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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Swinson’s successor needs to be someone untainted by the coali

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  • Alistair said:

    Was Kirsteen Hair the one who didn't vote in EuRef because it was too hard?

    Yes!!! :D:D:D

    A diddy of the first order! :D
    That was a pleasing defeat, she is an idiot.

    I think Cat Boyd, darling of the Scottish left didn't vote in EU ref either. She was last seen on Twitter exhorting everyone to vote SLab to be 'allowed' a Section 30 order, and getting destroyed in the replies.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,484

    speedy2 said:

    Election polling have put together a list of targets for 2024. For Lab they now need a 10% swing on UNS to get a majority of 2. That includes a lot of gains in Scotland. Without any Scottish gains it would be 13% swing required

    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/labour#UKParliament

    You have to look close to see which Labour MP can appeal to Northern Working Class voters and the London membership and to be hard on the SNP.

    Labour need that hat trick.
    - “... to be hard on the SNP.“!?!

    I see that you misunderstand the lessons of UK GE 19.

    SLab need to do exactly the opposite. They need to be thoroughly, completely and convincingly, 100% pro-Scotland.

    Otherwise they’re fucked for good.
    There is room for a 'Scotland' party that doesn't support independence. But I don't think it will come from the left.
    It is impossible to be pro-Scotland while genuflecting before The Clown.
    Yes, of course dear.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Possibly, likely, counting my chickens here, but, now that it seems that Brexit will actually happen, it was probably for the good that the referendum result was tested to within an inch of its life before enactment, albeit in the free market kind of way it has rather than a second go at it. Leave won the referendum, then the only party willing to enact the result won a Majority in a subsequent GE with the policy in its manifesto. Double lock!
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751

    The LDs need to find a way of making their peace with leavers. They spent 3 years belittling half the population (e.g. exotic spresm) and can only attract a quarter of the other half.

    I'm afraid it's more likely they'll think it's a wizard wheeze to become "the Back In Party." BIP. You heard it here first,
  • FF43 said:

    Layla Moran is that rare breed of politician that does human, like Charlie Kennedy before her. Lib Dems could do worse at this point, and probably would given their very limited MP gene pool

    Corbyn was very good at 'doing human'.
    No he wasn’t. The man was an automaton. A stereotype. A joke. Have you never seen Citizen Smith?
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,590
    St Ives due soon?
  • Isn't the answer obvious? Make Chuka leader. Find him a safe seat for the next GE, then sit back and watch the votes flood in. Boris will be hunched and bloated figure by then - worn out, distracted and completely unappealing; in contrast Chuka's sizzle will make the voters swoon.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,212
    Varadkar kept that schtum during the campaign...…….
  • Mr. Monkey, it was quite an unexpected results.

    Kudos to the pollsters, many of whom did well at forecasting the electorate's fickle preferences.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    maaarsh said:

    St Ives due soon?

    They said 2.30pm originally.
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    Andy_JS said:

    Is anyone prepared to call next year's US election for the incumbent?

    I can't stand the man. But Wisconsin seems to be going the wrong way for the Dems
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    So what’s happening with Bercow? There must be odds for him doing Strictly next year.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    isam said:

    Possibly, likely, counting my chickens here, but, now that it seems that Brexit will actually happen, it was probably for the good that the referendum result was tested to within an inch of its life before enactment, albeit in the free market kind of way it has rather than a second go at it. Leave won the referendum, then the only party willing to enact the result won a Majority in a subsequent GE with the policy in its manifesto. Double lock!

    Yep. It is unambiguously the will of the people. We'll be out by 1st Feb.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,494

    maaarsh said:

    St Ives due soon?

    They said 2.30pm originally.
    it depends on whether the weather is preventing the ballot boxes getting off the Scilly Isles.
  • Isn't the answer obvious? Make Chuka leader. Find him a safe seat for the next GE, then sit back and watch the votes flood in. Boris will be hunched and bloated figure by then - worn out, distracted and completely unappealing; in contrast Chuka's sizzle will make the voters swoon.

    You need to have a seat to be leader...
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208

    Jo Swinson reckons she smashed the glass ceiling by becoming the first female Liberal Democrat party leader. Leading to broken glass falling on her ...

    Really!!???

    We've had two female Prime Ministers, two devolved female First Ministers and many female party leaders before her. No glass was broken.

    To quote my mum (an LD, who did not vote LD this time) 'She wants to be Nicola Sturgeon, but doesn't have the ability'.
    To be fair, Sturgeon didn't have the ability. She learnt it through a long apprenticeship to Salmond. Swinson made some bad mistakes and she was also unlucky, both of which she might have put behind her if she had time. We'll never know.

    I have a slightly soft spot for Swinson because she categorically would make a better PM than either Johnson or Corbyn, but no-one much voted for her, including myself.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,212

    maaarsh said:

    St Ives due soon?

    They said 2.30pm originally.
    Nailed on Con Hold, I'd back it 1-8 maybe at this point if available but nothing on the boards.
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    edited December 2019
    spudgfsh said:
    Seeing the differential in Labour and Tory performance between men and women I feel like reposting something from earlier - an interesting gender breakdown from the HoC Library team!

    https://members.parliament.uk/parties/Commons

    Conservative: 364 MPs
    Men 277
    Women 87

    Labour: 202 MPs
    Men 98
    Women 104

    SNP: 48 MPs
    Men 32
    Women 16

    Lib Dem: 11 MPs
    Men 4
    Women 7

    DUP 8 MPs
    Men 7
    Women 1

    SF 7 MPs
    Men 5
    Women 2

    Had thought that the Tories might have a bit more female representation, given the gender differential in polling with Labour maybe they would benefit from more of a feminine touch? (Only 24% women MPs.)

    Labour MPs are for the first time ever more than 50% women (just, at 51%).
  • Pulpstar said:

    Varadkar kept that schtum during the campaign...…….
    The enemy within. :D
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    R5 interviewer out on the streets (actually in a pub) in Sedgefield actually trolling a disenchanted Lab voter. Quality.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,912
    Varadkar should have a look at Twitter today, it seems that Boris is "literally Hitler".
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    Wes Streeting has spoken more sense in 5 minutes than Corbyn & co have done for the last 5 years. Of course that will disqualify him from ever being the leader.
  • maaarsh said:

    St Ives due soon?

    Is it nearly over?
  • ridaligoridaligo Posts: 174
    Wes Streeting speaking very well on the BBC just now. Seems like a sensible chap from a moderate Labour point of view.
  • ridaligo said:

    Wes Streeting speaking very well on the BBC just now. Seems like a sensible chap from a moderate Labour point of view.

    The Corbyn fans think he's a Toreeeeee, innit.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,864
    glw said:

    Varadkar should have a look at Twitter today, it seems that Boris is "literally Hitler".
    Does that not pretty much confirm his assessment? If Twitter is sure about something we know it is wrong.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,253

    Bloke in a chippy in Rother Valley: Kick all the Marxists out and go back to being a Labour Party

    Look North should be compulsory viewing for Momentum today.

    I don't think that they are interested in listening.

    Heads further up their own backsides than before, solemnly listening to their own farts - despite a whacking great paddle on their posterior from the public in the provinces.

    Unless something has changed that I missed.
  • ridaligoridaligo Posts: 174
    Jason said:

    Wes Streeting has spoken more sense in 5 minutes than Corbyn & co have done for the last 5 years. Of course that will disqualify him from ever being the leader.

    snap!
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    maaarsh said:

    St Ives due soon?

    Is it nearly over?
    Thy have just started counting I think
  • Final declaration, lads.
  • ridaligoridaligo Posts: 174

    ridaligo said:

    Wes Streeting speaking very well on the BBC just now. Seems like a sensible chap from a moderate Labour point of view.

    The Corbyn fans think he's a Toreeeeee, innit.
    Ah, that'll explain it ...
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    nichomar said:

    maaarsh said:

    St Ives due soon?

    Is it nearly over?
    Thy have just started counting I think
    Wrong
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,627
    Corbyn interview on CNN. He seems way more interested in him raising the number of Labour members, than the number of Labour voters.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,253

    Election polling have put together a list of targets for 2024. For Lab they now need a 10% swing on UNS to get a majority of 2. That includes a lot of gains in Scotland. Without any Scottish gains it would be 13% swing required

    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/labour#UKParliament

    Mansfield: Lab target no 200.
  • TOPPING said:

    R5 interviewer out on the streets (actually in a pub) in Sedgefield actually trolling a disenchanted Lab voter. Quality.

    I enjoyed that.
  • St. Ives: Con Hold.

    And we're done.
  • Sandpit said:

    Corbyn interview on CNN. He seems way more interested in him raising the number of Labour members, than the number of Labour voters.

    Well of course, the hard left maintaining control of the labour party will be the focus of the hard left for the next 4/5 years.
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    Lol icing on the cake for the Tories, unreal.
  • Well done the pollsters, by and large. After the 2015 and 2017 disasters they were much better this time.

    Though LOL at ComRes and ICM.

    And the YouGov MRP was kinda wonky. Though the first projection was much better than the second.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Tory hold
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    Toris HOLD St Ives
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    saddened said:

    saddened said:

    Might have been more of a runner if she hadn't decked her partner.

    Compared with Johnson's colourful history that is very minor.
    True. However, she has zero charisma to the point she is a personality vacuum.
    Wait. In a Lib Dem leadership contest between Moran and Davey, you’re claiming Moran is the one with zero charisma?

    It’s a view, I guess.
    Nice snipping. Where did I make a comparison with Davey?
    It's a thread about the upcoming Lib Dem leadership. Who else do you think is going to stand? Jamie Stone?
  • PODIUM KLAXON.
  • SandraMcSandraMc Posts: 694
    Blimey! I've just looked at the Mail online. The look Emily Thornbury is giving Corbyn. If looks could kill... and all that.
  • BBC mourning Jo S, but... “she was kind of irrelevant.”

    Well, doh!

    Vox pox in East Dunbartonshire hilarious.
  • spudgfsh said:

    Omnium said:

    HoC will be a slightly poorer place without Carolone Flint.

    I'm mourning the loss of Mel Onn. Total fox.
    You have the new 'baby of the house' Nicola Richards:
    https://news.sky.com/story/nicola-richards-who-is-the-uks-new-youngest-mp-11885291
    do we know who is the new father of the house?
    Peter Bottomley I think
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,864
    nichomar said:

    Tory hold

    St Ives? Not seeing it.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,494

    PODIUM KLAXON.

    It wasn't good enough, he's calling another election!
  • St. Ives: Con Hold.

    And we're done.

    That gives a round 80 majority does it not?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,602

    Toris HOLD St Ives

    This means the LDs finish one seat down on GE2017.
  • Sandpit said:

    TOPPING said:

    geoffw said:

    The fishing question is iconic, even though it may not be "important" and the Cons will need to tread carefully for the sake of their seaside supporters. Like NI in the Withdrawal Agreement, it could prove to be an insurmountable point of disagreement for an FTA.

    More people work at Harrods than in the British fishing industry.
    Isn't that the problem? The same amount of fishing is happening, except that it's now EU boats making the money.
    Less fishing is happening because there are less fish. We opened our waters to them as a quid pro quo for them opening their markets to all the fish we export to them (because most of the fish we catch is exported to the EU). The attention that fishing gets compared to financial services, whose access to EU markets is at risk and is worth hundreds or thousands times as much to our economy, is breathtaking.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    Varadkar wants the UK to have a close relationship with the EU. Other EU countries less bothered.

    I thought you didn't approve of Varadkar because he isn't sufficiently deferential to Ireland's rightful overlord?

  • MattW said:

    Election polling have put together a list of targets for 2024. For Lab they now need a 10% swing on UNS to get a majority of 2. That includes a lot of gains in Scotland. Without any Scottish gains it would be 13% swing required

    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/labour#UKParliament

    Mansfield: Lab target no 200.
    Terrifying that somewhere like Redcar only just scrapes the top 50 target list. Sedgefield at 61! Bolsover at 67!

    My days....
  • MattW said:

    Election polling have put together a list of targets for 2024. For Lab they now need a 10% swing on UNS to get a majority of 2. That includes a lot of gains in Scotland. Without any Scottish gains it would be 13% swing required

    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/labour#UKParliament

    Mansfield: Lab target no 200.
    Mind blowing.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,590
    Andy_JS said:

    Toris HOLD St Ives

    This means the LDs finish one seat down on GE2017.
    My suggestion of each MP getting to be leader for a month now has a bit of an issue
  • Another snippet from Look North:

    Bloke in Wakefield: Labour would have held this seat if they'd got Brexit sorted before the election.

    I think he's at least partly right. Remainers went shit or bust to stop Brexit when they should have accepted compromise. Then we would have still lost, but nothing like as badly.

    The clear message is that if you hold a referendum you have to implement the result.
  • Andy_JS said:

    Toris HOLD St Ives

    This means the LDs finish one seat down on GE2017.

    Good election for the majority of pollsters, Survation et al were on the money.
  • 'it's not about the winning or losing, it's about the taking part'- Green voter on BBC..

    High aims indeed.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149
    edited December 2019
    spudgfsh said:
    So the Tories won every class from upper middle class ABs to unskilled working class DEs, astonishing and with skilled working class C2s they got 50% of the vote.

    Labour still does best with DEs and the LDs with ABs
  • ridaligoridaligo Posts: 174

    Sandpit said:

    Corbyn interview on CNN. He seems way more interested in him raising the number of Labour members, than the number of Labour voters.

    Well of course, the hard left maintaining control of the labour party will be the focus of the hard left for the next 4/5 years.
    The question is, what will Startmer, Cooper etc do? Do they leave the Labour brand to die with Momentum or do they try to kick them out and wrest the Labour name back. I suspect they'll have to give it up.
  • St. Ives: Con Hold.

    And we're done.

    That gives a round 80 majority does it not?
    It does indeed. Bang on the nose.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,153
    spudgfsh said:
    Ld vote always seems oddly steady across the generations.
  • ridaligo said:

    Sandpit said:

    Corbyn interview on CNN. He seems way more interested in him raising the number of Labour members, than the number of Labour voters.

    Well of course, the hard left maintaining control of the labour party will be the focus of the hard left for the next 4/5 years.
    The question is, what will Startmer, Cooper etc do? Do they leave the Labour brand to die with Momentum or do they try to kick them out and wrest the Labour name back. I suspect they'll have to give it up.
    What is the relationship with the Co-Operative Party? I've never fully understood it.
  • There is now a Tory MP for every day of the year.
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453

    MattW said:

    Election polling have put together a list of targets for 2024. For Lab they now need a 10% swing on UNS to get a majority of 2. That includes a lot of gains in Scotland. Without any Scottish gains it would be 13% swing required

    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/labour#UKParliament

    Mansfield: Lab target no 200.
    Terrifying that somewhere like Redcar only just scrapes the top 50 target list. Sedgefield at 61! Bolsover at 67!

    My days....
    Labour were so so lucky not to go much lower. They were so close to losing a ton more seats.
  • Chris said:
    "If I was to guess from our conversations I would say that Boris basically agrees with me about everything," says everyone who has ever spoken to him.*
    * I have spoken to him. I started by telling him that something he had said previously was utterly wrong. He told me he agreed with me completely.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,590

    There is now a Tory MP for every day of the year.

    apart from next year
  • With friends like this...
  • There is now a Tory MP for every day of the year.

    Not next year!
  • MattW said:

    Election polling have put together a list of targets for 2024. For Lab they now need a 10% swing on UNS to get a majority of 2. That includes a lot of gains in Scotland. Without any Scottish gains it would be 13% swing required

    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/labour#UKParliament

    Mansfield: Lab target no 200.
    And Huntingdon is an easier take at 196.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,602
    St Ives:

    Con 25,365
    LD 21,085
    Lab 3,553
    Grn 964
    Lib 314
    CP 132
  • FF43 said:

    Varadkar wants the UK to have a close relationship with the EU. Other EU countries less bothered.

    I thought you didn't approve of Varadkar because he isn't sufficiently deferential to Ireland's rightful overlord?

    Horsefeathers! I have long argued that the Irish fought their corner effectively and well. How wisely, time will tell....
  • St Ives new MP sporting a good Christmas jumper for his big moment.
  • Thank you St Ives....talk about stringing it out!!
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    HYUFD said:

    spudgfsh said:
    So the Tories won every class from upper middle class ABs to unskilled working class DEs, astonishing and with skilled working class C2s they got 50% of the vote.

    Labour still does best with DEs and the LDs with ABs
    Well done for all your effort and also, whether by luck, hope, or judgement, your calling of events as they have transpired these past few months.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    edited December 2019


    "If I was to guess from our conversations I would say that Boris basically agrees with me about everything," says everyone who has ever spoken to him.*
    * I have spoken to him. I started by telling him that something he had said previously was utterly wrong. He told me he agreed with me completely.

    Ha, so true. He'll morph as he needs.

    The upside of this is that there's now no chance of a hard Brexit. The ERG will be told to piss off in no uncertain terms, and he'll shamelessly pivot to an extension of the transition period at the end of the year.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,494
    enjoy picking over the bones all. I'm off to a pissup!
  • maaarsh said:

    There is now a Tory MP for every day of the year.

    apart from next year
    Have Boris twice.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    Jeez so many voxpops saying what a disaster Corbyn would have been in power.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    maaarsh said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Toris HOLD St Ives

    This means the LDs finish one seat down on GE2017.
    My suggestion of each MP getting to be leader for a month now has a bit of an issue
    4 weeks holiday will work a treat.
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    nunu2 said:

    MattW said:

    Election polling have put together a list of targets for 2024. For Lab they now need a 10% swing on UNS to get a majority of 2. That includes a lot of gains in Scotland. Without any Scottish gains it would be 13% swing required

    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/labour#UKParliament

    Mansfield: Lab target no 200.
    Terrifying that somewhere like Redcar only just scrapes the top 50 target list. Sedgefield at 61! Bolsover at 67!

    My days....
    Labour were so so lucky not to go much lower. They were so close to losing a ton more seats.
    I was just thinking that. Their seat total flatters them. Next election will be another defeat, that will be 5 in a row. Some record, that.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,153
    maaarsh said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Toris HOLD St Ives

    This means the LDs finish one seat down on GE2017.
    My suggestion of each MP getting to be leader for a month now has a bit of an issue
    They can do without one in the August recess
  • PaulMPaulM Posts: 613
    FF43 said:

    Jo Swinson reckons she smashed the glass ceiling by becoming the first female Liberal Democrat party leader. Leading to broken glass falling on her ...

    Really!!???

    We've had two female Prime Ministers, two devolved female First Ministers and many female party leaders before her. No glass was broken.

    To quote my mum (an LD, who did not vote LD this time) 'She wants to be Nicola Sturgeon, but doesn't have the ability'.

    I have a slightly soft spot for Swinson because she categorically would make a better PM than either Johnson or Corbyn, but no-one much voted for her, including myself.
    "It's not you Jo, it's me"...
  • TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    Possibly, likely, counting my chickens here, but, now that it seems that Brexit will actually happen, it was probably for the good that the referendum result was tested to within an inch of its life before enactment, albeit in the free market kind of way it has rather than a second go at it. Leave won the referendum, then the only party willing to enact the result won a Majority in a subsequent GE with the policy in its manifesto. Double lock!

    Yep. It is unambiguously the will of the people. We'll be out by 1st Feb.
    Oven cooked.
  • There is now a Tory MP for every day of the year.

    Not next year there isn't.
  • Labour know how to stage manage... in 1997 there was hoards of supporters cheering Blair, it looked like the "people had spoken", a scene almost from World War Z with crowds swarming Downing street. Yet, despite Boris securing more votes than Blair in 1997 we wont see those kind of scenes.
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    edited December 2019
    79 seats plus 7 Sinn Fein seats = 86 majority.

    That should be enough to thoroughly betray the ERG and send them the way of Nigel Dodds.

    EDIT - Cummings hates the ERG too. He'll enjoy this.
  • With friends like this...

    If looks could kill?
  • spudgfsh said:

    enjoy picking over the bones all. I'm off to a pissup!

    Snap! My working week is done. Working for the Man? Not my thang. Cin cin!”
  • Fenster said:

    79 seats plus 7 Sinn Fein seats = 86 majority.

    That should be enough to thoroughly betray the ERG and send them the way of Nigel Dodds.

    EDIT - Cummings hates the ERG too. He'll enjoy this.

    Please let this shoot the ERG fox, they have as much culpability for the last few years as anyone.
  • Labour know how to stage manage... in 1997 there was hoards of supporters cheering Blair, it looked like the "people had spoken", a scene almost from World War Z with crowds swarming Downing street. Yet, despite Boris securing more votes than Blair in 1997 we wont see those kind of scenes.

    A new dawn has broken, has it not?
  • Jack Straw kicking arse on BBC.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,602
    edited December 2019
    TOPPING said:

    Jeez so many voxpops saying what a disaster Corbyn would have been in power.

    But Owen Jones, Faiza Shaheen and Aaron Bastani kept telling us he was the best thing since sliced bread.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,153
    I know part of it is ideological, but it still seems notable how many Labour MPs dont seem like Corbyn personally, and more will admit to it now. His supporters talk about how nice and great he is, and he clearly agrees what a nice person he is, but it seems like if that were so hed have more respect from past and current colleagues even if ideologically opposed.
This discussion has been closed.