Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Biden moves to 93% chance on Betfair after walloping Bernie in

SystemSystem Posts: 12,169
edited March 2020 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Biden moves to 93% chance on Betfair after walloping Bernie in Michigan – a state won by Sanders at WH2016

Overnight we have seen another terrible night for Bernie Sanders in the latest range of state primaries. The biggest was Michigan which was taken by Sandesr against Hillary Clinton four years ago and was the first big indicator that all was not well well in the Clinton campaign. Trump then went on to take Michigan by a whisker in the general election itself.

Read the full story here


«13456711

Comments

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    edited March 2020
    First like Sleepy Joe.

    On COVID-19, part of the problem the government has is that, even if the right thing to do is wait, they are going to come under pressure to go early as most people will think "surely we need to act earlier than they did in Italy and other places?"
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    edited March 2020
    First, like, what's his name again? Bison?

    Edit: no.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,139
    edited March 2020
    Clear win for Biden overnight, driven by over 50s and pensioners, Sanders won those younger than 50 in Michigan

    https://twitter.com/pklinkne/status/1237548891286851584?s=20
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,167
    edited March 2020
    HYUFD was still sounding hopeful earlier on Sanders winning North Dakota and one other state - any chance of him clinging on by his fingernails ?

    I think he should probably use the historic opportunity to make a huge health rallying-call at the debate on Sunday and then bow out.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,225
    Yang - who backed Sanders four years ago - has now endorsed Biden.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,139
    edited March 2020

    HYUFD was still sounding hopeful earlier on Sanders winning North Dakota and one other state - any chance of him clinging on by his fingernails ?

    I think he should probably use the historic opportunity to make a huge health rallying-call at the debate on Sunday and then bow out.

    Sanders is leading in North Dakota 48.5% to 42% for Biden with 71% in.

    https://edition.cnn.com/election/2020/state/north-dakota

    Sanders also leads in Washington state 32.7% to 32.5% for Biden with 69% in

    https://edition.cnn.com/election/2020/state/washington
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    fpt

    Morning Top Team - betting post.

    For anyone who cares and who missed it last night and thinks they will still be alive to spend any winnings.

    Rich Ricci told me yesterday that Chacun Pour Soi was going to win the Champion Chase.

    DYOR, etc
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,225
    edited March 2020
    some people on PB who got on on Biden when he was just 4% and have seen a huge return on their bet which they could cash out on the exchanges.

    Cash out, and lay Trump.
    IMO & FWIW.

    (or have a punt on Topping's tip....)
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Dems creeping down to evens. Act fast, this special offer won't last.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    HYUFD said:

    Clear win for Biden overnight, driven by over 50s and pensioners, Sanders won those younger than 50 in Michigan

    https://twitter.com/pklinkne/status/1237548891286851584?s=20

    A-OK Boomers
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,139
    Alistair said:

    Dems creeping down to evens. Act fast, this special offer won't last.

    I think Biden will certainly give Trump a good run for his money but picking the more centrist candidate to take on an incumbent president does not guarantee victory, ask John Kerry and Mitt Romney who narrowly failed to beat Bush and Obama respectively.

    Biden might also have to pick Warren as his VP candidate to get 'progressives' especially younger Democrats who went for Sanders on board
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    Scott_xP said:
    Nadine stirring up a panic per usual.
    Sounds like she doesn’t know how she caught it, either.

    Did she go skiing?
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,225

    Scott_xP said:
    Nadine stirring up a panic per usual.
    Sounds like she doesn’t know how she caught it, either.

    Did she go skiing?
    I suggested that the government ought to have been advising everyone with respiratory tract infections to self isolate.
    Nadine is the perfect illustration of why that would have been good advice.
  • Re Biden - which UK politician is he comparable to
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    dr_spyn said:
    My goodness, that's all kinds of unnecessary.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,862
    Endillion said:

    First, like, what's his name again? Bison?

    Edit: no.

    I am sure that you can self identify as first if you are determined enough.
  • Scott_xP said:
    Nadine stirring up a panic per usual.
    Sounds like she doesn’t know how she caught it, either.

    Did she go skiing?
    Does anyone know how they catch it

    Maybe a little more empathy and less politics.

    Her 84 year old mother is showing symptons apparently
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,862
    Surely Sanders is going to suspend his campaign today. What's the point? He can't even hold rallies of the faithful anymore.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868

    Scott_xP said:
    Nadine stirring up a panic per usual.
    Sounds like she doesn’t know how she caught it, either.

    Did she go skiing?
    There's no obvious gap in her recent twitter feed that would suggest so.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773

    Re Biden - which UK politician is he comparable to

    Kinnock...
  • Re Biden - which UK politician is he comparable to

    Kinnock...
    Thank you
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,862
    Endillion said:

    dr_spyn said:
    My goodness, that's all kinds of unnecessary.
    Catching Covid 19 may look ultra conventional in the HoC all too soon if they don't change their mode of work.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,601
    "The underlying health conditions which affect how you cope with the coronavirus

    The virus appears to hit those with certain medical conditions the hardest - what are they and how could they lead to complications?"

    (£)

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/health-fitness/body/underlying-health-conditions-affect-cope-coronavirus/?li_source=LI&li_medium=li-recommendation-widget
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    DavidL said:

    Surely Sanders is going to suspend his campaign today. What's the point? He can't even hold rallies of the faithful anymore.

    There will certainly be pressure on him to. He delayed and delayed against Clinton last time, and that damaged her.

    There's a lot of anger against Biden by the Bernie Bro's and fellow travellers however.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868

    Re Biden - which UK politician is he comparable to

    Kinnock...
    both born in the same year
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176

    Re Biden - which UK politician is he comparable to

    Kinnock...
    Do you think he'll start yelling "we're alriiiiiiight" at the convention?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,862

    Re Biden - which UK politician is he comparable to

    Oh yes, what's his name....I forget.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,602

    Scott_xP said:
    Nadine stirring up a panic per usual.
    Sounds like she doesn’t know how she caught it, either.

    Did she go skiing?
    More likely that she’s been in and around hospitals treating infections for the past few weeks.

    She’s medically trained (was a nurse before Parliament) so would know the correct procedures.

    I wonder if she met the doctor who was in the news yesterday?
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    Kantar:

    Con 50
    Lab 29
    LD 11
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,489
    I'm about £800 up after commission.

    My shout-outs would go to @Pulpstar @Sandpit and @rcs1000 whose insights into the US elections (something I don't know much about other than what I personally read online) have been invaluable.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    DavidL said:

    Endillion said:

    First, like, what's his name again? Bison?

    Edit: no.

    I am sure that you can self identify as first if you are determined enough.
    Thank you for your "support" at this difficult and uncertain time for me.

    However, I'm far too focused on self-identifying as Covid-19- immune to give up now.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,489
    Alistair said:

    Dems creeping down to evens. Act fast, this special offer won't last.

    Aren't they already there??
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298

    Scott_xP said:
    Nadine stirring up a panic per usual.
    Sounds like she doesn’t know how she caught it, either.

    Did she go skiing?
    Does anyone know how they catch it

    Maybe a little more empathy and less politics.

    Her 84 year old mother is showing symptons apparently
    PB’s resident speech policeman clutches at his pearls again.

    I merely noted that (a) Nadine has a history of talking utter bollocks; (b) queries how she picked it up.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,489
    Also to @HYUFD for the very helpful poll cascade.
  • A health minister catching it in the early days isn't the scenario they will have thought of. I expect she was in the Department of Health whilst full of it - do they all now have to self isolate and what does that mean for the team combating its spread...?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Nadine stirring up a panic per usual.
    Sounds like she doesn’t know how she caught it, either.

    Did she go skiing?
    More likely that she’s been in and around hospitals treating infections for the past few weeks.

    She’s medically trained (was a nurse before Parliament) so would know the correct procedures.

    I wonder if she met the doctor who was in the news yesterday?
    In her WhatsApp she says the contract tracers haven’t been in touch yet? A bit worrying, isn’t it? She came down with it Friday/Saturday.
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,843
    FPT
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    @Nigelb

    Yes, one of the other features of the outbreak is that some people seem to catch it very easily while others much less so, despite intimate exposure. I wonder if natural variation in viral entry sites accounts for this. It has implications for herd immunity and the ceiling for infection numbers.

    I was reading up about the Black Death over the weekend, as you do when you need cheering up. It really was an extraordinary business. 30-50% of Europe's population are estimated to have died and it took 200 years for the population to recover.

    And yet, some people did survive it.

    Foxy said:

    Obviously we all wish Nadine Dorries a good recovery.

    I have to say though that her comment that she hopes she's over the worst of it doesn't seem to tally with the virus profile. Like the Spanish flu, it seems as if the worst part can come on when you think you're feeling better. That's my amateurish reading anyway.

    So presumably coronavirus is now spreading around Westminster. The Houses of Parliament must be an ideal breeding ground for the pernicious disease.

    And yet, they meet on. Infecting one another and all their staff.

    Yes, while flu peaks early, COVID19 seems to take a week or so to reach the critical stage. This seems to be the immune system getting out of control, causing a cytokine crisis of lung inflammation. It is still early days but it does look as if Tocilizumab may be having positive results.


    https://twitter.com/EvenWangMD/status/1237571344394420224?s=19
    This is the RA medication that my wife takes. Is this a sign that those taking this medication could be less affected by the virus? Or should I be concerned because the symptoms could be especially sever in people with RA? I have been worrying that my wife was a higher risk person because of the underlying condition (she is only 31 though so not in a risky age bracket)
    It is an early non peer reviewed report but it may be that she has the magic shield.

    It is the host cytokine response that seems to be the problem in severely affected cases. Quite how best to manage it is yet uncertain.
    Thanks for the response Foxy.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    Very little chat on the 50 point base rate cut.
    I read it as loading the cannons.

    What a phoney war this is.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    Scott_xP said:
    JRM probably insists on calling the coronavirus, “Spanish Flu”.
  • FossFoss Posts: 1,019
    The senior command team (including Dorris as a potential health-related replacement for Hancock) should be being tested every day so as to maximise handover time if they get it.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,602

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Nadine stirring up a panic per usual.
    Sounds like she doesn’t know how she caught it, either.

    Did she go skiing?
    More likely that she’s been in and around hospitals treating infections for the past few weeks.

    She’s medically trained (was a nurse before Parliament) so would know the correct procedures.

    I wonder if she met the doctor who was in the news yesterday?
    In her WhatsApp she says the contract tracers haven’t been in touch yet? A bit worrying, isn’t it? She came down with it Friday/Saturday.
    Unlike with most people, it should be relatively easy to identify people who have met an MP in the last couple of weeks - because everyone knows who she is, it’s easy to get word around and people should come forward.
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547
    IanB2 said:

    Re Biden - which UK politician is he comparable to

    Kinnock...
    both born in the same year
    I hadn’t clocked that. Older than John Major too. Makes you think - in this country that age group of politician is firmly retired. I’m fascinated by the cultural difference.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Nadine stirring up a panic per usual.
    Sounds like she doesn’t know how she caught it, either.

    Did she go skiing?
    More likely that she’s been in and around hospitals treating infections for the past few weeks.

    She’s medically trained (was a nurse before Parliament) so would know the correct procedures.

    I wonder if she met the doctor who was in the news yesterday?
    In her WhatsApp she says the contract tracers haven’t been in touch yet? A bit worrying, isn’t it? She came down with it Friday/Saturday.
    Only confirmed late yesterday. They'd be mad to (and couldn't cope with) trace contacts with everyone who pitches up with symptoms.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766


    HYUFD said:
    There seems little point in providing money for research into epidemiology, public health and transmission of infectious diseases.

    There are untrained experts on twitter that provide their insights & knowledge for free.
    "There seems little point in providing money for research into epidemiology, public health and transmission of infectious diseases."

    Well, Trump certainly agrees with that.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,482
    @Anabobazina regarding smoking from the previous thread. A few of the reasons why the government may not be strongly advocating quitting as part in of their anti-coronavirus strategy. The stress of quitting (particularly under these circumstances) can in some instances have greater health drawbacks in the short term than continuing. Quitting may lead to changes in habits that would be unpredictable and not necessarily aid containment eg outdoor fag break swapped for indoor interaction. Quitters who need NHS support and advice may tie up services needed for other things. Etc.
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547
    edited March 2020

    Scott_xP said:
    JRM probably insists on calling the coronavirus, “Spanish Flu”.
    *”Influenza” surely?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,102
    edited March 2020
    Is this the first 50% poll for Boris

    Kantar GE voting intention

    Con: 50%
    Lab: 29%
    LDem: 11%
    SNP: 4%
    Grn: 2%
    Brx: 1%
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547
    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Nadine stirring up a panic per usual.
    Sounds like she doesn’t know how she caught it, either.

    Did she go skiing?
    More likely that she’s been in and around hospitals treating infections for the past few weeks.

    She’s medically trained (was a nurse before Parliament) so would know the correct procedures.

    I wonder if she met the doctor who was in the news yesterday?
    In her WhatsApp she says the contract tracers haven’t been in touch yet? A bit worrying, isn’t it? She came down with it Friday/Saturday.
    Only confirmed late yesterday. They'd be mad to (and couldn't cope with) trace contacts with everyone who pitches up with symptoms.
    When a health minister gets infected (yes they meet those at the coal face, but they also follow precautions in doing so) it suggests we’re moving past the point where context tracing works.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Scott_xP said:
    JRM probably insists on calling the coronavirus, “Spanish Flu”.
    A quartain ague.
  • Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Nadine stirring up a panic per usual.
    Sounds like she doesn’t know how she caught it, either.

    Did she go skiing?
    More likely that she’s been in and around hospitals treating infections for the past few weeks.

    She’s medically trained (was a nurse before Parliament) so would know the correct procedures.

    I wonder if she met the doctor who was in the news yesterday?
    In her WhatsApp she says the contract tracers haven’t been in touch yet? A bit worrying, isn’t it? She came down with it Friday/Saturday.
    Unlike with most people, it should be relatively easy to identify people who have met an MP in the last couple of weeks - because everyone knows who she is, it’s easy to get word around and people should come forward.
    "If you've been in contact with Dorries step forward now, confess your sins and be cleansed..."
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677

    Scott_xP said:
    JRM probably insists on calling the coronavirus, “Spanish Flu”.
    *”Influenza” surely?
    "Grippe". Nanny will scrub JRM's little gentleman very hard with Sulphur Soap.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,482
    HYUFD said:
    I'm pretty sure he was still doing his walking around talking to random people act well into the outbreak.
  • @Anabobazina regarding smoking from the previous thread. A few of the reasons why the government may not be strongly advocating quitting as part in of their anti-coronavirus strategy. The stress of quitting (particularly under these circumstances) can in some instances have greater health drawbacks in the short term than continuing. Quitting may lead to changes in habits that would be unpredictable and not necessarily aid containment eg outdoor fag break swapped for indoor interaction. Quitters who need NHS support and advice may tie up services needed for other things. Etc.

    As someone who quit 16 years ago it is just about the most difficult habit to overcome.

    Furthermore, I would assume stopping now is a bit too late to help in covid 19
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,489
    FPT - if Biden doesn't make it to the convention, then it won't be Michelle Obama or Hillary Clinton who becomes the candidate. Clinton has way too much baggage, isn't popular and won't be trusted to beat Trump. I can't think of a worse pick.

    Michelle Obama just seems to be a fantasy. I haven't seen a single sign she's interested, she's said she has no passion for politics and hasn't been tested at all in politics - except for making one or two speeches for Barack.

    It will be someone who has stood and fought in this primary season, who's suspended their campaign and is also now a prospective vice-presidential, who can now reach out and unite the party.

    Elizabeth Warren would be my pick. Other runners could be Buttigieg or Klobuchar.

    I'd put Al Gore before the former two first ladies.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,729
    Re Covid 19 fpt.. my friend is on a Fred Olsen ship but do not know the name of it.. He got on in Barbados iirc.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,958
    A video I saw on Reddit yesterday showed Biden shouting at a man who asked him a question about the second amendment, and telling him (the questioner) that he was 'full of shit'. Biden also seems confused and frankly out of it in every video. Maybe he's a better shot than Sanders, but it's hard to believe he's the best the Democrats have to offer.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,482

    @Anabobazina regarding smoking from the previous thread. A few of the reasons why the government may not be strongly advocating quitting as part in of their anti-coronavirus strategy. The stress of quitting (particularly under these circumstances) can in some instances have greater health drawbacks in the short term than continuing. Quitting may lead to changes in habits that would be unpredictable and not necessarily aid containment eg outdoor fag break swapped for indoor interaction. Quitters who need NHS support and advice may tie up services needed for other things. Etc.

    As someone who quit 16 years ago it is just about the most difficult habit to overcome.

    Furthermore, I would assume stopping now is a bit too late to help in covid 19
    I didn't want to say that last one as it's never too late! But yes, it is a point.

    Do you have a link to that Kantar poll G?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,620
    tlg86 said:

    First like Sleepy Joe.

    On COVID-19, part of the problem the government has is that, even if the right thing to do is wait, they are going to come under pressure to go early as most people will think "surely we need to act earlier than they did in Italy and other places?"

    People might want the government to 'do something'.

    But they will be a lot less willing to change their own activities and lifestyles.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,225

    FPT - if Biden doesn't make it to the convention, then it won't be Michelle Obama or Hillary Clinton who becomes the candidate. Clinton has way too much baggage, isn't popular and won't be trusted to beat Trump. I can't think of a worse pick.

    Michelle Obama just seems to be a fantasy. I haven't seen a single sign she's interested, she's said she has no passion for politics and hasn't been tested at all in politics - except for making one or two speeches for Barack.

    It will be someone who has stood and fought in this primary season, who's suspended their campaign and is also now a prospective vice-presidential, who can now reach out and unite the party.

    Elizabeth Warren would be my pick. Other runners could be Buttigieg or Klobuchar.

    I'd put Al Gore before the former two first ladies.

    Biden isn't going to pick Warren, I think, as she's not all that much younger than him. Particularly in the context of his 'one term' and 'new generation' quote from yesterday.

    I note that Harris is no longer available at 1000/1 on Betfair for president...
  • @Anabobazina regarding smoking from the previous thread. A few of the reasons why the government may not be strongly advocating quitting as part in of their anti-coronavirus strategy. The stress of quitting (particularly under these circumstances) can in some instances have greater health drawbacks in the short term than continuing. Quitting may lead to changes in habits that would be unpredictable and not necessarily aid containment eg outdoor fag break swapped for indoor interaction. Quitters who need NHS support and advice may tie up services needed for other things. Etc.

    As someone who quit 16 years ago it is just about the most difficult habit to overcome.

    Furthermore, I would assume stopping now is a bit too late to help in covid 19
    I didn't want to say that last one as it's never too late! But yes, it is a point.

    Do you have a link to that Kantar poll G?
    https://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/status/1237655687846559747?s=09
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    @Anabobazina regarding smoking from the previous thread. A few of the reasons why the government may not be strongly advocating quitting as part in of their anti-coronavirus strategy. The stress of quitting (particularly under these circumstances) can in some instances have greater health drawbacks in the short term than continuing. Quitting may lead to changes in habits that would be unpredictable and not necessarily aid containment eg outdoor fag break swapped for indoor interaction. Quitters who need NHS support and advice may tie up services needed for other things. Etc.

    As someone who quit 16 years ago it is just about the most difficult habit to overcome.

    Furthermore, I would assume stopping now is a bit too late to help in covid 19
    The key thing is (and this is deadly serious advice) if anyone asks and is triaging you for an ICU bed, you've never smoked in your life.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176

    tlg86 said:

    First like Sleepy Joe.

    On COVID-19, part of the problem the government has is that, even if the right thing to do is wait, they are going to come under pressure to go early as most people will think "surely we need to act earlier than they did in Italy and other places?"

    People might want the government to 'do something'.

    But they will be a lot less willing to change their own activities and lifestyles.
    True - I've come across a lot of sceptics recently.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,225


    HYUFD said:
    There seems little point in providing money for research into epidemiology, public health and transmission of infectious diseases.

    There are untrained experts on twitter that provide their insights & knowledge for free.
    "There seems little point in providing money for research into epidemiology, public health and transmission of infectious diseases."

    Well, Trump certainly agrees with that.
    The graph that Rory Stewart has tweeted showing a neat "40 percent difference" in red is ludicrous. Any serious modeller would have confidence limits, for a start.

    The graph was created by someone called Tomas Pueyo, who seems to be a journalist and author, but he knows enough to create a simple model. We might as well ask SeanT & Henrietta to make the graph and get Rory to tweet it.

    Rory is someone who is coming out of this badly. My opinion of him has diminished very substantially. Who would have thought he would handle this worse than Boris?

    I think Boris realises how very damaging it would be to do something against the advice of his scientific and medical advisors.

    And epidemiology is a mature science on which a lot of research has been done for decades, and sophisticated modelling techniques are possible. So, Boris is right to listen to his experts (who are not party political).
    There are others, and other ways of responding:
    Response to COVID-19 in Taiwan
    Big Data Analytics, New Technology, and Proactive Testing

    https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762689

    And as has been pointed out numerous times, the government will have been given a range of options.
    Simple things like advising those with respiratory infections (Nadine) to self isolate were reasonably obvious to non experts a week ago.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    IshmaelZ said:

    The key thing is (and this is deadly serious advice) if anyone asks and is triaging you for an ICU bed, you've never smoked in your life.

    Unlikely to work. Many smokers can be spotted simply by what it does to their skin - women more so than men. The arms and hands take on a mottled grey/pink pattern, particularly the upper arms.
  • For those who were bemoaning the lack of EU action yesterday, they have waived the " use it or lose it " rule for airport slots. This saves airlines having to run empty flights just to keep the slots.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    David Aaronovitch tweets 'have to have a heart of stone not to laugh' about Nadie Dorres. Total piece of pond life.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,602
    edited March 2020


    HYUFD said:
    There seems little point in providing money for research into epidemiology, public health and transmission of infectious diseases.

    There are untrained experts on twitter that provide their insights & knowledge for free.
    "There seems little point in providing money for research into epidemiology, public health and transmission of infectious diseases."

    Well, Trump certainly agrees with that.
    The graph that Rory Stewart has tweeted showing a neat "40 percent difference" in red is ludicrous. Any serious modeller would have confidence limits, for a start.

    The graph was created by someone called Tomas Pueyo, who seems to be a journalist and author, but he knows enough to create a simple model. We might as well ask SeanT & Henrietta to make the graph and get Rory to tweet it.

    Rory is someone who is coming out of this badly. My opinion of him has diminished very substantially. Who would have thought he would handle this worse than Boris?

    I think Boris realises how very damaging it would be to do something against the advice of his scientific and medical advisors.

    And epidemiology is a mature science on which a lot of research has been done for decades, and sophisticated modelling techniques are possible. So, Boris is right to listen to his experts (who are not party political).
    Like yourself, I quite liked Rory until a couple of days ago, almost to the point of wondering if Shaun Bailey should stand aside and give him a free run at Sadiq.

    Not now, he's quickly turned into yet another of the amateur internet epidemiologists who think - without evidence - that their opinion is more important that those of the Chief Medical Officer and Chief Scientist.

    Politicians and journalists really need to shut up and listen to the genuine experts. As someone suggested here yesterday, the media should be sending their science or health correspondents to the government briefings, rather than the political correspondents.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Kantar:
    Among Lab GE19 Voters:

    Who do you think would make the best leader of the Labour party?
    Starmer: 25
    Nandy: 15
    Wrong-Daily: 8
    Don't Know: 52

    52% "Don't Know" among Labour voters and only a quarter for the favourite - hardly a ringing endorsement!
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    Ffs.......America has many, many more people infected then they are reporting.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/charliearchy/status/1237561261740527616
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,102
    edited March 2020
    IshmaelZ said:

    @Anabobazina regarding smoking from the previous thread. A few of the reasons why the government may not be strongly advocating quitting as part in of their anti-coronavirus strategy. The stress of quitting (particularly under these circumstances) can in some instances have greater health drawbacks in the short term than continuing. Quitting may lead to changes in habits that would be unpredictable and not necessarily aid containment eg outdoor fag break swapped for indoor interactioon. Quitters who need NHS support and advice may tie up services needed for other things. Etc.

    As someone who quit 16 years ago it is just about the most difficult habit to overcome.

    Furthermore, I would assume stopping now is a bit too late to help in covid 19
    The key thing is (and this is deadly serious advice) if anyone asks and is triaging you for an ICU bed, you've never smoked in your life.
    That is very kind of you but as I have diabetes and copd it is academic in my case
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,139

    Is this the first 50% poll for Boris

    Kantar GE voting intention

    Con: 50%
    Lab: 29%
    LDem: 11%
    SNP: 4%
    Grn: 2%
    Brx: 1%

    Until the Labour and LD leadership elections are decided GE polling is rather pointless
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773

    Kantar:
    Among Lab GE19 Voters:

    Who do you think would make the best leader of the Labour party?
    Starmer: 25
    Nandy: 15
    Wrong-Daily: 8
    Don't Know: 52

    52% "Don't Know" among Labour voters and only a quarter for the favourite - hardly a ringing endorsement!

    The labour leadership election has been very low key and low energy (outside of labour circles).
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,729

    @Anabobazina regarding smoking from the previous thread. A few of the reasons why the government may not be strongly advocating quitting as part in of their anti-coronavirus strategy. The stress of quitting (particularly under these circumstances) can in some instances have greater health drawbacks in the short term than continuing. Quitting may lead to changes in habits that would be unpredictable and not necessarily aid containment eg outdoor fag break swapped for indoor interaction. Quitters who need NHS support and advice may tie up services needed for other things. Etc.

    As someone who quit 16 years ago it is just about the most difficult habit to overcome.

    Furthermore, I would assume stopping now is a bit too late to help in covid 19
    I didn't want to say that last one as it's never too late! But yes, it is a point.

    Do you have a link to that Kantar poll G?
    Well done BIG G. I went cold turkey on cigarettes 7.5 yrs ago . it was blooming hard thing to do. I had voices in my head telling me it would be alright just to have one. It required considerable presence of mind to refuse offers from friends and even more difficult was stopping myself buying a pack of B and H.... after a week, the cravings diminished and I now cannot bear the smell, and its particularly unpleasant smelling cigarette smoke from others clothes.I guess is impossible to get rid of , bar dry cleaning.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Kantar - among non Labour GE voters:

    Would any of the candidates for the Labour party leadership make you more likely to vote for the Labour party?
    Starmer: 10
    Nandy: 4
    Wrong-Daily: 4
    None of these: 62
    Don't know: 21
  • There seem to be many approaches to this by many governments, and the UK has taken one kind of expert advice, particularly with Cummings' obsession with scientific data. Let's hope it's the right one.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,225

    @Anabobazina regarding smoking from the previous thread. A few of the reasons why the government may not be strongly advocating quitting as part in of their anti-coronavirus strategy. The stress of quitting (particularly under these circumstances) can in some instances have greater health drawbacks in the short term than continuing. Quitting may lead to changes in habits that would be unpredictable and not necessarily aid containment eg outdoor fag break swapped for indoor interaction. Quitters who need NHS support and advice may tie up services needed for other things. Etc.

    As someone who quit 16 years ago it is just about the most difficult habit to overcome.

    Furthermore, I would assume stopping now is a bit too late to help in covid 19
    I didn't want to say that last one as it's never too late! But yes, it is a point.

    Do you have a link to that Kantar poll G?
    Never too late:

    Smoking normalizes cerebral blood flow and oxygen consumption after 12-hour abstention
    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4420887/
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    Well, the Waitrose guy has been and gone. He says it's busier than Christmas with the home deliveries, they are calling people in on days off, and yesterday was their highest volume of online orders ever.

    And, yes, they have absolutely no toilet roll - he says there are people outside the store before it opens each day, and they go straight to the toilet roll aisle and within minutes whatever has been put out that day has gone. Madness.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609

    Kantar:
    Among Lab GE19 Voters:

    Who do you think would make the best leader of the Labour party?
    Starmer: 25
    Nandy: 15
    Wrong-Daily: 8
    Don't Know: 52

    52% "Don't Know" among Labour voters and only a quarter for the favourite - hardly a ringing endorsement!

    Hence Boris breaking 50%.....
  • GideonWiseGideonWise Posts: 1,123
    Rory is correct. Those attacking him now are wrong and will be shown to be wrong over the next few days and weeks.

    The ultimate irony is that the poor decision-making is going to impact upon the HoC of commons first and not, as is usually the case, the wider population.

    But it's coming for us all soon unless someone starts taking some positive action now.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    Morning all.

    I am calling the Nom for Joe. He IS the Dem nom. Trump v Biden in November.

    Any dissenters?
  • Kantar - among non Labour GE voters:

    Would any of the candidates for the Labour party leadership make you more likely to vote for the Labour party?
    Starmer: 10
    Nandy: 4
    Wrong-Daily: 4
    None of these: 62
    Don't know: 21

    Exactly what I thought as soon as I saw Starmer's public image compared to Miliband's or Corbyn's.
  • felix said:

    David Aaronovitch tweets 'have to have a heart of stone not to laugh' about Nadie Dorres. Total piece of pond life.

    This should not be political
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    Nigelb said:



    There are others, and other ways of responding:
    Response to COVID-19 in Taiwan
    Big Data Analytics, New Technology, and Proactive Testing

    https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762689

    And as has been pointed out numerous times, the government will have been given a range of options.
    Simple things like advising those with respiratory infections (Nadine) to self isolate were reasonably obvious to non experts a week ago.

    The government will been given a very strong steer by the scientific experts. (I know some of the people involved on the statistical side, and I have a very high opinion of their judgment).

    Whatever, that does not excuse Rory Stewart from tweeting a bollox graph made up by a journalist & author. The person who created the graph (Tomas Pueyo) has his profile on LinkedIn, so you evaluate for yourself whether to trust it, based on his experience. He seems to be a Bay Area SeanT.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    Scott_xP said:
    Raises the stakes for a lot of others!
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,167
    edited March 2020
    http://twitter.com/charliearchy/status/1237561261740527616

    I'm not sure Biden or even his replacement can take on the mountain of intellectual idiocy that is the US's attitude to healthcare, with it roots in the American Medical Association's adaptation to the McCarthyite period, and the idea that lack of public health, very specifically and above other similar things, is "freedom" ; which is why it's a shame Sanders will probably bow out.
  • @Anabobazina regarding smoking from the previous thread. A few of the reasons why the government may not be strongly advocating quitting as part in of their anti-coronavirus strategy. The stress of quitting (particularly under these circumstances) can in some instances have greater health drawbacks in the short term than continuing. Quitting may lead to changes in habits that would be unpredictable and not necessarily aid containment eg outdoor fag break swapped for indoor interaction. Quitters who need NHS support and advice may tie up services needed for other things. Etc.

    As someone who quit 16 years ago it is just about the most difficult habit to overcome.

    Furthermore, I would assume stopping now is a bit too late to help in covid 19
    I didn't want to say that last one as it's never too late! But yes, it is a point.

    Do you have a link to that Kantar poll G?
    Well done BIG G. I went cold turkey on cigarettes 7.5 yrs ago . it was blooming hard thing to do. I had voices in my head telling me it would be alright just to have one. It required considerable presence of mind to refuse offers from friends and even more difficult was stopping myself buying a pack of B and H.... after a week, the cravings diminished and I now cannot bear the smell, and its particularly unpleasant smelling cigarette smoke from others clothes.I guess is impossible to get rid of , bar dry cleaning.
    Very much my experience but it took 3 months cold turkey to achieve it

    Now I am so against smoking and cannot stand being near anyone smoking or vaping

    During my copd health check 2 years ago the nurse commented that stopping smoking had saved my life
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited March 2020

    A health minister catching it in the early days isn't the scenario they will have thought of.

    It happened very publicaly in Iran, and it has been spreading around governments of other countries too, so if they haven't thought it could happen here that would be incompetent.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,225
    felix said:

    David Aaronovitch tweets 'have to have a heart of stone not to laugh' about Nadie Dorres. Total piece of pond life.

    Certainly not his finest moment.

    As has been pointed out, she has an 84 year old mother also infected.
    Sympathy is in order, however much her case might illustrate missteps in government response.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,833
    felix said:

    David Aaronovitch tweets 'have to have a heart of stone not to laugh' about Nadie Dorres. Total piece of pond life.

    I can't comprehend the mindset that would react like this. It's all about goodies and baddies for him and his ilk, isn't it? Ugh.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,225
    Sandpit said:


    HYUFD said:
    There seems little point in providing money for research into epidemiology, public health and transmission of infectious diseases.

    There are untrained experts on twitter that provide their insights & knowledge for free.
    "There seems little point in providing money for research into epidemiology, public health and transmission of infectious diseases."

    Well, Trump certainly agrees with that.
    The graph that Rory Stewart has tweeted showing a neat "40 percent difference" in red is ludicrous. Any serious modeller would have confidence limits, for a start.

    The graph was created by someone called Tomas Pueyo, who seems to be a journalist and author, but he knows enough to create a simple model. We might as well ask SeanT & Henrietta to make the graph and get Rory to tweet it.

    Rory is someone who is coming out of this badly. My opinion of him has diminished very substantially. Who would have thought he would handle this worse than Boris?

    I think Boris realises how very damaging it would be to do something against the advice of his scientific and medical advisors.

    And epidemiology is a mature science on which a lot of research has been done for decades, and sophisticated modelling techniques are possible. So, Boris is right to listen to his experts (who are not party political).
    Like yourself, I quite liked Rory until a couple of days ago, almost to the point of wondering if Shaun Bailey should stand aside and give him a free run at Sadiq.

    Not now, he's quickly turned into yet another of the amateur internet epidemiologists who think - without evidence - that their opinion is more important that those of the Chief Medical Officer and Chief Scientist.

    Politicians and journalists really need to shut up and listen to the genuine experts. As someone suggested here yesterday, the media should be sending their science or health correspondents to the government briefings, rather than the political correspondents.
    Sorry, but this is balls.
    You might just as well say we shouldn't comment on government economic policy.
This discussion has been closed.