Another loser out of this election (out of many). The various twitter accounts or forecasters who kept “reweighting” opinion polls to show the “true” result (I.e the one they wanted).
Have we heard from that centrist-what’s-his-face-red-phone chap recently?
Another loser out of this election (out of many). The various twitter accounts or forecasters who kept “reweighting” opinion polls to show the “true” result (I.e the one they wanted).
Have we heard from that centrist-what’s-his-face-red-phone chap recently?
Do Labour have any rural seats left? NW Durham and Bishop Auckland were two large seats (in area) they lost.
Nearest to rural is small town and ex pit areas. Essentially Labour has become bigger cities and university seats only for now. And you can easily drive from Land's End to nearly Edinburgh without leaving Tory territory, and from Land's End to John O'Groats without troubling a Labour MP. Though once Nicola Sturgeon has her way you will have to cross a hard border.
Spoiler: no-one gives a f*ck about 1-2% GDP growth over a 10-year horizon.
Remain is over. This is now about building a new political and economic settlement both with Europe, and worldwide, for the long-term.
I've we ever get around to doing something about productivity in this country we could be talking about GDP being 10-20% larger. That would be a much better use of politicians time than more drawn-out debate about our relationship with the EU.
I hate Brexit. I would have fought to the bitter end just for the chance to stop it. It's impacted on me and my life to such an extent- notably having to move back in the UK, and placing myself back on the hamster mill. I loved being in the EU- and I've a house in Italy. My Italian wife is distraught about what has happened.
But that's over now. The vote last night is the end of it.
But this is now something I do not have to think about. There is nothing that can be done. Perversely, I feel a sense of serenity.
Boris will get a huge bounce in his popularity in January when he gets it all through Parliament.
Why not expect a rebound in investment? Because investment is competitive. If you can invest in the EU knowing you have access to the bigger market and the regulatory environment is well understood you reduce your risk relative to investing in the UK. If you have operations in the UK you will probably want to keep them going and avoid the dislocation of moving and so you put in dollops of investment to keep them going. But the big investments will go to where you have greater certainty. That pretty much the case across lots of industries.
except not all investment is driven by being in the EU, a lot of it is because the UK is an attractive place to invest anyway. The current uncertainty has been the log jam, now that's gone there is a back log of projects which can be released.
Funnily I agree with all your statements except the last. The uncertainty won't end now, nor will the competitive disadvantage of being outside the larger market without a clearly regulated access.
The competitive advantage of being a flexible market outside the EU will be what we get now.
If the EU is so special perhaps you can point out which developed, western, English speaking nations perform worse than equivalent EU nations?
Excluding the US, which is sui generis, you refer I think to Canada, Australia and New Zealand that are largely resource base economies. The great thing about resources is that they are highly tradeable.
Or Norway, Iceland, Switzerland or whatever else you can think of . . . take your pick.
Name ANY comparable economy to us outside of the EU which is doing worse than we are.
Another loser out of this election (out of many). The various twitter accounts or forecasters who kept “reweighting” opinion polls to show the “true” result (I.e the one they wanted).
Have we heard from that centrist-what’s-his-face-red-phone chap recently?
No doubt been lots of theories floated on here about why Labour did badly.
I'm taking my time before pronouncing. So easy to interpret in a way that suits pre-existing prejudice and received wisdom.
There will be none of that from me.
Take as long as you like but it will still come down to the same 3 reasons, CORBYN, CORBYN and CORBYN. Anything else is burying your head in the sand.
It isn't just Corbyn. A yawning gulf has opened up between old Labour areas and metro/university cities. Dumping Corbynism wouldn't be sufficient to bridge the gap and Labour aren't even on board for that.
Why not expect a rebound in investment? Because investment is competitive. If you can invest in the EU knowing you have access to the bigger market and the regulatory environment is well understood you reduce your risk relative to investing in the UK. If you have operations in the UK you will probably want to keep them going and avoid the dislocation of moving and so you put in dollops of investment to keep them going. But the big investments will go to where you have greater certainty. That pretty much the case across lots of industries.
except not all investment is driven by being in the EU, a lot of it is because the UK is an attractive place to invest anyway. The current uncertainty has been the log jam, now that's gone there is a back log of projects which can be released.
Funnily I agree with all your statements except the last. The uncertainty won't end now, nor will the competitive disadvantage of being outside the larger market without a clearly regulated access.
The competitive advantage of being a flexible market outside the EU will be what we get now.
If the EU is so special perhaps you can point out which developed, western, English speaking nations perform worse than equivalent EU nations?
Excluding the US, which is sui generis, you refer I think to Canada, Australia and New Zealand that are largely resource base economies. The great thing about resources is that they are highly tradeable.
Or Norway, Iceland, Switzerland or whatever else you can think of . . . take your pick.
Name ANY comparable economy to us outside of the EU which is doing worse than we are.
Eh?
Is there another resource poor, low savings rate country with GDP per head in the $30-50,000 range?
The only one I can think of is Japan, and that's doing worse than us.
The obvious former Empire countries are all really resource rich. (The MIT economic complexity numbers are really interesting.) We can't have an economy like Australia's or New Zealand's, however much we might want to.
I guess you could go with Taiwain or South Korea, but those are countries with really high household savings rates. Those economies look structurally like Germany's, not like ours. Which (given Germany is part of the EU) tells you that it's not being in the EU that stops us looking like South Korea or Taiwan.
Another loser out of this election (out of many). The various twitter accounts or forecasters who kept “reweighting” opinion polls to show the “true” result (I.e the one they wanted).
Have we heard from that centrist-what’s-his-face-red-phone chap recently?
Brexit is a solution looking for a problem . It’s going to happen and the Tories own it . They can’t hide behind parliament allegedly making life hard for them , they’ve got a whole new band of lobby fodder to wave through whatever Bozo wants .
Hmmm. David Lammy on Sky being as gormless as ever ... slightly slower growth is apparently a huge drop in GDP, without any realisation that different measures can be taken.
Gertjan Vlieghe
“That 2% of GDP is not trivial, that’s £40bn or if you prefer it in bus units, it’s £800m a week.”
It's
2% or so GDP relative cost so far of Brexit is a consensus figure of serious analysts however.
Hmmm. David Lammy on Sky being as gormless as ever ... slightly slower growth is apparently a huge drop in GDP, without any realisation that different measures can be taken.
Gertjan Vlieghe, a member of the Bank of England monetary policy committee, said that since the vote in June 2016 [to start 2019], the economy had lost about 2% of GDP compared with a scenario where there had been no significant domestic economic events.
“That 2% of GDP is not trivial, that’s £40bn or if you prefer it in bus units, it’s £800m a week.”
The more worrying, if entirely predictable, bit:
He said business investment in Britain had been stuck around zero, with a drop of 3.7% in 2018, despite an upswing worth about 6% annually in the rest of the G7.
Don't expect investment to rebound now Johnson is in charge.
why not ?
Why not expect a rebound in investment? Because investment is competitive. If you can invest in the EU knowing you have access to the bigger market and the regulatory environment is well understood you reduce your risk relative to investing in the UK. If you have operations in the UK you will probably want to keep them going and avoid the dislocation of moving and so you put in dollops of investment to keep them going. But the big investments will go to where you have greater certainty. That pretty much the case across lots of industries.
Spoiler: no-one gives a f*ck about 1-2% GDP growth over a 10-year horizon.
Remain is over. This is now about building a new political and economic settlement both with Europe, and worldwide, for the long-term.
Hopefully a hard Brexit, economic armageddon and rejoin next decade
Another loser out of this election (out of many). The various twitter accounts or forecasters who kept “reweighting” opinion polls to show the “true” result (I.e the one they wanted).
Have we heard from that centrist-what’s-his-face-red-phone chap recently?
Comments
Remain is over. This is now about building a new political and economic settlement both with Europe, and worldwide, for the long-term.
@Casino
You are right.
I hate Brexit. I would have fought to the bitter end just for the chance to stop it. It's impacted on me and my life to such an extent- notably having to move back in the UK, and placing myself back on the hamster mill. I loved being in the EU- and I've a house in Italy. My Italian wife is distraught about what has happened.
But that's over now. The vote last night is the end of it.
But this is now something I do not have to think about. There is nothing that can be done. Perversely, I feel a sense of serenity.
Boris will get a huge bounce in his popularity in January when he gets it all through Parliament.
Name ANY comparable economy to us outside of the EU which is doing worse than we are.
Tories make a gain in Hounslow.....
"Fearless defender of Free Speech for everyone except when I don't like it" should be his motto.
Is there another resource poor, low savings rate country with GDP per head in the $30-50,000 range?
The only one I can think of is Japan, and that's doing worse than us.
The obvious former Empire countries are all really resource rich. (The MIT economic complexity numbers are really interesting.) We can't have an economy like Australia's or New Zealand's, however much we might want to.
I guess you could go with Taiwain or South Korea, but those are countries with really high household savings rates. Those economies look structurally like Germany's, not like ours. Which (given Germany is part of the EU) tells you that it's not being in the EU that stops us looking like South Korea or Taiwan.
Kids of childcare/ school age would be my guess, plus they came of age during New Labour.
https://www.twitter.com/centrist_phone/status/1205457816183615489
SORTED