Hmmm. David Lammy on Sky being as gormless as ever ... slightly slower growth is apparently a huge drop in GDP, without any realisation that different measures can be taken.
Gertjan Vlieghe, a member of the Bank of England monetary policy committee, said that since the vote in June 2016 [to start 2019], the economy had lost about 2% of GDP compared with a scenario where there had been no significant domestic economic events.
“That 2% of GDP is not trivial, that’s £40bn or if you prefer it in bus units, it’s £800m a week.”
The more worrying, if entirely predictable, bit:
He said business investment in Britain had been stuck around zero, with a drop of 3.7% in 2018, despite an upswing worth about 6% annually in the rest of the G7.
Don't expect investment to rebound now Johnson is in charge.
why not ?
Same reasons as a recession & half a million unemployed if we had the audacity to vote Leave in 2016.
FTSE up 100 points, pound up two cents against the dollar and to a ten year high against the Euro.
What are you smoking? GBP Vs EUR its back where it was after the Brexit vote, still well below 2015 levels.
No smoking anything, but I'll admit to drinking a bit! Champagne mostly.
You're right. My source was CNN who reported it wrong. It's a three year high vs the Euro, from Brexit referendum day. Pound is higher than it was ten years ago vs the Euro.
The pound is now only down 14% thanks to the cockeyed horseshittery of Brexit. Rejoice and praise the economic mastery of the People's Government!
A decade ago, the pound was 1.10 vs the Euro. Today, it's 1.20, that's 9% to the good.
In Feb 2016, when Cameron confirmed the referendum, it was £1 = 1.30 euro. In the six months prior to this it was £1 = 1.40 euro. It fell from there mainly in anticipation of the referendum.
Brexit has knackered our currency - at least in the short term.
Nowadays when I take my lot to the Caribbean we have to consider fucking 4 star hotels.
On constituency tips, may I point out that I tipped the Conservatives in Wimbledon, Keighley, Peterborough, Don Valley and Bridgend (and warned people off backing them in Hemsworth, Coventry North West and Newport East), suggested that the Lib Dems were far from a done deal in Cheltenham and advised selling them on the spreads (when their sell price was in the 40s).
I'll not mention Westmorland & Lonsdale or Scotland generally if you don't.
It's the modesty of pb regulars that really gets me at times like these.
Really pleased Alex Chalk held on in Cheltenham. I know that he was feared by Downing Street to be one of the expected casualties of the December election, and there was considerable sadness at the thought of him leaving Parliament. That result would have got one of the loudest cheers of the night from Boris.
There is some saving to be made in getting rid of VED, adding it on to fuel duty (where nobody will notice it, and it is fairer), and having insurance connected to the issuing of an MOT.
The only drawback is in its strength - it will make a whole heap of civil servants in Wales unemployed.
But if another form of employment could be found for those people, such as RBS hiring them as their new UK call centre, that would work.
I hope the Tories have sense to get the Behavioural Insight Team back on board. The nudge unit stuff using evidence based policies.
I agree.
I also have a further policy idea. I would reintroduce the hereditary baronetcy, but it would be connected to owning a particular property, and living in it for a minimum number of days a year. As long as you and your direct descendents live there (paying taxes and employing locals) you get to keep being 'Sirs'. I would then create baronet titles and attach them to a number of derelict and at risk properties, to encourage wealthy buyers to purchase those properties, do them up, and stay there, thus joining (in time) the British upper class. If you sell, you lose the title and your buyer doesn't get it.
No doubt been lots of theories floated on here about why Labour did badly.
I'm taking my time before pronouncing. So easy to interpret in a way that suits pre- existing prejudice and received wisdom.
There will be none of that from me.
Just watch the vox-pops the media have done before and today....Its dead simple, they all say to a tee, that they hate Corbyn and they are pissed off having been called thick racists for supporting leave and despite the referendum their voice ignored.
On constituency tips, may I point out that I tipped the Conservatives in Wimbledon, Keighley, Peterborough, Don Valley and Bridgend (and warned people off backing them in Hemsworth, Coventry North West and Newport East), suggested that the Lib Dems were far from a done deal in Cheltenham and advised selling them on the spreads (when their sell price was in the 40s).
I'll not mention Westmorland & Lonsdale or Scotland generally if you don't.
It's the modesty of pb regulars that really gets me at times like these.
I`m not complimenting Meeks - I was on Westmorland & Lonsdale
Really pleased Alex Chalk held on in Cheltenham. I know that he was feared by Downing Street to be one of the expected casualties of the December election, and there was considerable sadness at the thought of him leaving Parliament. That result would have got one of the loudest cheers of the night from Boris.
Top quality local MP as well, I hope that made a difference.
Hmmm. David Lammy on Sky being as gormless as ever ... slightly slower growth is apparently a huge drop in GDP, without any realisation that different measures can be taken.
Gertjan Vlieghe, a member of the Bank of England monetary policy committee, said that since the vote in June 2016 [to start 2019], the economy had lost about 2% of GDP compared with a scenario where there had been no significant domestic economic events.
“That 2% of GDP is not trivial, that’s £40bn or if you prefer it in bus units, it’s £800m a week.”
It's just embarrassingly partisan rubbish though. We've outperformed comparable economies since 2016. The idea there has been a big Brexit cost to economic growth relies on a fantasy trend line that isn't being achieved by anyone anymore.
2% or so GDP relative cost so far of Brexit is a consensus figure of serious analysts however.
Hmmm. David Lammy on Sky being as gormless as ever ... slightly slower growth is apparently a huge drop in GDP, without any realisation that different measures can be taken.
Gertjan Vlieghe, a member of the Bank of England monetary policy committee, said that since the vote in June 2016 [to start 2019], the economy had lost about 2% of GDP compared with a scenario where there had been no significant domestic economic events.
“That 2% of GDP is not trivial, that’s £40bn or if you prefer it in bus units, it’s £800m a week.”
The more worrying, if entirely predictable, bit:
He said business investment in Britain had been stuck around zero, with a drop of 3.7% in 2018, despite an upswing worth about 6% annually in the rest of the G7.
Don't expect investment to rebound now Johnson is in charge.
why not ?
Why not expect a rebound in investment? Because investment is competitive. If you can invest in the EU knowing you have access to the bigger market and the regulatory environment is well understood you reduce your risk relative to investing in the UK. If you have operations in the UK you will probably want to keep them going and avoid the dislocation of moving and so you put in dollops of investment to keep them going. But the big investments will go to where you have greater certainty. That pretty much the case across lots of industries.
Staying up until the small hours to watch the results almost completely agog, and then getting up only a few hours later to go to work wasn't my best plan but I felt a small part of history. Last night felt like the Brexit vote, there was a huge undercurrent completely missed in the election coverage that was only felt when the votes were counted. The working classes of the north and Wales gave Corbyn one last chance in 2017, but after that he failed them and the Labour party are so divorced from their own base they didn't even know. 2017 wasn't a new base, it was a peak.
One big thing; People don't seem to want social housing, they just want to own their own house. Goes back to the wars between Benn and Kinnock in the early 80's after Foot, the former saw houses as just stock to be owned by the state whilst the latter had grown up in a council house and knew people yearned for a home that was theirs.
Hmmm. David Lammy on Sky being as gormless as ever ... slightly slower growth is apparently a huge drop in GDP, without any realisation that different measures can be taken.
Gertjan Vlieghe, a member of the Bank of England monetary policy committee, said that since the vote in June 2016 [to start 2019], the economy had lost about 2% of GDP compared with a scenario where there had been no significant domestic economic events.
“That 2% of GDP is not trivial, that’s £40bn or if you prefer it in bus units, it’s £800m a week.”
The more worrying, if entirely predictable, bit:
He said business investment in Britain had been stuck around zero, with a drop of 3.7% in 2018, despite an upswing worth about 6% annually in the rest of the G7.
Don't expect investment to rebound now Johnson is in charge.
why not ?
Why not expect a rebound in investment? Because investment is competitive. If you can invest in the EU knowing you have access to the bigger market and the regulatory environment is well understood you reduce your risk relative to investing in the UK. If you have operations in the UK you will probably want to keep them going and avoid the dislocation of moving and so you put in dollops of investment to keep them going. But the big investments will go to where you have greater certainty. That pretty much the case across lots of industries.
except not all investment is driven by being in the EU, a lot of it is because the UK is an attractive place to invest anyway. The current uncertainty has been the log jam, now that's gone there is a back log of projects which can be released.
Yes I think that was one factor. Although the error this time was about two SDs, there have been two errors of similar magnitude relative to the model, 92 and 79, both in the Tories' favour. The result this most resembles is 79, when the model was off but the polls were right. 92 was different because the model was off but the polls were off even more. I still think the model is basically sound and I still trust leader ratings more than the polls themselves.
Leader ratings 2 months before the election still work. In campaign clearly diverged though - I said this here a few weeks back, so not hindsight talking :-)
I was using the approximately monthly data based on the last rating before the election not the high frequency intra campaign numbers which don't even ask the same question and so can't be plugged into the historical relationship. The model was out by a normal sized error having called 15 and 17 to within 1pp.
On constituency tips, may I point out that I tipped the Conservatives in Wimbledon, Keighley, Peterborough, Don Valley and Bridgend (and warned people off backing them in Hemsworth, Coventry North West and Newport East), suggested that the Lib Dems were far from a done deal in Cheltenham and advised selling them on the spreads (when their sell price was in the 40s).
I'll not mention Westmorland & Lonsdale or Scotland generally if you don't.
It's the modesty of pb regulars that really gets me at times like these.
I`m not complimenting Meeks - I was on Westmorland & Lonsdale
One big thing; People don't seem to want social housing, they just want to own their own house. Goes back to the wars between Benn and Kinnock in the early 80's after Foot, the former saw houses as just stock to be owned by the state whilst the latter had grown up in a council house and knew people yearned for a home that was theirs.
the big advantage of owning is after 25 years you stop paying for your accommodation
Well done, most PBers seem to have got this election right. I wish and pray that the country moves forwards and prospers. I managed to break even, at the very last. Thanks to tips from this site, including Portsmouth South, Winchester and Canterbury. Still waiting for Bet 365 to decide my under 67.5% voter turnout bet. Wish everyone a Merry Xmas and a Happy New year in advance Au Revoir
It was meant tongue in cheek, a response to the patronising comment about the yoof. Hence the cheeky emoji. Obvs I want all people to live out their alotted timespan in good health and happiness really.
When I said that it was too easy to rush to explain Labour's poor result in a way that suits pre-existing prejudice and received wisdom there was no need to prove my point so immediately!
I know I said this last night, but Squeaky Osborne and Eddie Spheroids were really good on ITV last night. Kept the partisan shit to a minimum, which proper criticism / analysis.
While Newnsight and QT are shit shows and This Week has gone, somebody should give those two a show.
Why not expect a rebound in investment? Because investment is competitive. If you can invest in the EU knowing you have access to the bigger market and the regulatory environment is well understood you reduce your risk relative to investing in the UK. If you have operations in the UK you will probably want to keep them going and avoid the dislocation of moving and so you put in dollops of investment to keep them going. But the big investments will go to where you have greater certainty. That pretty much the case across lots of industries.
You consistently overestimate the significance of the EU.
The threat of Corbyn nationalising [or simply driving out of business] your investments must have been a depressing concept to anyone considering investing in the UK. That threat has been lifted now.
Plus the threat of Corbyn whacking up corporation tax and every other tax he could think of on businesses. That threat has been lifted now.
Plus then the depressing uncertainty of Parliament unable to make a decision on Brexit. That threat is now lifted too.
Why not expect a rebound in investment? Because investment is competitive. If you can invest in the EU knowing you have access to the bigger market and the regulatory environment is well understood you reduce your risk relative to investing in the UK. If you have operations in the UK you will probably want to keep them going and avoid the dislocation of moving and so you put in dollops of investment to keep them going. But the big investments will go to where you have greater certainty. That pretty much the case across lots of industries.
except not all investment is driven by being in the EU, a lot of it is because the UK is an attractive place to invest anyway. The current uncertainty has been the log jam, now that's gone there is a back log of projects which can be released.
Funnily I agree with all your statements except the last. The uncertainty won't end now, nor will the competitive disadvantage of being outside the larger market without a clearly regulated access.
I know I said this last night, but Squeaky Osborne and Eddie Spheroids were really good on ITV last night. Kept the partisan shit to a minimum, which proper criticism / analysis.
While Newnsight and QT are shit shows and This Week has gone, somebody should give those two a show.
Definitely. Chuck Peston and get this pair on weekly.
Another loser out of this election (out of many). The various twitter accounts or forecasters who kept “reweighting” opinion polls to show the “true” result (I.e the one they wanted).
Have we heard from that centrist-what’s-his-face-red-phone chap recently?
I know I said this last night, but Squeaky Osborne and Eddie Spheroids were really good on ITV last night. Kept the partisan shit to a minimum, which proper criticism / analysis.
While Newnsight and QT are shit shows and This Week has gone, somebody should give those two a show.
Definitely. Chuck Peston and get this pair on weekly.
Peston are garbage. We know he hates Boris, that's fine, but his analysis was BS. He was talking utter nonsense about the polling from campaign period, to try and back up his whinging.
Why not expect a rebound in investment? Because investment is competitive. If you can invest in the EU knowing you have access to the bigger market and the regulatory environment is well understood you reduce your risk relative to investing in the UK. If you have operations in the UK you will probably want to keep them going and avoid the dislocation of moving and so you put in dollops of investment to keep them going. But the big investments will go to where you have greater certainty. That pretty much the case across lots of industries.
except not all investment is driven by being in the EU, a lot of it is because the UK is an attractive place to invest anyway. The current uncertainty has been the log jam, now that's gone there is a back log of projects which can be released.
Funnily I agree with all your statements except the last. The uncertainty won't end now, nor will the competitive disadvantage of being outside the larger market without a clearly regulated access.
The competitive advantage of being a flexible market outside the EU will be what we get now.
If the EU is so special perhaps you can point out which developed, western, English speaking nations perform worse than equivalent EU nations?
Another loser out of this election (out of many). The various twitter accounts or forecasters who kept “reweighting” opinion polls to show the “true” result (I.e the one they wanted).
Have we heard from that centrist-what’s-his-face-red-phone chap recently?
Still claiming it was the pollsters who were wrong and because their data was so flawed it meant his analysis was messed up.
Another loser out of this election (out of many). The various twitter accounts or forecasters who kept “reweighting” opinion polls to show the “true” result (I.e the one they wanted).
Have we heard from that centrist-what’s-his-face-red-phone chap recently?
I know - that someone like Jess Phillips or Angela Rayner are being thought of as leadership potential shows the state we are in with our politicians.
I think would-be politicians should have to pass an intelligence test. Cummings once pointed out that some research or other showed that less than 50% of MPs could state the probability of heads coming up twice in two coin tosses.
One big thing; People don't seem to want social housing, they just want to own their own house. Goes back to the wars between Benn and Kinnock in the early 80's after Foot, the former saw houses as just stock to be owned by the state whilst the latter had grown up in a council house and knew people yearned for a home that was theirs.
the big advantage of owning is after 25 years you stop paying for your accommodation
And you can do what you want to the place, rather than asking permission.
Why not expect a rebound in investment? Because investment is competitive. If you can invest in the EU knowing you have access to the bigger market and the regulatory environment is well understood you reduce your risk relative to investing in the UK. If you have operations in the UK you will probably want to keep them going and avoid the dislocation of moving and so you put in dollops of investment to keep them going. But the big investments will go to where you have greater certainty. That pretty much the case across lots of industries.
except not all investment is driven by being in the EU, a lot of it is because the UK is an attractive place to invest anyway. The current uncertainty has been the log jam, now that's gone there is a back log of projects which can be released.
Funnily I agree with all your statements except the last. The uncertainty won't end now, nor will the competitive disadvantage of being outside the larger market without a clearly regulated access.
Outside of the EU I suspect the only way we will be as attractive a place to invest as we were before is via significant deregulation. Which is why I think it's unlikely that we seek a close trade relationship with the EU and regulatory alignment. Hopefully we will find out more in the Budget.
Another loser out of this election (out of many). The various twitter accounts or forecasters who kept “reweighting” opinion polls to show the “true” result (I.e the one they wanted).
Have we heard from that centrist-what’s-his-face-red-phone chap recently?
Still claiming it was the pollsters who were wrong and because their data was so flawed it meant his analysis was messed up.
He got really nasty the other night.
I actually had a look at some of his turnout arguments because I like to look at the data rather than just calling it bollocks. It was bollocks.
Peston are garbage. We know he hates Boris, that's fine, but his analysis was BS. He was talking utter nonsense about the polling from campaign period, to try and back up his whinging.
Mmm. As we also know that Kuenssberg LOVES "Boris" and is an utter disgrace.
Another loser out of this election (out of many). The various twitter accounts or forecasters who kept “reweighting” opinion polls to show the “true” result (I.e the one they wanted).
Have we heard from that centrist-what’s-his-face-red-phone chap recently?
Why not expect a rebound in investment? Because investment is competitive. If you can invest in the EU knowing you have access to the bigger market and the regulatory environment is well understood you reduce your risk relative to investing in the UK. If you have operations in the UK you will probably want to keep them going and avoid the dislocation of moving and so you put in dollops of investment to keep them going. But the big investments will go to where you have greater certainty. That pretty much the case across lots of industries.
except not all investment is driven by being in the EU, a lot of it is because the UK is an attractive place to invest anyway. The current uncertainty has been the log jam, now that's gone there is a back log of projects which can be released.
Funnily I agree with all your statements except the last. The uncertainty won't end now, nor will the competitive disadvantage of being outside the larger market without a clearly regulated access.
given we have a massive BOP deficit with that market which has only grown wheres the advantage ? A lot of what we call investment doesn't do much to help the real economy flats in London or selling businesses to be closed and off shored are not the type of investment we need.
I know I said this last night, but Squeaky Osborne and Eddie Spheroids were really good on ITV last night. Kept the partisan shit to a minimum, which proper criticism / analysis.
While Newnsight and QT are shit shows and This Week has gone, somebody should give those two a show.
Definitely. Chuck Peston and get this pair on weekly.
Peston are garbage. We know he hates Boris, that's fine, but his analysis was BS. He was talking utter nonsense about the polling from campaign period, to try and back up his whinging.
Peston looked like a man whose dog had shat in his bed. Agree wholeheartedly about squeaky and spheroids. Particularly enjoed Ed takibg on Jon Lansmann and George's take on the DUP's strategy over the last two years.
Another loser out of this election (out of many). The various twitter accounts or forecasters who kept “reweighting” opinion polls to show the “true” result (I.e the one they wanted).
Have we heard from that centrist-what’s-his-face-red-phone chap recently?
Can someone help me with the case for Keir Starmer as leader? I don't get why he is favourite. As far as I can see he suffers from:
1. Being a man, when Labour are very aware they have never elected a female leader; 2. Being very metropolitan elite, when Labour are reeling from losing traditional working class seats; 3. Being very Remain (by Labour standards), when Labour reckon they just lost a bunch of votes for their Brexit position and won't want the issue to come back up again (i.e. they would rather have no policy on it now they don't need to); and 4. A notable critic of Corbyn for some time, so the Corbynite wing of the party (most of it) may not want him.
He's very articulate and covered his brief well, but he hasn't even said he's running.
Peston are garbage. We know he hates Boris, that's fine, but his analysis was BS. He was talking utter nonsense about the polling from campaign period, to try and back up his whinging.
Mmm. As we also know that Kuenssberg LOVES "Boris" and is an utter disgrace.
Not sure what Laura K has to do with ITV's election coverage. I don't care that Peston isn't a Boris fan, my point was an he was employed as the "expert" pundit, and then was inaccurately reporting what the polls said over the GE campaign. e.g. He talked about Labour narrowing the gap from the start.
When I said that it was too easy to rush to explain Labour's poor result in a way that suits pre-existing prejudice and received wisdom there was no need to prove my point so immediately!
👎
Its easy because its right. This wasn't unexpected, 170 of Corbyn's own MPs said they had no confidence in him and people have been predicting this for years.
What you're doing is akin to an anti-vaxxer wondering why their kid is sick saying its too early to judge on received wisdom.
Why not expect a rebound in investment? Because investment is competitive. If you can invest in the EU knowing you have access to the bigger market and the regulatory environment is well understood you reduce your risk relative to investing in the UK. If you have operations in the UK you will probably want to keep them going and avoid the dislocation of moving and so you put in dollops of investment to keep them going. But the big investments will go to where you have greater certainty. That pretty much the case across lots of industries.
except not all investment is driven by being in the EU, a lot of it is because the UK is an attractive place to invest anyway. The current uncertainty has been the log jam, now that's gone there is a back log of projects which can be released.
Funnily I agree with all your statements except the last. The uncertainty won't end now, nor will the competitive disadvantage of being outside the larger market without a clearly regulated access.
Outside of the EU I suspect the only way we will be as attractive a place to invest as we were before is via significant deregulation. Which is why I think it's unlikely that we seek a close trade relationship with the EU and regulatory alignment. Hopefully we will find out more in the Budget.
I believe the US Commerce Department reached out to US industries after the referendum to ask what their post Brexit priorities were for a potential trade deal with the UK. No 1 was for the UK to stay in the Single Market because they wanted to protect their investments in the UK.
Another loser out of this election (out of many). The various twitter accounts or forecasters who kept “reweighting” opinion polls to show the “true” result (I.e the one they wanted).
Have we heard from that centrist-what’s-his-face-red-phone chap recently?
One big thing; People don't seem to want social housing, they just want to own their own house. Goes back to the wars between Benn and Kinnock in the early 80's after Foot, the former saw houses as just stock to be owned by the state whilst the latter had grown up in a council house and knew people yearned for a home that was theirs.
the big advantage of owning is after 25 years you stop paying for your accommodation
And you can do what you want to the place, rather than asking permission.
And you can sell it and downsize, you can leave it to your children/grandchildren etc etc.
My parents started off in a council house, they then bought as soon as they could (in the middle of a property boom). Paid off the mortgage early through graft, and then saved to help us buy a house when we grew up.
Social housing has a place, but for most people, it is not their aspiration for life.
I could tell Dr Moderate wasn't the full sandwich when he posted a series of tweets showing how an average opinion poll lead of 12% was actually 2%.
That was real shark jumping.
I could get onboard thinking that Flat Cap Fred might not turn vote Tory or loads of students might vote, but a 10% lead "really" being 2.x%, because ALL the pollsters had all their weighing totally wrongs. Jog on. And YouGov pointed out what he was saying wasn't valid and he still went on about the same stuff.
One big thing; People don't seem to want social housing, they just want to own their own house. Goes back to the wars between Benn and Kinnock in the early 80's after Foot, the former saw houses as just stock to be owned by the state whilst the latter had grown up in a council house and knew people yearned for a home that was theirs.
the big advantage of owning is after 25 years you stop paying for your accommodation
Why not expect a rebound in investment? Because investment is competitive. If you can invest in the EU knowing you have access to the bigger market and the regulatory environment is well understood you reduce your risk relative to investing in the UK. If you have operations in the UK you will probably want to keep them going and avoid the dislocation of moving and so you put in dollops of investment to keep them going. But the big investments will go to where you have greater certainty. That pretty much the case across lots of industries.
except not all investment is driven by being in the EU, a lot of it is because the UK is an attractive place to invest anyway. The current uncertainty has been the log jam, now that's gone there is a back log of projects which can be released.
Funnily I agree with all your statements except the last. The uncertainty won't end now, nor will the competitive disadvantage of being outside the larger market without a clearly regulated access.
given we have a massive BOP deficit with that market which has only grown wheres the advantage ? A lot of what we call investment doesn't do much to help the real economy flats in London or selling businesses to be closed and off shored are not the type of investment we need.
The BoP deficit is a consequene of what (and how much) we demand, not who our free trade deal is with.
So long as we continue to demand more wine than we produce, we'll have a deficit in it. Switching that deficit from (say) France to New Zealand doesn't affect the overall number, just who it's with.
Another loser out of this election (out of many). The various twitter accounts or forecasters who kept “reweighting” opinion polls to show the “true” result (I.e the one they wanted).
Have we heard from that centrist-what’s-his-face-red-phone chap recently?
Why not expect a rebound in investment? Because investment is competitive. If you can invest in the EU knowing you have access to the bigger market and the regulatory environment is well understood you reduce your risk relative to investing in the UK. If you have operations in the UK you will probably want to keep them going and avoid the dislocation of moving and so you put in dollops of investment to keep them going. But the big investments will go to where you have greater certainty. That pretty much the case across lots of industries.
except not all investment is driven by being in the EU, a lot of it is because the UK is an attractive place to invest anyway. The current uncertainty has been the log jam, now that's gone there is a back log of projects which can be released.
Funnily I agree with all your statements except the last. The uncertainty won't end now, nor will the competitive disadvantage of being outside the larger market without a clearly regulated access.
The competitive advantage of being a flexible market outside the EU will be what we get now.
If the EU is so special perhaps you can point out which developed, western, English speaking nations perform worse than equivalent EU nations?
Excluding the US, which is sui generis, you refer I think to Canada, Australia and New Zealand that are largely resource base economies. The great thing about resources is that they are highly tradeable.
So, that Labour shadow Cab member who claimed his truth to the power comments on how things were up north and in Midlands for Labour were just a silly jest.
Did he hang on?
Bet the Corbynistas love him even more now he was proved right.
Not only did Corbyn effect the Labour share but he also made it harder for the Lib Dems to pick up more seats by terrifying large amounts of pro EU Tories into sticking with the party .
See Winchester....the nutso manifesto clearly scared the shit out of voters there.
One big thing; People don't seem to want social housing, they just want to own their own house. Goes back to the wars between Benn and Kinnock in the early 80's after Foot, the former saw houses as just stock to be owned by the state whilst the latter had grown up in a council house and knew people yearned for a home that was theirs.
the big advantage of owning is after 25 years you stop paying for your accommodation
And it's an asset to pass to your kids
I would have thought it would be more sensible to downsize when it gets too bug for you (after your kids leave home), and which allows you to use equity in it to pay for your living expenses.
One big thing; People don't seem to want social housing, they just want to own their own house. Goes back to the wars between Benn and Kinnock in the early 80's after Foot, the former saw houses as just stock to be owned by the state whilst the latter had grown up in a council house and knew people yearned for a home that was theirs.
the big advantage of owning is after 25 years you stop paying for your accommodation
And it's an asset to pass to your kids
more likely passed on to your local BtL shyster, if your rental markets anything like ours
Piers Morgan is a moron . And clearly doesn’t understand that an election is a mix of issues . All polls for the last 18 months have shown leads for Remain .
I know I said this last night, but Squeaky Osborne and Eddie Spheroids were really good on ITV last night. Kept the partisan shit to a minimum, which proper criticism / analysis.
While Newnsight and QT are shit shows and This Week has gone, somebody should give those two a show.
Definitely. Chuck Peston and get this pair on weekly.
Peston are garbage. We know he hates Boris, that's fine, but his analysis was BS. He was talking utter nonsense about the polling from campaign period, to try and back up his whinging.
Peston looked like a man whose dog had shat in his bed. Agree wholeheartedly about squeaky and spheroids. Particularly enjoed Ed takibg on Jon Lansmann and George's take on the DUP's strategy over the last two years.
Peston was never up to the job of political editor. Everything he says is pretty much always the reverse of what actually happens. His “musings” are almost always wrong. His finger is so far off the pulse it’s incredible.
FTSE up 100 points, pound up two cents against the dollar and to a ten year high against the Euro.
What are you smoking? GBP Vs EUR its back where it was after the Brexit vote, still well below 2015 levels.
No smoking anything, but I'll admit to drinking a bit! Champagne mostly.
You're right. My source was CNN who reported it wrong. It's a three year high vs the Euro, from Brexit referendum day. Pound is higher than it was ten years ago vs the Euro.
The pound is now only down 14% thanks to the cockeyed horseshittery of Brexit. Rejoice and praise the economic mastery of the People's Government!
A decade ago, the pound was 1.10 vs the Euro. Today, it's 1.20, that's 9% to the good.
In Feb 2016, when Cameron confirmed the referendum, it was £1 = 1.30 euro. In the six months prior to this it was £1 = 1.40 euro. It fell from there mainly in anticipation of the referendum.
Brexit has knackered our currency - at least in the short term.
Nowadays when I take my lot to the Caribbean we have to consider fucking 4 star hotels.
But, once a final FTA is signed and sealed, the pound should rise again to a new stable level.
Another loser out of this election (out of many). The various twitter accounts or forecasters who kept “reweighting” opinion polls to show the “true” result (I.e the one they wanted).
Have we heard from that centrist-what’s-his-face-red-phone chap recently?
I know I said this last night, but Squeaky Osborne and Eddie Spheroids were really good on ITV last night. Kept the partisan shit to a minimum, which proper criticism / analysis.
While Newnsight and QT are shit shows and This Week has gone, somebody should give those two a show.
Definitely. Chuck Peston and get this pair on weekly.
Peston are garbage. We know he hates Boris, that's fine, but his analysis was BS. He was talking utter nonsense about the polling from campaign period, to try and back up his whinging.
Peston looked like a man whose dog had shat in his bed. Agree wholeheartedly about squeaky and spheroids. Particularly enjoed Ed takibg on Jon Lansmann and George's take on the DUP's strategy over the last two years.
Peston was never up to the job of political correspondent. Everything he says is pretty much always the reverse of what actually happens. His “musings” are almost always wrong. His finger is so far off the pulse it’s incredible.
He knows nowt, he repeat briefings verbatim with no attempt at analysis and doesn't understand the UK outwith the M25.
Can someone help me with the case for Keir Starmer as leader? I don't get why he is favourite. As far as I can see he suffers from:
1. Being a man, when Labour are very aware they have never elected a female leader; 2. Being very metropolitan elite, when Labour are reeling from losing traditional working class seats; 3. Being very Remain (by Labour standards), when Labour reckon they just lost a bunch of votes for their Brexit position and won't want the issue to come back up again (i.e. they would rather have no policy on it now they don't need to); and 4. A notable critic of Corbyn for some time, so the Corbynite wing of the party (most of it) may not want him.
He's very articulate and covered his brief well, but he hasn't even said he's running.
Agree he can't be the favourite. He is sane, articulate and educated; there is no evidence that he believes the Marxist claptrap of the sect.
The only thing which would raise him in the odds is: (1) Laura Pidcock has lost her seat so there is one fewer unelectable illiterate to jump ahead of him - but there are still plenty around such as RLB and Burgon; and (2) The shame and disgrace which is Labour might bring about some black swan event by which it could be possible that they decide to become electable again. Though if they did there are several better candidates. Outsider but not impossible.
Hmmm. David Lammy on Sky being as gormless as ever ... slightly slower growth is apparently a huge drop in GDP, without any realisation that different measures can be taken.
Gertjan Vlieghe
“That 2% of GDP is not trivial, that’s £40bn or if you prefer it in bus units, it’s £800m a week.”
It's
2% or so GDP relative cost so far of Brexit is a consensus figure of serious analysts however.
Hmmm. David Lammy on Sky being as gormless as ever ... slightly slower growth is apparently a huge drop in GDP, without any realisation that different measures can be taken.
Gertjan Vlieghe, a member of the Bank of England monetary policy committee, said that since the vote in June 2016 [to start 2019], the economy had lost about 2% of GDP compared with a scenario where there had been no significant domestic economic events.
“That 2% of GDP is not trivial, that’s £40bn or if you prefer it in bus units, it’s £800m a week.”
The more worrying, if entirely predictable, bit:
He said business investment in Britain had been stuck around zero, with a drop of 3.7% in 2018, despite an upswing worth about 6% annually in the rest of the G7.
Don't expect investment to rebound now Johnson is in charge.
why not ?
Why not expect a rebound in investment? Because investment is competitive. If you can invest in the EU knowing you have access to the bigger market and the regulatory environment is well understood you reduce your risk relative to investing in the UK. If you have operations in the UK you will probably want to keep them going and avoid the dislocation of moving and so you put in dollops of investment to keep them going. But the big investments will go to where you have greater certainty. That pretty much the case across lots of industries.
Spoiler: no-one gives a f*ck about 1-2% GDP growth over a 10-year horizon.
Remain is over. This is now about building a new political and economic settlement both with Europe, and worldwide, for the long-term.
Hmmm. David Lammy on Sky being as gormless as ever ... slightly slower growth is apparently a huge drop in GDP, without any realisation that different measures can be taken.
Gertjan Vlieghe, a member of the Bank of England monetary policy committee, said that since the vote in June 2016 [to start 2019], the economy had lost about 2% of GDP compared with a scenario where there had been no significant domestic economic events.
“That 2% of GDP is not trivial, that’s £40bn or if you prefer it in bus units, it’s £800m a week.”
The more worrying, if entirely predictable, bit:
He said business investment in Britain had been stuck around zero, with a drop of 3.7% in 2018, despite an upswing worth about 6% annually in the rest of the G7.
Don't expect investment to rebound now Johnson is in charge.
why not ?
Why not expect a rebound in investment? Because investment is competitive. If you can invest in the EU knowing you have access to the bigger market and the regulatory environment is well understood you reduce your risk relative to investing in the UK. If you have operations in the UK you will probably want to keep them going and avoid the dislocation of moving and so you put in dollops of investment to keep them going. But the big investments will go to where you have greater certainty. That pretty much the case across lots of industries.
Spoiler: no-one gives a f*ck about 1-2% GDP growth over a 10-year horizon.
Remain is over. This is now about building a new political and economic settlement both with Europe, and worldwide, for the long-term.
The country is set for relentless decline for the while because affluent reactionaries like you decided to give it a permanent handicap so you could indulge your unfathomable loathing of the EU. But the public is no more persuaded of the wisdom of Brexit than before, it just wants it out of the way for now. If it turns into the dismal failure that all signs indicate, they’ll look at it again.
Another loser out of this election (out of many). The various twitter accounts or forecasters who kept “reweighting” opinion polls to show the “true” result (I.e the one they wanted).
Have we heard from that centrist-what’s-his-face-red-phone chap recently?
Can someone help me with the case for Keir Starmer as leader? I don't get why he is favourite. As far as I can see he suffers from:
1. Being a man, when Labour are very aware they have never elected a female leader; 2. Being very metropolitan elite, when Labour are reeling from losing traditional working class seats; 3. Being very Remain (by Labour standards), when Labour reckon they just lost a bunch of votes for their Brexit position and won't want the issue to come back up again (i.e. they would rather have no policy on it now they don't need to); and 4. A notable critic of Corbyn for some time, so the Corbynite wing of the party (most of it) may not want him.
He's very articulate and covered his brief well, but he hasn't even said he's running.
Agree he can't be the favourite. He is sane, articulate and educated; there is no evidence that he believes the Marxist claptrap of the sect.
The only thing which would raise him in the odds is: (1) Laura Pidcock has lost her seat so there is one fewer unelectable illiterate to jump ahead of him - but there are still plenty around such as RLB and Burgon; and (2) The shame and disgrace which is Labour might bring about some black swan event by which it could be possible that they decide to become electable again. Though if they did there are several better candidates. Outsider but not impossible.
He is a grown up with a brain, so is notable on the Labour front bench. He is also actually from a working class background, unlike most of the toytown Trots.
If I were him, I'm not sure I'd fancy it right now. 2024 doesn't look that winnable from here.
Comments
I'm taking my time before pronouncing. So easy to interpret in a way that suits pre-existing prejudice and received wisdom.
There will be none of that from me.
Brexit has knackered our currency - at least in the short term.
Nowadays when I take my lot to the Caribbean we have to consider fucking 4 star hotels.
To have any chance in the next 10 years they need someone along the lines of Wes Streeting.
I also have a further policy idea. I would reintroduce the hereditary baronetcy, but it would be connected to owning a particular property, and living in it for a minimum number of days a year. As long as you and your direct descendents live there (paying taxes and employing locals) you get to keep being 'Sirs'. I would then create baronet titles and attach them to a number of derelict and at risk properties, to encourage wealthy buyers to purchase those properties, do them up, and stay there, thus joining (in time) the British upper class. If you sell, you lose the title and your buyer doesn't get it.
Under 24s need to grow up.
Corbyn and his history and ideology
Blocking and dithering on Brexit
Economic illiteracy
Too left wing
It's almost as if they realise it's now shit or bust for them.
get them a house and ditch uni fees
FWIW, OECD figures against G7:
https://data.oecd.org/chart/5N5D
UK matching G7 until 2016 and underperforming since. Why not expect a rebound in investment? Because investment is competitive. If you can invest in the EU knowing you have access to the bigger market and the regulatory environment is well understood you reduce your risk relative to investing in the UK. If you have operations in the UK you will probably want to keep them going and avoid the dislocation of moving and so you put in dollops of investment to keep them going. But the big investments will go to where you have greater certainty. That pretty much the case across lots of industries.
Last night felt like the Brexit vote, there was a huge undercurrent completely missed in the election coverage that was only felt when the votes were counted. The working classes of the north and Wales gave Corbyn one last chance in 2017, but after that he failed them and the Labour party are so divorced from their own base they didn't even know.
2017 wasn't a new base, it was a peak.
It's not astrophysics, Corbyn, Momentum,Brexit, Racism & a Marxist manifesto, the rest was fine.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cdi9oWWEk_w
😀😀😀
Well I called it spot on and thus made a packet but it never helps much.
Still feel a bit nauseous.
Trump is shortening big time too just to complete the grisly picture.
It was quite an incredible how she managed to screw it up, after what was almost a perfect storm for the Lib Dems.
https://data.oecd.org/chart/5N5D Why not expect a rebound in investment? Because investment is competitive. If you can invest in the EU knowing you have access to the bigger market and the regulatory environment is well understood you reduce your risk relative to investing in the UK. If you have operations in the UK you will probably want to keep them going and avoid the dislocation of moving and so you put in dollops of investment to keep them going. But the big investments will go to where you have greater certainty. That pretty much the case across lots of industries.
except not all investment is driven by being in the EU, a lot of it is because the UK is an attractive place to invest anyway. The current uncertainty has been the log jam, now that's gone there is a back log of projects which can be released.
I managed to break even, at the very last. Thanks to tips from this site, including Portsmouth South, Winchester and Canterbury. Still waiting for Bet 365 to decide my under 67.5% voter turnout bet.
Wish everyone a Merry Xmas and a Happy New year in advance
Au Revoir
Oh well at least Mrs May will have good company...
When I said that it was too easy to rush to explain Labour's poor result in a way that suits pre-existing prejudice and received wisdom there was no need to prove my point so immediately!
👎
While Newnsight and QT are shit shows and This Week has gone, somebody should give those two a show.
The threat of Corbyn nationalising [or simply driving out of business] your investments must have been a depressing concept to anyone considering investing in the UK. That threat has been lifted now.
Plus the threat of Corbyn whacking up corporation tax and every other tax he could think of on businesses. That threat has been lifted now.
Plus then the depressing uncertainty of Parliament unable to make a decision on Brexit. That threat is now lifted too.
I would definitely expect a rebound now.
Have we heard from that centrist-what’s-his-face-red-phone chap recently?
If the EU is so special perhaps you can point out which developed, western, English speaking nations perform worse than equivalent EU nations?
He got really nasty the other night.
https://twitter.com/centrist_phone/status/1205426716212109312
https://twitter.com/centrist_phone/status/1205457825654353926
Agree wholeheartedly about squeaky and spheroids. Particularly enjoed Ed takibg on Jon Lansmann and George's take on the DUP's strategy over the last two years.
1. Being a man, when Labour are very aware they have never elected a female leader;
2. Being very metropolitan elite, when Labour are reeling from losing traditional working class seats;
3. Being very Remain (by Labour standards), when Labour reckon they just lost a bunch of votes for their Brexit position and won't want the issue to come back up again (i.e. they would rather have no policy on it now they don't need to); and
4. A notable critic of Corbyn for some time, so the Corbynite wing of the party (most of it) may not want him.
He's very articulate and covered his brief well, but he hasn't even said he's running.
Ed Balls showed how you do criticism.
What you're doing is akin to an anti-vaxxer wondering why their kid is sick saying its too early to judge on received wisdom.
Layla Moran
Wera Hobhouse
Sarah Olney
Christine Jardine
Wendy Chamberlain
Daisy Cooper
Munira Wilson
7 / 11
My parents started off in a council house, they then bought as soon as they could (in the middle of a property boom). Paid off the mortgage early through graft, and then saved to help us buy a house when we grew up.
Social housing has a place, but for most people, it is not their aspiration for life.
I could get onboard thinking that Flat Cap Fred might not turn vote Tory or loads of students might vote, but a 10% lead "really" being 2.x%, because ALL the pollsters had all their weighing totally wrongs. Jog on. And YouGov pointed out what he was saying wasn't valid and he still went on about the same stuff.
So long as we continue to demand more wine than we produce, we'll have a deficit in it. Switching that deficit from (say) France to New Zealand doesn't affect the overall number, just who it's with.
https://twitter.com/CarbonFePhases/status/1205522840717582336?s=20
Did he hang on?
Bet the Corbynistas love him even more now he was proved right.
AND he has terrible intonation.
The only thing which would raise him in the odds is: (1) Laura Pidcock has lost her seat so there is one fewer unelectable illiterate to jump ahead of him - but there are still plenty around such as RLB and Burgon; and (2) The shame and disgrace which is Labour might bring about some black swan event by which it could be possible that they decide to become electable again. Though if they did there are several better candidates. Outsider but not impossible.
Remain is over. This is now about building a new political and economic settlement both with Europe, and worldwide, for the long-term.
If I were him, I'm not sure I'd fancy it right now. 2024 doesn't look that winnable from here.