Jeremy Corbyn: has he just recovered from some illness or is he botoxed up to the gills? He suddenly looks ten years younger, or at least two years back to 2017.
I think he really enjoys campaigning..
Yes, campaigning is the bit of politics that he most enjoys, and indeed advocacy for constituents down on their luck. It is the stuff in Parliament that he finds less interesting, the opposite to most MPs.
You make him sound almost appealing, and then one has to remember anti-Semitism, terrorist sympathy and neo-Marxist Venezuelan economics.
I seem to be a bit unusual, in that I am fairly neutral on Corbyn. I think his economics are bonkers and his obsession with Israel and Palestine repulsive, but he is genuinely compassionate and his humble personal eccentricities with jam and allotment a charming English eccentricity.
I suppose that I recognise the essential duality of man in him, and that conflict between the devil and the angel.
I wonder if the obsession with Israel and Palestine is really Corbyn's or if it is in fact our own obsession - I once tried to find out how often he has criticised Israel compared to Saudi Arabia, and it seemed to be comparable. The difference being other people gave a lot more publicity to his criticism of Israel than of Saudi Arabia. I do think his principled hostility to Israeli policy in the occupied territories (and his resistance to going along with the push to conflate any criticism of Israel with anti-semitism) has created both a stupid willingness to give the benefit of the doubt to unprincipled critics of Israel, and a massive avoidable political problem for him and Labour. I think Corbyn is a pretty crap politician, and it's a tragedy to have a fairly rubbish Labour leader at this time. I'd still choose Corbyn over Johnson as PM without a moment's hesitation.
Serious (and perhaps quite important) question - the MRP results released last night showed a rather pronounced downward trend in the projected number of Tory seats over the last fortnight, but essentially no trend at all in the projected Tory percentage lead.
Does anyone understand - or has YouGov made any comment on - how these two findings can be reconciled?
Increased awareness of who you need to vote for to keep the Tories out in your seat resulting in increased tactical voting. A more efficient distribution of Labour and LibDem votes reduces the number of Tory seats.
The Tories might not be too worried by the MRP from last night because it means their voters won't be complacent. If it had said 68 majority again that might have been a problem for the party.
Yes it is good news for us getting supporters to Chingford to knock up
Chingford is so close on the MRP that it's going to be the destination of choice for a big slice of the London Labour Party.
Whereas, they'd probably be better off playing defence in London.
How many Labour seats are at risk in London north of the river? Dagenham, that's probably it.
The Lib Dems look to be very close in a whole load of non-London seats like Winchester. I don't think they're going to be doing quite as badly as many people are saying.
May I wish you good fortune, Harold. Best thing I ever did was resign from a job I wasn't enjoying, with no idea what I would do next.
seconded - Last time I did it I ended up doing my DPhil and moving to Denmark! I've jumped off the cliff a few times and it's always led somewhere better for me!
One interesting epiphany about human nature I’ve had in the last 2-3 years is how total ignorance of the subject matter, or the facts, doesn’t stop people having very strong opinions on a subject, and telling you so as if it’s the truth.
People don’t really make decisions on logic or reason or on how informed they are, but by how something makes them feel.
As well as my betting strategy this has informed my decision-making in aspects of my professional life recently and I’ve been astonished at the results.
Do you mean you’ve been making decisions this way recently, or you’ve taken it more into account when analysing other people’s decision-making?
I think SLab are seeing a resurgence. They are going to poll 20%+ and that could well dent the SNP just like in 2017.
I am inspecting constituency bets.
I concur. Definite signs of SLab recovery. I think they would have held Kirkcaldy even without the SNP handing it to them on a plate. Now looking nervously at several other seats.
But why are they recovering? I don’t get it
Same as last time, left wing Yes voters who like Corbyn.
Look at the message Sturgeon put out in the wake of the poll. Labour are not strong enough to beat the Tories - a direct appeal to Labour voters to vote anti-Tory.
One interesting epiphany about human nature I’ve had in the last 2-3 years is how total ignorance of the subject matter, or the facts, doesn’t stop people having very strong opinions on a subject, and telling you so as if it’s the truth.
People don’t really make decisions on logic or reason or on how informed they are, but by how something makes them feel.
As well as my betting strategy this has informed my decision-making in aspects of my professional life recently and I’ve been astonished at the results.
Do you mean you’ve been making decisions this way recently, or you’ve taken it more into account when analysing other people’s decision-making?
The latter.
I’m human, so not immune from it, but I am now aware of it.
Morning all Still sticking with my con 365, but the tentative YouGov evidence of a late shift, and quite a dramatic one, has me nervous for my prediction. Todays polls will obviously inform if there is further evidence of this or if it was a one off. The YouGov poll if we get one will be Instructive, if it's under an 8 or 9 lead then Johnson might have a problem
Speaking of vanity and quotations of a sort, my favourite song title (not the same as the title of my favourite song) is “You’re so vain, you probably think this song is about you”.
Er, that’s not the song’s title, it’s its opening two lines.
The song is called You’re So Vain.
First two lines of the chorus I think. The fist two lines are:
Son of a gun You walked into the party like you were walking onto a yacht.
3 years means nothing this is a generational shift, we.re due one. All we are seeing is the death throes of the old order and as yet there new one hasn't emerged. The vote, as pointed out , was not just about the EU. The EU - unfairly - took the rap for a general discontent which politicans had been ignoring. Most of the discontent is on home grown issues which our politicans could have addressed but didn't. The EU ref was used as a chance to kick them in the nadgers to get their attention. It certainly did that.
And it's possible that tomorrow those same people (the one Cummings was hoping to use to win this election) may come out and vote.
If they do who do you think they will vote for - I suspect it won't be Boris after this campaign..
WHY WAS HE IN PUDSEY?!?!!? Wtf?! Are they scared they won't even get a majority?
Today Jo Swinson will be in Esher, Wimbledon and Guildford. At least she appears to know where she should be going!
Not so sure about that. These issues are still fresh in the mind come tomorrow. Everyone has already forgotten that Boris bottled Andrew Neil.
Whether any of this negatively gains any traction is another thing.
I have to say if those running Boris' campaign planned to make him look like an absolute plonker in Uttoxeter and Pudsey then it is mission accomplished.
Serious (and perhaps quite important) question - the MRP results released last night showed a rather pronounced downward trend in the projected number of Tory seats over the last fortnight, but essentially no trend at all in the projected Tory percentage lead.
Does anyone understand - or has YouGov made any comment on - how these two findings can be reconciled?
Increased awareness of who you need to vote for to keep the Tories out in your seat resulting in increased tactical voting. A more efficient distribution of Labour and LibDem votes reduces the number of Tory seats.
It can't be that because they don't take account of local factors (and how would they know anyway; they use a panel approach).
The Tories might not be too worried by the MRP from last night because it means their voters won't be complacent. If it had said 68 majority again that might have been a problem for the party.
Yes it is good news for us getting supporters to Chingford to knock up
Chingford is so close on the MRP that it's going to be the destination of choice for a big slice of the London Labour Party.
Definitely time for another Portillo moment.
Dr Phil Hammond, who lives in NE Somerset, has wanted to stand against and defeat Mogg for ~3 years. He'd probably stand as an Independent. A pity that no party agreed with him ...
This problem of split anti-Tory votes at a crucial election works all ways. In Stroud, the Green candidate Molly Scott-Cato has annoyed people by standing in a marginal seat with a pro-EU Labour MP. She's already got a very well-paid job as an (excellent) MEP.
I think SLab are seeing a resurgence. They are going to poll 20%+ and that could well dent the SNP just like in 2017.
I am inspecting constituency bets.
I concur. Definite signs of SLab recovery. I think they would have held Kirkcaldy even without the SNP handing it to them on a plate. Now looking nervously at several other seats.
But why are they recovering? I don’t get it
Same as last time, left wing Yes voters who like Corbyn.
Look at the message Sturgeon put out in the wake of the poll. Labour are not strong enough to beat the Tories - a direct appeal to Labour voters to vote anti-Tory.
3 years means nothing this is a generational shift, we.re due one. All we are seeing is the death throes of the old order and as yet there new one hasn't emerged. The vote, as pointed out , was not just about the EU. The EU - unfairly - took the rap for a general discontent which politicans had been ignoring. Most of the discontent is on home grown issues which our politicans could have addressed but didn't. The EU ref was used as a chance to kick them in the nadgers to get their attention. It certainly did that.
And it's possible that tomorrow those same people (the one Cummings was hoping to use to win this election) may come out and vote.
If they do who do you think they will vote for - I suspect it won't be Boris after this campaign..
WHY WAS HE IN PUDSEY?!?!!? Wtf?! Are they scared they won't even get a majority?
Today Jo Swinson will be in Esher, Wimbledon and Guildford. At least she appears to know where she should be going!
...and I think those will all be in the bag for the yellows by Friday morning.
One interesting epiphany about human nature I’ve had in the last 2-3 years is how total ignorance of the subject matter, or the facts, doesn’t stop people having very strong opinions on a subject, and telling you so as if it’s the truth.
People don’t really make decisions on logic or reason or on how informed they are, but by how something makes them feel.
As well as my betting strategy this has informed my decision-making in aspects of my professional life recently and I’ve been astonished at the results.
Do you mean you’ve been making decisions this way recently, or you’ve taken it more into account when analysing other people’s decision-making?
The latter.
I’m human, so not immune from it, but I am now aware of it.
Do you read Scott Adams? This is his key insight from analysing Trump? It’s the emotion, stupid.
Works here. Bojo is just too affable that he comes across as vacant. Jezza comes across as serious, without being totally humourless. Works for some,
Jeremy Corbyn: has he just recovered from some illness or is he botoxed up to the gills? He suddenly looks ten years younger, or at least two years back to 2017.
I think he really enjoys campaigning..
Yes, campaigning is the bit of politics that he most enjoys, and indeed advocacy for constituents down on their luck. It is the stuff in Parliament that he finds less interesting, the opposite to most MPs.
You make him sound almost appealing, and then one has to remember anti-Semitism, terrorist sympathy and neo-Marxist Venezuelan economics.
I seem to be a bit unusual, in that I am fairly neutral on Corbyn. I think his economics are bonkers and his obsession with Israel and Palestine repulsive, but he is genuinely compassionate and his humble personal eccentricities with jam and allotment a charming English eccentricity.
I suppose that I recognise the essential duality of man in him, and that conflict between the devil and the angel.
I wonder if the obsession with Israel and Palestine is really Corbyn's or if it is in fact our own obsession - I once tried to find out how often he has criticised Israel compared to Saudi Arabia, and it seemed to be comparable. The difference being other people gave a lot more publicity to his criticism of Israel than of Saudi Arabia. I do think his principled hostility to Israeli policy in the occupied territories (and his resistance to going along with the push to conflate any criticism of Israel with anti-semitism) has created both a stupid willingness to give the benefit of the doubt to unprincipled critics of Israel, and a massive avoidable political problem for him and Labour. I think Corbyn is a pretty crap politician, and it's a tragedy to have a fairly rubbish Labour leader at this time. I'd still choose Corbyn over Johnson as PM without a moment's hesitation.
I disagree that equal criticism of Saudi Arabia and Israel is a measure of even-handedness. One is a cruel autocratic theocratic state that turns a blind eye to global funding of wahabi-ist extremesim, the other is far and away the strongest democracy and most liberal state in the region besieged on all sides by well funded terrorists and hostile state actors.
I think equal criticism in these circumstances is a clear sign of...well we can let the EHRC decide.
3 years means nothing this is a generational shift, we.re due one. All we are seeing is the death throes of the old order and as yet there new one hasn't emerged. The vote, as pointed out , was not just about the EU. The EU - unfairly - took the rap for a general discontent which politicans had been ignoring. Most of the discontent is on home grown issues which our politicans could have addressed but didn't. The EU ref was used as a chance to kick them in the nadgers to get their attention. It certainly did that.
And it's possible that tomorrow those same people (the one Cummings was hoping to use to win this election) may come out and vote.
If they do who do you think they will vote for - I suspect it won't be Boris after this campaign..
WHY WAS HE IN PUDSEY?!?!!? Wtf?! Are they scared they won't even get a majority?
Also in Guiseley, according to the BBC. Apparently on the same milk round ??
On resigning club, I’ve already ‘resigned’ from Crossrail (2 weeks ago, as it happens) and am leaving that client after nearly 5.5 years. I may do a day or so a week there next year, but I finish there full time at Christmas.
I’m working on a new client for 2020, which may amuse some of you when I reveal it but I can’t discuss it yet.
That means it’s either (a) fixed; or (b) unfixable
We should be told!
I’ve just had enough.
I wouldn’t expect it to open before Christmas 2021.
Crossrail is a project of national importance and like 90% of the country I don't even understand exactly what it is meant to do except make travelling around London easier. What is the problem ? I ask because by God we need to know for HS2, HS 3/4 and the whole Northern Powerhouse. Do you think the equivalent of your concerns are even being considered re the reassessment of HS2 ?
The business case for Crossrail is pretty sound. The mission statement is “keeping London moving” and you can see why that’s the case at rush hour, with the extensive queues and closures at Bank, Holborn, Victoria, Canary Wharf and Tottenham Court Road. The tube is at capacity and it’s becoming a choke on growth.
Crossrail will link the nation’s main airport with the West End (it’s primary retail and tourist zone) with the City and Canary Wharf (it’s primary business and financial districts). It will also make it much easier for commuters in the Thames Valley and Essex to access all those areas.
The net effect is to allow London to retain its status as a global and European hub, attracting more inward investment, greatly boosting jobs and tax revenue. This will help the Exchequer and the funding of public services.
Unfortunately, the political optics are poor as it looks like gold-plating London, but the RoR is at least 3:1.
HS2 is a bit more speculative (and nowhere near as well-run as Crossrail yet) but is a strategic piece of infrastructure aimed at changing the economic geography of the country. The West and East coast main lines are also approaching capacity and it takes an age to get to places like Leeds, and you can’t always find a seat.
So basically, Crossrail taps into and retains London as a global hub, together with Heathrow expansion, and HS2 taps in the rest of the country into that too and will act as a facilitator for further regional investment projects in the North.
Crossrail is a no brainer as is HS2 and loads of other rail infrastructure projects. Thank you for your service!
Not so sure about that. These issues are still fresh in the mind come tomorrow. Everyone has already forgotten that Boris bottled Andrew Neil.
Whether any of this negatively gains any traction is another thing.
I have to say if those running Boris' campaign planned to make him look like an absolute plonker in Uttoxeter and Pudsey then it is mission accomplished.
The last three days have been very poor for Boris and has shown his flaws
How this will impact at this late stage we will soon know
The Tories might not be too worried by the MRP from last night because it means their voters won't be complacent. If it had said 68 majority again that might have been a problem for the party.
Yes it is good news for us getting supporters to Chingford to knock up
Chingford is so close on the MRP that it's going to be the destination of choice for a big slice of the London Labour Party.
Whereas, they'd probably be better off playing defence in London.
How many Labour seats are at risk in London north of the river? Dagenham, that's probably it.
Kensington, fair comment. Whilst the MRP isn't everything, it has Hornsey as so safe that Labour isn't going to be sending people there. Southgate has Labour ahead 51% to 41%, which doesn't look vulnerable either.
Kensington is a pig to get to from most of East London, where Labour has masses of activists, and defeating IDS is far more fun. As said downthread, Chingford will be awash with Labour campaigners tomorrow.
"I suppose that I recognise the essential duality of man in him, and that conflict between the devil and the angel."
You can extend it to his politics. Marxism believes that if man is left to his own devices, he will naturally organise things well for the benefit of all mankind.
Only the nasty people - the Fascists, Tories, non-party members, and generally everyone but the 'enlightened' can stop them. That's why democracy is so bad unless the enlightened candidate are selected first.
It also means that the party members must sort out the wheat from the chaff. Anyone who isn't fully for them is definitely against them. I've no doubt Jezza and some of his colleagues mean well, but their certainty makes them dangerous.
One interesting epiphany about human nature I’ve had in the last 2-3 years is how total ignorance of the subject matter, or the facts, doesn’t stop people having very strong opinions on a subject, and telling you so as if it’s the truth.
People don’t really make decisions on logic or reason or on how informed they are, but by how something makes them feel.
As well as my betting strategy this has informed my decision-making in aspects of my professional life recently and I’ve been astonished at the results.
Do you mean you’ve been making decisions this way recently, or you’ve taken it more into account when analysing other people’s decision-making?
I saw this this morning and it's so good I've spent 5 minutes hunting my twitter feed for it
Serious (and perhaps quite important) question - the MRP results released last night showed a rather pronounced downward trend in the projected number of Tory seats over the last fortnight, but essentially no trend at all in the projected Tory percentage lead.
Does anyone understand - or has YouGov made any comment on - how these two findings can be reconciled?
Increased awareness of who you need to vote for to keep the Tories out in your seat resulting in increased tactical voting. A more efficient distribution of Labour and LibDem votes reduces the number of Tory seats.
It can't be that because they don't take account of local factors (and how would they know anyway; they use a panel approach).
They ask people how they might vote tactically. That's part of the mapping.
3 years means nothing this is a generational shift, we.re due one. All we are seeing is the death throes of the old order and as yet there new one hasn't emerged. The vote, as pointed out , was not just about the EU. The EU - unfairly - took the rap for a general discontent which politicans had been ignoring. Most of the discontent is on home grown issues which our politicans could have addressed but didn't. The EU ref was used as a chance to kick them in the nadgers to get their attention. It certainly did that.
And it's possible that tomorrow those same people (the one Cummings was hoping to use to win this election) may come out and vote.
If they do who do you think they will vote for - I suspect it won't be Boris after this campaign..
WHY WAS HE IN PUDSEY?!?!!? Wtf?! Are they scared they won't even get a majority?
Today Jo Swinson will be in Esher, Wimbledon and Guildford. At least she appears to know where she should be going!
...and I think those will all be in the bag for the yellows by Friday morning.
Even if it's disappointing overall, there's a good chance of seeing both Raab and IDS fall; even one would be a highlight to look forward to.
Labour and LD need to set up a vote exchange between Esher and Chingford asap!
Not so sure about that. These issues are still fresh in the mind come tomorrow. Everyone has already forgotten that Boris bottled Andrew Neil.
Whether any of this negatively gains any traction is another thing.
I have to say if those running Boris' campaign planned to make him look like an absolute plonker in Uttoxeter and Pudsey then it is mission accomplished.
The last three days have been very poor for Boris and has shown his flaws
How this will impact at this late stage we will soon know
Can someone whip up a quick comparison to show how the Scottish seats have moved from the last YouGov MRP. Clicking around there seem to have been some significant shifts.
3 years means nothing this is a generational shift, we.re due one. All we are seeing is the death throes of the old order and as yet there new one hasn't emerged. The vote, as pointed out , was not just about the EU. The EU - unfairly - took the rap for a general discontent which politicans had been ignoring. Most of the discontent is on home grown issues which our politicans could have addressed but didn't. The EU ref was used as a chance to kick them in the nadgers to get their attention. It certainly did that.
And it's possible that tomorrow those same people (the one Cummings was hoping to use to win this election) may come out and vote.
If they do who do you think they will vote for - I suspect it won't be Boris after this campaign..
WHY WAS HE IN PUDSEY?!?!!? Wtf?! Are they scared they won't even get a majority?
Today Jo Swinson will be in Esher, Wimbledon and Guildford. At least she appears to know where she should be going!
...and I think those will all be in the bag for the yellows by Friday morning.
Even if it's disappointing overall, there's a good chance of seeing both Raab and IDS fall; even one would be a highlight to look forward to.
Yes, I see the LD's in Esher are describing Raab falling as one of the now infamous "Portillo moments".
Not so sure about that. These issues are still fresh in the mind come tomorrow. Everyone has already forgotten that Boris bottled Andrew Neil.
Whether any of this negatively gains any traction is another thing.
I have to say if those running Boris' campaign planned to make him look like an absolute plonker in Uttoxeter and Pudsey then it is mission accomplished.
The last three days have been very poor for Boris and has shown his flaws
How this will impact at this late stage we will soon know
The Tories might not be too worried by the MRP from last night because it means their voters won't be complacent. If it had said 68 majority again that might have been a problem for the party.
Yes it is good news for us getting supporters to Chingford to knock up
Chingford is so close on the MRP that it's going to be the destination of choice for a big slice of the London Labour Party.
Whereas, they'd probably be better off playing defence in London.
How many Labour seats are at risk in London north of the river? Dagenham, that's probably it.
Kensington, fair comment. Whilst the MRP isn't everything, it has Hornsey as so safe that Labour isn't going to be sending people there. Southgate has Labour ahead 51% to 41%, which doesn't look vulnerable either.
Kensington is a pig to get to from most of East London, where Labour has masses of activists, and defeating IDS is far more fun. As said downthread, Chingford will be awash with Labour campaigners tomorrow.
The Tories might not be too worried by the MRP from last night because it means their voters won't be complacent. If it had said 68 majority again that might have been a problem for the party.
Yes it is good news for us getting supporters to Chingford to knock up
Chingford is so close on the MRP that it's going to be the destination of choice for a big slice of the London Labour Party.
Whereas, they'd probably be better off playing defence in London.
How many Labour seats are at risk in London north of the river? Dagenham, that's probably it.
Kensington, fair comment. Whilst the MRP isn't everything, it has Hornsey as so safe that Labour isn't going to be sending people there. Southgate has Labour ahead 51% to 41%, which doesn't look vulnerable either.
Kensington is a pig to get to from most of East London, where Labour has masses of activists, and defeating IDS is far more fun. As said downthread, Chingford will be awash with Labour campaigners tomorrow.
And plenty of Tory campaigners will be going there from South Essex too, myself included
The Tories might not be too worried by the MRP from last night because it means their voters won't be complacent. If it had said 68 majority again that might have been a problem for the party.
Yes it is good news for us getting supporters to Chingford to knock up
Please save your breath. Why on earth would you want the odious IDS back in parliament? The young girl that is the Labour candidate is PhD Oxford and has a great backstory. One for the future. IDS is a depressing throwback.
On resigning club, I’ve already ‘resigned’ from Crossrail (2 weeks ago, as it happens) and am leaving that client after nearly 5.5 years. I may do a day or so a week there next year, but I finish there full time at Christmas.
I’m working on a new client for 2020, which may amuse some of you when I reveal it but I can’t discuss it yet.
That means it’s either (a) fixed; or (b) unfixable
We should be told!
I’ve just had enough.
I wouldn’t expect it to open before Christmas 2021.
Crossrail is a project of national importance and like 90% of the country I don't even understand exactly what it is meant to do except make travelling around London easier. What is the problem ? I ask because by God we need to know for HS2, HS 3/4 and the whole Northern Powerhouse. Do you think the equivalent of your concerns are even being considered re the reassessment of HS2 ?
The business case for Crossrail is pretty sound. The mission statement is “keeping London moving” and you can see why that’s the case at rush hour, with the extensive queues and closures at Bank, Holborn, Victoria, Canary Wharf and Tottenham Court Road. The tube is at capacity and it’s becoming a choke on growth.
Crossrail will link the nation’s main airport with the West End (it’s primary retail and tourist zone) with the City and Canary Wharf (it’s primary business and financial districts). It will also make it much easier for commuters in the Thames Valley and Essex to access all those areas.
The net effect is to allow London to retain its status as a global and European hub, attracting more inward investment, greatly boosting jobs and tax revenue. This will help the Exchequer and the funding of public services.
Unfortunately, the political optics are poor as it looks like gold-plating London, but the RoR is at least 3:1.
HS2 is a bit more speculative (and nowhere near as well-run as Crossrail yet) but is a strategic piece of infrastructure aimed at changing the economic geography of the country. The West and East coast main lines are also approaching capacity and it takes an age to get to places like Leeds, and you can’t always find a seat.
So basically, Crossrail taps into and retains London as a global hub, together with Heathrow expansion, and HS2 taps in the rest of the country into that too and will act as a facilitator for further regional investment projects in the North.
Crossrail is a no brainer as is HS2 and loads of other rail infrastructure projects. Thank you for your service!
Serious (and perhaps quite important) question - the MRP results released last night showed a rather pronounced downward trend in the projected number of Tory seats over the last fortnight, but essentially no trend at all in the projected Tory percentage lead.
Does anyone understand - or has YouGov made any comment on - how these two findings can be reconciled?
Increased awareness of who you need to vote for to keep the Tories out in your seat resulting in increased tactical voting. A more efficient distribution of Labour and LibDem votes reduces the number of Tory seats.
I also think there's been some 'returning home' as polling day approaches, affecting both Tory remainers and Labour leavers, pressed by the dynamic of the election and less so now by Brexit, which inevitably drops down the agenda. Whilst the Tory share has held up overall, they are probably recovering southern remainers from the LibDems and losing northern leavers back to Labour. The former they can afford to lose, in modest numbers, whereas the latter they cannot.
Morning all Still sticking with my con 365, but the tentative YouGov evidence of a late shift, and quite a dramatic one, has me nervous for my prediction. Todays polls will obviously inform if there is further evidence of this or if it was a one off. The YouGov poll if we get one will be Instructive, if it's under an 8 or 9 lead then Johnson might have a problem
I believe the lead is already 8 in YouGov. One of their graphs showed the Tory lead over the period that they were collecting data, by the end of the data gathering period (10th) it was down to 8 and on a rather steep decline.
I'd expect it down to 6 by tomorrow unless crashing a JCB through foam bricks is as big a vote winner as CCHQ apparently believe it is.
The Tories might not be too worried by the MRP from last night because it means their voters won't be complacent. If it had said 68 majority again that might have been a problem for the party.
Yes it is good news for us getting supporters to Chingford to knock up
Please save your breath. Why on earth would you want the odious IDS back in parliament? The young girl that is the Labour candidate is PhD Oxford and has a great backstory. One for the future. IDS is a depressing throwback.
She is a Momentum backed hard left fanatic, IDS a good local MP who will get Brexit done
Not so sure about that. These issues are still fresh in the mind come tomorrow. Everyone has already forgotten that Boris bottled Andrew Neil.
Whether any of this negatively gains any traction is another thing.
I have to say if those running Boris' campaign planned to make him look like an absolute plonker in Uttoxeter and Pudsey then it is mission accomplished.
The last three days have been very poor for Boris and has shown his flaws
How this will impact at this late stage we will soon know
Autocorrect again! NEGATIVITY!
It is reality but who knows
I was helping you out with my appalling grammar. It genuinely is not my fault but being a technophobe is!
Anyway final analysis. A comfortable Johnson majority which he really doesn't deserve. Have a good day G.
The Tories might not be too worried by the MRP from last night because it means their voters won't be complacent. If it had said 68 majority again that might have been a problem for the party.
Yes it is good news for us getting supporters to Chingford to knock up
Please save your breath. Why on earth would you want the odious IDS back in parliament? The young girl that is the Labour candidate is PhD Oxford and has a great backstory. One for the future. IDS is a depressing throwback.
She is a Momentum backed hard left fanatic, IDS a good local MP who will get Brexit done
IDS isn't that bright. And a lot of people in Chingford want Brexit done for, not done.
The Tories might not be too worried by the MRP from last night because it means their voters won't be complacent. If it had said 68 majority again that might have been a problem for the party.
Yes it is good news for us getting supporters to Chingford to knock up
Chingford is so close on the MRP that it's going to be the destination of choice for a big slice of the London Labour Party.
Whereas, they'd probably be better off playing defence in London.
How many Labour seats are at risk in London north of the river? Dagenham, that's probably it.
Kensington, fair comment. Whilst the MRP isn't everything, it has Hornsey as so safe that Labour isn't going to be sending people there. Southgate has Labour ahead 51% to 41%, which doesn't look vulnerable either.
Kensington is a pig to get to from most of East London, where Labour has masses of activists, and defeating IDS is far more fun. As said downthread, Chingford will be awash with Labour campaigners tomorrow.
I can see it now: HY and his army of country-boy squirrel botherers in pitched battles in Epping Forest with a bunch of Hackney hippies!
From a betting point of view if you don’t think the Tories will get a majority the 5.3 on Tories under 317.5 seats represents much better value than NOM at 3.5 and there is only a small window of seats between the 2 which isn’t worth such a betting gap.
Tory 320 seats upwards probably gets Brexit done.
Interestingly Con majority moved in to 1.43 from as big as 1.49 last night.
The Tories might not be too worried by the MRP from last night because it means their voters won't be complacent. If it had said 68 majority again that might have been a problem for the party.
Yes it is good news for us getting supporters to Chingford to knock up
Chingford is so close on the MRP that it's going to be the destination of choice for a big slice of the London Labour Party.
Whereas, they'd probably be better off playing defence in London.
How many Labour seats are at risk in London north of the river? Dagenham, that's probably it.
Kensington, fair comment. Whilst the MRP isn't everything, it has Hornsey as so safe that Labour isn't going to be sending people there. Southgate has Labour ahead 51% to 41%, which doesn't look vulnerable either.
Kensington is a pig to get to from most of East London, where Labour has masses of activists, and defeating IDS is far more fun. As said downthread, Chingford will be awash with Labour campaigners tomorrow.
And plenty of Tory campaigners will be going there from South Essex too, myself included
Serious (and perhaps quite important) question - the MRP results released last night showed a rather pronounced downward trend in the projected number of Tory seats over the last fortnight, but essentially no trend at all in the projected Tory percentage lead.
Does anyone understand - or has YouGov made any comment on - how these two findings can be reconciled?
Increased awareness of who you need to vote for to keep the Tories out in your seat resulting in increased tactical voting. A more efficient distribution of Labour and LibDem votes reduces the number of Tory seats.
It can't be that because they don't take account of local factors (and how would they know anyway; they use a panel approach).
They ask people how they might vote tactically. That's part of the mapping.
I've done their surveys and they've never asked me that.
I also don't know how they model that differentially for each constituency; how would they know the threshold level at which an individual voter would decide to use their vote tactically? And how do they model whether or not an individual voter knows that the threshold level had been achieved?
The Tories might not be too worried by the MRP from last night because it means their voters won't be complacent. If it had said 68 majority again that might have been a problem for the party.
Yes it is good news for us getting supporters to Chingford to knock up
Chingford is so close on the MRP that it's going to be the destination of choice for a big slice of the London Labour Party.
Whereas, they'd probably be better off playing defence in London.
How many Labour seats are at risk in London north of the river? Dagenham, that's probably it.
Kensington, fair comment. Whilst the MRP isn't everything, it has Hornsey as so safe that Labour isn't going to be sending people there. Southgate has Labour ahead 51% to 41%, which doesn't look vulnerable either.
Kensington is a pig to get to from most of East London, where Labour has masses of activists, and defeating IDS is far more fun. As said downthread, Chingford will be awash with Labour campaigners tomorrow.
And plenty of Tory campaigners will be going there from South Essex too, myself included
Generalising, your vote is likely to turnout whether you go or not.
Not so sure about that. These issues are still fresh in the mind come tomorrow. Everyone has already forgotten that Boris bottled Andrew Neil.
Whether any of this negatively gains any traction is another thing.
I have to say if those running Boris' campaign planned to make him look like an absolute plonker in Uttoxeter and Pudsey then it is mission accomplished.
The last three days have been very poor for Boris and has shown his flaws
How this will impact at this late stage we will soon know
Autocorrect again! NEGATIVITY!
It is reality but who knows
I was helping you out with my appalling grammar. It genuinely is not my fault but being a technophobe is!
Anyway final analysis. A comfortable Johnson majority which he really doesn't deserve. Have a good day G.
Serious (and perhaps quite important) question - the MRP results released last night showed a rather pronounced downward trend in the projected number of Tory seats over the last fortnight, but essentially no trend at all in the projected Tory percentage lead.
Does anyone understand - or has YouGov made any comment on - how these two findings can be reconciled?
Increased awareness of who you need to vote for to keep the Tories out in your seat resulting in increased tactical voting. A more efficient distribution of Labour and LibDem votes reduces the number of Tory seats.
I also think there's been some 'returning home' as polling day approaches, affecting both Tory remainers and Labour leavers, pressed by the dynamic of the election and less so now by Brexit, which inevitably drops down the agenda. Whilst the Tory share has held up overall, they are probably recovering southern remainers from the LibDems and losing northern leavers back to Labour. The former they can afford to lose, in modest numbers, whereas the latter they cannot.
The Tories are still winning around 70% of Leavers, Labour less than 50% of Remainers
The Tories might not be too worried by the MRP from last night because it means their voters won't be complacent. If it had said 68 majority again that might have been a problem for the party.
Yes it is good news for us getting supporters to Chingford to knock up
Please save your breath. Why on earth would you want the odious IDS back in parliament? The young girl that is the Labour candidate is PhD Oxford and has a great backstory. One for the future. IDS is a depressing throwback.
She is a Momentum backed hard left fanatic, IDS a good local MP who will get Brexit done
There’s a nice video of on Guardian online. She seems sassy. Used to go clubbing down Charlie Chans and likes UK Garage. Propa Laarden chick.
The Tories might not be too worried by the MRP from last night because it means their voters won't be complacent. If it had said 68 majority again that might have been a problem for the party.
Yes it is good news for us getting supporters to Chingford to knock up
Chingford is so close on the MRP that it's going to be the destination of choice for a big slice of the London Labour Party.
Whereas, they'd probably be better off playing defence in London.
How many Labour seats are at risk in London north of the river? Dagenham, that's probably it.
Kensington, fair comment. Whilst the MRP isn't everything, it has Hornsey as so safe that Labour isn't going to be sending people there. Southgate has Labour ahead 51% to 41%, which doesn't look vulnerable either.
Kensington is a pig to get to from most of East London, where Labour has masses of activists, and defeating IDS is far more fun. As said downthread, Chingford will be awash with Labour campaigners tomorrow.
And plenty of Tory campaigners will be going there from South Essex too, myself included
You should be in Bolsover, slacker.
The Tories have the same lead in Bolsover as in Chingford with Yougov MRP
The Tories might not be too worried by the MRP from last night because it means their voters won't be complacent. If it had said 68 majority again that might have been a problem for the party.
Yes it is good news for us getting supporters to Chingford to knock up
Please save your breath. Why on earth would you want the odious IDS back in parliament? The young girl that is the Labour candidate is PhD Oxford and has a great backstory. One for the future. IDS is a depressing throwback.
She is a Momentum backed hard left fanatic, IDS a good local MP who will get Brexit done
Morning all Still sticking with my con 365, but the tentative YouGov evidence of a late shift, and quite a dramatic one, has me nervous for my prediction. Todays polls will obviously inform if there is further evidence of this or if it was a one off. The YouGov poll if we get one will be Instructive, if it's under an 8 or 9 lead then Johnson might have a problem
I believe the lead is already 8 in YouGov. One of their graphs showed the Tory lead over the period that they were collecting data, by the end of the data gathering period (10th) it was down to 8 and on a rather steep decline.
I'd expect it down to 6 by tomorrow unless crashing a JCB through foam bricks is as big a vote winner as CCHQ apparently believe it is.
WillS.
It ranged between 9-11%. A separate Yougov poll for 9th and 10th December also had 9%.
This seems very reminiscent of 1987. The Conservative lead remained steady at about 10% on average through the campaign, but there was a lot of excitement about tactical voting could bring about a hung Parliament.
One interesting epiphany about human nature I’ve had in the last 2-3 years is how total ignorance of the subject matter, or the facts, doesn’t stop people having very strong opinions on a subject, and telling you so as if it’s the truth.
People don’t really make decisions on logic or reason or on how informed they are, but by how something makes them feel.
As well as my betting strategy this has informed my decision-making in aspects of my professional life recently and I’ve been astonished at the results.
Do you mean you’ve been making decisions this way recently, or you’ve taken it more into account when analysing other people’s decision-making?
The latter.
I’m human, so not immune from it, but I am now aware of it.
Do you read Scott Adams? This is his key insight from analysing Trump? It’s the emotion, stupid.
Works here. Bojo is just too affable that he comes across as vacant. Jezza comes across as serious, without being totally humourless. Works for some,
Scott Adams is an eye-opener. I’ve long admired Dilbert (although I find it affects my mood poorly: after reading it is hard not to think that everyone at work is either an idiot or a scoundrel), but his astonishing insights into voter behaviour are counter-intuitive and valuable for political gamblers.
The Tories might not be too worried by the MRP from last night because it means their voters won't be complacent. If it had said 68 majority again that might have been a problem for the party.
Yes it is good news for us getting supporters to Chingford to knock up
Chingford is so close on the MRP that it's going to be the destination of choice for a big slice of the London Labour Party.
Whereas, they'd probably be better off playing defence in London.
How many Labour seats are at risk in London north of the river? Dagenham, that's probably it.
Kensington, fair comment. Whilst the MRP isn't everything, it has Hornsey as so safe that Labour isn't going to be sending people there. Southgate has Labour ahead 51% to 41%, which doesn't look vulnerable either.
Kensington is a pig to get to from most of East London, where Labour has masses of activists, and defeating IDS is far more fun. As said downthread, Chingford will be awash with Labour campaigners tomorrow.
And plenty of Tory campaigners will be going there from South Essex too, myself included
Labour sending patrol boats and border guards to the River Ching.
Serious (and perhaps quite important) question - the MRP results released last night showed a rather pronounced downward trend in the projected number of Tory seats over the last fortnight, but essentially no trend at all in the projected Tory percentage lead.
Does anyone understand - or has YouGov made any comment on - how these two findings can be reconciled?
Increased awareness of who you need to vote for to keep the Tories out in your seat resulting in increased tactical voting. A more efficient distribution of Labour and LibDem votes reduces the number of Tory seats.
I also think there's been some 'returning home' as polling day approaches, affecting both Tory remainers and Labour leavers, pressed by the dynamic of the election and less so now by Brexit, which inevitably drops down the agenda. Whilst the Tory share has held up overall, they are probably recovering southern remainers from the LibDems and losing northern leavers back to Labour. The former they can afford to lose, in modest numbers, whereas the latter they cannot.
The Tories are still winning around 70% of Leavers, Labour less than 50% of Remainers
Nevertheless between us Sandy and I have probably answered the OP's question. Yours is a characteristic non sequitur.
I think SLab are seeing a resurgence. They are going to poll 20%+ and that could well dent the SNP just like in 2017.
I am inspecting constituency bets.
I concur. Definite signs of SLab recovery. I think they would have held Kirkcaldy even without the SNP handing it to them on a plate. Now looking nervously at several other seats.
But why are they recovering? I don’t get it
Same as last time, left wing Yes voters who like Corbyn.
Look at the message Sturgeon put out in the wake of the poll. Labour are not strong enough to beat the Tories - a direct appeal to Labour voters to vote anti-Tory.
The Tories might not be too worried by the MRP from last night because it means their voters won't be complacent. If it had said 68 majority again that might have been a problem for the party.
Yes it is good news for us getting supporters to Chingford to knock up
Chingford is so close on the MRP that it's going to be the destination of choice for a big slice of the London Labour Party.
Whereas, they'd probably be better off playing defence in London.
How many Labour seats are at risk in London north of the river? Dagenham, that's probably it.
Kensington, fair comment. Whilst the MRP isn't everything, it has Hornsey as so safe that Labour isn't going to be sending people there. Southgate has Labour ahead 51% to 41%, which doesn't look vulnerable either.
Kensington is a pig to get to from most of East London, where Labour has masses of activists, and defeating IDS is far more fun. As said downthread, Chingford will be awash with Labour campaigners tomorrow.
Enfield Southgate is one seat where I think it could be closer than expected between Lab and Con. Just a hunch.
One interesting epiphany about human nature I’ve had in the last 2-3 years is how total ignorance of the subject matter, or the facts, doesn’t stop people having very strong opinions on a subject, and telling you so as if it’s the truth.
People don’t really make decisions on logic or reason or on how informed they are, but by how something makes them feel.
As well as my betting strategy this has informed my decision-making in aspects of my professional life recently and I’ve been astonished at the results.
Do you mean you’ve been making decisions this way recently, or you’ve taken it more into account when analysing other people’s decision-making?
The latter.
I’m human, so not immune from it, but I am now aware of it.
Do you read Scott Adams? This is his key insight from analysing Trump? It’s the emotion, stupid.
Works here. Bojo is just too affable that he comes across as vacant. Jezza comes across as serious, without being totally humourless. Works for some,
Scott Adams is an eye-opener. I’ve long admired Dilbert (although I find it affects my mood poorly: after reading it is hard not to think that everyone at work is either an idiot or a scoundrel), but his astonishing insights into voter behaviour are counter-intuitive and valuable for political gamblers.
Scott Adams said McCain would win.
Scott Adams backed Romney because he didn't like Obama's stance of drug reform (as in he thought Obama was too strict on drugs)
Scott Adams stated about 5 different positions on what he though would happen in 2016.
Scott Adams is an absolute charlatan who'll say anything for attention and has often taken opposite positions at different points and then claimed that he backed the winning side as evidence of his brilliance. HE even lampshades it by pointing out he also adopted the other position as well.
The Tories might not be too worried by the MRP from last night because it means their voters won't be complacent. If it had said 68 majority again that might have been a problem for the party.
Yes it is good news for us getting supporters to Chingford to knock up
Please save your breath. Why on earth would you want the odious IDS back in parliament? The young girl that is the Labour candidate is PhD Oxford and has a great backstory. One for the future. IDS is a depressing throwback.
She is a Momentum backed hard left fanatic, IDS a good local MP who will get Brexit done
The Tories might not be too worried by the MRP from last night because it means their voters won't be complacent. If it had said 68 majority again that might have been a problem for the party.
Yes it is good news for us getting supporters to Chingford to knock up
Chingford is so close on the MRP that it's going to be the destination of choice for a big slice of the London Labour Party.
Whereas, they'd probably be better off playing defence in London.
How many Labour seats are at risk in London north of the river? Dagenham, that's probably it.
Kensington, fair comment. Whilst the MRP isn't everything, it has Hornsey as so safe that Labour isn't going to be sending people there. Southgate has Labour ahead 51% to 41%, which doesn't look vulnerable either.
Kensington is a pig to get to from most of East London, where Labour has masses of activists, and defeating IDS is far more fun. As said downthread, Chingford will be awash with Labour campaigners tomorrow.
Enfield Southgate is one seat where I think it could be closer than expected between Lab and Con. Just a hunch.
Plenty of Burrowes posters when I was there Sunday
Serious (and perhaps quite important) question - the MRP results released last night showed a rather pronounced downward trend in the projected number of Tory seats over the last fortnight, but essentially no trend at all in the projected Tory percentage lead.
Does anyone understand - or has YouGov made any comment on - how these two findings can be reconciled?
Increased awareness of who you need to vote for to keep the Tories out in your seat resulting in increased tactical voting. A more efficient distribution of Labour and LibDem votes reduces the number of Tory seats.
It can't be that because they don't take account of local factors (and how would they know anyway; they use a panel approach).
They ask people how they might vote tactically. That's part of the mapping.
I've done their surveys and they've never asked me that.
That's interesting because I have during this campaign. Hmmm.
The Tories might not be too worried by the MRP from last night because it means their voters won't be complacent. If it had said 68 majority again that might have been a problem for the party.
Yes it is good news for us getting supporters to Chingford to knock up
Please save your breath. Why on earth would you want the odious IDS back in parliament? The young girl that is the Labour candidate is PhD Oxford and has a great backstory. One for the future. IDS is a depressing throwback.
She is a Momentum backed hard left fanatic, IDS a good local MP who will get Brexit done
Imagine a Corbyn government. Unemployment up. Tax intake and investment down. Benefit payments sky rocket. Economy death spiral. How much money will they have for our beloved NHS?
Jeremy Corbyn: has he just recovered from some illness or is he botoxed up to the gills? He suddenly looks ten years younger, or at least two years back to 2017.
I think he really enjoys campaigning..
Yes, campaigning is the bit of politics that he most enjoys, and indeed advocacy for constituents down on their luck. It is the stuff in Parliament that he finds less interesting, the opposite to most MPs.
You make him sound almost appealing, and then one has to remember anti-Semitism, terrorist sympathy and neo-Marxist Venezuelan economics.
I seem to be a bit unusual, in that I am fairly neutral on Corbyn. I think his economics are bonkers and his obsession with Israel and Palestine repulsive, but he is genuinely compassionate and his humble personal eccentricities with jam and allotment a charming English eccentricity.
I suppose that I recognise the essential duality of man in him, and that conflict between the devil and the angel.
I wonder if the obsession with Israel and Palestine is really Corbyn's or if it is in fact our own obsession - I once tried to find out how often he has criticised Israel compared to Saudi Arabia, and it seemed to be comparable. The difference being other people gave a lot more publicity to his criticism of Israel than of Saudi Arabia. I do think his principled hostility to Israeli policy in the occupied territories (and his resistance to going along with the push to conflate any criticism of Israel with anti-semitism) has created both a stupid willingness to give the benefit of the doubt to unprincipled critics of Israel, and a massive avoidable political problem for him and Labour. I think Corbyn is a pretty crap politician, and it's a tragedy to have a fairly rubbish Labour leader at this time. I'd still choose Corbyn over Johnson as PM without a moment's hesitation.
I disagree that equal criticism of Saudi Arabia and Israel is a measure of even-handedness. One is a cruel autocratic theocratic state that turns a blind eye to global funding of wahabi-ist extremesim, the other is far and away the strongest democracy and most liberal state in the region besieged on all sides by well funded terrorists and hostile state actors.
I think equal criticism in these circumstances is a clear sign of...well we can let the EHRC decide.
Also, for some reason, Labour activists don't use Corbyn's criticisms of Saudi Arabia as an excuse to accuse Muslim MPs of dual loyalties and then hound them out of the party.
One interesting epiphany about human nature I’ve had in the last 2-3 years is how total ignorance of the subject matter, or the facts, doesn’t stop people having very strong opinions on a subject, and telling you so as if it’s the truth.
People don’t really make decisions on logic or reason or on how informed they are, but by how something makes them feel.
As well as my betting strategy this has informed my decision-making in aspects of my professional life recently and I’ve been astonished at the results.
Do you mean you’ve been making decisions this way recently, or you’ve taken it more into account when analysing other people’s decision-making?
The latter.
I’m human, so not immune from it, but I am now aware of it.
Do you read Scott Adams? This is his key insight from analysing Trump? It’s the emotion, stupid.
Works here. Bojo is just too affable that he comes across as vacant. Jezza comes across as serious, without being totally humourless. Works for some,
Scott Adams is an eye-opener. I’ve long admired Dilbert (although I find it affects my mood poorly: after reading it is hard not to think that everyone at work is either an idiot or a scoundrel), but his astonishing insights into voter behaviour are counter-intuitive and valuable for political gamblers.
Scott Adams said McCain would win.
Scott Adams backed Romney because he didn't like Obama's stance of drug reform (as in he thought Obama was too strict on drugs)
Scott Adams stated about 5 different positions on what he though would happen in 2016.
Scott Adams is an absolute charlatan who'll say anything for attention and has often taken opposite positions at different points and then claimed that he backed the winning side as evidence of his brilliance. HE even lampshades it by pointing out he also adopted the other position as well.
Serious (and perhaps quite important) question - the MRP results released last night showed a rather pronounced downward trend in the projected number of Tory seats over the last fortnight, but essentially no trend at all in the projected Tory percentage lead.
Does anyone understand - or has YouGov made any comment on - how these two findings can be reconciled?
Increased awareness of who you need to vote for to keep the Tories out in your seat resulting in increased tactical voting. A more efficient distribution of Labour and LibDem votes reduces the number of Tory seats.
It can't be that because they don't take account of local factors (and how would they know anyway; they use a panel approach).
They ask people how they might vote tactically. That's part of the mapping.
I've done their surveys and they've never asked me that.
I also don't know how they model that differentially for each constituency; how would they know the threshold level at which an individual voter would decide to use their vote tactically? And how do they model whether or not an individual voter knows that the threshold level had been achieved?
We don't of course know. It's possible they could create a national model of willingness/likelihood to vote tactically, by both VI and demographic, and then tweak their individual seat results accordingly. Certainly the LibDem MRP projection has improved in a lot of Tory facing southern seats, but there is still the overall commentary from YouGov that their model is weak at picking up seat-specific campaigning. It would be nice to believe there is a level of tactical voting that the model hasn't detected, but I do remember suggesting something similar in 2017, and it didn't come good, for the LDs at least.
Imagine a Corbyn government. Unemployment up. Tax intake and investment down. Benefit payments sky rocket. Economy death spiral. How much money will they have for our beloved NHS?
A similar amount to that which Boris has at his disposal after no deal Brexit in December 2020. In other words, zip!
The Tories might not be too worried by the MRP from last night because it means their voters won't be complacent. If it had said 68 majority again that might have been a problem for the party.
Yes it is good news for us getting supporters to Chingford to knock up
Chingford is so close on the MRP that it's going to be the destination of choice for a big slice of the London Labour Party.
Whereas, they'd probably be better off playing defence in London.
How many Labour seats are at risk in London north of the river? Dagenham, that's probably it.
Kensington, fair comment. Whilst the MRP isn't everything, it has Hornsey as so safe that Labour isn't going to be sending people there. Southgate has Labour ahead 51% to 41%, which doesn't look vulnerable either.
Kensington is a pig to get to from most of East London, where Labour has masses of activists, and defeating IDS is far more fun. As said downthread, Chingford will be awash with Labour campaigners tomorrow.
Enfield Southgate is one seat where I think it could be closer than expected between Lab and Con. Just a hunch.
What's your prediction now please Andy?
I want a Tory majority but I think Boris has been poor this campaign and I'm nervous he's blown it. I think part of Boris's appeal is his willingness to speak his mind and be affably daft but they've gagged him and he now looks a bit of a stuttering idiot.
I still think it'll be a Tory majority but perhaps as small as 15.
The Tories might not be too worried by the MRP from last night because it means their voters won't be complacent. If it had said 68 majority again that might have been a problem for the party.
Yes it is good news for us getting supporters to Chingford to knock up
Chingford is so close on the MRP that it's going to be the destination of choice for a big slice of the London Labour Party.
Whereas, they'd probably be better off playing defence in London.
How many Labour seats are at risk in London north of the river? Dagenham, that's probably it.
Kensington, fair comment. Whilst the MRP isn't everything, it has Hornsey as so safe that Labour isn't going to be sending people there. Southgate has Labour ahead 51% to 41%, which doesn't look vulnerable either.
Kensington is a pig to get to from most of East London, where Labour has masses of activists, and defeating IDS is far more fun. As said downthread, Chingford will be awash with Labour campaigners tomorrow.
Enfield Southgate is one seat where I think it could be closer than expected between Lab and Con. Just a hunch.
What's your prediction now please Andy?
I want a Tory majority but I think Boris has been poor this campaign and I'm nervous he's blown it. I think part of Boris's appeal is his willingness to speak his mind and be affably daft but they've gagged him and he now looks a bit of a stuttering idiot.
I still think it'll be a Tory majority but perhaps as small as 15.
Trouble is, he looked the same when he spoke his mind.
Morning all Still sticking with my con 365, but the tentative YouGov evidence of a late shift, and quite a dramatic one, has me nervous for my prediction. Todays polls will obviously inform if there is further evidence of this or if it was a one off. The YouGov poll if we get one will be Instructive, if it's under an 8 or 9 lead then Johnson might have a problem
I believe the lead is already 8 in YouGov. One of their graphs showed the Tory lead over the period that they were collecting data, by the end of the data gathering period (10th) it was down to 8 and on a rather steep decline.
I'd expect it down to 6 by tomorrow unless crashing a JCB through foam bricks is as big a vote winner as CCHQ apparently believe it is.
WillS.
It ranged between 9-11%. A separate Yougov poll for 9th and 10th December also had 9%.
This seems very reminiscent of 1987. The Conservative lead remained steady at about 10% on average through the campaign, but there was a lot of excitement about tactical voting could bring about a hung Parliament.
But, the BXP standing down in Tory held seats and not elsewhere exaggerates the potency of that lead in Tory targets.
Imagine a Corbyn government. Unemployment up. Tax intake and investment down. Benefit payments sky rocket. Economy death spiral. How much money will they have for our beloved NHS?
One thing is clear: the NHS will be even worse off under Corbyn because their fiscal plans will lead to a debt crisis for the UK, take us to the edge of bankruptcy and then require drastic cuts to get bailout funding.
What is important now is the Labour vote. The Tories look rock solid at the 43% Theresa got, Labour are probably in the 33-35 range but need to be in the 36-38 range with 1 day to go. Winning back Tory switchers in the North and Midlands looks tough work with their 2nd ref policy, the new voters are concentrated in seats they hold, the Lib Dems are squeezed as much as they can be in the marginals. On paper it looks an incredibly tough task.
If Labour cannot win round those extra voters today then it will be a Con majority and a disaster for Corbyn in an election Labour would have surely been the largest party under a half decent leader.
The Tories might not be too worried by the MRP from last night because it means their voters won't be complacent. If it had said 68 majority again that might have been a problem for the party.
Yes it is good news for us getting supporters to Chingford to knock up
Please save your breath. Why on earth would you want the odious IDS back in parliament? The young girl that is the Labour candidate is PhD Oxford and has a great backstory. One for the future. IDS is a depressing throwback.
She is a Momentum backed hard left fanatic, IDS a good local MP who will get Brexit done
And what makes a PhD from oxford somebody who can relate to the working class?
Jeremy Corbyn: has he just recovered from some illness or is he botoxed up to the gills? He suddenly looks ten years younger, or at least two years back to 2017.
I think he really enjoys campaigning..
Yes, campaigning is the bit of politics that he most enjoys, and indeed advocacy for constituents down on their luck. It is the stuff in Parliament that he finds less interesting, the opposite to most MPs.
You make him sound almost appealing, and then one has to remember anti-Semitism, terrorist sympathy and neo-Marxist Venezuelan economics.
I seem to be a bit unusual, in that I am fairly neutral on Corbyn. I think his economics are bonkers and his obsession with Israel and Palestine repulsive, but he is genuinely compassionate and his humble personal eccentricities with jam and allotment a charming English eccentricity.
I suppose that I recognise the essential duality of man in him, and that conflict between the devil and the angel.
I wonder if the obsession with Israel and Palestine is really Corbyn's or if it is in fact our own obsession - I once tried to find out how often he has criticised Israel compared to Saudi Arabia, and it seemed to be comparable. The difference being other people gave a lot more publicity to his criticism of Israel than of Saudi Arabia. I do think his principled hostility to Israeli policy in the occupied territories (and his resistance to going along with the push to conflate any criticism of Israel with anti-semitism) has created both a stupid willingness to give the benefit of the doubt to unprincipled critics of Israel, and a massive avoidable political problem for him and Labour. I think Corbyn is a pretty crap politician, and it's a tragedy to have a fairly rubbish Labour leader at this time. I'd still choose Corbyn over Johnson as PM without a moment's hesitation.
I disagree that equal criticism of Saudi Arabia and Israel is a measure of even-handedness. One is a cruel autocratic theocratic state that turns a blind eye to global funding of wahabi-ist extremesim, the other is far and away the strongest democracy and most liberal state in the region besieged on all sides by well funded terrorists and hostile state actors.
I think equal criticism in these circumstances is a clear sign of...well we can let the EHRC decide.
well, yes, I should have specified criticism of their foreign policies, and in terms of UK policy whether we should be selling weapons to countries that bomb civilians. plus I was questioning who has the obsession with Israel/Palestine - not whether there is or should be evenhandedness.
The Tories might not be too worried by the MRP from last night because it means their voters won't be complacent. If it had said 68 majority again that might have been a problem for the party.
Yes it is good news for us getting supporters to Chingford to knock up
Chingford is so close on the MRP that it's going to be the destination of choice for a big slice of the London Labour Party.
Definitely time for another Portillo moment.
Dr Phil Hammond, who lives in NE Somerset, has wanted to stand against and defeat Mogg for ~3 years. He'd probably stand as an Independent. A pity that no party agreed with him ...
This problem of split anti-Tory votes at a crucial election works all ways. In Stroud, the Green candidate Molly Scott-Cato has annoyed people by standing in a marginal seat with a pro-EU Labour MP. She's already got a very well-paid job as an (excellent) MEP.
Molly Scott Cato is also possibly the most flaky candidate in the GE, even including Lord Buckethead. I am aware of her academic background but that does not excuse articles such as that from The Ecologist in 2009; https://theecologist.org/2009/sep/15/what-would-green-health-system-look.
All the Con/SNP marginals seem to have shifted in the SNP's favour.
As I say, a knife edge. As likely SCons end up on 15 seats as they end up on 4.
That's the problem with this GE. Same for a lot of marginals in midlands and north.
Too many factors are in play. I suspect the first time people will know whats really going on is at 2am on Friday morning as the bulk of the results start to arrive.
Morning all Still sticking with my con 365, but the tentative YouGov evidence of a late shift, and quite a dramatic one, has me nervous for my prediction. Todays polls will obviously inform if there is further evidence of this or if it was a one off. The YouGov poll if we get one will be Instructive, if it's under an 8 or 9 lead then Johnson might have a problem
I believe the lead is already 8 in YouGov. One of their graphs showed the Tory lead over the period that they were collecting data, by the end of the data gathering period (10th) it was down to 8 and on a rather steep decline.
I'd expect it down to 6 by tomorrow unless crashing a JCB through foam bricks is as big a vote winner as CCHQ apparently believe it is.
WillS.
It ranged between 9-11%. A separate Yougov poll for 9th and 10th December also had 9%.
This seems very reminiscent of 1987. The Conservative lead remained steady at about 10% on average through the campaign, but there was a lot of excitement about tactical voting could bring about a hung Parliament.
But, the BXP standing down in Tory held seats and not elsewhere exaggerates the potency of that lead in Tory targets.
But there was no BXP 2 years ago and there appears to be a small shift away from The Tories in Labour seats they can’t win, very little change in safe Tory seats and an improvement in marginals across Wales and the North. A 9 point lead could easily be a majority of 50 rather than 30.
3 years means nothing this is a generational shift, we.re due one. All we are seeing is the death throes of the old order and as yet there new one hasn't emerged. The vote, as pointed out , was not just about the EU. The EU - unfairly - took the rap for a general discontent which politicans had been ignoring. Most of the discontent is on home grown issues which our politicans could have addressed but didn't. The EU ref was used as a chance to kick them in the nadgers to get their attention. It certainly did that.
And it's possible that tomorrow those same people (the one Cummings was hoping to use to win this election) may come out and vote.
If they do who do you think they will vote for - I suspect it won't be Boris after this campaign..
WHY WAS HE IN PUDSEY?!?!!? Wtf?! Are they scared they won't even get a majority?
Also in Guiseley, according to the BBC. Apparently on the same milk round ??
From a betting point of view if you don’t think the Tories will get a majority the 5.3 on Tories under 317.5 seats represents much better value than NOM at 3.5 and there is only a small window of seats between the 2 which isn’t worth such a betting gap.
Tory 320 seats upwards probably gets Brexit done.
Interestingly Con majority moved in to 1.43 from as big as 1.49 last night.
As a saver 9/1 310-319 tory seats and 14/1 300-309 looks good value..gives a combined 6.75/1 for 300-319 with Sky bet
Yougov's MRP reflects that FT article. The Panelbase MRP doesn't.
And the important bit there is the last bit from the Labour Candidate. This election is very much all or nothing - if the Labour vote actually votes it's likely to be a hung Parliament if not it could be a Tory landslide.
3 years means nothing this is a generational shift, we.re due one. All we are seeing is the death throes of the old order and as yet there new one hasn't emerged. The vote, as pointed out , was not just about the EU. The EU - unfairly - took the rap for a general discontent which politicans had been ignoring. Most of the discontent is on home grown issues which our politicans could have addressed but didn't. The EU ref was used as a chance to kick them in the nadgers to get their attention. It certainly did that.
And it's possible that tomorrow those same people (the one Cummings was hoping to use to win this election) may come out and vote.
If they do who do you think they will vote for - I suspect it won't be Boris after this campaign..
WHY WAS HE IN PUDSEY?!?!!? Wtf?! Are they scared they won't even get a majority?
Today Jo Swinson will be in Esher, Wimbledon and Guildford. At least she appears to know where she should be going!
...and I think those will all be in the bag for the yellows by Friday morning.
Even if it's disappointing overall, there's a good chance of seeing both Raab and IDS fall; even one would be a highlight to look forward to.
Yes, I see the LD's in Esher are describing Raab falling as one of the now infamous "Portillo moments".
And Redwood does not look much safer in Wokingham on MRP. I would be stunned if he lost but if Raab is vulnerable then so may be Redwood.
Imagine a Corbyn government. Unemployment up. Tax intake and investment down. Benefit payments sky rocket. Economy death spiral. How much money will they have for our beloved NHS?
One thing is clear: the NHS will be even worse off under Corbyn because their fiscal plans will lead to a debt crisis for the UK, take us to the edge of bankruptcy and then require drastic cuts to get bailout funding.
Realistically a Corbyn government that we might get this time around will last about 6-9 months and have broadly the same spending injection as the Tories are promising.
Talk of us getting bankrupt in that timescale is absurd hyperbole. Yes ongoing unfettered Corbyn would lead us to that, but the choice is between 5 years of Johnson or less than a year of moderated Corbyn.
3 years means nothing this is a generational shift, we.re due one. All we are seeing is the death throes of the old order and as yet there new one hasn't emerged. The vote, as pointed out , was not just about the EU. The EU - unfairly - took the rap for a general discontent which politicans had been ignoring. Most of the discontent is on home grown issues which
From a betting point of view if you don’t think the Tories will get a majority the 5.3 on Tories under 317.5 seats represents much better value than NOM at 3.5 and there is only a small window of seats between the 2 which isn’t worth such a betting gap.
Tory 320 seats upwards probably gets Brexit done.
Interestingly Con majority moved in to 1.43 from as big as 1.49 last night.
As a saver 9/1 310-319 tory seats and 14/1 300-309 looks good value..gives a combined 6.75/1 for 300-319 with Sky bet
I will have some of that. I think sub 310 is next to impossible unless the Lab vote is 40% but that 9/1 is good on 310-319 which is probably the worst ‘realistic’ result for the Tories.
3 years means nothing this is a generational shift, we.re due one. All we are seeing is the death throes of the old order and as yet there new one hasn't emerged. The vote, as pointed out , was not just about the EU. The EU - unfairly - took the rap for a general discontent which politicans had been ignoring. Most of the discontent is on home grown issues which our politicans could have addressed but didn't. The EU ref was used as a chance to kick them in the nadgers to get their attention. It certainly did that.
And it's possible that tomorrow those same people (the one Cummings was hoping to use to win this election) may come out and vote.
If they do who do you think they will vote for - I suspect it won't be Boris after this campaign..
WHY WAS HE IN PUDSEY?!?!!? Wtf?! Are they scared they won't even get a majority?
Also in Guiseley, according to the BBC. Apparently on the same milk round ??
Comments
Err... Err...um.... WHO FUNDS YOU?!
(Yep, that’ll do it)”
I do think his principled hostility to Israeli policy in the occupied territories (and his resistance to going along with the push to conflate any criticism of Israel with anti-semitism) has created both a stupid willingness to give the benefit of the doubt to unprincipled critics of Israel, and a massive avoidable political problem for him and Labour. I think Corbyn is a pretty crap politician, and it's a tragedy to have a fairly rubbish Labour leader at this time.
I'd still choose Corbyn over Johnson as PM without a moment's hesitation.
Look at the message Sturgeon put out in the wake of the poll. Labour are not strong enough to beat the Tories - a direct appeal to Labour voters to vote anti-Tory.
Everything is on a knife edge in Scotland.
https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/1204535337021792258?s=19
I’m human, so not immune from it, but I am now aware of it.
Still sticking with my con 365, but the tentative YouGov evidence of a late shift, and quite a dramatic one, has me nervous for my prediction. Todays polls will obviously inform if there is further evidence of this or if it was a one off. The YouGov poll if we get one will be Instructive, if it's under an 8 or 9 lead then Johnson might have a problem
Whether any of this negatively gains any traction is another thing.
I have to say if those running Boris' campaign planned to make him look like an absolute plonker in Uttoxeter and Pudsey then it is mission accomplished.
Dr Phil Hammond, who lives in NE Somerset, has wanted to stand against and defeat Mogg for ~3 years. He'd probably stand as an Independent. A pity that no party agreed with him ...
This problem of split anti-Tory votes at a crucial election works all ways. In Stroud, the Green candidate Molly Scott-Cato has annoyed people by standing in a marginal seat with a pro-EU Labour MP. She's already got a very well-paid job as an (excellent) MEP.
Nah.
The explanation is simpler, sinister and predictable. Nothing to do with left/right/centre or Yes/No or party leaders.
Works here. Bojo is just too affable that he comes across as vacant. Jezza comes across as serious, without being totally humourless. Works for some,
I think equal criticism in these circumstances is a clear sign of...well we can let the EHRC decide.
Apparently on the same milk round ??
How this will impact at this late stage we will soon know
Kensington is a pig to get to from most of East London, where Labour has masses of activists, and defeating IDS is far more fun. As said downthread, Chingford will be awash with Labour campaigners tomorrow.
"I suppose that I recognise the essential duality of man in him, and that conflict between the devil and the angel."
You can extend it to his politics. Marxism believes that if man is left to his own devices, he will naturally organise things well for the benefit of all mankind.
Only the nasty people - the Fascists, Tories, non-party members, and generally everyone but the 'enlightened' can stop them. That's why democracy is so bad unless the enlightened candidate are selected first.
It also means that the party members must sort out the wheat from the chaff. Anyone who isn't fully for them is definitely against them. I've no doubt Jezza and some of his colleagues mean well, but their certainty makes them dangerous.
Better a lying buffoon than a Corbyn.
https://twitter.com/cafernblue/status/1204492897002958849
Labour and LD need to set up a vote exchange between Esher and Chingford asap!
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-50739203
I'd expect it down to 6 by tomorrow unless crashing a JCB through foam bricks is as big a vote winner as CCHQ apparently believe it is.
WillS.
Anyway final analysis. A comfortable Johnson majority which he really doesn't deserve. Have a good day G.
Tory 320 seats upwards probably gets Brexit done.
Interestingly Con majority moved in to 1.43 from as big as 1.49 last night.
I also don't know how they model that differentially for each constituency; how would they know the threshold level at which an individual voter would decide to use their vote tactically? And how do they model whether or not an individual voter knows that the threshold level had been achieved?
This seems very reminiscent of 1987. The Conservative lead remained steady at about 10% on average through the campaign, but there was a lot of excitement about tactical voting could bring about a hung Parliament.
The weather's set fair so far today here, too.
Again.
Scott Adams backed Romney because he didn't like Obama's stance of drug reform (as in he thought Obama was too strict on drugs)
Scott Adams stated about 5 different positions on what he though would happen in 2016.
Scott Adams is an absolute charlatan who'll say anything for attention and has often taken opposite positions at different points and then claimed that he backed the winning side as evidence of his brilliance. HE even lampshades it by pointing out he also adopted the other position as well.
Unemployment up.
Tax intake and investment down.
Benefit payments sky rocket.
Economy death spiral.
How much money will they have for our beloved NHS?
I want a Tory majority but I think Boris has been poor this campaign and I'm nervous he's blown it. I think part of Boris's appeal is his willingness to speak his mind and be affably daft but they've gagged him and he now looks a bit of a stuttering idiot.
I still think it'll be a Tory majority but perhaps as small as 15.
LD: 34 SNP: 34
Ed WEst in Yesterday's MRP
LD:41 SNP: 30
Lots of highly significant changes like that in Scotland. Maybe I will win my Ed West bet after all.
As I say, a knife edge. As likely SCons end up on 15 seats as they end up on 4.
If Labour cannot win round those extra voters today then it will be a Con majority and a disaster for Corbyn in an election Labour would have surely been the largest party under a half decent leader.
Whats going on with Glasgow and the Labour resurgence there ? Seems err odd.
https://twitter.com/TheScotsman/status/1204681563021234177?s=20
well, yes, I should have specified criticism of their foreign policies, and in terms of UK policy whether we should be selling weapons to countries that bomb civilians.
plus I was questioning who has the obsession with Israel/Palestine - not whether there is or should be evenhandedness.
https://mobile.twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1204686262927601664
Hmmm this is very different from the MRP
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1LfRjAazZUbSjAOQ0w_ctAPWKfi5hBKilNj0LvuIZp9U/edit#gid=0
Or is this a classic Dom move. The crucial "in favour of hiding in a fridge" demographic being actives this morning?
And the important bit there is the last bit from the Labour Candidate. This election is very much all or nothing - if the Labour vote actually votes it's likely to be a hung Parliament if not it could be a Tory landslide.
Talk of us getting bankrupt in that timescale is absurd hyperbole. Yes ongoing unfettered Corbyn would lead us to that, but the choice is between 5 years of Johnson or less than a year of moderated Corbyn.
https://twitter.com/TamsellicsonIII/status/1204519519760396294?s=20