Mr. Child, good to hear, but given the EU citizens getting polling cards and postal vote packages going missing I'm still thinking Remain has the advantage. That said, I am beginning to think my 60/40 Remain victory forecast is looking wronger than the 13th Earl of Wrongcaster.
Miss Plato, I said yesterday the shrieking about 'humanity' from Izzard on Question Time reminded me of The Simpsons: "Won't somebody please think of the children?"
I am sure we can all agree that this referendum has become so unpredictable and the effect on UK and EU politics will have changed politics quite dramatically for good. In the UK the conservative party may or may not keep DC as PM but will continue to govern, labour are so adrift of their WWC support and in their leadership which, with the SNP problem, suggests they will never be in power in the UK as the labour party known to us.
Labour's one chance of keeping or regaining WWC support might ironically arise as a consequence of the very referendum result that it the party is campaigning to prevent. In the event of a Leave vote, with subsequent action being taken to limit EU migration, the salience of both the EU and migration issues might disappear and others would come to the fore. But if there's a Remain vote, those issues will continue to fester at least as much as now, and in that circumstance I agree with your conclusion.
This referendum has opened a whole can of worms the Establishment didn't want to recognise or seriously deal with.
Now all of us who've been named called as weird, xenophobes, racist, cranks, backwoodmen et al have discovered 50% of the population agree with us.
We're no longer the fringe - we're mainstream. Our views are shared across parties. If we don't make it over the line on the 23rd - we're not going to shut up either.
Exactly as in Indyref. The other political parties constantly taunt SNP/Green/pro Indy to give it up, as they lost.
Even if Remain do scrape home (and it is likely to be a narrow margin if they manage it, without a big event, now), this won't go away. Its likely to do for the leaders of the two main English parties, it could fling us into another GE. Messiness for years to come will be the main outcome, whatever the result.
Does anybody have a view of what happens to UKIP if we vote Leave?
Presumably we will then be 'independent' and their rationale will disappear... Or will they claim to effectively speak for a majority and seek to call for a general election. Somehow I can't see Farage just disappearing quietly to the pub with a self-congratulatory 'job done'.
Fighting for post Brexit to be delivered - that's at least a few years.
Faisal Islam on Twitter the other day had a theory that Nige would be happy with a narrow defeat, because 'it would do for UKIP what it did for the SNP'.
Other than that, depends on whether we have another GE in the fallout of a Leave vote. if we don't go back to the polls until 2020, Brexit will be in progress or concluded, so could mean a limited role for UKIP.
Those former MEPs will be looking for a new job, though...expect to see some challenges to anyone implicated in election expenses problems, UKIP will be looking for some by-elections.
Missing a category. Those who wish to live in a democracy where those who impose the rules, regulations and laws that we have to live by can be removed/changed /chosen by a majority of the demos without recourse to violence. The EU has become its antithesis.
I had taken that as a given. I assume that all of us are democrats. Some think that democracy is best served by sharing sovereignty in a supranational organisation such as the EU. It's not a view I share. One of the concerns I have is that the current way the EU is organised is to force people to choose between democracy or the current idea of Europe. That is why I would like a better version of the EU but I do not see it on offer.
But I do not wish to assume that those who on balance think they should vote Remain are not democrats. I dislike the way dishonourable motives are attributed to those who are on the other side of the argument. There are honourable reasons for being either pro-Leave or pro-Remain.
Disagreement is not some sort of moral failing.
Well said.
Could you have a quiet word with Mr Cameron please :-)
It seems to me that Ms Cyclefree has six groupings too many. I would suggest that, in terms of voting, we are fast approaching a situation where the nation can be so substantially divided into just two parts, that those falling outside one or other of them are mathematically insignificant. The core of my argument is that the overwhelmingly important issue now is immigration, because for most voters most of the other issues manifest themselves to them substantially if not entirely as immigration issues (jobs, houses, wages, security …..). The population is therefore dividing into two, those who believe that we have to leave the EU to deal with the immigration problem and those who believe that we are better able to deal with the problem by staying in. Anyone who doesn’t believe that immigration isn’t becoming the overwhelmingly most important issue to voters would fall into the latter grouping because of course there is no problem (the lunatic fringe). We’ve had years where concerns about immigration has been the elephant in the room for fear of accusations of racism (which still surface) but now it’s all okay. It’s about control.
For a lot of people, the economy as a separate subject now seems to be becoming much less important. Who can believe anything anyone says on the economic consequences of remaining or leaving. At best they’re guessing (isn’t that what economics is?), at worst they’re lying and talking to their own position with no regard for the consequences beyond that: concerned fat cats, whatever next.
I have just picked up a big pile of leaflets from the Leave stall in Leeds city centre. I'll be posting them into my neighbour's letterboxes tomorrow. I've got 159 neighbours.
Tonight's polls will be interesting, possibly very interesting. Should we reach a point where it appears likely that the vote is likely to be for LEAVE (we're still a very long way from that position judging by the betting markets), can we expect Cameron to make a final personal televised appeal to the British people, say a couple of days before polling day? Would he even allowed to do so under the terms of the two sides supposedly having equal access to the media?
Obviously he wouldn't be campaigning because that wouldn't be right.
He'll be making a Prime Ministerial statement on a grave threat to this country security and welfare.
Mr Yossarian, enjoy the moment. I'm moderately giddy myself.
I'd love to have the same feeling as a lot of us did on election night '15 when the exit poll came out and pb's collective jaw hit the table. What a time to be alive! Roll on the 23rd
If the polls are bad tonight, perhaps Cameron and Osborne will broadcast a dual apology - rather like this one.... ttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TtF5L9bKfO8
I am sure we can all agree that this referendum has become so unpredictable and the effect on UK and EU politics will have changed politics quite dramatically for good. In the UK the conservative party may or may not keep DC as PM but will continue to govern, labour are so adrift of their WWC support and in their leadership which, with the SNP problem, suggests they will never be in power in the UK as the labour party known to us.
Labour's one chance of keeping or regaining WWC support might ironically arise as a consequence of the very referendum result that it the party is campaigning to prevent. In the event of a Leave vote, with subsequent action being taken to limit EU migration, the salience of both the EU and migration issues might disappear and others would come to the fore. But if there's a Remain vote, those issues will continue to fester at least as much as now, and in that circumstance I agree with your conclusion.
This referendum has opened a whole can of worms the Establishment didn't want to recognise or seriously deal with.
Now all of us who've been named called as weird, xenophobes, racist, cranks, backwoodmen et al have discovered 50% of the population agree with us.
We're no longer the fringe - we're mainstream. Our views are shared across parties. If we don't make it over the line on the 23rd - we're not going to shut up either.
Exactly as in Indyref. The other political parties constantly taunt SNP/Green/pro Indy to give it up, as they lost.
Even if Remain do scrape home (and it is likely to be a narrow margin if they manage it, without a big event, now), this won't go away. Its likely to do for the leaders of the two main English parties, it could fling us into another GE. Messiness for years to come will be the main outcome, whatever the result.
Does anybody have a view of what happens to UKIP if we vote Leave?
Presumably we will then be 'independent' and their rationale will disappear... Or will they claim to effectively speak for a majority and seek to call for a general election. Somehow I can't see Farage just disappearing quietly to the pub with a self-congratulatory 'job done'.
Fighting for post Brexit to be delivered - that's at least a few years.
If we vote Brexit, then I think UKIP could have one last hurrah, but I'm sure the party would have vanished in 10 years.
Good afternoon all. Ah, Cyclefree, how I have missed thee. Lovely, lucid article.
I'm a 5. I think Leave's campaign has been poor. Fortunately, Remain's campaign has been risibly bad.
If Cameron had done better in the renegotiation, I'd have likely voted Remain. I chose to interpret the paucity of his achievement as a symbol that the EU collectively doesn't take British concerns seriously.
I was genuinely shocked that Cameron then tried to sell it as a good deal. That he's compounded that misjudgement by serially calling me names thereafter has done nothing to endear him to me.
As a result, I'm politically homeless. But I'm in a better place than Messrs Cameron and Osborne.
I'd echo much of that. But I will still be in the Conservative Party, even if Mr Cameron and Osborne try to purge me in the event of a narrow Remain win. Fuck 'em.
Missing a category. Those who wish to live in a democracy where those who impose the rules, regulations and laws that we have to live by can be removed/changed /chosen by a majority of the demos without recourse to violence. The EU has become its antithesis.
I had taken that as a given. I assume that all of us are democrats. Some think that democracy is best served by sharing sovereignty in a supranational organisation such as the EU. It's not a view I share. One of the concerns I have is that the current way the EU is organised is to force people to choose between democracy or the current idea of Europe. That is why I would like a better version of the EU but I do not see it on offer.
But I do not wish to assume that those who on balance think they should vote Remain are not democrats. I dislike the way dishonourable motives are attributed to those who are on the other side of the argument. There are honourable reasons for being either pro-Leave or pro-Remain.
Disagreement is not some sort of moral failing.
Well said.
Could you have a quiet word with Mr Cameron please :-)
If only David Cameron was personally responsible for the way that the EU runs itself, or how all the individuals in both his party, Labour, Ukip or Libdems or the MSM behaved in this during EU Referendum campaign....
PS I know i'm probably carried away. Any Leaver out there who had the day we just did would be too. For as long as it lasts i'm going to enjoy it.
Ride the wave all the way to the beach - it'll be a long time before we do this again. Or if not - I'm making placards.
In the absence of being able to do that figuratively in the way you lucky chaps are in the UK, today I settled for trying to do that literally, I am probably a bit on the old side for surfing at 48, but given that I living 10 minutes walk from some of the best surf in the world I figured I better get off my arse and go and give it a go
"If you're working on a ZHC in an Amazon warehouse, renting privately, you're far more likely to lean towards Leave. However, you're also statistically less likely to be registered to vote and/or turn out."
The issue of ZHC is something that has festered - without the EU doing anything to lance the boil. The worst excesses of ZHC were addressed by this Govt., not the EU. The young will see the EU as not being on their side on this issue.
I have just picked up a big pile of leaflets from the Leave stall in Leeds city centre. I'll be posting them into my neighbour's letterboxes tomorrow. I've got 159 neighbours.
The SNP needs a better answer on that, because unless something drastic has changed, the rest of the UK does not want that.
Something drastic would have changed. In 2014, Scotland would have left a UK that was inside the EU. The SNP claimed that that meant it wouldn't be forced to adopt the Euro and its supporters appeared to buy that claim. It's much harder to make that claim if Scotland is leaving a UK already outside the EU.
The SNP case for joining the EU in the circumstances of the UK leaving is in any case riddled with contradictions. For example, it's hard to make a case stick that you are withdrawing from the benefits of a single UK market with which Scotland does perhaps 65% of its external trade to enjoy the benefits (?) of a single EU market which accounts for 20% of Scotland's external trade. If access to a single market really matters that much, shouldn't access to your biggest single market be the priority if you are forced to choose?
If we vote Brexit, then I think UKIP could have one last hurrah, but I'm sure the party would have vanished in 10 years.
I think it depends on two things (well, three if you include getting a better leader than Farage). If the government solution is fudgy and doesn't do much about immigration there will still be a rich seam of discontent for them to mine, and they will there no doubt attempt to cast themselves as the Keepers of the True Flame. Also if Labour continues to vanish up its own arse and becomes a metrosexual talking shop, Paul Nuttall might be well placed to make UKIP the new Old Labour.
I'm currently at the Primrose Hill fair. At least 80% of the people here are wearing In badges (there is a chap handing them out).
I think this will be the most Remain friendly part of the UK. nice to know it's Sean t's hood.
Yes have seen In badges around Oxford Circus too, rather more Leave badges here in Essex
I'm increasingly thinking it would be fairest to split the UK. There are two incompatible visions of the country and it would be best to acknowledge that, rather than force 50% of the people into a settlement which does not suit them.
Missing a category. Those who wish to live in a democracy where those who impose the rules, regulations and laws that we have to live by can be removed/changed /chosen by a majority of the demos without recourse to violence. The EU has become its antithesis.
I had taken that as a given. I assume that all of us are democrats. Some think that democracy is best served by sharing sovereignty in a supranational organisation such as the EU. It's not a view I share. One of the concerns I have is that the current way the EU is organised is to force people to choose between democracy or the current idea of Europe. That is why I would like a better version of the EU but I do not see it on offer.
But I do not wish to assume that those who on balance think they should vote Remain are not democrats. I dislike the way dishonourable motives are attributed to those who are on the other side of the argument. There are honourable reasons for being either pro-Leave or pro-Remain.
Disagreement is not some sort of moral failing.
Well said.
Could you have a quiet word with Mr Cameron please :-)
If only David Cameron was personally responsible for the way that the EU runs itself, or how all the individuals in both his party, Labour, Ukip or Libdems or the MSM behaved in this during EU Referendum campaign....
If he would only take responsibility for his own brazen lying it would be a pleasant start.
If the member states react to a Remain win in the way Cameron reacted to the result of the Scottish referendum, we'll be out of the EU within five to 10 years. I reckon I'm mostly 3, a bit of 4.
"If you're working on a ZHC in an Amazon warehouse, renting privately, you're far more likely to lean towards Leave. However, you're also statistically less likely to be registered to vote and/or turn out."
The issue of ZHC is something that has festered - without the EU doing anything to lance the boil. The worst excesses of ZHC were addressed by this Govt., not the EU. The young will see the EU as not being on their side on this issue.
There is also the slight humbuggery that by far the biggest users of ZHC are the public sector and the charity sector.
Faisal Islam on Twitter the other day had a theory that Nige would be happy with a narrow defeat, because 'it would do for UKIP what it did for the SNP'.
Nige may well be happy with a Leave victory that results in EFTA membership, because it leaves immigration as an open question. If a sizeable number of traditional Labour voters have defied Corbyn on this, good ground game might persuade them to do so permanently. That clip of Hillary Benn admitting that unlimited immigration was a price worth paying for remaining in the EU will be an extremely valuable tool.
On the other hand, no more European Parliament money will be a big hit.
my own initial reaction would have been, in hurt, to lash out, and that has to be a possibility. I'm sure it would be a popular move in Europe even if not in their best interests. But it may be they are saying they would punish us now, in part to encourage group 4s, but in reality would not.
Article 8, clause 1 of the Lisbon treaty requires the EU to "develop a special relationship with neighbouring countries, aiming to establish an area of prosperity and good neighbourliness, founded on the values of the Union and characterised by close and peaceful relations based on cooperation". And it's not like the EU ever goes against treaties when it suits them...
Much of the above may be valid, in that many will vote Remain grudgingly to hang onto nurse for fear of something worse, particularly economically. However, a vote for Remain will be correctly viewed by the EU and leading European countries as a commitment by the UK to progress to ever closer union. I was led to believe that proposals for a single European army will be tabled by the end of June (but after 23rd).
You state that "The winner in a democratic election always needs to remember that they have to rule for and over those who did not vote for them." The key reason for this is that there will be another election in a few years. This caveat does not apply for the referendum on 23/6, as it is unlikely that there would be another such vote soon. The UK's bluff will have been called and there will no prospect for a generation or more of having another chance to reverse the decision made in the early 1970's to join the EEC.
A vote to Remain would be viewed incorrectly by the EU as a vote for ever closer union. Cameron's much disparaged negotiation specifically ruled out the UK for that course.
Well said Perdix, and I second that point. I doubt that anyone in the EU would view a Remain vote as the UK suddenly changing its very vocal and critical Eurosceptic position after forty years.
Good afternoon all. Ah, Cyclefree, how I have missed thee. Lovely, lucid article.
I'm a 5. I think Leave's campaign has been poor. Fortunately, Remain's campaign has been risibly bad.
If Cameron had done better in the renegotiation, I'd have likely voted Remain. I chose to interpret the paucity of his achievement as a symbol that the EU collectively doesn't take British concerns seriously.
I was genuinely shocked that Cameron then tried to sell it as a good deal. That he's compounded that misjudgement by serially calling me names thereafter has done nothing to endear him to me.
As a result, I'm politically homeless. But I'm in a better place than Messrs Cameron and Osborne.
I'd echo much of that. But I will still be in the Conservative Party, even if Mr Cameron and Osborne try to purge me in the event of a narrow Remain win. Fuck 'em.
Not a member of any party, but as a general rule I prefer to stick with things & try to change them for the better from the inside.
But not for sticking with it at any price, to the point of stupidity. We've given the EU 40 years and they aren't for changing. They've just proved that to the hilt with the renegotiation.
IMHO the Labour party has just about gone beyond reclaim as a mainstream political competitor. Conservative party doesn't yet seem to me to have done that.
Much of the above may be valid, in that many will vote Remain grudgingly to hang onto nurse for fear of something worse, particularly economically. However, a vote for Remain will be correctly viewed by the EU and leading European countries as a commitment by the UK to progress to ever closer union. I was led to believe that proposals for a single European army will be tabled by the end of June (but after 23rd).
You state that "The winner in a democratic election always needs to remember that they have to rule for and over those who did not vote for them." The key reason for this is that there will be another election in a few years. This caveat does not apply for the referendum on 23/6, as it is unlikely that there would be another such vote soon. The UK's bluff will have been called and there will no prospect for a generation or more of having another chance to reverse the decision made in the early 1970's to join the EEC.
A vote to Remain would be viewed incorrectly by the EU as a vote for ever closer union. Cameron's much disparaged negotiation specifically ruled out the UK for that course.
Well said Perdix, and I second that point. I doubt that anyone in the EU would view a Remain vote as the UK suddenly changing its very vocal and critical Eurosceptic position after forty years.
That would be the the vocal critical position they have ignored for the last 40 years then.
Much of the above may be valid, in that many will vote Remain grudgingly to hang onto nurse for fear of something worse, particularly economically. However, a vote for Remain will be correctly viewed by the EU and leading European countries as a commitment by the UK to progress to ever closer union. I was led to believe that proposals for a single European army will be tabled by the end of June (but after 23rd).
You state that "The winner in a democratic election always needs to remember that they have to rule for and over those who did not vote for them." The key reason for this is that there will be another election in a few years. This caveat does not apply for the referendum on 23/6, as it is unlikely that there would be another such vote soon. The UK's bluff will have been called and there will no prospect for a generation or more of having another chance to reverse the decision made in the early 1970's to join the EEC.
A vote to Remain would be viewed incorrectly by the EU as a vote for ever closer union. Cameron's much disparaged negotiation specifically ruled out the UK for that course.
Well said Perdix, and I second that point. I doubt that anyone in the EU would view a Remain vote as the UK suddenly changing its very vocal and critical Eurosceptic position after forty years.
That would be the the vocal critical position they have ignored for the last 40 years then.
Good afternoon all. Ah, Cyclefree, how I have missed thee. Lovely, lucid article.
I'm a 5. I think Leave's campaign has been poor. Fortunately, Remain's campaign has been risibly bad.
If Cameron had done better in the renegotiation, I'd have likely voted Remain. I chose to interpret the paucity of his achievement as a symbol that the EU collectively doesn't take British concerns seriously.
I was genuinely shocked that Cameron then tried to sell it as a good deal. That he's compounded that misjudgement by serially calling me names thereafter has done nothing to endear him to me.
As a result, I'm politically homeless. But I'm in a better place than Messrs Cameron and Osborne.
I'd echo much of that. But I will still be in the Conservative Party, even if Mr Cameron and Osborne try to purge me in the event of a narrow Remain win. Fuck 'em.
But not for sticking with it at any price, to the point of stupidity. We've given the EU 40 years and they aren't for changing. They've just proved that to the hilt with the renegotiation.
.
Not lease because some complained we'd been given too much. If they genuinely think that, that's a pretty irreconcilable divide between us.
Much of the above may be valid, in that many will vote Remain grudgingly to hang onto nurse for fear of something worse, particularly economically. However, a vote for Remain will be correctly viewed by the EU and leading European countries as a commitment by the UK to progress to ever closer union. I was led to believe that proposals for a single European army will be tabled by the end of June (but after 23rd).
You state that "The winner in a democratic election always needs to remember that they have to rule for and over those who did not vote for them." The key reason for this is that there will be another election in a few years. This caveat does not apply for the referendum on 23/6, as it is unlikely that there would be another such vote soon. The UK's bluff will have been called and there will no prospect for a generation or more of having another chance to reverse the decision made in the early 1970's to join the EEC.
A vote to Remain would be viewed incorrectly by the EU as a vote for ever closer union. Cameron's much disparaged negotiation specifically ruled out the UK for that course.
Well said Perdix, and I second that point. I doubt that anyone in the EU would view a Remain vote as the UK suddenly changing its very vocal and critical Eurosceptic position after forty years.
That would be the the vocal critical position they have ignored for the last 40 years then.
I must have missed the UK joining the Euro....
Left to Blair and Major we would have. We didn't join becuase it was unsellable to the electorate, the EU simply put our absence in the will catch up later column.
Good afternoon all. Ah, Cyclefree, how I have missed thee. Lovely, lucid article.
I'm a 5. I think Leave's campaign has been poor. Fortunately, Remain's campaign has been risibly bad.
If Cameron had done better in the renegotiation, I'd have likely voted Remain. I chose to interpret the paucity of his achievement as a symbol that the EU collectively doesn't take British concerns seriously.
I was genuinely shocked that Cameron then tried to sell it as a good deal. That he's compounded that misjudgement by serially calling me names thereafter has done nothing to endear him to me.
As a result, I'm politically homeless. But I'm in a better place than Messrs Cameron and Osborne.
I'd echo much of that. But I will still be in the Conservative Party, even if Mr Cameron and Osborne try to purge me in the event of a narrow Remain win. Fuck 'em.
Don't worry Marquee Mark, your safe. Some in the Conservative party have been trying to 'purge' the Europhile Ken Clarke wing of the party for decades without success.
I am sure we can all agree that this referendum has become so unpredictable and the effect on UK and EU politics will have changed politics quite dramatically for good. In the UK the conservative party may or may not keep DC as PM but will continue to govern, labour are so adrift of their WWC support and in their leadership which, with the SNP problem, suggests they will never be in power in the UK as the labour party known to us.
Labour's one chance of keeping or regaining WWC support might ironically arise as a consequence of the very referendum result that it the party is campaigning to prevent. In the event of a Leave vote, with subsequent action being taken to limit EU migration, the salience of both the EU and migration issues might disappear and others would come to the fore. But if there's a Remain vote, those issues will continue to fester at least as much as now, and in that circumstance I agree with your conclusion.
This referendum has opened a whole can of worms the Establishment didn't want to recognise or seriously deal with.
Now all of us who've been named called as weird, xenophobes, racist, cranks, backwoodmen et al have discovered 50% of the population agree with us.
We're no longer the fringe - we're mainstream. Our views are shared across parties. If we don't make it over the line on the 23rd - we're not going to shut up either.
Exactly as in Indyref. The other political parties constantly taunt SNP/Green/pro Indy to give it up, as they lost.
Even if Remain do scrape home (and it is likely to be a narrow margin if they manage it, without a big event, now), this won't go away. Its likely to do for the leaders of the two main English parties, it could fling us into another GE. Messiness for years to come will be the main outcome, whatever the result.
Does anybody have a view of what happens to UKIP if we vote Leave?
Presumably we will then be 'independent' and their rationale will disappear... Or will they claim to effectively speak for a majority and seek to call for a general election. Somehow I can't see Farage just disappearing quietly to the pub with a self-congratulatory 'job done'.
I think the Northern UKIP mob who seem like Labour but for the working classes rather than the Guardian reading classes may carry on. We will see.
Miss Fitalass, alas, I don't believe that famous promise is worth the paper it's written on. The EU claiming not to want ever closer union is like a crocodile claiming to be a vegan.
That looks like every pic I saw of SNP stalls vs SLab stalls in the Central Belt during GE2015. If that's how its playing out in Northern England, Stronger in Europe are fecked. Just saying...
I am sure we can all agree that this referendum has become so unpredictable and the effect on UK and EU politics will have changed politics quite dramatically for good. In the UK the conservative party may or may not keep DC as PM but will continue to govern, labour are so adrift of their WWC support and in their leadership which, with the SNP problem, suggests they will never be in power in the UK as the labour party known to us.
Labour's one chance of keeping or regaining WWC support might ironically arise as a consequence of the very referendum result that it the party is campaigning to prevent. In the event of a Leave vote, with subsequent action being taken to limit EU migration, the salience of both the EU and migration issues might disappear and others would come to the fore. But if there's a Remain vote, those issues will continue to fester at least as much as now, and in that circumstance I agree with your conclusion.
This referendum has opened a whole can of worms the Establishment didn't want to recognise or seriously deal with.
Now all of us who've been named called as weird, xenophobes, racist, cranks, backwoodmen et al have discovered 50% of the population agree with us.
We're no longer the fringe - we're mainstream. Our views are shared across parties. If we don't make it over the line on the 23rd - we're not going to shut up either.
Exactly as in Indyref. The other political parties constantly taunt SNP/Green/pro Indy to give it up, as they lost.
Even if Remain do scrape home (and it is likely to be a narrow margin if they manage it, without a big event, now), this won't go away. Its likely to do for the leaders of the two main English parties, it could fling us into another GE. Messiness for years to come will be the main outcome, whatever the result.
Does anybody have a view of what happens to UKIP if we vote Leave?
Presumably we will then be 'independent' and their rationale will disappear... Or will they claim to effectively speak for a majority and seek to call for a general election. Somehow I can't see Farage just disappearing quietly to the pub with a self-congratulatory 'job done'.
I think the Northern UKIP mob who seem like Labour but for the working classes rather than the Guardian reading classes may carry on. We will see.
If we're out of the EU they'll need some more policies. That will be interesting given their Thatcherite roots.
Has two separate group of German tourists come up to me and give their support because they hope a Leave vote will give impetus to Germany leaving the EU.
Ah. An Anglo German axis out of the EU?
If it brings the Swedes and Danes it could be something....
There are a lot of groups around the EU supporting Brexit because they don't like the EU.
Much of the above may be valid, in that many will vote Remain grudgingly to hang onto nurse for fear of something worse, particularly economically. However, a vote for Remain will be correctly viewed by the EU and leading European countries as a commitment by the UK to progress to ever closer union. I was led to believe that proposals for a single European army will be tabled by the end of June (but after 23rd).
You state that "The winner in a democratic election always needs to remember that they have to rule for and over those who did not vote for them." The key reason for this is that there will be another election in a few years. This caveat does not apply for the referendum on 23/6, as it is unlikely that there would be another such vote soon. The UK's bluff will have been called and there will no prospect for a generation or more of having another chance to reverse the decision made in the early 1970's to join the EEC.
A vote to Remain would be viewed incorrectly by the EU as a vote for ever closer union. Cameron's much disparaged negotiation specifically ruled out the UK for that course.
Well said Perdix, and I second that point. I doubt that anyone in the EU would view a Remain vote as the UK suddenly changing its very vocal and critical Eurosceptic position after forty years.
They have ignored our position for the last 40 years and are not about to change that now.
Good afternoon all. Ah, Cyclefree, how I have missed thee. Lovely, lucid article.
I'm a 5. I think Leave's campaign has been poor. Fortunately, Remain's campaign has been risibly bad.
If Cameron had done better in the renegotiation, I'd have likely voted Remain. I chose to interpret the paucity of his achievement as a symbol that the EU collectively doesn't take British concerns seriously.
I was genuinely shocked that Cameron then tried to sell it as a good deal. That he's compounded that misjudgement by serially calling me names thereafter has done nothing to endear him to me.
As a result, I'm politically homeless. But I'm in a better place than Messrs Cameron and Osborne.
I'd echo much of that. But I will still be in the Conservative Party, even if Mr Cameron and Osborne try to purge me in the event of a narrow Remain win. Fuck 'em.
Don't worry Marquee Mark, your safe. Some in the Conservative party have been trying to 'purge' the Europhile Ken Clarke wing of the party for decades without success.
It might actually be amusing if, post a Brexit vote and Leaver takeover, Ken Clarke defected - people have been joking about him really being a LD for longer than I've been visiting this site (6 years), and I think it would be hilarious if he declared that in 2020, after 50 years as the Tory MP for Rushcliffe, he was going to stand as a LD.
My neighbour in my block showed me a leaflet that he'd had labelled OFFICIAL INFORMATION ABOUT THE REFERENDUM ON 23 JUNE 2016, subtitled Referendum Communication, with his name and address printed on it to look like the polling card. "Is this really official as when I read through it, it seems to be from vote Leave?" I said no, it looked like a trick. He was indignant: said he'd not been planning to vote at all as he didn't really care, but "fuck'em, I'll vote Remain, I won't be treated as an idiot." I asked if I could have the leaflet as I knew people who would be interested.
This does seem to me sleazy. Is it legal to represent a view as "Official Information"?
Incidentally, I haven't had one, though I've not been canvassed - I wonder what the selection criterion is.
Miss Fitalass, alas, I don't believe that famous promise is worth the paper it's written on. The EU claiming not to want ever closer union is like a crocodile claiming to be a vegan.
It may have taken four decades, but oddly enough, I think that the UK's Eurosceptism is finally and visible beginning to rub off on other countries. I suspect the Eurozone project will have done for further EU integration what the ERM did for the Euro in the UK.
Just musing - it must be fun on the ministerial floor at DECC these days. Rudd and Leadsom glowering at each other through a glass partition. Who needs The Thick of It?
PS I know i'm probably carried away. Any Leaver out there who had the day we just did would be too. For as long as it lasts i'm going to enjoy it.
Ride the wave all the way to the beach - it'll be a long time before we do this again. Or if not - I'm making placards.
In the absence of being able to do that figuratively in the way you lucky chaps are in the UK, today I settled for trying to do that literally, I am probably a bit on the old side for surfing at 48, but given that I living 10 minutes walk from some of the best surf in the world I figured I better get off my arse and go and give it a go
My dear chap, are you sure that is wise? My last quack told me that gentlemen of, ahem, a certain age who take up an active sport for the first time are far more likely to do themselves harm harm good. "Swim gently if you must and can stand the boredom", he said, "but your best bet is to pick a pub about five miles away and walk there for lunch and back afterwards".
My neighbour in my block showed me a leaflet that he'd had labelled OFFICIAL INFORMATION ABOUT THE REFERENDUM ON 23 JUNE 2016, subtitled Referendum Communication, with his name and address printed on it to look like the polling card. "Is this really official as when I read through it, it seems to be from vote Leave?" I said no, it looked like a trick. He was indignant: said he'd not been planning to vote at all as he didn't really care, but "fuck'em, I'll vote Remain, I won't be treated as an idiot." I asked if I could have the leaflet as I knew people who would be interested.
This does seem to me sleazy. Is it legal to represent a view as "Official Information"?
Incidentally, I haven't had one, though I've not been canvassed - I wonder what the selection criterion is.
Imagine how annoyed people would be if one side had posted 'official information' to the entire electorate?
PS I know i'm probably carried away. Any Leaver out there who had the day we just did would be too. For as long as it lasts i'm going to enjoy it.
Ride the wave all the way to the beach - it'll be a long time before we do this again. Or if not - I'm making placards.
In the absence of being able to do that figuratively in the way you lucky chaps are in the UK, today I settled for trying to do that literally, I am probably a bit on the old side for surfing at 48, but given that I living 10 minutes walk from some of the best surf in the world I figured I better get off my arse and go and give it a go
My dear chap, are you sure that is wise? My last quack told me that gentlemen of, ahem, a certain age who take up an active sport for the first time are far more likely to do themselves harm harm good. "Swim gently if you must and can stand the boredom", he said, "but your best bet is to pick a pub about five miles away and walk there for lunch and back afterwards".
PS I know i'm probably carried away. Any Leaver out there who had the day we just did would be too. For as long as it lasts i'm going to enjoy it.
Ride the wave all the way to the beach - it'll be a long time before we do this again. Or if not - I'm making placards.
In the absence of being able to do that figuratively in the way you lucky chaps are in the UK, today I settled for trying to do that literally, I am probably a bit on the old side for surfing at 48, but given that I living 10 minutes walk from some of the best surf in the world I figured I better get off my arse and go and give it a go
My dear chap, are you sure that is wise? My last quack told me that gentlemen of, ahem, a certain age who take up an active sport for the first time are far more likely to do themselves harm harm good. "Swim gently if you must and can stand the boredom", he said, "but your best bet is to pick a pub about five miles away and walk there for lunch and back afterwards".
Miss Fitalass, alas, I don't believe that famous promise is worth the paper it's written on. The EU claiming not to want ever closer union is like a crocodile claiming to be a vegan.
It may have taken four decades, but oddly enough, I think that the UK's Eurosceptism is finally and visible beginning to rub off on other countries. I suspect the Eurozone project will have done for further EU integration what the ERM did for the Euro in the UK.
Where we lead, Denmark and Sweden follow?
(Predictive text suggested 'Swindon' rather than 'Sweden'!)
Has two separate group of German tourists come up to me and give their support because they hope a Leave vote will give impetus to Germany leaving the EU.
Ah. An Anglo German axis out of the EU?
If it brings the Swedes and Danes it could be something....
There are a lot of groups around the EU supporting Brexit because they don't like the EU.
Perhaps we could then form some loose coalition for mutual betterment, like we have with our former imperial colonies. Nothing about forming a super-state, no sharing of sovereignty, just working together on a range of practical issues. We could call it the European Economic Commonwealth.
If the member states react to a Remain win in the way Cameron reacted to the result of the Scottish referendum, we'll be out of the EU within five to 10 years. I reckon I'm mostly 3, a bit of 4.
Just to clarify, you are a remainer (who thinks leave will win and bet accordingly) but if the E treat us like mugs you'd become a leaver?
It's just after the re negotiation, I can't see them doing anything else, and for that reason I'm out.
My neighbour in my block showed me a leaflet that he'd had labelled OFFICIAL INFORMATION ABOUT THE REFERENDUM ON 23 JUNE 2016, subtitled Referendum Communication, with his name and address printed on it to look like the polling card. "Is this really official as when I read through it, it seems to be from vote Leave?" I said no, it looked like a trick. He was indignant: said he'd not been planning to vote at all as he didn't really care, but "fuck'em, I'll vote Remain, I won't be treated as an idiot." I asked if I could have the leaflet as I knew people who would be interested.
This does seem to me sleazy. Is it legal to represent a view as "Official Information"?
Incidentally, I haven't had one, though I've not been canvassed - I wonder what the selection criterion is.
Imagine how annoyed people would be if one side had posted 'official information' to the entire electorate?
Whoever wins needs to recognise the country is deeply split on this issue. Anyone ruling for 50.01% of the population is doing this country a great disservice.
Yes,Mr Smithson. And the present government is ruling with the support of under 25% of the registered voters. So that would be a very great disservice indeed.
My neighbour in my block showed me a leaflet that he'd had labelled OFFICIAL INFORMATION ABOUT THE REFERENDUM ON 23 JUNE 2016, subtitled Referendum Communication, with his name and address printed on it to look like the polling card. "Is this really official as when I read through it, it seems to be from vote Leave?" I said no, it looked like a trick. He was indignant: said he'd not been planning to vote at all as he didn't really care, but "fuck'em, I'll vote Remain, I won't be treated as an idiot." I asked if I could have the leaflet as I knew people who would be interested.
This does seem to me sleazy. Is it legal to represent a view as "Official Information"?
Incidentally, I haven't had one, though I've not been canvassed - I wonder what the selection criterion is.
I had one as well. Rather subtle I thought, talking about how experts were ''divided" it's the one with the map of Turkey, Iraq and Syria on the back. There's an odd bit about saying you should vote as if the question was about choosing to join the EU - this seemed odd as it's clearly a totally different question and not a campaign line I've seen elsewhere.
I guess it's targeted at 'leans Remain' as that's what I've told them twice (once over the phone, another time on the football prediction site)
Miss Fitalass, alas, I don't believe that famous promise is worth the paper it's written on. The EU claiming not to want ever closer union is like a crocodile claiming to be a vegan.
It may have taken four decades, but oddly enough, I think that the UK's Eurosceptism is finally and visible beginning to rub off on other countries. I suspect the Eurozone project will have done for further EU integration what the ERM did for the Euro in the UK.
Where we lead, Denmark and Sweden follow?
(Predictive text suggested 'Swindon' rather than 'Sweden'!)
The irony is our exit could provide more influence than our decades long membership ever has.
Mr Yossarian, enjoy the moment. I'm moderately giddy myself.
I'd love to have the same feeling as a lot of us did on election night '15 when the exit poll came out and pb's collective jaw hit the table. What a time to be alive! Roll on the 23rd
There ain't going to be any bona fide exit polls on June 23rd. Any that do appear will be bogus or simple guesses.
Has two separate group of German tourists come up to me and give their support because they hope a Leave vote will give impetus to Germany leaving the EU.
Ah. An Anglo German axis out of the EU?
If it brings the Swedes and Danes it could be something....
There are a lot of groups around the EU supporting Brexit because they don't like the EU.
Perhaps we could then form some loose coalition for mutual betterment, like we have with our former imperial colonies. Nothing about forming a super-state, no sharing of sovereignty, just working together on a range of practical issues. We could call it the European Economic Commonwealth.
Or for short, the EEC....
If I were playing fantasy politics, a North European economic community would be pretty cool. We could take Germany, the Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden and Norway (if they're up for it). Plus Poland, because I love Poland.
Mr Yossarian, enjoy the moment. I'm moderately giddy myself.
I'd love to have the same feeling as a lot of us did on election night '15 when the exit poll came out and pb's collective jaw hit the table. What a time to be alive! Roll on the 23rd
There ain't going to be any bona fide exit polls on June 23rd. Any that do appear will be bogus or simple guesses.
My neighbour in my block showed me a leaflet that he'd had labelled OFFICIAL INFORMATION ABOUT THE REFERENDUM ON 23 JUNE 2016, subtitled Referendum Communication, with his name and address printed on it to look like the polling card. "Is this really official as when I read through it, it seems to be from vote Leave?" I said no, it looked like a trick. He was indignant: said he'd not been planning to vote at all as he didn't really care, but "fuck'em, I'll vote Remain, I won't be treated as an idiot." I asked if I could have the leaflet as I knew people who would be interested.
This does seem to me sleazy. Is it legal to represent a view as "Official Information"?
Incidentally, I haven't had one, though I've not been canvassed - I wonder what the selection criterion is.
Remain had a 9 million quid 'offical' propaganda piece through every door so boo hoo.
On our leaflets - and of interest to those who a few weeks ago were slagging-off the Leave campaign - these were clearly prepared well in advance.
1, Which way to vote for undecideds. 2, The facts - the 'offical' one you mention - Vote Leave official. 3. Labour Leave - we use these in Labour areas natch. We have a local Tory councillor who loves giving these out. 4. 5 Positive reasons to vote leave - number 1 NHS NHS NHS 5. NHS
If the member states react to a Remain win in the way Cameron reacted to the result of the Scottish referendum, we'll be out of the EU within five to 10 years. I reckon I'm mostly 3, a bit of 4.
Just to clarify, you are a remainer (who thinks leave will win and bet accordingly) but if the E treat us like mugs you'd become a leaver?
It's just after the re negotiation, I can't see them doing anything else, and for that reason I'm out.
I imagine there'd be a landslide for Leave if after a Remain vote the EU thought that was a vote for more Europe. There are very few ardent Europeans in the UK. I like the single market and believe it benefits us, but that's a pragmatic view, not an ideological one. That's why a Leave vote followed by EEA/EFTA would not bother me too much. Sadly, the Leave focus on significantly reducing immigration during this campaign rules it out.
I am sure we can all agree that this referendum has become so unpredictable and the effect on UK and EU politics will have changed politics quite dramatically for good. In the UK the conservative party may or may not keep DC as PM but will continue to govern, labour are so adrift of their WWC support and in their leadership which, with the SNP problem, suggests they will never be in power in the UK as the labour party known to us.
Labour's one chance of keeping or regaining WWC support might ironically arise as a consequence of the very referendum result that it the party is campaigning to prevent. In the event of a Leave vote, with subsequent action being taken to limit EU migration, the salience of both the EU and migration issues might disappear and others would come to the fore. But if there's a Remain vote, those issues will continue to fester at least as much as now, and in that circumstance I agree with your conclusion.
This referendum has opened a whole can of worms the Establishment didn't want to recognise or seriously deal with.
Now all of us who've been named called as weird, xenophobes, racist, cranks, backwoodmen et al have discovered 50% of the population agree with us.
We're no longer the fringe - we're mainstream. Our views are shared across parties. If we don't make it over the line on the 23rd - we're not going to shut up either.
Exactly as in Indyref. The other political parties constantly taunt SNP/Green/pro Indy to give it up, as they lost.
Even if Remain do scrape home (and it is likely to be a narrow margin if they manage it, without a big event, now), this won't go away. Its likely to do for the leaders of the two main English parties, it could fling us into another GE. Messiness for years to come will be the main outcome, whatever the result.
Does anybody have a view of what happens to UKIP if we vote Leave?
Presumably we will then be 'independent' and their rationale will disappear... Or will they claim to effectively speak for a majority and seek to call for a general election. Somehow I can't see Farage just disappearing quietly to the pub with a self-congratulatory 'job done'.
I think the Northern UKIP mob who seem like Labour but for the working classes rather than the Guardian reading classes may carry on. We will see.
If we're out of the EU they'll need some more policies. That will be interesting given their Thatcherite roots.
Farage has Thatcherite roots as does Evans. Nuttall not so much.
They have other policies which are a bit centerist/leftish and then there is the control of immigration. They can sell that.
Has two separate group of German tourists come up to me and give their support because they hope a Leave vote will give impetus to Germany leaving the EU.
Ah. An Anglo German axis out of the EU?
If it brings the Swedes and Danes it could be something....
There are a lot of groups around the EU supporting Brexit because they don't like the EU.
Perhaps we could then form some loose coalition for mutual betterment, like we have with our former imperial colonies. Nothing about forming a super-state, no sharing of sovereignty, just working together on a range of practical issues. We could call it the European Economic Commonwealth.
Or for short, the EEC....
If I were playing fantasy politics, a North European economic community would be pretty cool. We could take Germany, the Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden and Norway (if they're up for it). Plus Poland, because I love Poland.
Whoever wins needs to recognise the country is deeply split on this issue. Anyone ruling for 50.01% of the population is doing this country a great disservice.
Yes,Mr Smithson. And the present government is ruling with the support of under 25% of the registered voters. So that would be a very great disservice indeed.
There's a difference between being elected with less than 50% of the registered voters (which if you calculated it that way rather than even those who turned out, is very common) and not governing for the majority of people nevertheless. Obviously people will disagree on how reasonable a job the winner of an election is doing at governing for all the people and not just its own supporters however.
Or we could boil it down to a simplistic and misleading meme I suppose.
My neighbour in my block showed me a leaflet that he'd had labelled OFFICIAL INFORMATION ABOUT THE REFERENDUM ON 23 JUNE 2016, subtitled Referendum Communication, with his name and address printed on it to look like the polling card. "Is this really official as when I read through it, it seems to be from vote Leave?" I said no, it looked like a trick. He was indignant: said he'd not been planning to vote at all as he didn't really care, but "fuck'em, I'll vote Remain, I won't be treated as an idiot." I asked if I could have the leaflet as I knew people who would be interested.
This does seem to me sleazy. Is it legal to represent a view as "Official Information"?
Incidentally, I haven't had one, though I've not been canvassed - I wonder what the selection criterion is.
Imagine how annoyed people would be if one side had posted 'official information' to the entire electorate?
My neighbour in my block showed me a leaflet that he'd had labelled OFFICIAL INFORMATION ABOUT THE REFERENDUM ON 23 JUNE 2016, subtitled Referendum Communication, with his name and address printed on it to look like the polling card. "Is this really official as when I read through it, it seems to be from vote Leave?" I said no, it looked like a trick. He was indignant: said he'd not been planning to vote at all as he didn't really care, but "fuck'em, I'll vote Remain, I won't be treated as an idiot." I asked if I could have the leaflet as I knew people who would be interested.
This does seem to me sleazy. Is it legal to represent a view as "Official Information"?
Incidentally, I haven't had one, though I've not been canvassed - I wonder what the selection criterion is.
Sounds like Cameron's tax payer funded Remain propaganda leaflet. I think you should put your confused neighbour straight on that before he mistakenly votes Remain.
Miss Fitalass, alas, I don't believe that famous promise is worth the paper it's written on. The EU claiming not to want ever closer union is like a crocodile claiming to be a vegan.
It may have taken four decades, but oddly enough, I think that the UK's Eurosceptism is finally and visible beginning to rub off on other countries. I suspect the Eurozone project will have done for further EU integration what the ERM did for the Euro in the UK.
You may be right if we vote to Leave and actually do Leave.
If what I've read is correct, the way the EU is run is very similar to the way European countries are run, and therefore has a much better 'fit' with them than with the UK.
Their understanding of democracy seems to be rather different from ours. (Not knocking being different, you understand.)
My neighbour in my block showed me a leaflet that he'd had labelled OFFICIAL INFORMATION ABOUT THE REFERENDUM ON 23 JUNE 2016, subtitled Referendum Communication, with his name and address printed on it to look like the polling card. "Is this really official as when I read through it, it seems to be from vote Leave?" I said no, it looked like a trick. He was indignant: said he'd not been planning to vote at all as he didn't really care, but "fuck'em, I'll vote Remain, I won't be treated as an idiot." I asked if I could have the leaflet as I knew people who would be interested.
This does seem to me sleazy. Is it legal to represent a view as "Official Information"?
Incidentally, I haven't had one, though I've not been canvassed - I wonder what the selection criterion is.
Remain had a 9 million quid 'offical' propaganda piece through every door so boo hoo.
On our leaflets - and of interest to those who a few weeks ago were slagging-off the Leave campaign - these were clearly prepared well in advance.
1, Which way to vote for undecideds. 2, The facts - the 'offical' one you mention - Vote Leave official. 3. Labour Leave - we use these in Labour areas natch. We have a local Tory councillor who loves giving these out. 4. 5 Positive reasons to vote leave - number 1 NHS NHS NHS 5. NHS
Has two separate group of German tourists come up to me and give their support because they hope a Leave vote will give impetus to Germany leaving the EU.
Ah. An Anglo German axis out of the EU?
If it brings the Swedes and Danes it could be something....
There are a lot of groups around the EU supporting Brexit because they don't like the EU.
Perhaps we could then form some loose coalition for mutual betterment, like we have with our former imperial colonies. Nothing about forming a super-state, no sharing of sovereignty, just working together on a range of practical issues. We could call it the European Economic Commonwealth.
Or for short, the EEC....
Yes... has a ring. Would have to have a couple of social rules like countries have to be actually democratic but yes. I like that.
My neighbour in my block showed me a leaflet that he'd had labelled OFFICIAL INFORMATION ABOUT THE REFERENDUM ON 23 JUNE 2016, subtitled Referendum Communication, with his name and address printed on it to look like the polling card. "Is this really official as when I read through it, it seems to be from vote Leave?" I said no, it looked like a trick. He was indignant: said he'd not been planning to vote at all as he didn't really care, but "fuck'em, I'll vote Remain, I won't be treated as an idiot." I asked if I could have the leaflet as I knew people who would be interested.
This does seem to me sleazy. Is it legal to represent a view as "Official Information"?
Incidentally, I haven't had one, though I've not been canvassed - I wonder what the selection criterion is.
Remain had a 9 million quid 'offical' propaganda piece through every door so boo hoo.
On our leaflets - and of interest to those who a few weeks ago were slagging-off the Leave campaign - these were clearly prepared well in advance.
1, Which way to vote for undecideds. 2, The facts - the 'offical' one you mention - Vote Leave official. 3. Labour Leave - we use these in Labour areas natch. We have a local Tory councillor who loves giving these out. 4. 5 Positive reasons to vote leave - number 1 NHS NHS NHS 5. NHS
Whoever wins needs to recognise the country is deeply split on this issue. Anyone ruling for 50.01% of the population is doing this country a great disservice.
Yes,Mr Smithson. And the present government is ruling with the support of under 25% of the registered voters. So that would be a very great disservice indeed.
There's a difference between being elected with less than 50% of the registered voters (which if you calculated it that way rather than even those who turned out, is very common) and not governing for the majority of people nevertheless. Obviously people will disagree on how reasonable a job the winner of an election is doing at governing for all the people and not just its own supporters however.
Or we could boil it down to a simplistic and misleading meme I suppose.
IIRC PClipp likes to use the registered voter stat. I am not sure why people who couldn't be arsed to vote are counted. Why not go the whole hog and count "eligible voters".
My neighbour in my block showed me a leaflet that he'd had labelled OFFICIAL INFORMATION ABOUT THE REFERENDUM ON 23 JUNE 2016, subtitled Referendum Communication, with his name and address printed on it to look like the polling card. "Is this really official as when I read through it, it seems to be from vote Leave?" I said no, it looked like a trick. He was indignant: said he'd not been planning to vote at all as he didn't really care, but "fuck'em, I'll vote Remain, I won't be treated as an idiot." I asked if I could have the leaflet as I knew people who would be interested.
This does seem to me sleazy. Is it legal to represent a view as "Official Information"?
Incidentally, I haven't had one, though I've not been canvassed - I wonder what the selection criterion is.
Remain had a 9 million quid 'offical' propaganda piece through every door so boo hoo.
On our leaflets - and of interest to those who a few weeks ago were slagging-off the Leave campaign - these were clearly prepared well in advance.
1, Which way to vote for undecideds. 2, The facts - the 'offical' one you mention - Vote Leave official. 3. Labour Leave - we use these in Labour areas natch. We have a local Tory councillor who loves giving these out. 4. 5 Positive reasons to vote leave - number 1 NHS NHS NHS 5. NHS
Doesn't look anything like a polling card, and it even has vote leave's logo on the front
Nope its another one - that was an original 'facts' one which was superseded a week or so ago by this one.
Ah, sorry I meant to reply to Nick. I know there was the official HMG leaflet, or are you saying there is a third? (ah, I should have checked the date!)
My neighbour in my block showed me a leaflet that he'd had labelled OFFICIAL INFORMATION ABOUT THE REFERENDUM ON 23 JUNE 2016, subtitled Referendum Communication, with his name and address printed on it to look like the polling card. "Is this really official as when I read through it, it seems to be from vote Leave?" I said no, it looked like a trick. He was indignant: said he'd not been planning to vote at all as he didn't really care, but "fuck'em, I'll vote Remain, I won't be treated as an idiot." I asked if I could have the leaflet as I knew people who would be interested.
This does seem to me sleazy. Is it legal to represent a view as "Official Information"?
Incidentally, I haven't had one, though I've not been canvassed - I wonder what the selection criterion is.
Remain had a 9 million quid 'offical' propaganda piece through every door so boo hoo.
On our leaflets - and of interest to those who a few weeks ago were slagging-off the Leave campaign - these were clearly prepared well in advance.
1, Which way to vote for undecideds. 2, The facts - the 'offical' one you mention - Vote Leave official. 3. Labour Leave - we use these in Labour areas natch. We have a local Tory councillor who loves giving these out. 4. 5 Positive reasons to vote leave - number 1 NHS NHS NHS 5. NHS
If the member states react to a Remain win in the way Cameron reacted to the result of the Scottish referendum, we'll be out of the EU within five to 10 years. I reckon I'm mostly 3, a bit of 4.
Just to clarify, you are a remainer (who thinks leave will win and bet accordingly) but if the E treat us like mugs you'd become a leaver?
It's just after the re negotiation, I can't see them doing anything else, and for that reason I'm out.
I imagine there'd be a landslide for Leave if after a Remain vote the EU thought that was a vote for more Europe. There are very few ardent Europeans in the UK. I like the single market and believe it benefits us, but that's a pragmatic view, not an ideological one. That's why a Leave vote followed by EEA/EFTA would not bother me too much. Sadly, the Leave focus on significantly reducing immigration during this campaign rules it out.
The problem is there will always be more EU and they will try to drag us in.
Behaviour of some of the England fans is an example of why I can't get enthused about football.
The story / pictures / video that seems to be emerging is that things are a but more complicated than drunk English fans causing trouble. Andy Burnham appears to have put his foot in it & twitter not impressed.
My neighbour in my block showed me a leaflet that he'd had labelled OFFICIAL INFORMATION ABOUT THE REFERENDUM ON 23 JUNE 2016, subtitled Referendum Communication, with his name and address printed on it to look like the polling card. "Is this really official as when I read through it, it seems to be from vote Leave?" I said no, it looked like a trick. He was indignant: said he'd not been planning to vote at all as he didn't really care, but "fuck'em, I'll vote Remain, I won't be treated as an idiot." I asked if I could have the leaflet as I knew people who would be interested.
This does seem to me sleazy. Is it legal to represent a view as "Official Information"?
Incidentally, I haven't had one, though I've not been canvassed - I wonder what the selection criterion is.
Remain had a 9 million quid 'offical' propaganda piece through every door so boo hoo.
On our leaflets - and of interest to those who a few weeks ago were slagging-off the Leave campaign - these were clearly prepared well in advance.
1, Which way to vote for undecideds. 2, The facts - the 'offical' one you mention - Vote Leave official. 3. Labour Leave - we use these in Labour areas natch. We have a local Tory councillor who loves giving these out. 4. 5 Positive reasons to vote leave - number 1 NHS NHS NHS 5. NHS
Doesn't look anything like a polling card, and it even has vote leave's logo on the front
I don't think more than a tiny proportion of the population would be able to identify Vote Leave's logo on sight.
My bad, we've clarified that the article I linked was for an earlier leaflet. The images I am seeing of the current leaflet include a map of future enlargement of the EU. What polling card that you have seen includes maps?
PS I know i'm probably carried away. Any Leaver out there who had the day we just did would be too. For as long as it lasts i'm going to enjoy it.
Ride the wave all the way to the beach - it'll be a long time before we do this again. Or if not - I'm making placards.
In the absence of being able to do that figuratively in the way you lucky chaps are in the UK, today I settled for trying to do that literally, I am probably a bit on the old side for surfing at 48, but given that I living 10 minutes walk from some of the best surf in the world I figured I better get off my arse and go and give it a go
My dear chap, are you sure that is wise? My last quack told me that gentlemen of, ahem, a certain age who take up an active sport for the first time are far more likely to do themselves harm harm good. "Swim gently if you must and can stand the boredom", he said, "but your best bet is to pick a pub about five miles away and walk there for lunch and back afterwards".
Eminently sensible Mr L,
He was a very wise and gentle physician, alas now retired. He quite literally saved my life once, probably twice, but on the other hand didn't believe the job of the medical profession was to extend life regardless of its quality.
With the boy I have now as my GP I have to spend time searching the internet to check what he is telling me. I caught him out once over a medication he wanted me to start taking. It wasn't difficult - some other quack had me taking the same stuff years ago and it caused me all sorts of grief, all in the notes but the boy doesn't seem to read those.
I have a theory that lower life expectancy amongst the "lower orders" is due not so much to lifestyle but to believing what their GPs tell them and not feeling empowered to challenge crap advice. I also have a sneaking suspicion that of those GPs who are prepared to take a job in a shitty area are, well, shall we say below par.
I am sure we can all agree that this referendum has become so unpredictable and the effect on UK and EU politics will have changed politics quite dramatically for good. In the UK the conservative party may or may not keep DC as PM but will continue to govern, labour are so adrift of their WWC support and in their leadership which, with the SNP problem, suggests they will never be in power in the UK as the labour party known to us.
Labour's one chance of keeping or regaining WWC support might ironically arise as a consequence of the very referendum result that it the party is campaigning to prevent. In the event of a Leave vote, with subsequent action being taken to limit EU migration, the salience of both the EU and migration issues might disappear and others would come to the fore. But if there's a Remain vote, those issues will continue to fester at least as much as now, and in that circumstance I agree with your conclusion.
This referendum has opened a whole can of worms the Establishment didn't want to recognise or seriously deal with.
Now all of us who've been named called as weird, xenophobes, racist, cranks, backwoodmen et al have discovered 50% of the population agree with us.
We're no longer the fringe - we're mainstream. Our views are shared across parties. If we don't make it over the line on the 23rd - we're not going to shut up either.
Exactly as in Indyref. The other political parties constantly taunt SNP/Green/pro Indy to give it up, as they lost.
Even if Remain do scrape home (and it is likely to be a narrow margin if they manage it, without a big event, now), this won't go away. Its likely to do for the leaders of the two main English parties, it could fling us into another GE. Messiness for years to come will be the main outcome, whatever the result.
Does anybody have a view of what happens to UKIP if we vote Leave?
Presumably we will then be 'independent' and their rationale will disappear... Or will they claim to effectively speak for a majority and seek to call for a general election. Somehow I can't see Farage just disappearing quietly to the pub with a self-congratulatory 'job done'.
I think the Northern UKIP mob who seem like Labour but for the working classes rather than the Guardian reading classes may carry on. We will see.
If we're out of the EU they'll need some more policies. That will be interesting given their Thatcherite roots.
Farage has Thatcherite roots as does Evans. Nuttall not so much.
They have other policies which are a bit centerist/leftish and then there is the control of immigration. They can sell that.
We'll already have control of immigration, unless there's a Tory Leave betrayal. And if there is, that's UKIP's big selling point. To go left they need an entirely new leadership. Nuttal is as right-wing as the others - see his views on the NHS, for example. That said there was always a strong Tory working class base. That has disappeared. Maybe that will be UKIP's real role post-Brexit.
PS I know i'm probably carried away. Any Leaver out there who had the day we just did would be too. For as long as it lasts i'm going to enjoy it.
Ride the wave all the way to the beach - it'll be a long time before we do this again. Or if not - I'm making placards.
In the absence of being able to do that figuratively in the way you lucky chaps are in the UK, today I settled for trying to do that literally, I am probably a bit on the old side for surfing at 48, but given that I living 10 minutes walk from some of the best surf in the world I figured I better get off my arse and go and give it a go
My dear chap, are you sure that is wise? My last quack told me that gentlemen of, ahem, a certain age who take up an active sport for the first time are far more likely to do themselves harm harm good. "Swim gently if you must and can stand the boredom", he said, "but your best bet is to pick a pub about five miles away and walk there for lunch and back afterwards".
Eminently sensible Mr L,
He was a very wise and gentle physician, alas now retired. He quite literally saved my life once, probably twice, but on the other hand didn't believe the job of the medical profession was to extend life regardless of its quality.
With the boy I have now as my GP I have to spend time searching the internet to check what he is telling me. I caught him out once over a medication he wanted me to start taking. It wasn't difficult - some other quack had me taking the same stuff years ago and it caused me all sorts of grief, all in the notes but the boy doesn't seem to read those.
I have a theory that lower life expectancy amongst the "lower orders" is due not so much to lifestyle but to believing what their GPs tell them and not feeling empowered to challenge crap advice. I also have a sneaking suspicion that of those GPs who are prepared to take a job in a shitty area are, well, shall we say below par.
Like your good self I tend to take quacks with a pinch of salt.
basically they're just guessing most of the time, educated experienced guesses of course but guesses nonetheless.
Much of the above may be valid, in that many will vote Remain grudgingly to hang onto nurse for fear of something worse, particularly economically. However, a vote for Remain will be correctly viewed by the EU and leading European countries as a commitment by the UK to progress to ever closer union. I was led to believe that proposals for a single European army will be tabled by the end of June (but after 23rd).
You state that "The winner in a democratic election always needs to remember that they have to rule for and over those who did not vote for them." The key reason for this is that there will be another election in a few years. This caveat does not apply for the referendum on 23/6, as it is unlikely that there would be another such vote soon. The UK's bluff will have been called and there will no prospect for a generation or more of having another chance to reverse the decision made in the early 1970's to join the EEC.
A vote to Remain would be viewed incorrectly by the EU as a vote for ever closer union. Cameron's much disparaged negotiation specifically ruled out the UK for that course.
Well said Perdix, and I second that point. I doubt that anyone in the EU would view a Remain vote as the UK suddenly changing its very vocal and critical Eurosceptic position after forty years.
They have ignored our position for the last 40 years and are not about to change that now.
Our position or your position? No former Prime Minister who's still around wants to leave.
Mr. Phil, the euro point changes, but that's not the key point.
The key point is that Scotland can't choose to leave the UK and demand to use the UK's currency. It's literally incredible.
It makes as much sense as Germany leaving the EU and insisting it has the right to use the euro.
Were Scotland to apply to join the EU, as part of the terms of it joining it would have to accept that it adopted the Euro, as do all new applicants to join the EU.
In 2014, Sturgeon made a (rather dubious) case that as Scotland would already be part of the EU when it broke from the UK, it wouldn't be forced to use the Euro and could thus choose to continue to use the pound. Sturgeon can't make that case in the event of the UK already having left.
Were Scotland not to be forced to adopt the Euro, it could use the pound or US dollar or whatever passes for the Zimbabwean currency nowadays, it's just it would not have any input whatsoever into the monetary policy of the country whose currency it chose to use.
My neighbour in my block showed me a leaflet that he'd had labelled OFFICIAL INFORMATION ABOUT THE REFERENDUM ON 23 JUNE 2016, subtitled Referendum Communication, with his name and address printed on it to look like the polling card. "Is this really official as when I read through it, it seems to be from vote Leave?" I said no, it looked like a trick. He was indignant: said he'd not been planning to vote at all as he didn't really care, but "fuck'em, I'll vote Remain, I won't be treated as an idiot." I asked if I could have the leaflet as I knew people who would be interested.
This does seem to me sleazy. Is it legal to represent a view as "Official Information"?
Incidentally, I haven't had one, though I've not been canvassed - I wonder what the selection criterion is.
Remain had a 9 million quid 'offical' propaganda piece through every door so boo hoo.
On our leaflets - and of interest to those who a few weeks ago were slagging-off the Leave campaign - these were clearly prepared well in advance.
1, Which way to vote for undecideds. 2, The facts - the 'offical' one you mention - Vote Leave official. 3. Labour Leave - we use these in Labour areas natch. We have a local Tory councillor who loves giving these out. 4. 5 Positive reasons to vote leave - number 1 NHS NHS NHS 5. NHS
Doesn't look anything like a polling card, and it even has vote leave's logo on the front
I don't think more than a tiny proportion of the population would be able to identify Vote Leave's logo on sight.
My bad, we've clarified that the article I linked was for an earlier leaflet. The images I am seeing of the current leaflet include a map of future enlargement of the EU. What polling card that you have seen includes maps?
"I imagine there'd be a landslide for Leave if after a Remain vote the EU thought that was a vote for more Europe. There are very few ardent Europeans in the UK."
A landslide in what election? With the leadership all three major parties firmly parked in the EU camp, how do we get another vote if we get screwed over this time?
Comments
Miss Plato, I said yesterday the shrieking about 'humanity' from Izzard on Question Time reminded me of The Simpsons: "Won't somebody please think of the children?"
Faisal Islam on Twitter the other day had a theory that Nige would be happy with a narrow defeat, because 'it would do for UKIP what it did for the SNP'.
Other than that, depends on whether we have another GE in the fallout of a Leave vote. if we don't go back to the polls until 2020, Brexit will be in progress or concluded, so could mean a limited role for UKIP.
Those former MEPs will be looking for a new job, though...expect to see some challenges to anyone implicated in election expenses problems, UKIP will be looking for some by-elections.
Could you have a quiet word with Mr Cameron please :-)
For a lot of people, the economy as a separate subject now seems to be becoming much less important. Who can believe anything anyone says on the economic consequences of remaining or leaving. At best they’re guessing (isn’t that what economics is?), at worst they’re lying and talking to their own position with no regard for the consequences beyond that: concerned fat cats, whatever next.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TtF5L9bKfO8
He'll be making a Prime Ministerial statement on a grave threat to this country security and welfare.
I'd love to have the same feeling as a lot of us did on election night '15 when the exit poll came out and pb's collective jaw hit the table. What a time to be alive! Roll on the 23rd
"If you're working on a ZHC in an Amazon warehouse, renting privately, you're far more likely to lean towards Leave. However, you're also statistically less likely to be registered to vote and/or turn out."
The issue of ZHC is something that has festered - without the EU doing anything to lance the boil. The worst excesses of ZHC were addressed by this Govt., not the EU. The young will see the EU as not being on their side on this issue.
Well done, Sir!
The SNP case for joining the EU in the circumstances of the UK leaving is in any case riddled with contradictions. For example, it's hard to make a case stick that you are withdrawing from the benefits of a single UK market with which Scotland does perhaps 65% of its external trade to enjoy the benefits (?) of a single EU market which accounts for 20% of Scotland's external trade. If access to a single market really matters that much, shouldn't access to your biggest single market be the priority if you are forced to choose?
On the other hand, no more European Parliament money will be a big hit. Article 8, clause 1 of the Lisbon treaty requires the EU to "develop a special relationship with neighbouring countries, aiming to establish an area of prosperity and good neighbourliness, founded on the values of the Union and characterised by close and peaceful relations based on cooperation". And it's not like the EU ever goes against treaties when it suits them...
The key point is that Scotland can't choose to leave the UK and demand to use the UK's currency. It's literally incredible.
It makes as much sense as Germany leaving the EU and insisting it has the right to use the euro.
But not for sticking with it at any price, to the point of stupidity. We've given the EU 40 years and they aren't for changing. They've just proved that to the hilt with the renegotiation.
IMHO the Labour party has just about gone beyond reclaim as a mainstream political competitor. Conservative party doesn't yet seem to me to have done that.
https://twitter.com/r_j_champion/status/741664449287860224
There's a piece by Christopher Howse in today's Telegraph referencing Syon House which Istr you had some interest in a little while ago.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2016/06/10/sacred-mysteries-swedens-heroine-who-defied-the-nazis/
Absolute genius!
Jezza instructs Scots not to vote for Brexit in hope of provoking Indyref2.
He really is seeking a Leave vote.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/11/corbyn-urges-voters-in-scotland-to-show-solidarity-with-people-across-eu
If it brings the Swedes and Danes it could be something....
There are a lot of groups around the EU supporting Brexit because they don't like the EU.
https://sports.spreadex.com/en-GB/spread-betting/Politics/UK-Politics/EU-Referendum/p385304
This does seem to me sleazy. Is it legal to represent a view as "Official Information"?
Incidentally, I haven't had one, though I've not been canvassed - I wonder what the selection criterion is.
(Predictive text suggested 'Swindon' rather than 'Sweden'!)
Or for short, the EEC....
It's just after the re negotiation, I can't see them doing anything else, and for that reason I'm out.
The unacceptable face of capitalism.
If Germany leaves the EU, it takes all the Euros credibility with it whether it chooses to use the Euro or not.
I guess it's targeted at 'leans Remain' as that's what I've told them twice (once over the phone, another time on the football prediction site)
I think I might give the euros in Russia in a few years a miss!
On our leaflets - and of interest to those who a few weeks ago were slagging-off the Leave campaign - these were clearly prepared well in advance.
1, Which way to vote for undecideds.
2, The facts - the 'offical' one you mention - Vote Leave official.
3. Labour Leave - we use these in Labour areas natch. We have a local Tory councillor who loves giving these out.
4. 5 Positive reasons to vote leave - number 1 NHS NHS NHS
5. NHS
With more to come as we get closer..
They have other policies which are a bit centerist/leftish and then there is the control of immigration. They can sell that.
Or we could boil it down to a simplistic and misleading meme I suppose.
If what I've read is correct, the way the EU is run is very similar to the way European countries are run, and therefore has a much better 'fit' with them than with the UK.
Their understanding of democracy seems to be rather different from ours. (Not knocking being different, you understand.)
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/vote-leave-deception-eu-referendum_uk_5703b56ee4b0c5bd919bc05e
Doesn't look anything like a polling card, and it even has vote leave's logo on the front
EEC. Why hasn't anyone thought of that before?
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ckq6PJwW0AAvLMP.jpg
With the boy I have now as my GP I have to spend time searching the internet to check what he is telling me. I caught him out once over a medication he wanted me to start taking. It wasn't difficult - some other quack had me taking the same stuff years ago and it caused me all sorts of grief, all in the notes but the boy doesn't seem to read those.
I have a theory that lower life expectancy amongst the "lower orders" is due not so much to lifestyle but to believing what their GPs tell them and not feeling empowered to challenge crap advice. I also have a sneaking suspicion that of those GPs who are prepared to take a job in a shitty area are, well, shall we say below par.
basically they're just guessing most of the time, educated experienced guesses of course but guesses nonetheless.
In 2014, Sturgeon made a (rather dubious) case that as Scotland would already be part of the EU when it broke from the UK, it wouldn't be forced to use the Euro and could thus choose to continue to use the pound. Sturgeon can't make that case in the event of the UK already having left.
Were Scotland not to be forced to adopt the Euro, it could use the pound or US dollar or whatever passes for the Zimbabwean currency nowadays, it's just it would not have any input whatsoever into the monetary policy of the country whose currency it chose to use.
"I imagine there'd be a landslide for Leave if after a Remain vote the EU thought that was a vote for more Europe. There are very few ardent Europeans in the UK."
A landslide in what election? With the leadership all three major parties firmly parked in the EU camp, how do we get another vote if we get screwed over this time?