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In spite of the latest EU dealings those who think Brexit was wrong still have clear 8% lead with Yo

SystemSystem Posts: 12,168
edited January 2021 in General
imageIn spite of the latest EU dealings those who think Brexit was wrong still have clear 8% lead with YouGov – politicalbetting.com

Even though the UK is now fully out of the EU there’s been almost no movement in YouGov’s Brexit tracker which has been asked at least twice a month since 2016.

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Comments

  • eekeek Posts: 28,397
    First as the UK was to purchase vaccines (thank God).
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,083
    edited January 2021
    On polling, at the moment, I don't think most people are taking much notice beyond Europe are demanding their vaccine shipments of AZN.

    We haven't got to a stage of your Gran / Mum can't have their vaccine because the EU have stopped deliveries out of EU factories or have had UK made ones exported.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    edited January 2021
    eek said:

    First as the UK was to purchase vaccines (thank God).

    5th still way ahead of the EU in the queue.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Ask again now
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,692
    rcs1000 said:

    I was wrong: it appears the EU is being stupid enough to actually restrict exports.

    https://twitter.com/DaveKeating/status/1355172056543989761
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    rcs1000 said:

    I was wrong: it appears the EU is being stupid enough to actually restrict exports.

    They're trying to target elderly vulnerable people in the UK and deny them a 2nd Pfizer jab, because they were more likely to vote for Brexit.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,692
    EMA authorises AZ vaccine for all over 18-year-olds.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,083
    edited January 2021
    The EU confirms it is introducing export controls on coronavirus vaccines made in the bloc, amid a row about shortfalls in delivery. Individual member states will decide whether to allow exports of vaccines produced in their territory.

    ---

    I love the way the EU have dumped this decision on each country to look bad, but it is clear who is doing the threatening.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    How long before even more problems with customs at the border....
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    That sound you hear is that of the poll above being ripped up....
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    rcs1000 said:

    I was wrong: it appears the EU is being stupid enough to actually restrict exports.

    https://twitter.com/DaveKeating/status/1355172056543989761
    Not targeting any particular country - and certainly not targeting the one and only European state West of bloody Kaliningrad not included on the exemption list, oh no...

    This looks more and more like a plan to try to rally the 27 by picking a fight with the Evil Brits.
  • rcs1000 said:

    I was wrong: it appears the EU is being stupid enough to actually restrict exports.

    https://twitter.com/DaveKeating/status/1355172056543989761
    I presume Israel aren't on the exemption list? I wouldn't want to f##k with their vaccine supplies.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126
    That's the the thing they definitely wont use.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,533
    Floater said:
    Interesting - they've taken a less cautioys view than the German authority.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Floater said:
    COVID-19 Vaccine AstraZeneca is given as two injections into the arm, the second between 4 to 12 weeks after the first.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,083
    edited January 2021
    Floater said:

    That sound you hear is that of the poll above being ripped up....

    Any campaign for re-join, the remain out side will just have a bus with "when it came to the crunch the EU were happy to throw your Granny under this" written on the side.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    So Kimbalu - what do you have to say now?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Floater said:

    Ask again now

    The headlines started after this polling was completed - it will be interesting to see whether they've had any impact. Given "Leave/Remain" is very much tied up with identity, it might be less than expected.
  • On topic, I think this poll might prove to have been taken at peak remain.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,397

    rcs1000 said:

    I was wrong: it appears the EU is being stupid enough to actually restrict exports.

    They're trying to target elderly vulnerable people in the UK and deny them a 2nd Pfizer jab, because they were more likely to vote for Brexit.
    and that's when it's going to get really interesting - as we need the next set of Pfizer vaccines for those second jabs.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126
    rcs1000 said:

    I was wrong: it appears the EU is being stupid enough to actually restrict exports.

    Their anger I get, but the logic of some their public pronouncements, which they appear to believe, has at best been odd at times.

    And raising the emotional tone and making wild accusations is ready not on, without then blaming others for their own choices.

    Have they learned nothing from Brexit? Did they not rightly spend all that time criticising these kinds of self defeating tactics scapegoating others?

    Are they unable to see how they are behaving in a way theyd condemn in others?
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,883

    On topic, I think this poll might prove to have been taken at peak remain.

    you hope...
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Chris said:

    The EU confirms it is introducing export controls on coronavirus vaccines made in the bloc, amid a row about shortfalls in delivery. Individual member states will decide whether to allow exports of vaccines produced in their territory.

    ---

    I love the way the EU have dumped this decision on each country to look bad, but it is clear who is doing the threatening.

    So just to clarify - the EU is really saying that contracts for the delivery of vaccine have to be honoured, but only when the delivery is to the EU?????????
    Sounds about right.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,397

    Are the EU now saying that Pfizer has broken its contract? Because otherwise, the only exports they'd restrict would be of surplus Belgium-produced AZ vaccines, which unfortunately don't exist. 'Completely lost the plot' is the phrase which comes to mind.

    Haven't Pfizer also got production issues due to a temporary shortfall to allow more scaling up.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,291

    rcs1000 said:

    I was wrong: it appears the EU is being stupid enough to actually restrict exports.

    https://twitter.com/DaveKeating/status/1355172056543989761
    Gosh it's getting serious.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,598

    Floater said:

    That sound you hear is that of the poll above being ripped up....

    Any campaign for re-join, the remain out side will just have a bus with "when it came to the crunch the EU were happy to throw your Granny under this" written on the side.
    Oof!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,104
    edited January 2021
    Yet 52% of voters would still vote to stay out now, only 48% to rejoin the EU ie zero change from the referendum result in 2016 now No Deal has been avoided.

    The 48% who think Brexit was wrong all want to rejoin but the 52% Leave majority still want to give Brexit a chance

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1347501867253854210?s=20
  • On topic, I think this poll might prove to have been taken at peak remain.

    you hope...
    Firmly predict. Bookmark the comment.
  • If the EU manages to dick about with US vaccine supplies, events are going to develop not necessarily to its advantage.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,598
    I don't now about Covid, anybody got a jab that is 95% effective against Stoopid?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,083
    edited January 2021
    Crickey they are going to f##k with the US....now that's brave. Uncle Joe might not be so pro-European in a few weeks if they do this.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    GIN1138 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I was wrong: it appears the EU is being stupid enough to actually restrict exports.

    https://twitter.com/DaveKeating/status/1355172056543989761
    Gosh it's getting serious.
    To think when I originally posted what the Germans were proposing just a few days ago there were howls from people who said this would never happen
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    I don't now about Covid, anybody got a jab that is 95% effective against Stoopid?

    Leaving the EU?

    ** innocent face***
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126
    I do love the repetition of simple phrases like 'contracts are binding' when the meaning of the contract is disputed.

    Its giving me Brexit is Brexit flashbacks, a stock phrase that doesnt really mean anything in practice.

    I mean, if a meteor strike took out all AZ sites they couldn't deliver but would be covered, so there are circumstances where delivery is accepted might fail. This is an argument over if that is now the case under the contract, not an argument that contracts are binding or not.
  • Crickey they are going to f##k with the US....now that's brave. Uncle Joe might not be so pro-European in a few weeks if they do this.

    Is the US importing any vaccines manufactured in the EU?
  • eekeek Posts: 28,397
    edited January 2021
    HYUFD said:

    Yet 52% of voters would still vote to stay out now, only 48% to rejoin the EU

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1347501867253854210?s=20

    Excluding 12% don't knows who could go either way.

    Which means it could be 60-40% leave or 52-48% remain.
  • eek said:

    Are the EU now saying that Pfizer has broken its contract? Because otherwise, the only exports they'd restrict would be of surplus Belgium-produced AZ vaccines, which unfortunately don't exist. 'Completely lost the plot' is the phrase which comes to mind.

    Haven't Pfizer also got production issues due to a temporary shortfall to allow more scaling up.
    Yes, but they don't seem to be blaming Pfizer for that. I wonder why not...
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    eek said:

    Are the EU now saying that Pfizer has broken its contract? Because otherwise, the only exports they'd restrict would be of surplus Belgium-produced AZ vaccines, which unfortunately don't exist. 'Completely lost the plot' is the phrase which comes to mind.

    Haven't Pfizer also got production issues due to a temporary shortfall to allow more scaling up.
    Scaling up caused by the EU belatedly increasing their order.....
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,477

    rcs1000 said:

    I was wrong: it appears the EU is being stupid enough to actually restrict exports.

    https://twitter.com/DaveKeating/status/1355172056543989761
    Not targeting any particular country - and certainly not targeting the one and only European state West of bloody Kaliningrad not included on the exemption list, oh no...

    This looks more and more like a plan to try to rally the 27 by picking a fight with the Evil Brits.
    I think that's what it must be seen as - and purely in that regard, it's had some success. Instead of discussing what a fuck up the EU has made of this, the discussion is about the greedy Brits stealing all the vaccines.

    This has been at the expense of leaving Remaineristas in the UK (particularly in Scotland it must be said) very high and dry, but if that's being considered at all, I think it's being seen as a very small price to pay.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Honest question - how much of this is spite because we left?
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yet 52% of voters would still vote to stay out now, only 48% to rejoin the EU

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1347501867253854210?s=20

    Excluding 12% don't knows who could go either way.

    Which means it could be 60-40% leave or 52-48% remain.
    Events of the last few days make option B a lot less likely wouldn't you say?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,291

    Crickey they are going to f##k with the US....now that's brave. Uncle Joe might not be so pro-European in a few weeks if they do this.

    You can imagine how Donald would have reacted...
  • eek said:

    Are the EU now saying that Pfizer has broken its contract? Because otherwise, the only exports they'd restrict would be of surplus Belgium-produced AZ vaccines, which unfortunately don't exist. 'Completely lost the plot' is the phrase which comes to mind.

    Haven't Pfizer also got production issues due to a temporary shortfall to allow more scaling up.
    Yes, but they don't seem to be blaming Pfizer for that. I wonder why not...
    They can just block Pfizer from supplying us. Insisting that AZ send its UK made supply is proving trickier.
  • Floater said:

    Honest question - how much of this is spite because we left?

    Its green eyed jealousy because we're doing better than them.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,083
    edited January 2021
    I seemed to remember Max saying that some base ingredients for the Pfizer vaccine come from the UK...this could get very messy very quickly.
  • EMA approve AZN for all over 18s
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126
    Chris said:

    The EU confirms it is introducing export controls on coronavirus vaccines made in the bloc, amid a row about shortfalls in delivery. Individual member states will decide whether to allow exports of vaccines produced in their territory.

    ---

    I love the way the EU have dumped this decision on each country to look bad, but it is clear who is doing the threatening.

    So just to clarify - the EU is really saying that contracts for the delivery of vaccine have to be honoured, but only when the delivery is to the EU?????????
    They are trying to pretend only they have experienced under delivery so that a company and an outside country can blamed for an 'unfair' situation.

    That is not true so it is a very cynical move. Smug utterances in future around fair play will get laughed out of the room, they've sacrificed integrity on the altar of populism and denial of responsibility.

    That's wrong when others do it and it's wrong when the EU do it.
  • I remember fondly the sincerity with which Boris haters predicted he'd fuck up vaccine procurement and then delivery.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,598
    Floater said:

    Honest question - how much of this is spite because we left?

    They seem very frustrated that we are not the sick man of Europe they thought was inevitable.

    They had a limo at Brussels airport waiting for us to crawl back for membership and everything....
  • eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yet 52% of voters would still vote to stay out now, only 48% to rejoin the EU

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1347501867253854210?s=20

    Excluding 12% don't knows who could go either way.

    Which means it could be 60-40% leave or 52-48% remain.
    Before this EU debacle
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited January 2021
    That can only be Pfizer, surely?

    What is the rationale for the measure?

    The objective of this measure is to ensure timely access to COVID-19 vaccines for all EU citizens and to tackle the current lack of transparency of vaccine exports outside the EU.


    https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/qanda_21_308

    Perhaps the UK should ask Pfizer to switch sourcing to the US? And send the raw materials.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    Floater said:

    Honest question - how much of this is spite because we left?

    They seem very frustrated that we are not the sick man of Europe they thought was inevitable.

    They had a limo at Brussels airport waiting for us to crawl back for membership and everything....
    Yeah but May got the boot.....
  • The key question is whether there are enough second Pfizer doses already in the U.K. to match up with what’s been injected or another source that can compensate (e.g. US sites). If so, then presumably our Government can sit back, say nothing, and let the EU have a mardy.
  • Floater said:

    Honest question - how much of this is spite because we left?

    Imo, very little directly as spite but it is related and cynical. It is a show for internal EU audiences, and yes the meme of the UK being the bad guy because of the Brexit negotiations fits nicely into their little political pantomime. It is not aimed at us, there wont be a vaccine export ban and AZ will continue to supply as they planned to but "something has been seen to be done" by their voters. The reputational hit the EU takes in UK political opinion is collateral damage, not the target.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,083
    edited January 2021

    The key question is whether there are enough second Pfizer doses already in the U.K. to match up with what’s been injected or another source that can compensate (e.g. US sites). If so, then presumably our Government can sit back, say nothing, and let the EU have a mardy.

    I presume from next week they won't be giving anybody Pfizer just to be on the safe side. Not great for getting the numbers up to 500k / day and hitting the mid Feb target.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,477
    MaxPB said:

    EMA authorises AZ vaccine for all over 18-year-olds.

    As expected. Just how much succour has the German regulator, newspaper and health ministry given to anti-vaxxers over the last few days.

    This is quite possibly the most unedifying episode in the EU's history.
    To be fair, German history. And clearly there it's up against stiffer competition.
  • The EU's policy appears to be to kill Brits.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
  • The key question is whether there are enough second Pfizer doses already in the U.K. to match up with what’s been injected or another source that can compensate (e.g. US sites). If so, then presumably our Government can sit back, say nothing, and let the EU have a mardy.

    I presume from next week they won't be giving anybody Pfizer just to be on the safe side. Not great for getting the numbers up to 500k / day and hitting the mid Feb target.
    Yes, you have to guess contingency plans have been put into effect over the last week. The team planning our vaccine rollout are demonstrably not idiots
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126
    Pulpstar said:

    I have never, ever ever in my life come across a situation where a customer has demanded that a supplier publish a contract with another customer.
    You'd be laughed out of town if you demanded this in the commercial world. Appalling behaviour from UVDL. It's up to the UK Gov't and Astra whether or not they want our contract made public (And why should either party want to have it public), nothing at all to do with the EU.

    Good rule of thumb on reasonableness - how would Party A react if Party B tried the same thing?

    That is, would the EU think their behaviour was reasonable if the UK had done the same thing?

    Everyone on planet Earth can answer that question, even if they are very pro-EU.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,865

    I seemed to remember Max saying that some base ingredients for the Pfizer vaccine come from the UK...this could get very messy very quickly.

    If they actually do this the the government has no choice but to take it up with Pfizer and ask to which site they should ask the exports to be redirected to ensure timely delivery of UK and other non-EU countries vaccine supplies.
  • rcs1000 said:

    I was wrong: it appears the EU is being stupid enough to actually restrict exports.

    It is the notification system, not the ban.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,233
    Hmmm.

    Ceuta etc on that exempt list. Gibraltar not. Reunion etc not.

    Is that because the French treat overseas territories as part of France itself?

    Also South Americas & North Americas and Oz / NZ / India not exempt.

    What about Canaries, Azores, Greenland?
  • The thing is all this behaviour by the EU is giving Boris so much political cover over a) not hitting vaccine target and b) issues with Brexit.

    He can just point now and say look at that, its like the mafia, they are happy for your Gran to die rather than admit a balls up, do you serious want to be in that club (*albeit it said in more diplomatic terms) ?
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547
    edited January 2021
    Chris said:
    It would be hilarious is we’d just don’t a secret side deal with the Swiss or Norwegians and merrily redirected our imports from there.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,598

    I seemed to remember Max saying that some base ingredients for the Pfizer vaccine come from the UK...this could get very messy very quickly.

    Boris can announce from his winter palace on Mount High Ground that we will not block those base ingredients.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126

    Floater said:
    Interesting - they've taken a less cautioys view than the German authority.
    For those thinking that urgent context plays a role in the level of caution by regulators, while Germany is not having a great time of things right now, there are places in the wider EU with a much worse time of it, whose need is greater. Consequences of not granting for over 65s in those places is presumably greater.
  • MaxPB said:

    Honestly, I'm genuinely quite shocked that they've gone down the export ban route. What pharmaceutical company will want to operate under these conditions in the future?

    This is the kind of stuff I expect from China, Russia, India or Trump's USA. They aren't in great company.

    No wonder the EU were happy to get into bed with China, despite them being responsible for us all being locked in our houses and trashing the Western economies...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126
    Floater said:
    It's almost like there isn't a conspiracy by AZ and the UK against the EU, but that vaccine developers - who though regretting the delays are probably feeling hard done by after an incredible year of progress - are all experiencing problems given the process and how many need their supplies urgently.

    But like online trolls, the EU prefers the conspiracy angle.
  • FossFoss Posts: 1,019

    The key question is whether there are enough second Pfizer doses already in the U.K. to match up with what’s been injected or another source that can compensate (e.g. US sites). If so, then presumably our Government can sit back, say nothing, and let the EU have a mardy.

    Should they approve it, I wonder if the Americans would be willing to trade AZ for Pfizer so we can do the second jabs with like for like?
  • MaxPB said:

    I seemed to remember Max saying that some base ingredients for the Pfizer vaccine come from the UK...this could get very messy very quickly.

    If they actually do this the the government has no choice but to take it up with Pfizer and ask to which site they should ask the exports to be redirected to ensure timely delivery of UK and other non-EU countries vaccine supplies.
    Is it really that straightforward? They need chemicals made here to produce it? They can’t be that stupid..:. can they?
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    The thing is all this behaviour by the EU is giving Boris so much political cover over a) not hitting vaccine target and b) issues with Brexit.

    He can just point now and say look at that, its like the mafia, they are happy for your Gran to die rather than admit a balls up, do you serious want to be in that club (*albeit it said in more diplomatic terms) ?

    If CCHQ had been asked to write the script, they could not have come up with something more perfect.

    (Unfortunately for those of us who would like to be rid of Boris).
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126

    Now all that moaning about one clause in the Internal Market Bill, that if the EU starting being twats we could do something about it and we were all told that it is totally illegal in international law and the EU would never behave like that.

    I maintain the IM Bill move was an unnecessarily risky bluff and should not have been done, but the idea the EU would not react in selfish, self defeating fashion has certainly been debunked.
  • MaxPB said:

    I seemed to remember Max saying that some base ingredients for the Pfizer vaccine come from the UK...this could get very messy very quickly.

    If they actually do this the the government has no choice but to take it up with Pfizer and ask to which site they should ask the exports to be redirected to ensure timely delivery of UK and other non-EU countries vaccine supplies.
    Surely the EU are desperate for supplies coming from the UK more than the UK is desperate for supplies coming from the EU?

    If the UK reciprocated by saying the UK's AZN facilities can't export to the EU in the future until UK and Covax contracts are honoured then how would that help the EU?

    All seems like madness because they can't accept the screwed up.
  • Who would have thought Trump has been succeeded by the EU and UVDL
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,599
    So they’re letting Israel off. UK, USA, UAE and a few small Asian countries though, they are screwed.

    Eagerly awaiting Joe Biden’s response...
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,355

    I seemed to remember Max saying that some base ingredients for the Pfizer vaccine come from the UK...this could get very messy very quickly.

    Boris can announce from his winter palace on Mount High Ground that we will not block those base ingredients.
    It is my hope that he does. He should announce

    - No plans to block export of vaccine
    - No plans to block export of materials for production of vaccine.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126

    I remember fondly the sincerity with which Boris haters predicted he'd fuck up vaccine procurement and then delivery.

    Predicting Boris will mess things up is not, in general terms, unreasonable, given the views of many on his record. Not altering position if he does not end up doing so is a different matter.
This discussion has been closed.