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Are they voting too?welshowl said:
I asked about the Channel Islands and IoM earlier. Nobody replied.....DavidL said:Has anybody worked out why Gibraltar have been given the vote in this referendum yet? Just because they are a part of one of our European Parliamentary seats it is not obvious why they should get a say on what the UK should do as a sovereign nation. If it gets really close this is going to look even odder.
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I spoke too soon!dugarbandier said:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jun/08/austrias-far-right-freedom-party-challenges-presidential-election-reultsSandyRentool said:
Austria seems to have accepted their knife edge result without any faff. The key question is whether any irregularity would be sufficient to alter the result. You probably need to have a sub 50,000 margin before anyone would get too agitated.Sandpit said:
If it's 51-49 in either direction, it's going to be the UK version of the 2000 US Presidential Election.FrancisUrquhart said:If it does end up really close all this stuff about eu citizens wrongly getting polling cards & extended time to register is going to earn lawyers a lot of money.
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Gorra love the police
An 11-year-old disabled girl who was restrained by police with handcuffs, legstraps and a hood endured "a nightmare", her mother has said.
The child was held alone in police custody for a total of 60 hours without an appropriate adult after being arrested three times and detained under the Mental Health Act once between February and March 2012.
Sussex police restrained her using a mesh "spit hood", handcuffs and leg straps but failed to record why they had used force, according to the police watchdog, the Independent Police Complaints Commission (IPCC).
http://news.sky.com/story/1708908/disabled-girl-handcuffed-and-hooded-by-police0 -
Its ok hunchman. The site is still running. I think we've got away with it.hunchman said:
STFU!!FrancisUrquhart said:
I hear the operation was run out of some offices in finchley road...TGOHF said:It was MI7 crashing the website to give more remainers time to register.
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Think it would need to be closer than that realistically. I haven't fully thought it through yet, but I suspect the passing of emergency legislation (by our sovereign Parliament, ho-ho) to extend the deadline to midnight tomorrow will snuff out any route to a legal challenge. (I would ho-ho even louder if Remain won and Leave had to rely on some form of fundamental rights basis of challenge under the ECHR or some aspect of EU law!)TheWhiteRabbit said:
Only if it's 50.1% v 49.9% close.FrancisUrquhart said:If it does end up really close all this stuff about eu citizens wrongly getting polling cards & extended time to register is going to earn lawyers a lot of money.
Unilateral extension outside the terms of the legislation would almost certainly be ripe for challenge, very much so. But I'd think the challenger would need to show clear evidence that the result would have been (not just may have been) different but for (whatever the issue complained of is).
The "polling cards to those not entitled" seems the more ripe basis for challenge in my mind, if the result comes down to the tens of thousands in vote totals either way - but will it really be THAT close?0 -
Despite the ignorant public, mendacious campaigns, biased reporting, special pleading and lobbying, and absurd fearmongering, the British public - as with many other national electorates - has a remarkably good record of somehow producing outcomes that not only work but are often quite precisely what best fits the bill at the time.DavidL said:
The riptide of madness let loose by this referendum is, well, unfortunate. Sometimes I wonder if asking the people is overrated.NickPalmer said:Out of the blue, had a long-standing correspondent for Broxtowe send me an email saying that I and everyone else supporting Remain were TRAITORS.
I've asked him if it's not a bit worrying to think that roughly half the population seem to be traitors, did he think that a few might be non-traitors with a different opinion?
No reply so far!0 -
Perhaps the people trying to register to vote had your crap knowledge on when elections take place, and only found out the right date at the last moment.VapidBilge said:Hold on a sec.
Didn't we just have some elections in April?
Why the complete lack of concern by all parties (voters included) on registration then?0 -
Dunno that's my question. Having just checked there's 250K total population between them (175k electors??), which dwarfs Gibraltar, but I've not heard they are voting.DavidL said:
Are they voting too?welshowl said:
I asked about the Channel Islands and IoM earlier. Nobody replied.....DavidL said:Has anybody worked out why Gibraltar have been given the vote in this referendum yet? Just because they are a part of one of our European Parliamentary seats it is not obvious why they should get a say on what the UK should do as a sovereign nation. If it gets really close this is going to look even odder.
If not why exactly is Gibraltar? Is it because it's in the S West EU MEP region?0 -
Even though I am for Brexit, I think the case for giving the Rock the vote is overwhelming.DavidL said:Has anybody worked out why Gibraltar have been given the vote in this referendum yet? Just because they are a part of one of our European Parliamentary seats it is not obvious why they should get a say on what the UK should do as a sovereign nation. If it gets really close this is going to look even odder.
First, this is a foreign policy issue which directly affect them and the UK runs their foreign policy. We are not giving them a separate vote as to whether Gibraltar should Leave or Remain in the case of Brexit, so we must give them a say in the decision. Anything else would be completely undemocratic towards them.
Second, for Gibraltar, this is potentially an existential issue - there is a very clear possibility in the medium- to long-term that it will cease to exist as an entity distinct from Spain if the UK goes for Brexit.
Admittedly, this is a 150k tipping of the scales in favour of Bremain, but how can we not give them the same say in their future that we Brexiters are demanding for ourselves?0 -
We don't need to listen to no stinkin' experts.MarkHopkins said:
I believe that's what the Lord High Chancellor said.0 -
Sorry, just saw that headline seconds before I saw your post!SandyRentool said:
I spoke too soon!dugarbandier said:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jun/08/austrias-far-right-freedom-party-challenges-presidential-election-reultsSandyRentool said:
Austria seems to have accepted their knife edge result without any faff. The key question is whether any irregularity would be sufficient to alter the result. You probably need to have a sub 50,000 margin before anyone would get too agitated.Sandpit said:
If it's 51-49 in either direction, it's going to be the UK version of the 2000 US Presidential Election.FrancisUrquhart said:If it does end up really close all this stuff about eu citizens wrongly getting polling cards & extended time to register is going to earn lawyers a lot of money.
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There's only 32K of them in total including children and non voters.MTimT said:
Even though I am for Brexit, I think the case for giving the Rock the vote is overwhelming.DavidL said:Has anybody worked out why Gibraltar have been given the vote in this referendum yet? Just because they are a part of one of our European Parliamentary seats it is not obvious why they should get a say on what the UK should do as a sovereign nation. If it gets really close this is going to look even odder.
First, this is a foreign policy issue which directly affect them and the UK runs their foreign policy. We are not giving them a separate vote as to whether Gibraltar should Leave or Remain in the case of Brexit, so we must give them a say in the decision. Anything else would be completely undemocratic towards them.
Second, for Gibraltar, this is potentially an existential issue - there is a very clear possibility in the medium- to long-term that it will cease to exist as an entity distinct from Spain if the UK goes for Brexit.
Admittedly, this is a 150k tipping of the scales in favour of Bremain, but how can we not give them the same say in their future that we Brexiters are demanding for ourselves?0 -
Whatever happened to Runnymede? Haven't seen them post in weeks now.0
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I just replied. I think the same arguments apply to the Channel Islands and IoM.welshowl said:
I asked about the Channel Islands and IoM earlier. Nobody replied.....DavidL said:Has anybody worked out why Gibraltar have been given the vote in this referendum yet? Just because they are a part of one of our European Parliamentary seats it is not obvious why they should get a say on what the UK should do as a sovereign nation. If it gets really close this is going to look even odder.
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That's quite significant IMHO.MarkHopkins said:0 -
Why are Remainers afraid of following the rules ?TheScreamingEagles said:
Why are Leavers afraid of democracy?MarkHopkins said:If anyone wants to know why Cameron wants to break the rules for the election, and extend the registration period it is this:-
"Around 132,000 of the people who registered on Tuesday were aged under 25, compared to around 13,000 from the 65 to 74-year-old age group."0 -
Yes I'd agree all round, but I don't know whether the various islands get to vote.MTimT said:
I just replied. I think the same arguments apply to the Channel Islands and IoM.welshowl said:
I asked about the Channel Islands and IoM earlier. Nobody replied.....DavidL said:Has anybody worked out why Gibraltar have been given the vote in this referendum yet? Just because they are a part of one of our European Parliamentary seats it is not obvious why they should get a say on what the UK should do as a sovereign nation. If it gets really close this is going to look even odder.
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bloody hell. I do love some police (esp. family members of mine) but wtf? thank goodness we don't routinely arm them...TheScreamingEagles said:Gorra love the police
An 11-year-old disabled girl who was restrained by police with handcuffs, legstraps and a hood endured "a nightmare", her mother has said.
The child was held alone in police custody for a total of 60 hours without an appropriate adult after being arrested three times and detained under the Mental Health Act once between February and March 2012.
Sussex police restrained her using a mesh "spit hood", handcuffs and leg straps but failed to record why they had used force, according to the police watchdog, the Independent Police Complaints Commission (IPCC).
http://news.sky.com/story/1708908/disabled-girl-handcuffed-and-hooded-by-police0 -
We can conclude from the last minute extension of the voting registration deadline, as well as other moves this week from Remain and the PM, that the Remain camp are concerned this vote is going to be extremely close.
Bet accordingly.0 -
That is very very surprising.MarkHopkins said:0 -
It directly affects the whole of the EU. Are we going to give them all the vote?MTimT said:
Even though I am for Brexit, I think the case for giving the Rock the vote is overwhelming.DavidL said:Has anybody worked out why Gibraltar have been given the vote in this referendum yet? Just because they are a part of one of our European Parliamentary seats it is not obvious why they should get a say on what the UK should do as a sovereign nation. If it gets really close this is going to look even odder.
First, this is a foreign policy issue which directly affect them and the UK runs their foreign policy. We are not giving them a separate vote as to whether Gibraltar should Leave or Remain in the case of Brexit, so we must give them a say in the decision. Anything else would be completely undemocratic towards them.
Second, for Gibraltar, this is potentially an existential issue - there is a very clear possibility in the medium- to long-term that it will cease to exist as an entity distinct from Spain if the UK goes for Brexit.
Admittedly, this is a 150k tipping of the scales in favour of Bremain, but how can we not give them the same say in their future that we Brexiters are demanding for ourselves?
I seriously question if they would be getting a vote if they were 95% leave.0 -
I'm assuming sales of tinfoil are at an all time high
@JGForsyth: Senior figures on Leave side think someone deliberately crashed electoral registration site. Say traffic level at 10.15pm implausibly high0 -
That seems a fair assumption.Casino_Royale said:We can conclude from the last minute extension of the voting registration deadline, as well as other moves this week from Remain and the PM, that the Remain camp are concerned this vote is going to be extremely close.
Bet accordingly.0 -
Blimey, Sharapova gets a two year ban0
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Well, OF COURSE the renegotiation wasn't enough!MarkHopkins said:0 -
Insulting the British may go down well with some people who would rather be part of the Soviet Union but Mr and Mrs Nuneaton-Thurrock-Sunderland will remember what their ancestors endured before them.Scott_P said:@cicorre64: Dear Mr Cameron, I attach a photograph of 'Little Englanders..' Last night you insulted a nation. Resign. https://t.co/N4msMrIKYv
Whoever thinks this is smart for Cameron has completely lost the plot.
Whoever is telling him that the 'patriotic' thing to do is vote Remain is deluded.
He is drifting towards the Cenotaph in a donkey jacket whilst refusing to sing the national anthem.0 -
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Gibraltar is in the EU, but Man, Guernsey and Jersey are NOT.welshowl said:
Dunno that's my question. Having just checked there's 250K total population between them (175k electors??), which dwarfs Gibraltar, but I've not heard they are voting.DavidL said:
Are they voting too?welshowl said:
I asked about the Channel Islands and IoM earlier. Nobody replied.....DavidL said:Has anybody worked out why Gibraltar have been given the vote in this referendum yet? Just because they are a part of one of our European Parliamentary seats it is not obvious why they should get a say on what the UK should do as a sovereign nation. If it gets really close this is going to look even odder.
If not why exactly is Gibraltar? Is it because it's in the S West EU MEP region?0 -
bloody hell. expect putin to invade somewhere soon..TheScreamingEagles said:Blimey, Sharapova gets a two year ban
(is Russia going to get to go to the olympics?)0 -
I don't think it's unfair for Gib to get the vote, although I think that in that case, the Isle of Man and Channel Islands should get the vote as well.DavidL said:
It directly affects the whole of the EU. Are we going to give them all the vote?MTimT said:
Even though I am for Brexit, I think the case for giving the Rock the vote is overwhelming.DavidL said:Has anybody worked out why Gibraltar have been given the vote in this referendum yet? Just because they are a part of one of our European Parliamentary seats it is not obvious why they should get a say on what the UK should do as a sovereign nation. If it gets really close this is going to look even odder.
First, this is a foreign policy issue which directly affect them and the UK runs their foreign policy. We are not giving them a separate vote as to whether Gibraltar should Leave or Remain in the case of Brexit, so we must give them a say in the decision. Anything else would be completely undemocratic towards them.
Second, for Gibraltar, this is potentially an existential issue - there is a very clear possibility in the medium- to long-term that it will cease to exist as an entity distinct from Spain if the UK goes for Brexit.
Admittedly, this is a 150k tipping of the scales in favour of Bremain, but how can we not give them the same say in their future that we Brexiters are demanding for ourselves?
I seriously question if they would be getting a vote if they were 95% leave.0 -
Seems harsh.TheScreamingEagles said:Blimey, Sharapova gets a two year ban
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Gibraltar is in the EU, but Man, Guernsey and Jersey are NOT in the EU.Sean_F said:
I don't think it's unfair for Gib to get the vote, although I think that in that case, the Isle of Man and Channel Islands should get the vote as well.DavidL said:
It directly affects the whole of the EU. Are we going to give them all the vote?MTimT said:
Even though I am for Brexit, I think the case for giving the Rock the vote is overwhelming.DavidL said:Has anybody worked out why Gibraltar have been given the vote in this referendum yet? Just because they are a part of one of our European Parliamentary seats it is not obvious why they should get a say on what the UK should do as a sovereign nation. If it gets really close this is going to look even odder.
First, this is a foreign policy issue which directly affect them and the UK runs their foreign policy. We are not giving them a separate vote as to whether Gibraltar should Leave or Remain in the case of Brexit, so we must give them a say in the decision. Anything else would be completely undemocratic towards them.
Second, for Gibraltar, this is potentially an existential issue - there is a very clear possibility in the medium- to long-term that it will cease to exist as an entity distinct from Spain if the UK goes for Brexit.
Admittedly, this is a 150k tipping of the scales in favour of Bremain, but how can we not give them the same say in their future that we Brexiters are demanding for ourselves?
I seriously question if they would be getting a vote if they were 95% leave.0 -
The obvious thing to do is to laugh at Remain, point out to anyone who's missed it that they will do anything to twist the vote their way, remind them of the £10m spent on the government leaflet and invite people to reflect how you much you can trust them.TheScreamingEagles said:I'm assuming sales of tinfoil are at an all time high
@JGForsyth: Senior figures on Leave side think someone deliberately crashed electoral registration site. Say traffic level at 10.15pm implausibly high
And then move on. This is trivial.0 -
Yes but if this is really close (and I hope to God it's not) we're in hanging chad territory or one side not accepting the vote and we really are off to the races.TheScreamingEagles said:I'm assuming sales of tinfoil are at an all time high
@JGForsyth: Senior figures on Leave side think someone deliberately crashed electoral registration site. Say traffic level at 10.15pm implausibly high
In reality it would have to be bonkers close for any of this to matter and given the pollsters recent record in "the big one" of being unable to hit a cow's arse with banjo at point blank range we may still be in 55/45 territory come 8.00 on the 24th and all this is totally academic. If we are not and we are waiting for the south district of Gibraltar to wake up and start counting at breakfast time this could be simply huge.0 -
Gibraltar is in the EU, but Man, Guernsey and Jersey are NOT in the EU.MTimT said:
I just replied. I think the same arguments apply to the Channel Islands and IoM.welshowl said:
I asked about the Channel Islands and IoM earlier. Nobody replied.....DavidL said:Has anybody worked out why Gibraltar have been given the vote in this referendum yet? Just because they are a part of one of our European Parliamentary seats it is not obvious why they should get a say on what the UK should do as a sovereign nation. If it gets really close this is going to look even odder.
Seems that isn't a very well known factoid.0 -
Was it from a Mr S. Thomas, London NW1?NickPalmer said:Out of the blue, had a long-standing correspondent for Broxtowe send me an email saying that I and everyone else supporting Remain were TRAITORS.
I've asked him if it's not a bit worrying to think that roughly half the population seem to be traitors, did he think that a few might be non-traitors with a different opinion?
No reply so far!0 -
No side that expected to win comfortably would have had supporters discussing ways in which Parliament could ignore the result.Casino_Royale said:We can conclude from the last minute extension of the voting registration deadline, as well as other moves this week from Remain and the PM, that the Remain camp are concerned this vote is going to be extremely close.
Bet accordingly.
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REMAIN very, very desperate and clinging to anything that will save their skins (and jobs)Casino_Royale said:We can conclude from the last minute extension of the voting registration deadline, as well as other moves this week from Remain and the PM, that the Remain camp are concerned this vote is going to be extremely close.
Bet accordingly.0 -
And so Serena Williams faces even less competition than ever.0
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Didn't someone earlier claim 1% of the UK's electorate trying to log in at the same time was suspicious? I am about to drive home so cannot double check the figures.TheScreamingEagles said:I'm assuming sales of tinfoil are at an all time high
@JGForsyth: Senior figures on Leave side think someone deliberately crashed electoral registration site. Say traffic level at 10.15pm implausibly high0 -
Sorry. Just catching up with the thread. Miles behind. I see that gag has been done by everyone.0
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I think extending was the right thing to do. But it will be interesting to see how many people register in the next 48 hours compared with those who were unable to register in the two hours between 10 and midnight last night. I think Cameron has done what he does so often and seized his opportunity with both hands.Bob__Sykes said:
Think it would need to be closer than that realistically. I haven't fully thought it through yet, but I suspect the passing of emergency legislation (by our sovereign Parliament, ho-ho) to extend the deadline to midnight tomorrow will snuff out any route to a legal challenge. (I would ho-ho even louder if Remain won and Leave had to rely on some form of fundamental rights basis of challenge under the ECHR or some aspect of EU law!)TheWhiteRabbit said:
Only if it's 50.1% v 49.9% close.FrancisUrquhart said:If it does end up really close all this stuff about eu citizens wrongly getting polling cards & extended time to register is going to earn lawyers a lot of money.
Unilateral extension outside the terms of the legislation would almost certainly be ripe for challenge, very much so. But I'd think the challenger would need to show clear evidence that the result would have been (not just may have been) different but for (whatever the issue complained of is).
The "polling cards to those not entitled" seems the more ripe basis for challenge in my mind, if the result comes down to the tens of thousands in vote totals either way - but will it really be THAT close?0 -
Presumably all those who tried to get on at 10.15 last night and couldnt' will try today/ tomorrow.
What happens if there are far fewer than expected ........0 -
O/T An update on the Construction Industry in Southern Hampshire:
It is unreal, far too much work around for the labour available, prices and wages are pushing up all the time. We are turning down work all the time. Our turnover has gone from £4million to £10 million in 4 years and our staff levels have doubled.
Why do we want to risk this booming economy?0 -
not harsh. surprising that they have actually applied the rules, howeverSean_F said:
Seems harsh.TheScreamingEagles said:Blimey, Sharapova gets a two year ban
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Because we cannot keep building and building to house the unemployed of Europe?currystar said:O/T An update on the Construction Industry in Southern Hampshire:
It is unreal, far too much work around for the labour available, prices and wages are pushing up all the time. We are turning down work all the time. Our turnover has gone from £4million to £10 million in 4 years and our staff levels have doubled.
Why do we want to risk this booming economy?0 -
Very interesting piece by Andy White formerly of ComRes
Brussels, immigrants, sovereignty has not been a winning trifecta at any previous British election.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/08/trust-opinion-polls-eu-referendum-2015-general-election-pollsters0 -
So Jeremy Corbyn is going to answer live audience questions on TV three days before the referendum.
That's one way to ensure a Leave vote.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/jeremy-corbyn-to-make-live-televised-eu-referendum-intervention-three-days-before-polling-day-a7070921.html0 -
My gut tells me they might.SeanT said:
All the signs tell me that REMAIN now believe they are going to lose.Casino_Royale said:We can conclude from the last minute extension of the voting registration deadline, as well as other moves this week from Remain and the PM, that the Remain camp are concerned this vote is going to be extremely close.
Bet accordingly.
What if those worried about economic fallout but also very concerned by ongoing high migration just can't bring themselves to turnout and actively cast that vote for Remain to endorse it, whilst the Leavers are more fired up than Mount Vesuvius ?
My head tells me the turnout to some extent will be self-correcting and that the UK (incl. NI and Gibraltar) will conspire to deliver a result of 51% or 52% to Remain.
But I could be wrong and there could be something more visceral going on here.
Dunno.0 -
According to YouGov, he is more of a vote-winner on the EU than Cameron is.RoyalBlue said:So Jeremy Corbyn is going to answer live audience questions on TV three days before the referendum.
That's one way to ensure a Leave vote.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/jeremy-corbyn-to-make-live-televised-eu-referendum-intervention-three-days-before-polling-day-a7070921.html0 -
Nah - she's a propah cheat.Sean_F said:
Seems harsh.TheScreamingEagles said:Blimey, Sharapova gets a two year ban
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The Noise Abatement Society will be pleased.TheScreamingEagles said:Blimey, Sharapova gets a two year ban
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As opposed to the glitter of rabid paranoia in the eyes of many Leavers this afternoon?SeanT said:
All the signs tell me that REMAIN now believe they are going to lose.Casino_Royale said:We can conclude from the last minute extension of the voting registration deadline, as well as other moves this week from Remain and the PM, that the Remain camp are concerned this vote is going to be extremely close.
Bet accordingly.
I don't think they will lose, but they have the look of defeat in their sunken eyes.0 -
Hah, I remember that.SandyRentool said:
The Noise Abatement Society will be pleased.TheScreamingEagles said:Blimey, Sharapova gets a two year ban
I was staying in a hotel a few years ago watching one of her matches, I had ordered room service, there was a knock on the door, it was the waitress with my food.
Had to tell her I wasn't watching lesbian porn but Wimbledon0 -
Is he going to say why he thinks the forced privatisation of utility and public transport companies across the EU is a good thing?Danny565 said:
According to YouGov, he is more of a vote-winner on the EU than Cameron is.RoyalBlue said:So Jeremy Corbyn is going to answer live audience questions on TV three days before the referendum.
That's one way to ensure a Leave vote.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/jeremy-corbyn-to-make-live-televised-eu-referendum-intervention-three-days-before-polling-day-a7070921.html0 -
Not paranoid...midwinter said:As opposed to the glitter of rabid paranoia in the eyes of many Leavers this afternoon?
@henrymance: Leave.EU is considering legal action over extension of registration deadline. Source says gov has unfairly focused on younger voters.0 -
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/739207060286504960midwinter said:
As opposed to the glitter of rabid paranoia in the eyes of many Leavers this afternoon?SeanT said:
All the signs tell me that REMAIN now believe they are going to lose.Casino_Royale said:We can conclude from the last minute extension of the voting registration deadline, as well as other moves this week from Remain and the PM, that the Remain camp are concerned this vote is going to be extremely close.
Bet accordingly.
I don't think they will lose, but they have the look of defeat in their sunken eyes.0 -
Still, the Leavers have some way to go to match this...
@BBCPhilipSim: John Mason is making Named Persons arguments based on the Bible. Many examples of families going wrong, like Cain killing Abel, he says.0 -
@IanDunt: Great look for people supposedly motivated by concerns about democracy. https://t.co/bMeho2Jl0t0
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Although of course, this *isn't* an election.TheScreamingEagles said:Very interesting piece by Andy White formerly of ComRes
Brussels, immigrants, sovereignty has not been a winning trifecta at any previous British election.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/08/trust-opinion-polls-eu-referendum-2015-general-election-pollsters0 -
@robfordmancs: Nothing demonstrates a commitment to popular sovereignty like suing to disenfranchise people https://t.co/YZ35BxRw7n0
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AlsoTheScreamingEagles said:Very interesting piece by Andy White formerly of ComRes
Brussels, immigrants, sovereignty has not been a winning trifecta at any previous British election.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/08/trust-opinion-polls-eu-referendum-2015-general-election-pollsters
"In fact, a large chunk of leave’s support base is those groups who are historically least likely to vote: the less affluent, the less educated, and the less politically engaged."0 -
It's not a normal election. pollsters don't have a clue (admitted in the article itself, but not the bit you quote)TheScreamingEagles said:Very interesting piece by Andy White formerly of ComRes
Brussels, immigrants, sovereignty has not been a winning trifecta at any previous British election.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/08/trust-opinion-polls-eu-referendum-2015-general-election-pollsters0 -
LOL...glad to see the tennis authorities haven't taken the BS.SandyRentool said:
The Noise Abatement Society will be pleased.TheScreamingEagles said:Blimey, Sharapova gets a two year ban
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Should make my day at Centre Court next month more bearableFrancisUrquhart said:
LOL...glad to see the tennis authorities haven't taken the BS.SandyRentool said:
The Noise Abatement Society will be pleased.TheScreamingEagles said:Blimey, Sharapova gets a two year ban
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This is not an election. It is a Referendum. It is a one-off chance to knee the Establishment in the groin without having five years of Buyers Remorse.TheScreamingEagles said:Very interesting piece by Andy White formerly of ComRes
Brussels, immigrants, sovereignty has not been a winning trifecta at any previous British election.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/08/trust-opinion-polls-eu-referendum-2015-general-election-pollsters
Have you not understood that yet?0 -
Just goes to show that TSE is the Baldrick of PB.comMarqueeMark said:
This is not an election. It is a Referendum. It is a one-off chance to knee the Establishment in the groin without having five years of Buyers Remorse.TheScreamingEagles said:Very interesting piece by Andy White formerly of ComRes
Brussels, immigrants, sovereignty has not been a winning trifecta at any previous British election.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/08/trust-opinion-polls-eu-referendum-2015-general-election-pollsters
Have you not understood that yet?
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Yes, the remorse lasts FOREVER !MarqueeMark said:It is a one-off chance to knee the Establishment in the groin without having five years of Buyers Remorse.
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Naught but REMAIN scaremongering!Scott_P said:
Yes, the remorse lasts FOREVER !MarqueeMark said:It is a one-off chance to knee the Establishment in the groin without having five years of Buyers Remorse.
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No, they think they *might* lose. If they were fully expecting to lose then they'd be seeking to position themselves in such a way as to be able to nimbly accommodate the new reality. They'd be toning down the rhetoric and scare-stories, and looking to set the agenda about what Brexit means in practical terms.SeanT said:
All the signs tell me that REMAIN now believe they are going to lose.Casino_Royale said:We can conclude from the last minute extension of the voting registration deadline, as well as other moves this week from Remain and the PM, that the Remain camp are concerned this vote is going to be extremely close.
Bet accordingly.
I don't think they will lose, but they have the look of defeat in their sunken eyes.0 -
I have, I wrote a few threads on it, earlier on this year.MarqueeMark said:
This is not an election. It is a Referendum. It is a one-off chance to knee the Establishment in the groin without having five years of Buyers Remorse.TheScreamingEagles said:Very interesting piece by Andy White formerly of ComRes
Brussels, immigrants, sovereignty has not been a winning trifecta at any previous British election.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/08/trust-opinion-polls-eu-referendum-2015-general-election-pollsters
Have you not understood that yet?
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/02/21/meet-the-man-who-could-win-the-referendum-for-leave/
Sadly that piece cost me the chance to become George Osborne's Chief of Staff when he becomes PM.0 -
Interesting and not something I've ever really thought about, but as with the CI and IoM, the likes of the Vatican and San Marino, Monaco and Andorra are not in the EU; if those microstates are OK outside the EU then presumably Gibraltar would be - granted France, Italy, Spain as applicable presumably friendlier to them than Spain is to Gibraltar/UK.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Gibraltar is in the EU, but Man, Guernsey and Jersey are NOT in the EU.MTimT said:
I just replied. I think the same arguments apply to the Channel Islands and IoM.welshowl said:
I asked about the Channel Islands and IoM earlier. Nobody replied.....DavidL said:Has anybody worked out why Gibraltar have been given the vote in this referendum yet? Just because they are a part of one of our European Parliamentary seats it is not obvious why they should get a say on what the UK should do as a sovereign nation. If it gets really close this is going to look even odder.
Seems that isn't a very well known factoid.
Also interesting, from a quick bit of googling, that San Marino had an EU referendum in 2013 I didn't know about - the result was 50.3% Yes and 49.7% No (failed to pass on low turnout). Wonder if ours will be that close too....?
Link I found, an interesting little read:
http://www.europeanpublicaffairs.eu/san-marino-thanks-but-no-thanks-eu-accession/
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Remorse - of being free of Juncker and Delors types ? Lolza.Scott_P said:
Yes, the remorse lasts FOREVER !MarqueeMark said:It is a one-off chance to knee the Establishment in the groin without having five years of Buyers Remorse.
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And where was the Social Work Department when that happened you have to ask? An inquiry is clearly called for, lessons need to be learned before we move on, etc.Scott_P said:Still, the Leavers have some way to go to match this...
@BBCPhilipSim: John Mason is making Named Persons arguments based on the Bible. Many examples of families going wrong, like Cain killing Abel, he says.0 -
failed to mention the age distribution tho, so it looks like spinlogical_song said:
AlsoTheScreamingEagles said:Very interesting piece by Andy White formerly of ComRes
Brussels, immigrants, sovereignty has not been a winning trifecta at any previous British election.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/08/trust-opinion-polls-eu-referendum-2015-general-election-pollsters
"In fact, a large chunk of leave’s support base is those groups who are historically least likely to vote: the less affluent, the less educated, and the less politically engaged."0 -
Article in the Guardian on voters in Sunderland - Kevin is voting to leave - "Someone needs to buy Kevin a pint and explain the facts of economic and political life to him". I would pay money to watch.0
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Mr. T., there was that feeling on here the morning after Cameron's first TV interview. I commented on at it the time. The stuffing seemed to have gone from the supporters of remain on this site. I didn't understand it then and I am not sure I do now, but I note several prominent remainers on here have since seemingly given up.SeanT said:
All the signs tell me that REMAIN now believe they are going to lose.Casino_Royale said:We can conclude from the last minute extension of the voting registration deadline, as well as other moves this week from Remain and the PM, that the Remain camp are concerned this vote is going to be extremely close.
Bet accordingly.
I don't think they will lose, but they have the look of defeat in their sunken eyes.
If this site is in anyway reflective of the wider electorate, even at second or third order of differential then maybe, just maybe there might be cautious grounds for some optimism that Leave can actually win.
Either way, I suspect that we are in for a period of great political turmoil, and the smug elites will not hold such sway again.0 -
Very good....but seriously some of this lunacy is very off putting to people who might be minded to vote Leave. Really some of you are like Death Eaters accusing anyone from Remain of being or consorting with mud bloods. (Obviously Dave is Dumbledore).Sunil_Prasannan said:
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/739207060286504960midwinter said:
As opposed to the glitter of rabid paranoia in the eyes of many Leavers this afternoon?SeanT said:
All the signs tell me that REMAIN now believe they are going to lose.Casino_Royale said:We can conclude from the last minute extension of the voting registration deadline, as well as other moves this week from Remain and the PM, that the Remain camp are concerned this vote is going to be extremely close.
Bet accordingly.
I don't think they will lose, but they have the look of defeat in their sunken eyes.0 -
Some of Lord Haywards research is dicussed here;
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/08/europhiles-beware-the-voters-youre-relying-on-are-drifting-towar/
Seems opinion polls are over-stating REMAIN!Lord Hayward said:
"City professionals are not alone, as Lord Hayward has found that "motorway man", Britain's married middle-managers in their mid-30s, is defying Europhile expectations. These people are the essence of middle England and vote regularly, but are hard for pollsters to contact as they spend their life driving around the country due to their work. Labour wooed "Mondeo Man" (as they were known then) in 1997, and the Tories fought to win them back in order to get back into Government. Britain's motorway men were expected by Lord Hayward to prefer "heavily"to stay in the EU, but they split evenly between both options, suggesting Brexit is far more popular in middle England than Remainers would expect."
AndLord Hayward said:
"Brexiteers will also want to thank Jeremy Corbyn for his lacklustre campaigning as Lord Hayward has found that Labour supporters have not been motivated to vote to stay in the EU. The Labour leader insists his party is "overwhelmingly for staying in", but this message doesn't seem to have trickled down to members, as many Labour blue-collar workers in the Midlands and North - which have been targeted by Ukip over recent years - are set to vote to Leave. He also found that female voters are not as inclined to vote Remain as much as polls say."0 -
The other gem to emerge so far from the debateDavidL said:And where was the Social Work Department when that happened you have to ask? An inquiry is clearly called for, lessons need to be learned before we move on, etc.
Teachers are expected to be Named Persons for school pupils.
What happens during the holidays?
Ummmm.....0 -
"We just don't know" as Patrick Moore used to say on Sky at Night.Casino_Royale said:
My gut tells me they might.SeanT said:
All the signs tell me that REMAIN now believe they are going to lose.Casino_Royale said:We can conclude from the last minute extension of the voting registration deadline, as well as other moves this week from Remain and the PM, that the Remain camp are concerned this vote is going to be extremely close.
Bet accordingly.
What if those worried about economic fallout but also very concerned by ongoing high migration just can't bring themselves to turnout and actively cast that vote for Remain to endorse it, whilst the Leavers are more fired up than Mount Vesuvius ?
My head tells me the turnout to some extent will be self-correcting and that the UK (incl. NI and Gibraltar) will conspire to deliver a result of 51% or 52% to Remain.
But I could be wrong and there could be something more visceral going on here.
Dunno.
Perhaps the answer's in the stars.0 -
Interesting San Marino result - 43% was deemed too low a turnout!Bob__Sykes said:
Interesting and not something I've ever really thought about, but as with the CI and IoM, the likes of the Vatican and San Marino, Monaco and Andorra are not in the EU; if those microstates are OK outside the EU then presumably Gibraltar would be - granted France, Italy, Spain as applicable presumably friendlier to them than Spain is to Gibraltar/UK.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Gibraltar is in the EU, but Man, Guernsey and Jersey are NOT in the EU.MTimT said:
I just replied. I think the same arguments apply to the Channel Islands and IoM.welshowl said:
I asked about the Channel Islands and IoM earlier. Nobody replied.....DavidL said:Has anybody worked out why Gibraltar have been given the vote in this referendum yet? Just because they are a part of one of our European Parliamentary seats it is not obvious why they should get a say on what the UK should do as a sovereign nation. If it gets really close this is going to look even odder.
Seems that isn't a very well known factoid.
Also interesting, from a quick bit of googling, that San Marino had an EU referendum in 2013 I didn't know about - the result was 50.3% Yes and 49.7% No (failed to pass on low turnout). Wonder if ours will be that close too....?
Link I found, an interesting little read:
http://www.europeanpublicaffairs.eu/san-marino-thanks-but-no-thanks-eu-accession/
Although the result needed 32% of the ELECTORATE to pass. So 50% of 43% was only 21.5% of the electorate.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sammarinese_referendum,_2013
Hopefully our EUref turnout and "% of electorate winning" will be much higher!0 -
There is nothing new in that. Most of it is confirmation bias.TheScreamingEagles said:Very interesting piece by Andy White formerly of ComRes
Brussels, immigrants, sovereignty has not been a winning trifecta at any previous British election.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/08/trust-opinion-polls-eu-referendum-2015-general-election-pollsters0 -
Or private schools which are not parts of the State and therefore don't qualify? How will my son cope?Scott_P said:
The other gem to emerge so far from the debateDavidL said:And where was the Social Work Department when that happened you have to ask? An inquiry is clearly called for, lessons need to be learned before we move on, etc.
Teachers are expected to be Named Persons for school pupils.
What happens during the holidays?
Ummmm.....0 -
it really isn't tho, is it?HurstLlama said:
If this site is in anyway reflective of the wider electorate, even at second or third order of differential .
still, it does seem close at the moment0 -
I suppose it's a career option for her while she's serving her ban ...TheScreamingEagles said:
Hah, I remember that.SandyRentool said:
The Noise Abatement Society will be pleased.TheScreamingEagles said:Blimey, Sharapova gets a two year ban
I was staying in a hotel a few years ago watching one of her matches, I had ordered room service, there was a knock on the door, it was the waitress with my food.
Had to tell her I wasn't watching lesbian porn but Wimbledon0 -
Housing is just a small part of the work around at the momentDavidL said:
Because we cannot keep building and building to house the unemployed of Europe?currystar said:O/T An update on the Construction Industry in Southern Hampshire:
It is unreal, far too much work around for the labour available, prices and wages are pushing up all the time. We are turning down work all the time. Our turnover has gone from £4million to £10 million in 4 years and our staff levels have doubled.
Why do we want to risk this booming economy?0 -
(1) Talk of ignoring the resultSean_F said:
No side that expected to win comfortably would have had supporters discussing ways in which Parliament could ignore the result.Casino_Royale said:We can conclude from the last minute extension of the voting registration deadline, as well as other moves this week from Remain and the PM, that the Remain camp are concerned this vote is going to be extremely close.
Bet accordingly.
(2) Total saturation of Canary Wharf yesterday with adverts to vote Remain
(3) Cameron pushing a Little England, Greater Britain line
(4) Last minute press conference by PM
(5) Pushing out voter registration deadline0 -
Given how many people failed to register until the last minute, polling stations must be prepared for a sudden rush at 9.55pm on June 23rd or perhaps 11.55pm by people who don't pay attention or even on June 24th.0
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And then consider that "Remain" doesnt actually do anything without the blessing of the Prime Minister and First Lord of the Treasury, who is behaving like a two-bit hustler, he's a disgrace to the country.DavidL said:
The obvious thing to do is to laugh at Remain, point out to anyone who's missed it that they will do anything to twist the vote their way, remind them of the £10m spent on the government leaflet and invite people to reflect how you much you can trust them.TheScreamingEagles said:I'm assuming sales of tinfoil are at an all time high
@JGForsyth: Senior figures on Leave side think someone deliberately crashed electoral registration site. Say traffic level at 10.15pm implausibly high
And then move on. This is trivial.0 -
... and the more pissed off - see Trump, Donald.logical_song said:
AlsoTheScreamingEagles said:Very interesting piece by Andy White formerly of ComRes
Brussels, immigrants, sovereignty has not been a winning trifecta at any previous British election.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/08/trust-opinion-polls-eu-referendum-2015-general-election-pollsters
"In fact, a large chunk of leave’s support base is those groups who are historically least likely to vote: the less affluent, the less educated, and the less politically engaged."0 -
So if Remain win by 10-20 points, which nefarious skulduggery will have done it?Casino_Royale said:
No side that expected to win comfortably would have had supporters discussing ways in which Parliament could ignore the result.
(1) Talk of ignoring the result
(2) Total saturation of Canary Wharf yesterday with adverts to vote Remain
(3) Cameron pushing a Little England, Greater Britain line
(4) Last minute press conference by PM
(5) Pushing out voter registration deadline0 -
SPIN turnout market has now moved 2 points since AM suggested a buy...0
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No-one knows.David_Evershed said:
"We just don't know" as Patrick Moore used to say on Sky at Night.Casino_Royale said:
My gut tells me they might.SeanT said:
All the signs tell me that REMAIN now believe they are going to lose.Casino_Royale said:We can conclude from the last minute extension of the voting registration deadline, as well as other moves this week from Remain and the PM, that the Remain camp are concerned this vote is going to be extremely close.
Bet accordingly.
What if those worried about economic fallout but also very concerned by ongoing high migration just can't bring themselves to turnout and actively cast that vote for Remain to endorse it, whilst the Leavers are more fired up than Mount Vesuvius ?
My head tells me the turnout to some extent will be self-correcting and that the UK (incl. NI and Gibraltar) will conspire to deliver a result of 51% or 52% to Remain.
But I could be wrong and there could be something more visceral going on here.
Dunno.
Perhaps the answer's in the stars.
But even I have been surprised at how impervious the British public have been to fear (with continued convergence to Leave in the polls) and I never thought Cameron's ratings could sink this low.
Remain massively overplayed their hand. That much is certain.0 -
Funny. There were elections all over the UK in April. What exactly is wrong with using that roll?Scott_P said:
Not paranoid...midwinter said:As opposed to the glitter of rabid paranoia in the eyes of many Leavers this afternoon?
@henrymance: Leave.EU is considering legal action over extension of registration deadline. Source says gov has unfairly focused on younger voters.0 -
Dave might extending voting by another hour of course... well, unless it looked like the youngsters had voted and most of those left were the oldies, then he might suddenly be in the bathroom for an hour at the time the critical decision was needed.David_Evershed said:Given how many people failed to register until the last minute, polling stations must be prepared for a sudden rush at 9.55pm on June 23rd or perhaps 11.55pm by people who don't pay attention or even on June 24th.
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Yeah well people need more than a house. They need a place to work, shops, schools, hospitals etc. The growth is focused in the south like Hampshire because that is where immigration is strongest. It drives growth undoubtedly but at what price?currystar said:
Housing is just a small part of the work around at the momentDavidL said:
Because we cannot keep building and building to house the unemployed of Europe?currystar said:O/T An update on the Construction Industry in Southern Hampshire:
It is unreal, far too much work around for the labour available, prices and wages are pushing up all the time. We are turning down work all the time. Our turnover has gone from £4million to £10 million in 4 years and our staff levels have doubled.
Why do we want to risk this booming economy?0 -
For starters they weren't everywhere. We only had the police elections where I live.VapidBilge said:
Funny. There were elections all over the UK in April. What exactly is wrong with using that roll?Scott_P said:
Not paranoid...midwinter said:As opposed to the glitter of rabid paranoia in the eyes of many Leavers this afternoon?
@henrymance: Leave.EU is considering legal action over extension of registration deadline. Source says gov has unfairly focused on younger voters.0 -
Gibraltar also has a different constitutional relationship with the UK, than Isle of Man and the Channel Islands.
Gibraltar is an Overseas Territory (along with your Falklands, Diego Garcia, Bermuda et al.)
Man, Guernsey and Jersey are Crown Dependencies.0
