Undecided but more likely to vote REMAIN than LEAVE 22%
Undecided but more likely to vote LEAVE than REMAIN 23%
Lean more towards the UK LEAVING the EU 4%
So that's 39% of Undecideds moving to Remain and 27% towards Leave
And now give us the figures before tbe weighting adustments (you know, tbe ones that had leave eight points ahead)
Youve lost and you know it.
Don't talk dribble.
But I do love the complacency of Leavers.
How is the canvassing going?
Good, I think more people are getting engaged with it.
I think it backs up the polling, Brexit is seen as a risk/bad for the economy.
A majority of people won't vote for that.
Is like the 2015 GE polling, neck and neck but the supplementaries showed Ed Miliband/Labour would be bad for the economy and personally for the voters.
Undecided but more likely to vote REMAIN than LEAVE 22%
Undecided but more likely to vote LEAVE than REMAIN 23%
Lean more towards the UK LEAVING the EU 4%
So that's 39% of Undecideds moving to Remain and 27% towards Leave
And now give us the figures before tbe weighting adustments (you know, tbe ones that had leave eight points ahead)
Youve lost and you know it.
Don't talk dribble.
But I do love the complacency of Leavers.
Believe me, I am anything but complacent.
I still think Remain are better organised with the better groundgame.
And under no circumstances will I underestimate the ability of the powers-that-be to coordinate and choreograph effective messages over the next 12 days.
I give up trying to campaign for the various Leave campaigns. They can't even organise a fucking poster through the post. Just came back from a wasted two hour journey trying to meet people for canvassing. Fuck it Remain will win this, Leave couldn't organise a piss up in a brewery. Tried phoning, e-mailing etc but nothing from Vote leave, Labour Leave etc.
Can't be fucked to vote if these lot are so crap, do we want them running the country? No. Sad really as I am staunchy leave aswell. I wonder who else has had similar experiences to mine.
The fact that your local organiser is disorganised isn't a reason to give up.
its not one "organiser" i've tried the different Leave groups-all shit.
Really? Well, still get out and vote... Please.
I think I'll back remain now can't have these halfwits running the country.
The halfwits running the country are the REMAIN camp
"UK oil and gas production generated negative receipts in 2015-16 of -£24m, compared with +£2.15bn the year before. Petroleum Revenue Tax (PRT) revenue was -£562m, following refunds to companies, while corporation tax revenue fell by 74% over the year to £538m."
What does this do to the prospects of the SNP pushing for SindyRef2 if Brexit wins?
I give up trying to campaign for the various Leave campaigns. They can't even organise a fucking poster through the post. Just came back from a wasted two hour journey trying to meet people for canvassing. Fuck it Remain will win this, Leave couldn't organise a piss up in a brewery. Tried phoning, e-mailing etc but nothing from Vote leave, Labour Leave etc.
Can't be fucked to vote if these lot are so crap, do we want them running the country? No. Sad really as I am staunchy leave aswell. I wonder who else has had similar experiences to mine.
The fact that your local organiser is disorganised isn't a reason to give up.
its not one "organiser" i've tried the different Leave groups-all shit.
Really? Well, still get out and vote... Please.
I think I'll back remain now can't have these halfwits running the country.
Undecided but more likely to vote REMAIN than LEAVE 22%
Undecided but more likely to vote LEAVE than REMAIN 23%
Lean more towards the UK LEAVING the EU 4%
So that's 39% of Undecideds moving to Remain and 27% towards Leave
And now give us the figures before tbe weighting adustments (you know, tbe ones that had leave eight points ahead)
Youve lost and you know it.
In the spirit of Cyclefree's article, we shouldn't treat this as some kind of game. We're voting to either leave or remain in the EU.
If Remain gets the largest vote share I shan't consider that I've lost, anymore than an ardent remainer would if the roles were reversed.
Based on this poll it's going to be very close. However, I still think Remain has more resources than Leave, and that the undecideds will drift towards the status quo.
Yes, sorry. I deleted that line but too late. Someone elses post had irritated me and I posted in haste...
I give up trying to campaign for the various Leave campaigns. They can't even organise a fucking poster through the post. Just came back from a wasted two hour journey trying to meet people for canvassing. Fuck it Remain will win this, Leave couldn't organise a piss up in a brewery. Tried phoning, e-mailing etc but nothing from Vote leave, Labour Leave etc.
Can't be fucked to vote if these lot are so crap, do we want them running the country? No. Sad really as I am staunchy leave aswell. I wonder who else has had similar experiences to mine.
The fact that your local organiser is disorganised isn't a reason to give up.
its not one "organiser" i've tried the different Leave groups-all shit.
Really? Well, still get out and vote... Please.
I think I'll back remain now can't have these halfwits running the country.
Really? Even if it's 100% for Leave, we will still have the same civil servants, and a Tory government.
Nigel Farage will never run a government department.
Just thinking of all those Scots drinking vodka and cheering on Russia.
We Putin-loving Little Englanders are feeling so conflicted....
Nah, it's just like the English football hooligans of the 80s who used to chant 'You'd be Krauts if it wasn't for us' whilst simultaneously performing Nazi salutes
I give up trying to campaign for the various Leave campaigns. They can't even organise a fucking poster through the post. Just came back from a wasted two hour journey trying to meet people for canvassing. Fuck it Remain will win this, Leave couldn't organise a piss up in a brewery. Tried phoning, e-mailing etc but nothing from Vote leave, Labour Leave etc.
Can't be fucked to vote if these lot are so crap, do we want them running the country? No. Sad really as I am staunchy leave aswell. I wonder who else has had similar experiences to mine.
The fact that your local organiser is disorganised isn't a reason to give up.
its not one "organiser" i've tried the different Leave groups-all shit.
I give up trying to campaign for the various Leave campaigns. They can't even organise a fucking poster through the post. Just came back from a wasted two hour journey trying to meet people for canvassing. Fuck it Remain will win this, Leave couldn't organise a piss up in a brewery. Tried phoning, e-mailing etc but nothing from Vote leave, Labour Leave etc.
Can't be fucked to vote if these lot are so crap, do we want them running the country? No. Sad really as I am staunchy leave aswell. I wonder who else has had similar experiences to mine.
Sorry to hear that nunu. I understand how you feel and thank you for your efforts.
I speak as someone who delivered 2,000 leaflets in his own area for not dissimilar reasons.
My best advice would be to hook up with a friend or pb'er who knows what's going on, and is well-tapped in to a campaign local to you.
Just thinking of all those Scots drinking vodka and cheering on Russia.
We Putin-loving Little Englanders are feeling so conflicted....
Nah, it's just like the English football hooligans of the 80s who used to chant 'You'd be Krauts if it wasn't for us' whilst simultaneously performing Nazi salutes
If they were hooliganing in France, they sort of had a point?
There's quite a bit in that Opinium poll to give Leave encouragement.
The raw, unweighted figures break 40% Remain, 46% Leave. Weighting changes a 6% Leave lead into a 2% Remain lead. Significant weighting includes: UKIP voters reduced by 23%, 18-34s increased by 58%, C2DEs increased by 28%. Reweighting on this scale is never a good sign, and always makes me wonder whether the reweighting scheme itself might be exaggerating shifts from the raw results.
There appears to be no turnout filter. Yet only 59% of 18-34s declare themselves 10/10 certain to vote, compared to 88% of 65+. On 10/10 certainty to vote only, Leave have a lead of 48% to 44%. So turnout changes a 2% Remain lead to a 4% Leave lead.
Remain can take some encouragement that the headline results do not include responses to the "Nudge" question, where Remain has a slight lead which would add 1.5% to Remain's margin if they all voted. But only 43% of the DKs declare themselves 10/10 certain to vote, so the effect is going to be much more marginal.
Undecided but more likely to vote REMAIN than LEAVE 22%
Undecided but more likely to vote LEAVE than REMAIN 23%
Lean more towards the UK LEAVING the EU 4%
So that's 39% of Undecideds moving to Remain and 27% towards Leave
And now give us the figures before tbe weighting adustments (you know, tbe ones that had leave eight points ahead)
Youve lost and you know it.
Don't talk dribble.
But I do love the complacency of Leavers.
How is the canvassing going?
Good, I think more people are getting engaged with it.
I think it backs up the polling, Brexit is seen as a risk/bad for the economy.
A majority of people won't vote for that.
Is like the 2015 GE polling, neck and neck but the supplementaries showed Ed Miliband/Labour would be bad for the economy and personally for the voters.
Hmmm
personally I've been surprised at people I thought were definite remainers saying they'll vote Leave and vice versa. In the discussions Ive been involved in the two sides just speak another language. Remain is all about money and Leave is about a wide range of issues and the two sides struggle to find any common ground.
Just thinking of all those Scots drinking vodka and cheering on Russia.
We Putin-loving Little Englanders are feeling so conflicted....
Nah, it's just like the English football hooligans of the 80s who used to chant 'You'd be Krauts if it wasn't for us' whilst simultaneously performing Nazi salutes
I give up trying to campaign for the various Leave campaigns. They can't even organise a fucking poster through the post. Just came back from a wasted two hour journey trying to meet people for canvassing. Fuck it Remain will win this, Leave couldn't organise a piss up in a brewery. Tried phoning, e-mailing etc but nothing from Vote leave, Labour Leave etc.
Can't be fucked to vote if these lot are so crap, do we want them running the country? No. Sad really as I am staunchy leave aswell. I wonder who else has had similar experiences to mine.
The fact that your local organiser is disorganised isn't a reason to give up.
its not one "organiser" i've tried the different Leave groups-all shit.
Really? Well, still get out and vote... Please.
I think I'll back remain now can't have these halfwits running the country.
Apparently I do need to keep reminding people that this isn't an election, so Leave won't be running the country if they win.
I give up trying to campaign for the various Leave campaigns. They can't even organise a fucking poster through the post. Just came back from a wasted two hour journey trying to meet people for canvassing. Fuck it Remain will win this, Leave couldn't organise a piss up in a brewery. Tried phoning, e-mailing etc but nothing from Vote leave, Labour Leave etc.
Can't be fucked to vote if these lot are so crap, do we want them running the country? No. Sad really as I am staunchy leave aswell. I wonder who else has had similar experiences to mine.
The fact that your local organiser is disorganised isn't a reason to give up.
its not one "organiser" i've tried the different Leave groups-all shit.
Really? Well, still get out and vote... Please.
I think I'll back remain now can't have these halfwits running the country.
If Leave win Cameron is still running the country.
I give up trying to campaign for the various Leave campaigns. They can't even organise a fucking poster through the post. Just came back from a wasted two hour journey trying to meet people for canvassing. Fuck it Remain will win this, Leave couldn't organise a piss up in a brewery. Tried phoning, e-mailing etc but nothing from Vote leave, Labour Leave etc.
Can't be fucked to vote if these lot are so crap, do we want them running the country? No. Sad really as I am staunchy leave aswell. I wonder who else has had similar experiences to mine.
The fact that your local organiser is disorganised isn't a reason to give up.
its not one "organiser" i've tried the different Leave groups-all shit.
Really? Well, still get out and vote... Please.
I think I'll back remain now can't have these halfwits running the country.
If Leave win Cameron is still running the country.
Undecided but more likely to vote REMAIN than LEAVE 22%
Undecided but more likely to vote LEAVE than REMAIN 23%
Lean more towards the UK LEAVING the EU 4%
So that's 39% of Undecideds moving to Remain and 27% towards Leave
And now give us the figures before tbe weighting adustments (you know, tbe ones that had leave eight points ahead)
Youve lost and you know it.
Don't talk dribble.
But I do love the complacency of Leavers.
How is the canvassing going?
Good, I think more people are getting engaged with it.
I think it backs up the polling, Brexit is seen as a risk/bad for the economy.
A majority of people won't vote for that.
Is like the 2015 GE polling, neck and neck but the supplementaries showed Ed Miliband/Labour would be bad for the economy and personally for the voters.
Hmmm
personally I've been surprised at people I thought were definite remainers saying they'll vote Leave and vice versa. In the discussions Ive been involved in the two sides just speak another language. Remain is all about money and Leave is about a wide range of issues and the two sides struggle to find any common ground.
I don't say TSE is wrong, but I think a big problem with that thesis is that the voting coalition for Remain is totally different from that which delivered a Tory victory, and people are voting on democracy /sovereignty /immigration /NHS /identity, as well as the economy, this time. The GE was basically on best PM + economy v. NHS + austerity.
Besides which, we should avoid the myth making of GE2015. The polls were out but only by 3-4% either way - e.g. 34/34 turned into 30-37.
Can't be fucked to vote if these lot are so crap, do we want them running the country? No. Sad really as I am staunchy leave aswell. I wonder who else has had similar experiences to mine.
They are not going to be running the country.
They are also stretched very thin, as you can imagine. It took me several moths to get an event organised - I was finally so sick of it I had to hand it over to my team to do (they are much better at corralling people than me).
Undecided but more likely to vote REMAIN than LEAVE 22%
Undecided but more likely to vote LEAVE than REMAIN 23%
Lean more towards the UK LEAVING the EU 4%
So that's 39% of Undecideds moving to Remain and 27% towards Leave
And now give us the figures before tbe weighting adustments (you know, tbe ones that had leave eight points ahead)
Youve lost and you know it.
Don't talk dribble.
But I do love the complacency of Leavers.
How is the canvassing going?
Good, I think more people are getting engaged with it.
I think it backs up the polling, Brexit is seen as a risk/bad for the economy.
A majority of people won't vote for that.
Is like the 2015 GE polling, neck and neck but the supplementaries showed Ed Miliband/Labour would be bad for the economy and personally for the voters.
Yes obviously economy is the most important thing. Although it should be noted plenty of people voted UKIP and Labour at the last election, unlikely economy is the most important thing for these people.
Can't be fucked to vote if these lot are so crap, do we want them running the country? No. Sad really as I am staunchy leave aswell. I wonder who else has had similar experiences to mine.
They are not going to be running the country.
They are also stretched very thin, as you can imagine. It took me several moths to get an event organised - I was finally so sick of it I had to hand it over to my team to do (they are much better at corralling people than me).
Undecided but more likely to vote REMAIN than LEAVE 22%
Undecided but more likely to vote LEAVE than REMAIN 23%
Lean more towards the UK LEAVING the EU 4%
So that's 39% of Undecideds moving to Remain and 27% towards Leave
And now give us the figures before tbe weighting adustments (you know, tbe ones that had leave eight points ahead)
Youve lost and you know it.
Don't talk dribble.
But I do love the complacency of Leavers.
How is the canvassing going?
Good, I think more people are getting engaged with it.
I think it backs up the polling, Brexit is seen as a risk/bad for the economy.
A majority of people won't vote for that.
Is like the 2015 GE polling, neck and neck but the supplementaries showed Ed Miliband/Labour would be bad for the economy and personally for the voters.
Yes obviously economy is the most important thing. Although it should be noted plenty of people voted UKIP and Labour at the last election, unlikely economy is the most important thing for these people.
But this is an either \ or vote. 63% of the country voted against the Conservative pitch on the economy.
I give up trying to campaign for the various Leave campaigns. They can't even organise a fucking poster through the post. Just came back from a wasted two hour journey trying to meet people for canvassing. Fuck it Remain will win this, Leave couldn't organise a piss up in a brewery. Tried phoning, e-mailing etc but nothing from Vote leave, Labour Leave etc.
Can't be fucked to vote if these lot are so crap, do we want them running the country? No. Sad really as I am staunchy leave aswell. I wonder who else has had similar experiences to mine.
The fact that your local organiser is disorganised isn't a reason to give up.
its not one "organiser" i've tried the different Leave groups-all shit.
Really? Well, still get out and vote... Please.
I think I'll back remain now can't have these halfwits running the country.
If Leave win Cameron is still running the country.
I give up trying to campaign for the various Leave campaigns. They can't even organise a fucking poster through the post. Just came back from a wasted two hour journey trying to meet people for canvassing. Fuck it Remain will win this, Leave couldn't organise a piss up in a brewery. Tried phoning, e-mailing etc but nothing from Vote leave, Labour Leave etc.
Can't be fucked to vote if these lot are so crap, do we want them running the country? No. Sad really as I am staunchy leave aswell. I wonder who else has had similar experiences to mine.
The fact that your local organiser is disorganised isn't a reason to give up.
its not one "organiser" i've tried the different Leave groups-all shit.
I've PM'd you.
when you PM I auto get it in google e-mail, they are linked so it shouldn't bunce back just pm me and it will come in my e-mail.
Undecided but more likely to vote REMAIN than LEAVE 22%
Undecided but more likely to vote LEAVE than REMAIN 23%
Lean more towards the UK LEAVING the EU 4%
So that's 39% of Undecideds moving to Remain and 27% towards Leave
And now give us the figures before tbe weighting adustments (you know, tbe ones that had leave eight points ahead)
Youve lost and you know it.
Don't talk dribble.
But I do love the complacency of Leavers.
How is the canvassing going?
Good, I think more people are getting engaged with it.
I think it backs up the polling, Brexit is seen as a risk/bad for the economy.
A majority of people won't vote for that.
Is like the 2015 GE polling, neck and neck but the supplementaries showed Ed Miliband/Labour would be bad for the economy and personally for the voters.
FWIW, I think people vote on different factors in referenda vs elections
I give up trying to campaign for the various Leave campaigns. They can't even organise a fucking poster through the post. Just came back from a wasted two hour journey trying to meet people for canvassing. Fuck it Remain will win this, Leave couldn't organise a piss up in a brewery. Tried phoning, e-mailing etc but nothing from Vote leave, Labour Leave etc.
Can't be fucked to vote if these lot are so crap, do we want them running the country? No. Sad really as I am staunchy leave aswell. I wonder who else has had similar experiences to mine.
The fact that your local organiser is disorganised isn't a reason to give up.
its not one "organiser" i've tried the different Leave groups-all shit.
Really? Well, still get out and vote... Please.
I think I'll back remain now can't have these halfwits running the country.
Apparently I do need to keep reminding people that this isn't an election, so Leave won't be running the country if they win.
Undecided but more likely to vote REMAIN than LEAVE 22%
Undecided but more likely to vote LEAVE than REMAIN 23%
Lean more towards the UK LEAVING the EU 4%
So that's 39% of Undecideds moving to Remain and 27% towards Leave
And now give us the figures before tbe weighting adustments (you know, tbe ones that had leave eight points ahead)
Youve lost and you know it.
Don't talk dribble.
But I do love the complacency of Leavers.
How is the canvassing going?
Good, I think more people are getting engaged with it.
I think it backs up the polling, Brexit is seen as a risk/bad for the economy.
A majority of people won't vote for that.
Is like the 2015 GE polling, neck and neck but the supplementaries showed Ed Miliband/Labour would be bad for the economy and personally for the voters.
Yes obviously economy is the most important thing. Although it should be noted plenty of people voted UKIP and Labour at the last election, unlikely economy is the most important thing for these people.
But this is an either \ or vote. 63% of the country voted against the Conservative pitch on the economy.
I don't think that's true, given that the LDs were getting votes on the basis of an expected continuation of the coalition and many UKIP voters would have preferred Con to Lab.
Undecided but more likely to vote REMAIN than LEAVE 22%
Undecided but more likely to vote LEAVE than REMAIN 23%
Lean more towards the UK LEAVING the EU 4%
So that's 39% of Undecideds moving to Remain and 27% towards Leave
And now give us the figures before tbe weighting adustments (you know, tbe ones that had leave eight points ahead)
Youve lost and you know it.
Don't talk dribble.
But I do love the complacency of Leavers.
How is the canvassing going?
Good, I think more people are getting engaged with it.
I think it backs up the polling, Brexit is seen as a risk/bad for the economy.
A majority of people won't vote for that.
Is like the 2015 GE polling, neck and neck but the supplementaries showed Ed Miliband/Labour would be bad for the economy and personally for the voters.
Yes obviously economy is the most important thing. Although it should be noted plenty of people voted UKIP and Labour at the last election, unlikely economy is the most important thing for these people.
But this is an either \ or vote. 63% of the country voted against the Conservative pitch on the economy.
And Cameron needs a big chunk of that 63% to line up behind him. What could possibly go wrong?
Undecided but more likely to vote REMAIN than LEAVE 22%
Undecided but more likely to vote LEAVE than REMAIN 23%
Lean more towards the UK LEAVING the EU 4%
So that's 39% of Undecideds moving to Remain and 27% towards Leave
And now give us the figures before tbe weighting adustments (you know, tbe ones that had leave eight points ahead)
Youve lost and you know it.
Don't talk dribble.
But I do love the complacency of Leavers.
How is the canvassing going?
Good, I think more people are getting engaged with it.
I think it backs up the polling, Brexit is seen as a risk/bad for the economy.
A majority of people won't vote for that.
Is like the 2015 GE polling, neck and neck but the supplementaries showed Ed Miliband/Labour would be bad for the economy and personally for the voters.
Hmmm
personally I've been surprised at people I thought were definite remainers saying they'll vote Leave and vice versa. In the discussions Ive been involved in the two sides just speak another language. Remain is all about money and Leave is about a wide range of issues and the two sides struggle to find any common ground.
I canvassed the granddaughter of West Indian immigrants in a very working class part of Sheffield she said
'I'm tempted to vote Leave, there's far too many Roma layabouts and Europeans taking jobs from us Brits in Sheffield. But if they get rid of them, then Farage will start blaming me for the all problems in the country, so I'm voting Remain, plus its bad for the economy leaving'
Lovely to see the rise of English nationalism in Marseille. I feel particularly proud to be English. Italian news is presenting it hand in hand with Brexit sentiment- nihilistic, nationalism- you can hear our English citizens chanting singing fuck off EU.
I thought we were getting over this sort of nonsense, but with Brexit, this nastiness is being unleashed.
It is really sad to see my country revert back to the populist horror that was so pervasive in 20th Century politics.
On a positive note, I am keeping my fingers crossed that this mindless, overt, English nationalism will be the game changer that persuades people to cross the remain box ie...not wanting anything to do with the overt, shameless, mindless racism, and insular negativity that lies at the heart of the Brexit campaign. Shameful.
BTW- I've unexiled myself.
No comment on the Russian behaviour? Very balanced
There has been a lot more comment on the Russian behaviour (undoubtedly true) than the French behaviour.
I give up trying to campaign for the various Leave campaigns. They can't even organise a fucking poster through the post. Just came back from a wasted two hour journey trying to meet people for canvassing. Fuck it Remain will win this, Leave couldn't organise a piss up in a brewery. Tried phoning, e-mailing etc but nothing from Vote leave, Labour Leave etc.
Can't be fucked to vote if these lot are so crap, do we want them running the country? No. Sad really as I am staunchy leave aswell. I wonder who else has had similar experiences to mine.
The fact that your local organiser is disorganised isn't a reason to give up.
its not one "organiser" i've tried the different Leave groups-all shit.
Really? Well, still get out and vote... Please.
I think I'll back remain now can't have these halfwits running the country.
Apparently I do need to keep reminding people that this isn't an election, so Leave won't be running the country if they win.
I see the European teams are doing well in the football. Wonder what this does for the Euref?
I would go so far as to say a European team could win it....
I tell you if Remain can use these horrible images from Marseille being stoked by Brexit insular nationalism then this could provide the pivotal moment.
If I was Brexit I wouldn't like my cause to be chanted by these mindless hooligans. But there again, at Brexit's heart lies a dark racism so I doubt very much that they can disassociate themselves from it.
You're right Tyson. We are the British version of the Sturmabteilung. Boris Johnson will deliver a speech at Wembley finishing with "Now People rise up, and let the Storm break loose!"
And then, we'll be coming for you.
You know those situations when you think you're being funny but when you look back on it you realise it actually comes across as a bit psychotic?...
Can't be fucked to vote if these lot are so crap, do we want them running the country? No. Sad really as I am staunchy leave aswell. I wonder who else has had similar experiences to mine.
They are not going to be running the country.
They are also stretched very thin, as you can imagine. It took me several moths to get an event organised - I was finally so sick of it I had to hand it over to my team to do (they are much better at corralling people than me).
Don't let the frustration change your vote
Not everyone has people, Charles
True! (I only have 8 - my elder brother got 500...)
Undecided but more likely to vote REMAIN than LEAVE 22%
Undecided but more likely to vote LEAVE than REMAIN 23%
Lean more towards the UK LEAVING the EU 4%
So that's 39% of Undecideds moving to Remain and 27% towards Leave
And now give us the figures before tbe weighting adustments (you know, tbe ones that had leave eight points ahead)
Youve lost and you know it.
Don't talk dribble.
But I do love the complacency of Leavers.
How is the canvassing going?
Good, I think more people are getting engaged with it.
I think it backs up the polling, Brexit is seen as a risk/bad for the economy.
A majority of people won't vote for that.
Is like the 2015 GE polling, neck and neck but the supplementaries showed Ed Miliband/Labour would be bad for the economy and personally for the voters.
According to Opinium Labour voters back Remain 63% to 28% and Tory voters back Remain 46% to 43%. UKIP voters back Leave 93% to 5%, LDs Remain 58% to 22%, Green voters Remain 71% to 25% and SNP voters Remain 47% to 39%. It looks on that basis that the key swing voters are Tory and SNP voters!
Undecided but more likely to vote REMAIN than LEAVE 22%
Undecided but more likely to vote LEAVE than REMAIN 23%
Lean more towards the UK LEAVING the EU 4%
So that's 39% of Undecideds moving to Remain and 27% towards Leave
And now give us the figures before tbe weighting adustments (you know, tbe ones that had leave eight points ahead)
Youve lost and you know it.
Don't talk dribble.
But I do love the complacency of Leavers.
How is the canvassing going?
Good, I think more people are getting engaged with it.
I think it backs up the polling, Brexit is seen as a risk/bad for the economy.
A majority of people won't vote for that.
Is like the 2015 GE polling, neck and neck but the supplementaries showed Ed Miliband/Labour would be bad for the economy and personally for the voters.
Hmmm
personally I've been surprised at people I thought were definite remainers saying they'll vote Leave and vice versa. In the discussions Ive been involved in the two sides just speak another language. Remain is all about money and Leave is about a wide range of issues and the two sides struggle to find any common ground.
I canvassed the granddaughter of West Indian immigrants in a very working class part of Sheffield she said
'I'm tempted to vote Leave, there's far too many Roma layabouts and Europeans taking jobs from us Brits in Sheffield. But if they get rid of them, then Farage will start blaming me for the all problems in the country, so I'm voting Remain, plus its bad for the economy leaving'
I see the European teams are doing well in the football. Wonder what this does for the Euref?
I would go so far as to say a European team could win it....
I tell you if Remain can use these horrible images from Marseille being stoked by Brexit insular nationalism then this could provide the pivotal moment.
If I was Brexit I wouldn't like my cause to be chanted by these mindless hooligans. But there again, at Brexit's heart lies a dark racism so I doubt very much that they can disassociate themselves from it.
You're right Tyson. We are the British version of the Sturmabteilung. Boris Johnson will deliver a speech at Wembley finishing with "Now People rise up, and let the Storm break loose!"
And then, we'll be coming for you.
You know those situations when you think you're being funny but when you look back on it you realise it actually comes across as a bit psychotic?...
Undecided but more likely to vote REMAIN than LEAVE 22%
Undecided but more likely to vote LEAVE than REMAIN 23%
Lean more towards the UK LEAVING the EU 4%
So that's 39% of Undecideds moving to Remain and 27% towards Leave
And now give us the figures before tbe weighting adustments (you know, tbe ones that had leave eight points ahead)
Youve lost and you know it.
Don't talk dribble.
But I do love the complacency of Leavers.
How is the canvassing going?
Good, I think more people are getting engaged with it.
I think it backs up the polling, Brexit is seen as a risk/bad for the economy.
A majority of people won't vote for that.
Is like the 2015 GE polling, neck and neck but the supplementaries showed Ed Miliband/Labour would be bad for the economy and personally for the voters.
Hmmm
personally I've been surprised at people I thought were definite remainers saying they'll vote Leave and vice versa. In the discussions Ive been involved in the two sides just speak another language. Remain is all about money and Leave is about a wide range of issues and the two sides struggle to find any common ground.
I canvassed the granddaughter of West Indian immigrants in a very working class part of Sheffield she said
'I'm tempted to vote Leave, there's far too many Roma layabouts and Europeans taking jobs from us Brits in Sheffield. But if they get rid of them, then Farage will start blaming me for the all problems in the country, so I'm voting Remain, plus its bad for the economy leaving'
It always makes me wonder how the home grown gypsies react to the latest influx of Roma, I can see that being a bit of a bear pit,
Thanks. Interestingly both of those people are in the EEA+EFTA camp.
Also interesting because, so far, that dog hasn't barked. For leave to get to 50%, they seem to need both "move to EEA/EFTA" and "completely out, make free-standing agreements" to support an out vote. I can see why the leave campaign has left this vague- lots of EEA proponents would prefer EU to complete out, and lots of complete-outers won't bother voting for EEA. But someone (not sure who) is stringing someone (not sure who) along. If a clear "you've said what you don't want... what do you want?" narrative springs to life, then things get interesting...
"UK oil and gas production generated negative receipts in 2015-16 of -£24m, compared with +£2.15bn the year before. Petroleum Revenue Tax (PRT) revenue was -£562m, following refunds to companies, while corporation tax revenue fell by 74% over the year to £538m."
What does this do to the prospects of the SNP pushing for SindyRef2 if Brexit wins?
They point out Osborne farked the North Sea tax regime, first with his ludicrous and heavily criticised tax raid and then with his panicked overly generous tax breaks a few years later.
According to Opinium Labour voters back Remain 63% to 28% and Tory voters back Remain 46% to 43%. UKIP voters back Leave 93% to 5%, LDs Remain 58% to 22%, Green voters Remain 71% to 25% and SNP voters Remain 47% to 39%. It looks on that basis that the key swing voters are Tory and SNP voters!
It took me several moths to get an event organised...
Ah, Sir Moth Wrangler! At last we meet on the field of battle! But can you defeat my RED ADMIRAL? Ah, the atalanta, surely the most savage of butterflies...
Undecided but more likely to vote REMAIN than LEAVE 22%
Undecided but more likely to vote LEAVE than REMAIN 23%
Lean more towards the UK LEAVING the EU 4%
So that's 39% of Undecideds moving to Remain and 27% towards Leave
And now give us the figures before tbe weighting adustments (you know, tbe ones that had leave eight points ahead)
Youve lost and you know it.
Don't talk dribble.
But I do love the complacency of Leavers.
How is the canvassing going?
Good, I think more people are getting engaged with it.
I think it backs up the polling, Brexit is seen as a risk/bad for the economy.
A majority of people won't vote for that.
Is like the 2015 GE polling, neck and neck but the supplementaries showed Ed Miliband/Labour would be bad for the economy and personally for the voters.
Interesting, thanks.
Yes that is my big fear.
As an aside, it's not a line we're pushing, but we're finding quite a number of people thinking Brexit = Forced Deportations. Probably about 65% opposed, 35% in favour of such a policy.
Delivering today. I rather liked our leaflet. It was styled to look like a government information pamphlet giving the facts, which is what people have been asking for. Clever, although too thin to easily push through letter boxes, especially if you hear a dog on the inside.
Hand on heart I have never been part of a better organised or more cheerful campaign. Sorry that hass not been evergones experience. Our town has had two Leave leaflets hand delivered to every single road with canvassing being undertaken by many of the local Councillors (Cons).
Lady Emily would have hated delivering my patch (middle class owner occupiers detached and semis) lots of st Georges flags.
The football patriotism and royal celebrations certainly arent doing Leave any harm and the flags are cheerful and help feed a positive patriotic mood.
Petersfield got mentioned as somewhere Remain were putting in an effort. I have strong links with the town and know it well. Leave will take it with a very healthy majority.
Apparently I do need to keep reminding people that this isn't an election, so Leave won't be running the country if they win.
Quite. Not only are we taking a risk if we vote Leave, we are entrusting the management of the departure to...we have *no idea* whom.
It's a concern. I, personally, think we are going to get badly treated in any departure - a natural reaction which will be popular too I imagine - and we would struggle to mitigate that whoever leads the negotiation, and its part of the risk and price that may be worth paying. But I would not blame other people for thinking a) the people managing the departure are not one's we would like or b) the risk of damage is too high.
I happen to think Cameron and co are not especially competent but are ok, pretty much the same thinking I had with Ed M, and I worry that the alternatives may not be an improvement and may even be worse. Hopefully not.
Undecided but more likely to vote REMAIN than LEAVE 22%
Undecided but more likely to vote LEAVE than REMAIN 23%
Lean more towards the UK LEAVING the EU 4%
So that's 39% of Undecideds moving to Remain and 27% towards Leave
And now give us the figures before tbe weighting adustments (you know, tbe ones that had leave eight points ahead)
Youve lost and you know it.
Don't talk dribble.
But I do love the complacency of Leavers.
How is the canvassing going?
Good, I think more people are getting engaged with it.
I think it backs up the polling, Brexit is seen as a risk/bad for the economy.
A majority of people won't vote for that.
Is like the 2015 GE polling, neck and neck but the supplementaries showed Ed Miliband/Labour would be bad for the economy and personally for the voters.
Yes obviously economy is the most important thing. Although it should be noted plenty of people voted UKIP and Labour at the last election, unlikely economy is the most important thing for these people.
It isn't that straightforward, though, is it? My top priorities at the GE were largely economic ones; in the referendum they are not economic.
This is a much more fundamental issue. I want the UK to be governed by the UK parliament, and for the UK parliament not to be over-ruled by others.
Delivering today. I rather liked our leaflet. It was styled to look like a government information pamphlet giving the facts, which is what people have been asking for. Clever, although too thin to easily push through letter boxes, especially if you hear a dog on the inside.
Hand on heart I have never been part of a better organised or more cheerful campaign. Sorry that hass not been evergones experience. Our town has had two Leave leaflets hand delivered to every single road with canvassing being undertaken by many of the local Councillors (Cons).
Lady Emily would have hated delivering my patch (middle class owner occupiers detached and semis) lots of st Georges flags.
The football patriotism and royal celebrations certainly arent doing Leave any harm and the flags are cheerful and help feed a positive patriotic mood.
Petersfield got mentioned as somewhere Remain were putting in an effort. I have strong links with the town and know it well. Leave will take it with a very healthy majority.
That was me. I think I just happen to live in an area where Leave isn't particularly well organised.
That said, St. George's and Union Flags are all over the place here, and I saw two (new) Vote Leave posters on the bypass today.
According to Opinium Labour voters back Remain 63% to 28% and Tory voters back Remain 46% to 43%. UKIP voters back Leave 93% to 5%, LDs Remain 58% to 22%, Green voters Remain 71% to 25% and SNP voters Remain 47% to 39%. It looks on that basis that the key swing voters are Tory and SNP voters!
Undecided but more likely to vote REMAIN than LEAVE 22%
Undecided but more likely to vote LEAVE than REMAIN 23%
Lean more towards the UK LEAVING the EU 4%
So that's 39% of Undecideds moving to Remain and 27% towards Leave
And now give us the figures before tbe weighting adustments (you know, tbe ones that had leave eight points ahead)
Youve lost and you know it.
Don't talk dribble.
But I do love the complacency of Leavers.
How is the canvassing going?
Good, I think more people are getting engaged with it.
I think it backs up the polling, Brexit is seen as a risk/bad for the economy.
A majority of people won't vote for that.
Is like the 2015 GE polling, neck and neck but the supplementaries showed Ed Miliband/Labour would be bad for the economy and personally for the voters.
Interesting, thanks.
Yes that is my big fear.
As an aside, it's not a line we're pushing, but we're finding quite a number of people thinking Brexit = Forced Deportations. Probably about 65% opposed, 35% in favour of such a policy.
I see the European teams are doing well in the football. Wonder what this does for the Euref?
I would go so far as to say a European team could win it....
I tell you if Remain can use these horrible images from Marseille being stoked by Brexit insular nationalism then this could provide the pivotal moment.
If I was Brexit I wouldn't like my cause to be chanted by these mindless hooligans. But there again, at Brexit's heart lies a dark racism so I doubt very much that they can disassociate themselves from it.
You're right Tyson. We are the British version of the Sturmabteilung. Boris Johnson will deliver a speech at Wembley finishing with "Now People rise up, and let the Storm break loose!"
And then, we'll be coming for you.
You know those situations when you think you're being funny but when you look back on it you realise it actually comes across as a bit psychotic?...
Don't be too hard on yourself, not all your posts are like that.
I see the European teams are doing well in the football. Wonder what this does for the Euref?
I would go so far as to say a European team could win it....
I tell you if Remain can use these horrible images from Marseille being stoked by Brexit insular nationalism then this could provide the pivotal moment.
If I was Brexit I wouldn't like my cause to be chanted by these mindless hooligans. But there again, at Brexit's heart lies a dark racism so I doubt very much that they can disassociate themselves from it.
You're right Tyson. We are the British version of the Sturmabteilung. Boris Johnson will deliver a speech at Wembley finishing with "Now People rise up, and let the Storm break loose!"
And then, we'll be coming for you.
You know those situations when you think you're being funny but when you look back on it you realise it actually comes across as a bit psychotic?...
I enjoy answering paranoia with absurd hyperbole.
Vladimir: That passed the time. Estragon: It would have passed in any case. Vladimir: Yes, but not so rapidly.
According to Opinium Labour voters back Remain 63% to 28% and Tory voters back Remain 46% to 43%. UKIP voters back Leave 93% to 5%, LDs Remain 58% to 22%, Green voters Remain 71% to 25% and SNP voters Remain 47% to 39%. It looks on that basis that the key swing voters are Tory and SNP voters!
According to Opinium Labour voters back Remain 63% to 28% and Tory voters back Remain 46% to 43%. UKIP voters back Leave 93% to 5%, LDs Remain 58% to 22%, Green voters Remain 71% to 25% and SNP voters Remain 47% to 39%. It looks on that basis that the key swing voters are Tory and SNP voters!
Apparently I do need to keep reminding people that this isn't an election, so Leave won't be running the country if they win.
Quite. Not only are we taking a risk if we vote Leave, we are entrusting the management of the departure to...we have *no idea* whom.
I'm sure people will find that reassuring.
That is what is bound to happen, Nick, when none of the mainstream political parties are interested in the concerns of significant numbers of the people they so-say represent.
I see the European teams are doing well in the football. Wonder what this does for the Euref?
I would go so far as to say a European team could win it....
I tell you if Remain can use these horrible images from Marseille being stoked by Brexit insular nationalism then this could provide the pivotal moment.
If I was Brexit I wouldn't like my cause to be chanted by these mindless hooligans. But there again, at Brexit's heart lies a dark racism so I doubt very much that they can disassociate themselves from it.
You're right Tyson. We are the British version of the Sturmabteilung. Boris Johnson will deliver a speech at Wembley finishing with "Now People rise up, and let the Storm break loose!"
And then, we'll be coming for you.
You know those situations when you think you're being funny but when you look back on it you realise it actually comes across as a bit psychotic?...
Don't be too hard on yourself, not all your posts are like that.
I think the traditional response to that rejoinder is "...and so's your mum!". Ah, primary school banter,...
Any news of PtP for that matter .... another PB.com stalwart of10 years + standing, who appears to have disappeared ..... out of character and worrying.
Emailed last week. Busy elsewhere. At his country estate for the summer.
Comments
I think it backs up the polling, Brexit is seen as a risk/bad for the economy.
A majority of people won't vote for that.
Is like the 2015 GE polling, neck and neck but the supplementaries showed Ed Miliband/Labour would be bad for the economy and personally for the voters.
I still think Remain are better organised with the better groundgame.
And under no circumstances will I underestimate the ability of the powers-that-be to coordinate and choreograph effective messages over the next 12 days.
"UK oil and gas production generated negative receipts in 2015-16 of -£24m, compared with +£2.15bn the year before. Petroleum Revenue Tax (PRT) revenue was -£562m, following refunds to companies, while corporation tax revenue fell by 74% over the year to £538m."
What does this do to the prospects of the SNP pushing for SindyRef2 if Brexit wins?
Nigel Farage will never run a government department.
When is the next phone poll, by the way?
I speak as someone who delivered 2,000 leaflets in his own area for not dissimilar reasons.
My best advice would be to hook up with a friend or pb'er who knows what's going on, and is well-tapped in to a campaign local to you.
The raw, unweighted figures break 40% Remain, 46% Leave. Weighting changes a 6% Leave lead into a 2% Remain lead. Significant weighting includes: UKIP voters reduced by 23%, 18-34s increased by 58%, C2DEs increased by 28%. Reweighting on this scale is never a good sign, and always makes me wonder whether the reweighting scheme itself might be exaggerating shifts from the raw results.
There appears to be no turnout filter. Yet only 59% of 18-34s declare themselves 10/10 certain to vote, compared to 88% of 65+. On 10/10 certainty to vote only, Leave have a lead of 48% to 44%. So turnout changes a 2% Remain lead to a 4% Leave lead.
Remain can take some encouragement that the headline results do not include responses to the "Nudge" question, where Remain has a slight lead which would add 1.5% to Remain's margin if they all voted. But only 43% of the DKs declare themselves 10/10 certain to vote, so the effect is going to be much more marginal.
.
personally I've been surprised at people I thought were definite remainers saying they'll vote Leave and vice versa. In the discussions Ive been involved in the two sides just speak another language. Remain is all about money and Leave is about a wide range of issues and the two sides struggle to find any common ground.
https://twitter.com/frankwordsuk/status/741600654796427264
Besides which, we should avoid the myth making of GE2015. The polls were out but only by 3-4% either way - e.g. 34/34 turned into 30-37.
They are also stretched very thin, as you can imagine. It took me several moths to get an event organised - I was finally so sick of it I had to hand it over to my team to do (they are much better at corralling people than me).
Don't let the frustration change your vote
https://twitter.com/itvnews/status/741694094066483201
Though to be fair those uniforms designed by Hugo Boss do look a little... well...
Also incessant use of inverted commas. Of course it was a glitch
I'm sure people will find that reassuring.
'I'm tempted to vote Leave, there's far too many Roma layabouts and Europeans taking jobs from us Brits in Sheffield. But if they get rid of them, then Farage will start blaming me for the all problems in the country, so I'm voting Remain, plus its bad for the economy leaving'
But my house is nicer than his shop
Yes that is my big fear.
http://ourinsight.opinium.co.uk/sites/ourinsight.opinium.co.uk/files/vi_07_06_16.pdf
I am greatly assured by the prospect of them being at the top of Government, and I think they'd form a fantastic Brexit team.
(*hyperbolic perhaps, but no more so than "risk". Yaaawwwwnn.. no serious risk.)
You can talk about police provocation, or other fans causing trouble, but it only seems to happen where the English go.
Hand on heart I have never been part of a better organised or more cheerful campaign. Sorry that hass not been evergones experience. Our town has had two Leave leaflets hand delivered to every single road with canvassing being undertaken by many of the local Councillors (Cons).
Lady Emily would have hated delivering my patch (middle class owner occupiers detached and semis) lots of st Georges flags.
The football patriotism and royal celebrations certainly arent doing Leave any harm and the flags are cheerful and help feed a positive patriotic mood.
Petersfield got mentioned as somewhere Remain were putting in an effort. I have strong links with the town and know it well. Leave will take it with a very healthy majority.
I happen to think Cameron and co are not especially competent but are ok, pretty much the same thinking I had with Ed M, and I worry that the alternatives may not be an improvement and may even be worse. Hopefully not.
This is a much more fundamental issue. I want the UK to be governed by the UK parliament, and for the UK parliament not to be over-ruled by others.
That said, St. George's and Union Flags are all over the place here, and I saw two (new) Vote Leave posters on the bypass today.
Estragon: It would have passed in any case.
Vladimir: Yes, but not so rapidly.
(Waiting for Godot, Sam Beckett (no, not that one), 1952)
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/741715414439317505
Be thankful it isn't worse. As yet, anyway.
Remain need to be more positive - no sign of Dave's sunkissed uplands.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3636164/Revenge-betrayed-Abandoned-metropolitan-political-elite-lives-utterly-changed-mass-migration-Labour-s-northern-heartlands-swing-Brexit.html?
Not saying you should bank on it, but interesting how Brexit many parts seem to be.
5 million European jobs depend on trading with Britain
Dont risk it Herr Schaeuble