@JM1 I have my doubts about that surge ICU capacity. Without being able to test staff, we will run short of crew very quickly. All the PPC will be gone within days, and without resupply the staff will be horribly exposed.
Foxy can you explain this new advice about pregnant women?
As you and I know, until this moment the received wisdom has been: it doesn't effect them (unlike normal flu).
Is this just a new cautiousness, or is there new evidence that corona is dangerous to pregnant women?
I'm literally asking for a friend. My wife's best friend is 4 months pregnant. And scared.
Yes I'd like to know too, my partner is 8 months pregnant and in hospital and I'm going to bring her home tomorrow.
Whitty said this afternoon thus is precautionary only, not because we know anything
"The group of people who we would want to take this advice particularly seriously are older people above 70, people who in adult life would normally be advised to have the flu vaccination, so these are people with chronic diseases such as chronic heart disease or chronic kidney disease, and also - as a precautionary measure because we are early in our understanding and we want to be sure - women who are pregnant."
The govt are in serious danger of ballsing this up. The messaging is all over the place this evening.
I think they are holding back and hesitating because if they tell everyone to just hide under the duvet from tomorrow, then it will be too early.
As I keep saying, those who are screaming for everyone to be in lockdown have no idea of the mental effects of this.
Humans are social animals. Months of isolation will be a disaster.
Tonight there have been three different lines on whether healthy over 70s should stay at home for 12 weeks. It was clear this afternoon that they should, it is not clear now. It’s a mess.
It is clear:
"How to avoid catching and spreading coronavirus (social distancing) Everyone should do what they can to stop coronavirus spreading.
It is particularly important for people who:
are 70 or over have a long-term condition are pregnant have a weakened immune system Do wash your hands with soap and water often – do this for at least 20 seconds
always wash your hands when you get home or into work
use hand sanitiser gel if soap and water are not available
cover your mouth and nose with a tissue or your sleeve (not your hands) when you cough or sneeze
put used tissues in the bin immediately and wash your hands afterwards
avoid close contact with people who have symptoms of coronavirus
only travel on public transport if you need to
work from home, if you can
avoid social activities, such as going to pubs, restaurants, theatres and cinemas
avoid events with large groups of people
use phone, online services, or apps to contact your GP surgery or other NHS services"
But that is softer than the 12 week lockdown that Bozo stated this afternoon.
Because that was something that will be introduced in the future, not immediately.
So. Let's do some back of the fag packet calculations. Let's assume that there are actually 50,000 people infected in the UK today. Let's assume that we'll see three more double-ings before shut down has an impact.
That means we go 50k -> 100k -> 200k ->400k. Let's then assume that even as the daily numbers start declining, it still doubles this iteration. That means that this wave sees 800k infected.
And let's assume I'm a bit optimistic, and it actually gets to 1,000,000 cases.
Not an unreasonable estimate.
Now, let's assume a 2.5% mortality rate. That's 25,000 deaths from infections that happen between now and end May.
The numbers drop off sharply in late April and May (because lockdowns). We then relax the controls, a bit at a time, maybe regionally, while encouraging people to be a bit more vigilant than normal, and implementing a very intensive testing regime. And we also stand ready to slam the breaks on again in the event of numbers going above a certain level.
The lesson Japan and South Korea is that done properly, you can keep infections below about 50/day doing this.
Now, it probably comes back in the Autumn. But we'll be better prepared next time. CV-19 (part two) will not involve us (or anyone else) being taken by surprise.
Here's the thing. Lockdowns work. They worked in Hubei. They will work in Italy and they will work in the UK.
That's why forecasts of a million dead are off. Because they forget that... lockdowns work.
Watch Italy. New cases are going to start coming down reasonably quickly, reasonably soon.
My parents are 89 and 90 - they have been self isolating to avoid infection since last Friday. Just had an email from my Dad saying that, if they are infected and it becomes serious enough to require hospitalisation, they have decided to refuse and die at home on the basis that younger people will need the facilities and it would be better for society. Bloody hell. BTW they still think younger generations should be ashamed of themselves for showing lack of backbone.
I don't want to be cruel...but they will not be given that choice.....
I don't quite see your point of saying the "younger generations should be ashamed of themselves"...it presents your parents in a very poor light to be honest
Tbh I don't understand what that part of the post was relating to. In what way have they not shown backbone?
It was a nasty post..... my Italian mother in law (89 years old) in Italy is terrified...she has rung us up a few times tonight, and every time we can hear sirens in the background.....she knows if she gets sick, she'll die at home...that is a given.....
My mother in law would never dream of saying young people should be ashamed of themselves....it's sickening that someone would post something like that to alienate the old from the young (at this time)...social media for you...sometimes it's fucking horrible....
I have relatives in Italy in the same position.
I wish you you, your wife and mother-in-law the very best. In bocca al lupo!!
I wish you and your family well. I hope my subsequent post explained my parents' view. I did not give the context about panic buying and twitter nonsense. My fault and I apologise. That was not my intent.
Sorry to get so jumpity....these are really tough times, particularly for those with elderly relatives....
It's fine. I quite understand. I was mortified that I'd upset you or anyone.
It is completely horrifying. Lockdown is almost certain in the autumn, and I suppose next spring as well. The economy is going to be absolute toast.
If people didn't believe it before, it is war.
I just read it
Basically, if we want to save half a million lives, we have to transform society, starting NOW (and possibly collapse the economy)
Jesus.
You guys have all gone completely nuts.
There is a two week gap between actions being taken and showing up in statistics of new cases.
You're staring at the numbers today... and seeing what happened two weeks ago. This means there are a lot more people sick that you realise (probably about three more doublings to go...), but after that, as happened in China, the number of new cases starts to drop pretty quickly.
Now, we'll go through it again, as a series of mini spikes. But at least we'll know what we're doing then.
Man up PBers.
Have you read the paper? You should.
It's lucid and calm and says, in terms: we're fucked. Either economically or socially. We will recover, we will endure, life will go on, but it will be a very different world afterwards. It cannot be otherwise.
For some the penny still hasn’t dropped, but this thread should do it. End of days stuff if Meeks is quoting Gandalf at you.
The govt are in serious danger of ballsing this up. The messaging is all over the place this evening.
I think they are holding back and hesitating because if they tell everyone to just hide under the duvet from tomorrow, then it will be too early.
As I keep saying, those who are screaming for everyone to be in lockdown have no idea of the mental effects of this.
Humans are social animals. Months of isolation will be a disaster.
Tonight there have been three different lines on whether healthy over 70s should stay at home for 12 weeks. It was clear this afternoon that they should, it is not clear now. It’s a mess.
It is clear:
"How to avoid catching and spreading coronavirus (social distancing) Everyone should do what they can to stop coronavirus spreading.
It is particularly important for people who:
are 70 or over have a long-term condition are pregnant have a weakened immune system Do wash your hands with soap and water often – do this for at least 20 seconds
always wash your hands when you get home or into work
use hand sanitiser gel if soap and water are not available
cover your mouth and nose with a tissue or your sleeve (not your hands) when you cough or sneeze
put used tissues in the bin immediately and wash your hands afterwards
avoid close contact with people who have symptoms of coronavirus
only travel on public transport if you need to
work from home, if you can
avoid social activities, such as going to pubs, restaurants, theatres and cinemas
avoid events with large groups of people
use phone, online services, or apps to contact your GP surgery or other NHS services"
This afternoon they said that the over 70s (etc) should stay at home for 12 weeks . That is different to the above. I did not imagine it. I am taking a particular interest, supporting bothe elderly relatives and a sick wife. It is not clear.
If the whole country goes into lockdown, there is no way neighbours aren’t going to pop next door on a nice evening for a drink/bbq
As for the arbitrary quarantine for 70 somethings, it is impossible to enforce without everyone having their dob printed on them somewhere, so it has to be voluntary doesn’t it?
I’m trying to rent a running machine and excercise bike from my mates gym to put on the garage - no one will be going there so he could use a little income
The govt are in serious danger of ballsing this up. The messaging is all over the place this evening.
You say that every night.
No I haven’t. I praised Boris last time. Tonight is very muddy.
It may well be to some, but the main guidelines have been set out and the daily conferences will clarify contentious issues as the media ask the questions
When you have ministers struggling to ask basic questions is really does not help. The stay at home for 12 weeks advice has disappeared since tea time.
The govt are in serious danger of ballsing this up. The messaging is all over the place this evening.
I think they are holding back and hesitating because if they tell everyone to just hide under the duvet from tomorrow, then it will be too early.
As I keep saying, those who are screaming for everyone to be in lockdown have no idea of the mental effects of this.
Humans are social animals. Months of isolation will be a disaster.
Tonight there have been three different lines on whether healthy over 70s should stay at home for 12 weeks. It was clear this afternoon that they should, it is not clear now. It’s a mess.
It is clear:
"How to avoid catching and spreading coronavirus (social distancing) Everyone should do what they can to stop coronavirus spreading.
It is particularly important for people who:
are 70 or over have a long-term condition are pregnant have a weakened immune system Do wash your hands with soap and water often – do this for at least 20 seconds
always wash your hands when you get home or into work
use hand sanitiser gel if soap and water are not available
cover your mouth and nose with a tissue or your sleeve (not your hands) when you cough or sneeze
put used tissues in the bin immediately and wash your hands afterwards
avoid close contact with people who have symptoms of coronavirus
only travel on public transport if you need to
work from home, if you can
avoid social activities, such as going to pubs, restaurants, theatres and cinemas
avoid events with large groups of people
use phone, online services, or apps to contact your GP surgery or other NHS services"
This afternoon they said that the over 70s (etc) should stay at home for 12 weeks . That is different to the above. I did not imagine it. I am taking a particular interest, supporting bothe elderly relatives and a sick wife. It is not clear.
No, I don't think so. As BBC says:
"People in at-risk groups will be asked within days to stay home for 12 weeks."
So they are not being asked to do that now, but they have been warned they will be asked to soon.
I would humbly suggest that is a message to sort out as many bits and bats that you need this week, because next week you will be asked to stay home.
The govt are in serious danger of ballsing this up. The messaging is all over the place this evening.
You say that every night.
No I haven’t. I praised Boris last time. Tonight is very muddy.
It may well be to some, but the main guidelines have been set out and the daily conferences will clarify contentious issues as the media ask the questions
When you have ministers struggling to ask basic questions is really does not help. The stay at home for 12 weeks advice has disappeared since tea time.
"In a few days time, by this coming weekend, it will be necessary to go further, and to ensure those with the most serious health conditions are largely shielded from social contact for around twelve weeks."
The govt are in serious danger of ballsing this up. The messaging is all over the place this evening.
I think they are holding back and hesitating because if they tell everyone to just hide under the duvet from tomorrow, then it will be too early.
As I keep saying, those who are screaming for everyone to be in lockdown have no idea of the mental effects of this.
Humans are social animals. Months of isolation will be a disaster.
Tonight there have been three different lines on whether healthy over 70s should stay at home for 12 weeks. It was clear this afternoon that they should, it is not clear now. It’s a mess.
It is clear:
"How to avoid catching and spreading coronavirus (social distancing) Everyone should do what they can to stop coronavirus spreading.
It is particularly important for people who:
are 70 or over have a long-term condition are pregnant have a weakened immune system Do wash your hands with soap and water often – do this for at least 20 seconds
always wash your hands when you get home or into work
use hand sanitiser gel if soap and water are not available
cover your mouth and nose with a tissue or your sleeve (not your hands) when you cough or sneeze
put used tissues in the bin immediately and wash your hands afterwards
avoid close contact with people who have symptoms of coronavirus
only travel on public transport if you need to
work from home, if you can
avoid social activities, such as going to pubs, restaurants, theatres and cinemas
avoid events with large groups of people
use phone, online services, or apps to contact your GP surgery or other NHS services"
But that is softer than the 12 week lockdown that Bozo stated this afternoon.
Because that was something that will be introduced in the future, not immediately.
Yes, I was just about to post that I've sussed it. The contradiction is between the 'as of now' instructions and those that will kick in at the weekend. I think it will mean that I can't leave the house from the weekend until my wife finishes her course of steroids.
The govt are in serious danger of ballsing this up. The messaging is all over the place this evening.
You say that every night.
No I haven’t. I praised Boris last time. Tonight is very muddy.
It may well be to some, but the main guidelines have been set out and the daily conferences will clarify contentious issues as the media ask the questions
Not closing the schools was a lose/lose gamble.....they are going close them next week, maybe even this week....and get blamed for not doing so earlier....
Anyway....advice to my pbCOMers...stolen from Fox last night...
Stay safe....try to eat well, sleep well, don't drink too much, and get some exercise...these will help protect you from what is coming....
So. Let's do some back of the fag packet calculations. Let's assume that there are actually 50,000 people infected in the UK today. Let's assume that we'll see three more double-ings before shut down has an impact.
That means we go 50k -> 100k -> 200k ->400k. Let's then assume that even as the daily numbers start declining, it still doubles this iteration. That means that this wave sees 800k infected.
And let's assume I'm a bit optimistic, and it actually gets to 1,000,000 cases.
Not an unreasonable estimate.
Now, let's assume a 2.5% mortality rate. That's 25,000 deaths from infections that happen between now and end May.
The numbers drop off sharply in late April and May (because lockdowns). We then relax the controls, a bit at a time, maybe regionally, while encouraging people to be a bit more vigilant than normal, and implementing a very intensive testing regime. And we also stand ready to slam the breaks on again in the event of numbers going above a certain level.
The lesson Japan and South Korea is that done properly, you can keep infections below about 50/day doing this.
Now, it probably comes back in the Autumn. But we'll be better prepared next time. CV-19 (part two) will not involve us (or anyone else) being taken by surprise.
Here's the thing. Lockdowns work. They worked in Hubei. They will work in Italy and they will work in the UK.
That's why forecasts of a million dead are off. Because they forget that... lockdowns work.
Watch Italy. New cases are going to start coming down reasonably quickly, reasonably soon.
If there are 50,000 cases already then a lot must be asymptomatic.
It is completely horrifying. Lockdown is almost certain in the autumn, and I suppose next spring as well. The economy is going to be absolute toast.
If people didn't believe it before, it is war.
I just read it
Basically, if we want to save half a million lives, we have to transform society, starting NOW (and possibly collapse the economy)
Jesus.
You guys have all gone completely nuts.
There is a two week gap between actions being taken and showing up in statistics of new cases.
You're staring at the numbers today... and seeing what happened two weeks ago. This means there are a lot more people sick that you realise (probably about three more doublings to go...), but after that, as happened in China, the number of new cases starts to drop pretty quickly.
Now, we'll go through it again, as a series of mini spikes. But at least we'll know what we're doing then.
Man up PBers.
Nah. While you were spending weeks thinking hard about which non entity was going to beat which other non entity in the Democrats bullshit, we were going deep into THE black swan of the last 70 years.
You've now focused your gaze here, spent a couple of days thinking about it and think you've got it all figured out based on one graph? Lol erm no.
We'll see soon enough. If Italy's new case number starts to decline next week then we'll know lockdowns work. (Hint: they do.)
This doesn't solve the problem - as I've said multiple times - of how we remove restrictions without restarting the issue. But it will demonstrate how to stop the number spiralling out of control.
And, by the way, I've written plenty of times about how serious this is. But I've pegged the death toll as a max of 80-100k, not a million. If anything, I'm probably slightly more optimistic now than I was a week ago.
I have been with my daughter, who has been in tears at the prospect of losing the business she has worked so hard to build up, a business which is profitable, which employs 4 permanent members of staff, all of them with bills to pay and families to support, all of whom are the sole breadwinners.
Insurance will not help. Boris advising people to stay away but not coming up with a support package is both frivolous and irresponsible. If the government thinks it important to close sectors for health reasons, then it should do so and provide compensation/support not pass the risk of government decisions to those least able to bear it.
And in the meanwhile a plea: if you can, support your local pub, bar, restaurant, club, theatre or other business. If you want these to be there in future they need your support now. If you don’t want unemployment to soar - with all the misery that entails - remember that it is our children, our friends, colleagues, us who will face this prospect - then support your businesses.
We have to be all in it together if we are going to survive this.
(Apologies for the emotional nature of this post. It is heart-breaking to see the prospect of my daughter’s hard work disappear - and through no fault of her own. She is an example of what many many people in this country will be feeling and going through tonight.)
@JM1 I have my doubts about that surge ICU capacity. Without being able to test staff, we will run short of crew very quickly. All the PPC will be gone within days, and without resupply the staff will be horribly exposed.
My daughter's best friend was supposed to be graduating as a doctor this summer. Instead she, and everyone else in her year, are graduated right now. Get to work. Lots to do.
The govt are in serious danger of ballsing this up. The messaging is all over the place this evening.
I think they are holding back and hesitating because if they tell everyone to just hide under the duvet from tomorrow, then it will be too early.
As I keep saying, those who are screaming for everyone to be in lockdown have no idea of the mental effects of this.
Humans are social animals. Months of isolation will be a disaster.
Tonight there have been three different lines on whether healthy over 70s should stay at home for 12 weeks. It was clear this afternoon that they should, it is not clear now. It’s a mess.
It is clear:
"How to avoid catching and spreading coronavirus (social distancing) Everyone should do what they can to stop coronavirus spreading.
It is particularly important for people who:
are 70 or over have a long-term condition are pregnant have a weakened immune system Do wash your hands with soap and water often – do this for at least 20 seconds
always wash your hands when you get home or into work
use hand sanitiser gel if soap and water are not available
cover your mouth and nose with a tissue or your sleeve (not your hands) when you cough or sneeze
put used tissues in the bin immediately and wash your hands afterwards
avoid close contact with people who have symptoms of coronavirus
only travel on public transport if you need to
work from home, if you can
avoid social activities, such as going to pubs, restaurants, theatres and cinemas
avoid events with large groups of people
use phone, online services, or apps to contact your GP surgery or other NHS services"
This afternoon they said that the over 70s (etc) should stay at home for 12 weeks . That is different to the above. I did not imagine it. I am taking a particular interest, supporting bothe elderly relatives and a sick wife. It is not clear.
No, I don't think so. As BBC says:
"People in at-risk groups will be asked within days to stay home for 12 weeks."
So they are not being asked to do that now, but they have been warned they will be asked to soon.
I would humbly suggest that is a message to sort out as many bits and bats that you need this week, because next week you will be asked to stay home.
Well that’s confusing. Critical that you lock yourself up for 12 weeks, but not until Friday. Maybe.
The govt are in serious danger of ballsing this up. The messaging is all over the place this evening.
I think they are holding back and hesitating because if they tell everyone to just hide under the duvet from tomorrow, then it will be too early.
As I keep saying, those who are screaming for everyone to be in lockdown have no idea of the mental effects of this.
Humans are social animals. Months of isolation will be a disaster.
Tonight there have been three different lines on whether healthy over 70s should stay at home for 12 weeks. It was clear this afternoon that they should, it is not clear now. It’s a mess.
It is clear:
"How to avoid catching and spreading coronavirus (social distancing) Everyone should do what they can to stop coronavirus spreading.
It is particularly important for people who:
are 70 or over have a long-term condition are pregnant have a weakened immune system Do wash your hands with soap and water often – do this for at least 20 seconds
always wash your hands when you get home or into work
use hand sanitiser gel if soap and water are not available
cover your mouth and nose with a tissue or your sleeve (not your hands) when you cough or sneeze
put used tissues in the bin immediately and wash your hands afterwards
avoid close contact with people who have symptoms of coronavirus
only travel on public transport if you need to
work from home, if you can
avoid social activities, such as going to pubs, restaurants, theatres and cinemas
avoid events with large groups of people
use phone, online services, or apps to contact your GP surgery or other NHS services"
This afternoon they said that the over 70s (etc) should stay at home for 12 weeks . That is different to the above. I did not imagine it. I am taking a particular interest, supporting bothe elderly relatives and a sick wife. It is not clear.
No, I don't think so. As BBC says:
"People in at-risk groups will be asked within days to stay home for 12 weeks."
So they are not being asked to do that now, but they have been warned they will be asked to soon.
I would humbly suggest that is a message to sort out as many bits and bats that you need this week, because next week you will be asked to stay home.
Well that’s confusing.
I really don't think it is. But perhaps I am an outlier.
The govt are in serious danger of ballsing this up. The messaging is all over the place this evening.
I think they are holding back and hesitating because if they tell everyone to just hide under the duvet from tomorrow, then it will be too early.
As I keep saying, those who are screaming for everyone to be in lockdown have no idea of the mental effects of this.
Humans are social animals. Months of isolation will be a disaster.
Tonight there have been three different lines on whether healthy over 70s should stay at home for 12 weeks. It was clear this afternoon that they should, it is not clear now. It’s a mess.
It is clear:
"How to avoid catching and spreading coronavirus (social distancing) Everyone should do what they can to stop coronavirus spreading.
It is particularly important for people who:
are 70 or over have a long-term condition are pregnant have a weakened immune system Do wash your hands with soap and water often – do this for at least 20 seconds
always wash your hands when you get home or into work
use hand sanitiser gel if soap and water are not available
cover your mouth and nose with a tissue or your sleeve (not your hands) when you cough or sneeze
put used tissues in the bin immediately and wash your hands afterwards
avoid close contact with people who have symptoms of coronavirus
only travel on public transport if you need to
work from home, if you can
avoid social activities, such as going to pubs, restaurants, theatres and cinemas
avoid events with large groups of people
use phone, online services, or apps to contact your GP surgery or other NHS services"
This afternoon they said that the over 70s (etc) should stay at home for 12 weeks . That is different to the above. I did not imagine it. I am taking a particular interest, supporting bothe elderly relatives and a sick wife. It is not clear.
No, I don't think so. As BBC says:
"People in at-risk groups will be asked within days to stay home for 12 weeks."
So they are not being asked to do that now, but they have been warned they will be asked to soon.
I would humbly suggest that is a message to sort out as many bits and bats that you need this week, because next week you will be asked to stay home.
Well that’s confusing. Critical that you lock yourself up for 12 weeks, but not until Friday. Maybe.
There wasn't a maybe about it. It's coming, but perhaps people need time to organize themselves before going into seclusion.
“Everyone should be trying to follow these measures as much as is pragmatic.
For those who are over 70, have an underlying health condition or are pregnant, we strongly advise you to follow the above measures as much as you can, and to significantly limit your face-to-face interaction with friends and family if possible.
This advice is likely to be in place for some weeks.”
So. Let's do some back of the fag packet calculations. Let's assume that there are actually 50,000 people infected in the UK today. Let's assume that we'll see three more double-ings before shut down has an impact.
That means we go 50k -> 100k -> 200k ->400k. Let's then assume that even as the daily numbers start declining, it still doubles this iteration. That means that this wave sees 800k infected.
And let's assume I'm a bit optimistic, and it actually gets to 1,000,000 cases.
Not an unreasonable estimate.
Now, let's assume a 2.5% mortality rate. That's 25,000 deaths from infections that happen between now and end May.
The numbers drop off sharply in late April and May (because lockdowns). We then relax the controls, a bit at a time, maybe regionally, while encouraging people to be a bit more vigilant than normal, and implementing a very intensive testing regime. And we also stand ready to slam the breaks on again in the event of numbers going above a certain level.
The lesson Japan and South Korea is that done properly, you can keep infections below about 50/day doing this.
Now, it probably comes back in the Autumn. But we'll be better prepared next time. CV-19 (part two) will not involve us (or anyone else) being taken by surprise.
Here's the thing. Lockdowns work. They worked in Hubei. They will work in Italy and they will work in the UK.
That's why forecasts of a million dead are off. Because they forget that... lockdowns work.
Watch Italy. New cases are going to start coming down reasonably quickly, reasonably soon.
If virtually everybody locked in their house for 8 weeks the dry cough wuflu should be getting a proper dry slap. I agree with you.
Why so long for a vaccine though with effort that must be going on to produce one? It’s not that corona virus is new, nor knowledge how to produce vaccines.
“Everyone should be trying to follow these measures as much as is pragmatic.
For those who are over 70, have an underlying health condition or are pregnant, we strongly advise you to follow the above measures as much as you can, and to significantly limit your face-to-face interaction with friends and family if possible.
This advice is likely to be in place for some weeks.”
It reads pretty clearly to me. Follow this advice as much as you can.
It is completely horrifying. Lockdown is almost certain in the autumn, and I suppose next spring as well. The economy is going to be absolute toast.
If people didn't believe it before, it is war.
I just read it
Basically, if we want to save half a million lives, we have to transform society, starting NOW (and possibly collapse the economy)
Jesus.
You guys have all gone completely nuts.
There is a two week gap between actions being taken and showing up in statistics of new cases.
You're staring at the numbers today... and seeing what happened two weeks ago. This means there are a lot more people sick that you realise (probably about three more doublings to go...), but after that, as happened in China, the number of new cases starts to drop pretty quickly.
Now, we'll go through it again, as a series of mini spikes. But at least we'll know what we're doing then.
Man up PBers.
Nah. While you were spending weeks thinking hard about which non entity was going to beat which other non entity in the Democrats bullshit, we were going deep into THE black swan of the last 70 years.
You've now focused your gaze here, spent a couple of days thinking about it and think you've got it all figured out based on one graph? Lol erm no.
We'll see soon enough. If Italy's new case number starts to decline next week then we'll know lockdowns work. (Hint: they do.)
This doesn't solve the problem - as I've said multiple times - of how we remove restrictions without restarting the issue. But it will demonstrate how to stop the number spiralling out of control.
And, by the way, I've written plenty of times about how serious this is. But I've pegged the death toll as a max of 80-100k, not a million. If anything, I'm probably slightly more optimistic now than I was a week ago.
Lol. I know lock downs work. I knew that 5 weeks ago. The problem is that the society we all live in is then DONE. Have you actually seen any of the experienced life behind the lock down in Italy or China? It involves not doing anything with a bit of welding people into their homes mixed in. For TWO YEARS.
Why is it terrifying??? It's what happens in science - you adjust the model when you get new data. We are going to have to adopt the lockdown model as we can't manage this epidemic in as controlled a way as we would have liked. After this we will then adapt how we handle the next wave, which will be much less costly (due to better therapy / diagnostics / equipment). The use of 'terrifying' and 'jaw dropping' is sensationalist and un-scientific drivel.
What is clear today is that things are moving faster than was anticipated. We are not as far behind Italy as we thought. London in particular is moving to the point that breaks need to be applied to the increase in infection if the NHS is going to cope. Because of the lag time between infection and a positive test this really needs to start happening now.
I really don't get how that is not consistent with the original plan or is anything other than an evolution of it. I find the scientists completely credible. Not completely sure about the guy in the middle but I am willing to give him the benefit of the doubt for now.
Hi David. Read the Imperial report. There are two clear approaches, stomp the fire out or manage it. The plan allowed for both but we were going for manage. We have pivoted towards stomp it out as the fire is uncontrollable once it gets going.
Depressing stuff really.
I think that is inevitably part of the plan. We want to use the capacity the NHS has this summer but we don't want it swamped. That means at some point the brakes have to be applied. Round about now as it turns out.
You also ignore the fact that for your model to work, society must be locked down serially, for 2/3 of the time, for two years or more (if we can't find a vaccine or good antivirals)
What does that do to the economy????
You are thinking too binary. Either it's free for all... or it's lockdown.
And somehow, you think we need to be in lockdown for two thirds of the time.
Both of those assumptions are incorrect.
Imagine the number infected doubles every five days.
5, 10, 20, 40, 80, 160, 320, 640...
Let's say six weeks. And then you implement a two week lockdown. And then you start again.
But here's the thing.
You don't go straight to a free for all. When the infection numbers are down to (say) 50 a day, you slowly relax the rules. So, you don't go straight to doubling every five days.
Japan and South Korea and China all have broad control of this. China did it after a lockdown in about six weeks.
Do you think we have some special genetic issue that means we can't do that?
I don't think you need to worry about the Witnesses. I work with one and, God or no God, he isn't about to put himself at risk by banging on the doors of the infected.
It is completely horrifying. Lockdown is almost certain in the autumn, and I suppose next spring as well. The economy is going to be absolute toast.
If people didn't believe it before, it is war.
I just read it
Basically, if we want to save half a million lives, we have to transform society, starting NOW (and possibly collapse the economy)
Jesus.
You guys have all gone completely nuts.
There is a two week gap between actions being taken and showing up in statistics of new cases.
You're staring at the numbers today... and seeing what happened two weeks ago. This means there are a lot more people sick that you realise (probably about three more doublings to go...), but after that, as happened in China, the number of new cases starts to drop pretty quickly.
Now, we'll go through it again, as a series of mini spikes. But at least we'll know what we're doing then.
Man up PBers.
Nah. While you were spending weeks thinking hard about which non entity was going to beat which other non entity in the Democrats bullshit, we were going deep into THE black swan of the last 70 years.
You've now focused your gaze here, spent a couple of days thinking about it and think you've got it all figured out based on one graph? Lol erm no.
We'll see soon enough. If Italy's new case number starts to decline next week then we'll know lockdowns work. (Hint: they do.)
This doesn't solve the problem - as I've said multiple times - of how we remove restrictions without restarting the issue. But it will demonstrate how to stop the number spiralling out of control.
And, by the way, I've written plenty of times about how serious this is. But I've pegged the death toll as a max of 80-100k, not a million. If anything, I'm probably slightly more optimistic now than I was a week ago.
Lol. I know lock downs work. I knew that 5 weeks ago. The problem is that the society we all live in is then DONE. Have you actually seen any of the experienced life behind the lock down in Italy or China? It involves not doing anything with a bit of welding people into their homes mixed in. For TWO YEARS.
China is relaxing the lockdowns already. After six weeks. Not two years.
You also ignore the fact that for your model to work, society must be locked down serially, for 2/3 of the time, for two years or more (if we can't find a vaccine or good antivirals)
What does that do to the economy????
You are thinking too binary. Either it's free for all... or it's lockdown.
And somehow, you think we need to be in lockdown for two thirds of the time.
Both of those assumptions are incorrect.
Imagine the number infected doubles every five days.
5, 10, 20, 40, 80, 160, 320, 640...
Let's say six weeks. And then you implement a two week lockdown. And then you start again.
But here's the thing.
You don't go straight to a free for all. When the infection numbers are down to (say) 50 a day, you slowly relax the rules. So, you don't go straight to doubling every five days.
Japan and South Korea and China all have broad control of this. China did it after a lockdown in about six weeks.
Do you think we have some special genetic issue that means we can't do that?
What do you think will happen in the US @rcs1000 ?
I have been with my daughter, who has been in tears at the prospect of losing the business she has worked so hard to build up, a business which is profitable, which employs 4 permanent members of staff, all of them with bills to pay and families to support, all of whom are the sole breadwinners.
Insurance will not help. Boris advising people to stay away but not coming up with a support package is both frivolous and irresponsible. If the government thinks it important to close sectors for health reasons, then it should do so and provide compensation/support not pass the risk of government decisions to those least able to bear it.
And in the meanwhile a plea: if you can, support your local pub, bar, restaurant, club, theatre or other business. If you want these to be there in future they need your support now. If you don’t want unemployment to soar - with all the misery that entails - remember that it is our children, our friends, colleagues, us who will face this prospect - then support your businesses.
We have to be all in it together if we are going to survive this.
(Apologies for the emotional nature of this post. It is heart-breaking to see the prospect of my daughter’s hard work disappear - and through no fault of her own. She is an example of what many many people in this country will be feeling and going through tonight.)
All the best, Cyclefree. It’s not impossible I’ll find myself in the same position if this goes on too long...
My parents are 89 and 90 - they have been self isolating to avoid infection since last Friday. Just had an email from my Dad saying that, if they are infected and it becomes serious enough to require hospitalisation, they have decided to refuse and die at home on the basis that younger people will need the facilities and it would be better for society. Bloody hell. BTW they still think younger generations should be ashamed of themselves for showing lack of backbone.
I don't want to be cruel...but they will not be given that choice.....
I don't quite see your point of saying the "younger generations should be ashamed of themselves"...it presents your parents in a very poor light to be honest
Tbh I don't understand what that part of the post was relating to. In what way have they not shown backbone?
It was a nasty post..... my Italian mother in law (89 years old) in Italy is terrified...she has rung us up a few times tonight, and every time we can hear sirens in the background.....she knows if she gets sick, she'll die at home...that is a given.....
My mother in law would never dream of saying young people should be ashamed of themselves....it's sickening that someone would post something like that to alienate the old from the young (at this time)...social media for you...sometimes it's fucking horrible....
I have relatives in Italy in the same position.
I wish you you, your wife and mother-in-law the very best. In bocca al lupo!!
I wish you and your family well. I hope my subsequent post explained my parents' view. I did not give the context about panic buying and twitter nonsense. My fault and I apologise. That was not my intent.
Sorry to get so jumpity....these are really tough times, particularly for those with elderly relatives....
Tyson.
My wife and I are going into isolation as we are both high risk and I have copd which to some on here would warrant a DNR notice. We have made arrangements with our children and grandchildren that we will not see them for some months but will use whats app and social media
In the worst case I could succumb to covid 19 without seeing my family again
Many of us are affected and nothing will be the same post covid 19 but my wife and I have to trust the science and Boris for our own peace of mind
We have so many blessings and 12 weeks or more in isolation together is something we will do as our deep love and commitment for each other over nearly 60 years has never been stronger
And we are fairly relaxed about it though I will miss the football and sport over the summer months and being prevented from visiting our son and daughter in Vancouver in May
So. Let's do some back of the fag packet calculations. Let's assume that there are actually 50,000 people infected in the UK today. Let's assume that we'll see three more double-ings before shut down has an impact.
That means we go 50k -> 100k -> 200k ->400k. Let's then assume that even as the daily numbers start declining, it still doubles this iteration. That means that this wave sees 800k infected.
And let's assume I'm a bit optimistic, and it actually gets to 1,000,000 cases.
Not an unreasonable estimate.
Now, let's assume a 2.5% mortality rate. That's 25,000 deaths from infections that happen between now and end May.
The numbers drop off sharply in late April and May (because lockdowns). We then relax the controls, a bit at a time, maybe regionally, while encouraging people to be a bit more vigilant than normal, and implementing a very intensive testing regime. And we also stand ready to slam the breaks on again in the event of numbers going above a certain level.
The lesson Japan and South Korea is that done properly, you can keep infections below about 50/day doing this.
Now, it probably comes back in the Autumn. But we'll be better prepared next time. CV-19 (part two) will not involve us (or anyone else) being taken by surprise.
Here's the thing. Lockdowns work. They worked in Hubei. They will work in Italy and they will work in the UK.
That's why forecasts of a million dead are off. Because they forget that... lockdowns work.
Watch Italy. New cases are going to start coming down reasonably quickly, reasonably soon.
If virtually everybody locked in their house for 8 weeks the dry cough wuflu should be getting a proper dry slap. I agree with you.
Why so long for a vaccine though with effort that must be going on to produce one? It’s not that corona virus is new, nor knowledge how to produce vaccines.
Making vaccines is hard. They tend to be created by organisms rather than manufactured.
The govt are in serious danger of ballsing this up. The messaging is all over the place this evening.
You say that every night.
No I haven’t. I praised Boris last time. Tonight is very muddy.
It may well be to some, but the main guidelines have been set out and the daily conferences will clarify contentious issues as the media ask the questions
Not closing the schools was a lose/lose gamble.....they are going close them next week, maybe even this week....and get blamed for not doing so earlier....
Anyway....advice to my pbCOMers...stolen from Fox last night...
Stay safe....try to eat well, sleep well, don't drink too much, and get some exercise...these will help protect you from what is coming....
Good night.
Schools is probably tomorrow’s u turn. It’s clear government want to hang on till Easter holidays but the heads and teachers are revolting.
It is completely horrifying. Lockdown is almost certain in the autumn, and I suppose next spring as well. The economy is going to be absolute toast.
If people didn't believe it before, it is war.
I just read it
Basically, if we want to save half a million lives, we have to transform society, starting NOW (and possibly collapse the economy)
Jesus.
You guys have all gone completely nuts.
There is a two week gap between actions being taken and showing up in statistics of new cases.
You're staring at the numbers today... and seeing what happened two weeks ago. This means there are a lot more people sick that you realise (probably about three more doublings to go...), but after that, as happened in China, the number of new cases starts to drop pretty quickly.
Now, we'll go through it again, as a series of mini spikes. But at least we'll know what we're doing then.
Man up PBers.
Have you read the paper? You should.
It's lucid and calm and says, in terms: we're fucked. Either economically or socially. We will recover, we will endure, life will go on, but it will be a very different world afterwards. It cannot be otherwise.
No. It doesn't say that. It says that with a lockdown we can (making assumptions about the NHS capacity) reduce the mortality rate quite a lot but the 'cost' of this (one I am for one very happy to accept) is another wave(s).
However, that will be better managed, with better science / therapy / diagnostics etc coupled with targeted social distancing (a la Korea) to reduce future impact. Plus they've started testing vaccines. This first wave is going to be tough and the economic consequences for many are just heartbreaking (@cyclefree - I really feel for your daughter) but the subsequent waves should really not be as bad and we can and should manage them much better, so the socio-economic consequences will be less.
Sure. I was being a bit flippant with that answer, as I felt rcs is being flippant with his "oh shut up, this isn't that bad".
This IS that bad. It's probably the baddest thing I have witnessed in my life.
But if we get it right, we will get through, with society and economy damaged, but intact.
It is completely horrifying. Lockdown is almost certain in the autumn, and I suppose next spring as well. The economy is going to be absolute toast.
If people didn't believe it before, it is war.
I just read it
Basically, if we want to save half a million lives, we have to transform society, starting NOW (and possibly collapse the economy)
Jesus.
You guys have all gone completely nuts.
There is a two week gap between actions being taken and showing up in statistics of new cases.
You're staring at the numbers today... and seeing what happened two weeks ago. This means there are a lot more people sick that you realise (probably about three more doublings to go...), but after that, as happened in China, the number of new cases starts to drop pretty quickly.
Now, we'll go through it again, as a series of mini spikes. But at least we'll know what we're doing then.
Man up PBers.
Nah. While you were spending weeks thinking hard about which non entity was going to beat which other non entity in the Democrats bullshit, we were going deep into THE black swan of the last 70 years.
You've now focused your gaze here, spent a couple of days thinking about it and think you've got it all figured out based on one graph? Lol erm no.
We'll see soon enough. If Italy's new case number starts to decline next week then we'll know lockdowns work. (Hint: they do.)
This doesn't solve the problem - as I've said multiple times - of how we remove restrictions without restarting the issue. But it will demonstrate how to stop the number spiralling out of control.
And, by the way, I've written plenty of times about how serious this is. But I've pegged the death toll as a max of 80-100k, not a million. If anything, I'm probably slightly more optimistic now than I was a week ago.
Lol. I know lock downs work. I knew that 5 weeks ago. The problem is that the society we all live in is then DONE. Have you actually seen any of the experienced life behind the lock down in Italy or China? It involves not doing anything with a bit of welding people into their homes mixed in. For TWO YEARS.
Where does the two year number come from?? That assumes we just forget everything we've learnt and all of the new science / diagnosis (e.g., I understand massively increased diagnostic throughput will soon be possible) from this outbreak.
My guess is that he grabbed the two year number from the Imperial report without reading it.
Whats the purpose of a lockdown after new cases have been reduced to (say) 20/day? It's rather pointless then.
It is completely horrifying. Lockdown is almost certain in the autumn, and I suppose next spring as well. The economy is going to be absolute toast.
If people didn't believe it before, it is war.
I just read it
Basically, if we want to save half a million lives, we have to transform society, starting NOW (and possibly collapse the economy)
Jesus.
You guys have all gone completely nuts.
There is a two week gap between actions being taken and showing up in statistics of new cases.
You're staring at the numbers today... and seeing what happened two weeks ago. This means there are a lot more people sick that you realise (probably about three more doublings to go...), but after that, as happened in China, the number of new cases starts to drop pretty quickly.
Now, we'll go through it again, as a series of mini spikes. But at least we'll know what we're doing then.
Man up PBers.
Nah. While you were spending weeks thinking hard about which non entity was going to beat which other non entity in the Democrats bullshit, we were going deep into THE black swan of the last 70 years.
You've now focused your gaze here, spent a couple of days thinking about it and think you've got it all figured out based on one graph? Lol erm no.
We'll see soon enough. If Italy's new case number starts to decline next week then we'll know lockdowns work. (Hint: they do.)
This doesn't solve the problem - as I've said multiple times - of how we remove restrictions without restarting the issue. But it will demonstrate how to stop the number spiralling out of control.
And, by the way, I've written plenty of times about how serious this is. But I've pegged the death toll as a max of 80-100k, not a million. If anything, I'm probably slightly more optimistic now than I was a week ago.
Lol. I know lock downs work. I knew that 5 weeks ago. The problem is that the society we all live in is then DONE. Have you actually seen any of the experienced life behind the lock down in Italy or China? It involves not doing anything with a bit of welding people into their homes mixed in. For TWO YEARS.
China is relaxing the lockdowns already. After six weeks. Not two years.
I suggest you read the report by the Imperial team and put down the fag packet.
We will see what happens when China opens up again. (Hint: it will come back and the blow torches will be out again)
@JM1 I have my doubts about that surge ICU capacity. Without being able to test staff, we will run short of crew very quickly. All the PPC will be gone within days, and without resupply the staff will be horribly exposed.
Hmm. So you think it's very optimistic? I assume that the modellers had very accurate data on that, since there's no value whatsoever in giving optimistic numbers here. I assume that the PPE numbers must also be reasonably accurate and that the equipment must exist somewhere.
I'm more worried (and i think you are too, right?) about the staff being hit by this and then having to stand down. It depends, quite a lot, on whether it is localised or national: in Italy it's bad everywhere but Lombardy is clearly an order of magnitude worse with other areas coping a bit better. If our cases are distributed nationally that would help, no, since there would be ways of coping with absence in a slightly more organised way?
The health minister on Newsnight claimed that there was a central reserve. It would certainly do morale a bit of goo to see it distributed. I really don't know why the new advice on pregnant women was issued. As far as I was aware they were a low risk group, being young, female and mostly healthy.
Testing, Testing Testing as the WHO DG said, we have to know who has it, if we want to be effective.
It is completely horrifying. Lockdown is almost certain in the autumn, and I suppose next spring as well. The economy is going to be absolute toast.
If people didn't believe it before, it is war.
I just read it
Basically, if we want to save half a million lives, we have to transform society, starting NOW (and possibly collapse the economy)
Jesus.
You guys have all gone completely nuts.
There is a two week gap between actions being taken and showing up in statistics of new cases.
You're staring at the numbers today... and seeing what happened two weeks ago. This means there are a lot more people sick that you realise (probably about three more doublings to go...), but after that, as happened in China, the number of new cases starts to drop pretty quickly.
Now, we'll go through it again, as a series of mini spikes. But at least we'll know what we're doing then.
Man up PBers.
Nah. While you were spending weeks thinking hard about which non entity was going to beat which other non entity in the Democrats bullshit, we were going deep into THE black swan of the last 70 years.
You've now focused your gaze here, spent a couple of days thinking about it and think you've got it all figured out based on one graph? Lol erm no.
We'll see soon enough. If Italy's new case number starts to decline next week then we'll know lockdowns work. (Hint: they do.)
This doesn't solve the problem - as I've said multiple times - of how we remove restrictions without restarting the issue. But it will demonstrate how to stop the number spiralling out of control.
And, by the way, I've written plenty of times about how serious this is. But I've pegged the death toll as a max of 80-100k, not a million. If anything, I'm probably slightly more optimistic now than I was a week ago.
Lol. I know lock downs work. I knew that 5 weeks ago. The problem is that the society we all live in is then DONE. Have you actually seen any of the experienced life behind the lock down in Italy or China? It involves not doing anything with a bit of welding people into their homes mixed in. For TWO YEARS.
China is relaxing the lockdowns already. After six weeks. Not two years.
I suggest you read the report by the Imperial team and put down the fag packet.
We will see what happens when China opens up again. (Hint: it will come back and the blow torches will be out again)
Sure. I was being a bit flippant with that answer, as I felt rcs is being flippant with his "oh shut up, this isn't that bad".
This IS that bad. It's probably the baddest thing I have witnessed in my life.
But if we get it right, we will get through, with society and economy damaged, but intact.
I'm not saying it's not bad. It's really bad. It means that anyone looking at a long-term chart of deaths in the UK will say "holy fuck, why did deaths spike in 2020???"
But I'm also saying it's not going to be like having all the deaths of WW1 happening in a single year.
Simply, even assume if you assume that the death rate of symptomatic cases is 5% (and it won't be), then you'd need 20 million symptomatic people to get to that level.
Which would possible, if there are very few asymptomatic cases and the government implemented no measures to prevent its spread (like lockdowns). But, it looks like these assumptions are both false.
Ultimately, the big problem we all have here, and I keep repeating this, is that we're staring into the rear view mirror. Nothing we do seems to work, because the number we're seeing moving is the number from two weeks ago... before we'd started to do anything.
So. Let's do some back of the fag packet calculations. Let's assume that there are actually 50,000 people infected in the UK today. Let's assume that we'll see three more double-ings before shut down has an impact.
That means we go 50k -> 100k -> 200k ->400k. Let's then assume that even as the daily numbers start declining, it still doubles this iteration. That means that this wave sees 800k infected.
And let's assume I'm a bit optimistic, and it actually gets to 1,000,000 cases.
Not an unreasonable estimate.
Now, let's assume a 2.5% mortality rate. That's 25,000 deaths from infections that happen between now and end May.
The numbers drop off sharply in late April and May (because lockdowns). We then relax the controls, a bit at a time, maybe regionally, while encouraging people to be a bit more vigilant than normal, and implementing a very intensive testing regime. And we also stand ready to slam the breaks on again in the event of numbers going above a certain level.
The lesson Japan and South Korea is that done properly, you can keep infections below about 50/day doing this.
Now, it probably comes back in the Autumn. But we'll be better prepared next time. CV-19 (part two) will not involve us (or anyone else) being taken by surprise.
Here's the thing. Lockdowns work. They worked in Hubei. They will work in Italy and they will work in the UK.
That's why forecasts of a million dead are off. Because they forget that... lockdowns work.
Watch Italy. New cases are going to start coming down reasonably quickly, reasonably soon.
If virtually everybody locked in their house for 8 weeks the dry cough wuflu should be getting a proper dry slap. I agree with you.
Why so long for a vaccine though with effort that must be going on to produce one? It’s not that corona virus is new, nor knowledge how to produce vaccines.
Vaccines are the guaranteed result of effort and knowledge, just like major lottery wins are. There is none for mers or sars and no serious scientist is predicting one as an odds on probability. What seems to happen is they say not for at least 18 months and people read this as nailed on in 2 years. Vallance talks about this becoming an annual occurrence, he doesn't say annual for the 3 years till a vaccine is sorted. Sorry, but there it is.
My parents are 89 and 90 - they have been self isolating to avoid infection since last Friday. Just had an email from my Dad saying that, if they are infected and it becomes serious enough to require hospitalisation, they have decided to refuse and die at home on the basis that younger people will need the facilities and it would be better for society. Bloody hell. BTW they still think younger generations should be ashamed of themselves for showing lack of backbone.
I don't want to be cruel...but they will not be given that choice.....
I don't quite see your point of saying the "younger generations should be ashamed of themselves"...it presents your parents in a very poor light to be honest
Tbh I don't understand what that part of the post was relating to. In what way have they not shown backbone?
It was a nasty post..... my Italian mother in law (89 years old) in Italy is terrified...she has rung us up a few times tonight, and every time we can hear sirens in the background.....she knows if she gets sick, she'll die at home...that is a given.....
My mother in law would never dream of saying young people should be ashamed of themselves....it's sickening that someone would post something like that to alienate the old from the young (at this time)...social media for you...sometimes it's fucking horrible....
I have relatives in Italy in the same position.
I wish you you, your wife and mother-in-law the very best. In bocca al lupo!!
I wish you and your family well. I hope my subsequent post explained my parents' view. I did not give the context about panic buying and twitter nonsense. My fault and I apologise. That was not my intent.
Sorry to get so jumpity....these are really tough times, particularly for those with elderly relatives....
Tyson.
My wife and I are going into isolation as we are both high risk and I have copd which to some on here would warrant a DNR notice. We have made arrangements with our children and grandchildren that we will not see them for some months but will use whats app and social media
In the worst case I could succumb to covid 19 without seeing my family again
Many of us are affected and nothing will be the same post covid 19 but my wife and I have to trust the science and Boris for our own peace of mind
We have so many blessings and 12 weeks or more in isolation together is something we will do as our deep love and commitment for each other over nearly 60 years has never been stronger
And we are fairly relaxed about it though I will miss the football and sport over the summer months and being prevented from visiting our son and daughter in Vancouver in May
Good luck Big G
We are all facing sad and sometimes terrifying choices.
I have personally said goodbye to friends and relatives, with the knowledge that I may not ever see them again. This is where we are.
I have recently started telling people that I love them (when I do), and it is surprising how often you get the same response. We all need to be nice, none of us is here forever.
Maybe Covid-19 will make the internet a nicer place. That would be quite a silver lining.
One way to not feel so gloomy is to imagine you were a Syrian trapped in a hell hole of bombings, gas attacks, ISIS control, no home, no food, no society, for the last decade, then being offered the chance of a new life in the uk as long as you agreed to sit in a nice home with all the tv, internet and movies you could ask for, a back garden with pleasant weather plus weekly food deliveries you can easily afford (inc alcohol) for up to three spring summer months
“Everyone should be trying to follow these measures as much as is pragmatic.
For those who are over 70, have an underlying health condition or are pregnant, we strongly advise you to follow the above measures as much as you can, and to significantly limit your face-to-face interaction with friends and family if possible.
This advice is likely to be in place for some weeks.”
I've recently turned 70, in good health. I see nothing there stopping me going out in the car with the wife, popping in the local shop when its quiet for a few essentials. Am I wrong?
Sure. I was being a bit flippant with that answer, as I felt rcs is being flippant with his "oh shut up, this isn't that bad".
This IS that bad. It's probably the baddest thing I have witnessed in my life.
But if we get it right, we will get through, with society and economy damaged, but intact.
I'm not saying it's not bad. It's really bad. It means that anyone looking at a long-term chart of deaths in the UK will say "holy fuck, why did deaths spike in 2020???"
But I'm also saying it's not going to be like having all the deaths of WW1 happening in a single year.
Simply, even assume if you assume that the death rate of symptomatic cases is 5% (and it won't be), then you'd need 20 million symptomatic people to get to that level.
Which would possible, if there are very few asymptomatic cases and the government implemented no measures to prevent its spread (like lockdowns). But, it looks like these assumptions are both false.
Ultimately, the big problem we all have here, and I keep repeating this, is that we're staring into the rear view mirror. Nothing we do seems to work, because the number we're seeing moving is the number from two weeks ago... before we'd started to do anything.
I think that they have got that though. They put the brakes on today because in 2 weeks time (which is already baked in) the NHS is going to be at absolute full stretch. At that point the number of new infections really has to fall and that will only happen if we start now.
It is completely horrifying. Lockdown is almost certain in the autumn, and I suppose next spring as well. The economy is going to be absolute toast.
If people didn't believe it before, it is war.
I just read it
Basically, if we want to save half a million lives, we have to transform society, starting NOW (and possibly collapse the economy)
Jesus.
You guys have all gone completely nuts.
There is a two week gap between actions being taken and showing up in statistics of new cases.
You're staring at the numbers today... and seeing what happened two weeks ago. This means there are a lot more people sick that you realise (probably about three more doublings to go...), but after that, as happened in China, the number of new cases starts to drop pretty quickly.
Now, we'll go through it again, as a series of mini spikes. But at least we'll know what we're doing then.
Man up PBers.
Nah. While you were spending weeks thinking hard about which non entity was going to beat which other non entity in the Democrats bullshit, we were going deep into THE black swan of the last 70 years.
You've now focused your gaze here, spent a couple of days thinking about it and think you've got it all figured out based on one graph? Lol erm no.
We'll see soon enough. If Italy's new case number starts to decline next week then we'll know lockdowns work. (Hint: they do.)
This doesn't solve the problem - as I've said multiple times - of how we remove restrictions without restarting the issue. But it will demonstrate how to stop the number spiralling out of control.
And, by the way, I've written plenty of times about how serious this is. But I've pegged the death toll as a max of 80-100k, not a million. If anything, I'm probably slightly more optimistic now than I was a week ago.
Lol. I know lock downs work. I knew that 5 weeks ago. The problem is that the society we all live in is then DONE. Have you actually seen any of the experienced life behind the lock down in Italy or China? It involves not doing anything with a bit of welding people into their homes mixed in. For TWO YEARS.
China is relaxing the lockdowns already. After six weeks. Not two years.
I suggest you read the report by the Imperial team and put down the fag packet.
We will see what happens when China opens up again. (Hint: it will come back and the blow torches will be out again)
China could maybe keep it somewhat down. I'd suspect to see most of these social distancing measures in China remain in force, with it being exceptionally hard to go between provinces for the foreseeable future. Maybe we'll also adapt, maybe not.
“Everyone should be trying to follow these measures as much as is pragmatic.
For those who are over 70, have an underlying health condition or are pregnant, we strongly advise you to follow the above measures as much as you can, and to significantly limit your face-to-face interaction with friends and family if possible.
This advice is likely to be in place for some weeks.”
I've recently turned 70, in good health. I see nothing there stopping me going out in the car with the wife, popping in the local shop when its quiet for a few essentials. Am I wrong?
This is starting to sound a lot like "its just like flu" attitude again.
Go and look at the report. You get this at your age, you have a very high chance of ending up in hospital and if you do requiring ICU.
The ramp up with age of not only requiring hospitalization, but crucially ICU is enormous post 50.
I can't believe that I spent the last 4 years thinking that Brexit would be the biggest issue in the history books about the early part of this century.
So. Let's do some back of the fag packet calculations. Let's assume that there are actually 50,000 people infected in the UK today. Let's assume that we'll see three more double-ings before shut down has an impact.
That means we go 50k -> 100k -> 200k ->400k. Let's then assume that even as the daily numbers start declining, it still doubles this iteration. That means that this wave sees 800k infected.
And let's assume I'm a bit optimistic, and it actually gets to 1,000,000 cases.
Not an unreasonable estimate.
Now, let's assume a 2.5% mortality rate. That's 25,000 deaths from infections that happen between now and end May.
The numbers drop off sharply in late April and May (because lockdowns). We then relax the controls, a bit at a time, maybe regionally, while encouraging people to be a bit more vigilant than normal, and implementing a very intensive testing regime. And we also stand ready to slam the breaks on again in the event of numbers going above a certain level.
The lesson Japan and South Korea is that done properly, you can keep infections below about 50/day doing this.
Now, it probably comes back in the Autumn. But we'll be better prepared next time. CV-19 (part two) will not involve us (or anyone else) being taken by surprise.
Here's the thing. Lockdowns work. They worked in Hubei. They will work in Italy and they will work in the UK.
That's why forecasts of a million dead are off. Because they forget that... lockdowns work.
Watch Italy. New cases are going to start coming down reasonably quickly, reasonably soon.
If virtually everybody locked in their house for 8 weeks the dry cough wuflu should be getting a proper dry slap. I agree with you.
Why so long for a vaccine though with effort that must be going on to produce one? It’s not that corona virus is new, nor knowledge how to produce vaccines.
Making vaccines is hard. They tend to be created by organisms rather than manufactured.
Bloody good invention, vaccines.
One of BJs chief medical swots said today a test wether you had it would be a game changer. How long till one of those? Do the organisms have to create one of those too when not too busy on the vaccine, like when waiting for something to grow in a tray thing they can butterfly into something else? Like growing two fingers for victory on the backs of mice to help keep morale up?
So. Let's do some back of the fag packet calculations. Let's assume that there are actually 50,000 people infected in the UK today. Let's assume that we'll see three more double-ings before shut down has an impact.
That means we go 50k -> 100k -> 200k ->400k. Let's then assume that even as the daily numbers start declining, it still doubles this iteration. That means that this wave sees 800k infected.
And let's assume I'm a bit optimistic, and it actually gets to 1,000,000 cases.
Not an unreasonable estimate.
Now, let's assume a 2.5% mortality rate. That's 25,000 deaths from infections that happen between now and end May.
The numbers drop off sharply in late April and May (because lockdowns). We then relax the controls, a bit at a time, maybe regionally, while encouraging people to be a bit more vigilant than normal, and implementing a very intensive testing regime. And we also stand ready to slam the breaks on again in the event of numbers going above a certain level.
The lesson Japan and South Korea is that done properly, you can keep infections below about 50/day doing this.
Now, it probably comes back in the Autumn. But we'll be better prepared next time. CV-19 (part two) will not involve us (or anyone else) being taken by surprise.
Here's the thing. Lockdowns work. They worked in Hubei. They will work in Italy and they will work in the UK.
That's why forecasts of a million dead are off. Because they forget that... lockdowns work.
Watch Italy. New cases are going to start coming down reasonably quickly, reasonably soon.
If virtually everybody locked in their house for 8 weeks the dry cough wuflu should be getting a proper dry slap. I agree with you.
Why so long for a vaccine though with effort that must be going on to produce one? It’s not that corona virus is new, nor knowledge how to produce vaccines.
Making vaccines is hard. They tend to be created by organisms rather than manufactured.
Bloody good invention, vaccines.
One of BJs chief medical swots said today a test wether you had it would be a game changer. How long till one of those? Do the organisms have to create one of those too when not too busy on the vaccine, like when waiting for something to grow in a tray thing they can butterfly into something else? Like growing two fingers for victory on the backs of mice to help keep morale up?
“Everyone should be trying to follow these measures as much as is pragmatic.
For those who are over 70, have an underlying health condition or are pregnant, we strongly advise you to follow the above measures as much as you can, and to significantly limit your face-to-face interaction with friends and family if possible.
This advice is likely to be in place for some weeks.”
I've recently turned 70, in good health. I see nothing there stopping me going out in the car with the wife, popping in the local shop when its quiet for a few essentials. Am I wrong?
Quite. It’s so open and caveated to be largely meaningless. If you only have to ‘try’ and do it just ‘as much as is pragmatic’ or if you are particularly risk do ‘as much as you can’ and to limit interaction ‘if possible’, don’t be surprised if people don’t do it.
You would not write a anything remotely binding or forceful like this. The government do not ask you to try to pay your taxes as much is pragmatic.
@JM1 I have my doubts about that surge ICU capacity. Without being able to test staff, we will run short of crew very quickly. All the PPC will be gone within days, and without resupply the staff will be horribly exposed.
My daughter's best friend was supposed to be graduating as a doctor this summer. Instead she, and everyone else in her year, are graduated right now. Get to work. Lots to do.
The very best of luck to them all, what a time to be starting your career.
One way to not feel so gloomy is to imagine you were a Syrian trapped in a hell hole of bombings, gas attacks, ISIS control, no home, no food, no society, for the last decade, then being offered the chance of a new life in the uk as long as you agreed to sit in a nice home with all the tv, internet and movies you could ask for, a back garden with pleasant weather plus weekly food deliveries you can easily afford (inc alcohol) for up to three spring summer months
Or one of my good friends told today that his bowel cancer is inoperable.
It is completely horrifying. Lockdown is almost certain in the autumn, and I suppose next spring as well. The economy is going to be absolute toast.
If people didn't believe it before, it is war.
I just read it
Basically, if we want to save half a million lives, we have to transform society, starting NOW (and possibly collapse the economy)
Jesus.
You guys have all gone completely nuts.
There is a two week gap between actions being taken and showing up in statistics of new cases.
You're staring at the numbers today... and seeing what happened two weeks ago. This means there are a lot more people sick that you realise (probably about three more doublings to go...), but after that, as happened in China, the number of new cases starts to drop pretty quickly.
Now, we'll go through it again, as a series of mini spikes. But at least we'll know what we're doing then.
Man up PBers.
Nah. While you were spending weeks thinking hard about which non entity was going to beat which other non entity in the Democrats bullshit, we were going deep into THE black swan of the last 70 years.
You've now focused your gaze here, spent a couple of days thinking about it and think you've got it all figured out based on one graph? Lol erm no.
We'll see soon enough. If Italy's new case number starts to decline next week then we'll know lockdowns work. (Hint: they do.)
This doesn't solve the problem - as I've said multiple times - of how we remove restrictions without restarting the issue. But it will demonstrate how to stop the number spiralling out of control.
And, by the way, I've written plenty of times about how serious this is. But I've pegged the death toll as a max of 80-100k, not a million. If anything, I'm probably slightly more optimistic now than I was a week ago.
Lol. I know lock downs work. I knew that 5 weeks ago. The problem is that the society we all live in is then DONE. Have you actually seen any of the experienced life behind the lock down in Italy or China? It involves not doing anything with a bit of welding people into their homes mixed in. For TWO YEARS.
China is relaxing the lockdowns already. After six weeks. Not two years.
I suggest you read the report by the Imperial team and put down the fag packet.
We will see what happens when China opens up again. (Hint: it will come back and the blow torches will be out again)
I have read it.
And it doesn't talk about two years with the UK being in total lockdown. It talks about some measures remaining in place for two years.
So. Let's do some back of the fag packet calculations. Let's assume that there are actually 50,000 people infected in the UK today. Let's assume that we'll see three more double-ings before shut down has an impact.
That means we go 50k -> 100k -> 200k ->400k. Let's then assume that even as the daily numbers start declining, it still doubles this iteration. That means that this wave sees 800k infected.
And let's assume I'm a bit optimistic, and it actually gets to 1,000,000 cases.
Not an unreasonable estimate.
Now, let's assume a 2.5% mortality rate. That's 25,000 deaths from infections that happen between now and end May.
The numbers drop off sharply in late April and May (because lockdowns). We then relax the controls, a bit at a time, maybe regionally, while encouraging people to be a bit more vigilant than normal, and implementing a very intensive testing regime. And we also stand ready to slam the breaks on again in the event of numbers going above a certain level.
The lesson Japan and South Korea is that done properly, you can keep infections below about 50/day doing this.
Now, it probably comes back in the Autumn. But we'll be better prepared next time. CV-19 (part two) will not involve us (or anyone else) being taken by surprise.
Here's the thing. Lockdowns work. They worked in Hubei. They will work in Italy and they will work in the UK.
That's why forecasts of a million dead are off. Because they forget that... lockdowns work.
Watch Italy. New cases are going to start coming down reasonably quickly, reasonably soon.
If virtually everybody locked in their house for 8 weeks the dry cough wuflu should be getting a proper dry slap. I agree with you.
Why so long for a vaccine though with effort that must be going on to produce one? It’s not that corona virus is new, nor knowledge how to produce vaccines.
Making vaccines is hard. They tend to be created by organisms rather than manufactured.
Bloody good invention, vaccines.
One of BJs chief medical swots said today a test wether you had it would be a game changer. How long till one of those? Do the organisms have to create one of those too when not too busy on the vaccine, like when waiting for something to grow in a tray thing they can butterfly into something else? Like growing two fingers for victory on the backs of mice to help keep morale up?
Surely a test to discover if someone has the antibodies can't be that far off. A large part of the fear at the moment is that we don't really have a great idea of just how bad this is due to the unknown magnitude of the iceberg effect.
“Everyone should be trying to follow these measures as much as is pragmatic.
For those who are over 70, have an underlying health condition or are pregnant, we strongly advise you to follow the above measures as much as you can, and to significantly limit your face-to-face interaction with friends and family if possible.
This advice is likely to be in place for some weeks.”
I've recently turned 70, in good health. I see nothing there stopping me going out in the car with the wife, popping in the local shop when its quiet for a few essentials. Am I wrong?
This is starting to sound a lot like "its just like flu" attitude again.
Go and look at the report. You get this at your age, you have a very high chance of ending up in hospital and if you do requiring ICU.
The ramp up with age of not only requiring hospitalization, but crucially ICU is enormous post 50.
And if you are on an ICU, someone else is dying of not being on that ICU.
“Everyone should be trying to follow these measures as much as is pragmatic.
For those who are over 70, have an underlying health condition or are pregnant, we strongly advise you to follow the above measures as much as you can, and to significantly limit your face-to-face interaction with friends and family if possible.
This advice is likely to be in place for some weeks.”
I've recently turned 70, in good health. I see nothing there stopping me going out in the car with the wife, popping in the local shop when its quiet for a few essentials. Am I wrong?
Difficult call.
You may contract it in the local shop or something unexpected happens while you are out and as a result you take up precious NHS resources
One way to not feel so gloomy is to imagine you were a Syrian trapped in a hell hole of bombings, gas attacks, ISIS control, no home, no food, no society, for the last decade, then being offered the chance of a new life in the uk as long as you agreed to sit in a nice home with all the tv, internet and movies you could ask for, a back garden with pleasant weather plus weekly food deliveries you can easily afford (inc alcohol) for up to three spring summer months
Or one of my good friends told today that his bowel cancer is inoperable.
“Everyone should be trying to follow these measures as much as is pragmatic.
For those who are over 70, have an underlying health condition or are pregnant, we strongly advise you to follow the above measures as much as you can, and to significantly limit your face-to-face interaction with friends and family if possible.
This advice is likely to be in place for some weeks.”
I've recently turned 70, in good health. I see nothing there stopping me going out in the car with the wife, popping in the local shop when its quiet for a few essentials. Am I wrong?
Difficult call.
You may contract it in the local shop or something unexpected happens while you are out and as a result you take up precious NHS resources
“Everyone should be trying to follow these measures as much as is pragmatic.
For those who are over 70, have an underlying health condition or are pregnant, we strongly advise you to follow the above measures as much as you can, and to significantly limit your face-to-face interaction with friends and family if possible.
This advice is likely to be in place for some weeks.”
I've recently turned 70, in good health. I see nothing there stopping me going out in the car with the wife, popping in the local shop when its quiet for a few essentials. Am I wrong?
Quite. It’s so open and caveated to be largely meaningless. If you only have to ‘try’ and do it just ‘as much as is pragmatic’ or if you are particularly risk do ‘as much as you can’ and to limit interaction ‘if possible’, don’t be surprised if people don’t do it.
You would not write a anything remotely binding or forceful like this. The government do not ask you to try to pay your taxes as much is pragmatic.
How would you suggest they enforce it? Police stop people who look like they could be 70 or over and ask for proof of age?
Sure. I was being a bit flippant with that answer, as I felt rcs is being flippant with his "oh shut up, this isn't that bad".
This IS that bad. It's probably the baddest thing I have witnessed in my life.
But if we get it right, we will get through, with society and economy damaged, but intact.
I'm not saying it's not bad. It's really bad. It means that anyone looking at a long-term chart of deaths in the UK will say "holy fuck, why did deaths spike in 2020???"
But I'm also saying it's not going to be like having all the deaths of WW1 happening in a single year.
Simply, even assume if you assume that the death rate of symptomatic cases is 5% (and it won't be), then you'd need 20 million symptomatic people to get to that level.
Which would possible, if there are very few asymptomatic cases and the government implemented no measures to prevent its spread (like lockdowns). But, it looks like these assumptions are both false.
Ultimately, the big problem we all have here, and I keep repeating this, is that we're staring into the rear view mirror. Nothing we do seems to work, because the number we're seeing moving is the number from two weeks ago... before we'd started to do anything.
I think that they have got that though. They put the brakes on today because in 2 weeks time (which is already baked in) the NHS is going to be at absolute full stretch. At that point the number of new infections really has to fall and that will only happen if we start now.
Yeah I think we all have got this lagged outcome concept fairly clear in our minds. It's not complex stuff and I reckon the experts in mathematical modelling might just have grasped it.
One way to not feel so gloomy is to imagine you were a Syrian trapped in a hell hole of bombings, gas attacks, ISIS control, no home, no food, no society, for the last decade, then being offered the chance of a new life in the uk as long as you agreed to sit in a nice home with all the tv, internet and movies you could ask for, a back garden with pleasant weather plus weekly food deliveries you can easily afford (inc alcohol) for up to three spring summer months
Or one of my good friends told today that his bowel cancer is inoperable.
One way to not feel so gloomy is to imagine you were a Syrian trapped in a hell hole of bombings, gas attacks, ISIS control, no home, no food, no society, for the last decade, then being offered the chance of a new life in the uk as long as you agreed to sit in a nice home with all the tv, internet and movies you could ask for, a back garden with pleasant weather plus weekly food deliveries you can easily afford (inc alcohol) for up to three spring summer months
Or one of my good friends told today that his bowel cancer is inoperable.
In the mid 90s my dad was told he only had 6 months to live.
@JM1 I have my doubts about that surge ICU capacity. Without being able to test staff, we will run short of crew very quickly. All the PPC will be gone within days, and without resupply the staff will be horribly exposed.
My daughter's best friend was supposed to be graduating as a doctor this summer. Instead she, and everyone else in her year, are graduated right now. Get to work. Lots to do.
The very best of luck to them all, what a time to be starting your career.
Absolutely. Rather reminds me of the pictures of raw recruits in WW1 about to go over the top. They don't seem daunted though.
I can't believe that I spent the last 4 years thinking that Brexit would be the biggest issue in the history books about the early part of this century.
Shippers must be a bit pissed off his part three of All Out War is probably going to sink without trace.
Boris just says ‘you shouldn’t attend social events. Any questions?’
Little different to what Sunak already announced in the budget and more can be added if needed
Don’t be ridiculous. It’s far more. SSP is only paid to the sick not the unemployed and only lasts for 14 days. You cannot live on it for months and months as you seem to think. Sunak’s Budget is inadequate and out of date.
Of course you can given you will only be allowed out of the house to buy food, if people are self isolating for months SSP can be extended but the amount paid stays the same
“Everyone should be trying to follow these measures as much as is pragmatic.
For those who are over 70, have an underlying health condition or are pregnant, we strongly advise you to follow the above measures as much as you can, and to significantly limit your face-to-face interaction with friends and family if possible.
This advice is likely to be in place for some weeks.”
I've recently turned 70, in good health. I see nothing there stopping me going out in the car with the wife, popping in the local shop when its quiet for a few essentials. Am I wrong?
“Everyone should be trying to follow these measures as much as is pragmatic.
For those who are over 70, have an underlying health condition or are pregnant, we strongly advise you to follow the above measures as much as you can, and to significantly limit your face-to-face interaction with friends and family if possible.
This advice is likely to be in place for some weeks.”
I've recently turned 70, in good health. I see nothing there stopping me going out in the car with the wife, popping in the local shop when its quiet for a few essentials. Am I wrong?
Quite. It’s so open and caveated to be largely meaningless. If you only have to ‘try’ and do it just ‘as much as is pragmatic’ or if you are particularly risk do ‘as much as you can’ and to limit interaction ‘if possible’, don’t be surprised if people don’t do it.
You would not write a anything remotely binding or forceful like this. The government do not ask you to try to pay your taxes as much is pragmatic.
How would you suggest they enforce it? Police stop people who look like they could be 70 or over and ask for proof of age?
Yes.
You sound as if you think there's some sort of paradox involved. Where's the paradox?
Thought Stephanie Flanders was a great guest on Newsnight. Made the point that, in economic terms, the diagnosis is simple: people aren’t earning (enough) money; and people are spending enough money. Nothing like the Byzantine complexity of 2008.
So the fiscal measures necessary need to inject the cash in the right places, where people will spend it not save it. That’s not an easy solution to find, but at least the problem is easily definable.
I doubt JM Keynes would have imagined countermeasures to the Paradox of Thrift on such a grand scale.
'Don’t be ridiculous. It’s far more. SSP is only paid to the sick not the unemployed and only lasts for 14 days. You cannot live on it for months and months as you seem to think. Sunak’s Budget is inadequate and out of date.'
Of course you can given you will only be allowed out of the house to buy food, if people are self isolating for months SSP can be extended but the amount paid stays the same
“Everyone should be trying to follow these measures as much as is pragmatic.
For those who are over 70, have an underlying health condition or are pregnant, we strongly advise you to follow the above measures as much as you can, and to significantly limit your face-to-face interaction with friends and family if possible.
This advice is likely to be in place for some weeks.”
I've recently turned 70, in good health. I see nothing there stopping me going out in the car with the wife, popping in the local shop when its quiet for a few essentials. Am I wrong?
Quite. It’s so open and caveated to be largely meaningless. If you only have to ‘try’ and do it just ‘as much as is pragmatic’ or if you are particularly risk do ‘as much as you can’ and to limit interaction ‘if possible’, don’t be surprised if people don’t do it.
You would not write a anything remotely binding or forceful like this. The government do not ask you to try to pay your taxes as much is pragmatic.
How would you suggest they enforce it? Police stop people who look like they could be 70 or over and ask for proof of age?
Yes.
You sound as if you think there's some sort of paradox involved. Where's the paradox?
I expect the powers will be far more sweeping than just the over 70s.
So. Let's do some back of the fag packet calculations. Let's assume that there are actually 50,000 people infected in the UK today. Let's assume that we'll see three more double-ings before shut down has an impact.
That means we go 50k -> 100k -> 200k ->400k. Let's then assume that even as the daily numbers start declining, it still doubles this iteration. That means that this wave sees 800k infected.
And let's assume I'm a bit optimistic, and it actually gets to 1,000,000 cases.
Not an unreasonable estimate.
Now, let's assume a 2.5% mortality rate. That's 25,000 deaths from infections that happen between now and end May.
The numbers drop off sharply in late April and May (because lockdowns). We then relax the controls, a bit at a time, maybe regionally, while encouraging people to be a bit more vigilant than normal, and implementing a very intensive testing regime. And we also stand ready to slam the breaks on again in the event of numbers going above a certain level.
The lesson Japan and South Korea is that done properly, you can keep infections below about 50/day doing this.
Now, it probably comes back in the Autumn. But we'll be better prepared next time. CV-19 (part two) will not involve us (or anyone else) being taken by surprise.
Here's the thing. Lockdowns work. They worked in Hubei. They will work in Italy and they will work in the UK.
That's why forecasts of a million dead are off. Because they forget that... lockdowns work.
Watch Italy. New cases are going to start coming down reasonably quickly, reasonably soon.
If virtually everybody locked in their house for 8 weeks the dry cough wuflu should be getting a proper dry slap. I agree with you.
Why so long for a vaccine though with effort that must be going on to produce one? It’s not that corona virus is new, nor knowledge how to produce vaccines.
Making vaccines is hard. They tend to be created by organisms rather than manufactured.
Making a vaccine is... comparatively... easy. Making one that is effective, and safe, and proving it to be so through testing, is a long and hard process. And manufacturing it in bulk expensive and time consuming.
“Everyone should be trying to follow these measures as much as is pragmatic.
For those who are over 70, have an underlying health condition or are pregnant, we strongly advise you to follow the above measures as much as you can, and to significantly limit your face-to-face interaction with friends and family if possible.
This advice is likely to be in place for some weeks.”
I've recently turned 70, in good health. I see nothing there stopping me going out in the car with the wife, popping in the local shop when its quiet for a few essentials. Am I wrong?
Quite. It’s so open and caveated to be largely meaningless. If you only have to ‘try’ and do it just ‘as much as is pragmatic’ or if you are particularly risk do ‘as much as you can’ and to limit interaction ‘if possible’, don’t be surprised if people don’t do it.
You would not write a anything remotely binding or forceful like this. The government do not ask you to try to pay your taxes as much is pragmatic.
How would you suggest they enforce it? Police stop people who look like they could be 70 or over and ask for proof of age?
Yes.
You sound as if you think there's some sort of paradox involved. Where's the paradox?
I just don’t see we live in the kind of society where that would happen really
One way to not feel so gloomy is to imagine you were a Syrian trapped in a hell hole of bombings, gas attacks, ISIS control, no home, no food, no society, for the last decade, then being offered the chance of a new life in the uk as long as you agreed to sit in a nice home with all the tv, internet and movies you could ask for, a back garden with pleasant weather plus weekly food deliveries you can easily afford (inc alcohol) for up to three spring summer months
Or one of my good friends told today that his bowel cancer is inoperable.
In the mid 90s my dad was told he only had 6 months to live.
I can't believe that I spent the last 4 years thinking that Brexit would be the biggest issue in the history books about the early part of this century.
It's always the things you don't see coming that are the worst...
Thought Stephanie Flanders was a great guest on Newsnight. Made the point that, in economic terms, the diagnosis is simple: people aren’t earning (enough) money; and people are spending enough money. Nothing like the Byzantine complexity of 2008.
So the fiscal measures necessary need to inject the cash in the right places, where people will spend it not save it. That’s not an easy solution to find, but at least the problem is easily definable.
I doubt JM Keynes would have imagined countermeasures to the Paradox of Thrift on such a grand scale.
I'm fairly confident that the taps will be turned on big time tomorrow.
“Everyone should be trying to follow these measures as much as is pragmatic.
For those who are over 70, have an underlying health condition or are pregnant, we strongly advise you to follow the above measures as much as you can, and to significantly limit your face-to-face interaction with friends and family if possible.
This advice is likely to be in place for some weeks.”
I've recently turned 70, in good health. I see nothing there stopping me going out in the car with the wife, popping in the local shop when its quiet for a few essentials. Am I wrong?
Quite. It’s so open and caveated to be largely meaningless. If you only have to ‘try’ and do it just ‘as much as is pragmatic’ or if you are particularly risk do ‘as much as you can’ and to limit interaction ‘if possible’, don’t be surprised if people don’t do it.
You would not write a anything remotely binding or forceful like this. The government do not ask you to try to pay your taxes as much is pragmatic.
How would you suggest they enforce it? Police stop people who look like they could be 70 or over and ask for proof of age?
As written I doubt that many people will stick to it. After a few days there will be so many ‘I’ll just pop down to the coop or go round to see Sheila’ moments. People tend to believe that the worst can’t happen to them, right up until it happens.
So if this advice is as critical as it is supposed to be it needs more bite. You can start by toughening up the language In the rules. Hell the green cross code was tougher than this. Get the police out to tell people to go home if required.
It is completely horrifying. Lockdown is almost certain in the autumn, and I suppose next spring as well. The economy is going to be absolute toast.
If people didn't believe it before, it is war.
I just read it
Basically, if we want to save half a million lives, we have to transform society, starting NOW (and possibly collapse the economy)
Jesus.
You guys have all gone completely nuts.
There is a two week gap between actions being taken and showing up in statistics of new cases.
You're staring at the numbers today... and seeing what happened two weeks ago. This means there are a lot more people sick that you realise (probably about three more doublings to go...), but after that, as happened in China, the number of new cases starts to drop pretty quickly.
Now, we'll go through it again, as a series of mini spikes. But at least we'll know what we're doing then.
Man up PBers.
Nah. While you were spending weeks thinking hard about which non entity was going to beat which other non entity in the Democrats bullshit, we were going deep into THE black swan of the last 70 years.
You've now focused your gaze here, spent a couple of days thinking about it and think you've got it all figured out based on one graph? Lol erm no.
We'll see soon enough. If Italy's new case number starts to decline next week then we'll know lockdowns work. (Hint: they do.)
This doesn't solve the problem - as I've said multiple times - of how we remove restrictions without restarting the issue. But it will demonstrate how to stop the number spiralling out of control.
And, by the way, I've written plenty of times about how serious this is. But I've pegged the death toll as a max of 80-100k, not a million. If anything, I'm probably slightly more optimistic now than I was a week ago.
Lol. I know lock downs work. I knew that 5 weeks ago. The problem is that the society we all live in is then DONE. Have you actually seen any of the experienced life behind the lock down in Italy or China? It involves not doing anything with a bit of welding people into their homes mixed in. For TWO YEARS.
China is relaxing the lockdowns already. After six weeks. Not two years.
I suggest you read the report by the Imperial team and put down the fag packet.
We will see what happens when China opens up again. (Hint: it will come back and the blow torches will be out again)
I have read it.
And it doesn't talk about two years with the UK being in total lockdown. It talks about some measures remaining in place for two years.
Some measures? Given the choices of: Schools / unis closed Over 70s locked at home Pubs, restaurants, theatres, cinemas shut. No mass gatherings
Which combination of these do you think is a no biggie?
“Everyone should be trying to follow these measures as much as is pragmatic.
For those who are over 70, have an underlying health condition or are pregnant, we strongly advise you to follow the above measures as much as you can, and to significantly limit your face-to-face interaction with friends and family if possible.
This advice is likely to be in place for some weeks.”
I've recently turned 70, in good health. I see nothing there stopping me going out in the car with the wife, popping in the local shop when its quiet for a few essentials. Am I wrong?
Quite. It’s so open and caveated to be largely meaningless. If you only have to ‘try’ and do it just ‘as much as is pragmatic’ or if you are particularly risk do ‘as much as you can’ and to limit interaction ‘if possible’, don’t be surprised if people don’t do it.
You would not write a anything remotely binding or forceful like this. The government do not ask you to try to pay your taxes as much is pragmatic.
How would you suggest they enforce it? Police stop people who look like they could be 70 or over and ask for proof of age?
Yes.
You sound as if you think there's some sort of paradox involved. Where's the paradox?
I expect the powers will be far more sweeping than just the over 70s.
The army and police may be on the streets within a month, effectively enforcing curfews and martial law
It is completely horrifying. Lockdown is almost certain in the autumn, and I suppose next spring as well. The economy is going to be absolute toast.
If people didn't believe it before, it is war.
I just read it
Basically, if we want to save half a million lives, we have to transform society, starting NOW (and possibly collapse the economy)
Jesus.
You guys have all gone completely nuts.
There is a two week gap between actions being taken and showing up in statistics of new cases.
You're staring at the numbers today... and seeing what happened two weeks ago. This means there are a lot more people sick that you realise (probably about three more doublings to go...), but after that, as happened in China, the number of new cases starts to drop pretty quickly.
Now, we'll go through it again, as a series of mini spikes. But at least we'll know what we're doing then.
Man up PBers.
Nah. While you were spending weeks thinking hard about which non entity was going to beat which other non entity in the Democrats bullshit, we were going deep into THE black swan of the last 70 years.
You've now focused your gaze here, spent a couple of days thinking about it and think you've got it all figured out based on one graph? Lol erm no.
We'll see soon enough. If Italy's new case number starts to decline next week then we'll know lockdowns work. (Hint: they do.)
This doesn't solve the problem - as I've said multiple times - of how we remove restrictions without restarting the issue. But it will demonstrate how to stop the number spiralling out of control.
And, by the way, I've written plenty of times about how serious this is. But I've pegged the death toll as a max of 80-100k, not a million. If anything, I'm probably slightly more optimistic now than I was a week ago.
Lol. I know lock downs work. I knew that 5 weeks ago. The problem is that the society we all live in is then DONE. Have you actually seen any of the experienced life behind the lock down in Italy or China? It involves not doing anything with a bit of welding people into their homes mixed in. For TWO YEARS.
China is relaxing the lockdowns already. After six weeks. Not two years.
Because they are desperate to kickstart the economy, because the CCP knows that its survival likely depends on GDP growth of 4%+.
I hope the Chinese prove me wrong. But I fear a return of this wretched bug, there, as they try to reopen, certainly by next winter. Which is just seven months away.
Incidentally., the Olympics are surely finished. Too many athletes will be ill, or vulnerable. They should accept it now.
Of course it going to come back!
But it's not coming back at 5,000 infections per day. It'll come back growing from a low level, and then they'll stamp on it again in two months or so.
And because they'll know what's coming, and because they have better testing now, and because they won't remove all the restrictions at once, the growth will likely come back at a (initally at first) much slower pace.
They'll have a series of bumps, perhaps two or three months apart. And each time, they'll be better able to deal with it.
It'll be extremely unpleasant. But it won't be terminal.
I can't believe that I spent the last 4 years thinking that Brexit would be the biggest issue in the history books about the early part of this century.
It's always the the things you don't see coming that are the worst...
“Everyone should be trying to follow these measures as much as is pragmatic.
For those who are over 70, have an underlying health condition or are pregnant, we strongly advise you to follow the above measures as much as you can, and to significantly limit your face-to-face interaction with friends and family if possible.
This advice is likely to be in place for some weeks.”
I've recently turned 70, in good health. I see nothing there stopping me going out in the car with the wife, popping in the local shop when its quiet for a few essentials. Am I wrong?
Quite. It’s so open and caveated to be largely meaningless. If you only have to ‘try’ and do it just ‘as much as is pragmatic’ or if you are particularly risk do ‘as much as you can’ and to limit interaction ‘if possible’, don’t be surprised if people don’t do it.
You would not write a anything remotely binding or forceful like this. The government do not ask you to try to pay your taxes as much is pragmatic.
How would you suggest they enforce it? Police stop people who look like they could be 70 or over and ask for proof of age?
As written I doubt that many people will stick to it. After a few days there will be so many ‘I’ll just pop down to the coop or go round to see Sheila’ moments. People tend to believe that the worst can’t happen to them, right up until it happens.
So if this advice is as critical as it is supposed to be it needs more bite. You can start by toughening up the language In the rules. Hell the green cross code was tougher than this. Get the police out to tell people to go home if required.
Johnson himself said it was okay to leave the house in order to exercise.
“Everyone should be trying to follow these measures as much as is pragmatic.
For those who are over 70, have an underlying health condition or are pregnant, we strongly advise you to follow the above measures as much as you can, and to significantly limit your face-to-face interaction with friends and family if possible.
This advice is likely to be in place for some weeks.”
I've recently turned 70, in good health. I see nothing there stopping me going out in the car with the wife, popping in the local shop when its quiet for a few essentials. Am I wrong?
Quite. It’s so open and caveated to be largely meaningless. If you only have to ‘try’ and do it just ‘as much as is pragmatic’ or if you are particularly risk do ‘as much as you can’ and to limit interaction ‘if possible’, don’t be surprised if people don’t do it.
You would not write a anything remotely binding or forceful like this. The government do not ask you to try to pay your taxes as much is pragmatic.
How would you suggest they enforce it? Police stop people who look like they could be 70 or over and ask for proof of age?
As written I doubt that many people will stick to it. After a few days there will be so many ‘I’ll just pop down to the coop or go round to see Sheila’ moments. People tend to believe that the worst can’t happen to them, right up until it happens.
So if this advice is as critical as it is supposed to be it needs more bite. You can start by toughening up the language In the rules. Hell the green cross code was tougher than this. Get the police out to tell people to go home if required.
I naively think that it would be most effective to do that as you approach the peak, to keep them inside at the moment of maximum risk.
It is completely horrifying. Lockdown is almost certain in the autumn, and I suppose next spring as well. The economy is going to be absolute toast.
If people didn't believe it before, it is war.
I just read it
Basically, if we want to save half a million lives, we have to transform society, starting NOW (and possibly collapse the economy)
Jesus.
You guys have all gone completely nuts.
There is a two week gap between actions being taken and showing up in statistics of new cases.
You're staring at the numbers today... and seeing what happened two weeks ago. This means there are a lot more people sick that you realise (probably about three more doublings to go...), but after that, as happened in China, the number of new cases starts to drop pretty quickly.
Now, we'll go through it again, as a series of mini spikes. But at least we'll know what we're doing then.
Man up PBers.
Nah. While you were spending weeks thinking hard about which non entity was going to beat which other non entity in the Democrats bullshit, we were going deep into THE black swan of the last 70 years.
You've now focused your gaze here, spent a couple of days thinking about it and think you've got it all figured out based on one graph? Lol erm no.
We'll see soon enough. If Italy's new case number starts to decline next week then we'll know lockdowns work. (Hint: they do.)
This doesn't solve the problem - as I've said multiple times - of how we remove restrictions without restarting the issue. But it will demonstrate how to stop the number spiralling out of control.
And, by the way, I've written plenty of times about how serious this is. But I've pegged the death toll as a max of 80-100k, not a million. If anything, I'm probably slightly more optimistic now than I was a week ago.
Lol. I know lock downs work. I knew that 5 weeks ago. The problem is that the society we all live in is then DONE. Have you actually seen any of the experienced life behind the lock down in Italy or China? It involves not doing anything with a bit of welding people into their homes mixed in. For TWO YEARS.
China is relaxing the lockdowns already. After six weeks. Not two years.
I suggest you read the report by the Imperial team and put down the fag packet.
We will see what happens when China opens up again. (Hint: it will come back and the blow torches will be out again)
I have read it.
And it doesn't talk about two years with the UK being in total lockdown. It talks about some measures remaining in place for two years.
Hand washing and home working will be given a permanent boost.
“Everyone should be trying to follow these measures as much as is pragmatic.
For those who are over 70, have an underlying health condition or are pregnant, we strongly advise you to follow the above measures as much as you can, and to significantly limit your face-to-face interaction with friends and family if possible.
This advice is likely to be in place for some weeks.”
I've recently turned 70, in good health. I see nothing there stopping me going out in the car with the wife, popping in the local shop when its quiet for a few essentials. Am I wrong?
Difficult call.
You may contract it in the local shop or something unexpected happens while you are out and as a result you take up precious NHS resources
I bet those pin number things are a hotspot.
Further blow to economy if everyone keeps purchases to the 30 contactless limit.
It is completely horrifying. Lockdown is almost certain in the autumn, and I suppose next spring as well. The economy is going to be absolute toast.
If people didn't believe it before, it is war.
I just read it
Basically, if we want to save half a million lives, we have to transform society, starting NOW (and possibly collapse the economy)
Jesus.
You guys have all gone completely nuts.
There is a two week gap between actions being taken and showing up in statistics of new cases.
You're staring at the numbers today... and seeing what happened two weeks ago. This means there are a lot more people sick that you realise (probably about three more doublings to go...), but after that, as happened in China, the number of new cases starts to drop pretty quickly.
Now, we'll go through it again, as a series of mini spikes. But at least we'll know what we're doing then.
Man up PBers.
Nah. While you were spending weeks thinking hard about which non entity was going to beat which other non entity in the Democrats bullshit, we were going deep into THE black swan of the last 70 years.
You've now focused your gaze here, spent a couple of days thinking about it and think you've got it all figured out based on one graph? Lol erm no.
We'll see soon enough. If Italy's new case number starts to decline next week then we'll know lockdowns work. (Hint: they do.)
This doesn't solve the problem - as I've said multiple times - of how we remove restrictions without restarting the issue. But it will demonstrate how to stop the number spiralling out of control.
And, by the way, I've written plenty of times about how serious this is. But I've pegged the death toll as a max of 80-100k, not a million. If anything, I'm probably slightly more optimistic now than I was a week ago.
Lol. I know lock downs work. I knew that 5 weeks ago. The problem is that the society we all live in is then DONE. Have you actually seen any of the experienced life behind the lock down in Italy or China? It involves not doing anything with a bit of welding people into their homes mixed in. For TWO YEARS.
China is relaxing the lockdowns already. After six weeks. Not two years.
Because they are desperate to kickstart the economy, because the CCP knows that its survival likely depends on GDP growth of 4%+.
I hope the Chinese prove me wrong. But I fear a return of this wretched bug, there, as they try to reopen, certainly by next winter. Which is just seven months away.
Incidentally., the Olympics are surely finished. Too many athletes will be ill, or vulnerable. They should accept it now.
We're going to be playing whack-a-mole with this wretched bug for a good while yet. Lives and treasure will be lost on the way.
But we do know what to look for, what works and (crucially) what doesn't.
We've got more smart, well-resourced people working on this than any previous epidemic. We've got governments finally paying attention properly.
I can't believe that I spent the last 4 years thinking that Brexit would be the biggest issue in the history books about the early part of this century.
I think that accolade goes to 9/11 and the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
“Everyone should be trying to follow these measures as much as is pragmatic.
For those who are over 70, have an underlying health condition or are pregnant, we strongly advise you to follow the above measures as much as you can, and to significantly limit your face-to-face interaction with friends and family if possible.
This advice is likely to be in place for some weeks.”
I've recently turned 70, in good health. I see nothing there stopping me going out in the car with the wife, popping in the local shop when its quiet for a few essentials. Am I wrong?
Difficult call.
You may contract it in the local shop or something unexpected happens while you are out and as a result you take up precious NHS resources
I bet those pin number things are a hotspot.
Further blow to economy if everyone keeps purchases to the 30 contactless limit.
Whilst recognising your comment is in jest, it is the easiest thing in the world for the banks to raise that £30 limit.
“Everyone should be trying to follow these measures as much as is pragmatic.
For those who are over 70, have an underlying health condition or are pregnant, we strongly advise you to follow the above measures as much as you can, and to significantly limit your face-to-face interaction with friends and family if possible.
This advice is likely to be in place for some weeks.”
I've recently turned 70, in good health. I see nothing there stopping me going out in the car with the wife, popping in the local shop when its quiet for a few essentials. Am I wrong?
Difficult call.
You may contract it in the local shop or something unexpected happens while you are out and as a result you take up precious NHS resources
I bet those pin number things are a hotspot.
Further blow to economy if everyone keeps purchases to the 30 contactless limit.
Petrol pumps another one. Just think before touching something "how many others will have touched this in the last few days".
Then proceed to spend the entire day washing your hands.
“Everyone should be trying to follow these measures as much as is pragmatic.
For those who are over 70, have an underlying health condition or are pregnant, we strongly advise you to follow the above measures as much as you can, and to significantly limit your face-to-face interaction with friends and family if possible.
This advice is likely to be in place for some weeks.”
I've recently turned 70, in good health. I see nothing there stopping me going out in the car with the wife, popping in the local shop when its quiet for a few essentials. Am I wrong?
Quite. It’s so open and caveated to be largely meaningless. If you only have to ‘try’ and do it just ‘as much as is pragmatic’ or if you are particularly risk do ‘as much as you can’ and to limit interaction ‘if possible’, don’t be surprised if people don’t do it.
You would not write a anything remotely binding or forceful like this. The government do not ask you to try to pay your taxes as much is pragmatic.
How would you suggest they enforce it? Police stop people who look like they could be 70 or over and ask for proof of age?
As written I doubt that many people will stick to it. After a few days there will be so many ‘I’ll just pop down to the coop or go round to see Sheila’ moments. People tend to believe that the worst can’t happen to them, right up until it happens.
So if this advice is as critical as it is supposed to be it needs more bite. You can start by toughening up the language In the rules. Hell the green cross code was tougher than this. Get the police out to tell people to go home if required.
I naively think that it would be most effective to do that as you approach the peak, to keep them inside at the moment of maximum risk.
Which according to the press announcement today, the rapid growth is starting now.
So. Let's do some back of the fag packet calculations. Let's assume that there are actually 50,000 people infected in the UK today. Let's assume that we'll see three more double-ings before shut down has an impact.
That means we go 50k -> 100k -> 200k ->400k. Let's then assume that even as the daily numbers start declining, it still doubles this iteration. That means that this wave sees 800k infected.
And let's assume I'm a bit optimistic, and it actually gets to 1,000,000 cases.
Not an unreasonable estimate.
Now, let's assume a 2.5% mortality rate. That's 25,000 deaths from infections that happen between now and end May.
The numbers drop off sharply in late April and May (because lockdowns). We then relax the controls, a bit at a time, maybe regionally, while encouraging people to be a bit more vigilant than normal, and implementing a very intensive testing regime. And we also stand ready to slam the breaks on again in the event of numbers going above a certain level.
The lesson Japan and South Korea is that done properly, you can keep infections below about 50/day doing this.
Now, it probably comes back in the Autumn. But we'll be better prepared next time. CV-19 (part two) will not involve us (or anyone else) being taken by surprise.
Here's the thing. Lockdowns work. They worked in Hubei. They will work in Italy and they will work in the UK.
That's why forecasts of a million dead are off. Because they forget that... lockdowns work.
Watch Italy. New cases are going to start coming down reasonably quickly, reasonably soon.
If virtually everybody locked in their house for 8 weeks the dry cough wuflu should be getting a proper dry slap. I agree with you.
Why so long for a vaccine though with effort that must be going on to produce one? It’s not that corona virus is new, nor knowledge how to produce vaccines.
Making vaccines is hard. They tend to be created by organisms rather than manufactured.
Bloody good invention, vaccines.
One of BJs chief medical swots said today a test wether you had it would be a game changer. How long till one of those? Do the organisms have to create one of those too when not too busy on the vaccine, like when waiting for something to grow in a tray thing they can butterfly into something else? Like growing two fingers for victory on the backs of mice to help keep morale up?
Not had, had had.
I didn’t mean had, I meant have had. I think you mean have had? But said had had. Though have had could be misconstrued like had had when I said had?
Thought Stephanie Flanders was a great guest on Newsnight. Made the point that, in economic terms, the diagnosis is simple: people aren’t earning (enough) money; and people are spending enough money. Nothing like the Byzantine complexity of 2008.
So the fiscal measures necessary need to inject the cash in the right places, where people will spend it not save it. That’s not an easy solution to find, but at least the problem is easily definable.
I doubt JM Keynes would have imagined countermeasures to the Paradox of Thrift on such a grand scale.
I'm fairly confident that the taps will be turned on big time tomorrow.
I am getting seriously pissed off with the Left questioning the response. It is all about the fact that they lost in Dec 2019 and they know, just know, that Johnson is an evil person.
So suddenly everyone of them is a plague expert and stats genius.
I really don't know why the new advice on pregnant women was issued. As far as I was aware they were a low risk group, being young, female and mostly healthy.
Yes I thought that was a bit odd. Could they be getting early evidence of a viral mutation that's starting to target pregnant women?
Swine Flu seemed to effect pregnant women more than other groups so this can happen?
Comments
"The group of people who we would want to take this advice particularly seriously are older people above 70, people who in adult life would normally be advised to have the flu vaccination, so these are people with chronic diseases such as chronic heart disease or chronic kidney disease, and also - as a precautionary measure because we are early in our understanding and we want to be sure - women who are pregnant."
I hope it goes well for you
That means we go 50k -> 100k -> 200k ->400k. Let's then assume that even as the daily numbers start declining, it still doubles this iteration. That means that this wave sees 800k infected.
And let's assume I'm a bit optimistic, and it actually gets to 1,000,000 cases.
Not an unreasonable estimate.
Now, let's assume a 2.5% mortality rate. That's 25,000 deaths from infections that happen between now and end May.
The numbers drop off sharply in late April and May (because lockdowns). We then relax the controls, a bit at a time, maybe regionally, while encouraging people to be a bit more vigilant than normal, and implementing a very intensive testing regime. And we also stand ready to slam the breaks on again in the event of numbers going above a certain level.
The lesson Japan and South Korea is that done properly, you can keep infections below about 50/day doing this.
Now, it probably comes back in the Autumn. But we'll be better prepared next time. CV-19 (part two) will not involve us (or anyone else) being taken by surprise.
Here's the thing. Lockdowns work. They worked in Hubei. They will work in Italy and they will work in the UK.
That's why forecasts of a million dead are off. Because they forget that... lockdowns work.
Watch Italy. New cases are going to start coming down reasonably quickly, reasonably soon.
What has the resident Balrog had to say in reply?
As for the arbitrary quarantine for 70 somethings, it is impossible to enforce without everyone having their dob printed on them somewhere, so it has to be voluntary doesn’t it?
I’m trying to rent a running machine and excercise bike from my mates gym to put on the garage - no one will be going there so he could use a little income
"People in at-risk groups will be asked within days to stay home for 12 weeks."
So they are not being asked to do that now, but they have been warned they will be asked to soon.
I would humbly suggest that is a message to sort out as many bits and bats that you need this week, because next week you will be asked to stay home.
The advice is coming.
I think it will mean that I can't leave the house from the weekend until my wife finishes her course of steroids.
Anyway....advice to my pbCOMers...stolen from Fox last night...
Stay safe....try to eat well, sleep well, don't drink too much, and get some exercise...these will help protect you from what is coming....
Good night.
This doesn't solve the problem - as I've said multiple times - of how we remove restrictions without restarting the issue. But it will demonstrate how to stop the number spiralling out of control.
And, by the way, I've written plenty of times about how serious this is. But I've pegged the death toll as a max of 80-100k, not a million. If anything, I'm probably slightly more optimistic now than I was a week ago.
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-guidance-on-social-distancing-and-for-vulnerable-people/guidance-on-social-distancing-for-everyone-in-the-uk-and-protecting-older-people-and-vulnerable-adults
“Everyone should be trying to follow these measures as much as is pragmatic.
For those who are over 70, have an underlying health condition or are pregnant, we strongly advise you to follow the above measures as much as you can, and to significantly limit your face-to-face interaction with friends and family if possible.
This advice is likely to be in place for some weeks.”
Why so long for a vaccine though with effort that must be going on to produce one? It’s not that corona virus is new, nor knowledge how to produce vaccines.
Depressing stuff really.
I think that is inevitably part of the plan. We want to use the capacity the NHS has this summer but we don't want it swamped. That means at some point the brakes have to be applied. Round about now as it turns out.
And somehow, you think we need to be in lockdown for two thirds of the time.
Both of those assumptions are incorrect.
Imagine the number infected doubles every five days.
5, 10, 20, 40, 80, 160, 320, 640...
Let's say six weeks. And then you implement a two week lockdown. And then you start again.
But here's the thing.
You don't go straight to a free for all. When the infection numbers are down to (say) 50 a day, you slowly relax the rules. So, you don't go straight to doubling every five days.
Japan and South Korea and China all have broad control of this. China did it after a lockdown in about six weeks.
Do you think we have some special genetic issue that means we can't do that?
It’s not impossible I’ll find myself in the same position if this goes on too long...
My wife and I are going into isolation as we are both high risk and I have copd which to some on here would warrant a DNR notice. We have made arrangements with our children and grandchildren that we will not see them for some months but will use whats app and social media
In the worst case I could succumb to covid 19 without seeing my family again
Many of us are affected and nothing will be the same post covid 19 but my wife and I have to trust the science and Boris for our own peace of mind
We have so many blessings and 12 weeks or more in isolation together is something we will do as our deep love and commitment for each other over nearly 60 years has never been stronger
And we are fairly relaxed about it though I will miss the football and sport over the
summer months and being prevented from visiting our son and daughter in Vancouver in May
Whats the purpose of a lockdown after new cases have been reduced to (say) 20/day? It's rather pointless then.
We will see what happens when China opens up again. (Hint: it will come back and the blow torches will be out again)
I really don't know why the new advice on pregnant women was issued. As far as I was aware they were a low risk group, being young, female and mostly healthy.
Testing, Testing Testing as the WHO DG said, we have to know who has it, if we want to be effective.
But I'm also saying it's not going to be like having all the deaths of WW1 happening in a single year.
Simply, even assume if you assume that the death rate of symptomatic cases is 5% (and it won't be), then you'd need 20 million symptomatic people to get to that level.
Which would possible, if there are very few asymptomatic cases and the government implemented no measures to prevent its spread (like lockdowns). But, it looks like these assumptions are both false.
Ultimately, the big problem we all have here, and I keep repeating this, is that we're staring into the rear view mirror. Nothing we do seems to work, because the number we're seeing moving is the number from two weeks ago... before we'd started to do anything.
Go and look at the report. You get this at your age, you have a very high chance of ending up in hospital and if you do requiring ICU.
The ramp up with age of not only requiring hospitalization, but crucially ICU is enormous post 50.
One of BJs chief medical swots said today a test wether you had it would be a game changer. How long till one of those? Do the organisms have to create one of those too when not too busy on the vaccine, like when waiting for something to grow in a tray thing they can butterfly into something else? Like growing two fingers for victory on the backs of mice to help keep morale up?
You would not write a anything remotely binding or forceful like this. The government do not ask you to try to pay your taxes as much is pragmatic.
And it doesn't talk about two years with the UK being in total lockdown. It talks about some measures remaining in place for two years.
You may contract it in the local shop or something unexpected happens while you are out and as a result you take up precious NHS resources
Maybe not, maybe its only rcs who has?
He's still going.
Never give up hope.
Also:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wilko_Johnson#Cancer
You sound as if you think there's some sort of paradox involved. Where's the paradox?
So the fiscal measures necessary need to inject the cash in the right places, where people will spend it not save it. That’s not an easy solution to find, but at least the problem is easily definable.
I doubt JM Keynes would have imagined countermeasures to the Paradox of Thrift on such a grand scale.
'Don’t be ridiculous. It’s far more. SSP is only paid to the sick not the unemployed and only lasts for 14 days. You cannot live on it for months and months as you seem to think. Sunak’s Budget is inadequate and out of date.'
Of course you can given you will only be allowed out of the house to buy food, if people are self isolating for months SSP can be extended but the amount paid stays the same
Making one that is effective, and safe, and proving it to be so through testing, is a long and hard process. And manufacturing it in bulk expensive and time consuming.
So if this advice is as critical as it is supposed to be it needs more bite. You can start by toughening up the language In the rules. Hell the green cross code was tougher than this. Get the police out to tell people to go home if required.
Schools / unis closed
Over 70s locked at home
Pubs, restaurants, theatres, cinemas shut.
No mass gatherings
Which combination of these do you think is a no biggie?
But it's not coming back at 5,000 infections per day. It'll come back growing from a low level, and then they'll stamp on it again in two months or so.
And because they'll know what's coming, and because they have better testing now, and because they won't remove all the restrictions at once, the growth will likely come back at a (initally at first) much slower pace.
They'll have a series of bumps, perhaps two or three months apart. And each time, they'll be better able to deal with it.
It'll be extremely unpleasant. But it won't be terminal.
But we do know what to look for, what works and (crucially) what doesn't.
We've got more smart, well-resourced people working on this than any previous epidemic. We've got governments finally paying attention properly.
We're at the end of the beginning.
Then proceed to spend the entire day washing your hands.
I hope you are right.
So suddenly everyone of them is a plague expert and stats genius.
https://twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/1239683085299482626
Swine Flu seemed to effect pregnant women more than other groups so this can happen?