Nations by reported Coronavirus infection rate of over 1 per 100k population:
>20 per 100k: Iceland >10 per 100k: Italy, SK >5 per 100k: China, Iran, Switzerland, Norway, Denmark, Bahrain >2 per 100k: France, Spain, Netherlands, Sweden, Belgium, Austria, Singapore >1 per 100k: Germany, Hong Kong, Kuwait, Slovenia, Macau, Malta 1 per 100k bar excludes UK, USA most SE Asia, Japan at present
Looking at the FTSE we are so Wall Street's bitches.
Still little sign of a decisive assault on 24000, which is holding for now.
Rishi will rescue us this afternoon (perhaps)
I say it quite often that equities is really the only game in town for the majority of investors.
A friend I was with yesterday bought puts (now sold at a profit!) on the Dow and FTSEa short while ago which sounds like the type of trading you are doing. But for almost everyone else buy and hold is their (usually outsourced) strategy.
I'd be interested to know whether @Ishmael_Z had gone back into the markets again yet.
Buy and hold is the right strategy in almost all circumstances, the exception being the type of large longer lasting crash that comes along once or twice in a generation.
Given what the medical experts are telling us lies ahead - a period of lock down, then a significant (but hopefully less so than it might have been) epidemic, a gradual return to normal, with the probability of a further epidemic next winter, I don't think buying back in will make any sense at all in 2020.
Especially as the US looks as if it is setting itself up to be worst affected, and as you said yourself, Wall Street leads the world markets.
Im close to buying at these rates, especially the UK markets. My impression is the risks of big disaster have subsided a bit in the last week, even if the economic costs are becoming clearer. FTSE 6000 feels fair value and think year end could easily be back above 7000. We should get some volatility the next week or two to allow buying in around 5500 or lower.
On the underlying economic substance, you may have a point. You may also have a point in that previous crises have seen the bottom well before any resolution is in sight. It is however sentiment that drives markets, at least in the short term, and AFAICS a stream of bad news is pretty much nailed on for the next few months at least. I guess the counter-argument is if a vaccine or cure is discovered, or if by some miracle the virus melts away during the summer.
The latter case is likely pain deferred, of course, and not a case for a buy. But I wouldn't fancy being caught holding sell positions the day a vaccine is announced.
It doesnt sound like a miracle that the virus melts away during the summer. The govt are expecting a 3 week peak around April/May so are expecting big declines by the summer. It is odds on imo.
We don't know what this coronavirus does in summer.
We do know that MERS, another coronavirus, comes from Saudi Arabian camels.
We have to hope that because MERS was like that because it came from such a hot climate and that this will be less so because it has sprung up from the cold.
I didn't realize that the idiots running these wet markets, it isn't just animals from that area, they literally imported and cage together animals from every continent.
The UDI of Torbay is one of the minor puzzles of all this. It also pisses me off as it knocks God's own county off its rightful position at the top of the leader board.
There seems little point in providing money for research into epidemiology, public health and transmission of infectious diseases.
There are untrained experts on twitter that provide their insights & knowledge for free.
"There seems little point in providing money for research into epidemiology, public health and transmission of infectious diseases."
Well, Trump certainly agrees with that.
The graph that Rory Stewart has tweeted showing a neat "40 percent difference" in red is ludicrous. Any serious modeller would have confidence limits, for a start.
The graph was created by someone called Tomas Pueyo, who seems to be a journalist and author, but he knows enough to create a simple model. We might as well ask SeanT & Henrietta to make the graph and get Rory to tweet it.
Rory is someone who is coming out of this badly. My opinion of him has diminished very substantially. Who would have thought he would handle this worse than Boris?
I think Boris realises how very damaging it would be to do something against the advice of his scientific and medical advisors.
And epidemiology is a mature science on which a lot of research has been done for decades, and sophisticated modelling techniques are possible. So, Boris is right to listen to his experts (who are not party political).
Like yourself, I quite liked Rory until a couple of days ago, almost to the point of wondering if Shaun Bailey should stand aside and give him a free run at Sadiq.
Not now, he's quickly turned into yet another of the amateur internet epidemiologists who think - without evidence - that their opinion is more important that those of the Chief Medical Officer and Chief Scientist.
Politicians and journalists really need to shut up and listen to the genuine experts. As someone suggested here yesterday, the media should be sending their science or health correspondents to the government briefings, rather than the political correspondents.
Sorry, but this is balls. You might just as well say we shouldn't comment on government economic policy.
We all have broadly the same access to economic theories and data, there is tons of it out there, various policies have been tried in many countries over many different situations. People outside the govt can have close to as much knowledge as the Treasury. It is also not time critical.
On Covid 19 there is a very limited amount of data and knowledge, which changes on a daily basis, and is not widely known. No single expert from any field can have good context of the impacts to other fields.
The two scenarios are very different. As long as the govt response is science led, given access to all available resources, other politicians and media should be very reluctant to criticise.
It is the role of the scientific experts to set out the options: if you do a,x will happen; if you do b, y will happen, etc. But is the role of the politicians, not the experts, to choose whether to do a or b, and that is why it is a cop out for a politician to say they are simply following expert advice. Any choice is (one would hope!) science led, but choices must still be made. And other people may reasonably disagree with those choices.
I think that is very fair. And perhaps the govt decisions are all risk-adjusted and reflect that broad range of advice they are receiving from the scientific experts which would still make it "science led".
There seems little point in providing money for research into epidemiology, public health and transmission of infectious diseases.
There are untrained experts on twitter that provide their insights & knowledge for free.
"There seems little point in providing money for research into epidemiology, public health and transmission of infectious diseases."
Well, Trump certainly agrees with that.
The graph that Rory Stewart has tweeted showing a neat "40 percent difference" in red is ludicrous. Any serious modeller would have confidence limits, for a start.
The graph was created by someone called Tomas Pueyo, who seems to be a journalist and author, but he knows enough to create a simple model. We might as well ask SeanT & Henrietta to make the graph and get Rory to tweet it.
Rory is someone who is coming out of this badly. My opinion of him has diminished very substantially. Who would have thought he would handle this worse than Boris?
I think Boris realises how very damaging it would be to do something against the advice of his scientific and medical advisors.
And epidemiology is a mature science on which a lot of research has been done for decades, and sophisticated modelling techniques are possible. So, Boris is right to listen to his experts (who are not party political).
Like yourself, I quite liked Rory until a couple of days ago, almost to the point of wondering if Shaun Bailey should stand aside and give him a free run at Sadiq.
Not now, he's quickly turned into yet another of the amateur internet epidemiologists who think - without evidence - that their opinion is more important that those of the Chief Medical Officer and Chief Scientist.
Politicians and journalists really need to shut up and listen to the genuine experts. As someone suggested here yesterday, the media should be sending their science or health correspondents to the government briefings, rather than the political correspondents.
Sorry, but this is balls. You might just as well say we shouldn't comment on government economic policy.
We all have broadly the same access to economic theories and data, there is tons of it out there, various policies have been tried in many countries over many different situations. People outside the govt can have close to as much knowledge as the Treasury. It is also not time critical.
On Covid 19 there is a very limited amount of data and knowledge, which changes on a daily basis, and is not widely known. No single expert from any field can have good context of the impacts to other fields.
The two scenarios are very different. As long as the govt response is science led, given access to all available resources, other politicians and media should be very reluctant to criticise.
It is the role of the scientific experts to set out the options: if you do a,x will happen; if you do b, y will happen, etc. But is the role of the politicians, not the experts, to choose whether to do a or b, and that is why it is a cop out for a politician to say they are simply following expert advice. Any choice is (one would hope!) science led, but choices must still be made. And other people may disagree with those choices.
I would agree with you. But... it is a decision by the government which experts they listen to, and how scientificallly and empricially based their advice ist. In short: some are like Ben Goldacre and others are like Goldacre's villain-in-chief (whose name rhymes with Dylan Muck-Teeth).
For a while the British Government (both Labour and Conservative) was making great strides in improving the science behind their decisions, but it seems to me that they have been going backwards in the last few years
The UDI of Torbay is one of the minor puzzles of all this. It also pisses me off as it knocks God's own county off its rightful position at the top of the leader board.
For the sake of the nation, surely he needs to have a Sport Direct sized mug with Yorkshire Tea plastered on it from which he drinks during the speech.
A video I saw on Reddit yesterday showed Biden shouting at a man who asked him a question about the second amendment, and telling him (the questioner) that he was 'full of shit'. Biden also seems confused and frankly out of it in every video. Maybe he's a better shot than Sanders, but it's hard to believe he's the best the Democrats have to offer.
Biden is not ideal (who is?) but the consensus across the political spectrum on PB seems to be that just about anybody would be better than Trump.
Let's hope that the covid-19 crisis opens the eyes of even some of the dimest Trumptons in the US.
Biden might sound a little confused at times but Trump actually believes the bullshit he comes out with on a daily basis.
Yes, I think the Trumptons on here are now limited to the hard right TGOHF and perhaps the Putinite crank Lucky Guy.
Even HYUFD is relaxing his Trumptonite position.
I am not a Trump supporter, or a 'Putinite' whatever that means, though why I should care what a malevolent sack of shit like you thinks is a mystery.
Looking at the FTSE we are so Wall Street's bitches.
Still little sign of a decisive assault on 24000, which is holding for now.
Rishi will rescue us this afternoon (perhaps)
I say it quite often that equities is really the only game in town for the majority of investors.
A friend I was with yesterday bought puts (now sold at a profit!) on the Dow and FTSEa short while ago which sounds like the type of trading you are doing. But for almost everyone else buy and hold is their (usually outsourced) strategy.
I'd be interested to know whether @Ishmael_Z had gone back into the markets again yet.
Buy and hold is the right strategy in almost all circumstances, the exception being the type of large longer lasting crash that comes along once or twice in a generation.
Given what the medical experts are telling us lies ahead - a period of lock down, then a significant (but hopefully less so than it might have been) epidemic, a gradual return to normal, with the probability of a further epidemic next winter, I don't think buying back in will make any sense at all in 2020.
Especially as the US looks as if it is setting itself up to be worst affected, and as you said yourself, Wall Street leads the world markets.
Im close to buying at these rates, especially the UK markets. My impression is the risks of big disaster have subsided a bit in the last week, even if the economic costs are becoming clearer. FTSE 6000 feels fair value and think year end could easily be back above 7000. We should get some volatility the next week or two to allow buying in around 5500 or lower.
On the underlying economic substance, you may have a point. You may also have a point in that previous crises have seen the bottom well before any resolution is in sight. It is however sentiment that drives markets, at least in the short term, and AFAICS a stream of bad news is pretty much nailed on for the next few months at least. I guess the counter-argument is if a vaccine or cure is discovered, or if by some miracle the virus melts away during the summer.
The latter case is likely pain deferred, of course, and not a case for a buy. But I wouldn't fancy being caught holding sell positions the day a vaccine is announced.
It doesnt sound like a miracle that the virus melts away during the summer. The govt are expecting a 3 week peak around April/May so are expecting big declines by the summer. It is odds on imo.
We don't know what this coronavirus does in summer.
We do know that MERS, another coronavirus, comes from Saudi Arabian camels.
I agree we dont know, that is why i gave a probability estimate and stated it was my opinion. If I was under the apprehension it was a fact neither would have applied.
Arrived back from Northern Italy in the early hours to find my flat stocked with flowers and food by my daughters in anticipation of my self isolation for 14 days.
Fantastic skiing for two days but empty slopes and hotels. Didn't visit bars or use gondalas. Alone on chair lifts. Sometimes couldn't see another person on the slopes.
Inghams did a great job getting us home (the Austrians prevented us getting to Innsbruck). Flew out of Verona on a rescue flight.
Glad you made it back, and hopefully healthy.
There has been some talk about how hard it is mentally to self isolate for 14 days. Be fascinating to have your personal experience on here as you go through the days.
There seems little point in providing money for research into epidemiology, public health and transmission of infectious diseases.
There are untrained experts on twitter that provide their insights & knowledge for free.
"There seems little point in providing money for research into epidemiology, public health and transmission of infectious diseases."
Well, Trump certainly agrees with that.
The graph that Rory Stewart has tweeted showing a neat "40 percent difference" in red is ludicrous. Any serious modeller would have confidence limits, for a start.
The graph was created by someone called Tomas Pueyo, who seems to be a journalist and author, but he knows enough to create a simple model. We might as well ask SeanT & Henrietta to make the graph and get Rory to tweet it.
Rory is someone who is coming out of this badly. My opinion of him has diminished very substantially. Who would have thought he would handle this worse than Boris?
I think Boris realises how very damaging it would be to do something against the advice of his scientific and medical advisors.
And epidemiology is a mature science on which a lot of research has been done for decades, and sophisticated modelling techniques are possible. So, Boris is right to listen to his experts (who are not party political).
Like yourself, I quite liked Rory until a couple of days ago, almost to the point of wondering if Shaun Bailey should stand aside and give him a free run at Sadiq.
Not now, he's quickly turned into yet another of the amateur internet epidemiologists who think - without evidence - that their opinion is more important that those of the Chief Medical Officer and Chief Scientist.
Politicians and journalists really need to shut up and listen to the genuine experts. As someone suggested here yesterday, the media should be sending their science or health correspondents to the government briefings, rather than the political correspondents.
Sorry, but this is balls. You might just as well say we shouldn't comment on government economic policy.
We all have broadly the same access to economic theories and data, there is tons of it out there, various policies have been tried in many countries over many different situations. People outside the govt can have close to as much knowledge as the Treasury. It is also not time critical.
On Covid 19 there is a very limited amount of data and knowledge, which changes on a daily basis, and is not widely known. No single expert from any field can have good context of the impacts to other fields.
The two scenarios are very different. As long as the govt response is science led, given access to all available resources, other politicians and media should be very reluctant to criticise.
It is the role of the scientific experts to set out the options: if you do a,x will happen; if you do b, y will happen, etc. But is the role of the politicians, not the experts, to choose whether to do a or b, and that is why it is a cop out for a politician to say they are simply following expert advice. Any choice is (one would hope!) science led, but choices must still be made. And other people may reasonably disagree with those choices.
The US response is very clearly stock market led not scientific led. The Iranian response was very clearly religion led.
Looking at the FTSE we are so Wall Street's bitches.
Still little sign of a decisive assault on 24000, which is holding for now.
Rishi will rescue us this afternoon (perhaps)
I say it quite often that equities is really the only game in town for the majority of investors.
A friend I was with yesterday bought puts (now sold at a profit!) on the Dow and FTSEa short while ago which sounds like the type of trading you are doing. But for almost everyone else buy and hold is their (usually outsourced) strategy.
I'd be interested to know whether @Ishmael_Z had gone back into the markets again yet.
Buy and hold is the right strategy in almost all circumstances, the exception being the type of large longer lasting crash that comes along once or twice in a generation.
Given what the medical experts are telling us lies ahead - a period of lock down, then a significant (but hopefully less so than it might have been) epidemic, a gradual return to normal, with the probability of a further epidemic next winter, I don't think buying back in will make any sense at all in 2020.
Especially as the US looks as if it is setting itself up to be worst affected, and as you said yourself, Wall Street leads the world markets.
Im close to buying at these rates, especially the UK markets. My impression is the risks of big disaster have subsided a bit in the last week, even if the economic costs are becoming clearer. FTSE 6000 feels fair value and think year end could easily be back above 7000. We should get some volatility the next week or two to allow buying in around 5500 or lower.
On the underlying economic substance, you may have a point. You may also have a point in that previous crises have seen the bottom well before any resolution is in sight. It is however sentiment that drives markets, at least in the short term, and AFAICS a stream of bad news is pretty much nailed on for the next few months at least. I guess the counter-argument is if a vaccine or cure is discovered, or if by some miracle the virus melts away during the summer.
The latter case is likely pain deferred, of course, and not a case for a buy. But I wouldn't fancy being caught holding sell positions the day a vaccine is announced.
It doesnt sound like a miracle that the virus melts away during the summer. The govt are expecting a 3 week peak around April/May so are expecting big declines by the summer. It is odds on imo.
We don't know what this coronavirus does in summer.
Looking at the FTSE we are so Wall Street's bitches.
Still little sign of a decisive assault on 24000, which is holding for now.
Rishi will rescue us this afternoon (perhaps)
I say it quite often that equities is really the only game in town for the majority of investors.
A friend I was with yesterday bought puts (now sold at a profit!) on the Dow and FTSEa short while ago which sounds like the type of trading you are doing. But for almost everyone else buy and hold is their (usually outsourced) strategy.
I'd be interested to know whether @Ishmael_Z had gone back into the markets again yet.
Buy and hold is the right strategy in almost all circumstances, the exception being the type of large longer lasting crash that comes along once or twice in a generation.
Given what the medical experts are telling us lies ahead - a period of lock down, then a significant (but hopefully less so than it might have been) epidemic, a gradual return to normal, with the probability of a further epidemic next winter, I don't think buying back in will make any sense at all in 2020.
Especially as the US looks as if it is setting itself up to be worst affected, and as you said yourself, Wall Street leads the world markets.
Im close to buying at these rates, especially the UK markets. My impression is the risks of big disaster have subsided a bit in the last week, even if the economic costs are becoming clearer. FTSE 6000 feels fair value and think year end could easily be back above 7000. We should get some volatility the next week or two to allow buying in around 5500 or lower.
On the underlying economic substance, you may have a point. You may also have a point in that previous crises have seen the bottom well before any resolution is in sight. It is however sentiment that drives markets, at least in the short term, and AFAICS a stream of bad news is pretty much nailed on for the next few months at least. I guess the counter-argument is if a vaccine or cure is discovered, or if by some miracle the virus melts away during the summer.
The latter case is likely pain deferred, of course, and not a case for a buy. But I wouldn't fancy being caught holding sell positions the day a vaccine is announced.
It doesnt sound like a miracle that the virus melts away during the summer. The govt are expecting a 3 week peak around April/May so are expecting big declines by the summer. It is odds on imo.
We don't know what this coronavirus does in summer.
it isn't summer in the southern hemisphere?
Huge, if true....
I think Australia has ~120 cases, but I believe again majority of those are imported from China and Italy (and it got into an OAP home, which is the equivalent of cruise ship really).
Nations by Coronavirus infection rate of over 1 per 100k population:
>20 per 100k: Iceland >10 per 100k: Italy, SK >5 per 100k: China, Iran, Switzerland, Norway, Denmark, Bahrain >2 per 100k: France, Spain, Netherlands, Sweden, Belgium, Austria, Singapore >1 per 100k: Germany, Hong Kong, Kuwait, Slovenia, Macau, Malta 1 per 100k bar excludes UK, most SE Asia, Japan at present
The Iceland case is like a test cricketer who plays 4 innings scoring 80 runs and not out 3 times. His average is 80 runs, second only to Donald Bradman. There is a reason why tables of records have a cut off for small denominators. The total population of Iceland ist simply too low to make it comparable with e.g. Switzerland.
I have just done some lightweight panic buying as I intend to self isolate after a skiing trip, no shortages of anything, very quiet, and no-one panic buying. A few years ago I did a 28 day expedition in Nepal, miles from anywhere, towards the end the most valuable commodity was toilet paper. Nepalese often call toilet paper "The European prayer flag"
Looking at the FTSE we are so Wall Street's bitches.
Still little sign of a decisive assault on 24000, which is holding for now.
Rishi will rescue us this afternoon (perhaps)
I say it quite often that equities is really the only game in town for the majority of investors.
A friend I was with yesterday bought puts (now sold at a profit!) on the Dow and FTSEa short while ago which sounds like the type of trading you are doing. But for almost everyone else buy and hold is their (usually outsourced) strategy.
I'd be interested to know whether @Ishmael_Z had gone back into the markets again yet.
Buy and hold is the right strategy in almost all circumstances, the exception being the type of large longer lasting crash that comes along once or twice in a generation.
Given what the medical experts are telling us lies ahead - a period of lock down, then a significant (but hopefully less so than it might have been) epidemic, a gradual return to normal, with the probability of a further epidemic next winter, I don't think buying back in will make any sense at all in 2020.
Especially as the US looks as if it is setting itself up to be worst affected, and as you said yourself, Wall Street leads the world markets.
Im close to buying at these rates, especially the UK markets. My impression is the risks of big disaster have subsided a bit in the last week, even if the economic costs are becoming clearer. FTSE 6000 feels fair value and think year end could easily be back above 7000. We should get some volatility the next week or two to allow buying in around 5500 or lower.
On the underlying economic substance, you may have a point. You may also have a point in that previous crises have seen the bottom well before any resolution is in sight. It is however sentiment that drives markets, at least in the short term, and AFAICS a stream of bad news is pretty much nailed on for the next few months at least. I guess the counter-argument is if a vaccine or cure is discovered, or if by some miracle the virus melts away during the summer.
The latter case is likely pain deferred, of course, and not a case for a buy. But I wouldn't fancy being caught holding sell positions the day a vaccine is announced.
It doesnt sound like a miracle that the virus melts away during the summer. The govt are expecting a 3 week peak around April/May so are expecting big declines by the summer. It is odds on imo.
We don't know what this coronavirus does in summer.
There seems little point in providing money for research into epidemiology, public health and transmission of infectious diseases.
There are untrained experts on twitter that provide their insights & knowledge for free.
"There seems little point in providing money for research into epidemiology, public health and transmission of infectious diseases."
Well, Trump certainly agrees with that.
The graph that Rory Stewart has tweeted showing a neat "40 percent difference" in red is ludicrous. Any serious modeller would have confidence limits, for a start.
The graph was created by someone called Tomas Pueyo, who seems to be a journalist and author, but he knows enough to create a simple model. We might as well ask SeanT & Henrietta to make the graph and get Rory to tweet it.
Rory is someone who is coming out of this badly. My opinion of him has diminished very substantially. Who would have thought he would handle this worse than Boris?
I think Boris realises how very damaging it would be to do something against the advice of his scientific and medical advisors.
And epidemiology is a mature science on which a lot of research has been done for decades, and sophisticated modelling techniques are possible. So, Boris is right to listen to his experts (who are not party political).
Like yourself, I quite liked Rory until a couple of days ago, almost to the point of wondering if Shaun Bailey should stand aside and give him a free run at Sadiq.
Not now, he's quickly turned into yet another of the amateur internet epidemiologists who think - without evidence - that their opinion is more important that those of the Chief Medical Officer and Chief Scientist.
Politicians and journalists really need to shut up and listen to the genuine experts. As someone suggested here yesterday, the media should be sending their science or health correspondents to the government briefings, rather than the political correspondents.
Sorry, but this is balls. You might just as well say we shouldn't comment on government economic policy.
We all have broadly the same access to economic theories and data, there is tons of it out there, various policies have been tried in many countries over many different situations. People outside the govt can have close to as much knowledge as the Treasury. It is also not time critical.
On Covid 19 there is a very limited amount of data and knowledge, which changes on a daily basis, and is not widely known. No single expert from any field can have good context of the impacts to other fields.
The two scenarios are very different. As long as the govt response is science led, given access to all available resources, other politicians and media should be very reluctant to criticise.
It is the role of the scientific experts to set out the options: if you do a,x will happen; if you do b, y will happen, etc. But is the role of the politicians, not the experts, to choose whether to do a or b, and that is why it is a cop out for a politician to say they are simply following expert advice. Any choice is (one would hope!) science led, but choices must still be made. And other people may reasonably disagree with those choices.
The US response is very clearly stock market led not scientific led. The Iranian response was very clearly religion led.
Indeed, and that is tragic. The job of the politicians is (or should be!) to choose between a and b, not to dispute or ignore the scientific evidence that a will result in x, etc. We're not, I hope, that bad, but scientifically led politicians still have to make political, and hence disputable, choices.
Arrived back from Northern Italy in the early hours to find my flat stocked with flowers and food by my daughters in anticipation of my self isolation for 14 days.
Fantastic skiing for two days but empty slopes and hotels. Didn't visit bars or use gondalas. Alone on chair lifts. Sometimes couldn't see another person on the slopes.
Inghams did a great job getting us home (the Austrians prevented us getting to Innsbruck). Flew out of Verona on a rescue flight.
Glad you made it back, and hopefully healthy.
There has been some talk about how hard it is mentally to self isolate for 14 days. Be fascinating to have your personal experience on here as you go through the days.
I feel very healthy. I've even got a tan. I'm fully provisioned including 15 bog rolls - I alway keep a buffer of 9. I have a balcony where I can sit in the sun watching the world go by. Lots of news to follow, TV to watch, bets to make, comments on here. Family, friends and helpful neighbours nearby. So far, so good. But I only got home at 2:45am today so early days.
Looking at the FTSE we are so Wall Street's bitches.
Still little sign of a decisive assault on 24000, which is holding for now.
Rishi will rescue us this afternoon (perhaps)
I say it quite often that equities is really the only game in town for the majority of investors.
A friend I was with yesterday bought puts (now sold at a profit!) on the Dow and FTSEa short while ago which sounds like the type of trading you are doing. But for almost everyone else buy and hold is their (usually outsourced) strategy.
I'd be interested to know whether @Ishmael_Z had gone back into the markets again yet.
Buy and hold is the right strategy in almost all circumstances, the exception being the type of large longer lasting crash that comes along once or twice in a generation.
Given what the medical experts are telling us lies ahead - a period of lock down, then a significant (but hopefully less so than it might have been) epidemic, a gradual return to normal, with the probability of a further epidemic next winter, I don't think buying back in will make any sense at all in 2020.
Especially as the US looks as if it is setting itself up to be worst affected, and as you said yourself, Wall Street leads the world markets.
Im close to buying at these rates, especially the UK markets. My impression is the risks of big disaster have subsided a bit in the last week, even if the economic costs are becoming clearer. FTSE 6000 feels fair value and think year end could easily be back above 7000. We should get some volatility the next week or two to allow buying in around 5500 or lower.
On the underlying economic substance, you may have a point. You may also have a point in that previous crises have seen the bottom well before any resolution is in sight. It is however sentiment that drives markets, at least in the short term, and AFAICS a stream of bad news is pretty much nailed on for the next few months at least. I guess the counter-argument is if a vaccine or cure is discovered, or if by some miracle the virus melts away during the summer.
The latter case is likely pain deferred, of course, and not a case for a buy. But I wouldn't fancy being caught holding sell positions the day a vaccine is announced.
It doesnt sound like a miracle that the virus melts away during the summer. The govt are expecting a 3 week peak around April/May so are expecting big declines by the summer. It is odds on imo.
We don't know what this coronavirus does in summer.
We do know that MERS, another coronavirus, comes from Saudi Arabian camels.
Its worth bearing in mind that most coronaviruses melt away in a combination of hot, sunny and humid.
Saudi is hot and sunny but dry, its lacking the humidity that we have in this counry.
Totally off topic: I remeber an Italian student spending a year at Bath Uni was genuinely surprised how hot 24° in England seemed. The reason being the much higher humidity of a summer in the UK compared to North Italy.
In case the Chancellor is reading, I would just like to propose that if he reads through the budget bingo list at the start of his speech it will act as a decent economic stimulus; at least in this bit of the country.
Looking at the FTSE we are so Wall Street's bitches.
Still little sign of a decisive assault on 24000, which is holding for now.
Rishi will rescue us this afternoon (perhaps)
I say it quite often that equities is really the only game in town for the majority of investors.
A friend I was with yesterday bought puts (now sold at a profit!) on the Dow and FTSEa short while ago which sounds like the type of trading you are doing. But for almost everyone else buy and hold is their (usually outsourced) strategy.
I'd be interested to know whether @Ishmael_Z had gone back into the markets again yet.
Buy and hold is the right strategy in almost all circumstances, the exception being the type of large longer lasting crash that comes along once or twice in a generation.
Given what the medical experts are telling us lies ahead - a period of lock down, then a significant (but hopefully less so than it might have been) epidemic, a gradual return to normal, with the probability of a further epidemic next winter, I don't think buying back in will make any sense at all in 2020.
Especially as the US looks as if it is setting itself up to be worst affected, and as you said yourself, Wall Street leads the world markets.
Im close to buying at these rates, especially the UK markets. My impression is the risks of big disaster have subsided a bit in the last week, even if the economic costs are becoming clearer. FTSE 6000 feels fair value and think year end could easily be back above 7000. We should get some volatility the next week or two to allow buying in around 5500 or lower.
On the underlying economic substance, you may have a point. You may also have a point in that previous crises have seen the bottom well before any resolution is in sight. It is however sentiment that drives markets, at least in the short term, and AFAICS a stream of bad news is pretty much nailed on for the next few months at least. I guess the counter-argument is if a vaccine or cure is discovered, or if by some miracle the virus melts away during the summer.
The latter case is likely pain deferred, of course, and not a case for a buy. But I wouldn't fancy being caught holding sell positions the day a vaccine is announced.
It doesnt sound like a miracle that the virus melts away during the summer. The govt are expecting a 3 week peak around April/May so are expecting big declines by the summer. It is odds on imo.
We don't know what this coronavirus does in summer.
Perhaps this will be the moment Westminster finally modernises and allows remote /electronic voting
"The Corona positives to the right 356..."
New idea for a dystopia: all MPs except JRM are quarantined, allowing him to pass legilsation re-consituting the Corn laws and bringing back the workhouse
Perhaps this will be the moment Westminster finally modernises and allows remote /electronic voting
"The Corona positives to the right 356..."
Guten Morgen, Mr Doof! You were complaining about a lack of publicity. Switch on your telly. Bundespressekonferenz broadcast live on Phoenix, RTL, NTV, WELT TV with Merkel, Spahn and the RKI chair.
There seems little point in providing money for research into epidemiology, public health and transmission of infectious diseases.
There are untrained experts on twitter that provide their insights & knowledge for free.
"There seems little point in providing money for research into epidemiology, public health and transmission of infectious diseases."
Well, Trump certainly agrees with that.
The graph that Rory Stewart has tweeted showing a neat "40 percent difference" in red is ludicrous. Any serious modeller would have confidence limits, for a start.
The graph was created by someone called Tomas Pueyo, who seems to be a journalist and author, but he knows enough to create a simple model. We might as well ask SeanT & Henrietta to make the graph and get Rory to tweet it.
Rory is someone who is coming out of this badly. My opinion of him has diminished very substantially. Who would have thought he would handle this worse than Boris?
I think Boris realises how very damaging it would be to do something against the advice of his scientific and medical advisors.
And epidemiology is a mature science on which a lot of research has been done for decades, and sophisticated modelling techniques are possible. So, Boris is right to listen to his experts (who are not party political).
Like yourself, I quite liked Rory until a couple of days ago, almost to the point of wondering if Shaun Bailey should stand aside and give him a free run at Sadiq.
Not now, he's quickly turned into yet another of the amateur internet epidemiologists who think - without evidence - that their opinion is more important that those of the Chief Medical Officer and Chief Scientist.
Politicians and journalists really need to shut up and listen to the genuine experts. As someone suggested here yesterday, the media should be sending their science or health correspondents to the government briefings, rather than the political correspondents.
Sorry, but this is balls. You might just as well say we shouldn't comment on government economic policy.
We all have broadly the same access to economic theories and data, there is tons of it out there, various policies have been tried in many countries over many different situations. People outside the govt can have close to as much knowledge as the Treasury. It is also not time critical.
On Covid 19 there is a very limited amount of data and knowledge, which changes on a daily basis, and is not widely known. No single expert from any field can have good context of the impacts to other fields.
The two scenarios are very different. As long as the govt response is science led, given access to all available resources, other politicians and media should be very reluctant to criticise.
Actually much of the science on Covid is being posted online as it develops.
As an example, I noted the German paper reporting patients presenting with cold symptoms who were shedding virus, and questioned why government wasn't advising all those with URTIs to self isolate. (Which action might have prevented Nadine infecting half the cabinet...)
First, I wish Nadine Dorries and indeed all those suffering from coronavirus a swift and full recovery.
I'm left with the thought there seem to be a lot of asymptomatic people out there so perhaps this won't last. I presume once you've had it you can't have it again (I may be wrong about that) while asymptomatic people will just carry the virus without the symptoms.
If the proportion of asymptomatic people is large it will be serious (and for some, regrettably, a lot more than serious) but for many it will be nothing.
One of the reasons the Spanish Flu did so much damage it was a new variant to which no one was immune or asymptomatic. Everyone was vulnerable and the death toll was enormous.
On potholes and road repairs, I'm afraid it was the unbalanced austerity of the Coalition that has led to the significant fall in spending on highway maintenance. By ring-fencing the NHS and Education, the axe fell disproportionately elsewhere and spending on roads has fallen by about a half in real terms since 2010.
Our roads are a disgrace and there is a point about providing reliable transport infrastructure so it is about planes, trains and automobiles (and ships and barges and buses and ferries and trams and the rest).
Nations by Coronavirus infection rate of over 1 per 100k population:
>20 per 100k: Iceland >10 per 100k: Italy, SK >5 per 100k: China, Iran, Switzerland, Norway, Denmark, Bahrain >2 per 100k: France, Spain, Netherlands, Sweden, Belgium, Austria, Singapore >1 per 100k: Germany, Hong Kong, Kuwait, Slovenia, Macau, Malta 1 per 100k bar excludes UK, most SE Asia, Japan at present
The Iceland case is like a test cricketer who plays 4 innings scoring 80 runs and not out 3 times. His average is 80 runs, second only to Donald Bradman. There is a reason why tables of records have a cut off for small denominators. The total population of Iceland ist simply too low to make it comparable with e.g. Switzerland.
Tbf, I cut off San Marino. Iceland feeds into a pattern of Nordic countries being quite high up this list, and its 80 cases are somewhat more noteworthy in world terms than a cricketer with 80 aggregate runs.
With a squint of my eye there does seem to be something of a north-south dynamic in many places where you might think it relevant, be it in Spain where Madrid leads but Northern regions are consistently 3-5x more affected than Southern ones, be it the unexpected prominence of Nordic countries here, be it in the Italian and French outbreaks, or the Iranian outbreak, or Washington state running ahead of California, or the prominence of the Hokkaido outbreak in Japan.
I feel very healthy. I've even got a tan. I'm fully provisioned including 15 bog rolls - I alway keep a buffer of 9. I have a balcony where I can sit in the sun watching the world go by. Lots of news to follow, TV to watch, bets to make, comments on here. Family, friends and helpful neighbours nearby. So far, so good. But I only got home at 2:45am today so early days.
I'm left with the thought there seem to be a lot of asymptomatic people out there so perhaps this won't last. I presume once you've had it you can't have it again (I may be wrong about that) while asymptomatic people will just carry the virus without the symptoms.
I think the reports of reinfection were probably down to false negative tests, however there are two different strains already and I don't think anybody knows if you have had one if you can contract the other.
You would hope that because you have had something very very similar that even if you could contract it the effects would be further minimized, in the way flu goes round each year and we all have an inbuilt tolerance to it so must feel crap for a day or two and thats about it.
Arrived back from Northern Italy in the early hours to find my flat stocked with flowers and food by my daughters in anticipation of my self isolation for 14 days.
Fantastic skiing for two days but empty slopes and hotels. Didn't visit bars or use gondalas. Alone on chair lifts. Sometimes couldn't see another person on the slopes.
Inghams did a great job getting us home (the Austrians prevented us getting to Innsbruck). Flew out of Verona on a rescue flight.
Glad you made it back, and hopefully healthy.
There has been some talk about how hard it is mentally to self isolate for 14 days. Be fascinating to have your personal experience on here as you go through the days.
I feel very healthy. I've even got a tan. I'm fully provisioned including 15 bog rolls - I alway keep a buffer of 9...
Nations by Coronavirus infection rate of over 1 per 100k population:
>20 per 100k: Iceland >10 per 100k: Italy, SK >5 per 100k: China, Iran, Switzerland, Norway, Denmark, Bahrain >2 per 100k: France, Spain, Netherlands, Sweden, Belgium, Austria, Singapore >1 per 100k: Germany, Hong Kong, Kuwait, Slovenia, Macau, Malta 1 per 100k bar excludes UK, most SE Asia, Japan at present
The Iceland case is like a test cricketer who plays 4 innings scoring 80 runs and not out 3 times. His average is 80 runs, second only to Donald Bradman. There is a reason why tables of records have a cut off for small denominators. The total population of Iceland ist simply too low to make it comparable with e.g. Switzerland.
Tbf, I cut off San Marino. Iceland feeds into a pattern of Nordic countries being quite high up this list, and its 80 cases are somewhat more noteworthy in world terms than a cricketer with 80 aggregate runs.
With a squint of my eye there does seem to be something of a north-south dynamic in many places where you might think it relevant, be it in Spain where Madrid leads but Northern regions are consistently 3-5x more affected than Southern ones, be it the unexpected prominence of Nordic countries here, be it in the Italian and French outbreaks, or the Iranian outbreak, or Washington state running ahead of California, or the prominence of the Hokkaido outbreak in Japan.
It would be good to think warm weather, which feels like it's coming, will step in to the save the day for us, even though that may be a bit premature.
Nations by reported Coronavirus infection rate of over 1 per 100k population:
>20 per 100k: Iceland >10 per 100k: Italy, SK >5 per 100k: China, Iran, Switzerland, Norway, Denmark, Bahrain >2 per 100k: France, Spain, Netherlands, Sweden, Belgium, Austria, Singapore >1 per 100k: Germany, Hong Kong, Kuwait, Slovenia, Macau, Malta 1 per 100k bar excludes UK, USA most SE Asia, Japan at present
The mortality rate in NW Europe is currently about 0.5.
It also remains unclear how the Labour Party got hold of the leaked documents. At the time, they did not reveal their source, and they did not respond to BBC Trending's recent requests for comment.
At the time of the leak, Mr Corbyn described suggestions that Labour might have benefited from a Russian operation as "nonsense".
Nations by Coronavirus infection rate of over 1 per 100k population:
>20 per 100k: Iceland >10 per 100k: Italy, SK >5 per 100k: China, Iran, Switzerland, Norway, Denmark, Bahrain >2 per 100k: France, Spain, Netherlands, Sweden, Belgium, Austria, Singapore >1 per 100k: Germany, Hong Kong, Kuwait, Slovenia, Macau, Malta 1 per 100k bar excludes UK, most SE Asia, Japan at present
The Iceland case is like a test cricketer who plays 4 innings scoring 80 runs and not out 3 times. His average is 80 runs, second only to Donald Bradman. There is a reason why tables of records have a cut off for small denominators. The total population of Iceland ist simply too low to make it comparable with e.g. Switzerland.
Tbf, I cut off San Marino. Iceland feeds into a pattern of Nordic countries being quite high up this list, and its 80 cases are somewhat more noteworthy in world terms than a cricketer with 80 aggregate runs.
With a squint of my eye there does seem to be something of a north-south dynamic in many places where you might think it relevant, be it in Spain where Madrid leads but Northern regions are consistently 3-5x more affected than Southern ones, be it the unexpected prominence of Nordic countries here, be it in the Italian and French outbreaks, or the Iranian outbreak, or Washington state running ahead of California, or the prominence of the Hokkaido outbreak in Japan.
It would be good to think warm weather, which feels like it's coming, will step in to the save the day for us, even though that may be a bit premature.
I must admit to hoping the temperature is a key issue. Today’s high on the coast 24 but 14 in Madrid. Does anyone know what warm is to the virus?
Just about anybody but Trump would suit most people right now.
Biden is an experienced Senator and former Vice-President. Even if he's not as sharp as he was he will have the sense to be surrounded by experienced advisers. He won't believe that he knows better than anyone else as Trump does.
Biden would be a very significant upgrade in the current crisis, instead we've got an egotistical moron.
I feel very healthy. I've even got a tan. I'm fully provisioned including 15 bog rolls - I alway keep a buffer of 9. I have a balcony where I can sit in the sun watching the world go by. Lots of news to follow, TV to watch, bets to make, comments on here. Family, friends and helpful neighbours nearby. So far, so good. But I only got home at 2:45am today so early days.
I think the reports of reinfection were probably down to false negative tests, however there are two different strains already and I don't think anybody knows if you have had one if you can contract the other.
You would hope that because you have had something very very similar that even if you could contract it the effects would be further minimized, in the way flu goes round each year and we all have an inbuilt tolerance to it so must feel crap for a day or two and thats about it.
Indeed and I'm beginning to wonder if we are mistaking one term for two different things.
The H1N1 virus was the cause of the 1918 Spanish flu and was so deadly because it was a new strain incorporating avian elements whereas the 2009 strain had elements from pigs. This is when it becomes really dangerous - when you have a new strain against which the normal immunity is ineffective and the whole population is therefore at risk.
Each year's flu is basically a repeat of the existing strain so there is a degree of immunity in the population but those with pre-existing health problems are always at heightened risk.
I'm not sure about this virus - it seems to originate from bats or pangolins which would make it a new strain but I would have expected a much wider and faster spread among populations.
As always, I am terrified by the depth of my ignorance.
Perhaps this will be the moment Westminster finally modernises and allows remote /electronic voting
"The Corona positives to the right 356..."
Guten Morgen, Mr Doof! You were complaining about a lack of publicity. Switch on your telly. Bundespressekonferenz broadcast live on Phoenix, RTL, NTV, WELT TV with Merkel, Spahn and the RKI chair.
LIeber Herr von Hamburg, I don't have a telly, but I will certainly look up the press conference later, after I have bought some hamsters
To be fair though I did comment on both Karl Lauterbach's interview yesterday and Spahn's interview today on DLF. There has been a definite step up in coverage as this week has progressed, last week it appeared like there was a deliberate approach from the media to report Corona related stories separately (economic/health/travel etc) rather than link them together, presumably to avoud the accusation of scaremongering. I hope that in the long term, the Federal Government is able to wrest control in a health crisis which has implications for the the whole country. Having to hope that all of the 16 states implememt the national advice is far from ideal.
Arrived back from Northern Italy in the early hours to find my flat stocked with flowers and food by my daughters in anticipation of my self isolation for 14 days.
Fantastic skiing for two days but empty slopes and hotels. Didn't visit bars or use gondalas. Alone on chair lifts. Sometimes couldn't see another person on the slopes.
Inghams did a great job getting us home (the Austrians prevented us getting to Innsbruck). Flew out of Verona on a rescue flight.
Glad you made it back, and hopefully healthy.
There has been some talk about how hard it is mentally to self isolate for 14 days. Be fascinating to have your personal experience on here as you go through the days.
Hard to see why it would be difficult to spend 14 days at home if you have food and drink, can read, TV , etc. Should be a dawdle.
First, I wish Nadine Dorries and indeed all those suffering from coronavirus a swift and full recovery.
I'm left with the thought there seem to be a lot of asymptomatic people out there so perhaps this won't last. I presume once you've had it you can't have it again (I may be wrong about that) while asymptomatic people will just carry the virus without the symptoms.
If the proportion of asymptomatic people is large it will be serious (and for some, regrettably, a lot more than serious) but for many it will be nothing.
One of the reasons the Spanish Flu did so much damage it was a new variant to which no one was immune or asymptomatic. Everyone was vulnerable and the death toll was enormous.
On potholes and road repairs, I'm afraid it was the unbalanced austerity of the Coalition that has led to the significant fall in spending on highway maintenance. By ring-fencing the NHS and Education, the axe fell disproportionately elsewhere and spending on roads has fallen by about a half in real terms since 2010.
Our roads are a disgrace and there is a point about providing reliable transport infrastructure so it is about planes, trains and automobiles (and ships and barges and buses and ferries and trams and the rest).
The Diamond Princess may give a rough indication of the proportion of people who are immune or asymptomatic. Of the 3,700 passengers on board, 696 became infected, 410 of whom were (so far!) asymptomatic. Assuming that all the people on board were exposed to the virus and that it is a representative sample of the population (both very shaky assumptions, I know), this would indicate that 81% of people are immune and 11% asymptomatic.
Arrived back from Northern Italy in the early hours to find my flat stocked with flowers and food by my daughters in anticipation of my self isolation for 14 days.
Fantastic skiing for two days but empty slopes and hotels. Didn't visit bars or use gondalas. Alone on chair lifts. Sometimes couldn't see another person on the slopes.
Inghams did a great job getting us home (the Austrians prevented us getting to Innsbruck). Flew out of Verona on a rescue flight.
Glad you made it back, and hopefully healthy.
There has been some talk about how hard it is mentally to self isolate for 14 days. Be fascinating to have your personal experience on here as you go through the days.
Hard to see why it would be difficult to spend 14 days at home if you have food and drink, can read, TV , etc. Should be a dawdle.
I had to do that after my back operation, except for very brief prescribed walks. I got through a lot of box sets.
Arrived back from Northern Italy in the early hours to find my flat stocked with flowers and food by my daughters in anticipation of my self isolation for 14 days.
Fantastic skiing for two days but empty slopes and hotels. Didn't visit bars or use gondalas. Alone on chair lifts. Sometimes couldn't see another person on the slopes.
Inghams did a great job getting us home (the Austrians prevented us getting to Innsbruck). Flew out of Verona on a rescue flight.
Glad you made it back, and hopefully healthy.
There has been some talk about how hard it is mentally to self isolate for 14 days. Be fascinating to have your personal experience on here as you go through the days.
I feel very healthy. I've even got a tan. I'm fully provisioned including 15 bog rolls - I alway keep a buffer of 9...
First, I wish Nadine Dorries and indeed all those suffering from coronavirus a swift and full recovery.
I'm left with the thought there seem to be a lot of asymptomatic people out there so perhaps this won't last. I presume once you've had it you can't have it again (I may be wrong about that) while asymptomatic people will just carry the virus without the symptoms.
If the proportion of asymptomatic people is large it will be serious (and for some, regrettably, a lot more than serious) but for many it will be nothing.
One of the reasons the Spanish Flu did so much damage it was a new variant to which no one was immune or asymptomatic. Everyone was vulnerable and the death toll was enormous.
On potholes and road repairs, I'm afraid it was the unbalanced austerity of the Coalition that has led to the significant fall in spending on highway maintenance. By ring-fencing the NHS and Education, the axe fell disproportionately elsewhere and spending on roads has fallen by about a half in real terms since 2010.
Our roads are a disgrace and there is a point about providing reliable transport infrastructure so it is about planes, trains and automobiles (and ships and barges and buses and ferries and trams and the rest).
The Diamond Princess may give a rough indication of the proportion of people who are immune or asymptomatic. Of the 3,700 passengers on board, 696 became infected, 410 of whom were (so far!) asymptomatic. Assuming that all the people on board were exposed to the virus and that it is a representative sample of the population (both very shaky assumptions, I know), this would indicate that 81% of people are immune and 11% asymptomatic.
I heard the British couple who are still in a Japanese hospital (but recovering well), who do daily YouTube videos say that when it first broke out there were told it was fine you can still carry on as normal and so everybody continued to go to the restaurants etc for a good couple of days afterwards.
Now, it was probably already exposed everybody it could, but if it hadn't, they certainly made sure.
There seems little point in providing money for research into epidemiology, public health and transmission of infectious diseases.
There are untrained experts on twitter that provide their insights & knowledge for free.
"There seems little point in providing money for research into epidemiology, public health and transmission of infectious diseases."
Well, Trump certainly agrees with that.
The graph that Rory Stewart has tweeted showing a neat "40 percent difference" in red is ludicrous. Any serious modeller would have confidence limits, for a start.
The graph was created by someone called Tomas Pueyo, who seems to be a journalist and author, but he knows enough to create a simple model. We might as well ask SeanT & Henrietta to make the graph and get Rory to tweet it.
Rory is someone who is coming out of this badly. My opinion of him has diminished very substantially. Who would have thought he would handle this worse than Boris?
I think Boris realises how very damaging it would be to do something against the advice of his scientific and medical advisors.
And epidemiology is a mature science on which a lot of research has been done for decades, and sophisticated modelling techniques are possible. So, Boris is right to listen to his experts (who are not party political).
Like yourself, I quite liked Rory until a couple of days ago, almost to the point of wondering if Shaun Bailey should stand aside and give him a free run at Sadiq.
Not now, he's quickly turned into yet another of the amateur internet epidemiologists who think - without evidence - that their opinion is more important that those of the Chief Medical Officer and Chief Scientist.
Politicians and journalists really need to shut up and listen to the genuine experts. As someone suggested here yesterday, the media should be sending their science or health correspondents to the government briefings, rather than the political correspondents.
Sorry, but this is balls. You might just as well say we shouldn't comment on government economic policy.
We all have broadly the same access to economic theories and data, there is tons of it out there, various policies have been tried in many countries over many different situations. People outside the govt can have close to as much knowledge as the Treasury. It is also not time critical.
On Covid 19 there is a very limited amount of data and knowledge, which changes on a daily basis, and is not widely known. No single expert from any field can have good context of the impacts to other fields.
The two scenarios are very different. As long as the govt response is science led, given access to all available resources, other politicians and media should be very reluctant to criticise.
Actually much of the science on Covid is being posted online as it develops.
As an example, I noted the German paper reporting patients presenting with cold symptoms who were shedding virus, and questioned why government wasn't advising all those with URTIs to self isolate. (Which action might have prevented Nadine infecting half the cabinet...)
Why not just test him anyway. You know, given he is kinda of an important person and will be interacting with all the egg-heads that are crucial to this.
Why not just test him anyway. You know, given he is kinda of an important person and will be interacting with all the egg-heads that are crucial to this.
To a certain extent he probably really doesn't want to know, like Trump.
Why not just test him anyway. You know, given he is kinda of an important person and will be interacting with all the egg-heads that are crucial to this.
They probably have, but thought we might all panic ?
Perhaps this will be the moment Westminster finally modernises and allows remote /electronic voting
"The Corona positives to the right 356..."
Guten Morgen, Mr Doof! You were complaining about a lack of publicity. Switch on your telly. Bundespressekonferenz broadcast live on Phoenix, RTL, NTV, WELT TV with Merkel, Spahn and the RKI chair.
LIeber Herr von Hamburg, I don't have a telly, but I will certainly look up the press conference later, after I have bought some hamsters
To be fair though I did comment on both Karl Lauterbach's interview yesterday and Spahn's interview today on DLF. There has been a definite step up in coverage as this week has progressed, last week it appeared like there was a deliberate approach from the media to report Corona related stories separately (economic/health/travel etc) rather than link them together, presumably to avoud the accusation of scaremongering. I hope that in the long term, the Federal Government is able to wrest control in a health crisis which has implications for the the whole country. Having to hope that all of the 16 states implememt the national advice is far from ideal.
Stay healthy!
Thank you. As you are living in Germany, you will be aware that the federal system is constantly under review and sometimes changed. I fully agree that there is a good argument to be made that for purposes of disease control (and several other things) a shift of competences to the national level makes sense.
Why not just test him anyway. You know, given he is kinda of an important person and will be interacting with all the egg-heads that are crucial to this.
It would make Boris look foolish - a panicked bumbler who went against his own advice. They want to project a sombre, Churchillian presence here.
Arrived back from Northern Italy in the early hours to find my flat stocked with flowers and food by my daughters in anticipation of my self isolation for 14 days.
Fantastic skiing for two days but empty slopes and hotels. Didn't visit bars or use gondalas. Alone on chair lifts. Sometimes couldn't see another person on the slopes.
Inghams did a great job getting us home (the Austrians prevented us getting to Innsbruck). Flew out of Verona on a rescue flight.
Glad you made it back, and hopefully healthy.
There has been some talk about how hard it is mentally to self isolate for 14 days. Be fascinating to have your personal experience on here as you go through the days.
Hard to see why it would be difficult to spend 14 days at home if you have food and drink, can read, TV , etc. Should be a dawdle.
I had to do that after my back operation, except for very brief prescribed walks. I got through a lot of box sets.
If you are fit you can always decorate.
I am doing it now except odd foray to shops or hospital appointments given my wife's condition and will be for more than two weeks for sure.
Why not just test him anyway. You know, given he is kinda of an important person and will be interacting with all the egg-heads that are crucial to this.
They probably have, but thought we might all panic ?
I kinda of suspect VVIP are getting regularly tested.
Comments
>20 per 100k: Iceland
>10 per 100k: Italy, SK
>5 per 100k: China, Iran, Switzerland, Norway, Denmark, Bahrain
>2 per 100k: France, Spain, Netherlands, Sweden, Belgium, Austria, Singapore
>1 per 100k: Germany, Hong Kong, Kuwait, Slovenia, Macau, Malta
1 per 100k bar excludes UK, USA most SE Asia, Japan at present
I didn't realize that the idiots running these wet markets, it isn't just animals from that area, they literally imported and cage together animals from every continent.
For a while the British Government (both Labour and Conservative) was making great strides in improving the science behind their decisions, but it seems to me that they have been going backwards in the last few years
https://sports.ladbrokes.com/event/politics/uk/uk-politics/2020-budget/230013741/all-markets
I like Yorkshire Tea at 5/1
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There has been some talk about how hard it is mentally to self isolate for 14 days. Be fascinating to have your personal experience on here as you go through the days.
Huge, if true....
https://twitter.com/IanMurrayMP/status/1237686044847464448
A few years ago I did a 28 day expedition in Nepal, miles from anywhere, towards the end the most valuable commodity was toilet paper. Nepalese often call toilet paper "The European prayer flag"
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/geographical-distribution-2019-ncov-cases
We may soon be in the position of authorities resolutely refusing to close Parliament, but no MPs attending...
Here we go....
https://twitter.com/jakpost/status/1237688681219141638?s=20
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8099279/Nadine-Dorries-reveals-one-parliamentary-staff-coronavirus.html
You were complaining about a lack of publicity. Switch on your telly. Bundespressekonferenz broadcast live on Phoenix, RTL, NTV, WELT TV with Merkel, Spahn and the RKI chair.
As an example, I noted the German paper reporting patients presenting with cold symptoms who were shedding virus, and questioned why government wasn't advising all those with URTIs to self isolate.
(Which action might have prevented Nadine infecting half the cabinet...)
First, I wish Nadine Dorries and indeed all those suffering from coronavirus a swift and full recovery.
I'm left with the thought there seem to be a lot of asymptomatic people out there so perhaps this won't last. I presume once you've had it you can't have it again (I may be wrong about that) while asymptomatic people will just carry the virus without the symptoms.
If the proportion of asymptomatic people is large it will be serious (and for some, regrettably, a lot more than serious) but for many it will be nothing.
One of the reasons the Spanish Flu did so much damage it was a new variant to which no one was immune or asymptomatic. Everyone was vulnerable and the death toll was enormous.
On potholes and road repairs, I'm afraid it was the unbalanced austerity of the Coalition that has led to the significant fall in spending on highway maintenance. By ring-fencing the NHS and Education, the axe fell disproportionately elsewhere and spending on roads has fallen by about a half in real terms since 2010.
Our roads are a disgrace and there is a point about providing reliable transport infrastructure so it is about planes, trains and automobiles (and ships and barges and buses and ferries and trams and the rest).
With a squint of my eye there does seem to be something of a north-south dynamic in many places where you might think it relevant, be it in Spain where Madrid leads but Northern regions are consistently 3-5x more affected than Southern ones, be it the unexpected prominence of Nordic countries here, be it in the Italian and French outbreaks, or the Iranian outbreak, or Washington state running ahead of California, or the prominence of the Hokkaido outbreak in Japan.
You would hope that because you have had something very very similar that even if you could contract it the effects would be further minimized, in the way flu goes round each year and we all have an inbuilt tolerance to it so must feel crap for a day or two and thats about it.
& welcome back !
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-trending-51776404
Russian interference with GE story reappears.
10k tests day with 24hr turn around
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8099471/NHS-test-10-000-patients-killer-coronavirus-day.html
At the time of the leak, Mr Corbyn described suggestions that Labour might have benefited from a Russian operation as "nonsense".
"Keep America Great" it says on it.
Unbelievable.
The H1N1 virus was the cause of the 1918 Spanish flu and was so deadly because it was a new strain incorporating avian elements whereas the 2009 strain had elements from pigs. This is when it becomes really dangerous - when you have a new strain against which the normal immunity is ineffective and the whole population is therefore at risk.
Each year's flu is basically a repeat of the existing strain so there is a degree of immunity in the population but those with pre-existing health problems are always at heightened risk.
I'm not sure about this virus - it seems to originate from bats or pangolins which would make it a new strain but I would have expected a much wider and faster spread among populations.
As always, I am terrified by the depth of my ignorance.
I don't have a telly, but I will certainly look up the press conference later, after I have bought some hamsters
To be fair though I did comment on both Karl Lauterbach's interview yesterday and Spahn's interview today on DLF. There has been a definite step up in coverage as this week has progressed, last week it appeared like there was a deliberate approach from the media to report Corona related stories separately (economic/health/travel etc) rather than link them together, presumably to avoud the accusation of scaremongering. I hope that in the long term, the Federal Government is able to wrest control in a health crisis which has implications for the the whole country. Having to hope that all of the 16 states implememt the national advice is far from ideal.
Stay healthy!
If you are fit you can always decorate.
Remains to be seen if this is the case.
Now, it was probably already exposed everybody it could, but if it hadn't, they certainly made sure.
https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/what-taiwan-can-teach-world-fighting-coronavirus-n1153826
“We think only when information is transparent, and people have sufficient medical knowledge, will their fear be reduced,” Kolas, the government spokeswoman, said....
Kantar:
To what extent do you [think] the public will follow the government guidance on Coronavirus?
Almost Everyone: 8
Most will: 49
Most Won't: 28
Almost Nobody: 4
Not Sure: 11
Older demographics more trusting of fellow citizens:
Net Will:
65+: +45
18-24: +15
Understandable, if not useful.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8099279/Nadine-Dorries-reveals-one-parliamentary-staff-coronavirus.html
And she had her arms round Pritti....
I am now laid up and fully green unless black swan, bat shit crazy happens.
Stay healthy!