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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Swinson’s successor needs to be someone untainted by the coali
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Swinson’s successor needs to be someone untainted by the coalition and that can only be Layla Moran
The first post General Election next leader betting market has now opened and that is on, of course, who should succeed Jo Swinson as the next Lib Dem leader.
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The LibDems are about to make another dreadful mistake.
The last paragraph is a little economical with the truth: "Layla withdrew from the race on the grounds that she was a relatively new MP".
I think we all know why she withdrew!
I'd wait and see Labour's response. If they split, the opportunities and landscape will be very different
The LibDems should also (if necessary) look outside their small pool of MPs (changing their rules if need be).
(Daisy Cooper - feels like a name I've heard, but apparently not. for example)
I think the LDs have no good choices as it stands.
However. Would be a heck of a gamble...
Swinson now likely to move to Holyrood to take on Sturgeon who was vocally cheering her loss on camera (albeit to be fair so were many Tories)
As late as 2010 half of LD MP's came from Rural areas.
How on earth can an MP from Oxford get the Rural vote?
Poor Jo Swinson (sorry, cough, Prime Minister Jo Swinson). You go into an election that looks to have great conditions all aligned for you from the start. You are snapping at the heels of the Labour Party. For the first time since before the coalition you are genuinely enthused and energised. Only for you to end up like this.
A clusterf**k of epic proportions. They should write books on what went wrong.
The problem was not the LD membership of the coalition: it was the Lib Dems' attitude to their membership of it (which began when they were actually in it).
The Lib Dems should be proud of their achievements in coalition - Ed Davey in particular can point to a lot of impressive achievements in the development of green energy this decade - rather than feeling guilty and defensive all the time.
But to be honest, the coalition already feels a political lifetime ago and that sense can only increase over the next few years. Those who will blame the Lib Dems in 2024 for the decisions taken in 2010 are probably unwinnable whatever the party does.
By contrast, this year's polls showed that 20% or more of the electorate are already willing to (re)consider the Yellows. That's a good, solid base.
To my mind, what they need is someone who looks more grown-up and more sensible than either Johnson or whoever replaces Corbyn - which is to say, Ed Davey.
On topic, Moran seems fine.
He switched the picture.
(Still not great, but people are not always photogenic)
The Coalition has been the best government we've had in a decade (or more) - and well, what's next - who knows?
I honestly think that will hang over her heavily, though may not stop her winning the leadership race. Had it been a man, her career would be finished after being arrested for physically assaulting her partner. There's a moral clarity to the argument "if you're all about equality, why doesn't that apply to women too?" Obviously there are nuances about the individual situation (there was no prosecution; although she struck him first she claims she was in fear that he might have hit her) and whether male-female violence is asymmetric (males physically stronger, more likely to kill partners etc). But even if anyone thinks those nuances are worth making, as soon as you have to start out by defending that kind of thing then you're losing.
Wouldn't entirely surprise me given the poor judgement LDs have shown in leadership selection if they end up picking her for leader because she appeals to something in their downhearted activists, and the ONE THING that the general public will "know"/think about her is that she's "a hypocritical domestic abuser" (I think senior politicians get at most 3-5 THINGS that the public know about them, but if you're leader of the Lib Dems and they're on less-seats-than-you-can-count-on-fingers-and-toes, then you'll largely have to make do with the one) and it cocks up their next election as well.
In the end, that's similar to the Swinson problem isn't it? Aside from being known as "Scottish" and "new", wasn't her ONE THING that she had DONE THE EVIL TORY CUTS. And yes she could argue/explain/justify why she did what she did in the Coalition years (though like a batter caught in two minds between playing on the front foot or the back, I'm not sure she ever hit the right note between assertively proud and defensively apologetic) but given the target demographic she was facing, if she was explaining then she was losing. (Though weirdly she claimed to be running to be PM and on a ticket of unrealistically beyond-prudential Lib Dem ultra-austerity, so if she was pussy-footing around nervous of being tainted with the Curse of the Cleggeron Coalition, goodness knows where she thought she was going to get 30%+ of the national vote from.) If Moran becomes leader, she is going to have to appear credible - even if just in the role of fightback organiser rather than a supposed alternative PM - on issues like gender equality and violent crime, and when she pronounces on them I'm afraid the spectre of this incident is going to rematerialise. If she's explaining, or anyone's even mentioning, she's losing.
Look North should be compulsory viewing for Momentum today.
The LD have almost the same number of seats in London as in their 2005 peak.
But they've lost almost ALL seats outside of London.
How can the liberals appeal to people outside that small circle ?
Are we sure the answer to this question is Layla Moran ?
Or is the future LD strategy simply to double down on London and hope to win an extra 2-3 seats ?
They were so popular they all lost in one go.
Chuka couldn't even win the seat with the most favourable demographics at the most favourable time.
Also, though I`m a fellow LibDem, I disagree with Mike on this: LibDems should be proud of their time in government. They are sadly abandoning Orange Book liberalism. So I`ll be rooting for Davey again but it`s along way back from here.
On the subject of women leaders, I`m obvs not saying that I am opposed, but the greatest favour the Lab Party can do for the Tories now (as if they hadn`t already done enough) is to go for a female leader - and I think they will: Rebecca Long-Bailey.
It was unthinking reactionary stupidity. On the plus side, they've got to realise the error of their ways well before most of the other stupid reactionaries.
LOL.
Who says the Tories aren't fiscally prudent?
I look forward to seeing an analysis of their targets after the dust has settled.
Many Lab voters might find it difficult to back someone who was in coalition with the Cons (but maybe not, many former Labour voters just voted for Johnson, apparently). Without that I'd go for Davey - and would have last time, too.
1) there were far many more of them than there were of you and
2) THEY PAID YOUR F*CKING WAGES.
They didn't like it, but it did them good.
Labour Leave voters voted Tory last night, it is Labour and Tory Remainers the LDs will target
Look at the former LD heartland of the SW - only 1 measly MP in Bath, while falling 16,000 votes behind in the likes of Yeovil. Now 15,000 votes behind in North Devon (who could have guessed that picking a candidate that insulted the voters would go badly). Also going backwards in the likes of Cornwall North and Torbay.
Wells is the leave seat the LDs are closest in and they are behind nearly 10,000 votes
Glad Raab scraped home too, so well done for your efforts there in Esher and Walton
Perhaps working out why they aren't proud might be a more fruitful activity.
There is a gap for a new Social Democratic centre-left party ... the problem for them is, Johnson is going to park his tanks all over that lawn - socially liberal and fiscally sensible.
My pipe dream for this GE was the annihilation of Labour and the emergence of the LDs as the challenger party to the Tories. Didn`t work out too well.
https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1205484397908107266?s=20
The SDP have absolutely no cut through and are an irrelevance
UKIP are now finished, I think they broke 1000 in one NE seat only
The English Democrats and BNP are finished too
The Yorkshire Party might become a minor player in any regional assembly