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Comments
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I think the EC's suggested 80% turnout for the referendum is overestimated. if you start with 66% turnout at the last election, you're gonna get to the majority, but not all, of those people casting a vote (certain loyal Labour and tribal Tory types may just not give a damn about the EU either way). on the other hand, you're going to see certain people (who live in safe seats, or who have a none-of-the-above attitude) voting in this referendum. You're going to see EU turnout at about 68% I reckon.
Anecdotally, in my own family, amongst the 2015 GE non-voters, 3 are not voting in the referendum as they just don't care, 2 are going for remain because 'why take the risk', and 1 is going for leave because immigration. Wouldn't be surprised to see those figures replicated across the 2015 GE non-voters overall.0 -
Given the "decideds" showed a massive skew to Farage (80/20 IIRC), I am not sure we can learn much from "undecideds".MarkHopkins said:0 -
Who goes into betting shops these days with that amount of cash? Haven't they heard of the internet?MarkHopkins said:0 -
"The Cameroons: a Warning from History"TheScreamingEagles said:
Maybe. But I'm expecting a Thousand Year Cameroon Reich after a strong Remain victory.Alanbrooke said:
If we get to 80% turnout you wont be seeing a Conservative government for quite some time.TheScreamingEagles said:
Indeed. I'd rather lose this referendum on an 80% turnout than win it on a 40% turnout.AlastairMeeks said:I see this is not the thread when pbers across the political spectrum are agonising about poor levels of voter engagement.
narrated by Sam West
Episode 1:
"2010 - Helped into Power"0 -
But if they were basing their expected level on the EU interest level registered in polls, they'd be expecting many times less than the GEs.not_on_fire said:
Agreed, when you stress test you don't test your max expected level of usage, you test 5x that amount just in caseSandpit said:
Bollocks. As an IT guy they screwed up, should have known it was coming and planned accordingly. No sympathy for the EC, I want to see their CIO or IT Dir before a select ctte.TheScreamingEagles said:
They stress tested it to GE levels of registration and beyond, but it was several times that levelsMarkHopkins said:chestnut said:
They have applied to register, haven't they?MarkHopkins said:If anyone wants to know why Cameron wants to break the rules for the election, and extend the registration period it is this:-
"Around 132,000 of the people who registered on Tuesday were aged under 25, compared to around 13,000 from the 65 to 74-year-old age group."
Last year, it turned out that only 30% actually made it through out of 5m applicants.
I don't understand why the service crashed at all.
A well built system on a scalable cloud infrastructure should have handled the surge without problems.
They KNOW they will get these surges, yet were still not ready for it?0 -
Except that now it is a matter of individual registration, so it is bound to be a bit different.TheScreamingEagles said:
They stress tested it to GE levels of registration and beyond, but it was several times that levelsMarkHopkins said:
I don't understand why the service crashed at all. A well built system on a scalable cloud infrastructure should have handled the surge without problems. They KNOW they will get these surges, yet were still not ready for it?
Sometimes one gets the impression that this Conservative Government has no idea what it is doing. I suppose that the person responsible for this fiasco (presumably Mark Hancock) will tender his resignation.0 -
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Is a voodoo poll.MarkHopkins said:
The Times point it was a self selecting panel, of which 80% backed Brexit before the debate.
They also said the undecided sample wasn't representative or scientific.0 -
Ladbrokes internet betting limit normally around £2,500 or so.FrancisUrquhart said:
Who goes into betting shops these days with that amount of cash? Haven't they heard of the internet?MarkHopkins said:0 -
They're not entirely unrelated. All sorts of events - mostly those that drive isolationism - would increase the chances of both.Pulpstar said:
You can with unrelated markets at Ladbrokes. @Shadsy is offering 11.05 on a Trump/Brexit double.tlg86 said:
Bookies should offer accumulators on these things.Pulpstar said:
Brexit = 3.75Sandpit said:
Anna, neither are close to evens.Anna said:Assuming Brexit and a Trump presidency aren't correlated - the markets seem to be suggesting it's about evens for one or other or both events to occur. Interesting times!
Brexit is around 11/4 (nearly 3/1) and Trump is 10/3 (3.3/1) to be next President.
Trump = 4.3 ;
Implied:
¬ Brexit = 1.3636..
¬ Trump = 1.3030..
Brexit + Trump = 16.125
Brexit + ¬ Trump = 4.886
¬ Brexit + Trump = 5.8636
¬ Brexit + ¬ Trump = 1.7768
Neither has to be close to Evens for one or the other (Or both) to occur, SQRT(2) ( 1.414) would do it.
The implied probability of either Trump, Brexit or both right now is 43.7%.0 -
I think you are misreading the graph. The red are leavers who liked Farage and disliked Cameron. The Blue are remainers who liked Cameron and disliked Farage. The green are undecided.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Given the "decideds" showed a massive skew to Farage (80/20 IIRC), I am not sure we can learn much from "undecideds".MarkHopkins said:0 -
The Mail is talking bollocks on the EU and immigration, say it ain't so
An article of 3 April ('Report shows the NHS is nearly at breaking point as massive influx of EU migrants forces doctors to take on 1.5million extra patients in just three years') stated that the surge in GP registrations was caused directly by EU migration.
We are happy to make clear that - while leave EU campaigners blamed the rise in registrations on rising EU migration - the Health & Social Care Information Centre does not provide a breakdown of patients by GP per nationality, and that increasing life expectancy and migration from outside the EU are factors in the rise.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/article-3630502/Clarifications-corrections.html0 -
And a 1000 year Patel Maharani after a Leave victory.TheScreamingEagles said:
Maybe. But I'm expecting a Thousand Year Cameroon Reich after a strong Remain victory.Alanbrooke said:
If we get to 80% turnout you wont be seeing a Conservative government for quite some time.TheScreamingEagles said:
Indeed. I'd rather lose this referendum on an 80% turnout than win it on a 40% turnout.AlastairMeeks said:I see this is not the thread when pbers across the political spectrum are agonising about poor levels of voter engagement.
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TheScreamingEagles said:
Is a voodoo poll.MarkHopkins said:
The Times point it was a self selecting panel, of which 80% backed Brexit before the debate.
They also said the undecided sample wasn't representative or scientific.
The voters in the referendum will be a self-selecting panel...
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True, but I doubt that is sufficient to overcome the double over-round.david_herdson said:
They're not entirely unrelated. All sorts of events - mostly those that drive isolationism - would increase the chances of both.Pulpstar said:
You can with unrelated markets at Ladbrokes. @Shadsy is offering 11.05 on a Trump/Brexit double.tlg86 said:
Bookies should offer accumulators on these things.Pulpstar said:
Brexit = 3.75Sandpit said:
Anna, neither are close to evens.Anna said:Assuming Brexit and a Trump presidency aren't correlated - the markets seem to be suggesting it's about evens for one or other or both events to occur. Interesting times!
Brexit is around 11/4 (nearly 3/1) and Trump is 10/3 (3.3/1) to be next President.
Trump = 4.3 ;
Implied:
¬ Brexit = 1.3636..
¬ Trump = 1.3030..
Brexit + Trump = 16.125
Brexit + ¬ Trump = 4.886
¬ Brexit + Trump = 5.8636
¬ Brexit + ¬ Trump = 1.7768
Neither has to be close to Evens for one or the other (Or both) to occur, SQRT(2) ( 1.414) would do it.
The implied probability of either Trump, Brexit or both right now is 43.7%.0 -
We discussed the poll earlier, apparently the sample for the Red Box was heavily skewed pro-Brexit before hand.GarethoftheVale2 said:
I think you are misreading the graph. The red are leavers who liked Farage and disliked Cameron. The Blue are remainers who liked Cameron and disliked Farage. The green are undecided.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Given the "decideds" showed a massive skew to Farage (80/20 IIRC), I am not sure we can learn much from "undecideds".MarkHopkins said:
Whilst the undecideds self-identified as such, it is difficult to maintain a true group of swing voters at the best of times. There are far fewer swing voters than self-identified swing voters.
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#ComfortPollingMarkHopkins said:TheScreamingEagles said:
Is a voodoo poll.MarkHopkins said:
The Times point it was a self selecting panel, of which 80% backed Brexit before the debate.
They also said the undecided sample wasn't representative or scientific.
The voters in the referendum will be a self-selecting panel...0 -
I think that's a very fair solution, especially as the site was only down for two hours or so.MP_SE said:
Provide another 2 hours for voters to register. Anymore than that and it looks like gerrymandering.TheScreamingEagles said:
It's not a rule break, the website crashed, before the deadline, they are making sure people aren't disenfranchised.MarkHopkins said:TheScreamingEagles said:
Why are Leavers afraid of democracy?MarkHopkins said:If anyone wants to know why Cameron wants to break the rules for the election, and extend the registration period it is this:-
"Around 132,000 of the people who registered on Tuesday were aged under 25, compared to around 13,000 from the 65 to 74-year-old age group."
Why do Remainers want to break the rules when things aren't going their way?0 -
I still need to publish my hatchet job on Priti PatelHertsmere_Pubgoer said:
And a 1000 year Patel Maharani after a Leave victory.TheScreamingEagles said:
Maybe. But I'm expecting a Thousand Year Cameroon Reich after a strong Remain victory.Alanbrooke said:
If we get to 80% turnout you wont be seeing a Conservative government for quite some time.TheScreamingEagles said:
Indeed. I'd rather lose this referendum on an 80% turnout than win it on a 40% turnout.AlastairMeeks said:I see this is not the thread when pbers across the political spectrum are agonising about poor levels of voter engagement.
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OK. Fair enough. I didn't see that.TheWhiteRabbit said:
We discussed the poll earlier, apparently the sample for the Red Box was heavily skewed pro-Brexit before hand.GarethoftheVale2 said:
I think you are misreading the graph. The red are leavers who liked Farage and disliked Cameron. The Blue are remainers who liked Cameron and disliked Farage. The green are undecided.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Given the "decideds" showed a massive skew to Farage (80/20 IIRC), I am not sure we can learn much from "undecideds".MarkHopkins said:
Whilst the undecideds self-identified as such, it is difficult to maintain a true group of swing voters at the best of times. There are far fewer swing voters than self-identified swing voters.0 -
One wonders about money laundering checks on these kind of bets.FrancisUrquhart said:
Who goes into betting shops these days with that amount of cash? Haven't they heard of the internet?MarkHopkins said:0 -
not going to happen. Cameron specifically said those registering today and last nightrcs1000 said:
I think that's a very fair solution, especially as the site was only down for two hours or so.MP_SE said:
Provide another 2 hours for voters to register. Anymore than that and it looks like gerrymandering.TheScreamingEagles said:
It's not a rule break, the website crashed, before the deadline, they are making sure people aren't disenfranchised.MarkHopkins said:TheScreamingEagles said:
Why are Leavers afraid of democracy?MarkHopkins said:If anyone wants to know why Cameron wants to break the rules for the election, and extend the registration period it is this:-
"Around 132,000 of the people who registered on Tuesday were aged under 25, compared to around 13,000 from the 65 to 74-year-old age group."
Why do Remainers want to break the rules when things aren't going their way?0 -
I had a look at the double over-round on first goal scorer/correct result doubles at the bookies at Arsenal. Those bets are shockingly bad value.Pulpstar said:
True, but I doubt that is sufficient to overcome the double over-round.david_herdson said:
They're not entirely unrelated. All sorts of events - mostly those that drive isolationism - would increase the chances of both.Pulpstar said:
You can with unrelated markets at Ladbrokes. @Shadsy is offering 11.05 on a Trump/Brexit double.tlg86 said:
Bookies should offer accumulators on these things.Pulpstar said:
Brexit = 3.75Sandpit said:
Anna, neither are close to evens.Anna said:Assuming Brexit and a Trump presidency aren't correlated - the markets seem to be suggesting it's about evens for one or other or both events to occur. Interesting times!
Brexit is around 11/4 (nearly 3/1) and Trump is 10/3 (3.3/1) to be next President.
Trump = 4.3 ;
Implied:
¬ Brexit = 1.3636..
¬ Trump = 1.3030..
Brexit + Trump = 16.125
Brexit + ¬ Trump = 4.886
¬ Brexit + Trump = 5.8636
¬ Brexit + ¬ Trump = 1.7768
Neither has to be close to Evens for one or the other (Or both) to occur, SQRT(2) ( 1.414) would do it.
The implied probability of either Trump, Brexit or both right now is 43.7%.0 -
I look forward to it almost as much as the AV thread.TheScreamingEagles said:
I still need to publish my hatchet job on Priti PatelHertsmere_Pubgoer said:
And a 1000 year Patel Maharani after a Leave victory.TheScreamingEagles said:
Maybe. But I'm expecting a Thousand Year Cameroon Reich after a strong Remain victory.Alanbrooke said:
If we get to 80% turnout you wont be seeing a Conservative government for quite some time.TheScreamingEagles said:
Indeed. I'd rather lose this referendum on an 80% turnout than win it on a 40% turnout.AlastairMeeks said:I see this is not the thread when pbers across the political spectrum are agonising about poor levels of voter engagement.
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BAT Tobacco?TheScreamingEagles said:
I still need to publish my hatchet job on Priti PatelHertsmere_Pubgoer said:
And a 1000 year Patel Maharani after a Leave victory.TheScreamingEagles said:
Maybe. But I'm expecting a Thousand Year Cameroon Reich after a strong Remain victory.Alanbrooke said:
If we get to 80% turnout you wont be seeing a Conservative government for quite some time.TheScreamingEagles said:
Indeed. I'd rather lose this referendum on an 80% turnout than win it on a 40% turnout.AlastairMeeks said:I see this is not the thread when pbers across the political spectrum are agonising about poor levels of voter engagement.
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Well I'm writing a thread about David Cameron making some home made porn.SandyRentool said:
I look forward to it almost as much as the AV thread.TheScreamingEagles said:
I still need to publish my hatchet job on Priti PatelHertsmere_Pubgoer said:
And a 1000 year Patel Maharani after a Leave victory.TheScreamingEagles said:
Maybe. But I'm expecting a Thousand Year Cameroon Reich after a strong Remain victory.Alanbrooke said:
If we get to 80% turnout you wont be seeing a Conservative government for quite some time.TheScreamingEagles said:
Indeed. I'd rather lose this referendum on an 80% turnout than win it on a 40% turnout.AlastairMeeks said:I see this is not the thread when pbers across the political spectrum are agonising about poor levels of voter engagement.
That might top an AV thread for excitement.0 -
Sunil J. Prasannan is calling for a total and complete shutdown of AV threads entering PB.com, until our forum's representatives can figure out what the hell is going on!SandyRentool said:
I look forward to it almost as much as the AV thread.TheScreamingEagles said:
I still need to publish my hatchet job on Priti PatelHertsmere_Pubgoer said:
And a 1000 year Patel Maharani after a Leave victory.TheScreamingEagles said:
Maybe. But I'm expecting a Thousand Year Cameroon Reich after a strong Remain victory.Alanbrooke said:
If we get to 80% turnout you wont be seeing a Conservative government for quite some time.TheScreamingEagles said:
Indeed. I'd rather lose this referendum on an 80% turnout than win it on a 40% turnout.AlastairMeeks said:I see this is not the thread when pbers across the political spectrum are agonising about poor levels of voter engagement.
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@faisalislam: Significant new EU referendum TV event news coming up on Sky News in one minute...0
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And to think that less than 2 months ago you were undecided.TheScreamingEagles said:
I still need to publish my hatchet job on Priti PatelHertsmere_Pubgoer said:
And a 1000 year Patel Maharani after a Leave victory.TheScreamingEagles said:
Maybe. But I'm expecting a Thousand Year Cameroon Reich after a strong Remain victory.Alanbrooke said:
If we get to 80% turnout you wont be seeing a Conservative government for quite some time.TheScreamingEagles said:
Indeed. I'd rather lose this referendum on an 80% turnout than win it on a 40% turnout.AlastairMeeks said:I see this is not the thread when pbers across the political spectrum are agonising about poor levels of voter engagement.
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https://www.facebook.com/peoplesincampaign/videos/1053759234700690/
here ye go, loves.. (for balance and a' that)
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Corbyn live Q&A on Sky apparently0
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This is probably the first time I have agreed with Tony Blair on anything.GIN1138 said:tlg86 said:From the Guardian:
"Blair said that Twitter and social media had created “the era of the loudmouth” and that this made David Cameron’s job even harder than the job of prime minister was when he did it."
Blair also said that he expected turnout at the referendum would be "substantially higher" than the GE.
Good old Tony getting madder by the day...
Social media has been detrimental to politics IMO. Everything seems so short-term in politics these days. The minute they get any flak on twitter/facebook etc they do a "u-turn."
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This could go very badly wrong if it's really close. Lawyers licking lips.dr_spyn said:https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/740538328559280128
no details yet.0 -
I'm on the opposite side to you, but agree entirely. A turnout above GE level shows a mandate for the result, whichever way it goes.TheScreamingEagles said:
Indeed. I'd rather lose this referendum on an 80% turnout than win it on a 40% turnout.AlastairMeeks said:I see this is not the thread when pbers across the political spectrum are agonising about poor levels of voter engagement.
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I've been very impressed by Leavers like Andrea Leadsom and Chris Grayling who have acted honourably in this referendum.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
And to think that less than 2 months ago you were undecided.TheScreamingEagles said:
I still need to publish my hatchet job on Priti PatelHertsmere_Pubgoer said:
And a 1000 year Patel Maharani after a Leave victory.TheScreamingEagles said:
Maybe. But I'm expecting a Thousand Year Cameroon Reich after a strong Remain victory.Alanbrooke said:
If we get to 80% turnout you wont be seeing a Conservative government for quite some time.TheScreamingEagles said:
Indeed. I'd rather lose this referendum on an 80% turnout than win it on a 40% turnout.AlastairMeeks said:I see this is not the thread when pbers across the political spectrum are agonising about poor levels of voter engagement.
Priti Patel has been a complete numpty.
Plus her logic for supporting the death penalty has irked me for many years.0 -
piggin 'ellTheScreamingEagles said:
Well I'm writing a thread about David Cameron making some home made porn.SandyRentool said:
I look forward to it almost as much as the AV thread.TheScreamingEagles said:
I still need to publish my hatchet job on Priti PatelHertsmere_Pubgoer said:
And a 1000 year Patel Maharani after a Leave victory.TheScreamingEagles said:
Maybe. But I'm expecting a Thousand Year Cameroon Reich after a strong Remain victory.Alanbrooke said:
If we get to 80% turnout you wont be seeing a Conservative government for quite some time.TheScreamingEagles said:
Indeed. I'd rather lose this referendum on an 80% turnout than win it on a 40% turnout.AlastairMeeks said:I see this is not the thread when pbers across the political spectrum are agonising about poor levels of voter engagement.
That might top an AV thread for excitement.0 -
Chris Grayling has been much more measured than I expected.TheScreamingEagles said:
I've been very impressed by Leavers like Andrea Leadsom and Chris Grayling who have acted honourably in this referendum.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
And to think that less than 2 months ago you were undecided.TheScreamingEagles said:
I still need to publish my hatchet job on Priti PatelHertsmere_Pubgoer said:
And a 1000 year Patel Maharani after a Leave victory.TheScreamingEagles said:
Maybe. But I'm expecting a Thousand Year Cameroon Reich after a strong Remain victory.Alanbrooke said:
If we get to 80% turnout you wont be seeing a Conservative government for quite some time.TheScreamingEagles said:
Indeed. I'd rather lose this referendum on an 80% turnout than win it on a 40% turnout.AlastairMeeks said:I see this is not the thread when pbers across the political spectrum are agonising about poor levels of voter engagement.
Priti Patel has been a complete numpty.
Plus her logic for supporting the death penalty has irked me for many years.0 -
What is Tony's solution? To bomb Facebook and Twitter HQ?LadyBucket said:
This is probably the first time I have agreed with Tony Blair on anything.GIN1138 said:tlg86 said:From the Guardian:
"Blair said that Twitter and social media had created “the era of the loudmouth” and that this made David Cameron’s job even harder than the job of prime minister was when he did it."
Blair also said that he expected turnout at the referendum would be "substantially higher" than the GE.
Good old Tony getting madder by the day...
Social media has been detrimental to politics IMO. Everything seems so short-term in politics these days. The minute they get any flak on twitter/facebook etc they do a "u-turn."
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Out of the blue, had a long-standing correspondent for Broxtowe send me an email saying that I and everyone else supporting Remain were TRAITORS.
I've asked him if it's not a bit worrying to think that roughly half the population seem to be traitors, did he think that a few might be non-traitors with a different opinion?
No reply so far!0 -
... lawyers for whom!?welshowl said:
This could go very badly wrong if it's really close. Lawyers licking lips.dr_spyn said:https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/740538328559280128
no details yet.0 -
I never knew SeanT lived in Broxtowe.NickPalmer said:Out of the blue, had a long-standing correspondent for Broxtowe send me an email saying that I and everyone else supporting Remain were TRAITORS.
I've asked him if it's not a bit worrying to think that roughly half the population seem to be traitors, did he think that a few might be non-traitors with a different opinion?
No reply so far!0 -
SPIN markets back. Turnout up
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SeanT has a residence in Broxtowe?NickPalmer said:Out of the blue, had a long-standing correspondent for Broxtowe send me an email saying that I and everyone else supporting Remain were TRAITORS.
I've asked him if it's not a bit worrying to think that roughly half the population seem to be traitors, did he think that a few might be non-traitors with a different opinion?
No reply so far!
Who knew!
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Patel has gone out of her way to trash Cameron and the Government, Grayling has done the exact opposite.Pulpstar said:
Chris Grayling has been much more measured than I expected.TheScreamingEagles said:
I've been very impressed by Leavers like Andrea Leadsom and Chris Grayling who have acted honourably in this referendum.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
And to think that less than 2 months ago you were undecided.TheScreamingEagles said:
I still need to publish my hatchet job on Priti PatelHertsmere_Pubgoer said:
And a 1000 year Patel Maharani after a Leave victory.TheScreamingEagles said:
Maybe. But I'm expecting a Thousand Year Cameroon Reich after a strong Remain victory.Alanbrooke said:
If we get to 80% turnout you wont be seeing a Conservative government for quite some time.TheScreamingEagles said:
Indeed. I'd rather lose this referendum on an 80% turnout than win it on a 40% turnout.AlastairMeeks said:I see this is not the thread when pbers across the political spectrum are agonising about poor levels of voter engagement.
Priti Patel has been a complete numpty.
Plus her logic for supporting the death penalty has irked me for many years.
Ditto Liam Fox.
Sack Patel, and promote Grayling and Fox.0 -
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I am totally against extending the deadline for voter registration. The government must have spent millions on publicising getting registered and as usual the "lazy, couldn't be bothered, last minute brigade, are now being pandered to for purely political reasons. The Electoral Commission have questions to answer on how this wasn't planned for.
I think politics just stinks at the moment. There was no public trust before but now it must be zero.0 -
On the other hand, it has reduced the power of the mainstream media.LadyBucket said:
This is probably the first time I have agreed with Tony Blair on anything.GIN1138 said:tlg86 said:From the Guardian:
"Blair said that Twitter and social media had created “the era of the loudmouth” and that this made David Cameron’s job even harder than the job of prime minister was when he did it."
Blair also said that he expected turnout at the referendum would be "substantially higher" than the GE.
Good old Tony getting madder by the day...
Social media has been detrimental to politics IMO. Everything seems so short-term in politics these days. The minute they get any flak on twitter/facebook etc they do a "u-turn."
Fact is, in any democracy, there will always be some channels for popular opinion that make themselves felt on the government.0 -
New Forth Bridge delayed by 6 months
@BBCPhilipSim: Queenferry Crossing crews lost 13 days in April and 12 days in May because of strong winds. Mr Brown says delay is "very recent development"
@rougvie77: 25 days construction lost due to weather. Six months late on completion.
My maths is even worse than I thought.0 -
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Oh dear
@cicorre64: Dear Mr Cameron, I attach a photograph of 'Little Englanders..' Last night you insulted a nation. Resign. https://t.co/N4msMrIKYv
@Otto_English:
A: British war graves are slabs
B: French graves are crosses
C: Tricolour visible on the left
You're an idiot https://t.co/4n3lt1E0Tx 0 -
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At least it's not like that new Berlin airport. What was it, a week before opening it was put back by three years?!Scott_P said:New Forth Bridge delayed by 6 months
@BBCPhilipSim: Queenferry Crossing crews lost 13 days in April and 12 days in May because of strong winds. Mr Brown says delay is "very recent development"
@rougvie77: 25 days construction lost due to weather. Six months late on completion.
My maths is even worse than I thought.0 -
o/t v interesting wiki page on Dominic Chappell.
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Let's see if he can do better than with joey Essex...i am presuming the school kids will be more intelligent...more intelligent than corbyn that is!Scott_P said:Corbyn live Q&A on Sky apparently
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they could extend the franchise to 16yr olds too...LadyBucket said:I am totally against extending the deadline for voter registration. The government must have spent millions on publicising getting registered and as usual the "lazy, couldn't be bothered, last minute brigade, are now being pandered to for purely political reasons. The Electoral Commission have questions to answer on how this wasn't planned for.
I think politics just stinks at the moment. There was no public trust before but now it must be zero.
(did they do that in Scotland, or did I dream it?)0 -
Don't they have the death penalty in your religion?TheScreamingEagles said:
I've been very impressed by Leavers like Andrea Leadsom and Chris Grayling who have acted honourably in this referendum.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
And to think that less than 2 months ago you were undecided.TheScreamingEagles said:
I still need to publish my hatchet job on Priti PatelHertsmere_Pubgoer said:
And a 1000 year Patel Maharani after a Leave victory.TheScreamingEagles said:
Maybe. But I'm expecting a Thousand Year Cameroon Reich after a strong Remain victory.Alanbrooke said:
If we get to 80% turnout you wont be seeing a Conservative government for quite some time.TheScreamingEagles said:
Indeed. I'd rather lose this referendum on an 80% turnout than win it on a 40% turnout.AlastairMeeks said:I see this is not the thread when pbers across the political spectrum are agonising about poor levels of voter engagement.
Priti Patel has been a complete numpty.
Plus her logic for supporting the death penalty has irked me for many years.
*innocent face*0 -
Why were so many people waiting until 2 hrs before the deadline?0
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New deadline: midnight tomorrow night....0
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Same reason a lot of people wait until two minutes to ten to turn up at their Polling station...FrancisUrquhart said:Why were so many people waiting until 2 hrs before the deadline?
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IIRC, didn't Cameron pretty much say he would sack Patel after the referendum? She is merely getting her revenge in early. Of course, by September I only expect one of them to be in government - and it ain't Dave.TheScreamingEagles said:
Patel has gone out of her way to trash Cameron and the Government, Grayling has done the exact opposite.Pulpstar said:
Chris Grayling has been much more measured than I expected.TheScreamingEagles said:
I've been very impressed by Leavers like Andrea Leadsom and Chris Grayling who have acted honourably in this referendum.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
And to think that less than 2 months ago you were undecided.TheScreamingEagles said:
I still need to publish my hatchet job on Priti PatelHertsmere_Pubgoer said:
And a 1000 year Patel Maharani after a Leave victory.TheScreamingEagles said:
Maybe. But I'm expecting a Thousand Year Cameroon Reich after a strong Remain victory.Alanbrooke said:
If we get to 80% turnout you wont be seeing a Conservative government for quite some time.TheScreamingEagles said:
Indeed. I'd rather lose this referendum on an 80% turnout than win it on a 40% turnout.AlastairMeeks said:I see this is not the thread when pbers across the political spectrum are agonising about poor levels of voter engagement.
Priti Patel has been a complete numpty.
Plus her logic for supporting the death penalty has irked me for many years.
Ditto Liam Fox.
Sack Patel, and promote Grayling and Fox.0 -
Treating those "traitors" to capital punishment would be like solving over-population by putting boys down at birth as, I seem to remember, was suggested by the Grey Friars janitor/gardener in the Billy Bunter stories.NickPalmer said:Out of the blue, had a long-standing correspondent for Broxtowe send me an email saying that I and everyone else supporting Remain were TRAITORS.
I've asked him if it's not a bit worrying to think that roughly half the population seem to be traitors, did he think that a few might be non-traitors with a different opinion?
No reply so far!0 -
0
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To be fair I can imagine occurrences why you might not be able to get to a polling station until really late on ie work / delays on trains etc, but registering online to vote takes 2 minutes & can be done anytime, anywhere.GIN1138 said:
Same reason a lot of people wait until two minutes to ten to turn up at their Polling station...FrancisUrquhart said:Why were so many people waiting until 2 hrs before the deadline?
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I'm not religious.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Don't they have the death penalty in your religion?TheScreamingEagles said:
I've been very impressed by Leavers like Andrea Leadsom and Chris Grayling who have acted honourably in this referendum.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
And to think that less than 2 months ago you were undecided.TheScreamingEagles said:
I still need to publish my hatchet job on Priti PatelHertsmere_Pubgoer said:
And a 1000 year Patel Maharani after a Leave victory.TheScreamingEagles said:
Maybe. But I'm expecting a Thousand Year Cameroon Reich after a strong Remain victory.Alanbrooke said:
If we get to 80% turnout you wont be seeing a Conservative government for quite some time.TheScreamingEagles said:
Indeed. I'd rather lose this referendum on an 80% turnout than win it on a 40% turnout.AlastairMeeks said:I see this is not the thread when pbers across the political spectrum are agonising about poor levels of voter engagement.
Priti Patel has been a complete numpty.
Plus her logic for supporting the death penalty has irked me for many years.
*innocent face*
Typical leaver, always obsessed about Muslims.0 -
No.SandyRentool said:
IIRC, didn't Cameron pretty much say he would sack Patel after the referendum? She is merely getting her revenge in early. Of course, by September I only expect one of them to be in government - and it ain't Dave.TheScreamingEagles said:
Patel has gone out of her way to trash Cameron and the Government, Grayling has done the exact opposite.Pulpstar said:
Chris Grayling has been much more measured than I expected.TheScreamingEagles said:
I've been very impressed by Leavers like Andrea Leadsom and Chris Grayling who have acted honourably in this referendum.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
And to think that less than 2 months ago you were undecided.TheScreamingEagles said:
I still need to publish my hatchet job on Priti PatelHertsmere_Pubgoer said:
And a 1000 year Patel Maharani after a Leave victory.TheScreamingEagles said:
Maybe. But I'm expecting a Thousand Year Cameroon Reich after a strong Remain victory.Alanbrooke said:
If we get to 80% turnout you wont be seeing a Conservative government for quite some time.TheScreamingEagles said:
Indeed. I'd rather lose this referendum on an 80% turnout than win it on a 40% turnout.AlastairMeeks said:I see this is not the thread when pbers across the political spectrum are agonising about poor levels of voter engagement.
Priti Patel has been a complete numpty.
Plus her logic for supporting the death penalty has irked me for many years.
Ditto Liam Fox.
Sack Patel, and promote Grayling and Fox.0 -
If it does end up really close all this stuff about eu citizens wrongly getting polling cards & extended time to register is going to earn lawyers a lot of money.0
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Huzzah.
We're getting an Ipsos Mori poll next week.
Then one on the 22nd.0 -
Although I think if you turn up at two minutes to ten and there's a massive queue, you can still vote - as long as you're in the queue before ten you'll be fine. Unfortunately I'm not sure there's an online equivalent.GIN1138 said:
Same reason a lot of people wait until two minutes to ten to turn up at their Polling station...FrancisUrquhart said:Why were so many people waiting until 2 hrs before the deadline?
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It was MI7 crashing the website to give more remainers time to register.
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Like it or not, registering with 1 or 2 hours to go is just as legitimate as having been on the register for years and renewing as soon as prompted. The extension to tomorrow night is no more and no less than we should have expected, enough for the news to get out and for people to check back but not any longer.FrancisUrquhart said:
To be fair I can imagine occurrences why you might not be able to get to a polling station until really late on ie work / delays on trains etc, but registering online to vote takes 2 minutes & can be done anytime, anywhere.GIN1138 said:
Same reason a lot of people wait until two minutes to ten to turn up at their Polling station...FrancisUrquhart said:Why were so many people waiting until 2 hrs before the deadline?
Did I read down thread that they were going to try and verify that those registering today and tomorrow had attempted to access the website last night, or is that wrong?0 -
I hear the operation was run out of some offices in finchley road...TGOHF said:It was MI7 crashing the website to give more remainers time to register.
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any chance of it being finally decided in the european court of human rights .....FrancisUrquhart said:If it does end up really close all this stuff about eu citizens wrongly getting polling cards & extended time to register is going to earn lawyers a lot of money.
0 -
I hope all you Leavers are using pens and not pencils when you send in your postal votes so MI7 can't rub your votes out.TGOHF said:It was MI7 crashing the website to give more remainers time to register.
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The real question is if you are offered the chance to change your vote do you stick or switch?TheScreamingEagles said:
I hope all you Leavers are using pens and not pencils when you send in your postal votes so MI7 can't rub your votes out.TGOHF said:It was MI7 crashing the website to give more remainers time to register.
0 -
The riptide of madness let loose by this referendum is, well, unfortunate. Sometimes I wonder if asking the people is overrated.NickPalmer said:Out of the blue, had a long-standing correspondent for Broxtowe send me an email saying that I and everyone else supporting Remain were TRAITORS.
I've asked him if it's not a bit worrying to think that roughly half the population seem to be traitors, did he think that a few might be non-traitors with a different opinion?
No reply so far!0 -
If it's 51-49 in either direction, it's going to be the UK version of the 2000 US Presidential Election.FrancisUrquhart said:If it does end up really close all this stuff about eu citizens wrongly getting polling cards & extended time to register is going to earn lawyers a lot of money.
0 -
My favourite bit with Joey Essex was the look on EdM's face - he clearly didn't understand a word he said, hence asking others to answer him. I know Joey's got quite a strong accent, but it's not that impenetrable.FrancisUrquhart said:
Let's see if he can do better than with joey Essex...i am presuming the school kids will be more intelligent...more intelligent than corbyn that is!Scott_P said:Corbyn live Q&A on Sky apparently
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LOL. Excellent.FrancisUrquhart said:
The real question is if you are offered the chance to change your vote do you stick or switch?TheScreamingEagles said:
I hope all you Leavers are using pens and not pencils when you send in your postal votes so MI7 can't rub your votes out.TGOHF said:It was MI7 crashing the website to give more remainers time to register.
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Only if it's 50.1% v 49.9% close.FrancisUrquhart said:If it does end up really close all this stuff about eu citizens wrongly getting polling cards & extended time to register is going to earn lawyers a lot of money.
0 -
Priti won't be sacked (if Remain win) but she will be denied full Cabinet membership (which was almost hers for the taking) and shuffled off to another more junior department but remaining a Minister of State.SandyRentool said:
IIRC, didn't Cameron pretty much say he would sack Patel after the referendum? She is merely getting her revenge in early. Of course, by September I only expect one of them to be in government - and it ain't Dave.TheScreamingEagles said:
Patel has gone out of her way to trash Cameron and the Government, Grayling has done the exact opposite.Pulpstar said:
Chris Grayling has been much more measured than I expected.TheScreamingEagles said:
I've been very impressed by Leavers like Andrea Leadsom and Chris Grayling who have acted honourably in this referendum.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
And to think that less than 2 months ago you were undecided.TheScreamingEagles said:
I still need to publish my hatchet job on Priti PatelHertsmere_Pubgoer said:
And a 1000 year Patel Maharani after a Leave victory.TheScreamingEagles said:
Maybe. But I'm expecting a Thousand Year Cameroon Reich after a strong Remain victory.Alanbrooke said:
If we get to 80% turnout you wont be seeing a Conservative government for quite some time.TheScreamingEagles said:
Indeed. I'd rather lose this referendum on an 80% turnout than win it on a 40% turnout.AlastairMeeks said:I see this is not the thread when pbers across the political spectrum are agonising about poor levels of voter engagement.
Priti Patel has been a complete numpty.
Plus her logic for supporting the death penalty has irked me for many years.
Ditto Liam Fox.
Sack Patel, and promote Grayling and Fox.0 -
STFU!!FrancisUrquhart said:
I hear the operation was run out of some offices in finchley road...TGOHF said:It was MI7 crashing the website to give more remainers time to register.
0 -
Has anybody worked out why Gibraltar have been given the vote in this referendum yet? Just because they are a part of one of our European Parliamentary seats it is not obvious why they should get a say on what the UK should do as a sovereign nation. If it gets really close this is going to look even odder.0
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is the eu the goat or the car?DavidL said:
LOL. Excellent.FrancisUrquhart said:
The real question is if you are offered the chance to change your vote do you stick or switch?TheScreamingEagles said:
I hope all you Leavers are using pens and not pencils when you send in your postal votes so MI7 can't rub your votes out.TGOHF said:It was MI7 crashing the website to give more remainers time to register.
0 -
Ultimately I doubt it will be that close and all of this will be academic.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Only if it's 50.1% v 49.9% close.FrancisUrquhart said:If it does end up really close all this stuff about eu citizens wrongly getting polling cards & extended time to register is going to earn lawyers a lot of money.
0 -
Austria seems to have accepted their knife edge result without any faff. The key question is whether any irregularity would be sufficient to alter the result. You probably need to have a sub 50,000 margin before anyone would get too agitated.Sandpit said:
If it's 51-49 in either direction, it's going to be the UK version of the 2000 US Presidential Election.FrancisUrquhart said:If it does end up really close all this stuff about eu citizens wrongly getting polling cards & extended time to register is going to earn lawyers a lot of money.
0 -
Hold on a sec.
Didn't we just have some elections in April?
Why the complete lack of concern by all parties (voters included) on registration then?0 -
It's a little like Athenian democracy - when you actually study the period and see some of the boneheaded things they voted through during their golden period, it really does make you mutter under your breath.DavidL said:
The riptide of madness let loose by this referendum is, well, unfortunate. Sometimes I wonder if asking the people is overrated.NickPalmer said:Out of the blue, had a long-standing correspondent for Broxtowe send me an email saying that I and everyone else supporting Remain were TRAITORS.
I've asked him if it's not a bit worrying to think that roughly half the population seem to be traitors, did he think that a few might be non-traitors with a different opinion?
No reply so far!
As one example, Themistocles (saviour of the Greeks at Salamis) was stripped of his naval command in the following year, and ostracised a few years later. It was even worse during the Peloponnesian War.0 -
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jun/08/austrias-far-right-freedom-party-challenges-presidential-election-reultsSandyRentool said:
Austria seems to have accepted their knife edge result without any faff. The key question is whether any irregularity would be sufficient to alter the result. You probably need to have a sub 50,000 margin before anyone would get too agitated.Sandpit said:
If it's 51-49 in either direction, it's going to be the UK version of the 2000 US Presidential Election.FrancisUrquhart said:If it does end up really close all this stuff about eu citizens wrongly getting polling cards & extended time to register is going to earn lawyers a lot of money.
0 -
We had some quite big ones in May. Not many in April.VapidBilge said:Hold on a sec.
Didn't we just have some elections in April?
Why the complete lack of concern by all parties (voters included) on registration then?0 -
I asked about the Channel Islands and IoM earlier. Nobody replied.....DavidL said:Has anybody worked out why Gibraltar have been given the vote in this referendum yet? Just because they are a part of one of our European Parliamentary seats it is not obvious why they should get a say on what the UK should do as a sovereign nation. If it gets really close this is going to look even odder.
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In my limited experience fantasies about lawyers earning mountains of dosh arguing about election results seem to be mainly that. :-(SandyRentool said:
Austria seems to have accepted their knife edge result without any faff. The key question is whether any irregularity would be sufficient to alter the result. You probably need to have a sub 50,000 margin before anyone would get too agitated.Sandpit said:
If it's 51-49 in either direction, it's going to be the UK version of the 2000 US Presidential Election.FrancisUrquhart said:If it does end up really close all this stuff about eu citizens wrongly getting polling cards & extended time to register is going to earn lawyers a lot of money.
0
