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Is Sunak going to give state pensioners an 8% increase? – politicalbetting.com

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  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 38,749
    rcs1000 said:

    Talking of green policies, we've just had a preliminary estimate for installing a heat pump system for Chez Nabavi.

    Gulp!!!

    All Swedish detached houses have them. We replaced ours a couple of years ago. It was only 12 years old. 15 years seems to be typical lifespan.

    A fiddle to maintain and Top Tip: look out for decibels! The cheap ones are significantly noisier than the pricey ones.

    I think ours (Nibe) was about 55.000 SEK, including labour and removal old pump (IVT).
    If everyone in a densely populated area is using an air-source heat pump, it must end up lowering the ambient temperature outside?
    Surely it would increase it: it's bringing heat from deep earth to the surface.
    Not the ones that use outside air as a heat source. Apparently they can operate even when the air temperature is as low as -15.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 33,931
    Cyclefree said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    Prince Andrew: Refusal to talk to Epstein investigators ‘straining relations between UK and America’

    … the lack of information-sharing had caused diplomatic strain, with US law enforcement and diplomats raising the matter with their British counterparts.

    The lack of cooperation now spans three years of reported attempts by the US authorities to gather facts from the royal who, in a statement from 2019, said he would be willing to help US law-enforcement with investigations. However, in January last year, Manhattan US attorney Geoffrey Berman said the country’s authorities had received “zero cooperation” from the prince…

    Of particular interest to the US authorities is how money transfers may be linked to the movement of young women and girls. The various interested bodies, including the FBI, believe these may offer insights into ongoing organised criminal operations.

    The authorities’ interests are understood to include multiple trips by the royal to Epstein’s Caribbean island, Little St James, as well as Florida and New York. Last year, prosecutors in the US Virgin Islands, which includes Little St James, alleged Mr Epstein abused hundreds of young women and girls up until 2018.

    Given the US refuse to hand over Anne Sacoolas tough.

    Perhaps they could also look a bit more into Bill Clinton and Bill Gates' links to Epstein before lecturing us

    This Windsor scandal is clearly touching a raw Tory nerve. Hardly news. I expect a veritable infestation of squirrels in the coming months and years. Poor old Harry and Meghan.

    Shame on you HY. If the Tories had an ounce of decency they would be encouraging the coward prince to get on a trans-Atlantic plane and face the charges, as he promised to do in 2019.
    1. The US criminal authorities have charged Ghislaine Maxwell. As part of that they may be seeking evidence from Andrew as a potential witness. There is no necessity for him to fly to the US to do this. He would be well advised not to in any case until the basis on which such discussions are had is clear & there is clear agreement on what use can & cannot be made of whatever he says. This is because there are various protections in law - both English & the US - and everyone is entitled to use them. There are dangers in volunteering evidence without doing so. There are also issues for the US authorities because evidence gathered in such a way may not be admissible in any subsequent trial

    Believe me, I have advised a number of people in similar circumstances & any good lawyer would be very wary about telling a client to go to the US to speak to the criminal authorities there just because they ask.

    The US authorities - whether criminal or regulatory - are very willing to grandstand in public to bully people into ignoring their rights. They will often try to ignore different legal requirements in overseas jurisdictions because (a) it is just plain inconvenient for them or (b) it stops them doing what they want.

    2. The US criminal authorities have not charged Andrew with anything. Extradition is irrelevant.

    3. He now faces a civil suit in the US - brought just before the limitation period expires. It is not entirely clear whether the allegation is that he had sex with a minor or had sex with someone over the age of consent without her consent (rape, in other words) or something else. There is an issue as to jurisdiction because the acts complained of, AFAIU, happened in the UK.

    It really does not matter whether he is an HRH or not. He is entitled to the same legal protections as everyone else including the presumption of innocence until proven guilty. There is something unseemly in the way that people rush to assume that because he appears to be an entitled twit he must therefore be guilty of serious crimes. Some of the comments made about him on social media are seriously defamatory. Equally, he is subject to the law as everyone else.

    There will be strategic & tactical decisions which his lawyers will have to consider. In addition, he - and his advisors - need to consider the impact of his behaviour on the rest of his family.

    Much of what is written in the papers about this is ill-informed nonsense.

    I have no idea who is telling the truth here. I do think Andrew was ill-advised to give that interview. But in any event, the matter is now in the hands of the lawyers and, from what I know, some of those advising him are very good indeed. I hope for his sake that he listens to good advice. He clearly hasn't in the past.

    You'd have thought courtiers or someone might have warned him about Epstein. But there again Epstein managed to get into his orbit people far far cleverer than Andrew - Clinton, Gates etc. So what does that say about them?
    One of the many depressing things about Epstein is that his whole career was a tissue of lies and fantasies and yet somehow he persuaded some very bright people to overlook that. His whole fortune that allowed him to get away with so much for so long was built on his fraudulently claiming qualifications and experience he didn’t have for a first job yet even when he was found out, he wasn’t fired because he was so eloquent in his defence.

    His ability to deceive and manipulate was really quite extraordinary and that was one reason he got away with so much.
    He was also an expert in law, and knew very well what was the age of consent in each jurisdiction in which he operated.

    Yes, he’d go out of his way to find places where the age of consent was 14 or 15, rather than the 17 or 18 that’s usual in the USA. It doesn’t mean that people did anything illegal, and most of the comments now are more about shaming than exposing actual illegality.
    Being above the age of consent does not mean you can legally be coerced to have sex, so it doesn't mean they didn't do anything illegal, either. Hence the case against (for example) Maxwell.
    Indeed. And so far the allegations have been that Epstein and Maxwell coerced the girls into having sex with their friends. Of course this could mean that those friends believed that the girls consented to sex. Now an allegation is being made that the person who allegedly had sex with them was also involved in the coercion. But that is, bluntly, an allegation of rape.

    So why isn't that allegation made to the criminal authorities in the U.K. where the alleged rape happened? Rather than in a civil suit for damages in the U.K.
    Fair question, though I was making a general point about Sandpit's comment rather than addressing 'that allegation'.
    As far as that's concerned, the difference in burden of proof, and her prior experience of criminal proceedings against Epstein, probably.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virginia_Roberts_Giuffre#Legal_proceedings
  • MonkeysMonkeys Posts: 661

    Talking of green policies, we've just had a preliminary estimate for installing a heat pump system for Chez Nabavi.

    Gulp!!!

    All Swedish detached houses have them. We replaced ours a couple of years ago. It was only 12 years old. 15 years seems to be typical lifespan.

    A fiddle to maintain and Top Tip: look out for decibels! The cheap ones are significantly noisier than the pricey ones.

    I think ours (Nibe) was about 55.000 SEK, including labour and removal old pump (IVT).
    If everyone in a densely populated area is using an air-source heat pump, it must end up lowering the ambient temperature outside?
    Not as much as if we all left our freezers open
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 38,749

    Talking of green policies, we've just had a preliminary estimate for installing a heat pump system for Chez Nabavi.

    Gulp!!!

    All Swedish detached houses have them. We replaced ours a couple of years ago. It was only 12 years old. 15 years seems to be typical lifespan.

    A fiddle to maintain and Top Tip: look out for decibels! The cheap ones are significantly noisier than the pricey ones.

    I think ours (Nibe) was about 55.000 SEK, including labour and removal old pump (IVT).
    If everyone in a densely populated area is using an air-source heat pump, it must end up lowering the ambient temperature outside?
    You're not a physicist, are you?
    I understand the principle of the conservation of energy. If you are extracting heat from the air outside, it must have a cooling effect.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 15,403


    Cameron actually put forward an aggressive campaign of defining himself & and the Party - green stuff, Rwanda, binning people for being part of the Nasty Party etc etc...

    If Starmer started doing Starmer Direct talks with groups of the public....

    Cameron didn't just sit there and wait for everyone to decide that since it was a choice between the blank slate and Brown....

    Also, a huge amount of work went into policy development and ensuring that the team as a whole was credible, rather as Blair's team did in the run up to '97. Labour today hasn't even got to the early planning stage on that, let alone reached base camp.
    Part of the problem for Labour is that many supporters believe that Blair didn't stand for anything. That the whole thing was just an image manipulation exercise.

    1997 happened because he created something to vote *for*.
    Yes.
    But greatly helped by the Tory government creating something to vore against.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 6,438
    edited August 12
    Monkeys said:

    Talking of green policies, we've just had a preliminary estimate for installing a heat pump system for Chez Nabavi.

    Gulp!!!

    All Swedish detached houses have them. We replaced ours a couple of years ago. It was only 12 years old. 15 years seems to be typical lifespan.

    A fiddle to maintain and Top Tip: look out for decibels! The cheap ones are significantly noisier than the pricey ones.

    I think ours (Nibe) was about 55.000 SEK, including labour and removal old pump (IVT).
    If everyone in a densely populated area is using an air-source heat pump, it must end up lowering the ambient temperature outside?
    Not as much as if we all left our freezers open
    You might be wrong there. (Also known as plain wrong)
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,503

    Talking of green policies, we've just had a preliminary estimate for installing a heat pump system for Chez Nabavi.

    Gulp!!!

    All Swedish detached houses have them. We replaced ours a couple of years ago. It was only 12 years old. 15 years seems to be typical lifespan.

    A fiddle to maintain and Top Tip: look out for decibels! The cheap ones are significantly noisier than the pricey ones.

    I think ours (Nibe) was about 55.000 SEK, including labour and removal old pump (IVT).
    If everyone in a densely populated area is using an air-source heat pump, it must end up lowering the ambient temperature outside?
    You're not a physicist, are you?
    I understand the principle of the conservation of energy. If you are extracting heat from the air outside, it must have a cooling effect.
    That's not where you extract the heat from.

    Heart pumps extract it from the ground (deep) beneath your house.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 29,144

    rcs1000 said:

    Talking of green policies, we've just had a preliminary estimate for installing a heat pump system for Chez Nabavi.

    Gulp!!!

    All Swedish detached houses have them. We replaced ours a couple of years ago. It was only 12 years old. 15 years seems to be typical lifespan.

    A fiddle to maintain and Top Tip: look out for decibels! The cheap ones are significantly noisier than the pricey ones.

    I think ours (Nibe) was about 55.000 SEK, including labour and removal old pump (IVT).
    If everyone in a densely populated area is using an air-source heat pump, it must end up lowering the ambient temperature outside?
    Surely it would increase it: it's bringing heat from deep earth to the surface.
    Not the ones that use outside air as a heat source. Apparently they can operate even when the air temperature is as low as -15.
    They still put heat into the atmosphere overall, just as a fridge or a supermarket refrigerated counter does. The overall effect is the electrical power coming in, the rest is just moving heat from one place to another. It eventually escapes from the house, to balance the heat being taken from the air immediately around the heat pump.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 38,749
    rcs1000 said:

    Talking of green policies, we've just had a preliminary estimate for installing a heat pump system for Chez Nabavi.

    Gulp!!!

    All Swedish detached houses have them. We replaced ours a couple of years ago. It was only 12 years old. 15 years seems to be typical lifespan.

    A fiddle to maintain and Top Tip: look out for decibels! The cheap ones are significantly noisier than the pricey ones.

    I think ours (Nibe) was about 55.000 SEK, including labour and removal old pump (IVT).
    If everyone in a densely populated area is using an air-source heat pump, it must end up lowering the ambient temperature outside?
    You're not a physicist, are you?
    I understand the principle of the conservation of energy. If you are extracting heat from the air outside, it must have a cooling effect.
    That's not where you extract the heat from.

    Heart pumps extract it from the ground (deep) beneath your house.
    You're thinking of ground source heat pumps as opposed to the air source variety.

    https://energysavingtrust.org.uk/advice/air-source-heat-pumps/

    Air source heat pumps (ASHPs) absorb heat from the outside air to heat your home and hot water. They can still extract heat when air temperatures are as low as -15°C.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,503
    edited August 12
    rcs1000 said:

    Talking of green policies, we've just had a preliminary estimate for installing a heat pump system for Chez Nabavi.

    Gulp!!!

    All Swedish detached houses have them. We replaced ours a couple of years ago. It was only 12 years old. 15 years seems to be typical lifespan.

    A fiddle to maintain and Top Tip: look out for decibels! The cheap ones are significantly noisier than the pricey ones.

    I think ours (Nibe) was about 55.000 SEK, including labour and removal old pump (IVT).
    If everyone in a densely populated area is using an air-source heat pump, it must end up lowering the ambient temperature outside?
    You're not a physicist, are you?
    I understand the principle of the conservation of energy. If you are extracting heat from the air outside, it must have a cooling effect.
    That's not where you extract the heat from.

    Heart pumps extract it from the ground (deep) beneath your house.
    Turns out I'm an idiot.

    Turns out most heat pumps are air pumps.

    And so, yes, you would expect them to (marginally) reduce the temperature outside. Albeit, they will be using energy to run the compressors, so not clear what the net effect will be.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 33,931
    .
    ydoethur said:

    Foss said:

    I think we're probably getting to the end of silly season and we're about to see the start of the first big post covid crisis to enter the public consciousness - U.S. Asks Taliban to Spare Its Embassy in Coming Fight for Kabul.

    Could Biden lose the next election on this? Vietnam II
    Ford didn’t lose the 1976 election over Vietnam.
    And it hardly rises to the level of Truman/China.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 29,144
    Clearly I need to run some remedial thermodynamics courses for PBers...
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 38,749

    rcs1000 said:

    Talking of green policies, we've just had a preliminary estimate for installing a heat pump system for Chez Nabavi.

    Gulp!!!

    All Swedish detached houses have them. We replaced ours a couple of years ago. It was only 12 years old. 15 years seems to be typical lifespan.

    A fiddle to maintain and Top Tip: look out for decibels! The cheap ones are significantly noisier than the pricey ones.

    I think ours (Nibe) was about 55.000 SEK, including labour and removal old pump (IVT).
    If everyone in a densely populated area is using an air-source heat pump, it must end up lowering the ambient temperature outside?
    Surely it would increase it: it's bringing heat from deep earth to the surface.
    Not the ones that use outside air as a heat source. Apparently they can operate even when the air temperature is as low as -15.
    They still put heat into the atmosphere overall, just as a fridge or a supermarket refrigerated counter does. The overall effect is the electrical power coming in, the rest is just moving heat from one place to another. It eventually escapes from the house, to balance the heat being taken from the air immediately around the heat pump.
    The key word is eventually. I'm thinking of the scenario of a cold night where everyone turns their heating on fully.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,503
    edited August 12

    rcs1000 said:

    Talking of green policies, we've just had a preliminary estimate for installing a heat pump system for Chez Nabavi.

    Gulp!!!

    All Swedish detached houses have them. We replaced ours a couple of years ago. It was only 12 years old. 15 years seems to be typical lifespan.

    A fiddle to maintain and Top Tip: look out for decibels! The cheap ones are significantly noisier than the pricey ones.

    I think ours (Nibe) was about 55.000 SEK, including labour and removal old pump (IVT).
    If everyone in a densely populated area is using an air-source heat pump, it must end up lowering the ambient temperature outside?
    Surely it would increase it: it's bringing heat from deep earth to the surface.
    Not the ones that use outside air as a heat source. Apparently they can operate even when the air temperature is as low as -15.
    They still put heat into the atmosphere overall, just as a fridge or a supermarket refrigerated counter does. The overall effect is the electrical power coming in, the rest is just moving heat from one place to another. It eventually escapes from the house, to balance the heat being taken from the air immediately around the heat pump.
    A refrigerator is a good example @Richard_Nabavi.

    It will lower the temperature inside the box (the fridge). And raise it outside. In total there will be more warming (entropy) because it will have required energy to run the compressors.

    For the air source heat pumps, the temperature inside the box (the home) will have risen. Now, will the electrical energy be thrown outside? Probably a bit, but these devices have decent efficiencies, so one would expect that it would still be cooling the outside of the home slightly.

    Of course, one needs also to think of the waste heat thrown off at the CCGT, and the electrical transmission wires that will have been humming.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 5,163
    edited August 12

    rcs1000 said:

    Talking of green policies, we've just had a preliminary estimate for installing a heat pump system for Chez Nabavi.

    Gulp!!!

    All Swedish detached houses have them. We replaced ours a couple of years ago. It was only 12 years old. 15 years seems to be typical lifespan.

    A fiddle to maintain and Top Tip: look out for decibels! The cheap ones are significantly noisier than the pricey ones.

    I think ours (Nibe) was about 55.000 SEK, including labour and removal old pump (IVT).
    If everyone in a densely populated area is using an air-source heat pump, it must end up lowering the ambient temperature outside?
    Surely it would increase it: it's bringing heat from deep earth to the surface.
    Not the ones that use outside air as a heat source. Apparently they can operate even when the air temperature is as low as -15.
    They still put heat into the atmosphere overall, just as a fridge or a supermarket refrigerated counter does. The overall effect is the electrical power coming in, the rest is just moving heat from one place to another. It eventually escapes from the house, to balance the heat being taken from the air immediately around the heat pump.
    Depends though, potentially on how well insulated the roof is. Energy lost from a black body is proportional to the fourth power of the temperature, so by redistributing the heat from a large area (outside) to a small area (inside) you would increase the radiation lost to space (on a clear night).

    It's possible that the energy added to the system as required to run the heat pump is greater than this effect, though, which is where the insulation is important, as it will reduce the heat lost through the roof.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 29,144


    The key word is eventually. I'm thinking of the scenario of a cold night where everyone turns their heating on fully.

    Unless the houses are getting hotter in that night, the heat escaping from them is the same as the heat taken out of the air sucked through the heat-pump fans plus the electrical energy driving them.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,503


    The key word is eventually. I'm thinking of the scenario of a cold night where everyone turns their heating on fully.

    Unless the houses are getting hotter in that night, the heat escaping from them is the same as the heat taken out of the air sucked through the heat-pump fans plus the electrical energy driving them.
    Excellent point.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Talking of green policies, we've just had a preliminary estimate for installing a heat pump system for Chez Nabavi.

    Gulp!!!

    All Swedish detached houses have them. We replaced ours a couple of years ago. It was only 12 years old. 15 years seems to be typical lifespan.

    A fiddle to maintain and Top Tip: look out for decibels! The cheap ones are significantly noisier than the pricey ones.

    I think ours (Nibe) was about 55.000 SEK, including labour and removal old pump (IVT).
    If everyone in a densely populated area is using an air-source heat pump, it must end up lowering the ambient temperature outside?
    You're not a physicist, are you?
    I understand the principle of the conservation of energy. If you are extracting heat from the air outside, it must have a cooling effect.
    That's not where you extract the heat from.

    Heart pumps extract it from the ground (deep) beneath your house.
    Turns out I'm an idiot.

    Turns out most heat pumps are air pumps.

    And so, yes, you would expect them to (marginally) reduce the temperature outside. Albeit, they will be using energy to run the compressors, so not clear what the net effect will be.
    I am wondering, if you have solar panels, could you generate enough electricity to run your home AND the electric motor for the heating system?

    ie a totally free and completely carbon neutral system after initial investment (and maintenance...).
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,086
    Nigelb said:

    .

    ydoethur said:

    Foss said:

    I think we're probably getting to the end of silly season and we're about to see the start of the first big post covid crisis to enter the public consciousness - U.S. Asks Taliban to Spare Its Embassy in Coming Fight for Kabul.

    Could Biden lose the next election on this? Vietnam II
    Ford didn’t lose the 1976 election over Vietnam.
    And it hardly rises to the level of Truman/China.
    Not unless Afghanistan successfully intervenes in a war between India and Pakistan.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 9,579
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Talking of green policies, we've just had a preliminary estimate for installing a heat pump system for Chez Nabavi.

    Gulp!!!

    All Swedish detached houses have them. We replaced ours a couple of years ago. It was only 12 years old. 15 years seems to be typical lifespan.

    A fiddle to maintain and Top Tip: look out for decibels! The cheap ones are significantly noisier than the pricey ones.

    I think ours (Nibe) was about 55.000 SEK, including labour and removal old pump (IVT).
    If everyone in a densely populated area is using an air-source heat pump, it must end up lowering the ambient temperature outside?
    You're not a physicist, are you?
    I understand the principle of the conservation of energy. If you are extracting heat from the air outside, it must have a cooling effect.
    That's not where you extract the heat from.

    Heart pumps extract it from the ground (deep) beneath your house.
    Turns out I'm an idiot.

    Turns out most heat pumps are air pumps.

    And so, yes, you would expect them to (marginally) reduce the temperature outside. Albeit, they will be using energy to run the compressors, so not clear what the net effect will be.
    But the ground source pumps will balance them out. It's like eating antipasti followed by pasta as part of a weight control program.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 38,749
    edited August 12


    The key word is eventually. I'm thinking of the scenario of a cold night where everyone turns their heating on fully.

    Unless the houses are getting hotter in that night, the heat escaping from them is the same as the heat taken out of the air sucked through the heat-pump fans plus the electrical energy driving them.
    If the houses are not getting hotter then it's a bloody useless heating system.

    I hope you didn't think I was suggesting they would cause "global cooling" and make the heat disappear forever...
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 4,233

    rcs1000 said:

    Talking of green policies, we've just had a preliminary estimate for installing a heat pump system for Chez Nabavi.

    Gulp!!!

    All Swedish detached houses have them. We replaced ours a couple of years ago. It was only 12 years old. 15 years seems to be typical lifespan.

    A fiddle to maintain and Top Tip: look out for decibels! The cheap ones are significantly noisier than the pricey ones.

    I think ours (Nibe) was about 55.000 SEK, including labour and removal old pump (IVT).
    If everyone in a densely populated area is using an air-source heat pump, it must end up lowering the ambient temperature outside?
    Surely it would increase it: it's bringing heat from deep earth to the surface.
    Not the ones that use outside air as a heat source. Apparently they can operate even when the air temperature is as low as -15.
    They still put heat into the atmosphere overall, just as a fridge or a supermarket refrigerated counter does. The overall effect is the electrical power coming in, the rest is just moving heat from one place to another. It eventually escapes from the house, to balance the heat being taken from the air immediately around the heat pump.
    The key word is eventually. I'm thinking of the scenario of a cold night where everyone turns their heating on fully.
    Bearing in mind that it's a looong time since I thought about this properly, I think @Richard_Nabavi has picked one of the key points. If you compare "all the heat pumps running" with "no heat pumps running", the difference is the electricity powering the pumps, so eventually you end up with that energy dissipating in the surroundings as heat.

    But whilst the effect of the heat pump will be to remove heat from the outside to take to the inside (a bit like the way that the back of old fridges and freezers is noticeably warm), I doubt you'd get a measurable effect on outside temperatures. There's a lot of air outside and, even on a still night, it's very mobile.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 33,931
    edited August 12
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Talking of green policies, we've just had a preliminary estimate for installing a heat pump system for Chez Nabavi.

    Gulp!!!

    All Swedish detached houses have them. We replaced ours a couple of years ago. It was only 12 years old. 15 years seems to be typical lifespan.

    A fiddle to maintain and Top Tip: look out for decibels! The cheap ones are significantly noisier than the pricey ones.

    I think ours (Nibe) was about 55.000 SEK, including labour and removal old pump (IVT).
    If everyone in a densely populated area is using an air-source heat pump, it must end up lowering the ambient temperature outside?
    You're not a physicist, are you?
    I understand the principle of the conservation of energy. If you are extracting heat from the air outside, it must have a cooling effect.
    That's not where you extract the heat from.

    Heart pumps extract it from the ground (deep) beneath your house.
    Turns out I'm an idiot.

    Turns out most heat pumps are air pumps.

    And so, yes, you would expect them to (marginally) reduce the temperature outside. Albeit, they will be using energy to run the compressors, so not clear what the net effect will be.
    Well it might temporarily and marginally reduce the temperature outside, but the effect would be negligible even in a dense urban environment. And unless you assume perfectly insulated buildings (in which case the occupants will slowly be roasted), there will be heat loss to the outside over time anyway.
    As you point out, energy is used in transferring heat (though modern pumps are quite efficient), so the net effect will be to heat the urban environment over time.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 20,848
    Nigelb said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    Prince Andrew: Refusal to talk to Epstein investigators ‘straining relations between UK and America’

    … the lack of information-sharing had caused diplomatic strain, with US law enforcement and diplomats raising the matter with their British counterparts.

    The lack of cooperation now spans three years of reported attempts by the US authorities to gather facts from the royal who, in a statement from 2019, said he would be willing to help US law-enforcement with investigations. However, in January last year, Manhattan US attorney Geoffrey Berman said the country’s authorities had received “zero cooperation” from the prince…

    Of particular interest to the US authorities is how money transfers may be linked to the movement of young women and girls. The various interested bodies, including the FBI, believe these may offer insights into ongoing organised criminal operations.

    The authorities’ interests are understood to include multiple trips by the royal to Epstein’s Caribbean island, Little St James, as well as Florida and New York. Last year, prosecutors in the US Virgin Islands, which includes Little St James, alleged Mr Epstein abused hundreds of young women and girls up until 2018.

    Given the US refuse to hand over Anne Sacoolas tough.

    Perhaps they could also look a bit more into Bill Clinton and Bill Gates' links to Epstein before lecturing us

    This Windsor scandal is clearly touching a raw Tory nerve. Hardly news. I expect a veritable infestation of squirrels in the coming months and years. Poor old Harry and Meghan.

    Shame on you HY. If the Tories had an ounce of decency they would be encouraging the coward prince to get on a trans-Atlantic plane and face the charges, as he promised to do in 2019.
    1. The US criminal authorities have charged Ghislaine Maxwell. As part of that they may be seeking evidence from Andrew as a potential witness. There is no necessity for him to fly to the US to do this. He would be well advised not to in any case until the basis on which such discussions are had is clear & there is clear agreement on what use can & cannot be made of whatever he says. This is because there are various protections in law - both English & the US - and everyone is entitled to use them. There are dangers in volunteering evidence without doing so. There are also issues for the US authorities because evidence gathered in such a way may not be admissible in any subsequent trial

    Believe me, I have advised a number of people in similar circumstances & any good lawyer would be very wary about telling a client to go to the US to speak to the criminal authorities there just because they ask.

    The US authorities - whether criminal or regulatory - are very willing to grandstand in public to bully people into ignoring their rights. They will often try to ignore different legal requirements in overseas jurisdictions because (a) it is just plain inconvenient for them or (b) it stops them doing what they want.

    2. The US criminal authorities have not charged Andrew with anything. Extradition is irrelevant.

    3. He now faces a civil suit in the US - brought just before the limitation period expires. It is not entirely clear whether the allegation is that he had sex with a minor or had sex with someone over the age of consent without her consent (rape, in other words) or something else. There is an issue as to jurisdiction because the acts complained of, AFAIU, happened in the UK.

    It really does not matter whether he is an HRH or not. He is entitled to the same legal protections as everyone else including the presumption of innocence until proven guilty. There is something unseemly in the way that people rush to assume that because he appears to be an entitled twit he must therefore be guilty of serious crimes. Some of the comments made about him on social media are seriously defamatory. Equally, he is subject to the law as everyone else.

    There will be strategic & tactical decisions which his lawyers will have to consider. In addition, he - and his advisors - need to consider the impact of his behaviour on the rest of his family.

    Much of what is written in the papers about this is ill-informed nonsense.

    I have no idea who is telling the truth here. I do think Andrew was ill-advised to give that interview. But in any event, the matter is now in the hands of the lawyers and, from what I know, some of those advising him are very good indeed. I hope for his sake that he listens to good advice. He clearly hasn't in the past.

    You'd have thought courtiers or someone might have warned him about Epstein. But there again Epstein managed to get into his orbit people far far cleverer than Andrew - Clinton, Gates etc. So what does that say about them?
    One of the many depressing things about Epstein is that his whole career was a tissue of lies and fantasies and yet somehow he persuaded some very bright people to overlook that. His whole fortune that allowed him to get away with so much for so long was built on his fraudulently claiming qualifications and experience he didn’t have for a first job yet even when he was found out, he wasn’t fired because he was so eloquent in his defence.

    His ability to deceive and manipulate was really quite extraordinary and that was one reason he got away with so much.
    He was also an expert in law, and knew very well what was the age of consent in each jurisdiction in which he operated.

    Yes, he’d go out of his way to find places where the age of consent was 14 or 15, rather than the 17 or 18 that’s usual in the USA. It doesn’t mean that people did anything illegal, and most of the comments now are more about shaming than exposing actual illegality.
    Being above the age of consent does not mean you can legally be coerced to have sex, so it doesn't mean they didn't do anything illegal, either. Hence the case against (for example) Maxwell.
    Indeed. And so far the allegations have been that Epstein and Maxwell coerced the girls into having sex with their friends. Of course this could mean that those friends believed that the girls consented to sex. Now an allegation is being made that the person who allegedly had sex with them was also involved in the coercion. But that is, bluntly, an allegation of rape.

    So why isn't that allegation made to the criminal authorities in the U.K. where the alleged rape happened? Rather than in a civil suit for damages in the U.K.
    Fair question, though I was making a general point about Sandpit's comment rather than addressing 'that allegation'.
    As far as that's concerned, the difference in burden of proof, and her prior experience of criminal proceedings against Epstein, probably.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virginia_Roberts_Giuffre#Legal_proceedings
    There is a more cynical conclusion available.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 30,179
    It's the rank amateurism as much as anything.

    https://twitter.com/CrispMermaid/status/1425739765576605699?s=20
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,017

    rcs1000 said:

    Talking of green policies, we've just had a preliminary estimate for installing a heat pump system for Chez Nabavi.

    Gulp!!!

    All Swedish detached houses have them. We replaced ours a couple of years ago. It was only 12 years old. 15 years seems to be typical lifespan.

    A fiddle to maintain and Top Tip: look out for decibels! The cheap ones are significantly noisier than the pricey ones.

    I think ours (Nibe) was about 55.000 SEK, including labour and removal old pump (IVT).
    If everyone in a densely populated area is using an air-source heat pump, it must end up lowering the ambient temperature outside?
    Surely it would increase it: it's bringing heat from deep earth to the surface.
    Not the ones that use outside air as a heat source. Apparently they can operate even when the air temperature is as low as -15.
    They still put heat into the atmosphere overall, just as a fridge or a supermarket refrigerated counter does. The overall effect is the electrical power coming in, the rest is just moving heat from one place to another. It eventually escapes from the house, to balance the heat being taken from the air immediately around the heat pump.
    The key word is eventually. I'm thinking of the scenario of a cold night where everyone turns their heating on fully.
    Bearing in mind that it's a looong time since I thought about this properly, I think @Richard_Nabavi has picked one of the key points. If you compare "all the heat pumps running" with "no heat pumps running", the difference is the electricity powering the pumps, so eventually you end up with that energy dissipating in the surroundings as heat.

    But whilst the effect of the heat pump will be to remove heat from the outside to take to the inside (a bit like the way that the back of old fridges and freezers is noticeably warm), I doubt you'd get a measurable effect on outside temperatures. There's a lot of air outside and, even on a still night, it's very mobile.
    Given that the ground source heat pumps are associated with massively increased insulation for the properties in question, the net effect might not be what you expect. Since before reworking, such properties are pumping heat into the surrounding area, anyway.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 29,144


    The key word is eventually. I'm thinking of the scenario of a cold night where everyone turns their heating on fully.

    Unless the houses are getting hotter in that night, the heat escaping from them is the same as the heat taken out of the air sucked through the heat-pump fans plus the electrical energy driving them.
    If the houses are not getting hotter then it's a bloody useless heating system.

    I hope you didn't think I was suggesting they would cause "global cooling" and make the heat disappear forever...
    Hotter than they were before the cold night. If the temperature is constant in the house (which is no doubt the case in those well-regulated Swedish homes!), what goes out equals what goes in. Of course as the night gets colder outside, more heat will be lost from the house, and the heat pump will have to work harder to compensate,
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 9,579
    Amphibian has heard different (3,6)

    A reprise, but the best crossword clue I will ever write
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,376
    Nigelb said:

    .

    ydoethur said:

    Foss said:

    I think we're probably getting to the end of silly season and we're about to see the start of the first big post covid crisis to enter the public consciousness - U.S. Asks Taliban to Spare Its Embassy in Coming Fight for Kabul.

    Could Biden lose the next election on this? Vietnam II
    Ford didn’t lose the 1976 election over Vietnam.
    And it hardly rises to the level of Truman/China.
    Ford was not re elected in 1976 and Truman declined to run again in 1952 as he knew he would lose.

    If Kabul falls and the US gets another terrorist attack planned from Afghanistan Biden-Harris are doomed in 2024
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 5,163


    The key word is eventually. I'm thinking of the scenario of a cold night where everyone turns their heating on fully.

    Unless the houses are getting hotter in that night, the heat escaping from them is the same as the heat taken out of the air sucked through the heat-pump fans plus the electrical energy driving them.
    If the houses are not getting hotter then it's a bloody useless heating system.

    I hope you didn't think I was suggesting they would cause "global cooling" and make the heat disappear forever...
    Hotter than they were before the cold night. If the temperature is constant in the house (which is no doubt the case in those well-regulated Swedish homes!), what goes out equals what goes in. Of course as the night gets colder outside, more heat will be lost from the house, and the heat pump will have to work harder to compensate,
    On a cold night you can't consider the house and the surrounding layer of air near the surface as a closed system - both are losing heat to space (otherwise it wouldn't be a cold night!)

    If you make the house considerably hotter than the surrounding outside you will increase the rate of energy loss to space.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,193


    The key word is eventually. I'm thinking of the scenario of a cold night where everyone turns their heating on fully.

    Unless the houses are getting hotter in that night, the heat escaping from them is the same as the heat taken out of the air sucked through the heat-pump fans plus the electrical energy driving them.
    If the houses are not getting hotter then it's a bloody useless heating system.

    I hope you didn't think I was suggesting they would cause "global cooling" and make the heat disappear forever...
    The houses may not be getting hot, it may just prevent them from getting colder. If the room stays an ambient 20 degrees (or whatever you set it at) then heat loss and heat gain should counteract each other.

    Currently there is a very measurable 'heat island' effect around urban areas, especially urban cities. Air pumps might neutralise that a bit, but I doubt it would go into reverse.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 10,742
    edited August 12
    rcs1000 said:

    Talking of green policies, we've just had a preliminary estimate for installing a heat pump system for Chez Nabavi.

    Gulp!!!

    All Swedish detached houses have them. We replaced ours a couple of years ago. It was only 12 years old. 15 years seems to be typical lifespan.

    A fiddle to maintain and Top Tip: look out for decibels! The cheap ones are significantly noisier than the pricey ones.

    I think ours (Nibe) was about 55.000 SEK, including labour and removal old pump (IVT).
    If everyone in a densely populated area is using an air-source heat pump, it must end up lowering the ambient temperature outside?
    You're not a physicist, are you?
    I understand the principle of the conservation of energy. If you are extracting heat from the air outside, it must have a cooling effect.
    That's not where you extract the heat from.

    Heart pumps extract it from the ground (deep) beneath your house.
    You can use Air, Ground or even Water as the heat source.

    You can also get eg Air to Air, or Air to Water, depending on your inside system.

    You also get ones that cool the house, by running the other way.

    Plus you can get single space ones which run through a single larger penetration of a wall with 2 pipes (in and out).
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 38,749


    The key word is eventually. I'm thinking of the scenario of a cold night where everyone turns their heating on fully.

    Unless the houses are getting hotter in that night, the heat escaping from them is the same as the heat taken out of the air sucked through the heat-pump fans plus the electrical energy driving them.
    If the houses are not getting hotter then it's a bloody useless heating system.

    I hope you didn't think I was suggesting they would cause "global cooling" and make the heat disappear forever...
    Hotter than they were before the cold night. If the temperature is constant in the house (which is no doubt the case in those well-regulated Swedish homes!), what goes out equals what goes in. Of course as the night gets colder outside, more heat will be lost from the house, and the heat pump will have to work harder to compensate,
    So the net effect of all those heat pumps running (relative to an alternative heating mechanism) will be to negate part of the urban heat island effect.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,193
    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    ydoethur said:

    Foss said:

    I think we're probably getting to the end of silly season and we're about to see the start of the first big post covid crisis to enter the public consciousness - U.S. Asks Taliban to Spare Its Embassy in Coming Fight for Kabul.

    Could Biden lose the next election on this? Vietnam II
    Ford didn’t lose the 1976 election over Vietnam.
    And it hardly rises to the level of Truman/China.
    Ford was not re elected in 1976 and Truman declined to run again in 1952 as he knew he would lose.

    If Kabul falls and the US gets another terrorist attack planned from Afghanistan Biden-Harris are doomed in 2024
    Ford was not re-elected in 1976 as he had terrible approval ratings from the moment he pardoned Nixon onwards. Before the fall of Saigon. The fall of Saigon didn't move his approval ratings at all.

    Why do you think that the fall of Saigon as opposed to the pardoning of Nixon is behind his failure to get re-elected?
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 4,233

    rcs1000 said:

    Talking of green policies, we've just had a preliminary estimate for installing a heat pump system for Chez Nabavi.

    Gulp!!!

    All Swedish detached houses have them. We replaced ours a couple of years ago. It was only 12 years old. 15 years seems to be typical lifespan.

    A fiddle to maintain and Top Tip: look out for decibels! The cheap ones are significantly noisier than the pricey ones.

    I think ours (Nibe) was about 55.000 SEK, including labour and removal old pump (IVT).
    If everyone in a densely populated area is using an air-source heat pump, it must end up lowering the ambient temperature outside?
    Surely it would increase it: it's bringing heat from deep earth to the surface.
    Not the ones that use outside air as a heat source. Apparently they can operate even when the air temperature is as low as -15.
    They still put heat into the atmosphere overall, just as a fridge or a supermarket refrigerated counter does. The overall effect is the electrical power coming in, the rest is just moving heat from one place to another. It eventually escapes from the house, to balance the heat being taken from the air immediately around the heat pump.
    The key word is eventually. I'm thinking of the scenario of a cold night where everyone turns their heating on fully.
    Bearing in mind that it's a looong time since I thought about this properly, I think @Richard_Nabavi has picked one of the key points. If you compare "all the heat pumps running" with "no heat pumps running", the difference is the electricity powering the pumps, so eventually you end up with that energy dissipating in the surroundings as heat.

    But whilst the effect of the heat pump will be to remove heat from the outside to take to the inside (a bit like the way that the back of old fridges and freezers is noticeably warm), I doubt you'd get a measurable effect on outside temperatures. There's a lot of air outside and, even on a still night, it's very mobile.
    Given that the ground source heat pumps are associated with massively increased insulation for the properties in question, the net effect might not be what you expect. Since before reworking, such properties are pumping heat into the surrounding area, anyway.
    Insulation will slow the energy flow (and let the house maintain a higher temperature difference with the outside for the same amount of heating), but the steady state will still be as much energy entering the house as leaving it.

    (It's a long time since I had to think about thermodynamics, and I was in Seville at the time, which was just taunting, really.)

    But yes, get lots of insulation. Then you can get away with a relatively feeble heating system.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 2,944
    Sadly, I'm about to go out for a beautiful dinner. So I will no longer be able to participate in the heat pump thread, which I've found most educational/haven't understood a word of. Oh well, you can't have everything.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 29,144


    The key word is eventually. I'm thinking of the scenario of a cold night where everyone turns their heating on fully.

    Unless the houses are getting hotter in that night, the heat escaping from them is the same as the heat taken out of the air sucked through the heat-pump fans plus the electrical energy driving them.
    If the houses are not getting hotter then it's a bloody useless heating system.

    I hope you didn't think I was suggesting they would cause "global cooling" and make the heat disappear forever...
    Hotter than they were before the cold night. If the temperature is constant in the house (which is no doubt the case in those well-regulated Swedish homes!), what goes out equals what goes in. Of course as the night gets colder outside, more heat will be lost from the house, and the heat pump will have to work harder to compensate,
    On a cold night you can't consider the house and the surrounding layer of air near the surface as a closed system - both are losing heat to space (otherwise it wouldn't be a cold night!)

    If you make the house considerably hotter than the surrounding outside you will increase the rate of energy loss to space.
    True, but much of the loss will be convection, and radiation from the walls as well, which won't go out to space.

    But I think we're getting on to the advanced course!
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 4,477
    IshmaelZ said:

    Amphibian has heard different (3,6)

    A reprise, but the best crossword clue I will ever write

    Too cryptic for me, what’s the answer?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,086
    This thread has

    successfully heated the room but left the outside chilly.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,376

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    ydoethur said:

    Foss said:

    I think we're probably getting to the end of silly season and we're about to see the start of the first big post covid crisis to enter the public consciousness - U.S. Asks Taliban to Spare Its Embassy in Coming Fight for Kabul.

    Could Biden lose the next election on this? Vietnam II
    Ford didn’t lose the 1976 election over Vietnam.
    And it hardly rises to the level of Truman/China.
    Ford was not re elected in 1976 and Truman declined to run again in 1952 as he knew he would lose.

    If Kabul falls and the US gets another terrorist attack planned from Afghanistan Biden-Harris are doomed in 2024
    Ford was not re-elected in 1976 as he had terrible approval ratings from the moment he pardoned Nixon onwards. Before the fall of Saigon. The fall of Saigon didn't move his approval ratings at all.

    Why do you think that the fall of Saigon as opposed to the pardoning of Nixon is behind his failure to get re-elected?
    Nope, Ford came into office with an over 70% approval rating.

    Nixon was pardoned in September 1974 and in October 1974 Ford's approval was still at 52%.

    As the Vietnam war deteriorated in late 1974 and early 1975 however Ford's approval waiting plunged below 40% and after the fall of Saigon in April 1975 he never had an approval over 50% again in office
    https://news.gallup.com/poll/23995/gerald-ford-retrospective.aspx

    (Though it was the Democrats who cut off war funding in Congress, Biden's party controls Congress so he has no excuse)

  • MattWMattW Posts: 10,742
    edited August 12

    rcs1000 said:

    Talking of green policies, we've just had a preliminary estimate for installing a heat pump system for Chez Nabavi.

    Gulp!!!

    All Swedish detached houses have them. We replaced ours a couple of years ago. It was only 12 years old. 15 years seems to be typical lifespan.

    A fiddle to maintain and Top Tip: look out for decibels! The cheap ones are significantly noisier than the pricey ones.

    I think ours (Nibe) was about 55.000 SEK, including labour and removal old pump (IVT).
    If everyone in a densely populated area is using an air-source heat pump, it must end up lowering the ambient temperature outside?
    Surely it would increase it: it's bringing heat from deep earth to the surface.
    Not the ones that use outside air as a heat source. Apparently they can operate even when the air temperature is as low as -15.
    They still put heat into the atmosphere overall, just as a fridge or a supermarket refrigerated counter does. The overall effect is the electrical power coming in, the rest is just moving heat from one place to another. It eventually escapes from the house, to balance the heat being taken from the air immediately around the heat pump.
    The key word is eventually. I'm thinking of the scenario of a cold night where everyone turns their heating on fully.
    Bearing in mind that it's a looong time since I thought about this properly, I think @Richard_Nabavi has picked one of the key points. If you compare "all the heat pumps running" with "no heat pumps running", the difference is the electricity powering the pumps, so eventually you end up with that energy dissipating in the surroundings as heat.

    But whilst the effect of the heat pump will be to remove heat from the outside to take to the inside (a bit like the way that the back of old fridges and freezers is noticeably warm), I doubt you'd get a measurable effect on outside temperatures. There's a lot of air outside and, even on a still night, it's very mobile.
    Yes. Compared to the environment, any amounts of heat involved are small.

    But a heat pump will put in far less heat than the previous system by definition. Typically it will actually use only 1/3 as much energy to run it (with a COP of 3:1) compared to any direct system (whether say Electrical Resistance or a Gas Boiler) so the energy input is reduced by 2/3 everything else being equal. That is the whole point of a pump.

    And any heat drawn inside will have leaked back out in a day or two. Which is a net zero.

    A gas boiler by comparison will draw no heat in from outside, but will add 3 times as much energy as a heat pump.

    So a heat pump won't on the overall scheme heat up the atmosphere more.

    (Ignoring energy lost in eg generation and transmission).
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 4,233


    The key word is eventually. I'm thinking of the scenario of a cold night where everyone turns their heating on fully.

    Unless the houses are getting hotter in that night, the heat escaping from them is the same as the heat taken out of the air sucked through the heat-pump fans plus the electrical energy driving them.
    If the houses are not getting hotter then it's a bloody useless heating system.

    I hope you didn't think I was suggesting they would cause "global cooling" and make the heat disappear forever...
    Hotter than they were before the cold night. If the temperature is constant in the house (which is no doubt the case in those well-regulated Swedish homes!), what goes out equals what goes in. Of course as the night gets colder outside, more heat will be lost from the house, and the heat pump will have to work harder to compensate,
    So the net effect of all those heat pumps running (relative to an alternative heating mechanism) will be to negate part of the urban heat island effect.
    A bit, though a much better solution is to plant lots of trees.

    The energy required to evaporate water in leaves is huge. The US government reckon on a 1-5 degree cooling from evaporation (so even if you're not in the shade.)

    https://www.epa.gov/heatislands/using-trees-and-vegetation-reduce-heat-islands
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 15,451

    From Googling it, it appears that Tommy Robinson and the EDL opposed Scottish independence, they didn't support it. They also have sister organisations the WDL and SDL in Wales and Scotland.

    So no, they're not English nationalists. They're racists and that's all they are. They're no more nationalists, than Nazis are socialists.

    British nationalists, surely (as part of their programme). Or English imperialists. Logical surely from the evidence you present. Eityher that or they are a bit confused about the borders of England.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 12,638
    Andy_JS said:

    "@BritainElects
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 41% (+1)
    LAB: 30% (-1)
    LDEM: 13% (-)
    GRN: 8% (+2)

    via
    @IpsosMORI
    , 30 Jul - 09 Aug
    Chgs. w/ Jul"

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1425834782630440963

    Excellent. The third time of posting.
This discussion has been closed.