In 2015 the Tories had a golden opportunity to show that conservative economics worked and delivered both individual liberty and good public services for both the well off and the struggling. Instead they wasted it all on their Brexit obsession.
I can't see how they will be able to repeat the Cameron detoxification again.
Indeed. I have been troubled by this now since before the referendum. How can a party that claims to be a party of business and the economy push a policy that is so economically illiterate? Removing their one key USP makes them almost pointless. They are simply the "we are not the Corbyn Party" now. It is the equivalent of the Labour Party deciding to privatise the NHS.
So Con, LD & Green down, Lab & Brexit up. A 5 pt Labour lead has morphed into a 10pt one.
In isolation this sounds kind of feasible. But right next door is Plymouth Moor View, Johnny Mercer’s seat. I made a nice little pile on Mercer in 2015 when nobody gave him a chance of taking the seat, mostly based on local knowledge (I’m from Plymouth but no longer live there). The equivalents are:
I’m struggling to see how the Labour vote has moved so much in PS&D but not in PMV, especially given the upwards movement for the Brexit Party (Anne Widdecombe).
The two constituencies aren’t that much different. PS&D has more students & coffee shops but the expansion of the University has been so rapid that a lot of student accommodation is now being built on the outskirts of the city (in PMV) both for the Uni and the teacher training college. Both constituencies have their fair share of (traditionally Labour) deprived areas. Control of the local council seems always to be on a knife edge and switches between Con and Lab on a regular basis.
It was pretty obvious that Labour/Pollard was going to win in 2017 (T May made a spectacularly awful visit to the city, really really bad) and he does have that shiny first term advantage but I still think it’s going to be close. Certainly closer than MRP2 and probably closer than MRP1.
Corbyn at best will have a wafer thin majority to deliver 2nd ref with a GE to follow straight after. None of his policies will have time to be implemented, we will increase spending, just like we would in the Tories and decide again in autumn 2020. .
Corbo is going to have the SNP and LD control rods moderating him and preventing him from going full Чорнобиль.
Probably true but "let's put him in power, we can control him and his movement", where have we heard that before?
Indeed ... i can't believe Remainers (who are supposed to be the brainy ones, so we're told) would risk Corbyn in order to block Brexit but apparently they are going to (again). Once the Marxists get a hold of power they don't let go (see Labour Leadership elections for the most recent example). They only need to be lucky once.
Ironically the more "unelectable" Corbyn and his cronies appear to be the more likely the are to be elected (either because people think the chance is low so their anti-Tory vote is safe or becuase they think he can be controlled once in Government).
At this stage all we can do is trust that the great British public hasn't lost its collective marbles.
Well said. The desire to stop Brexit at all costs has become so large in people`s minds that it can be seen from outer space.
In 2015 the Tories had a golden opportunity to show that conservative economics worked and delivered both individual liberty and good public services for both the well off and the struggling. Instead they wasted it all on their Brexit obsession.
I can't see how they will be able to repeat the Cameron detoxification again.
In 2015 the tories found a great distraction to hide the fact that the country was and is stagnating.
Perhaps what the Tories should have done to nullify Corbyn’s NHS lies was to reach out and suggest a cross party group would make all policy decisions and reforms to the NHS. Labour would look like they were playing party politics if they turned down the offer and could not simultaneously argue it was under threat from the Tories but refuse to get involved.
That would be a smart move indeed. It would be the equivalent of Labour giving the BoE independence.
In 2015 the Tories had a golden opportunity to show that conservative economics worked and delivered both individual liberty and good public services for both the well off and the struggling. Instead they wasted it all on their Brexit obsession.
I can't see how they will be able to repeat the Cameron detoxification again.
In 2015 the tories found a great distraction to hide the fact that the country was and is stagnating.
It's still working - no-one has noticed how zombified and unproductive our economy is.
Is there a seat we can keep an eye on that will indicate the likelihood of a majority or a Hung Parliament, that will he declared early on?
I think Swindon North has declared early-ish in the last two elections and has been a decent guide to what's going on.
Although gone against national move last two elections. If Sunderland comes in very tight then the reds are going to be sweating for two or three hours.
Corbyn at best will have a wafer thin majority to deliver 2nd ref with a GE to follow straight after. None of his policies will have time to be implemented, we will increase spending, just like we would in the Tories and decide again in autumn 2020. .
Corbo is going to have the SNP and LD control rods moderating him and preventing him from going full Чорнобиль.
Probably true but "let's put him in power, we can control him and his movement", where have we heard that before?
Indeed ... i can't believe Remainers (who are supposed to be the brainy ones, so we're told) would risk Corbyn in order to block Brexit but apparently they are going to (again). Once the Marxists get a hold of power they don't let go (see Labour Leadership elections for the most recent example). They only need to be lucky once.
Ironically the more "unelectable" Corbyn and his cronies appear to be the more likely the are to be elected (either because people think the chance is low so their anti-Tory vote is safe or becuase they think he can be controlled once in Government).
At this stage all we can do is trust that the great British public hasn't lost its collective marbles.
Well said. The desire to stop Brexit at all costs has become so large in people`s minds that it can be seen from outer space.
It’s complete rubbish with nothing to prove the farcical untruths about Marxist abolishing voting, get a bloody grip i assume you are an adult.
Perhaps what the Tories should have done to nullify Corbyn’s NHS lies was to reach out and suggest a cross party group would make all policy decisions and reforms to the NHS. Labour would look like they were playing party politics if they turned down the offer and could not simultaneously argue it was under threat from the Tories but refuse to get involved.
That would be a smart move indeed. It would be the equivalent of Labour giving the BoE independence.
So why haven't the Conservatives offered it? Three scenarios:
a) Galaxy-brain Cummings hasn't thought of it b) You can't on the one hand claim "Corbyn is an existential threat to British society" and on the other say "We're going to give Corbyn a say in running the most prized aspect of British society" c) Or some of "Corbyn's NHS lies" are actually true
Interestingly the Daily Mail website headline is Boris hiding in a Fridge...
Just what I was going to post this very minute. Have they suddenly gone off message ? This is the first time I've not seen them campainging ardently for Johnson for a month in their main headline.
Johnson hiding in a Fridge is front page material no matter the news paper.
The Guardian Front page had the bloody bulldozer going through the polystyrenen blocks as their image this morning before the fridge.
There are some visuals/stories that papers are always going to run.
And yet the Mail has studiously avoided other Johnson screw-ups before and during the campaign for a long time now - and it's had some of its fiercest and most virulent campaigning I've ever seen from it over the last few weeks. There may be something up with this choice of headline and this particular time.
Hoping for a hung parliament and therefore a proper hard no-deal Brexit in January?
Nope - it's too embarrassing to be ignored and Piers is (well was) a Daily Mail Columnist.
It's also likely to lead the ITV news tonight so can't be avoided.
It's interesting to see how mild the labour equivalent story below is..
"Boris is a plonker who hides in a fridge" is a more endearing final image of the the campaign that "Boris is a beast who don't care about kid on floor, vote labour, duuuuuhhh"...
It looks like a lot of seats on (very roughly) the eastern side of England have swung slightly to the Conservatives since the previous MRP study: Sedgefield, Peterborough, Lincoln, Gedling, NW Durham, Scunthorpe.
I haven't seen a single newspaper endorsing Corbyn. Not one. Even the Daily Mirror, probably the most partisan pro Labour newspaper in existence, can't bring themselves to overtly support him.
It's pretty remarkable. And none of the print media have a single decent front page. None of the killer soundbites of old.
Perth and North Perthshire has moved from SNP 46% Con 37% to SNP 44% Con 41%.
The changes in Scotland are small but seismic. A few seats have gone from narrow to comfortable (for instance Ed West) but the rest of the country has gone from comfortable to razor thin.
Can't believe Johnson ended up hiding in a fridge. Are the Tory aides really that stupid?
Sorry PB Tories but I am hearing the NHS debacle has prompted Labour leavers to reluctantly accept there are other issues at stake than Brexit. The Tories on Monday were on the verge of bagging up all kinds of daft seats, but I suspect now that you'll be celebrating Bolsover as your biggest scalp and little else.
Hung parliament. Tories the largest party but way off a majority, no allies, no power. Conversely Labour will be even further off a majority, no allies, no power...
Happily the 2015 parliament expires in May 2020 so perhaps things will be settled in that proper General Election as opposed to these daft mid term re-elections.
Perhaps what the Tories should have done to nullify Corbyn’s NHS lies was to reach out and suggest a cross party group would make all policy decisions and reforms to the NHS. Labour would look like they were playing party politics if they turned down the offer and could not simultaneously argue it was under threat from the Tories but refuse to get involved.
That would be a smart move indeed. It would be the equivalent of Labour giving the BoE independence.
So why haven't the Conservatives offered it? Three scenarios:
a) Galaxy-brain Cummings hasn't thought of it b) You can't on the one hand claim "Corbyn is an existential threat to British society" and on the other say "We're going to give Corbyn a say in running the most prized aspect of British society" c) Or some of "Corbyn's NHS lies" are actually true
Of those, I think (a) is the least likely.
But in the long term taking politics out of it would surely lead to a better functioning system that isn't revamped whenever a party with a different colour comes in?
Interestingly the Daily Mail website headline is Boris hiding in a Fridge...
Just what I was going to post this very minute. Have they suddenly gone off message ? This is the first time I've not seen them campainging ardently for Johnson for a month in their main headline.
Johnson hiding in a Fridge is front page material no matter the news paper.
The Guardian Front page had the bloody bulldozer going through the polystyrenen blocks as their image this morning before the fridge.
There are some visuals/stories that papers are always going to run.
And yet the Mail has studiously avoided other Johnson screw-ups before and during the campaign for a long time now - and it's had some of its fiercest and most virulent campaigning I've ever seen from it over the last few weeks. There may be something up with this choice of headline and this particular time.
Hoping for a hung parliament and therefore a proper hard no-deal Brexit in January?
Nope - it's too embarrassing to be ignored and Piers is (well was) a Daily Mail Columnist.
It's also likely to lead the ITV news tonight so can't be avoided.
It's interesting to see how mild the labour equivalent story below is..
"Boris is a plonker who hides in a fridge" is a more endearing final image of the the campaign that "Boris is a beast who don't care about kid on floor, vote labour, duuuuuhhh"...
Most people will have seen both stories and if they have they combine into
Boris is a plonker who hides in a fridge as he doesn't want to talk about his lack of care about kid on floor.
Today is a day where it would be nice to hear Roger explain how multiple adverts are used to produce a picture that is broader than 1 single image.
Boris refusing to talk about his plans while not caring about people and the NHS is probably not the story CCHQ wanted on the last week of campaigning.
What about this? Or are we shopping around for an analysis which does not call out Tory lies? Or Labour lies? Or LibDem bar charts? General election 2019: Ads are 'indecent, dishonest and untruthful' https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-50726500
Indeed. I have been troubled by this now since before the referendum. How can a party that claims to be a party of business and the economy push a policy that is so economically illiterate? Removing their one key USP makes them almost pointless. They are simply the "we are not the Corbyn Party" now. It is the equivalent of the Labour Party deciding to privatise the NHS.
The problem for the Tories is that they are pitted against an opposition that is promising millions of people they will take money off other people to give to them.
Free money.
Except it isn't because the really wealthy will be long gone leaving the definition of rich to be £80,000 then £70,000 then £50,000 because Labour will never be able to admit their policy of buying votes with others peoples wages will never work so the definition of wealthy will expand to increase the tax base.
Corbyn at best will have a wafer thin majority to deliver 2nd ref with a GE to follow straight after. None of his policies will have time to be implemented, we will increase spending, just like we would in the Tories and decide again in autumn 2020. .
Corbo is going to have the SNP and LD control rods moderating him and preventing him from going full Чорнобиль.
Probably true but "let's put him in power, we can control him and his movement", where have we heard that before?
Indeed ... i can't believe Remainers (who are supposed to be the brainy ones, so we're told) would risk Corbyn in order to block Brexit but apparently they are going to (again). Once the Marxists get a hold of power they don't let go (see Labour Leadership elections for the most recent example). They only need to be lucky once.
Ironically the more "unelectable" Corbyn and his cronies appear to be the more likely the are to be elected (either because people think the chance is low so their anti-Tory vote is safe or becuase they think he can be controlled once in Government).
At this stage all we can do is trust that the great British public hasn't lost its collective marbles.
Well said. The desire to stop Brexit at all costs has become so large in people`s minds that it can be seen from outer space.
Let us hope that it has. Common sense has to return at some point. I have always had faith in the collective common sense of the British people, though 2015 was the result of an aberration at best or a result of hostile power interference at worst. Brexit was an example of fuckwittery policy making in extremis. History will look back on it as collective stupidity. Sensible politicians should be looking at how to mitigate the damage. Sadly we have a choice between a buffoon and thickhead, so the outcome does not look rosey.
Can't believe Johnson ended up hiding in a fridge. Are the Tory aides really that stupid?
Sorry PB Tories but I am hearing the NHS debacle has prompted Labour leavers to reluctantly accept there are other issues at stake than Brexit. The Tories on Monday were on the verge of bagging up all kinds of daft seats, but I suspect now that you'll be celebrating Bolsover as your biggest scalp and little else.
Hung parliament. Tories the largest party but way off a majority, no allies, no power. Conversely Labour will be even further off a majority, no allies, no power...
Happily the 2015 parliament expires in May 2020 so perhaps things will be settled in that proper General Election as opposed to these daft mid term re-elections.
+1 - we need the Tories to not do well but equally we need Labour to lose enough seats that Corbyn goes and is replaceable by someone better. Sadly I suspect the policies are here to stay but with a better leader Labour would be winning seats not just fighting to retain them.
Perhaps what the Tories should have done to nullify Corbyn’s NHS lies was to reach out and suggest a cross party group would make all policy decisions and reforms to the NHS. Labour would look like they were playing party politics if they turned down the offer and could not simultaneously argue it was under threat from the Tories but refuse to get involved.
That would be a smart move indeed. It would be the equivalent of Labour giving the BoE independence.
So why haven't the Conservatives offered it? Three scenarios:
a) Galaxy-brain Cummings hasn't thought of it b) You can't on the one hand claim "Corbyn is an existential threat to British society" and on the other say "We're going to give Corbyn a say in running the most prized aspect of British society" c) Or some of "Corbyn's NHS lies" are actually true
Of those, I think (a) is the least likely.
But in the long term taking politics out of it would surely lead to a better functioning system that isn't revamped whenever a party with a different colour comes in?
Stephen Dorrell suggested that a while ago and was ignored. He's no longer a Tory. Lansley, the ex-SoS said that the NHS needed £30 bn/yr urgently.
I thought that both of the above statements had merit. I think Dorrell had concluded after looking at the figures that government-run systems cost a bit less to run than government-regulated insurance systems, i.e. for similar outcomes.
Perhaps what the Tories should have done to nullify Corbyn’s NHS lies was to reach out and suggest a cross party group would make all policy decisions and reforms to the NHS. Labour would look like they were playing party politics if they turned down the offer and could not simultaneously argue it was under threat from the Tories but refuse to get involved.
That would be a smart move indeed. It would be the equivalent of Labour giving the BoE independence.
So why haven't the Conservatives offered it? Three scenarios:
a) Galaxy-brain Cummings hasn't thought of it b) You can't on the one hand claim "Corbyn is an existential threat to British society" and on the other say "We're going to give Corbyn a say in running the most prized aspect of British society" c) Or some of "Corbyn's NHS lies" are actually true
Of those, I think (a) is the least likely.
But in the long term taking politics out of it would surely lead to a better functioning system that isn't revamped whenever a party with a different colour comes in?
Absolutely, yes. But this has not been an election characterised by long-term thinking.
Hung parliament. Tories the largest party but way off a majority, no allies, no power. Conversely Labour will be even further off a majority, no allies, no power...
Happily the 2015 parliament expires in May 2020 so perhaps things will be settled in that proper General Election as opposed to these daft mid term re-elections.
If your prediction is correct we will be having another GE in a few weeks.
I haven't seen a single newspaper endorsing Corbyn. Not one. Even the Daily Mirror, probably the most partisan pro Labour newspaper in existence, can't bring themselves to overtly support him.
It's pretty remarkable. And none of the print media have a single decent front page. None of the killer soundbites of old.
So, ask yourself why so many people seem able and willing to support Corbyn? Is it because they are all radical Marxists, backing nationalisation of everything and a return of unfettered Union power?
No, the simpler reason is the current economic model isn't working for millions of people who work incredibly hard and are struggling to get along. They see nothing for them in the Conservative offering in terms of practical measures to improve their lot so row in with Labour who, if we're being blunt, may not be helping them but are making sure the rich "suffer" as well.
How do we make capitalism effective for those for whom hard work and long hours are the norm but who see at the end of all their efforts very little to show for it and are constantly having to run hard to stand still?
Indeed. I have been troubled by this now since before the referendum. How can a party that claims to be a party of business and the economy push a policy that is so economically illiterate? Removing their one key USP makes them almost pointless. They are simply the "we are not the Corbyn Party" now. It is the equivalent of the Labour Party deciding to privatise the NHS.
The problem for the Tories is that they are pitted against an opposition that is promising millions of people they will take money off other people to give to them.
Free money.
Except it isn't because the really wealthy will be long gone leaving the definition of rich to be £80,000 then £70,000 then £50,000 because Labour will never be able to admit their policy of buying votes with others peoples wages will never work so the definition of wealthy will expand to increase the tax base.
The free money virus was unleashed by Brexit, so don't go complaining about others using it.
Perhaps what the Tories should have done to nullify Corbyn’s NHS lies was to reach out and suggest a cross party group would make all policy decisions and reforms to the NHS. Labour would look like they were playing party politics if they turned down the offer and could not simultaneously argue it was under threat from the Tories but refuse to get involved.
That would be a smart move indeed. It would be the equivalent of Labour giving the BoE independence.
So why haven't the Conservatives offered it? Three scenarios:
a) Galaxy-brain Cummings hasn't thought of it b) You can't on the one hand claim "Corbyn is an existential threat to British society" and on the other say "We're going to give Corbyn a say in running the most prized aspect of British society" c) Or some of "Corbyn's NHS lies" are actually true
Of those, I think (a) is the least likely.
But in the long term taking politics out of it would surely lead to a better functioning system that isn't revamped whenever a party with a different colour comes in?
This is an election where the Tories (not the Labour candidate) have promised to reopen A&E departments that were closed due to offering a poor (life threatening) service.
Lots of highly significant changes like that in Scotland. Maybe I will win my Ed West bet after all.
I don't get these changes, or indeed similar-sized changes in England. The changes look too big and not always in the right direction which you compare them with the change in national polling over the the period.
I wonder if they have tweaked their model? Or alternatively they must have picked up some changes in the profile of vote share which the headline national polls would mask.
One thing I would say is that the key point isn't so much what they are forecasting, but that there is a high degree of uncertainty and volatility in the forecasts - those wide error bars are there for a reason.
Interestingly the Daily Mail website headline is Boris hiding in a Fridge...
Just what I was going to post this very minute. Have they suddenly gone off message ? This is the first time I've not seen them campainging ardently for Johnson for a month in their main headline.
Johnson hiding in a Fridge is front page material no matter the news paper.
The Guardian Front page had the bloody bulldozer going through the polystyrenen blocks as their image this morning before the fridge.
There are some visuals/stories that papers are always going to run.
And yet the Mail has studiously avoided other Johnson screw-ups before and during the campaign for a long time now - and it's had some of its fiercest and most virulent campaigning I've ever seen from it over the last few weeks. There may be something up with this choice of headline and this particular time.
Hoping for a hung parliament and therefore a proper hard no-deal Brexit in January?
Nope - it's too embarrassing to be ignored and Piers is (well was) a Daily Mail Columnist.
It's also likely to lead the ITV news tonight so can't be avoided.
It's interesting to see how mild the labour equivalent story below is..
"Boris is a plonker who hides in a fridge" is a more endearing final image of the the campaign that "Boris is a beast who don't care about kid on floor, vote labour, duuuuuhhh"...
Most people will have seen both stories and if they have they combine into
Boris is a plonker who hides in a fridge as he doesn't want to talk about his lack of care about kid on floor.
Today is a day where it would be nice to hear Roger explain how multiple adverts are used to produce a picture that is broader than 1 single image.
Boris refusing to talk about his plans while not caring about people and the NHS is probably not the story CCHQ wanted on the last week of campaigning.
It has the look of Gordon Brown's final days in office, it really does. Whatever gloss and magic dust Boris had has been completely blown away in 3 days flat.
Perhaps what the Tories should have done to nullify Corbyn’s NHS lies was to reach out and suggest a cross party group would make all policy decisions and reforms to the NHS. Labour would look like they were playing party politics if they turned down the offer and could not simultaneously argue it was under threat from the Tories but refuse to get involved.
That would be a smart move indeed. It would be the equivalent of Labour giving the BoE independence.
So why haven't the Conservatives offered it? Three scenarios:
a) Galaxy-brain Cummings hasn't thought of it b) You can't on the one hand claim "Corbyn is an existential threat to British society" and on the other say "We're going to give Corbyn a say in running the most prized aspect of British society" c) Or some of "Corbyn's NHS lies" are actually true
Of those, I think (a) is the least likely.
But in the long term taking politics out of it would surely lead to a better functioning system that isn't revamped whenever a party with a different colour comes in?
The same could be said of education, policing, defence, environment. The problem with cross party approaches is whilst not all of it is about money, a lot of it is about money. The party not holding the responsibility for raising tax will always say we need more investment. The governing party will then either look stingy, have to raise taxes or make cuts in one of the other big budgets with the problems that entails.
Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross - up 9 Edinburgh West - up 7 Sutton and Cheam - up 7 Carshalton and Wallington - up 7 Esher and Walton - up 6 Mid Dorset and North Poole - up 5 Cities of London and Westminster - up 5 South Cambridgeshire - up 5 Wokingham - up 5 Maidenhead - up 4 North Wiltshire - up 4 Buckingham - up 4 East Dunbartonshire - up 4 Taunton Deane - up 4 Westmorland and Lonsdale - up 4 Eastleigh - up 3 Hitchin and Harpenden - up 3 Newbury - up 3 Chesham and Amersham - up 3 Meon Valley - up 3 North Cornwall - up 3 Somerton and Frome - up 3 North East Hampshire - up 3 Winchester - up 3 Newcastle upon Tyne East - up 3 Twickenham - up 3
Hung parliament. Tories the largest party but way off a majority, no allies, no power. Conversely Labour will be even further off a majority, no allies, no power...
Happily the 2015 parliament expires in May 2020 so perhaps things will be settled in that proper General Election as opposed to these daft mid term re-elections.
If your prediction is correct we will be having another GE in a few weeks.
The January 31st deadline will need to be dealt with first - and how would that work out with no clear decision.
You would need to hold a second referendum simply because a general election has been shown twice not to work...
Had to drop my car off this morning for some repairs. Walked back to the station and went into Bootle New Strand shopping centre for a look around again. I've been a lot these last few weeks on 'business' (okay, full disclosure - my wife is being an elf in the Santa's grotto there.... I was asked if wanted to be Santa but though I have the stomach for it, I don't act).
It's a depressing place, best remembered for the kidnapping and murder of James Bulger now over 25 years ago.
You wouldn't think there was an election on. Not a red (or any other coloured) poster anywhere.
I haven't seen anything in Bootle. Not a thing. Sefton Central has a few posters about for Bill Esterson but nothing else.
Finally got the last few leaflets yesterday. Now had two Labour, one Lib Dem, one Brexit and one Conservative. Nothing from the Greens.
Hung parliament. Tories the largest party but way off a majority, no allies, no power. Conversely Labour will be even further off a majority, no allies, no power...
Happily the 2015 parliament expires in May 2020 so perhaps things will be settled in that proper General Election as opposed to these daft mid term re-elections.
If your prediction is correct we will be having another GE in a few weeks.
The NHS story - not just the boy on the floor but the Tory reaction to is - has become the bog move late in the campaign. Johnson hiding in a fridge from live TV cameras this morning compounding their problems. Labour will lose seats, but so will the Tories. The 2019 parliament will be hung the only question now is how hung...
Kensington - down 8 York Outer - down 8 Rushcliffe - down 8 South West Hertfordshire - down 7 South Norfolk - down 6 Battersea - down 6 Warwick and Leamington - down 6 Bristol North West - down 5 Watford - down 5 Hammersmith - down 5 South West Wiltshire - down 5 Banbury - down 5 North East Bedfordshire - down 5 North East Hertfordshire - down 5 Macclesfield - down 5 North East Somerset - down 5 Sleaford and North Hykeham - down 5 Vauxhall - down 5 Enfield, Southgate - down 5 Bexhill and Battle - down 5
Perth and North Perthshire has moved from SNP 46% Con 37% to SNP 44% Con 41%.
The changes in Scotland are small but seismic. A few seats have gone from narrow to comfortable (for instance Ed West) but the rest of the country has gone from comfortable to razor thin.
Both Labour, HP Both Tory, landslide One of each, working tory majority
I live in Bury South. It's been consistently predicted as a Tory gain this time whereas North is down as labour hold having been gained perhaps unexpectedly from the Tories in 2017.
It doesn't feel entirely right to me. North is far more Tory. South is metropolitan Manchester and much more remainy and ripe for tactical voting. it's also heavily Jewish so presumably it is thought that will depress the Labour vote catastrophically alongside the sitting Jewish MP Ivan Lewis having been ditched by Labour and standing against them as independent. I don't sense that Lewis has any real personal following. Labour friends and family who have sung his praises for years are all universally backing the Labour candidate.
North feels like the sort of seat working class leave voters may switch to Boris in.
My gut feel is Labour hold both. But North feels the better prospect for the Tories to me.
I'm still agonising. I can't countenance voting to put a pair of Marxists into downing street. But I still think Brexit is insane and too much of an unknown quantity given we have only managed to negotiate the divorce deal - which is mostly awful and punitive.
I may vote Lib Dem as a principled protest knowing they can't win here and that Labour will presumably hold the seat, or just abstain for the first time in my life.
Nobody is talking about master campaigner Johnson anymore.
If you’re trying to convince the public you’re winning, hiding away really isn’t a good sign.
Me thinks their internal polling is worse than the MRP and they’re set for a Hung Parliament. Would explain the DM, Sun and Telegraph headlines and tweets today.
You really don't want the Tories to win, do you? Fair dos I suppose.
I'm completely back in the blue fold, even to the extent of agreeing to cycle in the forecasted pouring rain, at 6.30am for the first telling slot when polls open at 7.00am. Bloody idiot.
By the way, my hunch (I know, I know) is that Raab will win by 7-10k whatever the MRP predicts as a nail-biting 2%.
Question on exit poll. Do they start adjusting as soon as the results come in? So if it’s wildly off will we know quickly? I ask because I want to strategically time my sleep
Nobody is talking about master campaigner Johnson anymore.
If you’re trying to convince the public you’re winning, hiding away really isn’t a good sign.
Me thinks their internal polling is worse than the MRP and they’re set for a Hung Parliament. Would explain the DM, Sun and Telegraph headlines and tweets today.
Do you think their strategy would be to say 'its in the bag'?
In 2015 the Tories had a golden opportunity to show that conservative economics worked and delivered both individual liberty and good public services for both the well off and the struggling. Instead they wasted it all on their Brexit obsession.
I can't see how they will be able to repeat the Cameron detoxification again.
In 2015 the tories found a great distraction to hide the fact that the country was and is stagnating.
It's still working - no-one has noticed how zombified and unproductive our economy is.
That's hilarious after Labour gave us the worst economic crash since the 1930's
Hung parliament. Tories the largest party but way off a majority, no allies, no power. Conversely Labour will be even further off a majority, no allies, no power...
Happily the 2015 parliament expires in May 2020 so perhaps things will be settled in that proper General Election as opposed to these daft mid term re-elections.
If your prediction is correct we will be having another GE in a few weeks.
The NHS story - not just the boy on the floor but the Tory reaction to is - has become the bog move late in the campaign. Johnson hiding in a fridge from live TV cameras this morning compounding their problems. Labour will lose seats, but so will the Tories. The 2019 parliament will be hung the only question now is how hung...
If Labour lose seats, net, I can't see the Conservatives also doing so.
Question on exit poll. Do they start adjusting as soon as the results come in? So if it’s wildly off will we know quickly? I ask because I want to strategically time my sleep
The projection is often updated throughout the night, but I'm not sure if there is a set schedule for it.
Lots of highly significant changes like that in Scotland. Maybe I will win my Ed West bet after all.
I don't get these changes, or indeed similar-sized changes in England. The changes look too big and not always in the right direction which you compare them with the change in national polling over the the period.
I wonder if they have tweaked their model? Or alternatively they must have picked up some changes in the profile of vote share which the headline national polls would mask.
One thing I would say is that the key point isn't so much what they are forecasting, but that there is a high degree of uncertainty and volatility in the forecasts - those wide error bars are there for a reason.
There has been nothing that could possibly make such a change in the last few days, it looks like bollox. How could LibDems gain 11 points when they are circling the drain, I just cannot believe it.
Perhaps what the Tories should have done to nullify Corbyn’s NHS lies was to reach out and suggest a cross party group would make all policy decisions and reforms to the NHS. Labour would look like they were playing party politics if they turned down the offer and could not simultaneously argue it was under threat from the Tories but refuse to get involved.
That would be a smart move indeed. It would be the equivalent of Labour giving the BoE independence.
I couldn't agree more, I posted this on yesterday morning's thread:
I think yesterday was a low point in our political discourse.
Social media reduction of a complex issue that has already been weaponised in the most trite of ways.
All sides were to blame. No one can claim any advantage from yesterday. A pox on all of them.
The first party to depoliticise health and care, and commit to genuine long-term cross-party discussion and consensus within the protection of a legal framework on the way forward for these vital services, should be on to a massive vote winner.
The fantasy that the Health Secretary can control or is accountable for some poor kid sleeping on his coat on the floor having waited too long for assessment, is simply a fantasy and a distraction.
We should outsource the NHS and Social Care to an independent equivalent of the Boundary Commission or Electoral Commission. Parliament’s role should be to set the parameters of what is required, and to agree a 10 year funding formula on a rolling basis once every parliament. Let the professionals then get on with delivery free of political interference and risk.
Sadly we don‘t have the the political talent or courage to do this.
In 2015 the Tories had a golden opportunity to show that conservative economics worked and delivered both individual liberty and good public services for both the well off and the struggling. Instead they wasted it all on their Brexit obsession.
I can't see how they will be able to repeat the Cameron detoxification again.
In 2015 the tories found a great distraction to hide the fact that the country was and is stagnating.
It's still working - no-one has noticed how zombified and unproductive our economy is.
That's hilarious after Labour gave us the worst economic crash since the 1930's
Yes but surely deserves the credit for completely avoiding the global financial crisis that hit everyone else at the same time. Unless they are related, in which case Labour did not cause the GFC. HTH.
In 2015 the Tories had a golden opportunity to show that conservative economics worked and delivered both individual liberty and good public services for both the well off and the struggling. Instead they wasted it all on their Brexit obsession.
I can't see how they will be able to repeat the Cameron detoxification again.
In 2015 the tories found a great distraction to hide the fact that the country was and is stagnating.
It's still working - no-one has noticed how zombified and unproductive our economy is.
That's hilarious after Labour gave us the worst economic crash since the 1930's
We are still in that recession - austerity means we haven't left it the way Germany and some parts of Eastern Europe have expanded over the past 10 years.
Yes our economy has expanded but if you look at GDP per capita it really hasn't..
Heck the average household in the North East is £200 worse off than they were in 2017..
Nobody is talking about master campaigner Johnson anymore.
If you’re trying to convince the public you’re winning, hiding away really isn’t a good sign.
Me thinks their internal polling is worse than the MRP and they’re set for a Hung Parliament. Would explain the DM, Sun and Telegraph headlines and tweets today.
Do you think their strategy would be to say 'its in the bag'?
Their strategy would be to stay quiet and yet they aren’t.
What you say has a point until again you look at things in context. Johnson visiting Remain marginals, MRP going in Labour’s favour. NHS story.
And now Johnson is trying to run away because he’s desperate to stop anymore negative attention.
In 2015 the Tories had a golden opportunity to show that conservative economics worked and delivered both individual liberty and good public services for both the well off and the struggling. Instead they wasted it all on their Brexit obsession.
I can't see how they will be able to repeat the Cameron detoxification again.
Indeed. I have been troubled by this now since before the referendum. How can a party that claims to be a party of business and the economy push a policy that is so economically illiterate? Removing their one key USP makes them almost pointless. They are simply the "we are not the Corbyn Party" now. It is the equivalent of the Labour Party deciding to privatise the NHS.
Brexit is the Tories greatest strength, and its greatest weakness. Imagine Corbyn v Cameron, there would be blood on the walls.
Perth and North Perthshire has moved from SNP 46% Con 37% to SNP 44% Con 41%.
The changes in Scotland are small but seismic. A few seats have gone from narrow to comfortable (for instance Ed West) but the rest of the country has gone from comfortable to razor thin.
North Ayrshire and Arran will be safe
It is one fo the few 'safe' seats in Scotland. Central Ayrshire is in the balance! Get down their and knock some sense into people.
Question on exit poll. Do they start adjusting as soon as the results come in? So if it’s wildly off will we know quickly? I ask because I want to strategically time my sleep
Yes they do, but the problem in the UK is that there are no interim results, so the only real updates come when the seats start being declared. In Germany you get a "Hochrechnung" about every half hour, as the votes are counted in the polling station and provisional results are released in some cases quite quickly.
Something that's reducing my blood pressure a little has been a quick comparison of the ranges of the final 2017 and 2019 MRPs:
2017: 269-334. Range 65. Midpoint 301.5. 2019: 311-367. Range 56. Midpoint 339.
Observations:
1. The midpoint today is greater than the top of the range last time. We Tories would have killed for this MRP in 2017.
2. The Tories actually outperformed the 2017 midpoint considerably: 317 stands at 73.8% of the top of the range. Replicating that performance this time would give the Tories an impressive 352.
3. Of course, past performance is no guarantee of the future, and the better they are predicted to be doing in absolute terms the harder it is to outperform, but even hitting only 25% of the range would put them on 325, which is enough to pass the Deal and govern for some time. 315, which is the realistic minimum to stay in (paralysed) office and keep Corbyn out, requires us to hit only 7.1% of the range.
Can't believe Johnson ended up hiding in a fridge. Are the Tory aides really that stupid?
Sorry PB Tories but I am hearing the NHS debacle has prompted Labour leavers to reluctantly accept there are other issues at stake than Brexit. The Tories on Monday were on the verge of bagging up all kinds of daft seats, but I suspect now that you'll be celebrating Bolsover as your biggest scalp and little else.
Hung parliament. Tories the largest party but way off a majority, no allies, no power. Conversely Labour will be even further off a majority, no allies, no power...
Happily the 2015 parliament expires in May 2020 so perhaps things will be settled in that proper General Election as opposed to these daft mid term re-elections.
We all have something nasty in our fridge that's well past its sell by date and needs to be binned immediately...
Something that's reducing my blood pressure a little has been a quick comparison of the ranges of the final 2017 and 2019 MRPs:
2017: 269-334. Range 65. Midpoint 301.5. 2019: 311-367. Range 56. Midpoint 339.
Observations:
1. The midpoint today is greater than the top of the range last time. We Tories would have killed for this MRP in 2017.
2. The Tories actually outperformed the 2017 midpoint considerably: 317 stands at 73.8% of the top of the range. Replicating that performance this time would give the Tories an impressive 352.
3. Of course, past performance is no guarantee of the future, and the better they are predicted to be doing in absolute terms the harder it is to outperform, but even hitting only 25% of the range would put them on 325, which is enough to pass the Deal and govern for some time. 315, which is the realistic minimum to stay in (paralysed) office and keep Corbyn out, requires us to hit only 7.1% of the range.
And breathe!
I still reckon the postal votes might play a part here when the Tories were doing much better. So, without wishing to sound like Mr Several Predictions A Day Hoping I Get At Least One Of Them Right, I'm going for -
tiny Tory majority, maybe half a dozen. That's it.
Perth and North Perthshire has moved from SNP 46% Con 37% to SNP 44% Con 41%.
The changes in Scotland are small but seismic. A few seats have gone from narrow to comfortable (for instance Ed West) but the rest of the country has gone from comfortable to razor thin.
North Ayrshire and Arran will be safe
It is one fo the few 'safe' seats in Scotland. Central Ayrshire is in the balance! Get down their and knock some sense into people.
Not that long ago that they weighed the Labour votes in North Ayrshire as well. PS: I am hoping you are completely wrong about way things are going, I just cannot imagine it.
Fridge gate is unlikely to lead the news tonight it will be the standard eve of poll pictures of the leaders doing their last minute campaigning, so in itself it wont change anything. The question is has the issue with the photo and is the NHS generally going to outweigh get it done? On here some comment that it is/has but seriously? Are we seriously getting that sort of hard doorstep feedback within 36 hours? A day of canvassing basically
Comments
Both Labour, HP
Both Tory, landslide
One of each, working tory majority
https://twitter.com/tortoise/status/1204719433379459073
I’ve been taking a look at MRP1 vs MRP2 for a few seats I’m considering having a flutter on.
Plymouth Sutton & Devonport looks good value to me for a Con gain.
MRP1 = C: 40, L: 45, LD: 5, Green: 3, Brexit: 6
MRP2 = C: 39, L: 49, LD: 3, Green: 2, Brexit: 8
So Con, LD & Green down, Lab & Brexit up. A 5 pt Labour lead has morphed into a 10pt one.
In isolation this sounds kind of feasible. But right next door is Plymouth Moor View, Johnny Mercer’s seat. I made a nice little pile on Mercer in 2015 when nobody gave him a chance of taking the seat, mostly based on local knowledge (I’m from Plymouth but no longer live there). The equivalents are:
MRP1 = C: 57, L: 35, LD: 5, Green: 3, Brexit (not standing): 0
MRP2 = C: 57, L: 36, LD: 4, Green: 2, Brexit (not standing): 0
I’m struggling to see how the Labour vote has moved so much in PS&D but not in PMV, especially given the upwards movement for the Brexit Party (Anne Widdecombe).
The two constituencies aren’t that much different. PS&D has more students & coffee shops but the expansion of the University has been so rapid that a lot of student accommodation is now being built on the outskirts of the city (in PMV) both for the Uni and the teacher training college. Both constituencies have their fair share of (traditionally Labour) deprived areas. Control of the local council seems always to be on a knife edge and switches between Con and Lab on a regular basis.
It was pretty obvious that Labour/Pollard was going to win in 2017 (T May made a spectacularly awful visit to the city, really really bad) and he does have that shiny first term advantage but I still think it’s going to be close. Certainly closer than MRP2 and probably closer than MRP1.
WillS.
Was: Lab 42, Con 37
Now: Lab 42, Con 41
a) Galaxy-brain Cummings hasn't thought of it
b) You can't on the one hand claim "Corbyn is an existential threat to British society" and on the other say "We're going to give Corbyn a say in running the most prized aspect of British society"
c) Or some of "Corbyn's NHS lies" are actually true
Of those, I think (a) is the least likely.
It's pretty remarkable. And none of the print media have a single decent front page. None of the killer soundbites of old.
Gyimah looks done for.
Sorry PB Tories but I am hearing the NHS debacle has prompted Labour leavers to reluctantly accept there are other issues at stake than Brexit. The Tories on Monday were on the verge of bagging up all kinds of daft seats, but I suspect now that you'll be celebrating Bolsover as your biggest scalp and little else.
Hung parliament. Tories the largest party but way off a majority, no allies, no power. Conversely Labour will be even further off a majority, no allies, no power...
Happily the 2015 parliament expires in May 2020 so perhaps things will be settled in that proper General Election as opposed to these daft mid term re-elections.
Sound familiar?
Could genuinely see the SNP lose seats. The MRP is absolutely mental.
Boris is a plonker who hides in a fridge as he doesn't want to talk about his lack of care about kid on floor.
Today is a day where it would be nice to hear Roger explain how multiple adverts are used to produce a picture that is broader than 1 single image.
Boris refusing to talk about his plans while not caring about people and the NHS is probably not the story CCHQ wanted on the last week of campaigning.
General election 2019: Ads are 'indecent, dishonest and untruthful'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-50726500
Free money.
Except it isn't because the really wealthy will be long gone leaving the definition of rich to be £80,000 then £70,000 then £50,000 because Labour will never be able to admit their policy of buying votes with others peoples wages will never work so the definition of wealthy will expand to increase the tax base.
I thought that both of the above statements had merit. I think Dorrell had concluded after looking at the figures that government-run systems cost a bit less to run than government-regulated insurance systems, i.e. for similar outcomes.
No, the simpler reason is the current economic model isn't working for millions of people who work incredibly hard and are struggling to get along. They see nothing for them in the Conservative offering in terms of practical measures to improve their lot so row in with Labour who, if we're being blunt, may not be helping them but are making sure the rich "suffer" as well.
How do we make capitalism effective for those for whom hard work and long hours are the norm but who see at the end of all their efforts very little to show for it and are constantly having to run hard to stand still?
I wonder if they have tweaked their model? Or alternatively they must have picked up some changes in the profile of vote share which the headline national polls would mask.
One thing I would say is that the key point isn't so much what they are forecasting, but that there is a high degree of uncertainty and volatility in the forecasts - those wide error bars are there for a reason.
Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross - up 9
Edinburgh West - up 7
Sutton and Cheam - up 7
Carshalton and Wallington - up 7
Esher and Walton - up 6
Mid Dorset and North Poole - up 5
Cities of London and Westminster - up 5
South Cambridgeshire - up 5
Wokingham - up 5
Maidenhead - up 4
North Wiltshire - up 4
Buckingham - up 4
East Dunbartonshire - up 4
Taunton Deane - up 4
Westmorland and Lonsdale - up 4
Eastleigh - up 3
Hitchin and Harpenden - up 3
Newbury - up 3
Chesham and Amersham - up 3
Meon Valley - up 3
North Cornwall - up 3
Somerton and Frome - up 3
North East Hampshire - up 3
Winchester - up 3
Newcastle upon Tyne East - up 3
Twickenham - up 3
You would need to hold a second referendum simply because a general election has been shown twice not to work...
It's a depressing place, best remembered for the kidnapping and murder of James Bulger now over 25 years ago.
You wouldn't think there was an election on. Not a red (or any other coloured) poster anywhere.
I haven't seen anything in Bootle. Not a thing. Sefton Central has a few posters about for Bill Esterson but nothing else.
Finally got the last few leaflets yesterday. Now had two Labour, one Lib Dem, one Brexit and one Conservative. Nothing from the Greens.
Oh dear
Kensington - down 8
York Outer - down 8
Rushcliffe - down 8
South West Hertfordshire - down 7
South Norfolk - down 6
Battersea - down 6
Warwick and Leamington - down 6
Bristol North West - down 5
Watford - down 5
Hammersmith - down 5
South West Wiltshire - down 5
Banbury - down 5
North East Bedfordshire - down 5
North East Hertfordshire - down 5
Macclesfield - down 5
North East Somerset - down 5
Sleaford and North Hykeham - down 5
Vauxhall - down 5
Enfield, Southgate - down 5
Bexhill and Battle - down 5
And who will call a 2nd referendum in that scenario?
It doesn't feel entirely right to me. North is far more Tory. South is metropolitan Manchester and much more remainy and ripe for tactical voting. it's also heavily Jewish so presumably it is thought that will depress the Labour vote catastrophically alongside the sitting Jewish MP Ivan Lewis having been ditched by Labour and standing against them as independent. I don't sense that Lewis has any real personal following. Labour friends and family who have sung his praises for years are all universally backing the Labour candidate.
North feels like the sort of seat working class leave voters may switch to Boris in.
My gut feel is Labour hold both. But North feels the better prospect for the Tories to me.
I'm still agonising. I can't countenance voting to put a pair of Marxists into downing street. But I still think Brexit is insane and too much of an unknown quantity given we have only managed to negotiate the divorce deal - which is mostly awful and punitive.
I may vote Lib Dem as a principled protest knowing they can't win here and that Labour will presumably hold the seat, or just abstain for the first time in my life.
Very depressing.
If you’re trying to convince the public you’re winning, hiding away really isn’t a good sign.
Me thinks their internal polling is worse than the MRP and they’re set for a Hung Parliament. Would explain the DM, Sun and Telegraph headlines and tweets today.
I'm completely back in the blue fold, even to the extent of agreeing to cycle in the forecasted pouring rain, at 6.30am for the first telling slot when polls open at 7.00am. Bloody idiot.
By the way, my hunch (I know, I know) is that Raab will win by 7-10k whatever the MRP predicts as a nail-biting 2%.
That's hilarious after Labour gave us the worst economic crash since the 1930's
Yes our economy has expanded but if you look at GDP per capita it really hasn't..
Heck the average household in the North East is £200 worse off than they were in 2017..
Boris Johnson has morphed into Gordon Brown, a gaffe prone idiot.
What you say has a point until again you look at things in context. Johnson visiting Remain marginals, MRP going in Labour’s favour. NHS story.
And now Johnson is trying to run away because he’s desperate to stop anymore negative attention.
It’s very close and the Tories know it.
The Cons need 320, which I think they'll do handily. All this talk of hung Parliaments is for the birds.
I don't want them to win. So if they do, at least its a sigh of "well, to be expected".
2017: 269-334. Range 65. Midpoint 301.5.
2019: 311-367. Range 56. Midpoint 339.
Observations:
1. The midpoint today is greater than the top of the range last time. We Tories would have killed for this MRP in 2017.
2. The Tories actually outperformed the 2017 midpoint considerably: 317 stands at 73.8% of the top of the range. Replicating that performance this time would give the Tories an impressive 352.
3. Of course, past performance is no guarantee of the future, and the better they are predicted to be doing in absolute terms the harder it is to outperform, but even hitting only 25% of the range would put them on 325, which is enough to pass the Deal and govern for some time. 315, which is the realistic minimum to stay in (paralysed) office and keep Corbyn out, requires us to hit only 7.1% of the range.
And breathe!
Wonder if we’ll see more of this
tiny Tory majority, maybe half a dozen. That's it.
PS: I am hoping you are completely wrong about way things are going, I just cannot imagine it.
On here some comment that it is/has but seriously? Are we seriously getting that sort of hard doorstep feedback within 36 hours? A day of canvassing basically