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Is Sunak going to give state pensioners an 8% increase? – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited August 12 in General
imageIs Sunak going to give state pensioners an 8% increase? – politicalbetting.com

This morning’s Daily Express raises what is almost certainly going to be the biggest, and potentially most politically damaging, decision that Sunak has to make – should state pensions rise in line with the triple lock formula which because of COVID could give them (and me for that matter) an 8% rise.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 15,541
    I guess the path of least resistance is just to use the average over a few years instead of doing the calculation once every year. That avoids an immediate bump while preserving the core policy direction that an ever increasing-part of the nation's wealth is syphoned from the young to the old until the pensioners have it all.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 638

    I guess the path of least resistance is just to use the average over a few years instead of doing the calculation once every year. That avoids an immediate bump while preserving the core policy direction that an ever increasing-part of the nation's wealth is syphoned from the young to the old until the pensioners have it all.

    Or the baseline for the earnings growth calculation is defined as the last year in which earnings was the basis for the pensions increase, normalised by the pension increases applied since. That would eliminate the down/up fluctuation.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 5,209
    Keep the triple lock. The UK state pension is already the worst in the developed world.

    The UK state pension comes bottom in a league table of net replacement rates for average earnings at just 28 per cent, according to an influential global pensions report by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.

    This compares with a 59 per cent average across the 36 members of the international organisation of rich democratic countries analysed in its latest report

    https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2021/07/19/15/45490449-9803095-_Source_OECD_-a-22_1626706388588.jpg
  • FishingFishing Posts: 2,954
    I'm not sure it'll be as damaging as people think, politically speaking, just because it's so difficult to justify an 8% increase for the old at a time when the young are getting completely screwed.

    The Triple Lock, like the FTPA and so much else the Heir to Blair did is long overdue for the scrapheap.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 33,226
    In #Russia, the number of officially reported #COVID19 deaths has been hovering just below the 800 per day mark for weeks.

    Such consistency is statistically improbable:

    https://twitter.com/AlexKokcharov/status/1425055635041886222

    Improbable is generous.
    Of course the rest of us aren’t perfect either, but this is absurd.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 33,226
    Another nail in ivermectin’s coffin with the results from a fairly large, well conducted trial.
    Summary results for ivermectin for COVID-19 from the large TOGETHER trial were just released

    No benefit whatsoever for ivermectin on risk of hospitalization or mortality in a mild outpatient group

    https://twitter.com/GidMK/status/1425611418276024325
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 5,209
    ‘Blood clots after Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine rare but devastating’

    A breakthrough study lead by scientists in Oxford has revealed 'devastating' findings on blood clotting in some adults after Covid-19 vaccination.

    … the overall mortality rate of patients with VITT was 23 per cent.

    … "In those aged under 50, incidence is around one in 50,000 people who have received the vaccine. But our study shows that for those who develop VITT, it can be devastating. It often affects young, otherwise healthy vaccine recipients and has high mortality.

    … Some 85 per cent of the patients studied were under the age of 60, despite most of the elderly population having been vaccinated.

    Almost all of those presenting to hospital experienced the condition between five and 30 days after their first vaccination with the Oxford AstraZeneca vaccine.

    https://www.oxfordmail.co.uk/news/19506046.blood-clots-oxford-astrazeneca-vaccine-rare-devastating/

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 33,226
    Paper from the US (Mayo clinic) confirming the results from Israel for the reduced effectiveness of vaccines against Delta.
    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.06.21261707v1.full.pdf

    What’s interesting is the significantly reduced effectiveness of the Pfizer compared to the Moderna vaccine in preventing infection, while both seem equally effective in preventing severe disease.

    Also notes the big difference in dosing for what are very similar vaccines.
    BNT162b2 is administered as 30μg/0.3mL (100 μg/mL) doses 21 days apart20 and the Moderna vaccine is administered as 100μg/0.5mL (200 μg/mL) doses 28 days apart.21 Assuming similar sized constructs, this means that each mRNA-1273 dose provides three times more mRNA copies of the Spike protein than BNT162b2, which could result in more effective priming of the immune response. …
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 15,541
    Nigelb said:

    Paper from the US (Mayo clinic) confirming the results from Israel for the reduced effectiveness of vaccines against Delta.
    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.06.21261707v1.full.pdf

    What’s interesting is the significantly reduced effectiveness of the Pfizer compared to the Moderna vaccine in preventing infection, while both seem equally effective in preventing severe disease.

    Also notes the big difference in dosing for what are very similar vaccines.
    BNT162b2 is administered as 30μg/0.3mL (100 μg/mL) doses 21 days apart20 and the Moderna vaccine is administered as 100μg/0.5mL (200 μg/mL) doses 28 days apart.21 Assuming similar sized constructs, this means that each mRNA-1273 dose provides three times more mRNA copies of the Spike protein than BNT162b2, which could result in more effective priming of the immune response. …

    The place to go to understand this stuff is r/covid19, this is the thread on that paper:
    https://old.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/p1dd63/comparison_of_two_highlyeffective_mrna_vaccines/

    Please don't comment there unless you actually know something or have an intelligent question.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 5,209
    Prince Andrew: Refusal to talk to Epstein investigators ‘straining relations between UK and America’

    … the lack of information-sharing had caused diplomatic strain, with US law enforcement and diplomats raising the matter with their British counterparts.

    The lack of cooperation now spans three years of reported attempts by the US authorities to gather facts from the royal who, in a statement from 2019, said he would be willing to help US law-enforcement with investigations. However, in January last year, Manhattan US attorney Geoffrey Berman said the country’s authorities had received “zero cooperation” from the prince…

    Of particular interest to the US authorities is how money transfers may be linked to the movement of young women and girls. The various interested bodies, including the FBI, believe these may offer insights into ongoing organised criminal operations.

    The authorities’ interests are understood to include multiple trips by the royal to Epstein’s Caribbean island, Little St James, as well as Florida and New York. Last year, prosecutors in the US Virgin Islands, which includes Little St James, alleged Mr Epstein abused hundreds of young women and girls up until 2018.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/prince-andrew-america-epstein-probes-cooperation-b1900854.html?amp
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 33,226
    edited August 12
    .
    Nigelb said:

    Paper from the US (Mayo clinic) confirming the results from Israel for the reduced effectiveness of vaccines against Delta.
    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.06.21261707v1.full.pdf

    What’s interesting is the significantly reduced effectiveness of the Pfizer compared to the Moderna vaccine in preventing infection, while both seem equally effective in preventing severe disease.

    Also notes the big difference in dosing for what are very similar vaccines.
    BNT162b2 is administered as 30μg/0.3mL (100 μg/mL) doses 21 days apart20 and the Moderna vaccine is administered as 100μg/0.5mL (200 μg/mL) doses 28 days apart.21 Assuming similar sized constructs, this means that each mRNA-1273 dose provides three times more mRNA copies of the Spike protein than BNT162b2, which could result in more effective priming of the immune response. …

    And similar results from Quatar:
    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.11.21261885v1.full.pdf
    From a much younger average population.
    The results include 1.2m vaccinees, so are pretty robust - though there were a literal handful of cases for severe disease, so the statistical difference between the two vaccines is unclear.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,186
    One for John Rentoul’s QTWTAIN series.

    No, the Chancellor isn’t going to increase pensions by 8%.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,186
    If we are still doing weather reports, 35°C and 40% humidity. At 8am.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 5,209
    Best prices - Next PM

    Sunak 11/4
    Starmer 5/1
    Gove 12/1
    Hunt 27/2
    Raab 20/1
    Javid 25/1
    Truss 25/1
    Burnham 28/1
    33 bar
  • FishingFishing Posts: 2,954

    Fishing said:

    I'm not sure it'll be as damaging as people think, politically speaking, just because it's so difficult to justify an 8% increase for the old at a time when the young are getting completely screwed.

    The Triple Lock, like the FTPA and so much else the Heir to Blair did is long overdue for the scrapheap.

    This is the problem with Tories: you are so inconsistent. Johnson has ditched pretty much everything Cameron, Major and Thatcher ever did. The obvious conclusion is that one day a future Tory PM will ditch everything Johnson does.

    The modern iteration of the Tory party:

    - English Nationalist, not One Nation
    - Revolutionary, not Conservative
    - High tax/high debt, not Friedman
    - State control, not free market
    - Social engineering, not conservatism
    - Nasty, not paternal
    - Reactive, not confident
    - Populist, not principled
    - Clown, not competence
    - Degenerate, not moral
    - Cash for pals, not good governance
    - Fiscal spaffing, not fiscal moderation
    - Fuck business, not pro business
    - Proroguing parliament, not the rule of law
    - Lying to the monarch, not respecting institutions
    - Authoritarian, not liberal
    - Corruption, not ethics

    The only constant is the blue rosettes.
    Very happy to be inconsistent with David Cameron.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 5,209
    Fishing said:

    Fishing said:

    I'm not sure it'll be as damaging as people think, politically speaking, just because it's so difficult to justify an 8% increase for the old at a time when the young are getting completely screwed.

    The Triple Lock, like the FTPA and so much else the Heir to Blair did is long overdue for the scrapheap.

    This is the problem with Tories: you are so inconsistent. Johnson has ditched pretty much everything Cameron, Major and Thatcher ever did. The obvious conclusion is that one day a future Tory PM will ditch everything Johnson does.

    The modern iteration of the Tory party:

    - English Nationalist, not One Nation
    - Revolutionary, not Conservative
    - High tax/high debt, not Friedman
    - State control, not free market
    - Social engineering, not conservatism
    - Nasty, not paternal
    - Reactive, not confident
    - Populist, not principled
    - Clown, not competence
    - Degenerate, not moral
    - Cash for pals, not good governance
    - Fiscal spaffing, not fiscal moderation
    - Fuck business, not pro business
    - Proroguing parliament, not the rule of law
    - Lying to the monarch, not respecting institutions
    - Authoritarian, not liberal
    - Corruption, not ethics

    The only constant is the blue rosettes.
    Very happy to be inconsistent with David Cameron.
    But presumably less happy to be inconsistent with Margaret Thatcher?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 8,569

    ‘Blood clots after Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine rare but devastating’

    A breakthrough study lead by scientists in Oxford has revealed 'devastating' findings on blood clotting in some adults after Covid-19 vaccination.

    … the overall mortality rate of patients with VITT was 23 per cent.

    … "In those aged under 50, incidence is around one in 50,000 people who have received the vaccine. But our study shows that for those who develop VITT, it can be devastating. It often affects young, otherwise healthy vaccine recipients and has high mortality.

    … Some 85 per cent of the patients studied were under the age of 60, despite most of the elderly population having been vaccinated.

    Almost all of those presenting to hospital experienced the condition between five and 30 days after their first vaccination with the Oxford AstraZeneca vaccine.

    https://www.oxfordmail.co.uk/news/19506046.blood-clots-oxford-astrazeneca-vaccine-rare-devastating/

    Messy reporting. Why is one number per 50,000 and the other per 100? The incidence rate is in under 50s but the death rate is in a sample where 15% are above 60. This cashes out as: your chances of dying, as an under 50 year old, are very significantly less than .00046% or 1 in 217,000 (assuming greater lethality among older populations). Wow.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 35,631

    I guess the path of least resistance is just to use the average over a few years instead of doing the calculation once every year. That avoids an immediate bump while preserving the core policy direction that an ever increasing-part of the nation's wealth is syphoned from the young to the old until the pensioners have it all.

    It was rumoured on R4 last month that just such a calculation of ‘underlying’ or long-term’ growth could deliver a figure around 3%. Which would be a highly convenient solution. Apparently someone at the ONS found just such a measure at the back of a filing cabinet recently, which is also highly convenient.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 5,209
    IshmaelZ said:

    ‘Blood clots after Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine rare but devastating’

    A breakthrough study lead by scientists in Oxford has revealed 'devastating' findings on blood clotting in some adults after Covid-19 vaccination.

    … the overall mortality rate of patients with VITT was 23 per cent.

    … "In those aged under 50, incidence is around one in 50,000 people who have received the vaccine. But our study shows that for those who develop VITT, it can be devastating. It often affects young, otherwise healthy vaccine recipients and has high mortality.

    … Some 85 per cent of the patients studied were under the age of 60, despite most of the elderly population having been vaccinated.

    Almost all of those presenting to hospital experienced the condition between five and 30 days after their first vaccination with the Oxford AstraZeneca vaccine.

    https://www.oxfordmail.co.uk/news/19506046.blood-clots-oxford-astrazeneca-vaccine-rare-devastating/

    Messy reporting. Why is one number per 50,000 and the other per 100? The incidence rate is in under 50s but the death rate is in a sample where 15% are above 60. This cashes out as: your chances of dying, as an under 50 year old, are very significantly less than .00046% or 1 in 217,000 (assuming greater lethality among older populations). Wow.
    Take it up with Dr Sue Pavord of Oxford University Hospitals (OUH) NHS Foundation Trust and/or the New England Journal of Medicine. The Oxford Mail is simply summarising their presentations.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 8,569
    Sandpit said:

    One for John Rentoul’s QTWTAIN series.

    No, the Chancellor isn’t going to increase pensions by 8%.

    But Yes, he is going to brief off the record that he really really wanted to and Johnson overruled him.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 33,226
    Texas Children's identifies 25 cases of kids with both RSV and COVID; hospitalizations rising
    https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/health/article/Texas-Children-s-identifies-25-cases-both-RSV-and-16380332.php
    Texas Children’s Hospital is faced with an alarming problem: There are approximately 45 COVID-19 pediatric hospitalizations, an all-time high for the health system, and many of those patients also have respiratory syncytial virus.

    The hospital has identified “25 cases and counting” of children with both RSV and COVID-19 at all three of its campuses, said Dr. James Versalovic, interim pediatrician-in-chief at Texas Children’s Hospital. More than half of those children have been hospitalized.…

  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 8,569

    IshmaelZ said:

    ‘Blood clots after Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine rare but devastating’

    A breakthrough study lead by scientists in Oxford has revealed 'devastating' findings on blood clotting in some adults after Covid-19 vaccination.

    … the overall mortality rate of patients with VITT was 23 per cent.

    … "In those aged under 50, incidence is around one in 50,000 people who have received the vaccine. But our study shows that for those who develop VITT, it can be devastating. It often affects young, otherwise healthy vaccine recipients and has high mortality.

    … Some 85 per cent of the patients studied were under the age of 60, despite most of the elderly population having been vaccinated.

    Almost all of those presenting to hospital experienced the condition between five and 30 days after their first vaccination with the Oxford AstraZeneca vaccine.

    https://www.oxfordmail.co.uk/news/19506046.blood-clots-oxford-astrazeneca-vaccine-rare-devastating/

    Messy reporting. Why is one number per 50,000 and the other per 100? The incidence rate is in under 50s but the death rate is in a sample where 15% are above 60. This cashes out as: your chances of dying, as an under 50 year old, are very significantly less than .00046% or 1 in 217,000 (assuming greater lethality among older populations). Wow.
    Take it up with Dr Sue Pavord of Oxford University Hospitals (OUH) NHS Foundation Trust and/or the New England Journal of Medicine. The Oxford Mail is simply summarising their presentations.
    No issue with Pavord, because it is possible to work out from what she is saying, what she is actually saying. It is the paper which has failed to state the position as per my previous post. If I can, they should be able to.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 5,209
    IshmaelZ said:

    Sandpit said:

    One for John Rentoul’s QTWTAIN series.

    No, the Chancellor isn’t going to increase pensions by 8%.

    But Yes, he is going to brief off the record that he really really wanted to and Johnson overruled him.
    Boris Johnson is a very caring, moderate and understanding individual. He will see Sunak’s off the record briefing as part of the fun and banter of the job. Or maybe he’ll smash a wine glass and Carrie will have to order a new sofa.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 35,631
    Remove the need to isolate, and make a test merely advisory, and in one bound the pingdemic is over: Fully vaccinated people in England will no longer be legally required to self-isolate upon contact with a positive Covid case from Monday, and will instead be advised to take a PCR test – in a marked shift from rules that have led to more than 14m instructions to stay at home.

    Ministers have confirmed that the legal requirement to isolate will be replaced with non-binding advice to take a test for the double-jabbed, as well as those 18 and under. And those who do come into contact with the infected will not be told to isolate while waiting for their results. For people who do test positive, isolation will continue
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 5,209
    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    ‘Blood clots after Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine rare but devastating’

    A breakthrough study lead by scientists in Oxford has revealed 'devastating' findings on blood clotting in some adults after Covid-19 vaccination.

    … the overall mortality rate of patients with VITT was 23 per cent.

    … "In those aged under 50, incidence is around one in 50,000 people who have received the vaccine. But our study shows that for those who develop VITT, it can be devastating. It often affects young, otherwise healthy vaccine recipients and has high mortality.

    … Some 85 per cent of the patients studied were under the age of 60, despite most of the elderly population having been vaccinated.

    Almost all of those presenting to hospital experienced the condition between five and 30 days after their first vaccination with the Oxford AstraZeneca vaccine.

    https://www.oxfordmail.co.uk/news/19506046.blood-clots-oxford-astrazeneca-vaccine-rare-devastating/

    Messy reporting. Why is one number per 50,000 and the other per 100? The incidence rate is in under 50s but the death rate is in a sample where 15% are above 60. This cashes out as: your chances of dying, as an under 50 year old, are very significantly less than .00046% or 1 in 217,000 (assuming greater lethality among older populations). Wow.
    Take it up with Dr Sue Pavord of Oxford University Hospitals (OUH) NHS Foundation Trust and/or the New England Journal of Medicine. The Oxford Mail is simply summarising their presentations.
    No issue with Pavord, because it is possible to work out from what she is saying, what she is actually saying. It is the paper which has failed to state the position as per my previous post. If I can, they should be able to.
    I long ago realised that journalists don’t work like that. They are lazy, and will simply copy and paste from source material, eg press releases. Then tweak a bit. Getting out a calculator is too much like hard work, and what if they do the sum wrong? How embarrassing.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 33,226

    IshmaelZ said:

    ‘Blood clots after Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine rare but devastating’

    A breakthrough study lead by scientists in Oxford has revealed 'devastating' findings on blood clotting in some adults after Covid-19 vaccination.

    … the overall mortality rate of patients with VITT was 23 per cent.

    … "In those aged under 50, incidence is around one in 50,000 people who have received the vaccine. But our study shows that for those who develop VITT, it can be devastating. It often affects young, otherwise healthy vaccine recipients and has high mortality.

    … Some 85 per cent of the patients studied were under the age of 60, despite most of the elderly population having been vaccinated.

    Almost all of those presenting to hospital experienced the condition between five and 30 days after their first vaccination with the Oxford AstraZeneca vaccine.

    https://www.oxfordmail.co.uk/news/19506046.blood-clots-oxford-astrazeneca-vaccine-rare-devastating/

    Messy reporting. Why is one number per 50,000 and the other per 100? The incidence rate is in under 50s but the death rate is in a sample where 15% are above 60. This cashes out as: your chances of dying, as an under 50 year old, are very significantly less than .00046% or 1 in 217,000 (assuming greater lethality among older populations). Wow.
    Take it up with Dr Sue Pavord of Oxford University Hospitals (OUH) NHS Foundation Trust and/or the New England Journal of Medicine. The Oxford Mail is simply summarising their presentations.
    The other question is how those mortality figures have changed with the development of what have been reported as potentially effective treatments for the condition, which the article doesn’t seem to address at all (possible the paper doesn’t, either).
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,186

    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    ‘Blood clots after Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine rare but devastating’

    A breakthrough study lead by scientists in Oxford has revealed 'devastating' findings on blood clotting in some adults after Covid-19 vaccination.

    … the overall mortality rate of patients with VITT was 23 per cent.

    … "In those aged under 50, incidence is around one in 50,000 people who have received the vaccine. But our study shows that for those who develop VITT, it can be devastating. It often affects young, otherwise healthy vaccine recipients and has high mortality.

    … Some 85 per cent of the patients studied were under the age of 60, despite most of the elderly population having been vaccinated.

    Almost all of those presenting to hospital experienced the condition between five and 30 days after their first vaccination with the Oxford AstraZeneca vaccine.

    https://www.oxfordmail.co.uk/news/19506046.blood-clots-oxford-astrazeneca-vaccine-rare-devastating/

    Messy reporting. Why is one number per 50,000 and the other per 100? The incidence rate is in under 50s but the death rate is in a sample where 15% are above 60. This cashes out as: your chances of dying, as an under 50 year old, are very significantly less than .00046% or 1 in 217,000 (assuming greater lethality among older populations). Wow.
    Take it up with Dr Sue Pavord of Oxford University Hospitals (OUH) NHS Foundation Trust and/or the New England Journal of Medicine. The Oxford Mail is simply summarising their presentations.
    No issue with Pavord, because it is possible to work out from what she is saying, what she is actually saying. It is the paper which has failed to state the position as per my previous post. If I can, they should be able to.
    I long ago realised that journalists don’t work like that. They are lazy, and will simply copy and paste from source material, eg press releases. Then tweak a bit. Getting out a calculator is too much like hard work, and what if they do the sum wrong? How embarrassing.
    One thing we have definitely all learned from the past 18 months, is that hacks can’t do sums!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 33,226
    Third dose has substantial effectiveness in an immunocompromised population, which is encouraging. The FDA is likely to approve a third shot for such individuals on this basis.

    Randomized Trial of a Third Dose of mRNA-1273 Vaccine in Transplant Recipients
    https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2111462
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 39,648
    Nigelb said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    ‘Blood clots after Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine rare but devastating’

    A breakthrough study lead by scientists in Oxford has revealed 'devastating' findings on blood clotting in some adults after Covid-19 vaccination.

    … the overall mortality rate of patients with VITT was 23 per cent.

    … "In those aged under 50, incidence is around one in 50,000 people who have received the vaccine. But our study shows that for those who develop VITT, it can be devastating. It often affects young, otherwise healthy vaccine recipients and has high mortality.

    … Some 85 per cent of the patients studied were under the age of 60, despite most of the elderly population having been vaccinated.

    Almost all of those presenting to hospital experienced the condition between five and 30 days after their first vaccination with the Oxford AstraZeneca vaccine.

    https://www.oxfordmail.co.uk/news/19506046.blood-clots-oxford-astrazeneca-vaccine-rare-devastating/

    Messy reporting. Why is one number per 50,000 and the other per 100? The incidence rate is in under 50s but the death rate is in a sample where 15% are above 60. This cashes out as: your chances of dying, as an under 50 year old, are very significantly less than .00046% or 1 in 217,000 (assuming greater lethality among older populations). Wow.
    Take it up with Dr Sue Pavord of Oxford University Hospitals (OUH) NHS Foundation Trust and/or the New England Journal of Medicine. The Oxford Mail is simply summarising their presentations.
    The other question is how those mortality figures have changed with the development of what have been reported as potentially effective treatments for the condition, which the article doesn’t seem to address at all (possible the paper doesn’t, either).
    As someone with a so far unexplained propensity to blood clots in my lungs I must confess for the first time I am relieved that I had the Pfizer rather than the Astra Zeneca.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,186
    Nigelb said:

    Third dose has substantial effectiveness in an immunocompromised population, which is encouraging. The FDA is likely to approve a third shot for such individuals on this basis.

    Randomized Trial of a Third Dose of mRNA-1273 Vaccine in Transplant Recipients
    https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2111462

    It does look like we’ll be getting third shots in the autumn, certainly for the 1-9 groups of the most vulnerable, and probably done alongside the usual ‘flu shots.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 64,643
    edited August 12
    BBC News - New Zealand borders to remain closed for rest of the year
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-58182418

    Going to be interesting what they do next year when they open up and start to get COVID cases, as current gen of vaccines don't have high enough effectiveness to stop cases / transmission.

    Will they accept it or will it be back to zero covid approach?

    BBC News - Australian capital Canberra goes into snap lockdown
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-58182419
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 64,643
    Nigelb said:

    In #Russia, the number of officially reported #COVID19 deaths has been hovering just below the 800 per day mark for weeks.

    Such consistency is statistically improbable:

    https://twitter.com/AlexKokcharov/status/1425055635041886222

    Improbable is generous.
    Of course the rest of us aren’t perfect either, but this is absurd.

    Maybe their version of excel cant handle 4 digit numbers....
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,186

    BBC News - New Zealand borders to remain closed for rest of the year
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-58182418

    Going to be interesting what they do next year when they open up and start to get COVID cases, as current gen of vaccines don't have high enough effectiveness to stop cases / transmission.

    No-one appears to have told their tourist board, who are still spending millions on advertising a place that’s not letting tourists in! Hell, i know a few Kiwis who are struggling to get back there, like Australia they’re limiting numbers based on quarantine availablility.

    Presumably the strategy is going to have to be to vaccinate everyone before opening up, and accepting that there’s going to be a wave of sorts running through the population when they do?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 64,643
    edited August 12
    Sandpit said:

    BBC News - New Zealand borders to remain closed for rest of the year
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-58182418

    Going to be interesting what they do next year when they open up and start to get COVID cases, as current gen of vaccines don't have high enough effectiveness to stop cases / transmission.

    No-one appears to have told their tourist board, who are still spending millions on advertising a place that’s not letting tourists in! Hell, i know a few Kiwis who are struggling to get back there, like Australia they’re limiting numbers based on quarantine availablility.

    Presumably the strategy is going to have to be to vaccinate everyone before opening up, and accepting that there’s going to be a wave of sorts running through the population when they do?
    I keep getting the visit NZ tourist ads. Originally I was actually supposed to be going last year.

    Apparently if you leave NZ at the moment, Feb is the next available hotel quarantine slot.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 34,117
    Fishing said:

    I'm not sure it'll be as damaging as people think, politically speaking, just because it's so difficult to justify an 8% increase for the old at a time when the young are getting completely screwed.

    The Triple Lock, like the FTPA and so much else the Heir to Blair did is long overdue for the scrapheap.

    The young are just greedy whiney no marks. Get out and work like the pensioners did and earn your own money. A days work would be too much for most of the pampered jessies. Back in the day when men were men , we did not plot how to rob our granny , we got out there and worked our socks off, no handed it on a plate in those days.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,186
    edited August 12

    Sandpit said:

    BBC News - New Zealand borders to remain closed for rest of the year
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-58182418

    Going to be interesting what they do next year when they open up and start to get COVID cases, as current gen of vaccines don't have high enough effectiveness to stop cases / transmission.

    No-one appears to have told their tourist board, who are still spending millions on advertising a place that’s not letting tourists in! Hell, i know a few Kiwis who are struggling to get back there, like Australia they’re limiting numbers based on quarantine availablility.

    Presumably the strategy is going to have to be to vaccinate everyone before opening up, and accepting that there’s going to be a wave of sorts running through the population when they do?
    I keep getting the visit NZ tourist ads. Originally I was actually supposed to be going last year.

    Apparently if you leave NZ at the moment, Feb is the next available hotel quarantine slot.
    There’s a fair few Aussies and Kiwis sofa-surfing in my part of the world at the moment, stuck in limbo having lost jobs and finding it difficult / expensive to get back. The sad part is that many have missed funerals and weddings, not seen families for years.

    Even with their domestic economies mostly open as usual during the pandemic, inbound tourism makes up a significant part of the economies of these two countries.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 40,720
    Sandpit said:

    BBC News - New Zealand borders to remain closed for rest of the year
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-58182418

    Going to be interesting what they do next year when they open up and start to get COVID cases, as current gen of vaccines don't have high enough effectiveness to stop cases / transmission.

    No-one appears to have told their tourist board, who are still spending millions on advertising a place that’s not letting tourists in! Hell, i know a few Kiwis who are struggling to get back there, like Australia they’re limiting numbers based on quarantine availablility.

    Presumably the strategy is going to have to be to vaccinate everyone before opening up, and accepting that there’s going to be a wave of sorts running through the population when they do?
    Sandpit said:

    BBC News - New Zealand borders to remain closed for rest of the year
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-58182418

    Going to be interesting what they do next year when they open up and start to get COVID cases, as current gen of vaccines don't have high enough effectiveness to stop cases / transmission.

    No-one appears to have told their tourist board, who are still spending millions on advertising a place that’s not letting tourists in! Hell, i know a few Kiwis who are struggling to get back there, like Australia they’re limiting numbers based on quarantine availablility.

    Presumably the strategy is going to have to be to vaccinate everyone before opening up, and accepting that there’s going to be a wave of sorts running through the population when they do?
    New Zealand is even worse than Oz, because at least with Australia, you can pay up to get in. With NZ, they are booked up until next March.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 34,117

    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    ‘Blood clots after Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine rare but devastating’

    A breakthrough study lead by scientists in Oxford has revealed 'devastating' findings on blood clotting in some adults after Covid-19 vaccination.

    … the overall mortality rate of patients with VITT was 23 per cent.

    … "In those aged under 50, incidence is around one in 50,000 people who have received the vaccine. But our study shows that for those who develop VITT, it can be devastating. It often affects young, otherwise healthy vaccine recipients and has high mortality.

    … Some 85 per cent of the patients studied were under the age of 60, despite most of the elderly population having been vaccinated.

    Almost all of those presenting to hospital experienced the condition between five and 30 days after their first vaccination with the Oxford AstraZeneca vaccine.

    https://www.oxfordmail.co.uk/news/19506046.blood-clots-oxford-astrazeneca-vaccine-rare-devastating/

    Messy reporting. Why is one number per 50,000 and the other per 100? The incidence rate is in under 50s but the death rate is in a sample where 15% are above 60. This cashes out as: your chances of dying, as an under 50 year old, are very significantly less than .00046% or 1 in 217,000 (assuming greater lethality among older populations). Wow.
    Take it up with Dr Sue Pavord of Oxford University Hospitals (OUH) NHS Foundation Trust and/or the New England Journal of Medicine. The Oxford Mail is simply summarising their presentations.
    No issue with Pavord, because it is possible to work out from what she is saying, what she is actually saying. It is the paper which has failed to state the position as per my previous post. If I can, they should be able to.
    I long ago realised that journalists don’t work like that. They are lazy, and will simply copy and paste from source material, eg press releases. Then tweak a bit. Getting out a calculator is too much like hard work, and what if they do the sum wrong? How embarrassing.
    We don't have journalists now, we have reporters who only pass on propaganda handed to them.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 11,532
    DavidL said:

    No, the pension will not be increased by 8%, this would be totally unacceptable when there are going to be a raft of industrial disputes across the public sector where staff are being offered a small fraction of that or nothing at all. Whilst I take @StuartDickson's point that our state pension is low compared to many other countries fixing this simply cannot be the priority at the moment. I would expect an increase of 3-4%, generous but not ridiculous.

    Several Tories very confident in their government doing the right and sensible thing on the triple lock. Hope they are correct but not sure where that confidence comes from.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 10,198
    IshmaelZ said:

    Sandpit said:

    One for John Rentoul’s QTWTAIN series.

    No, the Chancellor isn’t going to increase pensions by 8%.

    But Yes, he is going to brief off the record that he really really wanted to and Johnson overruled him.
    Rishi Sunak needs to be careful here, with a view to entering Number 10, and make sure he does not become the Tories' Nick Clegg. He has already ditched one manifesto pledge (on foreign aid); to ditch two looks like carelessness.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 56,949
    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. JohnL, he can, however, claim extenuating circumstances legitimately.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 39,648
    malcolmg said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    ‘Blood clots after Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine rare but devastating’

    A breakthrough study lead by scientists in Oxford has revealed 'devastating' findings on blood clotting in some adults after Covid-19 vaccination.

    … the overall mortality rate of patients with VITT was 23 per cent.

    … "In those aged under 50, incidence is around one in 50,000 people who have received the vaccine. But our study shows that for those who develop VITT, it can be devastating. It often affects young, otherwise healthy vaccine recipients and has high mortality.

    … Some 85 per cent of the patients studied were under the age of 60, despite most of the elderly population having been vaccinated.

    Almost all of those presenting to hospital experienced the condition between five and 30 days after their first vaccination with the Oxford AstraZeneca vaccine.

    https://www.oxfordmail.co.uk/news/19506046.blood-clots-oxford-astrazeneca-vaccine-rare-devastating/

    Messy reporting. Why is one number per 50,000 and the other per 100? The incidence rate is in under 50s but the death rate is in a sample where 15% are above 60. This cashes out as: your chances of dying, as an under 50 year old, are very significantly less than .00046% or 1 in 217,000 (assuming greater lethality among older populations). Wow.
    Take it up with Dr Sue Pavord of Oxford University Hospitals (OUH) NHS Foundation Trust and/or the New England Journal of Medicine. The Oxford Mail is simply summarising their presentations.
    No issue with Pavord, because it is possible to work out from what she is saying, what she is actually saying. It is the paper which has failed to state the position as per my previous post. If I can, they should be able to.
    I long ago realised that journalists don’t work like that. They are lazy, and will simply copy and paste from source material, eg press releases. Then tweak a bit. Getting out a calculator is too much like hard work, and what if they do the sum wrong? How embarrassing.
    We don't have journalists now, we have reporters who only pass on propaganda handed to them.
    Whilst this is largely true Malcolm I am not sure that it is their fault. Proper journalists had genuine knowledge of their field, they ideally had some practical experience, they knew who were reliable sources of information and who were not and they could identify when they were being spun a line. The problem is that someone so narrowly focused is unlikely to make a living in the current media where there is a need for constant output with a very small return per piece. There is also the problem that knowing a fair bit about your material makes you realise that most stories are not as exciting as they first appear.

    The Times still has some proper journalists like this. The FT also, in a narrower field. No one else has the money to maintain them. Free internet news has had some upsides but there are downsides too.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 15,832
    DavidL said:

    The Times still has some proper journalists like this.

    I refer you to Iain Martin in the Times.

    Last week's column was "Brexit, way more shit than I thought it would be"

    Today's column, "BoZo, he's a bit crap, isn't he"

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 26,805
    An 8% rise for pensioners, but zero for police and teachers, amongst others? No way is that justifiable, with harsh austerity on its way. It is obscene.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,186

    DavidL said:

    No, the pension will not be increased by 8%, this would be totally unacceptable when there are going to be a raft of industrial disputes across the public sector where staff are being offered a small fraction of that or nothing at all. Whilst I take @StuartDickson's point that our state pension is low compared to many other countries fixing this simply cannot be the priority at the moment. I would expect an increase of 3-4%, generous but not ridiculous.

    Several Tories very confident in their government doing the right and sensible thing on the triple lock. Hope they are correct but not sure where that confidence comes from.
    Because even the blue-rinse end of the membership know that it’s not the right thing to do, when the numbers come from a statistical quirk associated with a pandemic. It would also go down like the proverbial cup of cold sick in the Red Wall seats if accompanied by tax rises on working people.

    They’ll likely find a way to fudge the average earnings figures, to take out the pandemic factor and leave a more reasonable number.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,186
    Scott_xP said:

    DavidL said:

    The Times still has some proper journalists like this.

    I refer you to Iain Martin in the Times.

    Last week's column was "Brexit, way more shit than I thought it would be"

    Today's column, "BoZo, he's a bit crap, isn't he"

    Polemicists are not journalists.

    The former make up their own crap, the latter regurgitate the crap that someone else told them.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 39,648
    Scott_xP said:

    DavidL said:

    The Times still has some proper journalists like this.

    I refer you to Iain Martin in the Times.

    Last week's column was "Brexit, way more shit than I thought it would be"

    Today's column, "BoZo, he's a bit crap, isn't he"

    Even good papers have to pander to the prejudices of their readership and our remainer dominated institutions still can't get over the fact that for the first time in forever they did not get their own way.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 39,648

    DavidL said:

    No, the pension will not be increased by 8%, this would be totally unacceptable when there are going to be a raft of industrial disputes across the public sector where staff are being offered a small fraction of that or nothing at all. Whilst I take @StuartDickson's point that our state pension is low compared to many other countries fixing this simply cannot be the priority at the moment. I would expect an increase of 3-4%, generous but not ridiculous.

    Several Tories very confident in their government doing the right and sensible thing on the triple lock. Hope they are correct but not sure where that confidence comes from.
    I have no secret sources of information. I can count.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 15,832
    DavidL said:

    remainer dominated institutions

    Martin was a chief cheerleader for Brexit. Even the worms are turning
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 64,643
    edited August 12
    I am surprised the Al-Jazeera investigation into corruption in football club ownership hasn't got any traction (especially after all the super league stuff). That was a rare piece of old school journalism spanning a number of months taking the story where ever it went.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 193
    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:

    DavidL said:

    The Times still has some proper journalists like this.

    I refer you to Iain Martin in the Times.

    Last week's column was "Brexit, way more shit than I thought it would be"

    Today's column, "BoZo, he's a bit crap, isn't he"

    Even good papers have to pander to the prejudices of their readership and our remainer dominated institutions still can't get over the fact that for the first time in forever they did not get their own way.
    It's not really that though, is it?

    Whatever political spin you try to apply, Brexit isn't going well from an economic point of view.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 64,643
    BBC News - UK economy grows 4.8% as Covid restrictions ease
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-58183519
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 193
    Foxy said:

    An 8% rise for pensioners, but zero for police and teachers, amongst others? No way is that justifiable, with harsh austerity on its way. It is obscene.

    It's good to see a lot of Conservatives baulking at this. The triple lock is generally pretty crazy really, isn't it? But right now it would be total madness.

    We are just about to see the universal credit boost removed which may seem like a little thing but is going down badly in red wall seats. If pensioners were to get 8% at the same time it would go down even worse. And as you say, there are a lot of other issues brewing.

    The fact is that covid has cost us dearly and we're not through yet. There will have to be austerity, however much Boris wants to wave the Gov't credit card.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 21,576
    Delta rapidly going through Israel's religious nutters:

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/israel/

    And has also reached the Balkans and Baltics.

    Bulgaria is the country to watch with its very low vaccination rate:

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/bulgaria/

    Its already suffering daily deaths proportionally higher than the UK and has the equivalent of 12k currently in hospital:

    https://coronavirus.bg/
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,186
    edited August 12

    I am surprised the Al-Jazeera investigation into corruption in football club ownership hasn't got any traction (especially after all the super league stuff). That was a rare piece of old school journalism spanning a number of months taking the story where ever it went.

    Indeed, that should have been a much bigger story than it was. Possibly the best piece of old-school journalism since MPs Expenses, and requing a serious amount of time and effort to get where they did.

    Perhaps that it wasn’t done by a major newspaper or broadcaster limited its reach. BBC and Sky are not going to spend weeks covering a competitor’s story.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 42,181
    Foxy said:

    An 8% rise for pensioners, but zero for police and teachers, amongst others? No way is that justifiable, with harsh austerity on its way. It is obscene.

    Might even lead to strike action, particularly given the vast amount of extra work frontline public workers have had to do this year for no extra pay.

    But the real reason why the government shouldn’t do it is because it would be totally incompatible with and an absolute insult in light of their decision to cut universal credit.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 88,965
    The problem is the triple lock was a manifesto commitment and there is some evidence scrapping it would cost the Tories votes.

    A poll a few years ago found scrapping it would see over a third of pensioners be less likely to vote Tory
    https://www.ftadviser.com/state-pension/2017/04/24/scrapping-triple-lock-would-cost-votes-poll-finds/
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 21,576
    Nigelb said:

    In #Russia, the number of officially reported #COVID19 deaths has been hovering just below the 800 per day mark for weeks.

    Such consistency is statistically improbable:

    https://twitter.com/AlexKokcharov/status/1425055635041886222

    Improbable is generous.
    Of course the rest of us aren’t perfect either, but this is absurd.

    Pointed out on PB over a week ago.

    Why Putin decided that 800 is the number which must not be reached is the mystery.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 26,805
    malcolmg said:

    Fishing said:

    I'm not sure it'll be as damaging as people think, politically speaking, just because it's so difficult to justify an 8% increase for the old at a time when the young are getting completely screwed.

    The Triple Lock, like the FTPA and so much else the Heir to Blair did is long overdue for the scrapheap.

    The young are just greedy whiney no marks. Get out and work like the pensioners did and earn your own money. A days work would be too much for most of the pampered jessies. Back in the day when men were men , we did not plot how to rob our granny , we got out there and worked our socks off, no handed it on a plate in those days.
    Enjoy it while it last Malc, you won't get anything near as generous in indyScotland...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 64,643
    edited August 12
    Sandpit said:

    I am surprised the Al-Jazeera investigation into corruption in football club ownership hasn't got any traction (especially after all the super league stuff). That was a rare piece of old school journalism spanning a number of months taking the story where ever it went.

    Indeed, that should have been a much bigger story than it was. Possibly the best piece of old-school journalism since MPs Expenses, and requing a serious amount of time and effort to get where they did.

    Perhaps that it wasn’t done by a major newspaper or TV show limited its reach. BBC and Sky are not going to spend weeks covering a competitor’s story.
    Perhaps, although when they did a similar investigation into cricket corruption it got some traction, even though that was less direct than this. They got a mid level guy claiming they were spot fixing, but never got higher than the go between.

    This time they have the Walter Mitty character who between all the BS has actually done what he said i.e. sold clubs / been on the board and they got him to follow through with arranging the Derby County introduction. Then obviously it took the left turn of how to hide your dirty money, more evidence of phone hacking type behaviour being deployed, before off to Crypus to reveal how you get yourself an EU passport.

    Even though the main two chancers clearly talk a lot of BS, they also are involved in this industry and have been involved in similar previous connects.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 88,965

    Keep the triple lock. The UK state pension is already the worst in the developed world.

    The UK state pension comes bottom in a league table of net replacement rates for average earnings at just 28 per cent, according to an influential global pensions report by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.

    This compares with a 59 per cent average across the 36 members of the international organisation of rich democratic countries analysed in its latest report

    https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2021/07/19/15/45490449-9803095-_Source_OECD_-a-22_1626706388588.jpg

    Including private pensions however the UK has an average pension higher than Spain and the same as in Germany

    https://fullfact.org/europe/pensioners-eu-uk/
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 193
    edited August 12
    HYUFD said:

    The problem is the triple lock was a manifesto commitment and there is some evidence scrapping it would cost the Tories votes.

    A poll a few years ago found scrapping it would see over a third of pensioners be less likely to vote Tory
    https://www.ftadviser.com/state-pension/2017/04/24/scrapping-triple-lock-would-cost-votes-poll-finds/

    It's such a crazy situation. It's obvious to most everyone that we cannot afford an 8% rise under normal circumstances and certainly not right now courtesy of covid.

    Surely they just have to be courageous and spell that out?

    In days of yore, midterm austerity was a known thing. Then, about 8 months before the General Election, sweeteners return. Why can't the tories just do that?!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 42,181
    HYUFD said:

    The problem is the triple lock was a manifesto commitment and there is some evidence scrapping it would cost the Tories votes.

    A poll a few years ago found scrapping it would see over a third of pensioners be less likely to vote Tory
    https://www.ftadviser.com/state-pension/2017/04/24/scrapping-triple-lock-would-cost-votes-poll-finds/

    It was a reasonable manifesto commitment when everyone thought all three parts of it would fall between 2 and 4% and everyone was committed to trying to improve pensions in light of the wilderness Brown left.

    It isn’t defensible in these circumstances. Nobody has had it easy in the pandemic but for pensioners to profit from it while people lose jobs, going onto universal credit (where a temporary uplift is to be removed) and/or have pay frozen would be outrageous and indefensible.

    Doesn’t mean Johnson won’t do it, of course.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,186
    edited August 12
    HYUFD said:

    The problem is the triple lock was a manifesto commitment and there is some evidence scrapping it would cost the Tories votes.

    A poll a few years ago found scrapping it would see over a third of pensioners be less likely to vote Tory
    https://www.ftadviser.com/state-pension/2017/04/24/scrapping-triple-lock-would-cost-votes-poll-finds/

    It’s not the principal of the Triple Lock, it’s the fluke that a sharp recovery from a pandemic-induced recession produces an otherwise irrational number in the calculations.

    Finding a way to fudge the numbers, also makes it much easier to face down public sector Union demands for pay rises, which apart from healthcare workers will be unpopular in a period of genuine austerity.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 13,009
    Foxy said:

    An 8% rise for pensioners, but zero for police and teachers, amongst others? No way is that justifiable, with harsh austerity on its way. It is obscene.

    The comms will be interesting. We absolutely should maintain the triple lock because UK pensions are shit. 8% for Pensioners is only "obscene" because of the crushing austerity being imposed everywhere else.

    Right here right now there are oceans of free money that can be printed out of the air and handed out to Tory friends donors and target voters. So it isn't "we can't afford" to give Pensioners 8% and a pay rise to the police, teachers, nurses etc etc. Its that the Tories won't. You only get a pay rise if you are a Tory applying to your mates for a 9 figure PPE contract where you don't have to actually deliver any PPE.

    Even if they cut the pension rise to the 3% that is suggested it will still be more than so many others, and contrasts to the coming cut in UC. Hard for them to say "tough choices have to be made" when handing out the billions to themselves.

    Of course the people being reamed hardest by this will display their outrage by voting Tory.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 88,965

    Prince Andrew: Refusal to talk to Epstein investigators ‘straining relations between UK and America’

    … the lack of information-sharing had caused diplomatic strain, with US law enforcement and diplomats raising the matter with their British counterparts.

    The lack of cooperation now spans three years of reported attempts by the US authorities to gather facts from the royal who, in a statement from 2019, said he would be willing to help US law-enforcement with investigations. However, in January last year, Manhattan US attorney Geoffrey Berman said the country’s authorities had received “zero cooperation” from the prince…

    Of particular interest to the US authorities is how money transfers may be linked to the movement of young women and girls. The various interested bodies, including the FBI, believe these may offer insights into ongoing organised criminal operations.

    The authorities’ interests are understood to include multiple trips by the royal to Epstein’s Caribbean island, Little St James, as well as Florida and New York. Last year, prosecutors in the US Virgin Islands, which includes Little St James, alleged Mr Epstein abused hundreds of young women and girls up until 2018.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/prince-andrew-america-epstein-probes-cooperation-b1900854.html?amp

    Given the US refuse to hand over Anne Sacoolas tough. Biden is hardly doing a great deal to defend international security at the moment anyway nor has he or the Democrats in Congress ever been that interested in prioritising a UK trade deal either.

    Perhaps they could also look a bit more into Bill Clinton and Bill Gates' links to Epstein before lecturing us

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/lisettevoytko/2020/08/18/photos-allegedly-show-bill-clinton-receiving-massage-from-jeffrey-epstein-accuser/

    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/12/business/jeffrey-epstein-bill-gates.html
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 43,597
    "There is now growing speculation that [Andrew] Neil will never return to the airwaves [of GB News] amid rumours of a bitter rift with his chief executive, Angelos Frangopoulos, who is thought to be keen to remodel the channel along the lines of opinionated US television."

    Telegraph.

    Who could have predicted this outcome?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,186
    edited August 12
    HYUFD said:

    Prince Andrew: Refusal to talk to Epstein investigators ‘straining relations between UK and America’

    … the lack of information-sharing had caused diplomatic strain, with US law enforcement and diplomats raising the matter with their British counterparts.

    The lack of cooperation now spans three years of reported attempts by the US authorities to gather facts from the royal who, in a statement from 2019, said he would be willing to help US law-enforcement with investigations. However, in January last year, Manhattan US attorney Geoffrey Berman said the country’s authorities had received “zero cooperation” from the prince…

    Of particular interest to the US authorities is how money transfers may be linked to the movement of young women and girls. The various interested bodies, including the FBI, believe these may offer insights into ongoing organised criminal operations.

    The authorities’ interests are understood to include multiple trips by the royal to Epstein’s Caribbean island, Little St James, as well as Florida and New York. Last year, prosecutors in the US Virgin Islands, which includes Little St James, alleged Mr Epstein abused hundreds of young women and girls up until 2018.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/prince-andrew-america-epstein-probes-cooperation-b1900854.html?amp

    Given the US refuse to hand over Anne Sacoolas tough. Biden is hardly doing a great deal to defend international security at the moment anyway nor has he or the Democrats in Congress ever been that interested in prioritising a UK trade deal either.

    Perhaps they could also look a bit more into Bill Clinton and Bill Gates' links to Epstein before lecturing us

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/lisettevoytko/2020/08/18/photos-allegedly-show-bill-clinton-receiving-massage-from-jeffrey-epstein-accuser/

    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/12/business/jeffrey-epstein-bill-gates.html
    Meanwhile, the US Department of Justice was in the High Court in London yesterday, trying again to get their hands on Assange.

    https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/status/1425451412436172806
  • So Sunak may

    1) Give pensioners a 8% increase

    2) Give NHS staff only a 3% increase

    and

    3) End the UC uplift

    Yeah, if you've not traded out the 250/1 bet on Sunak you should do so now.

    Perhaps that is Boris Johnson's masterplan, make Sunak so unpopular they won't replace him with Rishi.

    Also I think the optics of Sunak's family wealth will make 2 and 3 look even worse.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 33,226
    DavidL said:

    malcolmg said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    ‘Blood clots after Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine rare but devastating’

    A breakthrough study lead by scientists in Oxford has revealed 'devastating' findings on blood clotting in some adults after Covid-19 vaccination.

    … the overall mortality rate of patients with VITT was 23 per cent.

    … "In those aged under 50, incidence is around one in 50,000 people who have received the vaccine. But our study shows that for those who develop VITT, it can be devastating. It often affects young, otherwise healthy vaccine recipients and has high mortality.

    … Some 85 per cent of the patients studied were under the age of 60, despite most of the elderly population having been vaccinated.

    Almost all of those presenting to hospital experienced the condition between five and 30 days after their first vaccination with the Oxford AstraZeneca vaccine.

    https://www.oxfordmail.co.uk/news/19506046.blood-clots-oxford-astrazeneca-vaccine-rare-devastating/

    Messy reporting. Why is one number per 50,000 and the other per 100? The incidence rate is in under 50s but the death rate is in a sample where 15% are above 60. This cashes out as: your chances of dying, as an under 50 year old, are very significantly less than .00046% or 1 in 217,000 (assuming greater lethality among older populations). Wow.
    Take it up with Dr Sue Pavord of Oxford University Hospitals (OUH) NHS Foundation Trust and/or the New England Journal of Medicine. The Oxford Mail is simply summarising their presentations.
    No issue with Pavord, because it is possible to work out from what she is saying, what she is actually saying. It is the paper which has failed to state the position as per my previous post. If I can, they should be able to.
    I long ago realised that journalists don’t work like that. They are lazy, and will simply copy and paste from source material, eg press releases. Then tweak a bit. Getting out a calculator is too much like hard work, and what if they do the sum wrong? How embarrassing.
    We don't have journalists now, we have reporters who only pass on propaganda handed to them.
    Whilst this is largely true Malcolm I am not sure that it is their fault. Proper journalists had genuine knowledge of their field, they ideally had some practical experience, they knew who were reliable sources of information and who were not and they could identify when they were being spun a line. The problem is that someone so narrowly focused is unlikely to make a living in the current media where there is a need for constant output with a very small return per piece. There is also the problem that knowing a fair bit about your material makes you realise that most stories are not as exciting as they first appear.

    The Times still has some proper journalists like this. The FT also, in a narrower field. No one else has the money to maintain them. Free internet news has had some upsides but there are downsides too.
    As with most categories of human endeavour (probably including our own comments here), Sturgeon's Law tends to apply.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 26,805

    Foxy said:

    An 8% rise for pensioners, but zero for police and teachers, amongst others? No way is that justifiable, with harsh austerity on its way. It is obscene.

    The comms will be interesting. We absolutely should maintain the triple lock because UK pensions are shit. 8% for Pensioners is only "obscene" because of the crushing austerity being imposed everywhere else.

    Right here right now there are oceans of free money that can be printed out of the air and handed out to Tory friends donors and target voters. So it isn't "we can't afford" to give Pensioners 8% and a pay rise to the police, teachers, nurses etc etc. Its that the Tories won't. You only get a pay rise if you are a Tory applying to your mates for a 9 figure PPE contract where you don't have to actually deliver any PPE.

    Even if they cut the pension rise to the 3% that is suggested it will still be more than so many others, and contrasts to the coming cut in UC. Hard for them to say "tough choices have to be made" when handing out the billions to themselves.

    Of course the people being reamed hardest by this will display their outrage by voting Tory.
    Nothing that a little hair ruffling and hi viz jacket couldn't smooth over. The Red Wall love that sort of stuff.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 42,181
    edited August 12

    So Sunak may

    1) Give pensioners a 8% increase

    2) Give NHS staff only a 3% increase

    and

    3) End the UC uplift

    Yeah, if you've not traded out the 250/1 bet on Sunak you should do so now.

    Perhaps that is Boris Johnson's masterplan, make Sunak so unpopular they won't replace him with Rishi.

    Also I think the optics of Sunak's family wealth will make 2 and 3 look even worse.

    You missed out (4) - pay freeze for the rest of the public sector.

    Although that’s actually not necessarily a stupid idea, it would rather confirm the Tories are as bad as New Labour in lavishly helping those client base (pensioners who use the NHS) while repeatedly shitting on everyone else.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,186
    Assuming there’s not an 8% rise in pensions proposed by the government, how do the Opposition react?

    Is Starmer going to be be saying that of course pensioners deserve 8%, I don’t think he is…
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 33,226

    So Sunak may

    1) Give pensioners a 8% increase

    2) Give NHS staff only a 3% increase

    and

    3) End the UC uplift

    Yeah, if you've not traded out the 250/1 bet on Sunak you should do so now.

    Perhaps that is Boris Johnson's masterplan, make Sunak so unpopular they won't replace him with Rishi.

    Also I think the optics of Sunak's family wealth will make 2 and 3 look even worse.

    It might still be a winner, of course. But the current odds are no longer value at all.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 64,643
    edited August 12
    Would it really that controversial if the government said due to this totally abnormal once in a generation circumstances, like foreign aid, the uplift is being capped at 3% for this year?

    Would oldies really be that pissed off? Given they all got jabbed efficiency, they obviously can see they didn't have to endure being furloughed / losing their job / having to miss school, uni, college etc etc etc.

    Especially if it is spun as that allows us to give 3% to NHS staff.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 42,181
    edited August 12
    Sandpit said:

    Assuming there’s not an 8% rise in pensions proposed by the government, how do the Opposition react?

    Is Starmer going to be be saying that of course pensioners deserve 8%, I don’t think he is…

    What he should say is that this shows our whole benefits system is a shambles and the Tory tinkering at the edges under IDS has made things worse, not better. This would have the helpful bonus of being true.

    Then see if he can’t come up with some solid proposals for fundamental reform. Now *that* might be a winner.

    How he could do it without bankrupting the Treasury is a different question.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 193

    "There is now growing speculation that [Andrew] Neil will never return to the airwaves [of GB News] amid rumours of a bitter rift with his chief executive, Angelos Frangopoulos, who is thought to be keen to remodel the channel along the lines of opinionated US television."

    Telegraph.

    Who could have predicted this outcome?

    Although Brexit may have demonstrated something contrary, I think we make a huge mistake in thinking the UK and US align politically. Angelos Frangopoulos has spent very little time in the UK and whilst he might get GB News firing up a few on the right I think it will remain much more fringe than Fox US.

    Not even Nigel Farage as a main presenter will fix the problem.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 33,226

    Nigelb said:

    In #Russia, the number of officially reported #COVID19 deaths has been hovering just below the 800 per day mark for weeks.

    Such consistency is statistically improbable:

    https://twitter.com/AlexKokcharov/status/1425055635041886222

    Improbable is generous.
    Of course the rest of us aren’t perfect either, but this is absurd.

    Pointed out on PB over a week ago.

    Why Putin decided that 800 is the number which must not be reached is the mystery.
    I missed it.
    There's another week's data though. :smile:
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,498

    BBC News - UK economy grows 4.8% as Covid restrictions ease
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-58183519

    "UK economic growth rose by 4.8% between April and June, according to official figures, as most businesses emerged from lockdown.
    ......

    However, the figure was slightly below the 5% the Bank of England expected."

    BBC always there for the angle to piss on the Governments chips!
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 30,984
    I love it when one ONS series disagrees with another one.

    Quarterly GDP growth of 4.8%, which is great news and on that measure the UK is still 4.4% behind Feb 2020. Monthly GDP growth of 1% in June and on that measure we're just 2.2% behind Feb 2020.

    The latter figure is closer to reality. I think the August data (October release) will show we're back to where we were in Feb 2020. I think September and October will also be pretty strong but the catch up element will be around half of what we would have otherwise had. If we get all 18 months worth of lost GDP back it would be quite something. A few of my colleagues think it's possible as long as the government hold firm on no more lockdowns.

    To get to where we would otherwise have been had the virus not happened the index will need to hit about 103.2 by the end of the year. It's currently at 97.8, to my mind anything up to 102 on the index should be easy enough from unlockdown euphoria. Above that will be difficult.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 64,643

    BBC News - UK economy grows 4.8% as Covid restrictions ease
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-58183519

    "UK economic growth rose by 4.8% between April and June, according to official figures, as most businesses emerged from lockdown.
    ......

    However, the figure was slightly below the 5% the Bank of England expected."

    BBC always there for the angle to piss on the Governments chips!
    Totally unsurprising. If it was 10% they would find somebody who says its still poor or we have found another country that was higher.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 21,536

    BBC News - UK economy grows 4.8% as Covid restrictions ease
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-58183519

    "UK economic growth rose by 4.8% between April and June, according to official figures, as most businesses emerged from lockdown.
    ......

    However, the figure was slightly below the 5% the Bank of England expected."

    BBC always there for the angle to piss on the Governments chips!
    and since our stats always under report first time round there will be a revision on construction and hey presto it will start with a 5
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 193

    Foxy said:

    An 8% rise for pensioners, but zero for police and teachers, amongst others? No way is that justifiable, with harsh austerity on its way. It is obscene.

    Right here right now there are oceans of free money that can be printed out of the air and handed out to Tory friends donors and target voters. So it isn't "we can't afford" to give Pensioners 8% and a pay rise to the police, teachers, nurses etc etc. Its that the Tories won't.

    Straight out of the Dennis Healey manual of public finance. You know, the one which meant the IMF had to enter Britain and bail us out.

    I don't even think you were joking.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 42,181
    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Prince Andrew: Refusal to talk to Epstein investigators ‘straining relations between UK and America’

    … the lack of information-sharing had caused diplomatic strain, with US law enforcement and diplomats raising the matter with their British counterparts.

    The lack of cooperation now spans three years of reported attempts by the US authorities to gather facts from the royal who, in a statement from 2019, said he would be willing to help US law-enforcement with investigations. However, in January last year, Manhattan US attorney Geoffrey Berman said the country’s authorities had received “zero cooperation” from the prince…

    Of particular interest to the US authorities is how money transfers may be linked to the movement of young women and girls. The various interested bodies, including the FBI, believe these may offer insights into ongoing organised criminal operations.

    The authorities’ interests are understood to include multiple trips by the royal to Epstein’s Caribbean island, Little St James, as well as Florida and New York. Last year, prosecutors in the US Virgin Islands, which includes Little St James, alleged Mr Epstein abused hundreds of young women and girls up until 2018.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/prince-andrew-america-epstein-probes-cooperation-b1900854.html?amp

    Given the US refuse to hand over Anne Sacoolas tough. Biden is hardly doing a great deal to defend international security at the moment anyway nor has he or the Democrats in Congress ever been that interested in prioritising a UK trade deal either.

    Perhaps they could also look a bit more into Bill Clinton and Bill Gates' links to Epstein before lecturing us

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/lisettevoytko/2020/08/18/photos-allegedly-show-bill-clinton-receiving-massage-from-jeffrey-epstein-accuser/

    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/12/business/jeffrey-epstein-bill-gates.html
    Meanwhile, the US Department of Justice was in the High Court in London yesterday, trying again to get their hands on Assange.

    https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/status/1425451412436172806
    I hope they do, actually.

    It was pretty outrageous that the judge said, in effect, ‘he’s guilty as fuck and should be handed over but because he keeps saying he might kill himself I won’t do it.’ What sort of message does that send?

    Leaving aside the fact that he’s a creep, a liar, a thief and by all accounts a pretty nasty piece of work.

    I must admit though I still find it ironic that he’s now spent longer under detention and is at far greater risk of going to the US to face trial than if he had gone to Sweden to be questioned, been charged, convicted, imprisoned and deported to Australia.

    Karma’s a bitch.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 42,181

    BBC News - UK economy grows 4.8% as Covid restrictions ease
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-58183519

    "UK economic growth rose by 4.8% between April and June, according to official figures, as most businesses emerged from lockdown.
    ......

    However, the figure was slightly below the 5% the Bank of England expected."

    BBC always there for the angle to piss on the Governments chips!
    and since our stats always under report first time round there will be a revision on construction and hey presto it will start with a 5
    They just build up to the figure on construction.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 193
    edited August 12
    TSE makes a really good point about Rishi Sunak. He can't both go on being intensely popular AND fiscally responsible.

    The fact is that even with a surge of economic output public finance needs to tighten its belt. At the moment this Conservative Government resembles a wild leftwing Labour one when it comes to public spending.

    There's plenty of evidence that Sunak likes to preen himself for his fans although rather less cravenly than Boris Johnson. However, with Boris Johnson by instinct a reckless spendthrift, someone in Government is going to have to rein this in.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 64,643
    Heathener said:

    TSE makes a really good point about Rishi Sunak. He can't both go on being intensely popular AND fiscally responsible.

    The fact is that even with a surge of economic output public finance needs to tighten its belt. At the moment this Conservative Government resembles a wild leftwing Labour one when it comes to public spending.

    There's plenty of evidence that Sunak likes to preen himself for his fans although rather less cravenly than Boris Johnson. However, with Boris Johnson by instinct a reckless spendthrift, someone in Government is going to have to rein this in.

    I can see them continuing to splurge (claim lots of cheap money and following the US) and then call a GE 2023 before they have to turn off the taps.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 26,805
    Heathener said:

    TSE makes a really good point about Rishi Sunak. He can't both go on being intensely popular AND fiscally responsible.

    The fact is that even with a surge of economic output public finance needs to tighten its belt. At the moment this Conservative Government resembles a wild leftwing Labour one when it comes to public spending.

    There's plenty of evidence that Sunak likes to preen himself for his fans although rather less cravenly than Boris Johnson. However, with Boris Johnson by instinct a reckless spendthrift, someone in Government is going to have to rein this in.

    It does show that massive government spending "grows GDP". All hail the MMT.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 8,877
    Keir of course needs to back the triple lock in full, given how poor the U.K. pension is compared with other countries.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 42,181
    edited August 12

    Heathener said:

    TSE makes a really good point about Rishi Sunak. He can't both go on being intensely popular AND fiscally responsible.

    The fact is that even with a surge of economic output public finance needs to tighten its belt. At the moment this Conservative Government resembles a wild leftwing Labour one when it comes to public spending.

    There's plenty of evidence that Sunak likes to preen himself for his fans although rather less cravenly than Boris Johnson. However, with Boris Johnson by instinct a reckless spendthrift, someone in Government is going to have to rein this in.

    I can see them continuing to splurge (claim lots of cheap money and following the US) and then call a GE 2023 before they have to turn off the taps.
    That would be politically unwise. Much better to call the general election shortly after you’ve turned off the taps so you lose, but by a narrow margin and then the Opposition have to deal with your mess.

    If John Major had lost the 1992 election by five or six seats, he would have been back in power with a thumping majority by 1994 and set for ten years.

    His win, however was...counterproductive.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 193
    edited August 12

    Heathener said:

    TSE makes a really good point about Rishi Sunak. He can't both go on being intensely popular AND fiscally responsible.

    The fact is that even with a surge of economic output public finance needs to tighten its belt. At the moment this Conservative Government resembles a wild leftwing Labour one when it comes to public spending.

    There's plenty of evidence that Sunak likes to preen himself for his fans although rather less cravenly than Boris Johnson. However, with Boris Johnson by instinct a reckless spendthrift, someone in Government is going to have to rein this in.

    I can see them continuing to splurge (claim lots of cheap money and following the US) and then call a GE 2023 before they have to turn off the taps.
    Good point. But, boy, will we hit trouble from 2024 onwards if they do go down that route. They might get away with it. A lot of voters are only concerned with whether they have jam for tea today.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 64,643
    edited August 12
    Sandpit said:

    Heathener said:

    "There is now growing speculation that [Andrew] Neil will never return to the airwaves [of GB News] amid rumours of a bitter rift with his chief executive, Angelos Frangopoulos, who is thought to be keen to remodel the channel along the lines of opinionated US television."

    Telegraph.

    Who could have predicted this outcome?

    Although Brexit may have demonstrated something contrary, I think we make a huge mistake in thinking the UK and US align politically. Angelos Frangopoulos has spent very little time in the UK and whilst he might get GB News firing up a few on the right I think it will remain much more fringe than Fox US.

    Not even Nigel Farage as a main presenter will fix the problem.
    Fox News in the US has a unique business model that really can’t be replicated elsewhere. They operate in a very loosely-regulated environment, and as part of a larger media conglomerate can insist on selling it as part of millions of cable subscriptions.

    GB News are relying purely on advertising revenue, and anything too controversial will earn the attention of OFCOM. During an election campaign they will have to be studiously impartial. It’s an uphill task for them - not helped by launching early, before they’d sorted out the studio. I still wish them luck though, they do fill a gap in the market and present points of view not seen on other media.
    Also there is a category of "news-tainment" in the US. Fox, CNN, MSNBC all get millions of viewers. That is never the case here. Sky news gets bugger all viewers. BBC News channel is still small audience and even when they tried mainstream newstainment Victoria Derbyshire Show, vieweing figures were rubbish.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,186
    MaxPB said:

    I love it when one ONS series disagrees with another one.

    Quarterly GDP growth of 4.8%, which is great news and on that measure the UK is still 4.4% behind Feb 2020. Monthly GDP growth of 1% in June and on that measure we're just 2.2% behind Feb 2020.

    The latter figure is closer to reality. I think the August data (October release) will show we're back to where we were in Feb 2020. I think September and October will also be pretty strong but the catch up element will be around half of what we would have otherwise had. If we get all 18 months worth of lost GDP back it would be quite something. A few of my colleagues think it's possible as long as the government hold firm on no more lockdowns.

    To get to where we would otherwise have been had the virus not happened the index will need to hit about 103.2 by the end of the year. It's currently at 97.8, to my mind anything up to 102 on the index should be easy enough from unlockdown euphoria. Above that will be difficult.

    The impact of the census data on the GDP/capita figures is going to be interesting. There’s a feeling that there might be a drop of a million in the denominator, which makes the recovery even more astonishing.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 10,198

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. JohnL, he can, however, claim extenuating circumstances legitimately.

    So could Nick Clegg and after the following election, LibDem MPs could share a taxi to Westminster.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 4,041

    BBC News - UK economy grows 4.8% as Covid restrictions ease
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-58183519

    "UK economic growth rose by 4.8% between April and June, according to official figures, as most businesses emerged from lockdown.
    ......

    However, the figure was slightly below the 5% the Bank of England expected."

    BBC always there for the angle to piss on the Governments chips!
    The BBC said a lot, lot more than that? Do you not want them to report that fact? Would you like to be the censor who cuts out bits you don't want people to hear? Do you only hear the bits that confirms your view of BBC bias?

This discussion has been closed.