Jeremy Corbyn: has he just recovered from some illness or is he botoxed up to the gills? He suddenly looks ten years younger, or at least two years back to 2017.
I think he really enjoys campaigning..
I seem to be a bit unusual, in that I am fairly neutral on Corbyn. I think his economics are bonkers and his obsession with Israel and Palestine repulsive, but he is genuinely compassionate and his humble personal eccentricities with jam and allotment a charming English eccentricity.
I suppose that I recognise the essential duality of man in him, and that conflict between the devil and the angel.
I wonder if the obsession with Israel and Palestine is really Corbyn's or if it is in fact our own obsession - I once tried to find out how often he has criticised Israel compared to Saudi Arabia, and it seemed to be comparable. The difference being other people gave a lot more publicity to his criticism of Israel than of Saudi Arabia. I do think his principled hostility to Israeli policy in the occupied territories (and his resistance to going along with the push to conflate any criticism of Israel with anti-semitism) has created both a stupid willingness to give the benefit of the doubt to unprincipled critics of Israel, and a massive avoidable political problem for him and Labour. I think Corbyn is a pretty crap politician, and it's a tragedy to have a fairly rubbish Labour leader at this time. I'd still choose Corbyn over Johnson as PM without a moment's hesitation.
I disagree that equal criticism of Saudi Arabia and Israel is a measure of even-handedness. One is a cruel autocratic theocratic state that turns a blind eye to global funding of wahabi-ist extremesim, the other is far and away the strongest democracy and most liberal state in the region besieged on all sides by well funded terrorists and hostile state actors.
I think equal criticism in these circumstances is a clear sign of...well we can let the EHRC decide.
Also, for some reason, Labour activists don't use Corbyn's criticisms of Saudi Arabia as an excuse to accuse Muslim MPs of dual loyalties and then hound them out of the party.
Without wanting to defend shitty Labour activists, nobody is saying that Corbyn's criticism of Saudi Arabia is evidence of Islamophobia. Although people have said that Corbyn's criticism of Indian policy in Kashmir is evidence of Hinduphobia.
Imagine a Corbyn government. Unemployment up. Tax intake and investment down. Benefit payments sky rocket. Economy death spiral. How much money will they have for our beloved NHS?
One thing is clear: the NHS will be even worse off under Corbyn because their fiscal plans will lead to a debt crisis for the UK, take us to the edge of bankruptcy and then require drastic cuts to get bailout funding.
Realistically a Corbyn government that we might get this time around will last about 6-9 months and have broadly the same spending injection as the Tories are promising.
Talk of us getting bankrupt in that timescale is absurd hyperbole. Yes ongoing unfettered Corbyn would lead us to that, but the choice is between 5 years of Johnson or less than a year of moderated Corbyn.
You misunderstand the key financial risk of a Corbyn government. It is that the gilt coupon rate goes through the roof and refinancing of maturing gilts becomes prohibitively expensive. This is what happened in Greece and, to a lesser extent, Spain, Italy and Portugal 10 years ago. It is not the spending which kills you, it is the borrowing costs.
Very interesting to see the comments on Mumsnet , hardly a bastion of left wingers to see what they made of Johnson’s phone drama .
The thread on that was both illuminating and quite funny at times , especially with some of the language used ! They trash both Johnson and Corbyn on the campaign in general but I’d be worried if I were the Tories about the impact of that phone clip on especially women .
Callous , inhuman etc were just some of the words used . The clip is now on 11.4 million views .
3 years means nothing this is a generational shift, we.re due one. All we are seeing is the death throes of the old order and as yet there new one hasn't emerged. The vote, as pointed out , was not just about the EU. The EU - unfairly - took the rap for a general discontent which politicans had been ignoring. Most of the discontent is on home grown issues which our politicans could have addressed but didn't. The EU ref was used as a chance to kick them in the nadgers to get their attention. It certainly did that.
And it's possible that tomorrow those same people (the one Cummings was hoping to use to win this election) may come out and vote.
If they do who do you think they will vote for - I suspect it won't be Boris after this campaign..
WHY WAS HE IN PUDSEY?!?!!? Wtf?! Are they scared they won't even get a majority?
Also in Guiseley, according to the BBC. Apparently on the same milk round ??
I dont know what constituency that is?
Guiseley is in Pudsey constituency. >.>
Which is in the north? I've heard a lot about the north. Very nice down to earth people apperently.
Imagine a Corbyn government. Unemployment up. Tax intake and investment down. Benefit payments sky rocket. Economy death spiral. How much money will they have for our beloved NHS?
One thing is clear: the NHS will be even worse off under Corbyn because their fiscal plans will lead to a debt crisis for the UK, take us to the edge of bankruptcy and then require drastic cuts to get bailout funding.
Realistically a Corbyn government that we might get this time around will last about 6-9 months and have broadly the same spending injection as the Tories are promising.
Talk of us getting bankrupt in that timescale is absurd hyperbole. Yes ongoing unfettered Corbyn would lead us to that, but the choice is between 5 years of Johnson or less than a year of moderated Corbyn.
You misunderstand the key financial risk of a Corbyn government. It is that the gilt coupon rate goes through the roof and refinancing of maturing gilts becomes prohibitively expensive. This is what happened in Greece and, to a lesser extent, Spain, Italy and Portugal 10 years ago. It is not the spending which kills you, it is the borrowing costs.
But markets can make an analysis just I like I did.
Corbyn at best will have a wafer thin majority to deliver 2nd ref with a GE to follow straight after. None of his policies will have time to be implemented, we will increase spending, just like we would in the Tories and decide again in autumn 2020.
The markets wont mind that at all, it is no worse for them than Brexit.
ps Even if they did increase borrowing costs, the idea that 9 months of borrowing costs at whatever market rate is going to bankrupt the UK is still absurd hyperbole.
Imagine a Corbyn government. Unemployment up. Tax intake and investment down. Benefit payments sky rocket. Economy death spiral. How much money will they have for our beloved NHS?
One thing is clear: the NHS will be even worse off under Corbyn because their fiscal plans will lead to a debt crisis for the UK, take us to the edge of bankruptcy and then require drastic cuts to get bailout funding.
Realistically a Corbyn government that we might get this time around will last about 6-9 months and have broadly the same spending injection as the Tories are promising.
Talk of us getting bankrupt in that timescale is absurd hyperbole. Yes ongoing unfettered Corbyn would lead us to that, but the choice is between 5 years of Johnson or less than a year of moderated Corbyn.
You misunderstand the key financial risk of a Corbyn government. It is that the gilt coupon rate goes through the roof and refinancing of maturing gilts becomes prohibitively expensive. This is what happened in Greece and, to a lesser extent, Spain, Italy and Portugal 10 years ago. It is not the spending which kills you, it is the borrowing costs.
Serious (and perhaps quite important) question - the MRP results released last night showed a rather pronounced downward trend in the projected number of Tory seats over the last fortnight, but essentially no trend at all in the projected Tory percentage lead.
Does anyone understand - or has YouGov made any comment on - how these two findings can be reconciled?
Increased awareness of who you need to vote for to keep the Tories out in your seat resulting in increased tactical voting. A more efficient distribution of Labour and LibDem votes reduces the number of Tory seats.
It can't be that because they don't take account of local factors (and how would they know anyway; they use a panel approach).
They ask people how they might vote tactically. That's part of the mapping.
Interestingly in my first YouGov in my constituency (Melton and Rutland) the tactical voting question was between Tory and LD 2 weeks ago and Tory and Labour this time. I gave the same answer (LD) both times.
Not a cat in hells chance for anyone other than the invisible Tory carpetbagger wanting a safe seat obviously, but an interesting shift from YouGov. I think they wanted to know how willing LD voters in my age group and income were willing to vote Lab.
Imagine a Corbyn government. Unemployment up. Tax intake and investment down. Benefit payments sky rocket. Economy death spiral. How much money will they have for our beloved NHS?
One thing is clear: the NHS will be even worse off under Corbyn because their fiscal plans will lead to a debt crisis for the UK, take us to the edge of bankruptcy and then require drastic cuts to get bailout funding.
Realistically a Corbyn government that we might get this time around will last about 6-9 months and have broadly the same spending injection as the Tories are promising.
Talk of us getting bankrupt in that timescale is absurd hyperbole. Yes ongoing unfettered Corbyn would lead us to that, but the choice is between 5 years of Johnson or less than a year of moderated Corbyn.
Imagine a Corbyn government. Unemployment up. Tax intake and investment down. Benefit payments sky rocket. Economy death spiral. How much money will they have for our beloved NHS?
One thing is clear: the NHS will be even worse off under Corbyn because their fiscal plans will lead to a debt crisis for the UK, take us to the edge of bankruptcy and then require drastic cuts to get bailout funding.
Realistically a Corbyn government that we might get this time around will last about 6-9 months and have broadly the same spending injection as the Tories are promising.
Talk of us getting bankrupt in that timescale is absurd hyperbole. Yes ongoing unfettered Corbyn would lead us to that, but the choice is between 5 years of Johnson or less than a year of moderated Corbyn.
I think that’s wishful thinking.
Its just logical, the Tory floor on seats is what, 300 maybe even 310?
Add in DUP, and its a wafer thin majority whilst Lab, SNP, LD, PC and Green are all willing to work together, as soon as 2nd ref is done there is a new GE almost certainly.
I always seem to post to closed threads so re-posting these words of wisdom.
Like the last election there has been no detailed examination of Labour's manifesto on TV or much of the media.
To pick two barmy policies that would be deeply unpopular if understood properly: 1. 10% share appropriation. This is a corker and is taken apart here https://capx.co/the-10-share-policy-that-would-decimate-corporate-britain/ 2. The policy to "upgrade almost all of the UK’s 27 million homes to the highest energy-efficiency standards" which I understand has been explained as forcing homeowners to pay for work on their properties under a government controlled scheme. The costs of the enforced payments or loans supposedly covered by energy savings. What could possibly go wrong?
Every paragraph of the long manifesto is stuffed with half-baked schemes or ideological nonsense.
It is a point of principle for me not to vote Labour under current leadership because of antisemitism and support for terrorists and Islamo-fascist movements but I can't understand why Corbyn and McDonald get such a free ride on economics!
Batley & Spen has narrowed from Lab 44%, Con 36% to Lab 44%, Con 39%.
Interesting that certain demographics must have moved towards the Tories over the last two weeks, against the overall national trend.
Very interesting indeed. If the lead rises from 9% back to 11% we could be looking at a bigger Tory majority than the 68 originally predicted under the first YouGoV MRP.
Very interesting to see the comments on Mumsnet , hardly a bastion of left wingers to see what they made of Johnson’s phone drama .
The thread on that was both illuminating and quite funny at times , especially with some of the language used ! They trash both Johnson and Corbyn on the campaign in general but I’d be worried if I were the Tories about the impact of that phone clip on especially women .
Callous , inhuman etc were just some of the words used . The clip is now on 11.4 million views .
Yes, it’s just the sort of emotive meaningless shit people vote on.
Imagine a Corbyn government. Unemployment up. Tax intake and investment down. Benefit payments sky rocket. Economy death spiral. How much money will they have for our beloved NHS?
One thing is clear: the NHS will be even worse off under Corbyn because their fiscal plans will lead to a debt crisis for the UK, take us to the edge of bankruptcy and then require drastic cuts to get bailout funding.
Realistically a Corbyn government that we might get this time around will last about 6-9 months and have broadly the same spending injection as the Tories are promising.
Talk of us getting bankrupt in that timescale is absurd hyperbole. Yes ongoing unfettered Corbyn would lead us to that, but the choice is between 5 years of Johnson or less than a year of moderated Corbyn.
You misunderstand the key financial risk of a Corbyn government. It is that the gilt coupon rate goes through the roof and refinancing of maturing gilts becomes prohibitively expensive. This is what happened in Greece and, to a lesser extent, Spain, Italy and Portugal 10 years ago. It is not the spending which kills you, it is the borrowing costs.
Imagine a Corbyn government. Unemployment up. Tax intake and investment down. Benefit payments sky rocket. Economy death spiral. How much money will they have for our beloved NHS?
One thing is clear: the NHS will be even worse off under Corbyn because their fiscal plans will lead to a debt crisis for the UK, take us to the edge of bankruptcy and then require drastic cuts to get bailout funding.
Realistically a Corbyn government that we might get this time around will last about 6-9 months and have broadly the same spending injection as the Tories are promising.
Talk of us getting bankrupt in that timescale is absurd hyperbole. Yes ongoing unfettered Corbyn would lead us to that, but the choice is between 5 years of Johnson or less than a year of moderated Corbyn.
You misunderstand the key financial risk of a Corbyn government. It is that the gilt coupon rate goes through the roof and refinancing of maturing gilts becomes prohibitively expensive. This is what happened in Greece and, to a lesser extent, Spain, Italy and Portugal 10 years ago. It is not the spending which kills you, it is the borrowing costs.
But markets can make an analysis just I like I did.
Corbyn at best will have a wafer thin majority to deliver 2nd ref with a GE to follow straight after. None of his policies will have time to be implemented, we will increase spending, just like we would in the Tories and decide again in autumn 2020.
The markets wont mind that at all, it is no worse for them than Brexit.
ps Even if they did increase borrowing costs, the idea that 9 months of borrowing costs at whatever market rate is going to bankrupt the UK is still absurd hyperbole.
Don't get me wrong; I think the likely cost of a hung parliament or even small Corbyn majority is preferable to Johnson and Brexit. But if you think the markets will react as you suggest then you fail to understand the markets. The saving grace would be the opportunity to get rid of Corbyn fast. But if that did not happen then the analogy holds.
To put it into context, the UK has to refinance between £100-150billion of maturing gilts every year on terms which will be fixed, typically, for between 5 and 30 years. This is on top of the new borrowing in the form of additional gilt issues to finance new plans. You work out the numbers. It is the continuing cost over the lifetime of the gilts which is the killer.
Serious (and perhaps quite important) question - the MRP results released last night showed a rather pronounced downward trend in the projected number of Tory seats over the last fortnight, but essentially no trend at all in the projected Tory percentage lead.
Does anyone understand - or has YouGov made any comment on - how these two findings can be reconciled?
Increased awareness of who you need to vote for to keep the Tories out in your seat resulting in increased tactical voting. A more efficient distribution of Labour and LibDem votes reduces the number of Tory seats.
It can't be that because they don't take account of local factors (and how would they know anyway; they use a panel approach).
They ask people how they might vote tactically. That's part of the mapping.
Interestingly in my first YouGov in my constituency (Melton and Rutland) the tactical voting question was between Tory and LD 2 weeks ago and Tory and Labour this time. I gave the same answer (LD) both times.
Not a cat in hells chance for anyone other than the invisible Tory carpetbagger wanting a safe seat obviously, but an interesting shift from YouGov.
*cough* It's Rutland & Melton. Important that the Mighty Rutland takes first place.
Imagine a Corbyn government. Unemployment up. Tax intake and investment down. Benefit payments sky rocket. Economy death spiral. How much money will they have for our beloved NHS?
One thing is clear: the NHS will be even worse off under Corbyn because their fiscal plans will lead to a debt crisis for the UK, take us to the edge of bankruptcy and then require drastic cuts to get bailout funding.
Realistically a Corbyn government that we might get this time around will last about 6-9 months and have broadly the same spending injection as the Tories are promising.
Talk of us getting bankrupt in that timescale is absurd hyperbole. Yes ongoing unfettered Corbyn would lead us to that, but the choice is between 5 years of Johnson or less than a year of moderated Corbyn.
You misunderstand the key financial risk of a Corbyn government. It is that the gilt coupon rate goes through the roof and refinancing of maturing gilts becomes prohibitively expensive. This is what happened in Greece and, to a lesser extent, Spain, Italy and Portugal 10 years ago. It is not the spending which kills you, it is the borrowing costs.
Imagine a Corbyn government. Unemployment up. Tax intake and investment down. Benefit payments sky rocket. Economy death spiral. How much money will they have for our beloved NHS?
One thing is clear: the NHS will be even worse off under Corbyn because their fiscal plans will lead to a debt crisis for the UK, take us to the edge of bankruptcy and then require drastic cuts to get bailout funding.
Realistically a Corbyn government that we might get this time around will last about 6-9 months and have broadly the same spending injection as the Tories are promising.
Talk of us getting bankrupt in that timescale is absurd hyperbole. Yes ongoing unfettered Corbyn would lead us to that, but the choice is between 5 years of Johnson or less than a year of moderated Corbyn.
I think that’s wishful thinking.
A wise man once said people decide on emotion rather than logic. I put it to you that your dislike of Corbyn is blinding you from the logic and practicalities of how a hung parliament would play out in reality.
But markets can make an analysis just I like I did.
Corbyn at best will have a wafer thin majority to deliver 2nd ref with a GE to follow straight after. None of his policies will have time to be implemented, we will increase spending, just like we would in the Tories and decide again in autumn 2020.
The markets wont mind that at all, it is no worse for them than Brexit.
ps Even if they did increase borrowing costs, the idea that 9 months of borrowing costs at whatever market rate is going to bankrupt the UK is still absurd hyperbole.
I find it doubtful that once Corbyn is in No.10 he will vacate without fighting to the political death.
Why would he? Stopping Brexit may be the all-consuming obsession for remainers but he isn't one of those and he certainly wouldn't sacrifice a lifetimes political ideology on the alter of the EU.
Remainers would be bitterly disappointed in Labour I suspect.
On resigning club, I’ve already ‘resigned’ from Crossrail (2 weeks ago, as it happens) and am leaving that client after nearly 5.5 years. I may do a day or so a week there next year, but I finish there full time at Christmas.
I’m working on a new client for 2020, which may amuse some of you when I reveal it but I can’t discuss it yet.
That means it’s either (a) fixed; or (b) unfixable
We should be told!
I’ve just had enough.
I wouldn’t expect it to open before Christmas 2021.
Crossrail is a project of national importance and like 90% of the country I don't even understand exactly what it is meant to do except make travelling around London easier. What is the problem ? I ask because by God we need to know for HS2, HS 3/4 and the whole Northern Powerhouse. Do you think the equivalent of your concerns are even being considered re the reassessment of HS2 ?
Usual vanity London project , sucking all the investrment from the rest of the country so Londoners get it a bit easier. More over budget than is spent on the rest of the UK.
Rubbish.
The population of London went up by over 1.5 million people between 2001 and 2018. That's like the entire population of Glasgow, Edinburgh, Aberdeen, and Dundee moving there. So London has to build a hell of a lot of everything every year just to stand still. Nor does London make the rest of the country pay for it, as London is a net contributor to UK tax revenue. If anything not enough tax revenue is spent on infrastucture in London.
Very interesting to see the comments on Mumsnet , hardly a bastion of left wingers to see what they made of Johnson’s phone drama .
The thread on that was both illuminating and quite funny at times , especially with some of the language used ! They trash both Johnson and Corbyn on the campaign in general but I’d be worried if I were the Tories about the impact of that phone clip on especially women .
Callous , inhuman etc were just some of the words used . The clip is now on 11.4 million views .
Yes, it’s just the sort of emotive meaningless shit people vote on.
I’m not saying what direct impact it will have. But the comments from many women about Johnson don’t make pretty reading , the site is hardly some left wing echo chamber .
Imagine a Corbyn government. Unemployment up. Tax intake and investment down. Benefit payments sky rocket. Economy death spiral. How much money will they have for our beloved NHS?
One thing is clear: the NHS will be even worse off under Corbyn because their fiscal plans will lead to a debt crisis for the UK, take us to the edge of bankruptcy and then require drastic cuts to get bailout funding.
Realistically a Corbyn government that we might get this time around will last about 6-9 months and have broadly the same spending injection as the Tories are promising.
Talk of us getting bankrupt in that timescale is absurd hyperbole. Yes ongoing unfettered Corbyn would lead us to that, but the choice is between 5 years of Johnson or less than a year of moderated Corbyn.
You misunderstand the key financial risk of a Corbyn government. It is that the gilt coupon rate goes through the roof and refinancing of maturing gilts becomes prohibitively expensive. This is what happened in Greece and, to a lesser extent, Spain, Italy and Portugal 10 years ago. It is not the spending which kills you, it is the borrowing costs.
The same could happen if Brexit turns bad.
Spain, Italy & Portugal did not control their own currency. The UK does. It’s a crucial difference, because holders of UK gilts know that they will always get paid back, even if it’s in inflated £. Holders of € bonds issued by those countries were in a completely different position - the potential for default was much higher, so the interest rates rose accordingly in a death spiral that was only cut off when the € central bank announced that they were going to print come what may. Because the UK controls our own currency, we can never enter this “coffin corner” - yes, gilt rates may rise in response to inflationary concerns, but they’ll never rise as consequence of default risk, which was what drove the € bond crisis.
The impact of tactical voting is clear from the change in the Tory share in the 22 seats they have lost in the new YouGov MRP:
Ynys Mon - down 7 Stroud - down 3 Hyndburn - down 2 Clwyd South - down 1 Leigh - down 1 Kensington - down 1 Putney - down 1 South Cambridgeshire - down 1 Warrington South - down 1 Winchester - down 1 Angus - down 1 High Peak - down 1 Warwick and Leamington - 0 West Bromwich East - 0 Workington - 0 Bury North - 0 Gordon - 0 Weaver Vale - 0 Alyn and Deeside - 0 Chipping Barnet - 0 Dewsbury - up 1 Stoke-on-Trent Central - up 1
Interestingly the Daily Mail website headline is Boris hiding in a Fridge...
Just what I was going to post this very minute. Have they suddenly gone off message ? This is the first time I've not seen them campainging ardently for Johnson for a month in their choice of headline.
But markets can make an analysis just I like I did.
Corbyn at best will have a wafer thin majority to deliver 2nd ref with a GE to follow straight after. None of his policies will have time to be implemented, we will increase spending, just like we would in the Tories and decide again in autumn 2020.
The markets wont mind that at all, it is no worse for them than Brexit.
ps Even if they did increase borrowing costs, the idea that 9 months of borrowing costs at whatever market rate is going to bankrupt the UK is still absurd hyperbole.
I find it doubtful that once Corbyn is in No.10 he will vacate without fighting to the political death.
Why would he? Stopping Brexit may be the all-consuming obsession for remainers but he isn't one of those and he certainly wouldn't sacrifice a lifetimes political ideology on the alter of the EU.
Remainers would be bitterly disappointed in Labour I suspect.
What does fighting to the death mean? He will nominally lead a party of maybe 250-260 MPs, half of whom hate him. The other parties he could end up in a coalition with think he is a joke and toxic to them. They will only deal with him for a 2nd ref, then GE. If he tries to fight to the death, it wont last more than the minimum time needed for a VoNC.
Imagine a Corbyn government. Unemployment up. Tax intake and investment down. Benefit payments sky rocket. Economy death spiral. How much money will they have for our beloved NHS?
One thing is clear: the NHS will be even worse off under Corbyn because their fiscal plans will lead to a debt crisis for the UK, take us to the edge of bankruptcy and then require drastic cuts to get bailout funding.
Realistically a Corbyn government that we might get this time around will last about 6-9 months and have broadly the same spending injection as the Tories are promising.
Talk of us getting bankrupt in that timescale is absurd hyperbole. Yes ongoing unfettered Corbyn would lead us to that, but the choice is between 5 years of Johnson or less than a year of moderated Corbyn.
I think that’s wishful thinking.
A wise man once said people decide on emotion rather than logic. I put it to you that your dislike of Corbyn is blinding you from the logic and practicalities of how a hung parliament would play out in reality.
Corbyn, with the help of the SNP, would pass the budget he wants. As long as they get indyref2 they couldn’t care less.
I don’t see that as being particularly fantastical.
Imagine a Corbyn government. Unemployment up. Tax intake and investment down. Benefit payments sky rocket. Economy death spiral. How much money will they have for our beloved NHS?
One thing is clear: the NHS will be even worse off under Corbyn because their fiscal plans will lead to a debt crisis for the UK, take us to the edge of bankruptcy and then require drastic cuts to get bailout funding.
Realistically a Corbyn government that we might get this time around will last about 6-9 months and have broadly the same spending injection as the Tories are promising.
Talk of us getting bankrupt in that timescale is absurd hyperbole. Yes ongoing unfettered Corbyn would lead us to that, but the choice is between 5 years of Johnson or less than a year of moderated Corbyn.
You misunderstand the key financial risk of a Corbyn government. It is that the gilt coupon rate goes through the roof and refinancing of maturing gilts becomes prohibitively expensive. This is what happened in Greece and, to a lesser extent, Spain, Italy and Portugal 10 years ago. It is not the spending which kills you, it is the borrowing costs.
The same could happen if Brexit turns bad.
Spain, Italy & Portugal did not control their own currency. The UK does. It’s a crucial difference, because holders of UK gilts know that they will always get paid back, even if it’s in inflated £. Holders of € bonds issued by those countries were in a completely different position - the potential for default was much higher, so the interest rates rose accordingly in a death spiral that was only cut off when the € central bank announced that they were going to print come what may. Because the UK controls our own currency, we can never enter this “coffin corner” - yes, gilt rates may rise in response to inflationary concerns, but they’ll never rise as consequence of default risk, which was what drove the € bond crisis.
Complete rubbish. The UK controlled its currency in the 1970s and government borrowing costs did go through the roof due to the perceived risk of default. Nominal gilt yields reached 17% under Callaghan.
Interestingly the Daily Mail website headline is Boris hiding in a Fridge...
Just what I was going to post this very minute. Have they suddenly gone off message ? This is the first time I've not seen them campainging ardently for Johnson for a month in their main headline.
Johnson hiding in a Fridge is front page material no matter the news paper.
The Guardian Front page had the bloody bulldozer going through the polystyrenen blocks as their image this morning before the fridge.
There are some visuals/stories that papers are always going to run.
The Tories might not be too worried by the MRP from last night because it means their voters won't be complacent. If it had said 68 majority again that might have been a problem for the party.
Yes it is good news for us getting supporters to Chingford to knock up
Chingford is so close on the MRP that it's going to be the destination of choice for a big slice of the London Labour Party.
Definitely time for another Portillo moment.
Dr Phil Hammond, who lives in NE Somerset, has wanted to stand against and defeat Mogg for ~3 years. He'd probably stand as an Independent. A pity that no party agreed with him ...
This problem of split anti-Tory votes at a crucial election works all ways. In Stroud, the Green candidate Molly Scott-Cato has annoyed people by standing in a marginal seat with a pro-EU Labour MP. She's already got a very well-paid job as an (excellent) MEP.
Molly Scott Cato is also possibly the most flaky candidate in the GE, even including Lord Buckethead. I am aware of her academic background but that does not excuse articles such as that from The Ecologist in 2009; https://theecologist.org/2009/sep/15/what-would-green-health-system-look.
Dr Phil Hammond in his stand-up comedy is much more impressive than Molly Scott-Cato on what's wrong with the NHS. I'd rather have him design a 'green' healthcare system.
Indeed, her background is 100% economics. Mine's science. The general population wouldn't know what the scientific method was if it bit them. It's very common for people to be good speakers and politicians who wouldn't have a clue what I was on about if I asked for a controlled double blind experiment.
I gather that the only scientist in the Commons was the former LD MP for Cambridge. He left in 2017.
Spain, Italy & Portugal did not control their own currency. The UK does. It’s a crucial difference, because holders of UK gilts know that they will always get paid back, even if it’s in inflated £.
Holders of € bonds issued by those countries were in a completely different position - the potential for default was much higher, so the interest rates rose accordingly in a death spiral that was only cut off when the € central bank announced that they were going to print come what may.
Because the UK controls our own currency, we can never enter this “coffin corner” - yes, gilt rates may rise in response to inflationary concerns, but they’ll never rise as consequence of default risk, which was what drove the € bond crisis.
The bond markets will grip Labour by the throat almost instantly.
The ability to 'print' your own currency is not a solution to the problem of financing government spending...it IS the problem.
We don't even need to search particularly hard for examples of what will happen to the £.
I feel we are in some sort of sinister game of roulette!
I don't think that the outcomes are linear unless you are a Corbynista where simply the more seats for Labour the better.
1. Big Tory majority. Difficult to stomach BUT limits ERG influence so reduced risk of no deal. Enhances chance of either hard left defeat within Labour or re-alignment of centre-left. 2. Middling Tory majority like 2 but watered down. 3. Small Tory majority. Dangerous EU outcomes increase, Labour madness more likely to continue. 4. Tories + DUP majority. Gawd help us! May split Tories again but serious chance of hard Brexit next year. 5. Tory minority government. High risk but could be a sweet spot if LDs and others support withdrawal agreement for 2nd referendum. 6. Corbyn minority. Terrible prospect. Middling economic hit, ultra-left embedded for short term at least, moral stain on GB. 7. Corbyn majority: dystopian disaster beckons.
Very interesting to see the comments on Mumsnet , hardly a bastion of left wingers to see what they made of Johnson’s phone drama .
The thread on that was both illuminating and quite funny at times , especially with some of the language used ! They trash both Johnson and Corbyn on the campaign in general but I’d be worried if I were the Tories about the impact of that phone clip on especially women .
Callous , inhuman etc were just some of the words used . The clip is now on 11.4 million views .
Yes, it’s just the sort of emotive meaningless shit people vote on.
I’m not saying what direct impact it will have. But the comments from many women about Johnson don’t make pretty reading , the site is hardly some left wing echo chamber .
This is lovely reasoning, but it's totally out of line with what's actually happening.
Last time, the Tory poll share stayed resolutely in the low 40s throughout the campaign (apart from an early burst up to mid 40s which never looked sustainable). It was the Labour share that moved, cannibalising the LD/Green voters.
This time, Johnson has been again rock steady on low 40s (usually 42; YouGov MRP has him on 43 I think). The Labour vote share was slowly climbing from high 20s to low 30s, but then got stuck around 32-34.
If Johnson looks so awful relative to the start of the campaign, why isn't he losing voters? If he is, he must be just exchanging voters in marginals for those in safer seats, or he's driving turnout down on both sides somehow.
The Brexit Party has improved in Barnsley according to the new MRP figures.
For instance Barnsley Central was Lab 44%, BRX 25%, Con 20%. Now it's Lab 45%, BRX 30%, Con 16%.
It is going to be absolutely fascinating to see how this Yougov MRP performs. It called some amazing constituency results last time out but I wonder if it was a lucky shot. Can't think that the inclusion of BXP in Labour held constituencies makes this easier to model.
Very interesting to see the comments on Mumsnet , hardly a bastion of left wingers to see what they made of Johnson’s phone drama .
The thread on that was both illuminating and quite funny at times , especially with some of the language used ! They trash both Johnson and Corbyn on the campaign in general but I’d be worried if I were the Tories about the impact of that phone clip on especially women .
Callous , inhuman etc were just some of the words used . The clip is now on 11.4 million views .
I wouldn't disagree with "callous" or "inhuman," but surely "plain stupid" should be in there vying for first place.
Was: Con 40%, Lab 39%, LD 11%. Now: Con 43%, Lab 43%, LD 8%.
Any other "red wall" seats that have moved to the tories despite Labour closing the gap by 2% nationally, please. 😊
Hold on that’s Labour making progress not the Tories. They’ve closed the gap in Bedford
Bedford is not in the crucial red wall. Ofcourse there will be some places Labour make progress. But there is a chance tories are still advancing in heavily Leave areas in the north and Midlands
I feel we are in some sort of sinister game of roulette!
I don't think that the outcomes are linear unless you are a Corbynista where simply the more seats for Labour the better.
1. Big Tory majority. Difficult to stomach BUT limits ERG influence so reduced risk of no deal. Enhances chance of either hard left defeat within Labour or re-alignment of centre-left. 2. Middling Tory majority like 2 but watered down. 3. Small Tory majority. Dangerous EU outcomes increase, Labour madness more likely to continue. 4. Tories + DUP majority. Gawd help us! May split Tories again but serious chance of hard Brexit next year. 5. Tory minority government. High risk but could be a sweet spot if LDs and others support withdrawal agreement for 2nd referendum. 6. Corbyn minority. Terrible prospect. Middling economic hit, ultra-left embedded for short term at least, moral stain on GB. 7. Corbyn majority: dystopian disaster beckons.
Corbyn at best will have a wafer thin majority to deliver 2nd ref with a GE to follow straight after. None of his policies will have time to be implemented, we will increase spending, just like we would in the Tories and decide again in autumn 2020. .
Corbo is going to have the SNP and LD control rods moderating him and preventing him from going full Чорнобиль.
Imagine a Corbyn government. Unemployment up. Tax intake and investment down. Benefit payments sky rocket. Economy death spiral. How much money will they have for our beloved NHS?
Realistically a Corbyn government that we might get this time around will last about 6-9 months and have broadly the same spending injection as the Tories are promising.
Talk of us getting bankrupt in that timescale is absurd hyperbole. Yes ongoing unfettered Corbyn would lead us to that, but the choice is between 5 years of Johnson or less than a year of moderated Corbyn.
You misunderstand the key financial risk of a Corbyn government. It is that the gilt coupon rate goes through the roof and refinancing of maturing gilts becomes prohibitively expensive. This is what happened in Greece and, to a lesser extent, Spain, Italy and Portugal 10 years ago. It is not the spending which kills you, it is the borrowing costs.
But markets can make an analysis just I like I did.
Corbyn at best will have a wafer thin majority to deliver 2nd ref with a GE to follow straight after. None of his policies will have time to be implemented, we will increase spending, just like we would in the Tories and decide again in autumn 2020.
The markets wont mind that at all, it is no worse for them than Brexit.
ps Even if they did increase borrowing costs, the idea that 9 months of borrowing costs at whatever market rate is going to bankrupt the UK is still absurd hyperbole.
Don't get me wrong; I think the likely cost of a hung parliament or even small Corbyn majority is preferable to Johnson and Brexit. But if you think the markets will react as you suggest then you fail to understand the markets. The saving grace would be the opportunity to get rid of Corbyn fast. But if that did not happen then the analogy holds.
To put it into context, the UK has to refinance between £100-150billion of maturing gilts every year on terms which will be fixed, typically, for between 5 and 30 years. This is on top of the new borrowing in the form of additional gilt issues to finance new plans. You work out the numbers. It is the continuing cost over the lifetime of the gilts which is the killer.
One year of refinancing, even if the markets somehow price us in for 30 years of Corbynism despite all evidence to the contrary is not going to bankrupt us though is it? It might cost tens of billions over the long term if it happened, which I really dont think it would, but bankrupt is absurd hyperbole.
Interestingly the Daily Mail website headline is Boris hiding in a Fridge...
Just what I was going to post this very minute. Have they suddenly gone off message ? This is the first time I've not seen them campainging ardently for Johnson for a month in their main headline.
Johnson hiding in a Fridge is front page material no matter the news paper.
The Guardian Front page had the bloody bulldozer going through the polystyrenen blocks as their image this morning before the fridge.
There are some visuals/stories that papers are always going to run.
And yet the Mail has studiously avoided other Johnson screw-ups before and during the campaign for a long time now - and it's had some of its fiercest and most virulent campaigning I've ever seen from it over the last few weeks. There may be something up with this choice of headline and this particular time.
Corbyn at best will have a wafer thin majority to deliver 2nd ref with a GE to follow straight after. None of his policies will have time to be implemented, we will increase spending, just like we would in the Tories and decide again in autumn 2020. .
Corbo is going to have the SNP and LD control rods moderating him and preventing him from going full Чорнобиль.
Probably true but "let's put him in power, we can control him and his movement", where have we heard that before?
I feel we are in some sort of sinister game of roulette!
I don't think that the outcomes are linear unless you are a Corbynista where simply the more seats for Labour the better.
1. Big Tory majority. Difficult to stomach BUT limits ERG influence so reduced risk of no deal. Enhances chance of either hard left defeat within Labour or re-alignment of centre-left. 2. Middling Tory majority like 2 but watered down. 3. Small Tory majority. Dangerous EU outcomes increase, Labour madness more likely to continue. 4. Tories + DUP majority. Gawd help us! May split Tories again but serious chance of hard Brexit next year. 5. Tory minority government. High risk but could be a sweet spot if LDs and others support withdrawal agreement for 2nd referendum. 6. Corbyn minority. Terrible prospect. Middling economic hit, ultra-left embedded for short term at least, moral stain on GB. 7. Corbyn majority: dystopian disaster beckons.
The impact of tactical voting is clear from the change in the Tory share in the 22 seats they have lost in the new YouGov MRP:
Ynys Mon - down 7 Stroud - down 3 Hyndburn - down 2 Clwyd South - down 1 Leigh - down 1 Kensington - down 1 Putney - down 1 South Cambridgeshire - down 1 Warrington South - down 1 Winchester - down 1 Angus - down 1 High Peak - down 1 Warwick and Leamington - 0 West Bromwich East - 0 Workington - 0 Bury North - 0 Gordon - 0 Weaver Vale - 0 Alyn and Deeside - 0 Chipping Barnet - 0 Dewsbury - up 1 Stoke-on-Trent Central - up 1
How can the impact of tactical voting be assessed by looking at the Tory share? Tactical voters are the non-Tories (in most seats)
Was: Con 40%, Lab 39%, LD 11%. Now: Con 43%, Lab 43%, LD 8%.
Any other "red wall" seats that have moved to the tories despite Labour closing the gap by 2% nationally, please. 😊
Hold on that’s Labour making progress not the Tories. They’ve closed the gap in Bedford
Bedford is not in the crucial red wall. Ofcourse there will be some places Labour make progress. But there is a chance tories are still advancing in heavily Leave areas in the north and Midlands
It’s the white working class in the Midlands, Wales and the North that will decide this election. There are plenty of bricks in the red wall and he doesn’t need to smash them all but he needs to be a bigger vote winner than May and hope that some Lab 17 voters will be put off by a second referendum. It’s pretty much that simple.
I feel we are in some sort of sinister game of roulette!
I don't think that the outcomes are linear unless you are a Corbynista where simply the more seats for Labour the better.
1. Big Tory majority. Difficult to stomach BUT limits ERG influence so reduced risk of no deal. Enhances chance of either hard left defeat within Labour or re-alignment of centre-left. 2. Middling Tory majority like 2 but watered down. 3. Small Tory majority. Dangerous EU outcomes increase, Labour madness more likely to continue. 4. Tories + DUP majority. Gawd help us! May split Tories again but serious chance of hard Brexit next year. 5. Tory minority government. High risk but could be a sweet spot if LDs and others support withdrawal agreement for 2nd referendum. 6. Corbyn minority. Terrible prospect. Middling economic hit, ultra-left embedded for short term at least, moral stain on GB. 7. Corbyn majority: dystopian disaster beckons.
Corbyn at best will have a wafer thin majority to deliver 2nd ref with a GE to follow straight after. None of his policies will have time to be implemented, we will increase spending, just like we would in the Tories and decide again in autumn 2020. .
Corbo is going to have the SNP and LD control rods moderating him and preventing him from going full Чорнобиль.
Probably true but "let's put him in power, we can control him and his movement", where have we heard that before?
I meant it as a bad thing. The worse, the better, as Lenin said.
Imagine a Corbyn government. Unemployment up. Tax intake and investment down. Benefit payments sky rocket. Economy death spiral. How much money will they have for our beloved NHS?
One thing is clear: the NHS will be even worse off under Corbyn because their fiscal plans will lead to a debt crisis for the UK, take us to the edge of bankruptcy and then require drastic cuts to get bailout funding.
Realistically a Corbyn government that we might get this time around will last about 6-9 months and have broadly the same spending injection as the Tories are promising.
Talk of us getting bankrupt in that timescale is absurd hyperbole. Yes ongoing unfettered Corbyn would lead us to that, but the choice is between 5 years of Johnson or less than a year of moderated Corbyn.
I think that’s wishful thinking.
A wise man once said people decide on emotion rather than logic. I put it to you that your dislike of Corbyn is blinding you from the logic and practicalities of how a hung parliament would play out in reality.
Corbyn, with the help of the SNP, would pass the budget he wants. As long as they get indyref2 they couldn’t care less.
I don’t see that as being particularly fantastical.
The chance of Labour & SNP having enough votes to win a VONC on their own is sub 3%. The vast majority of times we have a coalition it will play out much closer to the scenario I described.
Interestingly the Daily Mail website headline is Boris hiding in a Fridge...
Just what I was going to post this very minute. Have they suddenly gone off message ? This is the first time I've not seen them campainging ardently for Johnson for a month in their main headline.
Johnson hiding in a Fridge is front page material no matter the news paper.
The Guardian Front page had the bloody bulldozer going through the polystyrenen blocks as their image this morning before the fridge.
There are some visuals/stories that papers are always going to run.
And yet the Mail has studiously avoided other Johnson screw-ups before and during the campaign for a long time now - and it's had some of its fiercest and most virulent campaigning I've ever seen from it over the last few weeks. There may be something up with this choice of headline and this particular time.
I'm not sure it's that much of a screw up. Its GMB being utter idiots and 'stunt pulling', a lot of people hate that sort of thing
I wonder if the obsession with Israel and Palestine is really Corbyn's or if it is in fact our own obsession - I once tried to find out how often he has criticised Israel compared to Saudi Arabia, and it seemed to be comparable. The difference being other people gave a lot more publicity to his criticism of Israel than of Saudi Arabia. I do think his principled hostility to Israeli policy in the occupied territories (and his resistance to going along with the push to conflate any criticism of Israel with anti-semitism) has created both a stupid willingness to give the benefit of the doubt to unprincipled critics of Israel, and a massive avoidable political problem for him and Labour. I think Corbyn is a pretty crap politician, and it's a tragedy to have a fairly rubbish Labour leader at this time. I'd still choose Corbyn over Johnson as PM without a moment's hesitation.
I disagree that equal criticism of Saudi Arabia and Israel is a measure of even-handedness. One is a cruel autocratic theocratic state that turns a blind eye to global funding of wahabi-ist extremesim, the other is far and away the strongest democracy and most liberal state in the region besieged on all sides by well funded terrorists and hostile state actors.
I think equal criticism in these circumstances is a clear sign of...well we can let the EHRC decide.
Also, for some reason, Labour activists don't use Corbyn's criticisms of Saudi Arabia as an excuse to accuse Muslim MPs of dual loyalties and then hound them out of the party.
Without wanting to defend shitty Labour activists, nobody is saying that Corbyn's criticism of Saudi Arabia is evidence of Islamophobia. Although people have said that Corbyn's criticism of Indian policy in Kashmir is evidence of Hinduphobia.
Exactly. It's not about Corbyn; it's about how his activists behave and his unwillingness or inability to do anything about it. He may well be just as useless at combating Islamophobia, but it isn't really an issue for the current Labour party.
However, it's a fact that - for whatever reason - Corbyn's presence as Labour leader has encouraged a bunch of people to feel confident that their abhorrent views are now within the bounds of mainstream thought within the Labour party. If he becomes PM, that will undoubtedly get worse.
I feel we are in some sort of sinister game of roulette!
I don't think that the outcomes are linear unless you are a Corbynista where simply the more seats for Labour the better.
1. Big Tory majority. Difficult to stomach BUT limits ERG influence so reduced risk of no deal. Enhances chance of either hard left defeat within Labour or re-alignment of centre-left. 2. Middling Tory majority like 2 but watered down. 3. Small Tory majority. Dangerous EU outcomes increase, Labour madness more likely to continue. 4. Tories + DUP majority. Gawd help us! May split Tories again but serious chance of hard Brexit next year. 5. Tory minority government. High risk but could be a sweet spot if LDs and others support withdrawal agreement for 2nd referendum. 6. Corbyn minority. Terrible prospect. Middling economic hit, ultra-left embedded for short term at least, moral stain on GB. 7. Corbyn majority: dystopian disaster beckons.
Pass the whisky and revolver.
I would put my house on #5 not happening.
Would be a disaster for the Tories.
Yep it would be the end of the party.
But if the DUP don't support Boris (and that's highly possible) it's a likely option if the results don't give Boris a clear win...
'Who has the obsession?' is a fair point to raise. My perception is that Stop the War and the general tone around the world of student politics (eg waving a Palestinian flag on marches as a literal virtue-signal) is one-eyed and obsessed with the faults of the Israeli state way beyond its relative sinfulness with its neighbours (a bunch of dreadful governments by and large).
Why is the left so one-eyed? Partly, a natural rebellion against Western consensus which can be seen as free-thinking, but also there has been a nasty stain of anti-semitism in socialist and pan-arabist politics which Corbyn et al refuse to recognise and thus they are rightly being kicked, kicked some more, and kicked again on this subject.
The Tories might not be too worried by the MRP from last night because it means their voters won't be complacent. If it had said 68 majority again that might have been a problem for the party.
Yes it is good news for us getting supporters to Chingford to knock up
Chingford is so close on the MRP that it's going to be the destination of choice for a big slice of the London Labour Party.
I'm expecting a miserable night overall, but have hopes (some, at least) of a momentary ray of sunshine as the quiet man is raucously dispatched.
Watching Goldsmith go down will be fun too. Perhaps he can get on with his eco-terrorism afterwards, in between Bollywood films.
I feel we are in some sort of sinister game of roulette!
I don't think that the outcomes are linear unless you are a Corbynista where simply the more seats for Labour the better.
1. Big Tory majority. Difficult to stomach BUT limits ERG influence so reduced risk of no deal. Enhances chance of either hard left defeat within Labour or re-alignment of centre-left. 2. Middling Tory majority like 2 but watered down. 3. Small Tory majority. Dangerous EU outcomes increase, Labour madness more likely to continue. 4. Tories + DUP majority. Gawd help us! May split Tories again but serious chance of hard Brexit next year. 5. Tory minority government. High risk but could be a sweet spot if LDs and others support withdrawal agreement for 2nd referendum. 6. Corbyn minority. Terrible prospect. Middling economic hit, ultra-left embedded for short term at least, moral stain on GB. 7. Corbyn majority: dystopian disaster beckons.
Pass the whisky and revolver.
I would put my house on #5 not happening.
Would be a disaster for the Tories.
Yep it would be the end of the party.
The Tory party will always chose having power over not having it, surely?
Also, I really wouldn’t be that sure that the Conservatives can count on Arlene Foster’s backing after Boris stabbed her in the front over the Brexit deal.
Was: Con 40%, Lab 39%, LD 11%. Now: Con 43%, Lab 43%, LD 8%.
Any other "red wall" seats that have moved to the tories despite Labour closing the gap by 2% nationally, please. 😊
Hold on that’s Labour making progress not the Tories. They’ve closed the gap in Bedford
Bedford is not in the crucial red wall. Ofcourse there will be some places Labour make progress. But there is a chance tories are still advancing in heavily Leave areas in the north and Midlands
It’s the white working class in the Midlands, Wales and the North that will decide this election. There are plenty of bricks in the red wall and he doesn’t need to smash them all but he needs to be a bigger vote winner than May and hope that some Lab 17 voters will be put off by a second referendum. It’s pretty much that simple.
If the women of Peterborough are at all indicative of a 2017 Labour voter they aren’t going to be won over by Johnson
Interestingly the Daily Mail website headline is Boris hiding in a Fridge...
Just what I was going to post this very minute. Have they suddenly gone off message ? This is the first time I've not seen them campainging ardently for Johnson for a month in their main headline.
Johnson hiding in a Fridge is front page material no matter the news paper.
The Guardian Front page had the bloody bulldozer going through the polystyrenen blocks as their image this morning before the fridge.
There are some visuals/stories that papers are always going to run.
And yet the Mail has studiously avoided other Johnson screw-ups before and during the campaign for a long time now - and it's had some of its fiercest and most virulent campaigning I've ever seen from it over the last few weeks. There may be something up with this choice of headline and this particular time.
I'm not sure it's that much of a screw up. Its GMB being utter idiots and 'stunt pulling', a lot of people hate that sort of thing
It's just bad publicity. When a newspaper has been raging in furious partisanship for a month, to suddenly stick on the story that has been leading the Guardian's blog, when it's avoided so many others, is noticeable ; particularly at such a crucial final stage of the campaign.
The Tories might not be too worried by the MRP from last night because it means their voters won't be complacent. If it had said 68 majority again that might have been a problem for the party.
Yes it is good news for us getting supporters to Chingford to knock up
Chingford is so close on the MRP that it's going to be the destination of choice for a big slice of the London Labour Party.
Definitely time for another Portillo moment.
Dr Phil Hammond, who lives in NE Somerset, has wanted to stand against and defeat Mogg for ~3 years. He'd probably stand as an Independent. A pity that no party agreed with him ...
This problem of split anti-Tory votes at a crucial election works all ways. In Stroud, the Green candidate Molly Scott-Cato has annoyed people by standing in a marginal seat with a pro-EU Labour MP. She's already got a very well-paid job as an (excellent) MEP.
Leaving aside the fact that Molly Scott Cato is completely crackers, what on earth has she done that makes her an "excellent MEP"?
For that matter, what distinguishes any good MEP from a bad one? Do they hold constituency surgeries?
The impact of tactical voting is clear from the change in the Tory share in the 22 seats they have lost in the new YouGov MRP:
Ynys Mon - down 7 Stroud - down 3 Hyndburn - down 2 Clwyd South - down 1 Leigh - down 1 Kensington - down 1 Putney - down 1 South Cambridgeshire - down 1 Warrington South - down 1 Winchester - down 1 Angus - down 1 High Peak - down 1 Warwick and Leamington - 0 West Bromwich East - 0 Workington - 0 Bury North - 0 Gordon - 0 Weaver Vale - 0 Alyn and Deeside - 0 Chipping Barnet - 0 Dewsbury - up 1 Stoke-on-Trent Central - up 1
How can the impact of tactical voting be assessed by looking at the Tory share? Tactical voters are the non-Tories (in most seats)
Take High Peak, the Tory share is down 1 but Labour are up 5 and the Lib Dems are down 3.
Only Ynys Mon looks to be a swing away from the Tories.
I know I posted this last night, but I think worth showing again. According to MRP, the first 200 declarations the Tories need to be neck and neck with Labour, before they are forecast to pull away at about 3am. So if the Tories are ahead by then, it should be looking good for them for a majority.
This chart will be updated live on the night, with predicted replaced by actual results, so should get a real time running of the updated outcome.
Note, yes I know the totals are slightly off (YouGov data when neck and neck doesn't state a winner, so in about 10 seats I have just given it the Tories for ease at this time).
The impact of tactical voting is clear from the change in the Tory share in the 22 seats they have lost in the new YouGov MRP:
Ynys Mon - down 7 Stroud - down 3 Hyndburn - down 2 Clwyd South - down 1 Leigh - down 1 Kensington - down 1 Putney - down 1 South Cambridgeshire - down 1 Warrington South - down 1 Winchester - down 1 Angus - down 1 High Peak - down 1 Warwick and Leamington - 0 West Bromwich East - 0 Workington - 0 Bury North - 0 Gordon - 0 Weaver Vale - 0 Alyn and Deeside - 0 Chipping Barnet - 0 Dewsbury - up 1 Stoke-on-Trent Central - up 1
How can the impact of tactical voting be assessed by looking at the Tory share? Tactical voters are the non-Tories (in most seats)
Spain, Italy & Portugal did not control their own currency. The UK does. It’s a crucial difference, because holders of UK gilts know that they will always get paid back, even if it’s in inflated £.
Holders of € bonds issued by those countries were in a completely different position - the potential for default was much higher, so the interest rates rose accordingly in a death spiral that was only cut off when the € central bank announced that they were going to print come what may.
Because the UK controls our own currency, we can never enter this “coffin corner” - yes, gilt rates may rise in response to inflationary concerns, but they’ll never rise as consequence of default risk, which was what drove the € bond crisis.
The bond markets will grip Labour by the throat almost instantly.
The ability to 'print' your own currency is not a solution to the problem of financing government spending...it IS the problem.
We don't even need to search particularly hard for examples of what will happen to the £.
McDonnell has even admitted as much!
If the bond markets expect inflation, then you can expect an up-tick in gilt rates, sure. But you can’t use comparisons with what happened in southern Europe to fear monger, because that was a response to a completely different problem: near term default risk.
There is never going to be any near term default risk in gilts, so we’re never going to be in the position southern Europe was.
Is anyone still undecided as to who to vote for tomorrow?
Still not sure but firming up to be Lib Dems even though Jo Swinson is truly a terrible leader. Uncle Vince would have been so much better (and that's saying something!)
Priority is to get the flip-flopping hapless Stephen Hammond kicked out of Wimbledon. Word on the ground here is that it's still relatively close but a split Labour / LibDem vote would allow Hammond to survive (sadly).
Inexact science but I do lot of work in that constituency and my numbers put Labour slightly ahead of the Lib Dems in Wimbledon, assuming the current rate of switchers continues today.
The MRP puts the LibDems significantly ahead of Labour in Wimbledon. It is based on polling up to yesterday morning, and by its own admission is less likely to pick up the effect of localised campaigns, and hence if anything handicaps the LibDems (whereas Labour's support will be mapped in from lots of other seats by the demographic model).
The anti-Tory vote in Wimbledon is clearly LibDem.
I think the MRP is wrong. The Lib Dem vote in Wimbledon is mostly coming from 2017 Labour voters and what I am seeing is a decent chunk of those 2017 Lab voters returning - primarily over the last two or three days. Although the Lib Dems are flooding the constituency with literature, they don't have the historic VIs for GOTV that Labour does, and Labour has consistently had more canvassers in Wimbledon than the Conservatives and Lib Dems combined (the local candidate is a Momentum chair so has had a lot of resources funneled to her). Based on the data I have I'd say it's neck and neck right now with Labour pulling slightly ahead.
Suffice to say yellows and reds alike are all Johnson enablers. Well done.
Corbyn at best will have a wafer thin majority to deliver 2nd ref with a GE to follow straight after. None of his policies will have time to be implemented, we will increase spending, just like we would in the Tories and decide again in autumn 2020. .
Corbo is going to have the SNP and LD control rods moderating him and preventing him from going full Чорнобиль.
Probably true but "let's put him in power, we can control him and his movement", where have we heard that before?
This?
"Von Papen had assured Hindenburg that he could keep Hitler under control."
'Who has the obsession?' is a fair point to raise. My perception is that Stop the War and the general tone around the world of student politics (eg waving a Palestinian flag on marches as a literal virtue-signal) is one-eyed and obsessed with the faults of the Israeli state way beyond its relative sinfulness with its neighbours (a bunch of dreadful governments by and large).
Why is the left so one-eyed? Partly, a natural rebellion against Western consensus which can be seen as free-thinking, but also there has been a nasty stain of anti-semitism in socialist and pan-arabist politics which Corbyn et al refuse to recognise and thus they are rightly being kicked, kicked some more, and kicked again on this subject.
He was as popular and handsome as Richard Burton. Coz I seen him on the box once with his black shirt on.
Was: Con 40%, Lab 39%, LD 11%. Now: Con 43%, Lab 43%, LD 8%.
Any other "red wall" seats that have moved to the tories despite Labour closing the gap by 2% nationally, please. 😊
Hold on that’s Labour making progress not the Tories. They’ve closed the gap in Bedford
Bedford is not in the crucial red wall. Ofcourse there will be some places Labour make progress. But there is a chance tories are still advancing in heavily Leave areas in the north and Midlands
Last of the low hanging fruit for the Tories in East Anglia. Other Labour seats will require very large swings in future GEs
I feel we are in some sort of sinister game of roulette!
I don't think that the outcomes are linear unless you are a Corbynista where simply the more seats for Labour the better.
1. Big Tory majority. Difficult to stomach BUT limits ERG influence so reduced risk of no deal. Enhances chance of either hard left defeat within Labour or re-alignment of centre-left. 2. Middling Tory majority like 2 but watered down. 3. Small Tory majority. Dangerous EU outcomes increase, Labour madness more likely to continue. 4. Tories + DUP majority. Gawd help us! May split Tories again but serious chance of hard Brexit next year. 5. Tory minority government. High risk but could be a sweet spot if LDs and others support withdrawal agreement for 2nd referendum. 6. Corbyn minority. Terrible prospect. Middling economic hit, ultra-left embedded for short term at least, moral stain on GB. 7. Corbyn majority: dystopian disaster beckons.
Pass the whisky and revolver.
6 and 7 won't happen. 5 is highly unlikely. You could suffix points 1 to 4 with dystopian disaster beckons. That would work!
Pretty well expresses my feelings about this election.
The problem with that kind of result is it will mean years of silly buggery and stalemate, which is ultimately terrible for the country in the longer run. Just look how nothing has got done for 2+ years (and don't mean just Brexit). What happens if everything grinds to a halt. Now that stops the more extreme bollocks, but literally nothing gets sorted. No more money for the NHS, no extra police, nothing.
Spain, Italy & Portugal did not control their own currency. The UK does. It’s a crucial difference, because holders of UK gilts know that they will always get paid back, even if it’s in inflated £.
Holders of € bonds issued by those countries were in a completely different position - the potential for default was much higher, so the interest rates rose accordingly in a death spiral that was only cut off when the € central bank announced that they were going to print come what may.
Because the UK controls our own currency, we can never enter this “coffin corner” - yes, gilt rates may rise in response to inflationary concerns, but they’ll never rise as consequence of default risk, which was what drove the € bond crisis.
The bond markets will grip Labour by the throat almost instantly.
The ability to 'print' your own currency is not a solution to the problem of financing government spending...it IS the problem.
We don't even need to search particularly hard for examples of what will happen to the £.
McDonnell has even admitted as much!
If the bond markets expect inflation, then you can expect an up-tick in gilt rates, sure. But you can’t use comparisons with what happened in southern Europe to fear monger, because that was a response to a completely different problem: near term default risk.
There is never going to be any near term default risk in gilts, so we’re never going to be in the position southern Europe was.
Corbyn at best will have a wafer thin majority to deliver 2nd ref with a GE to follow straight after. None of his policies will have time to be implemented, we will increase spending, just like we would in the Tories and decide again in autumn 2020. .
Corbo is going to have the SNP and LD control rods moderating him and preventing him from going full Чорнобиль.
Probably true but "let's put him in power, we can control him and his movement", where have we heard that before?
Indeed ... i can't believe Remainers (who are supposed to be the brainy ones, so we're told) would risk Corbyn in order to block Brexit but apparently they are going to (again). Once the Marxists get a hold of power they don't let go (see Labour Leadership elections for the most recent example). They only need to be lucky once.
Ironically the more "unelectable" Corbyn and his cronies appear to be the more likely the are to be elected (either because people think the chance is low so their anti-Tory vote is safe or becuase they think he can be controlled once in Government).
At this stage all we can do is trust that the great British public hasn't lost its collective marbles.
'Who has the obsession?' is a fair point to raise. My perception is that Stop the War and the general tone around the world of student politics (eg waving a Palestinian flag on marches as a literal virtue-signal) is one-eyed and obsessed with the faults of the Israeli state way beyond its relative sinfulness with its neighbours (a bunch of dreadful governments by and large).
Why is the left so one-eyed? Partly, a natural rebellion against Western consensus which can be seen as free-thinking, but also there has been a nasty stain of anti-semitism in socialist and pan-arabist politics which Corbyn et al refuse to recognise and thus they are rightly being kicked, kicked some more, and kicked again on this subject.
Kicked until they come within a hair's breadth of being put into power.
Spain, Italy & Portugal did not control their own currency. The UK does. It’s a crucial difference, because holders of UK gilts know that they will always get paid back, even if it’s in inflated £.
Holders of € bonds issued by those countries were in a completely different position - the potential for default was much higher, so the interest rates rose accordingly in a death spiral that was only cut off when the € central bank announced that they were going to print come what may.
Because the UK controls our own currency, we can never enter this “coffin corner” - yes, gilt rates may rise in response to inflationary concerns, but they’ll never rise as consequence of default risk, which was what drove the € bond crisis.
The bond markets will grip Labour by the throat almost instantly.
The ability to 'print' your own currency is not a solution to the problem of financing government spending...it IS the problem.
We don't even need to search particularly hard for examples of what will happen to the £.
McDonnell has even admitted as much!
If the bond markets expect inflation, then you can expect an up-tick in gilt rates, sure. But you can’t use comparisons with what happened in southern Europe to fear monger, because that was a response to a completely different problem: near term default risk.
There is never going to be any near term default risk in gilts, so we’re never going to be in the position southern Europe was.
Callaghan. 17% gilt rate.
Actual interest rates will do our economy a world of good, remove a lot of zombie businesses and actually reveal the truth about the UK economy.
I suspect what would be revealed won't be pleasant.
Comments
That's fresh!
The thread on that was both illuminating and quite funny at times , especially with some of the language used ! They trash both Johnson and Corbyn on the campaign in general but I’d be worried if I were the Tories about the impact of that phone clip on especially women .
Callous , inhuman etc were just some of the words used . The clip is now on 11.4 million views .
For instance Barnsley Central was Lab 44%, BRX 25%, Con 20%.
Now it's Lab 45%, BRX 30%, Con 16%.
Corbyn at best will have a wafer thin majority to deliver 2nd ref with a GE to follow straight after. None of his policies will have time to be implemented, we will increase spending, just like we would in the Tories and decide again in autumn 2020.
The markets wont mind that at all, it is no worse for them than Brexit.
ps Even if they did increase borrowing costs, the idea that 9 months of borrowing costs at whatever market rate is going to bankrupt the UK is still absurd hyperbole.
I had intended to let them run but tomorrow could be anything and i've no idea what will happen.
Not a cat in hells chance for anyone other than the invisible Tory carpetbagger wanting a safe seat obviously, but an interesting shift from YouGov. I think they wanted to know how willing LD voters in my age group and income were willing to vote Lab.
Interesting that certain demographics must have moved towards the Tories over the last two weeks, against the overall national trend.
Add in DUP, and its a wafer thin majority whilst Lab, SNP, LD, PC and Green are all willing to work together, as soon as 2nd ref is done there is a new GE almost certainly.
Like the last election there has been no detailed examination of Labour's manifesto on TV or much of the media.
To pick two barmy policies that would be deeply unpopular if understood properly:
1. 10% share appropriation. This is a corker and is taken apart here https://capx.co/the-10-share-policy-that-would-decimate-corporate-britain/
2. The policy to "upgrade almost all of the UK’s 27 million homes to the highest energy-efficiency standards" which I understand has been explained as forcing homeowners to pay for work on their properties under a government controlled scheme. The costs of the enforced payments or loans supposedly covered by energy savings. What could possibly go wrong?
Every paragraph of the long manifesto is stuffed with half-baked schemes or ideological nonsense.
It is a point of principle for me not to vote Labour under current leadership because of antisemitism and support for terrorists and Islamo-fascist movements but I can't understand why Corbyn and McDonald get such a free ride on economics!
Was: Con 40%, Lab 39%, LD 11%.
Now: Con 43%, Lab 43%, LD 8%.
To put it into context, the UK has to refinance between £100-150billion of maturing gilts every year on terms which will be fixed, typically, for between 5 and 30 years. This is on top of the new borrowing in the form of additional gilt issues to finance new plans. You work out the numbers. It is the continuing cost over the lifetime of the gilts which is the killer.
Why would he? Stopping Brexit may be the all-consuming obsession for remainers but he isn't one of those and he certainly wouldn't sacrifice a lifetimes political ideology on the alter of the EU.
Remainers would be bitterly disappointed in Labour I suspect.
The population of London went up by over 1.5 million people between 2001 and 2018. That's like the entire population of Glasgow, Edinburgh, Aberdeen, and Dundee moving there. So London has to build a hell of a lot of everything every year just to stand still. Nor does London make the rest of the country pay for it, as London is a net contributor to UK tax revenue. If anything not enough tax revenue is spent on infrastucture in London.
Holders of € bonds issued by those countries were in a completely different position - the potential for default was much higher, so the interest rates rose accordingly in a death spiral that was only cut off when the € central bank announced that they were going to print come what may.
Because the UK controls our own currency, we can never enter this “coffin corner” - yes, gilt rates may rise in response to inflationary concerns, but they’ll never rise as consequence of default risk, which was what drove the € bond crisis.
Ynys Mon - down 7
Stroud - down 3
Hyndburn - down 2
Clwyd South - down 1
Leigh - down 1
Kensington - down 1
Putney - down 1
South Cambridgeshire - down 1
Warrington South - down 1
Winchester - down 1
Angus - down 1
High Peak - down 1
Warwick and Leamington - 0
West Bromwich East - 0
Workington - 0
Bury North - 0
Gordon - 0
Weaver Vale - 0
Alyn and Deeside - 0
Chipping Barnet - 0
Dewsbury - up 1
Stoke-on-Trent Central - up 1
We tories can clutch straws aswll you know.
I don’t see that as being particularly fantastical.
The Guardian Front page had the bloody bulldozer going through the polystyrenen blocks as their image this morning before the fridge.
There are some visuals/stories that papers are always going to run.
Indeed, her background is 100% economics. Mine's science. The general population wouldn't know what the scientific method was if it bit them. It's very common for people to be good speakers and politicians who wouldn't have a clue what I was on about if I asked for a controlled double blind experiment.
I gather that the only scientist in the Commons was the former LD MP for Cambridge. He left in 2017.
The ability to 'print' your own currency is not a solution to the problem of financing government spending...it IS the problem.
We don't even need to search particularly hard for examples of what will happen to the £.
McDonnell has even admitted as much!
https://1drv.ms/x/s!Av4jQcUMVtBpijZ1Eob6KF9C2yun
Lots of columns, share then rank and then some differences between the parties.
I don't think that the outcomes are linear unless you are a Corbynista where simply the more seats for Labour the better.
1. Big Tory majority. Difficult to stomach BUT limits ERG influence so reduced risk of no deal. Enhances chance of either hard left defeat within Labour or re-alignment of centre-left.
2. Middling Tory majority like 2 but watered down.
3. Small Tory majority. Dangerous EU outcomes increase, Labour madness more likely to continue.
4. Tories + DUP majority. Gawd help us! May split Tories again but serious chance of hard Brexit next year.
5. Tory minority government. High risk but could be a sweet spot if LDs and others support withdrawal agreement for 2nd referendum.
6. Corbyn minority. Terrible prospect. Middling economic hit, ultra-left embedded for short term at least, moral stain on GB.
7. Corbyn majority: dystopian disaster beckons.
Pass the whisky and revolver.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1&v=Lp9XoiFbZcI
Last time, the Tory poll share stayed resolutely in the low 40s throughout the campaign (apart from an early burst up to mid 40s which never looked sustainable). It was the Labour share that moved, cannibalising the LD/Green voters.
This time, Johnson has been again rock steady on low 40s (usually 42; YouGov MRP has him on 43 I think). The Labour vote share was slowly climbing from high 20s to low 30s, but then got stuck around 32-34.
If Johnson looks so awful relative to the start of the campaign, why isn't he losing voters? If he is, he must be just exchanging voters in marginals for those in safer seats, or he's driving turnout down on both sides somehow.
Not long to wait.
Would be a disaster for the Tories.
What has the Conservatives actually achieved with this extra week that they were absolutely insistent we had to have?
However, it's a fact that - for whatever reason - Corbyn's presence as Labour leader has encouraged a bunch of people to feel confident that their abhorrent views are now within the bounds of mainstream thought within the Labour party. If he becomes PM, that will undoubtedly get worse.
'Who has the obsession?' is a fair point to raise. My perception is that Stop the War and the general tone around the world of student politics (eg waving a Palestinian flag on marches as a literal virtue-signal) is one-eyed and obsessed with the faults of the Israeli state way beyond its relative sinfulness with its neighbours (a bunch of dreadful governments by and large).
Why is the left so one-eyed? Partly, a natural rebellion against Western consensus which can be seen as free-thinking, but also there has been a nasty stain of anti-semitism in socialist and pan-arabist politics which Corbyn et al refuse to recognise and thus they are rightly being kicked, kicked some more, and kicked again on this subject.
This will not be a good election for the bank balance.
Watching Goldsmith go down will be fun too. Perhaps he can get on with his eco-terrorism afterwards, in between Bollywood films.
Also, I really wouldn’t be that sure that the Conservatives can count on Arlene Foster’s backing after Boris stabbed her in the front over the Brexit deal.
Was: SNP 42%, Con 36%.
Now: SNP 40%, Con 37%.
For that matter, what distinguishes any good MEP from a bad one? Do they hold constituency surgeries?
Only Ynys Mon looks to be a swing away from the Tories.
This chart will be updated live on the night, with predicted replaced by actual results, so should get a real time running of the updated outcome.
Note, yes I know the totals are slightly off (YouGov data when neck and neck doesn't state a winner, so in about 10 seats I have just given it the Tories for ease at this time).
There is never going to be any near term default risk in gilts, so we’re never going to be in the position southern Europe was.
"Von Papen had assured Hindenburg that he could keep Hitler under control."
He was as popular and handsome as Richard Burton.
Coz I seen him on the box once with his black shirt on.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/dec/11/brexit-boris-johnson-corbyn-election-result
Pretty well expresses my feelings about this election.
and though I cannot claim to be a great authority
as far as I'm concerned the sun shone out of his oratory.
Ironically the more "unelectable" Corbyn and his cronies appear to be the more likely the are to be elected (either because people think the chance is low so their anti-Tory vote is safe or becuase they think he can be controlled once in Government).
At this stage all we can do is trust that the great British public hasn't lost its collective marbles.
I suspect what would be revealed won't be pleasant.