politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Boris’s flexible approach to the truth appears to be catchi

Pretty poor attempt at a hatchet job

Agreed Mike. This revelation about Boris's flagrant contradictions is incendiary. It could prove lethal both to him and Leave more generally. What the hell was he thinking of? Did he just forget what he'd written for The Telegraph? Did he write it when drunk?

Morris_Dancer said:

Could be worse. He could've gone from claiming he might recommend we leave to claiming a Leave vote could lead to World War Three.

No that would be too ridiculous. No one could claim that with a straight face and not be laughed at by the electorate.

On another note had the radio on at work for the radio 4 news. Christine Lagarde gave her very serious warning..

"It could be from pretty bad to very very bad"

A colleague laughed and laughed. Sounded like a monty python skit to him.

When there laughing at you... you've lost them.

Morris_Dancer said:

Could be worse. He could've gone from claiming he might recommend we leave to claiming a Leave vote could lead to World War Three.

Well in a few short weeks he has gone from thinking about recommending we stay to saying it would be utterly catastrophic if we did remain.

SouthamObserver said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Could be worse. He could've gone from claiming he might recommend we leave to claiming a Leave vote could lead to World War Three.

Well in a few short weeks he has gone from thinking about recommending we stay to saying it would be utterly catastrophic if we did remain.

Which sort of sums up why the public think that politicians talk rubbish.

Boris, Cameron and Corbyn can all be argued to have changed their minds, and disagreeing with the first 2 would lead to hell on earth.... It's rubbish.

Stark_Dawning said:

That Freedland article is interesting. I actually took it on good faith from some of the Leavers on here that Cameron banged on about 'World War III' in his speech the other day. It was mentioned umpteen times. Yet Freedland reveals Dave said no such thing. I should have known better.

It was apparently in the press releases sent to the press whos headlines caused a re write of the speech on the grounds they all laughed.

Nobody cares. People like him.

Does this mean that REMAIN will win?

Stark_Dawning said:

That Freedland article is interesting. I actually took it on good faith from some of the Leavers on here that Cameron banged on about 'World War III' in his speech the other day. It was mentioned umpteen times. Yet Freedland reveals Dave said no such thing. I should have known better.

This was discussed at great length last night.

Boris Johnson is pretty unremarkable as a politician. His legacy from being mayor of London seems to be those bikes you can hire and route master buses! Not a very great footnote in history. Even Ken Livingstone left more of a legacy with his congestion charge and the revenue raising powers encapsulated by its imposition. This is from a person who cannot stand Livingstone and his slimy voice and mannerisms.

I can never understand why Boris is given a free ride in the media, he is just a complete joke with pretty poor judgement. I don't think Johnson is fit to be PM, he would be a disaster once the novelty wore off. I don't think much of autistic Osborne either as a replacement for Cameron.

One person I do think looks right for the role as PM is the Chief Whip, Mark Harper. He would not be the first Chief Whip to get to No.10 either as Ted Heath was Chief Whip in the 1950s. But for Harper to become PM, it would mean Cameron staying on until 2019 as Harper would need a stint in a great office of state and the media exposure linked to such a role. Harper is obviously trusted as he is Chief Whip in a parliament where the Government has a slim majority, so we shall see.

Stark_Dawning said:

That Freedland article is interesting. I actually took it on good faith from some of the Leavers on here that Cameron banged on about 'World War III' in his speech the other day. It was mentioned umpteen times. Yet Freedland reveals Dave said no such thing. I should have known better.

I heard Cameron talking about the First Wold War and the Second World War and then saying the EU then stopped such things and that the UK LEAVING the EU would increase the risk of such things happening again.

foxinsoxuk said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Does this mean that REMAIN will win?

The betting markets and the vast majority of PBers in the Feb 29th Nojam think so!

I think I went 58-42 Remain. Things are not playing out quite as I expected - I still think a comfortable Remain win is likely, but I'm not nearly as sure now.

Aren't this and the previous thread published in the wrong order?
The Eurovision one should have been for this evening.
The Spanish, Bulgarian and even the French entries are surprisingly good this year.
But I think the top 4 will be Russia, Australia, Sweden and Ukraine although not necessarily in that order.
Betfair had the UK at 3.4 to finish 22nd or lower which looks a bit of value for a bottom 5 finish.
We're 3rd in the betting to finish last with Germany as favourites.

tlg86 said:

foxinsoxuk said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Does this mean that REMAIN will win?

The betting markets and the vast majority of PBers in the Feb 29th Nojam think so!

I think I went 58-42 Remain. Things are not playing out quite as I expected - I still think a comfortable Remain win is likely, but I'm not nearly as sure now.

It would be interesting to have a second NoJam on the subject (he says still flushed with his victory in the London mayoral contest). I went for Leave on 41.57 and a 67% turnout. I may have been a little optomistic on the turnout.

foxinsoxuk said:

tlg86 said:

foxinsoxuk said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Does this mean that REMAIN will win?

The betting markets and the vast majority of PBers in the Feb 29th Nojam think so!

I think I went 58-42 Remain. Things are not playing out quite as I expected - I still think a comfortable Remain win is likely, but I'm not nearly as sure now.

It would be interesting to have a second NoJam on the subject (he says still flushed with his victory in the London mayoral contest). I went for Leave on 41.57 and a 67% turnout. I may have been a little optomistic on the turnout.

I went 72% turnout! Of course, we've all seen Jack's ARSE since then so that may make a difference.

ThreeQuidder said:

Did a comment with poll figures just get deleted? Embargo broken?

It is still on OGH's Twitter feed.

another_richard said:

Dishonest politician shocker !!!!!!

On the scale of the lies told about Iraq, immigration, the banks, government debt and university tuition fees I doubt these are going to register very high.

Boris has not yet been in a position where he's been able to tell a Big Lie. But his track record indicates he would have no compunction in doing so.

The ComRes poll embargo ends at 7.30 pm.

Y'all have to wait until then to officially discuss it.

Has always amused me that Piers Gaveston has caused both Boris Johnson and David Cameron so much grief.

surbiton said:

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/apr/13/solar-power-sets-new-british-record-by-beating-coal-for-a-day

Brilliant news !

The statement that solar has "exploded" isn't really reinforced by the graph in the article. More like coal has tanked!

SouthamObserver said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Could be worse. He could've gone from claiming he might recommend we leave to claiming a Leave vote could lead to World War Three.

Well in a few short weeks he has gone from thinking about recommending we stay to saying it would be utterly catastrophic if we did remain.

Surely he must have crossed David Cameron moving in the opposite direction.

another_richard said:

surbiton said:

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/apr/13/solar-power-sets-new-british-record-by-beating-coal-for-a-day

Brilliant news !

Isn't Labour policy now to reopen the coal mines ?

Although I don't think which coal mines to be reopened was specified - the ones shut by Blair or the ones shut by Wilson.

Or, if he only has a small budget, the ones shut by Thatcher?

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eagles, he didn't do much for Edward II's career either.

Edward II was one of the primary reasons I became so interested in history.

Who knew tales of sticking red hot pokers up people's bums would appeal to school children so much

Mr. Eagles, alas, that's likely a made up tale (fortunately for Edward II).

TheScreamingEagles said:

GIN1138 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The ComRes poll embargo ends at 7.30 pm.

Y'all have to wait until then to officially discuss it.

Did you break the embargo? A session of thirty lashes in Mr and Mrs Jack W's "dungeon" in that case!

I've never broken an embargo. Is the most stressful thing for me, when I have embargoed polling and I'm scared I'll break it with a case of premature publishing.

Well, at least it's not a superembargo and we can actually talk about it without fear of being sued....

The Eddie Mair interview with Boris Johnson set the standard."You're a nasty piece of work,aren't you?" is devastating.The 5-2 back price is joke.He is simply not fit for the office of Primus Inter Pares.Of those Tories in the Leave camp,Gove is surely better value at 8-1.He was even better at 28-1.For the Tory right,and another from the Leave camp,Liam Fox continues to poll well in Con Home polls,far better than the 40-1he's currently priced at.
For the next Tory leader,lay Johnson,back Gove and back Fox at 40-1.

Mr. Eagles, don't blame the Greeks or Romans for your depraved deviancy.

volcanopete said:

The Eddie Mair interview with Boris Johnson set the standard."You're a nasty piece of work,aren't you?" is devastating.The 5-2 back price is joke.He is simply not fit for the office of Primus Inter Pares.Of those Tories in the Leave camp,Gove is surely better value at 8-1.He was even better at 28-1.For the Tory right,and another from the Leave camp,Liam Fox continues to poll well in Con Home polls,far better than the 40-1he's currently priced at.
For the next Tory leader,lay Johnson,back Gove and back Fox at 40-1.

Can't see Fox say making any higher than 4th or 5th on a ballot of MPs

another_richard said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

another_richard said:

surbiton said:

Not only is Boris an enigma, so is his family history unless someone can clear this up.

His great-grandfather was Ali Kemal. But his dad's surname is Johnson. How did Kemal morph into Johnson ?

Was being born on the wrong side of the blanket involved ? Probably not as it would have been a big deal in those days.

' Johnson was born in 1940 in Penzance, Cornwall, the son of Osman Kemal Wilfred Johnson and Irene Williams, daughter of Stanley F. Williams of Bromley, Kent, by his marriage to Marie Louise de Pfeffel (or Freiin von Pfeffel) in Paris on 15 August 1882.[2] His paternal grandfather Ali Kemal Bey, one of the last interior ministers of the Ottoman Empire government, was assassinated during the Turkish War of Independence. Stanley's father was born Osman Wilfred Kemal or Osman Ali in England in Bournemouth, Hampshire, in 1909, his Anglo-Swiss mother Winifred dying shortly after giving birth.

After Ali Kemal returned to Turkey in 1912, Stanley's father and aunt were brought up by their English grandmother Margaret Brun (née Johnson) and took her maiden name, Stanley's father becoming simply Wilfred Johnson. '

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stanley_Johnson_(writer)

I thought they took on the Johnson name because they were here during the First World War, and with The Ottoman Empire siding with the Germans, it was thought it was apt to change their family name to something a bit more English.

I've believe the Saxe-Coburg and Gotha family did the same.

So if Churchill hadn't seized the Turkish dreadnoughts Boris Kemal would have been London's Mayor.

Indeed, I don't think Churchill was ever that keen on the Turks.

The Dardanelles offensive going mammary glands up on his watch had something to do with it.

Stark_Dawning said:

It's no surprise that Leave have been inventing quotations - saying that Cameron claimed that Brexit would result in the outbreak of a Third World War etc. Shouts of 'Project Fear', the notion that any predictions of a downside to Brexit can be blithely discounted, have been Leave's chief weapon. So by falsely attributing obviously over-the-top claims to high-profile Remainers, they hope to cast mistrust upon the utterances their opponents are genuinely making. It's ugly, but you can understand the tactic.

It's the "reductio ad ridiculum" fallacy used as a rhetorical device. Exaggerate and ridicule.

Good lord. Benedict is back.

TheScreamingEagles said:

another_richard said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

another_richard said:

surbiton said:

Not only is Boris an enigma, so is his family history unless someone can clear this up.

His great-grandfather was Ali Kemal. But his dad's surname is Johnson. How did Kemal morph into Johnson ?

Was being born on the wrong side of the blanket involved ? Probably not as it would have been a big deal in those days.

' Johnson was born in 1940 in Penzance, Cornwall, the son of Osman Kemal Wilfred Johnson and Irene Williams, daughter of Stanley F. Williams of Bromley, Kent, by his marriage to Marie Louise de Pfeffel (or Freiin von Pfeffel) in Paris on 15 August 1882.[2] His paternal grandfather Ali Kemal Bey, one of the last interior ministers of the Ottoman Empire government, was assassinated during the Turkish War of Independence. Stanley's father was born Osman Wilfred Kemal or Osman Ali in England in Bournemouth, Hampshire, in 1909, his Anglo-Swiss mother Winifred dying shortly after giving birth.

After Ali Kemal returned to Turkey in 1912, Stanley's father and aunt were brought up by their English grandmother Margaret Brun (née Johnson) and took her maiden name, Stanley's father becoming simply Wilfred Johnson. '

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stanley_Johnson_(writer)

I thought they took on the Johnson name because they were here during the First World War, and with The Ottoman Empire siding with the Germans, it was thought it was apt to change their family name to something a bit more English.

I've believe the Saxe-Coburg and Gotha family did the same.

So if Churchill hadn't seized the Turkish dreadnoughts Boris Kemal would have been London's Mayor.

Indeed, I don't think Churchill was ever that keen on the Turks.

The Dardanelles offensive going mammary glands up on his watch had something to do with it.

Liberals, as Churchill was at the time, were traditionally anti-Turkish.

GIN1138 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

GIN1138 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

GIN1138 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

GIN1138 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The ComRes poll embargo ends at 7.30 pm.

Y'all have to wait until then to officially discuss it.

Did you break the embargo? A session of thirty lashes in Mr and Mrs Jack W's "dungeon" in that case!

I've never broken an embargo. Is the most stressful thing for me, when I have embargoed polling and I'm scared I'll break it with a case of premature publishing.

Premature Publishing????????

Yeah, the worst embargo was during the Indyref, someone decided that a good time for an embargo to end was 2.01 am.

I had that poll since 12.30pm the previous day.

Are we getting an #EuRef question with tonight's ComRes?

I don't think so.

We're getting an avalanche of EU related questions though.

What's the point of that if we don't get the only one that counts?

Tut.

I believe ComRes think phone polls are more accurate on the referendum than online ones.

TSE As Guest Editor Of PB
Was Racked With Nerves For All To See
For A Polling Embargo
Caused An Ejaculation No Show
And His Red Shoes Were All A Go Go

GIN1138 said:

FrankBooth said:

Good lord. Benedict is back.

Maybe James Burdett, SallyC, Ted and GrumpyOldMan/Coldstone will be next?

Coldstone is on a mission with his crack team of Gas Board special forces.

I haven't read the comments below this but I'm confident there are a surfeit of "establishment" and "what do they know" themed posts.

I have just been phoned by a pollster for the first time in my life. Ipsos Mori...

1. Saying I voted independent last election confused them cos of my being in the people's republic of bercow and so couldn't vote blue, red or orange.

2. Expect a surge to remain from tory voters.

3. Corbyn is very satisfactory but not ready to be PM.

4. Interesting Qs on Europe including Dave vs Boris quotes re European war risk and also how satisfied I am with QE2, Charles and William.


The Mail I presume???

Scrapheap_as_was said:

I have just been phoned by a pollster for the first time in my life. Ipsos Mori...

1. Saying I voted independent last election confused them cos of my being in the people's republic of bercow and so couldn't vote blue, red or orange.

2. Expect a surge to remain from tory voters.

3. Corbyn is very satisfactory but not ready to be PM.

4. Interesting Qs on Europe including Dave vs Boris quotes re European war risk and also how satisfied I am with QE2, Charles and William.


The Mail I presume???

No, it'll be the Ipsos Mori poll for The Evening Standard, that'll come out next Wednesdayish

FrankBooth said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Has always amused me that Piers Gaveston has caused both Boris Johnson and David Cameron so much grief.

The fact that they should belong to a society named in honour of the supposed homosexual lover of King Edward II has put them up in my estimation. According to wiki the society's motto is '(Sane) non memini ne audisse unum alterum ita dilixisse' which roughly translates as 'Truly, none remember hearing of a man enjoying another so much'

Neither of them were members, my friends who attended Oxford say the Ashcroft story was bollocks, there was no way you could be concurrently members of The Piers Gaveston Society and the Bullingdon Club.

Stark_Dawning said:

BenedictWhite said:

Stark_Dawning said:

It's no surprise that Leave have been inventing quotations - saying that Cameron claimed that Brexit would result in the outbreak of a Third World War etc. Shouts of 'Project Fear', the notion that any predictions of a downside to Brexit can be blithely discounted, have been Leave's chief weapon. So by falsely attributing obviously over-the-top claims to high-profile Remainers, they hope to cast mistrust upon the utterances their opponents are genuinely making. It's ugly, but you can understand the tactic.

That all comes from the papers who were briefed the night before.

They all ridiculed the idea so either the briefings were wrong, all the papers made it up, or he changed the speech because he was laughed at,

Could you provide a link to this press release that caused such hilarity? I'd like to see how it differs from what Cameron actually later went on to say.

I said briefing not press release, and offered two other "equally plausible" explanations.

1. All the papers are secretly in cahoots with leave.

2. The person doing the briefing made it up.

FrankBooth said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrankBooth said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Has always amused me that Piers Gaveston has caused both Boris Johnson and David Cameron so much grief.

The fact that they should belong to a society named in honour of the supposed homosexual lover of King Edward II has put them up in my estimation. According to wiki the society's motto is '(Sane) non memini ne audisse unum alterum ita dilixisse' which roughly translates as 'Truly, none remember hearing of a man enjoying another so much'

Neither of them were members, my friends who attended Oxford say the Ashcroft story was bollocks, there was no way you could be concurrently members of The Piers Gaveston Society and the Bullingdon Club.

Perhaps it suits Cameron to have people believe he was a member of Piers Gaveston what with his gay marriage supporting, occasionally metrosexual image

David Cameron voted to retain section 28.

The Bullingdon story came out the moment he ran to be Tory Leader, if he was a member of the Piers Gaveston, that too would have come out pretty sharpish, not a decade later.

@georgegalloway: After discussions with my friends in the labour movement I've decided not to run in Tooting. The dangers of a Tory victory are too great.