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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Amy Klobuchar coming up strongly in Iowa and now within striki

SystemSystem Posts: 12,170
edited December 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Amy Klobuchar coming up strongly in Iowa and now within striking distance of the top 4

Emerson IOWA poll

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Comments

  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    HaroldO said:

    The one big thing about the British economy over the last 10 years is our stagnation in terms of productivity. Rather than investing in improved working techniques we just over work, I am as big a fool for doing so as anyone as I do a lot of unpaid overtime.
    Well to solve this I'm giving myself an xmas present and resign in the morning. I have no other role yet but the job markets really good and I'm not desperate for money.
    Wish me luck.

    Wow, that's the most memorable 'first' post on here I've read! Good luck.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Wow 760/1 is a superb bet. Hope you win it Mike.
  • HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185

    HaroldO said:

    The one big thing about the British economy over the last 10 years is our stagnation in terms of productivity. Rather than investing in improved working techniques we just over work, I am as big a fool for doing so as anyone as I do a lot of unpaid overtime.
    Well to solve this I'm giving myself an xmas present and resign in the morning. I have no other role yet but the job markets really good and I'm not desperate for money.
    Wish me luck.

    Wow, that's the most memorable 'first' post on here I've read! Good luck.
    I was at work for 11 hours with no break yesterday. I'm rather wired. Same today probably and it will stay the same until April.
    Not doing it any more.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,305
    HaroldO said:

    HaroldO said:

    The one big thing about the British economy over the last 10 years is our stagnation in terms of productivity. Rather than investing in improved working techniques we just over work, I am as big a fool for doing so as anyone as I do a lot of unpaid overtime.
    Well to solve this I'm giving myself an xmas present and resign in the morning. I have no other role yet but the job markets really good and I'm not desperate for money.
    Wish me luck.

    Wow, that's the most memorable 'first' post on here I've read! Good luck.
    I was at work for 11 hours with no break yesterday. I'm rather wired. Same today probably and it will stay the same until April.
    Not doing it any more.
    Good luck and all the best in your future endeavours to improve your work/life balance.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    HaroldO said:

    HaroldO said:

    The one big thing about the British economy over the last 10 years is our stagnation in terms of productivity. Rather than investing in improved working techniques we just over work, I am as big a fool for doing so as anyone as I do a lot of unpaid overtime.
    Well to solve this I'm giving myself an xmas present and resign in the morning. I have no other role yet but the job markets really good and I'm not desperate for money.
    Wish me luck.

    Wow, that's the most memorable 'first' post on here I've read! Good luck.
    I was at work for 11 hours with no break yesterday. I'm rather wired. Same today probably and it will stay the same until April.
    Not doing it any more.
    Brave move. Respect. Working hours are silly these days.
  • HaroldO said:

    The one big thing about the British economy over the last 10 years is our stagnation in terms of productivity. Rather than investing in improved working techniques we just over work, I am as big a fool for doing so as anyone as I do a lot of unpaid overtime.
    Well to solve this I'm giving myself an xmas present and resign in the morning. I have no other role yet but the job markets really good and I'm not desperate for money.
    Wish me luck.

    Good luck, there are better places to work I am sure! Quality over quantity!
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Harold good luck. We only get one life so well done you.
  • Cosmo interview with Baemy:
    https://twitter.com/Cosmopolitan/status/1204036441799626758

    If Hillary had used messages like this instead of that whole "highest, hardest glass ceiling" thing then she'd be president right now.
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    edited December 2019

    Cosmo interview with Baemy:
    https://twitter.com/Cosmopolitan/status/1204036441799626758

    If Hillary had used messages like this instead of that whole "highest, hardest glass ceiling" thing then she'd be president right now.

    She might be very good, but that's kinda twee. But we have to be realistic. She's the pro, so maybe that sort of thing will appeal to other (women?).
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,219
    HaroldO said:

    The one big thing about the British economy over the last 10 years is our stagnation in terms of productivity. Rather than investing in improved working techniques we just over work, I am as big a fool for doing so as anyone as I do a lot of unpaid overtime.
    Well to solve this I'm giving myself an xmas present and resign in the morning. I have no other role yet but the job markets really good and I'm not desperate for money.
    Wish me luck.

    Someone did a good video on that...

    https://youtu.be/8ytN9n3SFa0
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    edited December 2019
    Toms said:

    Cosmo interview with Baemy:
    https://twitter.com/Cosmopolitan/status/1204036441799626758

    If Hillary had used messages like this instead of that whole "highest, hardest glass ceiling" thing then she'd be president right now.

    She might be very good, but that's kinda twee. But we have to be realistic. She's the pro, so maybe that sort of thing will appeal to other (women?).
    The United States of America are tied together with twee
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478

    Toms said:

    Cosmo interview with Baemy:
    https://twitter.com/Cosmopolitan/status/1204036441799626758

    If Hillary had used messages like this instead of that whole "highest, hardest glass ceiling" thing then she'd be president right now.

    She might be very good, but that's kinda twee. But we have to be realistic. She's the pro, so maybe that sort of thing will appeal to other (women?).
    The United States of America are tied together with twee
    Well, Margaret Thatcher wasn't twee for sure. More twiney.
  • Toms said:

    Toms said:

    Cosmo interview with Baemy:
    https://twitter.com/Cosmopolitan/status/1204036441799626758

    If Hillary had used messages like this instead of that whole "highest, hardest glass ceiling" thing then she'd be president right now.

    She might be very good, but that's kinda twee. But we have to be realistic. She's the pro, so maybe that sort of thing will appeal to other (women?).
    The United States of America are tied together with twee
    Well, Margaret Thatcher wasn't twee for sure. More twiney.
    This is true. Luckily for her she didn't have to win Iowa.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    HaroldO said:

    HaroldO said:

    The one big thing about the British economy over the last 10 years is our stagnation in terms of productivity. Rather than investing in improved working techniques we just over work, I am as big a fool for doing so as anyone as I do a lot of unpaid overtime.
    Well to solve this I'm giving myself an xmas present and resign in the morning. I have no other role yet but the job markets really good and I'm not desperate for money.
    Wish me luck.

    Wow, that's the most memorable 'first' post on here I've read! Good luck.
    I was at work for 11 hours with no break yesterday. I'm rather wired. Same today probably and it will stay the same until April.
    Not doing it any more.
    You must have been on the CCHQ shitposting team.
  • HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185
    Dura_Ace said:

    HaroldO said:

    HaroldO said:

    The one big thing about the British economy over the last 10 years is our stagnation in terms of productivity. Rather than investing in improved working techniques we just over work, I am as big a fool for doing so as anyone as I do a lot of unpaid overtime.
    Well to solve this I'm giving myself an xmas present and resign in the morning. I have no other role yet but the job markets really good and I'm not desperate for money.
    Wish me luck.

    Wow, that's the most memorable 'first' post on here I've read! Good luck.
    I was at work for 11 hours with no break yesterday. I'm rather wired. Same today probably and it will stay the same until April.
    Not doing it any more.
    You must have been on the CCHQ shitposting team.
    Pft. Bet that pays better.
    My mum had a breakdown in her 40s due to overwork for many years. Not letting it do me in.
  • Dura_Ace said:

    HaroldO said:

    HaroldO said:

    The one big thing about the British economy over the last 10 years is our stagnation in terms of productivity. Rather than investing in improved working techniques we just over work, I am as big a fool for doing so as anyone as I do a lot of unpaid overtime.
    Well to solve this I'm giving myself an xmas present and resign in the morning. I have no other role yet but the job markets really good and I'm not desperate for money.
    Wish me luck.

    Wow, that's the most memorable 'first' post on here I've read! Good luck.
    I was at work for 11 hours with no break yesterday. I'm rather wired. Same today probably and it will stay the same until April.
    Not doing it any more.
    You must have been on the CCHQ shitposting team.
    So you are predicting an April GE?
  • HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185
    And thanks all.
  • HaroldO said:

    And thanks all.

    Good luck!
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    edited December 2019
    HaroldO said:

    The one big thing about the British economy over the last 10 years is our stagnation in terms of productivity. Rather than investing in improved working techniques we just over work, I am as big a fool for doing so as anyone as I do a lot of unpaid overtime.
    Well to solve this I'm giving myself an xmas present and resign in the morning. I have no other role yet but the job markets really good and I'm not desperate for money.
    Wish me luck.

    I've past experience of being stuck in a really shite job myself so I get you 100%. I got to the point where I had to quit and throw myself on the mercy of the job market or else I'd have had a nervous breakdown: at the end of the day, you have to put yourself first. So yes, hopefully it all works out well for you.

    **********

    Thinking more generally about the current situation, if you're looking for explanations for how Labour keeps managing to bounce back at elections, despite having gone crackers, then this is one of them: much of the nation is miserable. The employment stats may still be good, but they mask the fact that much work is insecure, low paid and involves slogging away in rotten conditions, and those doing it typically don't have the luxury of being able to afford to give it up and look for something better, nor the opportunity to do so.

    My husband reminds me frequently that there's a lot of poverty out there. The current economic and social settlement has little to offer for many millions of people.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Dura_Ace said:

    HaroldO said:

    HaroldO said:

    The one big thing about the British economy over the last 10 years is our stagnation in terms of productivity. Rather than investing in improved working techniques we just over work, I am as big a fool for doing so as anyone as I do a lot of unpaid overtime.
    Well to solve this I'm giving myself an xmas present and resign in the morning. I have no other role yet but the job markets really good and I'm not desperate for money.
    Wish me luck.

    Wow, that's the most memorable 'first' post on here I've read! Good luck.
    I was at work for 11 hours with no break yesterday. I'm rather wired. Same today probably and it will stay the same until April.
    Not doing it any more.
    You must have been on the CCHQ shitposting team.
    So you are predicting an April GE?
    Will we be able to get the second EU referendum out of the way before April?

    Next GE in June/July surely?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    HaroldO said:

    The one big thing about the British economy over the last 10 years is our stagnation in terms of productivity. Rather than investing in improved working techniques we just over work, I am as big a fool for doing so as anyone as I do a lot of unpaid overtime.
    Well to solve this I'm giving myself an xmas present and resign in the morning. I have no other role yet but the job markets really good and I'm not desperate for money.
    Wish me luck.

    Brave man! Good luck 👍
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    HaroldO said:

    The one big thing about the British economy over the last 10 years is our stagnation in terms of productivity. Rather than investing in improved working techniques we just over work, I am as big a fool for doing so as anyone as I do a lot of unpaid overtime.
    Well to solve this I'm giving myself an xmas present and resign in the morning. I have no other role yet but the job markets really good and I'm not desperate for money.
    Wish me luck.

    Agreed.

    Good luck in your job hunt. I may well be joining you in resigning before the end of today. Unfortunately I would still have to work on for more than a month.
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,861
    Nice bet on Amy, OGH. I followed you in a while back and staked £13 at 220 for her to become POTUS and £50 at 130/1 on her becoming the Democratic nominee. I’ve just had another £50 on her to be the nominee at 60/1 (Ladbrokes boosted price). She is currently 36-44 to be the nominee with Betfair and 80-100 to be POTUS.

    A great time for her to get such a big poll boost. Let’s hope she has “The Mo”.

    Go Amy!
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,468
    HaroldO said:

    The one big thing about the British economy over the last 10 years is our stagnation in terms of productivity. Rather than investing in improved working techniques we just over work, I am as big a fool for doing so as anyone as I do a lot of unpaid overtime.
    Well to solve this I'm giving myself an xmas present and resign in the morning. I have no other role yet but the job markets really good and I'm not desperate for money.
    Wish me luck.

    Very best of luck. Don't panic, but don't put off your search for something new. You've got two or three weeks for strategy panning.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,864
    There’s definitely room at the top for Klobuchar. I really don’t see any of the current 4 beating Trump and that is surely the absolute priority. Weird how much Warren has fallen back. She looked dominant not that long ago.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609
    May I wish you good fortune, Harold. Best thing I ever did was resign from a job I wasn't enjoying, with no idea what I would do next.
  • Can somebody run the regression thing that’s predicted the last elections on the latest and final MORI numbers please?
  • HaroldO said:

    The one big thing about the British economy over the last 10 years is our stagnation in terms of productivity. Rather than investing in improved working techniques we just over work, I am as big a fool for doing so as anyone as I do a lot of unpaid overtime.
    Well to solve this I'm giving myself an xmas present and resign in the morning. I have no other role yet but the job markets really good and I'm not desperate for money.
    Wish me luck.

    Good for you.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,864
    ydoethur said:

    HaroldO said:

    The one big thing about the British economy over the last 10 years is our stagnation in terms of productivity. Rather than investing in improved working techniques we just over work, I am as big a fool for doing so as anyone as I do a lot of unpaid overtime.
    Well to solve this I'm giving myself an xmas present and resign in the morning. I have no other role yet but the job markets really good and I'm not desperate for money.
    Wish me luck.

    Agreed.

    Good luck in your job hunt. I may well be joining you in resigning before the end of today. Unfortunately I would still have to work on for more than a month.
    Sorry to hear that. Hope things can be resolved to your satisfaction.

    As a self employed person I find my boss a lot more self indulgent but I did 13 hours yesterday and will be doing about 12 today. I maybe need to have a word.
  • ydoethur said:

    HaroldO said:

    The one big thing about the British economy over the last 10 years is our stagnation in terms of productivity. Rather than investing in improved working techniques we just over work, I am as big a fool for doing so as anyone as I do a lot of unpaid overtime.
    Well to solve this I'm giving myself an xmas present and resign in the morning. I have no other role yet but the job markets really good and I'm not desperate for money.
    Wish me luck.

    Agreed.

    Good luck in your job hunt. I may well be joining you in resigning before the end of today. Unfortunately I would still have to work on for more than a month.
    We’ll all be resigning (not through choice) by the end of the month if Corbyn wins.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609
    stjohn said:

    Nice bet on Amy, OGH. I followed you in a while back and staked £13 at 220 for her to become POTUS and £50 at 130/1 on her becoming the Democratic nominee. I’ve just had another £50 on her to be the nominee at 60/1 (Ladbrokes boosted price). She is currently 36-44 to be the nominee with Betfair and 80-100 to be POTUS.

    A great time for her to get such a big poll boost. Let’s hope she has “The Mo”.

    Go Amy!

    They've tried the rest, without seeming to find a winner. If not Amy, they are gonna have to go back to Hillary....
  • DavidL said:

    There’s definitely room at the top for Klobuchar. I really don’t see any of the current 4 beating Trump and that is surely the absolute priority. Weird how much Warren has fallen back. She looked dominant not that long ago.

    Amy Klobuchar would be my best result at present, but Pete Buttigieg is the person who the Democrats should pick. As for Ms Klobuchar, she’s capable but undefinably dislikable. She would be Hillary II.
  • Cosmo interview with Baemy:
    https://twitter.com/Cosmopolitan/status/1204036441799626758

    If Hillary had used messages like this instead of that whole "highest, hardest glass ceiling" thing then she'd be president right now.

    Yep, with Hillary it was all about her.
  • Can somebody run the regression thing that’s predicted the last elections on the latest and final MORI numbers please?

    You need to be careful as the historical data are taken from the approximately monthly data from their political monitor series, and the latest data are from their higher frequency election tracker, and the questions are not exactly the same. So it's not really valid to simply plug these data in. Nevertheless, the continued narrowing in Johnson's favorability lead supports the conclusion that the real lead is narrower than the polls suggest.
  • DavidL said:

    There’s definitely room at the top for Klobuchar. I really don’t see any of the current 4 beating Trump and that is surely the absolute priority. Weird how much Warren has fallen back. She looked dominant not that long ago.

    Amy Klobuchar would be my best result at present, but Pete Buttigieg is the person who the Democrats should pick. As for Ms Klobuchar, she’s capable but undefinably dislikable. She would be Hillary II.
    I’m someone who absolutely couldn’t stand Hillary (and still can’t) but don’t share that dislike of Baemy. Maybe that’s because I don’t know her well enough but pitching it like she has above, as EiT showed, explain why she’s different.
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,861
    Why is she being called Baemy?
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    edited December 2019
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    stjohn said:

    Nice bet on Amy, OGH. I followed you in a while back and staked £13 at 220 for her to become POTUS and £50 at 130/1 on her becoming the Democratic nominee. I’ve just had another £50 on her to be the nominee at 60/1 (Ladbrokes boosted price). She is currently 36-44 to be the nominee with Betfair and 80-100 to be POTUS.

    A great time for her to get such a big poll boost. Let’s hope she has “The Mo”.

    Go Amy!

    Amy is my big POTUS winner. I topped up when she was still in the fight, and way too long. She has that folksiness that Middle America likes.

    She also does well on the ridiculous name factor that is so important in America.
  • May I wish you good fortune, Harold. Best thing I ever did was resign from a job I wasn't enjoying, with no idea what I would do next.

    Another piece of advice I got (and I appreciate not everyone can do this) is to try and build up at least six months of “fuck off money” in your bank account. And never touch it.

    This is probably about 12-15k for most people, and it liberates you (from stress too) as you can freely say “fuck off” at any time to a job you hate whilst knowing you can cover all your bills and expenses for up to 6 months whilst you find that other new job.

    Fuck off money. It’s great.
  • HaroldO said:

    The one big thing about the British economy over the last 10 years is our stagnation in terms of productivity. Rather than investing in improved working techniques we just over work, I am as big a fool for doing so as anyone as I do a lot of unpaid overtime.
    Well to solve this I'm giving myself an xmas present and resign in the morning. I have no other role yet but the job markets really good and I'm not desperate for money.
    Wish me luck.

    Good luck!
  • Foxy said:

    stjohn said:

    Nice bet on Amy, OGH. I followed you in a while back and staked £13 at 220 for her to become POTUS and £50 at 130/1 on her becoming the Democratic nominee. I’ve just had another £50 on her to be the nominee at 60/1 (Ladbrokes boosted price). She is currently 36-44 to be the nominee with Betfair and 80-100 to be POTUS.

    A great time for her to get such a big poll boost. Let’s hope she has “The Mo”.

    Go Amy!

    Amy is my big POTUS winner. I topped up when she was still in the fight, and way too long. She has that folksiness that Middle America likes.

    She also does well on the ridiculous name factor that is so important in America.
    They really do have some mightily strange names in the USA.
  • This is one of the most plausible Labour gains. Aren't Milkmen notorious for their extramarital shagging activities? Maybe Johnson could consider a career change on Friday?
  • Can somebody run the regression thing that’s predicted the last elections on the latest and final MORI numbers please?

    You need to be careful as the historical data are taken from the approximately monthly data from their political monitor series, and the latest data are from their higher frequency election tracker, and the questions are not exactly the same. So it's not really valid to simply plug these data in. Nevertheless, the continued narrowing in Johnson's favorability lead supports the conclusion that the real lead is narrower than the polls suggest.
    The ‘real lead’ will be lower because the Tory national lead is 2-3% higher than it ‘should’ be because the Brexit party are standing in Tory attack seats but not in Tory defence seats.

    That’s why leads of 8-10% yield such modest gains.

    I’m not sure how many people really understand this. You’d do better to just knock off 2-3% and think of the national leads as 4-7% instead for the purposes of marginals.
  • HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185
    ydoethur said:

    HaroldO said:

    The one big thing about the British economy over the last 10 years is our stagnation in terms of productivity. Rather than investing in improved working techniques we just over work, I am as big a fool for doing so as anyone as I do a lot of unpaid overtime.
    Well to solve this I'm giving myself an xmas present and resign in the morning. I have no other role yet but the job markets really good and I'm not desperate for money.
    Wish me luck.

    Agreed.

    Good luck in your job hunt. I may well be joining you in resigning before the end of today. Unfortunately I would still have to work on for more than a month.
    Good luck fellow resigner (possibly).
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720

    May I wish you good fortune, Harold. Best thing I ever did was resign from a job I wasn't enjoying, with no idea what I would do next.

    Yes, I did the same some years ago, before restarting in a different speciality.

    Life is too short to spend it doing a job that you hate. Some people cannot escape, but if you are in a position to be able to, then don't look back.
  • Foxy said:

    stjohn said:

    Nice bet on Amy, OGH. I followed you in a while back and staked £13 at 220 for her to become POTUS and £50 at 130/1 on her becoming the Democratic nominee. I’ve just had another £50 on her to be the nominee at 60/1 (Ladbrokes boosted price). She is currently 36-44 to be the nominee with Betfair and 80-100 to be POTUS.

    A great time for her to get such a big poll boost. Let’s hope she has “The Mo”.

    Go Amy!

    Amy is my big POTUS winner. I topped up when she was still in the fight, and way too long. She has that folksiness that Middle America likes.

    She also does well on the ridiculous name factor that is so important in America.
    They really do have some mightily strange names in the USA.
    Carter, Reagan, Bush, Clinton? Surely Warren is the bet on name grounds.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    edited December 2019

    May I wish you good fortune, Harold. Best thing I ever did was resign from a job I wasn't enjoying, with no idea what I would do next.

    Another piece of advice I got (and I appreciate not everyone can do this) is to try and build up at least six months of “fuck off money” in your bank account. And never touch it.

    This is probably about 12-15k for most people, and it liberates you (from stress too) as you can freely say “fuck off” at any time to a job you hate whilst knowing you can cover all your bills and expenses for up to 6 months whilst you find that other new job.

    Fuck off money. It’s great.
    Hmm, not sure savings for "most people" after rent and bills for six months is £12-15K!
  • I reflected overnight on the election result that the country deserves (as opposed to what it will get) and concluded that it would look something like:

    Con 310
    Lab 251
    SNP 45
    Lib Dems 20
    DUP 8
    Sinn Fein 6
    Plaid Cymru 4
    Alliance 2
    SDLP 2
    Green 1
    Speaker 1

    Not that any of the politicians are anywhere near competent enough to deal with such a result.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,729

    May I wish you good fortune, Harold. Best thing I ever did was resign from a job I wasn't enjoying, with no idea what I would do next.

    Another piece of advice I got (and I appreciate not everyone can do this) is to try and build up at least six months of “fuck off money” in your bank account. And never touch it.

    This is probably about 12-15k for most people, and it liberates you (from stress too) as you can freely say “fuck off” at any time to a job you hate whilst knowing you can cover all your bills and expenses for up to 6 months whilst you find that other new job.

    Fuck off money. It’s great.
    Hmm, not sure savings for "most people" after rent and bills for six months is £12-15K!
    Maybe not but the principal is the same whatever you earn.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    760/1 on Klobuchar is a great bet, and in that context the poll is exciting since it might allow you to realise some value. But in general she's a no hoper and this poll does little to change that
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,864

    DavidL said:

    There’s definitely room at the top for Klobuchar. I really don’t see any of the current 4 beating Trump and that is surely the absolute priority. Weird how much Warren has fallen back. She looked dominant not that long ago.

    Amy Klobuchar would be my best result at present, but Pete Buttigieg is the person who the Democrats should pick. As for Ms Klobuchar, she’s capable but undefinably dislikable. She would be Hillary II.
    I find it very difficult to judge who the Americans are going to like. I really struggle to see what the attraction is with Trump, for example. Revolting man. To us there is an excess of smug and a homeliness that comes across as fake but I am not confident Americans will feel the same.

    Buttigieg speaks well but he is very, very inexperienced. I certainly don't see a Bill Clinton (governor, head of the Democratic Governors Association, genuinely influential in policy development and innovation for years) or even an Obama in the field. It's disappointing when the incumbent is so vulnerable.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    Is he doing some sort of weird Generation Game thing where he has to play at doing every job, and make a hash of it for the amusement of the cameras?

    Some say that the LDs went too heavy on PM Swinson, but the Tories going so heavy on the clown cult of BoZo may have been a much bigger mistake. Hardly any other cabinet minister seems to have been on show, and virtually all the Tory stuff is about personalities rather than policy.
  • I reflected overnight on the election result that the country deserves (as opposed to what it will get) and concluded that it would look something like:

    Con 310
    Lab 251
    SNP 45
    Lib Dems 20
    DUP 8
    Sinn Fein 6
    Plaid Cymru 4
    Alliance 2
    SDLP 2
    Green 1
    Speaker 1

    Not that any of the politicians are anywhere near competent enough to deal with such a result.

    The problem with that highly unlikely result, which I would celebrate with gusto, is that it would mean years more Jeremy Corbyn as Labour leader and the cementing of the far left’s hegemony.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    If that isn’t a spoof it’s genuinely frightening.
  • May I wish you good fortune, Harold. Best thing I ever did was resign from a job I wasn't enjoying, with no idea what I would do next.

    Another piece of advice I got (and I appreciate not everyone can do this) is to try and build up at least six months of “fuck off money” in your bank account. And never touch it.

    This is probably about 12-15k for most people, and it liberates you (from stress too) as you can freely say “fuck off” at any time to a job you hate whilst knowing you can cover all your bills and expenses for up to 6 months whilst you find that other new job.

    Fuck off money. It’s great.
    Hmm, not sure savings for "most people" after rent and bills for six months is £12-15K!
    It’s based on around £2k a month to cover mortgages, food, bills, transport and childcare.

    But, of course, it varies by person and region.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424

    May I wish you good fortune, Harold. Best thing I ever did was resign from a job I wasn't enjoying, with no idea what I would do next.

    Another piece of advice I got (and I appreciate not everyone can do this) is to try and build up at least six months of “fuck off money” in your bank account. And never touch it.

    This is probably about 12-15k for most people, and it liberates you (from stress too) as you can freely say “fuck off” at any time to a job you hate whilst knowing you can cover all your bills and expenses for up to 6 months whilst you find that other new job.

    Fuck off money. It’s great.
    Hmm, not sure savings for "most people" after rent and bills for six months is £12-15K!
    I think he means money to cover six months of spending, not what you can save in six months.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,484
    HaroldO said:

    HaroldO said:

    The one big thing about the British economy over the last 10 years is our stagnation in terms of productivity. Rather than investing in improved working techniques we just over work, I am as big a fool for doing so as anyone as I do a lot of unpaid overtime.
    Well to solve this I'm giving myself an xmas present and resign in the morning. I have no other role yet but the job markets really good and I'm not desperate for money.
    Wish me luck.

    Wow, that's the most memorable 'first' post on here I've read! Good luck.
    I was at work for 11 hours with no break yesterday. I'm rather wired. Same today probably and it will stay the same until April.
    Not doing it any more.
    I was up till 11.30pm writing next year's budget last night, and today going in on my holiday for a call. I do love my job though.
  • Can somebody run the regression thing that’s predicted the last elections on the latest and final MORI numbers please?

    You need to be careful as the historical data are taken from the approximately monthly data from their political monitor series, and the latest data are from their higher frequency election tracker, and the questions are not exactly the same. So it's not really valid to simply plug these data in. Nevertheless, the continued narrowing in Johnson's favorability lead supports the conclusion that the real lead is narrower than the polls suggest.
    The ‘real lead’ will be lower because the Tory national lead is 2-3% higher than it ‘should’ be because the Brexit party are standing in Tory attack seats but not in Tory defence seats.

    That’s why leads of 8-10% yield such modest gains.

    I’m not sure how many people really understand this. You’d do better to just knock off 2-3% and think of the national leads as 4-7% instead for the purposes of marginals.
    There may be a lot of voters who would be voting Labour if the Brexit Party were not standing.
  • I reflected overnight on the election result that the country deserves (as opposed to what it will get) and concluded that it would look something like:

    Con 310
    Lab 251
    SNP 45
    Lib Dems 20
    DUP 8
    Sinn Fein 6
    Plaid Cymru 4
    Alliance 2
    SDLP 2
    Green 1
    Speaker 1

    Not that any of the politicians are anywhere near competent enough to deal with such a result.

    The problem with that highly unlikely result, which I would celebrate with gusto, is that it would mean years more Jeremy Corbyn as Labour leader and the cementing of the far left’s hegemony.

    It’s not that unlikely. It’s at one end of the range of plausible outcomes. At the other end is a Conservative majority of 100 or so.
  • Can somebody run the regression thing that’s predicted the last elections on the latest and final MORI numbers please?

    You need to be careful as the historical data are taken from the approximately monthly data from their political monitor series, and the latest data are from their higher frequency election tracker, and the questions are not exactly the same. So it's not really valid to simply plug these data in. Nevertheless, the continued narrowing in Johnson's favorability lead supports the conclusion that the real lead is narrower than the polls suggest.
    The ‘real lead’ will be lower because the Tory national lead is 2-3% higher than it ‘should’ be because the Brexit party are standing in Tory attack seats but not in Tory defence seats.

    That’s why leads of 8-10% yield such modest gains.

    I’m not sure how many people really understand this. You’d do better to just knock off 2-3% and think of the national leads as 4-7% instead for the purposes of marginals.
    There may be a lot of voters who would be voting Labour if the Brexit Party were not standing.
    This is true, but it probably still doesn’t quite work in the Tories favour.

    We’re into spin the roulette wheel territory, as far as I’m concerned, and I’ve bet accordingly.
  • Private Eye couldn’t better it.
  • Can somebody run the regression thing that’s predicted the last elections on the latest and final MORI numbers please?

    You need to be careful as the historical data are taken from the approximately monthly data from their political monitor series, and the latest data are from their higher frequency election tracker, and the questions are not exactly the same. So it's not really valid to simply plug these data in. Nevertheless, the continued narrowing in Johnson's favorability lead supports the conclusion that the real lead is narrower than the polls suggest.
    The ‘real lead’ will be lower because the Tory national lead is 2-3% higher than it ‘should’ be because the Brexit party are standing in Tory attack seats but not in Tory defence seats.

    That’s why leads of 8-10% yield such modest gains.

    I’m not sure how many people really understand this. You’d do better to just knock off 2-3% and think of the national leads as 4-7% instead for the purposes of marginals.
    There may be a lot of voters who would be voting Labour if the Brexit Party were not standing.
    This is true, but it probably still doesn’t quite work in the Tories favour.

    We’re into spin the roulette wheel territory, as far as I’m concerned, and I’ve bet accordingly.
    Put the entire stack on red and hope?
  • On resigning club, I’ve already ‘resigned’ from Crossrail (2 weeks ago, as it happens) and am leaving that client after nearly 5.5 years. I may do a day or so a week there next year, but I finish there full time at Christmas.

    I’m working on a new client for 2020, which may amuse some of you when I reveal it but I can’t discuss it yet.
  • HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185

    HaroldO said:

    HaroldO said:

    The one big thing about the British economy over the last 10 years is our stagnation in terms of productivity. Rather than investing in improved working techniques we just over work, I am as big a fool for doing so as anyone as I do a lot of unpaid overtime.
    Well to solve this I'm giving myself an xmas present and resign in the morning. I have no other role yet but the job markets really good and I'm not desperate for money.
    Wish me luck.

    Wow, that's the most memorable 'first' post on here I've read! Good luck.
    I was at work for 11 hours with no break yesterday. I'm rather wired. Same today probably and it will stay the same until April.
    Not doing it any more.
    I was up till 11.30pm writing next year's budget last night, and today going in on my holiday for a call. I do love my job though.
    I dont. And these long hours come before I start budgeting in Feb, where 11 hour days will be typical if I'm lucky the way things are.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720

    Can somebody run the regression thing that’s predicted the last elections on the latest and final MORI numbers please?

    You need to be careful as the historical data are taken from the approximately monthly data from their political monitor series, and the latest data are from their higher frequency election tracker, and the questions are not exactly the same. So it's not really valid to simply plug these data in. Nevertheless, the continued narrowing in Johnson's favorability lead supports the conclusion that the real lead is narrower than the polls suggest.
    The ‘real lead’ will be lower because the Tory national lead is 2-3% higher than it ‘should’ be because the Brexit party are standing in Tory attack seats but not in Tory defence seats.

    That’s why leads of 8-10% yield such modest gains.

    I’m not sure how many people really understand this. You’d do better to just knock off 2-3% and think of the national leads as 4-7% instead for the purposes of marginals.
    There may be a lot of voters who would be voting Labour if the Brexit Party were not standing.
    I am not so sure. BXP voters are of the hard right, not that I think that they will poll in double figures anywhere. I doubt that they will save more than a handful of deposits.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    HaroldO said:

    The one big thing about the British economy over the last 10 years is our stagnation in terms of productivity. Rather than investing in improved working techniques we just over work, I am as big a fool for doing so as anyone as I do a lot of unpaid overtime.
    Well to solve this I'm giving myself an xmas present and resign in the morning. I have no other role yet but the job markets really good and I'm not desperate for money.
    Wish me luck.

    Good luck! I did this recently and haven’t regretted it one bit.
  • Prediction from me follows the other one above.

    Tories 310 seats
  • ydoethur said:

    May I wish you good fortune, Harold. Best thing I ever did was resign from a job I wasn't enjoying, with no idea what I would do next.

    Another piece of advice I got (and I appreciate not everyone can do this) is to try and build up at least six months of “fuck off money” in your bank account. And never touch it.

    This is probably about 12-15k for most people, and it liberates you (from stress too) as you can freely say “fuck off” at any time to a job you hate whilst knowing you can cover all your bills and expenses for up to 6 months whilst you find that other new job.

    Fuck off money. It’s great.
    Hmm, not sure savings for "most people" after rent and bills for six months is £12-15K!
    I think he means money to cover six months of spending, not what you can save in six months.
    That’s right.

    If you put £150 a month away for 5-6 years you can get this, but I wouldn’t advise it until you have a property etc.
  • Private Eye couldn’t better it.
    All is vanity seems to fit quite well for Boris.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720

    On resigning club, I’ve already ‘resigned’ from Crossrail (2 weeks ago, as it happens) and am leaving that client after nearly 5.5 years. I may do a day or so a week there next year, but I finish there full time at Christmas.

    I’m working on a new client for 2020, which may amuse some of you when I reveal it but I can’t discuss it yet.

    Are you the new Sir Topham Hat?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468

    On resigning club, I’ve already ‘resigned’ from Crossrail (2 weeks ago, as it happens) and am leaving that client after nearly 5.5 years. I may do a day or so a week there next year, but I finish there full time at Christmas.

    I’m working on a new client for 2020, which may amuse some of you when I reveal it but I can’t discuss it yet.

    Prince Andrew?
  • On resigning club, I’ve already ‘resigned’ from Crossrail (2 weeks ago, as it happens) and am leaving that client after nearly 5.5 years. I may do a day or so a week there next year, but I finish there full time at Christmas.

    I’m working on a new client for 2020, which may amuse some of you when I reveal it but I can’t discuss it yet.

    The Labour Party I assume then...
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,067
    edited December 2019
    Hi All - last day in the campaign - thank God! Dreadful campaign all round in my opinion.

    My rather wide Tory seats projection of 315 to 370 has narrowed to 315 to 350.

    Tory majority odds on favourite but a HP is still possible.

    From a country point of view, a Tory majority led by a mendacious, disingenuous, cowardly, racist buffoon would be a disaster with the ensuing crazy hard Brexit.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,602
    Is anyone still undecided as to who to vote for tomorrow?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    Andy_JS said:

    Is anyone still undecided as to who to vote for tomorrow?

    I mean, I think I’m now voting Labour but I could wobble in the voting booth.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,484
    edited December 2019
    HaroldO said:

    HaroldO said:

    HaroldO said:

    The one big thing about the British economy over the last 10 years is our stagnation in terms of productivity. Rather than investing in improved working techniques we just over work, I am as big a fool for doing so as anyone as I do a lot of unpaid overtime.
    Well to solve this I'm giving myself an xmas present and resign in the morning. I have no other role yet but the job markets really good and I'm not desperate for money.
    Wish me luck.

    Wow, that's the most memorable 'first' post on here I've read! Good luck.
    I was at work for 11 hours with no break yesterday. I'm rather wired. Same today probably and it will stay the same until April.
    Not doing it any more.
    I was up till 11.30pm writing next year's budget last night, and today going in on my holiday for a call. I do love my job though.
    I dont. And these long hours come before I start budgeting in Feb, where 11 hour days will be typical if I'm lucky the way things are.
    I feel that in some metaphysical way, the circumstances follow the person. Every job I have had has been like this, but the organisations have theoretically been very different. So I think it's me! And I'm fine with that. I love my job like I said.

    Best of luck - I am sure plenty of companies are looking for someone like you.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609

    On resigning club, I’ve already ‘resigned’ from Crossrail (2 weeks ago, as it happens) and am leaving that client after nearly 5.5 years. I may do a day or so a week there next year, but I finish there full time at Christmas.

    I’m working on a new client for 2020, which may amuse some of you when I reveal it but I can’t discuss it yet.

    The Labour moderates are finally tunnelling out?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,864

    I reflected overnight on the election result that the country deserves (as opposed to what it will get) and concluded that it would look something like:

    Con 310
    Lab 251
    SNP 45
    Lib Dems 20
    DUP 8
    Sinn Fein 6
    Plaid Cymru 4
    Alliance 2
    SDLP 2
    Green 1
    Speaker 1

    Not that any of the politicians are anywhere near competent enough to deal with such a result.

    I think we've tried this for the last 2 years. It didn't work. Probably for the reason you have indicated.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,298
    Leave aside the not particularly relevant Matt Hancock angle, and this a pretty shocking story. Senior doctors being fingerprinted and having their handwriting analysed to identify a whistle blower...

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2019/dec/11/matt-hancock-wont-talk-to-us-say-bullied-doctors-at-hospital-in-suffolk
  • Andy_JS said:

    Is anyone still undecided as to who to vote for tomorrow?

    Yes. Not in an electorally interesting manner though. My choices are Lib Dem, Green and spoiling my ballot paper. In a safe Conservative seat with Labour second, this is in the realm of performance art.

  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,484

    Private Eye couldn’t better it.
    All is vanity seems to fit quite well for Boris.
    It is from Ecclesiastes. Vanity, Vanity, all is Vanity. It's a beautiful passage.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    murali_s said:

    Hi All - last day in the campaign - thank God! Dreadful campaign all round in my opinion.

    My rather wide Tory seats projection of 315 to 370 has narrowed to 315 to 350.

    Tory majority odds on favourite but a HP is still possible.

    From a country point of view, a Tory majority led by a mendacious, disingenuous, cowardly, racist buffoon would be a disaster with the ensuing crazy hard Brexit.

    Morning Murali. Can I say while I agree with your general point, you personally seem to have had a good campaign? Telling it like it is to both sides.

    It is an awful choice we face.
  • Andy_JS said:

    Is anyone still undecided as to who to vote for tomorrow?

    I mean, I think I’m now voting Labour but I could wobble in the voting booth.
    Stay strong, comrade!
  • DavidL said:

    I reflected overnight on the election result that the country deserves (as opposed to what it will get) and concluded that it would look something like:

    Con 310
    Lab 251
    SNP 45
    Lib Dems 20
    DUP 8
    Sinn Fein 6
    Plaid Cymru 4
    Alliance 2
    SDLP 2
    Green 1
    Speaker 1

    Not that any of the politicians are anywhere near competent enough to deal with such a result.

    I think we've tried this for the last 2 years. It didn't work. Probably for the reason you have indicated.
    Then we should go away and do it again and this time properly.
  • DavidL said:

    I reflected overnight on the election result that the country deserves (as opposed to what it will get) and concluded that it would look something like:

    Con 310
    Lab 251
    SNP 45
    Lib Dems 20
    DUP 8
    Sinn Fein 6
    Plaid Cymru 4
    Alliance 2
    SDLP 2
    Green 1
    Speaker 1

    Not that any of the politicians are anywhere near competent enough to deal with such a result.

    I think we've tried this for the last 2 years. It didn't work. Probably for the reason you have indicated.
    This result would almost certainly lead to voting reform for a Labour minority Government. Works for me.
  • Foxy said:

    Is he doing some sort of weird Generation Game thing where he has to play at doing every job, and make a hash of it for the amusement of the cameras?

    Some say that the LDs went too heavy on PM Swinson, but the Tories going so heavy on the clown cult of BoZo may have been a much bigger mistake. Hardly any other cabinet minister seems to have been on show, and virtually all the Tory stuff is about personalities rather than policy.

    Johnson is pitching for the older, working class, male Labour Leave vote. He’s spent a lot of time donning the high vis jackets and other forms of working gear of that demographic. It’s smart politics.

  • I reflected overnight on the election result that the country deserves (as opposed to what it will get) and concluded that it would look something like:

    Con 310
    Lab 251
    SNP 45
    Lib Dems 20
    DUP 8
    Sinn Fein 6
    Plaid Cymru 4
    Alliance 2
    SDLP 2
    Green 1
    Speaker 1

    Not that any of the politicians are anywhere near competent enough to deal with such a result.

    I would be happy with that result
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609

    Andy_JS said:

    Is anyone still undecided as to who to vote for tomorrow?

    Yes. Not in an electorally interesting manner though. My choices are Lib Dem, Green and spoiling my ballot paper. In a safe Conservative seat with Labour second, this is in the realm of performance art.

    Take your crayoning set with you.....
  • On resigning club, I’ve already ‘resigned’ from Crossrail (2 weeks ago, as it happens) and am leaving that client after nearly 5.5 years. I may do a day or so a week there next year, but I finish there full time at Christmas.

    I’m working on a new client for 2020, which may amuse some of you when I reveal it but I can’t discuss it yet.

    I was hoping you might be helping to do the Bakerloo line extension, but no sign of that getting funded any time soon. 5-6 years is a good length of time for one job. I'm in my current job for over six years now, should think if moving on but I quite enjoy what I am doing right now and it fits well with family commitments etc so will probably stick with it. Good luck in your new role.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413
    Andy_JS said:

    Is anyone still undecided as to who to vote for tomorrow?

    yup

    Ill probably just spoil my vote as theres nobody worth voting for
  • .
    Andy_JS said:

    Is anyone still undecided as to who to vote for tomorrow?

    There was never much doubt, but if a large Tory majority were nailed on then I might have voted Lib Dem as I think my local mp is an idiot. As it is I can’t take the risk.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    If the result is that the Tories narrowly fail to gain a majority, Farage will take some flack. He`s about to cost the Tories Hartlepool, probably Barnsley East ... any others?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,864

    DavidL said:

    I reflected overnight on the election result that the country deserves (as opposed to what it will get) and concluded that it would look something like:

    Con 310
    Lab 251
    SNP 45
    Lib Dems 20
    DUP 8
    Sinn Fein 6
    Plaid Cymru 4
    Alliance 2
    SDLP 2
    Green 1
    Speaker 1

    Not that any of the politicians are anywhere near competent enough to deal with such a result.

    I think we've tried this for the last 2 years. It didn't work. Probably for the reason you have indicated.
    Then we should go away and do it again and this time properly.
    Doing it again is not going to make our politicians any more competent. We have what we have. We need a majority government to get things done. That majority can come from a stable coalition as in 2010-15 but more often the Coalition is inside a single party. Managing that is hard enough for the candidates we have.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    ydoethur said:

    If that isn’t a spoof it’s genuinely frightening.
    It’s a silly question and deserves a silly answer
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    Foxy said:



    Is he doing some sort of weird Generation Game thing where he has to play at doing every job, and make a hash of it for the amusement of the cameras?

    He's doing the last day before the election as a mohel to burnish his antiantisemitic credentials.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,405
    edited December 2019
    If we are still talking about the MRP seats - Things may not be correct due to polling decisions.

    https://twitter.com/centrist_phone/status/1204569918060027904

    and one focus of this election has been trying to get younger people to register (and hopefully vote).
This discussion has been closed.