Question on exit poll. Do they start adjusting as soon as the results come in? So if it’s wildly off will we know quickly? I ask because I want to strategically time my sleep
They are getting data every hour from the 140+ chosen polling stations and are making comparisons on last time at exactly the same point. I'm told by a friend who has been part of the team in the past that they start to get a pretty good idea by the end of the morning. The point is that the sampling points are generally the same every time.
You really don't want the Tories to win, do you? Fair dos I suppose.
I'm completely back in the blue fold, even to the extent of agreeing to cycle in the forecasted pouring rain, at 6.30am for the first telling slot when polls open at 7.00am. Bloody idiot.
By the way, my hunch (I know, I know) is that Raab will win by 7-10k whatever the MRP predicts as a nail-biting 2%.
John I fear if Boris Johnson wins a majority then he and the ERG will take all the wrong lessons from the victory and lose to a Corbynite in five years then the country will be truly buggered.
The ideal result for the country would be the Tories on a similar seat total as 2017/10.
324 is enough. To be fair, I think 320 is enough. Sinn Fein aren't rocking up, and even the latest projections will have them winning 6.
The Cons need 320, which I think they'll do handily. All this talk of hung Parliaments is for the birds.
320 may be "enough", but it'll leave Francois/Baker and co in a position of quite some influence. Where does that leave us at the end of the year when the transition extension is needed?
Something that's reducing my blood pressure a little has been a quick comparison of the ranges of the final 2017 and 2019 MRPs:
2017: 269-334. Range 65. Midpoint 301.5. 2019: 311-367. Range 56. Midpoint 339.
Observations:
1. The midpoint today is greater than the top of the range last time. We Tories would have killed for this MRP in 2017.
2. The Tories actually outperformed the 2017 midpoint considerably: 317 stands at 73.8% of the top of the range. Replicating that performance this time would give the Tories an impressive 352.
3. Of course, past performance is no guarantee of the future, and the better they are predicted to be doing in absolute terms the harder it is to outperform, but even hitting only 25% of the range would put them on 325, which is enough to pass the Deal and govern for some time. 315, which is the realistic minimum to stay in (paralysed) office and keep Corbyn out, requires us to hit only 7.1% of the range.
And breathe!
I still reckon the postal votes might play a part here when the Tories were doing much better. So, without wishing to sound like Mr Several Predictions A Day Hoping I Get At Least One Of Them Right, I'm going for -
tiny Tory majority, maybe half a dozen. That's it.
I think it will be much closer than the Tory fanboys on here think it will be. I think near NOM and more turmoil to come.
You really don't want the Tories to win, do you? Fair dos I suppose.
I'm completely back in the blue fold, even to the extent of agreeing to cycle in the forecasted pouring rain, at 6.30am for the first telling slot when polls open at 7.00am. Bloody idiot.
By the way, my hunch (I know, I know) is that Raab will win by 7-10k whatever the MRP predicts as a nail-biting 2%.
John I fear if Boris Johnson wins a majority then he and the ERG will take all the wrong lessons from the victory and lose to a Corbynite in five years then the country will be truly buggered.
If Boris wins a majority it will be so small that he will have no choice but to follow the ERG and yes we will be outside the EU with a left wing government within 5 years..
I would describe Scotland (all of Scotland) as too close to call.
Could genuinely see the SNP lose seats. The MRP is absolutely mental.
Tories largest party in Scotland?
Or wiped out
4 is the floor for the SCons but as far as I can see they could be within sight of 20 without being ridiculous.
hmmm, think you are catching the pb bug Alastair, beginning to sound quite Byronic
2015 fooled everyone. 56 seats looked emphatic but a lot of them were on small majorities and won via differential turnout.
The tories are consolidating as the Unionist vote and Yes friendly SLab voters are seemingly refusing to accept this are are risking it all with Lab votes rather than SNP.
Something that's reducing my blood pressure a little has been a quick comparison of the ranges of the final 2017 and 2019 MRPs:
2017: 269-334. Range 65. Midpoint 301.5. 2019: 311-367. Range 56. Midpoint 339.
Observations:
1. The midpoint today is greater than the top of the range last time. We Tories would have killed for this MRP in 2017.
2. The Tories actually outperformed the 2017 midpoint considerably: 317 stands at 73.8% of the top of the range. Replicating that performance this time would give the Tories an impressive 352.
3. Of course, past performance is no guarantee of the future, and the better they are predicted to be doing in absolute terms the harder it is to outperform, but even hitting only 25% of the range would put them on 325, which is enough to pass the Deal and govern for some time. 315, which is the realistic minimum to stay in (paralysed) office and keep Corbyn out, requires us to hit only 7.1% of the range.
And breathe!
I still reckon the postal votes might play a part here when the Tories were doing much better. So, without wishing to sound like Mr Several Predictions A Day Hoping I Get At Least One Of Them Right, I'm going for -
tiny Tory majority, maybe half a dozen. That's it.
Since the Tories were polling at least 10% on average when postal votes were cast, if the lead on the day is only 6%, then if postal votes are 20% of total turnout that adds almost a full point to their final score...
I've been saying 60 for a week now, and betting on it for three.
As ever the GOTV and feel on the day is crucial and we seem to have a larger than normal number of tossups in areas where parties don't have history or ground troops. This could make the difference in a number of close races.
As we all seem eager to report on our home patches, here in Labour's third safest seat (currently), there remains little or no activity.
MRP gives Labour 68%, the Conservatives 16%, LDs 8%, Greens 4% and BXP 3%.
I'm not entirely convinced - I can't see a 15 point drop in the Labour number and I expect Stephen Timms to poll 75% with the Conservatives on 10-12%, LDs on 5-7% and the rest losing their deposits.
A final observation - we're told this election hinges on labour LEAVE voters switching to the Conservatives but this doesn't seem to be a London phenomenon. Newham voted 53-47 to REMAIN in 2016 so that means a lot of Labour voters must have voted LEAVE so why aren't the Conservatives doing better with them?
There' s a much sharper London/rest of England divide out there but I'm not sure I appreciate or fully understand it.
Something that's reducing my blood pressure a little has been a quick comparison of the ranges of the final 2017 and 2019 MRPs:
2017: 269-334. Range 65. Midpoint 301.5. 2019: 311-367. Range 56. Midpoint 339.
Observations:
1. The midpoint today is greater than the top of the range last time. We Tories would have killed for this MRP in 2017.
2. The Tories actually outperformed the 2017 midpoint considerably: 317 stands at 73.8% of the top of the range. Replicating that performance this time would give the Tories an impressive 352.
3. Of course, past performance is no guarantee of the future, and the better they are predicted to be doing in absolute terms the harder it is to outperform, but even hitting only 25% of the range would put them on 325, which is enough to pass the Deal and govern for some time. 315, which is the realistic minimum to stay in (paralysed) office and keep Corbyn out, requires us to hit only 7.1% of the range.
And breathe!
I still reckon the postal votes might play a part here when the Tories were doing much better. So, without wishing to sound like Mr Several Predictions A Day Hoping I Get At Least One Of Them Right, I'm going for -
tiny Tory majority, maybe half a dozen. That's it.
Since the Tories were polling at least 10% on average when postal votes were cast, if the lead on the day is only 6%, then if postal votes are 20% of total turnout that adds almost a full point to their final score...
Only matters if postal voters would have switched their vote if they voted later. Most postal voters are probably not floating voters, so my guess is it is polling on the day that matters more for the outcome.
Yes but surely deserves the credit for completely avoiding the global financial crisis that hit everyone else at the same time. Unless they are related, in which case Labour did not cause the GFC. HTH.
Horrific government overspending, reliant on the profits of a financial system unshackled by Brown, led to the huge deficits once those tax receipts were no longer there.
Remind you of the spending promises Labour are making now on the backs of billionaires and multi-nationals that can be gone before McDonnell gets his first budget away?
Something that's reducing my blood pressure a little has been a quick comparison of the ranges of the final 2017 and 2019 MRPs:
2017: 269-334. Range 65. Midpoint 301.5. 2019: 311-367. Range 56. Midpoint 339.
Observations:
1. The midpoint today is greater than the top of the range last time. We Tories would have killed for this MRP in 2017.
2. The Tories actually outperformed the 2017 midpoint considerably: 317 stands at 73.8% of the top of the range. Replicating that performance this time would give the Tories an impressive 352.
3. Of course, past performance is no guarantee of the future, and the better they are predicted to be doing in absolute terms the harder it is to outperform, but even hitting only 25% of the range would put them on 325, which is enough to pass the Deal and govern for some time. 315, which is the realistic minimum to stay in (paralysed) office and keep Corbyn out, requires us to hit only 7.1% of the range.
And breathe!
I still reckon the postal votes might play a part here when the Tories were doing much better. So, without wishing to sound like Mr Several Predictions A Day Hoping I Get At Least One Of Them Right, I'm going for -
tiny Tory majority, maybe half a dozen. That's it.
Since the Tories were polling at least 10% on average when postal votes were cast, if the lead on the day is only 6%, then if postal votes are 20% of total turnout that adds almost a full point to their final score...
Only matters if postal voters would have switched their vote if they voted later. Most postal voters are probably not floating voters, so my guess is it is polling on the day that matters more for the outcome.
IN fact, doesn't it point to an even bigger swing amongst the undecideds, since postal votes are "locked in" in the polls?
I would describe Scotland (all of Scotland) as too close to call.
Could genuinely see the SNP lose seats. The MRP is absolutely mental.
Tories largest party in Scotland?
Or wiped out
4 is the floor for the SCons but as far as I can see they could be within sight of 20 without being ridiculous.
hmmm, think you are catching the pb bug Alastair, beginning to sound quite Byronic
2015 fooled everyone. 56 seats looked emphatic but a lot of them were on small majorities and won via differential turnout.
The tories are consolidating as the Unionist vote and Yes friendly SLab voters are seemingly refusing to accept this are are risking it all with Lab votes rather than SNP.
Possibly , Westminster is irrelevant as far as I am concerned, the Scottish MP's get ignored totally and the Tory/Labour ones don't even attend/speak other than to go cruising in the bars and restaurants. We could send all SNP MP's and they would still be ignored and derided. Unfortunately too many Scots are happy being doormats and having their lives decided by another country, massive lack of backbone.
Someone on here is still calling the Global Economic Crash, 'Labour's' crash, wrong on a multiple of points.
Sajid Javid in a previous incarnation worked as an investment banker. He was at the heart of the credit trading business and was responsible for creating an emerging market product CDO which meant that investors lost millions and that helped to create the financial crash.
Here is a quote from one of Javid's colleagues at Deutsche Bank:
''Javid keeps spinning his former career as a sober investment banker when in fact he was a structured credit trader at the heart of the business that precipitated the global financial crash.''
324 is enough. To be fair, I think 320 is enough. Sinn Fein aren't rocking up, and even the latest projections will have them winning 6.
The Cons need 320, which I think they'll do handily. All this talk of hung Parliaments is for the birds.
320 may be "enough", but it'll leave Francois/Baker and co in a position of quite some influence. Where does that leave us at the end of the year when the transition extension is needed?
By then Brexit is a legal reality, and if the govt want to extend there is a significant majority in parliament to allow this. The ERG will be less influential in that situation and probably not a significant threat to Boris' leadership either.
I would describe Scotland (all of Scotland) as too close to call.
Could genuinely see the SNP lose seats. The MRP is absolutely mental.
Tories largest party in Scotland?
Or wiped out
4 is the floor for the SCons but as far as I can see they could be within sight of 20 without being ridiculous.
hmmm, think you are catching the pb bug Alastair, beginning to sound quite Byronic
2015 fooled everyone. 56 seats looked emphatic but a lot of them were on small majorities and won via differential turnout.
The tories are consolidating as the Unionist vote and Yes friendly SLab voters are seemingly refusing to accept this are are risking it all with Lab votes rather than SNP.
Possibly , Westminster is irrelevant as far as I am concerned, the Scottish MP's get ignored totally and the Tory/Labour ones don't even attend/speak other than to go cruising in the bars and restaurants. We could send all SNP MP's and they would still be ignored and derided. Unfortunately too many Scots are happy being doormats and having their lives decided by another country, massive lack of backbone.
The nightmare fuel scenario is that only Brexit is holding back a chunk of the Scottish population from voting Tory.
Once Brexit is dealt with there is no opposing pull, barring a sense of decency, that stops Remainer Unionists from voting SCon.
Can now log back into Vanilla again after a gap of several weeks. My takes on the election:
The Johnson strategy revealed in August of embracing and exterminating the Brexit Party will pay off. Maybe handsomely; maybe not. But it will get him over the majority line.
"The Conservative Party is politically and morally bankrupt and led by an out-and-out fraud, but at least he's not Corbyn". That notion has little salience. People who vote Conservative and perfectly OK with the party and its leader. Not very many are Remainers.
People are turning against Brexit, but in a way that benefits the Tories and harms the Lib Dems. Rather than saying this is a mess (as most people think it is) let's not go there, they don't want to talk about it or engage with the problem. The Tories cover the topic in three words - get Brexit done - so they get the nod.
YouGov's MRP poll confirms what I suspect about Scotland: there will be fewer Tory MPs in Scotland and more Labour ones than people think. That's because the main movement of floating voters is between the Conservatives and the SNP. Those voters aren't presumably massive unionists. Also any collapse in the Labour voteshare in Scotland harms rather than benefits the Tories. The collapsed votes will go to the SNP who could then outvote the Tories in the constituencies they hold.
Corbyn at best will have a wafer thin majority to deliver 2nd ref with a GE to follow straight after. None of his policies will have time to be implemented, we will increase spending, just like we would in the Tories and decide again in autumn 2020. .
Corbo is going to have the SNP and LD control rods moderating him and preventing him from going full Чорнобиль.
Probably true but "let's put him in power, we can control him and his movement", where have we heard that before?
Indeed ... i can't believe Remainers (who are supposed to be the brainy ones, so we're told) would risk Corbyn in order to block Brexit but apparently they are going to (again). Once the Marxists get a hold of power they don't let go (see Labour Leadership elections for the most recent example). They only need to be lucky once.
Ironically the more "unelectable" Corbyn and his cronies appear to be the more likely the are to be elected (either because people think the chance is low so their anti-Tory vote is safe or becuase they think he can be controlled once in Government).
At this stage all we can do is trust that the great British public hasn't lost its collective marbles.
That is stupid scaremongering as you have no evidence to support that outcome whatsoever. If and it is a big if JC does become PM he will not have a majority and will only be able to pass a budget that keeps the finances flowing with funding for more nurses doctors and police officers. The only laws he could pass would be in relation to the referendum and I seriously doubt he would get to renegotiate the deal. He would then be no confidenced and an election would take place after the referendum.
With respect, there is plenty of evidence to support the view that the Marxist SOP is to gain control of the mechanics of power bit by bit - they take the long view, ratcheting up their control incrementally. What you outline as one outcome of a hung parliament has Corbyn in Number 10 propped up by the likes of the SNP (who will agree to anything if it means a second independence referendum) and the Lib Dems (who will agree to anything for a second EU referendum). The stakes are way too high to risk Corbyn anywhere near Number 10 under any circumstances.
There has been nothing that could possibly make such a change in the last few days, it looks like bollox. How could LibDems gain 11 points when they are circling the drain, I just cannot believe it.
Quite simple to answer that one... By concentrating their effort on some seats, and sacrificing the campaign in others. It makes the Lib Dem vote much more efficient. We shall have to wait and see how it works out.
As we all seem eager to report on our home patches, here in Labour's third safest seat (currently), there remains little or no activity.
MRP gives Labour 68%, the Conservatives 16%, LDs 8%, Greens 4% and BXP 3%.
I'm not entirely convinced - I can't see a 15 point drop in the Labour number and I expect Stephen Timms to poll 75% with the Conservatives on 10-12%, LDs on 5-7% and the rest losing their deposits.
A final observation - we're told this election hinges on labour LEAVE voters switching to the Conservatives but this doesn't seem to be a London phenomenon. Newham voted 53-47 to REMAIN in 2016 so that means a lot of Labour voters must have voted LEAVE so why aren't the Conservatives doing better with them?
There' s a much sharper London/rest of England divide out there but I'm not sure I appreciate or fully understand it.
Maybe it's because I'm a Londoner.....
(Everyone join in).
Is it third safest in terms of % majority? Because Bootle is third safest in terms of absolute majority, whilst only fifth safest in terms of % majority.
I would describe Scotland (all of Scotland) as too close to call.
Could genuinely see the SNP lose seats. The MRP is absolutely mental.
Tories largest party in Scotland?
Or wiped out
4 is the floor for the SCons but as far as I can see they could be within sight of 20 without being ridiculous.
hmmm, think you are catching the pb bug Alastair, beginning to sound quite Byronic
2015 fooled everyone. 56 seats looked emphatic but a lot of them were on small majorities and won via differential turnout.
The tories are consolidating as the Unionist vote and Yes friendly SLab voters are seemingly refusing to accept this are are risking it all with Lab votes rather than SNP.
Possibly , Westminster is irrelevant as far as I am concerned, the Scottish MP's get ignored totally and the Tory/Labour ones don't even attend/speak other than to go cruising in the bars and restaurants. We could send all SNP MP's and they would still be ignored and derided. Unfortunately too many Scots are happy being doormats and having their lives decided by another country, massive lack of backbone.
The nightmare fuel scenario is that only Brexit is holding back a chunk of the Scottish population from voting Tory.
Once Brexit is dealt with there is no opposing pull, barring a sense of decency, that stops Remainer Unionists from voting SCon.
At Holyrood 2021 certainly the SCon vote could be higher with only Indy not Brexit an issue, same for LDs and Labour
As we all seem eager to report on our home patches, here in Labour's third safest seat (currently), there remains little or no activity.
MRP gives Labour 68%, the Conservatives 16%, LDs 8%, Greens 4% and BXP 3%.
I'm not entirely convinced - I can't see a 15 point drop in the Labour number and I expect Stephen Timms to poll 75% with the Conservatives on 10-12%, LDs on 5-7% and the rest losing their deposits.
A final observation - we're told this election hinges on labour LEAVE voters switching to the Conservatives but this doesn't seem to be a London phenomenon. Newham voted 53-47 to REMAIN in 2016 so that means a lot of Labour voters must have voted LEAVE so why aren't the Conservatives doing better with them?
There' s a much sharper London/rest of England divide out there but I'm not sure I appreciate or fully understand it.
Maybe it's because I'm a Londoner.....
(Everyone join in).
Is it third safest in terms of % majority? Because Bootle is third safest in terms of absolute majority, whilst only fifth safest in terms of % majority.
Here in Labour's ~310th target seat, no activity is visible except a few Green posters and no Green or Lib.Dem leaflets arrived in the post. Labour never bothers anyway.
Corbyn at best will have a wafer thin majority to deliver 2nd ref with a GE to follow straight after. None of his policies will have time to be implemented, we will increase spending, just like we would in the Tories and decide again in autumn 2020. .
Corbo is going to have the SNP and LD control rods moderating him and preventing him from going full Чорнобиль.
Probably true but "let's put him in power, we can control him and his movement", where have we heard that before?
He would have full control of our military and security apparatus from Day One as well.
I wouldn’t want him in charge of that for 9 hours, let alone 9 months.
What are you worried he might do specifically?
Frustrate the ability of our security services to thwart terrorist plots or espionage threats by failing to promptly act on intelligence tip-offs, failing to deploy defensive assets in response to Russian aggression, mothballing, grounding or cannibalising large parts of the armed forces for mixed ideological/financial reasons, failing to cooperate or pass on critical information onto NATO allies, and refusing to take COBR decisions to deal with imminent threats to public safety unless they accord with his ideology.
There is precedent for this. Look how he and has backroom team “helped” Remain during the 2016 EURef campaign, despite what the official stance was.
I need to point out that the post-2015 Conservative administrations have committed some of these: the report on Russian interference has been suppressed, we have not built/replaced sufficient support and escort vessels to adequately defend the carriers, the new Ajax armoured vehicle is too big and heavy for the plane meant to transport it, the Warrior upgrade program is in the freezer, our Challenger main battle tanks have outdated guns that can fire only one type of shell and they've stopped making them (true story!), the carriers can fly only one class of plane (f35b) which has only one manufacturer (Lockheed Martin) and we've only got about twenty-odd of them, we can't recruit enough soldiers and the new L85A3 rifle upgrade is worse then the L85A2 it replaced.
As for the "failing to cooperate with NATO allies and responding to Russian aggression", I need to remind you that Dom specifically threatened the Europeans with this.
I share your disquiet over Corbyn for this and many other things. But you've got to stop thinking the Conservatives are the pro-British pro-defence pro-business pro-sterling party of the Thatcher years. This new lot are entirely different.
In 2015 the Tories had a golden opportunity to show that conservative economics worked and delivered both individual liberty and good public services for both the well off and the struggling. Instead they wasted it all on their Brexit obsession.
I can't see how they will be able to repeat the Cameron detoxification again.
In 2015 the tories found a great distraction to hide the fact that the country was and is stagnating.
It's still working - no-one has noticed how zombified and unproductive our economy is.
That's hilarious after Labour gave us the worst economic crash since the 1930's
So bad were Labour that they managed to crash the economies of the USA, all our European partners, and a bunch of other countries around the world.
Criticising structural issues in the economy is not really a partisan point. Other than to reinforce that neither the Tories nor Labour have done a thing about it over the last 40 years.
Comments
The ideal result for the country would be the Tories on a similar seat total as 2017/10.
The tories are consolidating as the Unionist vote and Yes friendly SLab voters are seemingly refusing to accept this are are risking it all with Lab votes rather than SNP.
As ever the GOTV and feel on the day is crucial and we seem to have a larger than normal number of tossups in areas where parties don't have history or ground troops. This could make the difference in a number of close races.
Going to be a fascinating night tomorrow.
As we all seem eager to report on our home patches, here in Labour's third safest seat (currently), there remains little or no activity.
MRP gives Labour 68%, the Conservatives 16%, LDs 8%, Greens 4% and BXP 3%.
I'm not entirely convinced - I can't see a 15 point drop in the Labour number and I expect Stephen Timms to poll 75% with the Conservatives on 10-12%, LDs on 5-7% and the rest losing their deposits.
A final observation - we're told this election hinges on labour LEAVE voters switching to the Conservatives but this doesn't seem to be a London phenomenon. Newham voted 53-47 to REMAIN in 2016 so that means a lot of Labour voters must have voted LEAVE so why aren't the Conservatives doing better with them?
There' s a much sharper London/rest of England divide out there but I'm not sure I appreciate or fully understand it.
Maybe it's because I'm a Londoner.....
(Everyone join in).
NEW THREAD
Remind you of the spending promises Labour are making now on the backs of billionaires and multi-nationals that can be gone before McDonnell gets his first budget away?
We could send all SNP MP's and they would still be ignored and derided. Unfortunately too many Scots are happy being doormats and having their lives decided by another country, massive lack of backbone.
I would like to invoke my 5th Amendment privileges...
Sajid Javid in a previous incarnation worked as an investment banker. He was at the heart of the credit trading business and was responsible for creating an emerging market product CDO which meant that investors lost millions and that helped to create the financial crash.
Here is a quote from one of Javid's colleagues at Deutsche Bank:
''Javid keeps spinning his former career as a sober investment banker when in fact he was a structured credit trader at the heart of the business that precipitated the global financial crash.''
Once Brexit is dealt with there is no opposing pull, barring a sense of decency, that stops Remainer Unionists from voting SCon.
Says someone from SNPland...
As for the "failing to cooperate with NATO allies and responding to Russian aggression", I need to remind you that Dom specifically threatened the Europeans with this.
I share your disquiet over Corbyn for this and many other things. But you've got to stop thinking the Conservatives are the pro-British pro-defence pro-business pro-sterling party of the Thatcher years. This new lot are entirely different.
Criticising structural issues in the economy is not really a partisan point. Other than to reinforce that neither the Tories nor Labour have done a thing about it over the last 40 years.