Thought Stephanie Flanders was a great guest on Newsnight. Made the point that, in economic terms, the diagnosis is simple: people aren’t earning (enough) money; and people are spending enough money. Nothing like the Byzantine complexity of 2008.
So the fiscal measures necessary need to inject the cash in the right places, where people will spend it not save it. That’s not an easy solution to find, but at least the problem is easily definable.
I doubt JM Keynes would have imagined countermeasures to the Paradox of Thrift on such a grand scale.
I'm fairly confident that the taps will be turned on big time tomorrow.
“Everyone should be trying to follow these measures as much as is pragmatic.
For those who are over 70, have an underlying health condition or are pregnant, we strongly advise you to follow the above measures as much as you can, and to significantly limit your face-to-face interaction with friends and family if possible.
This advice is likely to be in place for some weeks.”
I've recently turned 70, in good health. I see nothing there stopping me going out in the car with the wife, popping in the local shop when its quiet for a few essentials. Am I wrong?
Quite. It’s so open and caveated to be largely meaningless. If you only have to ‘try’ and do it just ‘as much as is pragmatic’ or if you are particularly risk do ‘as much as you can’ and to limit interaction ‘if possible’, don’t be surprised if people don’t do it.
You would not write a anything remotely binding or forceful like this. The government do not ask you to try to pay your taxes as much is pragmatic.
How would you suggest they enforce it? Police stop people who look like they could be 70 or over and ask for proof of age?
As written I doubt that many people will stick to it. After a few days there will be so many ‘I’ll just pop down to the coop or go round to see Sheila’ moments. People tend to believe that the worst can’t happen to them, right up until it happens.
So if this advice is as critical as it is supposed to be it needs more bite. You can start by toughening up the language In the rules. Hell the green cross code was tougher than this. Get the police out to tell people to go home if required.
I naively think that it would be most effective to do that as you approach the peak, to keep them inside at the moment of maximum risk.
Which according to the press announcement today, the rapid growth is starting now.
Yeah, but the risk is still lower than at the peak simply due the relatively low number of people with it. Maybe in a couple of weeks it can be changed from "should" to "must".
And it doesn't talk about two years with the UK being in total lockdown. It talks about some measures remaining in place for two years.
Okay I think robert is right, he's understood it better than I did at first.
If I've got it now, it seems there is going to be quite an abrupt and long suppression lockdown for vulnerable people, and widespread social distancing. This change of plan is because mitigation is no longer considered viable given the Italian experience. If the supression works we move to an ON/OFF supression approach until a vaccine is available.
That said the paper does clearly raise the issue of the cost of this, socially and economically, and whether or not it can be sustained for a long period of time.
So we still need that iceberg, and a vaccine ASAP.
It is completely horrifying. Lockdown is almost certain in the autumn, and I suppose next spring as well. The economy is going to be absolute toast.
If people didn't believe it before, it is war.
I just read it
Basically, if we want to save half a million lives, we have to transform society, starting NOW (and possibly collapse the economy)
Jesus.
You guys have all gone completely nuts.
There is a two week gap between actions being taken and showing up in statistics of new cases.
You're staring at the numbers today... and seeing what happened two weeks ago. This means there are a lot more people sick that you realise (probably about three more doublings to go...), but after that, as happened in China, the number of new cases starts to drop pretty quickly.
Now, we'll go through it again, as a series of mini spikes. But at least we'll know what we're doing then.
Man up PBers.
Nah. While you were spending weeks thinking hard about which non entity was going to beat which other non entity in the Democrats bullshit, we were going deep into THE black swan of the last 70 years.
You've now focused your gaze here, spent a couple of days thinking about it and think you've got it all figured out based on one graph? Lol erm no.
We'll see soon enough. If Italy's new case number starts to decline next week then we'll know lockdowns work. (Hint: they do.)
This doesn't solve the problem - as I've said multiple times - of how we remove restrictions without restarting the issue. But it will demonstrate how to stop the number spiralling out of control.
And, by the way, I've written plenty of times about how serious this is. But I've pegged the death toll as a max of 80-100k, not a million. If anything, I'm probably slightly more optimistic now than I was a week ago.
Lol. I know lock downs work. I knew that 5 weeks ago. The problem is that the society we all live in is then DONE. Have you actually seen any of the experienced life behind the lock down in Italy or China? It involves not doing anything with a bit of welding people into their homes mixed in. For TWO YEARS.
China is relaxing the lockdowns already. After six weeks. Not two years.
Because they are desperate to kickstart the economy, because the CCP knows that its survival likely depends on GDP growth of 4%+.
I hope the Chinese prove me wrong. But I fear a return of this wretched bug, there, as they try to reopen, certainly by next winter. Which is just seven months away.
Incidentally., the Olympics are surely finished. Too many athletes will be ill, or vulnerable. They should accept it now.
Of course it going to come back!
But it's not coming back at 5,000 infections per day. It'll come back growing from a low level, and then they'll stamp on it again in two months or so.
And because they'll know what's coming, and because they have better testing now, and because they won't remove all the restrictions at once, the growth will likely come back at a (initally at first) much slower pace.
They'll have a series of bumps, perhaps two or three months apart. And each time, they'll be better able to deal with it.
It'll be extremely unpleasant. But it won't be terminal.
Who has said it is terminal?
Nobody. WW2 wasn't terminal. But it fundamentally changed the world and had huge unforeseen consequences which potentially were worse.
“Everyone should be trying to follow these measures as much as is pragmatic.
For those who are over 70, have an underlying health condition or are pregnant, we strongly advise you to follow the above measures as much as you can, and to significantly limit your face-to-face interaction with friends and family if possible.
This advice is likely to be in place for some weeks.”
I've recently turned 70, in good health. I see nothing there stopping me going out in the car with the wife, popping in the local shop when its quiet for a few essentials. Am I wrong?
Quite. It’s so open and caveated to be largely meaningless. If you only have to ‘try’ and do it just ‘as much as is pragmatic’ or if you are particularly risk do ‘as much as you can’ and to limit interaction ‘if possible’, don’t be surprised if people don’t do it.
You would not write a anything remotely binding or forceful like this. The government do not ask you to try to pay your taxes as much is pragmatic.
How would you suggest they enforce it? Police stop people who look like they could be 70 or over and ask for proof of age?
As written I doubt that many people will stick to it. After a few days there will be so many ‘I’ll just pop down to the coop or go round to see Sheila’ moments. People tend to believe that the worst can’t happen to them, right up until it happens.
So if this advice is as critical as it is supposed to be it needs more bite. You can start by toughening up the language In the rules. Hell the green cross code was tougher than this. Get the police out to tell people to go home if required.
I naively think that it would be most effective to do that as you approach the peak, to keep them inside at the moment of maximum risk.
Which according to the press announcement today, the rapid growth is starting now.
Yeah, but the risk is still lower than at the peak simply due the relatively low number of people with it. Maybe in a couple of weeks it can be changed from "should" to "must".
Maybe in a couple of days.
People have got the rest of this week to get things sorted, food stockpiled etc.
It is completely horrifying. Lockdown is almost certain in the autumn, and I suppose next spring as well. The economy is going to be absolute toast.
If people didn't believe it before, it is war.
I just read it
Basically, if we want to save half a million lives, we have to transform society, starting NOW (and possibly collapse the economy)
Jesus.
You guys have all gone completely nuts.
There is a two week gap between actions being taken and showing up in statistics of new cases.
You're staring at the numbers today... and seeing what happened two weeks ago. This means there are a lot more people sick that you realise (probably about three more doublings to go...), but after that, as happened in China, the number of new cases starts to drop pretty quickly.
Now, we'll go through it again, as a series of mini spikes. But at least we'll know what we're doing then.
Man up PBers.
Nah. While you were spending weeks thinking hard about which non entity was going to beat which other non entity in the Democrats bullshit, we were going deep into THE black swan of the last 70 years.
You've now focused your gaze here, spent a couple of days thinking about it and think you've got it all figured out based on one graph? Lol erm no.
We'll see soon enough. If Italy's new case number starts to decline next week then we'll know lockdowns work. (Hint: they do.)
This doesn't solve the problem - as I've said multiple times - of how we remove restrictions without restarting the issue. But it will demonstrate how to stop the number spiralling out of control.
And, by the way, I've written plenty of times about how serious this is. But I've pegged the death toll as a max of 80-100k, not a million. If anything, I'm probably slightly more optimistic now than I was a week ago.
Lol. I know lock downs work. I knew that 5 weeks ago. The problem is that the society we all live in is then DONE. Have you actually seen any of the experienced life behind the lock down in Italy or China? It involves not doing anything with a bit of welding people into their homes mixed in. For TWO YEARS.
China is relaxing the lockdowns already. After six weeks. Not two years.
I suggest you read the report by the Imperial team and put down the fag packet.
We will see what happens when China opens up again. (Hint: it will come back and the blow torches will be out again)
I have read it.
And it doesn't talk about two years with the UK being in total lockdown. It talks about some measures remaining in place for two years.
Hand washing and home working will be given a permanent boost.
Lots of people now working at home will find they prefer it and won’t go back to 9-5 in offices. However, I expect many will organise communal days a couple of days a week. A 3 days home / 2 office mix is probably best, WFH every single day is probably a bit much, although we will all do it for now.
It is completely horrifying. Lockdown is almost certain in the autumn, and I suppose next spring as well. The economy is going to be absolute toast.
If people didn't believe it before, it is war.
I just read it
Basically, if we want to save half a million lives, we have to transform society, starting NOW (and possibly collapse the economy)
Jesus.
You guys have all gone completely nuts.
There is a two week gap between actions being taken and showing up in statistics of new cases.
You're staring at the numbers today... and seeing what happened two weeks ago. This means there are a lot more people sick that you realise (probably about three more doublings to go...), but after that, as happened in China, the number of new cases starts to drop pretty quickly.
Now, we'll go through it again, as a series of mini spikes. But at least we'll know what we're doing then.
Man up PBers.
Nah. While you were spending weeks thinking hard about which non entity was going to beat which other non entity in the Democrats bullshit, we were going deep into THE black swan of the last 70 years.
You've now focused your gaze here, spent a couple of days thinking about it and think you've got it all figured out based on one graph? Lol erm no.
We'll see soon enough. If Italy's new case number starts to decline next week then we'll know lockdowns work. (Hint: they do.)
This doesn't solve the problem - as I've said multiple times - of how we remove restrictions without restarting the issue. But it will demonstrate how to stop the number spiralling out of control.
And, by the way, I've written plenty of times about how serious this is. But I've pegged the death toll as a max of 80-100k, not a million. If anything, I'm probably slightly more optimistic now than I was a week ago.
Lol. I know lock downs work. I knew that 5 weeks ago. The problem is that the society we all live in is then DONE. Have you actually seen any of the experienced life behind the lock down in Italy or China? It involves not doing anything with a bit of welding people into their homes mixed in. For TWO YEARS.
China is relaxing the lockdowns already. After six weeks. Not two years.
Because they are desperate to kickstart the economy, because the CCP knows that its survival likely depends on GDP growth of 4%+.
I hope the Chinese prove me wrong. But I fear a return of this wretched bug, there, as they try to reopen, certainly by next winter. Which is just seven months away.
Incidentally., the Olympics are surely finished. Too many athletes will be ill, or vulnerable. They should accept it now.
Of course it going to come back!
But it's not coming back at 5,000 infections per day. It'll come back growing from a low level, and then they'll stamp on it again in two months or so.
And because they'll know what's coming, and because they have better testing now, and because they won't remove all the restrictions at once, the growth will likely come back at a (initally at first) much slower pace.
They'll have a series of bumps, perhaps two or three months apart. And each time, they'll be better able to deal with it.
It'll be extremely unpleasant. But it won't be terminal.
Who has said it is terminal?
Nobody. WW2 wasn't terminal. But it fundamentally changed the world and had huge unforeseen consequences which potentially were worse.
It's notable that the 1918 flu outbreak is estimated to have killed up to 100 million people at a time when world population was 1.9 billion, which would be 5%, yet it isn't that well-known about outside people interested in history.
It is completely horrifying. Lockdown is almost certain in the autumn, and I suppose next spring as well. The economy is going to be absolute toast.
If people didn't believe it before, it is war.
I just read it
Basically, if we want to save half a million lives, we have to transform society, starting NOW (and possibly collapse the economy)
Jesus.
You guys have all gone completely nuts.
There is a two week gap between actions being taken and showing up in statistics of new cases.
You're staring at the numbers today... and seeing what happened two weeks ago. This means there are a lot more people sick that you realise (probably about three more doublings to go...), but after that, as happened in China, the number of new cases starts to drop pretty quickly.
Now, we'll go through it again, as a series of mini spikes. But at least we'll know what we're doing then.
Man up PBers.
Nah. While you were spending weeks thinking hard about which non entity was going to beat which other non entity in the Democrats bullshit, we were going deep into THE black swan of the last 70 years.
You've now focused your gaze here, spent a couple of days thinking about it and think you've got it all figured out based on one graph? Lol erm no.
We'll see soon enough. If Italy's new case number starts to decline next week then we'll know lockdowns work. (Hint: they do.)
This doesn't solve the problem - as I've said multiple times - of how we remove restrictions without restarting the issue. But it will demonstrate how to stop the number spiralling out of control.
And, by the way, I've written plenty of times about how serious this is. But I've pegged the death toll as a max of 80-100k, not a million. If anything, I'm probably slightly more optimistic now than I was a week ago.
Lol. I know lock downs work. I knew that 5 weeks ago. The problem is that the society we all live in is then DONE. Have you actually seen any of the experienced life behind the lock down in Italy or China? It involves not doing anything with a bit of welding people into their homes mixed in. For TWO YEARS.
China is relaxing the lockdowns already. After six weeks. Not two years.
I suggest you read the report by the Imperial team and put down the fag packet.
We will see what happens when China opens up again. (Hint: it will come back and the blow torches will be out again)
I have read it.
And it doesn't talk about two years with the UK being in total lockdown. It talks about some measures remaining in place for two years.
Hand washing and home working will be given a permanent boost.
Lots of people now working at home will find they prefer it and won’t go back to 9-5 in offices. However, I expect many will organise communal days a couple of days a week. A 3 days home / 2 office mix is probably best, WFH every single day is probably a bit much, although we will all do it for now.
I've suggested where I work that we all go to full flexitime.
One way to not feel so gloomy is to imagine you were a Syrian trapped in a hell hole of bombings, gas attacks, ISIS control, no home, no food, no society, for the last decade, then being offered the chance of a new life in the uk as long as you agreed to sit in a nice home with all the tv, internet and movies you could ask for, a back garden with pleasant weather plus weekly food deliveries you can easily afford (inc alcohol) for up to three spring summer months
Or one of my good friends told today that his bowel cancer is inoperable.
In the mid 90s my dad was told he only had 6 months to live.
This guy's young though, much younger than me. He's been told 6 months with chemo. Lucky the NHS is going to be quiet, eh?
That's awful. I'm so sorry.
The fragility of life has never been so palpable.
I find myself contemplating, these days, the extinction of half my immediate family: literally.
Old parents, compromised relatives, etc. This fucking bug could scythe through those I know and love. It's horrific. My wife, who has been very stoical (especially at age 24) had a little weep tonight. I don't blame her. Her family is equally vulnerable.
But we then sang a song on her ukuelele, and swapped favourite memes. And laughed. Hey ho.
I guess she's particularly concerned about her elderly husband.
I really don't know why the new advice on pregnant women was issued. As far as I was aware they were a low risk group, being young, female and mostly healthy.
Yes I thought that was a bit odd. Could they be getting early evidence of a viral mutation that's starting to target pregnant women?
Swine Flu seemed to effect pregnant women more than other groups so this can happen?
Pretty sure Professor Chris Whitty at the presser said it was just a precaution as they don’t know if it affects unborn children.
It is completely horrifying. Lockdown is almost certain in the autumn, and I suppose next spring as well. The economy is going to be absolute toast.
If people didn't believe it before, it is war.
I just read it
Basically, if we want to save half a million lives, we have to transform society, starting NOW (and possibly collapse the economy)
Jesus.
You guys have all gone completely nuts.
There is a two week gap between actions being taken and showing up in statistics of new cases.
You're staring at the numbers today... and seeing what happened two weeks ago. This means there are a lot more people sick that you realise (probably about three more doublings to go...), but after that, as happened in China, the number of new cases starts to drop pretty quickly.
Now, we'll go through it again, as a series of mini spikes. But at least we'll know what we're doing then.
Man up PBers.
Nah. While you were spending weeks thinking hard about which non entity was going to beat which other non entity in the Democrats bullshit, we were going deep into THE black swan of the last 70 years.
You've now focused your gaze here, spent a couple of days thinking about it and think you've got it all figured out based on one graph? Lol erm no.
We'll see soon enough. If Italy's new case number starts to decline next week then we'll know lockdowns work. (Hint: they do.)
This doesn't solve the problem - as I've said multiple times - of how we remove restrictions without restarting the issue. But it will demonstrate how to stop the number spiralling out of control.
And, by the way, I've written plenty of times about how serious this is. But I've pegged the death toll as a max of 80-100k, not a million. If anything, I'm probably slightly more optimistic now than I was a week ago.
Lol. I know lock downs work. I knew that 5 weeks ago. The problem is that the society we all live in is then DONE. Have you actually seen any of the experienced life behind the lock down in Italy or China? It involves not doing anything with a bit of welding people into their homes mixed in. For TWO YEARS.
China is relaxing the lockdowns already. After six weeks. Not two years.
I suggest you read the report by the Imperial team and put down the fag packet.
We will see what happens when China opens up again. (Hint: it will come back and the blow torches will be out again)
I have read it.
And it doesn't talk about two years with the UK being in total lockdown. It talks about some measures remaining in place for two years.
Hand washing and home working will be given a permanent boost.
Lots of people now working at home will find they prefer it and won’t go back to 9-5 in offices. However, I expect many will organise communal days a couple of days a week. A 3 days home / 2 office mix is probably best, WFH every single day is probably a bit much, although we will all do it for now.
Welcome to the club everybody...
In all seriousness, I think it would be a very positive thing. For many commuting 2-3hrs a day and they miss out on valuable family time.
It's notable that the 1918 flu outbreak is estimated to have killed up to 100 million people at a time when world population was 1.9 billion, which would be 5%, yet it isn't that well-known about outside people interested in history.
Thankfully Covid19 shouldn't be as bad as the 1918 Flu as it doesn't seem to cause the kind of cytokine storm in otherwise healthy people that H1N1 did.
Okay, so my grandmother (who is isolating alone, but with all the bad health factors) should be getting a 4G tablet to facetime us with, I'm seriously worried about loneliness for her.
It's also hit me tonight that should both my parents and her get this, then there's a 5%ish chance that they all succumb given that they're in high risk groups. I hope that Mr Sunak provides enough helicopter money for me to buy a welder tomorrow!
I am getting seriously pissed off with the Left questioning the response. It is all about the fact that they lost in Dec 2019 and they know, just know, that Johnson is an evil person.
So suddenly everyone of them is a plague expert and stats genius.
The government didn't change tack because of the press, I'm sure they could have weathered that, it's the ICU figures from the UK and Italy and what the model showed that did it. It's a bit like an early-warning radar going off. They had to abandon mitigation.
Thought Stephanie Flanders was a great guest on Newsnight. Made the point that, in economic terms, the diagnosis is simple: people aren’t earning (enough) money; and people are spending enough money. Nothing like the Byzantine complexity of 2008.
So the fiscal measures necessary need to inject the cash in the right places, where people will spend it not save it. That’s not an easy solution to find, but at least the problem is easily definable.
I doubt JM Keynes would have imagined countermeasures to the Paradox of Thrift on such a grand scale.
I'm fairly confident that the taps will be turned on big time tomorrow.
Yup. Looks that way.
It’s a liquidity assurance solution not a interest rate cut solution? The right news for markets is what helps save and protect. Banks to say mortgage holiday with governments shoring that promise? For businesses tax breaks, tax holidays? You don’t want to find ways to give money when you are already a taker from them? Businesses also want customers to have money to spend, so benefit rises and tax cuts that puts money in pockets of those already living on the margins? To underwrite the governments would markets also want to hear of government income through some tax rises, maybe consumption taxes on more expensive luxuries so less reliance on borrowing?
It is completely horrifying. Lockdown is almost certain in the autumn, and I suppose next spring as well. The economy is going to be absolute toast.
If people didn't believe it before, it is war.
I just read it
Basically, if we want to save half a million lives, we have to transform society, starting NOW (and possibly collapse the economy)
Jesus.
You guys have all gone completely nuts.
There is a two week gap between actions being taken and showing up in statistics of new cases.
You're staring at the numbers today... and seeing what happened two weeks ago. This means there are a lot more people sick that you realise (probably about three more doublings to go...), but after that, as happened in China, the number of new cases starts to drop pretty quickly.
Now, we'll go through it again, as a series of mini spikes. But at least we'll know what we're doing then.
Man up PBers.
Nah. While you were spending weeks thinking hard about which non entity was going to beat which other non entity in the Democrats bullshit, we were going deep into THE black swan of the last 70 years.
You've now focused your gaze here, spent a couple of days thinking about it and think you've got it all figured out based on one graph? Lol erm no.
We'll see soon enough. If Italy's new case number starts to decline next week then we'll know lockdowns work. (Hint: they do.)
This doesn't solve the problem - as I've said multiple times - of how we remove restrictions without restarting the issue. But it will demonstrate how to stop the number spiralling out of control.
And, by the way, I've written plenty of times about how serious this is. But I've pegged the death toll as a max of 80-100k, not a million. If anything, I'm probably slightly more optimistic now than I was a week ago.
Lol. I know lock downs work. I knew that 5 weeks ago. The problem is that the society we all live in is then DONE. Have you actually seen any of the experienced life behind the lock down in Italy or China? It involves not doing anything with a bit of welding people into their homes mixed in. For TWO YEARS.
China is relaxing the lockdowns already. After six weeks. Not two years.
Because they are desperate to kickstart the economy, because the CCP knows that its survival likely depends on GDP growth of 4%+.
I hope the Chinese prove me wrong. But I fear a return of this wretched bug, there, as they try to reopen, certainly by next winter. Which is just seven months away.
Incidentally., the Olympics are surely finished. Too many athletes will be ill, or vulnerable. They should accept it now.
Of course it going to come back!
But it's not coming back at 5,000 infections per day. It'll come back growing from a low level, and then they'll stamp on it again in two months or so.
And because they'll know what's coming, and because they have better testing now, and because they won't remove all the restrictions at once, the growth will likely come back at a (initally at first) much slower pace.
They'll have a series of bumps, perhaps two or three months apart. And each time, they'll be better able to deal with it.
It'll be extremely unpleasant. But it won't be terminal.
Who has said it is terminal?
Nobody. WW2 wasn't terminal. But it fundamentally changed the world and had huge unforeseen consequences which potentially were worse.
It's notable that the 1918 flu outbreak is estimated to have killed up to 100 million people at a time when world population was 1.9 billion, which would be 5%, yet it isn't that well-known about outside people interested in history.
Yeah because people dying in their beds from flu is boring to historians versus the various ways men get murdered in war. It doesn't really mean anything at all.
I am getting seriously pissed off with the Left questioning the response. It is all about the fact that they lost in Dec 2019 and they know, just know, that Johnson is an evil person.
So suddenly everyone of them is a plague expert and stats genius.
The government didn't change tack because of the press, I'm sure they could have weathered that, it's the ICU figures from the UK and Italy and what the model showed that did it. It's a bit like an early-warning radar going off. They had to abandon mitigation.
The initial model under estimated the level of hospitalization required by HALF.
Can't be arsed to read through the 1,000+ posts but I assume Big G got offended at some point and HYUFD fellated Johnson.
Here's the Dead Pool list. Send me a message if I missed anyone. Some pretty poor form on display from individuals who didn't abide by the code of honour of the game...
It is completely horrifying. Lockdown is almost certain in the autumn, and I suppose next spring as well. The economy is going to be absolute toast.
If people didn't believe it before, it is war.
I just read it
Basically, if we want to save half a million lives, we have to transform society, starting NOW (and possibly collapse the economy)
Jesus.
You guys have all gone completely nuts.
There is a two week gap between actions being taken and showing up in statistics of new cases.
You're staring at the numbers today... and seeing what happened two weeks ago. This means there are a lot more people sick that you realise (probably about three more doublings to go...), but after that, as happened in China, the number of new cases starts to drop pretty quickly.
Now, we'll go through it again, as a series of mini spikes. But at least we'll know what we're doing then.
Man up PBers.
Nah. While you were spending weeks thinking hard about which non entity was going to beat which other non entity in the Democrats bullshit, we were going deep into THE black swan of the last 70 years.
You've now focused your gaze here, spent a couple of days thinking about it and think you've got it all figured out based on one graph? Lol erm no.
We'll see soon enough. If Italy's new case number starts to decline next week then we'll know lockdowns work. (Hint: they do.)
This doesn't solve the problem - as I've said multiple times - of how we remove restrictions without restarting the issue. But it will demonstrate how to stop the number spiralling out of control.
And, by the way, I've written plenty of times about how serious this is. But I've pegged the death toll as a max of 80-100k, not a million. If anything, I'm probably slightly more optimistic now than I was a week ago.
Lol. I know lock downs work. I knew that 5 weeks ago. The problem is that the society we all live in is then DONE. Have you actually seen any of the experienced life behind the lock down in Italy or China? It involves not doing anything with a bit of welding people into their homes mixed in. For TWO YEARS.
China is relaxing the lockdowns already. After six weeks. Not two years.
I suggest you read the report by the Imperial team and put down the fag packet.
We will see what happens when China opens up again. (Hint: it will come back and the blow torches will be out again)
I have read it.
And it doesn't talk about two years with the UK being in total lockdown. It talks about some measures remaining in place for two years.
Hand washing and home working will be given a permanent boost.
Lots of people now working at home will find they prefer it and won’t go back to 9-5 in offices. However, I expect many will organise communal days a couple of days a week. A 3 days home / 2 office mix is probably best, WFH every single day is probably a bit much, although we will all do it for now.
I've suggested where I work that we all go to full flexitime.
Very wise. We did that a few weeks ago (nothing to do with the virus) and it has proved quite popular among the younger people in the office. I barely used it (flexing only 30 mins a day max) but that’s because my schedule is locked by the school run. I can see 8am starts and 4pm finishes being very popular in the summer.
One way to not feel so gloomy is to imagine you were a Syrian trapped in a hell hole of bombings, gas attacks, ISIS control, no home, no food, no society, for the last decade, then being offered the chance of a new life in the uk as long as you agreed to sit in a nice home with all the tv, internet and movies you could ask for, a back garden with pleasant weather plus weekly food deliveries you can easily afford (inc alcohol) for up to three spring summer months
Or one of my good friends told today that his bowel cancer is inoperable.
In the mid 90s my dad was told he only had 6 months to live.
This guy's young though, much younger than me. He's been told 6 months with chemo. Lucky the NHS is going to be quiet, eh?
That's awful. I'm so sorry.
The fragility of life has never been so palpable.
I find myself contemplating, these days, the extinction of half my immediate family: literally.
Old parents, compromised relatives, etc. This fucking bug could scythe through those I know and love. It's horrific. My wife, who has been very stoical (especially at age 24) had a little weep tonight. I don't blame her. Her family is equally vulnerable.
But we then sang a song on her ukuelele, and swapped favourite memes. And laughed. Hey ho.
I guess she's particularly concerned about her elderly husband.
If the ukuelele is coming out then truly we are at the end of days.
It is completely horrifying. Lockdown is almost certain in the autumn, and I suppose next spring as well. The economy is going to be absolute toast.
If people didn't believe it before, it is war.
I just read it
Basically, if we want to save half a million lives, we have to transform society, starting NOW (and possibly collapse the economy)
Jesus.
You guys have all gone completely nuts.
There is a two week gap between actions being taken and showing up in statistics of new cases.
You're staring at the numbers today... and seeing what happened two weeks ago. This means there are a lot more people sick that you realise (probably about three more doublings to go...), but after that, as happened in China, the number of new cases starts to drop pretty quickly.
Now, we'll go through it again, as a series of mini spikes. But at least we'll know what we're doing then.
Man up PBers.
Nah. While you were spending weeks thinking hard about which non entity was going to beat which other non entity in the Democrats bullshit, we were going deep into THE black swan of the last 70 years.
You've now focused your gaze here, spent a couple of days thinking about it and think you've got it all figured out based on one graph? Lol erm no.
We'll see soon enough. If Italy's new case number starts to decline next week then we'll know lockdowns work. (Hint: they do.)
This doesn't solve the problem - as I've said multiple times - of how we remove restrictions without restarting the issue. But it will demonstrate how to stop the number spiralling out of control.
And, by the way, I've written plenty of times about how serious this is. But I've pegged the death toll as a max of 80-100k, not a million. If anything, I'm probably slightly more optimistic now than I was a week ago.
Lol. I know lock downs work. I knew that 5 weeks ago. The problem is that the society we all live in is then DONE. Have you actually seen any of the experienced life behind the lock down in Italy or China? It involves not doing anything with a bit of welding people into their homes mixed in. For TWO YEARS.
China is relaxing the lockdowns already. After six weeks. Not two years.
Because they are desperate to kickstart the economy, because the CCP knows that its survival likely depends on GDP growth of 4%+.
I hope the Chinese prove me wrong. But I fear a return of this wretched bug, there, as they try to reopen, certainly by next winter. Which is just seven months away.
Incidentally., the Olympics are surely finished. Too many athletes will be ill, or vulnerable. They should accept it now.
Of course it going to come back!
But it's not coming back at 5,000 infections per day. It'll come back growing from a low level, and then they'll stamp on it again in two months or so.
And because they'll know what's coming, and because they have better testing now, and because they won't remove all the restrictions at once, the growth will likely come back at a (initally at first) much slower pace.
They'll have a series of bumps, perhaps two or three months apart. And each time, they'll be better able to deal with it.
It'll be extremely unpleasant. But it won't be terminal.
Who has said it is terminal?
Nobody. WW2 wasn't terminal. But it fundamentally changed the world and had huge unforeseen consequences which potentially were worse.
It's notable that the 1918 flu outbreak is estimated to have killed up to 100 million people at a time when world population was 1.9 billion, which would be 5%, yet it isn't that well-known about outside people interested in history.
1919 was a pretty horrible year with the effects of the Great War still continuing, the Spanish flu, badly damaged economies and in the USA:
Can't be arsed to read through the 1,000+ posts but I assume Big G got offended at some point and HYUFD fellated Johnson.
Here's the Dead Pool list. Send me a message if I missed anyone. Some pretty poor form on display from individuals who didn't abide by the code of honour of the game...
It is completely horrifying. Lockdown is almost certain in the autumn, and I suppose next spring as well. The economy is going to be absolute toast.
If people didn't believe it before, it is war.
I just read it
Basically, if we want to save half a million lives, we have to transform society, starting NOW (and possibly collapse the economy)
Jesus.
You guys have all gone completely nuts.
There is a two week gap between actions being taken and showing up in statistics of new cases.
You're staring at the numbers today... and seeing what happened two weeks ago. This means there are a lot more people sick that you realise (probably about three more doublings to go...), but after that, as happened in China, the number of new cases starts to drop pretty quickly.
Now, we'll go through it again, as a series of mini spikes. But at least we'll know what we're doing then.
Man up PBers.
Nah. While you were spending weeks thinking hard about which non entity was going to beat which other non entity in the Democrats bullshit, we were going deep into THE black swan of the last 70 years.
You've now focused your gaze here, spent a couple of days thinking about it and think you've got it all figured out based on one graph? Lol erm no.
We'll see soon enough. If Italy's new case number starts to decline next week then we'll know lockdowns work. (Hint: they do.)
This doesn't solve the problem - as I've said multiple times - of how we remove restrictions without restarting the issue. But it will demonstrate how to stop the number spiralling out of control.
And, by the way, I've written plenty of times about how serious this is. But I've pegged the death toll as a max of 80-100k, not a million. If anything, I'm probably slightly more optimistic now than I was a week ago.
Lol. I know lock downs work. I knew that 5 weeks ago. The problem is that the society we all live in is then DONE. Have you actually seen any of the experienced life behind the lock down in Italy or China? It involves not doing anything with a bit of welding people into their homes mixed in. For TWO YEARS.
China is relaxing the lockdowns already. After six weeks. Not two years.
I suggest you read the report by the Imperial team and put down the fag packet.
We will see what happens when China opens up again. (Hint: it will come back and the blow torches will be out again)
I have read it.
And it doesn't talk about two years with the UK being in total lockdown. It talks about some measures remaining in place for two years.
Hand washing and home working will be given a permanent boost.
Lots of people now working at home will find they prefer it and won’t go back to 9-5 in offices. However, I expect many will organise communal days a couple of days a week. A 3 days home / 2 office mix is probably best, WFH every single day is probably a bit much, although we will all do it for now.
Welcome to the club everybody...
In all seriousness, I think it would be a very positive thing. For many commuting 2-3hrs a day and they miss out on valuable family time.
It is completely horrifying. Lockdown is almost certain in the autumn, and I suppose next spring as well. The economy is going to be absolute toast.
If people didn't believe it before, it is war.
I just read it
Basically, if we want to save half a million lives, we have to transform society, starting NOW (and possibly collapse the economy)
Jesus.
You guys have all gone completely nuts.
There is a two week gap between actions being taken and showing up in statistics of new cases.
You're staring at the numbers today... and seeing what happened two weeks ago. This means there are a lot more people sick that you realise (probably about three more doublings to go...), but after that, as happened in China, the number of new cases starts to drop pretty quickly.
Now, we'll go through it again, as a series of mini spikes. But at least we'll know what we're doing then.
Man up PBers.
Nah. While you were spending weeks thinking hard about which non entity was going to beat which other non entity in the Democrats bullshit, we were going deep into THE black swan of the last 70 years.
You've now focused your gaze here, spent a couple of days thinking about it and think you've got it all figured out based on one graph? Lol erm no.
We'll see soon enough. If Italy's new case number starts to decline next week then we'll know lockdowns work. (Hint: they do.)
This doesn't solve the problem - as I've said multiple times - of how we remove restrictions without restarting the issue. But it will demonstrate how to stop the number spiralling out of control.
And, by the way, I've written plenty of times about how serious this is. But I've pegged the death toll as a max of 80-100k, not a million. If anything, I'm probably slightly more optimistic now than I was a week ago.
Lol. I know lock downs work. I knew that 5 weeks ago. The problem is that the society we all live in is then DONE. Have you actually seen any of the experienced life behind the lock down in Italy or China? It involves not doing anything with a bit of welding people into their homes mixed in. For TWO YEARS.
China is relaxing the lockdowns already. After six weeks. Not two years.
I suggest you read the report by the Imperial team and put down the fag packet.
We will see what happens when China opens up again. (Hint: it will come back and the blow torches will be out again)
I have read it.
And it doesn't talk about two years with the UK being in total lockdown. It talks about some measures remaining in place for two years.
Hand washing and home working will be given a permanent boost.
Lots of people now working at home will find they prefer it and won’t go back to 9-5 in offices. However, I expect many will organise communal days a couple of days a week. A 3 days home / 2 office mix is probably best, WFH every single day is probably a bit much, although we will all do it for now.
Welcome to the club everybody...
In all seriousness, I think it would be a very positive thing. For many commuting 2-3hrs a day and they miss out on valuable family time.
In all seriousness, I used to love commuting time. I could put my headphone on and read a book. Bliss.
I am getting seriously pissed off with the Left questioning the response. It is all about the fact that they lost in Dec 2019 and they know, just know, that Johnson is an evil person.
Do you think Johnson will pause, for even a second, to take all of the credit if this somehow works out fine?
He's going to reap the political rewards so he can take all the shit that's being deservedly flung at him now.
It is completely horrifying. Lockdown is almost certain in the autumn, and I suppose next spring as well. The economy is going to be absolute toast.
If people didn't believe it before, it is war.
I just read it
Basically, if we want to save half a million lives, we have to transform society, starting NOW (and possibly collapse the economy)
Jesus.
You guys have all gone completely nuts.
There is a two week gap between actions being taken and showing up in statistics of new cases.
You're staring at the numbers today... and seeing what happened two weeks ago. This means there are a lot more people sick that you realise (probably about three more doublings to go...), but after that, as happened in China, the number of new cases starts to drop pretty quickly.
Now, we'll go through it again, as a series of mini spikes. But at least we'll know what we're doing then.
Man up PBers.
Nah. While you were spending weeks thinking hard about which non entity was going to beat which other non entity in the Democrats bullshit, we were going deep into THE black swan of the last 70 years.
You've now focused your gaze here, spent a couple of days thinking about it and think you've got it all figured out based on one graph? Lol erm no.
We'll see soon enough. If Italy's new case number starts to decline next week then we'll know lockdowns work. (Hint: they do.)
This doesn't solve the problem - as I've said multiple times - of how we remove restrictions without restarting the issue. But it will demonstrate how to stop the number spiralling out of control.
And, by the way, I've written plenty of times about how serious this is. But I've pegged the death toll as a max of 80-100k, not a million. If anything, I'm probably slightly more optimistic now than I was a week ago.
Lol. I know lock downs work. I knew that 5 weeks ago. The problem is that the society we all live in is then DONE. Have you actually seen any of the experienced life behind the lock down in Italy or China? It involves not doing anything with a bit of welding people into their homes mixed in. For TWO YEARS.
China is relaxing the lockdowns already. After six weeks. Not two years.
I suggest you read the report by the Imperial team and put down the fag packet.
We will see what happens when China opens up again. (Hint: it will come back and the blow torches will be out again)
I have read it.
And it doesn't talk about two years with the UK being in total lockdown. It talks about some measures remaining in place for two years.
Hand washing and home working will be given a permanent boost.
Lots of people now working at home will find they prefer it and won’t go back to 9-5 in offices. However, I expect many will organise communal days a couple of days a week. A 3 days home / 2 office mix is probably best, WFH every single day is probably a bit much, although we will all do it for now.
Welcome to the club everybody...
In all seriousness, I think it would be a very positive thing. For many commuting 2-3hrs a day and they miss out on valuable family time.
In all seriousness, I used to love commuting time. I could put my headphone on and read a book. Bliss.
And your kids didn't have to put up with your cooking so often...winning all round.
One way to not feel so gloomy is to imagine you were a Syrian trapped in a hell hole of bombings, gas attacks, ISIS control, no home, no food, no society, for the last decade, then being offered the chance of a new life in the uk as long as you agreed to sit in a nice home with all the tv, internet and movies you could ask for, a back garden with pleasant weather plus weekly food deliveries you can easily afford (inc alcohol) for up to three spring summer months
Or one of my good friends told today that his bowel cancer is inoperable.
In the mid 90s my dad was told he only had 6 months to live.
This guy's young though, much younger than me. He's been told 6 months with chemo. Lucky the NHS is going to be quiet, eh?
That's awful. I'm so sorry.
The fragility of life has never been so palpable.
I find myself contemplating, these days, the extinction of half my immediate family: literally.
Old parents, compromised relatives, etc. This fucking bug could scythe through those I know and love. It's horrific. My wife, who has been very stoical (especially at age 24) had a little weep tonight. I don't blame her. Her family is equally vulnerable.
But we then sang a song on her ukuelele, and swapped favourite memes. And laughed. Hey ho.
I guess she's particularly concerned about her elderly husband.
Actually, she's not. She thinks I drink so much I am permanently preserved, like some kind of pickled gherkin,
Her granny, her pregnant best friend, her cancer-coping step mum, she's less confident.
Every one of us will likely know or love 3 or 5 or 7 people who could be poleaxed by this.
Fuck Corona.
My Dad is 73, asthmatic, prone to chest infections, just finished chemotherapy and last December had sepsis. my girlfriend and I took the baby for a walk this afternoon, and when we came back he was outside the house waiting to give his grandson, whom he dotes on, a hug, gave my gf a kiss and me too. Well that makes him a bad man to some, but it’s probably typical of the behaviour outside the PB bubble. He also dropped off some hand sanitizer and anti bac soap my mum got from her job at Boots, which she won’t give up. Madness on paper, but that’s real life
What do they think Corbyn would do? We'd have the same problem, the same initial plan, the same advice, and the same data coming in. Would it lead to a different result? I suspect not.
Can't be arsed to read through the 1,000+ posts but I assume Big G got offended at some point and HYUFD fellated Johnson.
Here's the Dead Pool list. Send me a message if I missed anyone. Some pretty poor form on display from individuals who didn't abide by the code of honour of the game...
What do they think Corbyn would do? We'd have the same problem, the same initial plan, the same advice, and the same data coming in. Would it lead to a different result? I suspect not.
You think Jezza would listen to the science guys? No, he would organise a virtual vote of Momentum activists to see what the answer was. With Derek Hatton leading on the expertise advice side.
Vaguely amusing snippet - I was waiting to be picked up by a Lynx in NI with my multiple and it came in right above us.
At least the gearbox didn't seize causing it crash on top of you. The gearbox had a theoretical run dry time of 30 mins. In practice it was about 1 second.
The Lynx was interesting in that it was markedly inferior, in almost every way, to the helicopter that we flew to prepare us for flying the Lynx - the Bell 412EP.
The govt are in serious danger of ballsing this up. The messaging is all over the place this evening.
You say that every night.
No I haven’t. I praised Boris last time. Tonight is very muddy.
It may well be to some, but the main guidelines have been set out and the daily conferences will clarify contentious issues as the media ask the questions
Not closing the schools was a lose/lose gamble.....they are going close them next week, maybe even this week....and get blamed for not doing so earlier....
Anyway....advice to my pbCOMers...stolen from Fox last night...
Stay safe....try to eat well, sleep well, don't drink too much, and get some exercise...these will help protect you from what is coming....
Good night.
Schools is probably tomorrow’s u turn. It’s clear government want to hang on till Easter holidays but the heads and teachers are revolting.
More that students are being taken out at a hell of a rate. Over 10% absent in mine (usually 1%), I’ve heard of some with 30%. Tomorrow the expectation is that will double and then (oh, the irony) double again the day after. Overseas students are already trying to get the last plane (the Chinese/Hong Kongian/Singaporeans being glad they’re escaping to somewhere safer).
The schools gambit has failed, parents have twigged that they, and their children, were being used as guinea pigs.
The govt are in serious danger of ballsing this up. The messaging is all over the place this evening.
You say that every night.
No I haven’t. I praised Boris last time. Tonight is very muddy.
It may well be to some, but the main guidelines have been set out and the daily conferences will clarify contentious issues as the media ask the questions
Not closing the schools was a lose/lose gamble.....they are going close them next week, maybe even this week....and get blamed for not doing so earlier....
Anyway....advice to my pbCOMers...stolen from Fox last night...
Stay safe....try to eat well, sleep well, don't drink too much, and get some exercise...these will help protect you from what is coming....
Good night.
Schools is probably tomorrow’s u turn. It’s clear government want to hang on till Easter holidays but the heads and teachers are revolting.
More that students are being taken out at a hell of a rate. Over 10% absent in mine (usually 1%), I’ve heard of some with 30%. Tomorrow the expectation is that will double and then (oh, the irony) double again the day after. Overseas students are already trying to get the last plane (the Chinese/Hong Kongian/Singaporeans being glad they’re escaping to somewhere safer).
The schools gambit has failed, parents have twigged that they, and their children, were being used as guinea pigs.
The govt are in serious danger of ballsing this up. The messaging is all over the place this evening.
You say that every night.
No I haven’t. I praised Boris last time. Tonight is very muddy.
It may well be to some, but the main guidelines have been set out and the daily conferences will clarify contentious issues as the media ask the questions
Not closing the schools was a lose/lose gamble.....they are going close them next week, maybe even this week....and get blamed for not doing so earlier....
Anyway....advice to my pbCOMers...stolen from Fox last night...
Stay safe....try to eat well, sleep well, don't drink too much, and get some exercise...these will help protect you from what is coming....
Good night.
Schools is probably tomorrow’s u turn. It’s clear government want to hang on till Easter holidays but the heads and teachers are revolting.
More that students are being taken out at a hell of a rate. Over 10% absent in mine (usually 1%), I’ve heard of some with 30%. Tomorrow the expectation is that will double and then (oh, the irony) double again the day after. Overseas students are already trying to get the last plane (the Chinese/Hong Kongian/Singaporeans being glad they’re escaping to somewhere safer).
The schools gambit has failed, parents have twigged that they, and their children, were being used as guinea pigs.
And how many are then going to self-isolate.
This is what the Imperial report basically laid out. You will have to get kids to self-isolate for 4 months. I know kids love Fortnite and Tik Tok, but that is a very very long time without ever seeing their mates.
The govt are in serious danger of ballsing this up. The messaging is all over the place this evening.
You say that every night.
No I haven’t. I praised Boris last time. Tonight is very muddy.
It may well be to some, but the main guidelines have been set out and the daily conferences will clarify contentious issues as the media ask the questions
Not closing the schools was a lose/lose gamble.....they are going close them next week, maybe even this week....and get blamed for not doing so earlier....
Anyway....advice to my pbCOMers...stolen from Fox last night...
Stay safe....try to eat well, sleep well, don't drink too much, and get some exercise...these will help protect you from what is coming....
Good night.
Schools is probably tomorrow’s u turn. It’s clear government want to hang on till Easter holidays but the heads and teachers are revolting.
More that students are being taken out at a hell of a rate. Over 10% absent in mine (usually 1%), I’ve heard of some with 30%. Tomorrow the expectation is that will double and then (oh, the irony) double again the day after. Overseas students are already trying to get the last plane (the Chinese/Hong Kongian/Singaporeans being glad they’re escaping to somewhere safer).
The schools gambit has failed, parents have twigged that they, and their children, were being used as guinea pigs.
And how many are then going to self-isolate.
This is what the Imperial report basically laid out. You will have to get kids to self-isolate for 4 months. I know kids love Fortnite and Tik Tok, but that is a very very long time without ever seeing their mates.
Kids? We're now going to call them plague bearers.
The govt are in serious danger of ballsing this up. The messaging is all over the place this evening.
You say that every night.
No I haven’t. I praised Boris last time. Tonight is very muddy.
It may well be to some, but the main guidelines have been set out and the daily conferences will clarify contentious issues as the media ask the questions
Not closing the schools was a lose/lose gamble.....they are going close them next week, maybe even this week....and get blamed for not doing so earlier....
Anyway....advice to my pbCOMers...stolen from Fox last night...
Stay safe....try to eat well, sleep well, don't drink too much, and get some exercise...these will help protect you from what is coming....
Good night.
Schools is probably tomorrow’s u turn. It’s clear government want to hang on till Easter holidays but the heads and teachers are revolting.
More that students are being taken out at a hell of a rate. Over 10% absent in mine (usually 1%), I’ve heard of some with 30%. Tomorrow the expectation is that will double and then (oh, the irony) double again the day after. Overseas students are already trying to get the last plane (the Chinese/Hong Kongian/Singaporeans being glad they’re escaping to somewhere safer).
The schools gambit has failed, parents have twigged that they, and their children, were being used as guinea pigs.
And how many are then going to self-isolate.
If they don’t then they’ve only got themselves to blame. They have the choice now.
The govt are in serious danger of ballsing this up. The messaging is all over the place this evening.
You say that every night.
No I haven’t. I praised Boris last time. Tonight is very muddy.
It may well be to some, but the main guidelines have been set out and the daily conferences will clarify contentious issues as the media ask the questions
Not closing the schools was a lose/lose gamble.....they are going close them next week, maybe even this week....and get blamed for not doing so earlier....
Anyway....advice to my pbCOMers...stolen from Fox last night...
Stay safe....try to eat well, sleep well, don't drink too much, and get some exercise...these will help protect you from what is coming....
Good night.
Schools is probably tomorrow’s u turn. It’s clear government want to hang on till Easter holidays but the heads and teachers are revolting.
More that students are being taken out at a hell of a rate. Over 10% absent in mine (usually 1%), I’ve heard of some with 30%. Tomorrow the expectation is that will double and then (oh, the irony) double again the day after. Overseas students are already trying to get the last plane (the Chinese/Hong Kongian/Singaporeans being glad they’re escaping to somewhere safer).
The schools gambit has failed, parents have twigged that they, and their children, were being used as guinea pigs.
And how many are then going to self-isolate.
As with anyone, if they don’t then they’ve only got themselves to blame. They have the choice now.
The govt are in serious danger of ballsing this up. The messaging is all over the place this evening.
You say that every night.
No I haven’t. I praised Boris last time. Tonight is very muddy.
It may well be to some, but the main guidelines have been set out and the daily conferences will clarify contentious issues as the media ask the questions
Not closing the schools was a lose/lose gamble.....they are going close them next week, maybe even this week....and get blamed for not doing so earlier....
Anyway....advice to my pbCOMers...stolen from Fox last night...
Stay safe....try to eat well, sleep well, don't drink too much, and get some exercise...these will help protect you from what is coming....
Good night.
Schools is probably tomorrow’s u turn. It’s clear government want to hang on till Easter holidays but the heads and teachers are revolting.
More that students are being taken out at a hell of a rate. Over 10% absent in mine (usually 1%), I’ve heard of some with 30%. Tomorrow the expectation is that will double and then (oh, the irony) double again the day after. Overseas students are already trying to get the last plane (the Chinese/Hong Kongian/Singaporeans being glad they’re escaping to somewhere safer).
The schools gambit has failed, parents have twigged that they, and their children, were being used as guinea pigs.
And how many are then going to self-isolate.
As with anyone, if they don’t then they’ve only got themselves to blame. They have the choice now.
Except they face zero consequences.
Making their parents, siblings etc seriously ill or even kill them? Pretty big stakes there.
The govt are in serious danger of ballsing this up. The messaging is all over the place this evening.
You say that every night.
No I haven’t. I praised Boris last time. Tonight is very muddy.
It may well be to some, but the main guidelines have been set out and the daily conferences will clarify contentious issues as the media ask the questions
Not closing the schools was a lose/lose gamble.....they are going close them next week, maybe even this week....and get blamed for not doing so earlier....
Anyway....advice to my pbCOMers...stolen from Fox last night...
Stay safe....try to eat well, sleep well, don't drink too much, and get some exercise...these will help protect you from what is coming....
Good night.
Schools is probably tomorrow’s u turn. It’s clear government want to hang on till Easter holidays but the heads and teachers are revolting.
More that students are being taken out at a hell of a rate. Over 10% absent in mine (usually 1%), I’ve heard of some with 30%. Tomorrow the expectation is that will double and then (oh, the irony) double again the day after. Overseas students are already trying to get the last plane (the Chinese/Hong Kongian/Singaporeans being glad they’re escaping to somewhere safer).
The schools gambit has failed, parents have twigged that they, and their children, were being used as guinea pigs.
And how many are then going to self-isolate.
As with anyone, if they don’t then they’ve only got themselves to blame. They have the choice now.
Except they face zero consequences.
Making their parents, siblings etc seriously ill or even kill them? Pretty big stakes there.
Do all of them appreciate that? And it's not just their families they would be putting at risk.
The govt are in serious danger of ballsing this up. The messaging is all over the place this evening.
You say that every night.
No I haven’t. I praised Boris last time. Tonight is very muddy.
It may well be to some, but the main guidelines have been set out and the daily conferences will clarify contentious issues as the media ask the questions
Not closing the schools was a lose/lose gamble.....they are going close them next week, maybe even this week....and get blamed for not doing so earlier....
Anyway....advice to my pbCOMers...stolen from Fox last night...
Stay safe....try to eat well, sleep well, don't drink too much, and get some exercise...these will help protect you from what is coming....
Good night.
Schools is probably tomorrow’s u turn. It’s clear government want to hang on till Easter holidays but the heads and teachers are revolting.
More that students are being taken out at a hell of a rate. Over 10% absent in mine (usually 1%), I’ve heard of some with 30%. Tomorrow the expectation is that will double and then (oh, the irony) double again the day after. Overseas students are already trying to get the last plane (the Chinese/Hong Kongian/Singaporeans being glad they’re escaping to somewhere safer).
The schools gambit has failed, parents have twigged that they, and their children, were being used as guinea pigs.
And how many are then going to self-isolate.
As with anyone, if they don’t then they’ve only got themselves to blame. They have the choice now.
Except they face zero consequences.
Making their parents, siblings etc seriously ill or even kill them? Pretty big stakes there.
Lots of people are stupid and lots of people are selfish.
The govt are in serious danger of ballsing this up. The messaging is all over the place this evening.
You say that every night.
No I haven’t. I praised Boris last time. Tonight is very muddy.
It may well be to some, but the main guidelines have been set out and the daily conferences will clarify contentious issues as the media ask the questions
Not closing the schools was a lose/lose gamble.....they are going close them next week, maybe even this week....and get blamed for not doing so earlier....
Anyway....advice to my pbCOMers...stolen from Fox last night...
Stay safe....try to eat well, sleep well, don't drink too much, and get some exercise...these will help protect you from what is coming....
Good night.
Schools is probably tomorrow’s u turn. It’s clear government want to hang on till Easter holidays but the heads and teachers are revolting.
More that students are being taken out at a hell of a rate. Over 10% absent in mine (usually 1%), I’ve heard of some with 30%. Tomorrow the expectation is that will double and then (oh, the irony) double again the day after. Overseas students are already trying to get the last plane (the Chinese/Hong Kongian/Singaporeans being glad they’re escaping to somewhere safer).
The schools gambit has failed, parents have twigged that they, and their children, were being used as guinea pigs.
And how many are then going to self-isolate.
As with anyone, if they don’t then they’ve only got themselves to blame. They have the choice now.
Except they face zero consequences.
Making their parents, siblings etc seriously ill or even kill them? Pretty big stakes there.
Do all of them appreciate that? And it's not just their families they would be putting at risk.
Can’t we just rebrand it as a “4 month lie in” for them?
The govt are in serious danger of ballsing this up. The messaging is all over the place this evening.
You say that every night.
No I haven’t. I praised Boris last time. Tonight is very muddy.
It may well be to some, but the main guidelines have been set out and the daily conferences will clarify contentious issues as the media ask the questions
Not closing the schools was a lose/lose gamble.....they are going close them next week, maybe even this week....and get blamed for not doing so earlier....
Anyway....advice to my pbCOMers...stolen from Fox last night...
Stay safe....try to eat well, sleep well, don't drink too much, and get some exercise...these will help protect you from what is coming....
Good night.
Schools is probably tomorrow’s u turn. It’s clear government want to hang on till Easter holidays but the heads and teachers are revolting.
More that students are being taken out at a hell of a rate. Over 10% absent in mine (usually 1%), I’ve heard of some with 30%. Tomorrow the expectation is that will double and then (oh, the irony) double again the day after. Overseas students are already trying to get the last plane (the Chinese/Hong Kongian/Singaporeans being glad they’re escaping to somewhere safer).
The schools gambit has failed, parents have twigged that they, and their children, were being used as guinea pigs.
And how many are then going to self-isolate.
As with anyone, if they don’t then they’ve only got themselves to blame. They have the choice now.
Except they face zero consequences.
Making their parents, siblings etc seriously ill or even kill them? Pretty big stakes there.
Do all of them appreciate that? And it's not just their families they would be putting at risk.
Well it’s up to their families to enforce it. A bit of parental responsibility would be most welcome at this juncture.
Comments
If I've got it now, it seems there is going to be quite an abrupt and long suppression lockdown for vulnerable people, and widespread social distancing. This change of plan is because mitigation is no longer considered viable given the Italian experience. If the supression works we move to an ON/OFF supression approach until a vaccine is available.
That said the paper does clearly raise the issue of the cost of this, socially and economically, and whether or not it can be sustained for a long period of time.
So we still need that iceberg, and a vaccine ASAP.
Is all that about right?
Nobody. WW2 wasn't terminal. But it fundamentally changed the world and had huge unforeseen consequences which potentially were worse.
People have got the rest of this week to get things sorted, food stockpiled etc.
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1239680856265981957?s=20
Erm. Because if you go to the pub then you are adding another layer of potential to catch the virus over and above your kids.
It seems people want a solution that is not about reducing the odds but is about zero risk.
That means locking yourself in a cellar for 18 months.
In all seriousness, I think it would be a very positive thing. For many commuting 2-3hrs a day and they miss out on valuable family time.
It's also hit me tonight that should both my parents and her get this, then there's a 5%ish chance that they all succumb given that they're in high risk groups. I hope that Mr Sunak provides enough helicopter money for me to buy a welder tomorrow!
Here's the Dead Pool list. Send me a message if I missed anyone. Some pretty poor form on display from individuals who didn't abide by the code of honour of the game...
@Dura_Ace David Mitchell
@tlg86 Jeremy Clarkson
@MarqueeMark Polly Toynbee
@SandyRentool Simon Calder
@malcolmg Philip Schofield
@kinabula The Queen
@Garethofthevale2 Michael Heseltine
@Philip_Thompson S.K. Tremayne
@RochdalePioneers George R.R. Martin
@Foss Prince Philip
@Benpointer Donald Trump
@Endillion David Attenborough
@nichomar Anne Widdicombe
@Topping Cordelia Gummer
@AramintaMoonbeamQC Jeremy Corbyn
@Beibheirli_C Clint Eastwood
@Richard_Tyndall Prince Charles
@williamglenn Barry Manilow
@felix Owen Jones
@eristdoof Keith Richards
@paulyork64 Paul Gascoigne
@OldKingCole Dennis Skinner
@CarlottaVance Duchess of Cornwall
@Stocky Michael Palin
@Pro_Rata Kenneth Clarke
@MrEd Gwyneth Paltrow
@Paristonda Boris Johnson
@TrèsDifficile Marine Le Pen
@Martin_Kinsella Mahmoud Ahmedinajad
@Fenster Sean Connery
@JohnO Elton John
@Theuniondivvie Olivia de Havilland
@Chameleon Dick Van Dyke
@rottenborough Joe Biden
@LucyJones Piers Morgan
@twistedfirestopper3 Jean Marie Le Pen
@RandallFlagg Stephen King
@GIN1138 Nigel Farage
@ukpaul Alex Jones
@MaxPB Ruth Bader Ginsburg
God I can't even start to imagine Trump reaction if that happened.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hy3a6PvIcxI
He's going to reap the political rewards so he can take all the shit that's being deservedly flung at him now.
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1239650018832891905?s=20
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1239646763222474754?s=20
But the selfish tw@t is endangering other people. Oh wait, he has also spent his life befriending terrorists, so no change there then either.
The "its just like flu" brigade appears to have turned into the "but I am a fit and healthy oldie" so it won't affect me.
Get in the damn house and stay out of the way.
Are obscure centenarians allowed if they have a wikipedia page ?
If not then I'll go for Prunella Scales.
The man is a ****
The Lynx was interesting in that it was markedly inferior, in almost every way, to the helicopter that we flew to prepare us for flying the Lynx - the Bell 412EP.
Total Lockdown.
How will we get it?
Mass rally at Conference Hall, London. Comrades, there are activists from all over the UK prepared to come to make their point.
The schools gambit has failed, parents have twigged that they, and their children, were being used as guinea pigs.
Why fighting the coronavirus depends on you
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dSQztKXR6k0