I was right! Boris hasn't just shot Labour's fox he's blown it to smithereens with an AK-47. This is a budget bonanza with a ton of goodies for one and all - absolutely impossible for Labour to counter.
If the UK are having to do this to cope with impact of coronavirus and the public finances are in ok shape, what the hell of the likes of Italy and Greece going to do...they are going to need bailing out again.
Helicopter money now. The government thinks this is going to be really, really bad.
The effect of this virus on the economy this year will ultimately be far greater than it will on morbidity this year.
Exactly the point that Trump is trying to make.
He's an arsehole for saying it the way he is. The effect on morbidity won't be too bad if we contain it - but the effect on the economy will be.
America's lack of containment means they'll take a hit on both.
So more people might die from the economic impact of our measures to contain Corona than would die if we had simply done nothing about this, accepted the casualties and just carried on?
Helicopter money now. The government thinks this is going to be really, really bad.
We are facing a couple of weeks of uncertainty whilst the virus stats worsen around the world. Followed by an Italian style lockdown for a few weeks. Followed by a hopefully manageable epidemic for a month or more, during which a fair few of our older relatives will meet their end. After that, who knows. Economically, there isn’t a good news story to tell here.
Helicopter money now. The government thinks this is going to be really, really bad.
The effect of this virus on the economy this year will ultimately be far greater than it will on morbidity this year.
Exactly the point that Trump is trying to make.
He's an arsehole for saying it the way he is. The effect on morbidity won't be too bad if we contain it - but the effect on the economy will be.
America's lack of containment means they'll take a hit on both.
So more people might die from the economic impact of our measures to contain Corona than would die if we had simply done nothing about this, accepted the casualties and just carried on?
Just got my car filled up with petrol as you should always do on budget day mornings. Given the price has been moving downward this seems an obvious choice for an increase.
A group called Fairfuel did a poll that showed fuel tax increases are about as popular as amnesties for paedophiles.
An organisation called Fairfuel would say that wouldn't they.
I was right! Boris hasn't just shot Labour's fox he's blown it to smithereens with an AK-47. This is a budget bonanza with a ton of goodies for one and all - absolutely impossible for Labour to counter.
I was right! Boris hasn't just shot Labour's fox he's blown it to smithereens with an AK-47. This is a budget bonanza with a ton of goodies for one and all - absolutely impossible for Labour to counter.
I was right! Boris hasn't just shot Labour's fox he's blown it to smithereens with an AK-47. This is a budget bonanza with a ton of goodies for one and all - absolutely impossible for Labour to counter.
Never fear - Corbyn will respond !!
This racist misogynist government again fail to look after the poor, the sick, etc etc etc.
Business rates abolished for cinemas, restaurants and music venues for one year
Fantastic news!
Hopefully its made permanent. Business rates should be abolished and replaced with something else.
He has said there will be a full review of the business rates system later in the year
Good. Business rates are outdated and need to be abolished as they are. The idea that physical buildings should be taxed but Amazon shouldn't be doesn't belong in the 21st century.
I was right! Boris hasn't just shot Labour's fox he's blown it to smithereens with an AK-47. This is a budget bonanza with a ton of goodies for one and all - absolutely impossible for Labour to counter.
Never fear - Corbyn will respond !!
The budget response is the most difficult speech in Parliament.
Sounds like he’s serious about fiscal rules - not going to go above a 3% deficit throughout this parliament and to ensure headline debt is falling again by the end.
McDonnell and Co must be sitting there thinking if only we won the election we could have done this, nationalized everything and nobody would complain.
What absolutely nobody is considering is that Corona might be contained quite quickly, and that the authorities will have conducted a massive stimulus program on what is fundamantally a pretty robust global economy.
Which wouldn;t make it a winter, but a blazing summer.
Sounds like he’s serious about fiscal rules - not going to go above a 3% deficit throughout this parliament and to ensure headline debt is falling again by the end.
Any borrowing numbers or claims he says today are relatively meaningless.
I was right! Boris hasn't just shot Labour's fox he's blown it to smithereens with an AK-47. This is a budget bonanza with a ton of goodies for one and all - absolutely impossible for Labour to counter.
Tories are the new New Labour?
Yes, I've thought for a long time that the politician Boris most resembles is not Churchill or Trump but Blair. This budget is absolutely peak Gordon Brown.
What absolutely nobody is considering is that Corona might be contained quite quickly, and that the authorities will have conducted a massive stimulus program on what is fundamantally a pretty robust global economy.
Which wouldn;t make it a winter, but a blazing summer.
There is little sign that will be true. It has taken China 3-4 months to get it under control and that was basically locking down 60 million people for the past 6 weeks.
What absolutely nobody is considering is that Corona might be contained quite quickly, and that the authorities will have conducted a massive stimulus program on what is fundamantally a pretty robust global economy.
Which wouldn;t make it a winter, but a blazing summer.
Sounds like he’s serious about fiscal rules - not going to go above a 3% deficit throughout this parliament and to ensure headline debt is falling again by the end.
Any borrowing numbers or claims he says today are relatively meaningless.
Forthcoming budgets post-virus may be different.
True but the mood music is “I am not another Gordon Brown.”
He’s not going to be irresponsible with the public finances.
What absolutely nobody is considering is that Corona might be contained quite quickly, and that the authorities will have conducted a massive stimulus program on what is fundamantally a pretty robust global economy.
Which wouldn;t make it a winter, but a blazing summer.
Nobody is considering it because it has an extremely low probability.
... 4. What women object to is having some men, some of whom claim to be trans, telling women what womanhood means and seeking to deny the realities of female experiences, as if womanhood is simply something that you can assert and has no objective reality. 5. They also object to them shouting down and bullying women who ask that their views and experiences and concerns be listened to and taken into account. For centuries women have had men telling them how to behave, what they can or can’t do, what being a “lady” or “femininity” means. Now we’re being told what even being a woman means. No. just no. We have a voice and we want to be listened to too. ...
I agree with all the other points. On these two, my own strategy is to ignore the shouters. As you say, I have my own voice too.
What absolutely nobody is considering is that Corona might be contained quite quickly, and that the authorities will have conducted a massive stimulus program on what is fundamantally a pretty robust global economy.
Which wouldn;t make it a winter, but a blazing summer.
Nobody is considering it because it has an extremely low probability.
Indeed, but a disproportionately important low probability, with disproportionate effects.
Here's something I hadn't thought of before. (Regarding the US, not the UK budget.)
The US is running a big budget deficit - 5% of GDP. In the post WW2 world, that's a number that has only been reached about five times. Three times during the Global Financial Crisis, once in the early 80s recession, and once when the US faced the trifecta of the Vietnam War, the first oil shock and the cost of putting a man on the moon.
The US was running this deficit when - how to put this - the sun was shining and economic growth was reasonable. How big could the deficit get with the economic slowdown associate with the Coronavirus? 10%? More?
Now, it may well be that deficits don't matter any more (see Japan). But it may also be that this conclusively marks the point at which any pretence of fiscal prudence is abandoned by the countries of the world. This marks the point at which monetisation of debt - i.e. printing money to pay bills - becomes de rigeur for every country.
If (print and) deficit spend becomes universal, then it can only end with money becoming devalued. The political pressure will always be to spend that extra dollar/euro/pound and to get that economy moving. (Vroom vroom.)
Basically: if you own 30 Year Treasuries yielding a massive... 1.2%... then you might be in for a very nasty shock at some point.
Here's something I hadn't thought of before. (Regarding the US, not the UK budget.)
The US is running a big budget deficit - 5% of GDP. In the post WW2 world, that's a number that has only been reached about five times. Three times during the Global Financial Crisis, once in the early 80s recession, and once when the US faced the trifecta of the Vietnam War, the first oil shock and the cost of putting a man on the moon.
The US was running this deficit when - how to put this - the sun was shining and economic growth was reasonable. How big could the deficit get with the economic slowdown associate with the Coronavirus? 10%? More?
Now, it may well be that deficits don't matter any more (see Japan). But it may also be that this conclusively marks the point at which any pretence of fiscal prudence is abandoned by the countries of the world. This marks the point at which monetisation of debt - i.e. printing money to pay bills - becomes de rigeur for every country.
If (print and) deficit spend becomes universal, then it can only end with money becoming devalued. The political pressure will always be to spend that extra dollar/euro/pound and to get that economy moving. (Vroom vroom.)
Basically: if you own 30 Year Treasuries yielding a massive... 1.2%... then you might be in for a very nasty shock at some point.
So buy Gold and Index Linked Bonds. Which has been a sensible position for any investor for some time.
Meanwhile Rishi ensures that we can continue drowning our sorrows in wine, beer and spirits.
Sounds like he’s serious about fiscal rules - not going to go above a 3% deficit throughout this parliament and to ensure headline debt is falling again by the end.
Any borrowing numbers or claims he says today are relatively meaningless.
Forthcoming budgets post-virus may be different.
True but the mood music is “I am not another Gordon Brown.”
He’s not going to be irresponsible with the public finances.
He's hardly going to come out and say that he's a grasshopper rather than an ant. Doesn't mean that he's telling the truth.
Gordon Brown was endlessly going on about prudence. A successor chancellor who has opened up the spigot is going to try to look responsible, even as he raids the earnings of future generations.
Sunak is taking all sorts of political risks here. His "everything is awesome" approach might get easy applause from the folks behind him today, but might be rather reckless in retrospect.
Sounds like he’s serious about fiscal rules - not going to go above a 3% deficit throughout this parliament and to ensure headline debt is falling again by the end.
Any borrowing numbers or claims he says today are relatively meaningless.
Forthcoming budgets post-virus may be different.
True but the mood music is “I am not another Gordon Brown.”
He’s not going to be irresponsible with the public finances.
He's hardly going to come out and say that he's a grasshopper rather than an ant. Doesn't mean that he's telling the truth.
Gordon Brown was endlessly going on about prudence. A successor chancellor who has opened up the spigot is going to try to look responsible, even as he raids the earnings of future generations.
Gordon ladelled on compound spending increases to bribe Labour voters rather than build infrastructure.
What absolutely nobody is considering is that Corona might be contained quite quickly, and that the authorities will have conducted a massive stimulus program on what is fundamantally a pretty robust global economy.
Which wouldn;t make it a winter, but a blazing summer.
Nobody is considering it because it has an extremely low probability.
Indeed, but a disproportionately important low probability, with disproportionate effects.
Have you been reading Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy recently?
I was right! Boris hasn't just shot Labour's fox he's blown it to smithereens with an AK-47. This is a budget bonanza with a ton of goodies for one and all - absolutely impossible for Labour to counter.
Just say thanks for implementing our budget - but what about private schools?
What absolutely nobody is considering is that Corona might be contained quite quickly, and that the authorities will have conducted a massive stimulus program on what is fundamantally a pretty robust global economy.
Which wouldn;t make it a winter, but a blazing summer.
Well let's hope you are right, as I'm certain the government and country as a whole would much rather deal with inflation getting out of control, instead of excess deaths in the five or six figures for the next couple of years.
What absolutely nobody is considering is that Corona might be contained quite quickly, and that the authorities will have conducted a massive stimulus program on what is fundamantally a pretty robust global economy.
Which wouldn;t make it a winter, but a blazing summer.
Nobody is considering it because it has an extremely low probability.
Indeed, but a disproportionately important low probability, with disproportionate effects.
Have you been reading Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy recently?
Sounds like he’s serious about fiscal rules - not going to go above a 3% deficit throughout this parliament and to ensure headline debt is falling again by the end.
Any borrowing numbers or claims he says today are relatively meaningless.
Forthcoming budgets post-virus may be different.
True but the mood music is “I am not another Gordon Brown.”
He’s not going to be irresponsible with the public finances.
He's hardly going to come out and say that he's a grasshopper rather than an ant. Doesn't mean that he's telling the truth.
Gordon Brown was endlessly going on about prudence. A successor chancellor who has opened up the spigot is going to try to look responsible, even as he raids the earnings of future generations.
He was but he was constantly breaking his own rules.
Sunak is being very clear here that he isn’t going to do that.
Sounds like he’s serious about fiscal rules - not going to go above a 3% deficit throughout this parliament and to ensure headline debt is falling again by the end.
Any borrowing numbers or claims he says today are relatively meaningless.
Forthcoming budgets post-virus may be different.
True but the mood music is “I am not another Gordon Brown.”
He’s not going to be irresponsible with the public finances.
He's hardly going to come out and say that he's a grasshopper rather than an ant. Doesn't mean that he's telling the truth.
Gordon Brown was endlessly going on about prudence. A successor chancellor who has opened up the spigot is going to try to look responsible, even as he raids the earnings of future generations.
He was but he was constantly breaking his own rules.
Sunak is being very clear here that he isn’t going to do that.
Here's something I hadn't thought of before. (Regarding the US, not the UK budget.)
The US is running a big budget deficit - 5% of GDP. In the post WW2 world, that's a number that has only been reached about five times. Three times during the Global Financial Crisis, once in the early 80s recession, and once when the US faced the trifecta of the Vietnam War, the first oil shock and the cost of putting a man on the moon.
The US was running this deficit when - how to put this - the sun was shining and economic growth was reasonable. How big could the deficit get with the economic slowdown associate with the Coronavirus? 10%? More?
Now, it may well be that deficits don't matter any more (see Japan). But it may also be that this conclusively marks the point at which any pretence of fiscal prudence is abandoned by the countries of the world. This marks the point at which monetisation of debt - i.e. printing money to pay bills - becomes de rigeur for every country.
If (print and) deficit spend becomes universal, then it can only end with money becoming devalued. The political pressure will always be to spend that extra dollar/euro/pound and to get that economy moving. (Vroom vroom.)
Basically: if you own 30 Year Treasuries yielding a massive... 1.2%... then you might be in for a very nasty shock at some point.
So buy Gold and Index Linked Bonds. Which has been a sensible position for any investor for some time.
Meanwhile Rishi ensures that we can continue drowning our sorrows in wine, beer and spirits.
This is getting pitiful now. This is the sort of speech I would have made had I been telephoned late last night and told I was appointed emergency Chancellor.
Comments
Or, maybe @eadric ?
America's lack of containment means they'll take a hit on both.
Interesting idea. Very interesting.
Which wouldn;t make it a winter, but a blazing summer.
Forthcoming budgets post-virus may be different.
There's your soundbite.
Rishi Sunak
A point that will no doubt be missed.
Hostage to fortune...
He’s not going to be irresponsible with the public finances.
https://twitter.com/estwebber/status/1237725921853014016
The US is running a big budget deficit - 5% of GDP. In the post WW2 world, that's a number that has only been reached about five times. Three times during the Global Financial Crisis, once in the early 80s recession, and once when the US faced the trifecta of the Vietnam War, the first oil shock and the cost of putting a man on the moon.
The US was running this deficit when - how to put this - the sun was shining and economic growth was reasonable. How big could the deficit get with the economic slowdown associate with the Coronavirus? 10%? More?
Now, it may well be that deficits don't matter any more (see Japan). But it may also be that this conclusively marks the point at which any pretence of fiscal prudence is abandoned by the countries of the world. This marks the point at which monetisation of debt - i.e. printing money to pay bills - becomes de rigeur for every country.
If (print and) deficit spend becomes universal, then it can only end with money becoming devalued. The political pressure will always be to spend that extra dollar/euro/pound and to get that economy moving. (Vroom vroom.)
Basically: if you own 30 Year Treasuries yielding a massive... 1.2%... then you might be in for a very nasty shock at some point.
Cider, wine and beer duty all frozen.
Meanwhile Rishi ensures that we can continue drowning our sorrows in wine, beer and spirits.
Gordon Brown was endlessly going on about prudence. A successor chancellor who has opened up the spigot is going to try to look responsible, even as he raids the earnings of future generations.
That should save just over £1bn a year.
Next year?
Sunak is being very clear here that he isn’t going to do that.