I wonder, if we asked the EU nicely, whether they'd let us delay Brexit. I mean, is there really any point right now? A tedious distraction for all concerned at best.
I suspect the transition period will be extended indefinitely.
I wonder, if we asked the EU nicely, whether they'd let us delay Brexit. I mean, is there really any point right now? A tedious distraction for all concerned at best.
We have until the end of July to request an extension to the transition period of (IIRC) up to two years. However, Boris specifically disallowed himself from requesting it in the EUWA, so he'd need primary legislation to repeal or suspension using the Civil Contingencies Act of the relevant clause(s) first.
If the government are thinking about mortgage holidays then I hope they're going to do something about people who rent.
I would be annoyed if they pay my landlord's mortgage, but I have to pay the rent as usual.
The mortgage holiday is a bit of a con, though, because although you don’t pay now, your loan stays the same and interest is added. So it is really just allowing people to pay later.
Which is fine given the pandemic won’t (we hope!) last forever.
It doesn’t work for renters, though. If they are out of work it hardly helps to say pay no rent now and we’ll come for double rent in the summer.
'He also tells MPs that measures on shielding will be for those who have "significant health conditions”.They will be contacted by the NHS, he says.
But he adds the measures were not aimed at the "generality of over 70s who are healthy".
He says the guidance for those over 70 is the same as for people of working age, except that the government strongly advises social distancing measures.'
So is this a blanket measure for the over 70s or not?
Eh?
Sandy doesn't seem to have had a reply to this (except for Rottenborough's "Eh?"), and as far as I'm concerned as a just-70 it's important. At all ages, we're advised to minimise social contact. But in Johnson's presentation with the associated boffins, 70+ers were bracketed with people with serious conditions as needing extra care:
"Johnson raised the likelihood of those over 70 and more vulnerable people, such as those with prior health conditions, soon needing to be “largely shielded from social contact for around 12 weeks”...
People aged over 70 and those with underlying medical conditions who would normally have a flu inoculation should take particular care, Whitty said."
But Hancock says we're just the same as people of working age, except that social distancing measures are strongly advised.
So people of working age are advised to minimise social contact, and healthy people over 70 are just the same, except they need social distancing measures. What exactly should we do or not do? For instance, should I do a weekly shop, or not? I work with 90 colleagues. Is my situation "just the same", or is it different?
I'm not trying to be difficult. I'd like to know.
Being practical I might suggest you go to the shops at off peak times.
My 'eh' was about Hancock's advice, not Sandy's posting, for the avoidance of doubt.
The Chancellor now needs to think about what needs to be done to save the economy. I think:
(1) That the government or the BoE is going to have to provide open ended credit to all existing businesses for the next 6 months at least, probably longer. The amount of credit should be determined by their turnover as established by HMRC and should be pro rata.
(2) The quid pro quo for such largess is that those businesses who receive it have to keep all of their current employees (and gig workers that they regularly use) on full wages, whether there is any work for them to do right now or not.
(3) This way these businesses prevent mass unemployment, the complete swamping of our benefits system, the avoidance of mass arrears of mortgages threatening the banks, the closure of those businesses who can actually still trade such as food shops and give us a base on which we can rebuild.
I really cannot see any other way that we can avoid total meltdown. The amount of new debt that this would create would be truly massive but the tax base would then still exist and longer term the outgoings of the government would be less.
Why not force the banks to give everyone a loan holiday for several months, and extend full credit on top ?
They can afford it.
Firstly they can't. Secondly that distributes incomes according to the amount of debt people have which seems a bizarre way of doing it. Thirdly, I don't see how that maintains demand which is absolutely critical.
It’s effectively a giant cash injection.
It may just be pushing on a piece of string. People can spend on Netflix and home gaming, but how could it help restraunts, pubs and theatres?
If restaurants offer take away, they can satisfy lots of demand there.
There is going to have to be a separate package for pubs - we cannot emerge from this with the backbone of Britain broken. They might have to temporarily nationalise them to keep them breathing.
1000x times.
Government needs to get on the front foot with this.
I wonder, if we asked the EU nicely, whether they'd let us delay Brexit. I mean, is there really any point right now? A tedious distraction for all concerned at best.
Why should we ask them nicely.
I have no doubt that transistion will be extended but with respect from both sides
And we have left so either a deal will be required at some time, or we will no deal
Some are saying on this forum that ironically no deal just now is the best outcome
If the government are thinking about mortgage holidays then I hope they're going to do something about people who rent.
I would be annoyed if they pay my landlord's mortgage, but I have to pay the rent as usual.
The mortgage holiday is a bit of a con, though, because although you don’t pay now, your loan stays the same and interest is added. So it is really just allowing people to pay later.
Which is fine given the pandemic won’t (we hope!) last forever.
It doesn’t work for renters, though. If they are out of work it hardly helps to say pay no rent now and we’ll come for double rent in the summer.
In which case the landlord would be acting illegally given the government has suspended rental payments for that time frame and could be prosecuted
I have been helping my daughter with insurance. A government mandated or advised closure of pubs is not covered by any existing insurance policy. Unless the government does something they will close.
I know one of the authors personally, and he's very good at his stuff. I know a lot of the rest by reputation and having read their prior work and these are top-of-the-field guys.
I know one of the authors personally, and he's very good at his stuff. I know a lot of the rest by reputation and having read their prior work and these are top-of-the-field guys.
I'm taking a short break from PB for various reasons, and this decision has been reinforced by the coronavirus event (I don't know what will happen, I don't have the knowledge base to comment sensibly, and any comment by me on such a factual matter may count against me professionally). I will hopefully return in a few weeks/months depending.
However, there is one way I can usefuly contribute and that is by providing links. You may have noted the earlier comment about a briefing from Imperial. I have found what I believe to be the report being briefed. I am on the tablet and so cannot provide a link but if you Google "impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce Covid-19 mortality and healthcare demand" you should find it. It is a report from the MRC Centre For Global Infectious Disease Analysis, which is part of imperial.ac.uk
Oh, while I'm here, major sympathies to @Charles, @Cyclefree, and all the others who have afflicted family and other loved ones. My very best hopes to you
Interesting. Such policies are robust to uncertainty in both the reproduction number, R0 (Table 4) and in the severity of the virus (i.e. the proportion of cases requiring ICU admission, not shown). Table 3 illustrates that suppression policies are best triggered early in the epidemic, with a cumulative total of 200 ICU cases per week being the latest point at which policies can be triggered and still keep peak ICU demand below GB surge limits in the case of a relatively high R0 value of 2.6. Expected total deaths are also reduced for lower triggers, though deaths for all the policies considered are much lower than for an uncontrolled epidemic. The right panel of Table 4 shows that social distancing (plus school and university closure, if used) need to be in force for the majority of the 2 years of the simulation, but that the proportion of time these measures are in force is reduced for more effective interventions and for lower values of R0....
I thought Boris was great today. As for businesses, it is a horrible time for them, but many will adapt to survive. There is (for example) a vast market there for things to be home delivered. Meals (and everything else) on wheels. Home entertainment is going to be another huge growth industry. Even humble publishing may make a comeback - for some reason the local Coop was stripped bare of magazines today.
I just spoke to my sister tonight...a London teacher...she said it was slightly off-putting teaching 28 year 7's coughing and spluttering in a classroom...
However, her fear of e-teaching terrifies her so she's happy to keep the school open....
Just started reading the Imperial report, the ramp on those that are symptomatic cases by age. If oldies get it, a huge proportion are going to hospital and if they are, they require an ICU bed...it is literally if we many of those idiots like I posted a tweet from who says they are a fit 70 year old...they will crash the system in a day or two.
Tbh watching Boris today I think T May would have been better in this situation
I'm not certain, at least Boris can u-turn on the drop of a hat, May might have stuck out the daft herd immunity plan way longer.
May would have taken until the end of the month just to get to the first plan.
I don't think the word daft is appropriate. If it (herd immunity) could have been achieved with the same number of deaths as the lockdown plan it would have been great. Sadly, this is not possible, but the scientists have adjusted their thinking and we have the ability to change course in time.
But using words like daft here don't help as the public health professionals / epidemiologists are working without much data and having to make assumptions about parameters that are extremely challenging (cf @TimT downthread).
Sorry but that the NHS would be completely overwhelmed before anything near herd immunity is achieved was completely forseeable even whilst the virus was barely out of Wuhan province. The other part is that the Gov't could surely forsee it would have to u-turn if our death rate was going higher than other countries with the obvious political pressure it would bring ?
Isn't the plan to build up herd immunity in a controlled and sustainable way? Not via let rip.
'He also tells MPs that measures on shielding will be for those who have "significant health conditions”.They will be contacted by the NHS, he says.
But he adds the measures were not aimed at the "generality of over 70s who are healthy".
He says the guidance for those over 70 is the same as for people of working age, except that the government strongly advises social distancing measures.'
So is this a blanket measure for the over 70s or not?
Eh?
Sandy doesn't seem to have had a reply to this (except for Rottenborough's "Eh?"), and as far as I'm concerned as a just-70 it's important. At all ages, we're advised to minimise social contact. But in Johnson's presentation with the associated boffins, 70+ers were bracketed with people with serious conditions as needing extra care:
"Johnson raised the likelihood of those over 70 and more vulnerable people, such as those with prior health conditions, soon needing to be “largely shielded from social contact for around 12 weeks”...
People aged over 70 and those with underlying medical conditions who would normally have a flu inoculation should take particular care, Whitty said."
But Hancock says we're just the same as people of working age, except that social distancing measures are strongly advised.
So people of working age are advised to minimise social contact, and healthy people over 70 are just the same, except they need social distancing measures. What exactly should we do or not do? For instance, should I do a weekly shop, or not? I work with 90 colleagues. Is my situation "just the same", or is it different?
I'm not trying to be difficult. I'd like to know.
Being practical I might suggest you go to the shops at off peak times.
My 'eh' was about Hancock's advice, not Sandy's posting, for the avoidance of doubt.
Tbh watching Boris today I think T May would have been better in this situation
I'm not certain, at least Boris can u-turn on the drop of a hat, May might have stuck out the daft herd immunity plan way longer.
May would have taken until the end of the month just to get to the first plan.
I don't think the word daft is appropriate. If it (herd immunity) could have been achieved with the same number of deaths as the lockdown plan it would have been great. Sadly, this is not possible, but the scientists have adjusted their thinking and we have the ability to change course in time.
But using words like daft here don't help as the public health professionals / epidemiologists are working without much data and having to make assumptions about parameters that are extremely challenging (cf @TimT downthread).
Sorry but that the NHS would be completely overwhelmed before anything near herd immunity is achieved was completely forseeable even whilst the virus was barely out of Wuhan province. The other part is that the Gov't could surely forsee it would have to u-turn if our death rate was going higher than other countries with the obvious political pressure it would bring ?
Isn't the plan to build up herd immunity in a controlled and sustainable way? Not via let rip.
I thought Boris was great today. As for businesses, it is a horrible time for them, but many will adapt to survive. There is (for example) a vast market there for things to be home delivered. Meals (and everything else) on wheels. Home entertainment is going to be another huge growth industry. Even humble publishing may make a comeback - for some reason the local Coop was stripped bare of magazines today.
You are completely mad if you think businesses should be expected to get through this without serious support. Pubs will be utterly screwed. The fact that Netflix will make more money won’t offer any comfort to the Dog & Duck.
The Chancellor now needs to think about what needs to be done to save the economy. I think:
(1) That the government or the BoE is going to have to provide open ended credit to all existing businesses for the next 6 months at least, probably longer. The amount of credit should be determined by their turnover as established by HMRC and should be pro rata.
(2) The quid pro quo for such largess is that those businesses who receive it have to keep all of their current employees (and gig workers that they regularly use) on full wages, whether there is any work for them to do right now or not.
(3) This way these businesses prevent mass unemployment, the complete swamping of our benefits system, the avoidance of mass arrears of mortgages threatening the banks, the closure of those businesses who can actually still trade such as food shops and give us a base on which we can rebuild.
I really cannot see any other way that we can avoid total meltdown. The amount of new debt that this would create would be truly massive but the tax base would then still exist and longer term the outgoings of the government would be less.
Its also time for the rich to get their cheque books out.
Starting with Richard Branson.
Who do you think is going to be paying for it out of taxation on the other side?
Well the likes of Richard Branson will be doing their best not to while also demanding handouts for their own businesses.
I'm taking a short break from PB for various reasons, and this decision has been reinforced by the coronavirus event (I don't know what will happen, I don't have the knowledge base to comment sensibly, and any comment by me on such a factual matter may count against me professionally). I will hopefully return in a few weeks/months depending.
However, there is one way I can usefuly contribute and that is by providing links. You may have noted the earlier comment about a briefing from Imperial. I have found what I believe to be the report being briefed. I am on the tablet and so cannot provide a link but if you Google "impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce Covid-19 mortality and healthcare demand" you should find it. It is a report from the MRC Centre For Global Infectious Disease Analysis, which is part of imperial.ac.uk
Oh, while I'm here, major sympathies to @Charles, @Cyclefree, and all the others who have afflicted family and other loved ones. My very best hopes to you
Tbh watching Boris today I think T May would have been better in this situation
I'm not certain, at least Boris can u-turn on the drop of a hat, May might have stuck out the daft herd immunity plan way longer.
May would have taken until the end of the month just to get to the first plan.
I don't think the word daft is appropriate. If it (herd immunity) could have been achieved with the same number of deaths as the lockdown plan it would have been great. Sadly, this is not possible, but the scientists have adjusted their thinking and we have the ability to change course in time.
But using words like daft here don't help as the public health professionals / epidemiologists are working without much data and having to make assumptions about parameters that are extremely challenging (cf @TimT downthread).
Sorry but that the NHS would be completely overwhelmed before anything near herd immunity is achieved was completely forseeable even whilst the virus was barely out of Wuhan province. The other part is that the Gov't could surely forsee it would have to u-turn if our death rate was going higher than other countries with the obvious political pressure it would bring ?
Isn't the plan to build up herd immunity in a controlled and sustainable way? Not via let rip.
I think this herd stuff quite frankly seems like some science mental masturbating...nice to discuss over a spliff...but when the NHS collapses in London end of next week....you get my drift....
I wonder, if we asked the EU nicely, whether they'd let us delay Brexit. I mean, is there really any point right now? A tedious distraction for all concerned at best.
Why should we ask them nicely.
I have no doubt that transistion will be extended but with respect from both sides
And we have left so either a deal will be required at some time, or we will no deal
Some are saying on this forum that ironically no deal just now is the best outcome
Tbh watching Boris today I think T May would have been better in this situation
I'm not certain, at least Boris can u-turn on the drop of a hat, May might have stuck out the daft herd immunity plan way longer.
May would have taken until the end of the month just to get to the first plan.
I don't think the word daft is appropriate. If it (herd immunity) could have been achieved with the same number of deaths as the lockdown plan it would have been great. Sadly, this is not possible, but the scientists have adjusted their thinking and we have the ability to change course in time.
But using words like daft here don't help as the public health professionals / epidemiologists are working without much data and having to make assumptions about parameters that are extremely challenging (cf @TimT downthread).
Sorry but that the NHS would be completely overwhelmed before anything near herd immunity is achieved was completely forseeable even whilst the virus was barely out of Wuhan province. The other part is that the Gov't could surely forsee it would have to u-turn if our death rate was going higher than other countries with the obvious political pressure it would bring ?
Isn't the plan to build up herd immunity in a controlled and sustainable way? Not via let rip.
I thought Boris was great today. As for businesses, it is a horrible time for them, but many will adapt to survive. There is (for example) a vast market there for things to be home delivered. Meals (and everything else) on wheels. Home entertainment is going to be another huge growth industry. Even humble publishing may make a comeback - for some reason the local Coop was stripped bare of magazines today.
You are completely mad if you think businesses should be expected to get through this without serious support. Pubs will be utterly screwed. The fact that Netflix will make more money won’t offer any comfort to the Dog & Duck.
I don't think they will survive without serious support, and I agree it's a shame that in the short term it's the multinational media and web giants who will clean up. However there is opportunity there. I've just ordered a Tesco delivery for the 28th of this month - the earliest slot available. There is massive potential for home delivery, as indeed many shops used to offer.
I'm taking a short break from PB for various reasons, and this decision has been reinforced by the coronavirus event (I don't know what will happen, I don't have the knowledge base to comment sensibly, and any comment by me on such a factual matter may count against me professionally). I will hopefully return in a few weeks/months depending.
However, there is one way I can usefuly contribute and that is by providing links. You may have noted the earlier comment about a briefing from Imperial. I have found what I believe to be the report being briefed. I am on the tablet and so cannot provide a link but if you Google "impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce Covid-19 mortality and healthcare demand" you should find it. It is a report from the MRC Centre For Global Infectious Disease Analysis, which is part of imperial.ac.uk
Oh, while I'm here, major sympathies to @Charles, @Cyclefree, and all the others who have afflicted family and other loved ones. My very best hopes to you
I have been helping my daughter with insurance. A government mandated or advised closure of pubs is not covered by any existing insurance policy. Unless the government does something they will close.
Unless people ignore government advice.
Business interruption is not my field but I think the relevant team in my company did a paper on what (if any) cover might be triggered by a pandemic
When I fire up work lap top in morning I will take a look to see if I can lay my hands on it.
Tbh watching Boris today I think T May would have been better in this situation
I'm not certain, at least Boris can u-turn on the drop of a hat, May might have stuck out the daft herd immunity plan way longer.
May would have taken until the end of the month just to get to the first plan.
I don't think the word daft is appropriate. If it (herd immunity) could have been achieved with the same number of deaths as the lockdown plan it would have been great. Sadly, this is not possible, but the scientists have adjusted their thinking and we have the ability to change course in time.
But using words like daft here don't help as the public health professionals / epidemiologists are working without much data and having to make assumptions about parameters that are extremely challenging (cf @TimT downthread).
Sorry but that the NHS would be completely overwhelmed before anything near herd immunity is achieved was completely forseeable even whilst the virus was barely out of Wuhan province. The other part is that the Gov't could surely forsee it would have to u-turn if our death rate was going higher than other countries with the obvious political pressure it would bring ?
Isn't the plan to build up herd immunity in a controlled and sustainable way? Not via let rip.
Impossible to do in one season I think.
We could already be doing it. Thousands could have had it and not even know.
Being practical I might suggest you go to the shops at off peak times.
My 'eh' was about Hancock's advice, not Sandy's posting, for the avoidance of doubt.
The shopping suggestion makes good sense, thanks. And apologies for misunderstanding the "eh?" I can see Hancock wants to be helpful, but precision is needed here.
Tbh watching Boris today I think T May would have been better in this situation
I'm not certain, at least Boris can u-turn on the drop of a hat, May might have stuck out the daft herd immunity plan way longer.
May would have taken until the end of the month just to get to the first plan.
I don't think the word daft is appropriate. If it (herd immunity) could have been achieved with the same number of deaths as the lockdown plan it would have been great. Sadly, this is not possible, but the scientists have adjusted their thinking and we have the ability to change course in time.
But using words like daft here don't help as the public health professionals / epidemiologists are working without much data and having to make assumptions about parameters that are extremely challenging (cf @TimT downthread).
Sorry but that the NHS would be completely overwhelmed before anything near herd immunity is achieved was completely forseeable even whilst the virus was barely out of Wuhan province. The other part is that the Gov't could surely forsee it would have to u-turn if our death rate was going higher than other countries with the obvious political pressure it would bring ?
Isn't the plan to build up herd immunity in a controlled and sustainable way? Not via let rip.
Impossible to do in one season I think.
Trouble is that it was spun that the point was to get to herd immunity by this winter; think of all those graphs of the Post-WWI flu. And that was massively, back-of-an-envelope (40 million cases over six months, a few percent requiring intensive care) bonkers.
I have been helping my daughter with insurance. A government mandated or advised closure of pubs is not covered by any existing insurance policy. Unless the government does something they will close.
Unless people ignore government advice.
For what it's worth, I think most will just go about things more surreptitiously.
Tbh watching Boris today I think T May would have been better in this situation
I'm not certain, at least Boris can u-turn on the drop of a hat, May might have stuck out the daft herd immunity plan way longer.
May would have taken until the end of the month just to get to the first plan.
I don't think the word daft is appropriate. If it (herd immunity) could have been achieved with the same number of deaths as the lockdown plan it would have been great. Sadly, this is not possible, but the scientists have adjusted their thinking and we have the ability to change course in time.
But using words like daft here don't help as the public health professionals / epidemiologists are working without much data and having to make assumptions about parameters that are extremely challenging (cf @TimT downthread).
Sorry but that the NHS would be completely overwhelmed before anything near herd immunity is achieved was completely forseeable even whilst the virus was barely out of Wuhan province. The other part is that the Gov't could surely forsee it would have to u-turn if our death rate was going higher than other countries with the obvious political pressure it would bring ?
.
Bedlam at work today, real headless chicken time, with little command and direction from above. Patients phoning admin to cancel appointments out of fear and confusion. Asking for advice, but no answers possible. Inconsistent use of scarce PPE, even home made PPE being jury rigged. Protocols changing over the course of the day, even reversed. We are sorting stuff on the ground, but boy was that month of delay squandered. Back to it tommorow, temperature permitting.
Tbh watching Boris today I think T May would have been better in this situation
I'm not certain, at least Boris can u-turn on the drop of a hat, May might have stuck out the daft herd immunity plan way longer.
May would have taken until the end of the month just to get to the first plan.
I don't think the word daft is appropriate. If it (herd immunity) could have been achieved with the same number of deaths as the lockdown plan it would have been great. Sadly, this is not possible, but the scientists have adjusted their thinking and we have the ability to change course in time.
But using words like daft here don't help as the public health professionals / epidemiologists are working without much data and having to make assumptions about parameters that are extremely challenging (cf @TimT downthread).
Sorry but that the NHS would be completely overwhelmed before anything near herd immunity is achieved was completely forseeable even whilst the virus was barely out of Wuhan province. The other part is that the Gov't could surely forsee it would have to u-turn if our death rate was going higher than other countries with the obvious political pressure it would bring ?
.
Bedlam at work today, real headless chicken time, with little command and direction from above. Patients phoning admin to cancel appointments out of fear and confusion. Asking for advice, but no answers possible. Inconsistent use of scarce PPE, even home made PPE being jury rigged. Protocols changing over the course of the day, even reversed. We are sorting stuff on the ground, but boy was that month of delay squandered. Back to it tommorow, temperature permitting.
Best of luck. And many thanks for all you are doing. Grim times.
I'm taking a short break from PB for various reasons, and this decision has been reinforced by the coronavirus event (I don't know what will happen, I don't have the knowledge base to comment sensibly, and any comment by me on such a factual matter may count against me professionally). I will hopefully return in a few weeks/months depending.
However, there is one way I can usefuly contribute and that is by providing links. You may have noted the earlier comment about a briefing from Imperial. I have found what I believe to be the report being briefed. I am on the tablet and so cannot provide a link but if you Google "impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce Covid-19 mortality and healthcare demand" you should find it. It is a report from the MRC Centre For Global Infectious Disease Analysis, which is part of imperial.ac.uk
Oh, while I'm here, major sympathies to @Charles, @Cyclefree, and all the others who have afflicted family and other loved ones. My very best hopes to you
Interesting. Such policies are robust to uncertainty in both the reproduction number, R0 (Table 4) and in the severity of the virus (i.e. the proportion of cases requiring ICU admission, not shown). Table 3 illustrates that suppression policies are best triggered early in the epidemic, with a cumulative total of 200 ICU cases per week being the latest point at which policies can be triggered and still keep peak ICU demand below GB surge limits in the case of a relatively high R0 value of 2.6. Expected total deaths are also reduced for lower triggers, though deaths for all the policies considered are much lower than for an uncontrolled epidemic. The right panel of Table 4 shows that social distancing (plus school and university closure, if used) need to be in force for the majority of the 2 years of the simulation, but that the proportion of time these measures are in force is reduced for more effective interventions and for lower values of R0....
Christ, are they implying that schools and unis would be pretty much closed for TWO YEARS?
I wonder, if we asked the EU nicely, whether they'd let us delay Brexit. I mean, is there really any point right now? A tedious distraction for all concerned at best.
Why should we ask them nicely.
I have no doubt that transistion will be extended but with respect from both sides
And we have left so either a deal will be required at some time, or we will no deal
Some are saying on this forum that ironically no deal just now is the best outcome
I'd be up for a delay.
This is totally unprecedented.
This thing makes any talk of Brexit meaningless.....it's pathetic to be honest even bringing the thing up because it's just divisive when we really need to pull together...
Who knows what life is going to be like when we get through the other side...our economy will be shrunk by circa 15%..taxes will have plummeted and Govt finances will have risen exponentially....and in all likelihood China and the East will be the global players.....
Tbh watching Boris today I think T May would have been better in this situation
I'm not certain, at least Boris can u-turn on the drop of a hat, May might have stuck out the daft herd immunity plan way longer.
May would have taken until the end of the month just to get to the first plan.
I don't think the word daft is appropriate. If it (herd immunity) could have been achieved with the same number of deaths as the lockdown plan it would have been great. Sadly, this is not possible, but the scientists have adjusted their thinking and we have the ability to change course in time.
But using words like daft here don't help as the public health professionals / epidemiologists are working without much data and having to make assumptions about parameters that are extremely challenging (cf @TimT downthread).
Sorry but that the NHS would be completely overwhelmed before anything near herd immunity is achieved was completely forseeable even whilst the virus was barely out of Wuhan province. The other part is that the Gov't could surely forsee it would have to u-turn if our death rate was going higher than other countries with the obvious political pressure it would bring ?
.
Bedlam at work today, real headless chicken time, with little command and direction from above. Patients phoning admin to cancel appointments out of fear and confusion. Asking for advice, but no answers possible. Inconsistent use of scarce PPE, even home made PPE being jury rigged. Protocols changing over the course of the day, even reversed. We are sorting stuff on the ground, but boy was that month of delay squandered. Back to it tommorow, temperature permitting.
Either you allow herd immunity bar the elderly and vulnerable and a peak now to build up immunity and reduce further peak in Winter or you don't and go for lockdown now, there is no middle way and no 'herd immunity in a controlled and sustainable way'
I wonder, if we asked the EU nicely, whether they'd let us delay Brexit. I mean, is there really any point right now? A tedious distraction for all concerned at best.
Why should we ask them nicely.
I have no doubt that transistion will be extended but with respect from both sides
And we have left so either a deal will be required at some time, or we will no deal
Some are saying on this forum that ironically no deal just now is the best outcome
I'd be up for a delay.
This is totally unprecedented.
This thing makes any talk of Brexit meaningless.....it's pathetic to be honest even bringing the thing up because it's just divisive when we really need to pull together...
Who knows what life is going to be like when we get through the other side...our economy will be shrunk by circa 15%..taxes will have plummeted and Govt finances will have risen exponentially....and in all likelihood China and the East will be the global players.....
Tbh watching Boris today I think T May would have been better in this situation
I'm not certain, at least Boris can u-turn on the drop of a hat, May might have stuck out the daft herd immunity plan way longer.
May would have taken until the end of the month just to get to the first plan.
I don't think the word daft is appropriate. If it (herd immunity) could have been achieved with the same number of deaths as the lockdown plan it would have been great. Sadly, this is not possible, but the scientists have adjusted their thinking and we have the ability to change course in time.
But using words like daft here don't help as the public health professionals / epidemiologists are working without much data and having to make assumptions about parameters that are extremely challenging (cf @TimT downthread).
Sorry but that the NHS would be completely overwhelmed before anything near herd immunity is achieved was completely forseeable even whilst the virus was barely out of Wuhan province. The other part is that the Gov't could surely forsee it would have to u-turn if our death rate was going higher than other countries with the obvious political pressure it would bring ?
.
Bedlam at work today, real headless chicken time, with little command and direction from above. Patients phoning admin to cancel appointments out of fear and confusion. Asking for advice, but no answers possible. Inconsistent use of scarce PPE, even home made PPE being jury rigged. Protocols changing over the course of the day, even reversed. We are sorting stuff on the ground, but boy was that month of delay squandered. Back to it tommorow, temperature permitting.
Tbh watching Boris today I think T May would have been better in this situation
I'm not certain, at least Boris can u-turn on the drop of a hat, May might have stuck out the daft herd immunity plan way longer.
May would have taken until the end of the month just to get to the first plan.
I don't think the word daft is appropriate. If it (herd immunity) could have been achieved with the same number of deaths as the lockdown plan it would have been great. Sadly, this is not possible, but the scientists have adjusted their thinking and we have the ability to change course in time.
But using words like daft here don't help as the public health professionals / epidemiologists are working without much data and having to make assumptions about parameters that are extremely challenging (cf @TimT downthread).
Sorry but that the NHS would be completely overwhelmed before anything near herd immunity is achieved was completely forseeable even whilst the virus was barely out of Wuhan province. The other part is that the Gov't could surely forsee it would have to u-turn if our death rate was going higher than other countries with the obvious political pressure it would bring ?
.
Bedlam at work today, real headless chicken time, with little command and direction from above. Patients phoning admin to cancel appointments out of fear and confusion. Asking for advice, but no answers possible. Inconsistent use of scarce PPE, even home made PPE being jury rigged. Protocols changing over the course of the day, even reversed. We are sorting stuff on the ground, but boy was that month of delay squandered. Back to it tommorow, temperature permitting.
You are doing a brilliant job. Thanks for what you're doing.
I wonder, if we asked the EU nicely, whether they'd let us delay Brexit. I mean, is there really any point right now? A tedious distraction for all concerned at best.
Why should we ask them nicely.
I have no doubt that transistion will be extended but with respect from both sides
And we have left so either a deal will be required at some time, or we will no deal
Some are saying on this forum that ironically no deal just now is the best outcome
I'd be up for a delay.
This is totally unprecedented.
This thing makes any talk of Brexit meaningless.....it's pathetic to be honest even bringing the thing up because it's just divisive when we really need to pull together...
Who knows what life is going to be like when we get through the other side...our economy will be shrunk by circa 15%..taxes will have plummeted and Govt finances will have risen exponentially....and in all likelihood China and the East will be the global players.....
The EU- who really cares about Brexit now??
China will be hated after this.
That's probably why they've already started their misinformation campaign to blame the US. God alone knows why it's not called the Wuhan flu.
Was sorry to read that you both have relatives hit by CV-19, I hope that they pull through.
There are about a hundred or so regular PBers, and we've now had reports of several friends and relatives with it. That seems awfully high for something with only 50k cases, at most.
I wonder, if we asked the EU nicely, whether they'd let us delay Brexit. I mean, is there really any point right now? A tedious distraction for all concerned at best.
Why should we ask them nicely.
I have no doubt that transistion will be extended but with respect from both sides
And we have left so either a deal will be required at some time, or we will no deal
Some are saying on this forum that ironically no deal just now is the best outcome
I'd be up for a delay.
This is totally unprecedented.
This thing makes any talk of Brexit meaningless.....it's pathetic to be honest even bringing the thing up because it's just divisive when we really need to pull together...
Who knows what life is going to be like when we get through the other side...our economy will be shrunk by circa 15%..taxes will have plummeted and Govt finances will have risen exponentially....and in all likelihood China and the East will be the global players.....
The EU- who really cares about Brexit now??
China will be hated after this.
Well in Italy...they are supplying doctors and equipment....
Once our health system fails....would you accept help from the Chinese?
Tbh watching Boris today I think T May would have been better in this situation
I'm not certain, at least Boris can u-turn on the drop of a hat, May might have stuck out the daft herd immunity plan way longer.
May would have taken until the end of the month just to get to the first plan.
I don't think the word daft is appropriate. If it (herd immunity) could have been achieved with the same number of deaths as the lockdown plan it would have been great. Sadly, this is not possible, but the scientists have adjusted their thinking and we have the ability to change course in time.
But using words like daft here don't help as the public health professionals / epidemiologists are working without much data and having to make assumptions about parameters that are extremely challenging (cf @TimT downthread).
Sorry but that the NHS would be completely overwhelmed before anything near herd immunity is achieved was completely forseeable even whilst the virus was barely out of Wuhan province. The other part is that the Gov't could surely forsee it would have to u-turn if our death rate was going higher than other countries with the obvious political pressure it would bring ?
.
Bedlam at work today, real headless chicken time, with little command and direction from above. Patients phoning admin to cancel appointments out of fear and confusion. Asking for advice, but no answers possible. Inconsistent use of scarce PPE, even home made PPE being jury rigged. Protocols changing over the course of the day, even reversed. We are sorting stuff on the ground, but boy was that month of delay squandered. Back to it tommorow, temperature permitting.
You are doing a brilliant job. Thanks for what you're doing.
I am not sure that we are, but fortunately just the leading edge of the issues to come.
Tbh watching Boris today I think T May would have been better in this situation
I'm not certain, at least Boris can u-turn on the drop of a hat, May might have stuck out the daft herd immunity plan way longer.
May would have taken until the end of the month just to get to the first plan.
I don't think the word daft is appropriate. If it (herd immunity) could have been achieved with the same number of deaths as the lockdown plan it would have been great. Sadly, this is not possible, but the scientists have adjusted their thinking and we have the ability to change course in time.
But using words like daft here don't help as the public health professionals / epidemiologists are working without much data and having to make assumptions about parameters that are extremely challenging (cf @TimT downthread).
Sorry but that the NHS would be completely overwhelmed before anything near herd immunity is achieved was completely forseeable even whilst the virus was barely out of Wuhan province. The other part is that the Gov't could surely forsee it would have to u-turn if our death rate was going higher than other countries with the obvious political pressure it would bring ?
.
Bedlam at work today, real headless chicken time, with little command and direction from above. Patients phoning admin to cancel appointments out of fear and confusion. Asking for advice, but no answers possible. Inconsistent use of scarce PPE, even home made PPE being jury rigged. Protocols changing over the course of the day, even reversed. We are sorting stuff on the ground, but boy was that month of delay squandered. Back to it tommorow, temperature permitting.
You are doing a brilliant job. Thanks for what you're doing.
What he said - thanks to all our health professionals
I wonder, if we asked the EU nicely, whether they'd let us delay Brexit. I mean, is there really any point right now? A tedious distraction for all concerned at best.
Why should we ask them nicely.
I have no doubt that transistion will be extended but with respect from both sides
And we have left so either a deal will be required at some time, or we will no deal
Some are saying on this forum that ironically no deal just now is the best outcome
I'd be up for a delay.
This is totally unprecedented.
This thing makes any talk of Brexit meaningless.....it's pathetic to be honest even bringing the thing up because it's just divisive when we really need to pull together...
Who knows what life is going to be like when we get through the other side...our economy will be shrunk by circa 15%..taxes will have plummeted and Govt finances will have risen exponentially....and in all likelihood China and the East will be the global players.....
The EU- who really cares about Brexit now??
I'm really not sure the EU, as we know it, will survive coronavirus. I can easily see various countries peeling off, for various reasons.
Who knows, one thing the EU president looked hapless calling on EU countries to leave their borders open and continue trade as usual within the Eurozone...at the same time as Germany pulled up the drawbridge.
I wonder, if we asked the EU nicely, whether they'd let us delay Brexit. I mean, is there really any point right now? A tedious distraction for all concerned at best.
Why should we ask them nicely.
I have no doubt that transistion will be extended but with respect from both sides
And we have left so either a deal will be required at some time, or we will no deal
Some are saying on this forum that ironically no deal just now is the best outcome
I'd be up for a delay.
This is totally unprecedented.
This thing makes any talk of Brexit meaningless.....it's pathetic to be honest even bringing the thing up because it's just divisive when we really need to pull together...
Who knows what life is going to be like when we get through the other side...our economy will be shrunk by circa 15%..taxes will have plummeted and Govt finances will have risen exponentially....and in all likelihood China and the East will be the global players.....
The EU- who really cares about Brexit now??
China will be hated after this.
Well in Italy...they are supplying doctors and equipment....
Once our health system fails....would you accept help from the Chinese?
I thought Boris was great today. As for businesses, it is a horrible time for them, but many will adapt to survive. There is (for example) a vast market there for things to be home delivered. Meals (and everything else) on wheels. Home entertainment is going to be another huge growth industry. Even humble publishing may make a comeback - for some reason the local Coop was stripped bare of magazines today.
You are completely mad if you think businesses should be expected to get through this without serious support. Pubs will be utterly screwed. The fact that Netflix will make more money won’t offer any comfort to the Dog & Duck.
I don't think they will survive without serious support, and I agree it's a shame that in the short term it's the multinational media and web giants who will clean up. However there is opportunity there. I've just ordered a Tesco delivery for the 28th of this month - the earliest slot available. There is massive potential for home delivery, as indeed many shops used to offer.
And then some young guy with a cough turns up with your food on the 28th....
I wonder, if we asked the EU nicely, whether they'd let us delay Brexit. I mean, is there really any point right now? A tedious distraction for all concerned at best.
Why should we ask them nicely.
I have no doubt that transistion will be extended but with respect from both sides
And we have left so either a deal will be required at some time, or we will no deal
Some are saying on this forum that ironically no deal just now is the best outcome
I'd be up for a delay.
This is totally unprecedented.
This thing makes any talk of Brexit meaningless.....it's pathetic to be honest even bringing the thing up because it's just divisive when we really need to pull together...
Who knows what life is going to be like when we get through the other side...our economy will be shrunk by circa 15%..taxes will have plummeted and Govt finances will have risen exponentially....and in all likelihood China and the East will be the global players.....
The EU- who really cares about Brexit now??
China will be hated after this.
Well in Italy...they are supplying doctors and equipment....
Once our health system fails....would you accept help from the Chinese?
It is completely horrifying. Lockdown is almost certain in the autumn, and I suppose next spring as well. The economy is going to be absolute toast.
If people didn't believe it before, it is war.
Basically lockdown is to avoid 500k deaths over the next few months, which would exceed the Spanish flu, but we are almost certain to get hammered in the autumn, and I'm assuming next spring, requiring more lockdowns. This will keep happening until either huge numbers of people are dead and we have herd immunity or we get a vaccine.
Unless I've not understood the paper, which I've not read in full yet, It's almost a dead cert that it will be worse than the Spanish flu in the end; and much worse if the economy collapses.
Was sorry to read that you both have relatives hit by CV-19, I hope that they pull through.
There are about a hundred or so regular PBers, and we've now had reports of several friends and relatives with it. That seems awfully high for something with only 50k cases, at most.
My sister's son- a doctor- is isolating at home with a high fever and cough (he cannot get tested....wtf????) My bosses son is positive My wife's colleague has returned from Spain with a fever and cough
My brother in laws school in London- 15 teachers are now self isolating-
Tbh watching Boris today I think T May would have been better in this situation
I'm not certain, at least Boris can u-turn on the drop of a hat, May might have stuck out the daft herd immunity plan way longer.
May would have taken until the end of the month just to get to the first plan.
I don't think the word daft is appropriate. If it (herd immunity) could have been achieved with the same number of deaths as the lockdown plan it would have been great. Sadly, this is not possible, but the scientists have adjusted their thinking and we have the ability to change course in time.
But using words like daft here don't help as the public health professionals / epidemiologists are working without much data and having to make assumptions about parameters that are extremely challenging (cf @TimT downthread).
Sorry but that the NHS would be completely overwhelmed before anything near herd immunity is achieved was completely forseeable even whilst the virus was barely out of Wuhan province. The other part is that the Gov't could surely forsee it would have to u-turn if our death rate was going higher than other countries with the obvious political pressure it would bring ?
.
Bedlam at work today, real headless chicken time, with little command and direction from above. Patients phoning admin to cancel appointments out of fear and confusion. Asking for advice, but no answers possible. Inconsistent use of scarce PPE, even home made PPE being jury rigged. Protocols changing over the course of the day, even reversed. We are sorting stuff on the ground, but boy was that month of delay squandered. Back to it tommorow, temperature permitting.
You are doing a brilliant job. Thanks for what you're doing.
I am not sure that we are, but fortunately just the leading edge of the issues to come.
You are. And every day brings more knowledge in being a blackbelt Corona-destroying machine.
By the way, I've been meaning to ask, is there any difference in what a Corona patient needs and what a standard ICU patient needs? Meaning, do we have to have all the bells and whistles, or could a more basic and cheap version of an ICU bed designed solely for Corona-complications be utilised?
I know one of the authors personally, and he's very good at his stuff. I know a lot of the rest by reputation and having read their prior work and these are top-of-the-field guys.
I wonder, if we asked the EU nicely, whether they'd let us delay Brexit. I mean, is there really any point right now? A tedious distraction for all concerned at best.
Why should we ask them nicely.
I have no doubt that transistion will be extended but with respect from both sides
And we have left so either a deal will be required at some time, or we will no deal
Some are saying on this forum that ironically no deal just now is the best outcome
I'd be up for a delay.
This is totally unprecedented.
This thing makes any talk of Brexit meaningless.....it's pathetic to be honest even bringing the thing up because it's just divisive when we really need to pull together...
Who knows what life is going to be like when we get through the other side...our economy will be shrunk by circa 15%..taxes will have plummeted and Govt finances will have risen exponentially....and in all likelihood China and the East will be the global players.....
The EU- who really cares about Brexit now??
China will be hated after this.
That's probably why they've already started their misinformation campaign to blame the US. God alone knows why it's not called the Wuhan flu.
Why is it terrifying??? It's what happens in science - you adjust the model when you get new data. We are going to have to adopt the lockdown model as we can't manage this epidemic in as controlled a way as we would have liked. After this we will then adapt how we handle the next wave, which will be much less costly (due to better therapy / diagnostics / equipment). The use of 'terrifying' and 'jaw dropping' is sensationalist and un-scientific drivel.
Indeed, some of us have been saying this for weeks...
Some of us even before the mitigation policy was officially announced. It was pretty obvious the NHS couldn't cope with what was being asked.
So much for the experts. Hopefully this will teach people to engage their brain rather than blindly parrot what they are told.
If this modelling is even vaguely right, I am not sure some countries selling the idea of a few weeks of lockdown doing the trick is the best idea.
At least our government have made it clear oldies are going into hiding for 3-4 months.
5 months is what the charts show, and then maybe a month or two hiatus before the next round. Basically if you are ill or old don't expect to get out of the house much over the next few years.
Was sorry to read that you both have relatives hit by CV-19, I hope that they pull through.
There are about a hundred or so regular PBers, and we've now had reports of several friends and relatives with it. That seems awfully high for something with only 50k cases, at most.
My sister's son- a doctor- is isolating at home with a high fever and cough (he cannot get tested....wtf????) My bosses son is positive My wife's colleague has returned from Spain with a fever and cough
My brother in laws school in London- 15 teachers are now self isolating-
The lack of testing for those displaying
Dry cough AND fever AND recent return or contact from spain or Italy is the most bizarre part of all.
Was sorry to read that you both have relatives hit by CV-19, I hope that they pull through.
There are about a hundred or so regular PBers, and we've now had reports of several friends and relatives with it. That seems awfully high for something with only 50k cases, at most.
My sister's son- a doctor- is isolating at home with a high fever and cough (he cannot get tested....wtf????) My bosses son is positive My wife's colleague has returned from Spain with a fever and cough
My brother in laws school in London- 15 teachers are now self isolating-
Tbh watching Boris today I think T May would have been better in this situation
I'm not certain, at least Boris can u-turn on the drop of a hat, May might have stuck out the daft herd immunity plan way longer.
May would have taken until the end of the month just to get to the first plan.
I don't think the word daft is appropriate. If it (herd immunity) could have been achieved with the same number of deaths as the lockdown plan it would have been great. Sadly, this is not possible, but the scientists have adjusted their thinking and we have the ability to change course in time.
But using words like daft here don't help as the public health professionals / epidemiologists are working without much data and having to make assumptions about parameters that are extremely challenging (cf @TimT downthread).
Sorry but that the NHS would be completely overwhelmed before anything near herd immunity is achieved was completely forseeable even whilst the virus was barely out of Wuhan province. The other part is that the Gov't could surely forsee it would have to u-turn if our death rate was going higher than other countries with the obvious political pressure it would bring ?
.
Bedlam at work today, real headless chicken time, with little command and direction from above. Patients phoning admin to cancel appointments out of fear and confusion. Asking for advice, but no answers possible. Inconsistent use of scarce PPE, even home made PPE being jury rigged. Protocols changing over the course of the day, even reversed. We are sorting stuff on the ground, but boy was that month of delay squandered. Back to it tommorow, temperature permitting.
I'm taking a short break from PB for various reasons, and this decision has been reinforced by the coronavirus event (I don't know what will happen, I don't have the knowledge base to comment sensibly, and any comment by me on such a factual matter may count against me professionally). I will hopefully return in a few weeks/months depending.
However, there is one way I can usefuly contribute and that is by providing links. You may have noted the earlier comment about a briefing from Imperial. I have found what I believe to be the report being briefed. I am on the tablet and so cannot provide a link but if you Google "impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce Covid-19 mortality and healthcare demand" you should find it. It is a report from the MRC Centre For Global Infectious Disease Analysis, which is part of imperial.ac.uk
Oh, while I'm here, major sympathies to @Charles, @Cyclefree, and all the others who have afflicted family and other loved ones. My very best hopes to you
Interesting. Such policies are robust to uncertainty in both the reproduction number, R0 (Table 4) and in the severity of the virus (i.e. the proportion of cases requiring ICU admission, not shown). Table 3 illustrates that suppression policies are best triggered early in the epidemic, with a cumulative total of 200 ICU cases per week being the latest point at which policies can be triggered and still keep peak ICU demand below GB surge limits in the case of a relatively high R0 value of 2.6. Expected total deaths are also reduced for lower triggers, though deaths for all the policies considered are much lower than for an uncontrolled epidemic. The right panel of Table 4 shows that social distancing (plus school and university closure, if used) need to be in force for the majority of the 2 years of the simulation, but that the proportion of time these measures are in force is reduced for more effective interventions and for lower values of R0....
Christ, are they implying that schools and unis would be pretty much closed for TWO YEARS?
Not the entire period... Illustration of adaptive triggering of suppression strategies in GB, for R0=2.2, a policy of all four interventions considered, an “on” trigger of 100 ICU cases in a week and an “off” trigger of 50 ICU cases. The policy is in force approximate 2/3 of the time. Only social distancing and school/university closure are triggered...
Remember too, this is modelling using current information. There might be more asymptomatic cases out there, for example, in which case the numbers improve.... R0 could be larger... in which case the numbers are worse (though this is complicated, as much transmission seems to be very local, so R0 might be ameliorable to a greater extent than the model predicts)....
Or if Actemra were to prove really effective in very sick patients...
I might get to the point where I become bored shitless at home and feel better volunteering and taking the virus head on (obviously with suitable protective gear) to make myself feel like I'm doing something and less impotent.
Was sorry to read that you both have relatives hit by CV-19, I hope that they pull through.
There are about a hundred or so regular PBers, and we've now had reports of several friends and relatives with it. That seems awfully high for something with only 50k cases, at most.
My sister's son- a doctor- is isolating at home with a high fever and cough (he cannot get tested....wtf????) My bosses son is positive My wife's colleague has returned from Spain with a fever and cough
My brother in laws school in London- 15 teachers are now self isolating-
Tyson - here in Essex they are testing staff.
I reported about my sons girlfriend being tested because she has symptoms
I think she has had 2 tests in about a week
They actually are testing everyone (nurses / doctors) even if no symptoms - and not just once - or so I am led to believe
@Foxy do you have many COVID-19 patients or is it the fear and confusion around it?
There are three on ICU in Leics, and more on the wards, so not yet overwhelming numbers, but without adequate testing, no one knows how significant every cough or temperature spike is. So yes, mostly fear and confusion. Lots of fearful patients, and some staff more interested in self preservation, though thankfully most are steadfast. One or two of my colleagues make eadric look like the the troopers of the Light Brigade.
I'm taking a short break from PB for various reasons, and this decision has been reinforced by the coronavirus event (I don't know what will happen, I don't have the knowledge base to comment sensibly, and any comment by me on such a factual matter may count against me professionally). I will hopefully return in a few weeks/months depending.
However, there is one way I can usefuly contribute and that is by providing links. You may have noted the earlier comment about a briefing from Imperial. I have found what I believe to be the report being briefed. I am on the tablet and so cannot provide a link but if you Google "impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce Covid-19 mortality and healthcare demand" you should find it. It is a report from the MRC Centre For Global Infectious Disease Analysis, which is part of imperial.ac.uk
Oh, while I'm here, major sympathies to @Charles, @Cyclefree, and all the others who have afflicted family and other loved ones. My very best hopes to you
Interesting. Such policies are robust to uncertainty in both the reproduction number, R0 (Table 4) and in the severity of the virus (i.e. the proportion of cases requiring ICU admission, not shown). Table 3 illustrates that suppression policies are best triggered early in the epidemic, with a cumulative total of 200 ICU cases per week being the latest point at which policies can be triggered and still keep peak ICU demand below GB surge limits in the case of a relatively high R0 value of 2.6. Expected total deaths are also reduced for lower triggers, though deaths for all the policies considered are much lower than for an uncontrolled epidemic. The right panel of Table 4 shows that social distancing (plus school and university closure, if used) need to be in force for the majority of the 2 years of the simulation, but that the proportion of time these measures are in force is reduced for more effective interventions and for lower values of R0....
Christ, are they implying that schools and unis would be pretty much closed for TWO YEARS?
Not the entire period... Illustration of adaptive triggering of suppression strategies in GB, for R0=2.2, a policy of all four interventions considered, an “on” trigger of 100 ICU cases in a week and an “off” trigger of 50 ICU cases. The policy is in force approximate 2/3 of the time. Only social distancing and school/university closure are triggered...
Remember too, this is modelling using current information. There might be more asymptomatic cases out there, for example, in which case the numbers improve.... R0 could be larger... in which case the numbers are worse (though this is complicated, as much transmission seems to be very local, so R0 might be ameliorable to a greater extent than the model predicts)....
Or if Actemra were to prove really effective in very sick patients...
The Iceland paper suggested there were many more asymptomatic cases.
My parents are 89 and 90 - they have been self isolating to avoid infection since last Friday. Just had an email from my Dad saying that, if they are infected and it becomes serious enough to require hospitalisation, they have decided to refuse and die at home on the basis that younger people will need the facilities and it would be better for society. Bloody hell. BTW they still think younger generations should be ashamed of themselves for showing lack of backbone.
I'm taking a short break from PB for various reasons, and this decision has been reinforced by the coronavirus event (I don't know what will happen, I don't have the knowledge base to comment sensibly, and any comment by me on such a factual matter may count against me professionally). I will hopefully return in a few weeks/months depending.
However, there is one way I can usefuly contribute and that is by providing links. You may have noted the earlier comment about a briefing from Imperial. I have found what I believe to be the report being briefed. I am on the tablet and so cannot provide a link but if you Google "impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce Covid-19 mortality and healthcare demand" you should find it. It is a report from the MRC Centre For Global Infectious Disease Analysis, which is part of imperial.ac.uk
Oh, while I'm here, major sympathies to @Charles, @Cyclefree, and all the others who have afflicted family and other loved ones. My very best hopes to you
Interesting. Such policies are robust to uncertainty in both the reproduction number, R0 (Table 4) and in the severity of the virus (i.e. the proportion of cases requiring ICU admission, not shown). Table 3 illustrates that suppression policies are best triggered early in the epidemic, with a cumulative total of 200 ICU cases per week being the latest point at which policies can be triggered and still keep peak ICU demand below GB surge limits in the case of a relatively high R0 value of 2.6. Expected total deaths are also reduced for lower triggers, though deaths for all the policies considered are much lower than for an uncontrolled epidemic. The right panel of Table 4 shows that social distancing (plus school and university closure, if used) need to be in force for the majority of the 2 years of the simulation, but that the proportion of time these measures are in force is reduced for more effective interventions and for lower values of R0....
Christ, are they implying that schools and unis would be pretty much closed for TWO YEARS?
Not the entire period... Illustration of adaptive triggering of suppression strategies in GB, for R0=2.2, a policy of all four interventions considered, an “on” trigger of 100 ICU cases in a week and an “off” trigger of 50 ICU cases. The policy is in force approximate 2/3 of the time. Only social distancing and school/university closure are triggered...
Remember too, this is modelling using current information. There might be more asymptomatic cases out there, for example, in which case the numbers improve.... R0 could be larger... in which case the numbers are worse (though this is complicated, as much transmission seems to be very local, so R0 might be ameliorable to a greater extent than the model predicts)....
Or if Actemra were to prove really effective in very sick patients...
The Iceland paper suggested there were many more asymptomtic cases.
And the study of that Italian town, 50-75% asymptomatic.
@Foxy do you have many COVID-19 patients or is it the fear and confusion around it?
There are three on ICU in Leics, and more on the wards, so not yet overwhelming numbers, but without adequate testing, no one knows how significant every cough or temperature spike is. So yes, mostly fear and confusion. Lots of fearful patients, and some staff more interested in self preservation, though thankfully most are steadfast. One or two of my colleagues make eadric look like the the troopers of the Light Brigade.
I wonder, if we asked the EU nicely, whether they'd let us delay Brexit. I mean, is there really any point right now? A tedious distraction for all concerned at best.
Why should we ask them nicely.
I have no doubt that transistion will be extended but with respect from both sides
And we have left so either a deal will be required at some time, or we will no deal
Some are saying on this forum that ironically no deal just now is the best outcome
I'd be up for a delay.
This is totally unprecedented.
This thing makes any talk of Brexit meaningless.....it's pathetic to be honest even bringing the thing up because it's just divisive when we really need to pull together...
Who knows what life is going to be like when we get through the other side...our economy will be shrunk by circa 15%..taxes will have plummeted and Govt finances will have risen exponentially....and in all likelihood China and the East will be the global players.....
The EU- who really cares about Brexit now??
I'm really not sure the EU, as we know it, will survive coronavirus. I can easily see various countries peeling off, for various reasons.
Who knows, one thing the EU president looked hapless calling on EU countries to leave their borders open and continue trade as usual within the Eurozone...at the same time as Germany pulled up the drawbridge.
That's what really matters here. Not leaving quarter of a million oldies out to die to test a model. Up yours Von der Leyen is what matters.
My parents are 89 and 90 - they have been self isolating to avoid infection since last Friday. Just had an email from my Dad saying that, if they are infected and it becomes serious enough to require hospitalisation, they have decided to refuse and die at home on the basis that younger people will need the facilities and it would be better for society. Bloody hell. BTW they still think younger generations should be ashamed of themselves for showing lack of backbone.
Was sorry to read that you both have relatives hit by CV-19, I hope that they pull through.
There are about a hundred or so regular PBers, and we've now had reports of several friends and relatives with it. That seems awfully high for something with only 50k cases, at most.
My sister's son- a doctor- is isolating at home with a high fever and cough (he cannot get tested....wtf????) My bosses son is positive My wife's colleague has returned from Spain with a fever and cough
My brother in laws school in London- 15 teachers are now self isolating-
The lack of testing for those displaying
Dry cough AND fever AND recent return or contact from spain or Italy is the most bizarre part of all.
It's fucking shocking my nephew...a junior doctor working on a general ward in the south...is not getting tested...
he wants to work...and told he cannot....and when he feels better he will not know if he has had it, so the next time he feels unwell...
Test, test, test...how can you fight a fire if you cannot see it...
The something must be done brigade has a new cheer leader.
The kind of measures Osborne is thinking about show he is not in touch. His ideology is over.
Why?
Simply underwriting bank loans, almost on a 2008 model, will not deal with this crisis day-to-day. It's just not the right starting point or adequate enough to meet the challenge of this crisis.
Remember too, this is modelling using current information. There might be more asymptomatic cases out there, for example, in which case the numbers improve.... R0 could be larger... in which case the numbers are worse (though this is complicated, as much transmission seems to be very local, so R0 might be ameliorable to a greater extent than the model predicts)....
Or if Actemra were to prove really effective in very sick patients...
This is why what the CMO said about a test for people who have had the virus and were asymptomatic is so important, we need the mother of all ice bergs or we are facing a crisis of huge proportions.
My parents are 89 and 90 - they have been self isolating to avoid infection since last Friday. Just had an email from my Dad saying that, if they are infected and it becomes serious enough to require hospitalisation, they have decided to refuse and die at home on the basis that younger people will need the facilities and it would be better for society. Bloody hell. BTW they still think younger generations should be ashamed of themselves for showing lack of backbone.
Why is it terrifying??? It's what happens in science - you adjust the model when you get new data. We are going to have to adopt the lockdown model as we can't manage this epidemic in as controlled a way as we would have liked. After this we will then adapt how we handle the next wave, which will be much less costly (due to better therapy / diagnostics / equipment). The use of 'terrifying' and 'jaw dropping' is sensationalist and un-scientific drivel.
Indeed, some of us have been saying this for weeks...
Some of us even before the mitigation policy was officially announced. It was pretty obvious the NHS couldn't cope with what was being asked.
So much for the experts. Hopefully this will teach people to engage their brain rather than blindly parrot what they are told.
You're using an expert's model to criticise experts?
Comments
Government needs to get on the front foot with this.
I have no doubt that transistion will be extended but with respect from both sides
And we have left so either a deal will be required at some time, or we will no deal
Some are saying on this forum that ironically no deal just now is the best outcome
Unless people ignore government advice.
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf
I know one of the authors personally, and he's very good at his stuff. I know a lot of the rest by reputation and having read their prior work and these are top-of-the-field guys.
Take this stuff seriously, it's powerful.
https://twitter.com/whippletom/status/1239619001522761728
Anyone know if this press conference was televised/webcasted somewhere?
Is that Imperial paper one of the most chilling ever written?
Such policies are robust to uncertainty in both the reproduction number, R0 (Table 4) and in the severity of the virus (i.e. the proportion of cases requiring ICU admission, not shown). Table 3 illustrates that suppression policies are best triggered early in the epidemic, with a cumulative total of 200 ICU cases per week being the latest point at which policies can be triggered and still keep peak ICU demand below GB surge limits in the case of a relatively high R0 value of 2.6. Expected total deaths are also reduced for lower triggers, though deaths for all the policies considered are much lower than for an uncontrolled epidemic. The right panel of Table 4 shows that social distancing (plus school and university closure, if used) need to be in force for the majority of the 2 years of the simulation, but that the proportion of time these measures are in force is reduced for more effective interventions and for lower values of R0....
However, her fear of e-teaching terrifies her so she's happy to keep the school open....
The other part is that the Gov't could surely forsee it would have to u-turn if our death rate was going higher than other countries with the obvious political pressure it would bring ?
Isn't the plan to build up herd immunity in a controlled and sustainable way? Not via let rip.
Impossible to do in one season I think.
I think this herd stuff quite frankly seems like some science mental masturbating...nice to discuss over a spliff...but when the NHS collapses in London end of next week....you get my drift....
This is totally unprecedented.
Wouldn't it slowly build over time ?
When I fire up work lap top in morning I will take a look to see if I can lay my hands on it.
Trouble is that it was spun that the point was to get to herd immunity by this winter; think of all those graphs of the Post-WWI flu. And that was massively, back-of-an-envelope (40 million cases over six months, a few percent requiring intensive care) bonkers.
Bedlam at work today, real headless chicken time, with little command and direction from above. Patients phoning admin to cancel appointments out of fear and confusion. Asking for advice, but no answers possible.
Inconsistent use of scarce PPE, even home made PPE being jury rigged. Protocols changing over the course of the day, even reversed. We are sorting stuff on the ground, but boy was that month of delay squandered.
Back to it tommorow, temperature permitting.
Inconsistent use of scarce PPE, even home made PPE being jury rigged. Protocols changing over the course of the day, even reversed. We are sorting stuff on the ground, but boy was that month of delay squandered.
Back to it tommorow, temperature permitting.
Best of luck. And many thanks for all you are doing. Grim times.
The report shows they have very little effect.
Who knows what life is going to be like when we get through the other side...our economy will be shrunk by circa 15%..taxes will have plummeted and Govt finances will have risen exponentially....and in all likelihood China and the East will be the global players.....
The EU- who really cares about Brexit now??
The something must be done brigade has a new cheer leader.
Inconsistent use of scarce PPE, even home made PPE being jury rigged. Protocols changing over the course of the day, even reversed. We are sorting stuff on the ground, but boy was that month of delay squandered.
Back to it tommorow, temperature permitting.
Either you allow herd immunity bar the elderly and vulnerable and a peak now to build up immunity and reduce further peak in Winter or you don't and go for lockdown now, there is no middle way and no 'herd immunity in a controlled and sustainable way'
Inconsistent use of scarce PPE, even home made PPE being jury rigged. Protocols changing over the course of the day, even reversed. We are sorting stuff on the ground, but boy was that month of delay squandered.
Back to it tommorow, temperature permitting.
Hang in there.
Was sorry to read that you both have relatives hit by CV-19, I hope that they pull through.
At least our government have made it clear oldies are going into hiding for 3-4 months.
Once our health system fails....would you accept help from the Chinese?
Putting it on the line for the rest of us.
The letter that was released uses really tortured language to avoid clearly saying that Trump took the test
Unless I've not understood the paper, which I've not read in full yet, It's almost a dead cert that it will be worse than the Spanish flu in the end; and much worse if the economy collapses.
My sister's son- a doctor- is isolating at home with a high fever and cough (he cannot get tested....wtf????)
My bosses son is positive
My wife's colleague has returned from Spain with a fever and cough
My brother in laws school in London- 15 teachers are now self isolating-
By the way, I've been meaning to ask, is there any difference in what a Corona patient needs and what a standard ICU patient needs? Meaning, do we have to have all the bells and whistles, or could a more basic and cheap version of an ICU bed designed solely for Corona-complications be utilised?
Now they think it is probably going to be more than 2 months
What a difference a weekend makes.
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf
I know one of the authors personally, and he's very good at his stuff. I know a lot of the rest by reputation and having read their prior work and these are top-of-the-field guys.
Take this stuff seriously, it's powerful.
https://twitter.com/whippletom/status/1239619001522761728
Anyone know if this press conference was televised/webcasted somewhere?
------------------------------
This indicates soberly that the choice is between unacceptable solutions.
Plenty will believe it.
So much for the experts. Hopefully this will teach people to engage their brain rather than blindly parrot what they are told.
Dry cough AND fever AND recent return or contact from spain or Italy is the most bizarre part of all.
Inconsistent use of scarce PPE, even home made PPE being jury rigged. Protocols changing over the course of the day, even reversed. We are sorting stuff on the ground, but boy was that month of delay squandered.
Back to it tommorow, temperature permitting.
Good work, fella. Stay safe.
Illustration of adaptive triggering of suppression strategies in GB, for R0=2.2, a policy of all four interventions considered, an “on” trigger of 100 ICU cases in a week and an “off” trigger of 50 ICU cases. The policy is in force approximate 2/3 of the time. Only social distancing and school/university closure are triggered...
Remember too, this is modelling using current information.
There might be more asymptomatic cases out there, for example, in which case the numbers improve....
R0 could be larger... in which case the numbers are worse (though this is complicated, as much transmission seems to be very local, so R0 might be ameliorable to a greater extent than the model predicts)....
Or if Actemra were to prove really effective in very sick patients...
Not sure what my wife would say though.
I reported about my sons girlfriend being tested because she has symptoms
I think she has had 2 tests in about a week
They actually are testing everyone (nurses / doctors) even if no symptoms - and not just once - or so I am led to believe
So yes, mostly fear and confusion. Lots of fearful patients, and some staff more interested in self preservation, though thankfully most are steadfast. One or two of my colleagues make eadric look like the the troopers of the Light Brigade.
I think I am going to throw myself into new projects and hope that there is an some sort of economy for them if we ever emerge from this.
Eadric is in a league all of his own
It's fucking shocking my nephew...a junior doctor working on a general ward in the south...is not getting tested...
he wants to work...and told he cannot....and when he feels better he will not know if he has had it, so the next time he feels unwell...
Test, test, test...how can you fight a fire if you cannot see it...