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Is Sunak going to give state pensioners an 8% increase? – politicalbetting.com

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    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Fishing said:

    I'm not sure it'll be as damaging as people think, politically speaking, just because it's so difficult to justify an 8% increase for the old at a time when the young are getting completely screwed.

    The Triple Lock, like the FTPA and so much else the Heir to Blair did is long overdue for the scrapheap.

    This is the problem with Tories: you are so inconsistent. Johnson has ditched pretty much everything Cameron, Major and Thatcher ever did. The obvious conclusion is that one day a future Tory PM will ditch everything Johnson does.

    The modern iteration of the Tory party:

    - English Nationalist, not One Nation
    - Revolutionary, not Conservative
    - High tax/high debt, not Friedman
    - State control, not free market
    - Social engineering, not conservatism
    - Nasty, not paternal
    - Reactive, not confident
    - Populist, not principled
    - Clown, not competence
    - Degenerate, not moral
    - Cash for pals, not good governance
    - Fiscal spaffing, not fiscal moderation
    - Fuck business, not pro business
    - Proroguing parliament, not the rule of law
    - Lying to the monarch, not respecting institutions
    - Authoritarian, not liberal
    - Corruption, not ethics

    The only constant is the blue rosettes.
    The Conservative Party used to be one that I could disagree with but respect as a British institution. That party is gone and the thing that has replaced it has no ideology, which is really sad, to be honest.
    According to party loyalist HYUFD it has transmogrified into the English Nationalist Party. The honest thing to do would be to change the name, as that more accurately reflects the nature of the organisation. But alas honesty is not one of their core characteristics.
    The notion that the Tories are an English Nationalist Party is completely farcical. As much as I would want it to be one, it very clearly isn't.

    If the Tories were then they'd be pushing for a second Scottish independence referendum and pushing for a Yes vote in that. Is that happening? I don't think so.
    One wonders why you feel so at home as an English Nationalist and those that aren't, have resigned or been kicked out, if what you are saying is true.
    Because its not true.

    The ones who resigned or got kicked out were those who were European nationalists and couldn't cope with their grief at losing their European identity.

    England wasn't here nor there for that.
    What has Brexit got to do with European identity? Whether you like it or not, England/the UK is within the continent of Europe. We will always be European.

    Even your mate BoJo said that when the referendum result came in. Your pathetic EDL-lite style posturing shows through in this post.

    Perhaps you should ask yourself - but I am sure you don't care - why the Tory Party has abandoned so many people that voted for it for decades. And whether you think that's right.
    Your naivety is astonishing.

    What the heck has the continent of Europe got to do with being in the European Union?

    Should those in Alberta or Quebec or Jalisco be considered Americans and join the United States of America?

    That's got nothing to do with England, or EDL or anything else. If you're so childish and puerile as you consider that being in a continent means you must be part of a union then that's just farcical.

    Anyway the Tory Party has not abandoned so many that voted for it for decades. The Tory Party got more voters than it has in decades. So yes I absolutely 100% think that's right and anyone so undemocratic as to like you equate Brexit with "EDL" or English nationalism absolutely should be told to take a cold shower until they stop being so silly.
    Absolutely not a personal inference about you but did you ever take my recommendation and check out the links between Eng Nat and the far right?
    There are no links.

    Since I can't examine inside your head for what you fictionalise, I can't do much more than that.
    You've looked into it and found that there are no links? I find this hard to believe. I think you haven't looked into it.
    No, there are no links to look into.

    That's like me saying to look into the links between ASFsdnbvjisfgadf and GFDGHSUIGSFcassd. Are you going to do that? Or are you going to dismiss it as gibberish?
    That's a rather silly response. But, ok, if you want to stay in blissful ignorance about the seamy end of Eng Nat, pretend it's not there, that's your prerogative. I can't force you to take a look at it. I'm a bit surprised you'd take the approach of the far left to their links with antisemitism, but it's a funny old world sometimes.
    I have an issue with the links between the then leader of the Labour Party and antisemitism. Or others high up in the Labour Party and antisemitism.

    Since there is no English National Party, there by default can not be any such links between them and the far right because the first part of your fictional link does not exist.

    Things that don't exist, can't be linked to other things. In order to be linked, it must first actually exist.
    Yes, I'm talking about Eng Nat political activism rather than any particular party.
    That's meaningless gibberish.

    There's no mainstream Eng Nat political activism, it is currently a fringe idea. I would like the Tories to embrace it and I advocate it, but its currently on the fringes and so isn't associated with any party.

    The issue with antisemitism is not with fringe activisim that doesn't engage with any party, it isn't that there were fringe leftwingers some of whom were racist - there is sadly a racist minority in all philosophies - it was when the Labour Party became institutionally infested with and led by antisemites.

    Your trying to conflate a philosophy with a party being led by an outright antisemite is just pure distractionism. If a mainstream party embraces Eng Nat activism then we would be able to judge that party as and when it does by how it acts.
    There's no need to panic and try to reframe what I'm saying so as to be able to call it gibberish.

    Yes, ardent Eng Nat is fringe not mainstream. And thank heavens for this since - as I say - it's strongly correlated to the sort of hard and reactionary right wing politics that nobody wishes to see except for its proponents.

    Of course you would know all this if you were to look into it.
    No you are making up lies because they suit your agenda.

    It is not correlated to anything, since it isn't at the fore. Only when it comes to the fore can you see what it is associated with.
    This convo reminds me of 2013-14. I would talk of British nationalism as a thing and the chaps going around waving UJs, saying GSTQ and talking of how the blood of the Somme cried out for a No vote in indyref would look all aggrieved and deny any such thing and claim they were merely being patriotic Brits.

    The interesting question is whether the Tories themselves have shifted since then. The party has certainly changed a lot. And it seems indicative that a lot, perhaps a majority, of pro-Brexiters in that poll commissioned by Wings over Scotland before the Brexit vote said that they'd rather have Brexit than keep Scotland in the Union. Okay, the situation has changed since then, but it is prima facie evidence for a certain acceptance of English nationalism, or at least distinct identity, in the demographic that presently tends to vote Tory (plus, admittedly, RefUK etc).
    They correctly thought they can have both, the Union and Brexit.

    52% of Scots excluding don't knows want to stay in the UK even after Brexit has now occurred in the latest Scottish poll
    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1424074941381713921?s=20
    Can't get at it - but the Wings poll was about UK voters, IIRC non-Scots ones. Look that up and then try again.
    They correctly knew there would never be a forced choice between Brexit and the Union as this Tory government would deliver the former and ensure the latter with Scotland was preserved too by refusing indyref2 for a generation.

    As it is most Scots still want to stay in the UK according to all the latest polls post Brexit anyway
    That poll was long before the Brexit vote - so that is a massive squirrel-load of hindsight. Zero marks for interpretation.
    Nope, that poll was this month.
    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1424346315266330629?s=20

    Tories meanwhile correctly believed and trusted in Boris
    The poll we were talking about was the one I referred to, not the one you dragged in like a lorryload of dead sciurids and dumped all over the floor like an Extinction Rebellion demonstrator pouring fake blood all over Whitehall.
    That made me smile
    The fact that he and his fellow diehard Remainers were proved completely wrong in saying there was a forced choice between Brexit and the Union?

    Or the fact that the latest Scottish independence poll also proves him wrong by putting No clearly ahead?
    As I made no remark on either, your remarks are completely wrong.
    You are completely wrong.

    After the Brexit vote Nats like you and diehard Remainers tried to push a totally false narrative you could only have Brexit or the Union, not both.

    Tories and Leavers and many Remainers who respected the vote knew better. Brexit has now been delivered and the latest polling still shows most Scots opposed to independence
    And if you think Brexit has been delivered I have a dead whale to sell [edit] you. Clue: inward customs. Clue: Northern Ireland.
    Brexit has been delivered with a trade deal with the EU, the fact NI has measures to avoid a hard border in Ireland unlike GB does not change that
    The courier service failed to deliver 1 of the two packages of my Screwfix order this week. I don't call that 'delivered'.
    Whereas Parliament ensured that Britain has exited the EU. British Exit.

    I'd call that 'delivered'.
    For GB, yes; for NI, not so much.
    For Britain, Britain has exited the EU, yes. That's Brexit quite literally isn't it?
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,256

    felix said:

    felix said:


    CON: 41% (+2)
    LAB: 33% (-1)

    via @YouGov


    CON: 41% (+1)
    LAB: 33% (-1)

    via @SavantaComRes

    The polls are all over the place
    Those 2 are all over the same place!
    Ipsos Mori today

    Con 41 +1

    Lab 30 -1

    LDM 13 0

    GRN 8 +2

    Lead is 11%

    Does this get better every time it is posted? How many more times before close of the thread I wonder?
    Just be thankful you aren't likely to see eleven grinning Boris Johnson's at the top of the next thread.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,951
    Brexit no more delivered today than it was yesterday.

    Some of the pain has arrived and all of the benefits (sic) are due "tomorrow..."
  • Options
    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,442
    IshmaelZ said:

    Es are good!

    Paul Naisbitt Blue heartFlag of DenmarkFlag of European UnionRainbow Woke
    @paulnaisbitt_dk
    I’ve noticed a number of tweets referring to the Secretary of State for Education and his bout of amnesia regarding his A level grades. Just to put the record straight, the said individual got 3 grade E’s and managed to get a place at Bradford University through clearing.

    So he outright lied? He said as soon as he opened the grades he knew he was guaranteed to go to Bradford. Would that be the case with clearing?
    Depends. If your dad's mate is VC and you've been told that there will be a place there for you if you miss the grades for your choices...
  • Options
    StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Andy_JS said:

    "Matt Goodwin
    @GoodwinMJ

    Immigration is now the TOP issue for British Conservative voters"

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1425566046837256193

    Reminiscent of the Sweden Democrats: that’s how they got going. By getting immigration to the top of the agenda. The difference is that Sweden had a sensible centre-right party, so the far right were stymied.

    The overthrow of the old centre right in England is now complete. Vive la révolution!
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,750

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Fishing said:

    I'm not sure it'll be as damaging as people think, politically speaking, just because it's so difficult to justify an 8% increase for the old at a time when the young are getting completely screwed.

    The Triple Lock, like the FTPA and so much else the Heir to Blair did is long overdue for the scrapheap.

    This is the problem with Tories: you are so inconsistent. Johnson has ditched pretty much everything Cameron, Major and Thatcher ever did. The obvious conclusion is that one day a future Tory PM will ditch everything Johnson does.

    The modern iteration of the Tory party:

    - English Nationalist, not One Nation
    - Revolutionary, not Conservative
    - High tax/high debt, not Friedman
    - State control, not free market
    - Social engineering, not conservatism
    - Nasty, not paternal
    - Reactive, not confident
    - Populist, not principled
    - Clown, not competence
    - Degenerate, not moral
    - Cash for pals, not good governance
    - Fiscal spaffing, not fiscal moderation
    - Fuck business, not pro business
    - Proroguing parliament, not the rule of law
    - Lying to the monarch, not respecting institutions
    - Authoritarian, not liberal
    - Corruption, not ethics

    The only constant is the blue rosettes.
    The Conservative Party used to be one that I could disagree with but respect as a British institution. That party is gone and the thing that has replaced it has no ideology, which is really sad, to be honest.
    According to party loyalist HYUFD it has transmogrified into the English Nationalist Party. The honest thing to do would be to change the name, as that more accurately reflects the nature of the organisation. But alas honesty is not one of their core characteristics.
    The notion that the Tories are an English Nationalist Party is completely farcical. As much as I would want it to be one, it very clearly isn't.

    If the Tories were then they'd be pushing for a second Scottish independence referendum and pushing for a Yes vote in that. Is that happening? I don't think so.
    One wonders why you feel so at home as an English Nationalist and those that aren't, have resigned or been kicked out, if what you are saying is true.
    Because its not true.

    The ones who resigned or got kicked out were those who were European nationalists and couldn't cope with their grief at losing their European identity.

    England wasn't here nor there for that.
    What has Brexit got to do with European identity? Whether you like it or not, England/the UK is within the continent of Europe. We will always be European.

    Even your mate BoJo said that when the referendum result came in. Your pathetic EDL-lite style posturing shows through in this post.

    Perhaps you should ask yourself - but I am sure you don't care - why the Tory Party has abandoned so many people that voted for it for decades. And whether you think that's right.
    Your naivety is astonishing.

    What the heck has the continent of Europe got to do with being in the European Union?

    Should those in Alberta or Quebec or Jalisco be considered Americans and join the United States of America?

    That's got nothing to do with England, or EDL or anything else. If you're so childish and puerile as you consider that being in a continent means you must be part of a union then that's just farcical.

    Anyway the Tory Party has not abandoned so many that voted for it for decades. The Tory Party got more voters than it has in decades. So yes I absolutely 100% think that's right and anyone so undemocratic as to like you equate Brexit with "EDL" or English nationalism absolutely should be told to take a cold shower until they stop being so silly.
    Absolutely not a personal inference about you but did you ever take my recommendation and check out the links between Eng Nat and the far right?
    There are no links.

    Since I can't examine inside your head for what you fictionalise, I can't do much more than that.
    You've looked into it and found that there are no links? I find this hard to believe. I think you haven't looked into it.
    No, there are no links to look into.

    That's like me saying to look into the links between ASFsdnbvjisfgadf and GFDGHSUIGSFcassd. Are you going to do that? Or are you going to dismiss it as gibberish?
    That's a rather silly response. But, ok, if you want to stay in blissful ignorance about the seamy end of Eng Nat, pretend it's not there, that's your prerogative. I can't force you to take a look at it. I'm a bit surprised you'd take the approach of the far left to their links with antisemitism, but it's a funny old world sometimes.
    I have an issue with the links between the then leader of the Labour Party and antisemitism. Or others high up in the Labour Party and antisemitism.

    Since there is no English National Party, there by default can not be any such links between them and the far right because the first part of your fictional link does not exist.

    Things that don't exist, can't be linked to other things. In order to be linked, it must first actually exist.
    Yes, I'm talking about Eng Nat political activism rather than any particular party.
    That's meaningless gibberish.

    There's no mainstream Eng Nat political activism, it is currently a fringe idea. I would like the Tories to embrace it and I advocate it, but its currently on the fringes and so isn't associated with any party.

    The issue with antisemitism is not with fringe activisim that doesn't engage with any party, it isn't that there were fringe leftwingers some of whom were racist - there is sadly a racist minority in all philosophies - it was when the Labour Party became institutionally infested with and led by antisemites.

    Your trying to conflate a philosophy with a party being led by an outright antisemite is just pure distractionism. If a mainstream party embraces Eng Nat activism then we would be able to judge that party as and when it does by how it acts.
    There's no need to panic and try to reframe what I'm saying so as to be able to call it gibberish.

    Yes, ardent Eng Nat is fringe not mainstream. And thank heavens for this since - as I say - it's strongly correlated to the sort of hard and reactionary right wing politics that nobody wishes to see except for its proponents.

    Of course you would know all this if you were to look into it.
    No you are making up lies because they suit your agenda.

    It is not correlated to anything, since it isn't at the fore. Only when it comes to the fore can you see what it is associated with.
    This convo reminds me of 2013-14. I would talk of British nationalism as a thing and the chaps going around waving UJs, saying GSTQ and talking of how the blood of the Somme cried out for a No vote in indyref would look all aggrieved and deny any such thing and claim they were merely being patriotic Brits.

    The interesting question is whether the Tories themselves have shifted since then. The party has certainly changed a lot. And it seems indicative that a lot, perhaps a majority, of pro-Brexiters in that poll commissioned by Wings over Scotland before the Brexit vote said that they'd rather have Brexit than keep Scotland in the Union. Okay, the situation has changed since then, but it is prima facie evidence for a certain acceptance of English nationalism, or at least distinct identity, in the demographic that presently tends to vote Tory (plus, admittedly, RefUK etc).
    They correctly thought they can have both, the Union and Brexit.

    52% of Scots excluding don't knows want to stay in the UK even after Brexit has now occurred in the latest Scottish poll
    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1424074941381713921?s=20
    Can't get at it - but the Wings poll was about UK voters, IIRC non-Scots ones. Look that up and then try again.
    They correctly knew there would never be a forced choice between Brexit and the Union as this Tory government would deliver the former and ensure the latter with Scotland was preserved too by refusing indyref2 for a generation.

    As it is most Scots still want to stay in the UK according to all the latest polls post Brexit anyway
    That poll was long before the Brexit vote - so that is a massive squirrel-load of hindsight. Zero marks for interpretation.
    Nope, that poll was this month.
    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1424346315266330629?s=20

    Tories meanwhile correctly believed and trusted in Boris
    The poll we were talking about was the one I referred to, not the one you dragged in like a lorryload of dead sciurids and dumped all over the floor like an Extinction Rebellion demonstrator pouring fake blood all over Whitehall.
    That made me smile
    The fact that he and his fellow diehard Remainers were proved completely wrong in saying there was a forced choice between Brexit and the Union?

    Or the fact that the latest Scottish independence poll also proves him wrong by putting No clearly ahead?
    As I made no remark on either, your remarks are completely wrong.
    You are completely wrong.

    After the Brexit vote Nats like you and diehard Remainers tried to push a totally false narrative you could only have Brexit or the Union, not both.

    Tories and Leavers and many Remainers who respected the vote knew better. Brexit has now been delivered and the latest polling still shows most Scots opposed to independence
    And if you think Brexit has been delivered I have a dead whale to sell [edit] you. Clue: inward customs. Clue: Northern Ireland.
    Brexit has been delivered with a trade deal with the EU, the fact NI has measures to avoid a hard border in Ireland unlike GB does not change that
    The courier service failed to deliver 1 of the two packages of my Screwfix order this week. I don't call that 'delivered'.
    Whereas Parliament ensured that Britain has exited the EU. British Exit.

    I'd call that 'delivered'.
    For GB, yes; for NI, not so much.
    For Britain, Britain has exited the EU, yes. That's Brexit quite literally isn't it?
    Polishing the turd a bit there, but if it keeps you happy!
  • Options
    Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,540

    kinabalu said:

    OK @kinabalu I have looked into and done a statistical analysis of English nationalist sentiment and the far right.

    I have taken the UK's best political blog as a point of reference. There are unabashed English nationalists on this website that post here.

    You have in your own judgement determined that there are not any English nationalist far right posters on here.

    Therefore by a rigorous statistical analysis, there is an r^2 value of 0 correlating English nationalism with the far right, as per this website and your own opinion.

    Case closed.

    That's a reasaonable first tack - to look at here. And it's not zero, not at all. There's a couple on 'Watch' as I said - loose use of couple as in 3 or 4 - and plus there's some unsavouries who've been banned in recent weeks. So I'd say this is enough to continue our investigation rather than any sort of excuse to shut it down. YOUR investigation, I mean, since I've already done it.
    On a more general note there do seem to be people extremely concerned about far right extremists in the UK. Of course these extremists may have absolutely nothing to do with English Nationalism, but just enjoy prancing about in jackboots and being down on brown people.

    'Fastest-growing UK terror threat 'from far-right''

    'Violent right-wing extremism is a ‘major threat’ in the UK, MI5 boss says'

    'Future Trends: Far-Right Terrorism in the UK – A Major Threat?'

    'Racism fuelling far-right threat in UK - MI5's Ken McCallum warns'
    What has any of that whatsoever got to do with English nationalism?

    There is an issue with far right extremism but that's got nothing to do with the belief that England should be a self-governing nation.
    Q. Are the English Defence League English nationalists?
    No.
    Bit shocking that you're deciding that people who at various times have described themselves as English nationalists are wrong about this. More than a whiff of the metropolitan elite talking down to the fruitcakes and loonies and closet racists.
    English nationalism is the belief that England should be a self-governing, independent nation. That's what the word means.

    I see nothing from the EDL to say they have that belief. All I see from them is racism. I don't care what they self-identify as, or what flag they try to misappropriate, if they're not advocating for that then they're not English nationalists.
    The EDL do believe that England should be a self-governing, independent nation.

    They just don't believe it should include 'foreigners', particularly those from one particular religious background. Not very far to the right of Farage, his fellow travellers and those who have ever voted for him.

    They are definitely English nationalists.
    Can you give me a citation please on the EDL believing that England should be independent and apart from Scotland? I've never heard anything about that from them.

    They're racist scumbags. No more and no less, don't enlighten them as to being anything other that racist bigots.
    No I can't, but the clue's in the name, I suspect - what's the E stand for? No mention of Scotland (or Wales for that matter). I suspect they'd be happy to allow the sectarian Unionists of NI to belong, though.
  • Options
    FossFoss Posts: 694
    I think we're probably getting to the end of silly season and we're about to see the start of the first big post covid crisis to enter the public consciousness - U.S. Asks Taliban to Spare Its Embassy in Coming Fight for Kabul.
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,966
    edited August 2021

    Andy_JS said:

    "Matt Goodwin
    @GoodwinMJ

    Immigration is now the TOP issue for British Conservative voters"

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1425566046837256193

    Goodwin loves it. He started off some years ago as an academic analyst of social divisions, now his main leitmotif seems to be to promote such divisions.

    But I suspect it's not really immigration at all, is it? 'Immigration' is just a proxy for asylum seekers/refugees crossing the Channel. Not at all the same thing as immigration.

    Lazy polling, and lazy tweeting.
    Immigration is often a proxy marker for "people not like me".
  • Options
    Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,540
    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    felix said:

    kinabalu said:

    felix said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    As some of you may know, following my granddaughter's excellent A level results she starts at Leeds University in September on a 5 year course in Japanese and Italian language and culture.

    However, this morning Leeds University are offering some students (my granddaughter is not affected) £10,000 and free accommodation to defer their courses

    As a matter of interest how are these grants funded

    BBC News - University of Leeds students offered £10k and free housing to defer
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leeds-58176877

    Congrats to her. That's a long stint, 5 years, so I hope she enjoys it. My brother is a Prof at Leeds Uni, btw, but not on the languages side of things.
    Yes, good for her. Leeds feels an amazing place to be at the minute. Cutting edge, but not too big to be impersonal.
    Good timing on the Uni front too - should be more trad student life and less digital from next year onwards. It's all been a bit sad apparently during the pandemic. And no fees refund of course.
    Yes the whole student thing will have been, sadly, watered down somewhat. I do feel really sorry for young people throughout this whole thing, uni students or not. If I'd missed being able to go out and get plastered and/or laid for an 18 month period anywhere between being 17 and 25-ish, life would have been much more miserable. Particularly the 18-21 years.

    There was a bit of a kerfuffle about the students hanging out in the studenty areas of Leeds, no social distancing all that jazz, and those areas did have huge covid numbers, but I don't blame them. I'd've done exactly the same at their age.

    Face-to-face teaching will be better too!
    I'm ashamed to say that my uni time was pretty much 0% doing a degree and 100% "exploring my new status as a young adult". I'd go for more of a 50/50, given my time again, but of course that's by definition a nonsense. Given my time again I'd do exactly the same.
    Completely justifying a slimmed down 2 year degree - why on earth they should be subsidised piss-ups at the expense of w/c taxpayers is utterly beyond me.
    So let's get the working class in there in size and break down the citadel. Fund it from (inter alia) higher rate and wealth tax. Replace the Politics of Envy with that of Aspiration.
    Either way - 'finding yourself' at taxpayers' expense by going on the piss for 3 years is a waste of dosh. The irony of your last sentence coming from a socialist is quite breathtaking.
    Thinking cap, Felix. And not for the first time.

    Plus I'm not a socialist, I'm a hard left social democrat.
    Very rich hard left social democrat.

    But look it really doesn't matter.
    Correct. I'm not imo "very rich" but it doesn't matter for these purposes. Political discourse is utterly corrupted otherwise. Invokig the personal finances of a person on the left is a classic way in which the right seek to police who can validly be on the left. Reducing the number to as close to zero as possible is the aim. It's bollox. I have no time for it.
    Neither did Polly but it has relevance.

    You want a more equal society (huzzah) but are happy to benefit from society's quirks (your hard work in this case to get a job not as a hospital porter, but as a [insert your previous list of chartered accountant, bond trader, blah, blah]). As such you are benefiting from an unequal society while advocating an equal one.

    Should you give up all your wealth?

    Well, yes. Yes you should. Otherwise you undermine your position and lay yourself open to the charge of hypocrisy and do as I say not as I do-ism.

    Plenty of charities, tax, HMRC, you name it as willing recipients. Why this very morning Ben Wadham moved me to set up a standing order for the Veterans Foundation. Perhaps a scroll through justgiving might be your next move.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-GDz21uUhBU
    Hmm, let's see now, should I give away all my money so as to improve my standing with right wingers on the internet?

    You've put me in a quandary here, damn you.
    Nah you should give away all your money so as to improve your standing with left wingers in the UK.
    As if. No, we hold no truck with that sort of nonsense. I know you're trolling anyway. The other week - re the footballers - you were rather effective (by your standards) on the correct side of this argument.
    What about this thought experiment.

    You put yourself up as leader of a political Party. After a very successful career in the City, retiring earlier than many, perhaps most people, living in leafy Hampstead, within striking distance of arguably the best pub in the world.

    Which party would be a natural fit for you and which set of party supporters do you think would a) embrace you; or b) reject you.
    Well Labour is the natural fit for my genuine politics. But, ok, say I could roleplay that to suit, as I guess some careerists do, which party would a person with my CV and background be more likely to prosper in? It's a great question and I truly don't know. Could be either of the main ones and neither could we rule out the Liberal Democrats (although given it's for career purposes perhaps we can).
    Living in Remain central Hampstead obviously rules out the Tories, however having worked in the City still probably rules out Labour, so I guess the LDs
    Oh great.
    Don't worry, the Greens would have you, once Labour finishes expelling everybody earning above average wage, on the grounds of gross hypocrisy. :)
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,966
    MattW said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Speaking of gaslighting, I'm an inveterate player of Words with Friends (though it's pretty much in the filling in the time I have left to me category). I've just realised that more than half my opponents are identikit - shortish woman's name followed by initial, profile pic of dog or cat. How can I have been so unobservant?! They actually have a weekly play against bots feature but that's obviously not enough for them.

    I'm not sure what this new meaning of "gaslighting" is. For me, it still mainly means a light that uses gas.
    "Gaslighting is a form of emotional abuse that’s seen in abusive relationships. It’s the act of manipulating a person by forcing them to question their thoughts, memories, and the events occurring around them. A victim of gaslighting can be pushed so far that they question their own sanity.

    The term “gaslighting” comes from a play and subsequent movie called “Gaslight.” In the movie, the devious husband, played by Charles Boyer, manipulates and torments his wife, played by Ingrid Bergman, to convince her she’s going mad."

    https://www.healthline.com/health/gaslighting

    So if you have a blue front door you paint it red while your spouse is away and they come back and say I'm sure it used to be blue and you say No, it's been red as long as we've lived here, and they think they are going mad. Term is used more widely to mean just misleading people.
    Or, as the modern definition linked puts it:

    "Gaslighting is a form of emotional abuse that’s seen in abusive relationships. It’s the act of manipulating a person by forcing them to question their thoughts, memories, and the events occurring around them. "

    By which you can see that an accusation of gaslighting - telling someone that they are emotionally abusing you by doing X Y or Z - can very easily itself meet the definition of gaslighting viz. manipulating a person by forcing them to question their thoughts, memories etc.

    Very easily manipulable by being the first party to report whatever to whoever.
    It also comes from a film from the 40's and has been in the lexicon since the 60's.
    It is hardly a recent coinage.
  • Options
    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    felix said:

    felix said:


    CON: 41% (+2)
    LAB: 33% (-1)

    via @YouGov


    CON: 41% (+1)
    LAB: 33% (-1)

    via @SavantaComRes

    The polls are all over the place
    Those 2 are all over the same place!
    And the other one out today is 41-30 Con over Lab, with Sir Keir on -26 net satisfaction.
    I'm expecting the next thread on here to be about these polls.
    Why release a Starmer is crap header when every thread evolves into a Starmer is crap thread anyway?

    For consistency Starmer is indeed crap, which is a disappointing shame.
    Starmer's crapness is not sufficient to explain the polling. It is the perception and the reality of the contemporary Labour Party that is giving the Tories an undeserved boost.
    As I commented earlier, the damage Corbyn has caused the Labour brand is calamitous and Starmer would have an uphill struggle even if he had charisma and charm

    I just do not know how Labour become electable in the next few years
    And it pains you so. That's very clear.
    For me as a conservative I am content though not entirely uncritical of HMG and Boris in particular

    Mind you if these polls are to be believed I cannot see Boris leaving his post

    Interestingly over the last couple of days I have heard from some in the party and mps that they recognise Boris has had a poor time but there are no signs of an immediate response to the position
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,216
    Long thread on breakthrough infections in US and Delta variant:



    avid Wallace-Wells
    @dwallacewells
    The vaccines are still performing quite well in preventing severe disease. But with Delta they are doing much worse in stopping transmission. Breakthroughs are probably now 10-20% of new infections, and perhaps as much as 5% of new deaths. A thread. (1/x)

    https://twitter.com/dwallacewells/status/1425776372065132544
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Hmm, even taking into account the delayed Welsh figures case numbers not as low as I was expecting for us topping out.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,404

    isam said:

    felix said:

    felix said:


    CON: 41% (+2)
    LAB: 33% (-1)

    via @YouGov


    CON: 41% (+1)
    LAB: 33% (-1)

    via @SavantaComRes

    The polls are all over the place
    Those 2 are all over the same place!
    And the other one out today is 41-30 Con over Lab, with Sir Keir on -26 net satisfaction.
    I'm expecting the next thread on here to be about these polls.
    Why release a Starmer is crap header when every thread evolves into a Starmer is crap thread anyway?

    For consistency Starmer is indeed crap, which is a disappointing shame.
    Starmer's crapness is not sufficient to explain the polling. It is the perception and the reality of the contemporary Labour Party that is giving the Tories an undeserved boost.
    The problem isn't that Starmer is crap. He is a blank canvas - no one knows what "Starmerism" is.
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    Andy_JS said:

    "Matt Goodwin
    @GoodwinMJ

    Immigration is now the TOP issue for British Conservative voters"

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1425566046837256193

    Goodwin loves it. He started off some years ago as an academic analyst of social divisions, now his main leitmotif seems to be to promote such divisions.

    But I suspect it's not really immigration at all, is it? 'Immigration' is just a proxy for asylum seekers/refugees crossing the Channel. Not at all the same thing as immigration.

    Lazy polling, and lazy tweeting.
    I agree - this is almost certainly a result of Patel's failure to tackle the cross channel smuggling of migrants
  • Options
    StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Foss said:

    I think we're probably getting to the end of silly season and we're about to see the start of the first big post covid crisis to enter the public consciousness - U.S. Asks Taliban to Spare Its Embassy in Coming Fight for Kabul.

    Could Biden lose the next election on this? Vietnam II
  • Options
    Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,540
    edited August 2021
    Selebian said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Es are good!

    Paul Naisbitt Blue heartFlag of DenmarkFlag of European UnionRainbow Woke
    @paulnaisbitt_dk
    I’ve noticed a number of tweets referring to the Secretary of State for Education and his bout of amnesia regarding his A level grades. Just to put the record straight, the said individual got 3 grade E’s and managed to get a place at Bradford University through clearing.

    So he outright lied? He said as soon as he opened the grades he knew he was guaranteed to go to Bradford. Would that be the case with clearing?
    Depends. If your dad's mate is VC and you've been told that there will be a place there for you if you miss the grades for your choices...
    Williamson could have had an unconditional offer; they were quite common in his day. School predicted him 3 As, Bradford said yes please whatever, Gavin got 3 Es, Bradford ruing the day and changing its policy on unconditional offers.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,745
    Sandpit said:

    One for John Rentoul’s QTWTAIN series.

    No, the Chancellor isn’t going to increase pensions by 8%.

    Given how the WASPI supporters acted I dont see a reasonable response to his decision if that is what it is.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited August 2021

    kinabalu said:

    OK @kinabalu I have looked into and done a statistical analysis of English nationalist sentiment and the far right.

    I have taken the UK's best political blog as a point of reference. There are unabashed English nationalists on this website that post here.

    You have in your own judgement determined that there are not any English nationalist far right posters on here.

    Therefore by a rigorous statistical analysis, there is an r^2 value of 0 correlating English nationalism with the far right, as per this website and your own opinion.

    Case closed.

    That's a reasaonable first tack - to look at here. And it's not zero, not at all. There's a couple on 'Watch' as I said - loose use of couple as in 3 or 4 - and plus there's some unsavouries who've been banned in recent weeks. So I'd say this is enough to continue our investigation rather than any sort of excuse to shut it down. YOUR investigation, I mean, since I've already done it.
    On a more general note there do seem to be people extremely concerned about far right extremists in the UK. Of course these extremists may have absolutely nothing to do with English Nationalism, but just enjoy prancing about in jackboots and being down on brown people.

    'Fastest-growing UK terror threat 'from far-right''

    'Violent right-wing extremism is a ‘major threat’ in the UK, MI5 boss says'

    'Future Trends: Far-Right Terrorism in the UK – A Major Threat?'

    'Racism fuelling far-right threat in UK - MI5's Ken McCallum warns'
    What has any of that whatsoever got to do with English nationalism?

    There is an issue with far right extremism but that's got nothing to do with the belief that England should be a self-governing nation.
    Q. Are the English Defence League English nationalists?
    No.
    Bit shocking that you're deciding that people who at various times have described themselves as English nationalists are wrong about this. More than a whiff of the metropolitan elite talking down to the fruitcakes and loonies and closet racists.
    English nationalism is the belief that England should be a self-governing, independent nation. That's what the word means.

    I see nothing from the EDL to say they have that belief. All I see from them is racism. I don't care what they self-identify as, or what flag they try to misappropriate, if they're not advocating for that then they're not English nationalists.
    The EDL do believe that England should be a self-governing, independent nation.

    They just don't believe it should include 'foreigners', particularly those from one particular religious background. Not very far to the right of Farage, his fellow travellers and those who have ever voted for him.

    They are definitely English nationalists.
    Can you give me a citation please on the EDL believing that England should be independent and apart from Scotland? I've never heard anything about that from them.

    They're racist scumbags. No more and no less, don't enlighten them as to being anything other that racist bigots.
    No I can't, but the clue's in the name, I suspect - what's the E stand for? No mention of Scotland (or Wales for that matter). I suspect they'd be happy to allow the sectarian Unionists of NI to belong, though.
    So you can't, good, and no the clue is not in the name. The name England does not make you an England nationalist. Is the England football team full of England nationalists? The England Cricket Team? The ECB?

    They're racist shithead scum. I've never seen anything from them on English independence and neither have you, so that doesn't make them nationalists.
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 18,545

    HYUFD said:

    LDs turn hawk, attacking Biden for abandoning Afghanistan.

    Davey is clearly a classicial liberal in the Paddy Ashdown, Gladstone mode, fiscally conservative, internationalist and interventionist abroad but pro civil liberties and good on him. This is no longer the more social democratic, pacifist party of Charles Kennedy, most of them are now in Labour or the Greens
    https://twitter.com/LibDems/status/1425827915455942656?s=20

    The timing for such a party is ripe because the new political polarities are morphing from left versus right to freedom versus control.
    Interesting thought.

    There is something of an authoritarian wing to even the LDs. This afternoon on Lib Dem voice there is a piece arguing that there should be Carbon Rationing for each person, and therefore the means to monitor it, justified by rationing in WW2.
    https://www.libdemvoice.org/taking-decisive-climate-action-68380.html
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,404

    Long thread on breakthrough infections in US and Delta variant:



    avid Wallace-Wells
    @dwallacewells
    The vaccines are still performing quite well in preventing severe disease. But with Delta they are doing much worse in stopping transmission. Breakthroughs are probably now 10-20% of new infections, and perhaps as much as 5% of new deaths. A thread. (1/x)

    https://twitter.com/dwallacewells/status/1425776372065132544

    So, exactly what we have been seeing in the UK for months...
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,216
    "Young Black New Yorkers are especially reluctant to get vaccinated, even as the Delta variant is rapidly spreading among their ranks. City data shows that only 27 percent of Black New Yorkers ages 18 to 44 years are fully vaccinated,"

    "...he would rather put his trust in masks and hand sanitizer — which he credits with keeping him healthy as he worked at construction sites throughout the pandemic — than a new vaccine that the government is pushing people to take. “They came out with one so fast for Covid, and now they want to pay you to take it,” he said. “It seems fishy.” "

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/12/nyregion/covid-vaccine-black-young-new-yorkers.html
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,745
    Scott_xP said:

    NEW: “The French had a coordinated foreign policy two years out with a former PM working on it and 200 diplomats in support. We've got nothing like that basically, not even close.”

    Me and @KarlMathiesen's report on the battle for COP26 https://politico.eu/article/boris-johnson-climate-problem-conservative-government-cop26/

    We heard Boris Johnson has sent repeated messages to the cabinet in person and in writing that COP26 was a core government priority - but that hasn't been enough to right the ship
    https://twitter.com/estwebber/status/1425729656825712643

    Do they achieve anything beyond promises anyway?

    Genuine question, not snarky. I just dont see his to judge it a success or not, since a promise not from one not realised is worse than no promise.
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820

    Long thread on breakthrough infections in US and Delta variant:
    [snip]

    TBH I think the US data is so patchy and confused, and so badly presented, that it doesn't really tell us anything very useful. Our own UK data is far better. In addition they screwed up the age profile of vaccinations, failing to jab quite a high proportion of over 50s, and they also went with the 3-week interval for Pfizer, which is known to be less effective than the longer periods used here.
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 18,545
    It seems that Len McCluskey has an autobiography coming out.

    https://www.orbooks.com/catalog/always-red/
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,627
    "@BritainElects
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 41% (+1)
    LAB: 30% (-1)
    LDEM: 13% (-)
    GRN: 8% (+2)

    via
    @IpsosMORI
    , 30 Jul - 09 Aug
    Chgs. w/ Jul"

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1425834782630440963
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,238

    Foss said:

    I think we're probably getting to the end of silly season and we're about to see the start of the first big post covid crisis to enter the public consciousness - U.S. Asks Taliban to Spare Its Embassy in Coming Fight for Kabul.

    Could Biden lose the next election on this? Vietnam II
    Ford didn’t lose the 1976 election over Vietnam.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,216

    Foss said:

    I think we're probably getting to the end of silly season and we're about to see the start of the first big post covid crisis to enter the public consciousness - U.S. Asks Taliban to Spare Its Embassy in Coming Fight for Kabul.

    Could Biden lose the next election on this? Vietnam II
    NYTimes did a piece on that and thought not. Most americans support getting out and have for a while. Trump will struggle to attack the results as he started the process.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,304
    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    LDs turn hawk, attacking Biden for abandoning Afghanistan.

    Davey is clearly a classicial liberal in the Paddy Ashdown, Gladstone mode, fiscally conservative, internationalist and interventionist abroad but pro civil liberties and good on him. This is no longer the more social democratic, pacifist party of Charles Kennedy, most of them are now in Labour or the Greens
    https://twitter.com/LibDems/status/1425827915455942656?s=20

    The timing for such a party is ripe because the new political polarities are morphing from left versus right to freedom versus control.
    Interesting thought.

    There is something of an authoritarian wing to even the LDs. This afternoon on Lib Dem voice there is a piece arguing that there should be Carbon Rationing for each person, and therefore the means to monitor it, justified by rationing in WW2.
    https://www.libdemvoice.org/taking-decisive-climate-action-68380.html
    Yeah the LibDems will want you to have a personal carbon metre to measure everything you do and then cut off all activity when you have reached your daily limit.

    Quite why @kinabalu chose them as a party goodness only knows.
  • Options
    FossFoss Posts: 694

    Foss said:

    I think we're probably getting to the end of silly season and we're about to see the start of the first big post covid crisis to enter the public consciousness - U.S. Asks Taliban to Spare Its Embassy in Coming Fight for Kabul.

    Could Biden lose the next election on this? Vietnam II
    The question is just how much does America still care? If it does - and it massively impacts his ratings - then an autumn '21 fall gives the Democrats time to find another candidate for '24 and let Biden retire after one term with some dignity rather than after a thrashing.
  • Options
    Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,540

    kinabalu said:

    OK @kinabalu I have looked into and done a statistical analysis of English nationalist sentiment and the far right.

    I have taken the UK's best political blog as a point of reference. There are unabashed English nationalists on this website that post here.

    You have in your own judgement determined that there are not any English nationalist far right posters on here.

    Therefore by a rigorous statistical analysis, there is an r^2 value of 0 correlating English nationalism with the far right, as per this website and your own opinion.

    Case closed.

    That's a reasaonable first tack - to look at here. And it's not zero, not at all. There's a couple on 'Watch' as I said - loose use of couple as in 3 or 4 - and plus there's some unsavouries who've been banned in recent weeks. So I'd say this is enough to continue our investigation rather than any sort of excuse to shut it down. YOUR investigation, I mean, since I've already done it.
    On a more general note there do seem to be people extremely concerned about far right extremists in the UK. Of course these extremists may have absolutely nothing to do with English Nationalism, but just enjoy prancing about in jackboots and being down on brown people.

    'Fastest-growing UK terror threat 'from far-right''

    'Violent right-wing extremism is a ‘major threat’ in the UK, MI5 boss says'

    'Future Trends: Far-Right Terrorism in the UK – A Major Threat?'

    'Racism fuelling far-right threat in UK - MI5's Ken McCallum warns'
    What has any of that whatsoever got to do with English nationalism?

    There is an issue with far right extremism but that's got nothing to do with the belief that England should be a self-governing nation.
    Q. Are the English Defence League English nationalists?
    No.
    Bit shocking that you're deciding that people who at various times have described themselves as English nationalists are wrong about this. More than a whiff of the metropolitan elite talking down to the fruitcakes and loonies and closet racists.
    English nationalism is the belief that England should be a self-governing, independent nation. That's what the word means.

    I see nothing from the EDL to say they have that belief. All I see from them is racism. I don't care what they self-identify as, or what flag they try to misappropriate, if they're not advocating for that then they're not English nationalists.
    The EDL do believe that England should be a self-governing, independent nation.

    They just don't believe it should include 'foreigners', particularly those from one particular religious background. Not very far to the right of Farage, his fellow travellers and those who have ever voted for him.

    They are definitely English nationalists.
    Can you give me a citation please on the EDL believing that England should be independent and apart from Scotland? I've never heard anything about that from them.

    They're racist scumbags. No more and no less, don't enlighten them as to being anything other that racist bigots.
    No I can't, but the clue's in the name, I suspect - what's the E stand for? No mention of Scotland (or Wales for that matter). I suspect they'd be happy to allow the sectarian Unionists of NI to belong, though.
    So you can't, good, and no the clue is not in the name. The name England does not make you an England nationalist. Is the England football team full of England nationalists? The England Cricket Team? The ECB?

    They're racist shithead scum. I've never seen anything from them on English independence and neither have you, so that doesn't make them nationalists.
    I should have known better than to engage with you. Bonkers and pointless comparisons.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,404
    UK cases by specimen date

    image
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,745
    edited August 2021
    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    Prince Andrew: Refusal to talk to Epstein investigators ‘straining relations between UK and America’

    … the lack of information-sharing had caused diplomatic strain, with US law enforcement and diplomats raising the matter with their British counterparts.

    The lack of cooperation now spans three years of reported attempts by the US authorities to gather facts from the royal who, in a statement from 2019, said he would be willing to help US law-enforcement with investigations. However, in January last year, Manhattan US attorney Geoffrey Berman said the country’s authorities had received “zero cooperation” from the prince…

    Of particular interest to the US authorities is how money transfers may be linked to the movement of young women and girls. The various interested bodies, including the FBI, believe these may offer insights into ongoing organised criminal operations.

    The authorities’ interests are understood to include multiple trips by the royal to Epstein’s Caribbean island, Little St James, as well as Florida and New York. Last year, prosecutors in the US Virgin Islands, which includes Little St James, alleged Mr Epstein abused hundreds of young women and girls up until 2018.

    Given the US refuse to hand over Anne Sacoolas tough.

    Perhaps they could also look a bit more into Bill Clinton and Bill Gates' links to Epstein before lecturing us

    This Windsor scandal is clearly touching a raw Tory nerve. Hardly news. I expect a veritable infestation of squirrels in the coming months and years. Poor old Harry and Meghan.

    Shame on you HY. If the Tories had an ounce of decency they would be encouraging the coward prince to get on a trans-Atlantic plane and face the charges, as he promised to do in 2019.
    1. The US criminal authorities have charged Ghislaine Maxwell. As part of that they may be seeking evidence from Andrew as a potential witness. There is no necessity for him to fly to the US to do this. He would be well advised not to in any case until the basis on which such discussions are had is clear & there is clear agreement on what use can & cannot be made of whatever he says. This is because there are various protections in law - both English & the US - and everyone is entitled to use them. There are dangers in volunteering evidence without doing so. There are also issues for the US authorities because evidence gathered in such a way may not be admissible in any subsequent trial

    Believe me, I have advised a number of people in similar circumstances & any good lawyer would be very wary about telling a client to go to the US to speak to the criminal authorities there just because they ask.

    The US authorities - whether criminal or regulatory - are very willing to grandstand in public to bully people into ignoring their rights. They will often try to ignore different legal requirements in overseas jurisdictions because (a) it is just plain inconvenient for them or (b) it stops them doing what they want.

    2. The US criminal authorities have not charged Andrew with anything. Extradition is irrelevant.

    3. He now faces a civil suit in the US - brought just before the limitation period expires. It is not entirely clear whether the allegation is that he had sex with a minor or had sex with someone over the age of consent without her consent (rape, in other words) or something else. There is an issue as to jurisdiction because the acts complained of, AFAIU, happened in the UK.

    It really does not matter whether he is an HRH or not. He is entitled to the same legal protections as everyone else including the presumption of innocence until proven guilty. There is something unseemly in the way that people rush to assume that because he appears to be an entitled twit he must therefore be guilty of serious crimes. Some of the comments made about him on social media are seriously defamatory. Equally, he is subject to the law as everyone else.

    There will be strategic & tactical decisions which his lawyers will have to consider. In addition, he - and his advisors - need to consider the impact of his behaviour on the rest of his family.

    Much of what is written in the papers about this is ill-informed nonsense.

    I have no idea who is telling the truth here. I do think Andrew was ill-advised to give that interview. But in any event, the matter is now in the hands of the lawyers and, from what I know, some of those advising him are very good indeed. I hope for his sake that he listens to good advice. He clearly hasn't in the past.

    You'd have thought courtiers or someone might have warned him about Epstein. But there again Epstein managed to get into his orbit people far far cleverer than Andrew - Clinton, Gates etc. So what does that say about them?
    Yes, theres a lot to say about all this, plenty of which does not look good for Andrew, but some are deliberately having fun implying a lot more than can be reasonably alleged, for pretty obvious reasons. Using legal avenues or doing no more than legally required may or may not look good, but it's not a sign of automatic guilt.

    Though some police act like it is. My favourite tv trope is when cops say they can do it now or come back with a warrant, and as things need to move on people give in, when in reality theyd definitely wait for a warrant, you'd hope, and why would doing it properly worry people.
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,404
    UK local R

    image
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    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    dixiedean said:

    MattW said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Speaking of gaslighting, I'm an inveterate player of Words with Friends (though it's pretty much in the filling in the time I have left to me category). I've just realised that more than half my opponents are identikit - shortish woman's name followed by initial, profile pic of dog or cat. How can I have been so unobservant?! They actually have a weekly play against bots feature but that's obviously not enough for them.

    I'm not sure what this new meaning of "gaslighting" is. For me, it still mainly means a light that uses gas.
    "Gaslighting is a form of emotional abuse that’s seen in abusive relationships. It’s the act of manipulating a person by forcing them to question their thoughts, memories, and the events occurring around them. A victim of gaslighting can be pushed so far that they question their own sanity.

    The term “gaslighting” comes from a play and subsequent movie called “Gaslight.” In the movie, the devious husband, played by Charles Boyer, manipulates and torments his wife, played by Ingrid Bergman, to convince her she’s going mad."

    https://www.healthline.com/health/gaslighting

    So if you have a blue front door you paint it red while your spouse is away and they come back and say I'm sure it used to be blue and you say No, it's been red as long as we've lived here, and they think they are going mad. Term is used more widely to mean just misleading people.
    Or, as the modern definition linked puts it:

    "Gaslighting is a form of emotional abuse that’s seen in abusive relationships. It’s the act of manipulating a person by forcing them to question their thoughts, memories, and the events occurring around them. "

    By which you can see that an accusation of gaslighting - telling someone that they are emotionally abusing you by doing X Y or Z - can very easily itself meet the definition of gaslighting viz. manipulating a person by forcing them to question their thoughts, memories etc.

    Very easily manipulable by being the first party to report whatever to whoever.
    It also comes from a film from the 40's and has been in the lexicon since the 60's.
    It is hardly a recent coinage.
    This subthread is a bit circular as you will see if you unnest the quotes.

    Hangover Square, also by Patrick Hamilton, is one of the best novels about drink.
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Talking of green policies, we've just had a preliminary estimate for installing a heat pump system for Chez Nabavi.

    Gulp!!!
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,097
    edited August 2021


    So you can't, good, and no the clue is not in the name. The name England does not make you an England nationalist. Is the England football team full of England nationalists? The England Cricket Team? The ECB?

    They're racist shithead scum. I've never seen anything from them on English independence and neither have you, so that doesn't make them nationalists.

    Haven't seen much from you on 'English independence' tbh, just vague ramblings on freedom and self government which can be appended with British or English depending on what day of the week it is.

    That kind of incoherence isn't a bad fit with the EDL approach actually.
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,404
    UK case summary

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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,404
    UK Hospitals

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    ydoethur said:

    Foss said:

    I think we're probably getting to the end of silly season and we're about to see the start of the first big post covid crisis to enter the public consciousness - U.S. Asks Taliban to Spare Its Embassy in Coming Fight for Kabul.

    Could Biden lose the next election on this? Vietnam II
    Ford didn’t lose the 1976 election over Vietnam.
    Ford's approval rating nosedived when he pardoned Nixon and never recovered from that.

    The fall of Saigon doesn't even feature in his polling chart as an event.
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,404
    UK deaths

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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,404
    UK R

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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,404
    Age related data

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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,404
    Age related data scaled to 100K

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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,005
    edited August 2021
    Foss said:

    I think we're probably getting to the end of silly season and we're about to see the start of the first big post covid crisis to enter the public consciousness - U.S. Asks Taliban to Spare Its Embassy in Coming Fight for Kabul.

    Pathetically weak from the Biden administration.

    This US administration is the weakest on foreign policy since Carter and probably weaker and Carter at least had some success in the Camp David accords.

    Putin, Xi, Iran and the Taliban and what remains of IS and AQ will be laughing their heads off at that
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,097
    Hope the 999 lines are prepared for the onslaught.

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1425821040605761558?s=20
  • Options
    StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    kinabalu said:

    OK @kinabalu I have looked into and done a statistical analysis of English nationalist sentiment and the far right.

    I have taken the UK's best political blog as a point of reference. There are unabashed English nationalists on this website that post here.

    You have in your own judgement determined that there are not any English nationalist far right posters on here.

    Therefore by a rigorous statistical analysis, there is an r^2 value of 0 correlating English nationalism with the far right, as per this website and your own opinion.

    Case closed.

    That's a reasaonable first tack - to look at here. And it's not zero, not at all. There's a couple on 'Watch' as I said - loose use of couple as in 3 or 4 - and plus there's some unsavouries who've been banned in recent weeks. So I'd say this is enough to continue our investigation rather than any sort of excuse to shut it down. YOUR investigation, I mean, since I've already done it.
    On a more general note there do seem to be people extremely concerned about far right extremists in the UK. Of course these extremists may have absolutely nothing to do with English Nationalism, but just enjoy prancing about in jackboots and being down on brown people.

    'Fastest-growing UK terror threat 'from far-right''

    'Violent right-wing extremism is a ‘major threat’ in the UK, MI5 boss says'

    'Future Trends: Far-Right Terrorism in the UK – A Major Threat?'

    'Racism fuelling far-right threat in UK - MI5's Ken McCallum warns'
    What has any of that whatsoever got to do with English nationalism?

    There is an issue with far right extremism but that's got nothing to do with the belief that England should be a self-governing nation.
    Q. Are the English Defence League English nationalists?
    No.
    Bit shocking that you're deciding that people who at various times have described themselves as English nationalists are wrong about this. More than a whiff of the metropolitan elite talking down to the fruitcakes and loonies and closet racists.
    English nationalism is the belief that England should be a self-governing, independent nation. That's what the word means.

    I see nothing from the EDL to say they have that belief. All I see from them is racism. I don't care what they self-identify as, or what flag they try to misappropriate, if they're not advocating for that then they're not English nationalists.
    The EDL do believe that England should be a self-governing, independent nation.

    They just don't believe it should include 'foreigners', particularly those from one particular religious background. Not very far to the right of Farage, his fellow travellers and those who have ever voted for him.

    They are definitely English nationalists.
    Can you give me a citation please on the EDL believing that England should be independent and apart from Scotland? I've never heard anything about that from them.

    They're racist scumbags. No more and no less, don't enlighten them as to being anything other that racist bigots.
    No I can't, but the clue's in the name, I suspect - what's the E stand for? No mention of Scotland (or Wales for that matter). I suspect they'd be happy to allow the sectarian Unionists of NI to belong, though.
    So you can't, good, and no the clue is not in the name. The name England does not make you an England nationalist. Is the England football team full of England nationalists? The England Cricket Team? The ECB?

    They're racist shithead scum. I've never seen anything from them on English independence and neither have you, so that doesn't make them nationalists.
    I should have known better than to engage with you. Bonkers and pointless comparisons.
    I’m afraid Philip is correct. Simply having the name English in the name of an organisation does not automatically make it nationalist.

    Eg. the Scottish National Trust is a deeply Unionist and conservative organisation
    The African National Congress does not seek a United Africa (AFAIAA)
    The British Library is not a British nationalist organisation
    The English National Opera is not English nationalist

  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,743

    kinabalu said:

    OK @kinabalu I have looked into and done a statistical analysis of English nationalist sentiment and the far right.

    I have taken the UK's best political blog as a point of reference. There are unabashed English nationalists on this website that post here.

    You have in your own judgement determined that there are not any English nationalist far right posters on here.

    Therefore by a rigorous statistical analysis, there is an r^2 value of 0 correlating English nationalism with the far right, as per this website and your own opinion.

    Case closed.

    That's a reasaonable first tack - to look at here. And it's not zero, not at all. There's a couple on 'Watch' as I said - loose use of couple as in 3 or 4 - and plus there's some unsavouries who've been banned in recent weeks. So I'd say this is enough to continue our investigation rather than any sort of excuse to shut it down. YOUR investigation, I mean, since I've already done it.
    On a more general note there do seem to be people extremely concerned about far right extremists in the UK. Of course these extremists may have absolutely nothing to do with English Nationalism, but just enjoy prancing about in jackboots and being down on brown people.

    'Fastest-growing UK terror threat 'from far-right''

    'Violent right-wing extremism is a ‘major threat’ in the UK, MI5 boss says'

    'Future Trends: Far-Right Terrorism in the UK – A Major Threat?'

    'Racism fuelling far-right threat in UK - MI5's Ken McCallum warns'
    What has any of that whatsoever got to do with English nationalism?

    There is an issue with far right extremism but that's got nothing to do with the belief that England should be a self-governing nation.
    Q. Are the English Defence League English nationalists?
    No.
    Bit shocking that you're deciding that people who at various times have described themselves as English nationalists are wrong about this. More than a whiff of the metropolitan elite talking down to the fruitcakes and loonies and closet racists.
    English nationalism is the belief that England should be a self-governing, independent nation. That's what the word means.

    I see nothing from the EDL to say they have that belief. All I see from them is racism. I don't care what they self-identify as, or what flag they try to misappropriate, if they're not advocating for that then they're not English nationalists.
    The EDL do believe that England should be a self-governing, independent nation.

    They just don't believe it should include 'foreigners', particularly those from one particular religious background. Not very far to the right of Farage, his fellow travellers and those who have ever voted for him.

    They are definitely English nationalists.
    Can you give me a citation please on the EDL believing that England should be independent and apart from Scotland? I've never heard anything about that from them.

    They're racist scumbags. No more and no less, don't enlighten them as to being anything other that racist bigots.
    No I can't, but the clue's in the name, I suspect - what's the E stand for? No mention of Scotland (or Wales for that matter). I suspect they'd be happy to allow the sectarian Unionists of NI to belong, though.
    So you can't, good, and no the clue is not in the name. The name England does not make you an England nationalist. Is the England football team full of England nationalists? The England Cricket Team? The ECB?

    They're racist shithead scum. I've never seen anything from them on English independence and neither have you, so that doesn't make them nationalists.
    I should have known better than to engage with you. Bonkers and pointless comparisons.
    I’m afraid Philip is correct. Simply having the name English in the name of an organisation does not automatically make it nationalist.

    Eg. the Scottish National Trust is a deeply Unionist and conservative organisation
    The African National Congress does not seek a United Africa (AFAIAA)
    The British Library is not a British nationalist organisation
    The English National Opera is not English nationalist

    Would it be fair to query why they apparently want to leave Wales, Scotland and N Ireland undefended if they want to keep the UK together?
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 18,545
    edited August 2021

    Talking of green policies, we've just had a preliminary estimate for installing a heat pump system for Chez Nabavi.

    Gulp!!!

    On your heatpump, have you a decent offer of Green Homes Grant?

    The way to do it is to make sure your fabric is as good as possible, which then requires a much smaller heatpump, and to run your own heat model first as they like to sell expensive ones.

    On heatpumps, the Guardian currently has a survey asking for experiences with heatpumps.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/aug/11/tell-us-have-you-installed-an-electric-heat-pump-in-your-home

    (Apols if teaching you to suck eggs)
  • Options
    felixfelix Posts: 15,124

    kinabalu said:

    OK @kinabalu I have looked into and done a statistical analysis of English nationalist sentiment and the far right.

    I have taken the UK's best political blog as a point of reference. There are unabashed English nationalists on this website that post here.

    You have in your own judgement determined that there are not any English nationalist far right posters on here.

    Therefore by a rigorous statistical analysis, there is an r^2 value of 0 correlating English nationalism with the far right, as per this website and your own opinion.

    Case closed.

    That's a reasaonable first tack - to look at here. And it's not zero, not at all. There's a couple on 'Watch' as I said - loose use of couple as in 3 or 4 - and plus there's some unsavouries who've been banned in recent weeks. So I'd say this is enough to continue our investigation rather than any sort of excuse to shut it down. YOUR investigation, I mean, since I've already done it.
    On a more general note there do seem to be people extremely concerned about far right extremists in the UK. Of course these extremists may have absolutely nothing to do with English Nationalism, but just enjoy prancing about in jackboots and being down on brown people.

    'Fastest-growing UK terror threat 'from far-right''

    'Violent right-wing extremism is a ‘major threat’ in the UK, MI5 boss says'

    'Future Trends: Far-Right Terrorism in the UK – A Major Threat?'

    'Racism fuelling far-right threat in UK - MI5's Ken McCallum warns'
    What has any of that whatsoever got to do with English nationalism?

    There is an issue with far right extremism but that's got nothing to do with the belief that England should be a self-governing nation.
    Q. Are the English Defence League English nationalists?
    No.
    Bit shocking that you're deciding that people who at various times have described themselves as English nationalists are wrong about this. More than a whiff of the metropolitan elite talking down to the fruitcakes and loonies and closet racists.
    English nationalism is the belief that England should be a self-governing, independent nation. That's what the word means.

    I see nothing from the EDL to say they have that belief. All I see from them is racism. I don't care what they self-identify as, or what flag they try to misappropriate, if they're not advocating for that then they're not English nationalists.
    The EDL do believe that England should be a self-governing, independent nation.

    They just don't believe it should include 'foreigners', particularly those from one particular religious background. Not very far to the right of Farage, his fellow travellers and those who have ever voted for him.

    They are definitely English nationalists.
    Can you give me a citation please on the EDL believing that England should be independent and apart from Scotland? I've never heard anything about that from them.

    They're racist scumbags. No more and no less, don't enlighten them as to being anything other that racist bigots.
    No I can't, but the clue's in the name, I suspect - what's the E stand for? No mention of Scotland (or Wales for that matter). I suspect they'd be happy to allow the sectarian Unionists of NI to belong, though.
    So you can't, good, and no the clue is not in the name. The name England does not make you an England nationalist. Is the England football team full of England nationalists? The England Cricket Team? The ECB?

    They're racist shithead scum. I've never seen anything from them on English independence and neither have you, so that doesn't make them nationalists.
    I should have known better than to engage with you. Bonkers and pointless comparisons.
    I’m afraid Philip is correct. Simply having the name English in the name of an organisation does not automatically make it nationalist.

    Eg. the Scottish National Trust is a deeply Unionist and conservative organisation
    The African National Congress does not seek a United Africa (AFAIAA)
    The British Library is not a British nationalist organisation
    The English National Opera is not English nationalist

    The Royal Ballet is not a monarchist front!
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,097

    kinabalu said:

    OK @kinabalu I have looked into and done a statistical analysis of English nationalist sentiment and the far right.

    I have taken the UK's best political blog as a point of reference. There are unabashed English nationalists on this website that post here.

    You have in your own judgement determined that there are not any English nationalist far right posters on here.

    Therefore by a rigorous statistical analysis, there is an r^2 value of 0 correlating English nationalism with the far right, as per this website and your own opinion.

    Case closed.

    That's a reasaonable first tack - to look at here. And it's not zero, not at all. There's a couple on 'Watch' as I said - loose use of couple as in 3 or 4 - and plus there's some unsavouries who've been banned in recent weeks. So I'd say this is enough to continue our investigation rather than any sort of excuse to shut it down. YOUR investigation, I mean, since I've already done it.
    On a more general note there do seem to be people extremely concerned about far right extremists in the UK. Of course these extremists may have absolutely nothing to do with English Nationalism, but just enjoy prancing about in jackboots and being down on brown people.

    'Fastest-growing UK terror threat 'from far-right''

    'Violent right-wing extremism is a ‘major threat’ in the UK, MI5 boss says'

    'Future Trends: Far-Right Terrorism in the UK – A Major Threat?'

    'Racism fuelling far-right threat in UK - MI5's Ken McCallum warns'
    What has any of that whatsoever got to do with English nationalism?

    There is an issue with far right extremism but that's got nothing to do with the belief that England should be a self-governing nation.
    Q. Are the English Defence League English nationalists?
    No.
    Bit shocking that you're deciding that people who at various times have described themselves as English nationalists are wrong about this. More than a whiff of the metropolitan elite talking down to the fruitcakes and loonies and closet racists.
    English nationalism is the belief that England should be a self-governing, independent nation. That's what the word means.

    I see nothing from the EDL to say they have that belief. All I see from them is racism. I don't care what they self-identify as, or what flag they try to misappropriate, if they're not advocating for that then they're not English nationalists.
    The EDL do believe that England should be a self-governing, independent nation.

    They just don't believe it should include 'foreigners', particularly those from one particular religious background. Not very far to the right of Farage, his fellow travellers and those who have ever voted for him.

    They are definitely English nationalists.
    Can you give me a citation please on the EDL believing that England should be independent and apart from Scotland? I've never heard anything about that from them.

    They're racist scumbags. No more and no less, don't enlighten them as to being anything other that racist bigots.
    No I can't, but the clue's in the name, I suspect - what's the E stand for? No mention of Scotland (or Wales for that matter). I suspect they'd be happy to allow the sectarian Unionists of NI to belong, though.
    So you can't, good, and no the clue is not in the name. The name England does not make you an England nationalist. Is the England football team full of England nationalists? The England Cricket Team? The ECB?

    They're racist shithead scum. I've never seen anything from them on English independence and neither have you, so that doesn't make them nationalists.
    I should have known better than to engage with you. Bonkers and pointless comparisons.
    I’m afraid Philip is correct. Simply having the name English in the name of an organisation does not automatically make it nationalist.

    Eg. the Scottish National Trust is a deeply Unionist and conservative organisation
    The African National Congress does not seek a United Africa (AFAIAA)
    The British Library is not a British nationalist organisation
    The English National Opera is not English nationalist

    Would it be fair to query why they apparently want to leave Wales, Scotland and N Ireland undefended if they want to keep the UK together?
    I fear I must report that there are both Scottish and Welsh Defence Leagues closely associated with their English bredren. Presumably they think the Norns have enough violent extremists to be going on with.
  • Options
    Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,540
    edited August 2021

    kinabalu said:

    OK @kinabalu I have looked into and done a statistical analysis of English nationalist sentiment and the far right.

    I have taken the UK's best political blog as a point of reference. There are unabashed English nationalists on this website that post here.

    You have in your own judgement determined that there are not any English nationalist far right posters on here.

    Therefore by a rigorous statistical analysis, there is an r^2 value of 0 correlating English nationalism with the far right, as per this website and your own opinion.

    Case closed.

    That's a reasaonable first tack - to look at here. And it's not zero, not at all. There's a couple on 'Watch' as I said - loose use of couple as in 3 or 4 - and plus there's some unsavouries who've been banned in recent weeks. So I'd say this is enough to continue our investigation rather than any sort of excuse to shut it down. YOUR investigation, I mean, since I've already done it.
    On a more general note there do seem to be people extremely concerned about far right extremists in the UK. Of course these extremists may have absolutely nothing to do with English Nationalism, but just enjoy prancing about in jackboots and being down on brown people.

    'Fastest-growing UK terror threat 'from far-right''

    'Violent right-wing extremism is a ‘major threat’ in the UK, MI5 boss says'

    'Future Trends: Far-Right Terrorism in the UK – A Major Threat?'

    'Racism fuelling far-right threat in UK - MI5's Ken McCallum warns'
    What has any of that whatsoever got to do with English nationalism?

    There is an issue with far right extremism but that's got nothing to do with the belief that England should be a self-governing nation.
    Q. Are the English Defence League English nationalists?
    No.
    Bit shocking that you're deciding that people who at various times have described themselves as English nationalists are wrong about this. More than a whiff of the metropolitan elite talking down to the fruitcakes and loonies and closet racists.
    English nationalism is the belief that England should be a self-governing, independent nation. That's what the word means.

    I see nothing from the EDL to say they have that belief. All I see from them is racism. I don't care what they self-identify as, or what flag they try to misappropriate, if they're not advocating for that then they're not English nationalists.
    The EDL do believe that England should be a self-governing, independent nation.

    They just don't believe it should include 'foreigners', particularly those from one particular religious background. Not very far to the right of Farage, his fellow travellers and those who have ever voted for him.

    They are definitely English nationalists.
    Can you give me a citation please on the EDL believing that England should be independent and apart from Scotland? I've never heard anything about that from them.

    They're racist scumbags. No more and no less, don't enlighten them as to being anything other that racist bigots.
    No I can't, but the clue's in the name, I suspect - what's the E stand for? No mention of Scotland (or Wales for that matter). I suspect they'd be happy to allow the sectarian Unionists of NI to belong, though.
    So you can't, good, and no the clue is not in the name. The name England does not make you an England nationalist. Is the England football team full of England nationalists? The England Cricket Team? The ECB?

    They're racist shithead scum. I've never seen anything from them on English independence and neither have you, so that doesn't make them nationalists.
    I should have known better than to engage with you. Bonkers and pointless comparisons.
    I’m afraid Philip is correct. Simply having the name English in the name of an organisation does not automatically make it nationalist.

    Eg. the Scottish National Trust is a deeply Unionist and conservative organisation
    The African National Congress does not seek a United Africa (AFAIAA)
    The British Library is not a British nationalist organisation
    The English National Opera is not English nationalist

    I can't believe that I got embroiled in this discussion. The idea that the English Defence League isn't an English nationalist party that doesn't want to Defend, er, England specifically (rather than Scotland, Wales or Britain) is ludicrous. I believe you can be both nationalist and fascist.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,404
    felix said:

    kinabalu said:

    OK @kinabalu I have looked into and done a statistical analysis of English nationalist sentiment and the far right.

    I have taken the UK's best political blog as a point of reference. There are unabashed English nationalists on this website that post here.

    You have in your own judgement determined that there are not any English nationalist far right posters on here.

    Therefore by a rigorous statistical analysis, there is an r^2 value of 0 correlating English nationalism with the far right, as per this website and your own opinion.

    Case closed.

    That's a reasaonable first tack - to look at here. And it's not zero, not at all. There's a couple on 'Watch' as I said - loose use of couple as in 3 or 4 - and plus there's some unsavouries who've been banned in recent weeks. So I'd say this is enough to continue our investigation rather than any sort of excuse to shut it down. YOUR investigation, I mean, since I've already done it.
    On a more general note there do seem to be people extremely concerned about far right extremists in the UK. Of course these extremists may have absolutely nothing to do with English Nationalism, but just enjoy prancing about in jackboots and being down on brown people.

    'Fastest-growing UK terror threat 'from far-right''

    'Violent right-wing extremism is a ‘major threat’ in the UK, MI5 boss says'

    'Future Trends: Far-Right Terrorism in the UK – A Major Threat?'

    'Racism fuelling far-right threat in UK - MI5's Ken McCallum warns'
    What has any of that whatsoever got to do with English nationalism?

    There is an issue with far right extremism but that's got nothing to do with the belief that England should be a self-governing nation.
    Q. Are the English Defence League English nationalists?
    No.
    Bit shocking that you're deciding that people who at various times have described themselves as English nationalists are wrong about this. More than a whiff of the metropolitan elite talking down to the fruitcakes and loonies and closet racists.
    English nationalism is the belief that England should be a self-governing, independent nation. That's what the word means.

    I see nothing from the EDL to say they have that belief. All I see from them is racism. I don't care what they self-identify as, or what flag they try to misappropriate, if they're not advocating for that then they're not English nationalists.
    The EDL do believe that England should be a self-governing, independent nation.

    They just don't believe it should include 'foreigners', particularly those from one particular religious background. Not very far to the right of Farage, his fellow travellers and those who have ever voted for him.

    They are definitely English nationalists.
    Can you give me a citation please on the EDL believing that England should be independent and apart from Scotland? I've never heard anything about that from them.

    They're racist scumbags. No more and no less, don't enlighten them as to being anything other that racist bigots.
    No I can't, but the clue's in the name, I suspect - what's the E stand for? No mention of Scotland (or Wales for that matter). I suspect they'd be happy to allow the sectarian Unionists of NI to belong, though.
    So you can't, good, and no the clue is not in the name. The name England does not make you an England nationalist. Is the England football team full of England nationalists? The England Cricket Team? The ECB?

    They're racist shithead scum. I've never seen anything from them on English independence and neither have you, so that doesn't make them nationalists.
    I should have known better than to engage with you. Bonkers and pointless comparisons.
    I’m afraid Philip is correct. Simply having the name English in the name of an organisation does not automatically make it nationalist.

    Eg. the Scottish National Trust is a deeply Unionist and conservative organisation
    The African National Congress does not seek a United Africa (AFAIAA)
    The British Library is not a British nationalist organisation
    The English National Opera is not English nationalist

    The Royal Ballet is not a monarchist front!
    Hmmmm....

    - Royal in the name
    - Extreme dedication to fitness
    - Regimentation
    - Some quite militaristic themes in some productions....

    Are you sure?
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    MattW said:

    Talking of green policies, we've just had a preliminary estimate for installing a heat pump system for Chez Nabavi.

    Gulp!!!

    On your heatpump, have you a decent offer of Green Homes Grant?

    The way to do it is to make sure your fabric is as good as possible, which then requires a much smaller heatpump, and to run your own heat model first as they like to sell expensive ones.

    On heatpumps, the Guardian currently has a survey asking for experiences with heatpumps.

    https://forum.buildhub.org.uk/topic/22484-the-guardian-are-asking-for-experience-with-heat-pumps-questionnaire/?tab=comments#comment-351445
    It's a large, draughty, listed building, getting it up to a standard of good insulation would be near-impossible. At best it would require complete gutting of the place, and is not practical whilst we live here even if it could be done without spoiling the building and we could get listed building consent for it.

    But we haven't even really got that far, we're just trying at this stage to get a very preliminary idea of costings. Ouch, ouch!

    I feel that maybe a hybrid heat-pump/oil system would be more practical, especially since we don't need to heat the whole house all the time.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,627
    Ipsos Mori is a good poll for the LDs on 13%, not so good for Labour on 30%.
  • Options
    contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    Foss said:

    I think we're probably getting to the end of silly season and we're about to see the start of the first big post covid crisis to enter the public consciousness - U.S. Asks Taliban to Spare Its Embassy in Coming Fight for Kabul.

    Could Biden lose the next election on this? Vietnam II
    NYTimes did a piece on that and thought not. Most americans support getting out and have for a while. Trump will struggle to attack the results as he started the process.
    Domestic inflation is becoming a worry for Biden. The Fed thinks price increases are only temporary as the economy recovers, but hmmn.


  • Options

    kinabalu said:

    OK @kinabalu I have looked into and done a statistical analysis of English nationalist sentiment and the far right.

    I have taken the UK's best political blog as a point of reference. There are unabashed English nationalists on this website that post here.

    You have in your own judgement determined that there are not any English nationalist far right posters on here.

    Therefore by a rigorous statistical analysis, there is an r^2 value of 0 correlating English nationalism with the far right, as per this website and your own opinion.

    Case closed.

    That's a reasaonable first tack - to look at here. And it's not zero, not at all. There's a couple on 'Watch' as I said - loose use of couple as in 3 or 4 - and plus there's some unsavouries who've been banned in recent weeks. So I'd say this is enough to continue our investigation rather than any sort of excuse to shut it down. YOUR investigation, I mean, since I've already done it.
    On a more general note there do seem to be people extremely concerned about far right extremists in the UK. Of course these extremists may have absolutely nothing to do with English Nationalism, but just enjoy prancing about in jackboots and being down on brown people.

    'Fastest-growing UK terror threat 'from far-right''

    'Violent right-wing extremism is a ‘major threat’ in the UK, MI5 boss says'

    'Future Trends: Far-Right Terrorism in the UK – A Major Threat?'

    'Racism fuelling far-right threat in UK - MI5's Ken McCallum warns'
    What has any of that whatsoever got to do with English nationalism?

    There is an issue with far right extremism but that's got nothing to do with the belief that England should be a self-governing nation.
    Q. Are the English Defence League English nationalists?
    No.
    Bit shocking that you're deciding that people who at various times have described themselves as English nationalists are wrong about this. More than a whiff of the metropolitan elite talking down to the fruitcakes and loonies and closet racists.
    English nationalism is the belief that England should be a self-governing, independent nation. That's what the word means.

    I see nothing from the EDL to say they have that belief. All I see from them is racism. I don't care what they self-identify as, or what flag they try to misappropriate, if they're not advocating for that then they're not English nationalists.
    The EDL do believe that England should be a self-governing, independent nation.

    They just don't believe it should include 'foreigners', particularly those from one particular religious background. Not very far to the right of Farage, his fellow travellers and those who have ever voted for him.

    They are definitely English nationalists.
    Can you give me a citation please on the EDL believing that England should be independent and apart from Scotland? I've never heard anything about that from them.

    They're racist scumbags. No more and no less, don't enlighten them as to being anything other that racist bigots.
    No I can't, but the clue's in the name, I suspect - what's the E stand for? No mention of Scotland (or Wales for that matter). I suspect they'd be happy to allow the sectarian Unionists of NI to belong, though.
    So you can't, good, and no the clue is not in the name. The name England does not make you an England nationalist. Is the England football team full of England nationalists? The England Cricket Team? The ECB?

    They're racist shithead scum. I've never seen anything from them on English independence and neither have you, so that doesn't make them nationalists.
    I should have known better than to engage with you. Bonkers and pointless comparisons.
    You're the one who claimed that them having England in their name makes them England nationalists. That surely applies to the ECB too then?

    England != nationalist. Nationalist means a belief that should be an independent country, that's what it means. Unless the EDL want a divorce with Scotland, as I do and as Scottish nationalists do, they're not nationalists.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,188
    Athens anecdata

    Parts of it completely rammed with tourists. As it was 2 summers ago

    Half a km away: desolation. Shuttered street after shuttered street. I guess that’s what a ten year Depression does, followed by a global plague

  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,627
    Leon said:

    Athens anecdata

    Parts of it completely rammed with tourists. As it was 2 summers ago

    Half a km away: desolation. Shuttered street after shuttered street. I guess that’s what a ten year Depression does, followed by a global plague

    Why the difference between different areas though?
  • Options
    NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,347
    Andy_JS said:

    Ipsos Mori is a good poll for the LDs on 13%, not so good for Labour on 30%.

    How do Labour win a GE from here?
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,188
    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Athens anecdata

    Parts of it completely rammed with tourists. As it was 2 summers ago

    Half a km away: desolation. Shuttered street after shuttered street. I guess that’s what a ten year Depression does, followed by a global plague

    Why the difference between different areas though?
    The old town/acropolis thrives. Some business districts and even some quite upmarket residential areas look like bits of Tunis. Graffiti everywhere. Streets crumble
  • Options
    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,442
    TOPPING said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    LDs turn hawk, attacking Biden for abandoning Afghanistan.

    Davey is clearly a classicial liberal in the Paddy Ashdown, Gladstone mode, fiscally conservative, internationalist and interventionist abroad but pro civil liberties and good on him. This is no longer the more social democratic, pacifist party of Charles Kennedy, most of them are now in Labour or the Greens
    https://twitter.com/LibDems/status/1425827915455942656?s=20

    The timing for such a party is ripe because the new political polarities are morphing from left versus right to freedom versus control.
    Interesting thought.

    There is something of an authoritarian wing to even the LDs. This afternoon on Lib Dem voice there is a piece arguing that there should be Carbon Rationing for each person, and therefore the means to monitor it, justified by rationing in WW2.
    https://www.libdemvoice.org/taking-decisive-climate-action-68380.html
    Yeah the LibDems will want you to have a personal carbon metre to measure everything you do and then cut off all activity when you have reached your daily limit.

    Quite why @kinabalu chose them as a party goodness only knows.
    I'll have my personal carbon metre in the diamond allotrope, please :wink:
  • Options
    Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,540

    Andy_JS said:

    Ipsos Mori is a good poll for the LDs on 13%, not so good for Labour on 30%.

    How do Labour win a GE from here?
    By getting a lot more votes than the Tories?
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,973
    Sandpit said:

    Scottish ferries update: The interim CEO brought in to manage the shipyard after it was nationalised, was expected to be there for a couple of months at £2,500 a day. He’s still there two years and £1.3m later… Nice work if you can get it.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/08/11/boss-shipyard-nationalised-nicola-sturgeon-paid-2500-day/

    Must be a friend of someone in high places.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,973

    Foxy said:

    malcolmg said:

    Fishing said:

    I'm not sure it'll be as damaging as people think, politically speaking, just because it's so difficult to justify an 8% increase for the old at a time when the young are getting completely screwed.

    The Triple Lock, like the FTPA and so much else the Heir to Blair did is long overdue for the scrapheap.

    The young are just greedy whiney no marks. Get out and work like the pensioners did and earn your own money. A days work would be too much for most of the pampered jessies. Back in the day when men were men , we did not plot how to rob our granny , we got out there and worked our socks off, no handed it on a plate in those days.
    Enjoy it while it last Malc, you won't get anything near as generous in indyScotland...
    Don’t you start the too wee, too poor, too stupid nonsense Foxy. You’re a better man than that.
    The truth hurts
    Yes England is rich , the 3 trillion is just imaginary. Adjust those rosy Tory specs.
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    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,442

    isam said:

    felix said:

    felix said:


    CON: 41% (+2)
    LAB: 33% (-1)

    via @YouGov


    CON: 41% (+1)
    LAB: 33% (-1)

    via @SavantaComRes

    The polls are all over the place
    Those 2 are all over the same place!
    And the other one out today is 41-30 Con over Lab, with Sir Keir on -26 net satisfaction.
    I'm expecting the next thread on here to be about these polls.
    Why release a Starmer is crap header when every thread evolves into a Starmer is crap thread anyway?

    For consistency Starmer is indeed crap, which is a disappointing shame.
    Starmer's crapness is not sufficient to explain the polling. It is the perception and the reality of the contemporary Labour Party that is giving the Tories an undeserved boost.
    The problem isn't that Starmer is crap. He is a blank canvas - no one knows what "Starmerism" is.
    So was Cameron, in many ways. He only got elected because Labour cocked up/Labour were holding the ball when it all went wrong (delete as appropriate). He detoxified the Conservatives, but I'd be hard pressed to define Cameronism.

    I still think Starmer has a chance if (a) one of the governments cock-ups really hits normal people (or a post-Covid global economic shitshow happens) and (b) he can get rid of, or at least keep quiet, the loons in Labour. I don't think the combination of those is particularly likely and he might also need a (c) of the Tories defenstrating Johnson and picking someone less electable, as Labour did with Blair -> Brown.
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,097
    edited August 2021
    Leon said:

    Athens anecdata

    Parts of it completely rammed with tourists. As it was 2 summers ago

    Half a km away: desolation. Shuttered street after shuttered street. I guess that’s what a ten year Depression does, followed by a global plague

    There was a programme on R4 a couple of years ago on the phenomenon of down at heel, impoverished urban areas (Brooklyn, Kreuzberg, various London neighbourhoods) becoming artistic hot spots; squats, cheap property, cheap to live etc, with the concomitant gentrification following. They suggested Athens was set to become the next big thing, any sign of that?
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    NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,311
    dixiedean said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Matt Goodwin
    @GoodwinMJ

    Immigration is now the TOP issue for British Conservative voters"

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1425566046837256193

    Goodwin loves it. He started off some years ago as an academic analyst of social divisions, now his main leitmotif seems to be to promote such divisions.

    But I suspect it's not really immigration at all, is it? 'Immigration' is just a proxy for asylum seekers/refugees crossing the Channel. Not at all the same thing as immigration.

    Lazy polling, and lazy tweeting.
    Immigration is often a proxy marker for "people not like me".
    Surely just the main issues of the day - collapse of rule of law in Afghanistan, Covid variants risk to the country, summer season of illegal channel crossings. Outside of Covid which is vastly improved these have been the stories of the last few weeks
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,609

    “Senior Biden officials finding that Covid lab leak theory at least as credible as natural origins explanation”

    https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/16/politics/biden-intel-review-covid-origins/index.html

    Credible, certainly. But not probable.
    From the link:
    ...Current intelligence reinforces the belief that the virus most likely originated naturally, from animal-human contact and was not deliberately engineered, the sources said. But that does not preclude the possibility that the virus was the result of an accidental leak from the Wuhan Institute of Virology, where coronavirus research was being conducted on bats...
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Selebian said:


    [snip]
    So was Cameron, in many ways. He only got elected because Labour cocked up/Labour were holding the ball when it all went wrong (delete as appropriate). He detoxified the Conservatives, but I'd be hard pressed to define Cameronism.
    ...

    You've just defined it.

    And it's not true that he got elected because Labour were holding the ball when it all went wrong - he was going to win anyway. If anything, the global financial crisis helped Brown (ironically).
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,404
    Selebian said:

    isam said:

    felix said:

    felix said:


    CON: 41% (+2)
    LAB: 33% (-1)

    via @YouGov


    CON: 41% (+1)
    LAB: 33% (-1)

    via @SavantaComRes

    The polls are all over the place
    Those 2 are all over the same place!
    And the other one out today is 41-30 Con over Lab, with Sir Keir on -26 net satisfaction.
    I'm expecting the next thread on here to be about these polls.
    Why release a Starmer is crap header when every thread evolves into a Starmer is crap thread anyway?

    For consistency Starmer is indeed crap, which is a disappointing shame.
    Starmer's crapness is not sufficient to explain the polling. It is the perception and the reality of the contemporary Labour Party that is giving the Tories an undeserved boost.
    The problem isn't that Starmer is crap. He is a blank canvas - no one knows what "Starmerism" is.
    So was Cameron, in many ways. He only got elected because Labour cocked up/Labour were holding the ball when it all went wrong (delete as appropriate). He detoxified the Conservatives, but I'd be hard pressed to define Cameronism.

    I still think Starmer has a chance if (a) one of the governments cock-ups really hits normal people (or a post-Covid global economic shitshow happens) and (b) he can get rid of, or at least keep quiet, the loons in Labour. I don't think the combination of those is particularly likely and he might also need a (c) of the Tories defenstrating Johnson and picking someone less electable, as Labour did with Blair -> Brown.
    Cameron actually put forward an aggressive campaign of defining himself & and the Party - green stuff, Rwanda, binning people for being part of the Nasty Party etc etc...

    If Starmer started doing Starmer Direct talks with groups of the public....

    Cameron didn't just sit there and wait for everyone to decide that since it was a choice between the blank slate and Brown....
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited August 2021
    From Googling it, it appears that Tommy Robinson and the EDL opposed Scottish independence, they didn't support it. They also have sister organisations the WDL and SDL in Wales and Scotland.

    So no, they're not English nationalists. They're racists and that's all they are. They're no more nationalists, than Nazis are socialists.
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,613

    Andy_JS said:

    Ipsos Mori is a good poll for the LDs on 13%, not so good for Labour on 30%.

    How do Labour win a GE from here?
    By getting a lot more votes than the Tories?
    Labour don't need to win. It is enough for the Tories to lose.
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820


    Cameron actually put forward an aggressive campaign of defining himself & and the Party - green stuff, Rwanda, binning people for being part of the Nasty Party etc etc...

    If Starmer started doing Starmer Direct talks with groups of the public....

    Cameron didn't just sit there and wait for everyone to decide that since it was a choice between the blank slate and Brown....

    Also, a huge amount of work went into policy development and ensuring that the team as a whole was credible, rather as Blair's team did in the run up to '97. Labour today hasn't even got to the early planning stage on that, let alone reached base camp.
  • Options
    QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949
    edited August 2021
    Fascinating poll question here, getting to the heart of the cultural class divide perhaps.

    https://twitter.com/chriscurtis94/status/1425850191354138625
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,667

    MattW said:

    Talking of green policies, we've just had a preliminary estimate for installing a heat pump system for Chez Nabavi.

    Gulp!!!

    On your heatpump, have you a decent offer of Green Homes Grant?

    The way to do it is to make sure your fabric is as good as possible, which then requires a much smaller heatpump, and to run your own heat model first as they like to sell expensive ones.

    On heatpumps, the Guardian currently has a survey asking for experiences with heatpumps.

    https://forum.buildhub.org.uk/topic/22484-the-guardian-are-asking-for-experience-with-heat-pumps-questionnaire/?tab=comments#comment-351445
    It's a large, draughty, listed building, getting it up to a standard of good insulation would be near-impossible. At best it would require complete gutting of the place, and is not practical whilst we live here even if it could be done without spoiling the building and we could get listed building consent for it.

    But we haven't even really got that far, we're just trying at this stage to get a very preliminary idea of costings. Ouch, ouch!

    I feel that maybe a hybrid heat-pump/oil system would be more practical, especially since we don't need to heat the whole house all the time.
    We bought our air source heat pump (Mitsubishi Ecodan 8.5) new off eBay and got our local plumber to install it. Installed it in 2010 and it's been working fine ever since.

    The biggest issue with heat pumps is you ideally want underfloor heating for them to operate most efficiently, and that involves major upheaval.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,667
    Quincel said:

    Fascinating poll question here, getting to the heart of the cultural class divide perhaps.


    I'm going to check that out in minute detail.
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,613

    felix said:

    kinabalu said:

    OK @kinabalu I have looked into and done a statistical analysis of English nationalist sentiment and the far right.

    I have taken the UK's best political blog as a point of reference. There are unabashed English nationalists on this website that post here.

    You have in your own judgement determined that there are not any English nationalist far right posters on here.

    Therefore by a rigorous statistical analysis, there is an r^2 value of 0 correlating English nationalism with the far right, as per this website and your own opinion.

    Case closed.

    That's a reasaonable first tack - to look at here. And it's not zero, not at all. There's a couple on 'Watch' as I said - loose use of couple as in 3 or 4 - and plus there's some unsavouries who've been banned in recent weeks. So I'd say this is enough to continue our investigation rather than any sort of excuse to shut it down. YOUR investigation, I mean, since I've already done it.
    On a more general note there do seem to be people extremely concerned about far right extremists in the UK. Of course these extremists may have absolutely nothing to do with English Nationalism, but just enjoy prancing about in jackboots and being down on brown people.

    'Fastest-growing UK terror threat 'from far-right''

    'Violent right-wing extremism is a ‘major threat’ in the UK, MI5 boss says'

    'Future Trends: Far-Right Terrorism in the UK – A Major Threat?'

    'Racism fuelling far-right threat in UK - MI5's Ken McCallum warns'
    What has any of that whatsoever got to do with English nationalism?

    There is an issue with far right extremism but that's got nothing to do with the belief that England should be a self-governing nation.
    Q. Are the English Defence League English nationalists?
    No.
    Bit shocking that you're deciding that people who at various times have described themselves as English nationalists are wrong about this. More than a whiff of the metropolitan elite talking down to the fruitcakes and loonies and closet racists.
    English nationalism is the belief that England should be a self-governing, independent nation. That's what the word means.

    I see nothing from the EDL to say they have that belief. All I see from them is racism. I don't care what they self-identify as, or what flag they try to misappropriate, if they're not advocating for that then they're not English nationalists.
    The EDL do believe that England should be a self-governing, independent nation.

    They just don't believe it should include 'foreigners', particularly those from one particular religious background. Not very far to the right of Farage, his fellow travellers and those who have ever voted for him.

    They are definitely English nationalists.
    Can you give me a citation please on the EDL believing that England should be independent and apart from Scotland? I've never heard anything about that from them.

    They're racist scumbags. No more and no less, don't enlighten them as to being anything other that racist bigots.
    No I can't, but the clue's in the name, I suspect - what's the E stand for? No mention of Scotland (or Wales for that matter). I suspect they'd be happy to allow the sectarian Unionists of NI to belong, though.
    So you can't, good, and no the clue is not in the name. The name England does not make you an England nationalist. Is the England football team full of England nationalists? The England Cricket Team? The ECB?

    They're racist shithead scum. I've never seen anything from them on English independence and neither have you, so that doesn't make them nationalists.
    I should have known better than to engage with you. Bonkers and pointless comparisons.
    I’m afraid Philip is correct. Simply having the name English in the name of an organisation does not automatically make it nationalist.

    Eg. the Scottish National Trust is a deeply Unionist and conservative organisation
    The African National Congress does not seek a United Africa (AFAIAA)
    The British Library is not a British nationalist organisation
    The English National Opera is not English nationalist

    The Royal Ballet is not a monarchist front!
    Hmmmm....

    - Royal in the name
    - Extreme dedication to fitness
    - Regimentation
    - Some quite militaristic themes in some productions....

    Are you sure?
    Who Echappé Wins
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,404


    Cameron actually put forward an aggressive campaign of defining himself & and the Party - green stuff, Rwanda, binning people for being part of the Nasty Party etc etc...

    If Starmer started doing Starmer Direct talks with groups of the public....

    Cameron didn't just sit there and wait for everyone to decide that since it was a choice between the blank slate and Brown....

    Also, a huge amount of work went into policy development and ensuring that the team as a whole was credible, rather as Blair's team did in the run up to '97. Labour today hasn't even got to the early planning stage on that, let alone reached base camp.
    Part of the problem for Labour is that many supporters believe that Blair didn't stand for anything. That the whole thing was just an image manipulation exercise.

    1997 happened because he created something to vote *for*.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,609
    ydoethur said:

    I wonder if Joe Root is regretting putting India in. They’ve nearly got enough for the innings win already.

    Perhaps he just has a thing about setting himself a challenge ?
  • Options
    QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949

    Quincel said:

    Fascinating poll question here, getting to the heart of the cultural class divide perhaps.


    I'm going to check that out in minute detail.
    Yes, I've had to link to the Tweet instead after the image, er...!
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,992
    edited August 2021
    Well.

    I don't like what the French did WRT to Covid vaccines, but there's no doubt it's working.

    According to yesterday's data drop (https://www.has-sante.fr/jcms/p_3178533/en/vaccination-dans-le-cadre-de-la-covid-19_), France is now up to 84.6% of adults having had at least one dose of the vaccine.

    Edit to add -
    Numbers best seen here https://vaccinetracker.ecdc.europa.eu/public/extensions/COVID-19/vaccine-tracker.html#national-ref-tab
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,743
    Quincel said:

    Fascinating poll question here, getting to the heart of the cultural class divide perhaps.

    https://twitter.com/chriscurtis94/status/1425850191354138625

    Not really, the divides are young/old and urban/rural. Car ownership is simply another proxy not at the heart of it.
  • Options
    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,442

    Selebian said:


    [snip]
    So was Cameron, in many ways. He only got elected because Labour cocked up/Labour were holding the ball when it all went wrong (delete as appropriate). He detoxified the Conservatives, but I'd be hard pressed to define Cameronism.
    ...

    You've just defined it.

    And it's not true that he got elected because Labour were holding the ball when it all went wrong - he was going to win anyway. If anything, the global financial crisis helped Brown (ironically).
    Hmm, just looking at the polling. Probably the turning point was the election that never was (or else it was always going to be a short Brown bump for Labour).

    Not much evidence for my position in the polling, as far as I can see, so I'll admit that was wrong.

    As for Cameronism, there's nothing wrong with ideology-free 'let's not be nutters and just try and make sensible choices' (indeed, that describes my preferred party). He did rather spoil it with the whole EU referendum thing though!
  • Options
    StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    Talking of green policies, we've just had a preliminary estimate for installing a heat pump system for Chez Nabavi.

    Gulp!!!

    All Swedish detached houses have them. We replaced ours a couple of years ago. It was only 12 years old. 15 years seems to be typical lifespan.

    A fiddle to maintain and Top Tip: look out for decibels! The cheap ones are significantly noisier than the pricey ones.

    I think ours (Nibe) was about 55.000 SEK, including labour and removal old pump (IVT).
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,743
    rcs1000 said:

    Well.

    I don't like what the French did WRT to Covid vaccines, but there's no doubt it's working.

    According to yesterday's data drop (https://www.has-sante.fr/jcms/p_3178533/en/vaccination-dans-le-cadre-de-la-covid-19_), France is now up to 84.6% of adults having had at least one dose of the vaccine.

    Edit to add -
    Numbers best seen here https://vaccinetracker.ecdc.europa.eu/public/extensions/COVID-19/vaccine-tracker.html#national-ref-tab

    Quasi effective policy implementation.
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    rcs1000 said:

    Well.

    I don't like what the French did WRT to Covid vaccines, but there's no doubt it's working.

    According to yesterday's data drop (https://www.has-sante.fr/jcms/p_3178533/en/vaccination-dans-le-cadre-de-la-covid-19_), France is now up to 84.6% of adults having had at least one dose of the vaccine.

    I posted some months ago that, despite the figures then showing big resistance to getting vaccinated, the French would meekly* fall in line and get jabbed up once the government made it quasi-mandatory. The French like to think of themselves as individualistic rebels, but it's a myth. They grumble and obey.

    *apart from the odd riot, obv, because that's a national hobby
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,613

    Quincel said:

    Fascinating poll question here, getting to the heart of the cultural class divide perhaps.

    https://twitter.com/chriscurtis94/status/1425850191354138625

    Not really, the divides are young/old and urban/rural. Car ownership is simply another proxy not at the heart of it.
    But it does explain why Tory chancellors keep freezing fuel duty.
  • Options
    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,779

    Andy_JS said:

    Ipsos Mori is a good poll for the LDs on 13%, not so good for Labour on 30%.

    How do Labour win a GE from here?
    By getting a lot more votes than the Tories?
    Labour don't need to win. It is enough for the Tories to lose.
    That's certainly the way things are working out now.
  • Options
    Selebian said:

    isam said:

    felix said:

    felix said:


    CON: 41% (+2)
    LAB: 33% (-1)

    via @YouGov


    CON: 41% (+1)
    LAB: 33% (-1)

    via @SavantaComRes

    The polls are all over the place
    Those 2 are all over the same place!
    And the other one out today is 41-30 Con over Lab, with Sir Keir on -26 net satisfaction.
    I'm expecting the next thread on here to be about these polls.
    Why release a Starmer is crap header when every thread evolves into a Starmer is crap thread anyway?

    For consistency Starmer is indeed crap, which is a disappointing shame.
    Starmer's crapness is not sufficient to explain the polling. It is the perception and the reality of the contemporary Labour Party that is giving the Tories an undeserved boost.
    The problem isn't that Starmer is crap. He is a blank canvas - no one knows what "Starmerism" is.
    So was Cameron, in many ways. He only got elected because Labour cocked up/Labour were holding the ball when it all went wrong (delete as appropriate). He detoxified the Conservatives, but I'd be hard pressed to define Cameronism.

    I still think Starmer has a chance if (a) one of the governments cock-ups really hits normal people (or a post-Covid global economic shitshow happens) and (b) he can get rid of, or at least keep quiet, the loons in Labour. I don't think the combination of those is particularly likely and he might also need a (c) of the Tories defenstrating Johnson and picking someone less electable, as Labour did with Blair -> Brown.
    That's the funny thing about blank canvases.

    My hunch is that a lot of Sunak's popularity is the sense that he's a blank screen that people can project their hopes onto. He will level up Mytown. He will be frugal. He'll be nicer than Johnson.

    Starmer, on the other hand, is suffering from having negatives projected onto him. Some of them fair enough (he does need a more compelling vision than "one step saner than Johnson") some of them making you wonder about those doing the projecting (whatever his faults, he's clearly a plausible PM in a way that Corbyn wasn't and Johnson isn't really).

    For all the whining about his performance, it's still the case that governments lose elections. All the opposition can do is prepare to look sensible when the spotlight falls on them, and that hasn't really happened yet. But there are still a centipede's worth of shoes to drop for the good ship Bozza.

    Being LotO sucks as a job. It's why wise parties exert themselves to avoid going into opposition.
  • Options
    contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818


    Cameron actually put forward an aggressive campaign of defining himself & and the Party - green stuff, Rwanda, binning people for being part of the Nasty Party etc etc...

    If Starmer started doing Starmer Direct talks with groups of the public....

    Cameron didn't just sit there and wait for everyone to decide that since it was a choice between the blank slate and Brown....

    Also, a huge amount of work went into policy development and ensuring that the team as a whole was credible, rather as Blair's team did in the run up to '97. Labour today hasn't even got to the early planning stage on that, let alone reached base camp.
    Part of the problem for Labour is that many supporters believe that Blair didn't stand for anything. That the whole thing was just an image manipulation exercise.

    1997 happened because he created something to vote *for*.
    No mainstream party is offering anything to vote ''for''

    Its wall to wall dire warnings, higher taxes, bigger bills and conditional pleasures.

    Who knows, perhaps people may not vote for that.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,627

    Quincel said:

    Fascinating poll question here, getting to the heart of the cultural class divide perhaps.

    https://twitter.com/chriscurtis94/status/1425850191354138625

    Not really, the divides are young/old and urban/rural. Car ownership is simply another proxy not at the heart of it.
    Yes, Chris Curtis ought to know that.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,627

    Andy_JS said:

    Ipsos Mori is a good poll for the LDs on 13%, not so good for Labour on 30%.

    How do Labour win a GE from here?
    Form a coalition with the LDs and Greens.
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    Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,540


    Cameron actually put forward an aggressive campaign of defining himself & and the Party - green stuff, Rwanda, binning people for being part of the Nasty Party etc etc...

    If Starmer started doing Starmer Direct talks with groups of the public....

    Cameron didn't just sit there and wait for everyone to decide that since it was a choice between the blank slate and Brown....

    Also, a huge amount of work went into policy development and ensuring that the team as a whole was credible, rather as Blair's team did in the run up to '97. Labour today hasn't even got to the early planning stage on that, let alone reached base camp.
    Almost totally fair, but not quite. Within Labour there is an awful lot of work going on in policy development at the moment; it's yet to see the light of day, though. I'd expect the first outlines of a coherent policy offer to start emerging at Conference in September.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,065

    Talking of green policies, we've just had a preliminary estimate for installing a heat pump system for Chez Nabavi.

    Gulp!!!

    All Swedish detached houses have them. We replaced ours a couple of years ago. It was only 12 years old. 15 years seems to be typical lifespan.

    A fiddle to maintain and Top Tip: look out for decibels! The cheap ones are significantly noisier than the pricey ones.

    I think ours (Nibe) was about 55.000 SEK, including labour and removal old pump (IVT).
    If everyone in a densely populated area is using an air-source heat pump, it must end up lowering the ambient temperature outside?
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,992

    Talking of green policies, we've just had a preliminary estimate for installing a heat pump system for Chez Nabavi.

    Gulp!!!

    All Swedish detached houses have them. We replaced ours a couple of years ago. It was only 12 years old. 15 years seems to be typical lifespan.

    A fiddle to maintain and Top Tip: look out for decibels! The cheap ones are significantly noisier than the pricey ones.

    I think ours (Nibe) was about 55.000 SEK, including labour and removal old pump (IVT).
    If everyone in a densely populated area is using an air-source heat pump, it must end up lowering the ambient temperature outside?
    Surely it would increase it: it's bringing heat from deep earth to the surface.
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    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,197
    Selebian said:

    TOPPING said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    LDs turn hawk, attacking Biden for abandoning Afghanistan.

    Davey is clearly a classicial liberal in the Paddy Ashdown, Gladstone mode, fiscally conservative, internationalist and interventionist abroad but pro civil liberties and good on him. This is no longer the more social democratic, pacifist party of Charles Kennedy, most of them are now in Labour or the Greens
    https://twitter.com/LibDems/status/1425827915455942656?s=20

    The timing for such a party is ripe because the new political polarities are morphing from left versus right to freedom versus control.
    Interesting thought.

    There is something of an authoritarian wing to even the LDs. This afternoon on Lib Dem voice there is a piece arguing that there should be Carbon Rationing for each person, and therefore the means to monitor it, justified by rationing in WW2.
    https://www.libdemvoice.org/taking-decisive-climate-action-68380.html
    Yeah the LibDems will want you to have a personal carbon metre to measure everything you do and then cut off all activity when you have reached your daily limit.

    Quite why @kinabalu chose them as a party goodness only knows.
    I'll have my personal carbon metre in the diamond allotrope, please :wink:
    Now you see I saw that slip and was the bigger man for not jumping on it. Feel like I missed a chance now... In the fullereneness of time I may regret it.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820

    Talking of green policies, we've just had a preliminary estimate for installing a heat pump system for Chez Nabavi.

    Gulp!!!

    All Swedish detached houses have them. We replaced ours a couple of years ago. It was only 12 years old. 15 years seems to be typical lifespan.

    A fiddle to maintain and Top Tip: look out for decibels! The cheap ones are significantly noisier than the pricey ones.

    I think ours (Nibe) was about 55.000 SEK, including labour and removal old pump (IVT).
    If everyone in a densely populated area is using an air-source heat pump, it must end up lowering the ambient temperature outside?
    You're not a physicist, are you?
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