Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Options

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Biden moves to 93% chance on Betfair after walloping Bernie in

1235711

Comments

  • Options
    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,458
    FF43 said:

    Selebian said:


    As a professional epidemiologist (usual disclaimer, not in infectious disease), I'm happy to admit I don't know how this is going to play out. Worst case scenarios are, by definition, unlikely, but government is correct to plan around those - we expect them to cope and have a plan whatever happens. The government should be (and all indications are that they are) taking this very seriously, but with a measured response weighing up the pros and cons.

    Chatting yesterday to a colleague who is more in this field (heavily involved in WTO response to Ebola and was on the ground in that outbreak) he pointed out that, while he also knows nothing much from the public figures, those involved in the response will have more data. No crystal ball, but details on all the cases, how they got infected (if known) and the likely vectors of infection. They are in a better position to judge the correct responses at the correct time than all the armchair epidemiologists (qualified or not) looking at trend lines on the tracking websites.

    I agree with this and also think public policy has to be allowed to work. The comment I would make is that science (hopefully) informs public policy, but doesn't decide it. That's a politician's job. While epidemiologists presumably would have a say on the potential effectiveness of a policy measure in terms of controlling the epidemic, they won't be making the trade-off of whether a measure with potential control benefits is worth the social or economic cost. Rightly that is Johnson's job. It's hard for the rest of us to comment on trade-off now because unlike Johnson we don't have half of the cost/benefit picture. In general it appears Johnson is reluctant to approve intrusive (but maybe effective?) measures.

    The other and maybe more important aspect of policy effectiveness is implementation. The (don't forget to use soap!) unwashed masses can definitely have an opinion on that. Policy as of now seems to (1) do a lot of washing of hands; (2) contact tracing of those with active COVID19 cases; (3) self-isolation in certain circumstances. Fine, that's the policy. That's what it is. Now, how well is that policy being promulgated, monitored and if necessary enforced? Not particularly well, from what I can see, bearing in mind we have reference countries in Asia that look to be implementing public policy with more rigour. Implementation is another responsibility of government, not scientists.
    Yes, the scientists will be presenting estimates (with uncertainties, probably quite large) on the effects of different things at different points. Presumably there's a fair bit of economic (not just health economics) input too. Clearly the best way to stop spread is complete, indefinite lockdown, but that also trashes the economy (and trashing the economy will kill people too, possibly many more). Ultimately it's the politicians' decision and responsibility, but I wouldn't be surprised if they're asking the scientists what they would do. If there's a clear scientific answer, they'll likely give it. If there's a real trade-off/uncertainty then it's the politicians' call.

    To take home working as an example, recommending it looks low cost, but an economic analysis might conclude that it's going to gut city-centre economies and transport-supporting businesses, even over a few weeks. So the epidemiologists can run some numbers (with high uncertainty) on what home working might do to cases at present and the economists look at how many businesses might go under, how many people made redundant etc. You can convert from that to a net effect on government revenue and think about how many other health interventions might have to be cut. It might give a clear cut answer where recommending or not recommending action is a no-brainer (as I suspect may be the case with our current levels of cases) or it may be a very difficult judgement call for a politician.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,329
    Chameleon said:

    Andrew said:


    Is the feeling based on anything?

    The only real positive is that the growth in new cases is no longer explosively increasing, and maybe, just maybe, topping out sometime soonish. Of course, that still means adding almost 5k new cases a day (plus many more undetected).

    Question is how we function longer term though - here's hoping summer dampens it down.
    As much as I'd like to see some rounding off:

    https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

    Up until yesterday we'd only touched 4k 4 times (once in Feb, 6th, 7th, 8th March). Yesterday was over 5k with only partial Italian data. We're beyond 2.5k for today already.
    And once again the results are very dependent upon the level of available testing. At the weekends it seems to be less (not acceptable surely) which gives the indication of a pause. Its meaningless. We need to isolate those known to be at risk, investigating where they might be vigorously and reducing the risk of unknown carriers infecting us. So much to do.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,770

    SNP MPs hate being called the "Scottish Nationalist Party" don't they? :grin:

    If they were smart they'd let it go.....but they won't so, Johnson keeps using it....
  • Options
    Ave_it said:

    DavidL said:

    Ian Blackford is making a valid point but he could have done with not wasting a question on a rather silly gotcha.

    Agreed
    Blackford always focussed on playing political games rather than showing true leadership

    Unfit to be in the Commons as is most of his SNP comrades

    I have no liking of Blackford but it was a fair question
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125

    Oh labour.

    How on earth can you even watch Corbyn's wretched performance

    Thank god he isn't in charge...just think about that for a moment, not just him but all the other total morons in the shadow cabinet and their loving of a good conspiracy theory to wish away certain uncomfortable truths.

    They would probably put it out to a members vote what course of action we should take spread out over 3 months.
    Meanwhile, the borders are open to all....
  • Options
    contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    Just wondering during the war did we have politicians wasting their time wibbling over who was the more racist, more of a transphobe, more of a misogynist?

    At a guess, I'd say it was probably the nazis?
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,935
    Iceland will be interesting to watch for mortality. They're all genetically similiar there.
  • Options
    Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,981
    DavidL said:

    Ave_it said:

    LOL

    Even by his usual standards Corbyn is reaching for the gutter today. He is vermin.

    Good job there is a credible replacement:
    - Corbyn lite albeit with nice hair
    - Someone obsessed with trans issues which interest 0.00001% of the population
    - a public school pro EU surrender merchant

    Is CON on 50% in the latest poll? :lol:

    I read that as trains which made fractionally more sense. Trans...jeez.
    Trans issues may affect 0.00001% of the population in a physical way (it is nearer 0.01% and perhaps as much as 1%)*, but it seems to have a much larger percentage of posters on here obsessing about it. As for the gutter press.....

    * (about 5,000ish GenderCertificates have been issued for those who, presumably have gone all the way. If you count cross-dressing as a trans issue then it is estimated as 5% of the male population, possibly as high as 10%)
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Probably not the best day to watch Red Dwarf’s episode Quarantine.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,303
    I am taking a small buy position on the FTSE on the basis that Rishi must have a pleasant surprise or two up his sleeve that the markets might like, and balancing my risk by taking a sell position of equivalent weight on the Dow.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    SNP MPs hate being called the "Scottish Nationalist Party" don't they? :grin:

    If they were smart they'd let it go.....but they won't so, Johnson keeps using it....
    Indeed its really a pathetic thing to moan about. If every time an opposition MP said "Tory" the PM freaked out then every opposition MP would say it at every opportunity.
  • Options
    contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    HYUFD said:
    HOw about the number of people who are a bit smug about having an empire behind closed doors, but aren't about to admit that to a smart8rse researcher like you?
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,216

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    philiph said:

    Barnesian said:

    Arrived back from Northern Italy in the early hours to find my flat stocked with flowers and food by my daughters in anticipation of my self isolation for 14 days.

    Fantastic skiing for two days but empty slopes and hotels. Didn't visit bars or use gondalas. Alone on chair lifts. Sometimes couldn't see another person on the slopes.


    Inghams did a great job getting us home (the Austrians prevented us getting to Innsbruck). Flew out of Verona on a rescue flight.

    Glad you made it back, and hopefully healthy.

    There has been some talk about how hard it is mentally to self isolate for 14 days. Be fascinating to have your personal experience on here as you go through the days.
    I feel very healthy. I've even got a tan. I'm fully provisioned including 15 bog rolls - I alway keep a buffer of 9. I have a balcony where I can sit in the sun watching the world go by. Lots of news to follow, TV to watch, bets to make, comments on here. Family, friends and helpful neighbours nearby. So far, so good. But I only got home at 2:45am today so early days. :smiley:
    Good to see you safely home Barnesian. Hope we can help to keep you entertained for the next two weeks.
    Thank you. Coming on here is like going to the pub - Cheers.
    Without the booze...
    or the busty barmaid....
    Hello. My daughter, running her own restaurant/pub, would like to have a word.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,504
    edited March 2020
    It’s funny, you see the language used by critics of trans rights and it is eerily similar to that which was used by critics of gay rights a few decades ago.

    Won’t someone please think of the children.
  • Options
    Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    LOL LAB MPs pursuing their divisive race and gender agendas - BAU in Question Time!
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    IanB2 said:

    I am taking a small buy position on the FTSE on the basis that Rishi must have a pleasant surprise or two up his sleeve that the markets might like, and balancing my risk by taking a sell position of equivalent weight on the Dow.

    You hedge trader you! I hope you realise as a hedge trader you're the public enemy of the left now ;)
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,028
    geoffw said:

    Pete Wishart - what a great advertisement for the SNP!
    Gets what he deserved from Johnson.

    He is such a twat
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    philiph said:

    Barnesian said:

    Arrived back from Northern Italy in the early hours to find my flat stocked with flowers and food by my daughters in anticipation of my self isolation for 14 days.

    Fantastic skiing for two days but empty slopes and hotels. Didn't visit bars or use gondalas. Alone on chair lifts. Sometimes couldn't see another person on the slopes.


    Inghams did a great job getting us home (the Austrians prevented us getting to Innsbruck). Flew out of Verona on a rescue flight.

    Glad you made it back, and hopefully healthy.

    There has been some talk about how hard it is mentally to self isolate for 14 days. Be fascinating to have your personal experience on here as you go through the days.
    I feel very healthy. I've even got a tan. I'm fully provisioned including 15 bog rolls - I alway keep a buffer of 9. I have a balcony where I can sit in the sun watching the world go by. Lots of news to follow, TV to watch, bets to make, comments on here. Family, friends and helpful neighbours nearby. So far, so good. But I only got home at 2:45am today so early days. :smiley:
    Good to see you safely home Barnesian. Hope we can help to keep you entertained for the next two weeks.
    Thank you. Coming on here is like going to the pub - Cheers.
    Without the booze...
    or the busty barmaid....
    In this woke pc times are we allowed to say such things? We might be facing a world pandemic of a killer disease, but it is still very important we remain totally woke, sign up to the trans-right pledge card and definitely don't say men can't compete in womens athletic events.
    Would it be woke to say we could supply a busty barman, with a fine set of moobs....?
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,028

    SNP MPs hate being called the "Scottish Nationalist Party" don't they? :grin:

    If they were smart they'd let it go.....but they won't so, Johnson keeps using it....
    Shows how stupid and juvenile Boris is, perhaps he should concentrate on his day job rather than trying to be a comedienne
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    It’s funny, you see the language used by critics of trans rights and it is eerily similar to that which was used by critics of gay rights a few decades ago.

    Won’t someone please think of the children.

    Looks completely different to me, depending upon what you mean by "trans rights"?

    If you mean people like women's rights activists including some notable names on this site the arguments look nothing like "please think of the children"
  • Options
    Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    LOL Davey

    Still Layla will be leader soon - that will beat the opposition! :lol:

  • Options
    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,263
    edited March 2020



    It does definitely smells like shenanigans, doesn't it? I made the initial application quite a while back, so why did this requirement only mysteriously surface days before the election?

    I'm now holding off voting waiting to see if any of the candidates will promise to fire everybody.

    I've been saying this for ages - why on earth would a cult which has taken control of all the levers of power in the party voluntarily give it up? The cult has rigged a swathe of candidate "selections" - why would the leadership be any different?

    Yes we have seen CLPs nominate non-cult candidates. But I know that the vast majority of party members haven't attended those. And a few polls suggesting the Tory Starmer will win - they have rubbished and attacked every poll and pollster. So its a simple narrative that the "silent majority" want to continue the blessed work of the twice elected leader.

    So of course RLB will be declared the winner. I have to assume that they will offer compromise with the deputy leader by declaring the Tory Rayner to be the winner whilst the NEC simultaneously takes away all of the deputy's powers and holds them directly instead.
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,749
    DavidL said:

    Ian Blackford is making a valid point but he could have done with not wasting a question on a rather silly gotcha.

    It's a setup to pointing out that statutory sickpay in Ireland is more than twice that of the UK. It's not really a question. Johnson didn't have a good (or relevant) response to that point.
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,190

    It’s funny, you see the language used by critics of trans rights and it is eerily similar to that which was used by critics of gay rights a few decades ago.

    Won’t someone please think of the children.

    Careful, it was concerns over gay rights that led to some people supporting rights for paedos.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,303

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    philiph said:

    Barnesian said:

    Arrived back from Northern Italy in the early hours to find my flat stocked with flowers and food by my daughters in anticipation of my self isolation for 14 days.

    Fantastic skiing for two days but empty slopes and hotels. Didn't visit bars or use gondalas. Alone on chair lifts. Sometimes couldn't see another person on the slopes.


    Inghams did a great job getting us home (the Austrians prevented us getting to Innsbruck). Flew out of Verona on a rescue flight.

    Glad you made it back, and hopefully healthy.

    There has been some talk about how hard it is mentally to self isolate for 14 days. Be fascinating to have your personal experience on here as you go through the days.
    I feel very healthy. I've even got a tan. I'm fully provisioned including 15 bog rolls - I alway keep a buffer of 9. I have a balcony where I can sit in the sun watching the world go by. Lots of news to follow, TV to watch, bets to make, comments on here. Family, friends and helpful neighbours nearby. So far, so good. But I only got home at 2:45am today so early days. :smiley:
    Good to see you safely home Barnesian. Hope we can help to keep you entertained for the next two weeks.
    Thank you. Coming on here is like going to the pub - Cheers.
    Without the booze...
    BYOB
  • Options
    MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Just got my car filled up with petrol as you should always do on budget day mornings. Given the price has been moving downward this seems an obvious choice for an increase.
  • Options
    Real class from the speaker

    What an improvement
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,329
    Right. Expect the most left wing one nation budget that a Tory Chancellor has given since the 70's.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,039
    Ave_it said:

    LOL Davey

    Still Layla will be leader soon - that will beat the opposition! :lol:

    She won't

    https://www.libdemvoice.org/yougov-poll-on-lib-dem-leadership-ed-davey-is-a-country-mile-ahead-with-caveats-galore-63298.html
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,770

    Real class from the speaker

    What an improvement

    "All yours Eleanor - good luck!"

    Such a refreshing change!
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,329
    Like his style and tone.
  • Options
    contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    Just got my car filled up with petrol as you should always do on budget day mornings. Given the price has been moving downward this seems an obvious choice for an increase.

    A group called Fairfuel did a poll that showed fuel tax increases are about as popular as amnesties for paedophiles.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,268
    Chancellor up and speaking.

    Starts with the virus.
  • Options

    It’s funny, you see the language used by critics of trans rights and it is eerily similar to that which was used by critics of gay rights a few decades ago.

    Won’t someone please think of the children.

    Looks completely different to me, depending upon what you mean by "trans rights"?

    If you mean people like women's rights activists including some notable names on this site the arguments look nothing like "please think of the children"
    Introducing kids to drag queens attracted a few adverse comments did it not?
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,185

    SNP MPs hate being called the "Scottish Nationalist Party" don't they? :grin:

    I notice you lot aren't too keen on being called nationalists either, proud patriots (of whichever country it happens to be today) that you are.
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    It’s funny, you see the language used by critics of trans rights and it is eerily similar to that which was used by critics of gay rights a few decades ago.

    Won’t someone please think of the children.

    Looks completely different to me, depending upon what you mean by "trans rights"?

    If you mean people like women's rights activists including some notable names on this site the arguments look nothing like "please think of the children"
    The "trans people in women's changing rooms" chat is identical to "why Lesbians shouldn't be allowed in women's changing rooms" chat back in the day.

    It's word for word.
  • Options
    Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411

    It’s funny, you see the language used by critics of trans rights and it is eerily similar to that which was used by critics of gay rights a few decades ago.

    Won’t someone please think of the children.

    Looks completely different to me, depending upon what you mean by "trans rights"?

    If you mean people like women's rights activists including some notable names on this site the arguments look nothing like "please think of the children"
    Introducing kids to drag queens attracted a few adverse comments did it not?
    Do you think Rishi will announce the cancellation of the Premier League season?
  • Options
    Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,981

    It’s funny, you see the language used by critics of trans rights and it is eerily similar to that which was used by critics of gay rights a few decades ago.

    Won’t someone please think of the children.

    Looks completely different to me, depending upon what you mean by "trans rights"?

    If you mean people like women's rights activists including some notable names on this site the arguments look nothing like "please think of the children"
    Never forget that often behind a trans-person there is a history of anguish, stigma and mental health issues and frequently alcoholism. They are people too and deserve treatment like everyone else.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    It’s funny, you see the language used by critics of trans rights and it is eerily similar to that which was used by critics of gay rights a few decades ago.

    Won’t someone please think of the children.

    Looks completely different to me, depending upon what you mean by "trans rights"?

    If you mean people like women's rights activists including some notable names on this site the arguments look nothing like "please think of the children"
    Introducing kids to drag queens attracted a few adverse comments did it not?
    Yes there was some nonsense about that and I ridiculed those and said I'd be happy to have taken my own children to such an event.

    Most of the serious comments seem to be about the safety of women in women's only spaces, the effects of women in sport and other effects on women in general.

    I won't name names but certain women on this site have put some very thoughtful posts on here on this subject about their concerns and they surely shouldn't be lumped in with the "kids to drag queens" bullshit should they?
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    significant but temporary impact on the UK economy.

    For a while, it will be tough.....
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,412
    Why am I nervous about this budget?
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,303

    IanB2 said:

    I am taking a small buy position on the FTSE on the basis that Rishi must have a pleasant surprise or two up his sleeve that the markets might like, and balancing my risk by taking a sell position of equivalent weight on the Dow.

    You hedge trader you! I hope you realise as a hedge trader you're the public enemy of the left now ;)
    As a LibDem, that’s nothing new.

    A fund manager once told me that I could make a good fund manager myself, and seemed somewhat disappointed that I didn’t take it as a compliment.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    Scott_xP said:
    Not needing a test doesn't rule out that he has had one....
  • Options
    Sunak impressive so far. Calm. Measured. Imagine McDonnell delivering a budget - "despite Covid now is the time to nationalise without compensation all of the pharmaceutical companies"
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,268
    House listening in near silence so far.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    Release the dogs of war counter-cyclical buffer!
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    It’s funny, you see the language used by critics of trans rights and it is eerily similar to that which was used by critics of gay rights a few decades ago.

    Won’t someone please think of the children.

    Looks completely different to me, depending upon what you mean by "trans rights"?

    If you mean people like women's rights activists including some notable names on this site the arguments look nothing like "please think of the children"
    Never forget that often behind a trans-person there is a history of anguish, stigma and mental health issues and frequently alcoholism. They are people too and deserve treatment like everyone else.
    I 100% agree with you on that and I 100% stand by sensible trans rights and a medical approach to this matter.

    Extremists exist on both sides and are prats. The women raising concerns here are not nutters, nor are those wanting rights for trans people of either gender.
  • Options
    Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Important to keep income flowing even at a minimum level for those who are sick so Rishi's approach is correct.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,303

    DavidL said:

    Ave_it said:

    LOL

    Even by his usual standards Corbyn is reaching for the gutter today. He is vermin.

    Good job there is a credible replacement:
    - Corbyn lite albeit with nice hair
    - Someone obsessed with trans issues which interest 0.00001% of the population
    - a public school pro EU surrender merchant

    Is CON on 50% in the latest poll? :lol:

    I read that as trains which made fractionally more sense. Trans...jeez.
    Trans issues may affect 0.00001% of the population in a physical way (it is nearer 0.01% and perhaps as much as 1%)*, but it seems to have a much larger percentage of posters on here obsessing about it. As for the gutter press.....

    * (about 5,000ish GenderCertificates have been issued for those who, presumably have gone all the way. If you count cross-dressing as a trans issue then it is estimated as 5% of the male population, possibly as high as 10%)
    It’s been identified as the next hill for liberalism to capture. Those gunning for it have failed to notice that liberalism is in retreat around the world, and if they continue shooting for that hill they will find themselves surrounded.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,412
    Universal credit and ESA significantly loosened - no need for job interviews
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,268

    Sunak impressive so far. Calm. Measured. Imagine McDonnell delivering a budget - "despite Covid now is the time to nationalise without compensation all of the pharmaceutical companies"

    Are we watching the next PM? Impressive so far.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    Gig economy workers given special measures.
  • Options
    AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900


    Not needing a test doesn't rule out that he has had one....

    I'd guess the chance they're telling the truth there at somewhere only marginally above zero. The key players are surely getting tested regularly, especially now testing capability has been ramped up.
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Reforms to benefits will be hard to reverse.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Sunak impressive so far. Calm. Measured. Imagine McDonnell delivering a budget - "despite Covid now is the time to nationalise without compensation all of the pharmaceutical companies"

    Are we watching the next PM? Impressive so far.
    My wallet hopes so!
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,303
    If you close your eyes, doesn’t Rishi sound like a youthful Tony Blair?
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,770
    DavidL said:

    Like his style and tone.

    He's a lot better than he was in the GE. Measured, statemanlike.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,329
    Brilliant move on refunding SSP.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,412
    SMEs get a lifeline for statutory sick pay for 14 days - fully refundable by Government
  • Options

    Sunak impressive so far. Calm. Measured. Imagine McDonnell delivering a budget - "despite Covid now is the time to nationalise without compensation all of the pharmaceutical companies"

    Are we watching the next PM? Impressive so far.
    Very and only 39
  • Options
    contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    edited March 2020
    Alistair said:

    It’s funny, you see the language used by critics of trans rights and it is eerily similar to that which was used by critics of gay rights a few decades ago.

    Won’t someone please think of the children.

    Looks completely different to me, depending upon what you mean by "trans rights"?

    If you mean people like women's rights activists including some notable names on this site the arguments look nothing like "please think of the children"
    The "trans people in women's changing rooms" chat is identical to "why Lesbians shouldn't be allowed in women's changing rooms" chat back in the day.

    It's word for word.
    That 'lesbians shouldn't be allowed in women's changing rooms' is a straw man if ever there was one. I never heard anyone express such an argument. Why? because lesbians are indistiguishable biologically from other women for a start.

    Trans people have penises in many cases, right?
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,329
    Jonathan said:

    Reforms to benefits will be hard to reverse.

    Good.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    IanB2 said:

    If you close your eyes, doesn’t Rishi sound like a youthful Tony Blair?

    Although I liked Javid, he seems more confident and a better speaker than Javid was. He's certainly projecting being confident and on top of this.
  • Options
    HYUFD said:
    Might be interesting to complement that with a survey in the formerly colonised countries to explore their view on the matter.
  • Options
    MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    edited March 2020
    FPT
    Charles said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    IanB2 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    The Differences Between the Coronavirus and the Spanish Flu

    https://youtu.be/B6IgMdsZHbM

    fpt this is very good

    2 points leap out

    - the theory that this virus won't like the hot weather. We don't know yet, but MERS -another coronavirus - comes from Saudi Arabia, and its host is the camel.

    - in addition to the elderly a major at risk group is the obese - highly relevant in the States.
    On the latter point, this is worth a read:

    https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/10/opinions/osterholm-coronavirus-interview-bergen/index.html
    Interesting that he thinks obesity will raise the US fatality rate over China despite China smoking more.
    On that note, I'm genuinely surprised "ARE YOU STILL SMOKING? IF SO, STOP ASAP!" hasn't been part of the COVID-19 messaging. It is a risk factor that people are able to modify, though I don't know (and probably the experts don't either yet) exactly how much help a couple of months of lung regeneration would be.

    It may have been deemed a possible distraction from the "wash your hands" messaging, and risk being seen as too nanny-statish, so I'm not convinced it would have actually been a good idea, at least to spend too much attention on, but I remain surprised because (a) it's never bad advice, (b) it's unlike PHE to miss a chance to condemn smoking!

    Nevertheless, the official guidance at a press conference (from memory, but I think I'm only slightly paraphrasing) was "if you were already thinking of giving up smoking, now would be a good time". I have a feeling that was in response to a reporter's question rather than something that was brought up spontaneously. Which struck me as yet another very wishy-washy recommendation, bearing in mind the strength of the evidence against smoking in general, and the fact smokers in China were known to be a high-risk group, and the fact this is more easily modified than many other risk factors are. This was one of the things that fed into my lament FPT, please just tell us what things we can do to protect ourselves and each other, bearing in mind you actually know a lot more about them than we do.

    It's not as if telling people to give up the cigarettes is such a radical piece of health advice that it would likely stoke panic, nor is there any conceivable benefit to "timing it right" by only telling people to give up smoking later down the line. If you didn't want to distract from the main message of the campaign, some messaging specifically targeted at smokers (eg a website, or "COVID-19 and smoking" health advice posters to be compulsorily displayed at tobacco retail units) doesn't sound unreasonable. FWIW the Irish equivalent of PHE have made "COVID-19 and smoking" advice prominent on their website with a call to action to their Stop Smoking services.
    There is a group of smokers “irreconcilables” who are resistant to all anti-smoking messages. About 20% of smokers (4% of the adult population)

    I assume the concern is that if they see anti CV messages as anti-smoking they will ignore them all.
    Yes, this is my assumption too. Still, interesting that in Ireland "if you smoke, stop" is an integral part of their COVID-19 messaging (their COVID-19 website includes a call-to-action linking to their smoking cessation service) whereas in the UK it's been pretty much totally peripheral. Shows that experts applying their own judgement in the face of uncertainty can reach quite different conclusions. And doesn't necessarily mean either group has "got it wrong". My personal inclination is that there are both practical and ethical reasons to lean towards if you're the guys with the most complete evidence, best experts and therefore the best advice, be transparent and inform people what steps they can take to reduce their risks, rather than leaving them to inexpertly "judge their own risks" in a froth of misinformation and uncertainty. This doesn't apply just to smoking but a range of measures (behavioural, travel advice etc) where - while I do appreciate gvt are taking considered steps to manage information flow - us plebs are being given wishy-washier advice in situations where the gvt actually has a clearer idea than we do.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,412
    Jonathan said:

    Reforms to benefits will be hard to reverse.

    They really won’t. This is a Conservative government with a huge majority.

    But, Universal Credit does take too long to both claim and pay so I expect that reform to stick.
  • Options
    eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,899

    I have some feeling the virus is slowing down today. Either this will turn out to be unsupported nonsense at a Mystic Meg level of unsupportability, or we might hopefully see some figures from the slightly less worrying end of the scale from certain other countries by the end of the day.

    You must have been reassured by Trump's calming words.

    https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1237459720035799040
    Is he talking about covid-19 or his Presidency?
    He's talking about that rather unpleasant smell that's just filled the room and VP Pence is trying to ignore.

    The skin around his eyes is a normal colour compared to his face which is noticeably more orange. As a "tan" in winter is a vanity choice, I find it odd that he chooses this look.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,329

    IanB2 said:

    If you close your eyes, doesn’t Rishi sound like a youthful Tony Blair?

    Although I liked Javid, he seems more confident and a better speaker than Javid was. He's certainly projecting being confident and on top of this.
    Absolutely agree.

    Small Business rates abolished for the year!!
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,412
    Business rates abolished for cinemas, restaurants and music venues for one year
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,770
    A billion here, a billion there soon enough you're talking real money....
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Major business rates reform!
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,412
    All retail and hospitality businesses with rateable value below £51k also get 100% discount
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    edited March 2020
    That one year abolition of business rates for RV under £51k gets a big cheer
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,946
    Blimey - 100% rates abolitions for those below threshhold. Thats a huge help to the high st.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Business rates abolished for cinemas, restaurants and music venues for one year

    Fantastic news!

    Hopefully its made permanent. Business rates should be abolished and replaced with something else.
  • Options
    Genuinely impressive stuff so far for SMEs and workers
  • Options
    contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    Sunak impressive so far. Calm. Measured. Imagine McDonnell delivering a budget - "despite Covid now is the time to nationalise without compensation all of the pharmaceutical companies"

    Are we watching the next PM? Impressive so far.
    Anybody can sound impressive when they are handing out taxpayer money to be financed by borrowing.
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    A billion here, a billion there soon enough you're talking real money....

    The magic money tree is getting a damn good shake today. 2021-5 is going to be hard.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,412
    He’s going really big on the High Street and small business here.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,329
    Helicopter money now. The government thinks this is going to be really, really bad.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,412

    Business rates abolished for cinemas, restaurants and music venues for one year

    Fantastic news!

    Hopefully its made permanent. Business rates should be abolished and replaced with something else.
    Sounds like he’s going to grasp that nettle in the autumn budget
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Alistair said:

    It’s funny, you see the language used by critics of trans rights and it is eerily similar to that which was used by critics of gay rights a few decades ago.

    Won’t someone please think of the children.

    Looks completely different to me, depending upon what you mean by "trans rights"?

    If you mean people like women's rights activists including some notable names on this site the arguments look nothing like "please think of the children"
    The "trans people in women's changing rooms" chat is identical to "why Lesbians shouldn't be allowed in women's changing rooms" chat back in the day.

    It's word for word.
    It’s a question of balancing rights between women and trans women

    Changing rooms are not particularly significant.

    Refuges matter.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    £30bn fiscal stimulus.....
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,329
    £30bn. Christ.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,412
    £3k cash grant for small businesses even if they don’t pay rates
  • Options
    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,288
    Jonathan said:

    A billion here, a billion there soon enough you're talking real money....

    The magic money tree is getting a damn good shake today. 2021-5 is going to be hard.
    Magic money forest.
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,216

    It’s funny, you see the language used by critics of trans rights and it is eerily similar to that which was used by critics of gay rights a few decades ago.

    Won’t someone please think of the children.

    No they aren’t.

    1. No-one sensible has - or should have - a problem with trans people having rights eg to transition and not to face discrimination etc.
    2. Given the lack of medical care and other support available to people with gender dysphoria, which undoubtedly causes them to suffer more and for longer than should be the case, this is an area which warrants additional investment.
    3. What people - mainly women - do have an issue with is the proposal to allow men to claim that they are women WITHOUT MORE - and in particular without any sort of medical diagnosis - thus allowing men to have access to women only spaces, which exist for a reason. This also impacts on all sorts of other women’s’ rights. Ignoring these is unjust and unfair.
    4. What women object to is having some men, some of whom claim to be trans, telling women what womanhood means and seeking to deny the realities of female experiences, as if womanhood is simply something that you can assert and has no objective reality.
    5. They also object to them shouting down and bullying women who ask that their views and experiences and concerns be listened to and taken into account. For centuries women have had men telling them how to behave, what they can or can’t do, what being a “lady” or “femininity” means. Now we’re being told what even being a woman means. No. just no. We have a voice and we want to be listened to too.
    6. The issue of what sort of medical treatment or care should be given to under-age children who claim to be suffering from gender dysphoria is a complex one, in which expert medical advice and a great deal of thought is needed, not least because the consequences of taking premature and irreversible action are so serious and long-lasting. There is some concern that some may be pushing for children to be allowed to make such decisions without such advice or thought, merely to prove some ideological point. If so, that is highly irresponsible and dangerous and careless of the best interests of the children concerned.
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,185
    In walking and chewing gum at the same time news, it seems that Govey can't do anything else while smirking self-satisfiedly. That doesn't leave him a lot of time for doing anything else.

    https://twitter.com/Alain_Tolhurst/status/1237700971553263619?s=20
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,770
    DavidL said:

    Helicopter money now. The government thinks this is going to be really, really bad.

    £7 billion here....£18billion there....in total £30 billion......
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    DavidL said:

    Helicopter money now. The government thinks this is going to be really, really bad.

    The effect of this virus on the economy this year will ultimately be far greater than it will on morbidity this year.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,258
    Gap in the market for a party that believes in sound money and sensible management of the public finances.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited March 2020
    Fire up the Quattro printing presses....

    McDonnell and Co must be sitting there thinking if only we won the election we could have done this, nationalized everything and nobody would complain.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,412

    Business rates abolished for cinemas, restaurants and music venues for one year

    Fantastic news!

    Hopefully its made permanent. Business rates should be abolished and replaced with something else.
    Sounds like he’s going to grasp that nettle in the autumn budget
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    kinabalu said:

    Gap in the market for a party that believes in sound money and sensible management of the public finances.

    Sound money and sensible management of the public finances is what you do outside of emergencies.
  • Options
    contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    DavidL said:

    Helicopter money now. The government thinks this is going to be really, really bad.

    The effect of this virus on the economy this year will ultimately be far greater than it will on morbidity this year.
    Exactly the point that Trump is trying to make.
This discussion has been closed.