Hmmm. David Lammy on Sky being as gormless as ever ... slightly slower growth is apparently a huge drop in GDP, without any realisation that different measures can be taken.
Just catching up with some local SW results. Those two LibDem targets, North Devon, North Cornwall - which were nip and tuck? Both now have 15k Conservative majorities. Even the expected loss of St. Ives ended up with a handy 4,300 Con majority firebreak.
Camborne and Redruth - Labour still 8,700 votes behind. St. Austell and Newquay 16,500 behind. SE Cornwall was a 21,000 majority over Labour. LibDems nowhere in any of these. The LibDem brand has been Ratnerised in the SW with the Swinson/Revoke combo. That's going to take some coming back from.
LibDem until 2015, Torbay now has a Conservative majority of 18,000. In Totnes I was delighted that the Tory vote was actually larger than then-Conservative Sarah Wollaston achieved in 2017. Watch out for Anthony Mangnall - only 30, he could go places.
The much-touted independent in Devon East lost by 6,700 votes. As I suggested, there was no-one left to squeeze.
Trying to blame last nights horror show on Brexit is totally deluded by some Labour MPs and commentators . A better leader with a more credible manifesto would have had a chance .
Not only did Corbyn effect the Labour share but he also made it harder for the Lib Dems to pick up more seats by terrifying large amounts of pro EU Tories into sticking with the party .
And to be blunt the current Labour shambles could learn a thing or two from Blair . Yes he made a disastrous error on Iraq which will always taint his leadership but he won 3 elections .
It’s pointless having some laudible policies if they never have a chance of being put into place .
Either Labour want to get into government or they want to navel gaze and live in an echo chamber . Unless they start appealing to older voters again then they’ve got zip chance of winning .
I’m desperately disappointed as a Labour supporter to see the Tories get in for another 5 years .
I’m not angry at Labour voters in the north and the Midlands for going over to the Tories I’m angry at Labour and Corbyn for making that possible .
Many Labour friends and myself voted for them inspite of Corbyn and when that happens you’re never going to win an election . Because you’re never going to have enough people in the wider public holding their nose and doing the same .
Not only did Corbyn effect the Labour share but he also made it harder for the Lib Dems to pick up more seats by terrifying large amounts of pro EU Tories into sticking with the party .
See Winchester....the nutso manifesto clearly scared the shit out of voters there.
FTSE up 100 points, pound up two cents against the dollar and to a ten year high against the Euro.
Goldman Sachs forecasting 150bill of business and foreign investment incoming and economy to be growing at an annual rate of 2.4% by end of 2020.
Yep, it's amazing what happens with a clear majority government of positivity, opportunity and in favour of commerce and business.
'fuck business'
People who are actually in business know where that quote came from*, and the difference between a Johnson government and a Corbyn government with regard to investment opportunities and business taxation.
*he was being harrassed for a response to the CBI putting out a very pro-EU statement on the eve of a crucial day of negotation with the EU. His private quote referred to organised business groups, rather than business in general. Maybe he should have said "f*** big business" instead?
I always thought he was referring to the Business Department because they were organising all these statements. After Clarke and Harrington left the dept it all stopped and the CBI basically did a u-turn as did the SMMT.
FTSE up 100 points, pound up two cents against the dollar and to a ten year high against the Euro.
What are you smoking? GBP Vs EUR its back where it was after the Brexit vote, still well below 2015 levels.
No smoking anything, but I'll admit to drinking a bit! Champagne mostly.
You're right. My source was CNN who reported it wrong. It's a three year high vs the Euro, from Brexit referendum day. Pound is higher than it was ten years ago vs the Euro.
The pound is now only down 14% thanks to the cockeyed horseshittery of Brexit. Rejoice and praise the economic mastery of the People's Government!
Has Corbyn already lost the next election as well?
Labour needs 122 seats to get to a majority. Blair in 1997 won 145 but does anyone believe that anyone in Labour are capable of anything remotely equivalent today? Blair won 56 seats in Scotland, an increase of 6. The journey looks even longer there than it does in England and Wales. So many seats that need to be won are just not even close anymore. It looks like at least a 2 stage journey to me.
Life would be even tougher if they had the Lib Dems breathing down their neck. They don't and after the pathetic efforts of the Tiggers it is not easy to see where a new party is going to come from.
I think it's right that a majority government looks almost impossible in one go - it would need the performance of a 1945 Attlee or 1997 Blair.
If the goal is just to lead a coalition / C&S government, and the SNP have ~50 and are prepared to prop that leader up, then the total Labour gain needed is only 70 or so (~ 60 if the LDs are also on board). That's's not impossible, so the Tories do need to plan carefully for the possbility.
So they should back PR (by STV).
Or just "give" Scotland independence in 2024 if things look bad...
Hmmm. David Lammy on Sky being as gormless as ever ... slightly slower growth is apparently a huge drop in GDP, without any realisation that different measures can be taken.
Since Britain has performed worse relative to its peers since the referendum vote and is currently flatlining, the idea that the government is stuffed full of economic geniuses who will confidently counter an economic hit equivalent to a severe recession may comfort the weaker-minded Leavers, but anyone with an ounce of common sense will realise that choppy times are ahead.
Hmmm. David Lammy on Sky being as gormless as ever ... slightly slower growth is apparently a huge drop in GDP, without any realisation that different measures can be taken.
Since Britain has performed worse relative to its peers since the referendum vote and is currently flatlining, the idea that the government is stuffed full of economic geniuses who will confidently counter an economic hit equivalent to a severe recession may comfort the weaker-minded Leavers, but anyone with an ounce of common sense will realise that choppy times are ahead.
In the land of Jeremy Corbyn, Boris Johnson is king.
FTSE up 100 points, pound up two cents against the dollar and to a ten year high against the Euro.
What are you smoking? GBP Vs EUR its back where it was after the Brexit vote, still well below 2015 levels.
No smoking anything, but I'll admit to drinking a bit! Champagne mostly.
You're right. My source was CNN who reported it wrong. It's a three year high vs the Euro, from Brexit referendum day. Pound is higher than it was ten years ago vs the Euro.
The pound is now only down 14% thanks to the cockeyed horseshittery of Brexit. Rejoice and praise the economic mastery of the People's Government!
The one bit of pre-election calculus I was most worried by was your analysis of the IPSOS leadership ratings, but I think I was right to point out that Boris' commitment to Brexit introduced a unique factor that wouldn't necessarily be reflected in conventional leadership ratings. I just didn't know how huge that effect would be!
Labour talking head aren't listening / learning. Lammy is banging on about racist / populist direction of the country.
When will they get it through their thick heads that Northerners see it as London types calling him thick racist leavers (yet again).
About five minutes after Ken Loach blamed the wrong kind of Jews.
This is one of the most important things...to cut this cancer of the Cult of Corbynism out of British life. I fear it will be harder than it should be, as so many of these structures around Maomentum are nice little earners and still have plenty of faithful followers.
FTSE up 100 points, pound up two cents against the dollar and to a ten year high against the Euro.
Goldman Sachs forecasting 150bill of business and foreign investment incoming and economy to be growing at an annual rate of 2.4% by end of 2020.
Yep, it's amazing what happens with a clear majority government of positivity, opportunity and in favour of commerce and business.
'fuck business'
People who are actually in business know where that quote came from*, and the difference between a Johnson government and a Corbyn government with regard to investment opportunities and business taxation.
*he was being harrassed for a response to the CBI putting out a very pro-EU statement on the eve of a crucial day of negotation with the EU. His private quote referred to organised business groups, rather than business in general. Maybe he should have said "f*** big business" instead?
What would I do without somebody to tell me what a person actually means when they say something? I dunno, actually work it out for myself perhaps? If only I was possessed of sufficient telepathy to work out what somebody was thinking when they speak...
FTSE up 100 points, pound up two cents against the dollar and to a ten year high against the Euro.
Goldman Sachs forecasting 150bill of business and foreign investment incoming and economy to be growing at an annual rate of 2.4% by end of 2020.
Yep, it's amazing what happens with a clear majority government of positivity, opportunity and in favour of commerce and business.
'fuck business'
People who are actually in business know where that quote came from*, and the difference between a Johnson government and a Corbyn government with regard to investment opportunities and business taxation.
*he was being harrassed for a response to the CBI putting out a very pro-EU statement on the eve of a crucial day of negotation with the EU. His private quote referred to organised business groups, rather than business in general. Maybe he should have said "f*** big business" instead?
I always thought he was referring to the Business Department because they were organising all these statements. After Clarke and Harrington left the dept it all stopped and the CBI basically did a u-turn as did the SMMT.
Yes, that could also be a fair account. What's definitely true is that his out-of-context quote wasn't intended to be a slur against commerce in general.
Whereas Corbyn's manifesto definitely was a massive slur against commerce in general!
What is truly damning is that only 6% were put off Labour and scuttled off to other parties because of their offer on the economy. To that 94% - are you out of your bloody minds???
FTSE up 100 points, pound up two cents against the dollar and to a ten year high against the Euro.
What are you smoking? GBP Vs EUR its back where it was after the Brexit vote, still well below 2015 levels.
No smoking anything, but I'll admit to drinking a bit! Champagne mostly.
You're right. My source was CNN who reported it wrong. It's a three year high vs the Euro, from Brexit referendum day. Pound is higher than it was ten years ago vs the Euro.
The pound is now only down 14% thanks to the cockeyed horseshittery of Brexit. Rejoice and praise the economic mastery of the People's Government!
A decade ago, the pound was 1.10 vs the Euro. Today, it's 1.20, that's 9% to the good.
Hmmm. David Lammy on Sky being as gormless as ever ... slightly slower growth is apparently a huge drop in GDP, without any realisation that different measures can be taken.
Since Britain has performed worse relative to its peers since the referendum vote and is currently flatlining, the idea that the government is stuffed full of economic geniuses who will confidently counter an economic hit equivalent to a severe recession may comfort the weaker-minded Leavers, but anyone with an ounce of common sense will realise that choppy times are ahead.
In the land of Jeremy Corbyn, Boris Johnson is king.
The country is up shit creek without a paddle as opposed to shit torrent. Still not a good place to be.
What is truly damning is that only 6% were put off Labour by their offer on the economy. To that 94% - are you out of your minds???
There is a genuine problem. Lots of lower middle class people have seen stagnate wages and do fear that their kids will be worse off than them, especially with growth of China / ML / AI.
I really hope that Boris puts some serious people in position to do some proper thinking about this. Let Boris do stupid stunts and leave the hard stuff to Gove and a team of people willing to look at evidence based policy.
So is Boris Johnson the first Tory leader to have succeeded because of Europe rather than failed because of it? All those who said Brexit would unite the right and divide the left were completely right.
What is truly damning is that only 6% were put off Labour and scuttled off to other parties because of their offer on the economy. To that 94% - are you out of your bloody minds???
They voted for the Tories isn’t that enough ! Lol clearly if Bozo doesn’t deliver on his promises then the red wall might just be rebuilt if of course Labour pick a decent leader !
FTSE up 100 points, pound up two cents against the dollar and to a ten year high against the Euro.
What are you smoking? GBP Vs EUR its back where it was after the Brexit vote, still well below 2015 levels.
No smoking anything, but I'll admit to drinking a bit! Champagne mostly.
You're right. My source was CNN who reported it wrong. It's a three year high vs the Euro, from Brexit referendum day. Pound is higher than it was ten years ago vs the Euro.
The pound is now only down 14% thanks to the cockeyed horseshittery of Brexit. Rejoice and praise the economic mastery of the People's Government!
The one bit of pre-election calculus I was most worried by was your analysis of the IPSOS leadership ratings, but I think I was right to point out that Boris' commitment to Brexit introduced a unique factor that wouldn't necessarily be reflected in conventional leadership ratings. I just didn't know how huge that effect would be!
Yes I think that was one factor. Although the error this time was about two SDs, there have been two errors of similar magnitude relative to the model, 92 and 79, both in the Tories' favour. The result this most resembles is 79, when the model was off but the polls were right. 92 was different because the model was off but the polls were off even more. I still think the model is basically sound and I still trust leader ratings more than the polls themselves.
Well it was a fun election and build up. I'm pleased I got con seats spot on to the exact number but disappointed in my constituency bets. I misread the SNP strength but I did expect the NE of scotland to be a little better for the blues as it proved. Time to step back from PB for a bit, not completely but posting much less often and concentrate on my physical and mental health, I've got far too wound up by everything and gone off half cocked more than once too often and life is too short. Hillary for labour if they want to be rid of momentum and all that gunk and get rid of the union influence. Otherwise its splitsville by summer. Have fun and play nice all and con gain Perth and north Perthshire 2024
Hmmm. David Lammy on Sky being as gormless as ever ... slightly slower growth is apparently a huge drop in GDP, without any realisation that different measures can be taken.
Since Britain has performed worse relative to its peers since the referendum vote and is currently flatlining, the idea that the government is stuffed full of economic geniuses who will confidently counter an economic hit equivalent to a severe recession may comfort the weaker-minded Leavers, but anyone with an ounce of common sense will realise that choppy times are ahead.
In the land of Jeremy Corbyn, Boris Johnson is king.
The country is up shit creek without a paddle as opposed to shit torrent. Still not a good place to be.
Bloke in a chippy in Rother Valley: Kick all the Marxists out and go back to being a Labour Party
Look North should be compulsory viewing for Momentum today.
I don't think that they are interested in listening.
Heads further up their own backsides than before, solemnly listening to their own farts - despite a whacking great paddle on their posterior from the public in the provinces.
Unless something has changed that I missed.
This seems to be the mood on Twitter too - and while I accept that Twitter can be very unrepresentative, on questions like this, it's probably less so.
The Left stands a good chance of winning again.
Unless Labour can change their electoral system, it's going to be completely undermined by the far left, just as much as it has been for the past two leadership elections. The nomination threshold is now 5%, so only 11 MPs needed to get on the ballot. Lapsed members will also be rejoining again now, in anticipation of a contest in the New Year that hasn't been officially called yet.
No, the nomination threshold is still 10% of MPs *but* a candidate also needs either - 5% of CLPs, or - nominations from at least three affiliates, of which at least two must be trade unions and which must comprise at least 5% of the affiliated membership (which in practice means the nomination of at least one of the big four unions).
These conditions will really limit who can get on, not least because all the nominations will probably have to be made simultaneously, so MPs won't know who CLPs and affiliates will back and vice versa. This creates the potential for a *lot* of wasted nominations where candidates fail to hit all the necessary thresholds.
It's not impossible in a crowded field that we could have the comedy outcome of no-one being validly elected.
FTSE up 100 points, pound up two cents against the dollar and to a ten year high against the Euro.
What are you smoking? GBP Vs EUR its back where it was after the Brexit vote, still well below 2015 levels.
No smoking anything, but I'll admit to drinking a bit! Champagne mostly.
You're right. My source was CNN who reported it wrong. It's a three year high vs the Euro, from Brexit referendum day. Pound is higher than it was ten years ago vs the Euro.
The pound is now only down 14% thanks to the cockeyed horseshittery of Brexit. Rejoice and praise the economic mastery of the People's Government!
The one bit of pre-election calculus I was most worried by was your analysis of the IPSOS leadership ratings, but I think I was right to point out that Boris' commitment to Brexit introduced a unique factor that wouldn't necessarily be reflected in conventional leadership ratings. I just didn't know how huge that effect would be!
Yes I think that was one factor. Although the error this time was about two SDs, there have been two errors of similar magnitude relative to the model, 92 and 79, both in the Tories' favour. The result this most resembles is 79, when the model was off but the polls were right. 92 was different because the model was off but the polls were off even more. I still think the model is basically sound and I still trust leader ratings more than the polls themselves.
Not only did Corbyn effect the Labour share but he also made it harder for the Lib Dems to pick up more seats by terrifying large amounts of pro EU Tories into sticking with the party .
See Winchester....the nutso manifesto clearly scared the shit out of voters there.
That brought a lump to my throat. Well said Caroline
Thing is, Owen Jones was right. There was simply no way out of the Leave/Remain conundrum for Lab. I don't for one minute think that it was only Brexit that did for Lab but there was simply no position that they could have taken on it which wouldn't have lost them votes and arguably only left them as compelled to become one part of an anti-Cons coalition rather than form a majority government.
Jones is completely wrong. The Tories were able to pick a side because thy knew that Tory Remainers would stay loyal for fear of Corbyn. With a different leader that option would not have possible and the conundrum would not have emerged. Brexit was a problem for Labour because it was intertwined with leadership failures.
Bloke in a chippy in Rother Valley: Kick all the Marxists out and go back to being a Labour Party
Look North should be compulsory viewing for Momentum today.
I don't think that they are interested in listening.
Heads further up their own backsides than before, solemnly listening to their own farts - despite a whacking great paddle on their posterior from the public in the provinces.
Unless something has changed that I missed.
This seems to be the mood on Twitter too - and while I accept that Twitter can be very unrepresentative, on questions like this, it's probably less so.
The Left stands a good chance of winning again.
Unless Labour can change their electoral system, it's going to be completely undermined by the far left, just as much as it has been for the past two leadership elections. The nomination threshold is now 5%, so only 11 MPs needed to get on the ballot. Lapsed members will also be rejoining again now, in anticipation of a contest in the New Year that hasn't been officially called yet.
No, the nomination threshold is still 10% of MPs *but* a candidate also needs either - 5% of CLPs, or - nominations from at least three affiliates, of which at least two must be trade unions and which must comprise at least 5% of the affiliated membership (which in practice means the nomination of at least one of the big four unions).
These conditions will really limit who can get on, not least because all the nominations will probably have to be made simultaneously, so MPs won't know who CLPs and affiliates will back and vice versa. This creates the potential for a *lot* of wasted nominations where candidates fail to hit all the necessary thresholds.
It's not impossible in a crowded field that we could have the comedy outcome of no-one being validly elected.
Didn't they change the 10% MP quota to 5% a couple of years ago at conference? Or am I still confused and need to ease back on the champagne a little?
Well it was a fun election and build up. I'm pleased I got con seats spot on to the exact number but disappointed in my constituency bets. I misread the SNP strength but I did expect the NE of scotland to be a little better for the blues as it proved. Time to step back from PB for a bit, not completely but posting much less often and concentrate on my physical and mental health, I've got far too wound up by everything and gone off half cocked more than once too often and life is too short. Hillary for labour if they want to be rid of momentum and all that gunk and get rid of the union influence. Otherwise its splitsville by summer. Have fun and play nice all and con gain Perth and north Perthshire 2024
What is truly damning is that only 6% were put off Labour and scuttled off to other parties because of their offer on the economy. To that 94% - are you out of your bloody minds???
Yes, but hardly surprising seeing as the Tories seems to have surrendered the pitch on economics to the Left.
On more important matters, how long do we need to give @Tissue_PriceMP to settle in before we can expect to be invited to the House of Commons Political Betting binge.
What is truly damning is that only 6% were put off Labour and scuttled off to other parties because of their offer on the economy. To that 94% - are you out of your bloody minds???
It is worrying - there needs to be a proper battle of ideas. Non statist and fiscally responsible left wing voices need to get stuck in to the delusional pile of crap that is current LP policy. The LP manifesto was not discussed in detail during the campaign IMO. Bear in mind though, that it could be that people put down their main reason?
Yes Layla Moran likely the LD members choice now as next leader, especially as unlike Ed Davey she was not an MP from 2010 to 2015 and this not tainted by the Coalition with the Tories in their eyes.
Swinson now likely to move to Holyrood to take on Sturgeon who was vocally cheering her loss on camera (albeit to be fair so were many Tories)
LOL, replace silly Willie and take charge of her handful of donkeys, bit difficult to do it from Bath I would say. Bad enough when their regional sockpuppets actually live in Scotland
Wings over Scotland seems to be able to rally the foot soldiers from Bath.
On more important matters, how long do we need to give @Tissue_PriceMP to settle in before we can expect to be invited to the House of Commons Political Betting binge.
Usually only weddings and funerals get me on a plane for non-work-related reasons, but I'll definitely be there for that one!
Bloke in a chippy in Rother Valley: Kick all the Marxists out and go back to being a Labour Party
Look North should be compulsory viewing for Momentum today.
I don't think that they are interested in listening.
Heads further up their own backsides than before, solemnly listening to their own farts - despite a whacking great paddle on their posterior from the public in the provinces.
Unless something has changed that I missed.
This seems to be the mood on Twitter too - and while I accept that Twitter can be very unrepresentative, on questions like this, it's probably less so.
The Left stands a good chance of winning again.
Unless Labour can change their electoral system, it's going to be completely undermined by the far left, just as much as it has been for the past two leadership elections. The nomination threshold is now 5%, so only 11 MPs needed to get on the ballot. Lapsed members will also be rejoining again now, in anticipation of a contest in the New Year that hasn't been officially called yet.
No, the nomination threshold is still 10% of MPs *but* a candidate also needs either - 5% of CLPs, or - nominations from at least three affiliates, of which at least two must be trade unions and which must comprise at least 5% of the affiliated membership (which in practice means the nomination of at least one of the big four unions).
These conditions will really limit who can get on, not least because all the nominations will probably have to be made simultaneously, so MPs won't know who CLPs and affiliates will back and vice versa. This creates the potential for a *lot* of wasted nominations where candidates fail to hit all the necessary thresholds.
It's not impossible in a crowded field that we could have the comedy outcome of no-one being validly elected.
Didn't they change the 10% MP quota to 5% a couple of years ago at conference? Or am I still confused and need to ease back on the champagne a little?
You are confused but only slightly. They reduced the MPs' nomination threshold from 15% to 10%.
See Chapter 4, clause II, rule 2B(i) - it's at the bottom of p.21 of the document / p.24 of the pdf.
FTSE up 100 points, pound up two cents against the dollar and to a ten year high against the Euro.
Goldman Sachs forecasting 150bill of business and foreign investment incoming and economy to be growing at an annual rate of 2.4% by end of 2020.
Yep, it's amazing what happens with a clear majority government of positivity, opportunity and in favour of commerce and business.
'fuck business'
People who are actually in business know where that quote came from*, and the difference between a Johnson government and a Corbyn government with regard to investment opportunities and business taxation.
*he was being harrassed for a response to the CBI putting out a very pro-EU statement on the eve of a crucial day of negotation with the EU. His private quote referred to organised business groups, rather than business in general. Maybe he should have said "f*** big business" instead?
I always thought he was referring to the Business Department because they were organising all these statements. After Clarke and Harrington left the dept it all stopped and the CBI basically did a u-turn as did the SMMT.
Yes, that could also be a fair account. What's definitely true is that his out-of-context quote wasn't intended to be a slur against commerce in general.
Whereas Corbyn's manifesto definitely was a massive slur against commerce in general!
I think it was an outburst and was intended as a slur against all commerce. And I think it's very funny. It's not indicative of policy.
I am fascinated what Team Boris were doing in the 7-10 days of the campaign in regards to the seats they visited. It is clear Team Corbyn were clueless eg. rallies in Bristol, but what were the Tories doing?
Bloke in a chippy in Rother Valley: Kick all the Marxists out and go back to being a Labour Party
Look North should be compulsory viewing for Momentum today.
I don't think that they are interested in listening.
Heads further up their own backsides than before, solemnly listening to their own farts - despite a whacking great paddle on their posterior from the public in the provinces.
Unless something has changed that I missed.
This seems to be the mood on Twitter too - and while I accept that Twitter can be very unrepresentative, on questions like this, it's probably less so.
The Left stands a good chance of winning again.
Unless Labour can change their electoral system, it's going to be completely undermined by the far left, just as much as it has been for the past two leadership elections. The nomination threshold is now 5%, so only 11 MPs needed to get on the ballot. Lapsed members will also be rejoining again now, in anticipation of a contest in the New Year that hasn't been officially called yet.
No, the nomination threshold is still 10% of MPs *but* a candidate also needs either - 5% of CLPs, or - nominations from at least three affiliates, of which at least two must be trade unions and which must comprise at least 5% of the affiliated membership (which in practice means the nomination of at least one of the big four unions).
These conditions will really limit who can get on, not least because all the nominations will probably have to be made simultaneously, so MPs won't know who CLPs and affiliates will back and vice versa. This creates the potential for a *lot* of wasted nominations where candidates fail to hit all the necessary thresholds.
It's not impossible in a crowded field that we could have the comedy outcome of no-one being validly elected.
Didn't they change the 10% MP quota to 5% a couple of years ago at conference? Or am I still confused and need to ease back on the champagne a little?
You are confused but only slightly. They reduced the MPs' nomination threshold from 15% to 10%.
See Chapter 4, clause II, rule 2B(i) - it's at the bottom of p.21 of the document / p.24 of the pdf.
Well it was a fun election and build up. I'm pleased I got con seats spot on to the exact number but disappointed in my constituency bets. I misread the SNP strength but I did expect the NE of scotland to be a little better for the blues as it proved. Time to step back from PB for a bit, not completely but posting much less often and concentrate on my physical and mental health, I've got far too wound up by everything and gone off half cocked more than once too often and life is too short. Hillary for labour if they want to be rid of momentum and all that gunk and get rid of the union influence. Otherwise its splitsville by summer. Have fun and play nice all and con gain Perth and north Perthshire 2024
On more important matters, how long do we need to give @Tissue_PriceMP to settle in before we can expect to be invited to the House of Commons Political Betting binge.
I am informed on the quiet that our new member for Totnes is not averse to a modest political flutter from time to time. I'll see if I can get him to pop along.....
My understanding is that the Boundaries Commissions under the current legislation start again in 2021 with the December 2020 electorate as their base line. Their report would be due in October 2013. Probably not quite enough time for the next May 2024 election.
So the Government could put forward again the existing boundary proposals, or change the legislation to bring forward the next review.
Corbyn Cultist on Sky still trying to claim nothing wrong with Saint Jezza, was the medja wat done it.
Um, the left don't want to lose control of the Labour party brand - they just haven't worked out how to keep control yet so it's a holding pattern while discussions take place (and the unworthy are taken out the back and removed from the equation).
FTSE up 100 points, pound up two cents against the dollar and to a ten year high against the Euro.
What are you smoking? GBP Vs EUR its back where it was after the Brexit vote, still well below 2015 levels.
No smoking anything, but I'll admit to drinking a bit! Champagne mostly.
You're right. My source was CNN who reported it wrong. It's a three year high vs the Euro, from Brexit referendum day. Pound is higher than it was ten years ago vs the Euro.
The pound is now only down 14% thanks to the cockeyed horseshittery of Brexit. Rejoice and praise the economic mastery of the People's Government!
A decade ago, the pound was 1.10 vs the Euro. Today, it's 1.20, that's 9% to the good.
A decade ago we were in the midst of the biggest financial crisis since WW2 and GBP had sold off massively against the USD in common with a lot of other currencies in the mother of all risk off moves, so it's hardly a neutral comparison.
You will set me off again...I have only just about calmed down after last night, not the result, getting the live web scraper up and running (and keeping it running). I think I added a good degree to good warming given the heat coming out of me PC.
Yes I think that was one factor. Although the error this time was about two SDs, there have been two errors of similar magnitude relative to the model, 92 and 79, both in the Tories' favour. The result this most resembles is 79, when the model was off but the polls were right. 92 was different because the model was off but the polls were off even more. I still think the model is basically sound and I still trust leader ratings more than the polls themselves.
Leader ratings 2 months before the election still work. In campaign clearly diverged though - I said this here a few weeks back, so not hindsight talking :-)
Not only did Corbyn effect the Labour share but he also made it harder for the Lib Dems to pick up more seats by terrifying large amounts of pro EU Tories into sticking with the party .
See Winchester....the nutso manifesto clearly scared the shit out of voters there.
Also Cheltenham.
Didn't see either going LibDem for that very reason. Both seats honorary members of the SW club! (We're going to have work on moving Bath to SW London.....)
I hope the Tories take this opportunity to do some radical things in terms of taxation reform e.g lets work out how to NI / IC combined.
£70bn of tax revenue is hidden in employers NI - they aren't going to reform NI as it's just too painful and would result in OAPs paying more.
You can make it so OAPs don't. What you can do is also make it so low paid get taken out of it and upper earners pay a bit more. Get it done in the next year, nobody will remember by 2024 and it is good for the long run.
That brought a lump to my throat. Well said Caroline
Thing is, Owen Jones was right. There was simply no way out of the Leave/Remain conundrum for Lab. I don't for one minute think that it was only Brexit that did for Lab but there was simply no position that they could have taken on it which wouldn't have lost them votes and arguably only left them as compelled to become one part of an anti-Cons coalition rather than form a majority government.
Jones is completely wrong. The Tories were able to pick a side because thy knew that Tory Remainers would stay loyal for fear of Corbyn. With a different leader that option would not have possible and the conundrum would not have emerged. Brexit was a problem for Labour because it was intertwined with leadership failures.
Hmmm. David Lammy on Sky being as gormless as ever ... slightly slower growth is apparently a huge drop in GDP, without any realisation that different measures can be taken.
Gertjan Vlieghe, a member of the Bank of England monetary policy committee, said that since the vote in June 2016 [to start 2019], the economy had lost about 2% of GDP compared with a scenario where there had been no significant domestic economic events.
“That 2% of GDP is not trivial, that’s £40bn or if you prefer it in bus units, it’s £800m a week.”
I hope the Tories take this opportunity to do some radical things in terms of taxation reform e.g lets work out how to NI / IC combined.
Don't hold your breath
If they can leave the EU, work out how to throw money at the North quickly enough for people to notice, sort boundaries and make sure the Supreme court remember where the real power lies, by the time they've done that it'll be time to think about 2024.
i think the yougov welsh poll deserves a special mention for its accuracy.
I'll leave it to Roger Awan-Sully to blow his own trumpet here
"I think even the fiercest critics of polling would have to say that the match between our final Barometer poll and the actual election outcome in Wales is astonishingly close"
Hmmm. David Lammy on Sky being as gormless as ever ... slightly slower growth is apparently a huge drop in GDP, without any realisation that different measures can be taken.
Gertjan Vlieghe, a member of the Bank of England monetary policy committee, said that since the vote in June 2016 [to start 2019], the economy had lost about 2% of GDP compared with a scenario where there had been no significant domestic economic events.
“That 2% of GDP is not trivial, that’s £40bn or if you prefer it in bus units, it’s £800m a week.”
The more worrying, if entirely predictable, bit:
He said business investment in Britain had been stuck around zero, with a drop of 3.7% in 2018, despite an upswing worth about 6% annually in the rest of the G7.
Don't expect investment to rebound now Johnson is in charge.
Hmmm. David Lammy on Sky being as gormless as ever ... slightly slower growth is apparently a huge drop in GDP, without any realisation that different measures can be taken.
Gertjan Vlieghe, a member of the Bank of England monetary policy committee, said that since the vote in June 2016 [to start 2019], the economy had lost about 2% of GDP compared with a scenario where there had been no significant domestic economic events.
“That 2% of GDP is not trivial, that’s £40bn or if you prefer it in bus units, it’s £800m a week.”
It's just embarrassingly partisan rubbish though. We've outperformed comparable economies since 2016. The idea there has been a big Brexit cost to economic growth relies on a fantasy trend line that isn't being achieved by anyone anymore.
Yes Layla Moran likely the LD members choice now as next leader, especially as unlike Ed Davey she was not an MP from 2010 to 2015 and this not tainted by the Coalition with the Tories in their eyes.
Swinson now likely to move to Holyrood to take on Sturgeon who was vocally cheering her loss on camera (albeit to be fair so were many Tories)
LOL, replace silly Willie and take charge of her handful of donkeys, bit difficult to do it from Bath I would say. Bad enough when their regional sockpuppets actually live in Scotland
Wings over Scotland seems to be able to rally the foot soldiers from Bath.
Slight difference between a blogger and leader of a political party. Do you suggest Guido could run England.
There is some saving to be made in getting rid of VED, adding it on to fuel duty (where nobody will notice it, and it is fairer), and having insurance connected to the issuing of an MOT.
The only drawback is in its strength - it will make a whole heap of civil servants in Wales unemployed.
But if another form of employment could be found for those people, such as RBS hiring them as their new UK call centre, that would work.
Not only did Corbyn effect the Labour share but he also made it harder for the Lib Dems to pick up more seats by terrifying large amounts of pro EU Tories into sticking with the party .
Has there ever been anyone more effective at getting the Tory vote out than Corbyn?
Hmmm. David Lammy on Sky being as gormless as ever ... slightly slower growth is apparently a huge drop in GDP, without any realisation that different measures can be taken.
Gertjan Vlieghe, a member of the Bank of England monetary policy committee, said that since the vote in June 2016 [to start 2019], the economy had lost about 2% of GDP compared with a scenario where there had been no significant domestic economic events.
“That 2% of GDP is not trivial, that’s £40bn or if you prefer it in bus units, it’s £800m a week.”
The more worrying, if entirely predictable, bit:
He said business investment in Britain had been stuck around zero, with a drop of 3.7% in 2018, despite an upswing worth about 6% annually in the rest of the G7.
Don't expect investment to rebound now Johnson is in charge.
There is some saving to be made in getting rid of VED, adding it on to fuel duty (where nobody will notice it, and it is fairer), and having insurance connected to the issuing of an MOT.
The only drawback is in its strength - it will make a whole heap of civil servants in Wales unemployed.
But if another form of employment could be found for those people, such as RBS hiring them as their new UK call centre, that would work.
I hope the Tories have sense to get the Behavioural Insight Team back on board. The nudge unit stuff using evidence based policies.
There is some saving to be made in getting rid of VED, adding it on to fuel duty (where nobody will notice it, and it is fairer), and having insurance connected to the issuing of an MOT.
The only drawback is in its strength - it will make a whole heap of civil servants in Wales unemployed.
But if another form of employment could be found for those people, such as RBS hiring them as their new UK call centre, that would work.
And how does that work as cars move towards electric?
Really pleased Alex Chalk held on in Cheltenham. I know that he was feared by Downing Street to be one of the expected casualties of the December election, and there was considerable sadness at the thought of him leaving Parliament. That result would have got one of the loudest cheers of the night from Boris.
Comments
Camborne and Redruth - Labour still 8,700 votes behind. St. Austell and Newquay 16,500 behind. SE Cornwall was a 21,000 majority over Labour. LibDems nowhere in any of these. The LibDem brand has been Ratnerised in the SW with the Swinson/Revoke combo. That's going to take some coming back from.
LibDem until 2015, Torbay now has a Conservative majority of 18,000. In Totnes I was delighted that the Tory vote was actually larger than then-Conservative Sarah Wollaston achieved in 2017. Watch out for Anthony Mangnall - only 30, he could go places.
The much-touted independent in Devon East lost by 6,700 votes. As I suggested, there was no-one left to squeeze.
When will they get it through their thick heads that Northerners see it as London types calling them thick racist leavers (yet again).
Trying to blame last nights horror show on Brexit is totally deluded by some Labour MPs and commentators . A better leader with a more credible manifesto would have had a chance .
Not only did Corbyn effect the Labour share but he also made it harder for the Lib Dems to pick up more seats by terrifying large amounts of pro EU Tories into sticking with the party .
And to be blunt the current Labour shambles could learn a thing or two from Blair . Yes he made a disastrous error on Iraq which will always taint his leadership but he won 3 elections .
It’s pointless having some laudible policies if they never have a chance of being put into place .
Either Labour want to get into government or they want to navel gaze and live in an echo chamber . Unless they start appealing to older voters again then they’ve got zip chance of winning .
I’m desperately disappointed as a Labour supporter to see the Tories get in for another 5 years .
I’m not angry at Labour voters in the north and the Midlands for going over to the Tories I’m angry at Labour and Corbyn for making that possible .
Many Labour friends and myself voted for them inspite of Corbyn and when that happens you’re never going to win an election . Because you’re never going to have enough people in the wider public holding their nose and doing the same .
Anyway that’s my rant over with !
Oh you scruffy tw@t, listen to me, I don't want any more of your s##t for the next 5 years, I have enough on my plate with Andrew.
Whereas Corbyn's manifesto definitely was a massive slur against commerce in general!
I really hope that Boris puts some serious people in position to do some proper thinking about this. Let Boris do stupid stunts and leave the hard stuff to Gove and a team of people willing to look at evidence based policy.
Seem to remember that last time they took several days.
Have fun and play nice all and con gain Perth and north Perthshire 2024
- 5% of CLPs, or
- nominations from at least three affiliates, of which at least two must be trade unions and which must comprise at least 5% of the affiliated membership (which in practice means the nomination of at least one of the big four unions).
These conditions will really limit who can get on, not least because all the nominations will probably have to be made simultaneously, so MPs won't know who CLPs and affiliates will back and vice versa. This creates the potential for a *lot* of wasted nominations where candidates fail to hit all the necessary thresholds.
It's not impossible in a crowded field that we could have the comedy outcome of no-one being validly elected.
A tragic loss to Parliament... #zoomer
Jeremy Corbyn: ‘I did everything I could to lead Labour'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50784811
See Chapter 4, clause II, rule 2B(i) - it's at the bottom of p.21 of the document / p.24 of the pdf.
https://labour.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Rule-Book-2019.pdf
(Goes to fridge for another bottle of the sparkling stuff, signing out of here for the night...)
Crickey even Fat Head is getting pissed off with her now...and he is definitely not a friend of the Tories.
So the Government could put forward again the existing boundary proposals, or change the legislation to bring forward the next review.
They still are mate.
“That 2% of GDP is not trivial, that’s £40bn or if you prefer it in bus units, it’s £800m a week.”
If they can leave the EU, work out how to throw money at the North quickly enough for people to notice, sort boundaries and make sure the Supreme court remember where the real power lies, by the time they've done that it'll be time to think about 2024.
I'll leave it to Roger Awan-Sully to blow his own trumpet here
"I think even the fiercest critics of polling would have to say that the match between our final Barometer poll and the actual election outcome in Wales is astonishingly close"
https://blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/2019/12/13/how-did-the-welsh-political-barometer-perform-in-2019/
He said business investment in Britain had been stuck around zero, with a drop of 3.7% in 2018, despite an upswing worth about 6% annually in the rest of the G7.
Don't expect investment to rebound now Johnson is in charge.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v6rj8-_9aZI
....of a high building in central Moscow!
The only drawback is in its strength - it will make a whole heap of civil servants in Wales unemployed.
But if another form of employment could be found for those people, such as RBS hiring them as their new UK call centre, that would work.
✊
Corbyn, Brexit, Racism & a Marxist manifesto, the rest was fine.
Ahem, for those who prefer the politically incorrect stuff (by me):
https://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/product/B00GCAF2CI/