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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » After the fall
If shrunk to a comparable size, the earth would be smoother than a ping pong ball. The earth’s atmosphere is thinner than the skin on a ping pong ball. Most of the time we forget how much our whole life is lived in a tiny margin and how dependent we are on its seeming stability.
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OK, pb-ers - how do we connect with our older friends and family while they are under lockdown? Is there a way to play Scrabble or Bridge with them online for example? What fun can we have as a group?
The US will see its economy contract this year, as will China, as will the EU.
Now, it's possible that China has a great second half (wouldn't surprise me a bit), but it's not going to have increased economic output for the year given how that 1H is going to be meaningfully down.
Italy, for example, spends about 3% of GDP on importing oil from abroad. If the price of oil halves, that means they only send 1.5% abroad.
Now, that's not going to help them much in the first half of the year, but it will in the second.
The health implications alone of Covid-19 are, of course, huge. But the economic ones are just massive. Huge numbers of businesses will be going under over the coming months - solid businesses run by good, responsible people who pay decent wages, but who rely on a healthy cashflow and never factored a global pandemic into their plans.
When they go south, large numbers of people will lose their jobs, demand will drop, communities will fragment and depression will ensue. That's how these things work. The cost of that will be far, far greater than any the government - and us taxpayers subsequently - will have to bear to prevent it.
This is an Act of God, a totally unpredictable Black Swan event, something this government and others could never have reasonably predicted. But as Alastair says, it has happened and it falls to us to deal with it - and to accept that in doing so it is going to exact a heavy price.
[The PM] said the advice to avoid unnecessary social contact was particularly important for the over-70s, people with underlying health conditions and pregnant women. He said:
"This advice about avoiding all unnecessary social contact, is particularly important for people over 70, for pregnant women and for those with some health conditions."
He also said that there would be further specific advice soon for people with the most serious health conditions:
In a few days’ time – by this coming weekend – it will be necessary to go further and to ensure that those with the most serious health conditions are largely shielded from social contact for around 12 weeks.
And again the reason for doing this in the next few days, rather than earlier or later, is that this is going to be very disruptive for people who have such conditions, and difficult for them, but, I believe, it’s now necessary.
And we want to ensure that this period of shielding, this period of maximum protection coincides with the peak of the disease.
So I think you should be very careful over the next few days, but use the time to prepare as best you can for a quite long period of isolation.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2020/mar/16/boris-johnson-press-conference-coronavirus-live-firms-could-soon-be-allowed-to-run-reduced-services-because-of-coronavirus-shapps-suggests-politics-live
'He also tells MPs that measures on shielding will be for those who have "significant health conditions”.They will be contacted by the NHS, he says.
But he adds the measures were not aimed at the "generality of over 70s who are healthy".
He says the guidance for those over 70 is the same as for people of working age, except that the government strongly advises social distancing measures.'
So is this a blanket measure for the over 70s or not?
https://twitter.com/christianwolmar/status/1239227670602416131?s=20
The answer to this you massive tool, is Yes. I don't care if you climbed mount Everest in your under-pants last year, you get this and you have a 10% chance of dying. Normally if you want to risk your life I would say I don't care, but if my Dad gets it after taking all the right precautions and this bell-end is taking up an ICU bed....
As I previously mentioned, this is my concern. People have this natural tendency to think but I am a special case, therefore it can't apply to me.
https://us.cnn.com/2020/03/16/economy/job-losses-coronavirus/index.html
The figures are listed in a table and one column has the heading "Zahl bestätigter Fälle (darunter Todesfälle)" which translates as "number of confirmed cases (of which deaths)". So it is clear that the numbers in brackets are people who have tested positive and have died, regardless of what they have died of.
The numbers in brackets, for yesterday's publication, add up to 13.
And some in our media still think this is all about the shits and giggles of stitching Boris up.
Wonder what the odds on the old Yellow Vest LARPers come out on as usual?
The sorts of people who go out in a lock down in Spain and chant football songs with shopping trolleys full of beers.
Alternatively the morons back at home fighting over 1kg bags of sugar. We might need the army protecting supermarket staff soon if I what I heard from yesterday continues. There will be a riot.
How the hell did they not bother to check this before?
Cicero: "If you have a garden and a library, you have everything you need."
Hoping old Cicero was right.
https://twitter.com/whippletom/status/1239619449533194242?s=20
Clearly the initial model didn't anticipate anywhere near as many people requiring ICU and especially not among the young.
https://twitter.com/whippletom/status/1239630012275449863?s=20
No vaccine or massive break through and we are all f##ked.
Are the PBers that were defending the (apparent) Gov't policy on this going to admit they got it wrong ?
Why has Germany not got these rates?
https://governor.maryland.gov/2020/03/16/governor-hogan-orders-closure-of-bars-and-restaurants-announces-unprecedented-public-health-surge-to-combat-covid-19-crisis/
Guess we'll have to travel to DC or VA to eat out now
There is no easy answer. But at least the herd strategy had some light at the end of the tunnel.
The perpetual lock down is just too brutal to contemplate. It is people starving territory. Dig for Britain stuff.
Sell everything.
Party politics, brexit etc are, at the moment irrelevant all we can do is share information which helps to frame decisions, both financial and betting. As Bruce would have said ...keep posting!
Macron announces a total shut down of French society, but along with it, an actual plan for mitigation:
https://twitter.com/kjalee/status/1239634230973521922?s=21
Boris just says ‘you shouldn’t attend social events. Any questions?’
I'm fine, but nervous like many others.
I actually was thinking of another Gandalf quote which might be pertinent to one poster: ‘Deserves death! I daresay he does. Many who live deserve death. And some who die deserve life. Can you give it to them? Then do not be too eager to deal out death in judgement.’
Asian countries called this right, I believe. They had the experience of SARS
Our food growers will also be locked down for 18 months too. How will they grow our food?
I refuse to believe that those officials are either evil or heartless or incompetent, which are assumptions underlying many of the comments on here.
Thanks Alastair (and EAP!)
Interesting that she's referring to our scientists as where their actions are coming from..
There are many of us in the highest risk category doing all we can to isolate ourselves and prevent becoming a burden on the NHS and your insensitivity reflects a seriously unsympathetic attitude to the elderly and life itself
You need to think before you spout such ill considered comments
We all need to be kinder and understanding.
You have a big lesson to learn
It is clear that the modellers here think you need many months lockdown.