It's an unpopular opinion for Labour supporters but I think the NHS has lost some of its salience as an election issue. Not in terms of media coverage (they love it) or the politicians' desire to create it into a football, but in terms of public reaction.
Voters are naturally cynical and I think the 'NHS in Crisis' is priced in. We all know it needs more money, and will need more money next year, and the year after that, and the constant refrain of Tory Cuts, Save the NHS and NHS Privatisation probably shifts hardly a vote.
I was skeptical. In the copeland by election that preceded the ill fated 2017 GE, was entirely fought by Labour on the issue of the nhs and the threat to local maternity services. They went in hard. Buying a newspaper wrap around showing a picture of a newborn with words not far off "voting tory will result in children like this dying".
Election polling have put together a list of targets for 2024. For Lab they now need a 10% swing on UNS to get a majority of 2. That includes a lot of gains in Scotland. Without any Scottish gains it would be 13% swing required
Amazing some of the seats Labour now need to win back in the north to recover. It looks like Bury North is the new most marginal constituency, only 105 votes between Lab/Con
The Lib Dem target list is interesting too, several seats previously thought of as solidly Conservative are now in their top 20. South Cambridgeshire at #8, Esher is #9, Wokingham #17. Cambridge is now down at 24.
Assuming a lot of the Brexit bruises have faded I suspect a lot of these seats will be much more Tory in 2024
Labour know how to stage manage... in 1997 there was hoards of supporters cheering Blair, it looked like the "people had spoken", a scene almost from World War Z with crowds swarming Downing street. Yet, despite Boris securing more votes than Blair in 1997 we wont see those kind of scenes.
Polling suggests Johnson is not a popular PM, just fortunate to be facing the most unpopular LOTO ever. Blair was genuinely popular at the time.
The most unpopular LOTO filled a huge square in Bristol only days before this huge defeat...
What does that matter? Crappy bands can still sell out a venue to the right crowd.
I saw Tin Machine in Livingston. Slept on the pavement.
It's an unpopular opinion for Labour supporters but I think the NHS has lost some of its salience as an election issue. Not in terms of media coverage (they love it) or the politicians' desire to create it into a football, but in terms of public reaction.
Voters are naturally cynical and I think the 'NHS in Crisis' is priced in. We all know it needs more money, and will need more money next year, and the year after that, and the constant refrain of Tory Cuts, Save the NHS and NHS Privatisation probably shifts hardly a vote.
This why I think the NHS will become salient again. Worst ever waiting times in Oct but that wasn't peak pressure. There was no peak last summer so the drop starts at a lower point this year and the fall is further. November figures that were suppressed for the election and just now released show this
Possibly, likely, counting my chickens here, but, now that it seems that Brexit will actually happen, it was probably for the good that the referendum result was tested to within an inch of its life before enactment, albeit in the free market kind of way it has rather than a second go at it. Leave won the referendum, then the only party willing to enact the result won a Majority in a subsequent GE with the policy in its manifesto. Double lock!
Yep. It is unambiguously the will of the people. We'll be out by 1st Feb.
Oven cooked.
Remain 52% Leave 48% but the war, stage one is over let’s hope WAIB gets proper scrutiny and is not rushed through, it can wait for the new year.
Yes Johnson loves scrutiny, that will definitely happen.
I really worry that these important albeit very simple Bills being rushed through in a single day over the last year have given government a taste to take the piss with timetabling now they have the upper hand
Indeed. Hopefully a more reasonable Speaker will work to bring things back to how they were a decade ago, where Bills get proper scrutiny and procedure isn't abused.
On the more general point, I think there there are as many libertarian as authoritarian Conservatives in this new Parliament. The Government will struggle to get measures aimed at undermining democracy through the Commons and especially the Lords.
Yes Layla Moran likely the LD members choice now as next leader, especially as unlike Ed Davey she was not an MP from 2010 to 2015 and this not tainted by the Coalition with the Tories in their eyes.
Swinson now likely to move to Holyrood to take on Sturgeon who was vocally cheering her loss on camera (albeit to be fair so were many Tories)
Jack Straw - I campaigned and voted for Labour, but I had a worry the country would be in really dangerous hands if Corbyn won.
Well what an absolutely **** you are then.
Corbyn was never going to win, of course Lab politicians would campaign for their party and try to get close to a hung parliament. Nothing wrong with that.
@Fenster I wonder if Boris will put someone big and interesting in charge of Health, or will he keep Hancock. ---- Gove!
This winter will be grim. That boy on the hospital floor is only the start of it. Johnson should put a safe pair of hands into that role, if none other. Which rules Gove out.
Tactically, Labour and the LDs should have delayed the election until the New Year. Health would be a much bigger theme and Johnson wouldn't be getting "most trusted" ratings on it.
Nah, a 'Safe Pair of Hands' will do nothing to address the serious structural reforms required. With a clear majority for government that will last until May 2014, that department more than any other needs ministers prepared to think the unthinkable.
That brought a lump to my throat. Well said Caroline
Thing is, Owen Jones was right. There was simply no way out of the Leave/Remain conundrum for Lab. I don't for one minute think that it was only Brexit that did for Lab but there was simply no position that they could have taken on it which wouldn't have lost them votes and arguably only left them as compelled to become one part of an anti-Cons coalition rather than form a majority government.
If I was a leading centre-left Labour MP, and looked around me and worked out the numbers were there to do it, then on the day before parliament reconvenes, I’d aanounce that the centre-left MPs would not take the Labour whip, but would sit as a separate group in parliament. I’d make sure, in fact, that this new group was big enough to be larger than Corbyn’s Labour, and hence be the official Opposition, relegating Corbyn to being a minor leader who could make his meandering speeches to an empty chamber. I’d even, if the numbers made it necessary, hold my nose and reach out to the LibDems, Plaid Cymru, and Caroline Lucas, to see if an umbrella grouping could work. What would they call such a grouping? Of course we had this all with Change UK, TIG, and so on. But there is one option that could be used, an existing party name that has none of the baggage of Labour, but has a long and proud history that bridges socialism, social democracy and indeed liberalism. Party rules might need amending of course, and some MPs might need to quickly fill out a membership form, but might Parliament, and the country, benefit from the Labour Party being sidelined by a rejuvenated and revived Co-Operative Party? Well, a voter (this voter) can dream…
Bloke in a chippy in Rother Valley: Kick all the Marxists out and go back to being a Labour Party
Look North should be compulsory viewing for Momentum today.
I don't think that they are interested in listening.
Heads further up their own backsides than before, solemnly listening to their own farts - despite a whacking great paddle on their posterior from the public in the provinces.
Unless something has changed that I missed.
This seems to be the mood on Twitter too - and while I accept that Twitter can be very unrepresentative, on questions like this, it's probably less so.
That brought a lump to my throat. Well said Caroline
Her decision to back Leave so strongly was in all probability a contributing factor to the scale of her defeat (and was why I tipped the Conservatives at 7/4 to beat her). What reason did people have to vote for her?
That brought a lump to my throat. Well said Caroline
Thing is, Owen Jones was right. There was simply no way out of the Leave/Remain conundrum for Lab. I don't for one minute think that it was only Brexit that did for Lab but there was simply no position that they could have taken on it which wouldn't have lost them votes and arguably only left them as compelled to become one part of an anti-Cons coalition rather than form a majority government.
Their opportunities to get out of the jam were the indicative votes and May offering Labour a blank cheque brexit in her final weeks.
That brought a lump to my throat. Well said Caroline
Thing is, Owen Jones was right. There was simply no way out of the Leave/Remain conundrum for Lab. I don't for one minute think that it was only Brexit that did for Lab but there was simply no position that they could have taken on it which wouldn't have lost them votes and arguably only left them as compelled to become one part of an anti-Cons coalition rather than form a majority government.
Jones is completely wrong. The Tories were able to pick a side because thy knew that Tory Remainers would stay loyal for fear of Corbyn. With a different leader that option would not have possible and the conundrum would not have emerged. Brexit was a problem for Labour because it was intertwined with leadership failures.
It's an unpopular opinion for Labour supporters but I think the NHS has lost some of its salience as an election issue. Not in terms of media coverage (they love it) or the politicians' desire to create it into a football, but in terms of public reaction.
Voters are naturally cynical and I think the 'NHS in Crisis' is priced in. We all know it needs more money, and will need more money next year, and the year after that, and the constant refrain of Tory Cuts, Save the NHS and NHS Privatisation probably shifts hardly a vote.
I think you are right on the NHS. The Tory privatisation meme simply does not sound credible when it's repeated at every election and somehow never happens. It won't this time either. And everyone does know that especially in winter the NHS is under severe pressure.
The phonegate story was interesting given that the video was apparently seen squillions of times and that Boris did not handle it especially well. I don't do social media but Lady humbugger has a very wide social media circle, including in the Leeds area. The reactions she reported included "shocking parenting", "how convenient for Labour" and generally lots of scepticism about whether things happened precisely as reported. I've no reason to doubt the accounts of what occurred, but the reporting of it at Leeds Hospital (not LGI) and the timing raised suspicions in the era of fake news. Either way its impact on voting seems minimal.
Also minimal was the impact of Andrew Neil's blast at Boris which was also apparently seen squillions of times, as OGH reminded us. If anything one less political interview on the TV just before Christmas was to be welcomed.
Election polling have put together a list of targets for 2024. For Lab they now need a 10% swing on UNS to get a majority of 2. That includes a lot of gains in Scotland. Without any Scottish gains it would be 13% swing required
Amazing some of the seats Labour now need to win back in the north to recover. It looks like Bury North is the new most marginal constituency, only 105 votes between Lab/Con
The Lib Dem target list is interesting too, several seats previously thought of as solidly Conservative are now in their top 20. South Cambridgeshire at #8, Esher is #9, Wokingham #17. Cambridge is now down at 24.
Assuming a lot of the Brexit bruises have faded I suspect a lot of these seats will be much more Tory in 2024
That's definitely a keeper. I would bet on the exact opposite
Bloke in a chippy in Rother Valley: Kick all the Marxists out and go back to being a Labour Party
Look North should be compulsory viewing for Momentum today.
I don't think that they are interested in listening.
Heads further up their own backsides than before, solemnly listening to their own farts - despite a whacking great paddle on their posterior from the public in the provinces.
Unless something has changed that I missed.
This seems to be the mood on Twitter too - and while I accept that Twitter can be very unrepresentative, on questions like this, it's probably less so.
The Left stands a good chance of winning again.
Unless Labour can change their electoral system, it's going to be completely undermined by the far left, just as much as it has been for the past two leadership elections. The nomination threshold is now 5%, so only 11 MPs needed to get on the ballot. Lapsed members will also be rejoining again now, in anticipation of a contest in the New Year that hasn't been officially called yet.
Mr. Paris, I like to sneak 'tatterdemalion' into my books. Found it watching a lyric video to Queen's Fairy Feller's Masterstroke.
Ms. Henrietta, that requires categorising Labour as a Remain party. Not sure that's accurate. Also, the Lib Dems didn't want a referendum. If one were minded to try and slice the electorate that way, you would find a healthy majority (Con + Lib Dem) of voters opposing a second referendum.
So Cooper hung on in my manor, albeit with a massively reduced majority.
There's a lot of glum folk around me today in the circles I move in. But, after the shock of the exit poll, I'm hopeful that BoJo will now ignore the ERG nutters and their ilk and tack gracefully towards the centre. If he's canny and chucks money at the north then even better. I don't care which colour government is helping the north, as long as the government is helping.
Brexit, unfortunately, will be done. I still think, in 20 or so years time, we will think we made a mistake, and perhaps rejoin. But, for now, many, many people still believe that Brexit will make their lives better. We shall see.
Corbyn is despised. Be interesting to see where Labour goes now. I hope they see sense and find Blair-like renewal and relevance. Again, we shall see!
So Cooper hung on in my manor, albeit with a massively reduced majority.
There's a lot of glum folk around me today in the circles I move in. But, after the shock of the exit poll, I'm hopeful that BoJo will now ignore the ERG nutters and their ilk and tack gracefully towards the centre. If he's canny and chucks money at the north then even better. I don't care which colour government is helping the north, as long as the government is helping.
Brexit, unfortunately, will be done. I still think, in 20 or so years time, we will think we made a mistake, and perhaps rejoin. But, for now, many, many people still believe that Brexit will make their lives better. We shall see.
Corbyn is despised. Be interesting to see where Labour goes now. I hope they see sense and find Blair-like renewal and relevance. Again, we shall see!
I don't think it's so much that people believe Brexit will make their lives better. It's that they voted for it and want it to be respected.
FTSE up 100 points, pound up two cents against the dollar and to a ten year high against the Euro.
What are you smoking? GBP Vs EUR its back where it was after the Brexit vote, still well below 2015 levels.
No smoking anything, but I'll admit to drinking a bit! Champagne mostly.
You're right. My source was CNN who reported it wrong. It's a three year high vs the Euro, from Brexit referendum day. Pound is higher than it was ten years ago vs the Euro.
Overall a good night to be a Tory, even a disillusioned one. A few disappointing individual seat results (though some of these were good from a betting perspective).
I stuck to constituency bets and won all except West+Lons (and my silly ultra-long shot two quid on Warley).
Putney, Battersea, North Norfolk, Canterbury and Fife. A modest £134 profit.
And good to hear the 'Arthur' theme. All is well with the world.
That brought a lump to my throat. Well said Caroline
Her decision to back Leave so strongly was in all probability a contributing factor to the scale of her defeat (and was why I tipped the Conservatives at 7/4 to beat her). What reason did people have to vote for her?
9.6% swing against her in Don Valley
She outperformed all neighbouring constituencies save Doncaster Central - swings against Labour :
Doncaster Central 9.0% Rother Valley 10.4% Brigg & Goole 11.55% Doncaster North 13.65% Wentworth & Dearne 14.25% Bassetlaw 18.6%
So Cooper hung on in my manor, albeit with a massively reduced majority.
There's a lot of glum folk around me today in the circles I move in. But, after the shock of the exit poll, I'm hopeful that BoJo will now ignore the ERG nutters and their ilk and tack gracefully towards the centre. If he's canny and chucks money at the north then even better. I don't care which colour government is helping the north, as long as the government is helping.
Brexit, unfortunately, will be done. I still think, in 20 or so years time, we will think we made a mistake, and perhaps rejoin. But, for now, many, many people still believe that Brexit will make their lives better. We shall see.
Corbyn is despised. Be interesting to see where Labour goes now. I hope they see sense and find Blair-like renewal and relevance. Again, we shall see!
I don't think it's so much that people believe Brexit will make their lives better. It's that they voted for it and want it to be respected.
OK, but why did they vote for it? Because they think it will make their lives better, in my neck of the woods anyway. Fewer foreigners driving down wages, fewer foreigners clogging up the NHS, fewer foreigners, full stop. More money to be spent on infrastructure, not sent to the EU. The return of industry. Those are the perceptions of what Brexit will bring. Bojo needs to make it work now.
Has Corbyn already lost the next election as well?
Labour needs 122 seats to get to a majority. Blair in 1997 won 145 but does anyone believe that anyone in Labour are capable of anything remotely equivalent today? Blair won 56 seats in Scotland, an increase of 6. The journey looks even longer there than it does in England and Wales. So many seats that need to be won are just not even close anymore. It looks like at least a 2 stage journey to me.
Life would be even tougher if they had the Lib Dems breathing down their neck. They don't and after the pathetic efforts of the Tiggers it is not easy to see where a new party is going to come from.
FTSE up 100 points, pound up two cents against the dollar and to a ten year high against the Euro.
Goldman Sachs forecasting 150bill of business and foreign investment incoming and economy to be growing at an annual rate of 2.4% by end of 2020.
Yep, it's amazing what happens with a clear majority government of positivity, opportunity and in favour of commerce and business.
I also expect the Tories to make boundaries changes. It is wrong for them to do that for the next election, but could see them home and dry.
The Tories don't make boundary changes, they are made by the impartial Electoral Commission. The current boundaries date from after the 2005 election, and are well overdue for updating. The only political decision is whether to stick with the reduction to 600 seats or stick with the current 650.
As an outsider to labour I can understand why blair is no longer popular. What I cannot understand is the refusal of the current membership to think there was anything worthwhile in him, you know, winning. It's like that novaro media piece advising to say to people what was labour even for before Corbyn.
FTSE up 100 points, pound up two cents against the dollar and to a ten year high against the Euro.
Goldman Sachs forecasting 150bill of business and foreign investment incoming and economy to be growing at an annual rate of 2.4% by end of 2020.
Yep, it's amazing what happens with a clear majority government of positivity, opportunity and in favour of commerce and business.
I also expect the Tories to make boundaries changes. It is wrong for them to do that for the next election, but could see them home and dry.
It's been overdue for years
It really should be a priority. The difference in the size of electorates in different constituencies last night were just absurd. In some the losers got more than the winners elsewhere.
FTSE up 100 points, pound up two cents against the dollar and to a ten year high against the Euro.
Goldman Sachs forecasting 150bill of business and foreign investment incoming and economy to be growing at an annual rate of 2.4% by end of 2020.
Yep, it's amazing what happens with a clear majority government of positivity, opportunity and in favour of commerce and business.
I also expect the Tories to make boundaries changes. It is wrong for them to do that for the next election, but could see them home and dry.
The boundaries are out of date, why is it wrong to update them for the next election? Surely its an issue if how they are updated and whether criteria for the review are unfairly gamed to help one side.
Love that speech outside No10 from Boris. Positive, inspiring, friendly and warm. Thank God he won. Can you imagine if it had been Corbyn?
I was a first time Conservative voter and, more than hearing the voices of my parents whispering as I wavered over the ballot paper, I phoned them both beforehand to ask permission to vote Tory & said I wouldn't if it would make them feel let down. Millions of others obviously felt the same, and I am glad that we agreed that the gridlock could not go on any longer. .
FTSE up 100 points, pound up two cents against the dollar and to a ten year high against the Euro.
Goldman Sachs forecasting 150bill of business and foreign investment incoming and economy to be growing at an annual rate of 2.4% by end of 2020.
Yep, it's amazing what happens with a clear majority government of positivity, opportunity and in favour of commerce and business.
I also expect the Tories to make boundaries changes. It is wrong for them to do that for the next election, but could see them home and dry.
The Tories don't make boundary changes, they are made by the impartial Electoral Commission. The current boundaries date from after the 2005 election, and are well overdue for updating. The only political decision is whether to stick with the reduction to 600 seats or stick with the current 650.
Hopefully Johnson abandons the silly 600 seat idea, and loosens the restrictions to +-7% instead of 5%/
FTSE up 100 points, pound up two cents against the dollar and to a ten year high against the Euro.
Goldman Sachs forecasting 150bill of business and foreign investment incoming and economy to be growing at an annual rate of 2.4% by end of 2020.
Yep, it's amazing what happens with a clear majority government of positivity, opportunity and in favour of commerce and business.
I also expect the Tories to make boundaries changes. It is wrong for them to do that for the next election, but could see them home and dry.
The Tories don't make boundary changes, they are made by the impartial Electoral Commission. The current boundaries date from after the 2005 election, and are well overdue for updating. The only political decision is whether to stick with the reduction to 600 seats or stick with the current 650.
Yep, all being well they can send off the electoral commission with a mandate to redraw for 650 (who even remembers the expenses scandal now, which was the cause of the 600 reduction) and get the whole thing signed off in the first couple of years.
Combined with lots of first time incumbent bonus, they should have a pretty good chance of 10 year run even given the various challenges to be faced.
That brought a lump to my throat. Well said Caroline
Thing is, Owen Jones was right. There was simply no way out of the Leave/Remain conundrum for Lab. I don't for one minute think that it was only Brexit that did for Lab but there was simply no position that they could have taken on it which wouldn't have lost them votes and arguably only left them as compelled to become one part of an anti-Cons coalition rather than form a majority government.
Jones is completely wrong. The Tories were able to pick a side because thy knew that Tory Remainers would stay loyal for fear of Corbyn. With a different leader that option would not have possible and the conundrum would not have emerged. Brexit was a problem for Labour because it was intertwined with leadership failures.
Corbyn was toxic for Tory remainers and Labour leavers....
Has Corbyn already lost the next election as well?
Labour needs 122 seats to get to a majority. Blair in 1997 won 145 but does anyone believe that anyone in Labour are capable of anything remotely equivalent today? Blair won 56 seats in Scotland, an increase of 6. The journey looks even longer there than it does in England and Wales. So many seats that need to be won are just not even close anymore. It looks like at least a 2 stage journey to me.
Life would be even tougher if they had the Lib Dems breathing down their neck. They don't and after the pathetic efforts of the Tiggers it is not easy to see where a new party is going to come from.
I think it's right that a majority government looks almost impossible in one go - it would need the performance of a 1945 Attlee or 1997 Blair.
If the goal is just to lead a coalition / C&S government, and the SNP have ~50 and are prepared to prop that leader up, then the total Labour gain needed is only 70 or so (~ 60 if the LDs are also on board). That's's not impossible, so the Tories do need to plan carefully for the possbility.
Mr. Paris, I like to sneak 'tatterdemalion' into my books. Found it watching a lyric video to Queen's Fairy Feller's Masterstroke.
Ms. Henrietta, that requires categorising Labour as a Remain party. Not sure that's accurate. Also, the Lib Dems didn't want a referendum. If one were minded to try and slice the electorate that way, you would find a healthy majority (Con + Lib Dem) of voters opposing a second referendum.
Labour aren't a Remain party. I'm slicing voters into support for and opposition to the Tories' main promise: proceeding to Brexit without another referendum, or "getting Brexit done" as it is also known. Is there or is there not a mandate for getting Brexit done?
I appreciate that a general election isn't a referendum and that generally speaking a party that wins a majority in the Commons has a mandate to fulfil its manifesto promises, BUT when its campaign has mostly focused on a single promise (unlike any winning party's campaign in any general election I can remember), and the country is heavily divided on the issue, and a majority voted against parties which made that promise, and given that the referendum genie is out of the bottle, then there should be another referendum.
Tories may say it's illegitimate to call for another referendum before implementing the result of the last one, which is a reasonable view although not one that I share, but in seven weeks' time from now they lose their basis for saying that. (Perhaps I should go on holiday for seven weeks .)
Yes several people said to me that they didn't like Corbyn, not particularly over Brexit or the anti Semitism, The main cause was they didn't think he should be trusted with security Also over promising on policies, they didn't think they were achievable
FTSE up 100 points, pound up two cents against the dollar and to a ten year high against the Euro.
Goldman Sachs forecasting 150bill of business and foreign investment incoming and economy to be growing at an annual rate of 2.4% by end of 2020.
Yep, it's amazing what happens with a clear majority government of positivity, opportunity and in favour of commerce and business.
'fuck business'
People who are actually in business know where that quote came from*, and the difference between a Johnson government and a Corbyn government with regard to investment opportunities and business taxation.
*he was being harrassed for a response to the CBI putting out a very pro-EU statement on the eve of a crucial day of negotation with the EU. His private quote referred to organised business groups, rather than business in general. Maybe he should have said "f*** big business" instead?
FTSE up 100 points, pound up two cents against the dollar and to a ten year high against the Euro.
Goldman Sachs forecasting 150bill of business and foreign investment incoming and economy to be growing at an annual rate of 2.4% by end of 2020.
Yep, it's amazing what happens with a clear majority government of positivity, opportunity and in favour of commerce and business.
I also expect the Tories to make boundaries changes. It is wrong for them to do that for the next election, but could see them home and dry.
Why is it wrong? We have independent Commissions in this country - it's not like the US with overtly partisan gerrymandering. Equally-sized constituencies (bar exceptional circumstances) is a good thing in principle and boundary reviews, as is a boundary review implemented at least every decade.
Yes several people said to me that they didn't like Corbyn, not particularly over Brexit or the anti Semitism, The main cause was they didn't think he should be trusted with security Also over promising on policies, they didn't think they were achievable
Yes Layla Moran likely the LD members choice now as next leader, especially as unlike Ed Davey she was not an MP from 2010 to 2015 and this not tainted by the Coalition with the Tories in their eyes.
Swinson now likely to move to Holyrood to take on Sturgeon who was vocally cheering her loss on camera (albeit to be fair so were many Tories)
LOL, replace silly Willie and take charge of her handful of donkeys, bit difficult to do it from Bath I would say. Bad enough when their regional sockpuppets actually live in Scotland
Has Corbyn already lost the next election as well?
Labour needs 122 seats to get to a majority. Blair in 1997 won 145 but does anyone believe that anyone in Labour are capable of anything remotely equivalent today? Blair won 56 seats in Scotland, an increase of 6. The journey looks even longer there than it does in England and Wales. So many seats that need to be won are just not even close anymore. It looks like at least a 2 stage journey to me.
Life would be even tougher if they had the Lib Dems breathing down their neck. They don't and after the pathetic efforts of the Tiggers it is not easy to see where a new party is going to come from.
I think it's right that a majority government looks almost impossible in one go - it would need the performance of a 1945 Attlee or 1997 Blair.
If the goal is just to lead a coalition / C&S government, and the SNP have ~50 and are prepared to prop that leader up, then the total Labour gain needed is only 70 or so (~ 60 if the LDs are also on board). That's's not impossible, so the Tories do need to plan carefully for the possbility.
Comments
Labour got smashed....
https://twitter.com/MarkAnsell/status/1205341329535971328?s=20
As previously stated in my article, DUP were a ridiculous price at 1-5 for upper bann, should have been 1-50 really.
amazing
Well what an absolutely **** you are then.
On the more general point, I think there there are as many libertarian as authoritarian Conservatives in this new Parliament. The Government will struggle to get measures aimed at undermining democracy through the Commons and especially the Lords.
https://inews.co.uk/news/david-lammy-police-officer-labour-london-murder-crime-307021
Have we not had any massive Mellor style rants? I do enjoy those.
Ken Loach on BBC1, will he be back to Left Unity now?
BBC sensibly show Speaker as Lab as each side then supplies two Speakers but SPIN obviously didn't realise this.
They've now corrected some markets but not all - the 200Ups market is still wrong.
Which is why it will never happen.
O/T has anyone seen Jack?
The Left stands a good chance of winning again.
Per BBC it's 80. Two Speakers on each side cancel out.
Add 7 SF gives 87.
https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1205513810464985088?s=20
The phonegate story was interesting given that the video was apparently seen squillions of times and that Boris did not handle it especially well. I don't do social media but Lady humbugger has a very wide social media circle, including in the Leeds area. The reactions she reported included "shocking parenting", "how convenient for Labour" and generally lots of scepticism about whether things happened precisely as reported. I've no reason to doubt the accounts of what occurred, but the reporting of it at Leeds Hospital (not LGI) and the timing raised suspicions in the era of fake news. Either way its impact on voting seems minimal.
Also minimal was the impact of Andrew Neil's blast at Boris which was also apparently seen squillions of times, as OGH reminded us. If anything one less political interview on the TV just before Christmas was to be welcomed.
… but leave out the bit about the Hang Seng and Nikkei rising by rather more and rather earlier.
Scotland: a majority FOR the Union and AGAINST another indyref;
Britain as a whole: a majority in favour of Revoke or a People's Vote, so a majority AGAINST proceeding to Brexit without a referendum.
Jo Swinson's words should be heeded when she warns of a rising wave of nationalism on both sides of the border.
https://twitter.com/BobSmithWalker/status/1205514302599417863?s=20
https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1205516211930443777
Ms. Henrietta, that requires categorising Labour as a Remain party. Not sure that's accurate. Also, the Lib Dems didn't want a referendum. If one were minded to try and slice the electorate that way, you would find a healthy majority (Con + Lib Dem) of voters opposing a second referendum.
There's a lot of glum folk around me today in the circles I move in. But, after the shock of the exit poll, I'm hopeful that BoJo will now ignore the ERG nutters and their ilk and tack gracefully towards the centre. If he's canny and chucks money at the north then even better. I don't care which colour government is helping the north, as long as the government is helping.
Brexit, unfortunately, will be done. I still think, in 20 or so years time, we will think we made a mistake, and perhaps rejoin. But, for now, many, many people still believe that Brexit will make their lives better. We shall see.
Corbyn is despised. Be interesting to see where Labour goes now. I hope they see sense and find Blair-like renewal and relevance. Again, we shall see!
You're right. My source was CNN who reported it wrong. It's a three year high vs the Euro, from Brexit referendum day. Pound is higher than it was ten years ago vs the Euro.
I stuck to constituency bets and won all except West+Lons (and my silly ultra-long shot two quid on Warley).
Putney, Battersea, North Norfolk, Canterbury and Fife. A modest £134 profit.
And good to hear the 'Arthur' theme. All is well with the world.
She outperformed all neighbouring constituencies save Doncaster Central - swings against Labour :
Doncaster Central 9.0%
Rother Valley 10.4%
Brigg & Goole 11.55%
Doncaster North 13.65%
Wentworth & Dearne 14.25%
Bassetlaw 18.6%
https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1205516211930443777?s=20
https://twitter.com/ashcowburn/status/1205517797872324608?s=20
Labour needs 122 seats to get to a majority. Blair in 1997 won 145 but does anyone believe that anyone in Labour are capable of anything remotely equivalent today? Blair won 56 seats in Scotland, an increase of 6. The journey looks even longer there than it does in England and Wales.
So many seats that need to be won are just not even close anymore. It looks like at least a 2 stage journey to me.
Life would be even tougher if they had the Lib Dems breathing down their neck. They don't and after the pathetic efforts of the Tiggers it is not easy to see where a new party is going to come from.
The current boundaries date from after the 2005 election, and are well overdue for updating.
The only political decision is whether to stick with the reduction to 600 seats or stick with the current 650.
Combined with lots of first time incumbent bonus, they should have a pretty good chance of 10 year run even given the various challenges to be faced.
If the goal is just to lead a coalition / C&S government, and the SNP have ~50 and are prepared to prop that leader up, then the total Labour gain needed is only 70 or so (~ 60 if the LDs are also on board). That's's not impossible, so the Tories do need to plan carefully for the possbility.
I appreciate that a general election isn't a referendum and that generally speaking a party that wins a majority in the Commons has a mandate to fulfil its manifesto promises, BUT when its campaign has mostly focused on a single promise (unlike any winning party's campaign in any general election I can remember), and the country is heavily divided on the issue, and a majority voted against parties which made that promise, and given that the referendum genie is out of the bottle, then there should be another referendum.
Tories may say it's illegitimate to call for another referendum before implementing the result of the last one, which is a reasonable view although not one that I share, but in seven weeks' time from now they lose their basis for saying that. (Perhaps I should go on holiday for seven weeks
Also over promising on policies, they didn't think they were achievable
*he was being harrassed for a response to the CBI putting out a very pro-EU statement on the eve of a crucial day of negotation with the EU. His private quote referred to organised business groups, rather than business in general. Maybe he should have said "f*** big business" instead?