Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

In spite of the latest EU dealings those who think Brexit was wrong still have clear 8% lead with Yo

1246714

Comments

  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,477
    So how do we increase vacc. supply so there is genuinely more now (or soon) rather than arguing over the same pie?

    One possibility I can spot is for Sanofi to abandon their vaccine attempt (which I assume they are keeping manufacturing capacity aside for) and turn their manufacturing over to one of the other vaccines - Valneva looks the likeliest, as the French will never agree to AZN, and Pfizer has big issues concerning usability.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,752
    Carnyx said:

    That's quite a gap between the fastest & slowest:

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1355189454969987080?s=20

    WTF is going on in Scotland?

    Last thing Sturgeon needs now is a narrative about her doing worse than Boris in the rollout. It won't take much swing to prevent her gaining an SNP majority and then all the constitutional arguments vanish.
    SNP plus Greens, remember.
    Well, true, but it was SNP maj in 2011 which triggered the ref in 2014. I think it was John Curtice who recently said it would be a prerequisite for any future ref.

    Whatever, Boris will say no, anyway. Plan B is a dead duck as pointed out by Alex Bell here:

    https://www.thecourier.co.uk/fp/opinion/alex-bell/1926334/team-sturgeon-switches-indy-policy-as-salmond-smells-a-political-comeback/
  • felix said:

    I'm finding this thread boringly one sided and partisan - is there anyone out there to help Kinabalu and None of the Above - what's happened to you. These people need help! Now! We have a serious Remain shortage. Paging! Paging! They can't all have urgent vaccine appointments surely.

    Ha ha, thanks - I am not arguing from a remain side, more a keep calm British side, which unusually is perfectly in line with the UK governments and PMs excellent response so far. Will be intriguing to see if that holds out over the weekend or if he goes for some cheap popularity wins at home at the risk of escalation. On this I think he will do the right thing and keep calm as long as deliveries come through.

    For clarity the EU have behaved poorly as well as cocking up their vaccine programmes and this does show some of the weaknesses of the EU structures.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,398

    Just an FYI, I don't expect an AZ claim would necessarily take months if it is in London.

    I would expect the High Court to hear it in 2-3 weeks, plus the hearing and time for judgment. however that timeline of course starts with the claim being brought, which might take some time in itself.

    The AZN / EU contract isn't subject to UK law - it's Belgian from memory
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    Sandpit said:

    Chris said:

    eek said:

    MaxPB said:

    I wonder when the penny will drop in Berlaymont that all this will look even more stupid in a few weeks' time when the UK has continued to roll out the jabs and the EU's programme has gone backwards?

    Especially given that we've got Novavax coming and the EU can't block Moderna as it's made in Switzerland.

    I don't understand what the hell is going on in Brussels. They've all taken leave of their senses.
    Novavax being one that the EU are only now in the process of negotiating contracts for.
    We should just go in and gazzump them. For shits and giggles.
    The tragic thing is that the people the EU have done most damage to in this affair is their own citizens, and God knows they don't deserve to be in this mess without enough vaccine.
    The desperate want to gloat uncontrollably at the EU completely screwing this up and going mad about it, is only tempered by the fact that there’s several thousand Europeans dying of this terrible virus every day.

    In any other circumstance, I’d be rolling on the floor laughing, but would instead rather my parents get their full vaccines.
    No matter how badly this damages the EU or helps the Leave argument I would still be happier if it hadn't happened. A bit of political one up man ship is not worth all those unnecessary deaths.

    Amen brother
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,865

    UK R

    from case data

    image
    image

    from hospitalisation data

    image

    Tha UK R rate for case data does look to have been stubbornly flat-lining for 10 days or so.
    Below 1, which is really important, and the latest indicators are that the halving time is going down.
  • Age related data
    ...

    I quite like the look of the fall-off in the 85+ Admissions line. It looks encouragingly steep in the last week or so, suggesting the effect of the jabs is beginning to come through.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,357

    UK R

    from case data

    image
    image

    from hospitalisation data

    image

    Tha UK R rate for case data does look to have been stubbornly flat-lining for 10 days or so.
    I think that is all we are going to get, for the current level of restrictions vs current COVID versions.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Jesus Christ! Are they mad?!!! What’s happened to them?
    Hopefully that's just the nuance getting lost in translation and not the product of a fit of pique over the demise of the French vaccine projects.

    All this dicking about plus France's very high rates of vaccine hesitancy could land it in really serious and prolonged trouble. Firstly, that's also very bad news for us (not just because they're an important trading partner, but also because they could act as a reservoir for reimportation of the disease through the cross-Channel trade routes.) And Secondly, because every day France is stuck in lockdown cycles after other countries start to come out of them, the prospect of President le Pen increases.
  • Just an FYI, I don't expect an AZ claim would necessarily take months if it is in London.

    I would expect the High Court to hear it in 2-3 weeks, plus the hearing and time for judgment. however that timeline of course starts with the claim being brought, which might take some time in itself.

    First step would theoretically be an injunction to preserve the status quo and avoid harm wouldn’t it? Not sure who that would favour here.
  • felix said:

    I'm finding this thread boringly one sided and partisan - is there anyone out there to help Kinabalu and None of the Above - what's happened to you. These people need help! Now! We have a serious Remain shortage. Paging! Paging! They can't all have urgent vaccine appointments surely.

    Have you ever tried to join a daisy chain in mid engagement?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    edited January 2021

    So how do we increase vacc. supply so there is genuinely more now (or soon) rather than arguing over the same pie?

    One possibility I can spot is for Sanofi to abandon their vaccine attempt (which I assume they are keeping manufacturing capacity aside for) and turn their manufacturing over to one of the other vaccines - Valneva looks the likeliest, as the French will never agree to AZN, and Pfizer has big issues concerning usability.

    Sanofi have already agreed to produce the Pfizer jab under license I believe.

    EDIT: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-27/sanofi-to-make-millions-of-biontech-pfizer-s-covid-vaccine-doses
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,421
    Fishing said:

    That's quite a gap between the fastest & slowest:

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1355189454969987080?s=20

    Doesn't Scotland have an older, fatter, unhealthier population than England, too? So it's even more serious for them than it looks that they're lagging so far behind.
    Case rates in Scotland are currently about half those in England, on the figures from PCR testing, and I think the difference is a bit larger in the ONS survey, so you would expect that the NHS is not so close to breaking point in Scotland, and the urgency to vaccinate to head off an imminent collapse of the NHS is also less.

    I'd much rather that Scotland kept up with the vaccination rates seen elsewhere in the UK though.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,357
    Best new so far -

    image

    Massive differential in the rate at which the 85+ group admissions are coming down, vs other groups...
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Fishing said:

    MaxPB said:

    deleted, duplicate

    Are they really suggesting that the UK not export vaccines to Northern Ireland? I'm not sure I understand it properly.
    No, they are saying that they are excluding NI from the normal rule that NI/EU trade is not restricted (presumably because they think perfidious Albion would try to smuggle vaccines pinched from the EU allocation through NI). Bonkers again, and a very bad precedent for the NI protocol. It was supposed to be Boris who'd try to wriggle out of it, not the EU.
    I think it's terrible that the EU is jeopardising the Good Friday Agreement by setting up a hard border on the island of Ireland.

    Of course you'll hear nothing from Dublin or Biden about this.
    I await with bated breath sir abstain a lots hot take
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,933

    Best new so far -

    image

    Massive differential in the rate at which the 85+ group admissions are coming down, vs other groups...

    Can you make a quick one normalized to the peak rate in both groups?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,209
    Sandpit said:

    Chris said:

    eek said:

    MaxPB said:

    I wonder when the penny will drop in Berlaymont that all this will look even more stupid in a few weeks' time when the UK has continued to roll out the jabs and the EU's programme has gone backwards?

    Especially given that we've got Novavax coming and the EU can't block Moderna as it's made in Switzerland.

    I don't understand what the hell is going on in Brussels. They've all taken leave of their senses.
    Novavax being one that the EU are only now in the process of negotiating contracts for.
    We should just go in and gazzump them. For shits and giggles.
    The tragic thing is that the people the EU have done most damage to in this affair is their own citizens, and God knows they don't deserve to be in this mess without enough vaccine.
    The desperate want to gloat uncontrollably at the EU completely screwing this up and going mad about it, is only tempered by the fact that there’s several thousand Europeans dying of this terrible virus every day.

    In any other circumstance, I’d be rolling on the floor laughing, but would instead rather my parents get their full vaccines.
    That is good to hear, Sandpit. Off all the reactions available, it would not speak well of someone if they opted for rolling on the floor laughing.
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,878

    On polling, at the moment, I don't think most people are taking much notice beyond Europe are demanding their vaccine shipments of AZN.

    We haven't got to a stage of your Gran / Mum can't have their vaccine because the EU have stopped deliveries out of EU factories or have had UK made ones exported.

    I'd also suggest the fieldwork was 26th and 27th January.
    It wasn't till yesterday did this story really start to break, and break big.

    My wife, who is more Remain than Alistair Meeks (she cried on the morning of the 24th June 2016) and who has said for years its the biggest mistake the UK has ever engaged in, this morning said to me.... "The EU is trying to stop me getting my vaccine!" (She's scheduled in for tomorrow) and expressed a very slight disapproval of their actions yesterday.

    Poll her on Tuesday, the sun shines out the EUs arse still.
    Poll her TODAY.... less so.
  • RobD said:

    RobD said:

    MattW said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Does anyone who has read this policy note seriously think it bans Pfizer exporting from the EU to the UK? Calm down! Read the detail.

    https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/qanda_21_308

    It gives them the mechanism to do exactly that.
    It only covers exports of vaccines procured by the EU, not vaccines procured by the UK manufactured in the EU.
    Who decides what vaccines are procured by the EU? That's the central issue here.
    Initially Pfizer (or the other drug companies), but ultimately it could be the courts.
    And now those authorising exports too.
    The UK govt doesnt seem particularly concerned. Pfizer will continue to export here.
    Not unless some pen-pusher in Brussels says so.
    The vaccines will still arrive. Its an annoying, rubbish and counter productive decision from the EU but its not a ban and wont escalate into a vaccine trade war. In a 2-3 months time there will be enough vaccines available that all wealthy countries can show good progress and their electorates will be happy.
    It's an instrument that gives them the power to restrict vaccine exports. Why would they pass such legislation if they weren't seriously considering using it?
    It explicitly does not give them the power to stop vaccines procured by the UK being exported, it simply requires notification. To stop it being exported they would have to show in a court that the vaccine was procured by the EU not the UK, which if its anything like the AZ contract, they wont be able to do.
    Their FAQ says they have the power to grant or refuse an export authorisation.

    In deciding whether to grant an export authorisation under this Regulation, Member States, together with the Commission, shall assess whether the volume of exports is not such that it poses a threat to the execution of the Advance Purchase Agreements the EU has concluded with vaccine manufacturers.
    https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/qanda_21_308
    Sure, but the decision isnt just a preference of some bureaucrat, procedures that stand up to the lawyers of Pfizer and AZ need to be applied.

    "This is not an export ban. This measure would specifically target exports of COVID-19 vaccines covered by an Advance Purchase Agreement (APA) with the EU."

    If its vaccines covered by an APA with the UK rather than the EU it will be allowed to be exported.
    No, it's not an export ban. But it could turn into one if the authorisation is not granted.
    Agreed!
    You earlier said that it explicitly did not give them the power to stop vaccines procured by the UK? It does, because they can just claim it was for the EU as per the current row with AZN.
    OK - I thought you meant the data and structures around notification could easily be expanded to a ban if they so wished.

    Look at it this way, if they wanted to ban Pfizer deliveries in February say, why on earth would they have written the policy in this way? Why not just ban all exports? Why only give themselves a tenuous interpretation to take on Pfizers lawyers with?
  • eek said:

    Just an FYI, I don't expect an AZ claim would necessarily take months if it is in London.

    I would expect the High Court to hear it in 2-3 weeks, plus the hearing and time for judgment. however that timeline of course starts with the claim being brought, which might take some time in itself.

    The AZN / EU contract isn't subject to UK law - it's Belgian from memory
    Yes sorry eek, I realise people don't actually track my posts and therefore be able to work out what I meant. Obviously I don't know Belgian court timescales.
  • RobD said:

    Floater said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    That's quite a gap between the fastest & slowest:

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1355189454969987080?s=20

    NI not taking any crap from Wales now.
    RobD said:

    That's quite a gap between the fastest & slowest:

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1355189454969987080?s=20

    NI not taking any crap from Wales now.
    England in danger.
    Makes sense that smaller, more nimble countries are doing better. ;)
    What about Scotland ? *innocent face***
    To be fair, I think that was the decision to really focus on care homes, above the general population. I can see advantages and disadvantages to that approach.
    Just so.

    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1354939266158260224?s=21
  • eekeek Posts: 28,398
    edited January 2021

    So how do we increase vacc. supply so there is genuinely more now (or soon) rather than arguing over the same pie?

    One possibility I can spot is for Sanofi to abandon their vaccine attempt (which I assume they are keeping manufacturing capacity aside for) and turn their manufacturing over to one of the other vaccines - Valneva looks the likeliest, as the French will never agree to AZN, and Pfizer has big issues concerning usability.

    Sanofi have already agreed to produce the Pfizer jab under license I believe.

    EDIT: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-27/sanofi-to-make-millions-of-biontech-pfizer-s-covid-vaccine-doses
    But and this is the big But.

    It won't be coming off their production line tomorrow as it takes time to set up the production line for these vaccines and then additional time to manufacture it and during all that lead time things can go wrong resulting in the lead time being extended.

    And it's the lead time and the risks and delays that occur within that lead time which has bitten the EU.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,933

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    MattW said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Does anyone who has read this policy note seriously think it bans Pfizer exporting from the EU to the UK? Calm down! Read the detail.

    https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/qanda_21_308

    It gives them the mechanism to do exactly that.
    It only covers exports of vaccines procured by the EU, not vaccines procured by the UK manufactured in the EU.
    Who decides what vaccines are procured by the EU? That's the central issue here.
    Initially Pfizer (or the other drug companies), but ultimately it could be the courts.
    And now those authorising exports too.
    The UK govt doesnt seem particularly concerned. Pfizer will continue to export here.
    Not unless some pen-pusher in Brussels says so.
    The vaccines will still arrive. Its an annoying, rubbish and counter productive decision from the EU but its not a ban and wont escalate into a vaccine trade war. In a 2-3 months time there will be enough vaccines available that all wealthy countries can show good progress and their electorates will be happy.
    It's an instrument that gives them the power to restrict vaccine exports. Why would they pass such legislation if they weren't seriously considering using it?
    It explicitly does not give them the power to stop vaccines procured by the UK being exported, it simply requires notification. To stop it being exported they would have to show in a court that the vaccine was procured by the EU not the UK, which if its anything like the AZ contract, they wont be able to do.
    Their FAQ says they have the power to grant or refuse an export authorisation.

    In deciding whether to grant an export authorisation under this Regulation, Member States, together with the Commission, shall assess whether the volume of exports is not such that it poses a threat to the execution of the Advance Purchase Agreements the EU has concluded with vaccine manufacturers.
    https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/qanda_21_308
    Sure, but the decision isnt just a preference of some bureaucrat, procedures that stand up to the lawyers of Pfizer and AZ need to be applied.

    "This is not an export ban. This measure would specifically target exports of COVID-19 vaccines covered by an Advance Purchase Agreement (APA) with the EU."

    If its vaccines covered by an APA with the UK rather than the EU it will be allowed to be exported.
    No, it's not an export ban. But it could turn into one if the authorisation is not granted.
    Agreed!
    You earlier said that it explicitly did not give them the power to stop vaccines procured by the UK? It does, because they can just claim it was for the EU as per the current row with AZN.
    OK - I thought you meant the data and structures around notification could easily be expanded to a ban if they so wished.

    Look at it this way, if they wanted to ban Pfizer deliveries in February say, why on earth would they have written the policy in this way? Why not just ban all exports? Why only give themselves a tenuous interpretation to take on Pfizers lawyers with?
    But they can ban all exports, they just refuse authorisation. It has the same effect.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,477

    So how do we increase vacc. supply so there is genuinely more now (or soon) rather than arguing over the same pie?

    One possibility I can spot is for Sanofi to abandon their vaccine attempt (which I assume they are keeping manufacturing capacity aside for) and turn their manufacturing over to one of the other vaccines - Valneva looks the likeliest, as the French will never agree to AZN, and Pfizer has big issues concerning usability.

    Sanofi have already agreed to produce the Pfizer jab under license I believe.

    EDIT: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-27/sanofi-to-make-millions-of-biontech-pfizer-s-covid-vaccine-doses
    Thanks - sensible.

  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    eek said:

    Just an FYI, I don't expect an AZ claim would necessarily take months if it is in London.

    I would expect the High Court to hear it in 2-3 weeks, plus the hearing and time for judgment. however that timeline of course starts with the claim being brought, which might take some time in itself.

    The AZN / EU contract isn't subject to UK law - it's Belgian from memory
    Yes it is - scroll down thread to where I posted a Belgium contract lawyers view


    Spoiler - he thinks the EU have not a leg to stand on.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486

    Best new so far -

    image

    Massive differential in the rate at which the 85+ group admissions are coming down, vs other groups...

    Crikey. When I first saw that, I assumed it was an Excel fail.

    You sure that's right?

    Very big news if you are correct!
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,028
    Bizarrely - when it feels threatened, all of the EUs previously held principles seem to rapidly melt away..
  • felix said:

    I'm finding this thread boringly one sided and partisan - is there anyone out there to help Kinabalu and None of the Above - what's happened to you. These people need help! Now! We have a serious Remain shortage. Paging! Paging! They can't all have urgent vaccine appointments surely.

    This isn't about Leave or Remain. It is about an organisation behaving like an arse. It could just as easily be a single country. That is why so many Remain supporters are amongst the most critical.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,933

    Best new so far -

    image

    Massive differential in the rate at which the 85+ group admissions are coming down, vs other groups...

    Crikey. When I first saw that, I assumed it was an Excel fail.

    You sure that's right?

    Very big news if you are correct!
    Well, the zero at the end is an Excel snafu. lol
  • eekeek Posts: 28,398

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    MattW said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Does anyone who has read this policy note seriously think it bans Pfizer exporting from the EU to the UK? Calm down! Read the detail.

    https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/qanda_21_308

    It gives them the mechanism to do exactly that.
    It only covers exports of vaccines procured by the EU, not vaccines procured by the UK manufactured in the EU.
    Who decides what vaccines are procured by the EU? That's the central issue here.
    Initially Pfizer (or the other drug companies), but ultimately it could be the courts.
    And now those authorising exports too.
    The UK govt doesnt seem particularly concerned. Pfizer will continue to export here.
    Not unless some pen-pusher in Brussels says so.
    The vaccines will still arrive. Its an annoying, rubbish and counter productive decision from the EU but its not a ban and wont escalate into a vaccine trade war. In a 2-3 months time there will be enough vaccines available that all wealthy countries can show good progress and their electorates will be happy.
    It's an instrument that gives them the power to restrict vaccine exports. Why would they pass such legislation if they weren't seriously considering using it?
    It explicitly does not give them the power to stop vaccines procured by the UK being exported, it simply requires notification. To stop it being exported they would have to show in a court that the vaccine was procured by the EU not the UK, which if its anything like the AZ contract, they wont be able to do.
    Their FAQ says they have the power to grant or refuse an export authorisation.

    In deciding whether to grant an export authorisation under this Regulation, Member States, together with the Commission, shall assess whether the volume of exports is not such that it poses a threat to the execution of the Advance Purchase Agreements the EU has concluded with vaccine manufacturers.
    https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/qanda_21_308
    Sure, but the decision isnt just a preference of some bureaucrat, procedures that stand up to the lawyers of Pfizer and AZ need to be applied.

    "This is not an export ban. This measure would specifically target exports of COVID-19 vaccines covered by an Advance Purchase Agreement (APA) with the EU."

    If its vaccines covered by an APA with the UK rather than the EU it will be allowed to be exported.
    No, it's not an export ban. But it could turn into one if the authorisation is not granted.
    Agreed!
    You earlier said that it explicitly did not give them the power to stop vaccines procured by the UK? It does, because they can just claim it was for the EU as per the current row with AZN.
    OK - I thought you meant the data and structures around notification could easily be expanded to a ban if they so wished.

    Look at it this way, if they wanted to ban Pfizer deliveries in February say, why on earth would they have written the policy in this way? Why not just ban all exports? Why only give themselves a tenuous interpretation to take on Pfizers lawyers with?
    Because an outright ban is obvious.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,879
    edited January 2021

    Carnyx said:

    That's quite a gap between the fastest & slowest:

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1355189454969987080?s=20

    WTF is going on in Scotland?

    Last thing Sturgeon needs now is a narrative about her doing worse than Boris in the rollout. It won't take much swing to prevent her gaining an SNP majority and then all the constitutional arguments vanish.
    SNP plus Greens, remember.
    Well, true, but it was SNP maj in 2011 which triggered the ref in 2014. I think it was John Curtice who recently said it would be a prerequisite for any future ref.

    Whatever, Boris will say no, anyway. Plan B is a dead duck as pointed out by Alex Bell here:

    https://www.thecourier.co.uk/fp/opinion/alex-bell/1926334/team-sturgeon-switches-indy-policy-as-salmond-smells-a-political-comeback/
    I don't rate Bell much. To me he seems too kmuch of a professional anti-SNP writer for the Unionist press.

    Actually I was just reading the Staggers> it's got quite a range of recvent pieces on Scots politics at present, and even the Scotsman is running a piece showing how a Plan B could well work (edit: sorted).

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/scotland/2021/01/why-english-left-should-not-stand-way-scottish-independence

    https://www.scotsman.com/news/opinion/columnists/could-scotland-stage-independence-referendum-without-uk-approval-what-law-says-3111687
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,933

    RobD said:

    Floater said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    That's quite a gap between the fastest & slowest:

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1355189454969987080?s=20

    NI not taking any crap from Wales now.
    RobD said:

    That's quite a gap between the fastest & slowest:

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1355189454969987080?s=20

    NI not taking any crap from Wales now.
    England in danger.
    Makes sense that smaller, more nimble countries are doing better. ;)
    What about Scotland ? *innocent face***
    To be fair, I think that was the decision to really focus on care homes, above the general population. I can see advantages and disadvantages to that approach.
    Just so.

    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1354939266158260224?s=21
    That's not to say England aren't focusing also on that population, just not to the same extent. I've not read any stats on the relative vaccination rates in care homes.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,865

    Best new so far -

    image

    Massive differential in the rate at which the 85+ group admissions are coming down, vs other groups...

    Crikey. When I first saw that, I assumed it was an Excel fail.

    You sure that's right?

    Very big news if you are correct!
    Lol, not the drop to 0, the bit before that. I think it's a quirk of the way the script runs and generates the graphs.
  • eek said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    MattW said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Does anyone who has read this policy note seriously think it bans Pfizer exporting from the EU to the UK? Calm down! Read the detail.

    https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/qanda_21_308

    It gives them the mechanism to do exactly that.
    It only covers exports of vaccines procured by the EU, not vaccines procured by the UK manufactured in the EU.
    Who decides what vaccines are procured by the EU? That's the central issue here.
    Initially Pfizer (or the other drug companies), but ultimately it could be the courts.
    And now those authorising exports too.
    The UK govt doesnt seem particularly concerned. Pfizer will continue to export here.
    Not unless some pen-pusher in Brussels says so.
    The vaccines will still arrive. Its an annoying, rubbish and counter productive decision from the EU but its not a ban and wont escalate into a vaccine trade war. In a 2-3 months time there will be enough vaccines available that all wealthy countries can show good progress and their electorates will be happy.
    It's an instrument that gives them the power to restrict vaccine exports. Why would they pass such legislation if they weren't seriously considering using it?
    It explicitly does not give them the power to stop vaccines procured by the UK being exported, it simply requires notification. To stop it being exported they would have to show in a court that the vaccine was procured by the EU not the UK, which if its anything like the AZ contract, they wont be able to do.
    Their FAQ says they have the power to grant or refuse an export authorisation.

    In deciding whether to grant an export authorisation under this Regulation, Member States, together with the Commission, shall assess whether the volume of exports is not such that it poses a threat to the execution of the Advance Purchase Agreements the EU has concluded with vaccine manufacturers.
    https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/qanda_21_308
    Sure, but the decision isnt just a preference of some bureaucrat, procedures that stand up to the lawyers of Pfizer and AZ need to be applied.

    "This is not an export ban. This measure would specifically target exports of COVID-19 vaccines covered by an Advance Purchase Agreement (APA) with the EU."

    If its vaccines covered by an APA with the UK rather than the EU it will be allowed to be exported.
    No, it's not an export ban. But it could turn into one if the authorisation is not granted.
    Agreed!
    You earlier said that it explicitly did not give them the power to stop vaccines procured by the UK? It does, because they can just claim it was for the EU as per the current row with AZN.
    OK - I thought you meant the data and structures around notification could easily be expanded to a ban if they so wished.

    Look at it this way, if they wanted to ban Pfizer deliveries in February say, why on earth would they have written the policy in this way? Why not just ban all exports? Why only give themselves a tenuous interpretation to take on Pfizers lawyers with?
    Because an outright ban is obvious.
    If they ban exports to the UK it will all escalate very quickly, they know that is not in their interests. File under wont happen. Anyway work to do.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,357
    RobD said:

    Best new so far -

    image

    Massive differential in the rate at which the 85+ group admissions are coming down, vs other groups...

    Crikey. When I first saw that, I assumed it was an Excel fail.

    You sure that's right?

    Very big news if you are correct!
    Well, the zero at the end is an Excel snafu. lol
    Artefact of the way the data is presented by the PHE database - they sometimes present day-of data with all zero values. I could remove it, but that would require effort. And I very, very lazy.

    What will be interesting is seeing if/when this feeds in to the next category down - the 65-84 group.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,933

    eek said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    MattW said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Does anyone who has read this policy note seriously think it bans Pfizer exporting from the EU to the UK? Calm down! Read the detail.

    https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/qanda_21_308

    It gives them the mechanism to do exactly that.
    It only covers exports of vaccines procured by the EU, not vaccines procured by the UK manufactured in the EU.
    Who decides what vaccines are procured by the EU? That's the central issue here.
    Initially Pfizer (or the other drug companies), but ultimately it could be the courts.
    And now those authorising exports too.
    The UK govt doesnt seem particularly concerned. Pfizer will continue to export here.
    Not unless some pen-pusher in Brussels says so.
    The vaccines will still arrive. Its an annoying, rubbish and counter productive decision from the EU but its not a ban and wont escalate into a vaccine trade war. In a 2-3 months time there will be enough vaccines available that all wealthy countries can show good progress and their electorates will be happy.
    It's an instrument that gives them the power to restrict vaccine exports. Why would they pass such legislation if they weren't seriously considering using it?
    It explicitly does not give them the power to stop vaccines procured by the UK being exported, it simply requires notification. To stop it being exported they would have to show in a court that the vaccine was procured by the EU not the UK, which if its anything like the AZ contract, they wont be able to do.
    Their FAQ says they have the power to grant or refuse an export authorisation.

    In deciding whether to grant an export authorisation under this Regulation, Member States, together with the Commission, shall assess whether the volume of exports is not such that it poses a threat to the execution of the Advance Purchase Agreements the EU has concluded with vaccine manufacturers.
    https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/qanda_21_308
    Sure, but the decision isnt just a preference of some bureaucrat, procedures that stand up to the lawyers of Pfizer and AZ need to be applied.

    "This is not an export ban. This measure would specifically target exports of COVID-19 vaccines covered by an Advance Purchase Agreement (APA) with the EU."

    If its vaccines covered by an APA with the UK rather than the EU it will be allowed to be exported.
    No, it's not an export ban. But it could turn into one if the authorisation is not granted.
    Agreed!
    You earlier said that it explicitly did not give them the power to stop vaccines procured by the UK? It does, because they can just claim it was for the EU as per the current row with AZN.
    OK - I thought you meant the data and structures around notification could easily be expanded to a ban if they so wished.

    Look at it this way, if they wanted to ban Pfizer deliveries in February say, why on earth would they have written the policy in this way? Why not just ban all exports? Why only give themselves a tenuous interpretation to take on Pfizers lawyers with?
    Because an outright ban is obvious.
    If they ban exports to the UK it will all escalate very quickly, they know that is not in their interests. File under wont happen. Anyway work to do.
    They are 95% of the way there. People were suggesting it would never get this far in the first place.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,220
    edited January 2021

    So how do we increase vacc. supply so there is genuinely more now (or soon) rather than arguing over the same pie?

    One possibility I can spot is for Sanofi to abandon their vaccine attempt (which I assume they are keeping manufacturing capacity aside for) and turn their manufacturing over to one of the other vaccines - Valneva looks the likeliest, as the French will never agree to AZN, and Pfizer has big issues concerning usability.

    The Novavax vaccine is probably the most similar to the GSK/Sanofi effort.
    And has reported successful PIII results, which Valneva hasn't yet.

    Valneva is inactivated virus, which is a very different manufacturing process.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    RobD said:

    eek said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    MattW said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Does anyone who has read this policy note seriously think it bans Pfizer exporting from the EU to the UK? Calm down! Read the detail.

    https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/qanda_21_308

    It gives them the mechanism to do exactly that.
    It only covers exports of vaccines procured by the EU, not vaccines procured by the UK manufactured in the EU.
    Who decides what vaccines are procured by the EU? That's the central issue here.
    Initially Pfizer (or the other drug companies), but ultimately it could be the courts.
    And now those authorising exports too.
    The UK govt doesnt seem particularly concerned. Pfizer will continue to export here.
    Not unless some pen-pusher in Brussels says so.
    The vaccines will still arrive. Its an annoying, rubbish and counter productive decision from the EU but its not a ban and wont escalate into a vaccine trade war. In a 2-3 months time there will be enough vaccines available that all wealthy countries can show good progress and their electorates will be happy.
    It's an instrument that gives them the power to restrict vaccine exports. Why would they pass such legislation if they weren't seriously considering using it?
    It explicitly does not give them the power to stop vaccines procured by the UK being exported, it simply requires notification. To stop it being exported they would have to show in a court that the vaccine was procured by the EU not the UK, which if its anything like the AZ contract, they wont be able to do.
    Their FAQ says they have the power to grant or refuse an export authorisation.

    In deciding whether to grant an export authorisation under this Regulation, Member States, together with the Commission, shall assess whether the volume of exports is not such that it poses a threat to the execution of the Advance Purchase Agreements the EU has concluded with vaccine manufacturers.
    https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/qanda_21_308
    Sure, but the decision isnt just a preference of some bureaucrat, procedures that stand up to the lawyers of Pfizer and AZ need to be applied.

    "This is not an export ban. This measure would specifically target exports of COVID-19 vaccines covered by an Advance Purchase Agreement (APA) with the EU."

    If its vaccines covered by an APA with the UK rather than the EU it will be allowed to be exported.
    No, it's not an export ban. But it could turn into one if the authorisation is not granted.
    Agreed!
    You earlier said that it explicitly did not give them the power to stop vaccines procured by the UK? It does, because they can just claim it was for the EU as per the current row with AZN.
    OK - I thought you meant the data and structures around notification could easily be expanded to a ban if they so wished.

    Look at it this way, if they wanted to ban Pfizer deliveries in February say, why on earth would they have written the policy in this way? Why not just ban all exports? Why only give themselves a tenuous interpretation to take on Pfizers lawyers with?
    Because an outright ban is obvious.
    If they ban exports to the UK it will all escalate very quickly, they know that is not in their interests. File under wont happen. Anyway work to do.
    They are 95% of the way there. People were suggesting it would never get this far in the first place.
    Yes that was me, and I can't believe it has. I'm very disappointed.
  • How many future deaths has Macron just caused with fatuous and fact free remarks?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,879

    Fishing said:

    That's quite a gap between the fastest & slowest:

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1355189454969987080?s=20

    Doesn't Scotland have an older, fatter, unhealthier population than England, too? So it's even more serious for them than it looks that they're lagging so far behind.
    Case rates in Scotland are currently about half those in England, on the figures from PCR testing, and I think the difference is a bit larger in the ONS survey, so you would expect that the NHS is not so close to breaking point in Scotland, and the urgency to vaccinate to head off an imminent collapse of the NHS is also less.

    I'd much rather that Scotland kept up with the vaccination rates seen elsewhere in the UK though.
    Different approach - focussing on care homes and housebound, so slower to begin with.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,933

    RobD said:

    eek said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    MattW said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Does anyone who has read this policy note seriously think it bans Pfizer exporting from the EU to the UK? Calm down! Read the detail.

    https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/qanda_21_308

    It gives them the mechanism to do exactly that.
    It only covers exports of vaccines procured by the EU, not vaccines procured by the UK manufactured in the EU.
    Who decides what vaccines are procured by the EU? That's the central issue here.
    Initially Pfizer (or the other drug companies), but ultimately it could be the courts.
    And now those authorising exports too.
    The UK govt doesnt seem particularly concerned. Pfizer will continue to export here.
    Not unless some pen-pusher in Brussels says so.
    The vaccines will still arrive. Its an annoying, rubbish and counter productive decision from the EU but its not a ban and wont escalate into a vaccine trade war. In a 2-3 months time there will be enough vaccines available that all wealthy countries can show good progress and their electorates will be happy.
    It's an instrument that gives them the power to restrict vaccine exports. Why would they pass such legislation if they weren't seriously considering using it?
    It explicitly does not give them the power to stop vaccines procured by the UK being exported, it simply requires notification. To stop it being exported they would have to show in a court that the vaccine was procured by the EU not the UK, which if its anything like the AZ contract, they wont be able to do.
    Their FAQ says they have the power to grant or refuse an export authorisation.

    In deciding whether to grant an export authorisation under this Regulation, Member States, together with the Commission, shall assess whether the volume of exports is not such that it poses a threat to the execution of the Advance Purchase Agreements the EU has concluded with vaccine manufacturers.
    https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/qanda_21_308
    Sure, but the decision isnt just a preference of some bureaucrat, procedures that stand up to the lawyers of Pfizer and AZ need to be applied.

    "This is not an export ban. This measure would specifically target exports of COVID-19 vaccines covered by an Advance Purchase Agreement (APA) with the EU."

    If its vaccines covered by an APA with the UK rather than the EU it will be allowed to be exported.
    No, it's not an export ban. But it could turn into one if the authorisation is not granted.
    Agreed!
    You earlier said that it explicitly did not give them the power to stop vaccines procured by the UK? It does, because they can just claim it was for the EU as per the current row with AZN.
    OK - I thought you meant the data and structures around notification could easily be expanded to a ban if they so wished.

    Look at it this way, if they wanted to ban Pfizer deliveries in February say, why on earth would they have written the policy in this way? Why not just ban all exports? Why only give themselves a tenuous interpretation to take on Pfizers lawyers with?
    Because an outright ban is obvious.
    If they ban exports to the UK it will all escalate very quickly, they know that is not in their interests. File under wont happen. Anyway work to do.
    They are 95% of the way there. People were suggesting it would never get this far in the first place.
    Yes that was me, and I can't believe it has. I'm very disappointed.
    Sorry, wasn't moaning about anyone in particular, was using "people" in the vaguest sense possible.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,036
    BBC:

    "Arrivals into Birmingham Airport included 21-year-old student Emma Rhodes, who had been on a two-week holiday and was due to arrive back on Friday.

    Asked about criticism of those who had chosen to travel abroad for non-business trips, she said: "I had personal reasons why I went, I needed some 'me' time."

    Lock her up. Numpty.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,477
    Nigelb said:

    So how do we increase vacc. supply so there is genuinely more now (or soon) rather than arguing over the same pie?

    One possibility I can spot is for Sanofi to abandon their vaccine attempt (which I assume they are keeping manufacturing capacity aside for) and turn their manufacturing over to one of the other vaccines - Valneva looks the likeliest, as the French will never agree to AZN, and Pfizer has big issues concerning usability.

    The Novavax vaccine is probably the most similar to the GSK/Sanofi effort.
    As Gallowgate has shown, it seems they've partnered with Pfizer - I am not entirely sure it was the best partner vaccine-wise, but as Pfizer are doing this as a profit making exercise, it was possibly the most attractive partner commercially.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,600

    Best new so far -

    image

    Massive differential in the rate at which the 85+ group admissions are coming down, vs other groups...

    Looking forward to seeing a real step change next week.
  • Build a wall around France....they are going to have this plague forever with that sort of attitude from their leader...
  • RobD said:

    eek said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    MattW said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Does anyone who has read this policy note seriously think it bans Pfizer exporting from the EU to the UK? Calm down! Read the detail.

    https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/qanda_21_308

    It gives them the mechanism to do exactly that.
    It only covers exports of vaccines procured by the EU, not vaccines procured by the UK manufactured in the EU.
    Who decides what vaccines are procured by the EU? That's the central issue here.
    Initially Pfizer (or the other drug companies), but ultimately it could be the courts.
    And now those authorising exports too.
    The UK govt doesnt seem particularly concerned. Pfizer will continue to export here.
    Not unless some pen-pusher in Brussels says so.
    The vaccines will still arrive. Its an annoying, rubbish and counter productive decision from the EU but its not a ban and wont escalate into a vaccine trade war. In a 2-3 months time there will be enough vaccines available that all wealthy countries can show good progress and their electorates will be happy.
    It's an instrument that gives them the power to restrict vaccine exports. Why would they pass such legislation if they weren't seriously considering using it?
    It explicitly does not give them the power to stop vaccines procured by the UK being exported, it simply requires notification. To stop it being exported they would have to show in a court that the vaccine was procured by the EU not the UK, which if its anything like the AZ contract, they wont be able to do.
    Their FAQ says they have the power to grant or refuse an export authorisation.

    In deciding whether to grant an export authorisation under this Regulation, Member States, together with the Commission, shall assess whether the volume of exports is not such that it poses a threat to the execution of the Advance Purchase Agreements the EU has concluded with vaccine manufacturers.
    https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/qanda_21_308
    Sure, but the decision isnt just a preference of some bureaucrat, procedures that stand up to the lawyers of Pfizer and AZ need to be applied.

    "This is not an export ban. This measure would specifically target exports of COVID-19 vaccines covered by an Advance Purchase Agreement (APA) with the EU."

    If its vaccines covered by an APA with the UK rather than the EU it will be allowed to be exported.
    No, it's not an export ban. But it could turn into one if the authorisation is not granted.
    Agreed!
    You earlier said that it explicitly did not give them the power to stop vaccines procured by the UK? It does, because they can just claim it was for the EU as per the current row with AZN.
    OK - I thought you meant the data and structures around notification could easily be expanded to a ban if they so wished.

    Look at it this way, if they wanted to ban Pfizer deliveries in February say, why on earth would they have written the policy in this way? Why not just ban all exports? Why only give themselves a tenuous interpretation to take on Pfizers lawyers with?
    Because an outright ban is obvious.
    If they ban exports to the UK it will all escalate very quickly, they know that is not in their interests. File under wont happen. Anyway work to do.
    They are 95% of the way there. People were suggesting it would never get this far in the first place.
    Yes that was me, and I can't believe it has. I'm very disappointed.
    Got to admit I was also one of those saying the EU would never consider doing this. It does seem wildly self defeating. My overwhelming feelings today are of sadness and anger at what this means for people in the EU.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,933
    edited January 2021

    Build a wall around France....they are going to have this plague forever with that sort of attitude from their leader...
    Less keen on Troyes now.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751

    Jesus Christ! Are they mad?!!! What’s happened to them?
    Will their electors not think it rather strange that they are at one and the same time throwing a tantrum over restricted supplies of AZ and coming out with speculative amateur opinions like this about its ineffectiveness - to say nothing of undermining their own vaccination programmes? It is quite bizarre.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,357
    MaxPB said:

    Best new so far -

    image

    Massive differential in the rate at which the 85+ group admissions are coming down, vs other groups...

    Crikey. When I first saw that, I assumed it was an Excel fail.

    You sure that's right?

    Very big news if you are correct!
    Lol, not the drop to 0, the bit before that. I think it's a quirk of the way the script runs and generates the graphs.
    It is a quirk, I suppose I should get rid of the all zero data that PHE sometimes send for the day-of
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,878

    Floater said:

    Honest question - how much of this is spite because we left?

    It's spite because we're visibly doing something better than them, and when the Commission made a song and dance about taking over vaccine procurement from the member states, the optics of that are terrible for them.
    Who are you, and how have you managed to get William's login details?
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    RobD said:

    eek said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    MattW said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Does anyone who has read this policy note seriously think it bans Pfizer exporting from the EU to the UK? Calm down! Read the detail.

    https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/qanda_21_308

    It gives them the mechanism to do exactly that.
    It only covers exports of vaccines procured by the EU, not vaccines procured by the UK manufactured in the EU.
    Who decides what vaccines are procured by the EU? That's the central issue here.
    Initially Pfizer (or the other drug companies), but ultimately it could be the courts.
    And now those authorising exports too.
    The UK govt doesnt seem particularly concerned. Pfizer will continue to export here.
    Not unless some pen-pusher in Brussels says so.
    The vaccines will still arrive. Its an annoying, rubbish and counter productive decision from the EU but its not a ban and wont escalate into a vaccine trade war. In a 2-3 months time there will be enough vaccines available that all wealthy countries can show good progress and their electorates will be happy.
    It's an instrument that gives them the power to restrict vaccine exports. Why would they pass such legislation if they weren't seriously considering using it?
    It explicitly does not give them the power to stop vaccines procured by the UK being exported, it simply requires notification. To stop it being exported they would have to show in a court that the vaccine was procured by the EU not the UK, which if its anything like the AZ contract, they wont be able to do.
    Their FAQ says they have the power to grant or refuse an export authorisation.

    In deciding whether to grant an export authorisation under this Regulation, Member States, together with the Commission, shall assess whether the volume of exports is not such that it poses a threat to the execution of the Advance Purchase Agreements the EU has concluded with vaccine manufacturers.
    https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/qanda_21_308
    Sure, but the decision isnt just a preference of some bureaucrat, procedures that stand up to the lawyers of Pfizer and AZ need to be applied.

    "This is not an export ban. This measure would specifically target exports of COVID-19 vaccines covered by an Advance Purchase Agreement (APA) with the EU."

    If its vaccines covered by an APA with the UK rather than the EU it will be allowed to be exported.
    No, it's not an export ban. But it could turn into one if the authorisation is not granted.
    Agreed!
    You earlier said that it explicitly did not give them the power to stop vaccines procured by the UK? It does, because they can just claim it was for the EU as per the current row with AZN.
    OK - I thought you meant the data and structures around notification could easily be expanded to a ban if they so wished.

    Look at it this way, if they wanted to ban Pfizer deliveries in February say, why on earth would they have written the policy in this way? Why not just ban all exports? Why only give themselves a tenuous interpretation to take on Pfizers lawyers with?
    Because an outright ban is obvious.
    If they ban exports to the UK it will all escalate very quickly, they know that is not in their interests. File under wont happen. Anyway work to do.
    They are 95% of the way there. People were suggesting it would never get this far in the first place.
    Yes that was me, and I can't believe it has. I'm very disappointed.
    I think most people thought sanity would prevail - it still might, but looking less likely by the hour
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,752
    Carnyx said:

    Fishing said:

    That's quite a gap between the fastest & slowest:

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1355189454969987080?s=20

    Doesn't Scotland have an older, fatter, unhealthier population than England, too? So it's even more serious for them than it looks that they're lagging so far behind.
    Case rates in Scotland are currently about half those in England, on the figures from PCR testing, and I think the difference is a bit larger in the ONS survey, so you would expect that the NHS is not so close to breaking point in Scotland, and the urgency to vaccinate to head off an imminent collapse of the NHS is also less.

    I'd much rather that Scotland kept up with the vaccination rates seen elsewhere in the UK though.
    Different approach - focussing on care homes and housebound, so slower to begin with.
    So should be speeding up now?

    https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/19050497.number-scottish-mass-vaccination-centres-halved-amid-confusion/
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,220

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    MattW said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Does anyone who has read this policy note seriously think it bans Pfizer exporting from the EU to the UK? Calm down! Read the detail.

    https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/qanda_21_308

    It gives them the mechanism to do exactly that.
    It only covers exports of vaccines procured by the EU, not vaccines procured by the UK manufactured in the EU.
    Who decides what vaccines are procured by the EU? That's the central issue here.
    Initially Pfizer (or the other drug companies), but ultimately it could be the courts.
    And now those authorising exports too.
    The UK govt doesnt seem particularly concerned. Pfizer will continue to export here.
    Not unless some pen-pusher in Brussels says so.
    The vaccines will still arrive. Its an annoying, rubbish and counter productive decision from the EU but its not a ban and wont escalate into a vaccine trade war. In a 2-3 months time there will be enough vaccines available that all wealthy countries can show good progress and their electorates will be happy.
    It's an instrument that gives them the power to restrict vaccine exports. Why would they pass such legislation if they weren't seriously considering using it?
    It explicitly does not give them the power to stop vaccines procured by the UK being exported, it simply requires notification. To stop it being exported they would have to show in a court that the vaccine was procured by the EU not the UK, which if its anything like the AZ contract, they wont be able to do.
    Their FAQ says they have the power to grant or refuse an export authorisation.

    In deciding whether to grant an export authorisation under this Regulation, Member States, together with the Commission, shall assess whether the volume of exports is not such that it poses a threat to the execution of the Advance Purchase Agreements the EU has concluded with vaccine manufacturers.
    https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/qanda_21_308
    Sure, but the decision isnt just a preference of some bureaucrat, procedures that stand up to the lawyers of Pfizer and AZ need to be applied.

    "This is not an export ban. This measure would specifically target exports of COVID-19 vaccines covered by an Advance Purchase Agreement (APA) with the EU."

    If its vaccines covered by an APA with the UK rather than the EU it will be allowed to be exported.
    No, it's not an export ban. But it could turn into one if the authorisation is not granted.
    Agreed!
    You earlier said that it explicitly did not give them the power to stop vaccines procured by the UK? It does, because they can just claim it was for the EU as per the current row with AZN.
    OK - I thought you meant the data and structures around notification could easily be expanded to a ban if they so wished.

    Look at it this way, if they wanted to ban Pfizer deliveries in February say, why on earth would they have written the policy in this way? Why not just ban all exports? Why only give themselves a tenuous interpretation to take on Pfizers lawyers with?
    The preservation of a veneer of credibility.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,865
    Nigelb said:

    Jesus Christ! Are they mad?!!! What’s happened to them?
    It does lead one to ask, if they think the vaccine is ineffective (it isn't, of course), why are they so desperate to get hold if it ?
    It's completely maddening. They're undermining the global vaccination effort and muddying the waters for the vaccine that is going to be most used in the developing world.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,209
    edited January 2021
    "Today everything suggests that it is almost ineffective for those over 65 and some say over 60."

    If this is an accurate translation of what President Macron said today about the AZ vaccine, I'm afraid it pushes him in my book towards the vicinity of another President, one we have just gotten rid of, who specialized in toxic bullshit. And I never thought I would say that.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    Anyway, I will never forget as long as I live that we weren't on that list of 92 countries.
  • FYI, the 450k today is a bit misleading...it seems Scotland didn't report a figure yesterday and today reported 53k...

    343,193 20,847 53,763 26,182
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,440

    UK R

    from case data

    image
    image

    from hospitalisation data

    image

    Tha UK R rate for case data does look to have been stubbornly flat-lining for 10 days or so.
    As it should - it only reflects the current restrictions/behaviour. Nothing has changed (too early for real vaccination effect) so it should stay the same.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164

    felix said:

    I'm finding this thread boringly one sided and partisan - is there anyone out there to help Kinabalu and None of the Above - what's happened to you. These people need help! Now! We have a serious Remain shortage. Paging! Paging! They can't all have urgent vaccine appointments surely.

    Have you ever tried to join a daisy chain in mid engagement?
    How did you know? :smiley:
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,209

    So how do we increase vacc. supply so there is genuinely more now (or soon) rather than arguing over the same pie?

    One possibility I can spot is for Sanofi to abandon their vaccine attempt (which I assume they are keeping manufacturing capacity aside for) and turn their manufacturing over to one of the other vaccines - Valneva looks the likeliest, as the French will never agree to AZN, and Pfizer has big issues concerning usability.

    Sanofi have already agreed to produce the Pfizer jab under license I believe.

    EDIT: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-27/sanofi-to-make-millions-of-biontech-pfizer-s-covid-vaccine-doses
    There's actually a lot of this going on right now, and this is another reason to get increasingly comfortable about vaccine supply going forward.

    So: Bayer has already started manufacturing on behalf of CureVac, and both Novartis and Sanofi will be making the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine. The Serum Institute of India is making both the AZN and Novavax vaccines.

    I haven't yet seen any announcements from other people producing Moderna. But I presume they're in negotiations with people.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,933
    Chris said:

    Anyway, I will never forget as long as I live that we weren't on that list of 92 countries.

    That's quite a list of exempted countries. What was the rationale behind it?
  • Just when you think the EU can't f##k up their vaccination programme any more....
  • MaxPB said:

    What is the difference between Trump's America First and the EU's vaccine policy

    Trump's America First makes more sense.
    Yes, Trump's America first didn't institute export bans to countries it relied on for imports to make those products!

    It's literally the most stupid plan.

    The EU has picked up the gun, put it against its own head and said "give us what we want or we'll pull this trigger". I don't know what they are trying to achieve.
    They say imitation is the sincerest form of flattery
  • RobD said:

    Chris said:

    Anyway, I will never forget as long as I live that we weren't on that list of 92 countries.

    That's quite a list of exempted countries. What was the rationale behind it?
    They didn't Brexit...
  • I'll take all the AZ the Frogs don't want.

    What the hell is Macron doing? I always thought the French were a nation of hypochondriacs, who were always at the Doctors getting pills for imaginary fits of the vapours. When did they become tin foil hatted conspiracy theorists?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,865

    UK R

    from case data

    image
    image

    from hospitalisation data

    image

    Tha UK R rate for case data does look to have been stubbornly flat-lining for 10 days or so.
    As it should - it only reflects the current restrictions/behaviour. Nothing has changed (too early for real vaccination effect) so it should stay the same.
    It's not going to show in case numbers immediately anyway which is how the headline figure is derived. The hospital R might tell a different story in a couple of weeks as symptomatic COVID starts to drop a bit.
  • kinabalu said:

    "Today everything suggests that it is almost ineffective for those over 65 and some say over 60."

    If this is an accurate translation of what President Macron said today about the AZ vaccine, I'm afraid it pushes him in my book towards the vicinity of another President, one we have just gotten rid of, who specialized in toxic bullshit. And I never thought I would say that.

    Should we still be trying to vax all the EU's oldsters before we finish the job in the UK?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,879

    Carnyx said:

    Fishing said:

    That's quite a gap between the fastest & slowest:

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1355189454969987080?s=20

    Doesn't Scotland have an older, fatter, unhealthier population than England, too? So it's even more serious for them than it looks that they're lagging so far behind.
    Case rates in Scotland are currently about half those in England, on the figures from PCR testing, and I think the difference is a bit larger in the ONS survey, so you would expect that the NHS is not so close to breaking point in Scotland, and the urgency to vaccinate to head off an imminent collapse of the NHS is also less.

    I'd much rather that Scotland kept up with the vaccination rates seen elsewhere in the UK though.
    Different approach - focussing on care homes and housebound, so slower to begin with.
    So should be speeding up now?

    https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/19050497.number-scottish-mass-vaccination-centres-halved-amid-confusion/
    I'm actually relieved if they don't go in for a few mass centres yet but rely more on GPs, certainly for the old - I have real concerns about public transport/taxis, and my GP was very efficient with the flu a couple of months back.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,220
    MaxPB said:

    Nigelb said:

    Jesus Christ! Are they mad?!!! What’s happened to them?
    It does lead one to ask, if they think the vaccine is ineffective (it isn't, of course), why are they so desperate to get hold if it ?
    It's completely maddening. They're undermining the global vaccination effort and muddying the waters for the vaccine that is going to be most used in the developing world.
    I don't think it will have that much effect for very long.
    We'll have real world figures for its effectiveness in mass use very soon, and they will be rather more credible than anything Macron might have to say about it.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,865
    edited January 2021
    Nigelb said:

    MaxPB said:

    Nigelb said:

    Jesus Christ! Are they mad?!!! What’s happened to them?
    It does lead one to ask, if they think the vaccine is ineffective (it isn't, of course), why are they so desperate to get hold if it ?
    It's completely maddening. They're undermining the global vaccination effort and muddying the waters for the vaccine that is going to be most used in the developing world.
    I don't think it will have that much effect for very long.
    We'll have real world figures for its effectiveness in mass use very soon, and they will be rather more credible than anything Macron might have to say about it.
    Yeah I know, but they're just giving ammunition to meme makers in Russia.

    Edit: and to say it just after their own bloody regulator approved it for all ages will just drive the conspiracy nuts.
  • AstraZeneca to hold press conference following EU approval of jab
    Vaccine manufacturer AstraZeneca is due to hold a press conference at 17:15 GMT.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,220
    rcs1000 said:

    So how do we increase vacc. supply so there is genuinely more now (or soon) rather than arguing over the same pie?

    One possibility I can spot is for Sanofi to abandon their vaccine attempt (which I assume they are keeping manufacturing capacity aside for) and turn their manufacturing over to one of the other vaccines - Valneva looks the likeliest, as the French will never agree to AZN, and Pfizer has big issues concerning usability.

    Sanofi have already agreed to produce the Pfizer jab under license I believe.

    EDIT: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-27/sanofi-to-make-millions-of-biontech-pfizer-s-covid-vaccine-doses
    There's actually a lot of this going on right now, and this is another reason to get increasingly comfortable about vaccine supply going forward.

    So: Bayer has already started manufacturing on behalf of CureVac, and both Novartis and Sanofi will be making the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine. The Serum Institute of India is making both the AZN and Novavax vaccines.

    I haven't yet seen any announcements from other people producing Moderna. But I presume they're in negotiations with people.
    Maybe - but I suspect that will be quite difficult.
    Moderna has what is for them seriously valuable IP in terms of formulating the mRNA in lipid nanoparticles for delivery, and some of that is likely to be commercial secrets rather than patentable processes. Getting them to share might take some effort.
  • AstraZeneca to hold press conference following EU approval of jab
    Vaccine manufacturer AstraZeneca is due to hold a press conference at 17:15 GMT.

    I expect there will be a really celebratory atmosphere.
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,285
    edited January 2021

    I'll take all the AZ the Frogs don't want.

    What the hell is Macron doing? I always thought the French were a nation of hypochondriacs, who were always at the Doctors getting pills for imaginary fits of the vapours. When did they become tin foil hatted conspiracy theorists?

    They are not keen on actual medicine though: most pharmacies in France stock a wide range of what they call homéopathie, though many of them are in fact herbal remedies.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,028

    Carnyx said:

    Fishing said:

    That's quite a gap between the fastest & slowest:

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1355189454969987080?s=20

    Doesn't Scotland have an older, fatter, unhealthier population than England, too? So it's even more serious for them than it looks that they're lagging so far behind.
    Case rates in Scotland are currently about half those in England, on the figures from PCR testing, and I think the difference is a bit larger in the ONS survey, so you would expect that the NHS is not so close to breaking point in Scotland, and the urgency to vaccinate to head off an imminent collapse of the NHS is also less.

    I'd much rather that Scotland kept up with the vaccination rates seen elsewhere in the UK though.
    Different approach - focussing on care homes and housebound, so slower to begin with.
    So should be speeding up now?

    https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/19050497.number-scottish-mass-vaccination-centres-halved-amid-confusion/
    I fear this will be the same excuse in 2 weeks time - when they’re still behind.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,933

    AstraZeneca to hold press conference following EU approval of jab
    Vaccine manufacturer AstraZeneca is due to hold a press conference at 17:15 GMT.

    "Remember, smile"
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,220
    edited January 2021

    Nigelb said:

    So how do we increase vacc. supply so there is genuinely more now (or soon) rather than arguing over the same pie?

    One possibility I can spot is for Sanofi to abandon their vaccine attempt (which I assume they are keeping manufacturing capacity aside for) and turn their manufacturing over to one of the other vaccines - Valneva looks the likeliest, as the French will never agree to AZN, and Pfizer has big issues concerning usability.

    The Novavax vaccine is probably the most similar to the GSK/Sanofi effort.
    As Gallowgate has shown, it seems they've partnered with Pfizer - I am not entirely sure it was the best partner vaccine-wise, but as Pfizer are doing this as a profit making exercise, it was possibly the most attractive partner commercially.
    They are a big vaccines company - they might do both now the Novavax results are out.
    It's clearly possible, as the Serum Institute are producing it.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,752
    Floater said:
    That will do wonders for the campaign for a United Ireland...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,086
    edited January 2021
    When i said earlier I thought it was interesting that Macron hadn't said anything about this dispute, then he opens his mouth and it is the equivalent of doing a maasive dump on the table.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,220

    BBC:

    "Arrivals into Birmingham Airport included 21-year-old student Emma Rhodes, who had been on a two-week holiday and was due to arrive back on Friday.

    Asked about criticism of those who had chosen to travel abroad for non-business trips, she said: "I had personal reasons why I went, I needed some 'me' time."

    Lock her up. Numpty.

    So actually, 'me me me time'.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,357

    Carnyx said:

    Fishing said:

    That's quite a gap between the fastest & slowest:

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1355189454969987080?s=20

    Doesn't Scotland have an older, fatter, unhealthier population than England, too? So it's even more serious for them than it looks that they're lagging so far behind.
    Case rates in Scotland are currently about half those in England, on the figures from PCR testing, and I think the difference is a bit larger in the ONS survey, so you would expect that the NHS is not so close to breaking point in Scotland, and the urgency to vaccinate to head off an imminent collapse of the NHS is also less.

    I'd much rather that Scotland kept up with the vaccination rates seen elsewhere in the UK though.
    Different approach - focussing on care homes and housebound, so slower to begin with.
    So should be speeding up now?

    https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/19050497.number-scottish-mass-vaccination-centres-halved-amid-confusion/
    The difference between the parts of the UK is fairly minor. The important bit is that the trajectories are a tight bundle.

    image

    So the spread of when they arrive at the same level of vaccination is just a few days.
  • In other vaccine news, a Russian friend of my told me today that he was vaccinated this week in Moscow: they have big vaccination centres that you can just walk in to and get vaccinated as they are pretty empty. It seems the Russians are generally very sceptical of the vaccine they have.
    Oh and the friend is in his early thirties.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,209

    felix said:

    I'm finding this thread boringly one sided and partisan - is there anyone out there to help Kinabalu and None of the Above - what's happened to you. These people need help! Now! We have a serious Remain shortage. Paging! Paging! They can't all have urgent vaccine appointments surely.

    This isn't about Leave or Remain. It is about an organisation behaving like an arse. It could just as easily be a single country. That is why so many Remain supporters are amongst the most critical.
    I agree that it isn't.
    Remainer does not = blind support for the EU.
    That's a smear.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,086
    edited January 2021
    Chris said:

    BBC:

    "Arrivals into Birmingham Airport included 21-year-old student Emma Rhodes, who had been on a two-week holiday and was due to arrive back on Friday.

    Asked about criticism of those who had chosen to travel abroad for non-business trips, she said: "I had personal reasons why I went, I needed some 'me' time."

    Lock her up. Numpty.

    I would guess her 'me' time generally accounts for somewhere close to 24 hours of every day.
    Or she has been yachting...either way 10k fine...
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,752
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Fishing said:

    That's quite a gap between the fastest & slowest:

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1355189454969987080?s=20

    Doesn't Scotland have an older, fatter, unhealthier population than England, too? So it's even more serious for them than it looks that they're lagging so far behind.
    Case rates in Scotland are currently about half those in England, on the figures from PCR testing, and I think the difference is a bit larger in the ONS survey, so you would expect that the NHS is not so close to breaking point in Scotland, and the urgency to vaccinate to head off an imminent collapse of the NHS is also less.

    I'd much rather that Scotland kept up with the vaccination rates seen elsewhere in the UK though.
    Different approach - focussing on care homes and housebound, so slower to begin with.
    So should be speeding up now?

    https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/19050497.number-scottish-mass-vaccination-centres-halved-amid-confusion/
    I'm actually relieved if they don't go in for a few mass centres yet but rely more on GPs, certainly for the old - I have real concerns about public transport/taxis, and my GP was very efficient with the flu a couple of months back.
    Fair point. Mass centres not much use to rural Scotland. All the same, not much sign of a pick-up up here so far, from what I can see.

    And the optics over the release of data surprisingly maladroit.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    edited January 2021

    Carnyx said:

    Fishing said:

    That's quite a gap between the fastest & slowest:

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1355189454969987080?s=20

    Doesn't Scotland have an older, fatter, unhealthier population than England, too? So it's even more serious for them than it looks that they're lagging so far behind.
    Case rates in Scotland are currently about half those in England, on the figures from PCR testing, and I think the difference is a bit larger in the ONS survey, so you would expect that the NHS is not so close to breaking point in Scotland, and the urgency to vaccinate to head off an imminent collapse of the NHS is also less.

    I'd much rather that Scotland kept up with the vaccination rates seen elsewhere in the UK though.
    Different approach - focussing on care homes and housebound, so slower to begin with.
    So should be speeding up now?

    https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/19050497.number-scottish-mass-vaccination-centres-halved-amid-confusion/
    I fear this will be the same excuse in 2 weeks time - when they’re still behind.
    Haven't they found a way to blame Westminster yet? Most unlike them.

    Anyway, if Scotland can now vaccinate the wider population at about the same rate as the rest of the UK then, yes, they would still end up being a bit behind, but in proportionate terms the difference will become progressively less acute in proportionate terms, and less relevant. If you're well adrift on lancing people in their seventies, that's a bit of a headache. At the other end of the program, when we're all dealing with low risk under 40s, not so much.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    Build a wall around France....they are going to have this plague forever with that sort of attitude from their leader...
    If he really said that the guy is a fucking muppet. He's got enough issues with vaccine sceptism as it is. The worry is that there are so many anti-vaxxers in France that Macron might go completely mental to try and outflank the Front National. Might be good for his re-election chances but terrible for the French people.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,477
    Floater said:
    Guido always had an ugly design (it was kind of their trademark to look like an early 2000's blogspot I thought), but their new design is still ugly, but now also bland and confusing. I presume this horrorshow is designed to maximise clicks to commercial sponsors, but surely of all sites Guido could commercialise something with a bit more panache.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,770

    Chris said:

    BBC:

    "Arrivals into Birmingham Airport included 21-year-old student Emma Rhodes, who had been on a two-week holiday and was due to arrive back on Friday.

    Asked about criticism of those who had chosen to travel abroad for non-business trips, she said: "I had personal reasons why I went, I needed some 'me' time."

    Lock her up. Numpty.

    I would guess her 'me' time generally accounts for somewhere close to 24 hours of every day.
    Or she has been yachting...either way 10k fine...
    Yachting adventures. I wonder why so few do that?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,086
    edited January 2021
    All that is missing from the EU commissions response it to blame the fact the EU isn't integrated enough and there must be a review to form closer bond between the nations....overseen by a new EU wide bidy.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,209
    edited January 2021
    felix said:

    I'm finding this thread boringly one sided and partisan - is there anyone out there to help Kinabalu and None of the Above - what's happened to you. These people need help! Now! We have a serious Remain shortage. Paging! Paging! They can't all have urgent vaccine appointments surely.

    YOU are a Remainer, Felix. A soft one like me. You voted Remain but wanted Leave implemented with no second referendum nonsense. You and Eye are, in this regard, la meme chose.
This discussion has been closed.