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  • kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Is anyone still undecided as to who to vote for tomorrow?

    I mean, I think I’m now voting Labour but I could wobble in the voting booth.
    What? With a vote magnet like Boris as the alternative.
    How anyone who has complained (alot) about the economic drawbacks of Brexit, which worst case scenario is predicted to make us 'grow less', can vote to put Corbyn in power, is beyond me. Nothing to do with antisemitism, which I deplore, it's what they have confirmed they would do to the economy. It's not even like it's in any way hidden beneath a mask of bland Blairism. Nobody could vote for that unless out of revenge on the country, which is sad.
    You guys are happy to inflict a ‘no deal’ Brexit in revenge so no sympathy from me I’m afraid.

    You only have yourselves to blame.
    Let's not rehearse the Brexit argument again. Your own answer tells me (and you) all you need to know. Thankfully, there are many more people who will be voting with the country's best interest at heart, and you will have a lot of cause to be grateful to them in the coming years.
    Keep telling yourself that if it makes you feel better.
    Corbyn really needs to ask himself why he comes across so badly between elections. It's not the media, he gets plenty of bad press during an election.
    Because he's an utterly shit MP and Leader of the Opposition?

    Great campaigner though. When he doesn't seem like he's just had a stroke.
    Yes but look: he doesn't. That is what I was getting at. Corbyn in the last couple of days has suddenly looked younger and fitter. Look at his face, or even just the angle of his glasses.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Did anyone take up my 15/4 tip on Claire Wright in East Devon? I got on it.

    According to the MRP she is exactly neck-and-neck. I reckon she's going to do it.

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/12/10/key-findings-our-final-mrp-poll

    https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/1204530880728961024?s=20

  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,067
    I am guessing we are due a full range of polls today? Any ETAs on those?
  • eekeek Posts: 28,405

    Foxy said:

    eek said:

    Jeremy Corbyn: has he just recovered from some illness or is he botoxed up to the gills? He suddenly looks ten years younger, or at least two years back to 2017.

    I think he really enjoys campaigning..
    Yes, campaigning is the bit of politics that he most enjoys, and indeed advocacy for constituents down on their luck. It is the stuff in Parliament that he finds less interesting, the opposite to most MPs.
    You make him sound almost appealing, and then one has to remember anti-Semitism, terrorist sympathy and neo-Marxist Venezuelan economics.
    Or the fact Boris is a thrice fired liar with a penchant for promising of saying and promising the first thing that enters his brain which will allow him to escape the question.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,602
    edited December 2019

    Neither Johnson nor Corbyn are fit to be PM. The Tory campaign (and PB Tories here) rightly point to the many disgusting failings of Corbyn and say "DON'T VOTE FOR HIM". And they are right. Corbyn and those close to him are an utter disgrace.

    Then you reverse the perspective. Look at the many disgusting failings of Johnson. Look to a future where being openly lied to is normal, where 1984 style truth become lies and lies become truth. Johnson lying perhaps even to himself about the nature of his "miraculous" deal and what it means for NI. Lying about hospitals. About nurses. About racism in his own party. Johnson and those close to him are an utter disgrace.

    So with respect to some of the shrieking last night from biased people insisting their man is pure as the driven snow look at the failing of the bad guy could I refer you to Matthew 7:5? The notion that EITHER of the front benches should be in office is disgusting. The real mood on the streets is one of resigned revulsion not enthusiasm.

    The best result - like with the EU - is the current result. A massively hung parliament. Labour cannot win any more than a couple of seats from the Tories at best. Their great hope is not to lose seats like Sunderland to the Tories. SO blue pants being shat were trollied in waste - Corbyn won't be PM and nor should he be. At the same time Johnson should not be PM either. If he has to remain so we need to mathematically bind his hands. No majority. No coalition partners. No succour. So if people who can't vote for Corbyn find themselves putting a cross in a Labour box to stop Johnson so what? It isn't a vote to put Jezbollah into office because that cannot happen.

    The LDs had a great opportunity to challenge both main parties at this election and failed to take advantage of it.
  • Oh Jeremy Corbyn! If you listen closely, you can pick out TSE's fine singing voice at the match last night.

    https://twitter.com/LauraPidcockMP/status/1204513648875622400
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,298
    kle4 said:



    Corbyn really needs to ask himself why he comes across so badly between elections. It's not the media, he gets plenty of bad press during an election.

    He also gets some good press during elections because people like his policies. Whereas between elections his press is relentlessly negative.

    More generally, this isn't limited to Corbyn, it's a common problem for Labour leaders. Blair got around it by wooing the Sun and Murdoch. Miliband just didn't have a big enough policy offer to stop people talking about ridiculous confected controversies like bacon sandwiches.

    But Corbyn has shown an alternative route of having a bold policy offer that people like. Combine that boldness with a leader with less baggage and I think/hope we could get a left-wing govt.
  • Andy_JS said:

    The LDs had a great opportunity to challenge both main parties at this election and failed to take advantage of it.

    I expect us to pick up a decent haul of seats as tactical voting monsters the UNS. But I do agree - the road back from the Coalition disaster is long. Look at it the other way - LibDems will do far better than TIG/ex TIG independents...

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,153

    Oh Jeremy Corbyn! If you listen closely, you can pick out TSE's fine singing voice at the match last night.

    https://twitter.com/LauraPidcockMP/status/1204513648875622400

    It's tough being a liverpool fan sometimes.
  • Oh Jeremy Corbyn! If you listen closely, you can pick out TSE's fine singing voice at the match last night.

    https://twitter.com/LauraPidcockMP/status/1204513648875622400

    They were probably singing FFS Jeremy Corbyn!
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,602
    tlg86 said:

    Does anyone have a link to the latest yougov MRP spreadsheet?

    I'm trying to get hold of the data. FrancisU had a sheet last night but it didn't seem to include the SNP and PC unless I was looking in the wrong place.
  • Alistair said:

    I think SLab are seeing a resurgence. They are going to poll 20%+ and that could well dent the SNP just like in 2017.

    I am inspecting constituency bets.

    I concur. Definite signs of SLab recovery. I think they would have held Kirkcaldy even without the SNP handing it to them on a plate. Now looking nervously at several other seats.
  • eek said:

    Foxy said:

    eek said:

    Jeremy Corbyn: has he just recovered from some illness or is he botoxed up to the gills? He suddenly looks ten years younger, or at least two years back to 2017.

    I think he really enjoys campaigning..
    Yes, campaigning is the bit of politics that he most enjoys, and indeed advocacy for constituents down on their luck. It is the stuff in Parliament that he finds less interesting, the opposite to most MPs.
    You make him sound almost appealing, and then one has to remember anti-Semitism, terrorist sympathy and neo-Marxist Venezuelan economics.
    Or the fact Boris is a thrice fired liar with a penchant for promising of saying and promising the first thing that enters his brain which will allow him to escape the question.
    Indeed. I am not a fan of either of the revolting individuals that purport to be appropriate candidates for the most senior position in our highly flawed system of representative democracy.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,038
    Too close for comfort - Bozo in Guiseley this morning turning the milk sour.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413
    eek said:

    eek said:

    Nigelb said:

    eek said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Is anyone still undecided as to who to vote for tomorrow?

    I mean, I think I’m now voting Labour but I could wobble in the voting booth.
    What? With a vote magnet like Boris as the alternative.
    How anyone who has complained (alo, which is sad.
    However, it could be exactly what Corbyn needs to win votes - remember for a lot of people Brexit was a f*** you vote and you've just said a vote for Corbyn is the same...
    Both are f*** the country votes.
    Yes because the have not's aren't doing that well so see little point with the country carrying on as it was.

    And their scream from 3 years ago hasn't solved any of their issues (although being honest nothing anyone could actually do would resolve their issues)..

    As I assume you haven't read the article can I refer you to https://unherd.com/2019/11/stoke-the-city-that-britain-forgot/ which I linked to here 3 weeks back
    the issues wont get solved overnight and nor will all of them get addressed

    what the vote did was stop the direction of travel and force the politicos to reassess what was on their agenda
    Was it and did it? The direction of travel was the UK onthe outskirts of the EU whilst retaining a say versus trying to get outside the EU with a grade A mess.

    Granted it wasn't sold like that but that was the reality even before the referendum.

    And it's been 3 years which means there has been enough time for these things to be resolved.

    Cummings was also hoping that his campaign of Get Brexit done would win the Tories a lot votes from people that don't usually vote (and so don't show up on in polls). What happens if they have successfully get those people out voting and they go for the f*** the establishment Corbyn option.
    3 years means nothing this is a generational shift, we.re due one. All we are seeing is the death throes of the old order and as yet there new one hasn't emerged. The vote, as pointed out , was not just about the EU. The EU - unfairly - took the rap for a general discontent which politicans had been ignoring. Most of the discontent is on home grown issues which our politicans could have addressed but didn't. The EU ref was used as a chance to kick them in the nadgers to get their attention. It certainly did that.

  • Alistair said:

    I think SLab are seeing a resurgence. They are going to poll 20%+ and that could well dent the SNP just like in 2017.

    I am inspecting constituency bets.

    I concur. Definite signs of SLab recovery. I think they would have held Kirkcaldy even without the SNP handing it to them on a plate. Now looking nervously at several other seats.
    But why are they recovering? I don’t get it
  • Not backing it because I followed a tip (Dr. Foxy, I think) at 38, but Betfair has Leicester at 15.5 for the title. Might be worth a look.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,721
    edited December 2019

    Foxy said:

    eek said:

    Jeremy Corbyn: has he just recovered from some illness or is he botoxed up to the gills? He suddenly looks ten years younger, or at least two years back to 2017.

    I think he really enjoys campaigning..
    Yes, campaigning is the bit of politics that he most enjoys, and indeed advocacy for constituents down on their luck. It is the stuff in Parliament that he finds less interesting, the opposite to most MPs.
    You make him sound almost appealing, and then one has to remember anti-Semitism, terrorist sympathy and neo-Marxist Venezuelan economics.
    I seem to be a bit unusual, in that I am fairly neutral on Corbyn. I think his economics are bonkers and his obsession with Israel and Palestine repulsive, but he is genuinely compassionate and his humble personal eccentricities with jam and allotment a charming English eccentricity.

    I suppose that I recognise the essential duality of man in him, and that conflict between the devil and the angel.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,405



    3 years means nothing this is a generational shift, we.re due one. All we are seeing is the death throes of the old order and as yet there new one hasn't emerged. The vote, as pointed out , was not just about the EU. The EU - unfairly - took the rap for a general discontent which politicans had been ignoring. Most of the discontent is on home grown issues which our politicans could have addressed but didn't. The EU ref was used as a chance to kick them in the nadgers to get their attention. It certainly did that.

    And it's possible that tomorrow those same people (the one Cummings was hoping to use to win this election) may come out and vote.

    If they do who do you think they will vote for - I suspect it won't be Boris after this campaign..
  • kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Is anyone still undecided as to who to vote for tomorrow?

    I mean, I think I’m now voting Labour but I could wobble in the voting booth.
    What? With a vote magnet like Boris as the alternative.
    How anyone who has complained (alot) about the economic drawbacks of Brexit, which worst case scenario is predicted to make us 'grow less', can vote to put Corbyn in power, is beyond me. Nothing to do with antisemitism, which I deplore, it's what they have confirmed they would do to the economy. It's not even like it's in any way hidden beneath a mask of bland Blairism. Nobody could vote for that unless out of revenge on the country, which is sad.
    You guys are happy to inflict a ‘no deal’ Brexit in revenge so no sympathy from me I’m afraid.

    You only have yourselves to blame.
    Let's not rehearse the Brexit argument again. Your own answer tells me (and you) all you need to know. Thankfully, there are many more people who will be voting with the country's best interest at heart, and you will have a lot of cause to be grateful to them in the coming years.
    Keep telling yourself that if it makes you feel better.
    Corbyn really needs to ask himself why he comes across so badly between elections. It's not the media, he gets plenty of bad press during an election.
    Because he's an utterly shit MP and Leader of the Opposition?

    Great campaigner though. When he doesn't seem like he's just had a stroke.
    Yes but look: he doesn't. That is what I was getting at. Corbyn in the last couple of days has suddenly looked younger and fitter. Look at his face, or even just the angle of his glasses.
    Lol. If I had never seen your previous posts I would have thought you were being ironic. The man is a complete fuckwit. If the lying toad, aka Boris Johnson, gets a majority it is Mr. Thicky's fault, along with his cabal of Marxist dinosaurs. Labour is a basket case because of Corbyn. The quicker it ditches him and returns to sensible centre left politics the better for all of us of all political hues.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868

    Oh Jeremy Corbyn! If you listen closely, you can pick out TSE's fine singing voice at the match last night.

    https://twitter.com/LauraPidcockMP/status/1204513648875622400

    Who was it tipping Salzburg?
  • eekeek Posts: 28,405

    Too close for comfort - Bozo in Guiseley this morning turning the milk sour.

    I'm struggling to see what seat (even those nearby) this is a campaign stop for. Any ideas or are is the Tory high command far more scared than their supporters on here are.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149
    edited December 2019
    Bad poll for Buttigieg as he falls to 3rd in Iowa and for Warren as she falls to 4th.

    Great poll for Biden as he moves back to top and good poll for Sanders too as he moves to 2nd place just 1% off the lead in the early caucus state. Encouraging gains for Klobuchar fans too
  • rkrkrk said:

    kle4 said:



    Corbyn really needs to ask himself why he comes across so badly between elections. It's not the media, he gets plenty of bad press during an election.

    He also gets some good press during elections because people like his policies. Whereas between elections his press is relentlessly negative.

    More generally, this isn't limited to Corbyn, it's a common problem for Labour leaders. Blair got around it by wooing the Sun and Murdoch. Miliband just didn't have a big enough policy offer to stop people talking about ridiculous confected controversies like bacon sandwiches.

    But Corbyn has shown an alternative route of having a bold policy offer that people like. Combine that boldness with a leader with less baggage and I think/hope we could get a left-wing govt.
    That's the latest spin for the extreme left is it? Replace the hopeless Jeremy and try and convince the voter that Venezuelan socialism would work in the UK with one more heave? You are kidding yourself.
  • murali_s said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Is anyone still undecided as to who to vote for tomorrow?

    Still not sure but firming up to be Lib Dems even though Jo Swinson is truly a terrible leader. Uncle Vince would have been so much better (and that's saying something!)

    Priority is to get the flip-flopping hapless Stephen Hammond kicked out of Wimbledon. Word on the ground here is that it's still relatively close but a split Labour / LibDem vote would allow Hammond to survive (sadly).
    Inexact science but I do lot of work in that constituency and my numbers put Labour slightly ahead of the Lib Dems in Wimbledon, assuming the current rate of switchers continues today.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,721

    Not backing it because I followed a tip (Dr. Foxy, I think) at 38, but Betfair has Leicester at 15.5 for the title. Might be worth a look.

    I think it likely to be a trading bet. Liverpool would have to lose 3 games while Leicester keep winning.

    There is only one other team in that title race though, and Liverpool have a very busy season. If Mane starts misfiring like Salah it could get interesting indeed.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413
    eek said:



    3 years means nothing this is a generational shift, we.re due one. All we are seeing is the death throes of the old order and as yet there new one hasn't emerged. The vote, as pointed out , was not just about the EU. The EU - unfairly - took the rap for a general discontent which politicans had been ignoring. Most of the discontent is on home grown issues which our politicans could have addressed but didn't. The EU ref was used as a chance to kick them in the nadgers to get their attention. It certainly did that.

    And it's possible that tomorrow those same people (the one Cummings was hoping to use to win this election) may come out and vote.

    If they do who do you think they will vote for - I suspect it won't be Boris after this campaign..

    I remember the halcyon days when higher voter turnout was deemed a good thing, but when the sods wont vote the way you want them to parties are less keen on it.

    The good thing about the political implosion of Brexit has been it has shaken up fixed loyalties and tribal voting. It is of course still there and remains hard to shift in places but the gradual decline of fixed votes can only be a positive. Parties must now cast their nets wider and put some effort in to winning a mandate.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149

    Alistair said:

    I think SLab are seeing a resurgence. They are going to poll 20%+ and that could well dent the SNP just like in 2017.

    I am inspecting constituency bets.

    I concur. Definite signs of SLab recovery. I think they would have held Kirkcaldy even without the SNP handing it to them on a plate. Now looking nervously at several other seats.
    But why are they recovering? I don’t get it
    SNP voters going Labour as the national picture is Labour v Tory and Unionist tactical voting, if I lived in a Labour v SNP marginal even I would vote Labour
  • Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    eek said:

    Jeremy Corbyn: has he just recovered from some illness or is he botoxed up to the gills? He suddenly looks ten years younger, or at least two years back to 2017.

    I think he really enjoys campaigning..
    Yes, campaigning is the bit of politics that he most enjoys, and indeed advocacy for constituents down on their luck. It is the stuff in Parliament that he finds less interesting, the opposite to most MPs.
    You make him sound almost appealing, and then one has to remember anti-Semitism, terrorist sympathy and neo-Marxist Venezuelan economics.
    I seem to be a bit unusual, in that I am fairly neutral on Corbyn. I think his economics are bonkers and his obsession with Israel and Palestine repulsive, but he is genuinely compassionate and his humble personal eccentricities with jam and allotment a charming English eccentricity.

    I suppose that I recognise the essential duality of man in him, and that conflict between the devil and the angel.
    Well that is a positive analysis and it is probably a credit to you, as most people have some redeeming features if one is good enough to look for them. I don't think that makes them all people good though. There have been many very evil people who have still loved children and animals. Doesn't stop them being bad or dangerous.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868

    murali_s said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Is anyone still undecided as to who to vote for tomorrow?

    Still not sure but firming up to be Lib Dems even though Jo Swinson is truly a terrible leader. Uncle Vince would have been so much better (and that's saying something!)

    Priority is to get the flip-flopping hapless Stephen Hammond kicked out of Wimbledon. Word on the ground here is that it's still relatively close but a split Labour / LibDem vote would allow Hammond to survive (sadly).
    Inexact science but I do lot of work in that constituency and my numbers put Labour slightly ahead of the Lib Dems in Wimbledon, assuming the current rate of switchers continues today.
    The MRP puts the LibDems significantly ahead of Labour in Wimbledon. It is based on polling up to yesterday morning, and by its own admission is less likely to pick up the effect of localised campaigns, and hence if anything handicaps the LibDems (whereas Labour's support will be mapped in from lots of other seats by the demographic model).

    The anti-Tory vote in Wimbledon is clearly LibDem.
  • eek said:

    eek said:

    Nigelb said:

    eek said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Is anyone still undecided as to who to vote for tomorrow?

    I mean, I think I’m now voting Labour but I could wobble in the voting booth.
    What? With a vote magnet like Boris as the alternative.
    How anyone who has complained (alo, which is sad.
    However, it could be exactly what Corbyn needs to win votes - remember for a lot of people Brexit was a f*** you vote and you've just said a vote for Corbyn is the same...
    Both are f*** the country votes.
    Yes because the have not's aren't doing that well so see little point with the country carrying on as it was.

    And their scream from 3 years ago hasn't solved any of their issues (although being honest nothing anyone could actually do would resolve their issues)..

    As I assume you haven't read the article can I refer you to https://unherd.com/2019/11/stoke-the-city-that-britain-forgot/ which I linked to here 3 weeks back
    the issues wont get solved overnight and nor will all of them get addressed

    what the vote did was stop the direction of travel and force the politicos to reassess what was on their agenda
    Was it and did it? The direction of travel was the UK onthe outskirts of the EU whilst retaining a say versus trying to get outside the EU with a grade A mess.

    Granted it wasn't sold like that but that was the reality even before the referendum.

    And it's been 3 years which means there has been enough time for these things to be resolved.

    Cummings was also hoping that his campaign of Get Brexit done would win the Tories a lot votes from people that don't usually vote (and so don't show up on in polls). What happens if they have successfully get those people out voting and they go for the f*** the establishment Corbyn option.
    3 years means nothing this is a generational shift, we.re due one. All we are seeing is the death throes of the old order and as yet there new one hasn't emerged. The vote, as pointed out , was not just about the EU. The EU - unfairly - took the rap for a general discontent which politicans had been ignoring. Most of the discontent is on home grown issues which our politicans could have addressed but didn't. The EU ref was used as a chance to kick them in the nadgers to get their attention. It certainly did that.

    Have you kidnapped the real Alanbrooke?

  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,298

    rkrkrk said:

    kle4 said:



    Corbyn really needs to ask himself why he comes across so badly between elections. It's not the media, he gets plenty of bad press during an election.

    He also gets some good press during elections because people like his policies. Whereas between elections his press is relentlessly negative.

    More generally, this isn't limited to Corbyn, it's a common problem for Labour leaders. Blair got around it by wooing the Sun and Murdoch. Miliband just didn't have a big enough policy offer to stop people talking about ridiculous confected controversies like bacon sandwiches.

    But Corbyn has shown an alternative route of having a bold policy offer that people like. Combine that boldness with a leader with less baggage and I think/hope we could get a left-wing govt.
    That's the latest spin for the extreme left is it? Replace the hopeless Jeremy and try and convince the voter that Venezuelan socialism would work in the UK with one more heave? You are kidding yourself.
    The policies are more like European or Scandinavian if you ask me. But we don't need to convince voters, they already like the idea of nationalizing utilities.

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2017/05/19/nationalisation-vs-privatisation-public-view
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149

    I reflected overnight on the election result that the country deserves (as opposed to what it will get) and concluded that it would look something like:

    Con 310
    Lab 251
    SNP 45
    Lib Dems 20
    DUP 8
    Sinn Fein 6
    Plaid Cymru 4
    Alliance 2
    SDLP 2
    Green 1
    Speaker 1

    Not that any of the politicians are anywhere near competent enough to deal with such a result.

    I could live with that if it meant the back of Corbyn-which it should, but might not.

    That result would be seen inside Labour as a huge win for Corbyn.

    Yep, making it much more likely he stays and the far Left continues its chokehold on the party.

    But if Johnson cannot put him away, who can? A hung Parliament - or even a close Tory win - would strongly suggest that post-Corbyn a far-left Labour Party genuinely has a chance to win. The Tories really need to deliver for the left-behind areas that are likely to lend them their votes.

    Corbyn Labour is still 100 seats behind the Tories after 9 years of Tory rule, Labour can get to 35% under Corbyn but not the more than 40% it needs to win
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413

    eek said:

    eek said:

    Nigelb said:

    eek said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Is anyone still undecided as to who to vote for tomorrow?

    I mean, I think I’m now voting Labour but I could wobble in the voting booth.
    What? With a vote magnet like Boris as the alternative.
    How anyone who has complained (alo, which is sad.
    However, it could be exactly what Corbyn needs to win votes - remember for a lot of people Brexit was a f*** you vote and you've just said a vote for Corbyn is the same...
    Both are f*** the country votes.
    Yes because the have not's aren't doing that well so see little point with the country carrying on as it was.

    And their scream from 3 years ago hasn't solved any of their issues (although being honest nothing anyone could actually do would resolve their issues)..

    As I assume you haven't read the article can I refer you to https://unherd.com/2019/11/stoke-the-city-that-britain-forgot/ which I linked to here 3 weeks back
    the issues wont get solved overnight and nor will all of them get addressed

    what the vote did was stop the direction of travel and force the politicos to reassess what was on their agenda
    Was it and did it? The direction of travel was the UK onthe outskirts of the EU whilst retaining a say versus trying to get outside the EU with a grade A mess.

    Granted it wasn't sold like that but that was the reality even before the referendum.

    And it's been 3 years which means there has been enough time for these things to be resolved.

    Cummings was also hoping that his campaign of Get Brexit done would win the Tories a lot votes from people that don't usually vote (and so don't show up on in polls). What happens if they have successfully get those people out voting and they go for the f*** the establishment Corbyn option.
    3 years means nothing this is a generational shift, we.re due one. All we are seeing is the death throes of the old order and as yet there new one hasn't emerged. The vote, as pointed out , was not just about the EU. The EU - unfairly - took the rap for a general discontent which politicans had been ignoring. Most of the discontent is on home grown issues which our politicans could have addressed but didn't. The EU ref was used as a chance to kick them in the nadgers to get their attention. It certainly did that.

    Have you kidnapped the real Alanbrooke?

    Yes, and unless you cough up Ill give him back :-)
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868

    eek said:

    eek said:

    Nigelb said:

    eek said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Is anyone still undecided as to who to vote for tomorrow?

    I me booth.
    What? With a vote magnet like Boris as the alternative.
    How anyone who has complained (alo, which is sad.
    However, it could be exactly what Corbyn needs to win votes - remember for a lot of people Brexit was a f*** you vote and you've just said a vote for Corbyn is the same...
    Both are f*** the country votes.
    Yes because the have not's aren't doing that well so see little point with the country carrying on as it was.

    And their screa't read the article can I refer you to https://unherd.com/2019/11/stoke-the-city-that-britain-forgot/ which I linked to here 3 weeks back
    the issues wont get solved overnight and nor will all of them get addressed

    what the vote did was stop the direction of travel and force the politicos to reassess what was on their agenda
    Was it and did it? The direction of travel was the UK onthe outskirts of the EU whilst retaining a say versus trying to get outside the EU with a grade A mess.

    Granted it wasn't sold like that but that was the reality even before the referendum.

    And it's been 3 years which means there has been enough time for these things to be resolved.

    Cummings was also hoping that his campaign of Get Brexit done would win the Tories a lot votes from people that don't usually vote (and so don't show up on in polls). What happens if they have successfully get those people out voting and they go for the f*** the establishment Corbyn option.
    3 years means nothing this is a generational shift, we.re due one. All we are seeing is the death throes of the old order and as yet there new one hasn't emerged. The vote, as pointed out , was not just about the EU. The EU - unfairly - took the rap for a general discontent which politicans had been ignoring. Most of the discontent is on home grown issues which our politicans could have addressed but didn't. The EU ref was used as a chance to kick them in the nadgers to get their attention. It certainly did that.

    Have you kidnapped the real Alanbrooke?

    Yes, and unless you cough up Ill give him back :-)
    It is certainly novel to see a Brexit voted through by a load of pensioners against the wishes of a majority of younger voters described as a generational shift.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,602
    The Tories might not be too worried by the MRP from last night because it means their voters won't be complacent. If it had said 68 majority again that might have been a problem for the party.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    nunu2 said:
    So I take it you’re not happy !

    Johnson and his photo ops are beginning to look pathetic . Topped off by that tragic stunt yesterday .
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149

    May I wish you good fortune, Harold. Best thing I ever did was resign from a job I wasn't enjoying, with no idea what I would do next.

    Another piece of advice I got (and I appreciate not everyone can do this) is to try and build up at least six months of “fuck off money” in your bank account. And never touch it.

    This is probably about 12-15k for most people, and it liberates you (from stress too) as you can freely say “fuck off” at any time to a job you hate whilst knowing you can cover all your bills and expenses for up to 6 months whilst you find that other new job.

    Fuck off money. It’s great.
    You get 6 months contributions based JSA anyway regardless of savings provided you have made enough NI contributions
  • DavidL said:

    Private Eye couldn’t better it.
    All is vanity seems to fit quite well for Boris.
    It is from Ecclesiastes. Vanity, Vanity, all is Vanity. It's a beautiful passage.
    I am no longer religious but I love Ecclesiastes ch 3, for everything there is a season. I find it genuinely profound. https://www.biblehub.com/bsb/ecclesiastes/3.htm

    Its certainly the best book in the Old Testament, arguably the best in the whole bible.
    Me too. And the Byrds song. Suggests a rather philosophical angle from Boris. :) Albeit not a very accessible answer.
    Boris is also calling back to Mrs Thatcher, who used that verse to condemn Conservative Grandees.
  • The Tories are very lucky this week didn’t happen last week.

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/breaking-boris-johnson-hides-fridge-21070803

  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,038
    eek said:

    Too close for comfort - Bozo in Guiseley this morning turning the milk sour.

    I'm struggling to see what seat (even those nearby) this is a campaign stop for. Any ideas or are is the Tory high command far more scared than their supporters on here are.
    Maybe he's going to sweep through Shipley and Keighley, then on into Lancashire?
  • HYUFD said:

    I reflected overnight on the election result that the country deserves (as opposed to what it will get) and concluded that it would look something like:

    Con 310
    Lab 251
    SNP 45
    Lib Dems 20
    DUP 8
    Sinn Fein 6
    Plaid Cymru 4
    Alliance 2
    SDLP 2
    Green 1
    Speaker 1

    Not that any of the politicians are anywhere near competent enough to deal with such a result.

    I could live with that if it meant the back of Corbyn-which it should, but might not.

    That result would be seen inside Labour as a huge win for Corbyn.

    Yep, making it much more likely he stays and the far Left continues its chokehold on the party.

    But if Johnson cannot put him away, who can? A hung Parliament - or even a close Tory win - would strongly suggest that post-Corbyn a far-left Labour Party genuinely has a chance to win. The Tories really need to deliver for the left-behind areas that are likely to lend them their votes.

    Corbyn Labour is still 100 seats behind the Tories after 9 years of Tory rule, Labour can get to 35% under Corbyn but not the more than 40% it needs to win
    Maybe but are you still confident IDS will retain his seat and that it will not return a hung parliament

    Also the chance of no deal in january must have risen
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,602

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    eek said:

    Jeremy Corbyn: has he just recovered from some illness or is he botoxed up to the gills? He suddenly looks ten years younger, or at least two years back to 2017.

    I think he really enjoys campaigning..
    Yes, campaigning is the bit of politics that he most enjoys, and indeed advocacy for constituents down on their luck. It is the stuff in Parliament that he finds less interesting, the opposite to most MPs.
    You make him sound almost appealing, and then one has to remember anti-Semitism, terrorist sympathy and neo-Marxist Venezuelan economics.
    I seem to be a bit unusual, in that I am fairly neutral on Corbyn. I think his economics are bonkers and his obsession with Israel and Palestine repulsive, but he is genuinely compassionate and his humble personal eccentricities with jam and allotment a charming English eccentricity.

    I suppose that I recognise the essential duality of man in him, and that conflict between the devil and the angel.
    Well that is a positive analysis and it is probably a credit to you, as most people have some redeeming features if one is good enough to look for them. I don't think that makes them all people good though. There have been many very evil people who have still loved children and animals. Doesn't stop them being bad or dangerous.
    What are Johnson's redeeming features?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486

    Speaking of vanity and quotations of a sort, my favourite song title (not the same as the title of my favourite song) is “You’re so vain, you probably think this song is about you”.

    Er, that’s not the song’s title, it’s its opening two lines.

    The song is called You’re So Vain.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    HYUFD said:

    May I wish you good fortune, Harold. Best thing I ever did was resign from a job I wasn't enjoying, with no idea what I would do next.

    Another piece of advice I got (and I appreciate not everyone can do this) is to try and build up at least six months of “fuck off money” in your bank account. And never touch it.

    This is probably about 12-15k for most people, and it liberates you (from stress too) as you can freely say “fuck off” at any time to a job you hate whilst knowing you can cover all your bills and expenses for up to 6 months whilst you find that other new job.

    Fuck off money. It’s great.
    You get 6 months contributions based JSA anyway regardless of savings provided you have made enough NI contributions
    That’s not really much for people with a family and bills to pay
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    eek said:



    3 years means nothing this is a generational shift, we.re due one. All we are seeing is the death throes of the old order and as yet there new one hasn't emerged. The vote, as pointed out , was not just about the EU. The EU - unfairly - took the rap for a general discontent which politicans had been ignoring. Most of the discontent is on home grown issues which our politicans could have addressed but didn't. The EU ref was used as a chance to kick them in the nadgers to get their attention. It certainly did that.

    And it's possible that tomorrow those same people (the one Cummings was hoping to use to win this election) may come out and vote.

    If they do who do you think they will vote for - I suspect it won't be Boris after this campaign..
    WHY WAS HE IN PUDSEY?!?!!? Wtf?! Are they scared they won't even get a majority?
  • nico67 said:

    nunu2 said:
    So I take it you’re not happy !

    Johnson and his photo ops are beginning to look pathetic . Topped off by that tragic stunt yesterday .
    Actually driving through the wall was shared across our social media with lots of laughs
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149
    edited December 2019

    HYUFD said:

    I reflected overnight on the election result that the country deserves (as opposed to what it will get) and concluded that it would look something like:

    Con 310
    Lab 251
    SNP 45
    Lib Dems 20
    DUP 8
    Sinn Fein 6
    Plaid Cymru 4
    Alliance 2
    SDLP 2
    Green 1
    Speaker 1

    Not that any of the politicians are anywhere near competent enough to deal with such a result.

    I could live with that if it meant the back of Corbyn-which it should, but might not.

    That result would be seen inside Labour as a huge win for Corbyn.

    Yep, making it much more likely he stays and the far Left continues its chokehold on the party.

    But if Johnson cannot put him away, who can? A hung Parliament - or even a close Tory win - would strongly suggest that post-Corbyn a far-left Labour Party genuinely has a chance to win. The Tories really need to deliver for the left-behind areas that are likely to lend them their votes.

    Corbyn Labour is still 100 seats behind the Tories after 9 years of Tory rule, Labour can get to 35% under Corbyn but not the more than 40% it needs to win
    Maybe but are you still confident IDS will retain his seat and that it will not return a hung parliament

    Also the chance of no deal in january must have risen
    IDS is still narrowly ahead with Yougov MRP and it will be Tory gains in Labour Leave seats that gives the Tories a majority.

    Of 32 projected Tory gains with last night's Yougov model only 1, Lanark and Hamilton East, is a seat that voted Remain and only 2, Dagenham and Rainham and Eastbourne, are in London or the South.

    Unless the DUP (and the BXP if they get an MP) hold the balance of power again it will not be No Deal, if the Tories get a majority the Boris Deal will pass, if Labour and the SNP, Plaid, the Greens and LDs get a majority it will be EUref2
  • Charles said:

    On resigning club, I’ve already ‘resigned’ from Crossrail (2 weeks ago, as it happens) and am leaving that client after nearly 5.5 years. I may do a day or so a week there next year, but I finish there full time at Christmas.

    I’m working on a new client for 2020, which may amuse some of you when I reveal it but I can’t discuss it yet.

    That means it’s either (a) fixed; or (b) unfixable

    We should be told!

    I’ve just had enough.

    I wouldn’t expect it to open before Christmas 2021.
    Crossrail is a project of national importance and like 90% of the country I don't even understand exactly what it is meant to do except make travelling around London easier. What is the problem ? I ask because by God we need to know for HS2, HS 3/4 and the whole Northern Powerhouse. Do you think the equivalent of your concerns are even being considered re the reassessment of HS2 ?
    The business case for Crossrail is pretty sound. The mission statement is “keeping London moving” and you can see why that’s the case at rush hour, with the extensive queues and closures at Bank, Holborn, Victoria, Canary Wharf and Tottenham Court Road. The tube is at capacity and it’s becoming a choke on growth.

    Crossrail will link the nation’s main airport with the West End (it’s primary retail and tourist zone) with the City and Canary Wharf (it’s primary business and financial districts). It will also make it much easier for commuters in the Thames Valley and Essex to access all those areas.

    The net effect is to allow London to retain its status as a global and European hub, attracting more inward investment, greatly boosting jobs and tax revenue. This will help the Exchequer and the funding of public services.

    Unfortunately, the political optics are poor as it looks like gold-plating London, but the RoR is at least 3:1.

    HS2 is a bit more speculative (and nowhere near as well-run as Crossrail yet) but is a strategic piece of infrastructure aimed at changing the economic geography of the country. The West and East coast main lines are also approaching capacity and it takes an age to get to places like Leeds, and you can’t always find a seat.

    So basically, Crossrail taps into and retains London as a global hub, together with Heathrow expansion, and HS2 taps in the rest of the country into that too and will act as a facilitator for further regional investment projects in the North.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149
    edited December 2019
    Andy_JS said:

    The Tories might not be too worried by the MRP from last night because it means their voters won't be complacent. If it had said 68 majority again that might have been a problem for the party.

    Yes it is good news for us getting supporters to Chingford to knock up
  • IanB2 said:



    On resigning club, I’ve already ‘resigned’ from Crossrail (2 weeks ago, as it happens) and am leaving that client after nearly 5.5 years. I may do a day or so a week there next year, but I finish there full time at Christmas.

    I’m working on a new client for 2020, which may amuse some of you when I reveal it but I can’t discuss it yet.

    Given how far behind and over budget Crossrail is, you're surely just the person for HS2.
    I don’t know if that’s a barb or a compliment but I’m not going near HS2 with how it’s run at the moment.

    I can’t work for a senior leadership team I don’t respect.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,721
    edited December 2019

    nico67 said:

    nunu2 said:
    So I take it you’re not happy !

    Johnson and his photo ops are beginning to look pathetic . Topped off by that tragic stunt yesterday .
    Actually driving through the wall was shared across our social media with lots of laughs
    Yes, but do folk really want a clown as PM, or something more substantial?

    He just hid in a fridge to avoid an interview by breakfast TV.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    edited December 2019
    Foxy said:



    I seem to be a bit unusual, in that I am fairly neutral on Corbyn. I think his economics are bonkers and his obsession with Israel and Palestine repulsive, but he is genuinely compassionate and his humble personal eccentricities with jam and allotment a charming English eccentricity.

    I suppose that I recognise the essential duality of man in him, and that conflict between the devil and the angel.

    I largely agree with that assessment. Similarly, I am fairly neutral on Brexit, which is a mixture of devils and angels.

    In fact, I am happy with any outcome that doesn't deliver a hung Parliament, in which vacuous Meeksian centrists argue for a continuation of failed policies.

    Many have suffered, and don't want to return to the status quo, which is all that the centrists are offering.

    Extremists and populists simply take advantage of the resentment and sense of powerlessness that many now feel. And who created this malaise? Our centrist friends.
  • If we see a 6 pointer or even a 5 pointer or better today, it’s in the bag
  • eekeek Posts: 28,405
    nunu2 said:

    eek said:



    3 years means nothing this is a generational shift, we.re due one. All we are seeing is the death throes of the old order and as yet there new one hasn't emerged. The vote, as pointed out , was not just about the EU. The EU - unfairly - took the rap for a general discontent which politicans had been ignoring. Most of the discontent is on home grown issues which our politicans could have addressed but didn't. The EU ref was used as a chance to kick them in the nadgers to get their attention. It certainly did that.

    And it's possible that tomorrow those same people (the one Cummings was hoping to use to win this election) may come out and vote.

    If they do who do you think they will vote for - I suspect it won't be Boris after this campaign..
    WHY WAS HE IN PUDSEY?!?!!? Wtf?! Are they scared they won't even get a majority?
    That was my question earlier - I can't see any seat in play in that area?

    South of Leeds, yes - North (yes, once you leave Yorkshire) but Pudsey?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    OT anyone else having trouble logging on to PB.com? I am having to use Vanilla as PB.com does not seem to react to me logging on.

    I'd love to get back to my preferred access before tomorrow night's fun and games.

    (Macbook Air, Safari 13.0.4, OSX High Sierra)
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,602
    nunu2 said:

    eek said:



    3 years means nothing this is a generational shift, we.re due one. All we are seeing is the death throes of the old order and as yet there new one hasn't emerged. The vote, as pointed out , was not just about the EU. The EU - unfairly - took the rap for a general discontent which politicans had been ignoring. Most of the discontent is on home grown issues which our politicans could have addressed but didn't. The EU ref was used as a chance to kick them in the nadgers to get their attention. It certainly did that.

    And it's possible that tomorrow those same people (the one Cummings was hoping to use to win this election) may come out and vote.

    If they do who do you think they will vote for - I suspect it won't be Boris after this campaign..
    WHY WAS HE IN PUDSEY?!?!!? Wtf?! Are they scared they won't even get a majority?
    Probably because in 2017 the Tories thought they were going to win Pudsey easily since they were defending a 4,500 vote majority and in the event that was reduced to just 331.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    The most convincing argument for a Tory landslide is the sudden pb consensus that it won't happen
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    nico67 said:

    nunu2 said:
    So I take it you’re not happy !

    Johnson and his photo ops are beginning to look pathetic . Topped off by that tragic stunt yesterday .
    I've been saying the tory campaign has been lacking for weeks now. Even now they are hiding. Literally Boris was hiding in a fridge.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,361
    DavidL said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Is anyone still undecided as to who to vote for tomorrow?

    I mean, I think I’m now voting Labour but I could wobble in the voting booth.
    What? With a vote magnet like Boris as the alternative.
    How anyone who has complained (alot) about the economic drawbacks of Brexit, which worst case scenario is predicted to make us 'grow less', can vote to put Corbyn in power, is beyond me. Nothing to do with antisemitism, which I deplore, it's what they have confirmed they would do to the economy. It's not even like it's in any way hidden beneath a mask of bland Blairism. Nobody could vote for that unless out of revenge on the country, which is sad.
    Agreed. Its self indulgence of the worst kind.

    Its worth considering how Boris would have done against Blair though. I think he would have been annihilated.
    Foot would have probably beaten him
  • Foxy said:

    nico67 said:

    nunu2 said:
    So I take it you’re not happy !

    Johnson and his photo ops are beginning to look pathetic . Topped off by that tragic stunt yesterday .
    Actually driving through the wall was shared across our social media with lots of laughs
    Yes, but do folk really want a clown as PM, or something more substantial?

    He just hid in a fridge to avoid an interview by breakfast TV.
    Probably they do not want either on offer but it has to be one or the other
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The Tories might not be too worried by the MRP from last night because it means their voters won't be complacent. If it had said 68 majority again that might have been a problem for the party.

    Yes it is good news for us getting supporters to Chingford to knock up
    Yes - last night's MRP was obviously the best news for the Conservatives that's happened this millennium (at least).

    But apart from PB Tories, I'm sure the rest of us will be on the lookout for straws in the wind before tomorrow.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413
    edited December 2019
    IanB2 said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    Nigelb said:

    eek said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Is anyone still undecided as to who to vote for tomorrow?

    I me booth.
    What? With a vote magnet like Boris as the alternative.
    How anyone who has complained (alo, which is sad.
    However, it could be exactly what Corbyn needs to win votes - remember for a lot of people Brexit was a f*** you vote and you've just said a vote for Corbyn is the same...
    Both are f*** the country votes.
    Yes because the have not's aren't doing that well so see little point with the country carrying on as it was.

    And their screa't read the article can I refer you to https://unherd.com/2019/11/stoke-the-city-that-britain-forgot/ which I linked to here 3 weeks back
    the issues wont get solved overnig time for these things to be resolved.

    Cummings was also hoping that his campaign of Get Brexit done would win the Tories a lot votes from people that don't usually vote (and so don't show up on in polls). What happens if they have successfully get those people out voting and they go for the f*** the establishment Corbyn option.
    3 years means nothing th

    Have you kidnapped the real Alanbrooke?

    Yes, and unless you cough up Ill give him back :-)
    It is certainly novel to see a Brexit voted through by a load of pensioners against the wishes of a majority of younger voters described as a generational shift.
    The young didn't vote much so it cant be said to be against there wishes otherwise they would have got off their arses and not left the voting to their mums and dads

    As for the penisioner bit, one day youll be old too, sensible societies value wisdom
  • nunu2 said:

    eek said:



    3 years means nothing this is a generational shift, we.re due one. All we are seeing is the death throes of the old order and as yet there new one hasn't emerged. The vote, as pointed out , was not just about the EU. The EU - unfairly - took the rap for a general discontent which politicans had been ignoring. Most of the discontent is on home grown issues which our politicans could have addressed but didn't. The EU ref was used as a chance to kick them in the nadgers to get their attention. It certainly did that.

    And it's possible that tomorrow those same people (the one Cummings was hoping to use to win this election) may come out and vote.

    If they do who do you think they will vote for - I suspect it won't be Boris after this campaign..
    WHY WAS HE IN PUDSEY?!?!!? Wtf?! Are they scared they won't even get a majority?
    All you can conclude is that where CCHQ believes (and they might be wrong as they were in 2017, or right as they were in 2015) the battleground is.

    They might think they already have enough attack seats in the bag, and the main threat is from Labour/LD on the defensive seats.

    Or, more worryingly, that holding onto what they’ve got is the best they can do now and keep their fingers crossed some target seats just naturally fall to them.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    Andy_JS said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    eek said:

    Jeremy Corbyn: has he just recovered from some illness or is he botoxed up to the gills? He suddenly looks ten years younger, or at least two years back to 2017.

    I think he really enjoys campaigning..
    Yes, campaigning is the bit of politics that he most enjoys, and indeed advocacy for constituents down on their luck. It is the stuff in Parliament that he finds less interesting, the opposite to most MPs.
    You make him sound almost appealing, and then one has to remember anti-Semitism, terrorist sympathy and neo-Marxist Venezuelan economics.
    I seem to be a bit unusual, in that I am fairly neutral on Corbyn. I think his economics are bonkers and his obsession with Israel and Palestine repulsive, but he is genuinely compassionate and his humble personal eccentricities with jam and allotment a charming English eccentricity.

    I suppose that I recognise the essential duality of man in him, and that conflict between the devil and the angel.
    Well that is a positive analysis and it is probably a credit to you, as most people have some redeeming features if one is good enough to look for them. I don't think that makes them all people good though. There have been many very evil people who have still loved children and animals. Doesn't stop them being bad or dangerous.
    What are Johnson's redeeming features?
    There was that thing about model buses, wasn't there?
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,729

    The most convincing argument for a Tory landslide is the sudden pb consensus that it won't happen

    what consensus?
  • Speaking of vanity and quotations of a sort, my favourite song title (not the same as the title of my favourite song) is “You’re so vain, you probably think this song is about you”.

    Er, that’s not the song’s title, it’s its opening two lines.

    The song is called You’re So Vain.
    First two lines of the chorus I think. The fist two lines are:

    Son of a gun
    You walked into the party like you were walking onto a yacht.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    The mood swings on PB are one of its many joys :smiley::smile::neutral::disappointed::lol:
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,361

    Charles said:

    On resigning club, I’ve already ‘resigned’ from Crossrail (2 weeks ago, as it happens) and am leaving that client after nearly 5.5 years. I may do a day or so a week there next year, but I finish there full time at Christmas.

    I’m working on a new client for 2020, which may amuse some of you when I reveal it but I can’t discuss it yet.

    That means it’s either (a) fixed; or (b) unfixable

    We should be told!

    I’ve just had enough.

    I wouldn’t expect it to open before Christmas 2021.
    Crossrail is a project of national importance and like 90% of the country I don't even understand exactly what it is meant to do except make travelling around London easier. What is the problem ? I ask because by God we need to know for HS2, HS 3/4 and the whole Northern Powerhouse. Do you think the equivalent of your concerns are even being considered re the reassessment of HS2 ?
    Usual vanity London project , sucking all the investrment from the rest of the country so Londoners get it a bit easier. More over budget than is spent on the rest of the UK.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868

    IanB2 said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    Nigelb said:

    eek said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Is anyone still undecided as to who to vote for tomorrow?

    I me booth.
    What? With a vote magnet like Boris as the alternative.
    How anyone who has complained (alo, which is sad.
    However, it could be exactly what Corbyn needs to win votes - remember for a lot of people Brexit was a f*** you vote and you've just said a vote for Corbyn is the same...
    Both are f*** the country votes.
    Yes because the have not's aren't doing that well so see little point with the country carrying on as it was.

    And their screa't read the article can I refer you to https://unherd.com/2019/11/stoke-the-city-that-britain-forgot/ which I linked to here 3 weeks back
    the issues wont get solved overnig time for these things to be resolved.

    Cummings was also hoping that his campaign of Get Brexit done would win the Tories a lot votes from people that don't usually vote (and so don't show up on in polls). What happens if they have successfully get those people out voting and they go for the f*** the establishment Corbyn option.
    3 years means nothing th

    Have you kidnapped the real Alanbrooke?

    Yes, and unless you cough up Ill give him back :-)
    It is certainly novel to see a Brexit voted through by a load of pensioners against the wishes of a majority of younger voters described as a generational shift.
    The young didn't vote much so it cant be said to be against there wishes otherwise they would have got off their arses and not left the voting to their mums and dads

    As for the penisioner bit, one day youll be old too, sensible societies value wisdom
    Its a simple fact that Brexit was voted through mostly by the old. My issue was with your description.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I reflected overnight on the election result that the country deserves (as opposed to what it will get) and concluded that it would look something like:

    Con 310
    Lab 251
    SNP 45
    Lib Dems 20
    DUP 8
    Sinn Fein 6
    Plaid Cymru 4
    Alliance 2
    SDLP 2
    Green 1
    Speaker 1

    Not that any of the politicians are anywhere near competent enough to deal with such a result.

    I could live with that if it meant the back of Corbyn-which it should, but might not.

    That result would be seen inside Labour as a huge win for Corbyn.

    Yep, making it much more likely he stays and the far Left continues its chokehold on the party.

    But if Johnson cannot put him away, who can? A hung Parliament - or even a close Tory win - would strongly suggest that post-Corbyn a far-left Labour Party genuinely has a chance to win. The Tories really need to deliver for the left-behind areas that are likely to lend them their votes.

    Corbyn Labour is still 100 seats behind the Tories after 9 years of Tory rule, Labour can get to 35% under Corbyn but not the more than 40% it needs to win
    Maybe but are you still confident IDS will retain his seat and that it will not return a hung parliament

    Also the chance of no deal in january must have risen
    IDS is still narrowly ahead with Yougov MRP and it will be Tory gains in Labour Leave seats that gives the Tories a majority.

    Of 32 projected Tory gains with last night's Yougov model only 1, Lanark and Hamilton East, is a seat that voted Remain and only 2, Dagenham and Rainham and Eastbourne, are in London or the South.

    Unless the DUP (and the BXP if they get an MP) hold the balance of power again it will not be No Deal, if the Tories get a majority the Boris Deal will pass, if Labour and the SNP, Plaid, the Greens and LDs get a majority it will be EUref2
    I was ready aware of your final paragraph but a deadlocked HOC has a January deadline to deal with
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,602

    If we see a 6 pointer or even a 5 pointer or better today, it’s in the bag

    It being a HP?
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,167
    edited December 2019
    How many polls due out today, and when ?
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    O.k PB. Competition time. Which will have the higher tory share after the election?

    Wakefield or Pudsey?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,361
    Alistair said:

    I think SLab are seeing a resurgence. They are going to poll 20%+ and that could well dent the SNP just like in 2017.

    I am inspecting constituency bets.

    What could possibly cause it , they get crappier by the day, bereft of leadership and policies. You could only vote for them if you had had a lobotomy.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The Tories might not be too worried by the MRP from last night because it means their voters won't be complacent. If it had said 68 majority again that might have been a problem for the party.

    Yes it is good news for us getting supporters to Chingford to knock up
    Chingford is so close on the MRP that it's going to be the destination of choice for a big slice of the London Labour Party.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    nunu2 said:

    O.k PB. Competition time. Which will have the higher tory share after the election?

    Wakefield or Pudsey?

    Pudsey
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    malcolmg said:

    Charles said:

    On resigning club, I’ve already ‘resigned’ from Crossrail (2 weeks ago, as it happens) and am leaving that client after nearly 5.5 years. I may do a day or so a week there next year, but I finish there full time at Christmas.

    I’m working on a new client for 2020, which may amuse some of you when I reveal it but I can’t discuss it yet.

    That means it’s either (a) fixed; or (b) unfixable

    We should be told!

    I’ve just had enough.

    I wouldn’t expect it to open before Christmas 2021.
    Crossrail is a project of national importance and like 90% of the country I don't even understand exactly what it is meant to do except make travelling around London easier. What is the problem ? I ask because by God we need to know for HS2, HS 3/4 and the whole Northern Powerhouse. Do you think the equivalent of your concerns are even being considered re the reassessment of HS2 ?
    Usual vanity London project , sucking all the investrment from the rest of the country so Londoners get it a bit easier. More over budget than is spent on the rest of the UK.
    It does very much look like that.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,405

    The Tories are very lucky this week didn’t happen last week.

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/breaking-boris-johnson-hides-fridge-21070803

    I'm sure ITV will happily replay it multiple times today.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Alistair said:

    I think SLab are seeing a resurgence. They are going to poll 20%+ and that could well dent the SNP just like in 2017.

    I am inspecting constituency bets.

    I concur. Definite signs of SLab recovery. I think they would have held Kirkcaldy even without the SNP handing it to them on a plate. Now looking nervously at several other seats.
    I think they could now be value in East Lothian.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    Serious (and perhaps quite important) question - the MRP results released last night showed a rather pronounced downward trend in the projected number of Tory seats over the last fortnight, but essentially no trend at all in the projected Tory percentage lead.

    Does anyone understand - or has YouGov made any comment on - how these two findings can be reconciled?
  • If we see a 6 pointer or even a 5 pointer or better today, it’s in the bag

    Nothing is in the bag no matter what the polls say today

    Upto 25% of the vote will already be in, and this election is impossible to call and may well remain so until the early hours of friday morning
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    Nigelb said:

    eek said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Is anyone still undecided as to who to vote for tomorrow?

    I me booth.
    What? With a vote magnet like Boris as the alternative.
    How anyone who has complained (alo, which is sad.
    However, it could be exactly what Corbyn needs to win votes - remember for a lot of people Brexit was a f*** you vote and you've just said a vote for Corbyn is the same...
    Both are f*** the country votes.
    Yes because the have not's aren't doing that well so see little point with the country carrying on as it was.

    And their screa't read the article can I refer you to https://unherd.com/2019/11/stoke-the-city-that-britain-forgot/ which I linked to here 3 weeks back
    the issues wont get solved overnig time for these things to be resolved.

    Cummings was also hoping that his campaign of Get Brexit done would win the Tories a lot votes from people that don't usually vote (and so don't show up on in polls). What happens if they have successfully get those people out voting and they go for the f*** the establishment Corbyn option.
    3 years means nothing th

    Have you kidnapped the real Alanbrooke?

    Yes, and unless you cough up Ill give him back :-)
    It is certainly novel to see a Brexit voted through by a load of pensioners against the wishes of a majority of younger voters described as a generational shift.
    The young didn't vote much so it cant be said to be against there wishes otherwise they would have got off their arses and not left the voting to their mums and dads

    As for the penisioner bit, one day youll be old too, sensible societies value wisdom
    Its a simple fact that Brexit was voted through mostly by the old. My issue was with your description.
    generational shifts happen. 1945 and Attlee, 1979 and Thatcher 1997 and Blair. Zeitgeist if you prefer but it simply means the old consensus has had itrs day.
  • IanB2 said:

    murali_s said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Is anyone still undecided as to who to vote for tomorrow?

    Still not sure but firming up to be Lib Dems even though Jo Swinson is truly a terrible leader. Uncle Vince would have been so much better (and that's saying something!)

    Priority is to get the flip-flopping hapless Stephen Hammond kicked out of Wimbledon. Word on the ground here is that it's still relatively close but a split Labour / LibDem vote would allow Hammond to survive (sadly).
    Inexact science but I do lot of work in that constituency and my numbers put Labour slightly ahead of the Lib Dems in Wimbledon, assuming the current rate of switchers continues today.
    The MRP puts the LibDems significantly ahead of Labour in Wimbledon. It is based on polling up to yesterday morning, and by its own admission is less likely to pick up the effect of localised campaigns, and hence if anything handicaps the LibDems (whereas Labour's support will be mapped in from lots of other seats by the demographic model).

    The anti-Tory vote in Wimbledon is clearly LibDem.
    I think the MRP is wrong. The Lib Dem vote in Wimbledon is mostly coming from 2017 Labour voters and what I am seeing is a decent chunk of those 2017 Lab voters returning - primarily over the last two or three days. Although the Lib Dems are flooding the constituency with literature, they don't have the historic VIs for GOTV that Labour does, and Labour has consistently had more canvassers in Wimbledon than the Conservatives and Lib Dems combined (the local candidate is a Momentum chair so has had a lot of resources funneled to her). Based on the data I have I'd say it's neck and neck right now with Labour pulling slightly ahead.
  • argyllrs said:

    Does anyone think that if the Lib Dems had respected the referendum and we had left the EU, that they would be experiencing a resurgence and massively eating into Labour (and some Con) seats. Instead they could be back down to single figures if they don't win big in home counties/Surrey.

    Yes. Claiming to be the party of radical reform and referenda etc., and switching to be a reactionary one has slightly undermined their USP. Likewise Labour, for that matter. If Corbyn had offered a free vote, while campaigning personally for Leave, what a position he would be in...
  • malcolmg said:

    Charles said:

    On resigning club, I’ve already ‘resigned’ from Crossrail (2 weeks ago, as it happens) and am leaving that client after nearly 5.5 years. I may do a day or so a week there next year, but I finish there full time at Christmas.

    I’m working on a new client for 2020, which may amuse some of you when I reveal it but I can’t discuss it yet.

    That means it’s either (a) fixed; or (b) unfixable

    We should be told!

    I’ve just had enough.

    I wouldn’t expect it to open before Christmas 2021.
    Crossrail is a project of national importance and like 90% of the country I don't even understand exactly what it is meant to do except make travelling around London easier. What is the problem ? I ask because by God we need to know for HS2, HS 3/4 and the whole Northern Powerhouse. Do you think the equivalent of your concerns are even being considered re the reassessment of HS2 ?
    Usual vanity London project , sucking all the investrment from the rest of the country so Londoners get it a bit easier. More over budget than is spent on the rest of the UK.
    It does very much look like that.
    No it isn’t.

    All of that is completely wrong.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751

    If we see a 6 pointer or even a 5 pointer or better today, it’s in the bag

    Nothing is in the bag no matter what the polls say today

    Upto 25% of the vote will already be in, and this election is impossible to call and may well remain so until the early hours of friday morning
    Unless the Exit Poll is close, I think we'll know soon after 10pm tomorrow.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The Tories might not be too worried by the MRP from last night because it means their voters won't be complacent. If it had said 68 majority again that might have been a problem for the party.

    Yes it is good news for us getting supporters to Chingford to knock up
    Chingford is so close on the MRP that it's going to be the destination of choice for a big slice of the London Labour Party.
    Every marginal in near London is going to have more momentum volunteers than residents, regardless of the MRP. They've already been sending volunteers home from canvassing sessions because they can't handle the numbers
  • eekeek Posts: 28,405
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    Nigelb said:

    eek said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Is anyone still undecided as to who to vote for tomorrow?

    I me booth.
    What? With a vote magnet like Boris as the alternative.
    How anyone who has complained (alo, which is sad.
    However, it could be exactly what Corbyn needs to win votes - remember for a lot of people Brexit was a f*** you vote and you've just said a vote for Corbyn is the same...
    Both are f*** the country votes.
    Yes because the have not's aren't doing that well so see little point with the country carrying on as it was.

    And their screa't read the article can I refer you to https://unherd.com/2019/11/stoke-the-city-that-britain-forgot/ which I linked to here 3 weeks back
    the issues wont get solved overnig time for these things to be resolved.

    Cummings was also hoping that his campaign of Get Brexit done would win the Tories a lot votes from people that don't usually vote (and so don't show up on in polls). What happens if they have successfully get those people out voting and they go for the f*** the establishment Corbyn option.
    3 years means nothing th

    Have you kidnapped the real Alanbrooke?

    Yes, and unless you cough up Ill give him back :-)
    It is certainly novel to see a Brexit voted through by a load of pensioners against the wishes of a majority of younger voters described as a generational shift.
    The young didn't vote much so it cant be said to be against there wishes otherwise they would have got off their arses and not left the voting to their mums and dads

    As for the penisioner bit, one day youll be old too, sensible societies value wisdom
    Its a simple fact that Brexit was voted through mostly by the old. My issue was with your description.
    Nope it was voted through by a set of people who don't usually vote.

    2015 - 66.1%
    Referendum - 72%
    2017 - 69%

    That difference in vote between 2015 and the referendum is greater than the winning percentage.
  • malcolmg said:

    Charles said:

    On resigning club, I’ve already ‘resigned’ from Crossrail (2 weeks ago, as it happens) and am leaving that client after nearly 5.5 years. I may do a day or so a week there next year, but I finish there full time at Christmas.

    I’m working on a new client for 2020, which may amuse some of you when I reveal it but I can’t discuss it yet.

    That means it’s either (a) fixed; or (b) unfixable

    We should be told!

    I’ve just had enough.

    I wouldn’t expect it to open before Christmas 2021.
    Crossrail is a project of national importance and like 90% of the country I don't even understand exactly what it is meant to do except make travelling around London easier. What is the problem ? I ask because by God we need to know for HS2, HS 3/4 and the whole Northern Powerhouse. Do you think the equivalent of your concerns are even being considered re the reassessment of HS2 ?
    Usual vanity London project , sucking all the investrment from the rest of the country so Londoners get it a bit easier. More over budget than is spent on the rest of the UK.
    Was ever thus Malc
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,381
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The Tories might not be too worried by the MRP from last night because it means their voters won't be complacent. If it had said 68 majority again that might have been a problem for the party.

    Yes it is good news for us getting supporters to Chingford to knock up
    Chingford is so close on the MRP that it's going to be the destination of choice for a big slice of the London Labour Party.
    Whereas, they'd probably be better off playing defence in London.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,405
    Joined September 2019? Who is funding them on the quiet?
  • One interesting epiphany about human nature I’ve had in the last 2-3 years is how total ignorance of the subject matter, or the facts, doesn’t stop people having very strong opinions on a subject, and telling you so as if it’s the truth.

    People don’t really make decisions on logic or reason or on how informed they are, but by how something makes them feel.

    As well as my betting strategy this has informed my decision-making in aspects of my professional life recently and I’ve been astonished at the results.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695

    malcolmg said:

    Charles said:

    On resigning club, I’ve already ‘resigned’ from Crossrail (2 weeks ago, as it happens) and am leaving that client after nearly 5.5 years. I may do a day or so a week there next year, but I finish there full time at Christmas.

    I’m working on a new client for 2020, which may amuse some of you when I reveal it but I can’t discuss it yet.

    That means it’s either (a) fixed; or (b) unfixable

    We should be told!

    I’ve just had enough.

    I wouldn’t expect it to open before Christmas 2021.
    Crossrail is a project of national importance and like 90% of the country I don't even understand exactly what it is meant to do except make travelling around London easier. What is the problem ? I ask because by God we need to know for HS2, HS 3/4 and the whole Northern Powerhouse. Do you think the equivalent of your concerns are even being considered re the reassessment of HS2 ?
    Usual vanity London project , sucking all the investrment from the rest of the country so Londoners get it a bit easier. More over budget than is spent on the rest of the UK.
    It does very much look like that.
    No it isn’t.

    All of that is completely wrong.
    I am not saying it's right - I am just saying that's how it looks (from Dorset in my case).
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    Sean_F said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The Tories might not be too worried by the MRP from last night because it means their voters won't be complacent. If it had said 68 majority again that might have been a problem for the party.

    Yes it is good news for us getting supporters to Chingford to knock up
    Chingford is so close on the MRP that it's going to be the destination of choice for a big slice of the London Labour Party.
    Whereas, they'd probably be better off playing defence in London.
    How many Labour seats are at risk in London north of the river? Dagenham, that's probably it.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,381
    Andy_JS said:

    nunu2 said:

    eek said:



    3 years means nothing this is a generational shift, we.re due one. All we are seeing is the death throes of the old order and as yet there new one hasn't emerged. The vote, as pointed out , was not just about the EU. The EU - unfairly - took the rap for a general discontent which politicans had been ignoring. Most of the discontent is on home grown issues which our politicans could have addressed but didn't. The EU ref was used as a chance to kick them in the nadgers to get their attention. It certainly did that.

    And it's possible that tomorrow those same people (the one Cummings was hoping to use to win this election) may come out and vote.

    If they do who do you think they will vote for - I suspect it won't be Boris after this campaign..
    WHY WAS HE IN PUDSEY?!?!!? Wtf?! Are they scared they won't even get a majority?
    Probably because in 2017 the Tories thought they were going to win Pudsey easily since they were defending a 4,500 vote majority and in the event that was reduced to just 331.
    Of course you'd visit a hyper-marginal constituency.
  • Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    I think SLab are seeing a resurgence. They are going to poll 20%+ and that could well dent the SNP just like in 2017.

    I am inspecting constituency bets.

    I concur. Definite signs of SLab recovery. I think they would have held Kirkcaldy even without the SNP handing it to them on a plate. Now looking nervously at several other seats.
    I think they could now be value in East Lothian.
    Yepp. sLab 11/4 to Hold East Lothian looks like value. Should perhaps be 3/2.
This discussion has been closed.