Pretty well expresses my feelings about this election.
The problem with that kind of result is it will mean years of silly buggery and stalemate, which is ultimately terrible for the country in the longer run. Just look how nothing has got done for 2+ years (and don't mean just Brexit). What happens if everything grinds to a halt. Now that stops the more extreme bollocks, but literally nothing gets sorted. No more money for the NHS, no extra police, nothing.
Well perhaps one of the two main parties may eventually decide to attract some centrists and win a proper majority rather than picking idiots and idealogues.
Corbyn at best will have a wafer thin majority to deliver 2nd ref with a GE to follow straight after. None of his policies will have time to be implemented, we will increase spending, just like we would in the Tories and decide again in autumn 2020. .
Corbo is going to have the SNP and LD control rods moderating him and preventing him from going full Чорнобиль.
Unfortunately it doesn't quite work like that. Once you get appointed prime minister you have access to the nuclear codes regardless of whether you're heading a majority, minority or coalition government.
Spain, Italy & Portugal did not control their own currency. The UK does. It’s a crucial difference, because holders of UK gilts know that they will always get paid back, even if it’s in inflated £.
Holders of € bonds issued by those countries were in a completely different position - the potential for default was much higher, so the interest rates rose accordingly in a death spiral that was only cut off when the € central bank announced that they were going to print come what may.
Because the UK controls our own currency, we can never enter this “coffin corner” - yes, gilt rates may rise in response to inflationary concerns, but they’ll never rise as consequence of default risk, which was what drove the € bond crisis.
The bond markets will grip Labour by the throat almost instantly.
The ability to 'print' your own currency is not a solution to the problem of financing government spending...it IS the problem.
We don't even need to search particularly hard for examples of what will happen to the £.
McDonnell has even admitted as much!
If the bond markets expect inflation, then you can expect an up-tick in gilt rates, sure. But you can’t use comparisons with what happened in southern Europe to fear monger, because that was a response to a completely different problem: near term default risk.
There is never going to be any near term default risk in gilts, so we’re never going to be in the position southern Europe was.
Callaghan. 17% gilt rate.
Actual interest rates will do our economy a world of good, remove a lot of zombie businesses and actually reveal the truth about the UK economy.
I suspect what would be revealed won't be pleasant.
High gilt rates would transfer wealth from the many to the few.
The Tories might not be too worried by the MRP from last night because it means their voters won't be complacent. If it had said 68 majority again that might have been a problem for the party.
Yes it is good news for us getting supporters to Chingford to knock up
Chingford is so close on the MRP that it's going to be the destination of choice for a big slice of the London Labour Party.
I'm expecting a miserable night overall, but have hopes (some, at least) of a momentary ray of sunshine as the quiet man is raucously dispatched.
Watching Goldsmith go down will be fun too. Perhaps he can get on with his eco-terrorism afterwards, in between Bollywood films.
I feel we are in some sort of sinister game of roulette!
I don't think that the outcomes are linear unless you are a Corbynista where simply the more seats for Labour the better.
1. Big Tory majority. Difficult to stomach BUT limits ERG influence so reduced risk of no deal. Enhances chance of either hard left defeat within Labour or re-alignment of centre-left. 2. Middling Tory majority like 2 but watered down. 3. Small Tory majority. Dangerous EU outcomes increase, Labour madness more likely to continue. 4. Tories + DUP majority. Gawd help us! May split Tories again but serious chance of hard Brexit next year. 5. Tory minority government. High risk but could be a sweet spot if LDs and others support withdrawal agreement for 2nd referendum. 6. Corbyn minority. Terrible prospect. Middling economic hit, ultra-left embedded for short term at least, moral stain on GB. 7. Corbyn majority: dystopian disaster beckons.
Pass the whisky and revolver.
6 and 7 won't happen. 5 is highly unlikely. You could suffix points 1 to 4 with dystopian disaster beckons. That would work!
4 is equally unlikely. I think the truth is that unless the Tories win a majority we haven't a clue what is going to happen.
Pretty well expresses my feelings about this election.
If we get a hung parliament we will be doing all this again pretty much immediately.
And we will end up repeatedly doing it until there is a parliamentary majority for a Brexit resolution.
One thing i'm sure of is that the Tories won't walk back in to the FTPA trap of being in government but not in power with the opposition blocking the exits.
For those that are interested (trying not to spam). All things been well, all of this should be automatically updating itself on the night. It isn't designed to be a necessarily a "real time" results services, more how well is YouGov MRP actually doing, are the Tories really winning in the right areas, etc, and if so what the result will be. Thus, people can bet accordingly.
Was: Con 40%, Lab 39%, LD 11%. Now: Con 43%, Lab 43%, LD 8%.
Any other "red wall" seats that have moved to the tories despite Labour closing the gap by 2% nationally, please. 😊
Hold on that’s Labour making progress not the Tories. They’ve closed the gap in Bedford
Bedford is not in the crucial red wall. Ofcourse there will be some places Labour make progress. But there is a chance tories are still advancing in heavily Leave areas in the north and Midlands
Last of the low hanging fruit for the Tories in East Anglia. Other Labour seats will require very large swings in future GEs
You misunderstand the key financial risk of a Corbyn government. It is that the gilt coupon rate goes through the roof and refinancing of maturing gilts becomes prohibitively expensive. This is what happened in Greece and, to a lesser extent, Spain, Italy and Portugal 10 years ago. It is not the spending which kills you, it is the borrowing costs.
The same could happen if Brexit turns bad.
Spain, Italy & Portugal did not control their own currency. The UK does. It’s a crucial difference, because holders of UK gilts know that they will always get paid back, even if it’s in inflated £. Holders of € bonds issued by those countries were in a completely different position - the potential for default was much higher, so the interest rates rose accordingly in a death spiral that was only cut off when the € central bank announced that they were going to print come what may. Because the UK controls our own currency, we can never enter this “coffin corner” - yes, gilt rates may rise in response to inflationary concerns, but they’ll never rise as consequence of default risk, which was what drove the € bond crisis.
Complete rubbish. The UK controlled its currency in the 1970s and government borrowing costs did go through the roof due to the perceived risk of default. Nominal gilt yields reached 17% under Callaghan.
Inflation risk gets priced into gilts/bonds all the time. The 70s gilt rates was a response to rampant inflation.
Southern Europe’s problem was near term default risk. Gilt holders will always get £ back. They might be worth less due to inflation, but you’ll still get them back. € bond holders were worried about getting /nothing/. That’s an edge case that can never apply to gilts because we can in fact print if necessary.
Ironically, the ability to print if absolutely necessary prevents gilt rates from rising out of control during a crisis.
Pretty well expresses my feelings about this election.
The problem with that kind of result is it will mean years of silly buggery and stalemate, which is ultimately terrible for the country in the longer run. Just look how nothing has got done for 2+ years (and don't mean just Brexit). What happens if everything grinds to a halt. Now that stops the more extreme bollocks, but literally nothing gets sorted. No more money for the NHS, no extra police, nothing.
Well perhaps one of the two main parties may eventually decide to attract some centrists and win a proper majority rather than picking idiots and idealogues.
Much that I would love a return to all three parties arguing over social issues like gay marriage and minor differences in where / whom to tax / benefit, while all agreeing that a pro business liberal democracy under a capitalist system is the superior system, that isn't the choice here. And if it is very close, Labour certainly aren't going to pivot back to the middle, instead it will be one more heave with the winds of a global recession blowing that will get them into power.
Inflation risk gets priced into gilts/bonds all the time. The 70s gilt rates was a response to rampant inflation.
Southern Europe’s problem was near term default risk. Gilt holders will always get £ back. They might be worth less due to inflation, but you’ll still get them back. € bond holders were worried about getting /nothing/. That’s an edge case that can never apply to gilts because we can in fact print if necessary.
Ironically, the ability to print if absolutely necessary prevents gilt rates from rising out of control during a crisis.
What do you think will happen to inflation when Labour resort to printing to finance government spending?
Corbyn at best will have a wafer thin majority to deliver 2nd ref with a GE to follow straight after. None of his policies will have time to be implemented, we will increase spending, just like we would in the Tories and decide again in autumn 2020. .
Corbo is going to have the SNP and LD control rods moderating him and preventing him from going full Чорнобиль.
Unfortunately it doesn't quite work like that. Once you get appointed prime minister you have access to the nuclear codes regardless of whether you're heading a majority, minority or coalition government.
We are not going to need nuclear codes in the 6-9 months it will take to have a 2nd ref! We are just not. And if we are, we are fucked anyway.
Was: Con 40%, Lab 39%, LD 11%. Now: Con 43%, Lab 43%, LD 8%.
Any other "red wall" seats that have moved to the tories despite Labour closing the gap by 2% nationally, please. 😊
Hold on that’s Labour making progress not the Tories. They’ve closed the gap in Bedford
Bedford is not in the crucial red wall. Ofcourse there will be some places Labour make progress. But there is a chance tories are still advancing in heavily Leave areas in the north and Midlands
Last of the low hanging fruit for the Tories in East Anglia. Other Labour seats will require very large swings in future GEs
The only way the Tories can make progress in Remainia of SE England is through changes in the opposition vote and not losing their own remain voters. It is a little out of their control. I get the feeling the Tories beginning to panic.
On resigning club, I’ve already ‘resigned’ from Crossrail (2 weeks ago, as it happens) and am leaving that client after nearly 5.5 years. I may do a day or so a week there next year, but I finish there full time at Christmas.
I’m working on a new client for 2020, which may amuse some of you when I reveal it but I can’t discuss it yet.
That means it’s either (a) fixed; or (b) unfixable
We should be told!
I’ve just had enough.
I wouldn’t expect it to open before Christmas 2021.
Crossrail is a project of national importance and like 90% of the country I don't even understand exactly what it is meant to do except make travelling around London easier. What is the problem ? I ask because by God we need to know for HS2, HS 3/4 and the whole Northern Powerhouse. Do you think the equivalent of your concerns are even being considered re the reassessment of HS2 ?
The business case for Crossrail is pretty sound. The mission statement is “keeping London moving” and you can see why that’s the case at rush hour, with the extensive queues and closures at Bank, Holborn, Victoria, Canary Wharf and Tottenham Court Road. The tube is at capacity and it’s becoming a choke on growth.
Crossrail will link the nation’s main airport with the West End (it’s primary retail and tourist zone) with the City and Canary Wharf (it’s primary business and financial districts). It will also make it much easier for commuters in the Thames Valley and Essex to access all those areas.
The net effect is to allow London to retain its status as a global and European hub, attracting more inward investment, greatly boosting jobs and tax revenue. This will help the Exchequer and the funding of public services.
Unfortunately, the political optics are poor as it looks like gold-plating London, but the RoR is at least 3:1.
HS2 is a bit more speculative (and nowhere near as well-run as Crossrail yet) but is a strategic piece of infrastructure aimed at changing the economic geography of the country. The West and East coast main lines are also approaching capacity and it takes an age to get to places like Leeds, and you can’t always find a seat.
So basically, Crossrail taps into and retains London as a global hub, together with Heathrow expansion, and HS2 taps in the rest of the country into that too and will act as a facilitator for further regional investment projects in the North.
absolute bollox, it helps london and southeast as usual
Is there a seat we can keep an eye on that will indicate the likelihood of a majority or a Hung Parliament, that will he declared early on?
I think we should get a good idea after the first 100 seats if YouGov MRP is accurate, if the Tories are under / over performing it. From that, we should be able to project forward.
If only somebody would have a system that would do that in real time...
On resigning club, I’ve already ‘resigned’ from Crossrail (2 weeks ago, as it happens) and am leaving that client after nearly 5.5 years. I may do a day or so a week there next year, but I finish there full time at Christmas.
I’m working on a new client for 2020, which may amuse some of you when I reveal it but I can’t discuss it yet.
That means it’s either (a) fixed; or (b) unfixable
We should be told!
I’ve just had enough.
I wouldn’t expect it to open before Christmas 2021.
Crossrail is a project of national importance and like 90% of the country I don't even understand exactly what it is meant to do except make travelling around London easier. What is the problem ? I ask because by God we need to know for HS2, HS 3/4 and the whole Northern Powerhouse. Do you think the equivalent of your concerns are even being considered re the reassessment of HS2 ?
The business case for Crossrail is pretty sound. The mission statement is “keeping London moving” and you can see why that’s the case at rush hour, with the extensive queues and closures at Bank, Holborn, Victoria, Canary Wharf and Tottenham Court Road. The tube is at capacity and it’s becoming a choke on growth.
Crossrail will link the nation’s main airport with the West End (it’s primary retail and tourist zone) with the City and Canary Wharf (it’s primary business and financial districts). It will also make it much easier for commuters in the Thames Valley and Essex to access all those areas.
The net effect is to allow London to retain its status as a global and European hub, attracting more inward investment, greatly boosting jobs and tax revenue. This will help the Exchequer and the funding of public services.
Unfortunately, the political optics are poor as it looks like gold-plating London, but the RoR is at least 3:1.
HS2 is a bit more speculative (and nowhere near as well-run as Crossrail yet) but is a strategic piece of infrastructure aimed at changing the economic geography of the country. The West and East coast main lines are also approaching capacity and it takes an age to get to places like Leeds, and you can’t always find a seat.
So basically, Crossrail taps into and retains London as a global hub, together with Heathrow expansion, and HS2 taps in the rest of the country into that too and will act as a facilitator for further regional investment projects in the North.
absolute bollox, it helps london and southeast as usual
The Tories might not be too worried by the MRP from last night because it means their voters won't be complacent. If it had said 68 majority again that might have been a problem for the party.
Yes it is good news for us getting supporters to Chingford to knock up
Please save your breath. Why on earth would you want the odious IDS back in parliament? The young girl that is the Labour candidate is PhD Oxford and has a great backstory. One for the future. IDS is a depressing throwback.
She is a Momentum backed hard left fanatic, IDS a good local MP who will get Brexit done
And what makes a PhD from oxford somebody who can relate to the working class?
Nothing much, except, you know, she is working class.
Pretty well expresses my feelings about this election.
The problem with that kind of result is it will mean years of silly buggery and stalemate, which is ultimately terrible for the country in the longer run. Just look how nothing has got done for 2+ years (and don't mean just Brexit). What happens if everything grinds to a halt. Now that stops the more extreme bollocks, but literally nothing gets sorted. No more money for the NHS, no extra police, nothing.
Well perhaps one of the two main parties may eventually decide to attract some centrists and win a proper majority rather than picking idiots and idealogues.
Much that I would love a return to all three parties arguing over social issues like gay marriage and minor differences in where / whom to tax / benefit, while all agreeing that a pro business liberal democracy under a capitalist system is the superior system, that isn't the choice here. And if it is very close, Labour certainly aren't going to pivot back to the middle, instead it will be one more heave with the winds of a global recession blowing that will get them into power.
I am a centrist for radical change not tinkering. We can make radical improvements in our education and economy, with the environment at the forefront of those changes.
If the parties keep choosing extremists and or incompetents and we keep getting stalemates, no-one should have sympathy for party fanboys moaning that we get nothing sorted.
My theory is that the Remain seats in the south are dropping like flies and Johnson is failing to make enough progress in the North.
I think it’s going to be a night of near misses and a Hung Parliament.
My prediction is:
Tories: 310 Labour: 260
If I get chance, I will add functionality to my system to add new tabs that split by these regions / chart them....to see what the swings look like in those regions.
For those that are interested (trying not to spam). All things been well, all of this should be automatically updating itself on the night. It isn't designed to be a necessarily a "real time" results services, more how well is YouGov MRP actually doing, are the Tories really winning in the right areas, etc, and if so what the result will be. Thus, people can bet accordingly.
absolute bollox, it helps london and southeast as usual
We need another N/S mainline. The existing lines are at capacity. In fact it’s worse than that, because the existing lines have to share both local commuter traffic & long distance traffic.
With HS2 in place, the long distance traffic can move to HS2 and now you can triple the number of slower commuter trains on the existing lines. It’s a win-win for everyone.
Oh, plus we’ll be able to do proper maintenance at the weekends by closing big chunks of one of the lines if necessary, moving long distance traffic to the others. Something that’s not possible at the moment.
I don’t know why the marketing of HS2 has been so woeful. Everybody wins, including the users of existing lines that will never use HS2 in their lives.
Is there a seat we can keep an eye on that will indicate the likelihood of a majority or a Hung Parliament, that will he declared early on?
I think we should get a good idea after the first 100 seats if YouGov MRP is accurate, if the Tories are under / over performing it. From that, we should be able to project forward.
If only somebody would have a system that would do that in real time...
Exactly, there is no bell weather seat this election, but how close the early declarations are to the YouGov is one signal we can use.
Would it be possible to back project the 2017 YouGov to Decleration time chart you have produce for this year.
That way we could see what happened last time, for as we know YouGov got almost 50 seats wrong, if there we evenly distributed that doesn't affect much but if it was all in the first 100 then that would change what we thought was happening.
Corbyn at best will have a wafer thin majority to deliver 2nd ref with a GE to follow straight after. None of his policies will have time to be implemented, we will increase spending, just like we would in the Tories and decide again in autumn 2020. .
Corbo is going to have the SNP and LD control rods moderating him and preventing him from going full Чорнобиль.
Probably true but "let's put him in power, we can control him and his movement", where have we heard that before?
Indeed ... i can't believe Remainers (who are supposed to be the brainy ones, so we're told) would risk Corbyn in order to block Brexit but apparently they are going to (again). Once the Marxists get a hold of power they don't let go (see Labour Leadership elections for the most recent example). They only need to be lucky once.
Ironically the more "unelectable" Corbyn and his cronies appear to be the more likely the are to be elected (either because people think the chance is low so their anti-Tory vote is safe or becuase they think he can be controlled once in Government).
At this stage all we can do is trust that the great British public hasn't lost its collective marbles.
That is stupid scaremongering as you have no evidence to support that outcome whatsoever. If and it is a big if JC does become PM he will not have a majority and will only be able to pass a budget that keeps the finances flowing with funding for more nurses doctors and police officers. The only laws he could pass would be in relation to the referendum and I seriously doubt he would get to renegotiate the deal. He would then be no confidenced and an election would take place after the referendum.
Is there a seat we can keep an eye on that will indicate the likelihood of a majority or a Hung Parliament, that will he declared early on?
I think we should get a good idea after the first 100 seats if YouGov MRP is accurate, if the Tories are under / over performing it. From that, we should be able to project forward.
If only somebody would have a system that would do that in real time...
Exactly, there is no bell weather seat this election, but how close the early declarations are to the YouGov is one signal we can use.
Would it be possible to back project the 2017 YouGov to Decleration time chart you have produce for this year.
That way we could see what happened last time, for as we know YouGov got almost 50 seats wrong, if there we evenly distributed that doesn't affect much but if it was all in the first 100 then that would change what we thought was happening.
I definitely could, but I don't know if I will have time today.
My theory is that the Remain seats in the south are dropping like flies and Johnson is failing to make enough progress in the North.
I think it’s going to be a night of near misses and a Hung Parliament.
My prediction is:
Tories: 310 Labour: 260
That would require Tory seats to drop below the bottom range of the MRP. Last time they were actually at the 74% mark between the bottom (0%) and top (100%) of the range in the final MRP.
I would also like to take this opportunity to be the first to wish you the absolute worst of luck with your predictions.
Corbyn at best will have a wafer thin majority to deliver 2nd ref with a GE to follow straight after. None of his policies will have time to be implemented, we will increase spending, just like we would in the Tories and decide again in autumn 2020. .
Corbo is going to have the SNP and LD control rods moderating him and preventing him from going full Чорнобиль.
Unfortunately it doesn't quite work like that. Once you get appointed prime minister you have access to the nuclear codes regardless of whether you're heading a majority, minority or coalition government.
Corbyn won't use them. It's not relevant. We'd be like Germany.
absolute bollox, it helps london and southeast as usual
We need another N/S mainline. The existing lines are at capacity. In fact it’s worse than that, because the existing lines have to share both local commuter traffic & long distance traffic.
With HS2 in place, the long distance traffic can move to HS2 and now you can triple the number of slower commuter trains on the existing lines. It’s a win-win for everyone.
Oh, plus we’ll be able to do proper maintenance at the weekends by closing big chunks of one of the lines if necessary, moving long distance traffic to the others. Something that’s not possible at the moment.
I don’t know why the marketing of HS2 has been so woeful. Everybody wins, including the users of existing lines that will never use HS2 in their lives.
HS2 was woeful from day 1 as they talked about speed and never talked about the capacity issues.
At least HS3 has the obvious piece that Leeds to Manchester is a painful journey that should take half the time it does due to Geography...
Corbyn at best will have a wafer thin majority to deliver 2nd ref with a GE to follow straight after. None of his policies will have time to be implemented, we will increase spending, just like we would in the Tories and decide again in autumn 2020. .
Corbo is going to have the SNP and LD control rods moderating him and preventing him from going full Чорнобиль.
Unfortunately it doesn't quite work like that. Once you get appointed prime minister you have access to the nuclear codes regardless of whether you're heading a majority, minority or coalition government.
My theory is that the Remain seats in the south are dropping like flies and Johnson is failing to make enough progress in the North.
I think it’s going to be a night of near misses and a Hung Parliament.
My prediction is:
Tories: 310 Labour: 260
That would require Tory seats to drop below the bottom range of the MRP. Last time they were actually at the 74% mark between the bottom (0%) and top (100%) of the range in the final MRP.
I would also like to take this opportunity to be the first to wish you the absolute worst of luck with your predictions.
Well if I’m wrong I’m wrong. Hope I am right.
315 or less seems to be the end of Johnson, so they can gain a few more seats and still be done.
Again the Tories have let Labour set the agenda and done very little to pull apart a lot of policies, just saying Commie e.g. Rent Caps, sound great, but are a terrible idea. There is loads of evidence of about this, including a Freakonomics episode.
Osborne was great at this for the Tories and before that New Labour. A new idea would be floated by the opposition and by tea time it would have had attacked.
The Tories might not be too worried by the MRP from last night because it means their voters won't be complacent. If it had said 68 majority again that might have been a problem for the party.
Yes it is good news for us getting supporters to Chingford to knock up
Chingford is so close on the MRP that it's going to be the destination of choice for a big slice of the London Labour Party.
Definitely time for another Portillo moment.
Dr Phil Hammond, who lives in NE Somerset, has wanted to stand against and defeat Mogg for ~3 years. He'd probably stand as an Independent. A pity that no party agreed with him ...
This problem of split anti-Tory votes at a crucial election works all ways. In Stroud, the Green candidate Molly Scott-Cato has annoyed people by standing in a marginal seat with a pro-EU Labour MP. She's already got a very well-paid job as an (excellent) MEP.
Molly Scott Cato is also possibly the most flaky candidate in the GE, even including Lord Buckethead. I am aware of her academic background but that does not excuse articles such as that from The Ecologist in 2009; https://theecologist.org/2009/sep/15/what-would-green-health-system-look.
Dr Phil Hammond in his stand-up comedy is much more impressive than Molly Scott-Cato on what's wrong with the NHS. I'd rather have him design a 'green' healthcare system.
Indeed, her background is 100% economics. Mine's science. The general population wouldn't know what the scientific method was if it bit them. It's very common for people to be good speakers and politicians who wouldn't have a clue what I was on about if I asked for a controlled double blind experiment.
I gather that the only scientist in the Commons was the former LD MP for Cambridge. He left in 2017.
Corbyn at best will have a wafer thin majority to deliver 2nd ref with a GE to follow straight after. None of his policies will have time to be implemented, we will increase spending, just like we would in the Tories and decide again in autumn 2020. .
Corbo is going to have the SNP and LD control rods moderating him and preventing him from going full Чорнобиль.
Probably true but "let's put him in power, we can control him and his movement", where have we heard that before?
He would have full control of our military and security apparatus from Day One as well.
I wouldn’t want him in charge of that for 9 hours, let alone 9 months.
Is there a seat we can keep an eye on that will indicate the likelihood of a majority or a Hung Parliament, that will he declared early on?
I think we should get a good idea after the first 100 seats if YouGov MRP is accurate, if the Tories are under / over performing it. From that, we should be able to project forward.
If only somebody would have a system that would do that in real time...
Exactly, there is no bell weather seat this election, but how close the early declarations are to the YouGov is one signal we can use.
Would it be possible to back project the 2017 YouGov to Decleration time chart you have produce for this year.
That way we could see what happened last time, for as we know YouGov got almost 50 seats wrong, if there we evenly distributed that doesn't affect much but if it was all in the first 100 then that would change what we thought was happening.
I definitely could, but I don't know if I will have time today.
Lol, that's been my reaction to a lot of data viz I've had the idea to do this election! I know the pain.
The real killer is cleaning up the data when source A and source B have used different constituency names.
Corbyn at best will have a wafer thin majority to deliver 2nd ref with a GE to follow straight after. None of his policies will have time to be implemented, we will increase spending, just like we would in the Tories and decide again in autumn 2020. .
Corbo is going to have the SNP and LD control rods moderating him and preventing him from going full Чорнобиль.
Unfortunately it doesn't quite work like that. Once you get appointed prime minister you have access to the nuclear codes regardless of whether you're heading a majority, minority or coalition government.
Is the "moderate" position to unleash our nuclear arsenal at the earliest opportunity?
Imagine a Corbyn government. Unemployment up. Tax intake and investment down. Benefit payments sky rocket. Economy death spiral. How much money will they have for our beloved NHS?
One thing is clear: the NHS will be even worse off under Corbyn because their fiscal plans will lead to a debt crisis for the UK, take us to the edge of bankruptcy and then require drastic cuts to get bailout funding.
Realistically a Corbyn government that we might get this time around will last about 6-9 months and have broadly the same spending injection as the Tories are promising.
Talk of us getting bankrupt in that timescale is absurd hyperbole. Yes ongoing unfettered Corbyn would lead us to that, but the choice is between 5 years of Johnson or less than a year of moderated Corbyn.
I think that’s wishful thinking.
A wise man once said people decide on emotion rather than logic. I put it to you that your dislike of Corbyn is blinding you from the logic and practicalities of how a hung parliament would play out in reality.
Corbyn, with the help of the SNP, would pass the budget he wants. As long as they get indyref2 they couldn’t care less.
I don’t see that as being particularly fantastical.
The chance of Labour & SNP having enough votes to win a VONC on their own is sub 3%. The vast majority of times we have a coalition it will play out much closer to the scenario I described.
A Corbyn Government (and the Tories out) becomes credible on anything more than 270 seats for him. The SNP, we can safely say, will have at least 40.
That gives that Faustian pact 310 and only a handful short of an effective majority.
Corbyn at best will have a wafer thin majority to deliver 2nd ref with a GE to follow straight after. None of his policies will have time to be implemented, we will increase spending, just like we would in the Tories and decide again in autumn 2020. .
Corbo is going to have the SNP and LD control rods moderating him and preventing him from going full Чорнобиль.
Unfortunately it doesn't quite work like that. Once you get appointed prime minister you have access to the nuclear codes regardless of whether you're heading a majority, minority or coalition government.
Yes and what will he do? He can tell the sub commanders to not retaliate but he will be gone in nine months or have a democratic majority are we going to have a nuclear war in the next nine months?
Spain, Italy & Portugal did not control their own currency. The UK does. It’s a crucial difference, because holders of UK gilts know that they will always get paid back, even if it’s in inflated £.
Holders of € bonds issued by those countries were in a completely different position - the potential for default was much higher, so the interest rates rose accordingly in a death spiral that was only cut off when the € central bank announced that they were going to print come what may.
Because the UK controls our own currency, we can never enter this “coffin corner” - yes, gilt rates may rise in response to inflationary concerns, but they’ll never rise as consequence of default risk, which was what drove the € bond crisis.
The bond markets will grip Labour by the throat almost instantly.
The ability to 'print' your own currency is not a solution to the problem of financing government spending...it IS the problem.
We don't even need to search particularly hard for examples of what will happen to the £.
McDonnell has even admitted as much!
If the bond markets expect inflation, then you can expect an up-tick in gilt rates, sure. But you can’t use comparisons with what happened in southern Europe to fear monger, because that was a response to a completely different problem: near term default risk.
There is never going to be any near term default risk in gilts, so we’re never going to be in the position southern Europe was.
Callaghan. 17% gilt rate.
Actual interest rates will do our economy a world of good, remove a lot of zombie businesses and actually reveal the truth about the UK economy.
I suspect what would be revealed won't be pleasant.
“Vote for me! We’ll fuck the economy but at least we’ll find out how truly fucked we can be.”
Is there a seat we can keep an eye on that will indicate the likelihood of a majority or a Hung Parliament, that will he declared early on?
I think we should get a good idea after the first 100 seats if YouGov MRP is accurate, if the Tories are under / over performing it. From that, we should be able to project forward.
If only somebody would have a system that would do that in real time...
Exactly, there is no bell weather seat this election, but how close the early declarations are to the YouGov is one signal we can use.
Would it be possible to back project the 2017 YouGov to Decleration time chart you have produce for this year.
That way we could see what happened last time, for as we know YouGov got almost 50 seats wrong, if there we evenly distributed that doesn't affect much but if it was all in the first 100 then that would change what we thought was happening.
I definitely could, but I don't know if I will have time today.
Lol, that's been my reaction to a lot of data viz I've had the idea to do this election! I know the pain.
The real killer is cleaning up the data when source A and source B have used different constituency names.
Aberdeen West & Kincardine Aberdeen West and Kincardine Kincardine and West Aberdeen Kincardine & Aberdeen West West Aberdeen and Kincardine West Aberdeen & Kincardine
The Tories might not be too worried by the MRP from last night because it means their voters won't be complacent. If it had said 68 majority again that might have been a problem for the party.
Yes it is good news for us getting supporters to Chingford to knock up
Please save your breath. Why on earth would you want the odious IDS back in parliament? The young girl that is the Labour candidate is PhD Oxford and has a great backstory. One for the future. IDS is a depressing throwback.
She is a Momentum backed hard left fanatic, IDS a good local MP who will get Brexit done
And what makes a PhD from oxford somebody who can relate to the working class?
Nothing much, except, you know, she is working class.
I am a working class lad with a DPhil from Oxford - at post grad level most students are from overseas or "non-traditional" backgrounds - I never had any public school poshos in any of my research groups while there.
Corbyn at best will have a wafer thin majority to deliver 2nd ref with a GE to follow straight after. None of his policies will have time to be implemented, we will increase spending, just like we would in the Tories and decide again in autumn 2020. .
Corbo is going to have the SNP and LD control rods moderating him and preventing him from going full Чорнобиль.
Probably true but "let's put him in power, we can control him and his movement", where have we heard that before?
He would have full control of our military and security apparatus from Day One as well.
I wouldn’t want him in charge of that for 9 hours, let alone 9 months.
I always seem to post to closed threads so re-posting these words of wisdom.
Like the last election there has been no detailed examination of Labour's manifesto on TV or much of the media.
To pick two barmy policies that would be deeply unpopular if understood properly: 1. 10% share appropriation. This is a corker and is taken apart here https://capx.co/the-10-share-policy-that-would-decimate-corporate-britain/ 2. The policy to "upgrade almost all of the UK’s 27 million homes to the highest energy-efficiency standards" which I understand has been explained as forcing homeowners to pay for work on their properties under a government controlled scheme. The costs of the enforced payments or loans supposedly covered by energy savings. What could possibly go wrong?
Every paragraph of the long manifesto is stuffed with half-baked schemes or ideological nonsense.
It is a point of principle for me not to vote Labour under current leadership because of antisemitism and support for terrorists and Islamo-fascist movements but I can't understand why Corbyn and McDonald get such a free ride on economics!
I put that down to history repeating itself.
Generation Gullible, when left sitting on a patch of scorched earth where our economy used to be, will - perhaps - understand at that point.
Again the Tories have let Labour set the agenda and done very little to pull apart a lot of policies, just saying Commie e.g. Rent Caps, sound great, but are a terrible idea. There is loads of evidence of about this, including a Freakonomics episode.
Osborne was great at this for the Tories and before that New Labour. A new idea would be floated by the opposition and by tea time it would have had attacked.
To play devil's advocate, the Tories may have been worried about attacking Corbyn and Labour too hard on this sort of thing because it might have fired up Labour leavers to vote Labour rather than abstain or even vote Tory. Perhaps this might have helped with Tory/Lib Dem undecideds but I get the feeling the Tories have played a low risk game and are essentially hoping that they do just enough to get home.
Is there a seat we can keep an eye on that will indicate the likelihood of a majority or a Hung Parliament, that will he declared early on?
I think we should get a good idea after the first 100 seats if YouGov MRP is accurate, if the Tories are under / over performing it. From that, we should be able to project forward.
If only somebody would have a system that would do that in real time...
Exactly, there is no bell weather seat this election, but how close the early declarations are to the YouGov is one signal we can use.
Would it be possible to back project the 2017 YouGov to Decleration time chart you have produce for this year.
That way we could see what happened last time, for as we know YouGov got almost 50 seats wrong, if there we evenly distributed that doesn't affect much but if it was all in the first 100 then that would change what we thought was happening.
I definitely could, but I don't know if I will have time today.
Lol, that's been my reaction to a lot of data viz I've had the idea to do this election! I know the pain.
The real killer is cleaning up the data when source A and source B have used different constituency names.
Aberdeen West & Kincardine Aberdeen West and Kincardine Kincardine and West Aberdeen Kincardine & Aberdeen West West Aberdeen and Kincardine West Aberdeen & Kincardine
Luckily lots of people now put the ons_id codes in as well. So you can match via those.
> I've been looking at Yougov's individual constituency data and this is how close things are. According to Yougov's prediction the Tories can afford to drop a further 17 seats and maintain their majority. They are two points ahead in exactly 17 seats (competing with Labour in 11, LDs in 2 and SNP in 4).
> If Yougov have underestimated the Tory lead then Johnson will have a comfortable majority but if they have overestimated it by just a fraction we're into hung parliament territory.
In 2015 the Tories had a golden opportunity to show that conservative economics worked and delivered both individual liberty and good public services for both the well off and the struggling. Instead they wasted it all on their Brexit obsession.
I can't see how they will be able to repeat the Cameron detoxification again.
Corbyn at best will have a wafer thin majority to deliver 2nd ref with a GE to follow straight after. None of his policies will have time to be implemented, we will increase spending, just like we would in the Tories and decide again in autumn 2020. .
Corbo is going to have the SNP and LD control rods moderating him and preventing him from going full Чорнобиль.
Probably true but "let's put him in power, we can control him and his movement", where have we heard that before?
He would have full control of our military and security apparatus from Day One as well.
I wouldn’t want him in charge of that for 9 hours, let alone 9 months.
What are you worried he might do specifically?
Introduce mandatory TU recognition to the armed forces?
Having said that, at least then McLuskey would insist on a decent level of military spend. Might be for the best, militarily speaking.
> I've been looking at Yougov's individual constituency data and this is how close things are. According to Yougov's prediction the Tories can afford to drop a further 17 seats and maintain their majority. They are two points ahead in exactly 17 seats (competing with Labour in 11, LDs in 2 and SNP in 4).
> If Yougov have underestimated the Tory lead then Johnson will have a comfortable majority but if they have overestimated it by just a fraction we're into hung parliament territory.
It’s going down to the wire.
Wouldn't they have to drop by more than a fraction? Two points, in fact.
I always seem to post to closed threads so re-posting these words of wisdom.
Like the last election there has been no detailed examination of Labour's manifesto on TV or much of the media.
To pick two barmy policies that would be deeply unpopular if understood properly: 1. 10% share appropriation. This is a corker and is taken apart here https://capx.co/the-10-share-policy-that-would-decimate-corporate-britain/ 2. The policy to "upgrade almost all of the UK’s 27 million homes to the highest energy-efficiency standards" which I understand has been explained as forcing homeowners to pay for work on their properties under a government controlled scheme. The costs of the enforced payments or loans supposedly covered by energy savings. What could possibly go wrong?
Every paragraph of the long manifesto is stuffed with half-baked schemes or ideological nonsense.
It is a point of principle for me not to vote Labour under current leadership because of antisemitism and support for terrorists and Islamo-fascist movements but I can't understand why Corbyn and McDonald get such a free ride on economics!
I put that down to history repeating itself.
Generation Gullible, when left sitting on a patch of scorched earth where our economy used to be, will - perhaps - understand at that point.
All those items can be pulled apart but could they be pulled apart in both a way that people could understand and see why it's a bad idea.
Yes share appropriation is bad but how do you argue that workers shouldn't have a share of the profits - which is what that argument would come down to.
'Who has the obsession?' is a fair point to raise. My perception is that Stop the War and the general tone around the world of student politics (eg waving a Palestinian flag on marches as a literal virtue-signal) is one-eyed and obsessed with the faults of the Israeli state way beyond its relative sinfulness with its neighbours (a bunch of dreadful governments by and large).
Why is the left so one-eyed? Partly, a natural rebellion against Western consensus which can be seen as free-thinking, but also there has been a nasty stain of anti-semitism in socialist and pan-arabist politics which Corbyn et al refuse to recognise and thus they are rightly being kicked, kicked some more, and kicked again on this subject.
I kind of agree with this. But there's also a failure to recognise that there is an attempt to conflate any criticism of Israel with anti-semitism, and we're getting to the point where resisting this conflation results in being "kicked". It's a crap situation all round. The only way out for Labour is to not give anyone the benefit of the doubt, and tell people if they don't stop "banging on about Israel" (which is hardly a priority issue for many voters) they're out, at least until perceptions that Labour has become anti-semite friendly have changed. Meanwhile, keeping a policy of not selling arms to countries that bomb civilians seems reasonable and appropriate, and doesn't directly target Israel.
I also think the Conservatives are given a LOT more leeway with their racism, but it doesn't help Labour to complain about this, they need to be seen as having zero-tolerance.
Perhaps what the Tories should have done to nullify Corbyn’s NHS lies was to reach out and suggest a cross party group would make all policy decisions and reforms to the NHS. Labour would look like they were playing party politics if they turned down the offer and could not simultaneously argue it was under threat from the Tories but refuse to get involved.
> I've been looking at Yougov's individual constituency data and this is how close things are. According to Yougov's prediction the Tories can afford to drop a further 17 seats and maintain their majority. They are two points ahead in exactly 17 seats (competing with Labour in 11, LDs in 2 and SNP in 4).
> If Yougov have underestimated the Tory lead then Johnson will have a comfortable majority but if they have overestimated it by just a fraction we're into hung parliament territory.
It’s going down to the wire.
Wouldn't they have to drop by more than a fraction? Two points, in fact.
> I've been looking at Yougov's individual constituency data and this is how close things are. According to Yougov's prediction the Tories can afford to drop a further 17 seats and maintain their majority. They are two points ahead in exactly 17 seats (competing with Labour in 11, LDs in 2 and SNP in 4).
> If Yougov have underestimated the Tory lead then Johnson will have a comfortable majority but if they have overestimated it by just a fraction we're into hung parliament territory.
It’s going down to the wire.
Wouldn't they have to drop by more than a fraction? Two points, in fact.
Corbyn at best will have a wafer thin majority to deliver 2nd ref with a GE to follow straight after. None of his policies will have time to be implemented, we will increase spending, just like we would in the Tories and decide again in autumn 2020. .
Corbo is going to have the SNP and LD control rods moderating him and preventing him from going full Чорнобиль.
Probably true but "let's put him in power, we can control him and his movement", where have we heard that before?
He would have full control of our military and security apparatus from Day One as well.
I wouldn’t want him in charge of that for 9 hours, let alone 9 months.
You seem to be coping with Trump having authority over half the world's nuclear arsenal. Amazingly, the US has not nuked anyone yet
> I've been looking at Yougov's individual constituency data and this is how close things are. According to Yougov's prediction the Tories can afford to drop a further 17 seats and maintain their majority. They are two points ahead in exactly 17 seats (competing with Labour in 11, LDs in 2 and SNP in 4).
> If Yougov have underestimated the Tory lead then Johnson will have a comfortable majority but if they have overestimated it by just a fraction we're into hung parliament territory.
It’s going down to the wire.
Wouldn't they have to drop by more than a fraction? Two points, in fact.
Interestingly the Daily Mail website headline is Boris hiding in a Fridge...
Just what I was going to post this very minute. Have they suddenly gone off message ? This is the first time I've not seen them campainging ardently for Johnson for a month in their main headline.
Johnson hiding in a Fridge is front page material no matter the news paper.
The Guardian Front page had the bloody bulldozer going through the polystyrenen blocks as their image this morning before the fridge.
There are some visuals/stories that papers are always going to run.
And yet the Mail has studiously avoided other Johnson screw-ups before and during the campaign for a long time now - and it's had some of its fiercest and most virulent campaigning I've ever seen from it over the last few weeks. There may be something up with this choice of headline and this particular time.
Hoping for a hung parliament and therefore a proper hard no-deal Brexit in January?
Yup, in one key regards this is 2017 all over again.
2017 SHOULD have been the Brexit election. But May didn't have a Brexit plan to talk about so the election was about everything apart from Brexit.
2019 SHOULD have been the Brexit election. But Boris doesn't want to talk about his plan because he knows it shows him to be a liar and a fraud. Farage absolutely screwed up both the lead into the election and the start of the election campaign and so we haven't talked about Brexit. The election is about everything apart from Brexit.
Perhaps what the Tories should have done to nullify Corbyn’s NHS lies was to reach out and suggest a cross party group would make all policy decisions and reforms to the NHS. Labour would look like they were playing party politics if they turned down the offer and could not simultaneously argue it was under threat from the Tories but refuse to get involved.
Every would have seen through that "reach out" as an even bigger lie.
Corbyn at best will have a wafer thin majority to deliver 2nd ref with a GE to follow straight after. None of his policies will have time to be implemented, we will increase spending, just like we would in the Tories and decide again in autumn 2020. .
Corbo is going to have the SNP and LD control rods moderating him and preventing him from going full Чорнобиль.
Probably true but "let's put him in power, we can control him and his movement", where have we heard that before?
He would have full control of our military and security apparatus from Day One as well.
I wouldn’t want him in charge of that for 9 hours, let alone 9 months.
What are you worried he might do specifically?
Frustrate the ability of our security services to thwart terrorist plots or espionage threats by failing to promptly act on intelligence tip-offs, failing to deploy defensive assets in response to Russian aggression, mothballing, grounding or cannibalising large parts of the armed forces for mixed ideological/financial reasons, failing to cooperate or pass on critical information onto NATO allies, and refusing to take COBR decisions to deal with imminent threats to public safety unless they accord with his ideology.
There is precedent for this. Look how he and has backroom team “helped” Remain during the 2016 EURef campaign, despite what the official stance was.
I know I posted this last night, but I think worth showing again. According to MRP, the first 200 declarations the Tories need to be neck and neck with Labour, before they are forecast to pull away at about 3am. So if the Tories are ahead by then, it should be looking good for them for a majority.
This chart will be updated live on the night, with predicted replaced by actual results, so should get a real time running of the updated outcome.
Note, yes I know the totals are slightly off (YouGov data when neck and neck doesn't state a winner, so in about 10 seats I have just given it the Tories for ease at this time).
excellent. just what I need thanks. is this done on last night's MRP?
Perhaps what the Tories should have done to nullify Corbyn’s NHS lies was to reach out and suggest a cross party group would make all policy decisions and reforms to the NHS. Labour would look like they were playing party politics if they turned down the offer and could not simultaneously argue it was under threat from the Tories but refuse to get involved.
Damn, that's actually a brilliant idea. Something for the next election (which is hopefully a long way away)?
I think it’s worse than that. Many MPs (including Tory MPs) are now drones who parrot the party line and aren’t even capable of engaging in a battle of ideas.
Interestingly the Daily Mail website headline is Boris hiding in a Fridge...
Just what I was going to post this very minute. Have they suddenly gone off message ? This is the first time I've not seen them campainging ardently for Johnson for a month in their main headline.
Johnson hiding in a Fridge is front page material no matter the news paper.
The Guardian Front page had the bloody bulldozer going through the polystyrenen blocks as their image this morning before the fridge.
There are some visuals/stories that papers are always going to run.
And yet the Mail has studiously avoided other Johnson screw-ups before and during the campaign for a long time now - and it's had some of its fiercest and most virulent campaigning I've ever seen from it over the last few weeks. There may be something up with this choice of headline and this particular time.
Hoping for a hung parliament and therefore a proper hard no-deal Brexit in January?
Nope - it's too embarrassing to be ignored and Piers is (well was) a Daily Mail Columnist.
It's also likely to lead the ITV news tonight so can't be avoided.
I know I posted this last night, but I think worth showing again. According to MRP, the first 200 declarations the Tories need to be neck and neck with Labour, before they are forecast to pull away at about 3am. So if the Tories are ahead by then, it should be looking good for them for a majority.
This chart will be updated live on the night, with predicted replaced by actual results, so should get a real time running of the updated outcome.
Note, yes I know the totals are slightly off (YouGov data when neck and neck doesn't state a winner, so in about 10 seats I have just given it the Tories for ease at this time).
excellent. just what I need thanks. is this done on last night's MRP?
'Who has the obsession?' is a fair point to raise. My perception is that Stop the War and the general tone around the world of student politics (eg waving a Palestinian flag on marches as a literal virtue-signal) is one-eyed and obsessed with the faults of the Israeli state way beyond its relative sinfulness with its neighbours (a bunch of dreadful governments by and large).
Why is the left so one-eyed? Partly, a natural rebellion against Western consensus which can be seen as free-thinking, but also there has been a nasty stain of anti-semitism in socialist and pan-arabist politics which Corbyn et al refuse to recognise and thus they are rightly being kicked, kicked some more, and kicked again on this subject.
I kind of agree with this. But there's also a failure to recognise that there is an attempt to conflate any criticism of Israel with anti-semitism, and we're getting to the point where resisting this conflation results in being "kicked". It's a crap situation all round. The only way out for Labour is to not give anyone the benefit of the doubt, and tell people if they don't stop "banging on about Israel" (which is hardly a priority issue for many voters) they're out, at least until perceptions that Labour has become anti-semite friendly have changed. Meanwhile, keeping a policy of not selling arms to countries that bomb civilians seems reasonable and appropriate, and doesn't directly target Israel.
I also think the Conservatives are given a LOT more leeway with their racism, but it doesn't help Labour to complain about this, they need to be seen as having zero-tolerance.
Your post says it all really. You appear to be attempting to say that perceptions about anti-Semitism in the Labour Party are just perceptions and it is really about being anti-Israel, and, "oh, we are no worse than the dastardly Tories".
That really isn't it. There is significant genuine anti-Semitism in the Labour Party since the hard left have infiltrated it. It is NOT just a hatred of the state of Israel, it is a hatred of Jews and their association with global capitalism. The infamous mural that Jeremy Corbyn originally had no problem with illustrates this prejudice and Corbyn's comment about "they" not understanding British irony. Trying to pretend "we are no worse than the Tories" does not let the Labour Party and its leader off the hook.
Yup, in one key regards this is 2017 all over again.
2017 SHOULD have been the Brexit election. But May didn't have a Brexit plan to talk about so the election was about everything apart from Brexit.
2019 SHOULD have been the Brexit election. But Boris doesn't want to talk about his plan because he knows it shows him to be a liar and a fraud. Farage absolutely screwed up both the lead into the election and the start of the election campaign and so we haven't talked about Brexit. The election is about everything apart from Brexit.
It does and it doesn’t. The Tories have made the same mistakes yet this time the Labour campaign has failed, the doorstep conversations seem worse, the debates worse and the Rallies are short on numbers. Corbyn looks 2 years older and the public seem 2 years less enthused. For the Tory mistakes that may well be the difference between a hung parliament and a Tory majority this time.
Perhaps what the Tories should have done to nullify Corbyn’s NHS lies was to reach out and suggest a cross party group would make all policy decisions and reforms to the NHS. Labour would look like they were playing party politics if they turned down the offer and could not simultaneously argue it was under threat from the Tories but refuse to get involved.
Damn, that's actually a brilliant idea. Something for the next election (which is hopefully a long way away)?
My theory is that the Remain seats in the south are dropping like flies and Johnson is failing to make enough progress in the North.
I think it’s going to be a night of near misses and a Hung Parliament.
My prediction is:
Tories: 310 Labour: 260
That would require Tory seats to drop below the bottom range of the MRP. Last time they were actually at the 74% mark between the bottom (0%) and top (100%) of the range in the final MRP.
I would also like to take this opportunity to be the first to wish you the absolute worst of luck with your predictions.
Predictions plural being the key word here. I'm sure that if you predict often enough and with enough variation you might just get one of them right. It's genius.
'Who has the obsession?' is a fair point to raise. My perception is that Stop the War and the general tone around the world of student politics (eg waving a Palestinian flag on marches as a literal virtue-signal) is one-eyed and obsessed with the faults of the Israeli state way beyond its relative sinfulness with its neighbours (a bunch of dreadful governments by and large).
Why is the left so one-eyed? Partly, a natural rebellion against Western consensus which can be seen as free-thinking, but also there has been a nasty stain of anti-semitism in socialist and pan-arabist politics which Corbyn et al refuse to recognise and thus they are rightly being kicked, kicked some more, and kicked again on this subject.
I kind of agree with this. But there's also a failure to recognise that there is an attempt to conflate any criticism of Israel with anti-semitism, and we're getting to the point where resisting this conflation results in being "kicked". It's a crap situation all round. The only way out for Labour is to not give anyone the benefit of the doubt, and tell people if they don't stop "banging on about Israel" (which is hardly a priority issue for many voters) they're out, at least until perceptions that Labour has become anti-semite friendly have changed. Meanwhile, keeping a policy of not selling arms to countries that bomb civilians seems reasonable and appropriate, and doesn't directly target Israel.
I also think the Conservatives are given a LOT more leeway with their racism, but it doesn't help Labour to complain about this, they need to be seen as having zero-tolerance.
Agreed, we have the right to call out Israel's mistreatment of Palistine and Paelsinians without being called antisemitic. I am equally critical of terrorists who attack Israel and Israelis in the name of Palestine.
I also agree that there are too many on the left who bring out the Palistinian flag when a protest has nothing to do with Palestine or Israel.
Interestingly the Daily Mail website headline is Boris hiding in a Fridge...
Just what I was going to post this very minute. Have they suddenly gone off message ? This is the first time I've not seen them campainging ardently for Johnson for a month in their main headline.
Johnson hiding in a Fridge is front page material no matter the news paper.
The Guardian Front page had the bloody bulldozer going through the polystyrenen blocks as their image this morning before the fridge.
There are some visuals/stories that papers are always going to run.
And yet the Mail has studiously avoided other Johnson screw-ups before and during the campaign for a long time now - and it's had some of its fiercest and most virulent campaigning I've ever seen from it over the last few weeks. There may be something up with this choice of headline and this particular time.
Hoping for a hung parliament and therefore a proper hard no-deal Brexit in January?
Nope - it's too embarrassing to be ignored and Piers is (well was) a Daily Mail Columnist.
It's also likely to lead the ITV news tonight so can't be avoided.
It's interesting to see how mild the labour equivalent story below is..
'Who has the obsession?' is a fair point to raise. My perception is that Stop the War and the general tone around the world of student politics (eg waving a Palestinian flag on marches as a literal virtue-signal) is one-eyed and obsessed with the faults of the Israeli state way beyond its relative sinfulness with its neighbours (a bunch of dreadful governments by and large).
Why is the left so one-eyed? Partly, a natural rebellion against Western consensus which can be seen as free-thinking, but also there has been a nasty stain of anti-semitism in socialist and pan-arabist politics which Corbyn et al refuse to recognise and thus they are rightly being kicked, kicked some more, and kicked again on this subject.
I kind of agree with this. But there's also a failure to recognise that there is an attempt to conflate any criticism of Israel with anti-semitism, and we're getting to the point where resisting this conflation results in being "kicked". It's a crap situation all round. The only way out for Labour is to not give anyone the benefit of the doubt, and tell people if they don't stop "banging on about Israel" (which is hardly a priority issue for many voters) they're out, at least until perceptions that Labour has become anti-semite friendly have changed. Meanwhile, keeping a policy of not selling arms to countries that bomb civilians seems reasonable and appropriate, and doesn't directly target Israel.
I also think the Conservatives are given a LOT more leeway with their racism, but it doesn't help Labour to complain about this, they need to be seen as having zero-tolerance.
Thanks for responding thoughtfully. I think you are right about what Labour should do tactically...seems little sign of it under Corbyn. And I have a residual frustration that there is no real attempt to listen and learn from the far left; it is much easier to blame complaints as 'smears' rather than thinking hard.
On the Conservatives and racism, you are arguably right they are given more slack (for a whole host of reasons) but you are even more right that Labour complaining doesn't help Labour solve their problem.
You seem to be coping with Trump having authority over half the world's nuclear arsenal. Amazingly, the US has not nuked anyone yet
I can't work out if they are concerned that Corbyn will nuke somewhere or won't nuke somewhere.
The Shadow SecDef seems actually seems to have an interest in the welfare of those serving rather than making grandiloquent announcements about the names of vessels to be launched 20 years hence.
I know I posted this last night, but I think worth showing again. According to MRP, the first 200 declarations the Tories need to be neck and neck with Labour, before they are forecast to pull away at about 3am. So if the Tories are ahead by then, it should be looking good for them for a majority.
This chart will be updated live on the night, with predicted replaced by actual results, so should get a real time running of the updated outcome.
Note, yes I know the totals are slightly off (YouGov data when neck and neck doesn't state a winner, so in about 10 seats I have just given it the Tories for ease at this time).
excellent. just what I need thanks. is this done on last night's MRP?
Yup, in one key regards this is 2017 all over again.
2017 SHOULD have been the Brexit election. But May didn't have a Brexit plan to talk about so the election was about everything apart from Brexit.
2019 SHOULD have been the Brexit election. But Boris doesn't want to talk about his plan because he knows it shows him to be a liar and a fraud. Farage absolutely screwed up both the lead into the election and the start of the election campaign and so we haven't talked about Brexit. The election is about everything apart from Brexit.
I think this has been more of a Brexit election than 2017, for leave voters anyway. Not for remain voters though, which is unfortunate for the Lib Dems.
Comments
And Boris could well be throwing it away..
And we will end up repeatedly doing it until there is a parliamentary majority for a Brexit resolution.
One thing i'm sure of is that the Tories won't walk back in to the FTPA trap of being in government but not in power with the opposition blocking the exits.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16BjKMutz0rNyU7jqyH-S0VTcYPwhp-fGD5z73s-5YoA
Southern Europe’s problem was near term default risk. Gilt holders will always get £ back. They might be worth less due to inflation, but you’ll still get them back. € bond holders were worried about getting /nothing/. That’s an edge case that can never apply to gilts because we can in fact print if necessary.
Ironically, the ability to print if absolutely necessary prevents gilt rates from rising out of control during a crisis.
The Tories vote has held up despite his favourability going down but they should be concerned that his numbers are falling at the wrong time .
What do you think will happen to inflation when Labour resort to printing to finance government spending?
If only somebody would have a system that would do that in real time...
https://spacewatch.global/2019/11/uk-conservative-party-election-pledge-well-set-up-a-uk-space-command/
I think it’s going to be a night of near misses and a Hung Parliament.
My prediction is:
Tories: 310
Labour: 260
If the parties keep choosing extremists and or incompetents and we keep getting stalemates, no-one should have sympathy for party fanboys moaning that we get nothing sorted.
https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1204706925281251328?s=20
With HS2 in place, the long distance traffic can move to HS2 and now you can triple the number of slower commuter trains on the existing lines. It’s a win-win for everyone.
Oh, plus we’ll be able to do proper maintenance at the weekends by closing big chunks of one of the lines if necessary, moving long distance traffic to the others. Something that’s not possible at the moment.
I don’t know why the marketing of HS2 has been so woeful. Everybody wins, including the users of existing lines that will never use HS2 in their lives.
(Especially if they want to secretly record them).
Would it be possible to back project the 2017 YouGov to Decleration time chart you have produce for this year.
That way we could see what happened last time, for as we know YouGov got almost 50 seats wrong, if there we evenly distributed that doesn't affect much but if it was all in the first 100 then that would change what we thought was happening.
https://election.pressassociation.com/general-election/estimated-declaration-times-by-time/
I would also like to take this opportunity to be the first to wish you the absolute worst of luck with your predictions.
At least HS3 has the obvious piece that Leeds to Manchester is a painful journey that should take half the time it does due to Geography...
315 or less seems to be the end of Johnson, so they can gain a few more seats and still be done.
https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1204709457273466880
https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1204710649890258946
Again the Tories have let Labour set the agenda and done very little to pull apart a lot of policies, just saying Commie e.g. Rent Caps, sound great, but are a terrible idea. There is loads of evidence of about this, including a Freakonomics episode.
Osborne was great at this for the Tories and before that New Labour. A new idea would be floated by the opposition and by tea time it would have had attacked.
I wouldn’t want him in charge of that for 9 hours, let alone 9 months.
The real killer is cleaning up the data when source A and source B have used different constituency names.
That gives that Faustian pact 310 and only a handful short of an effective majority.
Mark me down as unconvinced on the 3% odds.
Aberdeen West and Kincardine
Kincardine and West Aberdeen
Kincardine & Aberdeen West
West Aberdeen and Kincardine
West Aberdeen & Kincardine
Generation Gullible, when left sitting on a patch of scorched earth where our economy used to be, will - perhaps - understand at that point.
> I've been looking at Yougov's individual constituency data and this is how close things are. According to Yougov's prediction the Tories can afford to drop a further 17 seats and maintain their majority. They are two points ahead in exactly 17 seats (competing with Labour in 11, LDs in 2 and SNP in 4).
> If Yougov have underestimated the Tory lead then Johnson will have a comfortable majority but if they have overestimated it by just a fraction we're into hung parliament territory.
It’s going down to the wire.
https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1204710649890258946?s=20
In 2015 the Tories had a golden opportunity to show that conservative economics worked and delivered both individual liberty and good public services for both the well off and the struggling. Instead they wasted it all on their Brexit obsession.
I can't see how they will be able to repeat the Cameron detoxification again.
Having said that, at least then McLuskey would insist on a decent level of military spend. Might be for the best, militarily speaking.
Yes share appropriation is bad but how do you argue that workers shouldn't have a share of the profits - which is what that argument would come down to.
I also think the Conservatives are given a LOT more leeway with their racism, but it doesn't help Labour to complain about this, they need to be seen as having zero-tolerance.
2017 SHOULD have been the Brexit election. But May didn't have a Brexit plan to talk about so the election was about everything apart from Brexit.
2019 SHOULD have been the Brexit election. But Boris doesn't want to talk about his plan because he knows it shows him to be a liar and a fraud. Farage absolutely screwed up both the lead into the election and the start of the election campaign and so we haven't talked about Brexit. The election is about everything apart from Brexit.
There is precedent for this. Look how he and has backroom team “helped” Remain during the 2016 EURef campaign, despite what the official stance was.
I think it’s worse than that. Many MPs (including Tory MPs) are now drones who parrot the party line and aren’t even capable of engaging in a battle of ideas.
It's also likely to lead the ITV news tonight so can't be avoided.
That really isn't it. There is significant genuine anti-Semitism in the Labour Party since the hard left have infiltrated it. It is NOT just a hatred of the state of Israel, it is a hatred of Jews and their association with global capitalism. The infamous mural that Jeremy Corbyn originally had no problem with illustrates this prejudice and Corbyn's comment about "they" not understanding British irony. Trying to pretend "we are no worse than the Tories" does not let the Labour Party and its leader off the hook.
Rallies are short on numbers. Corbyn looks 2 years older and the public seem 2 years less enthused. For the Tory mistakes that may well be the difference between a hung parliament and a Tory majority this time.
I also agree that there are too many on the left who bring out the Palistinian flag when a protest has nothing to do with Palestine or Israel.
On the Conservatives and racism, you are arguably right they are given more slack (for a whole host of reasons) but you are even more right that Labour complaining doesn't help Labour solve their problem.
The Shadow SecDef seems actually seems to have an interest in the welfare of those serving rather than making grandiloquent announcements about the names of vessels to be launched 20 years hence.