Well, the Waitrose guy has been and gone. He says it's busier than Christmas with the home deliveries, they are calling people in on days off, and yesterday was their highest volume of online orders ever.
And, yes, they have absolutely no toilet roll - he says there are people outside the store before it opens each day, and they go straight to the toilet roll aisle and within minutes whatever has been put out that day has gone. Madness.
Surely if you are locked down, with unlimited time on your hands, and have a shower and a loo in the same room... I do have a couple of multipacks, but mainly as a trading position.
How well do you think the UK government is handling the Coronavirus outbreak? Very well: 8 Fairly well: 39 Fairly Poorly: 19 Very Poorly: 14 Not Sure: 20
Net "Well" : +14
Splits along predictable demographic & party lines - for example, 65+ net well is +39
@Anabobazina regarding smoking from the previous thread. A few of the reasons why the government may not be strongly advocating quitting as part in of their anti-coronavirus strategy. The stress of quitting (particularly under these circumstances) can in some instances have greater health drawbacks in the short term than continuing. Quitting may lead to changes in habits that would be unpredictable and not necessarily aid containment eg outdoor fag break swapped for indoor interaction. Quitters who need NHS support and advice may tie up services needed for other things. Etc.
As someone who quit 16 years ago it is just about the most difficult habit to overcome.
Furthermore, I would assume stopping now is a bit too late to help in covid 19
I didn't want to say that last one as it's never too late! But yes, it is a point.
Do you have a link to that Kantar poll G?
Well done BIG G. I went cold turkey on cigarettes 7.5 yrs ago . it was blooming hard thing to do. I had voices in my head telling me it would be alright just to have one. It required considerable presence of mind to refuse offers from friends and even more difficult was stopping myself buying a pack of B and H.... after a week, the cravings diminished and I now cannot bear the smell, and its particularly unpleasant smelling cigarette smoke from others clothes.I guess is impossible to get rid of , bar dry cleaning.
I gave up 15 months ago because I suddenly got shit scared of getting cancer...... it wasn’t that difficult if you have a motivation to do so.
For those who were bemoaning the lack of EU action yesterday, they have waived the " use it or lose it " rule for airport slots. This saves airlines having to run empty flights just to keep the slots.
And in fairness they announced £25bn of emergency spending which seems to be focused at helping health systems keep going. But the ECB needs to watch and learn from what the BoE has done this morning. A massive loosening of monetary policy is necessary to try to mitigate the damage to the economy and Member States do not have the full range of tools themselves.
And as has been pointed out numerous times, the government will have been given a range of options. Simple things like advising those with respiratory infections (Nadine) to self isolate were reasonably obvious to non experts a week ago.
The government will been given a very strong steer by the scientific experts. (I know some of the people involved on the statistical side, and I have a very high opinion of their judgment).
Whatever, that does not excuse Rory Stewart from tweeting a bollox graph made up by a journalist & author. The person who created the graph (Tomas Pueyo) has his profile on LinkedIn, so you evaluate for yourself whether to trust it, based on his experience. He seems to be a Bay Area SeanT.
This is not just about *science*. This is about judging benefits and costs. That is inherently political and is a value-judgement.
The government are not trying to *minimse* deaths - that is not the only parameter in their utility function. If it was, then that can purely be informed by epidemiology.
Instead they are trying to balance the harm to the economy with public health. They are miscalculating in my view and I think in due course that will be the view of the wider public.
Re Covid 19 fpt.. my friend is on a Fred Olsen ship but do not know the name of it.. He got on in Barbados iirc.
Olsen's Braemar is due into Barbados tomorrow for disembarkation (but didn't call there earlier, coming from Dominican Republic and originally Southampton). it was turned away at Dominican two weeks back when eight passengers had flu symptoms, but they are all apparently better. Passengers report that yesterday two of their number tested positive for Corona. There is also a Canadian who left the ship and returned home who is one of the Canadian positives.
The tests off the ship are being airlifted to Holland for testing; meanwhile it is being held at Curacao and I can see another Caribbean Princess episode developing here.
There seems little point in providing money for research into epidemiology, public health and transmission of infectious diseases.
There are untrained experts on twitter that provide their insights & knowledge for free.
"There seems little point in providing money for research into epidemiology, public health and transmission of infectious diseases."
Well, Trump certainly agrees with that.
The graph that Rory Stewart has tweeted showing a neat "40 percent difference" in red is ludicrous. Any serious modeller would have confidence limits, for a start.
The graph was created by someone called Tomas Pueyo, who seems to be a journalist and author, but he knows enough to create a simple model. We might as well ask SeanT & Henrietta to make the graph and get Rory to tweet it.
Rory is someone who is coming out of this badly. My opinion of him has diminished very substantially. Who would have thought he would handle this worse than Boris?
I think Boris realises how very damaging it would be to do something against the advice of his scientific and medical advisors.
And epidemiology is a mature science on which a lot of research has been done for decades, and sophisticated modelling techniques are possible. So, Boris is right to listen to his experts (who are not party political).
Like yourself, I quite liked Rory until a couple of days ago, almost to the point of wondering if Shaun Bailey should stand aside and give him a free run at Sadiq.
Not now, he's quickly turned into yet another of the amateur internet epidemiologists who think - without evidence - that their opinion is more important that those of the Chief Medical Officer and Chief Scientist.
Politicians and journalists really need to shut up and listen to the genuine experts. As someone suggested here yesterday, the media should be sending their science or health correspondents to the government briefings, rather than the political correspondents.
Sorry, but this is balls. You might just as well say we shouldn't comment on government economic policy.
by all means comment.. if you have the professional qualification to do so.
@Anabobazina regarding smoking from the previous thread. A few of the reasons why the government may not be strongly advocating quitting as part in of their anti-coronavirus strategy. The stress of quitting (particularly under these circumstances) can in some instances have greater health drawbacks in the short term than continuing. Quitting may lead to changes in habits that would be unpredictable and not necessarily aid containment eg outdoor fag break swapped for indoor interaction. Quitters who need NHS support and advice may tie up services needed for other things. Etc.
As someone who quit 16 years ago it is just about the most difficult habit to overcome.
Furthermore, I would assume stopping now is a bit too late to help in covid 19
Stopping now will help.
A smoker who stops today: - if they are positive and have symptoms the disease will not hit as hard (compromise of lung function is one of the main factors in the disease) - if they are positive but as yet symptom free the disease progression will be slower and not as severe. - someone who is negative will be less likely to catch the disease, as they are putting their hands to their mouth less often, and for some people they will mingle less with strangers, accept cigarettes from friends less etc. -within just a few days the lungs will start to become more efficient, and the blood will have less carbonmonoxide meaning that the person has to breathe less air in, meaning lower chances of infection. -within a couple of weeks the immune system and general health will be significantly better, reducing the chance of infection.
Another relevant point that I think many people overlook. Someone who meets a positive person is not bound to be positive or immune. The chances are that none or too little of the virus really gets into the body to take hold.
There seems little point in providing money for research into epidemiology, public health and transmission of infectious diseases.
There are untrained experts on twitter that provide their insights & knowledge for free.
"There seems little point in providing money for research into epidemiology, public health and transmission of infectious diseases."
Well, Trump certainly agrees with that.
The graph that Rory Stewart has tweeted showing a neat "40 percent difference" in red is ludicrous. Any serious modeller would have confidence limits, for a start.
The graph was created by someone called Tomas Pueyo, who seems to be a journalist and author, but he knows enough to create a simple model. We might as well ask SeanT & Henrietta to make the graph and get Rory to tweet it.
Rory is someone who is coming out of this badly. My opinion of him has diminished very substantially. Who would have thought he would handle this worse than Boris?
I think Boris realises how very damaging it would be to do something against the advice of his scientific and medical advisors.
And epidemiology is a mature science on which a lot of research has been done for decades, and sophisticated modelling techniques are possible. So, Boris is right to listen to his experts (who are not party political).
Like yourself, I quite liked Rory until a couple of days ago, almost to the point of wondering if Shaun Bailey should stand aside and give him a free run at Sadiq.
Not now, he's quickly turned into yet another of the amateur internet epidemiologists who think - without evidence - that their opinion is more important that those of the Chief Medical Officer and Chief Scientist.
Politicians and journalists really need to shut up and listen to the genuine experts. As someone suggested here yesterday, the media should be sending their science or health correspondents to the government briefings, rather than the political correspondents.
Sorry, but this is balls. You might just as well say we shouldn't comment on government economic policy.
You can comment on it. You can link to evidence from reputable sources.
Rory has done something different.
He has linked to a graph produced by a journalist, author and motivational public speaker and argued that it has the credibility of work by professional epidemiologists, data scientists and statisticians.
I can comment on something and show a graph produced by my simple-minded code using the Principles of Eadric-ology. But, I should not expect anything other than criticism and ridicule. That is what Rory deserves & should get.
There seems little point in providing money for research into epidemiology, public health and transmission of infectious diseases.
There are untrained experts on twitter that provide their insights & knowledge for free.
"There seems little point in providing money for research into epidemiology, public health and transmission of infectious diseases."
Well, Trump certainly agrees with that.
The graph that Rory Stewart has tweeted showing a neat "40 percent difference" in red is ludicrous. Any serious modeller would have confidence limits, for a start.
The graph was created by someone called Tomas Pueyo, who seems to be a journalist and author, but he knows enough to create a simple model. We might as well ask SeanT & Henrietta to make the graph and get Rory to tweet it.
Rory is someone who is coming out of this badly. My opinion of him has diminished very substantially. Who would have thought he would handle this worse than Boris?
I think Boris realises how very damaging it would be to do something against the advice of his scientific and medical advisors.
And epidemiology is a mature science on which a lot of research has been done for decades, and sophisticated modelling techniques are possible. So, Boris is right to listen to his experts (who are not party political).
Like yourself, I quite liked Rory until a couple of days ago, almost to the point of wondering if Shaun Bailey should stand aside and give him a free run at Sadiq.
Not now, he's quickly turned into yet another of the amateur internet epidemiologists who think - without evidence - that their opinion is more important that those of the Chief Medical Officer and Chief Scientist.
Politicians and journalists really need to shut up and listen to the genuine experts. As someone suggested here yesterday, the media should be sending their science or health correspondents to the government briefings, rather than the political correspondents.
+1 to that. I never thought I'd say it, but Johnson over Stewart here - Johnson at least seems to be leaving it up to the experts.
There seems little point in providing money for research into epidemiology, public health and transmission of infectious diseases.
There are untrained experts on twitter that provide their insights & knowledge for free.
"There seems little point in providing money for research into epidemiology, public health and transmission of infectious diseases."
Well, Trump certainly agrees with that.
The graph that Rory Stewart has tweeted showing a neat "40 percent difference" in red is ludicrous. Any serious modeller would have confidence limits, for a start.
The graph was created by someone called Tomas Pueyo, who seems to be a journalist and author, but he knows enough to create a simple model. We might as well ask SeanT & Henrietta to make the graph and get Rory to tweet it.
Rory is someone who is coming out of this badly. My opinion of him has diminished very substantially. Who would have thought he would handle this worse than Boris?
I think Boris realises how very damaging it would be to do something against the advice of his scientific and medical advisors.
And epidemiology is a mature science on which a lot of research has been done for decades, and sophisticated modelling techniques are possible. So, Boris is right to listen to his experts (who are not party political).
Like yourself, I quite liked Rory until a couple of days ago, almost to the point of wondering if Shaun Bailey should stand aside and give him a free run at Sadiq.
Not now, he's quickly turned into yet another of the amateur internet epidemiologists who think - without evidence - that their opinion is more important that those of the Chief Medical Officer and Chief Scientist.
Politicians and journalists really need to shut up and listen to the genuine experts. As someone suggested here yesterday, the media should be sending their science or health correspondents to the government briefings, rather than the political correspondents.
Sorry, but this is balls. You might just as well say we shouldn't comment on government economic policy.
We'll agree to disagree there. IMO this is too important for petty politics to get in the way, everyone needs to be singing from the same hymn sheet to the public otherwise the messages become confused.
If the government's politicians start arguing with the CMO and CS in public, then it's fair enough to criticise the response, but right now they're all saying exactly the same thing - while the media are giving airtime to a bunch of amateur epidemiologists who are either needlessly scaremongering or saying it's nothing to worry about.
There seems little point in providing money for research into epidemiology, public health and transmission of infectious diseases.
There are untrained experts on twitter that provide their insights & knowledge for free.
"There seems little point in providing money for research into epidemiology, public health and transmission of infectious diseases."
Well, Trump certainly agrees with that.
The graph that Rory Stewart has tweeted showing a neat "40 percent difference" in red is ludicrous. Any serious modeller would have confidence limits, for a start.
The graph was created by someone called Tomas Pueyo, who seems to be a journalist and author, but he knows enough to create a simple model. We might as well ask SeanT & Henrietta to make the graph and get Rory to tweet it.
Rory is someone who is coming out of this badly. My opinion of him has diminished very substantially. Who would have thought he would handle this worse than Boris?
I think Boris realises how very damaging it would be to do something against the advice of his scientific and medical advisors.
And epidemiology is a mature science on which a lot of research has been done for decades, and sophisticated modelling techniques are possible. So, Boris is right to listen to his experts (who are not party political).
Like yourself, I quite liked Rory until a couple of days ago, almost to the point of wondering if Shaun Bailey should stand aside and give him a free run at Sadiq.
Not now, he's quickly turned into yet another of the amateur internet epidemiologists who think - without evidence - that their opinion is more important that those of the Chief Medical Officer and Chief Scientist.
Politicians and journalists really need to shut up and listen to the genuine experts. As someone suggested here yesterday, the media should be sending their science or health correspondents to the government briefings, rather than the political correspondents.
Sorry, but this is balls. You might just as well say we shouldn't comment on government economic policy.
by all means comment.. if you have the professional qualification to do so.
I think it's legitimate to quote people, random people on Twitter for example, and then it is up to others to decide on the validity of the content.
Well, the Waitrose guy has been and gone. He says it's busier than Christmas with the home deliveries, they are calling people in on days off, and yesterday was their highest volume of online orders ever.
And, yes, they have absolutely no toilet roll - he says there are people outside the store before it opens each day, and they go straight to the toilet roll aisle and within minutes whatever has been put out that day has gone. Madness.
Is there something special about Waitrose bog roll ?
A health minister catching it in the early days isn't the scenario they will have thought of.
It happened very publicaly in Iran, and it has been spreading around governments of other countries too, so if they haven't thought it could happen here that would be incompetent.
Given their lifestyle they are particularly susceptible
There seems little point in providing money for research into epidemiology, public health and transmission of infectious diseases.
There are untrained experts on twitter that provide their insights & knowledge for free.
"There seems little point in providing money for research into epidemiology, public health and transmission of infectious diseases."
Well, Trump certainly agrees with that.
The graph that Rory Stewart has tweeted showing a neat "40 percent difference" in red is ludicrous. Any serious modeller would have confidence limits, for a start.
The graph was created by someone called Tomas Pueyo, who seems to be a journalist and author, but he knows enough to create a simple model. We might as well ask SeanT & Henrietta to make the graph and get Rory to tweet it.
Rory is someone who is coming out of this badly. My opinion of him has diminished very substantially. Who would have thought he would handle this worse than Boris?
I think Boris realises how very damaging it would be to do something against the advice of his scientific and medical advisors.
And epidemiology is a mature science on which a lot of research has been done for decades, and sophisticated modelling techniques are possible. So, Boris is right to listen to his experts (who are not party political).
Like yourself, I quite liked Rory until a couple of days ago, almost to the point of wondering if Shaun Bailey should stand aside and give him a free run at Sadiq.
Not now, he's quickly turned into yet another of the amateur internet epidemiologists who think - without evidence - that their opinion is more important that those of the Chief Medical Officer and Chief Scientist.
Politicians and journalists really need to shut up and listen to the genuine experts. As someone suggested here yesterday, the media should be sending their science or health correspondents to the government briefings, rather than the political correspondents.
+1 to that. I never thought I'd say it, but Johnson over Stewart here - Johnson at least seems to be leaving it up to the experts.
He is, but there seem to be many expert views on this. That means there's quite likely to be a political judgement going on as well.
@Anabobazina regarding smoking from the previous thread. A few of the reasons why the government may not be strongly advocating quitting as part in of their anti-coronavirus strategy. The stress of quitting (particularly under these circumstances) can in some instances have greater health drawbacks in the short term than continuing. Quitting may lead to changes in habits that would be unpredictable and not necessarily aid containment eg outdoor fag break swapped for indoor interaction. Quitters who need NHS support and advice may tie up services needed for other things. Etc.
As someone who quit 16 years ago it is just about the most difficult habit to overcome.
Furthermore, I would assume stopping now is a bit too late to help in covid 19
I didn't want to say that last one as it's never too late! But yes, it is a point.
Do you have a link to that Kantar poll G?
Well done BIG G. I went cold turkey on cigarettes 7.5 yrs ago . it was blooming hard thing to do. I had voices in my head telling me it would be alright just to have one. It required considerable presence of mind to refuse offers from friends and even more difficult was stopping myself buying a pack of B and H.... after a week, the cravings diminished and I now cannot bear the smell, and its particularly unpleasant smelling cigarette smoke from others clothes.I guess is impossible to get rid of , bar dry cleaning.
Very much my experience but it took 3 months cold turkey to achieve it
Now I am so against smoking and cannot stand being near anyone smoking or vaping
During my copd health check 2 years ago the nurse commented that stopping smoking had saved my life
Well, the Waitrose guy has been and gone. He says it's busier than Christmas with the home deliveries, they are calling people in on days off, and yesterday was their highest volume of online orders ever.
And, yes, they have absolutely no toilet roll - he says there are people outside the store before it opens each day, and they go straight to the toilet roll aisle and within minutes whatever has been put out that day has gone. Madness.
Is there something special about Waitrose bog roll ?
There's no shortage in Tesco and Morrisons.
It may reflect on the demographic most inclined to panic, I guess? (edit/ and/or be more up with the news)
There seems little point in providing money for research into epidemiology, public health and transmission of infectious diseases.
There are untrained experts on twitter that provide their insights & knowledge for free.
"There seems little point in providing money for research into epidemiology, public health and transmission of infectious diseases."
Well, Trump certainly agrees with that.
The graph that Rory Stewart has tweeted showing a neat "40 percent difference" in red is ludicrous. Any serious modeller would have confidence limits, for a start.
The graph was created by someone called Tomas Pueyo, who seems to be a journalist and author, but he knows enough to create a simple model. We might as well ask SeanT & Henrietta to make the graph and get Rory to tweet it.
Rory is someone who is coming out of this badly. My opinion of him has diminished very substantially. Who would have thought he would handle this worse than Boris?
I think Boris realises how very damaging it would be to do something against the advice of his scientific and medical advisors.
And epidemiology is a mature science on which a lot of research has been done for decades, and sophisticated modelling techniques are possible. So, Boris is right to listen to his experts (who are not party political).
Like yourself, I quite liked Rory until a couple of days ago, almost to the point of wondering if Shaun Bailey should stand aside and give him a free run at Sadiq.
Not now, he's quickly turned into yet another of the amateur internet epidemiologists who think - without evidence - that their opinion is more important that those of the Chief Medical Officer and Chief Scientist.
Politicians and journalists really need to shut up and listen to the genuine experts. As someone suggested here yesterday, the media should be sending their science or health correspondents to the government briefings, rather than the political correspondents.
+1 to that. I never thought I'd say it, but Johnson over Stewart here - Johnson at least seems to be leaving it up to the experts.
Yes. It’s all the more troubling because Rory was a Cabinet Minister not so long ago and should know better. We can forgive people like some posters here for second guessing the CMO based on their morning tea leaves, but not him.
There seems little point in providing money for research into epidemiology, public health and transmission of infectious diseases.
There are untrained experts on twitter that provide their insights & knowledge for free.
"There seems little point in providing money for research into epidemiology, public health and transmission of infectious diseases."
Well, Trump certainly agrees with that.
The graph that Rory Stewart has tweeted showing a neat "40 percent difference" in red is ludicrous. Any serious modeller would have confidence limits, for a start.
The graph was created by someone called Tomas Pueyo, who seems to be a journalist and author, but he knows enough to create a simple model. We might as well ask SeanT & Henrietta to make the graph and get Rory to tweet it.
Rory is someone who is coming out of this badly. My opinion of him has diminished very substantially. Who would have thought he would handle this worse than Boris?
I think Boris realises how very damaging it would be to do something against the advice of his scientific and medical advisors.
And epidemiology is a mature science on which a lot of research has been done for decades, and sophisticated modelling techniques are possible. So, Boris is right to listen to his experts (who are not party political).
Like yourself, I quite liked Rory until a couple of days ago, almost to the point of wondering if Shaun Bailey should stand aside and give him a free run at Sadiq.
Not now, he's quickly turned into yet another of the amateur internet epidemiologists who think - without evidence - that their opinion is more important that those of the Chief Medical Officer and Chief Scientist.
Politicians and journalists really need to shut up and listen to the genuine experts. As someone suggested here yesterday, the media should be sending their science or health correspondents to the government briefings, rather than the political correspondents.
Sorry, but this is balls. You might just as well say we shouldn't comment on government economic policy.
by all means comment.. if you have the professional qualification to do so.
I think it's legitimate to quote people, random people on Twitter for example, and then it is up to others to decide on the validity of the content.
So long as they are presented as random person from twatter
Looking at the FTSE we are so Wall Street's bitches.
Still little sign of a decisive assault on 24000, which is holding for now.
Rishi will rescue us this afternoon (perhaps)
I say it quite often that equities is really the only game in town for the majority of investors.
A friend I was with yesterday bought puts (now sold at a profit!) on the Dow and FTSEa short while ago which sounds like the type of trading you are doing. But for almost everyone else buy and hold is their (usually outsourced) strategy.
I'd be interested to know whether @Ishmael_Z had gone back into the markets again yet.
Well, the Waitrose guy has been and gone. He says it's busier than Christmas with the home deliveries, they are calling people in on days off, and yesterday was their highest volume of online orders ever.
And, yes, they have absolutely no toilet roll - he says there are people outside the store before it opens each day, and they go straight to the toilet roll aisle and within minutes whatever has been put out that day has gone. Madness.
Is there something special about Waitrose bog roll ?
There's no shortage in Tesco and Morrisons.
No, just something special about ******* who shop at Waitrose.
And as has been pointed out numerous times, the government will have been given a range of options. Simple things like advising those with respiratory infections (Nadine) to self isolate were reasonably obvious to non experts a week ago.
The government will been given a very strong steer by the scientific experts. (I know some of the people involved on the statistical side, and I have a very high opinion of their judgment).
Whatever, that does not excuse Rory Stewart from tweeting a bollox graph made up by a journalist & author. The person who created the graph (Tomas Pueyo) has his profile on LinkedIn, so you evaluate for yourself whether to trust it, based on his experience. He seems to be a Bay Area SeanT.
I'm not going to make any case for Pueyo - other than to say that if the government were more open about the detailed advice they were being given, such efforts would be rendered irrelevant.
The reason I pointed out the Taiwan example is that they reacted a great deal more promptly - and their VP is an epidemiologist, and has regularly been issuing public briefings.
Well, the Waitrose guy has been and gone. He says it's busier than Christmas with the home deliveries, they are calling people in on days off, and yesterday was their highest volume of online orders ever.
And, yes, they have absolutely no toilet roll - he says there are people outside the store before it opens each day, and they go straight to the toilet roll aisle and within minutes whatever has been put out that day has gone. Madness.
Is there something special about Waitrose bog roll ?
There's no shortage in Tesco and Morrisons.
It may reflect on the demographic most inclined to panic, I guess?
Personally, I don’t feel right doing my morning business unless I’ve got Harrods loo roll, pre-folded by my valet and placed on a silver platter for me.
For those who were bemoaning the lack of EU action yesterday, they have waived the " use it or lose it " rule for airport slots. This saves airlines having to run empty flights just to keep the slots.
Yesterday they announced they would pass legislation to do so - but it has to be published, pass the European Council and Parliament. The question was raised at PMQs a week ago and Shapps wrote to the Commission.
We're not out of the woods yet:
The move has been backed by Virgin Atlantic chief executive Shai Weiss, who said it was now vital to ensure the measures – described by von der Leyen as "temporary" – extend to all airlines around the world for the entire summer season.
"The impact of Covid-19 on our bookings has been significant and requires a swift response, which the transport secretary has recognised," said Weiss. “The European Commission today [Tuesday] indicated it is in favour of a temporary relaxation of the ’use it or lose it’ rule for flight slots at regulated airports.
"This is a positive step, but we urgently expect detail of these measures, and confirmation that alleviation will apply to all markets for the full summer season.
“Prompt publication of the legislation will allow the UK slot co-ordinator to act, enabling Virgin Atlantic and other airlines to operate schedules more efficiently and avoid flying almost empty planes for the sake of retaining valuable slots, which in turn creates unnecessary carbon emissions.”
There seems little point in providing money for research into epidemiology, public health and transmission of infectious diseases.
There are untrained experts on twitter that provide their insights & knowledge for free.
"There seems little point in providing money for research into epidemiology, public health and transmission of infectious diseases."
Well, Trump certainly agrees with that.
The graph that Rory Stewart has tweeted showing a neat "40 percent difference" in red is ludicrous. Any serious modeller would have confidence limits, for a start.
The graph was created by someone called Tomas Pueyo, who seems to be a journalist and author, but he knows enough to create a simple model. We might as well ask SeanT & Henrietta to make the graph and get Rory to tweet it.
Rory is someone who is coming out of this badly. My opinion of him has diminished very substantially. Who would have thought he would handle this worse than Boris?
I think Boris realises how very damaging it would be to do something against the advice of his scientific and medical advisors.
And epidemiology is a mature science on which a lot of research has been done for decades, and sophisticated modelling techniques are possible. So, Boris is right to listen to his experts (who are not party political).
Like yourself, I quite liked Rory until a couple of days ago, almost to the point of wondering if Shaun Bailey should stand aside and give him a free run at Sadiq.
Not now, he's quickly turned into yet another of the amateur internet epidemiologists who think - without evidence - that their opinion is more important that those of the Chief Medical Officer and Chief Scientist.
Politicians and journalists really need to shut up and listen to the genuine experts. As someone suggested here yesterday, the media should be sending their science or health correspondents to the government briefings, rather than the political correspondents.
Sorry, but this is balls. You might just as well say we shouldn't comment on government economic policy.
by all means comment.. if you have the professional qualification to do so.
I think it's legitimate to quote people, random people on Twitter for example, and then it is up to others to decide on the validity of the content.
So long as they are presented as random person from twatter
A health minister catching it in the early days isn't the scenario they will have thought of.
It happened very publicaly in Iran, and it has been spreading around governments of other countries too, so if they haven't thought it could happen here that would be incompetent.
Ah, but Westminster MPs are different. They are not susceptible to the same illnesses that the rest of us are.
A health minister catching it in the early days isn't the scenario they will have thought of.
It happened very publicaly in Iran, and it has been spreading around governments of other countries too, so if they haven't thought it could happen here that would be incompetent.
Ah, but Westminster MPs are different. They are not susceptible to the same illnesses that the rest of us are.
Looking at the FTSE we are so Wall Street's bitches.
Still little sign of a decisive assault on 24000, which is holding for now.
Rishi will rescue us this afternoon (perhaps)
I say it quite often that equities is really the only game in town for the majority of investors.
A friend I was with yesterday bought puts (now sold at a profit!) on the Dow and FTSEa short while ago which sounds like the type of trading you are doing. But for almost everyone else buy and hold is their (usually outsourced) strategy.
I'd be interested to know whether @Ishmael_Z had gone back into the markets again yet.
Buy and hold is the right strategy in almost all circumstances, the exception being the type of large longer lasting crash that comes along once or twice in a generation.
Given what the medical experts are telling us lies ahead - a period of lock down, then a significant (but hopefully less so than it might have been) epidemic, a gradual return to normal, with the probability of a further epidemic next winter, I don't think buying back in will make any sense at all in 2020.
Especially as the US looks as if it is setting itself up to be worst affected, and as you said yourself, Wall Street leads the world markets.
A health minister catching it in the early days isn't the scenario they will have thought of.
It happened very publicaly in Iran, and it has been spreading around governments of other countries too, so if they haven't thought it could happen here that would be incompetent.
Ah, but Westminster MPs are different. They are not susceptible to the same illnesses that the rest of us are.
Can I be the thousandth person to make the joke that MPs are safe because germs are killed by hot air?
Well, the Waitrose guy has been and gone. He says it's busier than Christmas with the home deliveries, they are calling people in on days off, and yesterday was their highest volume of online orders ever.
And, yes, they have absolutely no toilet roll - he says there are people outside the store before it opens each day, and they go straight to the toilet roll aisle and within minutes whatever has been put out that day has gone. Madness.
Is there something special about Waitrose bog roll ?
There's no shortage in Tesco and Morrisons.
It may reflect on the demographic most inclined to panic, I guess? (edit/ and/or be more up with the news)
I thought the Waitrose demographic was affluent, educated people in southern England.
Are Waitrose shoppers older and have folk memories of some toilet roll shortage of long ago ?
Well, the Waitrose guy has been and gone. He says it's busier than Christmas with the home deliveries, they are calling people in on days off, and yesterday was their highest volume of online orders ever.
And, yes, they have absolutely no toilet roll - he says there are people outside the store before it opens each day, and they go straight to the toilet roll aisle and within minutes whatever has been put out that day has gone. Madness.
Is there something special about Waitrose bog roll ?
There's no shortage in Tesco and Morrisons.
No, just something special about ******* who shop at Waitrose.
I guess those who hoard toilet paper by extension must recognise themselves as the biggest ars*holes?
@Anabobazina regarding smoking from the previous thread. A few of the reasons why the government may not be strongly advocating quitting as part in of their anti-coronavirus strategy. The stress of quitting (particularly under these circumstances) can in some instances have greater health drawbacks in the short term than continuing. Quitting may lead to changes in habits that would be unpredictable and not necessarily aid containment eg outdoor fag break swapped for indoor interaction. Quitters who need NHS support and advice may tie up services needed for other things. Etc.
As someone who quit 16 years ago it is just about the most difficult habit to overcome.
Furthermore, I would assume stopping now is a bit too late to help in covid 19
I didn't want to say that last one as it's never too late! But yes, it is a point.
Do you have a link to that Kantar poll G?
Well done BIG G. I went cold turkey on cigarettes 7.5 yrs ago . it was blooming hard thing to do. I had voices in my head telling me it would be alright just to have one. It required considerable presence of mind to refuse offers from friends and even more difficult was stopping myself buying a pack of B and H.... after a week, the cravings diminished and I now cannot bear the smell, and its particularly unpleasant smelling cigarette smoke from others clothes.I guess is impossible to get rid of , bar dry cleaning.
Very much my experience but it took 3 months cold turkey to achieve it
Now I am so against smoking and cannot stand being near anyone smoking or vaping
During my copd health check 2 years ago the nurse commented that stopping smoking had saved my life
The zeal of the convert is clearly your thing.
Maybe but stopping smoking 16 years ago was prompted by my daughter who said she would restrict access to my one year grandaughter if I did not stop. According to the nurse I would not have survived to now if I had continued smoking but even then I have acquired copd
There seems little point in providing money for research into epidemiology, public health and transmission of infectious diseases.
There are untrained experts on twitter that provide their insights & knowledge for free.
"There seems little point in providing money for research into epidemiology, public health and transmission of infectious diseases."
Well, Trump certainly agrees with that.
The graph that Rory Stewart has tweeted showing a neat "40 percent difference" in red is ludicrous. Any serious modeller would have confidence limits, for a start.
The graph was created by someone called Tomas Pueyo, who seems to be a journalist and author, but he knows enough to create a simple model. We might as well ask SeanT & Henrietta to make the graph and get Rory to tweet it.
Rory is someone who is coming out of this badly. My opinion of him has diminished very substantially. Who would have thought he would handle this worse than Boris?
I think Boris realises how very damaging it would be to do something against the advice of his scientific and medical advisors.
And epidemiology is a mature science on which a lot of research has been done for decades, and sophisticated modelling techniques are possible. So, Boris is right to listen to his experts (who are not party political).
Like yourself, I quite liked Rory until a couple of days ago, almost to the point of wondering if Shaun Bailey should stand aside and give him a free run at Sadiq.
Not now, he's quickly turned into yet another of the amateur internet epidemiologists who think - without evidence - that their opinion is more important that those of the Chief Medical Officer and Chief Scientist.
Politicians and journalists really need to shut up and listen to the genuine experts. As someone suggested here yesterday, the media should be sending their science or health correspondents to the government briefings, rather than the political correspondents.
Sorry, but this is balls. You might just as well say we shouldn't comment on government economic policy.
You can comment on it. You can link to evidence from reputable sources.
Rory has done something different.
He has linked to a graph produced by a journalist, author and motivational public speaker and argued that it has the credibility of work by professional epidemiologists, data scientists and statisticians.
I can comment on something and show a graph produced by my simple-minded code using the Principles of Eadric-ology. But, I should not expect anything other than criticism and ridicule. That is what Rory deserves & should get.
I don't get the flap. We have a government which lies through its teeth to an electorate who wants to be lied to for reassurance. Its OK for serving Tories to disseminate dubious expert free information but not former Tories...?
I'm not going to make any case for Pueyo - other than to say that if the government were more open about the detailed advice they were being given, such efforts would be rendered irrelevant. .
You are very optimistic if you believe more openness by the Government will render irrelevant the efforts of the Pueyos, Henriettas and Eadrics of the World
@Anabobazina regarding smoking from the previous thread. A few of the reasons why the government may not be strongly advocating quitting as part in of their anti-coronavirus strategy. The stress of quitting (particularly under these circumstances) can in some instances have greater health drawbacks in the short term than continuing. Quitting may lead to changes in habits that would be unpredictable and not necessarily aid containment eg outdoor fag break swapped for indoor interaction. Quitters who need NHS support and advice may tie up services needed for other things. Etc.
As someone who quit 16 years ago it is just about the most difficult habit to overcome.
Furthermore, I would assume stopping now is a bit too late to help in covid 19
Stopping now will help.
A smoker who stops today: - if they are positive and have symptoms the disease will not hit as hard (compromise of lung function is one of the main factors in the disease) - if they are positive but as yet symptom free the disease progression will be slower and not as severe. - someone who is negative will be less likely to catch the disease, as they are putting their hands to their mouth less often, and for some people they will mingle less with strangers, accept cigarettes from friends less etc. -within just a few days the lungs will start to become more efficient, and the blood will have less carbonmonoxide meaning that the person has to breathe less air in, meaning lower chances of infection. -within a couple of weeks the immune system and general health will be significantly better, reducing the chance of infection.
Another relevant point that I think many people overlook. Someone who meets a positive person is not bound to be positive or immune. The chances are that none or too little of the virus really gets into the body to take hold.
A health minister catching it in the early days isn't the scenario they will have thought of.
It happened very publicaly in Iran, and it has been spreading around governments of other countries too, so if they haven't thought it could happen here that would be incompetent.
Ah, but Westminster MPs are different. They are not susceptible to the same illnesses that the rest of us are.
They are leading by example. They haven't taken it seriously enough and now some of them are coming down with it first.
Hopefully this will be the kick up the arse they need.
Well, the Waitrose guy has been and gone. He says it's busier than Christmas with the home deliveries, they are calling people in on days off, and yesterday was their highest volume of online orders ever.
And, yes, they have absolutely no toilet roll - he says there are people outside the store before it opens each day, and they go straight to the toilet roll aisle and within minutes whatever has been put out that day has gone. Madness.
Is there something special about Waitrose bog roll ?
There's no shortage in Tesco and Morrisons.
It may reflect on the demographic most inclined to panic, I guess?
Personally, I don’t feel right doing my morning business unless I’ve got Harrods loo roll, pre-folded by my valet and placed on a silver platter for me.
Folding is apparently a European-specific thing. Americans bunch.
There seems little point in providing money for research into epidemiology, public health and transmission of infectious diseases.
There are untrained experts on twitter that provide their insights & knowledge for free.
"There seems little point in providing money for research into epidemiology, public health and transmission of infectious diseases."
Well, Trump certainly agrees with that.
The graph that Rory Stewart has tweeted showing a neat "40 percent difference" in red is ludicrous. Any serious modeller would have confidence limits, for a start.
The graph was created by someone called Tomas Pueyo, who seems to be a journalist and author, but he knows enough to create a simple model. We might as well ask SeanT & Henrietta to make the graph and get Rory to tweet it.
Rory is someone who is coming out of this badly. My opinion of him has diminished very substantially. Who would have thought he would handle this worse than Boris?
I think Boris realises how very damaging it would be to do something against the advice of his scientific and medical advisors.
And epidemiology is a mature science on which a lot of research has been done for decades, and sophisticated modelling techniques are possible. So, Boris is right to listen to his experts (who are not party political).
Like yourself, I quite liked Rory until a couple of days ago, almost to the point of wondering if Shaun Bailey should stand aside and give him a free run at Sadiq.
Not now, he's quickly turned into yet another of the amateur internet epidemiologists who think - without evidence - that their opinion is more important that those of the Chief Medical Officer and Chief Scientist.
Politicians and journalists really need to shut up and listen to the genuine experts. As someone suggested here yesterday, the media should be sending their science or health correspondents to the government briefings, rather than the political correspondents.
Sorry, but this is balls. You might just as well say we shouldn't comment on government economic policy.
We'll agree to disagree there. IMO this is too important for petty politics to get in the way, everyone needs to be singing from the same hymn sheet to the public otherwise the messages become confused.
If the government's politicians start arguing with the CMO and CS in public, then it's fair enough to criticise the response, but right now they're all saying exactly the same thing - while the media are giving airtime to a bunch of amateur epidemiologists who are either needlessly scaremongering or saying it's nothing to worry about.
Then how do you account for the Dorries case ?
That's clearly not about not issuing advice because "it might be too early and the public might not take it seriously" etc. She was simply doing the wrong thing (not self-isolating as soon as she had an RTI), based on an incorrect assessment.
Looking at the FTSE we are so Wall Street's bitches.
Still little sign of a decisive assault on 24000, which is holding for now.
Rishi will rescue us this afternoon (perhaps)
I say it quite often that equities is really the only game in town for the majority of investors.
A friend I was with yesterday bought puts (now sold at a profit!) on the Dow and FTSEa short while ago which sounds like the type of trading you are doing. But for almost everyone else buy and hold is their (usually outsourced) strategy.
I'd be interested to know whether @Ishmael_Z had gone back into the markets again yet.
Buy and hold is the right strategy in almost all circumstances, the exception being the type of large longer lasting crash that comes along once or twice in a generation.
Given what the medical experts are telling us lies ahead - a period of lock down, then a significant (but hopefully less so than it might have been) epidemic, a gradual return to normal, with the probability of a further epidemic next winter, I don't think buying back in will make any sense at all in 2020.
Especially as the US looks as if it is setting itself up to be worst affected, and as you said yourself, Wall Street leads the world markets.
Im close to buying at these rates, especially the UK markets. My impression is the risks of big disaster have subsided a bit in the last week, even if the economic costs are becoming clearer. FTSE 6000 feels fair value and think year end could easily be back above 7000. We should get some volatility the next week or two to allow buying in around 5500 or lower.
Well, the Waitrose guy has been and gone. He says it's busier than Christmas with the home deliveries, they are calling people in on days off, and yesterday was their highest volume of online orders ever.
And, yes, they have absolutely no toilet roll - he says there are people outside the store before it opens each day, and they go straight to the toilet roll aisle and within minutes whatever has been put out that day has gone. Madness.
Is there something special about Waitrose bog roll ?
There's no shortage in Tesco and Morrisons.
It may reflect on the demographic most inclined to panic, I guess?
Personally, I don’t feel right doing my morning business unless I’ve got Harrods loo roll, pre-folded by my valet and placed on a silver platter for me.
Folding is apparently a European-specific thing. Americans bunch.
I like to see the funding case for that scientific study....
Well, the Waitrose guy has been and gone. He says it's busier than Christmas with the home deliveries, they are calling people in on days off, and yesterday was their highest volume of online orders ever.
And, yes, they have absolutely no toilet roll - he says there are people outside the store before it opens each day, and they go straight to the toilet roll aisle and within minutes whatever has been put out that day has gone. Madness.
Is there something special about Waitrose bog roll ?
There's no shortage in Tesco and Morrisons.
No, just something special about ******* who shop at Waitrose.
They can afford large houses and so have spare storage space for a cheap and bulky product.
There seems little point in providing money for research into epidemiology, public health and transmission of infectious diseases.
There are untrained experts on twitter that provide their insights & knowledge for free.
"There seems little point in providing money for research into epidemiology, public health and transmission of infectious diseases."
Well, Trump certainly agrees with that.
The graph that Rory Stewart has tweeted showing a neat "40 percent difference" in red is ludicrous. Any serious modeller would have confidence limits, for a start.
The graph was created by someone called Tomas Pueyo, who seems to be a journalist and author, but he knows enough to create a simple model. We might as well ask SeanT & Henrietta to make the graph and get Rory to tweet it.
Rory is someone who is coming out of this badly. My opinion of him has diminished very substantially. Who would have thought he would handle this worse than Boris?
I think Boris realises how very damaging it would be to do something against the advice of his scientific and medical advisors.
And epidemiology is a mature science on which a lot of research has been done for decades, and sophisticated modelling techniques are possible. So, Boris is right to listen to his experts (who are not party political).
Like yourself, I quite liked Rory until a couple of days ago, almost to the point of wondering if Shaun Bailey should stand aside and give him a free run at Sadiq.
Not now, he's quickly turned into yet another of the amateur internet epidemiologists who think - without evidence - that their opinion is more important that those of the Chief Medical Officer and Chief Scientist.
Politicians and journalists really need to shut up and listen to the genuine experts. As someone suggested here yesterday, the media should be sending their science or health correspondents to the government briefings, rather than the political correspondents.
Sorry, but this is balls. You might just as well say we shouldn't comment on government economic policy.
You can comment on it. You can link to evidence from reputable sources.
Rory has done something different.
He has linked to a graph produced by a journalist, author and motivational public speaker and argued that it has the credibility of work by professional epidemiologists, data scientists and statisticians.
I can comment on something and show a graph produced by my simple-minded code using the Principles of Eadric-ology. But, I should not expect anything other than criticism and ridicule. That is what Rory deserves & should get.
I don't get the flap. We have a government which lies through its teeth to an electorate who wants to be lied to for reassurance. Its OK for serving Tories to disseminate dubious expert free information but not former Tories...?
It is not the Government, you fuckwit.
It is scientific advisors to the Government.
They are in general not Tories, and most of the ones I know are left-of-centre. They advise the Government because they think it part of their duty that the Government has access to high quality science advice.
If people are hoarding bog rolls without also stocking up on dried pasta, rice, flour etc. Then they are stupid.
If in the more likely scenario people are hoarding bog rolls whilst also getting food so they can live through a potential lock-down, then that isn't stupid. In fact it is super rational.
In an ideal world that building up of stock would have been going on for 3-4 weeks now.
I'm not going to make any case for Pueyo - other than to say that if the government were more open about the detailed advice they were being given, such efforts would be rendered irrelevant. .
You are very optimistic if you believe more openness by the Government will render irrelevant the efforts of the Pueyos, Henriettas and Eadrics of the World
It leaves an information vacuum which will be filled.
As an small example, the CMO recently said in an interview of one piece of advice 'this seems paradoxical', and left it at that rather than explaining why.
Well, the Waitrose guy has been and gone. He says it's busier than Christmas with the home deliveries, they are calling people in on days off, and yesterday was their highest volume of online orders ever.
And, yes, they have absolutely no toilet roll - he says there are people outside the store before it opens each day, and they go straight to the toilet roll aisle and within minutes whatever has been put out that day has gone. Madness.
Is there something special about Waitrose bog roll ?
There's no shortage in Tesco and Morrisons.
It may reflect on the demographic most inclined to panic, I guess?
Personally, I don’t feel right doing my morning business unless I’ve got Harrods loo roll, pre-folded by my valet and placed on a silver platter for me.
Folding is apparently a European-specific thing. Americans bunch.
What I did not realise until this morning when I checked the packaging to see where Andrex is made (Britain, not China, as it turns out) is that the label includes instructions for use.
David Aaronovitch tweets 'have to have a heart of stone not to laugh' about Nadie Dorres. Total piece of pond life.
Certainly not his finest moment.
As has been pointed out, she has an 84 year old mother also infected. Sympathy is in order, however much her case might illustrate missteps in government response.
Still cannot get head round that she is in government, I thought she had retired, how desperate is the talent level in the Tories when we have her and the likes of Grayling in positions of power. It can only be old chums network or Boris looking to have cabinet dumber than him.
“The patient was admitted to the hospital in an already severe condition caused by preexisting illnesses including diabetes, hypertension, hyperthyroidism and years-long obstructive lung disease,” Achmad said.
He said the coronavirus infection had worsened the patient’s immune system, which had further exacerbated her preexisting illnesses. “So the coronavirus was not the main cause [of the patient’s death], but it had worsened her condition.”
Well, the Waitrose guy has been and gone. He says it's busier than Christmas with the home deliveries, they are calling people in on days off, and yesterday was their highest volume of online orders ever.
And, yes, they have absolutely no toilet roll - he says there are people outside the store before it opens each day, and they go straight to the toilet roll aisle and within minutes whatever has been put out that day has gone. Madness.
Is there something special about Waitrose bog roll ?
There's no shortage in Tesco and Morrisons.
It may reflect on the demographic most inclined to panic, I guess?
Personally, I don’t feel right doing my morning business unless I’ve got Harrods loo roll, pre-folded by my valet and placed on a silver platter for me.
Folding is apparently a European-specific thing. Americans bunch.
I'm trying hard not to visualise what "bunching" toilet roll means!
A video I saw on Reddit yesterday showed Biden shouting at a man who asked him a question about the second amendment, and telling him (the questioner) that he was 'full of shit'. Biden also seems confused and frankly out of it in every video. Maybe he's a better shot than Sanders, but it's hard to believe he's the best the Democrats have to offer.
Biden is not ideal (who is?) but the consensus across the political spectrum on PB seems to be that just about anybody would be better than Trump.
Let's hope that the covid-19 crisis opens the eyes of even some of the dimest Trumptons in the US.
Biden might sound a little confused at times but Trump actually believes the bullshit he comes out with on a daily basis.
Looking at the FTSE we are so Wall Street's bitches.
Still little sign of a decisive assault on 24000, which is holding for now.
Rishi will rescue us this afternoon (perhaps)
I say it quite often that equities is really the only game in town for the majority of investors.
A friend I was with yesterday bought puts (now sold at a profit!) on the Dow and FTSEa short while ago which sounds like the type of trading you are doing. But for almost everyone else buy and hold is their (usually outsourced) strategy.
I'd be interested to know whether @Ishmael_Z had gone back into the markets again yet.
Absolutely not. I am not a trader, I am the world's most boring buy and holder and you can't time the marketer, so the move out of the market represented a complete paradigm shift, and not one I intend to reverse any time soon. I was probably overinvested in equities anyway.
Next review point is 6 April (new year isa and sipp money) but I don't see me doing anything about it. ftse 5000 and three months reasonable stability are probably what it takes to tempt me back in.
Looking at the FTSE we are so Wall Street's bitches.
Still little sign of a decisive assault on 24000, which is holding for now.
Rishi will rescue us this afternoon (perhaps)
I say it quite often that equities is really the only game in town for the majority of investors.
A friend I was with yesterday bought puts (now sold at a profit!) on the Dow and FTSEa short while ago which sounds like the type of trading you are doing. But for almost everyone else buy and hold is their (usually outsourced) strategy.
I'd be interested to know whether @Ishmael_Z had gone back into the markets again yet.
Buy and hold is the right strategy in almost all circumstances, the exception being the type of large longer lasting crash that comes along once or twice in a generation.
Given what the medical experts are telling us lies ahead - a period of lock down, then a significant (but hopefully less so than it might have been) epidemic, a gradual return to normal, with the probability of a further epidemic next winter, I don't think buying back in will make any sense at all in 2020.
Especially as the US looks as if it is setting itself up to be worst affected, and as you said yourself, Wall Street leads the world markets.
Im close to buying at these rates, especially the UK markets. My impression is the risks of big disaster have subsided a bit in the last week, even if the economic costs are becoming clearer. FTSE 6000 feels fair value and think year end could easily be back above 7000. We should get some volatility the next week or two to allow buying in around 5500 or lower.
On the underlying economic substance, you may have a point. You may also have a point in that previous crises have seen the bottom well before any resolution is in sight. It is however sentiment that drives markets, at least in the short term, and AFAICS a stream of bad news is pretty much nailed on for the next few months at least. I guess the counter-argument is if a vaccine or cure is discovered, or if by some miracle the virus melts away during the summer.
The latter case is likely pain deferred, of course, and not a case for a buy. But I wouldn't fancy being caught holding sell positions the day a vaccine is announced.
A video I saw on Reddit yesterday showed Biden shouting at a man who asked him a question about the second amendment, and telling him (the questioner) that he was 'full of shit'. Biden also seems confused and frankly out of it in every video. Maybe he's a better shot than Sanders, but it's hard to believe he's the best the Democrats have to offer.
Biden is not ideal (who is?) but the consensus across the political spectrum on PB seems to be that just about anybody would be better than Trump.
Well, the Waitrose guy has been and gone. He says it's busier than Christmas with the home deliveries, they are calling people in on days off, and yesterday was their highest volume of online orders ever.
And, yes, they have absolutely no toilet roll - he says there are people outside the store before it opens each day, and they go straight to the toilet roll aisle and within minutes whatever has been put out that day has gone. Madness.
That's your southern jessies for you, have they not heard of docken leaves
There seems little point in providing money for research into epidemiology, public health and transmission of infectious diseases.
There are untrained experts on twitter that provide their insights & knowledge for free.
"There seems little point in providing money for research into epidemiology, public health and transmission of infectious diseases."
Well, Trump certainly agrees with that.
The graph that Rory Stewart has tweeted showing a neat "40 percent difference" in red is ludicrous. Any serious modeller would have confidence limits, for a start.
The graph was created by someone called Tomas Pueyo, who seems to be a journalist and author, but he knows enough to create a simple model. We might as well ask SeanT & Henrietta to make the graph and get Rory to tweet it.
Rory is someone who is coming out of this badly. My opinion of him has diminished very substantially. Who would have thought he would handle this worse than Boris?
I think Boris realises how very damaging it would be to do something against the advice of his scientific and medical advisors.
And epidemiology is a mature science on which a lot of research has been done for decades, and sophisticated modelling techniques are possible. So, Boris is right to listen to his experts (who are not party political).
Like yourself, I quite liked Rory until a couple of days ago, almost to the point of wondering if Shaun Bailey should stand aside and give him a free run at Sadiq.
Not now, he's quickly turned into yet another of the amateur internet epidemiologists who think - without evidence - that their opinion is more important that those of the Chief Medical Officer and Chief Scientist.
Politicians and journalists really need to shut up and listen to the genuine experts. As someone suggested here yesterday, the media should be sending their science or health correspondents to the government briefings, rather than the political correspondents.
Sorry, but this is balls. You might just as well say we shouldn't comment on government economic policy.
You can comment on it. You can link to evidence from reputable sources.
Rory has done something different.
He has linked to a graph produced by a journalist, author and motivational public speaker and argued that it has the credibility of work by professional epidemiologists, data scientists and statisticians.
I can comment on something and show a graph produced by my simple-minded code using the Principles of Eadric-ology. But, I should not expect anything other than criticism and ridicule. That is what Rory deserves & should get.
I don't get the flap. We have a government which lies through its teeth to an electorate who wants to be lied to for reassurance. Its OK for serving Tories to disseminate dubious expert free information but not former Tories...?
It is not the Government, you fuckwit.
It is scientific advisors to the Government.
They are in general not Tories, and most of the ones I know are left-of-centre. They advise the Government because they think it part of their duty that the Government has access to high quality science advice.
Advisers advise, ministers decide. I thought we'd established that over the last few weeks?
Are you privy to these discussions by chance? If so, do you know if there are a range of potential strategies and whether the government is pursuing one of them?
What's their utility function? How much are they willing to trade 10,000 deaths for a 1% reduction in GDP? Would be useful for the public to know.
David Aaronovitch tweets 'have to have a heart of stone not to laugh' about Nadie Dorres. Total piece of pond life.
Certainly not his finest moment.
As has been pointed out, she has an 84 year old mother also infected. Sympathy is in order, however much her case might illustrate missteps in government response.
Still cannot get head round that she is in government, I thought she had retired, how desperate is the talent level in the Tories when we have her and the likes of Grayling in positions of power. It can only be old chums network or Boris looking to have cabinet dumber than him.
One of the gestures towards the Brexiteer tendency, I guess. I can't see she is of even junior ministerial quality.
I was as surprised finding out she was a minister as much as I was about the infection news.
A video I saw on Reddit yesterday showed Biden shouting at a man who asked him a question about the second amendment, and telling him (the questioner) that he was 'full of shit'. Biden also seems confused and frankly out of it in every video. Maybe he's a better shot than Sanders, but it's hard to believe he's the best the Democrats have to offer.
Biden is not ideal (who is?) but the consensus across the political spectrum on PB seems to be that just about anybody would be better than Trump.
Let's hope that the covid-19 crisis opens the eyes of even some of the dimest Trumptons in the US.
Biden might sound a little confused at times but Trump actually believes the bullshit he comes out with on a daily basis.
Yes, I think the Trumptons on here are now limited to the hard right TGOHF and perhaps the Putinite crank Lucky Guy.
There seems little point in providing money for research into epidemiology, public health and transmission of infectious diseases.
There are untrained experts on twitter that provide their insights & knowledge for free.
"There seems little point in providing money for research into epidemiology, public health and transmission of infectious diseases."
Well, Trump certainly agrees with that.
The graph that Rory Stewart has tweeted showing a neat "40 percent difference" in red is ludicrous. Any serious modeller would have confidence limits, for a start.
The graph was created by someone called Tomas Pueyo, who seems to be a journalist and author, but he knows enough to create a simple model. We might as well ask SeanT & Henrietta to make the graph and get Rory to tweet it.
Rory is someone who is coming out of this badly. My opinion of him has diminished very substantially. Who would have thought he would handle this worse than Boris?
I think Boris realises how very damaging it would be to do something against the advice of his scientific and medical advisors.
And epidemiology is a mature science on which a lot of research has been done for decades, and sophisticated modelling techniques are possible. So, Boris is right to listen to his experts (who are not party political).
Like yourself, I quite liked Rory until a couple of days ago, almost to the point of wondering if Shaun Bailey should stand aside and give him a free run at Sadiq.
Not now, he's quickly turned into yet another of the amateur internet epidemiologists who think - without evidence - that their opinion is more important that those of the Chief Medical Officer and Chief Scientist.
Politicians and journalists really need to shut up and listen to the genuine experts. As someone suggested here yesterday, the media should be sending their science or health correspondents to the government briefings, rather than the political correspondents.
Sorry, but this is balls. You might just as well say we shouldn't comment on government economic policy.
We'll agree to disagree there. IMO this is too important for petty politics to get in the way, everyone needs to be singing from the same hymn sheet to the public otherwise the messages become confused.
If the government's politicians start arguing with the CMO and CS in public, then it's fair enough to criticise the response, but right now they're all saying exactly the same thing - while the media are giving airtime to a bunch of amateur epidemiologists who are either needlessly scaremongering or saying it's nothing to worry about.
As a professional epidemiologist (usual disclaimer, not in infectious disease), I'm happy to admit I don't know how this is going to play out. Worst case scenarios are, by definition, unlikely, but government is correct to plan around those - we expect them to cope and have a plan whatever happens. The government should be (and all indications are that they are) taking this very seriously, but with a measured response weighing up the pros and cons.
Chatting yesterday to a colleague who is more in this field (heavily involved in WTO response to Ebola and was on the ground in that outbreak) he pointed out that, while he also knows nothing much from the public figures, those involved in the response will have more data. No crystal ball, but details on all the cases, how they got infected (if known) and the likely vectors of infection. They are in a better position to judge the correct responses at the correct time than all the armchair epidemiologists (qualified or not) looking at trend lines on the tracking websites.
Looking at the FTSE we are so Wall Street's bitches.
Still little sign of a decisive assault on 24000, which is holding for now.
Rishi will rescue us this afternoon (perhaps)
I say it quite often that equities is really the only game in town for the majority of investors.
A friend I was with yesterday bought puts (now sold at a profit!) on the Dow and FTSEa short while ago which sounds like the type of trading you are doing. But for almost everyone else buy and hold is their (usually outsourced) strategy.
I'd be interested to know whether @Ishmael_Z had gone back into the markets again yet.
Buy and hold is the right strategy in almost all circumstances, the exception being the type of large longer lasting crash that comes along once or twice in a generation.
Given what the medical experts are telling us lies ahead - a period of lock down, then a significant (but hopefully less so than it might have been) epidemic, a gradual return to normal, with the probability of a further epidemic next winter, I don't think buying back in will make any sense at all in 2020.
Especially as the US looks as if it is setting itself up to be worst affected, and as you said yourself, Wall Street leads the world markets.
That's a fair point about 2020 but as we all know people are just looking for a catalyst, however flimsy, to get back in.
Nothing wrong with sitting on cash even if the central bankers are trying to get you to do something with it.
There seems little point in providing money for research into epidemiology, public health and transmission of infectious diseases.
There are untrained experts on twitter that provide their insights & knowledge for free.
"There seems little point in providing money for research into epidemiology, public health and transmission of infectious diseases."
Well, Trump certainly agrees with that.
The graph that Rory Stewart has tweeted showing a neat "40 percent difference" in red is ludicrous. Any serious modeller would have confidence limits, for a start.
The graph was created by someone called Tomas Pueyo, who seems to be a journalist and author, but he knows enough to create a simple model. We might as well ask SeanT & Henrietta to make the graph and get Rory to tweet it.
Rory is someone who is coming out of this badly. My opinion of him has diminished very substantially. Who would have thought he would handle this worse than Boris?
I think Boris realises how very damaging it would be to do something against the advice of his scientific and medical advisors.
And epidemiology is a mature science on which a lot of research has been done for decades, and sophisticated modelling techniques are possible. So, Boris is right to listen to his experts (who are not party political).
Like yourself, I quite liked Rory until a couple of days ago, almost to the point of wondering if Shaun Bailey should stand aside and give him a free run at Sadiq.
Not now, he's quickly turned into yet another of the amateur internet epidemiologists who think - without evidence - that their opinion is more important that those of the Chief Medical Officer and Chief Scientist.
Politicians and journalists really need to shut up and listen to the genuine experts. As someone suggested here yesterday, the media should be sending their science or health correspondents to the government briefings, rather than the political correspondents.
Sorry, but this is balls. You might just as well say we shouldn't comment on government economic policy.
We all have broadly the same access to economic theories and data, there is tons of it out there, various policies have been tried in many countries over many different situations. People outside the govt can have close to as much knowledge as the Treasury. It is also not time critical.
On Covid 19 there is a very limited amount of data and knowledge, which changes on a daily basis, and is not widely known. No single expert from any field can have good context of the impacts to other fields.
The two scenarios are very different. As long as the govt response is science led, given access to all available resources, other politicians and media should be very reluctant to criticise.
Is there something special about Waitrose bog roll ?
Quilted. Makes for a nice experience. You want it to carry on forever.
Costco Edinburgh had sold out of all but their own brand of toilet roll. They had piles of moist flushable wipes though. I must admit that was a mental step to far for me even if faced with covidgeddon.
Well, the Waitrose guy has been and gone. He says it's busier than Christmas with the home deliveries, they are calling people in on days off, and yesterday was their highest volume of online orders ever.
And, yes, they have absolutely no toilet roll - he says there are people outside the store before it opens each day, and they go straight to the toilet roll aisle and within minutes whatever has been put out that day has gone. Madness.
Is there something special about Waitrose bog roll ?
There's no shortage in Tesco and Morrisons.
It may reflect on the demographic most inclined to panic, I guess?
Personally, I don’t feel right doing my morning business unless I’ve got Harrods loo roll, pre-folded by my valet and placed on a silver platter for me.
Folding is apparently a European-specific thing. Americans bunch.
What I did not realise until this morning when I checked the packaging to see where Andrex is made (Britain, not China, as it turns out) is that the label includes instructions for use.
Fck, you are right.
Also, hm the queen uses it, I have been omitting the Washlets ™ part of the drill all my life, and you should not use the plastic bag to commit suicide by asphyxiation. Never seen such an information rich bit of packaging.
Well, the Waitrose guy has been and gone. He says it's busier than Christmas with the home deliveries, they are calling people in on days off, and yesterday was their highest volume of online orders ever.
And, yes, they have absolutely no toilet roll - he says there are people outside the store before it opens each day, and they go straight to the toilet roll aisle and within minutes whatever has been put out that day has gone. Madness.
Is there something special about Waitrose bog roll ?
There's no shortage in Tesco and Morrisons.
It may reflect on the demographic most inclined to panic, I guess?
Personally, I don’t feel right doing my morning business unless I’ve got Harrods loo roll, pre-folded by my valet and placed on a silver platter for me.
Folding is apparently a European-specific thing. Americans bunch.
I'm trying hard not to visualise what "bunching" toilet roll means!
When I was in the US I was surprised that folding paper there didn't seem to be delivering the results to which I have become accustomed, so I googled it, as one does, to uncover lots of online discussion about the transatlantic differences in wiping habits. It would appear that our former colonial cousins take a length of paper and scrunch it up into a type of ball or bunch. Presumably this works better with the American style of paper.
Count yourselves lucky to have learned today's something new so soon after breakfast.
A video I saw on Reddit yesterday showed Biden shouting at a man who asked him a question about the second amendment, and telling him (the questioner) that he was 'full of shit'. Biden also seems confused and frankly out of it in every video. Maybe he's a better shot than Sanders, but it's hard to believe he's the best the Democrats have to offer.
Biden is not ideal (who is?) but the consensus across the political spectrum on PB seems to be that just about anybody would be better than Trump.
Let's hope that the covid-19 crisis opens the eyes of even some of the dimest Trumptons in the US.
Biden might sound a little confused at times but Trump actually believes the bullshit he comes out with on a daily basis.
Biden and Sanders are in the thick of it meeting lots of people in an apparently massively infected country. They both match the most vulnerable profile if affected by COVID.
Given Trump's usual self-isolation in the WH or the golf course, he may be the only one standing.
Well, the Waitrose guy has been and gone. He says it's busier than Christmas with the home deliveries, they are calling people in on days off, and yesterday was their highest volume of online orders ever.
And, yes, they have absolutely no toilet roll - he says there are people outside the store before it opens each day, and they go straight to the toilet roll aisle and within minutes whatever has been put out that day has gone. Madness.
Is there something special about Waitrose bog roll ?
There's no shortage in Tesco and Morrisons.
It may reflect on the demographic most inclined to panic, I guess?
Personally, I don’t feel right doing my morning business unless I’ve got Harrods loo roll, pre-folded by my valet and placed on a silver platter for me.
Folding is apparently a European-specific thing. Americans bunch.
What I did not realise until this morning when I checked the packaging to see where Andrex is made (Britain, not China, as it turns out) is that the label includes instructions for use.
I'm guessing it's part of their marketing, well it made you publish on their name on this forum. The marketing for Andrex toilet roll has been strong for decades, you could even say it has been soft, strong and very, very long.
Arrived back from Northern Italy in the early hours to find my flat stocked with flowers and food by my daughters in anticipation of my self isolation for 14 days.
Fantastic skiing for two days but empty slopes and hotels. Didn't visit bars or use gondalas. Alone on chair lifts. Sometimes couldn't see another person on the slopes.
Inghams did a great job getting us home (the Austrians prevented us getting to Innsbruck). Flew out of Verona on a rescue flight.
Well, the Waitrose guy has been and gone. He says it's busier than Christmas with the home deliveries, they are calling people in on days off, and yesterday was their highest volume of online orders ever.
And, yes, they have absolutely no toilet roll - he says there are people outside the store before it opens each day, and they go straight to the toilet roll aisle and within minutes whatever has been put out that day has gone. Madness.
Is there something special about Waitrose bog roll ?
There's no shortage in Tesco and Morrisons.
It may reflect on the demographic most inclined to panic, I guess?
Personally, I don’t feel right doing my morning business unless I’ve got Harrods loo roll, pre-folded by my valet and placed on a silver platter for me.
Folding is apparently a European-specific thing. Americans bunch.
What I did not realise until this morning when I checked the packaging to see where Andrex is made (Britain, not China, as it turns out) is that the label includes instructions for use.
Bath Oliver biscuits, it tells you on the packet, are delicious with wine and cheese, apparently.
Arrived back from Northern Italy in the early hours to find my flat stocked with flowers and food by my daughters in anticipation of my self isolation for 14 days.
Fantastic skiing for two days but empty slopes and hotels. Didn't visit bars or use gondalas. Alone on chair lifts. Sometimes couldn't see another person on the slopes.
Inghams did a great job getting us home (the Austrians prevented us getting to Innsbruck). Flew out of Verona on a rescue flight.
Delighted to hear it. Fingers crossed for staying negative.
Looking at the FTSE we are so Wall Street's bitches.
Still little sign of a decisive assault on 24000, which is holding for now.
Rishi will rescue us this afternoon (perhaps)
I say it quite often that equities is really the only game in town for the majority of investors.
A friend I was with yesterday bought puts (now sold at a profit!) on the Dow and FTSEa short while ago which sounds like the type of trading you are doing. But for almost everyone else buy and hold is their (usually outsourced) strategy.
I'd be interested to know whether @Ishmael_Z had gone back into the markets again yet.
Buy and hold is the right strategy in almost all circumstances, the exception being the type of large longer lasting crash that comes along once or twice in a generation.
Given what the medical experts are telling us lies ahead - a period of lock down, then a significant (but hopefully less so than it might have been) epidemic, a gradual return to normal, with the probability of a further epidemic next winter, I don't think buying back in will make any sense at all in 2020.
Especially as the US looks as if it is setting itself up to be worst affected, and as you said yourself, Wall Street leads the world markets.
Im close to buying at these rates, especially the UK markets. My impression is the risks of big disaster have subsided a bit in the last week, even if the economic costs are becoming clearer. FTSE 6000 feels fair value and think year end could easily be back above 7000. We should get some volatility the next week or two to allow buying in around 5500 or lower.
On the underlying economic substance, you may have a point. You may also have a point in that previous crises have seen the bottom well before any resolution is in sight. It is however sentiment that drives markets, at least in the short term, and AFAICS a stream of bad news is pretty much nailed on for the next few months at least. I guess the counter-argument is if a vaccine or cure is discovered, or if by some miracle the virus melts away during the summer.
The latter case is likely pain deferred, of course, and not a case for a buy. But I wouldn't fancy being caught holding sell positions the day a vaccine is announced.
It doesnt sound like a miracle that the virus melts away during the summer. The govt are expecting a 3 week peak around April/May so are expecting big declines by the summer. It is odds on imo.
Arrived back from Northern Italy in the early hours to find my flat stocked with flowers and food by my daughters in anticipation of my self isolation for 14 days.
Fantastic skiing for two days but empty slopes and hotels. Didn't visit bars or use gondalas. Alone on chair lifts. Sometimes couldn't see another person on the slopes.
Inghams did a great job getting us home (the Austrians prevented us getting to Innsbruck). Flew out of Verona on a rescue flight.
A video I saw on Reddit yesterday showed Biden shouting at a man who asked him a question about the second amendment, and telling him (the questioner) that he was 'full of shit'. Biden also seems confused and frankly out of it in every video. Maybe he's a better shot than Sanders, but it's hard to believe he's the best the Democrats have to offer.
Biden is not ideal (who is?) but the consensus across the political spectrum on PB seems to be that just about anybody would be better than Trump.
There seems little point in providing money for research into epidemiology, public health and transmission of infectious diseases.
There are untrained experts on twitter that provide their insights & knowledge for free.
"There seems little point in providing money for research into epidemiology, public health and transmission of infectious diseases."
Well, Trump certainly agrees with that.
The graph that Rory Stewart has tweeted showing a neat "40 percent difference" in red is ludicrous. Any serious modeller would have confidence limits, for a start.
The graph was created by someone called Tomas Pueyo, who seems to be a journalist and author, but he knows enough to create a simple model. We might as well ask SeanT & Henrietta to make the graph and get Rory to tweet it.
Rory is someone who is coming out of this badly. My opinion of him has diminished very substantially. Who would have thought he would handle this worse than Boris?
I think Boris realises how very damaging it would be to do something against the advice of his scientific and medical advisors.
And epidemiology is a mature science on which a lot of research has been done for decades, and sophisticated modelling techniques are possible. So, Boris is right to listen to his experts (who are not party political).
Like yourself, I quite liked Rory until a couple of days ago, almost to the point of wondering if Shaun Bailey should stand aside and give him a free run at Sadiq.
Not now, he's quickly turned into yet another of the amateur internet epidemiologists who think - without evidence - that their opinion is more important that those of the Chief Medical Officer and Chief Scientist.
Politicians and journalists really need to shut up and listen to the genuine experts. As someone suggested here yesterday, the media should be sending their science or health correspondents to the government briefings, rather than the political correspondents.
Sorry, but this is balls. You might just as well say we shouldn't comment on government economic policy.
We all have broadly the same access to economic theories and data, there is tons of it out there, various policies have been tried in many countries over many different situations. People outside the govt can have close to as much knowledge as the Treasury. It is also not time critical.
On Covid 19 there is a very limited amount of data and knowledge, which changes on a daily basis, and is not widely known. No single expert from any field can have good context of the impacts to other fields.
The two scenarios are very different. As long as the govt response is science led, given access to all available resources, other politicians and media should be very reluctant to criticise.
It is the role of the scientific experts to set out the options: if you do a,x will happen; if you do b, y will happen, etc. But is the role of the politicians, not the experts, to choose whether to do a or b, and that is why it is a cop out for a politician to say they are simply following expert advice. Any choice is (one would hope!) science led, but choices must still be made. And other people may reasonably disagree with those choices.
Looking at the FTSE we are so Wall Street's bitches.
Still little sign of a decisive assault on 24000, which is holding for now.
Rishi will rescue us this afternoon (perhaps)
I say it quite often that equities is really the only game in town for the majority of investors.
A friend I was with yesterday bought puts (now sold at a profit!) on the Dow and FTSEa short while ago which sounds like the type of trading you are doing. But for almost everyone else buy and hold is their (usually outsourced) strategy.
I'd be interested to know whether @Ishmael_Z had gone back into the markets again yet.
Buy and hold is the right strategy in almost all circumstances, the exception being the type of large longer lasting crash that comes along once or twice in a generation.
Given what the medical experts are telling us lies ahead - a period of lock down, then a significant (but hopefully less so than it might have been) epidemic, a gradual return to normal, with the probability of a further epidemic next winter, I don't think buying back in will make any sense at all in 2020.
Especially as the US looks as if it is setting itself up to be worst affected, and as you said yourself, Wall Street leads the world markets.
Im close to buying at these rates, especially the UK markets. My impression is the risks of big disaster have subsided a bit in the last week, even if the economic costs are becoming clearer. FTSE 6000 feels fair value and think year end could easily be back above 7000. We should get some volatility the next week or two to allow buying in around 5500 or lower.
On the underlying economic substance, you may have a point. You may also have a point in that previous crises have seen the bottom well before any resolution is in sight. It is however sentiment that drives markets, at least in the short term, and AFAICS a stream of bad news is pretty much nailed on for the next few months at least. I guess the counter-argument is if a vaccine or cure is discovered, or if by some miracle the virus melts away during the summer.
The latter case is likely pain deferred, of course, and not a case for a buy. But I wouldn't fancy being caught holding sell positions the day a vaccine is announced.
It doesnt sound like a miracle that the virus melts away during the summer. The govt are expecting a 3 week peak around April/May so are expecting big declines by the summer. It is odds on imo.
We don't know what this coronavirus does in summer.
We do know that MERS, another coronavirus, comes from Saudi Arabian camels.
Potholes are a major nuisance and the only people who would mock are surely out of touch ignoramuses who think life revolves around the Tube rather than cars.
A video I saw on Reddit yesterday showed Biden shouting at a man who asked him a question about the second amendment, and telling him (the questioner) that he was 'full of shit'. Biden also seems confused and frankly out of it in every video. Maybe he's a better shot than Sanders, but it's hard to believe he's the best the Democrats have to offer.
Biden is not ideal (who is?) but the consensus across the political spectrum on PB seems to be that just about anybody would be better than Trump.
Great, we get a "just about anybody" as POTUS.
Just about anybody but Trump would suit most people right now.
Biden is an experienced Senator and former Vice-President. Even if he's not as sharp as he was he will have the sense to be surrounded by experienced advisers. He won't believe that he knows better than anyone else as Trump does.
Biden would be a very significant upgrade in the current crisis, instead we've got an egotistical moron.
Looking at the FTSE we are so Wall Street's bitches.
Still little sign of a decisive assault on 24000, which is holding for now.
Rishi will rescue us this afternoon (perhaps)
I say it quite often that equities is really the only game in town for the majority of investors.
A friend I was with yesterday bought puts (now sold at a profit!) on the Dow and FTSEa short while ago which sounds like the type of trading you are doing. But for almost everyone else buy and hold is their (usually outsourced) strategy.
I'd be interested to know whether @Ishmael_Z had gone back into the markets again yet.
Buy and hold is the right strategy in almost all circumstances, the exception being the type of large longer lasting crash that comes along once or twice in a generation.
Given what the medical experts are telling us lies ahead - a period of lock down, then a significant (but hopefully less so than it might have been) epidemic, a gradual return to normal, with the probability of a further epidemic next winter, I don't think buying back in will make any sense at all in 2020.
Especially as the US looks as if it is setting itself up to be worst affected, and as you said yourself, Wall Street leads the world markets.
Im close to buying at these rates, especially the UK markets. My impression is the risks of big disaster have subsided a bit in the last week, even if the economic costs are becoming clearer. FTSE 6000 feels fair value and think year end could easily be back above 7000. We should get some volatility the next week or two to allow buying in around 5500 or lower.
On the underlying economic substance, you may have a point. You may also have a point in that previous crises have seen the bottom well before any resolution is in sight. It is however sentiment that drives markets, at least in the short term, and AFAICS a stream of bad news is pretty much nailed on for the next few months at least. I guess the counter-argument is if a vaccine or cure is discovered, or if by some miracle the virus melts away during the summer.
The latter case is likely pain deferred, of course, and not a case for a buy. But I wouldn't fancy being caught holding sell positions the day a vaccine is announced.
It doesnt sound like a miracle that the virus melts away during the summer. The govt are expecting a 3 week peak around April/May so are expecting big declines by the summer. It is odds on imo.
We don't know what this coronavirus does in summer.
We do know that MERS, another coronavirus, comes from Saudi Arabian camels.
Its worth bearing in mind that most coronaviruses melt away in a combination of hot, sunny and humid.
Saudi is hot and sunny but dry, its lacking the humidity that we have in this counry.
“The patient was admitted to the hospital in an already severe condition caused by preexisting illnesses including diabetes, hypertension, hyperthyroidism and years-long obstructive lung disease,” Achmad said.
He said the coronavirus infection had worsened the patient’s immune system, which had further exacerbated her preexisting illnesses. “So the coronavirus was not the main cause [of the patient’s death], but it had worsened her condition.”
@Anabobazina regarding smoking from the previous thread. A few of the reasons why the government may not be strongly advocating quitting as part in of their anti-coronavirus strategy. The stress of quitting (particularly under these circumstances) can in some instances have greater health drawbacks in the short term than continuing. Quitting may lead to changes in habits that would be unpredictable and not necessarily aid containment eg outdoor fag break swapped for indoor interaction. Quitters who need NHS support and advice may tie up services needed for other things. Etc.
As someone who quit 16 years ago it is just about the most difficult habit to overcome.
Furthermore, I would assume stopping now is a bit too late to help in covid 19
I didn't want to say that last one as it's never too late! But yes, it is a point.
Comments
How well do you think the UK government is handling the Coronavirus outbreak?
Very well: 8
Fairly well: 39
Fairly Poorly: 19
Very Poorly: 14
Not Sure: 20
Net "Well" : +14
Splits along predictable demographic & party lines - for example, 65+ net well is +39
I think there is easily scope for it to end up the other way over the next month.
I got on Dems at 2.5, I'm going back in at evens.
The government are not trying to *minimse* deaths - that is not the only parameter in their utility function. If it was, then that can purely be informed by epidemiology.
Instead they are trying to balance the harm to the economy with public health. They are miscalculating in my view and I think in due course that will be the view of the wider public.
The tests off the ship are being airlifted to Holland for testing; meanwhile it is being held at Curacao and I can see another Caribbean Princess episode developing here.
A smoker who stops today:
- if they are positive and have symptoms the disease will not hit as hard (compromise of lung function is one of the main factors in the disease)
- if they are positive but as yet symptom free the disease progression will be slower and not as severe.
- someone who is negative will be less likely to catch the disease, as they are putting their hands to their mouth less often, and for some people they will mingle less with strangers, accept cigarettes from friends less etc.
-within just a few days the lungs will start to become more efficient, and the blood will have less carbonmonoxide meaning that the person has to breathe less air in, meaning lower chances of infection.
-within a couple of weeks the immune system and general health will be significantly better, reducing the chance of infection.
Another relevant point that I think many people overlook. Someone who meets a positive person is not bound to be positive or immune. The chances are that none or too little of the virus really gets into the body to take hold.
Rory has done something different.
He has linked to a graph produced by a journalist, author and motivational public speaker and argued that it has the credibility of work by professional epidemiologists, data scientists and statisticians.
I can comment on something and show a graph produced by my simple-minded code using the Principles of Eadric-ology. But, I should not expect anything other than criticism and ridicule. That is what Rory deserves & should get.
If the government's politicians start arguing with the CMO and CS in public, then it's fair enough to criticise the response, but right now they're all saying exactly the same thing - while the media are giving airtime to a bunch of amateur epidemiologists who are either needlessly scaremongering or saying it's nothing to worry about.
Rishi will rescue us this afternoon (perhaps)
19% of non Labour voting Remainers say Starmer makes them more likely to vote Labour but only 7% of non Labour voting Leavers
There's no shortage in Tesco and Morrisons.
A friend I was with yesterday bought puts (now sold at a profit!) on the Dow and FTSEa short while ago which sounds like the type of trading you are doing. But for almost everyone else buy and hold is their (usually outsourced) strategy.
I'd be interested to know whether @Ishmael_Z had gone back into the markets again yet.
The reason I pointed out the Taiwan example is that they reacted a great deal more promptly - and their VP is an epidemiologist, and has regularly been issuing public briefings.
We're not out of the woods yet:
The move has been backed by Virgin Atlantic chief executive Shai Weiss, who said it was now vital to ensure the measures – described by von der Leyen as "temporary" – extend to all airlines around the world for the entire summer season.
"The impact of Covid-19 on our bookings has been significant and requires a swift response, which the transport secretary has recognised," said Weiss. “The European Commission today [Tuesday] indicated it is in favour of a temporary relaxation of the ’use it or lose it’ rule for flight slots at regulated airports.
"This is a positive step, but we urgently expect detail of these measures, and confirmation that alleviation will apply to all markets for the full summer season.
“Prompt publication of the legislation will allow the UK slot co-ordinator to act, enabling Virgin Atlantic and other airlines to operate schedules more efficiently and avoid flying almost empty planes for the sake of retaining valuable slots, which in turn creates unnecessary carbon emissions.”
https://www.ttgmedia.com/news/eu-to-suspend-use-it-or-lose-it-airport-slot-rule-21670
Given what the medical experts are telling us lies ahead - a period of lock down, then a significant (but hopefully less so than it might have been) epidemic, a gradual return to normal, with the probability of a further epidemic next winter, I don't think buying back in will make any sense at all in 2020.
Especially as the US looks as if it is setting itself up to be worst affected, and as you said yourself, Wall Street leads the world markets.
Are Waitrose shoppers older and have folk memories of some toilet roll shortage of long ago ?
Hopefully this will be the kick up the arse they need.
That's clearly not about not issuing advice because "it might be too early and the public might not take it seriously" etc. She was simply doing the wrong thing (not self-isolating as soon as she had an RTI), based on an incorrect assessment.
It is scientific advisors to the Government.
They are in general not Tories, and most of the ones I know are left-of-centre. They advise the Government because they think it part of their duty that the Government has access to high quality science advice.
If in the more likely scenario people are hoarding bog rolls whilst also getting food so they can live through a potential lock-down, then that isn't stupid. In fact it is super rational.
In an ideal world that building up of stock would have been going on for 3-4 weeks now.
As an small example, the CMO recently said in an interview of one piece of advice 'this seems paradoxical', and left it at that rather than explaining why.
https://twitter.com/renaehenry9/status/1237673515152629761?s=20
“The patient was admitted to the hospital in an already severe condition caused by preexisting illnesses including diabetes, hypertension, hyperthyroidism and years-long obstructive lung disease,” Achmad said.
He said the coronavirus infection had worsened the patient’s immune system, which had further exacerbated her preexisting illnesses. “So the coronavirus was not the main cause [of the patient’s death], but it had worsened her condition.”
https://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2020/03/11/indonesia-reports-first-death-from-covid-19.html
Let's hope that the covid-19 crisis opens the eyes of even some of the dimest Trumptons in the US.
Biden might sound a little confused at times but Trump actually believes the bullshit he comes out with on a daily basis.
Next review point is 6 April (new year isa and sipp money) but I don't see me doing anything about it. ftse 5000 and three months reasonable stability are probably what it takes to tempt me back in.
The latter case is likely pain deferred, of course, and not a case for a buy. But I wouldn't fancy being caught holding sell positions the day a vaccine is announced.
Are you privy to these discussions by chance? If so, do you know if there are a range of potential strategies and whether the government is pursuing one of them?
What's their utility function? How much are they willing to trade 10,000 deaths for a 1% reduction in GDP? Would be useful for the public to know.
I can't see she is of even junior ministerial quality.
I was as surprised finding out she was a minister as much as I was about the infection news.
Even HYUFD is relaxing his Trumptonite position.
Chatting yesterday to a colleague who is more in this field (heavily involved in WTO response to Ebola and was on the ground in that outbreak) he pointed out that, while he also knows nothing much from the public figures, those involved in the response will have more data. No crystal ball, but details on all the cases, how they got infected (if known) and the likely vectors of infection. They are in a better position to judge the correct responses at the correct time than all the armchair epidemiologists (qualified or not) looking at trend lines on the tracking websites.
Nothing wrong with sitting on cash even if the central bankers are trying to get you to do something with it.
American Tourist Complains To Scottish Hotel After Mistakenly Using Fudge As Soap.
The reviewer thought the confectionery was an exfoliating bar and even used it in the shower
https://www.ladbible.com/community/viral-us-tourist-blasts-scottish-hotel-after-mistaking-sweet-treat-for-soap-20200310
On Covid 19 there is a very limited amount of data and knowledge, which changes on a daily basis, and is not widely known. No single expert from any field can have good context of the impacts to other fields.
The two scenarios are very different. As long as the govt response is science led, given access to all available resources, other politicians and media should be very reluctant to criticise.
Also, hm the queen uses it, I have been omitting the Washlets ™ part of the drill all my life, and you should not use the plastic bag to commit suicide by asphyxiation. Never seen such an information rich bit of packaging.
Count yourselves lucky to have learned today's something new so soon after breakfast.
https://twitter.com/bengoldacre/status/1237678836638191617?s=20
Given Trump's usual self-isolation in the WH or the golf course, he may be the only one standing.
This was a genuine paid advert from them in Viz in the late 80's.
http://viz.co.uk/2014/09/25/wipe-arse-andrex/
Fantastic skiing for two days but empty slopes and hotels. Didn't visit bars or use gondalas. Alone on chair lifts. Sometimes couldn't see another person on the slopes.
Inghams did a great job getting us home (the Austrians prevented us getting to Innsbruck). Flew out of Verona on a rescue flight.
https://twitter.com/ChristabelCoops/status/1237680888940503040?s=20
We do know that MERS, another coronavirus, comes from Saudi Arabian camels.
https://twitter.com/benatipsosmori/status/1237681781559754752?s=20
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/f94c3c90da5b4e9f9a0b19484dd4bb14
Biden is an experienced Senator and former Vice-President. Even if he's not as sharp as he was he will have the sense to be surrounded by experienced advisers. He won't believe that he knows better than anyone else as Trump does.
Biden would be a very significant upgrade in the current crisis, instead we've got an egotistical moron.
Saudi is hot and sunny but dry, its lacking the humidity that we have in this counry.
*pause*
*whispers*
Oh.
Ladies and gentlemen I regret too say...