politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Wear and tear. The fate of Dominic Cummings
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Wear and tear. The fate of Dominic Cummings
Was just watching a cookery show on Channel 4 (it’s not all politics you know) and the presenters made two jokes about Dominic Cummings in the space of five minutes. To those calling this a bubble issue, it never was but it really isn’t now.
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Dominic Raab 7/2
Grant Shapps 7/2
Boris Johnson 4/1
Robert Jenrick 5/1
Alok Sharma 11/2
George Eustice 8/1
Michael Gove 8/1
Gavin Williamson 12/1
Oliver Dowden 12/1
Amanda Milling 14/1
Matthew Hancock 16/1
Priti Patel 16/1
Rishi Sunak 40/1
https://www.conservativehome.com/parliament/2020/05/rolling-list-of-conservative-mps-whove-called-on-cummings-to-go.html
If the 'castle' visit is true, or there's anything similar not yet reported, then he's probably 'being resigned' this afternoon. If it's simply the Durham trip then he'll be okay, as keeping him means an awful lot to the PM.
Boris Johnson 7/2
Dominic Raab 4/1
Grant Shapps 9/2
Alok Sharma 11/2
Robert Jenrick 11/2
Michael Gove 6/1
George Eustice 10/1
Gavin Williamson 12/1
Oliver Dowden 12/1
Amanda Milling 14/1
Matthew Hancock 16/1
Priti Patel 16/1
Rishi Sunak 40/1
But ...
... do we want the government, or government in general **, to claim moral authority ?
IMO moral authority needs to be earned and I see no evidence that this government, previous governments or government in general has done so.
** by government in general I refer to the alphabet soup of governing institutions.
It does show that the way the partisans close ranks regardless of what the issue is or level of guilt when feeling threatened isn't just unique to the Labour partisans, many of whom we saw doggedly dig in for Corbyn over antisemitism. On the grounds that showing weakness would be dangerous for them.
We're watching the same thing with loads of Tory activists. The brighter ones are aghast because they know the level of damage that can be sustained when you too obviously hold the people in contempt.
And too many people are unable to see anything other than through the prism of Brexit. The Lib Dems learned to their cost last December that most people aren't, in fact, obsessive about Brexit. Those who are, though, have to see everything in terms of it, which is why you're getting people insisting that no, all this is because of Remainers or Brexit or something other than an unelected arrogant SpAd smashing quarantine for himself and his family while the little people were required to struggle through.
And it's cut through. I've kept hearing people who've previously been saying "I've been saying the Government are trying to get through a very difficult time; we should give them our support" come out with outright rants about "This Cummings person" and "One rule for us, another for them" and "Surely he's got to go?"
Personally, I think if he doesn't go today or tomorrow morning by the latest, I want the Tories to keep him on. Let them own it. I've seen Lib Dems convinced that the tuition fees thing will have died down long before the 2015 election, Labourites certain that Corbyn's latest misstep won't be held against them, and I remember Back to Basics with the Tories in the Nineties. All next week's chip papers, right?
People remember the stench of hypocrisy. They remember the strong narratives. Associate Cummings with this and you've got a great story on any deaths or cockups over handling the pandemic. And if you think that the pandemic will be forgotten soon, you're even more overoptimistic than any of those Lib Dems about tuition fees or Labourites about antisemitism.
The instinct when tribalists are under pressure is to fall back to the Millwall Defence: "Fuck off, I'm Millwall, what can you do about it?" Great for signalling loyalty to the in-group and making yourself feel better. Not so good when you've got to convince millions outside the in-group that you speak for them and represent them.
Sunak also potentially has enough political capital in the bank to tell Johnson to *** off if he thinks he's accepting that commission.
https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1264523436459728896?s=20
I can see one or the other but not both unless you think the lives lost will be due to the damage to the economy, which is likely to happen anyway.
What did Boris know? And when did he know it?
1. If my wife caught this I would consider myself absolutely nailed on to get it. We do not maintain social distancing, not even in lockdown. Sometimes we get very close indeed. Spreading in families is, unsurprisingly, the most common method of transmission. Of course he considered, correctly, that there was a high probability that he would get it too.
2. Pure speculation. Are you seriously saying that the guidance should not have provided for exceptional steps being taken by a parent charged with looking after a child? I mean, really?
3. Just maybe Boris had other things to worry about. Like being ill, having a child, running the country, trying to give some sort of direction to a fairly aimless Cabinet, that sort of thing.
4. Cummings has not provided any of the guidance or moralising to the public. He will not do so in the future either. And, subject to a possible second wave, most of this is going to be relaxation measures anyway. It's not great but this is being massively oversold.
Don't get me wrong. I really don't like the one rule for them and one for us aspect of this. I don't much care for the arrogance. If he has lied or had others lie on his behalf he should probably go. But this is a twitter storm at its maddest right now.
Boris has to weigh up his utility in delivering the program he wants to deliver notwithstanding the virus against the embarrassment. He should do so coolly.
I shall now return to not commenting on this.
As for the rest of your post, couldn't agree more.
It's not 'just' a twitter bubble storm. That's a defence mechanism kicking in as part of your avoidance tactics.
It's grim. It's crap and Cummings should go. Everyone I know is incensed about it.
https://mobile.twitter.com/AndyT09697678/status/1264508605333745665/photo/1
I wonder if anyone in government is prepared to call for it openly, meaning they'd have to resign if Cummings wasn't fired?
But if you want Boris to become a great PM then you should be hoping Cummings will be fired, for good.
Nobody can travel to a second home, except if you or your wife actually catches coronavirus, in which case you can travel to your second home.
Because I don't remember that level of detail, especially the part authorising Londoners to bring corona up the motorway
Has been sheer delight reading the comments this morning.
Cummings is the effective PM, so *if* he goes, it will be a significant hit to the government.
No independent observer thinks Boris has the focus or stamina to actually lead the country. He will be mortally wounded by a Cummings ouster, hence the desperation to keep him so far.
The real news of course is that Cummings-Vallance, either with Boris’s conscious or unconscious approval - ignored the mounting evidence from abroad and dissent from others on NERVTAG or SAGE to prevent an early lockdown.
Until public opinion forced them to U-turn, by which time, sadly, tens of thousands of deaths were unavoidable.
The government accidentally let many, mostly elderly, people suffocate to death.
Boris and the government know this of course which is why they come across as so deflated and twitchy.
Meanwhile, Brexit policy remains unchanged. The government assumes we won’t notice the sclerotic recovery from COVID caused by the retreat of investment from export industries.
Of the three great trading blocs with whom one looks to do business, China is looking politically less viable, we are committed to mutual destruction in our relations with the EU, and Trump/US will be looking at us like meat on a platter.
The global institutions that a services-focused entity with free trade aspirations needs to underpin global trade flows also look to be in permanent decline.
Interesting to read Baker this morning confess that he and the hardliners were hoodwinked into accepting a trade border between Northern Ireland and Great Britain.
What if we accept Dom has broken the rules repeatedly and egregiously.
It's worth asking why. From what we know, Dom appears to have been in favour of a herd immunity strategy - he is also alleged to be either a psychopath or a sociopath depending on who you talk to (lots of top people in business are).
What if privately Dom has been in favour of the herd immunity strategy all along because he believes that some deaths are a price worth paying either to achieve herd immunity or because he has seen figures that demonstrate the trade off between deaths from covid 19 vs keeping the economy ticking over mean the lockdown sums don't add up.
Add these two possibilities together and what you probably have is a man who doesn't give two hoots about the lockdown and thinks it's actively harmful, but who went along with it because it wasn't politically viable to achieve herd immunity.
Now let's imagine Dom is fired and starts giving interviews all week about how stupid the government's lockdown strategy is, how weak Boris is when faced with bad headlines, and how devastating the government policy will be on all our lives.
He will certainly be getting more airtime than Lord Sumption.
If this is indeed the case, I imagine Boris will realise it is better to have a man like that inside the tent pissing out than outside the tent pissing in.
I think Teflon Dom will survive this. But if he does get fired, it could be a very interesting week.
I think that means he has to go.
Johnson's position is more difficult in that there is certainly a risk that Cummings HAS told him the full story. That's the impression the defence is giving (i.e. if Johnson didn;t know, they just should've said "Dominic made a dreadful mistake but the PM has given him a dressing down and forgiven him". It's incredibly dangerous if Johnson knew.
The killer is the people out there saying "My parent died alone because I obeyed the rules. You did not." Very hard to argue your way round that one.
ETA since I wrote that, the headline on WATO has just included a clip of a woman saying "What was the point of the sacrifice? What was the point of the miserable lonely death my father died?"
It highlights perfectly how Tories view the public, they think they are just sheep to be ordered about whilst they are the elite who can do what they want , not a good look.
ETA since I wrote that, the headline on WATO has just included a clip of a woman saying "What was the point of the sacrifice? What was the point of the miserable lonely death my father died?"
Devastating.
I'm all for kicking the tories but not when it's rather misplaced.
https://www.sltrib.com/news/2020/05/23/your-guide-how/
There's also a large extent to which it harms your future job prospects if you publicly stab your ex-employer repeatedly in the back the second you're out of there. Makes people think twice.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/23/oxford-university-covid-19-vaccine-trial-has-50-per-cent-chance/
And the 80-seat majority will be of interest only to psephologists.
It is of course too early to place Boris in the PM rankings.
What does seem clear is that he is the most callow PM of the modern age. You have to go back before living memory I assume to find someone with his general lack of fitness for office.
Look, Im really sorry I got caught, now will you lot bugger off, whoever you are, Ive got far more important things to do and missing my weekly trip to the NE for this.
On the subject of the virus, if you did care to look back you will see that I repeatedly warned about the dangers of this potential pandemic. Indeed I was ahead of my doppelgänger Eadric.
Which is why the key part of the Cummings story is not the travelling about but the travelling about while infected.
So your views are irrelevant because you’re wrong.
Now back to being a good Muslim for the day.
If so he should go.
I was willing yesterday to give the benefit of the doubt if it was for the welfare of a three year old. As a father of a three year old myself their safety must always come first.
However multiple trips without reasonable reasons is simply inexcusable if true.
I hope that's clear enough.
I’m still giving it to Lord Goderich.
Or the Earl of Bath, if we include those who had to involuntarily refuse the commission.
Sorry that the facts spoil your idea.
A 2nd to Durham is being denied,
It does appear an Easter Sunday trip to Barnard Castle when we were told to stay at home for Easter happened though
Have you ever considered writing for TV (I would also add films, under "normal" circumstances) court-based series?
https://twitter.com/RussInCheshire/status/1264503367319117830
When the job losses start coming in. When the pound is plunging. When we see figures of excess deaths from other causes start to spike because people are too scared to go to hospital.
Some of us will be there to say I told you so. But Dom will be there to say "I told Boris and he ignored me".
As I said in a previous thread a quarter of the people I work with got handed their notice last week and lockdown is about as popular as a fart in a lift with all of them right now.
I can only assume Dom has behaved as he has, including saying "I don't care" yesterday, because he's a massive lockdown sceptic at heart. He will be an extremely popular and presicent man in six months time if he goes on record as saying that now.
The actual mortality rate of the virus is relatively low at around 1.4% the vast majority of whom are in over 60's who have underlying health conditions. That's not to minimise the risks, nor the horror of witnessing a loved one die from it, but there's a lot to be said for finding a middle ground - as many SE Asian countries have successfully proven.