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SystemSystem Posts: 12,685
edited December 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Swinson’s successor needs to be someone untainted by the coalition and that can only be Layla Moran

The first post General Election next leader betting market has now opened and that is on, of course, who should succeed Jo Swinson as the next Lib Dem leader.

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Comments

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    Terrible photo.
  • camelcamel Posts: 815
    Lovely Layla, bet she makes great hummus.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    Should the Lib Dem’s carry on as is or is now the time to go further, rebrand and truly start over.
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,924
    Might have been more of a runner if she hadn't decked her partner.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    The LibDems are about to make another dreadful mistake.

    The last paragraph is a little economical with the truth: "Layla withdrew from the race on the grounds that she was a relatively new MP".

    I think we all know why she withdrew!
  • RobinWiggsRobinWiggs Posts: 621
    I don't wish to be uncharitable, but does it really matter?

    I'd wait and see Labour's response. If they split, the opportunities and landscape will be very different
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    RobinWiggs said:

    I don't wish to be uncharitable, but does it really matter?

    I'd wait and see Labour's response. If they split, the opportunities and landscape will be very different

    That is a good point.

    The LibDems should also (if necessary) look outside their small pool of MPs (changing their rules if need be).
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,947
    Does the header count as a nod from you Mike?

    (Daisy Cooper - feels like a name I've heard, but apparently not. for example)

    I think the LDs have no good choices as it stands.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,998
    Moran is an uber-geek. As a "let your freak flag fly" kind of person I approve.

    However. Would be a heck of a gamble...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,285
    edited December 2019
    Yes Layla Moran likely the LD members choice now as next leader, especially as unlike Ed Davey she was not an MP from 2010 to 2015 and this not tainted by the Coalition with the Tories in their eyes.

    Swinson now likely to move to Holyrood to take on Sturgeon who was vocally cheering her loss on camera (albeit to be fair so were many Tories)
  • RobinWiggsRobinWiggs Posts: 621
    Will we get a similarly prominent header about the DUP Westminster leader vacancy? They're not much smaller then the LibDems in MP numbers.
  • PaulMPaulM Posts: 613
    Jonathan said:

    Terrible photo.

    It really is isn't it. And this is in a piece supporting her. She looks unhinged.
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    Should I make an intervention here?

    As late as 2010 half of LD MP's came from Rural areas.

    How on earth can an MP from Oxford get the Rural vote?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,391
    wooliedyed said:

    I'm wondering if Corbyn will hang on until the EHRC report then quit?

    Maybe, although I don't know what difference it would make - let's say it is a really terrible report and even were to say he himself is an antisemite(obviously the report won't be so blunt as all that, it might not even be as damning as people think, but for sake of argument), it's quite clear Corbyn is incapable of accepting he has any flaws in policy or personality, so why would he choose to go at that point?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,391
    RobinWiggs said:

    Will we get a similarly prominent header about the DUP Westminster leader vacancy? They're not much smaller then the LibDems in MP numbers.

    The DUP will now be invisible again for 5 years, except when people periodically remember Northern Ireland exists and decide to very solemnly say that things need to change there, then do nothing.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    Might have been more of a runner if she hadn't decked her partner.

    Compared with Johnson's colourful history that is very minor.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 14,273
    Have we yet got a breakdown of corbynite vs moderate labour MPs?
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 8,062
    RochdalePioneers said:

    Moran is an uber-geek. As a "let your freak flag fly" kind of person I approve.

    However. Would be a heck of a gamble...

    Can’t do much worse at this stage. If you’d told me 24 hours ago that the Lib Dem’s would have fewer MPs than last time Id have laughed in your face.

    Poor Jo Swinson (sorry, cough, Prime Minister Jo Swinson). You go into an election that looks to have great conditions all aligned for you from the start. You are snapping at the heels of the Labour Party. For the first time since before the coalition you are genuinely enthused and energised. Only for you to end up like this.

    A clusterf**k of epic proportions. They should write books on what went wrong.
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046
    What are the LD seats ranked by majority?
  • camelcamel Posts: 815
    The LibDems put on a million votes. Not great, but something to work with.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,948
    HYUFD said:

    Yes Layla Moran likely the LD members choice now as next leader, especially as unlike Ed Davey she was not an MP from 2010 to 2015 and this not tainted by the Coalition with the Tories in their eyes.

    Swinson now likely to move to Holyrood to take on Sturgeon who was vocally cheering her loss on camera (albeit to be fair so were many Tories)

    Thank f... it won't be Chuka up next for the LDs.
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046
    RobinWiggs said:

    I don't wish to be uncharitable, but does it really matter?

    I'd wait and see Labour's response. If they split, the opportunities and landscape will be very different

    Let's hope so. The Tories already have in effect - though by purging. LAbour haven't done the bloodletting yet.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,716
    edited December 2019
    FPT:
    Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:

    Moment of sympathy for the middle class WASPI women who have been denied their enormous bung funded by the working class.

    That pledge was disgraceful tbh.
    Yes. They even had a calculator on their website to work out how much you'd get. Presumably in a big fat brown envelope.
  • OysterOctopusOysterOctopus Posts: 29
    PaulM said:

    Jonathan said:

    Terrible photo.

    She looks unhinged.
    Compared to the EU beret-wearing brigade outside Waitrose for the past few months, I'd say she looks relatively normal...for a Lib Dem.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    HYUFD said:

    Yes Layla Moran likely the LD members choice now as next leader, especially as unlike Ed Davey she was not an MP from 2010 to 2015 and this not tainted by the Coalition with the Tories in their eyes.

    Swinson now likely to move to Holyrood to take on Sturgeon who was vocally cheering her loss on camera (albeit to be fair so were many Tories)

    Swinson did a remarkably ungracious loser’s speech though. Sturgeon, though equally charmless, was just a reflection of the other.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,392
    That picture makes Jo Swinson look normal. Are they in danger of repeating the same mistake?
  • isamisam Posts: 42,632
    Moran is even more annoying than Swinson. Have they got any normal people who are MPs? How many did they get btw? I backed 10-19 at 4/1 and 0-9 at 12s
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,924
    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yes Layla Moran likely the LD members choice now as next leader, especially as unlike Ed Davey she was not an MP from 2010 to 2015 and this not tainted by the Coalition with the Tories in their eyes.

    Swinson now likely to move to Holyrood to take on Sturgeon who was vocally cheering her loss on camera (albeit to be fair so were many Tories)

    Thank f... it won't be Chuka up next for the LDs.
    Shame it isn't Luciana.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,271
    Layla Moran is that rare breed of politician that does human, like Charlie Kennedy before her. Lib Dems could do worse at this point, and probably would given their very limited MP gene pool
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,998
    camel said:

    The LibDems put on a million votes. Not great, but something to work with.

    This. And 2nd in 104 seats. Many of them very close. Yes that doesn't matter under FPTP but it does give you a platform to build on - especially if Labour descend further into the gutter and elect another nutter.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Jonathan said:

    Terrible photo.

    I've replaced it
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,391
    Not that is was much of a surprise, but it's crazy how Labour went from increasing their vote in Finchley and Golders Green in 2017 despite Corbyn, to dropping 20%.

    On topic, Moran seems fine.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,578
    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yes Layla Moran likely the LD members choice now as next leader, especially as unlike Ed Davey she was not an MP from 2010 to 2015 and this not tainted by the Coalition with the Tories in their eyes.

    Swinson now likely to move to Holyrood to take on Sturgeon who was vocally cheering her loss on camera (albeit to be fair so were many Tories)

    Thank f... it won't be Chuka up next for the LDs.
    it wasn't a good night for any of the defector/splitter MPs.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    camel said:

    The LibDems put on a million votes. Not great, but something to work with.

    Good point, and they also now have a heartland of adjoining seats - leafy south west London and north Surrey.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,947
    Damn - Mike is a fan

    He switched the picture.

    (Still not great, but people are not always photogenic)
  • isamisam Posts: 42,632
    FF43 said:

    Layla Moran is that rare breed of politician that does human, like Charlie Kennedy before her. Lib Dems could do worse at this point, and probably would given their very limited MP gene pool

    She looks and sounds like an absolute crackpot to me. Takes all sorts, but I can’t imagine anyone I know thinking of her as a ‘rare breed that does human’
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    "Untainted"?

    The Coalition has been the best government we've had in a decade (or more) - and well, what's next - who knows?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    The Lib Dems would do well to stop and think for a while. They've made bad choices for both the last two election campaigns. "Who" should be the last question and arise naturally from "What" and "How".
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 14,273
    Swinson claiming she could be PM is perhaps the most embarrassing bit of political hubris ever
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,391
    isam said:

    Moran is even more annoying than Swinson. Have they got any normal people who are MPs? How many did they get btw? I backed 10-19 at 4/1 and 0-9 at 12s

    First you have the problem most people who want to become MPs are not normal, in good and bad ways, then add in that they are Liberal Democrats, which despite my voting for them is a pretty niche position to say the least.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,895
    The Coalition feels like a lifetime ago. They should go for the best option, not make the main factor whether they were in Parliament 2010-15.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,948
    david_herdson said:

    I'm afraid I don't agree with this - though perhaps my view of the Coalition govt as the best of my lifetime that I can remember colours my view.

    The problem was not the LD membership of the coalition: it was the Lib Dems' attitude to their membership of it (which began when they were actually in it).

    The Lib Dems should be proud of their achievements in coalition - Ed Davey in particular can point to a lot of impressive achievements in the development of green energy this decade - rather than feeling guilty and defensive all the time.

    But to be honest, the coalition already feels a political lifetime ago and that sense can only increase over the next few years. Those who will blame the Lib Dems in 2024 for the decisions taken in 2010 are probably unwinnable whatever the party does.

    By contrast, this year's polls showed that 20% or more of the electorate are already willing to (re)consider the Yellows. That's a good, solid base.

    To my mind, what they need is someone who looks more grown-up and more sensible than either Johnson or whoever replaces Corbyn - which is to say, Ed Davey.

    A hundred times this. LDs should have been proud of their record in government.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,387
    Bloke in a chippy in Rother Valley: Kick all the Marxists out and go back to being a Labour Party

    Look North should be compulsory viewing for Momentum today.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,947
    wooliedyed said:

    Swinson claiming she could be PM is perhaps the most embarrassing bit of political hubris ever

    McDonnell suggesting that the pound would have an uncontrollable rise if Labour were elected trumps that.
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    edited December 2019
    To put it another way.
    The LD have almost the same number of seats in London as in their 2005 peak.
    But they've lost almost ALL seats outside of London.

    How can the liberals appeal to people outside that small circle ?

    Are we sure the answer to this question is Layla Moran ?

    Or is the future LD strategy simply to double down on London and hope to win an extra 2-3 seats ?
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Morning all. Has PM Jo Swinson been to the palace yet?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,285
    edited December 2019
    spudgfsh said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yes Layla Moran likely the LD members choice now as next leader, especially as unlike Ed Davey she was not an MP from 2010 to 2015 and this not tainted by the Coalition with the Tories in their eyes.

    Swinson now likely to move to Holyrood to take on Sturgeon who was vocally cheering her loss on camera (albeit to be fair so were many Tories)

    Thank f... it won't be Chuka up next for the LDs.
    it wasn't a good night for any of the defector/splitter MPs.
    Chuka increased the LD vote by 19% in Cities of London and Westminster and Luciana Berger by 25% in Finchley and Golders Green while the LD vote only went up 4% nationally, even if they just failed to win their seats they both overtook Labour for second unlike Sam Gyimah
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,716
    SandyRentool said:

    Bloke in a chippy in Rother Valley: Kick all the Marxists out and go back to being a Labour Party

    Look North should be compulsory viewing for Momentum today.

    Can you get that in Islington?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,391
    CarlottaVance said:

    "Untainted"?

    The Coalition has been the best government we've had in a decade (or more) - and well, what's next - who knows?

    Not in the view of most of those voting LD, and most of those who might consider it, unfortunately.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 32,831
    OGH's fiver has panicked Shadsy. Now 7/4 not 7/1.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 14,273
    SandyRentool said:

    Bloke in a chippy in Rother Valley: Kick all the Marxists out and go back to being a Labour Party

    Look North should be compulsory viewing for Momentum today.

    Thats why they are hated. Betrayal.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 37,506
    I was expecting the LDs to get at least 20% at this election, and possibly more if they had a good campaign. How did their campaign go so wrong? They even managed to lose Carshalton & Wallington for the first time since 1992.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,392
    kle4 said:

    RobinWiggs said:

    Will we get a similarly prominent header about the DUP Westminster leader vacancy? They're not much smaller then the LibDems in MP numbers.

    The DUP will now be invisible again for 5 years, except when people periodically remember Northern Ireland exists and decide to very solemnly say that things need to change there, then do nothing.
    I don't think that there will be an extra billion for them in the budget, that's for sure. The Lib Dems were the turkeys who voted for Christmas par excellance but the stupidity of the DUP in blocking May's deal and keeping that hand in the till that fate had dealt them was truly epic.
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    edited December 2019
    HYUFD said:

    spudgfsh said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yes Layla Moran likely the LD members choice now as next leader, especially as unlike Ed Davey she was not an MP from 2010 to 2015 and this not tainted by the Coalition with the Tories in their eyes.

    Swinson now likely to move to Holyrood to take on Sturgeon who was vocally cheering her loss on camera (albeit to be fair so were many Tories)

    Thank f... it won't be Chuka up next for the LDs.
    it wasn't a good night for any of the defector/splitter MPs.
    Chuka increased the LD vote by 19% in Cities of London and Westminster and
    https://twitter.com/MarkDiStef/status/1205443466639089664
    They were so popular they all lost in one go.

    Chuka couldn't even win the seat with the most favourable demographics at the most favourable time.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,578
    david_herdson said:

    I'm afraid I don't agree with this - though perhaps my view of the Coalition govt as the best of my lifetime that I can remember colours my view.

    The problem was not the LD membership of the coalition: it was the Lib Dems' attitude to their membership of it (which began when they were actually in it).

    The Lib Dems should be proud of their achievements in coalition - Ed Davey in particular can point to a lot of impressive achievements in the development of green energy this decade - rather than feeling guilty and defensive all the time.

    But to be honest, the coalition already feels a political lifetime ago and that sense can only increase over the next few years. Those who will blame the Lib Dems in 2024 for the decisions taken in 2010 are probably unwinnable whatever the party does.

    By contrast, this year's polls showed that 20% or more of the electorate are already willing to (re)consider the Yellows. That's a good, solid base.

    To my mind, what they need is someone who looks more grown-up and more sensible than either Johnson or whoever replaces Corbyn - which is to say, Ed Davey.

    In spite of the number of seats today, there's a good platform for a good leader to build on. getting the right leader is the more important than what happened in the coalition years.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,619
    Could one conceivably have a bet on all the LD MP's? There aren't that many.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,948
    SandyRentool said:

    Bloke in a chippy in Rother Valley: Kick all the Marxists out and go back to being a Labour Party

    Look North should be compulsory viewing for Momentum today.

    The problem is that the top of the M25 is their definition of "North".
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 14,273
    She looks like the annoying one in a really bad sitcom. Go for it Lib Demmers.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    MyBurningEars said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-oxfordshire-47686844.

    Police called and two arrested because of "a slap". Really?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,948
    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:

    RobinWiggs said:

    Will we get a similarly prominent header about the DUP Westminster leader vacancy? They're not much smaller then the LibDems in MP numbers.

    The DUP will now be invisible again for 5 years, except when people periodically remember Northern Ireland exists and decide to very solemnly say that things need to change there, then do nothing.
    I don't think that there will be an extra billion for them in the budget, that's for sure. The Lib Dems were the turkeys who voted for Christmas par excellance but the stupidity of the DUP in blocking May's deal and keeping that hand in the till that fate had dealt them was truly epic.
    And they never actually got their billion, becauase the NI Parliament never sat to agree how to spend it.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,670
    RobD said:

    SandyRentool said:

    Bloke in a chippy in Rother Valley: Kick all the Marxists out and go back to being a Labour Party

    Look North should be compulsory viewing for Momentum today.

    Can you get that in Islington?
    I always thought those names were a bit daft and London-centric. If you're North or East (were there other Looks?) then Look North and Look East should be news/current affairs shows about the Scots and Dutch respectively. Still, I suppose Look Around You was already taken :wink: ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Look_Around_You )
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,947
    HoC will be a slightly poorer place without Carolone Flint.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,369
    edited December 2019
    isam said:

    Moran is even more annoying than Swinson. Have they got any normal people who are MPs? How many did they get btw? I backed 10-19 at 4/1 and 0-9 at 12s

    They should have gone for Ed Davey rather than Swinson. I`m sorry to say that by feeling the need to select a female leader, in accord with the zeitgeist, has done them no favours. They`ll be repeating the error if they go for Moran.

    Also, though I`m a fellow LibDem, I disagree with Mike on this: LibDems should be proud of their time in government. They are sadly abandoning Orange Book liberalism. So I`ll be rooting for Davey again but it`s along way back from here.

    On the subject of women leaders, I`m obvs not saying that I am opposed, but the greatest favour the Lab Party can do for the Tories now (as if they hadn`t already done enough) is to go for a female leader - and I think they will: Rebecca Long-Bailey.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:

    RobinWiggs said:

    Will we get a similarly prominent header about the DUP Westminster leader vacancy? They're not much smaller then the LibDems in MP numbers.

    The DUP will now be invisible again for 5 years, except when people periodically remember Northern Ireland exists and decide to very solemnly say that things need to change there, then do nothing.
    I don't think that there will be an extra billion for them in the budget, that's for sure. The Lib Dems were the turkeys who voted for Christmas par excellance but the stupidity of the DUP in blocking May's deal and keeping that hand in the till that fate had dealt them was truly epic.
    The DUP's stupidity started much earlier. Backing Brexit was an incomprehensibly stupid move for them. A party prioritising the continuance of the union should not be looking to throw all the pieces in the air, especially since Northern Ireland was going to be one of the problem areas.

    It was unthinking reactionary stupidity. On the plus side, they've got to realise the error of their ways well before most of the other stupid reactionaries.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,285
    edited December 2019
    speedy2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    spudgfsh said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yes Layla Moran likely the LD members choice now as next leader, especially as unlike Ed Davey she was not an MP from 2010 to 2015 and this not tainted by the Coalition with the Tories in their eyes.

    Swinson now likely to move to Holyrood to take on Sturgeon who was vocally cheering her loss on camera (albeit to be fair so were many Tories)

    Thank f... it won't be Chuka up next for the LDs.
    it wasn't a good night for any of the defector/splitter MPs.
    Chuka increased the LD vote by 19% in Cities of London and Westminster and
    https://twitter.com/MarkDiStef/status/1205443466639089664
    They were so popular they all lost in one go.

    Chuka couldn't even win the seat with the most favourable demographics at the most favourable time.
    CUK certainly no more but the LDs will be back, especially if Labour replace Corbyn with another hard left leader
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,716
    edited December 2019
    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:

    RobinWiggs said:

    Will we get a similarly prominent header about the DUP Westminster leader vacancy? They're not much smaller then the LibDems in MP numbers.

    The DUP will now be invisible again for 5 years, except when people periodically remember Northern Ireland exists and decide to very solemnly say that things need to change there, then do nothing.
    I don't think that there will be an extra billion for them in the budget, that's for sure. The Lib Dems were the turkeys who voted for Christmas par excellance but the stupidity of the DUP in blocking May's deal and keeping that hand in the till that fate had dealt them was truly epic.
    And they never actually got their billion, becauase the NI Parliament never sat to agree how to spend it.
    Oh dear.

    LOL.

    Who says the Tories aren't fiscally prudent?
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,578
    HYUFD said:

    spudgfsh said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yes Layla Moran likely the LD members choice now as next leader, especially as unlike Ed Davey she was not an MP from 2010 to 2015 and this not tainted by the Coalition with the Tories in their eyes.

    Swinson now likely to move to Holyrood to take on Sturgeon who was vocally cheering her loss on camera (albeit to be fair so were many Tories)

    Thank f... it won't be Chuka up next for the LDs.
    it wasn't a good night for any of the defector/splitter MPs.
    Chuka increased the LD vote by 19% in Cities of London and Westminster and Luciana Berger by 25% in Finchley and Golders Green while the LD vote only went up 4% nationally, even if they just failed to win their seats they both overtook Labour for second unlike Sam Gyimah
    he did personally but there'll not be another general election for the next 4 or 5 years so unless the right seat comes up as a by-elelction he'll be off doing something else. At the next election it'll be difficult to replicate.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 45,198
    wooliedyed said:

    Swinson claiming she could be PM is perhaps the most embarrassing bit of political hubris ever

    #Ruth4FM shortly behind it.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 14,273
    Omnium said:

    HoC will be a slightly poorer place without Carolone Flint.

    I'm mourning the loss of Mel Onn. Total fox.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,313
    HYUFD said:

    spudgfsh said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yes Layla Moran likely the LD members choice now as next leader, especially as unlike Ed Davey she was not an MP from 2010 to 2015 and this not tainted by the Coalition with the Tories in their eyes.

    Swinson now likely to move to Holyrood to take on Sturgeon who was vocally cheering her loss on camera (albeit to be fair so were many Tories)

    Thank f... it won't be Chuka up next for the LDs.
    it wasn't a good night for any of the defector/splitter MPs.
    Chuka increased the LD vote by 19% in Cities of London and Westminster and Luciana Berger by 25% in Finchley and Golders Green while the LD vote only went up 4% nationally, even if they just failed to win their seats they both overtook Labour for second unlike Sam Gyimah
    O/T I owe you a £10 charity bet as Labour did retain Canterbury. Where would you like it to go? Or I could make the donation to our Mayor's Charity (which is Mencap)?
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,087
    speedy2 said:

    To put it another way.
    The LD have almost the same number of seats in London as in their 2005 peak.
    But they've lost almost ALL seats outside of London.

    How can the liberals appeal to people outside that small circle ?

    Are we sure the answer to this question is Layla Moran ?

    Or is the future LD strategy simply to double down on London and hope to win an extra 2-3 seats ?

    I think you'd need to look at the near misses for the LibDems, e.g. Winchester and Cheltenham both missed by less than 1000 votes. Raab now has a 20,000 smaller majority (although I suppose that's near London.
    I look forward to seeing an analysis of their targets after the dust has settled.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,392
    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:

    RobinWiggs said:

    Will we get a similarly prominent header about the DUP Westminster leader vacancy? They're not much smaller then the LibDems in MP numbers.

    The DUP will now be invisible again for 5 years, except when people periodically remember Northern Ireland exists and decide to very solemnly say that things need to change there, then do nothing.
    I don't think that there will be an extra billion for them in the budget, that's for sure. The Lib Dems were the turkeys who voted for Christmas par excellance but the stupidity of the DUP in blocking May's deal and keeping that hand in the till that fate had dealt them was truly epic.
    And they never actually got their billion, becauase the NI Parliament never sat to agree how to spend it.
    That's what I thought but Arlene Fraser was claiming otherwise last night when she was being interviewed about mislaying her deputy.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,320
    speedy2 said:

    https://twitter.com/MarkDiStef/status/1205443466639089664
    They were so popular they all lost in one go.

    Chuka couldn't even win the seat with the most favourable demographics at the most favourable time.

    It's like those pictures of the Romanovs.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    'Tainted' or not, Ed Davey is the libs most capable guy, it seems to me.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,670
    Ontopic - Moran, not sure. She's got that slightly odd manner like Ed Milliband (and I say that as someone with a lot of time for him, although he didn't perform well as leader).

    Many Lab voters might find it difficult to back someone who was in coalition with the Cons (but maybe not, many former Labour voters just voted for Johnson, apparently). Without that I'd go for Davey - and would have last time, too.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,087
    MyBurningEars said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-oxfordshire-47686844

    I honestly think that will hang over her heavily, though may not stop her winning the leadership race. Had it been a man, her career would be finished after being arrested for physically assaulting her partner. There's a moral clarity to the argument "if you're all about equality, why doesn't that apply to women too?" Obviously there are nuances about the individual situation (there was no prosecution; although she struck him first she claims she was in fear that he might have hit her) and whether male-female violence is asymmetric (males physically stronger, more likely to kill partners etc). But even if anyone thinks those nuances are worth making, as soon as you have to start out by defending that kind of thing then you're losing.

    Wouldn't entirely surprise me given the poor judgement LDs have shown in leadership selection if they end up picking her for leader because she appeals to something in their downhearted activists, and the ONE THING that the general public will "know"/think about her is that she's "a hypocritical domestic abuser" (I think senior politicians get at most 3-5 THINGS that the public know about them, but if you're leader of the Lib Dems and they're on less-seats-than-you-can-count-on-fingers-and-toes, then you'll largely have to make do with the one) and it cocks up their next election as well.

    In the end, that's similar to the Swinson problem isn't it? Aside from being known as "Scottish" and "new", wasn't her ONE THING that she had DONE THE EVIL TORY CUTS. And yes she could argue/explain/justify why she did what she did in the Coalition years (though like a batter caught in two minds between playing on the front foot or the back, I'm not sure she ever hit the right note between assertively proud and defensively apologetic) but given the target demographic she was facing, if she was explaining then she was losing. (Though weirdly she claimed to be running to be PM and on a ticket of unrealistically beyond-prudential Lib Dem ultra-austerity, so if she was pussy-footing around nervous of being tainted with the Curse of the Cleggeron Coalition, goodness knows where she thought she was going to get 30%+ of the national vote from.) If Moran becomes leader, she is going to have to appear credible - even if just in the role of fightback organiser rather than a supposed alternative PM - on issues like gender equality and violent crime, and when she pronounces on them I'm afraid the spectre of this incident is going to rematerialise. If she's explaining, or anyone's even mentioning, she's losing.

    How many fingers and toes do you have?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    edited December 2019
    SandyRentool said:

    Bloke in a chippy in Rother Valley: Kick all the Marxists out and go back to being a Labour Party

    Look North should be compulsory viewing for Momentum today.

    Many moons ago I worked in consumer marketing - and we had lots of bright graduates who occasionally took a condescending view of their consumers - typically women who did the washing - I enjoyed reminding them that
    1) there were far many more of them than there were of you and
    2) THEY PAID YOUR F*CKING WAGES.
    They didn't like it, but it did them good.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,285
    edited December 2019
    Selebian said:

    Ontopic - Moran, not sure. She's got that slightly odd manner like Ed Milliband (and I say that as someone with a lot of time for him, although he didn't perform well as leader).

    Many Lab voters might find it difficult to back someone who was in coalition with the Cons (but maybe not, many former Labour voters just voted for Johnson, apparently). Without that I'd go for Davey - and would have last time, too.

    Being in the Coalition is the killer for Davey, which is why Moran will get it.

    Labour Leave voters voted Tory last night, it is Labour and Tory Remainers the LDs will target
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 37,506
    Is anyone prepared to call next year's US election for the incumbent?
  • glwglw Posts: 10,516
    david_herdson said:

    I'm afraid I don't agree with this - though perhaps my view of the Coalition govt as the best of my lifetime that I can remember colours my view.

    The problem was not the LD membership of the coalition: it was the Lib Dems' attitude to their membership of it (which began when they were actually in it).

    The Lib Dems should be proud of their achievements in coalition - Ed Davey in particular can point to a lot of impressive achievements in the development of green energy this decade - rather than feeling guilty and defensive all the time.

    I agree. Instead of celebrating their achievements and pointing to their experience in government the Lib Dems have acted embarassed and been apologetic. On top of that the Lib Dems have more or less said "we won't do that again," and when coalition is perhaps the only way Lib Dems will have power at a national level it is odd thing for them to rule it out.
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,924
    SandyRentool said:

    Bloke in a chippy in Rother Valley: Kick all the Marxists out and go back to being a Labour Party

    Look North should be compulsory viewing for Momentum today.

    They should run it on a loop with Election '97, until the penny drops.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    HYUFD said:

    StuartDickson said:

    RandallFlagg said:

    SLAB voters clearly going to the SNP in SNP-CON marginals.

    Well, just look at what Scots think of Boris: he is widely despised.
    So what, Catalans hated Rajoy
    Good afternoon Little Englanders! The above HY post is my take-away from UK GE 19. He and his daft buddies are about to bury the Union. Ta!
  • GarethoftheVale2GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 2,414
    The LDs need to find a way of making their peace with leavers. They spent 3 years belittling half the population (e.g. exotic spresm) and can only attract a quarter of the other half.

    Look at the former LD heartland of the SW - only 1 measly MP in Bath, while falling 16,000 votes behind in the likes of Yeovil. Now 15,000 votes behind in North Devon (who could have guessed that picking a candidate that insulted the voters would go badly). Also going backwards in the likes of Cornwall North and Torbay.

    Wells is the leave seat the LDs are closest in and they are behind nearly 10,000 votes
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,271
    isam said:

    FF43 said:

    Layla Moran is that rare breed of politician that does human, like Charlie Kennedy before her. Lib Dems could do worse at this point, and probably would given their very limited MP gene pool

    She looks and sounds like an absolute crackpot to me. Takes all sorts, but I can’t imagine anyone I know thinking of her as a ‘rare breed that does human’
    Her constituents seemed to like her. She converted a 2017 majority of 800 votes to a 9000 one. Other would be LD MPS can only dream,
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 14,273
    The 11 indie/chuk/ld/ind group guys can all join Rory Stewarts UK En Marche
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,285
    edited December 2019
    JohnO said:

    HYUFD said:

    spudgfsh said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yes Layla Moran likely the LD members choice now as next leader, especially as unlike Ed Davey she was not an MP from 2010 to 2015 and this not tainted by the Coalition with the Tories in their eyes.

    Swinson now likely to move to Holyrood to take on Sturgeon who was vocally cheering her loss on camera (albeit to be fair so were many Tories)

    Thank f... it won't be Chuka up next for the LDs.
    it wasn't a good night for any of the defector/splitter MPs.
    Chuka increased the LD vote by 19% in Cities of London and Westminster and Luciana Berger by 25% in Finchley and Golders Green while the LD vote only went up 4% nationally, even if they just failed to win their seats they both overtook Labour for second unlike Sam Gyimah
    O/T I owe you a £10 charity bet as Labour did retain Canterbury. Where would you like it to go? Or I could make the donation to our Mayor's Charity (which is Mencap)?
    Thanks for paying up and yes a donation to Mencap sounds a great idea.

    Glad Raab scraped home too, so well done for your efforts there in Esher and Walton
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,391
    CarlottaVance said:

    MyBurningEars said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-oxfordshire-47686844.

    Police called and two arrested because of "a slap". Really?
    Yes, why wouldn't they be? Nothing came out of it, so they adjudged it was not in the public interest to take it any further.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 45,198
    In 30 years time there will still be PB Tories telling the LDs that should be proud of their part in the coalition, despite the very fact of that coalition with a side order of Better Together's little helpers was what shafted them in 2015.

    Perhaps working out why they aren't proud might be a more fruitful activity.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,670
    logical_song said:

    MyBurningEars said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-oxfordshire-47686844

    I honestly think that will hang over her heavily, though may not stop her winning the leadership race. Had it been a man, her career would be finished after being arrested for physically assaulting her partner. There's a moral clarity to the argument "if you're all about equality, why doesn't that apply to women too?" Obviously there are nuances about the individual situation (there was no prosecution; although she struck him first she claims she was in fear that he might have hit her) and whether male-female violence is asymmetric (males physically stronger, more likely to kill partners etc). But even if anyone thinks those nuances are worth making, as soon as you have to start out by defending that kind of thing then you're losing.

    Wouldn't entirely surprise me given the poor judgement LDs have shown in leadership selection if they end up picking her for leader because she appeals to something in their downhearted activists, and the ONE THING that the general public will "know"/think about her is that she's "a hypocritical domestic abuser" (I think senior politicians get at most 3-5 THINGS that the public know about them, but if you're leader of the Lib Dems and they're on less-seats-than-you-can-count-on-fingers-and-toes, then you'll largely have to make do with the one) and it cocks up their next election as well.

    In the end, that's similar to the Swinson problem isn't it? Aside from being known as "Scottish" and "new", wasn't her ONE THING that she had DONE THE EVIL TORY CUTS. And yes she could argue/explain/justify why she did what she did in the Coalition years (though like a batter caught in two minds between playing on the front foot or the back, I'm not sure she ever hit the right note between assertively proud and defensively apologetic) but given the target demographic she was facing, if she was explaining then she was losing. (Though weirdly she claimed to be running to be PM and on a ticket of unrealistically beyond-prudential Lib Dem ultra-austerity, so if she was pussy-footing around nervous of being tainted with the Curse of the Cleggeron Coalition, goodness knows where she thought she was going to get 30%+ of the national vote from.) If Moran becomes leader, she is going to have to appear credible - even if just in the role of fightback organiser rather than a supposed alternative PM - on issues like gender equality and violent crime, and when she pronounces on them I'm afraid the spectre of this incident is going to rematerialise. If she's explaining, or anyone's even mentioning, she's losing.

    How many fingers and toes do you have?
    Don't want to assume @MyBurningEars physiology, but if it's 18 or 20, like most people (depending whether you count thumbs), that is sadly plenty to cover the current LD cohort.
  • ridaligoridaligo Posts: 174
    Jonathan said:

    Should the Lib Dem’s carry on as is or is now the time to go further, rebrand and truly start over.

    I think they have to do that, as do the moderate Labour MPs. The Lib Dems have a serious image problem and Labour is not getting it's party back from Momentum; they have a stranglehold and are fanatical.

    There is a gap for a new Social Democratic centre-left party ... the problem for them is, Johnson is going to park his tanks all over that lawn - socially liberal and fiscally sensible.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,742
    GarethoftheVale2 said:

    The LDs need to find a way of making their peace with leavers. They spent 3 years belittling half the population (e.g. exotic spresm) and can only attract a quarter of the other half.

    Look at the former LD heartland of the SW - only 1 measly MP in Bath, while falling 16,000 votes behind in the likes of Yeovil. Now 15,000 votes behind in North Devon (who could have guessed that picking a candidate that insulted the voters would go badly). Also going backwards in the likes of Cornwall North and Torbay.

    Wells is the leave seat the LDs are closest in and they are behind nearly 10,000 votes

    The reconciliation can happen after Brexit is done. Nobody regrets or responds well to "I told you so" until after the crap thing happens.
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,924
    Good thing I laid in a hundredweight of snacks to see me through the Labour civil war.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,369
    kle4 said:

    isam said:

    Moran is even more annoying than Swinson. Have they got any normal people who are MPs? How many did they get btw? I backed 10-19 at 4/1 and 0-9 at 12s

    First you have the problem most people who want to become MPs are not normal, in good and bad ways, then add in that they are Liberal Democrats, which despite my voting for them is a pretty niche position to say the least.
    Well, being a liberal isn`t niche. 35% of the population, I`d estimate, are liberal. Far more than are collectivist. Yet the Labour Party dwarfs the LDs, punching way above its weight due to habits, family influence and union affiliation.

    My pipe dream for this GE was the annihilation of Labour and the emergence of the LDs as the challenger party to the Tories. Didn`t work out too well.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    contrarian said:

    'Tainted' or not, Ed Davey is the libs most capable guy, it seems to me.

    I said the same thing... a year ago.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,391
    edited December 2019
    StuartDickson said:

    HYUFD said:

    StuartDickson said:

    RandallFlagg said:

    SLAB voters clearly going to the SNP in SNP-CON marginals.

    Well, just look at what Scots think of Boris: he is widely despised.
    So what, Catalans hated Rajoy
    Good afternoon Little Englanders! The above HY post is my take-away from UK GE 19. He and his daft buddies are about to bury the Union. Ta!
    Tories do not look like learning any lessons from the continued prominence of the SNP, believing ignoring the problem will be sufficient, and Labour do not look like learning any lessons at all. The LDs might, but have fewer options open to them anyway.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1205484047008436224?s=20
    https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1205484397908107266?s=20
  • NorthernPowerhouseNorthernPowerhouse Posts: 557
    Wasnt she arrested for domestic abuse?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 14,273
    Some observations from last night
    The SDP have absolutely no cut through and are an irrelevance
    UKIP are now finished, I think they broke 1000 in one NE seat only
    The English Democrats and BNP are finished too
    The Yorkshire Party might become a minor player in any regional assembly
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 8,062
    TOPPING said:

    speedy2 said:

    https://twitter.com/MarkDiStef/status/1205443466639089664
    They were so popular they all lost in one go.

    Chuka couldn't even win the seat with the most favourable demographics at the most favourable time.

    It's like those pictures of the Romanovs.
    Heidi Allen was particularly ungracious last night. Sadly unless I missed it I didn’t see an interview with Soubry.
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