OUT.

    Among the reasons is that we always come last in the Eurovision song contest so they clearly dont want us!
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    Paul_Bedfordshire said:

    ANECDOTAL.

    She who must be obeyed reports that the overwhelmig consensus of the mothers at the school gate is OUT.

    Among the reasons is that we always come last in the Eurovision song contest so they clearly dont want us!

    Well yes, there is that too!
  • Paul_BedfordshirePaul_Bedfordshire Posts: 3,632
    peter_from_putney said:

    Paul_Bedfordshire said:

    ANECDOTAL.

    She who must be obeyed reports that the overwhelmig consensus of the mothers at the school gate is OUT.

    Among the reasons is that we always come last in the Eurovision song contest so they clearly dont want us!

    Well yes, there is that too!
    No one likes us, we don't care....
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Coming up: Trump in Tampa, FL
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jgmG7FlSxp8

    Then on to Pittsburgh...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,200
    Michael Fabricant
    'When it comes to beer, I’d very much like to see us become more “European”, and start brewing better lager. With hysterical warnings about war, pestilence, and recession should we decide to leave the EU, it is a tad surprising that Remain campaigners haven’t yet moved on to beer. I can picture the headlines now: “Lager will be twice as expensive and half as refreshing if we leave the EU, warns Cameron.”

    But, since I wouldn’t believe that claim either, I’ll still be voting Leave on the 23rd.'
    http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2016/06/michael-fabricant-raise-a-glass-of-lager-to-my-change-of-heart-why-i-now-want-britain-to-become-more-european.html
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,784
    HYUFD said:

    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    "What is undeniable is that the majority of voters have no great love for the EU or for its political project."

    Agreed. And there is polling to confirm our view.

    2014 YouGov Open Europe Survey. "Which of these statements comes closest to your view?: One of (1) A more politically and economically integrated Europe, with substantially more decisions taken at the European level (2) The situation more or less as it is now (3) A less integrated Europe than now with substantially more decisions taken at a national or local level (4) Complete British withdrawal from the European Union"

    All voters split 10/15/37/24 i.e. 25% for more integration or the status quo compared to 61% for less integration or withdrawal
    C2DEs split 8/9/34/31 i.e 17% to 65%

    The party traditionally seeking to represent the working class of this country yet which is currently telling people that the EU is the best thing since sliced bread should particularly take note.

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/pv0teijo60/YG-Archive-140221-OpenEurope-British.pdf

    Corbyn was not exactly enthusiastic about all aspects of the EU on The Last Leg last night, he is probably closer to the average working class Labour voter on this than most of his Shadow Cabinet and the leadership candidates last year, if not as much as Field or Stewart
    I appreciate that you are not a Labour member and may thus be unaware that the Labour Party machinery is currently operating flat out in exactly the same way as it does in general and local elections, not only to deliver a Remain vote but to make it crystal clear to all that this appeal to vote for Remain is coming from the Labour Party, publishing its own distinct material. Leafleting sessions, door knocking sessions, telephone canvassing rotas, appeals for funds, e-mails to members. The party has registered as an organisation campaigning for Remain, in contrast to the Conservative Party which has not registered for either side. It has also prohibited any constituency or ward parties organising debates of the merits of the Remain and Leave campaigns, shutting down opportunities for members to make up their own minds after listening to both views within the party.

    Corbyn has not stood in the way of any of that.

    If Leave does lose narrowly, and there is a backlash much as there was a backlash in Scotland in 2014, goodness knows what that might do to erode Labour's remaining support from its traditional working class base. It is a leap of faith to presume that Leave supporters will not start to (or further) question their past loyalty to Labour in elections.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    Good afternoon all. Ah, Cyclefree, how I have missed thee. Lovely, lucid article.

    I'm a 5. I think Leave's campaign has been poor. Fortunately, Remain's campaign has been risibly bad.

    If Cameron had done better in the renegotiation, I'd have likely voted Remain. I chose to interpret the paucity of his achievement as a symbol that the EU collectively doesn't take British concerns seriously.

    I was genuinely shocked that Cameron then tried to sell it as a good deal. That he's compounded that misjudgement by serially calling me names thereafter has done nothing to endear him to me.

    As a result, I'm politically homeless. But I'm in a better place than Messrs Cameron and Osborne.
  • PAWPAW Posts: 1,074
    If there is a backlash after leave european defence will be torn to shreds - the europeans will have to step up and fund their own army and just as importantly recruit and train for it.
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    Tonight's polls will be interesting, possibly very interesting.
    Should we reach a point where it appears likely that the vote is likely to be for LEAVE (we're still a very long way from that position judging by the betting markets), can we expect Cameron to make a final personal televised appeal to the British people, say a couple of days before polling day? Would he even allowed to do so under the terms of the two sides supposedly having equal access to the media?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,200
    edited June 2016
    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    HYUFD said:

    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    "What is undeniable is that the majority of voters have no great love for the EU or for its political project."

    Agreed. And there is polling to confirm our view.

    2014 YouGov Open Europe Survey. "Which of these statements comes closest to your view?: One of (1) A more politically and economically integrated Europe, with substantially more decisions taken at the European level (2) The situation more or less as it is now (3) A less integrated Europe than now with substantially more decisions taken at a national or local level (4) Complete British withdrawal from the European Union"

    All voters split 10/15/37/24 i.e. 25% for more integration or the status quo compared to 61% for less integration or withdrawal
    C2DEs split 8/9/34/31 i.e 17% to 65%

    The party traditionally seeking to represent the working class of this country yet which is currently telling people that the EU is the best thing since sliced bread should particularly take note.

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/pv0teijo60/YG-Archive-140221-OpenEurope-British.pdf

    Corbyn was not exactly enthusiastic about all aspects of the EU on The Last Leg last night, he is probably closer to the average working class Labour voter on this than most of his Shadow Cabinet and the leadership candidates last year, if not as much as Field or Stewart
    I appreciate that you are not a Labour member and may thus be unaware that the Labour Party machinery is currently operating flat out in exactly the same way as it does in general and local elections, not only to deliver a Remain vote but to make it crystal clear to all that this appeal to vote for Remain is coming from the Labour Party, publishing its own distinct material. Leafleting sessions, door knocking sessions, telephone canvassing rotas, appeals for funds, e-mails to members. The party has registered as an organisation campaigning for Remain, in contrast to the Conservative Party which has not registered for either side. It has also prohibited any constituency or ward parties organising debates of the merits of the Remain and Leave campaigns, shutting down opportunities for members to make up their own minds after listening to both views within the party.

    Corbyn has not stood in the way of any of that.

    If Leave does lose narrowly, and there is a backlash much as there was a backlash in Scotland in 2014, goodness knows what that might do to erode Labour's remaining support from its traditional working class base. It is a leap of faith to presume that Leave supporters will not start to (or further) question their past loyalty to Labour in elections.
    Maybe but that is not what the public see, the public see Cameron leading the Remain campaign and Corbyn doing as little as possible for Remain and only speaking out when he has to that is why many Labour voters are unsure of the party's position

    If Leave does lose narrowly of course Labour will see a bit of a backlash, at least 35% of its voters will have voted Leave and may head to UKIP but that will be as nothing compared to the backlash Cameron will receive when 55% of his voters will have voted Leave and may head in even stronger numbers to UKIP
  • frpenkridgefrpenkridge Posts: 670
    Fabricant is a little rascal, isn't he?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 67,081
    I am sure we can all agree that this referendum has become so unpredictable and the effect on UK and EU politics will have changed politics quite dramatically for good. In the UK the conservative party may or may not keep DC as PM but will continue to govern, labour are so adrift of their WWC support and in their leadership which, with the SNP problem, suggests they will never be in power in the UK as the labour party known to us.

    In Europe the cat is out of the bag (sorry Plato) and the move against the elite is accelerating and by the end of next year following the French and German elections the right may well have enough control to shake down the whole edifice and out of the ruins a more Associate Membership of several non eurozonne Countries will emerge as the core tries to battle with a project that cannot succeed without flexibility on the use of the Euro.

    Anyway times are changing and I am sure we must all agree that everyone needs to come together post 23rd June to prevent a descent into economic chaos effecting all our lives, as we know in these circumstances it will be the poor and disadvantaged that will pay the price.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,946
    peter_from_putney said:

    Tonight's polls will be interesting, possibly very interesting.
    Should we reach a point where it appears likely that the vote is likely to be for LEAVE (we're still a very long way from that position judging by the betting markets), can we expect Cameron to make a final personal televised appeal to the British people, say a couple of days before polling day? Would he even allowed to do so under the terms of the two sides supposedly having equal access to the media?

    Yes, crucial polls coming up.

    I'm not really sure what Cameron could possibly say, beyond what he has already said, to turn public opinion.

    A "vow" won't work unless it comes from the EU but then people would probably just conclude the eurocrats are lying anyway...
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    peter_from_putney said:

    Tonight's polls will be interesting, possibly very interesting.
    Should we reach a point where it appears likely that the vote is likely to be for LEAVE (we're still a very long way from that position judging by the betting markets), can we expect Cameron to make a final personal televised appeal to the British people, say a couple of days before polling day? Would he even allowed to do so under the terms of the two sides supposedly having equal access to the media?

    TBH - would that help? It would portray weakness and I can't bear watching grown-up men cry.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    PAW said:

    If there is a backlash after leave european defence will be torn to shreds - the europeans will have to step up and fund their own army and just as importantly recruit and train for it.

    Well there are plenty of experienced ex-servicemen in the UK willing to step in.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,960
    edited June 2016
    O/T I discovered this site in 2009, and here I am, on my 700th post.

    The number of posts seriously understates the amount of interest & pleasure I have derived from the site, even though I don't bet.

    Thanks to you all, especially OGH, TSE, other contributors and moderators.

    (edited to add: it was supposed to be my 700th post - the previous one claimed I had 699!)

    (edited again; now it is showing 700; will the edit make it 701?)
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 67,081
    peter_from_putney said:

    Tonight's polls will be interesting, possibly very interesting.
    Should we reach a point where it appears likely that the vote is likely to be for LEAVE (we're still a very long way from that position judging by the betting markets), can we expect Cameron to make a final personal televised appeal to the British people, say a couple of days before polling day? Would he even allowed to do so under the terms of the two sides supposedly having equal access to the media?

    I find it hard to believe he would be allowed to do that and indeed it would break the party. I do see an intervention from the Bank of England and even a EU press conference clarifying the EU's position on post leave negotiations on trade with a categoric statement that free movement of labour will be non negotiable
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    peter_from_putney said:

    Tonight's polls will be interesting, possibly very interesting.
    Should we reach a point where it appears likely that the vote is likely to be for LEAVE (we're still a very long way from that position judging by the betting markets), can we expect Cameron to make a final personal televised appeal to the British people, say a couple of days before polling day? Would he even allowed to do so under the terms of the two sides supposedly having equal access to the media?

    Apparently BSE get the last RCB(*) on the 15th. http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b07d6g8y/broadcasts/upcoming

    (*) They obviously aren't PEBs as they aren't put out by parties and this isn't an election...
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    GIN1138 said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    Tonight's polls will be interesting, possibly very interesting.
    Should we reach a point where it appears likely that the vote is likely to be for LEAVE (we're still a very long way from that position judging by the betting markets), can we expect Cameron to make a final personal televised appeal to the British people, say a couple of days before polling day? Would he even allowed to do so under the terms of the two sides supposedly having equal access to the media?

    Yes, crucial polls coming up.

    I'm not really sure what Cameron could possibly say, beyond what he has already said, to turn public opinion.

    A "vow" won't work unless it comes from the EU but then people would probably just conclude the eurocrats are lying anyway...
    If they've any sense, they'll be pounding the 'Oh noes! The economy!' drum 24/7 for the next 12 days.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    "David Cameron’s contribution to the campaign has made 29% of people say they’re more likely to vote Leave whilst just 15% say Cameron has made them more likely to vote Remain. Over half say his contributions have had no impact on their decision (56%). 28% of Conservative supporters are more likely to vote Remain while 25% are more likely to vote Leave highlighting the divide amongst the Conservative party."

    BMG http://www.bmgresearch.co.uk/public-switched-off-wading-eu-referendum-debate/
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,916
    GIN1138 said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    Tonight's polls will be interesting, possibly very interesting.
    Should we reach a point where it appears likely that the vote is likely to be for LEAVE (we're still a very long way from that position judging by the betting markets), can we expect Cameron to make a final personal televised appeal to the British people, say a couple of days before polling day? Would he even allowed to do so under the terms of the two sides supposedly having equal access to the media?

    Yes, crucial polls coming up.

    I'm not really sure what Cameron could possibly say, beyond what he has already said, to turn public opinion.

    A "vow" won't work unless it comes from the EU but then people would probably just conclude the eurocrats are lying anyway...
    A 'vow' would play quite badly in Scotland, which seems to be one of the few parts of the UK which is pro-Remain.

    (Also, don't wheel out Gordon Brown for a last minute 'intervention').
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,328
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    Tonight's polls will be interesting, possibly very interesting.
    Should we reach a point where it appears likely that the vote is likely to be for LEAVE (we're still a very long way from that position judging by the betting markets), can we expect Cameron to make a final personal televised appeal to the British people, say a couple of days before polling day? Would he even allowed to do so under the terms of the two sides supposedly having equal access to the media?

    I find it hard to believe he would be allowed to do that and indeed it would break the party. I do see an intervention from the Bank of England and even a EU press conference clarifying the EU's position on post leave negotiations on trade with a categoric statement that free movement of labour will be non negotiable
    Agreed.

    I would tear up my membership card and encourage everyone else of a similar mind to do the same. Publically.

    I think you'd see cabinet ministers resigning and 30 MPs leaving the party live on the telly.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,602
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    Tonight's polls will be interesting, possibly very interesting.
    Should we reach a point where it appears likely that the vote is likely to be for LEAVE (we're still a very long way from that position judging by the betting markets), can we expect Cameron to make a final personal televised appeal to the British people, say a couple of days before polling day? Would he even allowed to do so under the terms of the two sides supposedly having equal access to the media?

    I find it hard to believe he would be allowed to do that and indeed it would break the party. I do see an intervention from the Bank of England and even a EU press conference clarifying the EU's position on post leave negotiations on trade with a categoric statement that free movement of labour will be non negotiable
    I'm not sure aggressively restating that they want the freedom for all Europe to come to our country at will would be quite the vote winner for Remain you or they would expect.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    peter_from_putney said:

    Germany has warned that it will shut Britain out of the single market if voters opt for Brexit in the European Union referendum.

    Wolfgang Schäuble, the finance minister, said the bloc would still work without the United Kingdom and that “at some point the British will realise they have taken the wrong decision”.

    And now the Germans turn on us ....... that's just about a full house.

    Don't all these folk ever stop to consider that we must have some sort of genuinely serious problem with the EU to even contemplate holding a referendum in the first place, thereby being prepared to accept the undeniably enormous risks which would result from the potential outcome. Seemingly not.

    Well quite - and given the polls, we aren't playing at it either. The penny isn't dropping.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    peter_from_putney said:

    Tonight's polls will be interesting, possibly very interesting.
    Should we reach a point where it appears likely that the vote is likely to be for LEAVE (we're still a very long way from that position judging by the betting markets), can we expect Cameron to make a final personal televised appeal to the British people, say a couple of days before polling day? Would he even allowed to do so under the terms of the two sides supposedly having equal access to the media?

    Cameron is a thoroughly discredited and disliked figure. The best he can do for his cause is to withdraw from the fray.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,387
    I'm currently at the Primrose Hill fair. At least 80% of the people here are wearing In badges (there is a chap handing them out).

    I think this will be the most Remain friendly part of the UK. nice to know it's Sean t's hood.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,328
    John_M said:

    GIN1138 said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    Tonight's polls will be interesting, possibly very interesting.
    Should we reach a point where it appears likely that the vote is likely to be for LEAVE (we're still a very long way from that position judging by the betting markets), can we expect Cameron to make a final personal televised appeal to the British people, say a couple of days before polling day? Would he even allowed to do so under the terms of the two sides supposedly having equal access to the media?

    Yes, crucial polls coming up.

    I'm not really sure what Cameron could possibly say, beyond what he has already said, to turn public opinion.

    A "vow" won't work unless it comes from the EU but then people would probably just conclude the eurocrats are lying anyway...
    If they've any sense, they'll be pounding the 'Oh noes! The economy!' drum 24/7 for the next 12 days.
    I'm not sure how many times I've said this, but that would be the wrong strategy, badly executed.

    Fear has been so devalued (by overstatement and foreign intervention) that even people who accept that there might be a cost think it a price worth paying. It is interesting to see that after trying to make a meal out of Aaron Banks' comments, the Remain campaign have totally dropped that line now.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,200
    rcs1000 said:

    I'm currently at the Primrose Hill fair. At least 80% of the people here are wearing In badges (there is a chap handing them out).

    I think this will be the most Remain friendly part of the UK. nice to know it's Sean t's hood.

    Yes have seen In badges around Oxford Circus too, rather more Leave badges here in Essex
  • DidymousDidymous Posts: 2
    Missing a category. Those who wish to live in a democracy where those who impose the rules, regulations and laws that we have to live by can be removed/changed /chosen by a majority of the demos without recourse to violence. The EU has become its antithesis.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    HYUFD said:

    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    "What is undeniable is that the majority of voters have no great love for the EU or for its political project."

    Agreed. And there is polling to confirm our view.

    2014 YouGov Open Europe Survey. "Which of these statements comes closest to your view?: One of (1) A more politically and economically integrated Europe, with substantially more decisions taken at the European level (2) The situation more or less as it is now (3) A less integrated Europe than now with substantially more decisions taken at a national or local level (4) Complete British withdrawal from the European Union"

    All voters split 10/15/37/24 i.e. 25% for more integration or the status quo compared to 61% for less integration or withdrawal
    C2DEs split 8/9/34/31 i.e 17% to 65%

    The party traditionally seeking to represent the working class of this country yet which is currently telling people that the EU is the best thing since sliced bread should particularly take note.

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/pv0teijo60/YG-Archive-140221-OpenEurope-British.pdf

    Corbyn was not exactly enthusiastic about all aspects of the EU on The Last Leg last night, he is probably closer to the average working class Labour voter on this than most of his Shadow Cabinet and the leadership candidates last year, if not as much as Field or Stewart
    I appreciate that you are not a Labour member and may thus be unaware that the Labour Party machinery is currently operating flat out in exactly the same way as it does in general and local elections, not only to deliver a Remain vote but to make it crystal clear to all that this appeal to vote for Remain is coming from the Labour Party, publishing its own distinct material. Leafleting sessions, door knocking sessions, telephone canvassing rotas, appeals for funds, e-mails to members. The party has registered as an organisation campaigning for Remain, in contrast to the Conservative Party which has not registered for either side. It has also prohibited any constituency or ward parties organising debates of the merits of the Remain and Leave campaigns, shutting down opportunities for members to make up their own minds after listening to both views within the party.

    Corbyn has not stood in the way of any of that.

    If Leave does lose narrowly, and there is a backlash much as there was a backlash in Scotland in 2014, goodness knows what that might do to erode Labour's remaining support from its traditional working class base. It is a leap of faith to presume that Leave supporters will not start to (or further) question their past loyalty to Labour in elections.
    That's fascinating. The Sutton Coldfield debate I saw streamed earlier was organised by the local Cons.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,200
    weejonnie said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    Tonight's polls will be interesting, possibly very interesting.
    Should we reach a point where it appears likely that the vote is likely to be for LEAVE (we're still a very long way from that position judging by the betting markets), can we expect Cameron to make a final personal televised appeal to the British people, say a couple of days before polling day? Would he even allowed to do so under the terms of the two sides supposedly having equal access to the media?

    TBH - would that help? It would portray weakness and I can't bear watching grown-up men cry.
    A televised appeal by Chretien in Quebec in 1995 helped No scrape home
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,784
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    I am sure we can all agree that this referendum has become so unpredictable and the effect on UK and EU politics will have changed politics quite dramatically for good. In the UK the conservative party may or may not keep DC as PM but will continue to govern, labour are so adrift of their WWC support and in their leadership which, with the SNP problem, suggests they will never be in power in the UK as the labour party known to us.

    Labour's one chance of keeping or regaining WWC support might ironically arise as a consequence of the very referendum result that it the party is campaigning to prevent. In the event of a Leave vote, with subsequent action being taken to limit EU migration, the salience of both the EU and migration issues might disappear and others would come to the fore. But if there's a Remain vote, those issues will continue to fester at least as much as now, and in that circumstance I agree with your conclusion.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,383
    I used to be 4, now I'm 6.
    AnneJGP said:


    A Remain win by a single vote will be viewed as problem solved, back to business as usual.
    )

    That is indeed the problem. They'll say otherwise, but whenever 'populism' rears its head encouraging noises are made about recognising problems and making changes, that sort of thing, then it's back to utter contempt for anyone not in full throated support for total integration from the bureaucrats, and silence from the elected leaders who have their own troubles to deal with.

    On the other hand, statements we might be punished if we leave might not be the case. I personally think they will, as I am thinking of the IndyRef. It was claimed that rUK would treat a newly independent Scotland fairly as it would be in their own benefit to do so, and I hoped that would be the case, but my own initial reaction would have been, in hurt, to lash out, and that has to be a possibility. I'm sure it would be a popular move in Europe even if not in their best interests. But it may be they are saying they would punish us now, in part to encourage group 4s, but in reality would not.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    edited June 2016
    That BMG Poll - shows that Corbyn has been a better recruiter for LEAVE than Nigel Farage.

    The two best recruiters (other than David Cameron):

    Barack Obama and Donald Trump - on +8% and +9% for LEAVE respectively.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,751
    NickPalmer said:

    Interesting analysis, Cyclefree. The only point I'd query is the implied assumption that the EU is itching to punge full speed ahead. I don't think they are at all, though some individuals are. The current neuralgic atmosphere in Britain is elevating every suggestion from any quarter to a firm EU intention (that supposedly imminent EU army is a good example, as are the excited interpretations of anything that Martin Schultz, the Boris Johnson of Europhiles, says).

    In reality the EU will move very slowly, not necessarily out of deference to Britain but because that's what they do. In the same way, if we decide to withdraw, the discussions on how to do it will take at least 2 years and will probably need a few extensions.

    Thank you. Your first point is one reason why I thought it worthwhile inviting EU leaders to tell us how they envisage the EU developing (as I mentioned in a previous thread header). I understand why it hasn't been done but I think it a mistake, nonetheless. Silly to make such an important decision without hearing from our EU colleagues.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,883
    Mr. Didymous, welcome to PB.com.

    Miss Plato, is there a video of that debate?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,383
    Didymous said:

    Missing a category. Those who wish to live in a democracy where those who impose the rules, regulations and laws that we have to live by can be removed/changed /chosen by a majority of the demos without recourse to violence. The EU has become its antithesis.

    I think that falls within 8, which may require subcategories.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,387
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I'm currently at the Primrose Hill fair. At least 80% of the people here are wearing In badges (there is a chap handing them out).

    I think this will be the most Remain friendly part of the UK. nice to know it's Sean t's hood.

    Yes have seen In badges around Oxford Circus too, rather more Leave badges here in Essex
    I'm increasingly thinking it would be fairest to split the UK. There are two incompatible visions of the country and it would be best to acknowledge that, rather than force 50% of the people into a settlement which does not suit them.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    John_M said:

    GIN1138 said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    Tonight's polls will be interesting, possibly very interesting.
    Should we reach a point where it appears likely that the vote is likely to be for LEAVE (we're still a very long way from that position judging by the betting markets), can we expect Cameron to make a final personal televised appeal to the British people, say a couple of days before polling day? Would he even allowed to do so under the terms of the two sides supposedly having equal access to the media?

    Yes, crucial polls coming up.

    I'm not really sure what Cameron could possibly say, beyond what he has already said, to turn public opinion.

    A "vow" won't work unless it comes from the EU but then people would probably just conclude the eurocrats are lying anyway...
    If they've any sense, they'll be pounding the 'Oh noes! The economy!' drum 24/7 for the next 12 days.
    John Scarlett penned a Times article today on why Brexit endangers security - again. His arse was handed to him.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,883
    Mr. 1000, why?

    By that logic, you'd split Scotland after their referendum.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Didymous said:

    Missing a category. Those who wish to live in a democracy where those who impose the rules, regulations and laws that we have to live by can be removed/changed /chosen by a majority of the demos without recourse to violence. The EU has become its antithesis.

    Welcome, Sir/Lady?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,200
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I'm currently at the Primrose Hill fair. At least 80% of the people here are wearing In badges (there is a chap handing them out).

    I think this will be the most Remain friendly part of the UK. nice to know it's Sean t's hood.

    Yes have seen In badges around Oxford Circus too, rather more Leave badges here in Essex
    I'm increasingly thinking it would be fairest to split the UK. There are two incompatible visions of the country and it would be best to acknowledge that, rather than force 50% of the people into a settlement which does not suit them.
    I don't think the majority of the population would back splitting the UK over the EU except a few of the fanatics on either side, it is just close elections as this is produce a divided nation, this even more so as it is urban v rural, middle class v working class, young v old etc
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,387
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. 1000, why?

    By that logic, you'd split Scotland after their referendum.

    Maybe the UK, as an entity, has run its course. Maybe we are simply too divided.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    HYUFD said:

    weejonnie said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    Tonight's polls will be interesting, possibly very interesting.
    Should we reach a point where it appears likely that the vote is likely to be for LEAVE (we're still a very long way from that position judging by the betting markets), can we expect Cameron to make a final personal televised appeal to the British people, say a couple of days before polling day? Would he even allowed to do so under the terms of the two sides supposedly having equal access to the media?

    TBH - would that help? It would portray weakness and I can't bear watching grown-up men cry.
    A televised appeal by Chretien in Quebec in 1995 helped No scrape home
    I assume he was liked as much then as Mr Cameron is today. Not to mention that there would be problems in respect of fairness of media courage - however I am sure the BBC could show 4 minutes of boring Leave campaigning immediately afterwards.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,200
    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    I am sure we can all agree that this referendum has become so unpredictable and the effect on UK and EU politics will have changed politics quite dramatically for good. In the UK the conservative party may or may not keep DC as PM but will continue to govern, labour are so adrift of their WWC support and in their leadership which, with the SNP problem, suggests they will never be in power in the UK as the labour party known to us.

    Labour's one chance of keeping or regaining WWC support might ironically arise as a consequence of the very referendum result that it the party is campaigning to prevent. In the event of a Leave vote, with subsequent action being taken to limit EU migration, the salience of both the EU and migration issues might disappear and others would come to the fore. But if there's a Remain vote, those issues will continue to fester at least as much as now, and in that circumstance I agree with your conclusion.
    Labour will win again when it wins back much of the middle class, regardless of what happens with the working class
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,751
    Didymous said:

    Missing a category. Those who wish to live in a democracy where those who impose the rules, regulations and laws that we have to live by can be removed/changed /chosen by a majority of the demos without recourse to violence. The EU has become its antithesis.

    I had taken that as a given. I assume that all of us are democrats. Some think that democracy is best served by sharing sovereignty in a supranational organisation such as the EU. It's not a view I share. One of the concerns I have is that the current way the EU is organised is to force people to choose between democracy or the current idea of Europe. That is why I would like a better version of the EU but I do not see it on offer.

    But I do not wish to assume that those who on balance think they should vote Remain are not democrats. I dislike the way dishonourable motives are attributed to those who are on the other side of the argument. There are honourable reasons for being either pro-Leave
    or pro-Remain.

    Disagreement is not some sort of moral failing.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,387
    Cyclefree said:

    Didymous said:

    Missing a category. Those who wish to live in a democracy where those who impose the rules, regulations and laws that we have to live by can be removed/changed /chosen by a majority of the demos without recourse to violence. The EU has become its antithesis.

    I had taken that as a given. I assume that all of us are democrats. Some think that democracy is best served by sharing sovereignty in a supranational organisation such as the EU. It's not a view I share. One of the concerns I have is that the current way the EU is organised is to force people to choose between democracy or the current idea of Europe. That is why I would like a better version of the EU but I do not see it on offer.

    But I do not wish to assume that those who on balance think they should vote Remain are not democrats. I dislike the way dishonourable motives are attributed to those who are on the other side of the argument. There are honourable reasons for being either pro-Leave
    or pro-Remain.

    Disagreement is not some sort of moral failing.
    Hear, hear.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,439
    I know Cameron warned about WWIII if we voted for Brexit, but it seems in Marseille it has already started. Apparently it has kicked off big style again today.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    I am sure we can all agree that this referendum has become so unpredictable and the effect on UK and EU politics will have changed politics quite dramatically for good. In the UK the conservative party may or may not keep DC as PM but will continue to govern, labour are so adrift of their WWC support and in their leadership which, with the SNP problem, suggests they will never be in power in the UK as the labour party known to us.

    Labour's one chance of keeping or regaining WWC support might ironically arise as a consequence of the very referendum result that it the party is campaigning to prevent. In the event of a Leave vote, with subsequent action being taken to limit EU migration, the salience of both the EU and migration issues might disappear and others would come to the fore. But if there's a Remain vote, those issues will continue to fester at least as much as now, and in that circumstance I agree with your conclusion.
    This referendum has opened a whole can of worms the Establishment didn't want to recognise or seriously deal with.

    Now all of us who've been named called as weird, xenophobes, racist, cranks, backwoodmen et al have discovered 50% of the population agree with us.

    We're no longer the fringe - we're mainstream. Our views are shared across parties. If we don't make it over the line on the 23rd - we're not going to shut up either.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,383
    NickPalmer said:

    Interesting analysis, Cyclefree. The only point I'd query is the implied assumption that the EU is itching to punge full speed ahead. I don't think they are at all, though some individuals are. The current neuralgic atmosphere in Britain is elevating every suggestion from any quarter to a firm EU intention (that supposedly imminent EU army is a good example, as are the excited interpretations of anything that Martin Schultz, the Boris Johnson of Europhiles, says).

    In reality the EU will move very slowly, not necessarily out of deference to Britain but because that's what they do. In the same way, if we decide to withdraw, the discussions on how to do it will take at least 2 years and will probably need a few extensions.

    You criticise that any suggestion is raised to the level of a firm EU intention, which may well be a fair point, but then you say that in reality the EU will move very slowly...but that is a separate point, not related to whether we in Britain misinterpret the inevitable endgame, just that things may not be imminent.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    I know Cameron warned about WWIII if we voted for Brexit, but it seems in Marseille it has already started. Apparently it has kicked off big style again today.

    It's all part of plan B

    Get them to chuck us out.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Didymous, welcome to PB.com.

    Miss Plato, is there a video of that debate?

    I don't know - try Central Independent News on YouTube - they ran the streaming.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,387
    PlatoSaid said:

    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    I am sure we can all agree that this referendum has become so unpredictable and the effect on UK and EU politics will have changed politics quite dramatically for good. In the UK the conservative party may or may not keep DC as PM but will continue to govern, labour are so adrift of their WWC support and in their leadership which, with the SNP problem, suggests they will never be in power in the UK as the labour party known to us.

    Labour's one chance of keeping or regaining WWC support might ironically arise as a consequence of the very referendum result that it the party is campaigning to prevent. In the event of a Leave vote, with subsequent action being taken to limit EU migration, the salience of both the EU and migration issues might disappear and others would come to the fore. But if there's a Remain vote, those issues will continue to fester at least as much as now, and in that circumstance I agree with your conclusion.
    This referendum has opened a whole can of worms the Establishment didn't want to recognise or seriously deal with.

    Now all of us who've been named called as weird, xenophobes, racist, cranks, backwoodmen et al have discovered 50% of the population agree with us.

    We're no longer the fringe - we're mainstream. Our views are shared across parties. If we don't make it over the line on the 23rd - we're not going to shut up either.
    And if you assume we get 50.1%, are we going to declare "we are the masters now"?

    Whoever wins needs to recognise the country is deeply split on this issue. Anyone ruling for 50.01% of the population is doing this country a great disservice.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,200
    rcs1000 said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. 1000, why?

    By that logic, you'd split Scotland after their referendum.

    Maybe the UK, as an entity, has run its course. Maybe we are simply too divided.
    You might as well let the southern US secede again too then
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,916
    PlatoSaid said:

    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    I am sure we can all agree that this referendum has become so unpredictable and the effect on UK and EU politics will have changed politics quite dramatically for good. In the UK the conservative party may or may not keep DC as PM but will continue to govern, labour are so adrift of their WWC support and in their leadership which, with the SNP problem, suggests they will never be in power in the UK as the labour party known to us.

    Labour's one chance of keeping or regaining WWC support might ironically arise as a consequence of the very referendum result that it the party is campaigning to prevent. In the event of a Leave vote, with subsequent action being taken to limit EU migration, the salience of both the EU and migration issues might disappear and others would come to the fore. But if there's a Remain vote, those issues will continue to fester at least as much as now, and in that circumstance I agree with your conclusion.
    This referendum has opened a whole can of worms the Establishment didn't want to recognise or seriously deal with.

    Now all of us who've been named called as weird, xenophobes, racist, cranks, backwoodmen et al have discovered 50% of the population agree with us.

    We're no longer the fringe - we're mainstream. Our views are shared across parties. If we don't make it over the line on the 23rd - we're not going to shut up either.
    Exactly as in Indyref. The other political parties constantly taunt SNP/Green/pro Indy to give it up, as they lost.

    Even if Remain do scrape home (and it is likely to be a narrow margin if they manage it, without a big event, now), this won't go away. Its likely to do for the leaders of the two main English parties, it could fling us into another GE. Messiness for years to come will be the main outcome, whatever the result.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,883
    Betting Post

    F1: pre-qualifying for Canada is up here:
    http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2016/06/canada-pre-qualifying-2016.html

    Didn't have an especial bet in mind, but Rosberg each way for pole at 4 (evens if he's 2nd) seems value to me (he's been top two at every qualifying this year).
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,439
    edited June 2016
    brokenwheel said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    I know Cameron warned about WWIII if we voted for Brexit, but it seems in Marseille it has already started. Apparently it has kicked off big style again today.

    It's all part of plan B

    Get them to chuck us out.
    The French police seem to have been rather passive so far. They have that special anti-riot lot (CRS) that normal French citizens shit themselves when they see them because they don't take any prisoners.

    I am surprised after 2 days of this nonsense they haven't been deployed in the kick some non-French behind role.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    I know Cameron warned about WWIII if we voted for Brexit, but it seems in Marseille it has already started. Apparently it has kicked off big style again today.

    No damage to property and two arrests ( one allegedly an England fan ) last night. The BBC seems eager to make a mountain out of a molehill and to whip up trouble here. I wonder why ?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,883
    edited June 2016
    Miss Plato, I think this is out (just skimming it looks like much of the first part is blank):
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i607YvLYESw

    Mr. 1000, perhaps, but I would disagree.

    Edited extra bit: the sound is jittery as hell.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    I've just read a Times article penned by pro-Remain medics at Gt Ormond St claiming Brexit would harm sick children.

    Seriously. I guess this is where you go after Oncologists4Remain said we'd die of cancer.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,439
    MonikerDiCanio said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    I know Cameron warned about WWIII if we voted for Brexit, but it seems in Marseille it has already started. Apparently it has kicked off big style again today.

    No damage to property and two arrests ( one allegedly an England fan ) last night. The BBC seems eager to make a mountain out of a molehill and to whip up trouble here. I wonder why ?
    I have seen the videos on the internet, its pretty bad. And there has plenty of damage to property, with a restaurant being torched. There are also gangs of French thugs going around starting on people in totally unprovoked manner, plus the Russian hooligans.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    rcs1000 said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    I am sure we can all agree that this referendum has become so unpredictable and the effect on UK and EU politics will have changed politics quite dramatically for good. In the UK the conservative party may or may not keep DC as PM but will continue to govern, labour are so adrift of their WWC support and in their leadership which, with the SNP problem, suggests they will never be in power in the UK as the labour party known to us.

    Labour's one chance of keeping or regaining WWC support might ironically arise as a consequence of the very referendum result that it the party is campaigning to prevent. In the event of a Leave vote, with subsequent action being taken to limit EU migration, the salience of both the EU and migration issues might disappear and others would come to the fore. But if there's a Remain vote, those issues will continue to fester at least as much as now, and in that circumstance I agree with your conclusion.
    This referendum has opened a whole can of worms the Establishment didn't want to recognise or seriously deal with.

    Now all of us who've been named called as weird, xenophobes, racist, cranks, backwoodmen et al have discovered 50% of the population agree with us.

    We're no longer the fringe - we're mainstream. Our views are shared across parties. If we don't make it over the line on the 23rd - we're not going to shut up either.
    And if you assume we get 50.1%, are we going to declare "we are the masters now"?

    Whoever wins needs to recognise the country is deeply split on this issue. Anyone ruling for 50.01% of the population is doing this country a great disservice.
    Leave can water down their proposals (whether they will or not). I think a really interesting question is what if anything happens if remain wins 50.1% - does Cameron go back to the EU?
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683
    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    I am sure we can all agree that this referendum has become so unpredictable and the effect on UK and EU politics will have changed politics quite dramatically for good. In the UK the conservative party may or may not keep DC as PM but will continue to govern, labour are so adrift of their WWC support and in their leadership which, with the SNP problem, suggests they will never be in power in the UK as the labour party known to us.

    Labour's one chance of keeping or regaining WWC support might ironically arise as a consequence of the very referendum result that it the party is campaigning to prevent. In the event of a Leave vote, with subsequent action being taken to limit EU migration, the salience of both the EU and migration issues might disappear and others would come to the fore. But if there's a Remain vote, those issues will continue to fester at least as much as now, and in that circumstance I agree with your conclusion.
    This referendum has opened a whole can of worms the Establishment didn't want to recognise or seriously deal with.

    Now all of us who've been named called as weird, xenophobes, racist, cranks, backwoodmen et al have discovered 50% of the population agree with us.

    We're no longer the fringe - we're mainstream. Our views are shared across parties. If we don't make it over the line on the 23rd - we're not going to shut up either.
    Exactly as in Indyref. The other political parties constantly taunt SNP/Green/pro Indy to give it up, as they lost.

    Even if Remain do scrape home (and it is likely to be a narrow margin if they manage it, without a big event, now), this won't go away. Its likely to do for the leaders of the two main English parties, it could fling us into another GE. Messiness for years to come will be the main outcome, whatever the result.
    Does anybody have a view of what happens to UKIP if we vote Leave?

    Presumably we will then be 'independent' and their rationale will disappear... Or will they claim to effectively speak for a majority and seek to call for a general election. Somehow I can't see Farage just disappearing quietly to the pub with a self-congratulatory 'job done'.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    brokenwheel said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    I know Cameron warned about WWIII if we voted for Brexit, but it seems in Marseille it has already started. Apparently it has kicked off big style again today.

    It's all part of plan B

    Get them to chuck us out.
    The French police seem to have been rather passive so far. They have that special anti-riot lot (CRS) that normal French citizens shit themselves when they see them because they don't take any prisoners.

    I am surprised after 2 days of this nonsense they haven't been deployed in the kick some non-French behind role.
    Well the french police have seen more serious rioting from their own people as of late...
  • YossariansChildYossariansChild Posts: 536
    Pointless anecdote alert Part 1:

    The day campaigning for Vote Leave in Beverley, E Yorks (which for a UK Leave win has to be something like 55-45 Leave).

    Unbelievably successful. Simply amazing positivity and motivation to Vote Leave. 12 + leavers (and a parrot!) from 9-4pm. 4 lonely Remainers 9-12noon (they literally gave up as they had no one who wanted to talk to them).

    There is a seismic shift in middle, or if you like 'little' England. Remain just has metrosexuals, the rich and university lecturers on their side whereas pensioners / C1/2, D, E are 75/25 Leave.

    This isnt close. It's nowhere near close. I suspect E Yorks to be 60-40 Leave (and that's me being generous - i'd be less surprised by 70-30 Leave than I would by 55-45 Leave.

    Will it be enough to overcome London, Scotland etc? No idea. But today was fun.

    If any of you Leavers are thinking about campaigning go out and do it; you'll love it.

    Pointless anecdote alert Part 2:

    From the pensioners we spoke to I suspect postal votes are massively Leave and that's why remain are so spooked. We it keep up or does it mean our supporters have already voted? Dunno. I suspect that Leave will go into the 23rd ahead on postal votes.

    Pointless anecdote Part 3:

    Has two separate group of German tourists come up to me and give their support because they hope a Leave vote will give impetus to Germany leaving the EU.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,525
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I'm currently at the Primrose Hill fair. At least 80% of the people here are wearing In badges (there is a chap handing them out).

    I think this will be the most Remain friendly part of the UK. nice to know it's Sean t's hood.

    Yes have seen In badges around Oxford Circus too, rather more Leave badges here in Essex
    I'm increasingly thinking it would be fairest to split the UK. There are two incompatible visions of the country and it would be best to acknowledge that, rather than force 50% of the people into a settlement which does not suit them.
    These two nations have always existed. But the dividing lines shift. Prior to 1918, the divisions were religious/constitutional. From 1918, they were economic. Now, they're values-driven.

    And, they exist in all democracies. For example Blue State vs Red State America, Vienna vs the rest of Austria, Rural France vs urban France. But, I doubt if there's much appetite to divide these nations. If we did, the divides would only start up again in the new states.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,883
    An old classic: Sturgeon reckons an independent Scotland would use the pound.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-36499608

    The SNP needs a better answer on that, because unless something drastic has changed, the rest of the UK does not want that.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,439
    edited June 2016
    brokenwheel said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    brokenwheel said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    I know Cameron warned about WWIII if we voted for Brexit, but it seems in Marseille it has already started. Apparently it has kicked off big style again today.

    It's all part of plan B

    Get them to chuck us out.
    The French police seem to have been rather passive so far. They have that special anti-riot lot (CRS) that normal French citizens shit themselves when they see them because they don't take any prisoners.

    I am surprised after 2 days of this nonsense they haven't been deployed in the kick some non-French behind role.
    Well the french police have seen more serious rioting from their own people as of late...
    That was the pre-tournament warm-up for the CRS....just sharping up their skills.
  • YossariansChildYossariansChild Posts: 536
    PS I know i'm probably carried away. Any Leaver out there who had the day we just did would be too. For as long as it lasts i'm going to enjoy it.
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    MonikerDiCanio said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    I know Cameron warned about WWIII if we voted for Brexit, but it seems in Marseille it has already started. Apparently it has kicked off big style again today.

    No damage to property and two arrests ( one allegedly an England fan ) last night. The BBC seems eager to make a mountain out of a molehill and to whip up trouble here. I wonder why ?
    I have seen the videos on the internet, its pretty bad. And there has plenty of damage to property, with a restaurant being torched. There are also gangs of French thugs going around starting on people in totally unprovoked manner, plus the Russian hooligans.
    I thought European police co-operation had stopped all this sort of thing years ago?
  • PAWPAW Posts: 1,074
    Don't think it will be necessary to split the country, but we may need to establish camps at the tunnel at Folkestone for remainers as they wait to jump on a truck to cross the channel.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,525
    rcs1000 said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    I am sure we can all agree that this referendum has become so unpredictable and the effect on UK and EU politics will have changed politics quite dramatically for good. In the UK the conservative party may or may not keep DC as PM but will continue to govern, labour are so adrift of their WWC support and in their leadership which, with the SNP problem, suggests they will never be in power in the UK as the labour party known to us.

    Labour's one chance of keeping or regaining WWC support might ironically arise as a consequence of the very referendum result that it the party is campaigning to prevent. In the event of a Leave vote, with subsequent action being taken to limit EU migration, the salience of both the EU and migration issues might disappear and others would come to the fore. But if there's a Remain vote, those issues will continue to fester at least as much as now, and in that circumstance I agree with your conclusion.
    This referendum has opened a whole can of worms the Establishment didn't want to recognise or seriously deal with.

    Now all of us who've been named called as weird, xenophobes, racist, cranks, backwoodmen et al have discovered 50% of the population agree with us.

    We're no longer the fringe - we're mainstream. Our views are shared across parties. If we don't make it over the line on the 23rd - we're not going to shut up either.
    And if you assume we get 50.1%, are we going to declare "we are the masters now"?

    Whoever wins needs to recognise the country is deeply split on this issue. Anyone ruling for 50.01% of the population is doing this country a great disservice.
    We'll send the 49.9% for re-education.
This discussion has been closed.

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